721
FXUS64 KEPZ 091656
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
956 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS, TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES, AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
A CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BORDERLAND. THE REGION
WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN SOME NEAR RECORDS POSSIBLE
GOING INTO THU/FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF INTO
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME 40S FOR MAINLY EASTERN
SLOPE LOCATIONS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT LOOKS LIKE WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP AREAS LIKE EAST EL PASO
WARMER.
THE ONLY SOMEWHAT IMPACTFUL FEATURE WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT THE MODELS HAVE HELD ONTO MOVING IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOOKS
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT,
MAINLY ON THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. COULD SEE GUSTS OVER 30
MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF 10-20 MPH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. NBM WINDS SEEMED WAY TOO LOW AND DID RAISE
UP ABOUT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES OUT WEST AND ABOUT 15 DEGREES OUT EAST.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM UP AROUND 5 DEGREES. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS
WITH HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE DRAWN UP AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WHICH WOULD MAINLY JUST HAVE AN EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO NBM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
P6SM SKC-FEW250 WITH WEST WINDS AOB 12KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 15 MPH BUT COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY AT
TIMES ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S BY THU, RH'S WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS
TO UPPER 20S. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS
5-15 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY, BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VENT RATES WILL BE
POOR TO LOW END FAIR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 40 62 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 38 64 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 66 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 48 36 54 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 65 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 66 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 69 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 32 68 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 38 66 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 29 66 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 36 69 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 61 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 36 68 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 65 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 25 66 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 34 68 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 68 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 64 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 56 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 34 59 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 34 56 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 30 62 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 40 64 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 33 65 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 68 28 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 33 66 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 26 69 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 66 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 65 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 33 69 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 33 67 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 38 69 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 66 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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