240
FXUS64 KEPZ 021758
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1158 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE, FROM THE EAST, RESIDING OVER THE
BORDERLAND TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING THE BORDERLAND REGION
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
- BEGINNING SUNDAY, AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMER
AND DRIER PATTERN TO THE REGION. LOWLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS OF THE YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 833 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
WE STARTED OUR TYPICALLY HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR, JUNE, WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN FROM
THE EAST, TO PAIR THAT HEAT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE RIO
GRANDE EASTWARD. TONIGHT, WE SEE A CONTINUATION OF EASTERLY WINDS,
IMPORTING MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. THIS MEANS BOLSTERING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S AND 50S, AND PWATS ABOVE 0.75" FOR ALL
AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND AT LEAST 0.50" FOR ALL BUT THE
BOOTHEEL. THAT MEANS THE DAYTIME WARMING, COUPLED WITH LIGHT
SURFACE CONVERGENCE, AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE, WITH A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WILL ALL SERVE TO MAKE FOR A
DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD, AND WETTER EAST OF
THE RIO.
WE REPEAT THE SAME SCENARIO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE EAST. THIS KEEPS OUR
ATMOSPHERE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
LIKELY STILL ON SATURDAY LOOK TO DELIVER DAILY ROUND OF AREA WIDE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WE SIT UNDER A SLOW PASSING TROUGH
AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THE BEST DAYS FOR STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK,
IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE A BIT REDUCED AND MORE
FOCUSED SOUTH AND BACK EAST.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY, AND CONTINUING SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES EAST, AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FORM
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL NOT BE A FULL SWEEP OUT OF MOISTURE,
BUT WE WILL TREND SHARPLY DRIER, AND MORE STABLE, TO SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE STORM CHANCES, AND LIMIT THEM MORE TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. IN
ADDITION, WE ARE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY, AND LIKELY TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SOME
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SEVERE WIND GUSTS (58+ MPH).
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WHICH
COULD CREATE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES. KELP HAS THE BEST CHANCES
TO SEE STORMS LIKE THIS BUT RECENT HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS
TO STAY FURTHER EAST OF TERMINALS. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A
LARGE OUTFLOW TO TRACK EAST TO WEST AROUND 5-7PM TONIGHT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH KELP, KLRU AND EVEN KDMN TONIGHT. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA, WITH STORM CHANCES
DIMINISHING
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE AND IN AREA MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, WHICH COME MOVE OFF A GREAT
DISTANCE FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH'S TODAY WILL BE
DIVIDED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS IN WEST
OF THE RIVER AND 20% OR HIGHER EAST OF THE RIVER. THOSE HIGHER MIN
RH'S WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WE WILL BE DRIER FOR THE COMING WEEKEND WITH MIN RH'S IN
THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF TODAY, WINDS LOOK TO STAY WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
VENT RATES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 91 67 89 / 20 30 40 20
SIERRA BLANCA 60 84 58 83 / 60 40 50 40
LAS CRUCES 61 89 59 87 / 10 30 40 20
ALAMOGORDO 61 87 61 86 / 40 30 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 46 65 45 65 / 60 60 30 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 87 62 86 / 40 40 40 30
SILVER CITY 56 83 54 82 / 0 60 30 60
DEMING 62 93 59 91 / 0 40 50 20
LORDSBURG 63 90 60 90 / 0 30 40 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 89 65 88 / 20 30 40 20
DELL CITY 60 85 59 86 / 60 30 40 30
FORT HANCOCK 66 92 64 91 / 40 40 40 30
LOMA LINDA 61 82 59 81 / 30 30 40 30
FABENS 65 92 63 91 / 20 40 40 10
SANTA TERESA 63 88 61 87 / 10 30 40 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 88 68 87 / 30 30 40 20
JORNADA RANGE 62 88 60 86 / 20 50 60 20
HATCH 62 91 61 90 / 20 40 50 20
COLUMBUS 67 92 63 91 / 0 20 30 20
OROGRANDE 61 85 60 84 / 40 20 40 20
MAYHILL 51 74 51 75 / 70 60 50 80
MESCALERO 50 75 49 75 / 60 60 30 70
TIMBERON 48 71 47 71 / 60 40 50 60
WINSTON 52 79 51 79 / 20 70 40 50
HILLSBORO 61 86 60 84 / 20 60 40 40
SPACEPORT 58 87 58 86 / 30 50 60 20
LAKE ROBERTS 53 84 51 84 / 10 80 40 70
HURLEY 57 86 54 84 / 0 40 30 50
CLIFF 57 91 56 90 / 0 60 30 50
MULE CREEK 55 87 54 86 / 0 50 20 50
FAYWOOD 59 85 57 83 / 10 40 40 40
ANIMAS 61 91 59 91 / 0 30 30 20
HACHITA 62 90 58 89 / 0 40 50 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 91 59 90 / 0 20 30 20
CLOVERDALE 58 87 56 86 / 0 20 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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