969
FXUS64 KEPZ 281836
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1136 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY EAST
WINDS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, SCATTERED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, OTERO
MESA, AND HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS ON MONDAY. WINTRY MIX OF RAIN,
SLEET, AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES.
- TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER NORMAL FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
CALM AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
THE REGION TONIGHT, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
MON, ESPECIALLY OUT EAST. BRISK EAST WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
MON AM, RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS AND SOME TEENS OUT EAST. WEST MTN SLOPES WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS MON AM, PARTICULARLY THE HUECOS AND FRANKLINS
WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE OBSERVED. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE DAY, HITTING THE LORDSBURG PLAYA IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE IMPENDING
WINTER WEATHER ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS, BUT IT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW OUT OF NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA INTO S
NM. A PECULIAR PATTERN SETS UP IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH GENERAL
RIDGING OVER THE REGION AS THE MOISTURE AXIS SITS UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP.
AS COLD AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, PRECIP BEGINS AS
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. THE W-E ORIENTED
MOISTURE AXIS PROGRESSES SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MON AM,
ENCOUNTERING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN, RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
WARM NOSE HOWEVER IN AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA. SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN HUDSPETH CO AND OTERO MESA. SFC TEMPS
FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 40F AND WITH THE
MOISTURE FOCUSING IN S NM, EL PASO IS UNLIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIP IN EL PASO WILL FALL AS RAIN, BUT
SNOW/SLEET MAY MIX IN DEPENDING ON HOW PRONOUNCED THE WARM NOSE IS.
THE SNOW BAND IS MODELED TO STALL OUT IN S/SE NM, GIVING THE SACS
THE BEST CHANCE AT MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MODELS HAVE STUCK
WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND IN THE PRECIP, RESULTING IN LOWER SNOW
CHANCES FOR HUDSPETH, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE OTERO MESA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE SACS IS 3-7" WITH UP TO 3" TO THE SOUTH,
FAVORING THE BROKEOFF MTNS. SAN AUGUSTIN AND EMORY PASSES COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES AS WELL WITH THEIR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LESS
CONCERN FOR MIXING COMPARED TO THE SURROUNDING LOWLANDS. AS PER
USUAL, THE CAMS HAVE SPIKED THE TOTALS TO AROUND A FOOT FOR THE
SACS, BUT THE AMOUNT OF QPF DOES NOT SUPPORT THOSE NUMBERS. ABOUT
0.5" OF LIQUID IS FORECAST IN THE SACS FROM THE NBM/GLOBAL MODELS,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AROUND 6" OF SNOW. PRECIP LINGERS MON
EVENING, REMAINING OVER THE SAME ZONES BEFORE COMING TO AN END
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DECREASES AND SAGS SOUTH INTO TUE AS UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TUE LOOKS
MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES.
NEW YEAR'S EVE LOOKS DRY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE BEFORE A PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVES IN. AS THE CLOCK STRIKES MIDNIGHT INTO 2026,
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACH WESTERN AREAS, BECOMING ISOLATED INTO
THU AM EAST OF THE RGV. LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRI AS SNOW
LEVELS REBOUND TO 10KFT+. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY TO END
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT
NOT RECORD-BREAKING LIKE WE SAW LAST WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
AND LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MOSTLY SKC TODAY, THEN
BECOMING BKN040-050 LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. MOST PRECIP MON AM WILL
BE SNOW FOR KTCS WITH RAIN FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS. CIGS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS FROM ABOUT 12Z ONWARD. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS NE BY THE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-30KTS
LATER IN THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF KTCS, WHICH WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS.
WINDS STAY AOB 10KTS THROUGH THE EVENING FROM N-NW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON, SOME BREEZY NW WINDS LINGER FOR FWZ113 AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NW. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST, BRINGING BRISK WINDS FOR MONDAY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH
FROM THE EAST ARE EXPECTED ALONG WEST MTN SLOPES IN THE MORNING,
PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE AZ BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
COMPARATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH. WINTRY
WEATHER DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT, FOCUSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH MON
AS PREDOMINANTLY SNOW FALLS IN THE MTNS AND OUT EAST. DRIER WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FOR TUE AND WED. LOW-MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN
AREAS WED NIGHT/THU. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER FOR MON INTO TUE, THEN
REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS WILL BE 15-35% THIS AFTERNOON, THEN 35-65% THROUGH TUE.
VENT RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOSTLY
POOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 37 46 33 54 / 50 50 40 10
SIERRA BLANCA 32 40 28 52 / 50 50 40 10
LAS CRUCES 32 41 28 50 / 60 60 40 10
ALAMOGORDO 29 44 23 52 / 60 60 50 10
CLOUDCROFT 23 24 21 37 / 50 70 60 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 42 32 52 / 20 60 40 10
SILVER CITY 35 42 30 51 / 40 50 40 20
DEMING 34 46 29 53 / 50 60 40 10
LORDSBURG 33 47 27 53 / 40 50 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 44 36 53 / 50 50 40 10
DELL CITY 26 40 22 51 / 60 60 40 10
FORT HANCOCK 33 48 29 58 / 50 50 30 10
LOMA LINDA 32 36 29 48 / 50 60 40 10
FABENS 35 46 31 56 / 50 50 40 10
SANTA TERESA 35 43 30 52 / 50 50 40 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 41 29 51 / 60 60 40 20
JORNADA RANGE 28 42 23 51 / 60 60 50 10
HATCH 30 44 26 54 / 50 60 50 10
COLUMBUS 38 47 32 54 / 50 50 40 10
OROGRANDE 32 41 28 50 / 60 60 50 10
MAYHILL 21 32 22 50 / 50 70 60 10
MESCALERO 23 35 23 48 / 40 70 60 10
TIMBERON 20 31 19 44 / 60 70 60 10
WINSTON 23 38 21 48 / 20 50 30 10
HILLSBORO 33 41 30 50 / 30 60 50 10
SPACEPORT 29 42 25 51 / 30 60 50 10
LAKE ROBERTS 29 42 26 54 / 40 60 50 20
HURLEY 33 44 28 50 / 50 50 30 10
CLIFF 31 51 27 59 / 30 50 30 10
MULE CREEK 33 49 28 56 / 20 50 20 10
FAYWOOD 36 41 32 49 / 50 60 40 20
ANIMAS 37 48 30 54 / 40 50 30 10
HACHITA 33 46 26 52 / 50 50 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 38 50 29 54 / 40 40 20 10
CLOVERDALE 42 47 33 51 / 40 40 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN.
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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