074
FXUS64 KEPZ 192328
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
528 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
A VERY SLOW PROGRESSING SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED FROM
NEAR THE ID/MT BORDER REGION SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES.
THIS RIDGE AXIS FINALLY GETS EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE TUE. THE
CWA WILL REMAIN IN A LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WITH
WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO GET
MORE INTO DEEPER WESTERLIES STARTING TUE. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE FROM SW TO NE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN MONDAY AND BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY VERY DRY OVER THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS BUT
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL HELP FOR
TOMORROW. DIDN'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM NBM POPS WITH GENERALLY
ISOLATED OVER THE LOWLANDS AND SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
WILL BE OVER NE HALF OF AREA. SOME AREAS WILL HAVE 500-1000J/KG
CAPE, BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO EXPECTING MAYBE A COUPLE STRONGER
STORMS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL BUT SEVERE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
AS WE GET INTO TUE AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, THE REGION COMES
UNDER A MORE ZONAL TO WSW FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE DOING THE SAME. IT IS APRIL AND THERE WILL ALSO BE A MEAN
LEE TROUGH/LOW WHICH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DAILY
STARTING WED. AT THIS POINT, FRI LOOKS LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY,
ALTHOUGH NO ONE DAY REALLY STANDS OUT. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS, BUT SOME PATCHY DUST COULD BE PICKED UP. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP INTO THE 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH RH'S FALLING TO
AROUND 10%, SO FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA
THROUGH 03Z FOR AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INCLUDING
KELP AND KDMN. AS THESE ISO -SHRA/-TSRA MOVE OUT OF MEXICO,
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PROMOTE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH 03Z. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z WITH SKIES SCT-BKN AT 10 KFT WITH BKN AT 15-20 KFT.
WINDS WILL BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT AT 4-8 KNOTS AND VRB AFTER
06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP RH'S WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY BUT DRIER AIR STARTS MOVING
INTO THE WEST ON TUE AND AREAWIDE BY WED. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MORESO MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MON/TUE BUT
STARTING WED, EXPECT DAILY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
GENERALLY 15-25G35MPH EACH DAY, SO SOME CRITICAL AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY BUT BY TUE WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 81 56 86 / 20 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 44 75 48 80 / 30 50 30 20
LAS CRUCES 46 78 50 83 / 20 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 46 78 49 83 / 10 40 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 34 57 38 60 / 10 50 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 78 52 82 / 10 40 10 10
SILVER CITY 44 73 47 77 / 10 30 10 10
DEMING 47 82 48 85 / 20 20 10 10
LORDSBURG 48 80 50 83 / 20 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 80 56 86 / 20 20 20 10
DELL CITY 44 78 47 85 / 20 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 49 83 54 88 / 30 40 20 20
LOMA LINDA 46 74 52 79 / 20 30 20 10
FABENS 50 83 55 87 / 30 20 20 10
SANTA TERESA 49 79 53 84 / 20 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 80 55 85 / 10 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 44 79 45 84 / 10 30 10 10
HATCH 46 82 47 87 / 10 30 10 10
COLUMBUS 50 83 54 87 / 20 10 0 10
OROGRANDE 46 78 50 83 / 10 30 20 10
MAYHILL 38 67 44 72 / 10 40 20 20
MESCALERO 37 68 41 72 / 10 50 20 20
TIMBERON 37 65 41 69 / 20 40 20 20
WINSTON 37 70 40 76 / 10 60 10 10
HILLSBORO 46 77 50 82 / 10 40 10 10
SPACEPORT 44 78 46 84 / 10 30 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 39 73 43 77 / 10 40 10 10
HURLEY 41 76 45 80 / 10 30 0 10
CLIFF 44 80 46 81 / 10 30 0 0
MULE CREEK 44 77 45 79 / 10 20 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 75 48 79 / 10 30 10 10
ANIMAS 46 81 49 84 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 45 80 47 84 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 80 50 84 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 77 52 78 / 10 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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