243
FXUS64 KEPZ 142311
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
511 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. QUIET WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, BUT STILL BREEZY
EACH AFTERNOON. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID MAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
WE ARE LOOKING AT A TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS; THINGS ARE LOOKING DRY WITH BREEZY OR WINDY (BUT
NOT TOO WINDY) CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY, WE WILL HAVE A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, SO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY
WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR SATURDAY, A SLOW MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WINDS ON
SATURDAY IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY (15 TO 25 MPH) AND IN THE WINDY
CATEGORY (20 TO 30 MPH) FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY EITHER NEAR AVERAGE OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A BREEZY ZONAL
(WEST TO EAST) FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL KEEP US
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOW-END
GUSTS OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY 260-290 AT 12G20KT ACROSS S NM AND
KELP. SKIES BECOMING SKC-FEW150 ACROSS S NM, WITH SCT-BKN250
LINGERING OVER W TX. CLEAR SKIES AND MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, 240-270 AT 15G25KT. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON FOR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DAYS
WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MIN RH'S
TODAY WILL BE NEAR 10% IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS IN AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
15 TO 25 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE SECTION
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS WINDS, BUT MIN RH'S WILL GO
EVEN LOWER WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
LOWLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND GETTING DOWN CLOSE TO 10% IN AREA
MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND EXTREMELY LOW MIN
RH'S WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH ONLY MINOR INCREASES IN MIN RH'S BOTH DAYS. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EITHER SUNDAY OR
MONDAY OR POSSIBLY BOTH DAYS. STILL NO SIGN OF ANY RAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 93 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 62 89 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 67 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 59 92 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 57 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 92 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 96 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 64 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 95 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 61 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 89 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 61 92 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 93 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 62 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 52 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 51 75 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 49 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 59 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 58 88 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 81 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 53 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 87 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 83 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 56 84 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 89 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 83 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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