071
FXUS64 KEPZ 142314
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
514 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
- A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES, INCREASING MOISTURE, AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY, ACROSS THE WIDER AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
AFTER NEARLY HITTING 100F AT THE EL PASO AIRPORT ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WE ARE FINALLY SEEING A PATTERN CHANGE TO NOT AS HOT
(TOO EARLY TO CALL IT COOLER), WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN.
CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US DRY AND HOT THIS
SUMMER HAS MOVED OFF AND IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PULL UP MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE STEADILY FALLING SO
THAT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
(GASP) A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. THESE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GIVE THE LOWLANDS HIGHS IN THE 80'S FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WE HAVE NOT SEEN CONSISTENTLY SINCE EARLY JUNE.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL GIVE US BETTER RAIN CHANCES, BUT IT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW'S) WILL INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 1.1 TO 1.3 WHICH IS
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW THE MAIN THREAT
FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE GILA REGION ON TUESDAY, BUT IT MAY
EXPAND TO INCLUDE LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON WEDNESDAY
AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY IS A LITTLE
MORE IN DOUBT AS THE EXTENDED GFS DRIES US OUT, WHILE THE EXTENDED
ECMWF CONTINUES THE INFLUX AND MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
SCT090 SCT-BKN250. SCATTERED OVC060CB 4-6SM TSRA, MAINLY WEST OF
THE RG VALLEY, WITH THE STORMS MORE ISOLATED RG VALLEY EAST. GUSTY
WINDS OF 35-45 KNOTS NEAR STORMS, ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. A FEW
STORMS COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND 10Z. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, WITH KLRU/KELP CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
WE HAVE SEEN A PATTERN SWITCH AWAY FROM WARM/HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TO NOT AS HOT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING A POSSIBILITY IN THE GILA REGION. MIN
RH'S FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
30% AREA WIDE, WITH EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES AT NIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL STAY WELL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. WE COULD SEE SOME
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ESPECIALLY TONIGHT FROM AREA THUNDERSTORMS.
VENTILATION RATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOKS FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 94 70 91 / 30 10 70 40
SIERRA BLANCA 66 92 64 90 / 20 30 50 30
LAS CRUCES 66 91 65 89 / 40 20 70 50
ALAMOGORDO 66 91 66 90 / 50 20 60 60
CLOUDCROFT 51 69 49 67 / 40 50 60 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 87 66 85 / 60 40 60 70
SILVER CITY 61 83 60 80 / 40 60 70 80
DEMING 66 91 64 88 / 50 20 60 50
LORDSBURG 67 87 66 84 / 50 30 70 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 93 70 90 / 30 10 70 40
DELL CITY 69 96 67 93 / 10 20 60 40
FORT HANCOCK 72 99 71 97 / 30 30 60 40
LOMA LINDA 66 87 65 85 / 30 10 60 40
FABENS 70 95 69 93 / 30 10 70 40
SANTA TERESA 68 92 67 89 / 30 10 70 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 92 70 90 / 40 30 70 50
JORNADA RANGE 66 91 65 88 / 50 30 60 60
HATCH 67 92 66 90 / 40 40 70 60
COLUMBUS 70 92 68 89 / 50 20 70 40
OROGRANDE 65 90 65 89 / 30 20 70 60
MAYHILL 57 82 55 79 / 30 70 50 80
MESCALERO 55 80 53 78 / 50 50 60 90
TIMBERON 54 79 53 77 / 20 30 60 70
WINSTON 56 79 56 76 / 40 80 50 90
HILLSBORO 66 86 65 84 / 50 50 70 70
SPACEPORT 64 89 64 87 / 60 30 60 60
LAKE ROBERTS 56 82 56 79 / 40 70 60 90
HURLEY 62 85 61 82 / 40 50 70 70
CLIFF 64 89 64 86 / 40 50 70 90
MULE CREEK 62 84 62 81 / 40 40 70 80
FAYWOOD 64 85 63 82 / 40 50 70 70
ANIMAS 67 88 66 85 / 60 40 70 80
HACHITA 66 88 64 85 / 50 40 70 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 88 64 85 / 50 50 70 70
CLOVERDALE 63 82 62 81 / 50 50 70 80
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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