008
FXUS64 KEPZ 250435
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1035 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL RANGE
UPPER 90S TO 105, WHICH WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORDS.
- VERY LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. STAYING DRY ELSEWHERE.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE HEAT DOME WILL SIT RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY
AND THAT WILL SEND OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. ALMOST ALL OF THE LOCATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL HAVE
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 105
WILL BE POSSIBLE. I HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALSO NOW
INCLUDE MOST OF DONA ANA AND MOST OF LUNA COUNTIES ALONG WITH EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO MAKE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN
ANY RAIN REACHING THE GROUND IS LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST, BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
KEEP US FROM HAVING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW DEGREES TO DROP OFF
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS, BUT THE LOWLANDS
COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AS WELL. FOR THOSE HOPING TO CATCH A
VIEW OF THE LUNAR ECLIPSE ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WE WILL HAVE SOME
CLOUDS BUT WE SHOULD ALSO HAVE PLENTY OF CLEAR SPOTS TO SEE THE
PARTIAL ECLIPSE OF THE MOON.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT A
PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD CONTINUE THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE) AND IT WILL ALLOW
A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LOWLANDS BOTH
AFTERNOONS. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE EXTENDED GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF MONSOON FLOW DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WOULD INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES AND
DECREASE (BY A FEW DEGREES) OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OUR
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THEN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF A FEW HOURS OF OUR LOW END
WIND GUSTS. THE WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. OUR
CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED TONIGHT AND THOSE CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOMORROW, THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD CROP UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MIN RH VALUES ARE TOUCHING 10 PERCENT IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY, AND
MAY DROP ANOTHER POINT OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET. EXPECT SIMILAR VALUES
ON TUESDAY, WITH POOR RECOVERY TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY,
AND OVER A WIDER AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, A
MORE TYPICAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO SET UP, BUT FAVORING
AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 105 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 102 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 70 105 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 102 73 101 / 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 57 79 56 77 / 0 40 10 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 101 74 101 / 0 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 66 96 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 70 104 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 71 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 105 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 104 71 102 / 0 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 106 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 71 99 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 106 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 105 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 72 104 72 102 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 72 105 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 105 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 70 102 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 62 91 61 89 / 0 40 10 40
MESCALERO 60 90 59 89 / 0 30 20 30
TIMBERON 59 89 58 86 / 0 20 10 30
WINSTON 63 92 64 92 / 0 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 70 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 70 102 71 101 / 0 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 60 93 60 93 / 0 20 20 20
HURLEY 66 99 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 69 103 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 66 98 67 99 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 69 98 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 72 103 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 70 102 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 102 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 68 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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