063
FXUS64 KEPZ 262341
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
441 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 433 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
- RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES.
- LIGHTER WINDS, BUT STILL SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
- NEXT WEEK, CONTINUE FAIR, DRY, AND WARM. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE
AS WARM AS THIS WEEKEND, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO
PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT, BUT WINDY PERIODS LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE STARTING
OUT WEST AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FLATTENING OUT.
GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD HIGHS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. KELP RECORDS ARE 85
TOMORROW WHICH MAY COME UP JUST SHORT AND THEN 83 ON SAT AND 81 ON
SUN. ALMOST CERTAIN THESE RECORDS WILL FALL. 86 IS THE ALL TIME
FEB HIGH TEMPERATURE WHICH WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN THIS WEEKEND AS
WELL. WINDS WILL ALSO BEHAVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH GENERALLY
5-15MPH SPEEDS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL 10-20G30MPH PERIODS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH 40S TO MID 50S IN THE LOWLANDS AND
SOME 30S IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS SOME CHANGE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS WAS SPECULATED YESTERDAY, THE SYSTEM MODELS HAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN MON AND CROSSING THE ROCKIES TUE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH AND QUICKER. THIS MEANS THE MOISTURE WILL NOT GET
INTO THE AREA AND WE WILL JUST HAVE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH
LESS COOLING THAN ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS DAYS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH WED/THU AND AGAIN LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A WIND
MAKER THAN ANYTHING WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME LINGERING
GUSTS TO 20KTS EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE W-NW, OTHERWISE WINDS
AOB 10KTS, BECOMING MORE VARIABLE ON FRIDAY. FEW-SCT250 PASS BY
THIS EVENING WITH MORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND WITH RH'S FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH SO THE FIRE THREAT WILL NOT
BE HIGH. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE AND SPRING RETURNS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH ERC'S COMING UP WITH THE PROLONGED DRY AIR,
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME RED FLAG DAYS WILL OCCUR. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD FRI AND IMPROVE TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 81 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 82 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 80 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 59 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 80 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 45 84 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 88 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 46 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 51 85 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 82 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 40 81 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 84 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 84 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 75 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 40 72 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 37 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 38 76 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 80 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 81 43 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 76 32 78 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 44 78 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 34 82 36 83 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 33 78 35 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 78 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 82 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 83 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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