593
FXUS64 KEPZ 011139
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
539 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A REVIEW OF THE HREF, HRRR, NBM, AND GFS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS DONA ANA COUNTY. THIS, COMBINED WITH
RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT AND KNOWN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS BETWEEN LAS
CRUCES AND EL PASO, LED TO ME EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY. THE OTHER UPDATE TO THE PACKAGE WAS
ADDING MENTION OF BLOWING DUST ALONG THE LORDSBURG PLAYA GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS
LARGELY ON TRACK FROM THIS EVENING'S ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HIGHS WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT TRIPLE DIGITS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CONTINUED DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOCUSING OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH ALMOST
ALL LOCATIONS HAVING A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE A STORM. BIGGEST THREAT
WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM OUTFLOWS (58+ MPH). SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL (1"+). FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS GREATEST
OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND OTERO MESA, AND A LOWER THREAT (BUT
STILL POSSIBLE) ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE MOVING INTO MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DESERT LOWLANDS STARTING MONDAY. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
ISO -SHRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH DIRECT
IMPACTS TO TAF SITES ARE VERY LOW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER,
SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO THE LOWLANDS BY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIOR, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS WILL
BE AFTER 0Z WITH TIMING, HOPEFULLY, A BIT CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES. OTHERWISE EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT MOST SITES WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10 KNOTS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. SKIES WILL
BE VARIABLE WITH BASES AS LOW AS 090, LOWER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A PASSING UL SYSTEM, AIDED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA, WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NOT-AS-HOT
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES AS WELL,
DROPPING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GOOD VENT CATEGORIES.
AFTER TODAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE HELD TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE IN
THE LOWLANDS. MONDAY WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH DECREASING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, HOWEVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 98 76 101 / 30 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 93 68 97 / 30 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 96 70 100 / 60 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 95 72 100 / 50 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 72 53 76 / 50 20 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 97 72 101 / 30 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 90 66 94 / 30 30 20 40
DEMING 69 97 72 102 / 40 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 71 97 72 99 / 40 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 97 76 100 / 30 10 0 10
DELL CITY 70 97 71 101 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 100 75 103 / 40 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 90 70 95 / 30 10 0 0
FABENS 74 99 74 101 / 40 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 72 96 73 100 / 30 10 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 97 76 100 / 60 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 96 72 100 / 70 0 0 0
HATCH 69 99 72 104 / 50 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 98 74 102 / 40 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 68 94 70 99 / 40 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 84 58 88 / 40 20 10 10
MESCALERO 55 83 58 88 / 60 20 10 10
TIMBERON 54 81 56 86 / 30 20 0 10
WINSTON 61 89 62 94 / 40 30 0 20
HILLSBORO 66 95 68 100 / 40 20 0 10
SPACEPORT 67 96 70 100 / 40 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 91 60 94 / 30 60 10 50
HURLEY 65 93 67 97 / 30 20 10 30
CLIFF 68 98 68 101 / 20 30 20 30
MULE CREEK 65 93 66 96 / 20 20 20 40
FAYWOOD 66 92 68 96 / 40 10 10 20
ANIMAS 71 97 72 101 / 60 10 10 10
HACHITA 69 96 71 99 / 50 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 96 70 99 / 40 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 67 92 67 94 / 50 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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