614
FXUS64 KEPZ 170535
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1035 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 843 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
BLOWING DUST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY REDUCING
VISIBILITY ON AREA ROADWAYS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY DRY HUMIDITY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A FEW WINDY DAYS THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK. RIGHT NOW, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK VERY WINDY WITH THE
ADDED POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING DUST CAUSING ISSUES BOTH AFTERNOONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 50 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS
AND HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
REGARDS TO HOW "BAD" THE DUST WILL BECOME WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS
AND STRONG WINDS BUT THE SURFACE DUST CONCENTRATION MODEL IS
SUGGESTING SOME BLOWING DUST FOR THE EL PASO AREA. MORE LOCALIZED
AREAS LIKE IN AND AROUND DEMING, WHITE SANDS, AND THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA MAY BECOME ACTIVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
LOOKING LIKE WE'LL NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT LOWLANDS AND MAYBE SOME HIGH WIND WARNINGS
FOR THE GILA REGION AND THE SACRAMENTO MTNS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION, CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THAT AFTERNOON MEANING OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED AS
ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. HEADING INTO THE
LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK, THURSDAY LOOKS BREEZY GIVING US A
SHORT BREAK BEFORE MORE WIND ARRIVES FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND ACTUALLY
LOOKS QUITE NICE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME AFTER
DARK. WINDS WILL REACH THE 30-35G40-42KT RANGE AT ALL TERMINALS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BLDU IS POSSIBLE BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
FOR KELP TO SEE DUST, AND EVEN KDMN HAS A SHOT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AS TO HOW DENSE THE DUST WILL BECOME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALMOST DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RH'S WILL BE HIGHER ON TUE WITH MIN RH'S RANGING FROM 25% EAST TO
40% WEST AND SOME 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH
GUSTS OVER 45 MPH AREAWIDE. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
RH'S FALLING INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
REMAIN STRONG AND WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A LITTLE
LESS WIND BUT STILL AT LEAST BREEZY THU WITH RH'S IN THE 20-35%
RANGE. FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TUE WITH JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH'S.
OVERALL THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS EVEN WITH RH'S BEING AT OR ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES MOST DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 68 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 47 63 33 65 / 0 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 63 35 64 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 39 25 40 / 10 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 62 33 62 / 0 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 40 49 29 52 / 20 60 0 0
DEMING 48 62 32 65 / 10 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 56 30 60 / 10 40 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 44 70 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 49 77 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 62 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 72 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 65 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 65 40 67 / 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 63 34 65 / 10 10 0 0
HATCH 49 64 34 67 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 65 37 68 / 0 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 64 34 66 / 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 41 54 30 55 / 0 10 0 0
MESCALERO 38 50 27 52 / 0 20 0 0
TIMBERON 39 49 30 50 / 0 10 0 0
WINSTON 36 51 24 52 / 10 30 0 0
HILLSBORO 45 57 32 60 / 10 30 0 0
SPACEPORT 45 61 28 62 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 47 26 50 / 20 60 0 10
HURLEY 42 53 28 57 / 10 40 0 0
CLIFF 41 55 27 58 / 20 70 0 10
MULE CREEK 38 51 28 53 / 30 80 0 10
FAYWOOD 44 53 32 57 / 10 30 0 0
ANIMAS 48 59 32 63 / 10 30 0 0
HACHITA 47 59 32 63 / 10 20 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 60 35 64 / 0 20 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 53 35 57 / 10 40 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST TUESDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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