424
FXUS64 KEPZ 110410
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1010 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
- DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH STORM CHANCES LIMITED
TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS, POSING A
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
- TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
TULAROSA BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
UL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS FOR TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT
SAID, WE WILL BE A LITTLE HOTTER TOMORROW WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE
MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND OUR BEST
STORM CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE GILA, THE HRRR AND THE NAM NEST DO
SHOW A BIT MORE STORM COVERAGE OVER THE LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. I'M NOT SURE I BUY THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE HRRR, WHICH BRINGS STORMS AS FAR EAST AS EL PASO, BUT I
DID PULL UP POPS TOWARD THE LUNA / DONA ANA COUNTY LINE.
WE'RE STILL ON TRACK FOR A PATTERN CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST,
BRINGING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THE
GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES COVERING MOST OF THE AREA.
AFTER THAT, THE UL HIGH WILL START MAKING A WESTWARD SHIFT, BUT
HOW FAR WEST IS YET TO BE SEEN. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW AN
EASTWARD WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY, BUT ITS
INFLUENCE MAY ONLY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SKC-SCT120/250. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, FAVORING THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) FOR
STORMS AT TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY AT TCS OR DMN, MAINLY AFTER 22Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
GENERALLY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. MOSTLY
DRY TODAY (MONDAY) WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE GILA
REGION. AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN AREAS BORDERING AZ WILL BE
FAVORED FOR STORM CHANCES TODAY AND TOMORROW. LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM
CHANCES AND COVERAGE COMPARED TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THURSDAY AND
ONWARD, WE WILL SEE THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING WITH STORMS.
TEMPERATURES STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THRESHOLDS THURSDAY AND ONWARD. 20 FOOT WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT EACH AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH WITH CALM OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS. MIN RHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 14-20% AND MOUNTAIN RHS OF 25-35%.
BETTER MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD WILL INCREASE
MIN RHS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH VALUES OF 19-30% AND MOUNTAIN
RHS 30-50%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 101 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 97 69 95 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 69 100 69 97 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 72 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 55 75 / 0 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 100 71 97 / 0 10 20 30
SILVER CITY 63 91 61 88 / 10 40 10 40
DEMING 69 100 68 97 / 0 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 68 97 67 92 / 10 30 50 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 101 74 98 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 70 101 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 103 75 101 / 0 10 10 20
LOMA LINDA 69 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 101 73 99 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 71 99 71 96 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 101 74 98 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 71 100 70 98 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 71 103 71 101 / 0 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 74 100 72 96 / 0 20 20 10
OROGRANDE 69 98 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 88 60 87 / 0 10 0 30
MESCALERO 58 87 59 87 / 0 10 10 20
TIMBERON 56 85 57 84 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 62 91 59 88 / 0 30 20 60
HILLSBORO 68 98 67 96 / 0 10 10 40
SPACEPORT 69 100 68 98 / 0 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 58 90 56 88 / 10 40 10 60
HURLEY 64 94 63 91 / 10 30 20 30
CLIFF 65 97 64 94 / 10 40 20 40
MULE CREEK 63 93 61 89 / 20 50 30 40
FAYWOOD 67 95 65 92 / 10 20 20 30
ANIMAS 68 97 67 90 / 20 50 60 40
HACHITA 69 96 67 91 / 10 30 40 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 94 66 88 / 10 40 40 50
CLOVERDALE 63 89 62 82 / 20 60 70 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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