102
FXUS64 KEPZ 140345
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
945 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY,
LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID MAY.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CREATING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
UPPER RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL FLUSH OUT YESTERDAY'S MOISTURE AND LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH LESS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE,
WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVER. 994MB LEE SURFACE LOW CENTERED
OVER SE COLORADO WILL EXTEND A PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST NEAR THE USUAL
SENSITIVE AREAS, BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER AS HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN USUAL FOR MID-MAY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-TO-MID 90S.
VERY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL BE CONSISTENTLY SUNNY, WARM, AND BREEZY EACH DAY. LONGWAVE
TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE PRIMARY JET FLOW
TO OUR NORTH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO FEATURE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE PERIOD (20 TO 30 MPH), THOUGH STILL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SUBTLE COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR, WITH
HIGHS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
WINDS 240-280 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, WITH SKIES FEW150 SCT-
BKN250. BREEZY, CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW GENERALLY
240-270 AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS MIDDAY. NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. MIN RH FALLING TO 10 TO 15%,
WITH YESTERDAY'S MOISTURE FLUSHING OUT TO THE EAST. STILL LEANING
TOWARD UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN NM, INCLUDING LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST. RH WILL
EASILY REACH CRITERIA, BUT WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE. DECISION TO
BE MADE THURSDAY MORNING.
VERY STAGNANT AND CONSISTENT DRY, WARM WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON,
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MIN RH 10 TO 15% EACH
DAY INTO NEXT WEEK. REPEATING PATTERN OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS EACH DAY. FUEL CONDITIONS WILL DRY QUICKLY, LIFTING
ERCS BEYOND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. RED FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY ONWARD, CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR MID-MAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 95 70 93 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 91 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 92 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 70 48 67 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 57 83 54 81 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 61 93 59 91 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 89 57 87 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 93 68 91 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 65 87 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 96 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 92 62 90 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 93 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 92 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 63 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 66 94 64 92 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 65 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 83 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 55 81 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 53 78 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 51 83 48 81 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 62 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 91 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 52 83 49 81 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 57 86 53 84 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 52 89 50 87 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 52 85 50 83 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 86 55 83 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 58 90 55 88 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 60 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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