035
FXUS64 KEPZ 030954
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
354 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 353 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON BREEZES TODAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING
GUSTY OVERNIGHT WINDS AND ALSO INTRODUCING SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
- SOME MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW CHANCES, 20%,
LINGERING FOR MAINLY THE GILA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
LONG WAVE SOMEWHAT LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING WITH A LOW OVER WY. THIS PATTERN PLACES
US AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POLAR JET WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH.
THIS IS KEEPING OUR WEATHER WARM AND BREEZY WITH A COUPLE TO FEW
DEGREES WARMING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM OVER WY WILL CONTINUE EAST, REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, COLDER CANADIAN/ NORTHERN PLAINS
AIR VIA A 1027 MB HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH COOLER
AIR FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LATTER WILL REACH
US FIRST VIA A SIDE DOOR FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR
CWA FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EASTERLY COMPONENT FOLLOWING IN ITS
HEELS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SEND HIGHS DOWNWARD FOR SATURDAY
ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST SLOPES OF FAR WEST
TEXAS.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING RECYCLED GULF MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX ON EASTERLY FLOW WITH SOME IMPACTS
NOTED AS SOON AS SUNDAY. PROG DEWPOINTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE (25-35 SLOWLY INCREASING), BUT MODEST DYNAMICS VIA
FRONTAL OVERRUNNING AND SUBTLE UL TROUGH, LOOK TO CHURN OUT SOME
RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY. THE NBM IS EXCITED
FOR RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA WITH 70 POPS. GIVEN THE DRY
LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING, I WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH RAINFALL
IF ANY OCCURS. THE POPS EXTEND NORTHWESTWARD, COVERING MUCH OF THE
CWA, BUT I EXPECT ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWERS, IF ANYTHING, GIVEN
MEAGER SURFACE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THE PATTERN PRETTY MUCH LOCKS INTO PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WEAK BUT BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS SATURDAY'S
FRONT STALLED OUT OVER EASTERN AZ WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WANE, BUT LOW POPS CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS THOSE LOW POPS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK S/W TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NM AND
SOUTHERN CO. THAT SAME TROUGH, WAY LESS DEFINED IN THE EURO, WILL
PUSH MOISTURE BACK EAST AS SW'LY FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL AFTER SPENDING FOUR DAYS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT150 SCT-BKN250.
SURFACE WINDS WEST AOB 8 KNOTS. AFTER 18Z...WINDS INCREASING TO
WEST 15-20G30 KNOTS. A FEW PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. AFTER
03Z...COLD FRONT SWEEPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN WINDS TO
NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KNOTS. STRONGER NORTH WINDS OF 25G40
KNOTS POSSIBLE DOWN THE SIERRA LAKES-NORTHERN LUNA COUNTY AND
ALSO DOWN THE TULAROSA BASIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN. COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE FIRE ZONES LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH GUSTY WINDS
TO 30 MPH LATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT IN NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELED
AREAS SUCH AS THE SIERRA LAKES REGION AND THE TULAROSA BASIN.
BREEZY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE CONCERNS.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL
GIVE THE FIRE ZONES A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND
POSSIBLE LASTING INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 10-15% TODAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING TO 25-35%
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOUNTAINS 13-20% TODAY AND SATURDAY
INCREASING TO 30-45% SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. VENT RATES VERY
GOOD-EXCELLENT TODAY, BECOMING GOOD-VERY GOOD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, THEN FAIR-GOOD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 75 53 68 / 0 0 10 50
SIERRA BLANCA 47 68 47 59 / 0 0 30 70
LAS CRUCES 47 74 48 66 / 0 0 10 40
ALAMOGORDO 41 75 42 69 / 0 0 0 30
CLOUDCROFT 32 53 32 47 / 0 0 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 73 49 69 / 0 0 0 30
SILVER CITY 42 70 45 63 / 0 0 0 30
DEMING 49 76 49 70 / 0 0 10 40
LORDSBURG 45 75 50 70 / 0 0 0 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 75 55 66 / 0 0 10 50
DELL CITY 47 71 47 63 / 0 0 10 40
FORT HANCOCK 50 78 52 68 / 0 0 30 70
LOMA LINDA 49 68 47 58 / 0 0 10 50
FABENS 51 76 54 68 / 0 0 10 50
SANTA TERESA 49 74 52 65 / 0 0 10 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 74 53 66 / 0 0 10 30
JORNADA RANGE 42 74 43 66 / 0 0 0 30
HATCH 44 77 44 70 / 0 0 10 30
COLUMBUS 52 77 54 69 / 0 0 10 30
OROGRANDE 43 72 43 66 / 0 0 10 40
MAYHILL 34 62 35 56 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 34 64 35 58 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 36 60 36 54 / 0 0 10 30
WINSTON 32 67 36 61 / 0 0 0 30
HILLSBORO 45 72 45 65 / 0 0 0 30
SPACEPORT 39 74 41 68 / 0 0 0 30
LAKE ROBERTS 32 71 35 65 / 0 0 0 40
HURLEY 40 72 42 66 / 0 0 0 30
CLIFF 33 77 37 74 / 0 0 0 30
MULE CREEK 30 75 33 71 / 0 0 0 30
FAYWOOD 45 71 45 63 / 0 0 0 30
ANIMAS 47 76 50 73 / 0 0 0 20
HACHITA 47 75 49 69 / 0 0 0 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 76 49 74 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 50 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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