224
FXUS64 KEPZ 180409
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1009 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- BETTER AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
- COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. SOME SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA, PARTIALLY
FROM TRUDY. THE BAJA LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW IN
MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. PWS WILL APPROACH
ONE INCH BY MONDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS ON SUNDAY
BUT PROBABLY MOSTLY WEST OF THE RG VALLEY. BETTER CHANCES AREA
WIDE ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY INCREASES ON MONDAY SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE (PWS AND DEWPOINTS) REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH, BUT NOT MUCH HELP ALOFT. HENCE JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO SOCAL THURSDAY AND
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. THIS LOW IS ABLE TO SCOOP MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP AS PWS APPROACH 1.2 INCHES. THAT IS WELL OVER
200% OF NORMAL. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THE
SPEED OF THE LOW EXITING. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE CONCENTRATED MORE
FROM THE RG VALLEY EAST FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ECMWF SHOWS TROUGH EXITING QUICKLY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS BREAKS OFF A CLOSED LOW FROM THE EXITING
TROUGH AND KEEPS IT OVER ARIZONA BOTH DAYS, SUGGESTING MORE RAIN
FOR THE AREA. NBM GRIDS LEANING TO THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT080 SCT-BKN250. AFTER
17Z WEST OF DEMING...ISOLATED BKN060 -SHRA. SHOWERS COULD SPREAD
AS FAR EAST AS THE RG VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
MOSTLY EAST 5-8 KNOTS. WINDS SOUTHEAST 7-10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
INCREASING MOISTURE TOMORROW WILL INCREASE MIN RHS TO 35-40% ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS AND 45-50% IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. EXPECT SIMILAR MIN
RHS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 20 FOOT WINDS STAYING LIGHT EACH
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FOCUS BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS
BORDERING AZ. ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR PUSHES IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH MAY BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BECOMING NEAR SEASONAL TO ABOVE AVERAGE MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 47 73 56 79 / 0 0 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 38 72 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 44 70 52 77 / 0 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 42 70 50 75 / 0 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 32 57 40 59 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 72 51 74 / 0 10 10 50
SILVER CITY 43 68 49 69 / 0 20 40 50
DEMING 46 72 51 76 / 0 0 10 40
LORDSBURG 46 73 52 74 / 0 20 30 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 73 58 78 / 0 0 10 20
DELL CITY 41 72 51 79 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 47 79 56 84 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 40 69 52 75 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 47 76 55 82 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 46 72 54 77 / 0 0 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 72 56 77 / 0 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 41 71 49 75 / 0 0 0 20
HATCH 45 74 53 78 / 0 0 10 40
COLUMBUS 48 74 55 78 / 0 0 10 30
OROGRANDE 39 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 37 70 46 71 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 36 66 44 69 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 34 63 42 66 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 37 67 42 67 / 0 10 20 60
HILLSBORO 45 70 52 74 / 0 10 20 50
SPACEPORT 41 70 48 74 / 0 0 10 40
LAKE ROBERTS 35 71 42 69 / 0 20 40 60
HURLEY 42 69 46 72 / 0 20 30 60
CLIFF 39 76 45 76 / 0 20 40 60
MULE CREEK 34 71 41 72 / 0 20 20 60
FAYWOOD 43 69 50 72 / 0 10 20 50
ANIMAS 46 74 53 76 / 10 20 30 70
HACHITA 45 73 52 75 / 0 10 30 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 75 54 78 / 0 10 20 30
CLOVERDALE 44 73 53 74 / 0 10 30 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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