129
FXUS64 KEPZ 151808
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1208 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
- SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO SEEP INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL HIGH (250MB) SITTING OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG ITS WESTERN MARGIN CONTINUES TO PUSH
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE UP OVER OUR AREA. AT MID LEVELS A SHORT-WAVE
LIES ACROSS THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH.
OVERALL DEPTH AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE HAS DECREASED FROM SUNDAY;
PWS HAVE DROPPED ABOUT ONE-QUARTER INCH TO .80 INCHES WEST TO
AROUND 1.0 INCHES EAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED FROM 50S-60 SUNDAY
TO 40S-50 BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF MOUNTAIN
STORMS FORMING AROUND NOON-1PM. HRRR WAS LOOKING SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH RESPECT TO MOVING CONVECTION OFF THE GILA DOWN TOWARD EL PASO
BY EARLY THIS EVENING, PROBABLY DUE TO THE SHORT-WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD. SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WORKING AGAINST A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY ARE CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUD LEFTOVER AND LARGE AREAS OF
WET, STABLE GROUND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. HENCE THE LATEST
HRRR DOES BREAK UP THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT REACHES THE EL PASO
AREA. AREAS SUCH AS THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY SAW
VERY LITTLE RAIN SUNDAY AND ARE GETTING FULL SUN THIS MORNING, SO
THESE TWO AREAS NEED TO BE WATCHED.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA, THOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIN PLUME OF MOISTURE
SNEAKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. THUS THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE A STRAY STORM ANY OF THESE DAYS, THOUGH
THE GRIDS LIMIT IT TO THE GILA FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS HEATING BACK
UP, AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WED/THU.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-TROPICA HIGH RECEDES SOME EASTWARD AS
A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES OVER SOCAL AND ARIZONA. THIS WILL CREATE A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. GFS
DID HAVE SATURDAY WET ALSO, BUT 12Z NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE 00Z ECMWF
RUN, WITH WESTERLIES FLUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT FOR SAT/SUN.
HOPEFULLY THE MODELS CAN SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT NEXT COUPLE OF
RUNS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
SCT100 SCT-BKN250. DEVELOPING NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED BKN-OVC070CB 4-6SM -TSRA. STORMS WILL THEN
SPREAD TO THE LOWLANDS AFTER 21Z, AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
BY AROUND 07Z. SURFACE WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS BECOMING
VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z. GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS OF 30-45
KNOTS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FIRE CONCERNS MOST AREAS AS MOST OF THE ZONES
HAVE RECEIVED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE
ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF ZONE 110, WHICH
HAS NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN THE PAST 48 HOURS AND LOOKS TO HAVE
SOME GUSTY WINDS (20-30) MPH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS
FIRE CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL IN THE AREA AROUND THE
BEAR FIRE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TONIGHT ACROSS ALL THE
ZONES. STORMS LIMITED MOSTLY TO ZONE 110 TUE/WED. TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN RHS DROP BACK TO NEAR CRITICAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAYBE SATURDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 20-35% TODAY DECREASING TO 10-15% TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN BACK TO 15-25% FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 25-40% TODAY,
DECREASING TO 10-20% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BACK TO 20-35%
FRIDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD TODAY AND FRIDAY; VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 100 78 104 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 95 66 100 / 20 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 98 69 102 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 98 70 103 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 75 54 79 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 99 71 102 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 93 64 92 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 63 100 71 103 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 66 100 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 99 76 102 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 64 97 66 103 / 20 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 69 101 72 105 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 64 92 68 96 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 68 101 73 104 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 66 98 72 101 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 99 76 103 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 64 98 65 102 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 63 99 66 105 / 10 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 69 101 76 102 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 64 97 65 102 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 87 59 91 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 53 86 57 90 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 50 82 54 87 / 10 10 0 0
WINSTON 55 90 61 92 / 10 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 63 95 68 98 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 61 98 62 101 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 54 94 56 93 / 10 0 0 10
HURLEY 60 96 66 95 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 59 100 61 99 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 56 95 56 93 / 0 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 61 94 67 95 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 66 99 66 98 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 65 100 67 98 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 98 67 97 / 10 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 62 91 62 90 / 10 10 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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