829
FXUS64 KEPZ 261116
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
516 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EAST OF EL PASO
THIS EVENING, MOSTLY OVER HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- TYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ANOTHER NIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THAT HAS LEAD TO MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
FINALLY MOVING TO THE EAST, BUT NOT BEFORE WE COULD SEE ONE MORE
ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN HUDSPETH COUNTY. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL STAY RAIN FREE ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON A ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW ALOFT. WE LOOK TO STAY DRY
BOTH DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(PW'S) WILL DROP BELOW 0.5 FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. BUT THEN ON THURSDAY, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND WE WILL SEE PW'S JUMP TO
AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90 BY THURSDAY. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GIVE US A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON FRIDAY THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THAT WILL GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PW'S WE COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN MAKERS WHICH CAN LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RUN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES. RIGHT NOW NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
VMC TODAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AOB 5 KNOTS. SKIES FEW-
SCT070, SCT-BKN250. ISOLATED TS ACROSS SE NM AND W TX THIS
EVENING, BETWEEN 00-06Z. NO DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR KELP OR
NM SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
DRY CONDITIONS FOR GILA NF, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS LINCOLN NF THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TODAY,
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 MPH. A FEW HOURS OF FAIR VENT RATES THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE POOR. A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRY
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE EXISTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORESTED AREAS. ERCS ARE VERY LOW
AT THE MOMENT, SO NO FIRE DANGER EXPECTED INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 75 56 78 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 73 51 77 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 52 73 50 76 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 72 51 75 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 53 37 56 / 20 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 73 47 75 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 70 45 71 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 52 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 75 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 74 58 77 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 73 52 77 / 30 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 81 58 85 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 68 52 72 / 30 0 0 0
FABENS 56 77 56 81 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 74 54 76 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 75 56 78 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 73 51 76 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 52 78 51 80 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 78 53 80 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 71 50 75 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 66 42 70 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 41 63 42 67 / 20 10 0 0
TIMBERON 40 61 40 64 / 30 20 0 0
WINSTON 40 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 74 47 76 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 49 72 48 75 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 70 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 49 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 52 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 73 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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