504
FXUS64 KEPZ 210450
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1050 PM MDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 829 PM MDT MON APR 20 2026
- DRIER AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DRY OUT ALL BUT
HUDSPETH COUNTY. STILL A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE OVER TO THE EAST,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TUESDAY SHOWER OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY.
- SETTLE IN FOR BREEZY AND WINDY DAYS WEDNESDAY THOUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, AS A BROAD WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES, PRODUCES STRONG WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE RISE, COMPOUNDING EACH DAY WITH WARM,
DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS DRYING OUT FUELS AND MAKING ANY FIRE
START HARD TO CONTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 829 PM MDT MON APR 20 2026
A BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE LINGERED TODAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR A SECOND DAY OF MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT HELPED
KICK OFF SHOWERS TODAY WILL EASE OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW, AS A
MINOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS OVER THE AREA. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOVE MOISTURE EAST, AND
IMPORT DRY AIR OVER 4/5TH OF OUR FORECAST AREAS FROM THE WEST.
ONLY HUDSPETH COUNTY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD ON TO ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE FOR ANY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE REST OF OUR
REGION WILL BE BACK TO DRY, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING, A
NOTICEABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES, AND SLIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES. THUS
A FAIR AND MILD DAY FOR THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE WESTERN U.S. COMES UNDER A BROAD
STANDING TROUGH, WITH MULTIPLE SHARP IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH IT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS MEANS ONE SURE THING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...INCREASED WINDS. EACH AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS, WITH MOST OF THESE AFTERNOON BECOMING WINDY. THERE WILL
BE NO MOISTURE, JUST DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY, AND WITHOUT RIDGING
OVERHEAD, THEY WILL STAY QUITE SEASONAL; BOUNCING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND
BELOW THE DAILY AVERAGES. DEWPOINTS AND RH WILL ALSO BOUNCE AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON, WHICH MEANS VERY LOW, VERY DRY, AND
PROBLEMATIC FOR DRYING OUT FUELS, AND RAMPING UP FIRE DANGER. THE
FINAL INGREDIENT IS THE MOST OBVIOUS, THE WINDS. AT LEAST BREEZY
EACH AFTERNOON, AND PROBABLY AT LEAST LOW-END WINDY MOST. NO
SCREAMING CRAZY DAYS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY.
MOST AFTERNOON WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE, BUT SUNDAY
LOOKS LIKE A 30-40 MPH RANGE DAY, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WE WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUING FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS, AND POSSIBLY WIND AND DUST
ADVISORIES FOR SOME OF THESE DAYS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE DRY, SO NO RAIN OR STORMS.
BEHIND SUNDAY'S SHARP TROUGH PASSAGE, WE SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS, AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILD TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL START TO SLACKEN WINDS, BUT STILL BREEZY MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK LESS WINDY, WITH A WARMING TREND AND FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 829 PM MDT MON APR 20 2026
CLEARLY ON THE BACK END OF TODAY'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WITH ONE
FINAL STORM CELL IN HUDSPETH COUNTY. STILL SOME MID-EVENING OUTFLOW
WINDS TO CONTEND WITH, BUT THEY ARE RELATIVELY UNIMPACTFUL IN THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH NO CIGS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT KELP THROUGH 05Z WITH THE OUTFLOW, BUT THEN
SLACKENING THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE 3-8 KT RANGE.
TOMORROW, GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH SCT-BKN HIGH
AND FEW-SCT MID CLOUD MOVING IN FROM THE SW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASE TO 5-12 KTS WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-20 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING AS A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20S
WILL FOSTER A DRY LIGHTNING RISK. BEST STORM/SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOR LOWLANDS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT WARMER WEATHER TODAY WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND
10 MPH WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER, BUT WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY REMAINING BREEZY EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
TOP OUT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THUS, ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 87 60 87 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 81 52 82 / 30 10 20 0
LAS CRUCES 50 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 83 53 85 / 10 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 61 42 61 / 10 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 84 53 84 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 77 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 50 87 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 49 83 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 85 61 86 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 48 85 50 87 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 89 56 90 / 20 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 52 79 56 79 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 55 88 57 89 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 85 60 85 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 85 50 84 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 48 87 50 87 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 83 52 84 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 74 45 74 / 10 10 10 0
MESCALERO 42 72 45 73 / 10 10 10 0
TIMBERON 40 70 45 71 / 20 10 10 0
WINSTON 40 76 40 76 / 20 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 50 82 51 82 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 84 47 84 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 77 42 74 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 83 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 46 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 79 49 78 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 50 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 84 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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