265
FXUS64 KEPZ 122301
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
501 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY, WITH THE LOWLANDS NEAR THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS OUT WEST EARLY ON AND SHIFTING AREAWIDE BY
MIDWEEK.
- DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN NEXT WEEK AND WITH DAILY SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL RAMP UP TO AN ACTIVE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE
BEST MONSOONAL PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. FOR THIS WEEKEND,
WE WILL START OUT WITH A WEAK UPPER HIGH NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH SOME BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS WHERE
WE WILL HAVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS, FOCUSED ON THE NM
BOOTHEEL AND THE GILA REGION MOVING EAST THROUGH SIERRA COUNTY.
VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT. AS THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE OK/AR AREA TOMORROW AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AREA BY MON, WE START SETTING UP A BETTER MOISTURE
PUSH WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF AND MORE SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS ALSO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. WESTERN ZONES
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS, BUT BOTH GFS AND EC SHOWING
OUTFLOWS PUSHING EAST AND WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ACTIVITY FURTHER
EAST INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT THE FAR WESTERN ZONES COULD BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL DEPENDING ON RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER.
AS WE GO INTO TUE-FRI, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EAST AND LINGERS AROUND THE
AREA THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. A GOOD MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES AND
PW'S START TO GET INTO THE 1.1-1.5" RANGE BY THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. STORM MOTIONS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 10KTS WITH A DEEP MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTING TRAINING STORMS. WITH ALL OF THIS IN
PLACE SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING. THINGS COULD CHANGE IF THIS
TROUGH PUSHES EAST QUICKER, BUT THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST WILL
LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR THAT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE DROPPING AND
BEING CLOSER TO NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT100 SCT-BKN200. ISOLATED
OVC060CB -TSRA WITH LOCAL OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STORMS MOSTLY DONE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 02Z. STORMS MOSTLY WEST
OF THE RG VALLEY OVER THE LOWLANDS AND ENDING BY AROUND 04Z.
BROADER SCALE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS DEVELOPING AFTER
03Z ACROSS HIDALGO, LUNA, DONA ANA, AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
NO FIRE DANGER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE DAILY STORM CHANCES, INITIALLY FOCUSED
OUT WEST BUT SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AS WE GET INTO MON/TUE ONWARD.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT, ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS MANY AREAS
WILL RECEIVE DAILY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE
NORMAL BUT START TO DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE FAIR TO
GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 100 73 97 / 0 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 72 97 67 93 / 10 10 20 0
LAS CRUCES 69 99 69 95 / 0 20 20 40
ALAMOGORDO 71 98 71 95 / 0 10 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 54 75 53 72 / 0 40 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 97 69 93 / 20 10 20 60
SILVER CITY 63 90 63 86 / 10 20 30 60
DEMING 70 99 68 94 / 0 20 30 50
LORDSBURG 69 94 69 90 / 0 20 30 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 100 74 96 / 0 20 20 10
DELL CITY 68 99 70 98 / 0 10 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 104 74 101 / 0 10 20 10
LOMA LINDA 68 93 68 89 / 0 10 20 10
FABENS 72 101 72 98 / 0 10 20 10
SANTA TERESA 71 98 70 95 / 0 20 30 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 100 74 96 / 0 10 20 30
JORNADA RANGE 66 98 70 95 / 10 10 20 40
HATCH 72 100 71 97 / 10 10 20 40
COLUMBUS 73 99 72 96 / 10 20 20 40
OROGRANDE 69 98 69 94 / 0 10 30 10
MAYHILL 59 88 58 85 / 10 40 20 50
MESCALERO 57 87 57 83 / 0 30 20 30
TIMBERON 55 85 56 81 / 0 20 20 20
WINSTON 59 87 58 83 / 30 40 20 70
HILLSBORO 69 96 69 91 / 20 20 20 50
SPACEPORT 68 98 68 94 / 10 10 20 60
LAKE ROBERTS 56 88 58 84 / 20 20 30 60
HURLEY 65 93 64 88 / 10 20 30 60
CLIFF 62 93 65 89 / 10 20 30 50
MULE CREEK 59 90 64 85 / 10 20 20 50
FAYWOOD 66 92 66 88 / 20 20 30 40
ANIMAS 69 94 68 91 / 10 40 40 50
HACHITA 68 95 68 90 / 10 30 30 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 94 66 90 / 20 40 40 40
CLOVERDALE 64 88 64 84 / 20 40 40 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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