286
FXUS64 KEPZ 302330
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE US-54
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE GILA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN.
- MAINLY DRY AND HOTTER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGITS
RETURN FOR THE AREA AROUND THE FOURTH OF JULY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
CONTINUING FROM YESTERDAY, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT WEST BY
VIRTUE OF A TROUGH OVER ARIZONA, NEVADA, AND CALIFORNIA MEETS A
RIDGE OVER TENNESSEE, KENTUCKY, AND ARKANSAS, FUNNELING A PLUME OF
MOISTURE FROM CHIHUAUHA INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR TODAY. AN
ISOLATED (20-30%) CHANCE OF STORMS MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN EL PASO
COUNTY AS WELL, AND ANY OUTFLOWS GENERATED FROM THESE STORMS COULD
GENERATE BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO, THOUGH CHANCES
OF STORMS HAPPENING THERE ARE SLIM (10-20%). TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT AT THE MID-90S FOR THE REGION TODAY, AND STARTING
TOMORROW, A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL OCCUR.
DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO AS WE ENTER JULY. BY FRIDAY, THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL EVAPORATE AND AN UPPER- HIGH WILL MAKE ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. STORM CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SCATTERED TS ARE ONGOING SE OF KELP WITH AN OUTFLOW HEADING
TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. THE GUSTY OUTFLOW SHOULD ARRIVE AT KELP BY
2Z ALONG WITH POSSIBLE BLDU AND NEW TS DEVELOPMENT. OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE LESS IMPACTS WITH BREEZY SW WINDS TO 20-25KTS
CONTINUING THIS EVENING. WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO AOB 10KTS WITH
GUSTS RETURNING AROUND 18Z FROM S-SW. THE CONVECTION LIFTS
NE AFTER 3Z WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT E OF KELP TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
REPEATING FROM YESTERDAY, THE TROUGH OUT WEST AND THE RIDGE OUT
EAST WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR NEW MEXICO AND THE
GILA NATIONAL FOREST WHILE HUDSPETH COUNTY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS FOR
WESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-90S TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY RISING
BACK TO 100 DEGREES AROUND THE FOURTH OF JULY DUE TO A NEW HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CEMENTING ITSELF AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL DECREASE
TO THE UPPER-SINGLE-DIGITS ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 96 73 98 / 20 20 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 65 89 64 90 / 50 30 10 40
LAS CRUCES 67 95 66 96 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 95 68 96 / 20 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 51 72 51 73 / 20 20 10 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 95 66 97 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 88 59 90 / 20 0 0 0
DEMING 66 98 64 99 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 95 63 96 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 95 73 97 / 20 20 10 10
DELL CITY 67 94 66 94 / 50 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 71 96 71 97 / 40 20 10 30
LOMA LINDA 66 89 66 90 / 20 20 10 20
FABENS 71 97 71 98 / 30 20 10 10
SANTA TERESA 70 94 69 96 / 20 20 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 96 73 97 / 20 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 95 66 97 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 67 98 65 100 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 98 71 99 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 93 67 95 / 20 20 10 10
MAYHILL 56 83 55 84 / 20 30 20 50
MESCALERO 55 83 54 84 / 20 20 10 40
TIMBERON 52 80 52 81 / 20 10 10 30
WINSTON 57 87 55 89 / 20 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 64 93 63 95 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 95 62 96 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 54 89 53 91 / 20 0 0 0
HURLEY 61 91 59 93 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 60 94 59 96 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 58 90 57 92 / 20 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 63 91 62 92 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 95 63 96 / 20 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 95 63 96 / 20 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 95 65 96 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 89 61 90 / 20 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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