579
FXUS64 KEPZ 290440
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1040 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 940 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
- QUIET WEATHER WITH ANOTHER VERY DRY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TO NEAR-
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PATTERN CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH A PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SEEN TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH THAT
AFTERNOON. A CUTOFF LOW WILL COME ASHORE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY BUT BEFORE THEN VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AS TIME GOES ON. LATE
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY SEEM TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
THIS IS WHEN THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE OVERHEAD.
THE CUTOFF LOW ENERGY WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL JOIN THE CUTOFF
LOW ENERGY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
COULD HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LESSER SHOWERS. THE FINAL LOBE OF
ENERGY WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE MORNING. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF 15-20G20-25KT EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
(20Z-00Z).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
FOR WEDNESDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AREAWIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES TRENDING 1 TO 3 PERCENT UP FROM
TUESDAY, BUT STILL AT OR BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FROM TUESDAY, OUT OF THE WEST AT 7-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING WILL PROMOTE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT SMOKE VENTILATION RATES. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN RHS
THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL WITH LOWLAND RHS OF
15-25%. MIN RHS STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL CONTINUE EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 88 64 76 / 0 0 10 40
SIERRA BLANCA 60 84 62 75 / 0 0 10 30
LAS CRUCES 53 83 55 72 / 0 0 0 40
ALAMOGORDO 56 83 57 73 / 0 0 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 44 60 42 52 / 0 0 0 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 83 56 75 / 0 0 0 30
SILVER CITY 47 73 49 66 / 0 0 0 40
DEMING 51 85 52 75 / 0 0 0 50
LORDSBURG 49 80 52 72 / 0 0 0 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 86 65 74 / 0 0 10 40
DELL CITY 55 87 60 77 / 0 0 10 30
FORT HANCOCK 63 92 67 82 / 0 0 10 30
LOMA LINDA 60 80 60 70 / 0 0 10 40
FABENS 63 89 65 78 / 0 0 10 30
SANTA TERESA 58 85 60 73 / 0 0 10 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 84 65 74 / 0 0 10 40
JORNADA RANGE 52 84 57 73 / 0 0 0 40
HATCH 52 86 57 75 / 0 0 0 40
COLUMBUS 57 88 60 75 / 0 0 10 40
OROGRANDE 57 83 59 72 / 0 0 10 40
MAYHILL 48 74 47 64 / 0 0 0 40
MESCALERO 47 71 46 63 / 0 0 0 40
TIMBERON 47 70 46 60 / 0 0 10 40
WINSTON 40 75 44 68 / 0 0 0 30
HILLSBORO 52 81 55 72 / 0 0 0 40
SPACEPORT 49 83 53 73 / 0 0 0 30
LAKE ROBERTS 42 74 44 68 / 0 0 0 40
HURLEY 45 77 46 70 / 0 0 0 40
CLIFF 45 80 48 73 / 0 0 0 30
MULE CREEK 44 75 47 72 / 0 0 0 30
FAYWOOD 49 77 51 68 / 0 0 0 40
ANIMAS 51 83 54 72 / 0 0 10 50
HACHITA 51 84 53 71 / 0 0 10 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 84 56 72 / 0 0 10 50
CLOVERDALE 52 78 54 67 / 0 0 10 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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