169
FXUS64 KEPZ 210520
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1020 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1011 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER
FAIR SKIES.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC LOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND WINTRY MIX
ARE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER, WITH LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
THE NEXT AND WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. AS IT DOES
SO, A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL DEVELOP ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SAID UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, OVERSPREADING ACROSS
NM, WEST TX, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
WILL SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. IN FACT,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 3-4 SIGMA ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH GOOD DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LASTING THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY
(70-90% POPS) AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING (40-60% POPS). QPF CONTINUES
TO TREND UPWARD WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.25" ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME WITH REGARD
TO QPF.
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, A HISTORICALLY STRONG
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (~1050MB) WILL USHER IN A ARCTIC
AIRMASS ACROSS CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF SAID COLD FRONT,
TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA, AND WHETHER OR NOT
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE ONGOING AS IT PUSHES THROUGH - AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD THE ASPECTS JUST MENTIONED ABOVE.
TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE KEY, WITH REGARD TO SNOW MIXING ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. AS FRESH DATA CONTINUES TO POPULATE OVER THE NEXT
24-72 HOURS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. IF FROPA OCCURS EARLIER ON WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING, THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
SNOW ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. IF FROPA OCCURS LATER ON WHILE
PRECIPITATION ENDS, THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF SEEING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING SNOW OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS (DIVE INTO
THAT IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH) AND ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF HUDSPETH
COUNTY/OTERO MESA REGION. AS OF NOW FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES NBM
PROBABILITIES ARE A LOW: PROBABILITY OF >/= 0.5 SNOW : EL PASO-20% /
LAS CRUCES-25%.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, SNOW WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. SNOW LEVELS OVER THE SACS
LOOK TO HOLD AT 7500-8500 FT BEFORE THEY DROP DURING THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME. THAT BEING SAID BEING 72-96 HOURS
OUT FROM THE EVENT, EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SACS AND GILA
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE (70-90%) OF SEEING 4"
OR MORE OF SNOW (ADVISORY CRITERIA) OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BLACK RANGE/PINOS ALTOS. MEDIUM CHANCE
(50-65%) OF SEEING 8" OR MORE OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS.
AND LOW CHANCE (20-35%) OF SEEING 12" OR MORE OF SNOW OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS. THAT BEING SAID, WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DROPPING TO BELOW 10 PERCENT AFTER 12PM AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN.
SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD, WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS SUNDAY
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES BOTH MORNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH QUIET/FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS RESUMING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC. WINDS LIGHT AT 3-7
KNOTS AND GENERALLY VRB IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHER THAN MODEST WEST BREEZES IN FWZ113, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARM THROUGH THU TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD THROUGH WED NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI-SAT AS COLD AIR
SPILLS IN ON SAT. SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR THE SACS. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH SAT, THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT/SUN
AS THE EVENT WRAPS UP. SOME BREEZY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM LATE
IN THE WEEK. COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW
MUCH COLD AIR REACHES THE AREA.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% THROUGH THU, THEN 40-70% THROUGH
WEEKEND. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR THROUGH WED, POOR TO GOOD
FOR THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 32 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 30 58 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 26 58 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 25 58 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 24 44 29 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 30 59 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 57 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 27 62 33 67 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 26 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 35 60 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 22 58 27 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 30 64 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 31 55 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 29 62 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 29 59 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 33 59 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 23 59 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 24 62 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 29 61 36 67 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 26 58 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 24 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 24 54 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 25 51 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 21 55 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 30 59 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 22 59 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 59 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 27 58 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 25 64 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 60 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 31 57 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 29 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 26 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 64 35 68 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 37 62 42 61 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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