761
FXUS64 KEPZ 062330
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL HAVE A DRYING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES COMMON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
UPPER HIGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN NV TO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM WASHINGTON AND OREGON HAS BEEN
REACHING OUR AREA THE LAST COUPLE DAYS BRINGING HAZY SKIES. THIS
MORNINGS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING AWAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT, THIS MAY HINDER
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-RES CAMS MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING
AN UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON STARTING IN THE AREA
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON WITH OUTFLOWS TRIGGERING OFF MORE STORMS IN
THE LOWLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BLOWING
DUST, AND SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE. UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY
TO THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
UPPER HIGH STAYS PUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER AIR FROM THE GREAT PLAINS PUSHING IN, LIMITING STORM CHANCES
TO JUST THE AREA MOUNTAINS. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER
HIGH LOOKS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD CENTERING OVER AZ/NM BUT MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THIS HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DAILY AFTERNOON
STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
TSRA / SHRA WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
TORRENTIAL RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH IT. AFTER 3Z, PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER BEGINS TO DECREASE
UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND STORMS BUT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OTHERWISE. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLE WITH BASES AS
LOW AS 080, LOWER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
GENERALLY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND
ISOLATED LOWLAND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN OVER THE WEEKEND LIMITING STORM CHANCES TO JUST THE AREA
MOUNTAINS BOTH OF THOSE DAYS. AREA MOUNTAIN AND LOCATIONS BORDERING
AZ LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK. MIN RHS TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL AT 17-21% AND MOUNTAIN RHS OF 25-40%. NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL RHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
VALUES OF 14-22%. MOUNTAIN RHS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE 25-35%.
HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EACH AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 101 75 100 / 30 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 97 67 95 / 10 20 20 0
LAS CRUCES 69 98 69 98 / 50 20 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 98 68 97 / 30 30 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 52 76 52 75 / 20 40 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 99 70 98 / 30 30 30 0
SILVER CITY 64 93 64 91 / 30 40 20 20
DEMING 69 100 70 99 / 40 20 30 0
LORDSBURG 70 98 70 98 / 30 30 30 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 100 76 100 / 30 20 20 0
DELL CITY 72 100 71 99 / 10 20 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 76 104 75 102 / 10 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 69 94 69 93 / 20 20 20 0
FABENS 75 102 75 100 / 20 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 72 99 73 99 / 40 20 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 100 74 98 / 40 30 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 99 70 98 / 40 30 30 0
HATCH 69 102 70 101 / 40 20 30 0
COLUMBUS 73 99 73 99 / 50 30 40 0
OROGRANDE 69 98 69 97 / 20 20 20 0
MAYHILL 58 87 57 86 / 20 20 20 10
MESCALERO 57 87 56 86 / 20 40 20 20
TIMBERON 56 85 55 84 / 20 30 20 20
WINSTON 60 91 60 90 / 20 30 40 10
HILLSBORO 66 98 67 96 / 30 30 40 0
SPACEPORT 68 99 67 97 / 30 30 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 92 58 91 / 20 50 20 60
HURLEY 64 95 65 94 / 30 30 30 10
CLIFF 66 99 65 97 / 20 50 20 40
MULE CREEK 64 95 64 93 / 20 40 30 30
FAYWOOD 66 95 67 93 / 30 30 30 0
ANIMAS 70 98 69 98 / 50 30 30 0
HACHITA 68 97 69 97 / 50 20 30 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 96 69 96 / 60 30 40 0
CLOVERDALE 65 92 65 92 / 60 30 30 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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