582
FXUS64 KEPZ 150457
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1057 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1013 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
VERY STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE COMING TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IN COLORADO WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES TO
THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM
CANADA WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND MOVE FURTHER SOUTH. A
VERY STRONG 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVING THIS AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO NEW MEXICO.
THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, REACHING THE EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES METRO
AREAS THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PACKING
AND A LOW LEVEL JET WITH THIS FRONT THAT WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED
BEGIN THURSDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY FOR OTERO, EL PASO,
AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COUNTIES ALONG WITH HIDALGO AND SOUTHERN
GRANT COUNTIES WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG
WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND WARNING LEVELS. BLOWING DUST IS
LIKELY WITH THE STRONG WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN EL PASO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES ALONG WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DONA ANA, LUNA COUNTIES
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY EVENING. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED
ALONG THE PLAYAS IN HIDALGO COUNTY ON FRIDAY.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 60S
IN THE LOWLANDS. MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 12 TO
16 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY REMAIN NEAR ZERO. A
POTENTIAL MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE AREA, HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS, HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
FACTOR IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
WETTER AND WARMER. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PULLING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE BOOTHEEL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP
WILL BE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM
MORNING FEW060-080, CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES. SOME LOW END GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL BE PRESENT FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF AND SHIFTING MORE
NORTHERLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 00Z A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
VERY STRONG. WINDS WILL BE AT LEAST 08030G40KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOME BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY AT KELP
BEGINNING 03Z THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO OCCUR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
KELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TOMORROW. MIN RHS TODAY
WILL BE ABOVE 20%, AND FOR THURSDAY, LOWLAND MIN RHS WILL BE IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER TEENS AND UP TO 30% IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW END
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY.
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT (MOVING EAST TO WEST) WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST IN THE
EVENING HOURS AND INCREASE DRASTICALLY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE WEST OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS OTERO, HUDSPETH, AND EL
PASO COUNTIES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE REGION, WITH HIGH-END WIND GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
LOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FAVORING OUT EAST IN WEST TEXAS AS
WELL AS THE AREA MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MAY EVEN SEE A
WINTRY MIX EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 80 54 63 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 80 47 56 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 51 75 49 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 77 48 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 58 27 40 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 72 48 65 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 71 45 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 75 50 65 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 76 51 64 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 79 55 63 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 57 81 52 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 88 54 65 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 53 75 45 54 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 59 85 55 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 78 53 62 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 78 51 67 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 76 48 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 77 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 79 53 64 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 76 49 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 68 34 49 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 70 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 43 66 33 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 38 66 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 71 46 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 74 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 35 72 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 73 45 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 44 78 50 70 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 74 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 71 46 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 77 53 63 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 76 50 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 77 50 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 73 48 57 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK
RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES
BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-NORTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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