373
FXUS64 KEPZ 250450
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1050 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 949 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- STORM CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIMITED
MOSTLY TO HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- TYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW, WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN CULPRIT IN ALL THIS
WEATHER HAS BEEN A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA AND A SURFACE TROUGH (CONVERGENCE ZONE) ORIENTED
NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THROW IN SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH AND YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE REASON WE ARE STUCK IN THIS PATTERN IS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST TO OUR EAST. ON SUNDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND THAT
WILL HELP PUSH THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
IN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES, BUT I CAN'T RULE OUT THAT EL PASO
OR DONA ANA COUNTIES WILL SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREE BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT NOT AFTER GIVING ONE MORE ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL COOL A COUPLE MORE DEGREES FROM SUNDAY'S HIGHS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. LATE ON WEDNESDAY AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST, WILL BEGIN TO TURN OUR FLOW
ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE A RETURN
OF THE MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
THURSDAY AND THEN A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(PWS) WILL APPROACH ONE INCH BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH IS
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO THEY MAY BE A THREAT
FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WE HAD AN ACTIVE WEATHER NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE TONIGHT. THE FEW REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS. WE WILL
HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA
(KDMN, KTCS AND KLRU) HAVING UNLIMITED CEILINGS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. KELP WILL BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY'S NEXT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW I THINK THE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF KELP, SO
I HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM IN TONIGHT'S TAFS. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE WHAT WEATHER TRENDS BRING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CONTINUE ON WITH THE FIRE THREAT BEING LOW AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
EAST OF THE RGV. A COUPLE DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER THEN A RETURN TO A
MORE MOIST PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH RH'S AT OR ABOVE 20%. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD SUN AND DROP TO
POOR TO FAIR FOR MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 77 58 74 / 60 20 40 10
SIERRA BLANCA 53 73 52 71 / 80 10 50 50
LAS CRUCES 52 73 53 71 / 40 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 53 72 51 71 / 90 40 50 20
CLOUDCROFT 40 52 39 53 / 100 40 50 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 69 50 68 / 20 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 43 65 43 68 / 0 10 0 0
DEMING 50 74 50 73 / 0 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 72 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 76 59 73 / 50 10 30 10
DELL CITY 56 73 54 71 / 90 40 70 70
FORT HANCOCK 59 82 59 79 / 80 10 50 40
LOMA LINDA 52 69 52 67 / 90 20 60 40
FABENS 58 80 57 77 / 60 10 50 30
SANTA TERESA 55 75 55 72 / 50 10 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 75 56 72 / 80 30 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 53 73 52 71 / 60 30 10 10
HATCH 53 75 52 74 / 20 20 10 0
COLUMBUS 55 77 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 53 72 52 70 / 90 30 50 20
MAYHILL 46 61 45 64 / 100 50 60 40
MESCALERO 45 63 43 63 / 90 40 40 20
TIMBERON 42 59 42 60 / 100 60 70 40
WINSTON 40 63 37 64 / 10 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 69 47 69 / 10 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 70 49 69 / 40 30 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 64 36 68 / 0 20 0 0
HURLEY 43 68 43 70 / 0 10 0 0
CLIFF 46 71 45 74 / 0 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 67 46 68 / 0 10 0 0
ANIMAS 48 75 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 49 75 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 70 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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