738
FXUS64 KEPZ 101648
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1048 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS TODAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL END AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
- GUSTY WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS AND ALONG EAST SLOPES,
INCLUDING NORTHEAST EL PASO.
- DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
CLIMBING TOWARD RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SONORA WILL CONTINUE AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS CHIHUAHUA THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS GENERATED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS HOUR, MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. MOST OF THE EL PASO/LAS CRUCES AREA
WILL SEE RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
ALONG THIS PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVELY
FORCED ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. OVERALL, RAIN AMOUNTS 0.25-0.50" WILL
BE MOST COMMON TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE COOLER
TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUDINESS, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AROUND
SUNSET TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO OUR EAST AND SUBSIDENT
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM CAUSES CLOUDS TO QUICKLY CLEAR BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALONG WITH THE RAIN, BREEZY WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS AND ALONG EAST SLOPES. THIS
INCLUDED NORTHEAST EL PASO AND OTHER NEIGHBORHOODS ALONG THE
EASTERN FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS. WIND WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, FINALLY WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS TODAY'S SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO RECOVER, RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MID 70S.
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS
WEEK WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS, MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS, AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE EL PASO
THREATEN DAILY RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S WOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN USUAL FOR MID MARCH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW A COLD FRONT POURING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST
GOING FORWARD WILL BE CONSISTENTLY DRY AND VERY WARM AND MAY STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SCATTERED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS S NM AND W TX. TEMPORARY
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AND MVFR VISIBILITY WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS.
PREVAILING SKIES SCT-BKN040, BKN-OVC070 THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE WINDS 250-270 AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAIN CHANCES ENDING AFTER
03Z, WITH SKIES CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER. WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 260-280
20G30KT AT KELP AND KDMN. WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY LEADING TO LOW FIRE DANGER. MOUNTAIN
FORESTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SEE NEW RAIN AMOUNTS
0.25-0.50". BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM QUICKLY BACK TOWARD RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON RH
FALLS BACK DOWN TO 8-15% BY FRIDAY AS WEST FLOW RESUMES. NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH VERY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. WE WILL NEAR RED
FLAG CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 49 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 43 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 41 74 41 73 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 41 76 39 74 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 54 30 53 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 75 44 76 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 69 40 71 / 20 0 0 0
DEMING 44 77 43 76 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 72 41 76 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 39 75 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 46 80 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 43 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 48 78 45 79 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 75 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 77 46 75 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 38 76 37 75 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 41 79 40 77 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 48 77 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 41 74 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 39 65 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 34 65 32 63 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 36 63 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 69 32 72 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 45 74 43 74 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 39 75 37 75 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 35 69 35 71 / 20 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 72 38 72 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 36 75 37 77 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 37 71 37 74 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 41 72 43 71 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 41 72 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 72 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 72 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 39 68 45 73 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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