479
FXUS64 KEPZ 201056
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
456 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 445 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY, WITH MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
- DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AREA WIDE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK,
MOSTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
BROAD, ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS FIXED ACROSS BAJA,
LEADING TO A STAGNANT SURFACE HIGH OVER ARIZONA. PREVAILING
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SCOUR OUT MOISTURE
ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO FALL TO 0.6-0.8". THIS WILL BRING
RAIN CHANCES TO AN END AREA WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
MAIN HEADLINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE HEAT.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, BECOMING FIXED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY-TUESDAY.
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR SURPASS 100 DEGREES STARTING
SATURDAY AND LOOK TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY- WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
REACHING 104-108 DEGREES. WHILE THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE,
IT'S STILL IMPACTFUL HEAT. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR EL
PASO, AND PERHAPS MOST OF THE I-10/I-25 CORRIDORS.
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MIDWEEK WILL FLATTEN
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND WEAKEN IT SOMEWHAT AFTER NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO "COOL" A FEW DEGREES, THOUGH
STILL LIKELY ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR EL PASO AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. SLIGHT INCREASES IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY, THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
(BLACK RANGE, SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS), WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
REMAINING DRY AND HOT INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF JUNE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
GUSTINESS DEVELOPS FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON UP TO 20KTS,
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE AOB 10KTS. OTHER THAN FEW CU IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY SKC EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME BREEZINESS THIS WEEKEND. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME MOISTURE LINGERS, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ZERO TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITY, THEN LIGHTER WINDS. FUELS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR ERCS. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES MAY RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS.
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MON-WED.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-20% TODAY, THEN 5-15% THROUGH TUE.
VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 100 68 102 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 100 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 101 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 102 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 92 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 68 102 67 105 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 98 64 100 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 102 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 104 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 105 73 107 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 96 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 104 72 106 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 101 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 101 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 67 104 66 106 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 102 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 101 67 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 59 90 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 58 89 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 56 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 58 94 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 65 102 64 102 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 93 55 97 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 95 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 98 60 101 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 59 94 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 95 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 99 64 101 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 99 64 100 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 93 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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