234
FXUS64 KEPZ 071134
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
534 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
- STORM CHANCES PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS
WITH LESSER ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT SUN SEP 6 2026
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE SHIFTING AND BROADENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US TUESDAY
AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. PWS STAY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH VALUES
GENERALLY 1.2" TO 1.3". STORM CHANCES CONTINUE EACH OF THOSE DAYS
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER HIGH REBUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. STILL CAN EXPECT THE NORMAL MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY BUT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PW VALUES DROP TO 0.9"-
1.0". CAN EXPECT A DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY DUE TO THIS. BOTH THE EC
AND GFS ARE SHOWING A PASSING UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER IF THIS DOES OCCUR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH LIMITED AREA THUNDERSTORMS. IF A
STORM DOES FORM, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREA
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. AWAY FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS, THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL SEE GENERALLY UNLIMITED
CEILINGS THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GIVE US A FEW HOURS OF MID OR HIGH
CEILINGS; SCT-BKN120-250. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. WE WILL HAVE SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
WINDS THIS WEEK WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS, WHILE MIN
RH'S WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 97 75 97 / 10 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 92 68 93 / 10 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 69 96 70 95 / 10 20 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 68 95 69 94 / 10 30 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 50 71 50 71 / 10 40 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 94 72 94 / 30 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 63 88 64 87 / 50 30 20 50
DEMING 69 96 70 96 / 20 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 69 95 70 94 / 30 20 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 97 77 97 / 10 20 10 0
DELL CITY 70 97 71 97 / 10 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 74 100 75 100 / 10 20 10 10
LOMA LINDA 68 90 69 90 / 10 20 10 10
FABENS 73 98 73 98 / 10 20 10 0
SANTA TERESA 72 95 72 95 / 10 20 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 96 75 96 / 10 20 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 70 95 71 95 / 10 20 20 10
HATCH 70 98 72 98 / 10 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 72 97 74 97 / 10 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 69 95 70 94 / 10 20 10 10
MAYHILL 55 84 56 84 / 10 30 10 40
MESCALERO 54 83 55 83 / 10 40 20 60
TIMBERON 54 81 54 81 / 10 40 10 50
WINSTON 59 85 60 86 / 50 30 10 40
HILLSBORO 68 92 70 93 / 40 30 10 20
SPACEPORT 68 95 70 95 / 10 20 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 57 86 57 86 / 50 50 20 70
HURLEY 64 91 65 90 / 40 20 10 40
CLIFF 66 95 66 94 / 40 40 30 50
MULE CREEK 64 91 64 90 / 40 40 40 50
FAYWOOD 66 89 67 89 / 30 20 10 30
ANIMAS 69 95 69 95 / 40 30 30 10
HACHITA 68 94 69 93 / 20 30 30 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 94 68 93 / 30 40 40 0
CLOVERDALE 63 88 64 88 / 40 50 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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