843
FXUS64 KEPZ 150442
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
942 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 940 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
- WARMING AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME BREEZINESS.
- A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WORK WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON WILL OFFER
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY FOCUS
OVER THE GILA ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE UL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US SOME SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW WELL EAST OF US TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT,
LEADING TO RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEGINNING MONDAY, WE START TO TRANSITION FROM RIDGING ALOFT TO
TROUGHING, AS A PROMINENT UL LOW WILL CARVE OUT A LONG-WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FURTHER FOR
MONDAY ON DEEP SW FLOW WHILE WINDS INCREASE SOME. TUESDAY WILL
BRING AN EVEN SHARPER INCREASE IN WINDS AS A ~90 KNOT H500 TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE DESERT SW, INTENSIFYING AS IT DOES SO.
MEANWHILE, A 985 MB LOW WILL FORM OVER NE WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS
TRAILING TOWARD NM ALONG WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS. FREQUENT
READERS OF THESE DISCUSSIONS KNOW THAT MEANS WIND FOR THE
BORDERLAND. MUCH OF THE CWA LOOKS TO BE FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH H850 FLOW AROUND 40 KNOTS. NBM 75TH PERCENTILE TOP
GUST SHOWS 45-55 MPH PRETTY COMMON. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO
OCCUR OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. NBM 25TH PERCENTILE TOP GUST
HAS PORTIONS OF THE SACS OVER 70 MPH WITH 75TH PERCENTILE OVER 80
MPH. GFS SHOWS H500 WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 100 KNOTS WITH H700
OVER 70 KNOTS, INDICATING A HYDRAULIC JUMP AND THEREFORE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR
PRECIP. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE GILA WHERE THE NBM SHOWS POPS
AROUND 80% TOWARD THE AZ BORDER RAPIDLY DECREASING TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND EAST.
WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN KEEPING THE TROUGH OVER US, THE H500
JET WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE SOUTHERN US MEANING WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY. H500 FLOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH A WEAKER
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN CO. THUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT LESS
WINDY THAN TUESDAY, BUT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH A 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD OF 55 TO
75 MPH. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOWS TOP GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH AT
THE 75TH PERCENTILE. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE GILA.
WE DO THE SAME THING FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER JET MAX PASSES ACROSS
NM WITH SIMILAR STRENGTH AND TIMING TO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE HERE IS A ~1000 MB SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. FINALLY
BY FRIDAY DOES THE H500 JET BEGINS TO DEPART LEADING TO
DECREASING WINDS AS WELL AS DECREASING TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AIR
ARRIVES IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC-FEW250 ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 904 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK. TODAY WILL SEE
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND YESTERDAY'S STORM SYSTEM AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. 20-FT WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AREAS, LIGHTER TO THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT S-SE FOR SUN,
BECOMING LIGHTER UNDERNEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. BREEZIER WINDS FOR
MON AS DEEPER SW FLOW SHIFTS OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN MIN RHS
NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. STRONGER
WINDS ARRIVE FOR TUE AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED, ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS WILL HELP LOWER
MIN RHS ON TUE. EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE VERY MOIST FOR MID-FEBRUARY,
THIS PATTERN WILL START A DRYING TREND AND RAISE ERCS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. TEMPS RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON, COOLING TO NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-45% TODAY, FALLING TO 10-25% FOR MON.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, POOR
TO GOOD SUN, IMPROVING TO MOSTLY EXCELLENT TUE-THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 71 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 37 67 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 37 67 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 34 68 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 27 50 34 54 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 38 67 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 61 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 37 69 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 66 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 70 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 69 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 39 75 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 39 64 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 39 74 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 38 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 69 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 34 68 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 34 71 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 69 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 36 68 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 30 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 29 61 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 33 56 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 61 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 66 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 32 66 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 34 64 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 32 68 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 32 65 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 37 63 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 35 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 34 67 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 34 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 38 65 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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