947
FXUS64 KEPZ 082332
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
532 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- A DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REDUCE STORM CHANCES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN, BUT MOST LOWLAND AREAS WILL BE DRY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST, WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
TULAROSA BASIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
TOMORROW, PULLING IN DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A DOWNTICK
IN STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS
WITH THE GILA REGION BEING FAVORED. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BUT
JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH. CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS
FOCUSING OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE
BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE ERODES AWAY AND SHUNTS ITSELF EAST
ALLOWING FOR A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. IF THIS PANS OUT, THAT WOULD MEAN BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS
BUT MAY INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. MAY POTENTIALLY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES IN PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE TEMPERATURES TO MOSTLY BELOW TRIPLE DIGITS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER VALLEY AREA IN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW110/FEW-SCT250. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT GENERALLY FAVORING FROM THE SE. STORM
OUTFLOWS MAY BRING WIND SHIFTS LATER THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY TO
ELP, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
GENERALLY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. DRIER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
POSSIBLE. AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN AREAS BORDERING AZ WILL BE
FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER
TAP OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM
COVERAGE AND PERHAPS EVEN THE FLOODING RISK AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES STAY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH 20 FOOT WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT EACH AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH WITH CALM OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS. MIN RHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AT 13-20% AND MOUNTAIN RHS
OF 20-30%. BETTER MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES LIFTS MIN RHS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH VALUES OF 18-25% AND MOUNTAIN RHS 30-50%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 97 67 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 97 70 99 / 0 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 75 52 76 / 0 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 98 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 91 64 93 / 10 20 10 20
DEMING 68 98 67 100 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 70 98 69 99 / 0 10 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 98 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 98 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 100 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 96 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 97 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 97 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 100 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 98 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 96 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 55 87 57 88 / 0 10 0 10
TIMBERON 53 84 55 86 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 60 91 60 92 / 0 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 67 97 67 98 / 0 10 10 0
SPACEPORT 67 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 91 58 92 / 10 30 10 50
HURLEY 65 94 64 95 / 0 10 10 10
CLIFF 66 99 66 99 / 20 30 20 40
MULE CREEK 65 95 64 95 / 20 30 30 40
FAYWOOD 66 93 66 95 / 0 10 10 0
ANIMAS 69 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 68 97 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 65 93 64 90 / 0 0 0 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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