500
FXUS64 KEPZ 180505
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1105 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1105 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2026
- THE MOISTURE AND RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT FROM WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY.
- WE WILL SEE LOWER OR NO RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TYPICAL MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. BELOW
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2026
OUR WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS,
THAT IS WHY WE HAVE SEEN SIMILAR WEATHER WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH
NIGHT. THE PLAYERS THAT HAVE BEEN GIVING US THIS WEATHER IS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA. ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARD THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL HELP PUSH OUR PLUME OF MOISTURE EASTWARD. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY, DRIER AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND IT AND THAT WILL LOWER OUR
RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY WE WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PW'S) WELL BELOW AN INCH, SO WE MAY BE RAIN FREE ON
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THAT BEGINS TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION.
BUT IT WILL BE A SLOW TAP OF MOISTURE, SO MONDAY IS ALSO LOOKING
PRETTY DRY. BUT BY TUESDAY, WE WILL AGAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE
CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE TWO WILL PULL UP ABUNDANT MOISTURE UP OUT
OF MEXICO. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
RAINY. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE WILL HAVE, BUT
IF WE HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING, BUT IF WE JUST HAVE A LOT OF RAIN SHOWERS, IT
WILL BE COOL AND DAMP, BUT THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING WILL BE LOWER.
TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. BUT
THEN AS THE MOISTURE RETURNS, WE WILL SEE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2026
ANOTHER NIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY A BROAD
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. FOR KDMN, AND KELP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS BY 3 AM, BUT KTCS AND KLRU WILL
HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY,
WE WILL AGAIN SEE A THREAT FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THIS THREAT
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, SO I HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN KELP'S TAF. WE WILL SEE MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR LOWER CEILINGS THE FURTHER EAST FROM THE RIO GRANDE THAT YOU
GO. STORM MOTION ON FRIDAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU SEP 17 2026
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. WE WILL
REMAIN WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND. WE START
WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, SLUMPING TO THE LOW
TO MID 20S AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT, THEN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE FOR FRIDAY, AND THEN THE FAR EAST FOR SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE PRECIP FREE. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH ANOTHER WET PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, LIMITING VENT RATES, BUT WITH DEEP MIXING,
VENT CATEGORIES WILL STILL RANGE FAIR TO GOOD FOR FRIDAY, BECOMING
GOOD TO VERY GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 91 68 91 / 60 20 40 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 91 64 91 / 10 10 30 30
LAS CRUCES 65 88 62 88 / 70 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 88 64 89 / 50 30 40 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 67 49 68 / 50 50 50 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 82 61 86 / 90 50 20 10
SILVER CITY 60 79 59 82 / 60 40 10 10
DEMING 64 88 61 90 / 80 30 10 0
LORDSBURG 65 87 64 90 / 60 30 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 91 68 91 / 60 20 30 0
DELL CITY 67 94 66 93 / 10 10 50 20
FORT HANCOCK 71 98 71 97 / 10 20 40 20
LOMA LINDA 65 86 64 85 / 40 10 40 0
FABENS 69 95 68 94 / 40 10 40 10
SANTA TERESA 68 90 65 90 / 60 10 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 90 67 90 / 60 30 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 66 87 62 88 / 70 30 30 0
HATCH 66 88 62 91 / 80 40 20 0
COLUMBUS 68 90 65 92 / 70 20 10 0
OROGRANDE 65 88 62 88 / 60 20 40 10
MAYHILL 55 80 55 82 / 30 50 50 30
MESCALERO 53 78 53 79 / 50 50 50 10
TIMBERON 53 77 53 77 / 40 40 60 10
WINSTON 55 75 52 78 / 80 60 10 20
HILLSBORO 64 82 62 86 / 90 50 10 10
SPACEPORT 63 84 59 87 / 80 40 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 79 53 81 / 70 50 10 10
HURLEY 60 81 58 85 / 70 40 10 0
CLIFF 62 86 60 88 / 60 30 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 84 59 85 / 40 20 10 0
FAYWOOD 62 80 60 84 / 80 40 10 0
ANIMAS 65 88 64 91 / 60 20 0 0
HACHITA 64 87 62 90 / 70 30 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 88 64 91 / 60 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 62 85 62 86 / 50 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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