227
FXUS64 KEPZ 261846
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1146 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
- A FETCH OF SOUTHWEST MOISTURE, AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING, MORE CLOUDS, AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
ON SATURDAY, FAVORING WESTERN AREAS.
- A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON
MONDAY OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE BORDERLAND.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME FILTERS IN THIS EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED
VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM
AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. THE PLUME MOVES OVERHEAD ON SAT,
GIVING US A BETTER SHOT AT RAIN, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST BEFORE IT
LOSES STEAM. IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE ON SAT, ALTHOUGH WINDS DO
BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SAT'S WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 10-20 MPH FROM W-SW, GUSTING TO
30-35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WE'LL START TO SEE A BIG SHIFT IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS THE
APPROACHING TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN NM FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL BRING HEIGHT FALLS AND THUS COOLER TEMPS FOR SUN WITH
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY
FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A STRONG JET,
RESULTING IN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA. WINDS
WILL STAY BREEZY, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR WITH GUSTS AGAIN TO
30-35 MPH SUN AFTERNOON.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER/COLDER
ARRIVES SUN NIGHT. BRISK N/NE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BY MON
AM, ESPECIALLY FOR SIERRA CO AND TULAROSA BASIN AND THEN WEST MTN
SLOPES WHERE GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH CAN BE SEEN. WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE SACS AND POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP MONDAY!
ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A RESURGENCE OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE SOUTH. THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THIS
MOISTURE REACHES ON MON, BUT THERE IS MORE CONSISTENCY ON TEMPS/SNOW
LEVELS BEING LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HIGHS ON MON HAVE TRENDED
DOWN SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE LOWLANDS LIKELY
HOLDING IN THE 40S. SOME MODELS, LIKE THE EURO, KEEP TEMPS IN THE
30S ON MONDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ALMOST ALL
SNOW WITH NO RAIN MIXING IN. SNOW LEVELS PLUMMET TO 3-4KFT FOR
MON, EXCLUDING THE NM BOOTHEEL WHERE THEY ARE NEAR 5KFT. TEMPS
STAY CHILLY THROUGH TUE AS MODELS PROJECT THE CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND, BUT THAT FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.
A PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING IN WILL HANG BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK FLOW ALOFT
MAKES THE FORECAST MORE DIFFICULT IN DETERMINING WHERE THE
MOISTURE AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP ON MON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
NORTH WITH THIS MOISTURE, NOW FOCUSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NM/TX
BORDER. WE HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
RECEIVING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH-END SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HRS FOR HUDSPETH CO (NBM 90TH IS 5-10")
AND SURROUNDING AREAS (3" FOR EL PASO). HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO REMAINS LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUM FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS. EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE NBM CURRENTLY GIVES EL PASO A 30%
CHANCE OF RECEIVING 1" OF SNOW OR MORE ON MON. WINTRY PRECIP IS
MODELED TO BEGIN MON AM, CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS DRIER
CONDITIONS HOLD TO THE NORTH AND WEST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST IS LOW AS THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT IN THE
MODELS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TO SEE WHAT SOLUTION THEY CONVERGE ON.
OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT INTO MIDWEEK WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS GOES AFTER MON. THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DIMINISH FORCING IF THE MOISTURE
LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK, SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
TUE/WED. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW
IN THE PACIFIC IS SWEPT UP INTO THE FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AHEAD OF IT BY THU WITH MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED, FAVORING WESTERN
AREAS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK UNDER THE RIDGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AOB 10KTS FROM SW WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS FOR KTCS. CLOUDS
INCREASE BY THE EVENING WITH CIGS FALLING TO NEAR 10KFT AND
ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY, TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN
AS CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SW. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAINLY OUT WEST. WINDS
INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SAT (10-15 MPH FROM W-SW AT 20-FEET) AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION, RESULTING IN BETTER MIXING AND
VENTILATION. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR SAT OUT WEST.
SUN WILL BE SIMILAR FOR WINDS WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND
COOLER TEMPS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NM. MUCH COOLER FOR MON
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AS THE WINDS SHIFT N-NE THAT MORNING.
THERE'S A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF SNOW ON MON, FAVORING EASTERN
AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTHWEST.
MIN RHS WILL BE 25-45% THROUGH SAT IN THE LOWLANDS, 35-55% IN THE
MTNS; THEN 20-40%. VENT RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR IN THE
LOWLANDS TODAY, GOOD TO VERY GOOD IN THE MTNS; GOOD TO EXCELLENT
THIS WEEKEND, THEN MOSTLY POOR AFTER SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 74 50 66 / 10 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 72 46 63 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 68 42 61 / 10 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 47 70 42 61 / 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 39 48 32 39 / 10 10 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 66 40 59 / 10 20 20 0
SILVER CITY 43 56 35 54 / 20 60 50 10
DEMING 45 69 42 62 / 10 30 20 10
LORDSBURG 44 62 37 58 / 30 60 50 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 72 50 65 / 10 10 10 10
DELL CITY 43 76 45 67 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 78 48 69 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 66 45 59 / 10 10 10 0
FABENS 49 75 48 67 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 48 71 46 63 / 10 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 71 49 64 / 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 45 69 42 62 / 10 20 10 10
HATCH 44 71 42 65 / 10 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 49 71 48 64 / 10 30 20 10
OROGRANDE 48 70 44 62 / 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 43 63 37 54 / 10 10 10 10
MESCALERO 40 60 33 51 / 10 20 30 10
TIMBERON 38 58 33 50 / 10 10 10 10
WINSTON 37 58 27 52 / 10 30 20 0
HILLSBORO 45 65 37 60 / 10 30 20 0
SPACEPORT 42 68 37 60 / 10 20 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 39 56 29 53 / 20 60 60 10
HURLEY 43 60 35 57 / 20 50 40 10
CLIFF 40 61 32 59 / 30 70 60 10
MULE CREEK 40 57 31 55 / 40 80 50 10
FAYWOOD 46 61 37 57 / 10 40 30 10
ANIMAS 46 65 42 60 / 30 50 40 10
HACHITA 45 66 42 60 / 10 30 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 68 43 63 / 20 40 30 10
CLOVERDALE 47 59 42 57 / 30 50 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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