715
FXUS64 KEPZ 051814
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1114 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
MAINLY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
- COOL FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY EAST WINDS.
- LOW-END RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING FOR MONDAY
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT, BRINGING
US TWO DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS INSTEAD OF ONE WINDY DAY. SW WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH,
CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AND DOWNWIND OF WHITE SANDS. DUST MODELS ARE HITTING EL PASO THE
HARDEST LATER TODAY AS THE DUST SOURCES IN NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
ACTIVATE. VISIBILITY TO 3 MILES OR LOWER CAN BE SEEN INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE SETTLING OVERNIGHT. I'D BE SURPRISED IF WE ISSUED
DSWS LATER TODAY, BUT BLDU ADVISORIES I COULD SEE.
WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY TONIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT COMES THROUGH,
STAYING SOMEWHAT BREEZY INTO THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SACS
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. 700MB WINDS OF AROUND 55KTS
ARE MODELED BY THE REFS FRI AM OVER THE SACS, CREATING MTN WAVE
ACTIVITY FOR THE EAST SLOPES AND AREAS FURTHER EAST. OTHER EAST
MTN SLOPES WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT, PARTICULARLY
THE BLACKS AND ORGANS. COOLER TEMPS AND LINGERING BREEZINESS IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH A LOWER THREAT OF BLOWING DUST DUE TO
MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRI.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SAT, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
E-NE AND PUMPING IN SOME MOISTURE. WEST MTN SLOPES WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS SAT NIGHT, OTHERWISE THERE WON'T BE MUCH
IMPACT, AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE ADDED MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL COMBINE WITH A NEWLY DEVELOPED CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS LOW TO OUR WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES START SAT NIGHT, FOCUSING IN
HUDSPETH. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BE OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE
WEEK, BUT MOISTURE MAY HOLD US BACK FROM GETTING GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE GOOD SHEAR AND SOME
INSTABILITY, SO ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHTNING. AS THE LOW COMES CLOSER ON MONDAY INTO SONORA, IT'LL
SUPPLY ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS MODELED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
OR THE BORDERLAND ON TUE, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ALIVE BEFORE
ENDING TUE NIGHT AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE LOW TRACKS, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUE AS
WELL. TEMPS WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER S-SE
FLOW. AFTER A COOLDOWN ON TUE, UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS, LIGHTER
WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM, GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS INTO THE
EVENING. PATCHY BLDU MAY BE SEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR KELP WITH VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3 SM OR LESS
POSSIBLE. WINDS STAY MODESTLY BREEZY (10-15KTS) THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FOR ALL TERMINALS AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY. A SWATH OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD LATER TODAY,
OTHERWISE SKC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE
SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
TOWARDS THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER THREAT. ERCS ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE 90TH %-ILE IN THE SACS, LOWER ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS WHY RFWS ARE
NOT IN EFFECT OUTSIDE THE SACS. THIS AFTERNOON'S WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH AT 20 FEET WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH,
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER IN FAR WEST TX. RFTIS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE 3-5 RANGE WITH POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WX, BUT GENERALLY
NEAR- CRITICAL. TODAY AND TOMORROW WOULD BE IN THE LOW-END RED
FLAG CATEGORY AS WINDS WON'T BE VERY STRONG AND FUELS ARE NOT A
MAJOR PROBLEM, YET. A BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY, SHIFTING
WINDS E-NE WITH SOME GUSTINESS AND BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE.
A LOW NEAR BAJA INCREASES THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOWS COULD BE THREATS. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS THE LOW SWEEPS
ACROSS. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY, WARMING
BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 8-15% THROUGH FRIDAY, RISING TO 20-35% BY
SUNDAY. VENTILATION WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 44 70 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 40 65 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 41 65 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 42 27 46 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 65 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 33 56 32 61 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 39 68 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 63 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 48 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 41 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 47 77 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 44 63 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 47 73 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 43 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 48 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 66 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 41 69 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 43 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 41 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 38 57 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 34 53 28 57 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 35 52 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 58 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 38 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 35 65 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 55 27 60 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 32 60 29 63 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 30 63 27 68 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 29 58 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 36 60 35 62 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 37 66 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 38 65 34 68 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 68 36 69 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 37 62 37 64 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST FRIDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM MST FRIDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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