146
FXUS64 KEPZ 271758
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1158 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1156 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
- THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE BENIGN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE
SIT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM, CONDITIONS CONTINUE VERY DRY, WINDS LIGHTER,
BUT STILL BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
YESTERDAY'S WIND/DUST MAKER (UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM) HAS EXITED THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL ROTATE A LOBE OF ENERGY EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN CONUS, THAT IS CURRENTLY PHASING WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGIONS. THIS PHASING WILL TO OVERLAY THE REGION WITH A MODEST UPPER
LEVEL JET, ALONG WITH INDUCING SUB-1000MB LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DOVER
SE COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION ON TODAY AND
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY DECREASING IN MAGNITUDE ON TUESDAY, BUT
REMAINING BREEZY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE END OF
APRIL. ON WEDNESDAY, WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RELAX, THUS WINDS DECREASING FURTHER IN MAGNITUDE
BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT.
THEREAFTER, MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
COMING MORE AND MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM'S
EVOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE DISCREPANCIES THAT REMAIN INCLUDE
THE TIMING OF SAID STORM SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THESE
TYPES OF DETAILS WILL GET IRONED OUT IN THE DAYS TO COME. THAT SAID,
EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO START INCREASING DURING THE WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME, WITH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY - LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AT
THIS MOMENT LOOK SUB-PAR, EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWER/STRATIFORM RAIN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES AS
THIS SYSTEM PASS THROUGH WILL BECOME WELL BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS
ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY 5-12 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW/W AT 15-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-28
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SKIES CURRENTLY SKC,
WILL BECOME FEW-SCT AT 25 KFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TODAY AND
TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL DROP TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BOTH
TODAY AND TUESDAY THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AREAWIDE. PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY/BORDERLINE RED
FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THAT SAID, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NMZ113. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER, MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
COMING MORE AND MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM'S
EVOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 47 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 59 43 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 82 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 73 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 45 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 43 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 57 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 50 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 91 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 78 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 50 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 47 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 48 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 82 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 73 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 70 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 69 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 74 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 80 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 82 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 74 43 73 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 40 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 40 79 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 38 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 43 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 44 83 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 45 77 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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