031
FXUS64 KEPZ 110417
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1017 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
- DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND BEFORE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND WEST.
- MOISTURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK; BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AREA
WIDE ARE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE SONORAN DESERT.
POLAR JET HAS IMPINGED SOMEWHAT TOWARD OUR AREA BUT REMAINING NORTH.
WITHIN AND UNDER THE HIGH, RECYCLED MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SATELLITE AND KEPZ SOUNDING SHOW
PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. PW TREND FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND IS TO SHED ABOUT ANOTHER .2-.3 INCHES AS THE UPPER HIGH
MOVES FROM FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH ANY EXISTING MOISTURE
FURTHER WEST. THUS LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE BUT MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS WEST OF THE RG VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE WARMEST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWLAND HIGHS APPROACHING 100
DEGREES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS UPPER HIGH
ALLOWS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. PWS APPROACH 1.3-1.4 INCHES.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES ALL AREAS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
LOW/MODERATE FLOOD RISK. MAIN UPPER HIGH ALMOST AS FAR EAST AS THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS GOOD LOCATION FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION, ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE BEARISH WITH RAIN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE WESTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO. HOWEVER EITHER SOLUTION LOOKS PROMISING.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER HIGH GENERALLY BEGINS DRIFTING
WEST AGAIN, LIKELY FORCING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WEST TOWARD THE
ARIZONA LINE. THE ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TOWARD THE END OF THIS
PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A POLAR JET SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO
NEW MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD BRIEFLY BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
EAST AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA, WITH SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. STILL A
LONG WAYS OUT THOUGH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FEW100 SCT250. DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED
BKN060CB -TSRA OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE MTNS, AND POSSIBLE
SPREADING TO THE LOWLANDS WEST OF THE RG VALLEY AFTER 21Z. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 35 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE AREA MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE ROCKIES. MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO THE MID TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MIN RHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE 20% AREA-WIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. VENTILATION
RATES WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 97 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 94 67 97 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 97 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 74 53 75 / 0 0 0 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 97 71 96 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 63 90 63 90 / 10 20 10 20
DEMING 67 98 68 98 / 10 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 68 94 69 94 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 72 97 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 99 69 100 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 91 67 93 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 70 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 69 96 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 98 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 68 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 98 74 98 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 66 96 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 87 58 88 / 10 0 0 40
MESCALERO 55 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 40
TIMBERON 54 83 56 85 / 10 0 0 10
WINSTON 58 89 61 88 / 0 20 20 40
HILLSBORO 68 95 69 94 / 0 20 20 20
SPACEPORT 66 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 90 56 88 / 0 20 20 40
HURLEY 63 93 64 92 / 20 10 10 10
CLIFF 61 96 61 95 / 10 10 20 10
MULE CREEK 58 91 58 90 / 10 10 20 10
FAYWOOD 65 92 66 92 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 68 94 68 93 / 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 68 94 68 94 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 92 66 93 / 20 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 63 85 63 85 / 20 10 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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