339
FXUS64 KEPZ 211722 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1122 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..CORRECTION MADE TO ADVISORY SECTION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS ABOVE
100 DEGREES. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
- VERY DRY EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE SOME MOISTURE GIVES THE HIGH
TERRAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
MID/UPPER HIGH CENTER FIRMLY IN PLACE NOW OVER THE SONORAN AND
CHIHUAHUA DESERTS OF MEXICO WITH RIDGES EXTENDING EAST AND WEST
FROM THE CENTER. SOME VERY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO.
DRIEST AIR WITH RESPECT TO PW IS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER OUR CWA OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS. PWS RANGE FROM .30 INCHES NORTH TO .70 INCHES FAR
SOUTHEAST, WHILE 500MB TEMPS ARE VERY WARM AT AROUND -1C TO -2C
DEGREES. LITTLE CHANGE IN ANY OF THESE FEATURES THROUGH TUESDAY,
MEANING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS, LET ALONE ANY CHANCE OF RAIN.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH LOWLAND HIGHS TODAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA (105 DEG) AND MONDAY JUST AT CRITERIA FOR MUCH
OF THE LOWLANDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUBTLE CHANGES BEGIN IN THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER HIGH LOSES ITS ELLIPTICAL SHAPE AND BECOMES MORE CIRCULAR,
THUS ALLOWING SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN. AT MID
LEVELS, 500MB TEMPS COOL DOWN TO AROUND -5C TO -7C DEGREES,
ENABLING SLIGHT INSTABILITY OF THE AIRMASS TO REDEVELOP. THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TOP OF THE HIGH MAY ALSO ALLOW WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. ALL THIS TO SAY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND TO THE LOWLANDS TOWARD EVENING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE OF CLOUD BUILDUPS AND
CHANCE OF RAIN, HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
LOOK TO BE THE PEAK HEATING, WITH LOWLAND HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM
103-108 DEG. WILL LIKELY EXTEND HEAT ADVISORY INTO TUE/WED WITH
ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH SINKS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MEXICO, ALLOWING THE POLAR JET TO DROP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR, ENDING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS WILL ALSO
LIKELY BRING SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS EACH DAY, ELEVATING FIRE
CONCERNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SKC-SCT250. FEW
AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. SURFACE
WINDS WEST 10-15G23 KNOTS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS AFTER
03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AHEAD WILL KEEP
FIRE CONDITIONS ELEVATED, AS HUMIDITY AND FUEL MOISTURE DECREASE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. ERCS ARE AT OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE (ZONE 113
SHOULD REACH THIS LEVEL BY MID WEEK), AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE FORECAST DOES SHOW SATURDAY/SUNDAY WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY AND PUSHING FIRE CONDITIONS TO NEAR CRITICAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...5-10% THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 10-16% THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS...5-12% THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 15-25%
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 105 76 106 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 102 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 103 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 102 70 105 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 104 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 97 62 99 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 67 104 69 106 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 101 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 67 103 68 105 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 106 74 108 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 71 105 72 107 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 104 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 103 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 62 103 66 104 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 63 107 67 107 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 105 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 62 101 65 103 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 59 92 58 94 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 57 92 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 56 89 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 58 97 61 96 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 66 103 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 103 64 103 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 51 98 53 100 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 62 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 53 102 56 104 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 98 52 100 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 100 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 102 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 102 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 102 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 64 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT
BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO
MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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