031
FXUS64 KEPZ 091123
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
523 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH STORM CHANCES
LIMITED TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS.
- TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
TULAROSA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
UL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, AND DRY AIR HAS
CIRCULATED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. PW VALUES
ARE UNDER AN 1" WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, FURTHER REDUCING INSTABILITY. THE RESULT
HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN FOR CONVECTION WITH ONLY A FEW
STORMS FORMING IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL PRETTY MUCH
REMAIN IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY THE GILA AND
FAR WESTERN LOWLANDS HAVING A CHANCE FOR STORMS. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOWLANDS NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 100.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE.
THE HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN WITH THE
DOMINANT HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE CWA TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH A SUBTROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE--A MORE CLASSIC MONSOONAL
PATTERN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK THOUGH THE NBM IS PLAYING CONSERVATIVE IN
THE LOWLANDS, BUT GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST BE ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS GIVEN PW VALUES OVER AN
INCH. GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME DOWN AT LEAST A LITTLE AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SURFACE WINDS 100-104 AT 5-10
KNOTS AND SKIES SKC-FEW100. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPING
AFTER 21Z, BUT NO TS RISK FOR LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO WETNESS OF LOCAL
FORESTS. ISOLATED (20-40%) THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR GILA
NF, BUT MUCH OF LINCOLN NF WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF SUDDEN, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND NEW
LIGHTNING STARTS. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SE TODAY AND MONDAY,
SHIFTING TO THE SW TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MIN RH
15-25%, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AFTER WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 96 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 77 54 77 / 0 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 93 63 92 / 10 20 0 30
DEMING 68 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 70 99 69 97 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 99 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 103 75 104 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 70 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 89 59 90 / 0 10 0 20
MESCALERO 57 88 59 89 / 0 10 0 20
TIMBERON 55 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 61 92 63 92 / 0 10 0 20
HILLSBORO 68 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 69 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 92 59 91 / 10 30 0 50
HURLEY 65 96 65 95 / 10 10 0 10
CLIFF 66 100 67 98 / 20 30 10 40
MULE CREEK 65 95 64 93 / 30 40 20 50
FAYWOOD 67 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 69 99 69 97 / 0 0 20 20
HACHITA 69 98 69 97 / 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 97 68 95 / 0 0 0 30
CLOVERDALE 64 92 64 89 / 0 10 20 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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