368
FXUS64 KEPZ 232317
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
417 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 402 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS; BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT A LITTLE BREEZY TO
LOW END WINDY DAYS TUE/WED. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MEAN RIDGE SETTING UP OVER
THE WESTERN US AND THE BORDERLAND BEING UNDER A WARM WNW FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES GETTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL(10-20
DEGREES ABOVE) WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS INCLUDING WARMEST DAY IN FEB
AND EARLIEST 90 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR KELP.
FOR TUE AND WED, SURFACE LOW WILL SETUP OVER THE PANHANDLES WITH A
LEE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE BIG BEND AREA. BREEZY TO LOW
END WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, FOCUSED AROUND THE DEMING AREA
WITH 20-30MPH WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST BUT DO NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEING FELT,
ESPECIALLY WITH A MORE WEST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST DIRECTION
COMPARED TO THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS
LOOK TO STAY UP AT LEAST IN THE 5-15MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT, EVEN A
LITTLE STRONGER ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS/ORGANS THAT
WILL KEEP LOWS PRETTY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. RECORD HIGH
MINS FOR KELP ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND WE COULD BE CLOSE
WED OR THU MORNING.
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST WILL HELP SUPPRESS THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
BELOW EVEN 20 MPH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
START TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND WITH H85
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 25-26C RANGE AND WITH A CONTINUED WEST
WIND, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN WITH MOST
RECORDS AT KELP 81-85 DEGREES AND WE ARE LOOKING AT SOLID 85-88
DEGREE HIGHS WITH SOME AREAS IN THE LOWER VALLEY GETTING VERY
CLOSE TO 90.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 402 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
INCREASING SCT-BKN250 FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS INCREASING AFTER 18Z TO WEST
10-15G25 KNOTS. FEW AREAS OF BLDU POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLAND DESERT
AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COMING WEEK. SOME
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND WITH MIN RH'S MAINLY IN
THE TEENS WITH SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE WINDIEST DAYS LOOK
TO BE TUE/WED BUT EVEN THESE DAYS MAXIMUM SPEEDS WILL JUST BE NEAR
THE LOW END CRITICAL THRESHOLD. ERC'S EARLY ON ARE STILL FAIRLY
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT WILL QUICKLY GO UP BY THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE CONTINUED DAILY DRY CONDITIONS. RFTI STARTS TO
GET TO NEAR CRITICAL BY LEVELS GOING INTO SUNDAY. VENT RATES WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 37 74 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 77 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 34 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 56 39 56 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 39 69 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 32 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 33 74 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 38 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 30 78 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 36 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 37 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 38 78 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 29 78 41 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 32 80 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 80 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 35 74 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 37 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 31 65 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 31 62 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 25 74 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 31 77 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 70 30 71 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 32 72 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 75 33 78 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 71 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 35 77 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 33 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 36 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 74 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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