169
FXUS64 KEPZ 300408
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1008 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1002 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
- A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GIVES US COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY EAST
WINDS LATE THIS WEEK.
- NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WELL OFF THE SOCAL COAST WITH ONLY A
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. AHEAD OF IT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET
EXTENDS FROM THE BAJA ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS WEST TO EAST JUST
SOUTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET, THOUGH OVER NEW MEXICO IT IS STILL
MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
ALL MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN MOVING THE LOW OVER THE MEXICAN SONORAN
DESERT BY THURSDAY EVENING, AND THEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOISTEN DOWN FROM THE TOP OVER THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS, WITH VIRGA OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY VERY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INTO THE EVENING, THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES CLOSE
ENOUGH TO START ADDING SOME DYNAMICS, BOTH WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, AND THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE AREA WELL AFTER DARK
THURSDAY. THUS EXPECT MORE ACCUMULATING TYPE RAIN TO START ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW ARE MOSTLY OVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AT
THE SURFACE A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL DROP DOWN BEHIND THIS
EXITING LOW, AIDED BY A RAPIDLY MOVING SMALL CANADIAN LOW DROPPING
TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS COULD KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS, MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS LAST FEATURE IS UNSEASONABLY COOL AND COULD
EVEN MEAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SACS ABOVE 10000 FT (SIERRA
BLANCA). THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT COULD ALSO ADD SOME BREEZY WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WEST SLOPES OF TERRAIN.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A
STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET
MIGRATES TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER IN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW. GFS TAKES LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY FOR A WINDY DAY. ECMWF ALSO BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BUT QUICKLY DROPS A SECONDARY LOW DOWN TO THE
MEXICAN CHIHUAHUAN DESERT WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD MEAN SOME SHOWERS
FOR THE AREA. HOPEFULLY THE MODELS CONVERGE OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT-BKN150 LAYERS
TO 300; AFT 18Z..INCREASING SCT-BKN080 OVC150. ISOLD BKN060
SHRA WEST OF THE RG VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WEST/NORTHWEST AOB 7
KNOTS. WINDS INCREASING AFTER 18Z TO WEST 10-15G25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO EASE STARTING ON THURSDAY,
AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WETTING RAINFALL TO MOST OF SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS, AND
ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY, WITH
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE GILA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 79 55 67 / 10 20 80 60
SIERRA BLANCA 62 76 50 63 / 10 20 90 70
LAS CRUCES 55 76 50 67 / 10 20 80 60
ALAMOGORDO 56 78 50 64 / 10 20 80 80
CLOUDCROFT 42 55 34 42 / 10 20 90 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 79 53 67 / 0 10 50 60
SILVER CITY 48 70 45 67 / 0 10 50 50
DEMING 52 78 50 74 / 10 20 70 60
LORDSBURG 52 74 48 75 / 0 20 60 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 77 56 67 / 10 20 80 60
DELL CITY 62 79 51 62 / 10 20 90 80
FORT HANCOCK 67 84 55 72 / 10 20 80 70
LOMA LINDA 60 72 49 59 / 10 30 90 70
FABENS 66 81 55 70 / 10 20 80 60
SANTA TERESA 62 77 53 67 / 10 20 80 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 78 54 66 / 10 20 80 70
JORNADA RANGE 53 77 49 67 / 10 20 70 70
HATCH 57 80 49 73 / 10 10 60 70
COLUMBUS 60 79 53 75 / 10 30 80 40
OROGRANDE 56 77 50 62 / 10 20 80 80
MAYHILL 47 68 37 50 / 0 20 90 90
MESCALERO 45 65 37 52 / 0 20 90 90
TIMBERON 46 63 37 49 / 10 20 90 90
WINSTON 43 71 41 62 / 0 10 40 60
HILLSBORO 55 76 49 67 / 0 10 50 70
SPACEPORT 50 77 48 69 / 10 10 60 60
LAKE ROBERTS 43 71 42 69 / 0 10 50 60
HURLEY 47 72 44 69 / 0 20 60 50
CLIFF 43 77 46 76 / 0 10 40 40
MULE CREEK 42 74 43 74 / 0 10 40 30
FAYWOOD 50 72 47 67 / 0 20 60 60
ANIMAS 54 75 49 75 / 10 30 70 20
HACHITA 53 74 48 74 / 10 30 80 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 74 48 74 / 10 40 90 20
CLOVERDALE 54 67 46 70 / 10 40 80 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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