630
FXUS64 KEPZ 162342
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
442 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 438 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
BLOWING DUST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY REDUCING
VISIBILITY ON AREA ROADWAYS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY DRY HUMIDITY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPRING IS COMING THIS WEEK. INITIAL
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CA REGION AND LIFT
NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES, SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM EASTERN MT INTO
WESTERN NE. THIS ISN'T USUALLY CONDUCIVE TO OUR STRONGEST WINDS,
BUT THERE WILL BE H70 WINDS INCREASING TO 40-60KTS WITH ALMOST
100KTS AT H50. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BUT DECENT GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR ADVISORY OR NEAR ADVISORY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH HIGH
WINDS IN THE SACS. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WITH RECENT
RAINS, NOT CONFIDENT HOW DENSE IT WILL BE SO WILL NOT GO WITH ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR DUST AT THIS TIME AND SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT.
AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE SPRING SYSTEMS, THERE WILL BE SOME
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST BUT WILL LOSE MOISTURE BY THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. MAYBE AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW CAN BE SQUEEZED OUT ABOVE
7000FT IN THE GILA REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S EAST TO MID 50S EAST WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A SIMILAR SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR
PRECIPITATION. WINDS ALOFT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TUE, BUT WITH
BETTER HEATING AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, SHOULD MIX DOWN NICELY
WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS TO TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5
DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE RGV. A LITTLE "BREAK" IN WINDS
FOR THURSDAY BUT STILL IN THE BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE GILA REGION WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING IN.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS COME FRI BUT A QUICK LOOK AT THE
LATEST EC, IT IS COMING IN WITH A STRONGER TROUGH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WINDY DAY, POSSIBLY SIMILAR TO TUE.
AGAIN, ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND SNOW LEVELS LOOK
TO FALL DOWN TO AROUND 5000-6000FT.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WITH A BACK
DOOR ENTERING ON SAT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, BUT STILL REMAINING BREEZY. BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW, WINDS
REALLY START TO RAMP UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDY CONDITIONS MAY PRODUCE SOME BLDU BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOW DENSE THE DUST WILL BE. KELP AND KDMN WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING BLDU TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALMOST DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RH'S WILL BE HIGHER ON TUE WITH MIN RH'S RANGING FROM 25% EAST TO
40% WEST AND SOME 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH
GUSTS OVER 45 MPH AREAWIDE. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
RH'S FALLING INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
REMAIN STRONG AND WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A LITTLE
LESS WIND BUT STILL AT LEAST BREEZY THU WITH RH'S IN THE 20-35%
RANGE. FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TUE WITH JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH'S.
OVERALL THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS EVEN WITH RH'S BEING AT OR ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES MOST DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 55 69 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 70 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 63 37 67 / 0 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 64 37 65 / 0 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 40 27 41 / 0 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 62 36 64 / 0 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 49 31 53 / 10 70 0 0
DEMING 48 62 36 66 / 10 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 56 33 61 / 10 60 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 68 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 70 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 77 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 63 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 53 72 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 66 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 66 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 47 64 34 66 / 0 10 0 0
HATCH 51 64 36 67 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 65 40 68 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 65 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 46 55 32 55 / 0 10 0 0
MESCALERO 40 51 29 53 / 0 10 0 0
TIMBERON 41 50 33 51 / 0 10 0 0
WINSTON 40 51 26 55 / 10 30 0 0
HILLSBORO 45 57 34 60 / 10 30 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 62 30 64 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 47 26 53 / 20 70 0 0
HURLEY 42 53 31 57 / 10 60 0 0
CLIFF 41 53 29 56 / 20 80 0 10
MULE CREEK 40 51 28 53 / 40 90 0 10
FAYWOOD 44 54 34 57 / 10 50 0 0
ANIMAS 48 59 34 64 / 10 50 0 0
HACHITA 47 60 34 64 / 10 30 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 58 37 64 / 0 20 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 53 37 57 / 10 40 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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