518
FXUS64 KEPZ 272329
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
529 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIMITED
MOSTLY TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK IN THE
LOWLANDS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A BACK DOOR (EAST TO WEST) COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT HAS GOTTEN RID OF OUR RECORD
SETTING HEAT, THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT BROUGHT IN SOME
STRONG GUSTY EAST WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. THE WINDS AND DUST
WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING, BUT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS COULD
LINGER NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CLINGING ON TO CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL GIVE US GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
(FOR LATE MARCH) THIS WEEKEND. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND WE WILL SEE HIGHS ON SUNDAY
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW UP
SOME MOISTURE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AMOUNTS, BUT THERE JUST DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY
DRY. WE WILL BE A LITTLE UNSTABLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY
GONE, WE WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FLOW WILL GIVE US DAILY AFTERNOON BREEZY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL RUN 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NO REALLY HOT DAYS, NO REALLY STRONG
WINDS, JUST A NICE WARM START TO APRIL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
OUT OF THE EAST AT 15-25 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 25-35
KNOTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME, SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER 06Z. BREEZY WINDS
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES FEW TO SCT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THAT HAS
FLIPPED OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS LOOK
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WILL SLOW THIS
EVENING. WE COULD SEE CONTINUED ELEVATED WINDS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT. MIN RH'S ON SATURDAY WILL BE A HIGHER
DUE TO THE COOLER AIR. MIN RH'S ON SATURDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
20% ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE LESS WINDS, BUT THE MIN
RH'S ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME DRY LIGHTNING. WE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS
MOST AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. WE COULD APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 73 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 36 70 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 40 70 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 37 72 46 84 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 24 56 38 65 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 42 72 50 84 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 37 67 46 78 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 41 72 47 85 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 42 71 46 83 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 45 73 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 36 72 42 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 40 77 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 68 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 42 76 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 42 72 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 72 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 37 72 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 38 75 45 87 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 44 73 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 40 71 46 84 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 27 70 42 77 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 27 65 39 76 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 28 61 40 73 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 29 67 37 77 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 38 70 47 82 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 35 71 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 35 71 42 79 / 0 0 0 20
HURLEY 35 67 45 81 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 40 76 45 85 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 40 73 45 82 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 37 67 47 80 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 43 72 47 83 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 40 70 45 83 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 42 73 49 84 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 41 71 52 80 / 0 0 0 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR OTERO MESA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TULAROSA
BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SIERRA COUNTY
LAKES.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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