483
FXUS64 KEPZ 081133
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
533 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING LOWLAND HIGHS
TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR THE ODD
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY ARE
DWINDLING.
- A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLANDS HIGHS IN THE
MID-90S COMMON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE-STARVED UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN SONORA, WITH A WEAK BAND OF VERY LIMITED MOISTURE LURKING
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. A FEW SCANT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA EARLIER THIS EVENING PRODUCED SOME CIRRUS BLOW
OFF, AND THERE ARE STILL SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
BORDER. MEANWHILE, SOME OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE APPROACHED
SOUTHEASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY, WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE 40S. THE ODD SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE THERE, MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF SIERRA BLANCA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE VERY LOW.
A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CAUSE
THE UPPER LOW TO DRIFT TO THE ESE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
SLIDING EAST INTO THE BIG BEND BY EVENING. WHILE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS 50+ WILL MIX OUT EAST OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON, SOME UPPER-30S TO LOWER-40S DEWPOINTS
WILL PERSIST IN HUDSPETH COUNTY. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, LIKELY
STARTING OUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-10. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS, AND WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME OUTFLOW TRYING
TO PUSH WEST TOWARDS EL PASO IN THE EVENING.
A LOPSIDED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEKEND, BUT WE'LL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRAZE NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A
WEAK BACKDOOR "COLD FRONT". WHILE WE WILL SEE A SHIFT TO EASTERLY
WINDS UP TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE ON SUNDAY, THE COOLER AIR WILL
ONLY JUST LAP INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S COMMON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.
A REINFORCING EASTERLY PUSH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE LOPSIDED RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAMPING TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE MID-90S
AGAIN FOR THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT BREEZES
AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HERE AND
THERE BUT MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
GENERALLY LOW TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
DUE TO VERY LOW MIN RHS. LOWLAND MIN RHS WILL DIP AS LOW AS SINGLE
DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON, TOMORROW, AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL FEATURE LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
5-10 MPH. THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
SHIFTING WINDS EASTERLY. BY MONDAY, MIN RHS ARE STILL IN CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS BUT VALUES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 13-20% ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 25-30% IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY CONTINUE TO FEATURE CRITICAL MIN RHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
(10-15%) AND NEAR CRITICAL MIN RHS IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS (UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S). 20 FOOT WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT EACH DAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK BLEAK THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY POST-COLD FRONT BUT TEMPERATURES
STAY QUITE WARM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 48 68 49 66 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 94 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 92 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 95 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 94 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 81 53 75 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 50 79 51 76 / 0 0 0 20
TIMBERON 44 76 50 74 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 49 82 53 83 / 0 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 59 88 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 51 90 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 84 41 84 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 52 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 91 48 91 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 86 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 90 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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