206
FXUS64 KEPZ 011820
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
- RECORD WARMTH THROUGH TUESDAY, ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- BREEZY AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING A BIT.
- FIRE DANGER INCREASES DURING THE WORKWEEK DUE TO CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
VERY LOW AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO, RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE CHANGING SOMEWHAT. FOR
TODAY AND MONDAY CONTINUED SUNNY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
FLUTTERING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT RECORD LEVELS
BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF PACIFIC LOWS FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH; THE FIRST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
THESE FEATURES BUT THEY WILL BUMP UP WINDS. BOTH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS LOOK TO INCREASE TO WEST 15-25 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WEDNESDAY IS THE SLACK DAY SO WINDS TAIL OFF
THEN.TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT NEAR-RECORD LEVELS. WITH THE
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, FIRE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DETERIORATE AND
APPROACH CRITICAL, THOUGH NOT MEETING THAT CRITERIA.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SECONDARY VORT
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE SECOND EXITING LOW FROM ABOVE. THIS VORT
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE BAJA BY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT PUSHES IN
SATURDAY MORNING FOR A COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS, THOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. LITTLE ADDED MOISTURE SO REMAINING DRY. HOWEVER THIS
PATTERN ALSO ALLOWS SOUTHEAST FLOW TO OPEN UP GULF OF AMERICA
MOISTURE AND EVENTUAL DRY-LINE TO APPROACH THE CWA BEYOND THIS
PERIOD. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
WEST 8-12 KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY WORSEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS CONTINUED
NEAR-RECORD LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY PERSIST. BREEZIER
WINDS (15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH) DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS TO PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
SLIGHTLY HIGER HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD
ALLOW FIRE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOME.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 7-13% THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 10-18% THROUGH
FRIDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY,
BECOMING VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 88 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 85 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 84 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 84 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 65 43 61 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 85 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 47 77 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 44 88 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 83 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 86 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 44 88 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 93 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 80 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 51 90 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 85 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 86 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 85 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 88 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 49 88 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 41 84 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 79 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 44 75 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 73 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 40 79 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 83 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 85 37 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 77 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 44 80 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 29 82 34 78 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 78 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 80 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 85 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 85 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 86 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 80 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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