587
FXUS64 KEPZ 182350
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
550 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME DECENT NORTH WINDS
BEHIND IT. CONTINUED PRESSURE RISES JUST EAST OF OUR AREA SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO TURN MORE EAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS
EAST/SOUTHEAST STARTING EARLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH DURING THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS.
THIS SURGE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. ALOFT, A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE
BAJA, WILL MOVE UP TO THE CWA LATER SUNDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING,
THOUGH MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN TUESDAY
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL FLUSH MOISTURE OUT
OF THE CWA AND CLEAR THE SKIES. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES TO
NOCAL TUESDAY, GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY, AND THEN CROSSES THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY. THIS USHERS IN A STRETCH OF DRY, WARM WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY. BREEZY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, INCREASING THURSDAY TO
WEST 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS DIMINISHING SOME FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BUT STILL BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS. FIRE CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY WORSEN THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG ESE
NEAR SURFACE WIND BEHIND THIS MORNING'S FROPA. SURFACE WIND
090-120 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, AND MOUNTAINTOP WIND 30 TO 35 KNOTS
THUS INCLUDED WIND SHEAR IN KELP/KLRU TAFS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY 110-140 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SKIES SKC, THEN SCT-BKN250 AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
EXPECT MORE MOISTURE SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY; MOSTLY SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FROM TUESDAY ON BECOMES MORE TYPICAL SPRING
WEATHER WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS, WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS. WEST WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY TO 15-25 MPH AND
THEN PEAK ON THURSDAY AT 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY-STILL BREEZY THOUGH. FIRE
CONDITIONS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BECOME ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 15-25% SUNDAY/MONDAY DECREASING TO 8-13% TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 20-35% SUNDAY/MONDAY DECREASING TO
10-20% TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD
SUNDAY/MONDAY BECOMING MOSTLY EXCELLENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 73 51 80 / 0 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 44 67 43 75 / 0 30 30 30
LAS CRUCES 44 70 46 77 / 0 20 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 40 74 45 78 / 0 10 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 28 54 33 59 / 0 10 30 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 73 51 76 / 0 10 20 30
SILVER CITY 42 67 44 73 / 0 10 10 20
DEMING 46 73 46 80 / 0 20 10 10
LORDSBURG 48 72 47 80 / 0 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 72 53 80 / 0 20 20 10
DELL CITY 42 69 44 77 / 0 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 48 75 49 83 / 0 30 30 30
LOMA LINDA 43 65 45 73 / 0 20 30 20
FABENS 50 73 50 82 / 0 30 20 20
SANTA TERESA 48 70 48 78 / 0 20 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 48 72 50 79 / 0 20 30 20
JORNADA RANGE 41 72 43 78 / 0 20 20 20
HATCH 42 75 45 81 / 0 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 50 74 49 82 / 0 20 10 10
OROGRANDE 44 70 45 77 / 0 20 30 20
MAYHILL 30 62 37 68 / 0 10 30 30
MESCALERO 32 65 36 68 / 0 0 30 40
TIMBERON 33 60 36 65 / 0 10 30 30
WINSTON 32 65 38 69 / 0 10 20 40
HILLSBORO 42 70 46 76 / 0 10 20 20
SPACEPORT 38 72 44 77 / 0 10 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 38 69 38 73 / 0 10 20 30
HURLEY 40 69 41 75 / 0 10 10 10
CLIFF 43 75 42 80 / 0 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 42 73 39 77 / 0 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 41 68 44 74 / 0 20 20 20
ANIMAS 48 73 46 81 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 47 71 44 79 / 0 20 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 73 45 80 / 0 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 48 70 46 76 / 0 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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