114
FXUS64 KEPZ 121141
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
441 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 428 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
- FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER SEVENTIES,
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
- OUR NEXT PACIFIC STORM ARRIVES FRIDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
LOWLAND RAIN AND A WINTRY MIX OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER EXITS EARLY SATURDAY, WITH FAIR WEATHER
FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF STRONGER
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
THE REGION RESIDED UNDER THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
FEATURE ALOFT OVER TEXAS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS BORDERLAND. THE STREAM OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR STREAMS OF HIGH CLOUDS, AND A FEW MID CLOUDS, BUT
OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
70S, NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
FRIDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE THE AFFECTS OF OUR NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ARRIVES, AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
SCAL/N BAJA AREA. WE WILL SEE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY, AS TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER AVERAGE.
THE SYSTEM TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND AIMS IT DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MOISTURE, COMBINED
WITH DIFFLUENT LIFTING FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREA
WIDE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
SW NEW MEXICO, SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND INTO
FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 50-80% RANGE
LOOK GOOD, WITH THE BEST RAIN/SNOW CHANCES OVER THE GILA AREA. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING, HELPING TO PROVIDE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT, AIDING
IN RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES , WITH THE FRONT WILL
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FROM 8500 FEET DOWN TO AROUND 7500 FEET, WHICH
MEANS HIGH ELEVATIONS SITES LIKE CLOUDCROFT AND PINOS ALTOS COULD
SEE A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE
MINIMAL WITH THIS QUICK HITTING EVENT, LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR THE MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES. TOTAL RAIN QPF IS 0.10-0.25" FOR
MOST AREAS, THUS LOW IMPACTS.
THE STORM SYSTEM REMAINS PROGRESSIVE, AND EXITS OUR PORTION OF NEW
MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERTAKE
THE REGION AFTER MIDDAY, ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SPEEDING UP THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM, SO RAIN/SNOW COULD END,
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MEANS THE
BULK OF THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY, WITH CLEARING SKIES. WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE REMAIN COOL WITH THE COOLER NW WINDS, WHICH
LOOK TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL FOLLOW, WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS UNDER A PASSING SHARP UPPER HIGH.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MODELS FEATURE A PATTERN THAT SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT
PATTERN OF WEST COAST TROUGHING, WITH SHORTWAVES GETTING SPIT OUT
AND LIFTING E TO NE ACROSS, AND NORTH OF, THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS PUTS OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SWATHS, WITH A REGION OF DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS OVER AREAS
TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE BREEZY, GUSTY, AND POTENTIALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE GILA.
THIS PATTERN IS NOT UNLIKE WHAT WE SEE AS MORE TYPICAL SPRING
CONDITIONS, AS THE TRACK OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BEGIN TO TAKE A
FLATTER W TO E TRACK, AND PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS DEEP SW AND W FLOW REGIME WILL RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE OUR NEXT SHOT OF AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES STARTS
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD GENERALLY AOB
10KT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MIN RHS STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS TO 10-15 MPH. LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAWIDE LOWLAND RAIN AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTS LATE MONDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK
BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY RIGHT NOW. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE
THESE TWO DAYS AS CRITICAL MIN RHS MAY BE SEEN BOTH DAYS COUPLED
WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF AROUND 10-20 MPH. TUESDAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS
THE WINDIEST DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 66 45 66 / 0 70 70 10
SIERRA BLANCA 51 66 41 60 / 0 60 80 10
LAS CRUCES 47 62 40 63 / 10 70 60 10
ALAMOGORDO 47 65 37 63 / 0 70 70 20
CLOUDCROFT 36 46 27 40 / 0 80 80 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 61 42 65 / 0 70 70 10
SILVER CITY 44 56 35 57 / 10 90 70 10
DEMING 47 64 41 66 / 10 80 70 10
LORDSBURG 46 60 40 61 / 10 80 80 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 65 45 66 / 0 70 60 10
DELL CITY 47 67 41 63 / 0 60 70 10
FORT HANCOCK 52 72 44 68 / 0 70 70 10
LOMA LINDA 51 61 40 58 / 0 70 70 10
FABENS 52 69 44 68 / 0 70 70 10
SANTA TERESA 50 64 42 65 / 0 70 60 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 65 44 65 / 10 70 70 10
JORNADA RANGE 45 64 37 66 / 10 70 70 10
HATCH 46 66 40 69 / 10 80 70 10
COLUMBUS 50 65 45 65 / 10 80 70 0
OROGRANDE 49 64 40 63 / 0 70 70 10
MAYHILL 40 58 32 52 / 0 70 70 20
MESCALERO 38 58 30 52 / 0 80 90 30
TIMBERON 42 54 33 49 / 0 70 70 20
WINSTON 37 56 30 58 / 0 80 70 10
HILLSBORO 46 61 37 65 / 10 80 70 10
SPACEPORT 44 62 35 66 / 0 70 70 10
LAKE ROBERTS 40 56 32 58 / 10 90 80 20
HURLEY 43 58 35 59 / 10 90 70 10
CLIFF 43 61 36 64 / 10 90 70 10
MULE CREEK 42 57 34 60 / 10 90 70 10
FAYWOOD 46 58 38 61 / 10 90 80 10
ANIMAS 48 62 41 63 / 10 80 80 10
HACHITA 47 61 40 61 / 10 70 70 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 62 40 62 / 10 70 70 0
CLOVERDALE 47 55 40 56 / 10 80 80 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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