460
FXUS64 KEPZ 010453
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1053 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
EAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
- BREEZY WEST FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
A CUTOFF LOW IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TO EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE INT'L
BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SPANNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE BULK
OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
GILA REGION AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
A SECONDARY RESURGENCE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH SOME BREEZY
EAST WINDS.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AREA, WHICH IS
WHAT WILL GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO SEE RAIN. RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN ON SUNDAY, BUT EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL STILL HAVE
SOME SURFACE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN
THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO ALLOW FOR SOME LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS ACTIVE AGAIN. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO BRING US
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING WEST TO EAST STARTING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE BULK OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD BY
SUNRISE. LINGERING SHOWERY ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION TO THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON.
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KELP HAS A CHANCE TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING IN BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING FROM THE NORTH, SHIFTING WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN EASTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOAKING RAINFALL WILL MOSTLY FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE,
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES. A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL SETUP OVER THE
SOUTHERN GILA REGION, WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF CATRON
COUNTY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT THE
RECENT RAINFALL WILL MITIGATE CONCERNS AND KEEP RH VALUES
ELEVATED. BUT CAUTION IS NOTED AS THE PARTS OF THE GILA MAY MISS
OUT ON THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, INCLUDING THE GILA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 68 50 71 / 100 60 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 62 43 66 / 90 70 20 10
LAS CRUCES 48 67 45 69 / 90 50 40 10
ALAMOGORDO 49 64 43 67 / 90 80 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 32 40 29 46 / 90 90 40 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 67 47 67 / 30 60 40 30
SILVER CITY 43 68 42 66 / 60 60 40 20
DEMING 49 74 47 72 / 80 60 40 10
LORDSBURG 48 75 47 72 / 70 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 66 50 70 / 100 60 20 0
DELL CITY 49 61 44 67 / 90 80 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 54 70 48 74 / 90 70 20 0
LOMA LINDA 47 58 42 63 / 100 70 20 10
FABENS 54 68 48 73 / 100 60 20 0
SANTA TERESA 51 66 47 69 / 100 50 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 65 50 69 / 90 70 40 10
JORNADA RANGE 49 67 44 69 / 80 50 50 20
HATCH 51 72 47 71 / 70 60 50 20
COLUMBUS 53 74 49 73 / 90 30 30 10
OROGRANDE 50 63 45 66 / 90 80 30 10
MAYHILL 36 49 32 57 / 90 90 50 20
MESCALERO 37 50 32 58 / 90 90 40 30
TIMBERON 36 49 32 54 / 90 80 40 20
WINSTON 39 61 37 60 / 30 60 50 40
HILLSBORO 48 67 45 66 / 50 60 50 30
SPACEPORT 49 68 44 67 / 50 60 40 20
LAKE ROBERTS 39 68 38 66 / 50 60 50 30
HURLEY 43 69 41 68 / 60 60 30 20
CLIFF 45 76 46 74 / 50 40 20 20
MULE CREEK 42 74 43 71 / 40 20 20 20
FAYWOOD 46 67 42 66 / 70 70 40 20
ANIMAS 48 76 48 74 / 90 10 10 0
HACHITA 47 73 46 71 / 90 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 74 47 73 / 90 10 20 0
CLOVERDALE 45 70 46 70 / 90 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page