985
FXUS64 KEPZ 151824
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1224 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
- FAIR AND SEASONAL TODAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
- BREEZY AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
BRING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A COOL FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY MORNING FOR A COOLER WEEKEND.
- MOISTURE SLIPS IN FROM THE EAST FOR A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SUNDAY OVER AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
UPPER TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME ARE FINALLY TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA,
ALLOWING FOR THE SKIES TO CLEAR. NICE QUIET DAY TODAY AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES OVER US. THINGS CHANGE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
UPPER LOW NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND BEGINS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW BREEZY WINDS BOTH DAYS.
RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT WINDIER BUT TROUGH TIMING A BIT TOO
FAST FOR BEST POTENTIAL. STILL STIFF MID LEVEL WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING STRONG GUSTS TO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS.
WILL LIKELY ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SITUATION.
TROUGH EVENTUALLY BRINGS STRONG PACIFIC COOL FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA,
INITIALLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A SIDE DOOR FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT COULD BRING BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS DOWN
THE SIERRA LAKES/TULAROSA BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT AM MORE CONCERNED
ABOUT VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG EASTER NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS COULD CAUSE
A HYDRAULIC EFFECT IN OUR EASTERN CWA WITH MUCH STRONGER WINDS
THAN WHAT THE MODELS SHOW. WEST SLOPES COULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF
40-50 MPH BRIEFLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BIT OF A BREEZE
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXITING TROUGH INITIALLY ALLOWS SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVER US SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN UPPER LOW/VORT CENTER MOVES OVER NW
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TURNS LOWER LEVEL WINDS (BELOW 700MB)
MORE SOUTHEAST TO EAST, IMPORTING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY. THUS SOME LOWER RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. AS USUAL GFS/CMC MOST BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION,
THOUGH EVEN THE ECMWF SHOWS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MONDAY, SO WILL KEEP A
MENTION IN THEN FOR RAIN CHANCES. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD INDICATE
SOME CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH GOOD SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BUT GFS
INSTABILITY NOT GREAT RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-FEW250. AFTER
18Z, INCREASING SCT150 BKN-OVC250. SURFACE WINDS WEST 10-13G20 KNOTS
DIMINISHING AFTER 01Z TO NORTHWEST AOB 7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
SOME FIRE CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO
LOWER AND AFTERNOON BREEZES DEVELOP. WINDS THURSDAY OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH, WITH A BIT STRONGER WINDS ON FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST SHORT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS,
THOUGH THAT MAY CHANGE IF UPPER TROUGH TIMING BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE
TO STRONGER WINDS. STRONG WIND SHIFT SATURDAY FROM WEST TO NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY EAST BY MID-DAY, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. GUSTY EAST WINDS SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. BACK TO
DRY AND WARM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 7-12% THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN INCREASING TO 18-25%
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOUNTAINS 10-20% THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
INCREASING TO 25-40% SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES EXCELLENT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BECOMING GOOD-VERY GOOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 82 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 80 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 35 60 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 73 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 42 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 79 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 42 84 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 78 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 38 81 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 37 83 39 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 85 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 41 80 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 37 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 36 70 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 37 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 33 73 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 78 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 80 35 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 73 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 77 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 31 79 32 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 75 28 72 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 75 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 42 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 41 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 80 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 74 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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