442
FXUS64 KEPZ 250440
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
940 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 845 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP A MIXED BAG OF LIQUID, FREEZING, AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET WILL 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET OF SNOWFALL TOTALS.
- UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE TULAROSA BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF HUDSEPTH COUNTY, WITH UP TO AN INCH IN EL PASO.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR EASTERN AREAS AND AS COLD AS 15 BELOW FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 935 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
OUR COUNTRY'S BIG WINTER STORM CONTINUES WITH LOCAL IMPACTS
ALREADY UNDERWAY. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ARE ALL SNOW AT THIS
POINT WITH IMPACTS REPORTED FROM PREVIOUS SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS HARD TO SAY THE PRECIP TYPE OVER HUDSPETH
COUNTY, BUT PORTIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 20S, SO ANY PRECIP THERE IS
FROZEN OR FREEZING. THIS COLDER AIR IS MAKING A VERY SLOW MOVE TO
THE WEST, BEING HELD BACK BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE BAJA LOW IS PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE BACK EDGE OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS S/W HAS CLEARED THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA. THE BREAK BEHIND IT WON'T LAST LONG THOUGH AS ANOTHER S/W
TROUGH IS APPROACHING US FROM NE AZ. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GILA INTO
SIERRA COUNTY. ONCE THIS LAST TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA, SOMETIME
SUNDAY MORNING, IT WILL TAKE PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT.
A VERY GENEROUS AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES SHOWING 0.5-1.00" OF RAINFALL FROM THE AZ BORDER TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH THE REST OF THE CWA RECEIVING 1.00-1.50",
LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2". IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ANOTHER
0.25-0.5", LOCALLY HIGHER, COULD FALL. WEST OF THE SLOW MOVING
ARCTIC FRONT WILL FALL AS RAIN, EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN WESTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR AND WHEN PRECIPITATION ENDS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR EL PASO AND ACROSS SIERRA COUNTY, BUT
FOR THE MOST PART, THE REST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS
GOOD. CURRENT FORECAST FALLS SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS (1") IN EL
PASO, BUT I DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO WALK BACK THE PRODUCT AS
1" OR SO IS STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE COLDER AIR CAN ARRIVE
SOON ENOUGH.
SPEAKING OF THE COLD, TOMORROW MORNING'S TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN
ZONES WILL BE DOWN RIGHT FRIGID WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S COMMON, FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY AND NEAR ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
THIS REASON A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OTERO COUNTY FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL NOT BE QUITE
COLD ENOUGH TO NEED HEADLINES. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER CHILLY TOO,
AND THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE SAME
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY REACHING
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY NUDGE
EAST WHILE A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE QUICKLY DAMPENED OUT BY PASSING S/W TROUGHS.
THESE SAME S/W TROUGHS WILL ALSO SLOW OUR WARMING TREND VIA WEAK
FRONTS. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED A COMPACT UL LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE STILL HINTS OF THAT, BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA. NBM STILL HAS SOME
PHANTOM POPS FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 935 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
AN UL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH PRECIP COMPLETELY
COMING TO AN END BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
PERIODS OF DENSE FOG. RA IS STILL EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND BECOME
SN LATER THIS MORNING, BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LATEST
FORECAST IS FOR CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FOR KELP,
AROUND 12Z FOR TCS, AND BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FOR LRU. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL RA FOR DMN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KNOTS. AFTER 18Z, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NEAR NIL DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, DESPITE THE
GILA REGION MISSING OUT ON MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW. WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS BRINGING TONS OF MOISTURE, THE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW
NORMAL, RH IS EXCEEDINGLY ELEVATED, CLOUDS ARE SOLID, THICK, AND
LOW. THE SACS WILL SEE 8-15" OF SNOW, AND WELL OVER 1" OF LIQUID,
BEFORE THIS IS OVER SUNDAY MORNING. THE GILA WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT
SNOW, AND 0.50 TO 0.75" OF LIQUID. MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE
A GOOD, AND SLOW SOAKING OF 0.50 TO 1.50". THIS WILL DEFINITELY
MOISTEN FUELS AND DROP ERCS BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY MIDDAY, WITH DRY, BUT CHILLY, NW
FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. THE PRECIP WILL END, AND CLOUDS WILL
ERODE. MINRH WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY, INTO THE TEENS AND 20% RANGE
GILA, BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 20-30% RANGE ALL OTHER AREAS. NIGHT
MAXRH WILL BE GOOD. THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, UNTIL WEEK'S
END. SUNNY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY QUICKLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT LATEST
MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 29 44 21 47 / 100 90 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 19 31 11 38 / 100 100 0 0
LAS CRUCES 29 43 20 45 / 100 80 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 22 36 11 41 / 100 100 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 13 23 8 27 / 100 90 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 27 44 24 45 / 90 70 0 0
SILVER CITY 29 45 24 45 / 80 60 0 0
DEMING 36 52 24 50 / 90 60 0 0
LORDSBURG 33 50 22 48 / 90 50 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 31 44 26 45 / 100 80 0 0
DELL CITY 15 29 6 34 / 100 90 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 26 42 19 47 / 100 100 0 0
LOMA LINDA 18 32 18 36 / 100 90 0 0
FABENS 26 42 20 46 / 100 100 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 44 21 45 / 100 80 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 27 41 20 43 / 100 90 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 27 43 14 44 / 90 90 0 0
HATCH 31 49 19 49 / 90 80 0 0
COLUMBUS 40 53 27 50 / 100 60 0 0
OROGRANDE 20 35 13 39 / 100 90 0 0
MAYHILL 7 33 11 39 / 100 90 0 0
MESCALERO 12 31 11 37 / 100 90 0 0
TIMBERON 13 29 11 33 / 100 90 0 0
WINSTON 20 42 13 42 / 80 50 0 0
HILLSBORO 28 47 24 46 / 80 70 0 0
SPACEPORT 25 44 15 45 / 90 80 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 25 44 19 47 / 80 60 0 0
HURLEY 30 48 20 47 / 80 60 0 0
CLIFF 28 52 20 52 / 80 50 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 48 24 49 / 90 30 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 47 26 45 / 80 60 0 0
ANIMAS 36 53 26 50 / 100 40 0 0
HACHITA 36 51 24 48 / 100 40 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 54 26 50 / 100 60 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 48 30 46 / 100 50 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS.
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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