062
FXUS64 KEPZ 221759
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1159 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MEDIUM TO HIGHER-END FLOODING
IMPACTS IS INCREASING, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO,
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- THIS IS ALL DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FORM
THE PACIFIC.
- THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BUT WILL BECOME MORE LOCALIZED. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- QUIETER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE ENTIRE REGION IS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH FROM 12:00 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 7:00 PM MDT WEDNESDAY EVENING. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME.
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL FACILITATE A TIGHT PLUME OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO OUR REGION
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO LAST
NIGHT WILL ASSIST IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE. ALL OF
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST CRITICAL PERIOD FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
AS IT STANDS, ALL MODELS ARE FAVORING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING TO BE CENTRALIZED IN NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY AND WESTERN SIERRA COUNTY, NM (ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK
RANGE). THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL SCENARIO WOULD SEE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITHIN THE BROADER 2-3 INCH AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL INTO
BASINS THAT FEED IN SOUTH OF CABALLO DAM (EVERYTHING SOUTH OF
PERCHA CREEK), WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE
RIO GRANDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD ON THURSDAY, THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY OUT WEST. FLOODING WILL BE MORE OF A RISK
OUT EAST IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE TEXAS RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. AS THURSDAY TURNS TO FRIDAY, RAIN WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND RENDERS
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WIDELY SCATTERED.
QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER ROCKIES, BUT AN ACTIVE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND NEW
WEST COAST TROUGH COULD BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH RAIN THE REGION WILL
GET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE 24-HOUR
TAF OBSERVATION PERIOD. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH KELP MAY HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE
OF SEEING CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE OTHER THREE TAF SITES.
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S TODAY
BEFORE RISING TO THE 60S-80S WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK RANGE. 20FT
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH TODAY. VENTILATION
RATES WILL BE POOR THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 75 64 79 / 80 90 60 60
SIERRA BLANCA 61 76 59 79 / 40 70 50 70
LAS CRUCES 61 71 59 75 / 100 90 70 60
ALAMOGORDO 62 75 59 77 / 80 90 80 80
CLOUDCROFT 47 54 46 57 / 90 90 90 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 68 59 73 / 100 100 70 70
SILVER CITY 56 66 54 72 / 100 90 50 50
DEMING 61 73 59 77 / 90 90 50 50
LORDSBURG 61 72 59 77 / 90 80 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 75 63 78 / 80 90 70 60
DELL CITY 65 78 62 80 / 50 90 70 80
FORT HANCOCK 68 83 65 86 / 50 80 50 70
LOMA LINDA 60 71 58 73 / 60 90 50 70
FABENS 66 78 64 82 / 60 90 50 60
SANTA TERESA 63 73 61 77 / 90 90 70 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 73 62 77 / 100 90 70 70
JORNADA RANGE 62 71 59 75 / 100 90 70 70
HATCH 62 73 61 77 / 100 100 70 70
COLUMBUS 63 76 63 79 / 100 90 50 30
OROGRANDE 63 73 61 75 / 80 90 70 70
MAYHILL 53 64 53 69 / 90 90 90 90
MESCALERO 52 65 51 68 / 90 100 90 90
TIMBERON 50 62 48 65 / 90 90 90 90
WINSTON 54 62 53 68 / 100 100 70 80
HILLSBORO 59 68 57 74 / 100 100 70 70
SPACEPORT 60 69 58 74 / 100 100 70 80
LAKE ROBERTS 53 64 52 72 / 100 90 60 60
HURLEY 57 68 55 73 / 100 90 50 50
CLIFF 60 72 58 80 / 100 90 60 40
MULE CREEK 57 68 55 76 / 90 90 60 40
FAYWOOD 59 67 58 72 / 100 90 60 60
ANIMAS 62 74 60 79 / 80 80 40 10
HACHITA 61 73 59 77 / 90 80 40 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 76 59 79 / 80 80 30 30
CLOVERDALE 58 72 57 77 / 70 80 30 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
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