287
FXUS64 KEPZ 092347
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
547 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
- SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND BLOWING DUST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
- LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REMAINING HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 98-102; EXCEPT HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM 100 TO
104.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR
STRONGER STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS MAINTAINING A STANDARD
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED MAINLY
MOUNTAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY.
MOISTURE NEEDED TO FUEL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION
REMAINS LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND AN
INCH OVER THE LOWLANDS, WHICH IS THE MINIMAL AMOUNT NEEDED TO
GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DAY TIME
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
NEAR AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT OUTSIDE.
WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SITTING MOSTLY AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THESE STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AT
AROUND 8000 FEET AGL, PRODUCING LIGHT SPOTTY RAINFALL OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE WILL SET UP A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
BLOWING DUST FROM STORMS. PORTIONS OF THE SW NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL
WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPACTED BY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MOVING SOUTH
FROM THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN GILA
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM WIND GUSTS OVER THE LORDSBURG PLAYS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY REPEAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
BASED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SPOTTY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST HABOOB.
BY SUNDAY THE CENTER OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE
DRIFTED NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SETTING UP A DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL ALLOW GREATER
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL RISE TO ROUGHLY 1.3 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GREATER NUMBER OF
LONGER LIVED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR STORM CORES. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO RESULT FROM THIS PATTERN SHIFT.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND LATER NEXT WEEK AND
TRANSPORT A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION THAT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOWS OUT THERE.
SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS AND GUSTY WINDS FROM OUTFLOWS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AT LEAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
START TO RAMP DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT. QUIET AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
WE REMAIN IN A HOT AND SOMEWHAT DRY PATTERN AS MINIMUM RH VALUES
IN THE LOWLAND DESERTS DROP INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
MPH. ENOUGH MOISTURE BE AROUND FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED
LOWLAND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERNS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. VENT RATES WILL RANGE GOOD TO VERY GOOD. THIS PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT BY SUNDAY, MOISTURE AND RH
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WHILE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DECREASE. THERE WILL BE INCREASED COVERAGE OF WETTING RAINS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 104 77 103 / 10 10 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 69 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 70 102 69 101 / 10 10 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 74 101 73 100 / 10 20 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 55 78 54 77 / 20 50 10 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 103 74 101 / 10 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 65 95 65 94 / 20 60 20 40
DEMING 69 104 69 103 / 10 20 30 10
LORDSBURG 68 100 68 99 / 20 20 40 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 103 76 102 / 10 10 20 10
DELL CITY 71 102 71 100 / 10 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 104 75 105 / 0 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 70 96 69 95 / 10 10 20 10
FABENS 75 104 74 104 / 10 10 20 10
SANTA TERESA 73 102 72 101 / 10 10 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 103 77 102 / 10 10 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 73 103 72 101 / 10 10 20 10
HATCH 72 106 72 104 / 10 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 75 104 74 103 / 10 20 30 10
OROGRANDE 71 101 72 100 / 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 59 90 59 87 / 10 50 10 40
MESCALERO 59 90 58 89 / 20 40 10 60
TIMBERON 56 87 56 86 / 10 40 10 40
WINSTON 61 94 62 93 / 10 40 10 20
HILLSBORO 70 100 71 99 / 10 20 20 10
SPACEPORT 69 102 69 101 / 10 10 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 59 96 59 96 / 20 60 20 60
HURLEY 65 98 65 98 / 20 60 20 20
CLIFF 65 101 66 101 / 20 40 20 40
MULE CREEK 63 97 63 97 / 20 40 20 30
FAYWOOD 66 97 66 97 / 10 40 20 10
ANIMAS 69 100 68 99 / 40 20 50 20
HACHITA 68 100 67 99 / 20 20 50 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 98 67 98 / 40 40 60 20
CLOVERDALE 64 91 63 91 / 60 30 60 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWLANDS
OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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