719
FXUS64 KEPZ 292336
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
536 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
VERY DRY AIR WILL INCREASE RISK OF WILDFIRES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO
THIS EVENING. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF
THE US-54 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOWS A JET STREAK EJECTING
OVER THE DAKOTAS, WHICH WAS OUR WIND-MAKER LAST WEEKEND. A
SECONDARY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRA MADRES IN CA WILL CROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS, WHICH WILL BE THE
PREVAILING WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FRIDAY.
OVERALL, BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS NEXT FEW DAYS, KEEPING MUCH OF SW NM
DRY. LEE SURFACE LOW FORMATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL CO TODAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF NM. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED A DRYING
TREND FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD.
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE EXISTS FURTHER EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS, DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PULLING A PLUME OF MOISTURE UP OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.0-1.2" AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED (20-30%
COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. LOCALLY, THIS
WILL AFFECT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO ONLY SUCH AS HUDSPETH
COUNTY. SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN OTERO COUNTY COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEK. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE SEVERE, BUT
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TYPICAL OF LATE JUNE, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO 100 DEGREES.
OVERALL, LOOKS LIKE A WARM AND DRY WEEK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH MOISTURE LIMITED JUST TOO FAR EAST. DECENT
CHANCE EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES STAY DRY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY HOLIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD THE 100-104
RANGE AGAIN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE APPROACHING KELP FROM THE SOUTH TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD, APPEARING WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. GUSTS TO 25KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE S FOR KELP FROM THE OUTFLOWS AND WITH SOME
BLDU, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VIS REDUCTIONS. -SHRA PERSIST SE OF
KELP INTO TONIGHT, STAYING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. GUSTS TO
20-25KTS THIS EVENING FROM SW, SUBSIDING TO AOB 10KTS OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR GILA NATIONAL FOREST ON
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND MIN RH 12 TO 18%
CAUSING A FEW HOURS OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. FUEL MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK DRYNESS AND ONGOING DROUGHT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO HAS ERCS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
WILDFIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW DAYS, EVIDENT WITH THE
SACATON FIRE BEING VISIBLE ON SATELLITE.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO
NO RAIN CHANCES. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY,
THOUGH FURTHER DRYING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO SINGLE-DIGIT RH
ACROSS GILA NF. MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 96 73 97 / 10 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 90 64 91 / 30 30 30 20
LAS CRUCES 69 94 67 95 / 0 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 95 68 96 / 0 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 72 51 73 / 0 20 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 62 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 97 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 66 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 0
DELL CITY 69 95 66 95 / 10 20 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 72 96 70 97 / 30 30 40 10
LOMA LINDA 68 88 66 90 / 10 10 10 0
FABENS 72 97 70 98 / 20 10 20 0
SANTA TERESA 72 94 70 95 / 10 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 95 73 96 / 0 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 95 67 95 / 0 10 10 0
HATCH 70 98 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 93 67 94 / 10 10 20 0
MAYHILL 58 83 55 84 / 0 30 10 10
MESCALERO 56 83 54 84 / 0 20 10 10
TIMBERON 53 80 51 81 / 10 20 20 10
WINSTON 58 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 65 94 63 95 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 63 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 63 94 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 64 90 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 66 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 66 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 94 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 88 61 89 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page