170
FXUS64 KEPZ 072320
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 406 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
- A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AREA-WIDE ON TODAY, THEN ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
WE WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE, BUT NOT VERY IMPACTFUL WEATHER
PATTERN THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A SLUG OF
MOISTURE AND A VORT MAX THAT WILL HELP GIVE US SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY. WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 9,000 FEET. RAIN TOTALS BELOW 9,000 FEET WILL BE
LIGHT, WITH MOST SPOTS GETTING A TRACE OR LESS OF RAIN, BUT A FEW
SPOTS GETTING 0.10. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH SO SUNDAY LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE
REGION. ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY
BEGINS TO MAKE ITS TURN TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL TRY AND SPILL
SOME MOISTURE TO THE NORTH, SO WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FORECAST TRENDS KEEP LOWERING THE RAIN CHANCES AND RAIN TOTALS.
IF THE TREND CONTINUES, WE MAY NEED TO PULL THE RAIN CHANCES ALL
TOGETHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FOR WEDNESDAY, WE WILL HAVE
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE DASH ACROSS THE AREA GIVING US
NICE WARM DRY WEATHER. THEN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL GIVE US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE SOME FLAVOR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RUN 3 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, THEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK, WE WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK,
WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WE WILL HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE, BUT STILL RUN 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 406 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VCSH WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST ACROSS WEST TX AND SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SKIES REMAIN SCT AT 7-10 KFT AND BKN AT 10-15 KFT,
WITH OVC ABOVE 20 KFT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING, BECOMING SCT BY 06Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT 3-7 KNOTS
AND VRB.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
VENT RATES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE, BUT WE WILL SEE
IMPROVING VENT RATES AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE US SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ABOVE 9,000
FEET. WE WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER ON SUNDAY AND THEN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MID WEEK INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE WINDS WILL
STAY WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. MIN RH'S WILL BE DRY, BUT NOT TOO
DRY THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MIN RH'S EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
20%. VENT RATES WILL STRUGGLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
RATES ONLY GETTING TO FAIR AT BEST EACH AFTERNOON, AS I
MENTIONED, BETTER VENT RATES ARE COMING LATER NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 72 44 71 / 10 0 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 44 67 44 67 / 30 0 10 30
LAS CRUCES 39 68 39 69 / 10 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 39 68 39 69 / 10 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 31 50 31 50 / 10 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 67 39 69 / 10 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 37 64 39 64 / 10 0 0 20
DEMING 38 70 39 70 / 0 0 10 20
LORDSBURG 37 68 38 69 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 70 48 71 / 10 0 10 20
DELL CITY 42 70 41 71 / 10 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 46 72 46 74 / 20 0 10 30
LOMA LINDA 43 64 45 65 / 10 0 10 20
FABENS 43 71 44 73 / 10 0 10 20
SANTA TERESA 41 68 42 69 / 10 0 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 69 45 69 / 10 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 36 69 36 69 / 10 0 0 10
HATCH 36 72 36 71 / 10 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 41 70 42 69 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 40 67 39 68 / 10 0 0 20
MAYHILL 36 62 34 63 / 10 0 0 10
MESCALERO 32 62 33 61 / 20 0 0 10
TIMBERON 36 59 37 58 / 10 0 0 10
WINSTON 29 62 30 63 / 10 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 39 67 40 68 / 10 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 34 68 34 69 / 10 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 31 64 33 64 / 10 0 0 20
HURLEY 34 66 36 66 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 33 70 34 70 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 34 67 34 68 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 39 65 41 65 / 10 0 10 20
ANIMAS 38 69 39 70 / 10 0 10 20
HACHITA 37 68 38 69 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 68 39 68 / 10 0 10 30
CLOVERDALE 42 64 44 65 / 10 0 10 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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