509
FXUS64 KEPZ 121748
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1148 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1107 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
- INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FOCUSED OVER MOUNTAIN ZONES.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS. TYPICAL MID-AUGUST
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS REGION WILL IMPROVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MORE TYPICAL OF A MONSOON PATTERN INTO NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND FULLY STRADDLE NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE AN INCH AND WILL PEAK
AT NEARLY 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL SUPPORT LONGER LIVED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY, WHICH IS
TYPICAL OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERNS, BUT SOME AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASES FOR LOWLANDS, SO
WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION, PUSHING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER ARIZONA. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER AN EASTERLY
FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL BRING IN A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS THAT
WILL CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS TO DROP AND WITH PW'S
FALLING BELOW AND INCH. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS SCT-BKN150 BKN250 ACROSS S NM AND W TX.
SURFACE WINDS 210-260 AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS. ISOLATED TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES FEW-SCT080CB. VCTS MENTION INCLUDED AT
KTCS AND KDMN, BUT OMITTED FROM OTHER SITES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECT IMPACTS. KELP WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OUTFLOW OUT OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 00-03Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY 20G30KT AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
SCATTERED (40-60%) THUNDERSTORMS FOR GILA NF, ISOLATED (20-40%)
FOR LINCOLN NF TODAY. WETTER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE MIN RH TO
30-40%. SW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH LEADING TO GOOD VENT RATES.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS.
NEW RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
BUT MOSTLY LIKELY 0.50-1.00" OVER LOCAL FORESTS. PREVAILING SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY SHIFTING TO THE SE OVER THE
WEEKEND. DRIER WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 72 96 / 20 10 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 92 66 92 / 20 20 30 20
LAS CRUCES 67 94 67 94 / 20 10 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 95 68 95 / 20 10 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 52 72 52 72 / 20 10 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 93 68 93 / 20 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 59 84 59 86 / 30 30 20 20
DEMING 66 93 66 95 / 30 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 66 89 65 90 / 30 20 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 95 73 96 / 20 10 20 10
DELL CITY 71 98 71 97 / 10 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 74 99 73 98 / 20 10 30 20
LOMA LINDA 67 89 66 89 / 20 10 10 20
FABENS 72 96 72 96 / 20 10 30 20
SANTA TERESA 71 93 70 94 / 20 10 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 95 71 95 / 20 10 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 94 67 94 / 20 10 20 10
HATCH 68 97 68 97 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 71 93 70 95 / 30 20 20 10
OROGRANDE 68 93 67 93 / 20 10 10 10
MAYHILL 59 85 58 84 / 10 20 10 70
MESCALERO 56 83 56 83 / 20 10 10 50
TIMBERON 54 82 54 82 / 20 10 10 30
WINSTON 56 84 56 84 / 40 60 20 60
HILLSBORO 63 91 62 92 / 20 40 20 20
SPACEPORT 66 94 65 94 / 20 20 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 55 84 55 86 / 40 50 20 50
HURLEY 61 87 60 89 / 30 20 20 10
CLIFF 64 90 63 91 / 60 40 20 10
MULE CREEK 60 85 60 87 / 70 40 20 10
FAYWOOD 63 88 62 89 / 30 20 20 10
ANIMAS 66 88 65 90 / 30 40 20 20
HACHITA 66 89 65 91 / 20 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 88 65 89 / 30 30 20 30
CLOVERDALE 61 81 61 83 / 30 30 30 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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