261
FXUS64 KEPZ 030418 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1018 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- DRY AND WARMER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.
- INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A BREEZY
TUESDAY.
- MORE CLOUDS AGAIN FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING VORT CENTER SHEARING OUT EAST OF OUR AREA NOW
WITH ATTENDANT DECREASE (ENDING) OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. NEXT UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND UP TO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE, THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES UP A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
PLUME WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. THE DEEPEST
PART OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT, GIVING THE
FAR WESTERN CWA A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND WEST OF THE RG VALLEY. PWS APPROACHING .80 INCHES SUGGEST SOME
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, AGAIN MOSTLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DECENT MID-LEVEL CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL ALLOW
MON/TUE AFTERNOONS TO BECOME BREEZY WITH TUESDAY MAXING OUT AROUND
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN
TROUGH ALLOWING SHOWERS TO END. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SECONDARY
LOW DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR THE BAJA WEDNESDAY, IN PHASE WITH THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT LIFTED OUT EARLIER. THURSDAY TO
REMAIN DRY, BUT THEN MODELS MOVE THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
MEXICAN SONORAN DESERT FRIDAY, IMPORTING SOME MOISTURE UP TO THE
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW LINGERS AROUND THE CHIHUAHUAN
DESERT OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT PER LATEST MODEL RUNS, LIKELY TOO FAR
SOUTH FOR MUCH IMPACT ON OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT060 INCREASING LAYERS
FROM 150 TO 250. SURFACE WINDS EAST/NORTHEAST AOB 7 KNOTS. WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH 8-12G20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE MID 30S. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE GILA. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP ABOUT 10 DEGREES
FOR SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO MID RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S. WE
DRY FURTHER FOR MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND, BUT WINDS WILL
STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY,
BUT MIN RH VALUES INCREASE BACK ABOVE 20%. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 81 62 86 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 76 54 80 / 10 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 47 77 54 80 / 10 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 45 75 54 79 / 20 0 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 55 42 59 / 20 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 75 56 80 / 20 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 44 71 50 72 / 20 10 10 0
DEMING 49 81 53 83 / 10 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 52 79 52 80 / 0 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 80 62 83 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 45 78 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 84 58 88 / 10 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 47 73 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 52 83 59 86 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 49 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 77 62 81 / 10 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 76 51 80 / 10 0 10 0
HATCH 46 80 54 83 / 10 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 52 82 58 85 / 0 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 47 75 52 79 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 35 67 46 71 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 35 65 45 69 / 20 10 10 0
TIMBERON 35 63 44 67 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 68 44 71 / 30 20 10 0
HILLSBORO 47 74 54 77 / 30 10 10 0
SPACEPORT 44 75 48 79 / 20 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 71 43 72 / 30 10 10 0
HURLEY 44 74 48 75 / 10 10 10 0
CLIFF 42 78 47 78 / 20 10 10 0
MULE CREEK 39 76 42 75 / 20 10 10 0
FAYWOOD 45 73 51 75 / 20 10 10 0
ANIMAS 50 81 53 81 / 0 10 10 0
HACHITA 48 79 53 80 / 0 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 81 53 80 / 0 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 76 51 75 / 0 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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