946
FXUS64 KEPZ 252346
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
446 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 442 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
- TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES WILL LIKELY SET A COUPLE NEW
DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
- WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG ALTHOUGH SOME BREEZINESS IS
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
TURNS MORE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE DURING MOST OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES VERY WARM WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS LIKELY.
NBM TEMPS DIDN'T LOOK TOO FAR OFF, BUT DID RAISE A DEGREE OR TWO
TO ACCOUNT FOR BEING RECORDS. THE DAILY RECORDS FOR ELP THE NEXT
4 DAYS ARE 83, 85, 83, 81. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WHICH WILL
BE CLOSE, THE OTHER ONES ALL LOOK ALMOST CERTAIN TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN. GENERALLY EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S AT ELP THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOWER TO MID 80S MOST OF THE NM LOWLANDS. A FEW AREAS IN THE
LOWER RGV COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 90S. EVEN WINDS AFTER TODAY DO NOT
LOOK VERY IMPACTFUL WITH GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH AREAS FURTHER
WEST WITH SOME 10-20G30MPH DAYS. NOT LIKELY ANY KIND OF WIND
HIGHLIGHTS, BUT SOME PATCHY DUST AND INCREASING FIRE THREATS.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE AN
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION TUE INTO WED. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT
TRENDS IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS IS FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW WHICH THEN PUTS DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WHICH IS THE
TYPICAL RESULT IN MARCH. IF SOME MOISTURE DOES STAY IN THE EASTERN
AREAS, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE
GOOD SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY. SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE WILL
LIKELY GET SOME INCREASED WINDS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES WHICH COULD
BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER FEATURE OF THE COMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BREEZY
AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING TODAY WILL DROP OFF IN
THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO LOW END GUSTY WINDS AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. WE CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250, BUT THOSE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE OFF
AND ON HIGH CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER RH'S EXPECTED OVER THE
COMING DAYS WHICH WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT THE SMALLER FUELS. ERC
PERCENTILES WILL BE GOING UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY, ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING SOME ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS BUT LIKELY NOT
RESULTING IN ANY HIGHLIGHTS. THERE WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
TO THE NORTH TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING A MORE
IMPACTFUL WIND EVENT AND INCREASED FIRE DANGERS. VENT RATES OVER
THE COMING DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 57 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 83 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 79 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 44 84 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 76 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 51 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 82 38 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 46 73 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 72 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 42 74 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 79 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 44 82 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 33 74 32 76 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 44 77 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 37 79 35 82 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 36 77 34 79 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 47 78 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 48 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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