640
FXUS64 KEPZ 282338
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, RUNNING
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 107 EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
TODAY WILL SEE THE BEST (WORST?) OF BOTH WORLDS AS VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES EXPAND ACROSS THE RGV/EASTWARD AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SETS UP OUT WEST. THE UPPER HIGH SITS OVER E NM TODAY, ALLOWING
LOWLAND TEMPS TO CLIMB TO ABOUT 105 AND WARRANTING HEAT
ADVISORIES. MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH, BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES OUT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTIONS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PWS
AROUND 1.2" WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. HREF MAX 6-HR RAINFALL SHOWS UP TO 2" OF RAIN WITH
CONSISTENT BULLS-EYES IN THE NM BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT
LOWER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST IN THE GILA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH. WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM DEMING EASTWARD.
THE UPPER HIGH DOESN'T MOVE MUCH THROUGH THU, FLATTENING OUT A
BIT DUE TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE SOMEWHAT OUT WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
LOWER STORM CHANCES THAN TODAY. TEMPS STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON FRI
AS THE HIGH STRETCHES WEST.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH PARKS ITSELF OVER AZ, ALLOWING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTH. SCATTERED
MTN STORMS ARE MODELED EACH AFTERNOON, DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS. GUSTY OUTFLOWS
AND BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLANDS. BETTER MOISTURE
AND STORM CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS TOWARDS 100 FOR THE
LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED
TS ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS EVENING, WITH VCTS INCLUDED AT KTCS FOR
A FEW HOURS. SKIES GENERALLY FEW-SCT110 FOR KELP/KLRU WITH NO RISK
OF STORMS. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS 280-360 AT 5-10 KNOTS ACROSS S
NM, WITH SKIES FEW-SCT150. DRIER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD
TO LOWER STORM COVERAGE OVER MTNS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
KELP. SE SURFACE WINDS 100-150 AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS MID-AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. MOST AREAS
REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH LIGHT S-SE WINDS AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
STORM CHANCES DECREASE WED/THU TO THE WEST AS TEMPS REMAIN HOT.
AREA MTNS WILL SEE BETTER STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS. TEMPS COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 12-30% THROUGH FRI. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO
VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 104 76 104 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 98 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 71 102 71 102 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 73 102 72 104 / 10 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 56 78 54 79 / 10 10 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 100 73 102 / 20 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 64 94 66 95 / 20 20 10 30
DEMING 71 102 72 103 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 70 100 72 101 / 20 0 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 103 77 104 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 102 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 76 105 75 107 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 76 103 75 104 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 75 102 74 102 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 103 76 103 / 10 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 74 103 73 102 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 73 104 73 105 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 103 75 104 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 72 101 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 89 59 90 / 10 0 0 10
MESCALERO 60 91 59 91 / 10 10 10 20
TIMBERON 58 89 57 90 / 10 0 10 10
WINSTON 63 92 63 93 / 20 10 20 30
HILLSBORO 71 99 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 71 101 70 101 / 10 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 93 60 95 / 20 30 20 60
HURLEY 65 97 67 98 / 10 20 10 20
CLIFF 65 101 68 101 / 10 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 63 96 66 97 / 20 10 20 10
FAYWOOD 68 97 69 97 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 69 100 72 103 / 40 10 20 10
HACHITA 69 99 71 102 / 30 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 99 70 100 / 30 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 65 93 66 95 / 30 30 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHERN
GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA
VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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