009
FXUS64 KEPZ 060446
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1046 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY, BUT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. WE WILL HAVE A DRYING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES COMMON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT THERE IS HOPE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
CONTROLLED OUR WEATHER IS CENTERED OVER THE NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
BORDER. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DRIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THAT WILL ALLOW
OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PW'S) TO CLIMB A BIT AS MOISTURE IS
ABLE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO
MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY,
BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AND WE WILL SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GILA WILDERNESS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN, BUT THE REST OF WILL LIKELY STAY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RUN 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
FOR MONDAY INTO THE TUESDAY, THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN, WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS, BUT BY WEDNESDAY, WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNS OF A TRUE MONSOON
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE WHAT
LATER RUNS OF THE MODELS BRING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THOSE SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTFUL. BY
MORNING WE WILL HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS, BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON
CLOUDS WILL BUILD AND WE WILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH AND MID CEILINGS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF LAS CRUCES. I WENT AHEAD AND
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KDMN,
BUT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES I DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS. WE
WILL UPDATE THE TAF'S FOR THOSE SITES AS NEEDED. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THEN WE WILL SEE SOME LOW END GUSTY WINDS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AND AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP OVER AREA MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY TO STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. BETTER STORM COVERAGE OVER GILA TODAY COMPARED TO
LINCOLN. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OUT WEST. LIGHT SE
FLOW OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS TODAY. STORM COVERAGE INCREASES A BIT FOR
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE S NM LOWLANDS INTO THE
EVENING. THE MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS OUT WEST FOR
TOMORROW. WINDS STAY LIGHT FROM THE SE FOR THU. STORM CHANCES
DWINDLE INTO THE WEEKEND, FAVORING WESTERN AREAS WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
MIN RHS DROP TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL. TEMPS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 15-40% INTO THE WEEKEND. VENT RATES WILL BE
FAIR TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 102 75 101 / 10 10 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 98 68 97 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 71 100 69 98 / 20 10 40 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 99 69 98 / 10 30 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 53 75 / 10 50 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 100 71 99 / 20 30 20 10
SILVER CITY 64 93 64 93 / 20 50 20 50
DEMING 70 101 69 99 / 10 10 40 0
LORDSBURG 69 99 70 98 / 20 10 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 102 75 100 / 10 10 30 10
DELL CITY 72 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 76 105 76 104 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 70 95 69 94 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 75 103 74 101 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 74 100 72 98 / 10 0 40 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 101 73 99 / 10 20 40 0
JORNADA RANGE 72 100 70 99 / 20 20 40 10
HATCH 72 104 70 102 / 20 30 40 0
COLUMBUS 74 102 73 99 / 10 10 40 0
OROGRANDE 71 99 69 97 / 10 20 30 10
MAYHILL 59 87 58 87 / 10 30 10 30
MESCALERO 59 88 57 88 / 20 50 20 50
TIMBERON 57 85 56 85 / 10 40 20 30
WINSTON 63 91 61 91 / 10 40 20 30
HILLSBORO 69 98 67 98 / 20 40 40 20
SPACEPORT 70 100 68 99 / 30 30 30 10
LAKE ROBERTS 59 93 59 93 / 20 70 20 60
HURLEY 65 96 65 95 / 20 40 20 30
CLIFF 66 99 67 99 / 20 40 20 60
MULE CREEK 64 95 65 95 / 20 40 20 60
FAYWOOD 68 96 67 95 / 10 40 30 20
ANIMAS 69 99 70 98 / 40 10 40 0
HACHITA 68 98 68 97 / 10 10 50 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 98 69 96 / 30 20 50 0
CLOVERDALE 64 92 65 92 / 50 20 60 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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