484
FXUS64 KEPZ 010459
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
959 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 908 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
- RECORD WARMTH THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS WELL INTO THE
EIGHTIES, AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- FIRE DANGER INCREASES DURING THE WORKWEEK DUE TO CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
OUR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS
THROUGH MON, BREAKING DAILY RECORDS. WINDS WILL BE MODESTLY BREEZY
ON SUN, GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH FROM THE WEST. A BIT BREEZIER FOR
MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WITH DEEPER SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH ON TUE, RESULTING IN
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE TX PANHANDLE TUE AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS
ARE ONLY MODELED TO BE AROUND 20KTS, SO A TYPICAL BREEZY, SPRING
DAY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUE WITH MINOR IMPACTS. FIRE DANGER WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN TO START THE WORKWEEK DUE TO THE BREEZY W-SW
WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THE FUELS AREN'T VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREADS (ERCS ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
50TH PERCENTILE, BUT WILL BE TRENDING UP). BLOWING DUST IS A MINOR
THREAT AS WELL ON TUE WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH; IMPACTS SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND I DON'T EXPECT VIS TO FALL LOWER THAN 3 MILES.
WE'LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED WITH WEAKER ZONAL FLOW KEEPING
WINDS LIGHTER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT US LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH SOME WIND AND THEN POSSIBLY RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
A LOBE OF ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF TO OUR WEST. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY, BUT THU APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER TYPICAL BREEZY DAY AS
ONE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH; LOW CONCERNS FOR FIRE WX AND
DUST. THEN, BOTH GLOBAL AI ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH NEAR BAJA AND CUTTING OFF, SCOOPING UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PATTERN
PRODUCING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR US AS THE MODELS COULD
CHANGE DRASTICALLY, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO WATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND BEGINNING ON TUE, FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL
BY NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE SERIES OF TROUGHS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AOB 8KTS MOSTLY FROM W THROUGH THE MORNING, INCREASING A BIT AFTER
18Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS. FEW-SCT250 PASS OVERHEAD INTO THE AM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 846 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 8-12 MPH GENERALLY
OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS PICK UP STARTING MONDAY AND CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHERE LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 MPH. A
COUPLE OF PASSING STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING THESE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY TO WHAT
WE'RE EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS WILL BE CRITICAL ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH VALUES DIPPING
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (7-10%) SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR
CRITICAL MIN RHS IN THE MOUNTAINS (15-20%). VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT EVERY DAY OF THE WORK WEEK EXCEPT WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 54 87 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 61 43 62 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 47 88 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 82 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 45 87 45 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 91 52 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 51 89 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 85 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 84 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 45 89 46 88 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 88 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 77 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 43 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 71 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 40 78 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 50 84 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 84 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 76 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 80 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 43 84 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 79 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 81 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 84 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 84 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 86 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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