186
FXUS64 KEPZ 150417
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1017 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE ON MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SHARPLY WARMER FROM TUESDAY, REACHING
20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN
THE 90S WILL BE COMMON IN THE LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
STRONG SHORT-WAVE EXTENDING FROM RATON TO CASA GRANDE, AZ, WILL
CONTINUE SWEEPING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW BREEZY WINDS
TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE OVERALL AREA. MORE
LOCAL AREAS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WILL FLARE UP
ALONG EAST SIDES OF TERRAIN AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. SHORT-
WAVE IS THROUGH THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z, ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH SUNDAY, THOUGH STILL QUITE BREEZY THROUGH AROUND NOON.
THOUGH HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SACS NOT MATERIALIZING YET,
THOUGH SALINAS PEAK (UPWIND AND GENERAL ELEVATION AS THE SACS) DID
JUST RECORD A GUST TO 57 MPH. WARNING RUNS THROUGH THE END OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE CONDITIONS ARE THE OTHER CONCERN. RED FLAG
WARNING ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE SACS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS SUNDAY LOOKS MORE IFFY, AS
STRONGER MORNING WINDS COUPLE WITH HUMIDITY TOO HIGH FOR CRITERIA.
BY THE TIME MIN HUMIDITY IS REACHED IN THE AFTERNOON, THE WINDS
LIKELY WILL BE TOO WEAK. BUT WILL LEAVE THE WATCH OUT FOR NOW AND
LET NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON UPGRADE OR CANCELLATION.
STRONG LOOKING BACK DOOR COLDFRONT MOVES HITS THE FAR EASTERN CWA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SWEEPS WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. FRONT MAKES IT OUT TO THE CONT DIVIDE
OR POSSIBLY TO AZ STATE LINE BEFORE RETREATING EAST BACK TO THE RG
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR STAYS MOSTLY FROM THE RG
VALLEY EAST, WITH TEMPS WEST REMAINING JUST ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE
TEMPS TO THE EAST FALL TO AROUND TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.
ENJOY THE MODERATED TEMPERATURES MONDAY, BECAUSE THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL SEE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH RAPIDLY BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND FROM MONDAY,
REACHING AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE/WED, AND 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY, MANY
LOWLAND SITES COULD RECORD THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR.
AT EL PASO THE EARLIEST EVER 90+ DEGREE DAY IS MARCH 18
(WEDNESDAY). FIRE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR-CRITICAL AS VERY
LOW HUMIDITY AND DRYING OF FUELS CONTINUE. FORTUNATELY, NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS APPEAR IN THE FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT150 SCT-BKN250.
SURFACE WINDS WEST/NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
ALONG EAST SLOPES OF TERRAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER 15Z TO NORTHWEST 12-17G25 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WEST/NORTHWEST 35-40 KNOTS BELOW 020 TIL AROUND 15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WE'LL LIKELY SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLACK RANGE
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER WIND ALOFT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE
TONIGHT, BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS, WITH LITTLE TO NO RH RECOVERY. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN THE SACRAMENTOS REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WHEN THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AN
UNUSUAL TIME OF DAY.
SUNDAY IS LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE AS THE PEAK WINDS OVER THE
SACRAMENTOS LOOK TO SUBSIDE BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL WINDS IN
THE LOWLANDS INCREASE AGAIN. BY AFTERNOON, WINDS LOOK A LITTLE
MARGINAL FOR REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME
BEING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING ALL TIME
MONTHLY RECORDS. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT AS
WELL. WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD,
MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE BIGGER ISSUE MIGHT BE WITH
IMPACTS TO FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 84 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 79 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 49 81 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 80 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 57 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 81 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 74 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 84 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 43 79 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 82 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 50 83 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 86 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 76 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 85 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 82 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 84 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 83 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 86 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 84 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 43 79 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 71 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 41 69 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 43 68 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 42 74 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 82 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 81 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 34 76 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 44 76 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 33 81 34 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 77 30 73 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 78 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 81 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 79 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 81 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH
COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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