765
FXUS64 KEPZ 252337
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
537 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND THE LOWER VALLEY
UNTIL 9 PM MDT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF THIS WEEKEND TO
BELOW 100 DEGREES.
- CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE AREA
MOUNTAINS BEING FAVORED WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE
DESERT LOWLANDS.
- ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED OUT WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 103-105 FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
TODAY. MORE MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA TODAY, GIVING THE
REGION A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGH-TERRAINS HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (15-25%). SOME GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE
IN OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH MOISTURE OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW 100 DEGREES,
WITH ANY REMAINING MOISTURE HANGING IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES, LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS (20-30%)
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SOME BREEZY
(10-20 MPH) WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO ELEVATED AND NEAR- CRITICAL FOR THE GILA.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 90S AS WE ENTER JULY, BUT THE SAME
MOISTURE PLUME WILL STAY IN PLACE DUE TO THE TROUGH OUT WEST AND
THE HIGH OUT EAST, RAISING THE PROBABILITY OF STORM CHANCES
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 432 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KELP HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE STORMS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IS KELP BUT POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z.
STILL EXPECTING VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOFT UP DUST IN AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
...ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD MOVES
SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND ALLOWS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEEP IN. MIN RH
VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER TEENS, HOWEVER, AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND MAY
ALSO POSE A RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL
OFF AS THE WEEKEND COMMENCES, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FINALLY
FALLING BELOW 100.
HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST, A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS
INTO OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. LOW RAINFALL
RATES FROM THESE ISOLATED STORMS WILL NOT HELP FUEL RECOVERY MUCH,
AND WINDS UP TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MEANS WE
WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA OUT WEST. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED OUT WEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 103 76 101 / 20 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 98 68 97 / 10 20 30 10
LAS CRUCES 68 100 69 99 / 20 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 100 70 100 / 10 20 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 77 54 77 / 20 20 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 99 69 99 / 30 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 63 93 64 91 / 10 20 20 0
DEMING 67 102 68 101 / 20 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 66 98 68 97 / 10 20 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 101 75 99 / 20 20 20 0
DELL CITY 70 102 70 101 / 10 20 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 104 74 102 / 10 20 40 10
LOMA LINDA 70 95 69 94 / 10 20 10 0
FABENS 74 103 74 102 / 20 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 71 100 72 99 / 20 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 101 76 100 / 20 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 100 69 99 / 20 20 20 0
HATCH 68 103 70 102 / 30 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 73 102 73 101 / 20 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 68 99 69 98 / 20 20 10 0
MAYHILL 59 89 60 89 / 20 20 20 0
MESCALERO 57 88 58 88 / 10 20 10 0
TIMBERON 56 86 56 86 / 10 20 20 0
WINSTON 58 91 59 90 / 30 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 97 67 97 / 20 20 20 0
SPACEPORT 64 99 65 99 / 30 20 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 93 58 91 / 20 20 10 0
HURLEY 64 96 64 95 / 10 20 20 0
CLIFF 64 98 64 97 / 10 20 20 0
MULE CREEK 62 94 63 93 / 20 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 95 66 94 / 20 20 20 0
ANIMAS 67 99 67 98 / 20 20 20 0
HACHITA 66 98 66 98 / 20 20 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 98 68 97 / 30 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 64 92 65 91 / 30 20 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page