801
FXUS64 KEPZ 251934
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1234 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
- OUR LATEST TWO DAY, DOUBLE TROUGH, STORM SYSTEM IS EXITING THE
REGION, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR RAPIDLY OVERTAKING THE BORDERLAND.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR EASTERN AREAS AND AS COLD AS 10 TO 15 BELOW FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING. WET AND/OR SNOW COVERED
GROUND, ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS, AND CLEARER SKIES, WILL ALSO
BRING THE THREAT OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING CHILLY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH MINOR COLD
FRONT INTRUSIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
AT NOON SUNDAY, WE SEE THE VERY LAST OF THE RADAR ECHOS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TWO-TROUGH STORM SYSTEM, DIMINISHING AND
TRACKING SE AS THEY EXIT THE BORDERLAND. SATELLITE IS SHOWING
CLOUDS RAPIDLY CLEARING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH DRY AIR
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DELIVERED QUITE A
BIT OF BOTH LIQUID AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION WITH NEARLY ALL THE
AREA GETTING AT LEAST 3/4", AND MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVED
BETWEEN 1-2" OF PCPN. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DONE, AND WE ARE RAPIDLY
MOVING BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SEASONAL SCENARIO OF MOSTLY DRY W TO
NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WE START WITH A DRY NW FLOW PATTERN, ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS CURRENT EXITING TROUGH. THIS WILL MEAN COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THROUGH THE WEEK, AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE WEST COAST, OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY, AS
TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE, BUT STAY SOMEWHAT CHILLY, AS MINOR
COLD FRONTS PUSH IN AND SLOW DAILY WARMING. BY MID AND LATE WEEK,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL 3-5 DEGREES SHORT OF THE DAILY AVERAGES.
WEATHER WILL BE FAIR, WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS, BUT DRY LOW AND MID-LEVELS, WILL
MEAN ON PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION, BREAKS DOWN AND
SHOVES OFF TO THE SE AS THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH FORMS AND MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE SW U.S. THIS FEATURE IS WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE, AS
IT TAKES A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY ALONG THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER, AND
NEVER REALLY BRINGS MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION, AS BOTH THE GFS AND
EC MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE AND PCPN SOUTH. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
REST OF THE MONTH WILL BE DRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE STORM SYSTEM S RAPIDLY EXITING THE REGION. KDMN, KTCS, AND
KLRU ARE SKC, WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS, WHICH ARE
DISSIPATING. KELP STILL UNDER THE CLOUD SHIELD, WITH LOW CIGS.
HOWEVER, PCPN IS DONE, WITH BETTER VSBY AND CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR
FOR KELP, AND ALL SIGHTS. POTENTIAL WATCH OUT FOR OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WET OR SNOW
COVERED GROUND, WHICH COULD BRING TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS BTWN 08Z
AND 14Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
THIS LATEST TWO-DAY WEATHER SYSTEM, HAS BROUGHT SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING NEAR RECORD
JANUARY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. AS USUAL, THE GILA,
BOOTHEEL GOT THE LEAST OF IT, BUT STILL A GOOD LONG DOUSING OF
1/2 TO 1". TO THE EAST, MOST LOCATIONS GOT 1-2" OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. THE SACS GOT 8-15"+ OF SNOWFALL. A LOOK AT THE PSA ERC
CHARTS SHOW THAT OUR ENTIRE AREA IS NOW RECORDING ERCS AT OR
BELOW THE DAILY MINIMUMS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW EAST OF THE REGION,
AND DRY AIR IS QUICKLY FILLING BACK IN ON NW FLOW BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS, WITH
PLENTY OF SUN AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS, WIDER SWINGS IN RH, WITH
MODERATE TO LOW DAYTIME MINRH, AND GENERALLY GOOD RECOVERIES IN
THE NIGHTTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK, TO TO THE NW FLOW ALOFT, AND MINOR COLD FRONT
INTRUSIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE, AND
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. A SYSTEM WILL PASS THU/FRI, BUT IT IS
LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE DRY, AS THE MOISTURE STAYS SOUTH, AND THE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH QUICKLY. AREAWIDE, VENTILATION RATES LOOK
POOR FOR THE WEEK, WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION OF OUR WESTERN AREAS ON
FRIDAY, WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 25 45 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 16 37 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 23 45 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 14 40 15 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 7 26 14 35 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 26 45 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 22 44 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 26 49 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 23 47 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 28 45 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 7 34 7 38 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 21 47 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 20 35 21 40 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 21 46 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 24 45 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 25 42 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 19 44 17 51 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 22 49 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 28 49 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 15 38 14 43 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 8 38 15 49 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 8 36 14 46 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 8 32 14 42 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 15 42 17 52 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 24 45 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 20 45 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 19 46 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 22 46 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 20 52 21 59 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 21 49 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 25 44 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 25 49 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 24 47 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 26 50 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 30 45 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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