077
FXUS64 KEPZ 280423
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1023 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1002 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH DRY AIR COULD
LEAD TO WILDFIRES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE US-54 CORRIDOR
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MON,
INDUCING LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS DRY, SW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOME MOISTURE (PWS 1.1-1.2") LINGERS IN FAR
WEST TX FOR SUN, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY IN HUDSPETH. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST
INTO EL PASO LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO
OUTSIDE OF FAR WEST TX SUN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. OTHERWISE,
SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY, STRONGEST TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE FIRE DANGER IS HIGHEST.
THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC BY
MIDWEEK WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
SET UP SOMEWHAT OF A BATTLE BETWEEN MOIST, SE FLOW FROM THE GULF
AND DRY, SW FLOW TO THE WEST. AREAS E OF THE US-54 CORRIDOR WILL
KEEP SLIGHT RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A MODEST
MOISTURE PLUME SETS UP OVERHEAD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR US
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH A WEAKER MOISTURE PLUME. PWS HOLD
STEADY AT OR JUST ABOVE 1" IN FAR WEST TX WITH A POSSIBLE DECREASE
LATER IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FLUSHING OUT MOISTURE TO THE EAST. WINDS REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR WESTERN NM THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEADING INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK TO CREEP UP AREA-WIDE
WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, BUT MAINLY DRY FOR
THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR SLOW COOLDOWN TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK, THEN REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS STAY
SOMEWHAT BREEZY TONIGHT FROM W WITH GUSTINESS PERSISTING FOR KELP
TO 25KTS. MORE CONSISTENT GUSTS TO 25KTS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
FROM W-SW, A BIT STRONGER FOR KTCS AND KDMN. PATCHY BLDU CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NEAR KDMN WITH VIS AS LOW AS 3 SM IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF
KELP BUT SHOULD STAY DRY. DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS S-SE OF
KELP IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 35KTS
AND BLDU LATE IN THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES; FEW-SCT110
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND AS A JET STREAK CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRIER
AIR WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND MIN RH 12 TO 18% CAUSING A FEW
HOURS OF RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR GILA NATIONAL FOREST AND PORTIONS
OF GRANT/SIERRA/CATRON COUNTIES. FUEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK DRYNESS AND ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NEW MEXICO HAS ERCS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WILDFIRE GROWTH WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
CHANCES. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY/TUESDAY (SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 MPH), BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, BUT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO, INCLUDING LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST
DAYS NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 100 76 98 / 0 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 69 95 66 92 / 20 30 40 20
LAS CRUCES 69 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 98 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 75 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 97 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 63 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 69 100 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 10 10
DELL CITY 71 99 70 97 / 10 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 74 101 73 98 / 10 20 30 20
LOMA LINDA 70 92 68 90 / 0 20 20 10
FABENS 74 100 73 99 / 0 20 20 10
SANTA TERESA 72 97 71 96 / 0 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 70 101 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 100 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 97 69 95 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 61 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 58 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 56 84 54 82 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 59 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 95 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 65 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 90 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 65 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 63 96 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 62 91 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 67 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 66 97 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 96 67 94 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 65 90 64 88 / 20 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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