914
FXUS64 KEPZ 082318
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
518 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY.
- A BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY THIS SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY, BUT THE WARMING WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY, FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE CUT-OFF LOW SITS
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA. WE'LL BE UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW, BUT WON'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
THE SHORT-TERM. SOME CU BUILD-UP IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, OTHERWISE WE'LL SEE FEW-
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY,
HOLDING FROM THE E-SE.
FOR MONDAY, THE LOW INCHES EASTWARD OVER BAJA AS SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MON PM WILL BE IN FAR WEST TX WHERE DEW POINTS REACH
THE 40S. CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
NEAR 35KTS, SO THE UPDRAFTS WON'T BE VERY ROBUST, BUT A FEW GUSTY
OUTFLOWS TO 40-50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE GUST FRONTS MAY KICK
UP DUST AS WELL. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON
EVENING, BUT NON-ZERO.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SONORA MON NIGHT, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
OUT WEST BY TUE AM, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS. THE PACIFIC
FRONT COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUE, BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TUE, BUT THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND KEEP RAIN INTENSITY MOSTLY LIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH TUE EVENING AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. COOLER
TEMPS ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO ABOUT
8500FT ON TUE, SO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. BREEZY TO WINDY FROM
THE WEST (20-30 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR TUE PM, MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE TX PANHANDLE. E MTN SLOPES WILL SEE
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CALM WEATHER IS MODELED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS WEAK NW FLOW TAKES
OVER. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE DESERT SW INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
KEEPING THE STORM TRACK AND ANY STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF
US. PRECIP CHANCES FALL TO ZERO AFTER TUE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON, FALLING
TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUE BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT. ONCE THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN AROUND MIDWEEK, TEMPS WARM UP WITH LOWLAND HIGHS REACHING
THE 80S AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND. SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
CHALLENGED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IS HISTORIC HEAT (FOR
MARCH) ON THE WAY? WATCH OUT FOR THE MAR 18-21 TIMEFRAME!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SKIES SKC TO
FEW/SCT130. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON WINDS FAVORINGS SSE TO SSW IN THE
5-10KT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 MPH AT 20-FT ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH
MIN RHS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MON NIGHT THRU TUE, KNOCKING ERCS BACK DOWN TOWARDS
THE 50TH PERCENTILE. WINDS GET A BIT BREEZIER FOR MON FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN HUMIDITY.
THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MON PM, MAINLY E
OF THE US-54 CORRIDOR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 MPH AND DRY
LIGHTNING COULD BE SEEN LATER ON MON. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR TUE AS W WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY. WINDS STAY ELEVATED THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING ON
WED. CALMER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AND NO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FUELS RETURN TO THEIR DRYING
TREND ON WED, BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE THROUGH MID-MARCH.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 12-25% THROUGH MON, 30-60% ON TUE, THEN
RETURNING TO NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO
VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 49 82 51 66 / 0 20 30 80
SIERRA BLANCA 45 78 45 64 / 0 20 30 70
LAS CRUCES 44 77 45 61 / 0 10 50 80
ALAMOGORDO 43 78 45 64 / 0 10 40 70
CLOUDCROFT 35 57 35 43 / 0 20 50 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 77 48 64 / 0 0 60 80
SILVER CITY 42 70 40 54 / 0 10 80 90
DEMING 43 80 46 64 / 0 10 70 80
LORDSBURG 42 77 44 60 / 0 10 80 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 81 51 64 / 0 20 40 80
DELL CITY 42 81 45 67 / 0 20 10 50
FORT HANCOCK 47 86 48 70 / 0 20 20 70
LOMA LINDA 48 75 46 59 / 0 20 30 70
FABENS 49 85 49 67 / 0 20 30 80
SANTA TERESA 46 79 47 63 / 0 10 40 80
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 80 50 64 / 0 10 40 80
JORNADA RANGE 41 79 43 64 / 0 10 60 80
HATCH 41 81 46 66 / 0 10 60 80
COLUMBUS 46 80 49 64 / 0 10 50 70
OROGRANDE 44 78 45 63 / 0 20 30 70
MAYHILL 39 71 40 58 / 0 20 40 70
MESCALERO 37 68 38 54 / 0 10 60 80
TIMBERON 39 66 39 51 / 0 20 40 80
WINSTON 33 70 34 57 / 0 10 70 90
HILLSBORO 44 75 44 62 / 0 10 70 80
SPACEPORT 39 77 41 64 / 0 10 60 80
LAKE ROBERTS 37 70 37 53 / 0 10 80 90
HURLEY 40 73 39 56 / 0 10 80 80
CLIFF 39 77 42 61 / 0 10 80 90
MULE CREEK 39 73 40 56 / 0 10 80 80
FAYWOOD 44 73 43 58 / 0 10 80 80
ANIMAS 42 78 45 61 / 0 10 80 70
HACHITA 42 77 43 61 / 0 10 70 70
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 78 43 61 / 0 10 70 70
CLOVERDALE 46 72 42 55 / 0 10 80 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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