983
FXUS64 KEPZ 230433
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1033 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS ABOVE
100 DEGREES. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
- VERY DRY EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE SOME MOISTURE GIVES THE HIGH
TERRAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
SUBTROPICAL HIGH ALOFT CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE EL PASO REGION
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RUN QUITE LOW AS WELL, WITH THIS EVENING'S
00Z SOUNDING AT KEPZ ONLY RECORDING 0.49" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME GROWTH OVER THE SOUTHERN NM HIGH
TERRAIN, ONLY RESULTING IN VERY ISOLATED (10-20% COVERAGE) SHOWERS
AND VIRGA BOMBS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS. LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
MAIN HEADLINE CONTINUES TO BE HEAT. LOWLAND TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH OR SURPASS 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO STAY THAT
WAY THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL BE TOMORROW
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (AND MOST OF THE
LOWLAND I-10/I-25/US-54 CORRIDORS REACHING 104-108 DEGREES. WHILE
THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE (ONLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL), IT'S STILL IMPACTFUL HEAT. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR EL PASO AND THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SHORTWAVES (ALONG WITH STRONGER FLOW) MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES MIDWEEK WILL FLATTEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND NUDGE IT
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
"COOL" A FEW DEGREES, THOUGH STILL LIKELY ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR EL
PASO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW IN MOISTURE
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN (BLACK RANGE, SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS), WITH MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS ONLY SEEING ISOLATED (15-25%) ACTION. STRONG WEST FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND AND RESUME THE
PATTERN OF DRY AND HOT (BUT NEAR NORMAL) WEATHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT, WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 280-320 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ACROSS SW NM AND VRB AOB 5 KNOTS AT KELP. AFTERNOON CU GROWTH
OVER MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING FEW-SCT120 AT TAF SITES.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, GRADUALLY DRYING
OUT THE FUELS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH JUST
THE VERY LOW RH SUGGEST ELEVATED CONDITIONS. ERCS ARE AT OR
EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE TODAY (SACRAMENTO MTNS A FEW DAYS
LATER), AND ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE 95TH PERCENTILE BY THIS
WEEKEND. WINDS DO PICK UP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING FIRE
CONDITIONS TO NEAR CRITICAL AND POSSIBLY INTO RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...5-10% THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 12-17% THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GILA/BLACK RANGE...8-13% THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THEN 10-20% THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN
MTNS...10-17% THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 15-25% THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THEN
EXCELLENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 106 79 106 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 101 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 104 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 104 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 104 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 99 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 68 106 70 107 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 103 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 105 77 105 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 67 104 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 107 76 107 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 107 75 107 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 104 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 104 78 105 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 104 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 107 71 107 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 106 75 107 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 102 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 94 61 92 / 0 10 0 20
MESCALERO 57 93 60 93 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 57 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 61 96 64 94 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 69 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 66 104 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 99 61 99 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 65 102 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 63 104 67 104 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 62 100 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 67 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 68 104 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 67 103 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 65 99 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE
FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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