017
FXUS64 KEPZ 021759
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1159 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 933 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
- SPOTTY, LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MOST OF
REGION DRY TODAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A
RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER, WITH LOWLANDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE ELONGATED UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE OVER TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY AND MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HINDER CONVECTION, AND KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL, HUDSPETH
COUNTY, AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS TO FORM OVER MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS, BUT MOST OF THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE LARGE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AND ONLY PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE SKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S.
FOR THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND WITH
IT A BETTER CHANCE OF STORM COVERAGE. THE MOISTURE PLUME COMING
FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE MOST PROMINENT OUT WEST IN
THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, GIVING THOSE REGIONS THE BEST CHANCE (30-50%)
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, WITH THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS COMING IN SECOND (25-45% CHANCE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOWLANDS COULD SEE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%) IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PWAT VALUES WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY, RANGING FROM 1.35 TO 1.45" FOR
THE LOWLANDS, AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FLOOD- PRONE AREAS.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
SATURDAY, THE UPPER- LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO REFORM ITSELF OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL
REDUCE INSTABILITY AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH PWAT
VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.3" ON SATURDAY, THE MOUNTAINS COULD
STILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LOWLANDS ISOLATED. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER
US. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO ABOUT 1.2-1.25"
THANKS TO DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. GREATER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FAVORED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, AND STORMS ARE FORECAST BE HIT-OR-MISS FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION, MORE SO MISS THAN HIT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OBSERVATION PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST (220-270) WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 10 KT.
NO TS ARE EXPECTED FOR ANY OF THE FOUR TAF SITES, BUT KDMN COULD
SEE AN OUTFLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT THAT STIRS UP BLOWING DUST
FROM 03Z-05Z. SKIES SCT-BKN100 WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z, AND ISOLATED SHRA IN THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL, SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, AND PARTS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
BEGINNING TODAY AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, WILL BE IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 20S AND LOW-TO-MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO MOISTURE IN
THE REGION. RECOVERY RHS WILL BE EXCELLENT FOR THE REGION, WITH
MAX RHS INCREASING FROM THE UPPER 40S TODAY TO THE 60S AND 70S BY
THE WEEKEND BEFORE FALLING TO THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY, WITH THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, PARTS
OF HUDSPETH COUNTY, AND THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL HAVING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEE A
SPOTTY SHOWER OR TOO, BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT, THERE WILL JUST BE
CLOUDS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO STARTING TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS (30-50% CHANCE), BUT THE
LOWLANDS WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THESE
STORMS, BUT THANKS TO THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE, NEW LIGHTNING
STARTS WILL REMAIN A LOW RISK. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH
WILL LEAD TO VENTILATION RATES RANGING FROM GOOD TO VERY GOOD
TODAY. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE VENTILATION RATES FALL TO FAIR
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND POOR ON SATURDAY. VENTILATION RATES
WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL RUN ABOUT 5
DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 98 73 96 / 10 10 40 20
SIERRA BLANCA 67 95 66 93 / 10 10 30 20
LAS CRUCES 68 96 68 94 / 10 10 40 20
ALAMOGORDO 69 96 69 94 / 0 10 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 52 73 52 71 / 0 30 30 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 94 69 92 / 0 10 40 30
SILVER CITY 62 87 61 85 / 0 20 30 50
DEMING 68 96 67 94 / 10 10 30 20
LORDSBURG 67 91 66 89 / 10 20 40 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 97 75 95 / 10 10 40 20
DELL CITY 71 99 70 97 / 0 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 74 101 73 99 / 10 10 40 20
LOMA LINDA 68 90 67 88 / 10 10 50 20
FABENS 73 98 72 96 / 10 10 50 20
SANTA TERESA 72 95 71 93 / 10 10 40 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 97 72 95 / 10 10 40 20
JORNADA RANGE 68 95 68 94 / 0 10 40 20
HATCH 69 99 69 97 / 0 10 40 30
COLUMBUS 73 96 72 94 / 10 10 50 20
OROGRANDE 68 95 68 93 / 0 10 30 20
MAYHILL 57 86 58 85 / 0 40 10 80
MESCALERO 56 84 56 83 / 0 30 20 70
TIMBERON 55 83 55 81 / 0 10 20 40
WINSTON 58 85 56 84 / 0 30 40 70
HILLSBORO 67 93 66 91 / 0 20 40 40
SPACEPORT 67 95 66 93 / 0 10 50 30
LAKE ROBERTS 56 86 56 84 / 0 30 30 60
HURLEY 63 90 61 88 / 0 20 30 40
CLIFF 65 93 65 92 / 0 20 30 40
MULE CREEK 62 89 61 87 / 0 20 30 40
FAYWOOD 65 89 64 88 / 0 20 30 40
ANIMAS 67 90 66 89 / 20 40 30 50
HACHITA 67 91 65 89 / 20 30 30 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 89 64 88 / 40 40 40 50
CLOVERDALE 63 83 62 82 / 50 50 50 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
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