263  
FXUS64 KEPZ 182128  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
328 PM MDT THU JUL 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWLANDS, WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE  
THEME THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH  
TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE  
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING AN  
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR ALOFT  
LOOKS TO DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE  
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVELY WIDESPREAD THIS  
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA REGION AND PARTS OF  
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS (NOTABLY N AND S OF CLOUDCTOFT). SLOW  
MOVING STORMS HAVE LED TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR, IT IS  
QUIET IN THE LOWLANDS, AND DESPITE WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S  
THIS MORNING, MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO HAS MANAGED TO MIX  
OUT INTO THE MID-40S, WITH 50S MOSTLY CONFINED TO AN AREA ROUGHLY  
SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ALM-LRU LINE. RAP13 ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE  
VALUES IN THE LOWLANDS MUCH HIGHER IN THIS AREA AS WELL, WITH  
SBCAPE >1000 J/KG MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OTERO, EL PASO AND HUDSPETH  
COUNTIES, AND THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE BOOTHEEL. HOWEVER,  
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING EXISTS WITH SBCIN GENERALLY IN THE 80-120 J/KG  
RANGE. THE LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ALSO HINTS AT THIS, AND A EARLY  
AFTERNOON RAOB FROM WSMR HQ CONFIRMS IT.  
 
CAMS MODELS INCLUDING MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST A FEW CELLS  
WILL SURVIVE COMING OFF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS INTO PARTS OF EL  
PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY, WHERE THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER  
CIN. ALSO, THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOOTHEEL APPEARS TO A HAVE A  
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS  
TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD, THROUGH WE'LL REMAIN IN E TO NE FLOW  
ALOFT, WITH MOSTLY RECYCLED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMING FROM THE  
SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND AVAILABLE  
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT SPOTTY AND INCONSISTENT IN THE LOWLANDS, MUCH  
LIKE TODAY, WITH SOME AREAS MIXING OUT INTO 40S DEWPOINTS, AND  
OTHERS STAYING IN THE LOWER-50S. EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE  
LOWLANDS.  
 
ON SUNDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO GIVE US A BOOST IN LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE, MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE UPPER  
RIDGE LOOKS TO FURTHER DRIFT NORTHWARD, AND NE MID-LEVEL FLOW  
APPEARS WILL BE IDEAL FOR STEERING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE  
SACRAMENTOS INTO THE MESILLA AND EL PASO VALLEYS. CONTINUED MOIST  
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER "UPTICK"  
DAY, THOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY BE MORE FAVORED, ESPECIALLY IF THERE  
IS MUCH RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT  
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NE FLOW PULLING  
DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS INTO OUR AREA, DIMINISHING  
PRECIP COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z-20/00Z
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO POSSIBLE TSRA. SKIES  
GENERALLY SCT- BKN100-130 BKN250 THROUGH PERIOD WITH LOWER  
CEILINGS (BKN070CB) NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS 260-310 AT 10-15KT  
BACKING TO 210-250 AT 05- 10KT AFTER 06Z. FURTHER BACKING EXPECTED  
BY 18Z TOMORROW UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. CONFIDENCE FOR VCTS IS  
HIGHER AT KTCS AND KDMN TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH LOWER  
CONFIDENCE AT KELP AND KLRU. TEMPORARY VRB25G40KT 3SM POSSIBLE  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A CONTINUED MONSOONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE  
WEEKEND, WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE  
HIGHEST OVER MOUNTAIN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MIN RH IN THE 20-30% RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND.  
WEAK AFTERNOON WINDS WILL LEAD TO FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES  
MOST DAYS.  
 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE EAST ALONG WITH  
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT PROMOTING MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM  
COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY  
THREAT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 75 99 76 101 / 20 10 30 10  
SIERRA BLANCA 69 93 70 94 / 30 20 30 10  
LAS CRUCES 71 97 70 98 / 10 20 20 10  
ALAMOGORDO 73 98 70 100 / 10 30 20 20  
CLOUDCROFT 57 76 54 78 / 20 60 20 50  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 99 72 99 / 10 30 20 20  
SILVER CITY 65 91 65 92 / 10 40 20 40  
DEMING 70 99 69 99 / 10 20 20 10  
LORDSBURG 70 97 69 98 / 20 20 20 10  
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 99 77 100 / 20 10 30 10  
DELL CITY 72 99 72 101 / 20 10 30 10  
FORT HANCOCK 76 99 77 101 / 20 10 30 10  
LOMA LINDA 71 93 70 94 / 30 10 30 10  
FABENS 75 98 76 100 / 20 10 30 10  
SANTA TERESA 73 98 74 99 / 10 10 30 10  
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 98 73 99 / 10 20 20 10  
JORNADA RANGE 71 99 70 99 / 10 20 30 10  
HATCH 71 100 71 101 / 10 20 30 10  
COLUMBUS 73 99 72 100 / 20 20 30 10  
OROGRANDE 73 97 72 98 / 10 20 20 10  
MAYHILL 62 86 59 88 / 20 50 20 50  
MESCALERO 61 86 59 88 / 10 50 20 50  
TIMBERON 59 82 56 85 / 20 40 20 40  
WINSTON 62 91 61 92 / 10 40 30 50  
HILLSBORO 68 97 67 98 / 10 40 30 40  
SPACEPORT 69 99 67 99 / 10 30 30 10  
LAKE ROBERTS 59 92 57 92 / 10 50 30 50  
HURLEY 65 94 66 94 / 10 30 20 30  
CLIFF 62 98 62 100 / 20 30 20 30  
MULE CREEK 67 94 67 95 / 20 30 20 20  
FAYWOOD 67 93 67 94 / 10 40 30 30  
ANIMAS 68 98 67 99 / 30 20 30 10  
HACHITA 68 97 68 98 / 30 10 30 10  
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 94 68 96 / 40 20 30 10  
CLOVERDALE 65 90 64 91 / 40 30 30 10  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
25-HARDIMAN / 30-DENNHARDT  
 
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