360
FXUS64 KEPZ 251138
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
EL PASO AND THE LOWER VALLEY.
- CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE AREA
MOUNTAINS BEING FAVORED WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE
DESERT LOWLANDS.
- ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVERHEAD TODAY WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP SHAVE OFF A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FROM HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER HOT DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT TOMORROW
FOR SOUTHERN DONA ANA, EL PASO AND THE LOWER VALLEY. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PUSHES IN FOR THURSDAY WITH PWS NEARING AN 1", WHICH WOULD
BE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN BEING
FAVORED AND ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
LOWLANDS. MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY,
MAYBE SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN.
A CONTINUED GRADUAL "COOLING" TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND REDEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF STATES BY SATURDAY BEFORE EXPANDING OVER THE SE US. A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACNW THIS WEEKEND WILL SHOVE OUT MOISTURE
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA, LEAVING THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE, AND ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WEST TX. SIMILAR SET UP
FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. IF A TRIGGER FOR STORMS IS PRESENT, THEN WE
COULD GET THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICALLY THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND THE
GILA REGION/BLACK RANGE WILL BEGIN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE DAY,
AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL KICK OFF STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS...
BUT IF THE MOUNTAINS CAN'T PRODUCE STORMS, THEN STORMS IN THIS
AREA BECOMES UNLIKELY (UNLESS THERE'S SOME OTHER TRIGGER
AVAILABLE). IN ADDITION, THIS WEEKEND DOES LOOK A BIT BREEZIER
THAN WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY. WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE
PROBABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS, BUT NOT NEARING ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA. THIS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THOUGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BENEATH VARIABLE SKIES WITH
BASES AS LOW AS 100. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT WILL
BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS WITH
BLDU THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, OCCURRENCE, AND SEVERITY OF
IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
...ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND...
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT
WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. THIS MEANS ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL HAVE A RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING STARTS AND
GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH A LITTLER LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AS WELL, WHICH MEANS MIN RH VALUES WILL
BE SIMILAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BUT
WITH LESSER COVERAGE AND MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THIS WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO,
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH FOR
SATURDAY, INCREASING A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUE BELOW 15%, AND RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO SCANT THE NEXT TO DAYS TO ALLOW FOR MUCH, IF
ANY, FUEL RECOVERY. THUS, WE WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA
FOR SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE WE
WILL GET THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR SATURDAY AND MODERATE FOR
SUNDAY. I WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DECIDE ON WHETHER WE JOIN OUR
NEIGHBORS IN ARIZONA ON ISSUING FIRE PRODUCTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 103 77 102 / 20 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 98 68 97 / 10 30 40 10
LAS CRUCES 68 100 69 99 / 20 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 100 71 100 / 20 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 78 55 77 / 20 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 100 70 99 / 30 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 63 93 64 91 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 67 102 69 101 / 20 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 66 99 68 98 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 101 76 100 / 20 10 10 0
DELL CITY 70 102 70 101 / 20 20 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 104 74 103 / 20 30 40 0
LOMA LINDA 69 95 69 94 / 20 10 10 0
FABENS 73 104 74 102 / 20 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 71 100 72 99 / 20 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 101 76 100 / 20 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 100 69 100 / 20 10 0 0
HATCH 68 103 70 102 / 20 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 102 74 101 / 30 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 68 99 69 99 / 10 10 10 0
MAYHILL 59 89 60 89 / 10 20 0 0
MESCALERO 57 88 59 88 / 20 10 0 0
TIMBERON 56 86 56 85 / 10 10 0 0
WINSTON 58 91 59 90 / 20 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 98 67 96 / 20 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 100 66 99 / 30 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 93 59 91 / 10 10 0 0
HURLEY 63 96 65 95 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 64 99 64 97 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 62 94 63 93 / 30 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 95 66 94 / 20 10 0 0
ANIMAS 66 99 68 99 / 20 10 0 0
HACHITA 65 99 67 98 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 98 68 97 / 30 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 64 93 65 92 / 30 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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