725
FXUS64 KEPZ 250909
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
309 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 308 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 100 TO 103
RANGE AFTER TODAY, TECHNICALLY A MINOR COOL-DOWN. TRIPLE DIGITS
LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
- SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
STILL MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST. LOW-END MONSOON
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS
IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO SLOSH ABOUT THE LOWLANDS THIS
EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP. SOME
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS
BEFORE THE CONVECTION FIZZLES OUT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE LEVEL
LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND (PWS AROUND 1.25" AT KELP)
WITH STORM CHANCES FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS. WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
ERO FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH THE HREF
SHOWING 1-2" 24-HR MAX RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE SACS AND GILA.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE SEEN IN AREA MTNS AND
OUT WEST TOMORROW PM WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS
AND SOME BLOWING DUST BEING THE MAIN THREATS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR
WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OUT WEST.
TO BEGIN THE NEW WORKWEEK, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST,
LOWERING STORM CHANCES INTO MIDWEEK. THE MTNS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE
OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, MORE SO THE GILA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT
HIGHER, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLANDS. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE HEAT WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOONAL HIGH SITS
JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 100-105F RANGE MOST DAYS
WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER RGV, LIKE WE SAW TODAY.
THERE'S MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT
TEMPS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. A LITTLE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LOW FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE. MIN RHS IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL BE
13-18% TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE JUST BARELY OUT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
TO 18-22% OVER THE WEEKEND. MOUNTAIN RHS WILL BE 30-50%. SCATTERED
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STAY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 102 79 103 / 0 10 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 97 70 99 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 73 100 72 101 / 10 10 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 99 75 102 / 10 20 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 55 75 56 78 / 20 50 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 98 74 100 / 40 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 67 92 65 91 / 40 50 30 40
DEMING 73 101 72 101 / 20 20 30 10
LORDSBURG 73 98 71 97 / 30 20 50 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 81 101 79 102 / 0 10 20 0
DELL CITY 73 100 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 104 78 105 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 72 95 71 96 / 0 30 10 0
FABENS 78 103 77 104 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 77 100 76 101 / 0 10 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 100 79 102 / 10 20 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 75 99 75 102 / 20 20 10 0
HATCH 74 102 74 104 / 30 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 77 102 76 102 / 10 10 30 10
OROGRANDE 74 99 73 101 / 10 20 10 0
MAYHILL 61 87 60 90 / 10 40 10 20
MESCALERO 60 87 60 90 / 20 50 10 10
TIMBERON 58 84 58 89 / 10 50 10 10
WINSTON 63 90 63 91 / 60 60 10 20
HILLSBORO 71 96 70 98 / 50 30 10 10
SPACEPORT 72 99 71 101 / 30 10 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 92 60 93 / 50 60 20 50
HURLEY 68 95 67 95 / 40 40 30 30
CLIFF 68 98 67 97 / 50 40 30 40
MULE CREEK 66 94 65 93 / 40 40 30 40
FAYWOOD 69 95 68 95 / 40 40 20 20
ANIMAS 73 98 71 97 / 30 30 60 10
HACHITA 72 99 70 97 / 10 30 60 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 99 70 96 / 10 30 50 20
CLOVERDALE 67 92 65 90 / 20 50 60 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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