946
FXUS64 KEPZ 261123
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
523 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
- RECORD MARCH WARMTH ON THURSDAY. LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID NINETIES. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WEST WINDS.
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY EAST WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIMITED
MOSTLY TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT, MAKING A VERY SLOW EASTWARD
CRAWL. CONTINUED RECORD MARCH WARMTH AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ARE 20 TO 25
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH, AND WILL LIKELY BREAK
DAILY RECORDS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST. 995 MB LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PROMOTE WEST FLOW 15 TO 20 MPH
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS ISN'T A BIG CONCERN FOR
MOST, BUT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN FIRE WEATHER GIVEN THE ABNORMAL
WARMTH AND DRYNESS.
STRONG 1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT, REACHING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY EAST WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE OTERO MESA, WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WEST SLOPES. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A 15 TO
25 DEGREE COOLING IN TEMPERATURES (LOWLAND HIGHS MID TO UPPER
70S), WHICH KNOCKS US BACK DOWN TO "NORMAL". RECENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTS HAVE KICKED UP QUITE A BIT OF DUST OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST
TX, SO EL PASO MAY BE HAZY THAT AFTERNOON. COOL, EAST FLOW
CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, THOUGH LIGHTER THAN FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, BUT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER GIVEN THE
RECENT RECORD WARMTH.
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND, LEAVING US IN A SOUTH FLOW
REGIME AND ALLOWING A FETCH OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION
WATER 0.50-0.75". BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO FAVOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. ANY
RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND LOW QPF.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BENEATH SKC-FEW250. WINDS WILL START
OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT AROUND 17Z OR SO WILL BECOME WESTERLY
(250-280) FOR ALL SITES. SPEEDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP WELL INTO THE SINGLE-
DIGITS FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS
FINISH 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TWENTY-FOOT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A
COMPACT S/W TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GILA, AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT ZONE. THE WINDS WILL FOSTER VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ACROSS NEARLY ALL AREAS.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM AND FAR WEST TX WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST FACING SLOPES AND RIDGE
LINES. WITH THE COOLER AIR ALBEIT SEASONAL, THERE WILL BE
IMPROVEMENTS IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES WITH MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
EXPECTED. FOR AREAS NEAR THE AZ BORDER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15%. THUS, COMBINING WITH
THE BREEZY WINDS, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY NEAR OR EXCEED CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT WARMER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT FOR ANY LOCATION LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE A SHOWER. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY, WHICH MEANS THERE WILL BE A LOW
RISK (AROUND 10%) FOR DRY LIGHTNING, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 75 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 79 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 77 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 50 26 56 / 0 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 75 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 79 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 51 82 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 49 83 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 76 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 48 69 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 78 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 76 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 80 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 81 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 50 84 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 82 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 76 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 57 29 69 / 0 10 0 0
MESCALERO 40 60 29 66 / 0 10 0 0
TIMBERON 42 59 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 43 69 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 76 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 78 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 77 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 48 78 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 87 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 84 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 76 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 51 84 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 82 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 82 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 80 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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