667
FXUS64 KEPZ 101131
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
- DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS, POSING A
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
- TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
TULAROSA BASIN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
UL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER WITH DRY, SUBSIDING FLOW BEING ADVECTED INTO THE CWA. THIS
PATTERN HAS GREATLY LIMITED STORM COVERAGE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
STORMS AND MAINLY OVER THE GILA. MORE OR LESS THIS PATTERN WILL
HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH THE 0Z HRRR IS SHOWING
INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY EVENING. I WILL
DISCOUNT IT FOR NOW SINCE THE HRRR HAS HAD A NOTABLE WET BIAS FOR
DAY 2 LATELY.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A PATTERN SHIFT AS THE H500
HIGH SHIFTS OVER TX AND OK, EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS
WILL TURN OUR FLOW FROM THE SOUTH, TAPPING INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE 50 WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AN INCH (NBM MEAN GENERALLY RANGES 1.1-1.3").
THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BACK INTO THE PICTURE, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FEW SYSTEMS
RIDING UP INTO AREA, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MOST NOTABLY, THE GFS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL WAVE MOVING UP FROM
MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MORE OR LESS STALLING
OVER NM. THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER VERSION OF THIS FEATURE AND
KEEPS IT OVER AZ. BOTH MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WAVE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT HERE TOO, BOTH MODELS DIFFER IN ITS
EVOLUTION AND TRACK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SE WINDS.
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS FEW-SCT100 WITH ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS W NM. NO
TS IMPACTS FOR LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE WINDS 150-180 AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO WETNESS OF
LOCAL FORESTS. ISOLATED (20-40%) THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR
GILA NF, BUT MUCH OF LINCOLN NF WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
LATE THIS WEEK. STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SE WINDS
TODAY, SHIFTING TO THE SW TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
20-FT WIND SPEEDS 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. GOOD
VENTILATION RATES EACH AFTERNOON. MIN RH 15-25%, WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AFTER WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 101 75 100 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 68 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 70 100 70 98 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 73 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 77 55 75 / 0 20 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 100 72 98 / 0 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 63 91 62 88 / 10 40 20 30
DEMING 70 101 68 97 / 0 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 68 97 67 92 / 10 10 50 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 101 76 99 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 70 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 75 104 75 102 / 0 0 10 20
LOMA LINDA 69 94 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 101 74 99 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 72 99 73 97 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 101 74 99 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 72 100 71 98 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 72 104 71 102 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 74 101 73 97 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 70 98 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 59 89 60 88 / 0 20 0 30
MESCALERO 59 88 59 87 / 0 10 10 30
TIMBERON 57 86 57 85 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 63 91 61 89 / 10 30 10 50
HILLSBORO 69 99 67 96 / 0 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 70 100 69 98 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 91 57 88 / 10 50 10 60
HURLEY 65 95 64 92 / 10 30 20 20
CLIFF 65 97 66 94 / 10 50 30 30
MULE CREEK 63 92 63 89 / 20 50 40 30
FAYWOOD 68 95 66 93 / 10 20 10 20
ANIMAS 69 97 67 91 / 20 20 60 30
HACHITA 69 97 67 92 / 10 10 30 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 95 66 89 / 10 30 40 60
CLOVERDALE 64 89 62 82 / 10 50 60 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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