857
FXUS64 KEPZ 020420
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1020 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON WEDNESDAY, THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THEY WILL HOVER ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
STAYING BELOW 100.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
UL HIGH IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST, TOWARD TN/KY, BUT MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR AND NOT SO GREAT THERMODYNAMICS (MLCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG)
HAVE GREATLY LIMITED CONVECTION, KEEPING IT TO THE SACS AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR
TOMORROW, SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO THE SAME
AREAS. BY THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE. THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL MOISTEN UP WITH THE GFS
MUCH QUICKER AND THEREFORE SHOWING MORE QPF ON THURSDAY. EITHER
WAY, IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY. NBM MEAN SHOWS
VALUES PEAKING BETWEEN 1.35-1.45", AND THUS, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
THE MOISTURE STICKS AROUND FOR SATURDAY, BUT THE 500 MB HIGH WILL
BEGIN REFORMING OVER SOUTHERN NM, WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. THIS PATTERN WILL REDUCE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND
THEREFORE LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. I SUSPECT GIVEN PW VALUES
AROUND 1.3" WE'LL STILL SEE SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS.
THE UL HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO START NEXT WEEK WHILE PW
VALUES DRIFT DOWNWARD THANKS TO MID-LEVEL DRYING. NBM MEAN PW
DROPS FROM AROUND 1.35" TO AROUND 1.25" BY NEXT TUESDAY. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THAT WILL
BE WHERE WE SEE OUR BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. REGARDLESS, WE
WILL RETURN TO A HIT AND MISS STYLE FORECAST WITH MOST OF US
MISSING.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO LARGELY HOLD STEADY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH THE NBM KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
LOWLANDS, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ULTIMATELY THOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRYING OCCURS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH NEXT WEEK IF WE SEE EL PASO ADD TO ITS TALLY OF 100 DEGREE
DAYS. CONVERSELY, WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE FRIDAY WE MAY SEE
HIGHS COME IN A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW-SCT 090-250. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH FAVORING THE W TO SW
(220-260) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CHANCE FOR TSRA/SHRA
AFTER 18Z WILL BE AROUND 10% FOR TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WILL DIMINISH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH VERY LOW COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT SIMILAR LOW COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE
FROM THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES INTO THE PICTURE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT WESTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN SW NEW MEXICO, AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MINRH VALUES
WILL BE ON THE UPSWING AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 97 74 97 / 10 0 10 30
SIERRA BLANCA 67 93 67 94 / 10 20 20 30
LAS CRUCES 67 96 69 95 / 0 10 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 68 95 69 96 / 10 0 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 50 71 51 72 / 10 20 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 93 70 93 / 0 0 10 30
SILVER CITY 61 88 62 86 / 0 0 10 40
DEMING 67 96 68 95 / 0 10 10 30
LORDSBURG 66 93 67 91 / 0 10 10 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 97 76 97 / 10 10 10 30
DELL CITY 70 98 71 99 / 10 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 73 100 73 100 / 10 20 20 40
LOMA LINDA 68 90 68 90 / 10 10 20 30
FABENS 71 98 72 98 / 10 0 10 40
SANTA TERESA 70 95 72 95 / 0 10 10 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 96 73 96 / 0 20 10 30
JORNADA RANGE 68 95 68 95 / 0 20 10 30
HATCH 68 99 69 98 / 0 0 10 30
COLUMBUS 72 97 72 95 / 0 10 10 40
OROGRANDE 67 95 68 95 / 10 0 10 20
MAYHILL 56 84 57 85 / 10 20 20 30
MESCALERO 55 83 56 84 / 10 20 20 30
TIMBERON 54 82 54 82 / 10 20 20 30
WINSTON 57 85 58 84 / 10 10 10 40
HILLSBORO 66 93 67 92 / 0 0 10 30
SPACEPORT 66 95 66 94 / 0 0 10 30
LAKE ROBERTS 55 86 56 85 / 0 0 10 50
HURLEY 62 91 63 89 / 0 0 10 30
CLIFF 63 94 64 93 / 0 0 10 40
MULE CREEK 61 89 61 88 / 0 0 10 40
FAYWOOD 65 90 65 89 / 0 0 10 30
ANIMAS 67 92 67 90 / 0 20 20 40
HACHITA 66 92 66 91 / 0 10 10 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 90 65 88 / 10 30 40 40
CLOVERDALE 63 84 62 82 / 10 30 30 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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