857
FXUS64 KEPZ 252326
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
526 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- LOW ELEVATION DESERT TEMPERATURES WILL PERIODICALLY REACH 100
TO 105, POSING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE GILA
WILDERNESS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
BOOT HEEL OF NM. STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN DESERTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION. CURRENTLY, PWATS
REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.3 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND
THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH
WILL KEEP MONSOON MOISTURE FAVORING SONORA INTO SOUTHERN AZ WITH
MODIFIED AND MORE SUBDUED PWATS INTO NM AND FAR WEST TX. SLUGGISH
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE COMMON, INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TODAY'S STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND GILA WILDERNESS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
PROPAGATING INTO NEARBY VALLEYS WITH STORMS STRUGGLING TO
INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE BORDERLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE SACRAMENTO'S WILL END AT 6 PM MDT WHEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL ABATE THERE.
INTO SUNDAY, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE GILA AND
SACRAMENTO'S OBSERVING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AGAIN, WHILE STORMS
ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER THE BOOT HEEL AND ALONG THE
SONORA- CHIHUAHUA BORDER. CONSEQUENTLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF FAR WEST TX
STAYING VOID OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH LOTS OF UPPER 90'S AND LOW 100'S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS.
CHANGES INTO MONDAY ARE SUBTLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE OVER WESTERN AREAS WHERE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OR ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH TUESDAY
ONWARD WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY APPRECIABLE DAY-TO-DAY
CHANGES WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. POPS MIMIC CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE JULY, TYPICALLY THE MOST ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD, WITH
THE GILA, NM BOOT HEEL, AND SACRAMENTO'S STAYING THE FAVORED
AREAS FOR RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES IN THE RIO GRANDE WILL ESCALATE
TO 100 TO 105 IN MANY LOCALES, INCREASING HEAT IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING FEW-SCT090
WITH ISOLATED SHRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD NOT AFFECT LOCAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SKIES SCT-
BKN250 AND SURFACE WINDS 350-040 AOB 5KT. ISOLATED TSRA COVERAGE
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS S NM BETWEEN 21-03Z. NO
MENTION IN TAFS YET DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
NO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE GILA WILDERNESS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE BOOT HEEL OF NM WITH
MORE SPARSE STORM ACTIVITY ONLY OCCASIONALLY MAKING IT INTO LOWER
DESERTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT IN LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS WITH MINIMUM RH OF 15 TO 20% BEING COMMON IN THE
AFTERNOONS. WIND CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TO THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS ON LOCALIZED SCALES FOR BRIEF TIME FRAMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 103 79 104 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 97 71 99 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 73 100 73 101 / 10 10 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 75 99 76 102 / 10 20 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 56 75 56 77 / 20 40 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 75 100 74 101 / 40 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 67 92 66 92 / 30 40 20 40
DEMING 74 102 72 102 / 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 73 99 72 98 / 30 10 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 81 102 80 102 / 0 0 20 0
DELL CITY 74 101 74 103 / 0 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 104 78 105 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 72 95 72 96 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 78 103 78 104 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 77 100 76 101 / 10 0 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 101 80 102 / 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 76 100 76 102 / 10 10 10 0
HATCH 75 103 74 104 / 30 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 78 103 77 102 / 10 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 75 99 74 101 / 10 10 10 0
MAYHILL 61 87 61 89 / 10 30 10 20
MESCALERO 60 87 61 89 / 20 30 10 20
TIMBERON 59 85 59 87 / 10 30 10 20
WINSTON 64 90 63 92 / 40 50 10 30
HILLSBORO 72 97 71 98 / 50 30 10 10
SPACEPORT 73 100 72 101 / 30 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 62 93 61 93 / 40 50 20 60
HURLEY 68 96 67 96 / 30 30 20 30
CLIFF 69 98 68 98 / 40 30 20 30
MULE CREEK 67 94 66 94 / 40 30 20 30
FAYWOOD 70 95 68 95 / 30 30 20 20
ANIMAS 73 99 71 97 / 20 20 30 10
HACHITA 72 99 70 98 / 10 20 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 98 70 96 / 10 20 30 20
CLOVERDALE 67 92 66 90 / 30 30 30 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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