189
FXUS64 KEPZ 242102
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
302 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1253 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME OUTFLOW COULD KICK UP DUST IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING.
- HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 100 TO 103
RANGE AFTER TODAY, TECHNICALLY A MINOR COOL-DOWN. TRIPLE DIGITS
LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
STILL MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST. LOW-END MONSOON
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS
IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SPRAWLING 598 DAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS. DESPITE CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, IT IS
CARRYING IN VERY WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT. 500 MB TEMP ON THE 18Z
RAOB WAS -3.3 C. THE INVERTED TROUGH AT ONE TIME ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF BERTHA IS PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED, ALONG THE DURANGO/CHIHUAHUA BORDER, BUT
STILL TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON WEATHER DIRECTLY. IT
WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES, AND
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE JUST GETTING SCATTERED HIGH ELEVATION
CONVECTION, AND WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO DRIFT INTO THE
LOWLANDS. SOME OUTFLOW WINDS MAY APPROACH LORDSBURG PLAYA AFTER
ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM.
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, STILL MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WITH MORE DRIFT INTO THE
LOWLANDS, FAVORING SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ANOTHER WEAK INVERTED SOUTH PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
BUT AGAIN MOSTLY INFLUENCING WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH (BUT FURTHER
NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRES SUNDAY EVENING). CONVECTION CHANCES
LOOK A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BUT MOISTURE FROM ACTIVITY IN SONORA AND ARIZONA LOOKS TO BECOME
MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE IN SW NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL BE BATTLING DRY AND WARM AIR INTRUSIONS COMING IN
FROM TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NO CLEAR MONSOON
"BURSTS" ON THE HORIZON, DESPITE A WEAKENING RIDGE DRIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
OUTFLOW WINDS MAY WORK INTO LRU AND DMN FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z, BUT GUSTS WILL BE UNDER 25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LOW FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE. MIN RHS IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL BE
13-18% TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE JUST BARELY OUT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
TO 18-22% OVER THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN RHS WILL BE 30-50%. SCATTERED
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STAY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 81 103 79 102 / 20 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 69 96 70 97 / 10 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 74 101 72 100 / 20 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 76 99 74 99 / 10 20 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 56 76 55 75 / 30 30 10 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 76 100 74 99 / 10 20 40 10
SILVER CITY 68 94 66 92 / 20 30 40 50
DEMING 75 102 72 101 / 10 10 20 10
LORDSBURG 75 101 72 99 / 10 20 40 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 82 102 80 101 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 74 101 73 100 / 10 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 78 103 78 104 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 72 95 71 95 / 10 0 0 10
FABENS 79 103 77 103 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 79 101 76 100 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 81 102 80 100 / 10 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 77 101 75 99 / 10 10 20 10
HATCH 76 104 74 102 / 10 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 79 104 77 102 / 10 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 75 100 74 99 / 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 62 87 60 87 / 30 20 10 40
MESCALERO 61 87 59 87 / 30 40 20 60
TIMBERON 59 86 58 85 / 20 20 10 40
WINSTON 64 91 63 90 / 20 30 40 60
HILLSBORO 73 98 71 97 / 10 20 20 30
SPACEPORT 73 100 71 99 / 10 20 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 62 94 61 93 / 20 50 30 60
HURLEY 69 98 68 96 / 30 20 30 40
CLIFF 69 100 68 98 / 40 40 40 30
MULE CREEK 68 95 65 94 / 30 50 40 40
FAYWOOD 70 97 69 95 / 20 20 30 40
ANIMAS 75 101 72 99 / 10 10 20 10
HACHITA 73 101 71 99 / 10 10 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 73 101 71 99 / 10 10 10 20
CLOVERDALE 69 95 67 93 / 10 10 20 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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