195
FXUS64 KEPZ 101716
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1116 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 932 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS WITH VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DESERT
LOWLANDS.
- DRY AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK H
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
STARTING TODAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY, THE BORDERLAND WILL BE TRENDING
TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT
OVER THE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SURROUNDING THE
HIGH WILL BRING IN DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE ROCKIES. WHILE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS FOR LOWLAND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY, WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY THE AREA
MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK FOR THE REGION, WITH
SEVERAL LOWLAND LOCATIONS RUNNING NORTH OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE BOTH DAYS--THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY EVEN REACH THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE STARTING SUNDAY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL PUSH THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH EASTWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL FACILITATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS--HOW MUCH RAIN THE
LOWLANDS WILL GET IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. INCREASED MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WITH LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS SPLIT ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OR WE TREND BACK TO A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE OBSERVATION PERIOD. -TSRA COVERAGE
WILL BE REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY AND NONE OF THE FOUR TAF SITES ARE
LIKELY TO SEE MANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, IF AT ALL. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE PERIOD, AND AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE ROCKIES, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 932 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE AREA MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE ROCKIES. MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO THE MID TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MIN RHS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE 20% AREA-WIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. VENTILATION
RATES WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 97 73 99 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 95 67 97 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 98 68 98 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 97 69 99 / 10 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 50 74 54 75 / 0 0 0 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 97 72 96 / 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 63 90 63 90 / 10 0 10 20
DEMING 67 99 69 99 / 20 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 68 95 69 95 / 10 0 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 72 97 74 99 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 99 70 100 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 100 74 101 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 91 67 93 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 70 99 72 100 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 69 96 71 98 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 98 74 99 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 97 69 98 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 68 100 70 101 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 98 74 99 / 20 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 66 96 67 97 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 87 59 88 / 10 10 0 50
MESCALERO 55 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 54 83 56 85 / 10 0 0 20
WINSTON 58 89 61 88 / 0 0 10 60
HILLSBORO 68 95 70 95 / 0 0 10 20
SPACEPORT 66 98 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 89 57 88 / 10 10 10 40
HURLEY 63 93 65 93 / 10 0 10 10
CLIFF 64 96 64 96 / 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 63 92 63 91 / 10 10 20 10
FAYWOOD 65 92 66 92 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 68 95 68 94 / 20 10 10 0
HACHITA 68 94 69 95 / 20 0 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 93 66 93 / 20 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 63 86 63 86 / 20 10 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page