801
FXUS64 KEPZ 201128
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
528 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
- DRY, SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID MAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CAN BE SEEN VIA MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST, VERY
LITTLE IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE FELT LOCALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY THING WORTH MENTIONING IS THAT WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW-END BREEZY CATEGORY WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES,
THE WEAK MOISTURE BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL EBB AND FLOW OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY EAST
OF THE HWY54 CORRIDOR. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS DP TEMPS IN THE 40-50
DEGREES RANGE ACROSS FAR EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY, HUDSPETH COUNTY,
AND SACRAMENTO MTN EAST SLOPES. BUT BY THE AFTERNOON, THE DRY
WESTERLIES WILL KICK INTO GEAR AND PUSH SAID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE EAST. THERE ARE MENTIONABLE POPS (15%) IN THE GRIDS ACROSS
FAR EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WHERE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
ON THURSDAY, THE DRY WESTERLIES WIN OUT AGAIN AS THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MAKE ANOTHER WESTWARD PUSH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECTED LOW-END BREEZY WINDS AND NEAR SEASONAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY, AN EXTENSION, OR WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND NORTHERN
SONORA. AS IT DOES SO, SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN, EXPECTED FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL FOR THE LATER
PART OF MAY.
..MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME WEAK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN IT'S WAKE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. FOR MONDAY, MEMORIAL DAY, THE SLIGHTEST BIT
OF MOISTURE WILL WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE AREA WITH MEAGER BUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROFILES. AS OF NOW, NBM GUIDANCE AND IT'S
RESPECTED GLOBAL MODELS PAINT SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEING 5-6 DAYS OUT,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN250. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW'LY (190-230) WITH SPEEDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
DARK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS 20-FOOT
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10%. FAR
EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD HAVE A DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WIND RISK. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY TOWARD THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY AFTERNOONS. VENTING WILL BE EXCELLENT.
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND AND GO INTO NEXT WEEK, INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 83 55 84 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 56 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 64 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 88 55 89 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 91 61 91 / 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 61 89 61 90 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 76 50 77 / 10 10 0 0
MESCALERO 47 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 44 72 44 73 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 46 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 78 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 81 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 54 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 54 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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