638
FXUS64 KEPZ 201705
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1105 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR TODAY AND MONDAY, SIGNIFICANTLY
RESTRICTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
- A RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVY
RAIN WILL POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AREA WIDE, BUT FAVORING
AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL.
- NEXT WEEKEND UNSETTLED, BUT STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MAIN TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS HAS FLUSHED THE LAYERED
MOISTURE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. DEWPOINTS, THOUGH STILL HIGH THIS
MORNING, SHOULD DROP THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOW UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. HENCE, DON'T EXPECT MANY,
IF ANY, THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MOUNTAINS STILL HAVE A NON-ZERO CHANCE
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN WEATHER GRIDS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME AS NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES ON TO SOCAL AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVES OVER OUR AREA. MOISTURE TICKS UP SLIGHTLY SO
JUST A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SOCAL LOW DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER SOCAL. THIS WILL
BEGIN RAPIDLY DRAWING UP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE HELP OF WEAK
WAVE ALOFT AND INCREASING STRENGTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS PERIOD, WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY, ALONG WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING PWS APPROACH 1.50 INCHES, WHICH IS CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
THAT DATE. PWS DO LOWER SOME, DOWN TO 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES REST OF THIS
PERIOD.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH TEXAS, AND POSSIBLY
REDUCING MOISTURE TAP OVER OUR AREA. GFS IS ESPECIALLY BEARISH ON
PRECIP CHANCES. IN A FURTHER FIT OF DIVERGENCE, ECMWF STILL MOVES
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS (POLO?) UP OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN. THESE ARE YESTERDAY'S/LAST
NIGHT'S MODEL RUNS SO HOPEFULLY THIS MORNING'S RUNS CAN UNITE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS A LITTLE BETTER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT100 SCT250.
VERY LOW CHANCE (NON-ZERO) OF BKN070CB -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. INCREASING LAYERS ABOVE FL200 AFTER 22Z. SURFACE
WINDS WEST 7-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FIRE CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEK AHEAD. A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND MONDAY WITH HUMIDITY, WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM TODAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE
(HUMIDITY) INCREASING RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TO ALL FIRE
ZONES, AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
ISOLATED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS15-20% MONDAY, INCREASING TO 35-50% TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 20-30% MONDAY INCREASING TO 60-80%
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD MONDAY/TUESDAY,
BECOMING MOSTLY POOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 93 70 87 / 0 0 20 60
SIERRA BLANCA 63 92 64 85 / 0 0 10 40
LAS CRUCES 62 90 65 84 / 0 0 20 70
ALAMOGORDO 64 91 64 86 / 0 0 20 80
CLOUDCROFT 49 70 49 64 / 0 10 30 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 87 63 80 / 0 0 30 80
SILVER CITY 60 84 59 78 / 0 0 20 60
DEMING 62 92 65 85 / 0 0 20 70
LORDSBURG 65 90 67 84 / 0 0 10 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 92 71 86 / 0 0 20 60
DELL CITY 63 94 65 86 / 0 0 10 50
FORT HANCOCK 69 98 71 93 / 0 0 10 40
LOMA LINDA 64 87 63 81 / 0 0 10 60
FABENS 65 95 69 89 / 0 0 20 60
SANTA TERESA 62 91 68 86 / 0 0 20 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 93 69 86 / 0 0 20 80
JORNADA RANGE 63 91 66 84 / 0 0 30 80
HATCH 63 93 66 86 / 0 0 20 80
COLUMBUS 65 94 69 87 / 0 0 20 70
OROGRANDE 62 91 66 85 / 0 0 20 60
MAYHILL 55 82 54 73 / 0 10 40 80
MESCALERO 53 81 53 74 / 0 10 20 90
TIMBERON 53 79 53 72 / 0 10 20 80
WINSTON 55 79 56 72 / 0 10 20 80
HILLSBORO 65 87 64 80 / 0 0 30 80
SPACEPORT 61 89 63 82 / 0 0 30 90
LAKE ROBERTS 48 82 49 75 / 0 0 20 70
HURLEY 59 86 61 80 / 0 0 20 60
CLIFF 50 89 51 84 / 0 0 20 60
MULE CREEK 48 85 48 80 / 0 0 10 60
FAYWOOD 61 86 63 79 / 0 0 20 70
ANIMAS 67 91 67 85 / 0 0 10 50
HACHITA 65 90 66 84 / 0 0 10 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 91 66 85 / 0 0 20 60
CLOVERDALE 62 86 63 81 / 0 0 20 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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