662
FXUS64 KEPZ 141213
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
613 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEADING TO
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER
NINETIES LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
IT WOULDN'T BE MARCH WITHOUT SOME WIND, BUT REALLY, IT HAS NOT
BEEN TOO BAD, SO FAR THIS WINDY SEASON. WINDS ON FRIDAY WEREN'T
TOO BAD, BUT A SLOWLY PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL GIVE US
WINDY CONDITIONS, SATURDAY, SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND ITS PASSAGE IS NOT
TIMED WELL TO MAXIMIZE THE WINDS, SO INSTEAD OF ONE REALLY WINDY
DAY, WE WILL END UP WITH TWO MODERATELY WINDY DAYS. TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION
AND SWING OUR WINDS AROUND FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. THIS COOLER
AIR WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER. OUR COOL DOWN WON'T LAST LONG, BY LATE
TUESDAY OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THAT
WILL JUMP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THEN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, A STRONG AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF OUR WEATHER AND THAT
WILL ONLY PUSH OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER AND WARMER AND WARMER.
BY NEXT FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHICH WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY. I
KNOW THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE MUCH FUN, BUT THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE STRONG WINDS AND DUST AWAY, AT LEAST FOR
A WHILE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKIES SCT-BKN250. SURFACE WINDS
BEGINNING 250-280 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING, BUT WILL INCREASE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 250-270 AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS S NM AND W TX THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNLIMITED WITH PATCHY BLOWING
DUST. WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY 15G25KT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 600 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TODAY
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXPECTED OVER LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST TODAY
DUE TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 15
TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
MIN RH 8 TO 15%, INCREASING THE RISK OF WILDFIRES. FUEL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DUE
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PROLONGED DRYNESS. ERCS CURRENTLY
JUST UNDER THE 90TH PERCENTILE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS WEEK. NO
RED FLAG TODAY FOR GILA NF DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS NOT MEETING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN ON SUNDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG EAST SLOPES. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, CAUSING A SUDDEN WIND
SHIFT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SOAR TOWARD
RECORD HIGHS FOR MID-MARCH. WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL BE LIGHTER THUS
NO FURTHER FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 85 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 79 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 49 81 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 81 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 55 23 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 82 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 74 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 47 83 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 43 78 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 83 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 50 83 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 87 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 76 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 85 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 81 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 84 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 83 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 48 86 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 83 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 81 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 70 21 59 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 67 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 44 66 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 43 73 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 81 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 81 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 74 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 44 76 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 42 81 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 77 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 77 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 45 80 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 79 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 80 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 75 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH
COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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