304
FXUS64 KEPZ 060446
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1046 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- WE WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN WE SAW ON TUESDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90'S ON
SATURDAY.
- THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND WINDY (AND
DUSTY) CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY, IS CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WE WILL HAVE A ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP US
DRY AND OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A WEAK EAST PUSH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PUSH WILL BE DRY AND FLIP OUR
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. I WON'T CALL IT A COLD FRONT SINCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP BEHIND THE PUSH ON THURSDAY (BUT STILL BE
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE). FOR FRIDAY A WEAK AND DRY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER SINCE IT HAS LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RUN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
FOR THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND THAT WILL ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO JUMP SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF, SO IT
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY IT LOOKS LIKE, STARTING
THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE A STRING OF DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90'S IN THE LOWLANDS. I'M NOT SEEING
ANY STRONG WINDS OR SCORCHING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SO THAT IS A GOOD THING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE MOSTLY DROPPED OFF, BUT KELP MAY SEE SOME LOW
END WIND GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BE LOWER THAN
WHAT WE SAW ON TUESDAY. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY PUSHING
TO THE EAST AND BY MORNING WE WILL HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS. THOSE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FIRE CONCERNS AFTER TODAY. GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ELEVATE FIRE CONDITIONS SOME, BUT MIN HUMIDITIES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 15% THRESHOLD. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXPECTED, THOUGH EXPECT SHARP WIND SHIFTS TO EAST/NORTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY,
THOUGH WETTING RAIN CHANCES PRETTY LOW. NO OTHER PRECIP EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 18-25% THIS AFTERNOON, THEN 8-15% WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOUNTAINS 30-45% THIS AFTERNOON, THEN 12-23% WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY, EXCEPT THURSDAY AT GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 74 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 74 46 77 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 51 32 57 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 76 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 66 41 72 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 45 76 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 72 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 77 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 71 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 80 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 50 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 76 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 75 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 78 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 74 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 64 34 69 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 62 35 67 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 37 61 35 65 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 33 69 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 73 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 33 67 36 73 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 69 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 38 72 40 79 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 37 68 39 75 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 69 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 73 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 73 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 69 46 74 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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