754
FXUS64 KEPZ 080453
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
953 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
- TEMPERATURES RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
THE ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BLANKETED THE AREA WITH
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND EVEN INSTANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY S/SE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PROGRESSING
MORE SOUTH, DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL
OFFER QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE AND OPENS
UP OVER WESTERN MX DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, IT WILL
BEGIN MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY
OFFERING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WEST
TX (TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING). THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER ON WEDNESDAY, BECOMING SW FLOW ON
THURSDAY. FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. TEMPERATURES
EACH AFTERNOON (WED/THUR) WILL WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS, BECOMING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES REMAIN SCT TO
BKN AT 10 AND 20 KFT FOR KELP, FEW TO SCT AT KLRU, AND SKC TO FEW
AT KDMN/KTCS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BECOMING SKC TO FEW250. WINDS LIGHT AND VRB
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
VENT RATES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE, BUT WE WILL SEE
IMPROVING VENT RATES AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE US SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 9,000
FEET. WE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER ON SUNDAY AND THEN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MID WEEK INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE WINDS WILL
STAY WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. MIN RH'S WILL BE DRY, BUT NOT TOO
DRY THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MIN RH'S EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
20%. VENT RATES WILL STRUGGLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
RATES ONLY GETTING TO FAIR AT BEST EACH AFTERNOON, AS I
MENTIONED, BETTER VENT RATES ARE COMING LATER NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 71 44 73 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 44 68 44 69 / 30 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 39 69 38 69 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 38 69 38 70 / 10 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 31 50 31 51 / 10 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 68 38 71 / 10 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 37 65 38 65 / 10 0 0 10
DEMING 39 71 38 72 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 37 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 70 46 72 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 41 71 40 71 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 46 74 45 76 / 20 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 44 66 44 67 / 20 0 0 10
FABENS 44 73 43 74 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 41 69 41 71 / 10 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 70 43 71 / 10 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 34 69 34 71 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 37 72 35 73 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 41 70 41 72 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 39 68 38 69 / 10 0 0 10
MAYHILL 37 63 34 65 / 10 0 0 10
MESCALERO 32 61 33 62 / 10 0 0 10
TIMBERON 37 59 37 59 / 10 0 0 10
WINSTON 29 62 30 65 / 10 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 39 67 40 70 / 10 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 34 69 33 71 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 31 64 33 66 / 10 0 0 10
HURLEY 34 66 36 67 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 33 71 34 72 / 10 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 34 68 35 69 / 10 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 39 66 40 67 / 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 38 69 38 72 / 10 0 0 10
HACHITA 37 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 69 39 71 / 10 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 42 66 44 67 / 10 0 0 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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