312
FXUS64 KEPZ 130425
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1025 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE REGION'S BEST CHANCE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
RETURNING MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH WELL ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA, WITH
RIDGING OUT WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
DESPITE THIS HIGH, SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON, AND STILL LINGERED AROUND EAST OF THE RG VALLEY
DURING HEATING TIME, LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
THESE WERE STRONG TO SEVERE AND A CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW EVENTUALLY
SPREAD OUT TO THE WEST. OUTFLOW FRONT IS CURRENTLY TO DEMING-BLACK
RANGE LINE. EARLIER HRRR RUNS HANDLED THIS FEATURE, THOUGH A FEW
HOURS TO SLOW WITH IT. DEWPOINTS ROSE DRAMATICALLY BEHIND IT, FROM
THE 30S TO LOWER 50S. THIS WILL HELP FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN SATURDAY, THOUGH DAY-TIME MIXING WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS AGAIN
WEST OF THE RG VALLEY. THUS BEST CHANCES SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF THE RG VALLEY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WITH PWS .80 WEST TO 1.30 EAST, AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AS HIGH AS 60 DEG IN THE EAST. THUS STORM
CHANCES SHOULD BE SPREAD ACROSS ALL THE CWA, THOUGH BEST CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE EAST. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES AND DECENT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS STRONG AND/OR SEVERE STORMS.
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO DROP A BIT MONDAY BUT INSTABILITY PERSISTS AND
CANADIAN LOW DRAGS A SHORT WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO, ADDING DYNAMICS TO
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE ANOTHER DAY FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS DIMINISHING
TUESDAY, THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A POSSIBLE
STORM OR TWO EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY AND LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE OF RAIN. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW TROUGH/LOW OVER SOCAL THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE, BRINGING BACK A CHANCE
OF STORMS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SOAR AGAIN WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS RANGING FROM ABOUT 102-107
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT100 SCT-BKN250. SURFACE WINDS
EAST/SOUTHEAST 12-17G27 KNOTS...DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS
AFTER 09Z. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN AFTER 18Z, WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS AFTER 21Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES THIS EVENING. VENTILATION RATES THIS WEEKEND WILL
RANGE FROM GOOD OUT EAST TO EXCELLENT OUT WEST INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS
WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 10 MPH. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE TURNING HOT AND DRY MIDWEEK.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OUT
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SOME MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 103 77 97 / 0 0 10 50
SIERRA BLANCA 64 96 67 91 / 10 10 10 50
LAS CRUCES 68 100 71 96 / 0 0 10 40
ALAMOGORDO 68 99 71 94 / 10 0 20 70
CLOUDCROFT 51 78 53 69 / 10 20 20 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 99 72 92 / 0 10 10 40
SILVER CITY 63 93 63 91 / 0 0 10 20
DEMING 69 101 71 99 / 0 0 10 10
LORDSBURG 68 98 69 97 / 0 0 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 72 101 75 95 / 0 0 10 40
DELL CITY 65 99 68 90 / 30 10 20 40
FORT HANCOCK 70 103 73 99 / 10 10 10 60
LOMA LINDA 65 94 68 87 / 10 0 10 40
FABENS 69 103 72 98 / 0 0 10 40
SANTA TERESA 68 101 72 95 / 0 0 10 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 101 77 94 / 0 0 10 70
JORNADA RANGE 67 100 70 95 / 0 0 10 60
HATCH 68 103 71 99 / 0 10 10 30
COLUMBUS 73 101 77 99 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 65 98 68 91 / 10 0 10 50
MAYHILL 56 88 57 74 / 20 50 10 70
MESCALERO 55 88 58 79 / 10 20 20 80
TIMBERON 52 84 55 76 / 20 10 10 60
WINSTON 61 90 60 84 / 0 30 10 60
HILLSBORO 68 96 68 91 / 0 20 10 40
SPACEPORT 65 99 67 94 / 0 10 10 40
LAKE ROBERTS 51 94 55 91 / 0 10 10 30
HURLEY 64 96 65 94 / 0 0 10 20
CLIFF 53 99 58 98 / 0 0 10 10
MULE CREEK 49 94 54 93 / 0 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 65 95 67 92 / 0 10 10 30
ANIMAS 67 97 67 96 / 0 10 10 20
HACHITA 67 98 68 97 / 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 97 67 96 / 0 20 10 30
CLOVERDALE 64 92 63 91 / 0 10 10 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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