516
FXUS64 KEPZ 131126
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE REGION'S BEST CHANCE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
RETURNING MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH WELL ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA, WITH
RIDGING OUT WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
DESPITE THIS HIGH, SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON, AND STILL LINGERED AROUND EAST OF THE RG VALLEY
DURING HEATING TIME, LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
THESE WERE STRONG TO SEVERE AND A CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW EVENTUALLY
SPREAD OUT TO THE WEST. OUTFLOW FRONT IS CURRENTLY TO DEMING-BLACK
RANGE LINE. EARLIER HRRR RUNS HANDLED THIS FEATURE, THOUGH A FEW
HOURS TO SLOW WITH IT. DEWPOINTS ROSE DRAMATICALLY BEHIND IT, FROM
THE 30S TO LOWER 50S. THIS WILL HELP FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN SATURDAY, THOUGH DAY-TIME MIXING WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS AGAIN
WEST OF THE RG VALLEY. THUS BEST CHANCES SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF THE RG VALLEY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WITH PWS .80 WEST TO 1.30 EAST, AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AS HIGH AS 60 DEG IN THE EAST. THUS STORM
CHANCES SHOULD BE SPREAD ACROSS ALL THE CWA, THOUGH BEST CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE EAST. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES AND DECENT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS STRONG AND/OR SEVERE STORMS.
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO DROP A BIT MONDAY BUT INSTABILITY PERSISTS AND
CANADIAN LOW DRAGS A SHORT WAVE OVER NEW MEXICO, ADDING DYNAMICS TO
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE ANOTHER DAY FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS DIMINISHING
TUESDAY, THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A POSSIBLE
STORM OR TWO EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY AND LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE OF RAIN. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW TROUGH/LOW OVER SOCAL THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE, BRINGING BACK A CHANCE
OF STORMS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SOAR AGAIN WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS RANGING FROM ABOUT 102-107
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MAINLY FROM THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ISO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT TCS. ALL
SITES WILL BE SUBJECT TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS A RESULT OF THE
STORMS. SKIES WILL MAINLY BE SCT-BKN250 WITH FEW- SCT100 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT MAINLY FOR
AREA MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE / ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS
FOR THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE MID 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. MORE MOISTURE AND A
PASSING SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE STARTING TUESDAY. VENT RATES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE GOOD TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 97 71 90 / 10 50 80 20
SIERRA BLANCA 67 91 62 82 / 10 50 80 40
LAS CRUCES 71 96 63 89 / 10 40 70 30
ALAMOGORDO 71 94 64 88 / 20 70 80 40
CLOUDCROFT 53 69 48 67 / 20 80 80 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 92 65 89 / 10 40 60 30
SILVER CITY 63 91 59 87 / 10 20 30 40
DEMING 71 99 65 95 / 10 10 60 30
LORDSBURG 69 97 66 94 / 10 0 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 95 69 89 / 10 40 80 10
DELL CITY 68 90 63 85 / 20 40 70 40
FORT HANCOCK 73 99 68 91 / 10 60 80 40
LOMA LINDA 68 87 62 82 / 10 40 80 30
FABENS 72 98 67 91 / 10 40 80 30
SANTA TERESA 72 95 65 88 / 10 40 80 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 94 70 88 / 10 70 80 30
JORNADA RANGE 70 95 63 88 / 10 60 80 30
HATCH 71 99 64 92 / 10 30 60 40
COLUMBUS 77 99 69 94 / 10 10 60 10
OROGRANDE 68 91 63 86 / 10 50 70 30
MAYHILL 57 74 53 77 / 10 70 80 90
MESCALERO 58 79 52 78 / 20 80 80 70
TIMBERON 55 76 50 73 / 10 60 80 70
WINSTON 60 84 55 83 / 10 60 50 50
HILLSBORO 68 91 62 87 / 10 40 50 60
SPACEPORT 67 94 61 88 / 10 40 70 30
LAKE ROBERTS 55 91 53 88 / 10 30 30 50
HURLEY 65 94 60 89 / 10 20 40 40
CLIFF 58 98 59 94 / 10 10 20 30
MULE CREEK 54 93 55 91 / 10 10 20 20
FAYWOOD 67 92 61 87 / 10 30 50 50
ANIMAS 67 96 65 94 / 10 20 40 10
HACHITA 68 97 63 93 / 10 10 50 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 96 64 92 / 10 30 40 10
CLOVERDALE 63 91 62 88 / 10 30 40 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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