685
FXUS64 KEPZ 271140
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
540 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
- MOISTURE PULLED UP FROM TROPICAL REMNANTS IN NORTHERN MEXICO
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT WEEKS.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE MONSOON SEASON
COMES TO A RAPID END.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
FOR SUNDAY, DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE-SEPTEMBER, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID-80S. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE A PRECURSOR TO THE
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION COMING OUR WAY.
TWO WEATHER FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST TO OUR NORTH, AND
HURRICANE POLO SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO OUR SOUTH.
TROPICAL STEERING PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR POLO TO DRIFT NORTH
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA NEXT FEW DAYS, EVENTUALLY LATCHING ONTO THE
STRONGER MID-LATITUDE JET FLOW NEXT WEEK AND DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SONORA/CHIHUAHUA.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A RAPID MOISTURE INCREASE LOCALLY, THANKS TO
THE APPROACHING TROPICAL REMNANTS. PACIFIC LOW ALOFT WILL MAKE A
SOUTHEAST DIVE DOWN TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY, FORCED
BY A STRENGTHENING 75-KNOT JET STREAK ON ITS BACKSIDE. VEERING OF
MID-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL IN
DEEP, TROPICALLY-SOURCED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MEASURED AT JUST 0.7" THIS
EVENING (00Z KEPZ RAOB), WILL SPIKE TO 1.5-1.6" MONDAY EVENING.
THIS MAY BREAK SEASONAL MOISTURE RECORDS FOR EL PASO, AND IS
EASILY 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THE END OF
THE MONSOON SEASON. THIS MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE, COMBINED WITH
PVA AND INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN RAIN FOR ALL LOCAL ZONES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS UP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIKE
A FIRE HOSE INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. 48-HOUR RAINFALL
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.00-2.00". NBM
GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. STRONGER STORMS AND TRAINING (OR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS) OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
3-4". SOIL SATURATION IS VERY HIGH RIGHT NOW, SO RAIN WILL LEAD
TO RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING QUICKLY. A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF
4) RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE ALMOST AREA-WIDE FOR
TUESDAY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR ME WILL BE THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, WHICH HAVE ALREADY HAD AN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SEASON AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. CURRENT
PLAN IS TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH, COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFOS, ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS EVENT. WFO EL PASO WILL BE
LIBERAL WITH FLOOD WARNINGS IN AREAS WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS IF
NEEDED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NM ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIKELY BECOMING DRY
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ONCE ALL THIS ACTION PASSES, IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY "BORING"
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE START OF OCTOBER. STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST WILL USHER IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS LINGERING IN THE UPPER 70S THE REST OF THE WEEK
AHEAD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN200-250 PASS
OVERHEAD TODAY, LOWERING TONIGHT TO 150. FEW CU AT 080 DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH NO SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED. WINDS AOB 8KTS
MOSTLY FROM S-SE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MAINLY DRY
TODAY WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS. A SHOWER OR STORM MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NM BOOTHEEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY, SHIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREA MTNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING AREA- WIDE. FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL
ELEVATE THE FLOOD RISK. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK.
MIN RHS WILL BE 25-40% TODAY, RISING TO 60-90% ON TUE. VENT RATES
RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THROUGH MON, THEN MOSTLY POOR ON TUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 84 64 77 / 0 30 90 90
SIERRA BLANCA 62 83 61 77 / 0 20 80 70
LAS CRUCES 62 81 61 72 / 0 40 90 90
ALAMOGORDO 62 80 60 73 / 0 30 100 100
CLOUDCROFT 48 62 47 54 / 0 30 100 100
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 79 61 70 / 0 50 100 100
SILVER CITY 59 76 57 67 / 10 70 90 100
DEMING 63 84 61 74 / 10 50 90 100
LORDSBURG 65 83 62 73 / 10 50 90 100
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 85 64 77 / 0 30 90 90
DELL CITY 61 85 64 79 / 0 20 90 90
FORT HANCOCK 67 91 68 84 / 10 30 90 80
LOMA LINDA 63 79 61 72 / 0 30 90 90
FABENS 65 88 65 81 / 0 30 90 90
SANTA TERESA 63 83 63 75 / 0 30 90 90
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 82 64 74 / 0 40 100 90
JORNADA RANGE 63 82 61 73 / 0 40 100 100
HATCH 64 84 63 75 / 0 40 90 100
COLUMBUS 65 85 65 77 / 10 50 90 90
OROGRANDE 61 80 61 72 / 0 30 100 90
MAYHILL 53 75 54 67 / 0 30 90 100
MESCALERO 52 73 52 64 / 0 30 100 100
TIMBERON 52 70 51 62 / 0 30 100 100
WINSTON 55 73 54 65 / 10 70 100 100
HILLSBORO 63 80 60 72 / 10 60 100 100
SPACEPORT 61 80 59 71 / 0 50 100 100
LAKE ROBERTS 55 75 53 66 / 10 70 100 100
HURLEY 59 78 57 70 / 10 60 90 100
CLIFF 62 82 61 72 / 20 60 90 100
MULE CREEK 61 78 59 68 / 20 60 100 100
FAYWOOD 62 78 59 69 / 10 60 90 100
ANIMAS 65 85 63 74 / 10 60 90 100
HACHITA 64 84 62 74 / 10 60 80 100
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 84 63 75 / 10 60 80 90
CLOVERDALE 62 81 61 69 / 10 60 90 100
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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