843
FXUS64 KEPZ 261141
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
441 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 419 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
- RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES, 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
- LIGHTER WINDS, BUT STILL SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZY PERIODS EACH
AFTERNOON.
- NEXT WEEK, CONTINUE FAIR, DRY, AND WARM. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE
AS WARM AS THIS WEEKEND, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO
PRECIPITATION IN SITE, BUT WINDY PERIODS LIKELY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 852 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
WE SET A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN EL PASO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
LOOKS LIKE MORE RECORDS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. EL PASO
MAY RECORD IT'S WARMEST FEBRUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE (CURRENTLY 86
DEGREES) ON SATURDAY. THE REASON FOR ALL THIS WARM WEATHER IS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE IS GIVING US OUR DRY
AND WARM WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHICH IS NEAR RECORD
HIGH VALUES FOR MANY LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. THERE AREN'T ANY STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW ALOFT SO WINDS, THOUGH OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS, WON'T BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.
FOR THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, IT
WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY WEATHER, BUT IT WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
RECORD HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SATURDAY'S HIGHS
COULD BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED FOR ANY DATE IN
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
FOR NEXT MONDAY, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE COOLER AIR (BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE) SLIP INTO THE REGION. THEN FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
WE WILL SEE A PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE TROUGHS IS STILL IN DOUBT, BUT THEY WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION (MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS) ALONG WITH SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY WINDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR FAIR WEATHER, WITH
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LIGHTER WINDS, AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, WITH HIGH, MOSTLY THIN CLOUDS. THUS, NO CIGS BELOW 250,
NO DUST OR LIMITATIONS TO VSBY. WIND FAVORING NW TO N IN THE
5-12KT RANGE, WITH SOME GUSTS BTWN 18Z TO 02Z IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL BUMP THE MINOR SHORTWAVES, THAT HAVE
BEEN CAUSING OUR BREEZY AFTERNOONS, OUT OF THE REGION, RESULTING
IN LIGHTER WINDS. A MINOR FRONT IS WASHING IN FROM THE N AND NE
TODAY, TO MAKE FOR A MORE NORTHERLY, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT, WIND
TODAY. WE CONTINUE QUITE DRY, WITH NO MOISTURE IN SIGHT. DAILY
MINRH WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS, WITH NIGHTLY RECOVERIES REMAINING
GENERALLY FAIR. THUS FUELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDING OVER THE AREA, WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM, WITH DAILY HIGHS NEAR AND EXCEEDING RECORDS, AS THEY CLIMB
TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. WINDS ALOFT WILL STILL BE
MODERATE, AND THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD AFTERNOON MIXING, WITH SOME MARGINALLY BREEZY AFTERNOON
PERIODS.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS SHOW A PAIR OF PACIFIC LOWS SWINGING
ACROSS THE SW, AND PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THESE WILL LIKELY NOT
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION, AS THE MOISTURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH, BUT
THEY DO APPEAR TO DIRECT STRONGER WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
TIMING LOOKS TO BRING STRONG WIND DAYS, WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE GOOD EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE
WARM CONDITIONS HELPING TO KEEP MIXING DEPTH HIGH, AND MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP TRANSPORT WINDS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 85 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 83 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 81 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 60 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 81 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 48 85 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 83 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 85 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 88 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 52 86 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 50 83 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 82 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 85 47 89 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 85 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 41 72 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 70 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 38 76 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 81 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 45 81 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 44 80 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 43 84 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 44 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 80 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 84 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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