499
FXUS64 KEPZ 121646
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1046 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S.
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING IN THE GILA
WILDERNESS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, CREATING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE SIERRA MADRES WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. SCATTERED CU CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OUT WEST AND OVER AREA
MTNS WITH LIGHT WINDS AREA-WIDE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE
RIDGE ON WED, BRINGING SOME MOISTURE AND INCREASING CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY. A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH SOME GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS POSSIBLE. AN
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE GILA
REGION/SACS DUE TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR. VERY DRY AIR HOLDS BELOW
THE CLOUD LAYER, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO FOR THE LOWLANDS.
THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR TO THE EAST BY THU AM.
FROM THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNDER SW/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS EACH DAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH W-SW WINDS OF ABOUT 10-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH NO BLOWING DUST EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS DUE TO THE VERY LOW
RHS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY BREEZIER THAN THE OTHER DAYS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING A DEEPER UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD CREATE
STRONGER WINDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES PEAK ON WED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
(KELP HAS AN 18% CHANCE OF HITTING 100 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR). TEMPS MODERATE SLOWLY TOWARDS NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AOB 8KTS
WITH SOME VARIABILITY. SCT CU DEVELOP OVER HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 12KFT, DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN WED MORNING FROM SW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW-MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREA MTNS, PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SLIGHTLY
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON WED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS AND
BRINGS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
IN FWZ110. RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO VERY DRY
AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
SEEN OVER AREA MTNS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, MODESTLY BREEZY
S-SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRYING OUT FROM THU ONWARD WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS, CREATING
ELEVATED-NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. MOST AFTERNOONS WILL
SEE W-SW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AT 20 FEET WITH THU BEING SLIGHTLY
BREEZIER. THE DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THE
STATE OF FUELS WITH ERCS HEADING TOWARDS THE 90TH PERCENTILES
THIS WEEKEND. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 7-18% THROUGH THU, THEN 4-12%. VENT RATES WILL
BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD TODAY, THEN MOSTLY EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 99 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 93 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 95 61 92 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 95 67 93 / 0 0 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 73 52 71 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 93 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 59 86 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 60 97 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 62 92 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 97 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 96 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 66 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 64 90 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 64 99 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 60 95 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 96 74 94 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 60 95 62 92 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 61 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 97 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 63 94 65 91 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 55 85 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 53 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 53 80 53 79 / 0 0 10 0
WINSTON 51 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 62 92 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 58 94 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 54 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 58 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 55 92 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 55 88 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 89 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 61 93 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 86 59 84 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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