945
FXUS64 KEPZ 310449
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1049 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS. VERY SPOTTY, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE GILA REGION
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE ARIZONA, BUT SNEAKING INTO THE BOOTHEEL
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY VIRGA AGAIN WITH VERY ISOLATED MEASURABLE
PRECIP. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN A
FEW PLACES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO UTAH AND WESTERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, CARRYING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT
APPROACHES WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS, MOSTLY
WITH LIGHT PRECIP, WILL DEVELOP IN THE GILA BY LATE MORNING,
SPREADING INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWLAND DESERTS, WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO START LOFTING
BLOWING DUST ACROSS A BROADER AREA.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME LEFTOVER HIGH CLOUDS.
TUESDAY WILL BRING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MORNING, WITH SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN SW NEW MEXICO, AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM WEAK,
HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER SE ARIZONA AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
DRY LIGHTNING RISK NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR GILA NATIONAL
FOREST AS ISOLATED (10-20%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
MIN RH 20-30% WITH WIND OUT OF THE WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. VENTILATION
WILL BE VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EXCELLENT TOMORROW.
WINDS INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WEST FLOW 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. NO RED FLAG PLANNED DUE TO HIGHER
MOISTURE (MIN RH 30-40%) AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FOR GNF/LNF.
CONDITIONS BECOMING MUCH DRIER THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH DAYS. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THOSE DAYS, WITH RED FLAGS POSSIBLE IF WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE. COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE EAST NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING
LIGHTER WINDS, SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASES, AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW FIRE DANGER NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 87 62 80 / 10 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 83 57 79 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 84 55 76 / 0 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 52 84 55 75 / 10 0 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 43 61 43 53 / 0 0 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 83 57 74 / 20 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 50 75 49 64 / 10 10 20 40
DEMING 53 85 55 76 / 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 48 82 51 71 / 0 10 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 86 61 78 / 10 0 10 0
DELL CITY 50 87 54 81 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 55 90 59 86 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 80 52 73 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 58 88 60 83 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 56 85 58 76 / 10 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 86 61 77 / 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 46 85 50 74 / 10 10 10 10
HATCH 48 87 53 77 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 58 86 60 78 / 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 52 84 55 76 / 10 0 10 10
MAYHILL 45 75 46 67 / 0 0 0 40
MESCALERO 41 72 42 63 / 10 0 10 50
TIMBERON 43 70 42 63 / 0 0 0 30
WINSTON 43 75 44 65 / 20 10 10 40
HILLSBORO 53 82 53 71 / 20 10 20 30
SPACEPORT 47 84 50 73 / 20 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 36 75 39 63 / 20 10 20 50
HURLEY 47 78 48 68 / 10 10 20 20
CLIFF 42 81 44 70 / 10 10 20 50
MULE CREEK 40 77 42 66 / 10 10 20 50
FAYWOOD 49 79 50 68 / 10 0 20 20
ANIMAS 51 82 54 73 / 10 20 20 20
HACHITA 52 82 54 73 / 10 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 82 54 75 / 10 20 20 10
CLOVERDALE 49 77 50 69 / 20 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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