094
FXUS64 KEPZ 170511
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1011 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 926 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
- WEAK COOL FRONT NOW THROUGH THE AREA WITH FEW SHOWERS ENDING
AND CLOUDS DISSIPATING. COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
- NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW LIKELY
LASTING INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING.
- FURTHER COOLING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
PACIFIC SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SYSTEM DID CREATE QUITE A
BIT OF CU THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY
WEST OF DEMING-T OR C. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE CLEARING OVERNIGHT
AND BREEZY WEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEATHER QUIET FOR MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NOCAL COAST WILL DROP DOWN TO
SOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AND
SHOW SYSTEM ABLE TO SCOOP UP A BIT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF THE
RG VALLEY, AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVER MOST OF AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS/NAM12 SHOW PWS INCREASING TO .60-.80
INCHES AND VERY MODEST CAPE AND LI VALUES. THUS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POP UP WITH SOME LOCAL MODERATE RAINFALL.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
COMBINED WITH UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE, SHOULD HELP END THE SHOWERS
AND CLEAR THE SKIES. BREEZY WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, IN THE 15-25 GUST 35 MPH RANGE. SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
POSSIBLE, REMAINING WELL ABOVE 9000 FT WEDNESDAY, BUT FALLING TO
AS LOW AS 7000 FT THURSDAY AS PRECIP IS ENDING.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SECOND PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE
GENERAL AREA TOWARD THE WEEKEND, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE BETWEEN THE TWO. GFS CLOSES THE TROUGH OFF INTO LOW AND
DROPS IT DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND EVENTUALLY OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS FOR THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PACIFIC FEATURE AS AN
OPEN TROUGH, REACHING THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. EITHER SOLUTION SHOULD
RETURN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR
CONFIDENCE'S SAKE, LETS HOPE THE MODELS CONVERGE CLOSER ON A
SOLUTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT090 SCT250 THROUGH ABOUT
09Z, THEN MOSTLY SKC. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-13G23 KNOTS TIL
AROUND 08Z, THEN BECOMING WEST 7-10 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASING AGAIN
AFTER 18Z TO WEST 12-17G25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE POOR AS
THE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES REGION DURING THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF GRANT/SIERRA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NMZ110. MIN RH VALUES WILL
BE NO CONCERN, ABOVE 25 PERCENT AREAWIDE WITH VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT SMOKE VENTILATION RATES.
PACIFIC COLDS FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH WINDS BECOME WEST/NORTHWESTERLY, REMAIN BREEZY AT 10-20 MPH.
MIN RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO ME OF NO CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. VENT RATES ON MONDAY WILL BE
GOOD. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TOURS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 50 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 44 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 43 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 38 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 32 49 35 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 43 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 59 39 60 41 / 20 10 0 0
DEMING 70 42 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 42 66 46 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 51 70 56 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 72 39 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 47 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 64 46 66 50 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 74 46 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 68 46 69 52 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 49 69 53 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 39 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 71 40 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 46 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 39 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 63 36 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 61 35 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 58 34 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 63 33 59 36 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 68 42 66 44 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 35 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 33 59 38 / 30 10 0 0
HURLEY 63 39 62 41 / 20 10 0 0
CLIFF 66 37 66 39 / 30 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 61 32 61 38 / 50 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 63 42 61 44 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 68 44 68 47 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 68 42 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 42 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 43 61 46 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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