841
FXUS64 KEPZ 022041
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
241 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2020
SYNOPSIS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED INTO THE BORDERLAND, AND THIS WILL
BRING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED
LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS A
COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED SOUTH OF THE BORDERLAND WILL
BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH TOMORROW. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER AREA MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AS MANY CAM
REFLECTIVITY MEMBERS SHOW STORMS IN THE AREA, WITH THE ACTIVITY
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS, BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM, AS WELL AS SOME BLOWING DUST.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
BY TOMORROW, AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WHERE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. AGAIN, THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
STORM WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST WITH
SOME STORMS. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INHIBITS THEIR DEVELOPMENT.
29
LONG TERM
IT LOOKS LIKE JULY AS THE LONG TERM FEATURES A TYPICAL MONSOONAL
PATTERN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (FRIDAY EVENING) THE H500
SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOOKS TO BE CENTERED TOWARDS THE NM/ AZ/
CHIHUAHUA/ SONORA BORDERS WITH WESTERLY OR NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES AOA 1". THUS,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE S/W ROUNDING THE UL
HIGH, AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING.
THE HIGH WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN POSITION THOUGH PERHAPS WITH A
SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT
FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY. WITH ANY STORM, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
BACK EAST. WITH CONTINUED WEAK WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO SOUTHERN NM AND FAR W TX. IF THIS HAPPENS,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE WOULD DECREASE TUESDAY ONWARDS.
THE LATEST GFS AND MANY OF ITS ENSEMBLES ARE AGAINST THE IDEA OF
DRIER AIR INTRUDING, WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO OF
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN/ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS.
HIGHS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE AOA NORMAL WITH EL PASO
HANGING OUT IN THE U90S OR L100S EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, BUT
SOME AREAS COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN. IT'S THE MONSOON,
SO WELCOME TO THE RAINFALL LOTTERY. GOOD LUCK TO THOSE WHO NEED
OR WANT THE RAIN AND LIKEWISE TO THOSE WHO HATE IT.
34
AVIATION
18Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS, BUT STILL EXPECTING STORMS IN THE
LOWLANDS. MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORM WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY
NEAR THE TAF SITES, SO LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT, BUT WILL
AMEND IF THERE IS A NEED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
29
FIRE WEATHER
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR AFFECTING THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, WE ARE EXPECTING RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, PLUS WE GAIN ADDITIONAL GULF
MOISTURE DUE TO A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WINDS TOMORROW.
THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, DRY
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE KEEPS A RISK FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
DRY LIGHTNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL INDUCE A DRYING TREND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 15%
TOMORROW, BUT DECREASING TO THE LOWER TEENS BY SUNDAY, EXCEPT IN
HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WHERE VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN THE OTHER HAND, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK LOW. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM
THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORIES TOMORROW INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
CATEGORIES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE A RESULT OF HIGHER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE HEIGHT OF THE
MIXING LAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 98 75 100 / 10 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 66 92 69 92 / 20 30 20 30
LAS CRUCES 68 97 70 97 / 10 10 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 69 97 71 99 / 10 30 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 50 74 53 74 / 20 40 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 96 71 98 / 10 20 20 20
SILVER CITY 62 89 65 92 / 10 20 10 20
DEMING 64 98 67 100 / 10 10 20 10
LORDSBURG 64 96 67 98 / 10 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 98 76 100 / 10 20 20 10
DELL CITY 68 99 70 99 / 20 30 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 72 99 73 101 / 20 30 20 20
LOMA LINDA 70 92 72 93 / 20 30 20 20
FABENS 74 99 76 101 / 20 20 10 10
SANTA TERESA 68 98 71 98 / 10 20 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 97 75 98 / 10 20 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 60 96 69 97 / 10 20 20 10
HATCH 63 98 69 99 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 68 98 71 100 / 10 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 69 97 72 98 / 10 30 20 20
MAYHILL 56 84 59 84 / 20 40 20 50
MESCALERO 53 85 57 85 / 20 40 20 50
TIMBERON 52 83 56 82 / 20 40 20 50
WINSTON 53 89 58 90 / 10 30 10 20
HILLSBORO 62 95 64 97 / 10 20 10 20
SPACEPORT 62 96 66 97 / 10 20 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 55 90 57 92 / 10 20 10 20
HURLEY 60 92 62 95 / 10 20 10 20
CLIFF 50 96 56 99 / 10 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 51 92 64 95 / 10 20 10 10
FAYWOOD 62 94 64 95 / 10 20 10 20
ANIMAS 63 96 66 99 / 10 10 10 10
HACHITA 61 96 65 97 / 10 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 95 66 97 / 20 10 20 20
CLOVERDALE 62 91 65 92 / 20 10 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
29-CRESPO-JONES/34-BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page