118
FXUS64 KEPZ 271125
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
525 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 320 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
- THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE BENIGN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE
SIT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM, CONDITIONS CONTINUE VERY DRY, WINDS LIGHTER,
BUT STILL BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
OUR SPRING WIND MAKER (UL TROUGH) IS EXITING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS
AT MY TYPING THOUGH PLENTY OF JET ENERGY IS TRAILING BEHIND. WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY FOR MAINLY THE EAST SLOPE AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE
UPPER JET WILL REMAIN OVER NM FOR MONDAY AS WELL, SO IT WILL BE
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT NEARLY LIKE TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST NBM AND 00Z HRRR ARE A
LITTLE UNDER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, BUT I WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS
SEE IF THAT DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS CONTINUES.
TUESDAY WILL SEE EVEN LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY AS THE JET ALOFT
WEAKENS WITH BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WEST TX. WINDS DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE TRANSLATES THROUGH THE
DESERT SW.
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS A STRUGGLE. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO SHOW A CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF THE SOCAL/ BAJA COAST.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE ALIGNED IN THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW AS
IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DESERT SW, BUT THERE STILL RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES. GFS IS ALSO A LITTLE QUICKER WITH PRECIP
ARRIVAL ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, VERY SLOWLY, THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
FINALLY EXITING SOMETIME SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE WITH LOWEST POPS SOUTH AND HIGHEST
NORTH. THE NBM ENDS POPS EARLY SATURDAY, BUT THE 12Z EURO KEEPS
PRECIP THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE
DRY SLOT, WHICH MAY KEEP PLACES LIKE EL PASO RAIN-FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
WE WILL HAVE BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY, BUT NOWHERE NEAR WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. BY LATE MORNING WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SOME
LOW END WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST 26010G18KT. THOSE LOW END WIND
GUSTS WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER).
CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE UNLIMITED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
MIN RH'S IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LOWLANDS AND FROM 15 TO 20%
IN AREA MOUNTAINS. WE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY,
BUT NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE WILL SEE EVEN LESS
WINDS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT STILL CONTINUED VERY DRY. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING MOISTURE, CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDE
SPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 60 42 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 82 54 82 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 41 73 49 73 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 45 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 43 81 50 79 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 57 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 87 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 79 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 83 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 48 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 73 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 70 44 70 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 41 70 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 75 41 73 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 47 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 44 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 74 43 74 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 39 77 46 77 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 40 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 38 75 45 75 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 44 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 44 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 44 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 85 53 83 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 45 78 54 77 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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