440
FXUS64 KEPZ 241900
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
100 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND LOW HUMIDITY, BOTH DAYS THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS BOTH DAYS.
- THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY, AND MAY BE THE
STRONGEST WEST WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON SO FAR. ADVISORY OR
WARNING-LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY, WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST, AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- WEATHER MORE BENIGN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE SIT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY WARM, CONDITIONS
CONTINUE VERY DRY, WINDS LIGHTER, BUT STILL BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
THE BORDERLAND SITS UNDER A DEEP DRY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TODAY WITH GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT RELAXED, BUT DEEP MIXING ALLOWING
FOR BREEZY AND VERY DRY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. FOR THE WEEKEND WE
WILL SEE A 2-DAY RAMP UP OF WINDS AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
TOMORROW WILL SEE A MODERATE INCREASE IN WINDS, WITH A BIGGER JUMP
IN WIND SPEEDS ON SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY, SO WE DON'T HAVE TIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT, BUT THERE IS LOW
LEVEL SURFACE TROUGHING DEEPENING, ADDING TO OUR WIND REGIME.
SUNDAY THE SYSTEM OPENS AND PASSES WELL TO OUR NW OVER, AND NORTH,
OF THE FOUR CORNERS, AGAIN WE ARE PRETTY DISTANT FROM THE HEART
OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN, AND THE SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS AND SHIFTS CLOSER, OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE A 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
LOOKS LIKE A 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH AFTERNOON. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WIND PRODUCES, AS BOTH LOWLANDS
ADVISORIES, AND MOUNTAIN WARNINGS ARE RIDING THE EDGE OF CRITERIA.
DUST WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM FOR THE LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY WE ARE AGAIN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSAGES, THUS WE SEE LIGHTER WINDS, BUT VERY DRY
CONDITION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, WARM, BUT ONLY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN AVERAGES. RH WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, AFTER A
MINOR SUNDAY BUMP.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK INTERESTING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW LOOK
TO TAP A STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIRECT IT NE, ACROSS
THE BAJA, AND N SONORA, OVER OUR REGION. DEEP SW FLOW LOOKS TO
IMPORT THAT MOISTURE IN AND ALLOW FOR A MIX OF STRONGER WINDS,
MORE CLOUDS, HIGHER RH, A MINOR DROP IN TEMPERATURES, AND RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN SUPER CONSISTENT OR
RELIABLE IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 PERIODS, SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS POSSIBLE MOISTURE YET. STAY TUNED AS WE KEEP EYES ON IT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW150 SCT250.
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY WEST, INCREASING TO WEST 12-17G30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING SOME AFTER 02Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
..RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTER A RELATIVE BREAK, WITH LIGHTER WINDS, IN FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY, THE AREA WILL SEE CONDITIONS RISE BACK TO NEAR-
CRITICAL AND CRITICAL BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SATURDAY, THE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND GET
UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH G30-35 MPH. THE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE QUITE
DRY WITH MINRH STILL IN THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS. IT WILL
BE BORDERLINE OR LOW-END RED FLAG CONDITIONS. FOR SUNDAY, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS INCREASE. SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE WESTERN AREAS GET SOME MEAGER
MOISTURE GAINS ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BUMP MINRH ABOVE 15 PERCENT,
AND POSSIBLY HAS HIGH AS 20-25 PERCENT, BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE AFFECTS OF WEATHER ON THE FUELS. THUS BOTH DAYS HAVE
BEEN RED FLAGGED.
LIGHTER WINDS, BUT STILL BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS, FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE MINOR BUMP IN MOISTURE WILL DISAPPEAR WITH
MINRH BACK TO CRITICALLY LOW VALUES, WITH LOWLAND SINGLE DIGITS
AND MOUNTAIN TEENS. EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK LOOKS BREEZY WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH.
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH INCREASES IN MOISTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DRIVING UP
RH, FOR BETTER RECOVERIES, AND HIGHS MINIMUMS. IT APPEARS WE COULD
SEE OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY, LASTING
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 59 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 82 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 73 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 80 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 90 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 78 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 57 87 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 82 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 50 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 46 72 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 43 70 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 44 68 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 38 73 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 46 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 72 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 42 77 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 43 79 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 74 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 82 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 49 82 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 82 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 76 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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