627
FXUS64 KEPZ 301134
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
534 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSING TOWARD SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY EAST
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WELL OFF THE SOCAL COAST WITH ONLY A
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. AHEAD OF IT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET
EXTENDS FROM THE BAJA ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
JUST SOUTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET, THOUGH OVER NEW MEXICO IT IS
STILL MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
ALL MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN MOVING THE LOW OVER THE MEXICAN
SONORAN DESERT BY THURSDAY EVENING, AND THEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOISTEN DOWN FROM
THE TOP OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS, WITH VIRGA OR LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BY VERY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INTO THE EVENING, THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES CLOSE ENOUGH TO START ADDING SOME DYNAMICS,
BOTH WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE
AREA WELL AFTER DARK THURSDAY. THUS EXPECT MORE ACCUMULATING TYPE
RAIN TO START ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THURSDAY
EVENING INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING.
THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW ARE MOSTLY OVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
AT THE SURFACE A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL DROP DOWN BEHIND THIS
EXITING LOW, AIDED BY A RAPIDLY MOVING SMALL CANADIAN LOW DROPPING
TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS COULD KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS, MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, PERSISTING
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS LAST FEATURE IS
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND COULD EVEN MEAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
SACS ABOVE 10000 FT (SIERRA BLANCA). THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
COULD ALSO ADD SOME BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WEST SLOPES OF
TERRAIN.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER SUNDAY WILL BEGIN
A STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONG SUB-TROPICAL
JET MIGRATES TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW. GFS TAKES LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY FOR A WINDY DAY. ECMWF ALSO BRINGS THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BUT QUICKLY DROPS A SECONDARY LOW
DOWN TO THE MEXICAN CHIHUAHUAN DESERT WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD MEAN
SOME SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. HOPEFULLY THE MODELS CONVERGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW RUNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
LIGHT WEST FLOW 260-290 AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING, BECOMING
BREEZY 230-260 AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES SCT-BKN100 BKN-OVC150. -SHRA BEGINNING OVER S NM
AND FAR W TX AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE MVFR VIS 3-5 SM DUE
TO SHRA BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT DUE TO ISOLATED -TSRA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL LIMIT FIRE
DANGER, WITH GENERALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS. MIN RH 15-25% WITH
20-FT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH. PEAK GUSTS TO 25 MPH
MID-AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
PROVIDING WETTING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF S NM. NEW
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.10-0.25, WITH HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE OVER LNF.
LOW FIRE DANGER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO RECENT RAINS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE EAST ON
FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH THROUGH
SUNDAY.
A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS BEGINS NEXT MONDAY, WITH
MIN RH BACK TO 15-25% EACH AFTERNOON AND BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST 15-25 MPH. CURRENTLY, WINDS LOOK TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH HIGHER RH MAY KEEP US AWAY FROM RED
FLAG ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 55 67 48 71 / 90 60 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 62 42 65 / 90 70 10 10
LAS CRUCES 50 67 43 69 / 80 60 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 63 42 67 / 80 90 40 20
CLOUDCROFT 34 40 29 46 / 90 90 50 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 68 46 68 / 50 70 50 20
SILVER CITY 44 68 40 66 / 60 50 40 10
DEMING 50 74 45 73 / 70 60 30 10
LORDSBURG 48 74 45 72 / 70 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 66 49 70 / 90 60 20 0
DELL CITY 51 63 42 66 / 90 80 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 71 47 74 / 90 60 10 0
LOMA LINDA 49 58 42 63 / 90 70 20 0
FABENS 55 69 47 72 / 90 60 10 0
SANTA TERESA 52 66 45 69 / 90 50 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 65 47 69 / 80 70 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 50 66 42 69 / 70 80 40 10
HATCH 52 71 45 72 / 70 70 40 10
COLUMBUS 53 74 48 74 / 80 40 10 0
OROGRANDE 51 61 43 66 / 90 80 30 10
MAYHILL 37 48 32 57 / 90 90 40 20
MESCALERO 38 49 32 57 / 90 90 50 30
TIMBERON 37 48 32 53 / 90 90 40 20
WINSTON 40 61 36 61 / 40 70 50 30
HILLSBORO 49 67 44 66 / 50 70 50 20
SPACEPORT 50 68 42 68 / 60 70 50 10
LAKE ROBERTS 40 69 37 66 / 50 60 40 20
HURLEY 44 69 41 68 / 60 50 30 10
CLIFF 45 76 44 74 / 50 30 20 10
MULE CREEK 43 74 42 71 / 40 20 20 10
FAYWOOD 46 67 42 66 / 70 60 40 10
ANIMAS 49 75 46 74 / 80 20 10 0
HACHITA 48 73 44 71 / 80 30 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 74 45 73 / 90 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 46 70 45 70 / 90 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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