070
FXUS64 KEPZ 281211
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
611 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 502 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
- QUIETER WEATHER, BUT WITH CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED, BUT BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PATTERN CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH A PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER, A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP MAY TRY TO ARRIVE WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
THIN HIGH CLOUDS STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND THE OTERO
MESA, AND WILL MORE OR LESS HOVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW, WITH SUNNIER SKIES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO'S SOUTHERN
BORDER.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OVERNIGHT,
WITH WINDS ALOFT DIMINISHING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 45 KNOTS WILL STILL RESULT IN WEAK LEE
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RISING
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT, WE WON'T MIX
DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER GUSTS WE SAW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY, OR LIKE WE BRIEFLY SAW IN THE SOUTHERN NM LOWLANDS.
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE LATE IN THE
WEEK, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY MORNING, AND A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL PULL IN A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS, WITH SHOWER
CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO,
PROVIDING INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
LATER THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE LOWLANDS, AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN OPEN TROUGH.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX AFTER THAT...WITH THE BACKDOOR
FRONT POTENTIALLY GETTING A SECOND PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST, AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FOR
A BAND OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT
WHERE EXACTLY THAT SETS UP IS STILL A BIT SKETCHY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS
SCENARIO (THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING), ESPECIALLY WITH MODELS
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM, HOPEFULLY
KEEPING DRY SLOTTING AT BAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
LIKE YESTERDAY, WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO IMPACTFUL AND BLOWING DUST WILL
NOT BE WIDESPREAD (IF ANY AT ALL). THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND THE TIME OF SUNSET AND WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL BE UNLIMITED, BUT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY, WE WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
AND WE WILL HAVE HIGH BROKEN CEILINGS OF BKN250 BY THIS EVENING
AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
WE WILL SEE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF BREEZY AND VERY DRY WEATHER
BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION. FOR TODAY, WE WILL HAVE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. THE WINDS
IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND MIN RH'S
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO GIVE US SOME MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER BUT MIN
RH'S WILL BE VERY DRY WITH SINGLE DIGIT READINGS IN THE LOWLANDS
IN READINGS IN THE TEENS IN AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR WEDNESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE VERY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT OUR WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE LOWER.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE
AREA. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS FRONT WILL SWING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING NICE WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND A SLOW DRYING TREND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 87 67 77 / 0 0 10 50
SIERRA BLANCA 70 84 69 75 / 0 0 10 40
LAS CRUCES 55 82 56 72 / 0 0 10 50
ALAMOGORDO 65 82 66 72 / 0 0 20 60
CLOUDCROFT 49 60 46 51 / 0 0 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 81 57 72 / 0 0 20 50
SILVER CITY 48 74 49 62 / 0 10 30 60
DEMING 52 84 55 73 / 0 10 20 60
LORDSBURG 50 80 54 68 / 0 0 20 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 85 66 74 / 0 0 10 50
DELL CITY 54 87 57 77 / 0 0 10 50
FORT HANCOCK 69 92 67 83 / 0 0 0 40
LOMA LINDA 59 79 62 70 / 0 0 10 50
FABENS 65 89 68 79 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA TERESA 61 84 65 72 / 0 0 10 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 84 65 72 / 0 0 10 60
JORNADA RANGE 55 83 58 71 / 0 0 10 60
HATCH 55 86 62 73 / 0 0 10 60
COLUMBUS 60 87 62 75 / 0 0 10 50
OROGRANDE 59 82 60 71 / 0 0 10 60
MAYHILL 51 73 50 62 / 0 0 20 60
MESCALERO 51 71 50 61 / 0 0 20 60
TIMBERON 47 69 45 59 / 0 0 20 60
WINSTON 44 74 46 63 / 0 0 20 50
HILLSBORO 55 80 56 68 / 0 0 20 60
SPACEPORT 53 82 54 70 / 0 0 20 60
LAKE ROBERTS 32 74 32 62 / 0 10 30 60
HURLEY 47 77 48 67 / 0 10 20 60
CLIFF 41 79 44 69 / 0 10 20 50
MULE CREEK 35 75 37 66 / 0 10 20 50
FAYWOOD 50 77 50 65 / 0 10 20 60
ANIMAS 56 82 61 70 / 0 10 20 50
HACHITA 57 82 61 70 / 0 10 20 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 83 59 72 / 0 10 20 50
CLOVERDALE 49 76 50 65 / 0 10 20 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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