772
FXUS64 KEPZ 061118
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
518 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
- WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS RISING
INTO THE LOWER 90'S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND WINDY
(AND DUSTY) CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY, IS CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST AND IN ITS WAKE WE WILL HAVE A ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP
US DRY AND OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A WEAK
EAST PUSH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE PUSH WILL BE DRY AND FLIP
OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. I WON'T CALL IT A COLD FRONT SINCE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP BEHIND THE PUSH ON THURSDAY (BUT
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE). FOR FRIDAY A WEAK AND DRY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER SINCE IT HAS
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RUN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
FOR THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THAT WILL ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO JUMP
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF,
SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTER A COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY IT LOOKS LIKE,
STARTING THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE A STRING OF DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90'S IN THE LOWLANDS. I'M NOT
SEEING ANY STRONG WINDS OR SCORCHING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SO THAT IS A GOOD THING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON 250-270 AT 10-15 KNOTS AND
PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
SKIES SKC TODAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES BECOME CLEAR. MIN RH 10-20%.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST,
LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK AS CONDITIONS BECOME WARMER AND DRIER. ERCS HAVE
DECREASED DRAMATICALLY AFTER RECENT RAINS, WHICH WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 82 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 77 50 81 / 0 0 10 30
LAS CRUCES 46 78 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 77 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 57 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 78 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 72 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 81 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 78 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 81 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 78 49 86 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 52 86 55 88 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 48 74 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 51 84 55 88 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 48 79 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 80 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 79 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 82 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 82 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 77 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 35 69 40 76 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 35 68 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 35 66 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 35 71 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 76 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 44 78 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 74 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 75 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 40 80 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 75 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 75 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 45 79 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 79 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 79 50 84 / 0 0 10 0
CLOVERDALE 46 75 50 80 / 0 0 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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