352
FXUS64 KEPZ 011200
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
600 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
NEAR-TERM POP GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS WITH SHOWERS ONGOING AROUND DEMING.
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
EAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
- BREEZY WEST FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
A CUTOFF LOW IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TO EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE INT'L
BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SPANNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE BULK
OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
GILA REGION AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
A SECONDARY RESURGENCE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH SOME BREEZY
EAST WINDS.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AREA, WHICH IS
WHAT WILL GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO SEE RAIN. RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN ON SUNDAY, BUT EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL STILL HAVE
SOME SURFACE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN
THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO ALLOW FOR SOME LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS ACTIVE AGAIN. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO BRING US
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, PROGRESSING
EASTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW THIS MORNING. WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS
LINGER ALONG AND E OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL ABOUT 18Z BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WEST OF KTCS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION IS MODELED TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS, MOST LIKELY IMPACTING KTCS DIRECTLY. MVFR THRESHOLDS
MAY BE MET DUE TO THE TSRA. GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 25KTS CAN BE SEEN
ALSO FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING WITH LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. KELP SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 21Z. WINDS SHIFT NE DURING
THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS FOR MOST TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. GILA NAT'L FOREST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW STORM CHANCES
LINGER FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO A SECOND UPPER
DISTURBANCE. WETTING RAINS WILL ALLOW FUELS TO IMPROVE INTO NEXT
WEEK, FALLING PRECIPITOUSLY FROM WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER THIS WEEK.
DRIER AND BREEZY STARTING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MOIST FUELS MAY
PRECLUDE FIRE PRODUCTS FROM BEING ISSUED. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 15-40% W OF THE RGV TODAY, 40-80% E OF THE RGV;
FALLING TO 15-35% AREA-WIDE ON MON. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO
GOOD THROUGH SAT, IMPROVING TO VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ON MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 71 53 79 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 43 66 47 74 / 20 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 69 47 75 / 40 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 43 67 46 74 / 30 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 29 46 32 54 / 40 30 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 67 49 75 / 40 30 10 10
SILVER CITY 42 66 46 70 / 40 20 0 10
DEMING 47 72 49 78 / 40 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 72 52 77 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 70 55 77 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 44 67 43 76 / 30 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 48 74 53 83 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 42 63 47 71 / 20 10 0 0
FABENS 48 73 52 81 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 69 50 77 / 30 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 69 52 76 / 40 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 69 44 75 / 50 20 0 0
HATCH 47 71 47 78 / 50 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 49 73 53 79 / 30 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 45 66 46 74 / 30 10 0 0
MAYHILL 32 57 35 66 / 50 20 0 0
MESCALERO 32 58 35 64 / 40 30 10 10
TIMBERON 32 54 36 61 / 40 20 0 0
WINSTON 37 60 37 67 / 50 40 10 10
HILLSBORO 45 66 47 73 / 50 30 10 10
SPACEPORT 44 67 43 74 / 40 20 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 38 66 42 72 / 50 30 10 10
HURLEY 41 68 44 73 / 30 20 0 10
CLIFF 46 74 47 78 / 20 20 0 10
MULE CREEK 43 71 46 75 / 20 20 0 10
FAYWOOD 42 66 46 72 / 40 20 0 10
ANIMAS 48 74 51 79 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 71 49 77 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 73 50 79 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 70 52 74 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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