606
FXUS64 KEPZ 081402
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
702 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 701 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
- TEMPERATURES RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
THE ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BLANKETED THE AREA WITH
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND EVEN INSTANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY S/SE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PROGRESSING
MORE SOUTH, DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL
OFFER QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE AND OPENS
UP OVER WESTERN MX DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, IT WILL
BEGIN MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY
OFFERING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WEST
TX (TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING). THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER ON WEDNESDAY, BECOMING SW FLOW ON
THURSDAY. FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. TEMPERATURES
EACH AFTERNOON (WED/THUR) WILL WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS, BECOMING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE TODAY, BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND ELP LATER
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS DAWN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 701 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLING SOME RAIN INTO
FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF FAR WEST TEXAS. BUT PRECIP
IS MOST LIKELY TO AVOID THE GILA AND LINCOLN NATIONAL FORESTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD,
WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOWLAND RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS, VENT
RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE THIS WEEK THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 73 51 71 / 0 10 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA 44 69 48 66 / 0 10 30 50
LAS CRUCES 38 69 44 69 / 0 10 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 38 70 42 70 / 0 10 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 31 51 36 50 / 0 10 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 38 71 43 70 / 0 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 38 65 41 65 / 0 10 10 20
DEMING 38 72 43 72 / 0 10 20 20
LORDSBURG 37 70 41 70 / 0 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 72 51 70 / 0 10 20 30
DELL CITY 40 71 45 70 / 0 0 10 30
FORT HANCOCK 45 76 49 74 / 0 10 30 40
LOMA LINDA 44 67 48 63 / 0 10 20 30
FABENS 43 74 49 72 / 0 10 30 30
SANTA TERESA 41 71 47 70 / 0 10 20 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 71 48 69 / 0 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 34 71 40 70 / 0 10 10 20
HATCH 35 73 41 74 / 0 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 41 72 46 72 / 0 10 20 20
OROGRANDE 38 69 44 68 / 0 10 10 30
MAYHILL 34 65 40 63 / 0 10 10 30
MESCALERO 33 62 37 62 / 0 10 10 30
TIMBERON 37 59 40 58 / 0 10 10 30
WINSTON 30 65 31 65 / 0 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 40 70 43 70 / 0 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 33 71 38 71 / 0 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 33 66 36 64 / 0 10 10 20
HURLEY 36 67 39 67 / 0 10 10 20
CLIFF 34 72 37 71 / 0 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 35 69 36 68 / 0 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 40 67 44 67 / 0 10 10 20
ANIMAS 38 72 43 71 / 0 10 20 20
HACHITA 37 70 42 71 / 0 10 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 71 44 71 / 0 10 20 20
CLOVERDALE 44 67 46 64 / 0 20 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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