468
FXUS64 KEPZ 030435
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1035 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 835 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.
- GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, FLOODING, AND EVEN SOME HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- HOT NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND LIKELY THE
FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR FOR EL PASO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
OUR UNSEASONABLY MOIST PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, AND HAS ACTUALLY
CONTINUED TO BOLSTER THE MOISTURE WITH PLENTY OF MONDAY CONVECTION
OVER AREAS TO OUR EAST, ENHANCING A FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION, WITH STRONG AND JUICED OUTFLOWS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED DRAMATICALLY OVER OUR CENTRAL AREAS BEHIND
THIS EVENINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WE SAW DEWPOINTS JUMP ALMOST 30F
IN 20 MIN. WE WILL KEEP THE AREA FLUSH WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALL THE
WAY TO THE AZ STATE LINE FOR TOMORROW. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR A CONTINUED MOISTENING, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH A
DEEP CLOCKWISE FLOW OPENING THE GULF, FLOWING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS
TX INTO NM; WHILE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HEATING IS CREATING LOW
PRESSURE TO ENHANCE A PULL OF THAT MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. PWATS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY
JUNE. ALOFT, THE PATTERN IS ONE OF A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH TO OUR
WEST, THAT WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT UNSTABLE,
AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME MINOR CONVECTION INDUCING SHORTWAVES FOR
THE AREA.
TOMORROW, LOOKS TO BE STORMY AREA WIDE, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
NEGATIVE LIS AND HIGHER CAPES. WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO NEAR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT, WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS WITH SLOW MOTION, HEAVY
RAIN, AND POTENTIAL LOCAL FLOODING. SPC HAS THE EL PASO AREA, AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL TOMORROW.
THE MOISTURE STAYS HEALTHY AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY, FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WITH A BIT LESS FUEL FOR
STRONG STORMS, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE OF FOCUS BACK TO THE EAST,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
FOR FRIDAY, THE GFS AND EC MODELS BOTH SCOOT THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
TO OUR EAST, AND WITH THAT BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST, WITH DRY AIR WEST. WE
EXPECT FEW TO NO STORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS, WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS CENTRAL AND EAST. WE DO NOT SEE A CLEAN SWEEP OF
MOISTURE, WITH A STRONG WEST PUSH FOR SATURDAY, SO WE LOOK TO KEEP
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA LOOKING DRY.
SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRY DAYS, WITH A
DEEP AND MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THAT SHOULD MEAN DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SE SURFACE FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH A SLIVER OF MOISTURE REINTRODUCED. THIS COULD MEAN
SOME WEAK AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORM POTENTIAL TO WATCH OUT FOR.
ALL OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOT, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND
HIGHS FOR EL PASO SURPASSING 100 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIMES THIS
YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
BKN AND OVC CONVECTIVE DEBRIS, AND POSSIBLY NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE STORMS TO MOVE
OVER KELP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1-2 AM. SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE SCT/BKN110-130 BKN-OVC150-180. CLOUDS WILL WANE SOME THROUGH THE
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHC FOR TSRA FOR KELP AND KLRU BTWN 06Z TO
08Z. TEMPO MVFR FOR THOSE TERMINAL DUE TO LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY IN
RAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE VRBL AND GUSTY BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A GENERAL EAST PUSH. TOMORROW, WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA
AND TSRA ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS WE SAW
TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE BEST
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY. MIN
RHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS AT 20-40% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 40-50% IN THE AREA
MOUNTAINS. FLOODING FROM STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE BOTH
DAYS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, GOOD MOISTURE WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD BUT
WILL BE LESS THAN WED/THU. CRITICAL MIN RHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE REST OF THE
AREA SEEING RHS 20-30% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 45-50% IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WE WILL ENTER A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH CRITICAL
MIN RHS RETURNING. THE SACRAMENTO MTNS HAS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE DRY THAT
AFTERNOON. LOOKING DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A RAPID REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. CRITICAL MIN RHS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY BUT
CRITICAL RHS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SUNDAY WITH NEAR CRITICAL
MIN RHS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 20-25%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 91 67 90 / 30 30 60 10
SIERRA BLANCA 60 83 59 83 / 60 70 60 30
LAS CRUCES 61 89 59 87 / 30 20 70 10
ALAMOGORDO 61 86 61 86 / 40 40 70 20
CLOUDCROFT 46 65 45 65 / 60 70 60 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 87 62 87 / 30 50 40 20
SILVER CITY 56 84 55 83 / 0 50 50 50
DEMING 62 93 59 92 / 10 10 60 10
LORDSBURG 63 91 60 90 / 0 20 40 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 89 66 88 / 20 30 60 10
DELL CITY 60 85 59 87 / 70 50 60 30
FORT HANCOCK 66 92 64 91 / 60 60 50 30
LOMA LINDA 61 81 59 82 / 50 40 60 20
FABENS 65 91 63 91 / 30 40 60 10
SANTA TERESA 63 88 61 87 / 20 30 60 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 88 68 88 / 40 30 70 20
JORNADA RANGE 62 88 60 87 / 20 30 70 20
HATCH 62 92 61 90 / 10 20 60 20
COLUMBUS 67 92 64 91 / 10 20 60 10
OROGRANDE 61 85 60 85 / 40 30 60 20
MAYHILL 51 74 51 76 / 70 80 60 70
MESCALERO 50 75 50 75 / 60 70 60 60
TIMBERON 48 72 47 72 / 60 60 70 60
WINSTON 52 79 51 80 / 20 70 40 50
HILLSBORO 61 86 60 85 / 10 50 60 40
SPACEPORT 58 87 57 86 / 20 40 70 20
LAKE ROBERTS 53 85 51 84 / 10 70 50 60
HURLEY 57 87 55 85 / 0 30 60 50
CLIFF 57 91 56 90 / 0 60 50 50
MULE CREEK 55 88 54 87 / 0 50 40 50
FAYWOOD 59 85 57 84 / 10 30 60 40
ANIMAS 61 91 59 91 / 0 30 30 10
HACHITA 62 90 59 90 / 0 20 40 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 91 59 90 / 0 20 20 20
CLOVERDALE 58 87 57 86 / 0 30 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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