787
FXUS64 KEPZ 041127
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
527 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
- BREEZY WEST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.
- WARMER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES BECOMING ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
HEADING INTO MONDAY. LOCALLY, THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN A
SUBTROPICAL TAP KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. IN
ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 15-25 MPH OUT OF THE WEST ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO START LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE GILA REGION AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE THE AREA
MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN NEW MEXICO HAVING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN THAT AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN,
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15-25
MPH AGAIN, BUT MAY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO
MONDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS. MODELS AGREE ON PINCHING OFF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA BUT DISAGREEMENTS IN THE GFS AND EC
SOLUTIONS ON THURSDAY WITH WHAT MODELS WILL DO WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THE LOW CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND
SPINNING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BRINGING THE AREA SOME RAIN
CHANCES. MEANWHILE, THE EC SWEEPS THE LOW PRESSURE OFF BACK INTO
THE MAIN FLOW AND KEEPS US DRY THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND
QUIET WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
BEGINNING 240-270 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING, THEN PREVAILING
WSW 15G25KT THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. SKIES
SCT120 BKN200.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER. MIN RH 15 TO 25% WITH WSW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ALLOWING FOR
EXCELLENT VENTILATION. SMOKE TRANSPORT DUE EAST. BREEZY WINDS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO, WITH NEW
RAIN AMOUNTS 0.05-0.15 OVER GNF.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS CONDITIONS BECOME
WARMER AND DRIER. ERCS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY AFTER RECENT
RAINS, WHICH WILL DECREASE FIRE DANGER THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 80 56 79 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 76 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 75 46 75 / 10 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 74 47 75 / 10 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 50 34 52 / 10 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 73 48 75 / 10 30 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 64 38 66 / 20 50 0 0
DEMING 53 77 45 76 / 10 30 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 73 41 73 / 20 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 77 56 78 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 79 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 63 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 71 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 62 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 76 50 76 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 76 54 76 / 10 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 74 45 75 / 10 20 0 0
HATCH 55 77 46 78 / 10 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 56 79 50 78 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 74 49 74 / 10 10 0 0
MAYHILL 48 64 41 65 / 10 20 0 0
MESCALERO 45 61 38 63 / 10 30 0 0
TIMBERON 45 60 38 61 / 10 10 0 0
WINSTON 42 65 33 68 / 20 50 0 10
HILLSBORO 53 71 43 73 / 10 30 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 73 41 75 / 10 20 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 64 33 66 / 20 50 0 0
HURLEY 46 69 38 69 / 20 40 0 0
CLIFF 48 71 38 72 / 30 50 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 66 36 69 / 40 60 10 0
FAYWOOD 49 68 40 69 / 10 30 0 0
ANIMAS 51 74 43 74 / 10 20 0 0
HACHITA 50 73 43 74 / 10 30 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 74 45 75 / 10 20 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 68 42 69 / 10 20 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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