664
FXUS64 KEPZ 262324
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
524 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
- A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHEAST, WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MOSTLY OVER OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY STILL LOOK RESPECTABLE, SO A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
APPROACH SEVERE (MAINLY FOR HAIL).
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD FINALLY GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN AND
STORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEST FLOW AND DRIER AIR SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW CUTTING THROUGH THE PAC NW
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...SUB-TROPICAL JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND
BRINGS SEVERAL IMPULSES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO NORTHERN
MEXICO AND OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE
MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AND BEGINS BRINGING MORE SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA. ONE IMPULSE MOVES UP TO THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO RETURN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN
FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY MAY BE
DRY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE DAY IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A BETTER DEFINED
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY REACHING SOCAL BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
PERIOD WITH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO HAVE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
GFS SHOWS ONLY VERY MODEST CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
RELATIVELY WEAK.
THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY FOR AREA WIDE CHANCES OF
RAIN, WITH MODELS THEN SHOWING A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AFTER
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) OF
A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM NEAR KELP OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AND MAINLY SKC. WINDS AOB 6KTS THROUGH AM, THEN
GUSTING TO UPPER TEENS AT KTCS LATE IN PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS WEEK, AS OTHER
THAN A BRIEF DRY SPELL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WE REMAIN IN THE
PATTERN FOR CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN
MTNS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE MID-WEEK DRY SPELL. NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN RHS: LOWLANDS 25% WEST TO 45% EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING
TO 40S-50% ALL LOWLANDS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
GILA/BLACK RANGE...25-35% THROUGH THURSDAY INCREASING TO 50-70%
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS...40-55% THROUGH
THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 55-75% FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. VENT RATES
POOR-FAIR THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 76 56 78 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 75 52 78 / 30 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 75 51 76 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 73 51 76 / 20 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 56 38 58 / 20 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 74 47 75 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 70 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 75 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 76 58 78 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 73 52 77 / 30 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 82 58 85 / 30 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 69 52 72 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 57 79 56 81 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 75 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 76 56 79 / 10 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 75 51 76 / 10 10 0 0
HATCH 53 79 51 80 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 72 49 75 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 68 43 71 / 40 10 0 0
MESCALERO 42 65 42 68 / 20 10 0 0
TIMBERON 41 62 40 65 / 30 20 0 0
WINSTON 39 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 75 47 76 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 73 48 75 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 34 70 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 73 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 35 76 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 72 30 72 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 71 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 51 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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