814
FXUS64 KEPZ 201759
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1159 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
- ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS, AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
WE HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GIVE
US A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WE COULD SEE SOME
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
SOMEWHAT DRY ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE SURFACE, DOWNDRAFT CAPE'S OF
1,000 TO 1200 J/KG, WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THAT
MOVE DOZENS OF MILES OFF FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE LESS MOISTURE AND LESS LIFT, BUT STILL ENOUGH
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED SHOWER IN HUDSPETH COUNTY,
OTHERWISE, WE START A STREAK OF DRY WEATHER.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WE WILL HAVE A ZONAL (WEST TO EAST)
FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL GIVE US BREEZY TO WINDY
AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. NOT TOO MUCH WIND, CONSIDERING IT IS APRIL
AND NO REAL DUST CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WE WILL SEE MORE BREEZY WARM WEATHER ON
SATURDAY, BUT ON SUNDAY WE WILL HAVE WINDY CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THAT FACT ALONG WITH A DECENT LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE US
WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST
WOULD LIKELY ALSO BE A PROBLEM THAT DAY. BUT BEFORE WE GET TO
SUNDAY THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO ARE LOOKING REALLY NICE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS AND LIGHT WINDS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KTCS WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME LOW
END WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS AREA MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST OF
KELP. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THIS EVENING THAT WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR WILL BE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS AT KELP AND KLRU
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF KELP. FOR
TONIGHT WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED CEILINGS AND THOSE
NICE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING AS A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH VALUES IN THE
20S WILL FOSTER A DRY LIGHTNING RISK. BEST STORM/SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOR LOWLANDS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WARMER WEATHER TODAY WITH WINDS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 10 MPH WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER, BUT WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY REMAINING BREEZY EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THUS, ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 87 60 88 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 82 52 83 / 30 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 50 84 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 84 53 84 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 61 42 62 / 20 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 84 53 84 / 20 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 77 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 50 87 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 49 82 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 86 60 86 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 47 85 50 88 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 54 89 55 91 / 20 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 52 79 55 80 / 20 10 0 0
FABENS 55 88 57 88 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 86 60 85 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 47 85 50 84 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 48 87 50 86 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 83 52 84 / 10 10 0 0
MAYHILL 41 74 45 75 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 41 72 45 73 / 20 10 0 0
TIMBERON 41 70 45 70 / 20 10 0 0
WINSTON 40 77 40 75 / 20 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 50 82 51 81 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 84 47 84 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 77 42 74 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 83 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 46 79 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 50 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 84 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page