837
FXUS64 KEPZ 110429
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1029 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- BREEZY EAST WINDS TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA.
- A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE 90S WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEHIND THE OUTFLOW-ENHANCED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WEST MTN
SLOPES WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT,
SUBSIDING MON AM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. THE BREEZY WINDS
SHIFT WEST DURING THE AM TOWARDS AZ. WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT, LOW STRATUS/FOG LOOKS
TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AM IN THE SACS, MIXING OUT DURING THE
DAY. OTHER THAN SCATTERED CU OVER AREA MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON,
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON MON.
AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER NM INTO WED, KEEPING RAIN/STORM CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES COULD SHOOT
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUR WAY IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH
POSSIBLE DUST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST EACH AFTERNOON IF THE SUBSIDENCE CAPPING
CAN BE OVERCOME.
THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN WED/THU AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE
WEST COAST. SOME MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTHWARD BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THU AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, BRINGING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOST LIKELY, THE MAIN LOW PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH THU/FRI WITH SOME BREEZINESS AND DRY WEATHER FOR US. A LESS
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE LOW TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH
STRONGER WEST WINDS TO END THE WORKWEEK. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT IS
MODELED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A DRYLINE TRIES TO DEVELOP TO THE E.
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR MON DUE TO MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
TONIGHT'S FRONT. WARMEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST TUE/WED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE WITH LOWLAND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S. KELP MAY APPROACH 100
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON WED. WE REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS. SCATTERED CU DEVELOP OVER AREA MOUNTAINS MON
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE SKC DURING THE DAY. BACKDOOR FRONT BRINGS
BREEZY E WINDS (GUSTS TO 20-25KTS) EARLY IN THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
KTCS, SUBSIDING BY THE AM. WINDS SHIFT SE DURING THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
TODAY AND THIS EVENING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING N AND W
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS
FRONT DOES HAVE SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT, WITH INCREASES
IN DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL ADD MOISTURE TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE, AND SPILLING INTO SIERRA COUNTY. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THIS COULD MEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SACS, AND MORE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS OF OTERO
COUNTY, AND NORTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THERE ALSO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT A STRAY STORM OVER EASTERN SIERRA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, FOR MOST OF THE REGION, ANOTHER DRY DAY. THE REGION
REMAIN ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SW U.S. THIS
MEANS LOW GRADE WARMING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. IT ALSO MEANS NO STRONG WINDS EVENTS. OVER TIME
THIS WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST,
AND SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY WED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUED TREND TOWARD WARMING AND DRYING. BOTH MIN RHS AND RH
RECOVERY WILL SUFFER, AS WE SEE VALUES TREND DOWNWARD, WITH DAILY
LOW RH NEAR SINGLE-DIGITS. THUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
TOWARD ELEVATED, BUT DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS WILL NOT BE
ON THE INCREASE. THUS, WITHOUT STRONG WINDS, WE WILL AVOID A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK, DESPITE THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 81 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 85 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 53 85 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 64 45 71 / 10 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 86 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 82 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 89 56 95 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 88 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 87 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 83 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 91 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 80 57 87 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 59 89 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 86 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 86 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 85 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 89 57 95 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 89 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 84 57 90 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 77 49 84 / 10 10 0 10
MESCALERO 43 75 49 82 / 10 10 0 0
TIMBERON 41 71 45 78 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 80 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 84 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 51 85 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 83 50 88 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 52 84 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 90 52 94 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 86 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 82 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 58 89 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 58 87 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 88 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 85 59 88 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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