203
FXUS64 KEPZ 031709
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1009 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, AS A COOL FRONT
WITH EAST BREEZES MOVES IN WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING CENTRAL U.S. EXTREMELY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA IN A
WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE. THE INCREASING NORTH FLOW AT THE
ZONE AND BEHIND IT HAVE FLUSHED HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY. TO THE WEST, THE REX-BLOCK
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THE ANCHOR UPPER LOW RESIDES JUST
OFF THE SOCAL COAST, WHILE THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS WEST OF THE BAJA
SPUR. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO FEED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE UP TO THE
DEFORMATION ZONE, BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY.
THE INCREASING NORTH FLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WILL ALLOW A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT TO DROP OVER THE AREA
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING EAST BREEZES TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST SLOPES
OF TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GFS SHOWS EVEN STRONGER
WINDS/GUSTS (POSSIBLY 40 MPH) ADVANCING OUT TO HIDALGO COUNTY LATE
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL PLAYA
DUST AREA FOR BLOWING DUST, AND WENT AHEAD AND PUT SOME BLOWING
DUST IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
REX-BLOCK RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY AS NEXT STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THIS ACTION WILL FORCE
THE ANCHOR LOW UP INTO SOCAL THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY. THUS OUR
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND ADVECTS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS WITH THIS (BUT ALSO MAY A BRIEF SPRINKLE FRIDAY
MORNING?). TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONLY OTHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE SYSTEM MOVING IN LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING OBVIOUS DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA AND MEXICO TO NEAR THE BIG BEND BY LATER MONDAY.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO
MID-DAY MONDAY. GFS SHOWS MUCH STRONGER DIGGING OF LOW AND THUS
SLOWER SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TAP. GFS ESTABLISHES THE
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
RECORD LEVEL PWS. THUS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO
OUR LAST EVENT OF A FEW WEEKS AGO. ANY SNOWFALL WOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW WILL TOW CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR MESSAGING PURPOSES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT250 BECOMING SKC BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL FRONT DROPPING SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TURN WINDS NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT WINDS OF
EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15G25 KNOTS BY END OF THE PERIOD (WED 18Z), AND
A BIT STRONGER BEYOND THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
FIRE ZONES SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOL FRONT MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN BREEZY EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS TURNING BACK TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN MORE MOISTURE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 20-30% THROUGH SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS 15-25%
GILA/BLACK RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY; 25-35% SACRAMENTO MTNS THROUGH
SATURDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD WEDNESDAY, THEN POOR-FAIR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 62 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 59 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 31 60 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 42 20 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 59 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 36 62 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 32 62 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 61 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 31 58 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 36 63 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 53 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 37 62 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 35 59 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 60 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 29 61 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 32 63 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 62 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 29 59 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 26 50 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 25 52 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 29 49 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 25 55 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 35 59 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 28 61 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 24 60 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 32 59 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 24 67 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 20 64 20 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 38 58 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 35 62 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 35 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 61 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 57 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page