040
FXUS64 KEPZ 072338
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AFFECTING MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG WINDS, BLOWING DUST, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
- A DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REDUCE STORM CHANCES,
LIMITED MORE TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST, WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
TULAROSA BASIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN
AND OUT DURING THIS TIME. LOOKING AT WV, THERE IS STILL DECENT
MOISTURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NM WITH DRIER AIR SITTING IN
NORTHERN NM INTO CO WHICH WILL START MOVING IN FOR SAT, ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN CWA. THIS EVENING LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
STORMS MOVING NE TO SW WITH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. THE 12Z GFS CAME IN DRIER THIS EVENING BUT THEN BRINGS
AN AREA OF RAIN THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z-09Z. LOOKING
AT ENSEMBLES, THE SREF AND GEFS ALSO IN SUPPORT OF THIS, SO I DID
KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOW TO MID 70S COMMON.
FOR SAT, THE DRIER AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NNE. MAY GET A
FEW STORMS NEAR THE SACS AND THEN A STORM OR 2 ON THE LOWLANDS,
BUT THE GILA STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR 100
FOR THE LOWLANDS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN SAT NIGHT, SO ANY
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
MON AND TUE LOOK TO BE MIRRORS OF SUN WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY
STORMS BEING IN THE GILA REGION WITH JUST A COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS
IN THE SACS WHILE THE LOWLANDS REMAIN DRY. THE DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105
DURING THIS TIME. IF ANY HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED, IT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LOWER RGV.
GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER HIGH WILL FINALLY START TO
SHIFT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE MONSOONAL POSITION OFF TO THE EAST AND
WE SETUP A NICE DEEP ESE FLOW BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE AND
INCREASED STORM CHANCES AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STRUGGLE
TO GET ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS S NM AND W TX THIS EVENING, LIKELY AFFECTING
LOCAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-03Z TONIGHT. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
REACHING KELP NEXT FEW HOURS, LEADING TO TEMPORARY GUSTS IN THE
30-40KT RANGE. BLOWING DUST AND +TSRA WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY WITH
ANY DIRECT HITS OVER AIRPORTS. CONDITIONS CLEARING AFTER 04Z,
FOLLOWED BY VMC AND SURFACE WINDS 040-080 AT 5-10KT OVERNIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH NO MENTION OF TS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER HIGH
REMAINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RH'S SLOWLY FALLING. AT
THE CURRENT TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN THE LOWLANDS MIN RHS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 10%. THIS AFTN/EVE LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE BECOMING FOCUSED
MAINLY IN THE GILA REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH EXCEPT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 100 74 102 / 20 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 96 65 97 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 97 67 99 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 97 68 98 / 20 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 75 49 76 / 20 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 98 67 99 / 30 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 63 92 63 93 / 30 20 10 20
DEMING 69 99 69 100 / 40 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 69 98 68 99 / 20 0 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 99 74 101 / 20 10 0 0
DELL CITY 71 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 102 72 103 / 20 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 93 66 94 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 74 100 73 103 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 72 97 70 99 / 20 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 98 72 98 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 98 67 99 / 30 0 0 0
HATCH 70 101 68 102 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 99 70 100 / 30 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 97 68 97 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 86 56 87 / 10 10 0 10
MESCALERO 56 87 53 87 / 20 10 0 10
TIMBERON 55 84 50 85 / 20 20 0 10
WINSTON 60 91 58 92 / 30 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 66 97 64 97 / 30 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 67 98 66 98 / 30 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 91 50 91 / 30 20 10 40
HURLEY 64 95 62 95 / 30 10 0 10
CLIFF 65 98 58 99 / 20 30 10 20
MULE CREEK 63 95 52 95 / 20 40 10 20
FAYWOOD 66 94 64 95 / 30 10 0 0
ANIMAS 69 99 67 100 / 30 10 0 0
HACHITA 69 97 67 98 / 30 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 96 67 97 / 30 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 65 93 63 94 / 30 10 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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