460
FXUS64 KEPZ 191805
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1205 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE
MONSOON PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON TODAY AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A RISK, INCLUDING THE EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO SHIFT A LITTLE WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE ON TUESDAY, THEN CLOSER TO THE ARIZONA BORDER
FOR WEDNESDAY.
- STORM CHANCES PLUMMET FROM WEDNESDAY,INTO THE WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. 100S MAY CREEP BACK
INTO THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
UPPER HIGH STILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA/KANSAS, WITH RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN TO WESTERN
ARIZONA/SOCAL. OLD CUT-OFF LOW IS PRETTY ILL DEFINED BUT LOOKS TO
STILL BE OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS FOR
TODAY (PWS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES); MAIN ISSUE WILL BE IF THE
LEFTOVER CLOUDS CAN DISSIPATE. MOUNTAIN ZONES ARE ALREADY MOSTLY
SUNNY AND GETTING THE FIRST CU BUILDUPS OF THE DAY AND THE
NORTHERN LOWLANDS LOOK TO BE THINNING OUT, WHILE THE CLOUDS CLOSER
TO THE BORDER REMAIN FAIRLY THICK. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO A
POSSIBLE MCV JUST SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO. VARIOUS MODELS (CAM AND
HEMISPHERIC) HAVE PLENTY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS, WITH SCATTERED EVENING STORMS ALL AREAS. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ALSO, THOUGH DCAPES ARE
RELATIVELY LOW, SEVERE, DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLY NEAR ANY WET
MICROBURSTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OLD UPPER LOW APPROACHES EL PASO MONDAY NIGHT
AND MOVES TO THE ARIZONA BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON OPENING UP INTO
AN INVERTED TROUGH. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION MONDAY, AND
WITH PWS MOSTLY UNCHANGED, FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE A THREAT.
BY TUESDAY, BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RG VALLEY,
WHICH WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA
INTO ARIZONA. ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CWA. PWS WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH WEDNESDAY AND BELOW THURSDAY, SO
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE DONE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TURNS DRY WITH MAYBE JUST THE
SLIGHTEST OF CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE LOWLANDS BACK
100-105 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
GENERALLY VFR WITH INCREASING SCT-BKN090 SCT-BKN250. DEVELOPING
NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BKN-OVC060CB 3-5SM TSRA.
STORMS SPREADING TO THE LOWLANDS AFTER 21Z. GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50
KNOTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS, ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT ALL TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY FINISHED BY 05Z-07Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK, AS MOISTURE/HUMIDITY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY,
BEFORE THE CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES OUT MOSTLY OVER AREAS DEMING WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH
LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN. MIN RHS LOWER WITH LOWLAND RHS
APPROACHING CRITICAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. NO
SIGNIFICANT NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS EXPECTED.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 35-45% THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN DECREASING TO 15-25%
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 50-70% THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN
DECREASING TO 20-35% BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD
THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 88 70 90 / 60 40 60 20
SIERRA BLANCA 63 82 62 88 / 70 70 40 20
LAS CRUCES 65 86 64 87 / 40 50 60 40
ALAMOGORDO 65 85 65 88 / 30 70 40 70
CLOUDCROFT 49 66 49 69 / 30 80 40 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 89 68 88 / 20 40 40 70
SILVER CITY 60 81 59 81 / 40 90 60 90
DEMING 65 89 64 90 / 50 60 50 60
LORDSBURG 65 87 64 86 / 50 70 70 80
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 86 70 89 / 60 40 60 20
DELL CITY 67 88 66 92 / 40 60 40 20
FORT HANCOCK 70 89 69 94 / 70 60 50 30
LOMA LINDA 64 80 63 83 / 60 60 60 30
FABENS 69 88 68 92 / 70 40 60 20
SANTA TERESA 67 86 66 89 / 60 40 60 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 87 71 89 / 30 60 60 40
JORNADA RANGE 66 87 66 88 / 20 50 50 60
HATCH 67 91 66 91 / 20 50 40 60
COLUMBUS 69 89 68 88 / 60 50 60 50
OROGRANDE 66 85 65 88 / 40 50 60 30
MAYHILL 54 77 54 80 / 30 70 30 70
MESCALERO 53 77 53 79 / 30 90 40 80
TIMBERON 51 73 51 76 / 30 70 60 70
WINSTON 58 82 58 81 / 40 60 40 80
HILLSBORO 64 86 64 86 / 20 60 40 80
SPACEPORT 64 87 63 88 / 20 50 40 60
LAKE ROBERTS 58 83 57 83 / 40 90 60 90
HURLEY 61 84 60 83 / 40 80 60 80
CLIFF 63 87 63 87 / 40 80 50 90
MULE CREEK 59 84 58 84 / 40 90 50 90
FAYWOOD 62 84 62 83 / 30 80 60 80
ANIMAS 65 87 64 86 / 60 70 70 80
HACHITA 63 86 63 85 / 60 70 70 70
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 84 64 85 / 70 70 70 80
CLOVERDALE 61 80 61 80 / 50 70 70 80
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page