617
FXUS64 KEPZ 230516
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1116 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- LATE-SEPTEMBER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CAPABLE OF FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, WHICH
WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LOWERING THREAT OF
FLOODING. MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AND WARMER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
OUR BIG HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVER THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH WED AM WITH STORM MOTION GENERALLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD (0Z RAOB
PWS RECORDED 1.29") AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST,
WITH THAT PATTERN HOLDING STEADY THROUGH WED. FOR TONIGHT, WE'LL BE
UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
THAT'S OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ADDITIONALLY, VORT MAXES/EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PUSHING IN FROM CHIHUAHUA WOULD PROVIDE MORE FORCING FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE HREF AND REFS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH A CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT INTO
SOUTHERN LUNA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION IS MODELED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH DONA ANA AND
SIERRA COUNTIES EARLY WED AM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY AVOID
EL PASO, BUT THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT IN THE CAMS IS TOO CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN DATA FOCUSES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OVER CENTRAL DONA ANA THROUGH SE SIERRA COUNTIES. MIDNIGHT-6AM IS
THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME TO SEE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR DONA ANA AND SIERRA WITH
PMM SHOWING 2-3" IN THE LAS CRUCES VICINITY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
AMOUNTS TOWARDS T OR C (1-2"). HIGH-END RAINFALL SHOWS 4" OR MORE IN
ISOLATED AREAS.
WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED EARLY WED AM WITH ISOLATED CONSIDERABLE OR
EVEN CATASTROPHIC FLOODING. ARROYOS, SENSITIVE CANYONS, BURN SCARS
(LATER WED), AND URBAN AREAS ARE MOST VULNERABLE. EVEN RISES ON THE
RIO GRANDE CAN BE SEEN WITH MINOR FLOOD STAGE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE HIGHER END RAINFALL COMES TO PASS. MOST OF THIS RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY END UP IN THE RIO GRANDE OR SIERRA CO RESERVOIRS.
AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE DIVIDE AND E OF THE 54 CORRIDOR ARE
FORECAST TO AVOID THE WORST OF THE RAIN THROUGH WED AM WITH MORE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHIFTS NE DURING THE DAY WED WITH A
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX, BUT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE STILL
FORECAST. LESS CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND RAIN AMOUNTS WED PM, BUT
GENERALLY FAVORING SIERRA AND OTERO COUNTIES. ALL AREAS HAVE AT
LEAST A LOW RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH WED NIGHT, DECREASING OUT WEST.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2" IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS FOR WED PM.
FOR THU, THE FLOOD THREAT FOCUSES OUT EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
WEST OF THE RGV. PWS REMAIN AT LEAST 50% ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE
RGV WITH A GENERAL LOW RISK OF FLOODING AND MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THERE'S A CONCERNING QPF BULLS-EYE OVER THE SALT BURN
SCAR ON THE 18Z REFS THU AFTERNOON, SO THAT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.
MOISTURE LEVELS AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE BY SAT AND PWS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL. AREA MTNS AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR STORMS.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE
PACIFIC, POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM. PWS SHOULD
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW-MEDIUM STORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE TO
END THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR WED (LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 70S)
DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. WE'LL GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY GUSTY
OUTFLOWS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULDN'T PRODUCE GUSTS MUCH MORE
THAN 40 MPH SINCE WE'RE SO SATURATED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WIDESPREAD -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TS ACROSS THE AREA TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE OF TS GENERALLY 7-10Z, A BIT LATER FOR KTCS.
IFR VIS MAY BE REACHED IN HEAVIER STORMS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS. CONTINUED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AM, THEN MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATER IN PERIOD ONCE
THE RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NE. LOW CHANCE OF TS WED AFTERNOON. WINDS
NEAR 10KTS UNTIL ABOUT 12Z FROM N-NE, THEN AOB 8KTS FROM NE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S TODAY
BEFORE RISING TO THE 60S-80S WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK RANGE. 20FT
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH TODAY. VENTILATION
RATES WILL BE POOR THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 74 60 78 / 80 90 50 50
SIERRA BLANCA 61 75 57 78 / 50 90 50 60
LAS CRUCES 61 71 57 75 / 100 100 60 40
ALAMOGORDO 62 74 59 77 / 80 100 80 70
CLOUDCROFT 47 53 45 57 / 90 100 90 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 68 57 74 / 100 100 70 50
SILVER CITY 56 67 52 73 / 90 100 40 30
DEMING 61 73 57 77 / 90 90 40 30
LORDSBURG 61 72 58 77 / 80 80 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 73 61 78 / 80 90 50 50
DELL CITY 65 77 60 79 / 60 90 60 60
FORT HANCOCK 68 81 64 85 / 50 90 50 60
LOMA LINDA 60 69 56 73 / 60 90 60 50
FABENS 66 77 62 81 / 60 90 50 50
SANTA TERESA 63 72 60 77 / 90 90 50 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 72 61 77 / 100 90 70 60
JORNADA RANGE 62 70 58 75 / 100 100 70 60
HATCH 62 73 59 78 / 100 100 60 50
COLUMBUS 63 75 61 79 / 100 90 30 30
OROGRANDE 63 72 60 75 / 80 90 70 60
MAYHILL 53 64 52 70 / 100 100 90 70
MESCALERO 52 64 50 68 / 90 100 80 80
TIMBERON 50 61 48 65 / 90 100 90 70
WINSTON 54 61 50 68 / 100 100 50 50
HILLSBORO 59 68 56 74 / 100 100 60 50
SPACEPORT 60 69 56 74 / 100 100 70 50
LAKE ROBERTS 53 65 49 73 / 100 90 50 40
HURLEY 57 69 52 73 / 90 90 40 30
CLIFF 60 72 57 80 / 90 90 40 30
MULE CREEK 57 70 54 76 / 90 80 40 30
FAYWOOD 59 67 56 73 / 100 100 50 40
ANIMAS 62 74 60 78 / 80 80 20 10
HACHITA 61 73 59 77 / 90 80 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 76 59 79 / 80 80 30 20
CLOVERDALE 58 73 56 77 / 70 70 40 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHERN
GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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