954
FXUS64 KEPZ 291706
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 925 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL REMNANTS OF POLO WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND TODAY.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT WEEKS.
- NEW RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE.
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TUESDAY EVENING FOCUSING OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS AND OTERO COUNTY.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE
IS PUSHED EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE POLO'S
REMNANTS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOODING FOR THE REGION TODAY.
THE 12Z KEPZ SOUNDING SHOWS PW AT 1.55 INCHES, BEATING THE DAILY
RECORD OF 1.38 INCHES FOR SEPTEMBER 29, THANKS TO THIS CONTINUED
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP BY A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS IN THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST MAY RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES.
POLO'S CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN FAR WEST TEXAS AROUND 6
PM THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING THE RISK OF UP TO 60 MPH
GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EL PASO COUNTY,
HUDSPETH COUNTY, AND OTERO COUNTY. THESE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN REACHES OF DONA ANA AND SIERRA COUNTIES, ARE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS POLO'S DYING CIRCULATION AND THE PACIFIC
TROUGH PUSH SOME DRY AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOOD THREAT
SHOULD BE OVER.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES WELL TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH
BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED THOUGH, AND BOTH MODELS HAVE A WEAK
CUTOFF LOW DRIFTING BACK TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY, SO A
FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
FURTHER OUT, BOTH THE EXTENDED GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH STEERING RACHEL AWAY FROM LAND, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
THREAT TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW SURROUNDING THE HIGH THAT COULD ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AROUND MONDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME,
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE THE REGION WILL GET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
EACH OF THE FOUR TAF SITES WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ONE POINT OR ANOTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY. STORMS WILL TURN CONVECTIVE AS POLO'S
CIRCULATION MOVES INTO EAST EL PASO COUNTY AROUND 00Z. CEILINGS
WILL HOVER AROUND MVFR AND IFR AS LOW THUNDERSTORM BASES MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 2SM. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE
FROM POLO'S REMNANTS, ESPECIALLY AT KELP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
10KT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS POLO'S CIRCULATION
MOVES NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 925 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
HEAVY RAIN WILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW FOR TODAY. RAIN WILL BE
SEEN ALL ACROSS THE REGION AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM POLO'S
REMNANTS, AS WELL AS A PACIFIC LOW OVER NEVADA, CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE GILA WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.
LOWLAND MIN RHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 60-80%, AND MOUNTAIN MIN RHS
90-100%. DRIER AIR ON WEDNESDAY WILL DIP MIN RHS IN THE LOWLANDS
TO 40-50% AND 70-85% IN THE MOUNTAINS. MIN RHS FROM THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 35-50% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 60-70% IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
BREEZY 20 FT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH (GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE) WILL KEEP VENTILATION RATES MAINLY
POOR TODAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO GOOD TOMORROW AS THE MIXING HEIGHTS
INCREASE TO 5500-7000 FEET FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 73 55 77 / 90 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 73 53 74 / 90 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 56 69 52 75 / 100 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 70 53 74 / 100 40 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 42 50 38 55 / 100 50 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 70 53 73 / 100 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 50 62 48 71 / 100 60 10 0
DEMING 54 71 52 77 / 100 20 10 0
LORDSBURG 53 68 53 74 / 90 40 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 73 57 77 / 90 10 10 0
DELL CITY 62 75 54 77 / 100 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 63 81 58 82 / 80 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 66 51 70 / 100 10 10 0
FABENS 62 77 56 80 / 80 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 72 54 76 / 90 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 72 56 76 / 100 30 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 56 70 52 75 / 100 30 10 0
HATCH 56 72 53 78 / 100 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 57 73 56 78 / 90 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 57 69 52 73 / 100 20 20 0
MAYHILL 47 64 45 66 / 100 20 20 10
MESCALERO 47 60 44 65 / 100 50 30 10
TIMBERON 48 58 41 62 / 100 50 20 20
WINSTON 46 64 46 68 / 100 20 10 0
HILLSBORO 53 70 52 74 / 100 20 10 0
SPACEPORT 54 70 51 74 / 100 20 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 61 44 72 / 100 70 10 0
HURLEY 51 65 49 73 / 90 50 10 0
CLIFF 54 68 51 78 / 100 70 10 0
MULE CREEK 50 63 49 75 / 100 80 10 0
FAYWOOD 52 65 50 72 / 100 40 10 0
ANIMAS 55 71 54 75 / 90 20 10 0
HACHITA 53 70 52 75 / 90 20 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 72 53 75 / 80 0 10 0
CLOVERDALE 52 65 51 71 / 100 20 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER
CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK
RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES
BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
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