797
FXUS64 KEPZ 081831
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1231 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK, THEN WARMING FOR
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY REGION-WIDE WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED STORMS OUT WEST LATE SATURDAY.
- MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
A BRIEF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE LOWLANDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BETTER EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MOVING INTO OUR
AREA WITH A LINGERING W-E TROUGH AND ENHANCED DIURNAL HEATING. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS THANKS TO AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AS
A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHICH INCREASES
MOISTURE LEVELS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
POPS REALLY TAKE OFF LATE SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT THE GREATEST PWS REMAIN TO THE EAST AS MOISTURE GETS
PULLED AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS TREND REMAINS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHERE WE'RE SEEING THE GFS SHIFT MOST OF THE INCOMING
MOISTURE FROM TS SIMON TO OUR EAST WITH THE ACCOMPANYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING ITS MOISTURE NORTH OF US.
THE ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THE PRIMARY AREA
OF IMPACT FROM RAINFALL TOTALS WHICH WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PATH OF TS SIMON, BUT IT'S BEEN TRENDING
CONSISTENTLY EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS EXCESS MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
P6SM SKC-SCT060-080 WITH ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE GILA
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREA TERMINALS TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST AOB 12KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RH'S TO BE
AT THEIR MINIMUM OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH 20S ON THE LOWLANDS AND
30S/40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE GILA THIS AFTERNOON AND STARTING AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 80 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 58 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 56 82 56 84 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 59 40 61 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 76 55 76 / 10 0 0 20
DEMING 55 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 84 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 88 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 77 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 62 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 60 83 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 58 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 71 47 73 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 46 71 46 73 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 68 41 70 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 46 74 46 73 / 10 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 58 81 58 81 / 10 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 54 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 40 75 40 74 / 10 0 10 30
HURLEY 52 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 47 84 47 83 / 10 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 43 81 43 80 / 10 0 0 20
FAYWOOD 53 79 53 79 / 10 0 0 20
ANIMAS 57 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 58 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 58 81 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ/42-FARLOW
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