509
FXUS64 KEPZ 090450
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
950 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
- WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR WEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECOND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
..MONDAY
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE
THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION ONSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE EL PASO REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON MONDAY,
WITH A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH
MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS.
..TUESDAY
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS CHIHUAHUA TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE RETURNS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL JUMP INTO THE LOWER 50S AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE
NORTH OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FAVORING
WEST TEXAS AND MUCH OF I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
00Z HRRR SUGGESTS SURFACE INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG) WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS END UP WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS 0.50-0.75", ESPECIALLY FOR EL PASO/HUDSPETH
COUNTIES AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE TRANS-PECOS TERRITORY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.
..WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SYSTEM EXITS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH BROAD RIDGING FLOW
BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOOK DRY AND WARM, WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH
DAYS WILL PROMOTE THIS SUBTLE WARMING TREND. THIS WOULD MEAN
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
..FRIDAY
PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK, MOST LIKELY FRIDAY, AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, THUS ALLOWING FOR HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW (ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ABOVE 7,000 FEET). OVERALL QPF IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
..NEXT WEEKEND
NEXT WEEKEND CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL PATTERN HEADED INTO MID-FEBRUARY FEATURES A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, SUGGESTING A WETTER-THAN-USUAL
PATTERN FOR THE WEST COAST DURING THIS TYPICALLY DRY SPRING
SEASON. THIS COULD ALSO INDICATE THE START OF OUR WINDY SEASON,
WITH UPPER JET STREAKS INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SCT-BKN250 ACROSS
W TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND SKC-FEW250 FOR SW NM. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE AOB 5 KNOTS TONIGHT, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TOMORROW
AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, BUT THE IMPACTS
WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION WE WILL HAVE DRY
MIN RH'S BUT NOT TOO DRY AND WE WILL SEE SOME WINDS OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS, BUT NOT TOO WINDY. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY
CRITICAL LEVELS REACHED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MIN RH'S WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS TODAY AND MONDAY IN THE LOWLANDS AND
IN THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. THEN MIN RH'S COME UP FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, THEN THE DROP A LITTLE LOWER FOR THE END OF WEEK.
EVERY PLACE STILL LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE 15% THROUGH FRIDAY. WE WILL
HAVE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN A LITTLE
STRONGER WINDS (BUT STILL WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS) FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR ON
MONDAY AND THEN FAIR TO GOOD ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 72 51 67 / 0 0 10 50
SIERRA BLANCA 44 70 49 63 / 0 0 20 70
LAS CRUCES 37 68 46 66 / 0 0 10 30
ALAMOGORDO 36 69 43 67 / 0 0 0 40
CLOUDCROFT 30 50 36 48 / 0 0 0 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 71 44 68 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 38 66 42 64 / 0 0 0 30
DEMING 38 72 45 69 / 0 0 10 40
LORDSBURG 36 70 43 66 / 0 0 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 71 52 66 / 0 0 10 50
DELL CITY 37 70 46 64 / 0 0 10 50
FORT HANCOCK 44 75 52 71 / 0 0 20 70
LOMA LINDA 44 66 49 61 / 0 0 10 50
FABENS 41 73 51 68 / 0 0 20 60
SANTA TERESA 39 70 48 65 / 0 0 10 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 70 50 67 / 0 0 10 40
JORNADA RANGE 33 70 43 68 / 0 0 0 30
HATCH 34 73 43 70 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 39 71 48 67 / 0 0 20 40
OROGRANDE 36 68 45 65 / 0 0 10 40
MAYHILL 34 66 41 60 / 0 0 0 40
MESCALERO 32 61 38 60 / 0 0 0 40
TIMBERON 36 58 41 56 / 0 0 10 40
WINSTON 29 66 34 63 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 40 70 44 67 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 33 70 41 67 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 33 66 37 64 / 0 0 0 30
HURLEY 35 68 41 66 / 0 0 0 30
CLIFF 33 72 39 70 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 34 69 39 67 / 0 0 0 20
FAYWOOD 39 67 45 65 / 0 0 0 30
ANIMAS 36 72 46 66 / 0 0 10 30
HACHITA 36 70 43 65 / 0 0 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 71 46 66 / 0 10 20 40
CLOVERDALE 43 68 47 61 / 0 10 10 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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