892
FXUS64 KEPZ 250434
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1034 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS, AND
OF COURSE LIGHTNING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED TOMORROW, I'M NOT SAYING CANCEL
ANY OF THEM, BUT DEFINITELY HAVE A BACKUP INDOOR PLAN JUST TO BE
SAFE. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN AS THE BETTER LIFT AND DYNAMICS APPROACH THE
REGION WE WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WON'T BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, BUT WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE
EAST.
ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR
THE AREA, BUT DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE ROLLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT IT WILL
BE MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF LAS CRUCES. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE WILL HAVE A ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW
WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP US DRY AND HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE WEEKEND;
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LURK JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. RIGHT
NOW THE EXTENDED MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST, BUT IF SOME
MOISTURE SLIPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WE WILL HAVE A QUIET NIGHT EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT, BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARRIVE MID DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH CAN
TRAVEL GREAT DISTANCES FROM THEIR PARENT THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TONIGHT, CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED EAST OF THE RIVER, BUT MID AND
HIGH CEILINGS WILL RULE THINGS WEST OF THE RIVER. THOSE MID AND
EVEN LOWER CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON;
SCT-BKN080-120. LATER INTO MONDAY EVENING WE WILL HAVE HIGH
CEILINGS OF BKN250. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF LOW END GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BE
ON THE LOOK OUT FOR THOSE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH IN ADDITION TO
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD PRODUCE PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL WRAP UP BY LATE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT, MAINLY
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
TO THE GILA REGION AND AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY, BUT ALSO LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS.
ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY, A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET BACK UP ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF
DAILY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 90 61 86 / 0 90 40 10
SIERRA BLANCA 61 87 55 81 / 0 50 70 20
LAS CRUCES 61 84 53 83 / 0 80 40 10
ALAMOGORDO 64 87 55 80 / 0 80 60 40
CLOUDCROFT 47 66 41 58 / 0 80 80 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 81 56 81 / 0 70 60 30
SILVER CITY 57 77 50 77 / 0 80 20 10
DEMING 61 88 54 88 / 0 60 20 0
LORDSBURG 61 85 55 84 / 10 60 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 87 61 85 / 0 90 40 10
DELL CITY 59 90 55 81 / 0 60 80 40
FORT HANCOCK 67 94 60 89 / 0 80 70 10
LOMA LINDA 63 83 55 78 / 0 80 60 20
FABENS 66 91 58 88 / 0 80 60 0
SANTA TERESA 63 86 55 84 / 0 80 30 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 86 61 82 / 0 80 50 20
JORNADA RANGE 62 85 53 82 / 0 80 50 20
HATCH 62 86 54 86 / 0 70 50 10
COLUMBUS 67 88 59 88 / 0 50 10 0
OROGRANDE 63 86 55 80 / 0 80 50 30
MAYHILL 52 78 46 68 / 0 70 80 80
MESCALERO 51 76 45 68 / 0 80 80 60
TIMBERON 49 74 43 66 / 0 70 70 60
WINSTON 51 73 44 73 / 0 80 60 50
HILLSBORO 62 80 53 80 / 0 70 40 30
SPACEPORT 59 82 51 81 / 0 80 60 20
LAKE ROBERTS 52 77 45 77 / 0 90 20 10
HURLEY 57 80 49 80 / 0 70 20 10
CLIFF 57 83 51 84 / 10 80 20 0
MULE CREEK 54 79 49 80 / 30 70 10 0
FAYWOOD 59 79 50 79 / 0 70 20 10
ANIMAS 60 86 54 85 / 20 40 0 0
HACHITA 61 86 54 85 / 10 50 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 87 55 85 / 10 20 0 0
CLOVERDALE 58 81 53 79 / 20 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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