759
FXUS64 KEPZ 161806
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1206 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH TODAY BRINGING CONTINUED BREEZY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TODAY, WE WILL SEE OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR
WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO THE LOW 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
AREA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS WITH THE SACS
REACHING THE LOW 20S IN SOME PARTS DURING TOMORROW'S EARLY MORNING.
THESE TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH
AT TIMES IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH
THE GREATEST WIND THREAT IN SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY ACCORDING TO THE
SIGNATURES IN THE RRFS. A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY NEAR THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA, NM BOOTHEEL, AND LUNA COUNTY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
TONIGHT.
WINDS SUBSIDE AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER SLIM FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GREATER CHANCES FAVORING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST. THIS LOW
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH AREAWIDE
RAIN AND PWS REACHING AROUND 1 INCH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
MIDWEEK RAIN IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
WINDS OUT IN WESTERN NM (LIKE KDMN) AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN STAYS
QUITE BREEZY TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BECOME BREEZY AS WELL BUT NOT TO
THE LEVEL THAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT OR TODAY. BREEZIER WINDS OUT IN
KDMN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A COLD FRONT USHERED IN STRONG WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST THIS
MORNING. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY, BEFORE SLOWING THIS EVENING. MIN RH'S TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN
AREA MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL START BOTH A WARMING TREND AND
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BACK IN
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MIN RH'S ABOVE 30% ACROSS
THE AREA. VENTILATION RATES TODAY WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AND THEN A LITTLE LOWER ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 43 64 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 35 60 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 39 62 43 65 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 37 62 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 47 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 62 46 65 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 37 59 43 61 / 0 0 30 40
DEMING 41 64 45 66 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 43 62 48 65 / 0 0 40 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 64 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 37 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 44 69 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 56 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 43 67 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 42 63 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 38 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 39 65 45 69 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 45 64 48 68 / 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 37 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 26 57 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 26 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 25 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 31 56 38 60 / 0 0 10 20
HILLSBORO 38 61 44 63 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 35 63 43 65 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 32 62 38 64 / 0 0 30 30
HURLEY 37 60 42 63 / 0 0 10 30
CLIFF 43 69 49 69 / 0 0 40 40
MULE CREEK 40 64 46 64 / 0 0 30 40
FAYWOOD 37 59 43 62 / 0 0 0 30
ANIMAS 45 63 48 67 / 0 0 30 30
HACHITA 42 62 46 65 / 0 0 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 64 46 67 / 0 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 41 60 45 66 / 0 0 30 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWLANDS
OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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