304
FXUS64 KEPZ 100500
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1100 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS WITH VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DESERT
LOWLANDS.
- STORMS WILL PRODUCE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S; FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE BORDERLAND REGION WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA. WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS,
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL INCREASE STABILITY WHICH WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY MOUNTAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIST CAN AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LOWLANDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT MAY SEE A A BRIEF ISOLATED STORM WITH
SPOTTY RAINFALL. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE LOWLAND DESERTS SEEING VALUES
APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SET UP A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL FACILITATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH
LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS SPLIT ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OR WE TREND BACK TO A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER KELP THROUGH 07Z, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST
OF THURSDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN WITH A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS AT TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR OR AROUND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN LOW.
MIN RH'S TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20%. THE
WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CREATE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A HAZARD WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. VENTILATION
RATES WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 72 98 / 50 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 93 65 94 / 20 20 20 10
LAS CRUCES 68 94 66 96 / 60 10 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 67 95 67 96 / 40 20 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 50 71 50 73 / 40 50 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 95 69 96 / 40 20 0 10
SILVER CITY 63 90 62 89 / 40 40 10 10
DEMING 67 97 66 98 / 50 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 69 95 68 93 / 40 20 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 95 72 97 / 50 10 10 10
DELL CITY 70 97 68 99 / 20 30 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 73 100 72 101 / 30 20 20 10
LOMA LINDA 68 89 66 90 / 50 20 10 10
FABENS 72 97 70 98 / 40 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 70 93 68 96 / 60 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 95 72 97 / 50 10 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 94 67 96 / 50 10 0 10
HATCH 69 97 67 99 / 50 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 71 97 71 98 / 50 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 68 93 66 95 / 40 10 0 10
MAYHILL 57 84 56 87 / 30 70 0 20
MESCALERO 55 83 55 85 / 40 40 0 20
TIMBERON 54 81 54 83 / 40 50 0 20
WINSTON 59 88 58 88 / 30 20 0 20
HILLSBORO 68 93 67 95 / 40 20 10 20
SPACEPORT 67 95 65 96 / 40 10 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 57 89 56 88 / 30 30 10 20
HURLEY 64 92 63 92 / 50 50 20 10
CLIFF 66 97 65 95 / 50 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 64 93 63 91 / 50 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 65 91 64 91 / 40 50 10 20
ANIMAS 69 96 68 94 / 50 20 30 10
HACHITA 68 94 67 93 / 60 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 94 66 91 / 60 30 30 10
CLOVERDALE 64 88 63 85 / 60 30 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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