101
FXUS64 KEPZ 041122
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
522 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEST CHANCES FOR AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
MODELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTING WESTWARD AND ENDING UP IN THE KS/OK BORDER REGION
WITH A RIDGE AXIS CUTTING THROUGH THE CWA. CURRENTLY WE HAVE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PW'S OF THE MONSOON SEASON IN PLACE WITH 1.4" ON
00Z EPZ SOUNDING. WITH PRETTY WEAK FLOW OVER THE AREA, THIS
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SAT. THE ISSUE WILL BE A LITTLE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND
400-500MB AND THAT RIDGE AXIS.
THERE WILL BE AN MCV DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE MOST PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE FRI, BUT THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING
SOMEWHAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS HAPPENED TODAY, THESE MORNING
CLOUDS COULD LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS AS WELL. GFS AND CAMS ARE
KEEPING COVERAGE PRETTY LIMITED AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. EC IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS CONTINUING INTO
THE RGV AND FAR WEST TX AFTER 00Z. THERE IS AGREEMENT THERE WILL
BE SOME LL CONVERGENCE OVER HUDSPETH AROUND 00Z WHICH COULD SEND
OUTFLOWS FURTHER WEST AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEEMS TO COVER THIS PRETTY WELL AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR SAT, EXCEPT THERE IS A BETTER LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SACS AND THEN OUTFLOWS
PUSHING STORMS ONTO THE LOWLANDS. THE RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED(20%)
COVERAGE LOOKS WARRANTED FOR EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES LOOK
SIMILAR TO FRI.
FOR SUN/MON, THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND
STARTS TO BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO EASTERN AREAS. EXPECT MOST
STORM COVERAGE HERE TO BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THESE ALSO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING
100 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY.
TUE-THU OF NEXT WEEK WE ARE SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS. THE EC KEEPS UPPER HIGH THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS THE HIGH FURTHER EAST AND ALLOWS A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW TO MOVE IN FROM MEXICO. ENSEMBLE MEANS
OF BOTH ARE MORE SIMILAR AND THE UPPER WEAKNESS SHOWN ON THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT AS NOTICEABLE IN IT'S MEAN. THERE WILL BE A
NICE ESE FLOW PATTERN THOUGH, WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME
BETTER MOISTURE, SO WILL KEEP NBM LOW END POPS GOING WITH TEMPS
REMAINING ON A VERY SLOW DOWNWARD TREND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SCATTERED -SHRA ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING, WITH
SKIES BKN-OVC120. SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY 230-260 AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
CAUSING A DELAY IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND STORM CHANCES FOR S NM AND
W TX. ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NM AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN 12Z TAFS, AND KELP'S
BEST CHANCE MAY ACTUALLY BE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT (03-06Z). FUTURE
FORECAST CYCLES MAY ADD TS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT DUE TO TS OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NM FORESTS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD CAUSE SUDDEN, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 2PM AND 10PM
TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MIN RH 30-40% WITH
VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
LEADING TO POOR/FAIR VENT RATES. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AGAIN TONIGHT.
GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH LINCOLN AND GILA NF OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH FLOODING RISK PEAKING DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS EACH
DAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED (30-50%) AND SPOTTY IN
NATURE. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
FIRE DANGER LOW WITH MINIMAL RISK OF NEW LIGHTNING STARTS.
PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE SE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MIDDAY VENT RATES GENERALLY POOR/FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 96 73 96 / 40 10 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 64 91 65 91 / 50 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 66 95 67 95 / 20 10 30 10
ALAMOGORDO 68 94 68 94 / 20 30 20 40
CLOUDCROFT 50 71 50 71 / 20 70 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 93 70 94 / 20 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 61 87 63 88 / 10 20 10 30
DEMING 66 96 67 96 / 10 10 20 10
LORDSBURG 66 92 68 94 / 10 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 96 75 96 / 30 10 20 0
DELL CITY 68 96 69 96 / 40 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 98 73 99 / 50 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 66 89 67 89 / 40 20 20 10
FABENS 70 97 71 97 / 40 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 69 94 70 95 / 20 0 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 95 72 95 / 30 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 67 94 68 95 / 20 20 30 10
HATCH 68 98 69 98 / 20 10 30 10
COLUMBUS 71 96 72 96 / 20 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 66 93 68 93 / 20 10 10 10
MAYHILL 56 84 56 83 / 20 60 10 40
MESCALERO 55 82 55 82 / 20 60 20 60
TIMBERON 53 81 54 80 / 20 40 10 40
WINSTON 57 84 59 85 / 20 40 20 40
HILLSBORO 66 91 68 93 / 20 30 20 20
SPACEPORT 65 94 67 95 / 20 10 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 55 86 56 86 / 20 40 20 50
HURLEY 61 90 63 90 / 10 20 10 20
CLIFF 64 94 66 95 / 20 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 61 90 64 91 / 10 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 64 89 66 89 / 10 20 20 10
ANIMAS 66 91 68 94 / 10 10 0 10
HACHITA 65 92 67 94 / 20 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 90 66 93 / 20 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 62 85 64 88 / 20 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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