985
FXUS64 KEPZ 270443
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1043 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
- WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND, WITH LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK EACH AFTERNOON.
- WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
- OUR VERY WARM TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE SUMMER HEAT WILL DRAG ON, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER
THIS WEEK. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THAT WILL KEEP LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIMITED, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
LIKE TONIGHT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WHICH COULD MOVE OFF QUITE A DISTANCE FROM THEIR PARENT
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN AN EASTWARD JOG.
BUT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS NOT ENOUGH TO HELP SET UP A DEEP
MONSOON FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE PUMPED INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY MAINLY DRY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN AREA
MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL RUN 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE MAIN SECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS WELL TO OUR EAST, BUT IT WILL EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST AND
INTO OUR REGION IN AN ELONGATED FASHION. SO DESPITE SOME MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO SEPTEMBER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BEGINS TO GET
MORE ACTIVE. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE ALL
THE DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER WE ARE ABLE TO PULL SOME OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN OUR DIRECTION OR IF ALL THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
ENERGY HEADS ON OFF OUT INTO THE PACIFIC.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY IS JUST PASSING THROUGH KLRU AND KDMN AND IT WILL MAKE IT
TO KELP IN THE NEXT HOUR. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END GUSTY WINDS, BEFORE OUR WINDS GO LIGHT FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY OUR WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION THEM IN
THE TAF'S. SOME MID CEILINGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION, BUT THE
MID CEILINGS WILL MOVE ON OFF LATER TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE
UNLIMITED CEILINGS THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE MORE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS GIVE US SOME HIGH CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE REGION, WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS, AND THE MID 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
IT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MOST OF THE REGION, BY ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO, AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE
PREVAILING WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORM-GENERATED OUTFLOWS UP TO 50 MPH.
VENTILATION RATES FOR THE AREA WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BETTER MOISTURE IS IN STORE
FOR THE LOWLANDS TOMORROW BEFORE RETREATING TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 101 75 99 / 0 10 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 96 66 94 / 10 30 20 10
LAS CRUCES 72 100 70 98 / 0 0 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 99 68 96 / 10 20 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 54 75 51 73 / 10 50 30 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 99 72 97 / 10 10 20 10
SILVER CITY 68 94 65 92 / 0 30 30 30
DEMING 72 102 71 99 / 0 0 20 0
LORDSBURG 73 101 72 99 / 0 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 79 101 77 99 / 0 10 20 0
DELL CITY 71 99 69 97 / 10 20 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 76 104 74 102 / 0 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 70 93 68 91 / 10 30 20 10
FABENS 74 101 73 100 / 0 10 20 0
SANTA TERESA 74 100 73 98 / 0 10 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 100 73 98 / 10 10 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 73 99 70 97 / 10 10 20 0
HATCH 73 103 72 101 / 10 0 30 0
COLUMBUS 75 102 75 100 / 0 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 71 98 68 95 / 10 10 20 10
MAYHILL 58 87 56 85 / 20 70 20 50
MESCALERO 57 86 55 84 / 20 40 30 60
TIMBERON 57 83 54 82 / 10 60 20 50
WINSTON 63 90 60 89 / 10 40 20 40
HILLSBORO 71 98 69 96 / 10 20 30 20
SPACEPORT 71 99 69 97 / 10 10 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 92 59 91 / 10 40 30 60
HURLEY 68 97 66 94 / 0 20 20 10
CLIFF 70 101 69 100 / 0 10 20 30
MULE CREEK 68 97 66 96 / 0 10 20 20
FAYWOOD 70 95 68 93 / 0 20 30 10
ANIMAS 72 102 71 100 / 0 10 20 0
HACHITA 72 100 71 98 / 0 10 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 100 69 98 / 0 10 20 0
CLOVERDALE 68 95 68 94 / 0 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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