176
FXUS64 KEPZ 160522
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1022 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1002 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIXED
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. MINIMAL WEATHER HAZARDS.
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY,
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER SIXTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DESERT SW. WHILE SAID
REX BLOCK PATTERN LINGERS OFF THE WEST COAST, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEFORE INFRINGING ON FAR WEST
TX AND SOUTHERN NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL BE SUBTLE AS IT GETS HUNG UP AND SLOWED BY THE CENTRAL NM
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST BEHIND FROPA WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY.
BY THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME, ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
START BUILDING OVER SW AZ AND SE CA WITH IT'S FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY
NOSING IN OVER WESTERN NM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ON MONDAY ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE RGV. THEREAFTER (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY), GUIDANCE BECOMES
UNCERTAIN AS IT TRIES TO TRACK THE EAST PROGRESSION OF A UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT ORIGINATES OVER BAJA. IN SHORT, GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER
MOISTURE AND LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE
THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER
SOUTH. NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT
SAID, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC WITH ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FEW250. WINDS LIGHT AT 3-6 KNOTS AND GENERALLY VRB
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOMING NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
A BLOCKING PATTERN TO OUR WEST WILL GENERATE MODERATED CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW DRYING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL MINRH FAVORING THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY AND
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, TEMPERING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CRITICAL MINRH WILL PERSIST TO A LESSER EXTENT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING EAST ACROSS
MEXICO WILL INJECT MOISTURE INTO THE BORDERLAND BY WEDNESDAY,
FORCING HUMIDITY WELL INTO THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT RANGE.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON IF THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL FAR ENOUGH NORTH
TO OFFER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SCOUR
OUT PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE EJECTION OF THE SYSTEM,
BRINGING LOCALIZED CRITICAL VALUES BACK TO THE SACRAMENTO
HIGHLANDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 36 64 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 58 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 61 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 31 61 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 43 23 36 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 62 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 33 61 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 30 66 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 63 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 37 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 59 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 32 65 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 57 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 31 65 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 62 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 38 63 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 27 62 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 66 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 34 64 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 60 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 30 53 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 28 55 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 28 51 22 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 59 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 34 63 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 28 62 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 61 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 62 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 66 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 63 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 33 64 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 30 63 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 33 65 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 39 62 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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