444
FXUS64 KEPZ 051123
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
423 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 403 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
- FRIDAY, COLD MORNING AND COOL AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES,
BUT DRY AND SUNNY.
- DRY CONDITIONS, TYPICAL BREEZES, AND A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST THU DEC 4 2025
OUR LATEST STORM SYSTEM PULLED AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, LEAVING BEHIND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE
SACS AND GILA, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY LOWLAND RAIN.
WE ARE NOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT EXITING WAVE OF ENERGY AND
MOISTURE, BUT STILL UNDER A VERY BROAD AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS ALMOST COAST TO COAST, ACROSS THE U.S. OVER THE WEST
COAST THERE IS RIDGING, AND THE FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL OVER THE EAST
COAST. ALSO THERE IS A PENDANT TROUGH OVER THE BAJA, SOMEWHAT
DISCONNECTED FROM THE FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. IN THE PARENT TROUGH. FOR
US THAT MEANS THE STORM TRACK IS BACK TO OUR NORTH, WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO OUR NORTH. THE DISCONNECTED TROUGH
OVER THE BAJA HAS A CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, AND IS
STEERING IT NE ACROSS N MEXICO INTO TX, BUT MOSTLY TO OUR S AND E,
AS INCREASING NW FLOW INTO OUR REGION, PUSHES THAT MOISTURE PLUME
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THUS WE WILL TREND SHARPLY DRIER UNDER THIS
PERSISTENT NW FLOW PATTERN.
LOOKING AHEAD THE NEXT WEEK, WE SEE A STATIC PATTERN ENTRENCHED OVER
OUR REGION, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SCAL COAST, KEEPING A RIDGE
OVER THE SW U.S., WITH A BROAD STANDING TROUGH SPILLING OUT OF THE
PACNM, ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER
THE SE U.S. THAT KEEPS US IN A DRY NW FLOW REGIME FOR THE DURATION
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS WILL MANIFEST IN TEMPERATURE WARMING
TO SEASONAL FOR THE WEEKEND, AND ABOVE NORMAL (5-7 DEGREES) FOR MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A MILDLY BREEZY AFTERNOON FRIDAY, WINDS LOOK TO
BE GENERALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A FEW PERIODS OF
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, WE EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD. AND FROM A PROBABILITY PERSPECTIVE, OUR RAIN/SNOW/PRECIP
CHANCES ARE AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS THEY CAN GET THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
BOTTOM LINE, FRIDAY, THE WEEKEND, AND ALL OF NEXT WEEK, LOOK TO HAVE
FAIR WEATHER, WITH DRY CONDITIONS, SEASONAL AND ABOVE TEMPERATURES,
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCT040-060/250 BCMG SKC-
FEW250 BY 18Z. WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BY 20Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS. DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST (270-320).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE DEW POINTS DECREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON MIN RH
VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FOR
TODAY AND SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. VENTING WILL
RANGE FAIR TO GOOD EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 36 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 31 60 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 28 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 27 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 40 25 43 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 62 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 27 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 28 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 27 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 63 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 24 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 33 68 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 32 55 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 31 65 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 31 62 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 24 61 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 25 66 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 33 66 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 26 59 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 27 55 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 24 51 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 24 49 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 23 60 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 30 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 22 60 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 24 56 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 25 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 22 61 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 23 57 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 29 58 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 29 63 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 62 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 30 64 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 33 56 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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