951
FXUS64 KEPZ 071754
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1054 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY EAST WINDS THIS WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
1024MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY HAS
ALLOWED OUR WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND OUT OF THE EAST THIS MORNING.
THESE EAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY, WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW-END BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH. MINIMAL CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. LOWLAND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S AGAIN, RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE EAST BUT LIGHTER
IN SPEED. NO HAZARDS.
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW WILL BEGIN
PROGRESSING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. INCREASING
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED (40-60%) RAIN
SHOWERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FAVORING
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OVERALL QPF IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, BEST
GUESS BEING IN THE 0.10-0.25 RANGE FOR RAIN TOTALS. WE MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY WITH
BREEZY WEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A
WARMING TREND, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, EITHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST TODAY 080-110 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. PEAK GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO
05-10 KNOTS, STILL OUT OF THE EAST. SKIES FEW-SCT120, SCT250 WITH
ISOLATED -RA ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO BREEZY EAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO EAST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND. WIND WILL BE BREEZY 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING
TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION. MIN RH 15-25%, HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. NO FIRE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
LOW FIRE DANGER MONDAY/TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES, BRINGING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. NEW PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY
0.10-0.25 OVER THE NM FORESTS. WINDS RETURN OUT OF THE WEST ON
TUESDAY, 15 TO 25 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. NEXT STRETCH
OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST AROUND NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 75 50 81 / 0 10 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 40 70 44 78 / 20 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 38 72 44 77 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 36 72 43 79 / 0 10 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 28 52 35 57 / 0 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 37 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 20
DEMING 40 74 43 78 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 41 72 42 76 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 74 51 80 / 0 10 0 10
DELL CITY 36 73 42 81 / 0 10 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 43 78 47 86 / 10 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 41 69 47 75 / 0 10 0 10
FABENS 44 77 48 83 / 0 10 0 10
SANTA TERESA 41 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 73 49 79 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 35 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 35 74 41 81 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 43 74 47 80 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 38 72 43 78 / 0 10 0 10
MAYHILL 30 66 38 70 / 0 10 0 10
MESCALERO 30 63 36 68 / 0 10 0 20
TIMBERON 34 61 40 65 / 0 10 0 20
WINSTON 28 64 33 68 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 38 69 44 75 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 33 72 39 77 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 31 66 38 70 / 0 0 0 20
HURLEY 35 68 40 72 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 33 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 34 70 39 73 / 0 0 0 20
FAYWOOD 39 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 39 73 42 77 / 0 0 0 20
HACHITA 39 72 42 76 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 72 43 77 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 42 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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