980
FXUS64 KEPZ 201800
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S, NEAR DAILY RECORDS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORM
LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. DRY
CONDITIONS SPREAD AREA WIDE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
TODAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH LEVELS FOR THE
LOWLANDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (100-103). WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN NE FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SPARK THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THIS WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGION.
HOWEVER, THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND RECYCLED MOISTURE
(MOSTLY ALOFT) WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS, THOUGH MAINLY NORTH OF EL
PASO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST HREF MEMBERS AND OTHER CAMS AS
WELL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS, BUT AGAIN, MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, AS THE
LOWLANDS WILL SEE DEWPOINTS MIX-OUT INTO THE 40S.
FRIDAY WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS, WITH A LITTLE LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. STORMS AGAIN WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND DRIFT SW TOWARDS THE LOWLANDS, AND LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN SIERRA AND NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTIES
AND PARTS OF THE TULAROSA BASIN.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE GILA PERHAPS BEING THE LONE HOLDOUT FOR
SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER (-4C AT 500MB) AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES A LITTLE CLOSER,
OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IT'LL SLOWLY SPRAWL-OUT, WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA EASTWARD TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT, PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HEAVILY
SUPPRESSED, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS MAY COME CLOSE TO
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE EL PASO LOWER VALLEY ON SOME
DAYS, BUT MOST LOWLAND AREAS LOOK TO SEE HIGHS AROUND 100 TO
103.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
MOSTLY VFR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE FOCUSED OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE GILA REGION. NE TO SW STORM MOTION
FAVORS LOWLAND PROPAGATION, BUT THEY'LL BE RUNNING INTO A POOR
ENVIRONMENT. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AT ANY OF
THE LOWLAND TERMINALS, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE 20 PERCENT OR LESS
AT ELP AND LRU. TCS HAS THE BEST CHANCE, BUT GUSTY OUTFLOWS (30
TO 40 KNOTS) ARE THE BETTER BET THERE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH LEVELS FOR THE LOWLANDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR (100-103). HOWEVER, THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND RECYCLED MOISTURE (MOSTLY ALOFT) WORKING AROUND
THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE
LOWLANDS, THOUGH MAINLY NORTH OF EL PASO. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT AGAIN, MOSTLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, AS THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE DEWPOINTS
MIX-OUT INTO THE 40S. FRIDAY WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS, WITH A
LITTLE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. STORMS AGAIN WILL FAVOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT SW TOWARDS THE LOWLANDS, AND LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE GILA PERHAPS BEING THE LONE HOLDOUT FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
DRIER AND WARMER (-4C AT 500MB) AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES A LITTLE CLOSER, OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. IT'LL SLOWLY SPRAWL-OUT, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN ARIZONA EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT,
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HEAVILY SUPPRESSED, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES SHOULD BE VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 102 76 102 / 10 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 101 67 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 70 102 70 101 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 101 71 100 / 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 77 54 77 / 10 50 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 100 72 100 / 10 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 64 94 65 93 / 10 20 10 10
DEMING 71 102 71 101 / 10 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 70 102 72 101 / 10 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 103 78 103 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 71 104 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 104 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 102 74 102 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 102 76 101 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 102 71 100 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 72 104 72 103 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 75 103 75 101 / 10 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 70 101 70 100 / 10 10 0 0
MAYHILL 59 89 59 90 / 0 30 10 10
MESCALERO 58 88 57 86 / 10 50 10 30
TIMBERON 57 88 56 87 / 10 20 10 10
WINSTON 62 90 62 91 / 20 20 10 20
HILLSBORO 70 99 69 96 / 10 10 20 0
SPACEPORT 70 101 70 101 / 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 90 59 90 / 10 20 10 50
HURLEY 65 96 67 94 / 10 10 10 0
CLIFF 66 100 67 99 / 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 65 96 65 96 / 10 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 68 96 69 95 / 10 10 10 0
ANIMAS 71 102 72 101 / 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 70 100 71 100 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 99 70 99 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 68 97 68 96 / 10 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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