903
FXUS64 KEPZ 161059
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
459 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 436 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
- BREEZY AGAIN TODAY AND WINDY FRIDAY, AND WITH VERY DRY AIR
WILL BRING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A COOL FRONT, WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS
MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR A COOLER
WEEKEND.
- FOR SUNDAY, GUSTY EAST WINDS BRING IN GULF MOISTURE FROM TEXAS.
THIS GIVE THE AREAS ALONG, AND EST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
- MONDAY, AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WE SEE DRY WESTERLY FLOW MOVE
BACK IN. NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR, WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN ON
THU, RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. LEE SFC TROUGHING IS
GENERATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 15-25KTS ARE
MODELED FOR THU WITH A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW IS NUDGED SE ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING DOWN
THE PLAINS, GIVING US A MORE STOUT GRADIENT. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE
WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SACS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR EARLY FRI AS 700MB WINDS REACH 40-50KTS WITH SOME MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG EAST SLOPES. SINCE WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A
BIT FOR THU, BLOWING DUST IS LESS OF A CONCERN, BUT FRI COULD
STILL BE DUSTY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET.
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE A SIDEDOOR FRONT THAT ARRIVES EARLY
SAT, BRINGING SOME COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY N-NE WINDS INITIALLY. THE
SFC HIGH SETTLES TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, GIVING US MOIST,
BREEZY SE FLOW OFF THE GULF FOR A SHORT TIME. EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS
VERY BREEZY DUE TO TIGHT ISOBAR PACKING, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST SLOPES
WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE SEEN, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED A COUPLE
WEEKS AGO. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS A RESULT OF THE SE FLOW SUN,
MAINLY E OF THE RGV. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT IN MOISTURE CONTENT
BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE GEFS MORE BULLISH ON
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS FLUSHED OUT ON
MON AS WEAK RIDGING TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK, RETURNING US TO DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH FRI, THEN FALLING TO
BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE'LL BECOME MILD AGAIN
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE AM FROM W-NW, BECOMING BREEZY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO 20-25KTS FROM S-SW. NO BLDU IS EXPECTED.
SKIES START MOSTLY SKC, WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING SCT-BKN250 DURING THE DAY, THEN BACK
TO SKC-FEW250 THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION ON DEEP SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERLY FLOW, AND THIS CRITICALLY DRY AIR WILL SIT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY, AND SLOWLY PASS TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW,
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE RAMPING UP INTO ELEVATED, NEAR
CRITICAL, AND EVEN CRITICAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE, WITH THE ADDITION OF BREEZY WINDS TODAY, AND WINDY AND
GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. FOR TODAY, OUR WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THAN OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. TOMORROW, IT WILL BE THE EASTERN AREAS,
AND IN PARTICULAR THE SACS, THAT SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY AREA EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY'S WINDS, AND THUS,
EVEN WITH SLIGHT RH GAINS, THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MEET RFW
CRITERIA FOR ALL, OR MOST, OF OUR S CENTRAL AND SW NM FIRE ZONES.
THUS WE HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE, WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. FRIDAY'S WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30+ MPH. THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MUCH STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND PEAKING FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35
MPH AND GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH. TODAY'S MINRH WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE-DIGITS MOST AREAS, WITH LOWER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY THE MINRH WILL BE IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH IN IN FROM THE NORTH, SHIFTING WINDS FROM W TO N, AND
KEEPING THEM AT LEAST BREEZY AND GUSTY. THE FRONT WILL BE DRY.
SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER
INCREASE, WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN SOME GULF
MOISTURE, AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
MONDAY, WE REVERT BACK TO A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN, WHICH WILL
PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST, AND DRAW IN DRY AIR ONCE
AGAIN. MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIR AND MILD, WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES, DRY WEATHER, AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY
AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 83 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 80 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 79 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 80 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 57 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 79 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 70 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 47 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 77 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 81 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 82 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 87 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 75 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 85 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 80 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 79 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 82 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 82 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 79 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 69 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 68 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 66 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 70 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 76 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 79 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 70 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 73 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 40 76 38 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 72 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 72 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 45 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 79 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 73 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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