698
FXUS64 KEPZ 151726
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1126 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 927 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 927 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE NORTH WIND DOTH BLOW THIS EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BUT ONCE THE SUN NEARS THE HORIZON,
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND INCREASE DRASTICALLY, FOR A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT OF FORMIDABLE STRENGTH WILL REACH OUR AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STEMS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPLITTING INTO TWO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECOND
CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS ARIZONA, AND A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FILLING THE VOID THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
HAS LEFT, BRINGING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT.
3
THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SHALL REACH THE EL PASO/LAS CRUCES METRO
AREAS THIS EVENING. WITH THIS COLD FRONT IS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BRING SUSTAINED EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR OTERO, HUDSPETH, AND EL PASO
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN HIDALGO AND GRANT COUNTIES,
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS
UNDER A WIND ADVISORY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY WITH THESE STRONG WINDS IN EL PASO
AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES IN TEXAS, AND SOUTHERN DONA ANA AND LUNA
COUNTIES IN NEW MEXICO, BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. THE PLAYAS
IN HIDALGO COUNTY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE BLOWING DUST ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION WILL PLUNGE TO AT LEAST 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT THANKS TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE A STRUGGLE FOR
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE LOWLANDS.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS BOTH ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS LIKELY WE SHALL NOT HAVE SNOW
OR EVEN RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS, FOR A SURGE IN MOISTURE IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR
FOR OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE THE WINDS DIE DOWN SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR
STEADY CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE IN
THE BAJA BY THIS POINT AND WEAKENED ENOUGH TO BE FOLDED INTO A
PASSING RIDGE, BRINGING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ANIMAS MOUNTAINS IN THE NEW MEXICO
BOOTHEEL WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND
A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
START MONDAY AFTERNOON. A NEW PACIFIC TROUGH WILL HELP FACILITATE
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH HOW MUCH
RAIN THE REGION WILL GET THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 927 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
CEILINGS WILL BE CLEAR FOR THE OBSERVATION PERIOD, BUT WIND WILL
BE THE CONCERN FOR THE REGION AS LOW-END BREEZY WINDS FROM THE
NORTH SWITCH TO THE EAST AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND BLOW INTO TOMORROW, WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-35 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 50+ KNOTS. BLDU IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. KELP AND KDMN HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS, AND KLRU AND KTCS'S WINDS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT STILL QUITE BLUSTERY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 927 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
LOW END BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL DEFINE THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON. MIN RHS IN THE LOWLANDS ARE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER TEENS
AND IN THE UPPER-20S-TO-LOW-30'S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A DRASTIC
CHANGE IS AFOOT THIS EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM
THE NORTHEAST, SHIFTING WINDS EASTWARD AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES
TO AT LEAST 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM 25-35 MPH ARE WIDE, WITH
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN RHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS, AND FALL TO THE 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP AND WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN ON SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 54 65 45 64 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 58 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 65 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 68 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 27 41 23 46 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 66 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 61 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 67 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 65 45 61 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 64 48 63 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 63 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 54 67 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 45 56 37 56 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 66 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 64 44 62 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 68 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 67 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 70 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 66 46 64 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 34 50 28 56 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 33 52 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 33 50 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 58 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 64 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 61 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 64 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 71 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 67 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 63 40 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 53 64 46 62 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 64 44 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 63 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 59 42 58 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN
BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES
BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-OTERO MESA-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA
BASIN-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-NORTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
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