356
FXUS64 KEPZ 211139
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
439 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER EIGHTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLIER TODAY,
BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA, IS NOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
WINDS BEGAN DIMINISHING RIGHT AROUND 00Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN OFF THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST. THE LOW AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DID BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SC CLOUDS, MOSTLY
OVER GRANT COUNTY, AND THOSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
ALSO A STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
DISSIPATED/OUT OF AREA NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE WEATHER CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THOUGH NOT EVER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, THE RIDGE DOES
BEGIN FLATTENING OUT BY TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS SUB-TROPICAL AND POLAR
JETS MERGE AND MIGRATE SOUTH. BOTTOM LINE IS WE SHOULD STAY DRY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO BE LONG LASTING.
THE OTHER THING THIS PATTERN ACCOMPLISHES IS TO BRING THE HEAT
BACK TO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY, AND BY THE WED-FRI TIME LINE, WE COULD BE PUSHING RECORD
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW LOWER 80S LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WED-FRI. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE TEMPS RISE TO
THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THIS SAME PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES SKC
TODAY, BECOMING SCT-BKN250 AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
010-050 AT 05-10 KNOTS TODAY. EAST FLOW 040-080 AT 05-10 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH. VENTILATION WILL
BE FAIR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH
15-20%) AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, BUT MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE FORESTS.
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FOR LATE FEBRUARY, 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VERY GOOD
VENTILATION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
AND GOOD AFTERNOON MIXING. FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY, BUT RAPID DRYING MAY OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 38 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 61 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 61 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 30 62 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 21 44 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 62 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 57 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 65 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 37 62 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 65 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 30 61 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 36 67 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 57 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 38 66 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 34 63 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 62 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 29 62 27 68 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 65 28 71 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 36 65 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 31 60 27 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 23 54 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 23 54 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 28 50 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 23 54 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 31 59 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 26 62 26 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 58 24 67 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 29 59 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 29 65 25 71 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 62 21 69 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 58 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 34 64 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 34 63 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 34 65 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 37 61 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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