193
FXUS64 KEPZ 152333
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
533 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 413 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
- CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- STORM CHANCES LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS
FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER CUT THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALL OF THE WAY UP INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND MOVE INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL FACILITATE ENHANCED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
FOR TODAY, SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
INHIBITING MORE WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY. MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS PART OF A
GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE AREA, CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FUELED BY INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. THIS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER WILL HAVE THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DIMINISH ON MONDAY.
BY MONDAY, THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT
WEST OVER ARIZONA, ALLOWING THE LOCAL AREA TO DRY OUT. THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY KEEPING THE AREA IN AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL BE
MOSTLY TRANSPORTING DRIER STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH CHANCES FOR ISOLATED MOSTLY MOUNTAIN BASED STORMS NEXT WEEK.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR OR A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT090 SCT-BKN250. ISOLATED BKN070CB
5SM -TSRA, MOSTLY WEST OF THE RG VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
DISSIPATED BY 05-07Z. GUST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS NEAR STORMS,
OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS EAST/SOUTHEAST 10-13G20 KNOTS UNTIL 06Z
THEN VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER FWZ110 WITH
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH FROM THE EAST- SOUTHEAST TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY WITH GOOD TO
VERY GOOD VENTILATION. THE DRIER AIR ERODES THU/FRI AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. STORM COVERAGE INCREASES
LATER THIS WEEK WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AREA-WIDE,
ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND OUT WEST. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STAY
BELOW NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-40% TODAY, RISING TO 25-50% BY FRI. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD TODAY, THEN POOR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 93 72 93 / 20 20 20 40
SIERRA BLANCA 60 86 62 86 / 10 30 20 50
LAS CRUCES 66 89 66 90 / 20 20 20 40
ALAMOGORDO 64 88 65 89 / 20 20 20 60
CLOUDCROFT 47 67 48 67 / 10 30 40 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 89 68 90 / 40 20 20 40
SILVER CITY 62 81 60 82 / 30 60 30 70
DEMING 66 92 64 93 / 20 30 30 40
LORDSBURG 68 88 65 88 / 20 40 40 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 91 73 92 / 20 20 20 40
DELL CITY 64 89 65 90 / 10 20 10 40
FORT HANCOCK 68 93 69 93 / 10 20 20 40
LOMA LINDA 63 85 64 85 / 20 30 20 60
FABENS 69 94 70 94 / 20 20 20 40
SANTA TERESA 69 90 69 90 / 20 20 20 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 91 72 91 / 20 20 20 50
JORNADA RANGE 67 90 67 90 / 20 20 20 50
HATCH 68 92 67 93 / 20 20 20 40
COLUMBUS 71 92 70 93 / 20 30 30 40
OROGRANDE 65 89 66 89 / 20 20 20 50
MAYHILL 51 78 52 78 / 10 30 30 90
MESCALERO 51 79 52 78 / 10 40 30 80
TIMBERON 49 75 50 75 / 10 30 30 80
WINSTON 58 80 56 82 / 40 50 30 70
HILLSBORO 65 86 64 88 / 40 40 20 60
SPACEPORT 64 89 64 90 / 20 20 20 50
LAKE ROBERTS 56 82 55 83 / 50 70 30 80
HURLEY 62 84 60 85 / 20 50 30 60
CLIFF 64 87 62 88 / 30 50 30 70
MULE CREEK 62 83 60 84 / 30 50 40 70
FAYWOOD 64 84 62 85 / 20 40 30 50
ANIMAS 69 89 65 87 / 10 60 30 70
HACHITA 66 89 64 88 / 20 40 30 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 89 65 87 / 20 50 30 70
CLOVERDALE 64 82 62 80 / 10 60 50 80
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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