964
FXUS64 KEPZ 272320
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 416 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING GUSTY
EAST WINDS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, SCATTERED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, OTERO
MESA, AND HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS ON MONDAY. WINTRY MIX OF RAIN,
SLEET, AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES.
- TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER NORMAL FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
..TODAY AND TONIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WILL CONTINUE OUR ONGOING RUN OF
EXCEPTIONAL WARM DECEMBER TEMPERATURES. LOWLAND HIGHS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY (LOWER
60S). PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP OUT OF BAJA, AIDED
BY A WEAK PACIFIC SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING SPOTTY (10-20% CHANCE)
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, LIMITED MOSTLY TO OUR NEW
MEXICO COUNTIES. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE VERY LOW AND MISS THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS.
RAIN CHANCES ENDING AFTER SUNSET, WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD
TEMPERATURES. WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN, IN PARTICULAR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT.
..SUNDAY
PACIFIC FRONT DOES COOL THE REGION DOWN FOR SUNDAY, WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER-TO-MID 60S. THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH
TEMPORARILY, LEADING TO A DRY DAY.
..MONDAY
MAIN HEADLINE OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR ON MONDAY,
WITH A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE AND THE REGION'S FIRST TASTE OF WINTER
WEATHER. STRONG BLOCKING HIGH OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW
THE WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN TO LINGER
WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG MID-
LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A 1040+ SURFACE HIGH WITH A POLAR-SOURCED AIRMASS
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL RACE DOWN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY, REACHING EL PASO FROM THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY EAST WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES, ESPECIALLY ALONG WEST SLOPES
OF MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE GUSTS ARE STRONGER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY. 24-HOUR TRENDS
COMPARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 20-25
DEGREES COLDER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WILL BE SET AT MIDNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE LOWER 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AREAS WILL BE
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WHERE PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES MAY NOT EVEN GET ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE LIFTING
NECESSARY FOR PRECIPITATION, AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST (0.25-0.50"
QPF) PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO, EXTENDING EAST ACROSS OTERO AND EDDY COUNTIES. THIS WILL
INITIALLY BE RAIN, BUT QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, OTERO MESA, AND HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS AS THE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS THE MOIST AIRMASS.
CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE HEAVIEST IN OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES. HERE'S A LOOK AT MOST LIKELY RANGES AT IT STANDS TODAY:
- 3-6" SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS (CLOUDCROFT, TIMBERON, MAYHILL)
- 2-4" OTERO MESA (CROW FLATS)
- 2-4" SAN AUGUSTIN PASS (US-70)
- 1-2" NORTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY (US 62-180, CORNUDAS, DELL CITY)
- 0-1" I-10/I-25/US-54 CORRIDORS (EL PASO, LAS CRUCES, ALAMOGORDO)
HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL BE OVER THE RURAL AND HIGH TERRAIN OF
OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE EL PASO, METRO
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN, BUT CHANGE TO
SLEET/WINTRY MIX MONDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET. LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO.
..TUESDAY AND NEW YEAR'S EVE
PACIFIC UPPER HIGH PROGRESSES EAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY FLUSH OUT THE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE A DRY AND QUIET EVENING WEATHER-WISE AS WE USHER IN 2026.
..NEW YEAR'S DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE UPPER FLOW BEHIND THIS PACIFIC HIGH. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE US SOUTHWEST, LEANING THE
FORECAST TOWARD A WETTER SCENARIO. WE WILL BE WARMER, THOUGH, SO
THIS FUTURE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MOSTLY LOWLAND RAIN TO START
THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
ISOLATED -RA HAS DISIPATED AND MOVED OUT OF THE REGION, AND NO
MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THUS, VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AT ALL TAF
SITES. SKIES WILL TREND CLEARER OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL KEEP PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH SOME HIGH CIGS. EXPECT SKIES TO BE SCT-BKN060-080
SCT-BKN120 THROUGH 03Z. SKIES BECOMING FEW-SCT050 SCT-BKN160-200
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS 240-270 AT 05-10 KNOTS, SHIFTING TO THE
NNW AFTER FROPA 290-320 AT 05-10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. AFT 18Z
TOMOROW, WINDS BCMG MORE N AND NNE 340-030 AT 08-13KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER GNF. MIN RH
>50% OVER MOUNTAIN FORESTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT PASSES. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF LNF OVERNIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH NORTH FLOW
LEADING TO POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION.
STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE EAST MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. 3-6" POSSIBLE
OVER LNF, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FOREST. MINIMAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR GNF, WITH MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST ON MONDAY WILL BE
GUSTY, SETTLING DOWN TUESDAY INTO THE NEW YEAR'S HOLIDAY. MIN RH
30-40% EACH DAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 49 66 39 44 / 10 0 40 60
SIERRA BLANCA 45 63 33 40 / 0 0 60 50
LAS CRUCES 42 61 34 41 / 10 0 30 70
ALAMOGORDO 41 61 30 46 / 20 0 30 60
CLOUDCROFT 30 40 20 26 / 30 0 40 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 58 32 45 / 10 0 20 50
SILVER CITY 35 56 33 45 / 40 0 30 50
DEMING 42 63 37 48 / 10 0 30 60
LORDSBURG 38 59 36 49 / 40 0 20 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 65 40 43 / 10 0 40 60
DELL CITY 43 67 32 40 / 0 0 50 70
FORT HANCOCK 47 69 39 47 / 0 0 50 50
LOMA LINDA 44 58 32 35 / 10 0 60 70
FABENS 46 67 38 45 / 0 0 50 60
SANTA TERESA 44 63 37 43 / 10 10 40 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 47 63 36 43 / 10 10 40 80
JORNADA RANGE 42 61 32 43 / 10 0 30 70
HATCH 42 63 34 48 / 10 0 30 60
COLUMBUS 47 63 40 47 / 20 10 30 50
OROGRANDE 42 61 32 41 / 10 10 40 70
MAYHILL 37 55 19 34 / 20 0 40 60
MESCALERO 32 51 20 37 / 30 10 30 60
TIMBERON 33 53 19 33 / 20 0 40 70
WINSTON 27 53 22 41 / 10 0 10 40
HILLSBORO 37 59 31 44 / 20 0 20 50
SPACEPORT 36 59 30 44 / 10 0 20 60
LAKE ROBERTS 30 55 27 46 / 50 0 30 50
HURLEY 35 58 32 46 / 30 0 20 50
CLIFF 33 61 30 55 / 50 0 20 40
MULE CREEK 31 56 30 52 / 40 0 10 30
FAYWOOD 38 58 35 44 / 20 0 20 50
ANIMAS 42 60 38 49 / 30 0 20 30
HACHITA 42 61 37 47 / 20 10 20 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 42 61 38 50 / 30 20 20 30
CLOVERDALE 42 57 38 47 / 30 10 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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