159
FXUS64 KEPZ 062259
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
459 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 459 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 80S.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE HANGING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK LOW HANGING OVER UTAH, PUSHING THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE BORDER FURTHER INTO MEXICO TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SCANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT ZERO.
ONCE THE LOW REACHES NEW MEXICO, IT WILL SLIGHTLY EXPAND ON
WEDNESDAY AND MARGINALLY RAISE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE AREA
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE MINIMAL. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES DEEPER INTO WEST TEXAS
AS A WEAK REX BLOCK PATTERN FORMS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE
LOWLANDS WILL STAY DRY, BUT MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO START A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BLOW FROM THE EAST AT 8-12 MPH.
THE REX BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
DEEPER INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GILA ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. ON SUNDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN PART OF OUR REGION.
SUNDAY IS ALSO WHEN BOTH MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE LATEST GFS
RUN HAS THE TROUGH PULL IN WHAT WOULD BE SIMON, DRENCHING SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY BEFORE ADVECTING ITS MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN DOES NOT HAVE SIMON FORM IN ITS
LATEST MODEL RUN, BUT IT STILL HAS MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, IT
IS TOO SOON TO TELL WHICH TRACK (IF EITHER) WILL WIN OUT, BUT WE
WILL KEEP WATCH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN060 MOSTLY ALONG THE
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER. THESE CLOUD SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z. CLOUD BUILDUPS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTER 18Z OF
SCT-BKN060, AND BY 21Z...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE. WINDS VARIABLE AOB 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE REGION CONTINUES TO DRY OUT FROM LAST WEEK'S RAIN, THOUGH LIGHT
WINDS AND MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 30% ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOW TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
THE LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION RATES WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RISING TO GOOD ON THURSDAY AS TRANSPORT WINDS
FROM THE EAST INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 86 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 81 59 79 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 58 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 81 58 79 / 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 44 62 43 58 / 0 10 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 81 57 79 / 0 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 55 78 55 75 / 0 10 10 10
DEMING 58 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 58 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 58 84 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 64 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 59 79 59 76 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 62 88 63 86 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 60 84 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 85 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 59 86 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 73 49 69 / 0 10 10 20
MESCALERO 49 74 49 70 / 0 10 10 20
TIMBERON 48 69 48 66 / 0 0 10 20
WINSTON 49 75 50 72 / 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 59 81 59 78 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 56 82 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 78 49 75 / 0 10 20 20
HURLEY 54 80 55 78 / 0 0 10 0
CLIFF 56 85 56 83 / 0 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 55 82 54 80 / 0 0 10 10
FAYWOOD 56 79 57 77 / 0 0 10 0
ANIMAS 59 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 58 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 58 80 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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