709
FXUS64 KEPZ 091756
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1156 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 931 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
- BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY. STORM CHANCES PERSIST EACH
AFTERNOON FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NM WITH LESSER
ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
- STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S; FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US IS
SPLITTING THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN TWO TODAY, WITH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SURROUNDING THIS NEW HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DIRECT STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE PASSING TROUGH WILL GIVE THE
ENTIRE REGION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREA MOUNTAINS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (30-60%) AND THE LOWLANDS
HAVE AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%) STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, THOUGH AS THE
NEW UPPER-LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO, STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS ON
THURSDAY. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE GONE ON THURSDAY.
DRIER, CONTINENTAL AIR WILL MIX IN ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO A DOWNTICK
IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LOWLANDS. STORMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO
THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF NEW MEXICO ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS.
A NEW RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SET UP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
ON SUNDAY, AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE ON
THE WEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE HEADING INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODEL RUNS
HAVE CONSISTENT MOISTURE IN OUR AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HOW MUCH RAIN THE REGION WILL GET BY MID-NEXT WEEK IS
UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE OBSERVATION PERIOD,
AND OFF-AND-ON -TSRA WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHETHER ANY ONE STORM WILL
IMPACT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES IS UNCLEAR AS OF NOW, AND WE WILL
AMEND OUR TAFS AS NEEDED. OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE TAF
SITES. -TSRA MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN LOW.
MIN RH'S TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20%. THE
WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CREATE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A HAZARD WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. VENTILATION
RATES WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 72 98 / 40 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 92 66 94 / 20 20 20 0
LAS CRUCES 68 93 67 97 / 60 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 67 94 68 97 / 40 30 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 70 51 74 / 50 70 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 93 69 96 / 40 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 63 88 62 89 / 40 60 10 10
DEMING 67 95 66 98 / 50 20 10 0
LORDSBURG 69 93 68 93 / 50 30 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 95 73 98 / 50 20 20 0
DELL CITY 70 96 69 99 / 20 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 73 99 73 101 / 20 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 68 89 67 91 / 40 30 10 0
FABENS 72 97 71 99 / 30 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 70 94 70 96 / 50 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 95 73 97 / 60 30 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 93 68 96 / 60 20 10 0
HATCH 69 96 68 99 / 60 20 10 0
COLUMBUS 71 96 71 98 / 50 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 68 93 67 96 / 50 20 10 0
MAYHILL 57 82 56 87 / 30 80 10 10
MESCALERO 55 82 55 85 / 40 60 10 0
TIMBERON 54 79 54 83 / 40 60 10 10
WINSTON 59 86 58 88 / 30 40 10 10
HILLSBORO 68 92 67 94 / 50 30 10 10
SPACEPORT 67 94 66 97 / 50 20 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 87 56 88 / 40 60 10 10
HURLEY 64 90 63 91 / 40 60 10 0
CLIFF 66 94 65 95 / 50 50 10 10
MULE CREEK 64 91 63 91 / 50 40 10 10
FAYWOOD 65 89 64 91 / 40 50 10 10
ANIMAS 69 94 68 93 / 50 20 30 10
HACHITA 68 93 67 93 / 50 20 30 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 92 66 91 / 50 40 30 20
CLOVERDALE 64 86 63 84 / 60 40 30 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
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