883
FXUS64 KEPZ 151832 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1132 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIXED
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. MINIMAL WEATHER HAZARDS.
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY,
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER SIXTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
STUBBORN BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE LOITERING IN THE PACIFIC
DURING THE SHORT TERM. MODERATED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE REX
BLOCK LINGERS, A TROUGH WILL SWEEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES, KICKING
OFF A BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS FROPA WILL
INITIATE A GENTLE SHIFT FOR WINDS OUT OF THE EAST BUT OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
OUT EAST WILL COOL A COUPLE DEGREES, WITH THE MOST DRAMATIC DROPS
FAVORING FAR NORTHEASTERN OTERO CO.
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA FOLLOWS QUICK ON ITS HEELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
DELIVERING ANOTHER MINOR SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT BRINGS
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE TO A FEW DEGREES. EVEN WITH THAT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR A BULK OF THE CWA.
THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, CREATING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED SINUSOIDAL PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER MX,
ALLOWING FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST. A LOW
SNAKING UP THE BAJA WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH EAST ACROSS MX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
BORDERLAND BY TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHETHER THE LOW WILL
TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO CREATE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONGSIDE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
A BLOCKING PATTERN TO OUR WEST WILL GENERATE MODERATED CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW DRYING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL MINRH FAVORING THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY AND
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, TEMPERING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CRITICAL MINRH WILL PERSIST TO A LESSER EXTENT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING EAST ACROSS
MEXICO WILL INJECT MOISTURE INTO THE BORDERLAND BY WEDNESDAY,
FORCING HUMIDITY WELL INTO THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT RANGE.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON IF THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL FAR ENOUGH NORTH
TO OFFER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SCOUR
OUT PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE EJECTION OF THE SYSTEM,
BRINGING LOCALIZED CRITICAL VALUES BACK TO THE SACRAMENTO
HIGHLANDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 36 64 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 59 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 32 62 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 32 62 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 44 24 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 62 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 32 61 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 31 65 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 64 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 37 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 61 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 32 65 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 58 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 32 64 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 62 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 38 63 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 27 63 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 66 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 34 64 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 61 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 31 53 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 56 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 28 51 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 59 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 34 63 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 28 62 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 61 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 63 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 66 22 65 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 64 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 61 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 32 64 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 30 64 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 32 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 39 62 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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