036
FXUS64 KEPZ 191126
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH SPANNING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNDER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
LOW END BREEZINESS EACH AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-20 MPH
SUSTAINED. A COLD FRONT IS BARRELING DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND LOOKS TO REACH THE EDGES OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS BY
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE AREA DUE
TO DRY SW FLOW PICKING UP AGAIN BY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT, HOW FAR WEST WILL THE MOISTURE MAKE IT? GFS SAYS
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE HUDSPETH COUNTY/EL PASO COUNTY LINE,
BUT THE NAM PUSHES THIS MOISTURE AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF OUR AREA COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE DRYLINE RACES EASTWARD AGAIN. MUCH OF
THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR EAST, BUT PERHAPS WE COULD GET SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF THAT BOUNDARY IF MOISTURE STAYS IN THE
AREA LONGER THAN FORECAST.
A CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO FORM OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA THURSDAY,
WHICH KEEPS THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE AREA KEEPS LOW END BREEZINESS WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN IN HUDSPETH COUNTY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
SOMEWHAT BETTER AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE CUTOFF LOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BENEATH SKC-FEW250. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW (210-240) THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN AFTER DARK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY, TOPPING OUT AROUND
15 MPH ALTHOUGH LOW LANDS ACROSS SIERRA COUNTY WILL TOP OUT CLOSER
TO 20 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LINCOLN /
CAPITAN NF AND EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE A FRONT / DRY LINE
WILL MEANDER. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST OUR SOUTHEAST. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT AS WELL EAST OF THE FRONT, BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE VERY LOW UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 91 64 88 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 57 87 56 82 / 0 10 10 20
LAS CRUCES 55 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 88 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 66 43 63 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 79 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 89 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 56 88 56 87 / 0 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 62 94 62 90 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 59 83 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 60 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 57 88 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 55 90 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 87 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 76 47 75 / 0 10 10 10
MESCALERO 48 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 46 73 44 73 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 46 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 86 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 81 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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