755
FXUS64 KEPZ 240418
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1018 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
- MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FRIDAY, WITH JUST ISOLATED
STORMS MAINLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
- HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING THE HEAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK NEAR 105 AROUND EL PASO, THE MESILLA
VALLEY, AND OTHER LOWER ELEVATION AREAS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE DIGITS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
STILL MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 828 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
BEGIN LAST TRANSMISSION:
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS NOW CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO, AND THAT WAS EVIDENT TODAY WITH ANOTHER LARGE
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT BOTH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TONIGHT EPZ UPPER-AIR SOUNDING, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME MUCH DRIER AT ALL LEVELS, AND WARMER ALOFT, BOTH ADDING TO
ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION. OVER EPZ, THE SURFACE DEWPOINT HAS
DROPPED LOW ENOUGH, THAT EVEN WITH A 100 DEGREE MAX TEMPERATURE,
SURFACE PARCELS COULD NOT BREAK THROUGH WARM CAPPING LAYERS ALOFT.
THE DEEPER AND BETTER MOISTURE IS NOW PUSHED TO THE GILA, WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW SETTLED IN ACROSS THE OTHER 80% OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS, THEY THINK TODAY WAS AS DRY
AS IT WILL GET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DAILY MINIMAL
INCREASES IN MOISTURE, FROM THE NORTH (OF ALL PLACES) GOING FORWARD.
AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE, GIVEN THE PATTERN AND POSITION OF THE
HIGH ALOFT. THE SLOWLY RETURNING MOISTURE, WILL BE A REPEAT VISITOR
,FROM THE SAME MOISTURE THE UPPER HIGH SHOVED OUT, AND HAS NOW SPUN
W, N, E, AND BACK SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO, ON THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NM. THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SACS, AND
CONTINUED STORMS OVER THE GILA REGION. WE WILL SEE A SHIFT IN STORM
MOTION TOMORROW, FROM SE TO NW TO A MOTION FROM NE TO SW. DESPITE
THE SMALL INCREASES IN MOISTURE, MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL STILL
HAVE MINIMAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOWLAND 100
DEGREE MAX TEMPS.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE A MIX OF MOIST AND DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA, TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH, AND RECYCLED EACH HEAT CYCLE INTO
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED (AT BEST) LOWLAND SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET WIDESPREAD AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD, AND ARE LOOKING TO THE EAST
FOR THE PRESENCE OF ANY APPROACHING DISTURBANCE TO ENHANCE
RAIN/STORM CHANCES. FORMER TS BERTHA PASSES TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SO FAR
SOUTH WE DON'T LOOK TO GET ANY MOISTURE OR DYNAMIC HELP OVER OUR
AREA.
NEXT WEEK DOESN'T LOOK REAL GOOD FOR MOST OF THE BORDERLAND, IF YOU
ARE HOPING FOR MORE RAIN, CLOUDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER
HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THE BULK OF ANY MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME CONCENTRATED TO THE WEST
OVER AZ AND W NM. THUS, IT APPEARS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST OVER OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, AND
SCATTERED OVER THE BOOTHEEL/GILA AREAS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE WARM, WITH 100 DEGREE DAILY HIGHS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
END LAST TRANSMISSION: BIRD OUT
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 828 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AT ALL TERMINALS. SKIES FEW-SCT250 TO SKC. WINDS VRB 3-7KTS.
STORM CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY, CONTINUING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100S OVER THE
LOWLANDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED AND MOSTLY
FOCUSED OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A FOCUS FOR STORMS STILL
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOCATIONS NEAR THE AZ BORDER.
MIN RHS WILL STAY GENERALLY NEAR CRITICAL WITH SOME CRITICAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
AREA MOUNTAINS SEEING RHS OF 25-45%. 20 FOOT WINDS STAY LIGHT
EACH AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 105 80 102 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 99 69 96 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 71 102 74 100 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 75 102 76 99 / 0 10 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 56 78 56 76 / 10 30 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 101 76 100 / 0 10 20 20
SILVER CITY 67 94 68 93 / 0 20 10 40
DEMING 71 103 74 102 / 0 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 72 100 75 100 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 79 105 82 101 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 74 106 74 100 / 0 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 107 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 72 97 72 94 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 76 106 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 75 103 78 100 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 103 81 101 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 74 103 77 100 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 72 104 76 103 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 75 104 78 103 / 0 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 73 102 75 99 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 60 90 61 87 / 10 30 10 40
MESCALERO 61 90 61 87 / 10 30 10 50
TIMBERON 58 88 59 86 / 0 20 10 30
WINSTON 63 92 65 91 / 10 30 20 40
HILLSBORO 70 99 73 98 / 0 20 20 20
SPACEPORT 71 102 74 100 / 0 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 61 95 62 94 / 10 20 20 60
HURLEY 67 98 70 97 / 0 10 10 20
CLIFF 68 100 69 99 / 0 10 10 50
MULE CREEK 67 96 68 95 / 0 10 10 50
FAYWOOD 69 97 71 96 / 0 10 10 20
ANIMAS 72 100 75 100 / 10 0 10 0
HACHITA 70 100 73 100 / 0 0 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 100 73 100 / 0 0 10 0
CLOVERDALE 68 95 70 95 / 10 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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