172
FXUS64 KEPZ 211850
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1250 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1249 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH JUST A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.
- A COOL FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A LATE SEASON MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE
AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A RISK OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE EASING UP SOME FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2026
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LATITUDE LOW MOVING IN OVER SOCAL WITH
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO IT OVER ARIZONA.
FURTHER SOUTH, PLENTIFUL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT, BOTH DUE
TO OLD CUT OFF LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA, AND FROM
NEWLY FORMED TS POLO. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
HAS MOVED INTO NE NEW MEXICO.
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET. PLENTY OF CU
DEVELOPMENT NEXT 3 HOURS. HRRR SHOWING A FEW RANDOM SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD
MIDNIGHT, THE BACK DOOR FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN CWA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HRRR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY RG VALLEY LATE NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PACIFIC UPPER LOW/TROUGH HAS NOW MOVED IN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND RAPIDLY DRAWS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH THE HELP OF A DEVELOPING RATHER STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET AND A
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING UP FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. PWS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH 1.5 OR 1.6 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA, WHICH IS NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND JUST
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FAR
SOUTHWEST IS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME BUT I MAY PUT IN WITH THE
NEXT ISSUANCE. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS
A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BUT STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-TROPICAL HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND BEGINS RIDGING WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS WILL TEND TO REDUCE THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWS DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY, RANGING FROM AROUND .6 INCHES NORTH TO 1.1 INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED, WITH
THE RISK OF FLOODING LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY (ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
ISSUES COULD CONTINUE SOME FLOOD RISK). CUT OFF LOW FROM THE
ORIGINAL PACIFIC TROUGH THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWER PWS AND DEWPOINTS SUGGEST LIMITED ACTIVITY SATURDAY, THOUGH
PWS BEGIN REBOUNDING AGAIN SUNDAY. ALSO MODERATE MOISTURE GRADIENT
WITH HIGHER VALUES IN NORTHERN MEXICO COULD INCREASE ACTIVITY IF IT
MOVES FURTHER NORTH THAN PLANNED. ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
MODELS; NEITHER GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW BRINGING ANY TROPICAL STORM
REMAINS TO OUR AREA THROUGH THE 10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH SCT100 SCT250.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BKN070CB -TSRA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER
MIDNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS BRIEFLY EAST 10-13 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT EAST OF THE
RG VALLEY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2026
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FIRE CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEK. RAPIDLY
INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME A BIT MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
DECREASES SOME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 25-35% TUESDAY INCREASING TO 45-60% WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS 35-50% TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 60-80%
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BACK TO 45-60% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VENT
RATES FAIR-GOOD TUESDAY, BECOMING POOR-FAIR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 89 65 77 / 10 30 80 80
SIERRA BLANCA 65 86 61 78 / 10 30 80 80
LAS CRUCES 66 84 61 73 / 10 40 90 90
ALAMOGORDO 65 86 61 75 / 10 40 90 90
CLOUDCROFT 49 62 47 55 / 10 60 90 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 80 60 70 / 0 60 100 100
SILVER CITY 61 77 57 70 / 0 70 100 90
DEMING 66 85 61 75 / 0 50 100 80
LORDSBURG 67 82 63 76 / 0 70 80 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 88 65 77 / 10 30 80 80
DELL CITY 66 88 64 80 / 10 30 70 80
FORT HANCOCK 71 94 67 85 / 10 30 80 80
LOMA LINDA 64 82 60 72 / 10 30 80 80
FABENS 70 91 66 81 / 10 30 90 90
SANTA TERESA 68 87 63 75 / 10 40 80 80
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 86 64 75 / 10 30 90 100
JORNADA RANGE 66 85 62 73 / 10 40 90 90
HATCH 66 86 62 75 / 0 50 100 100
COLUMBUS 69 87 64 78 / 0 50 80 70
OROGRANDE 66 85 62 74 / 10 30 90 100
MAYHILL 54 74 53 66 / 20 70 90 90
MESCALERO 53 73 52 66 / 10 60 90 90
TIMBERON 53 73 50 64 / 10 50 90 90
WINSTON 57 73 54 64 / 10 70 100 100
HILLSBORO 65 80 59 71 / 10 60 100 100
SPACEPORT 64 82 60 71 / 0 50 90 90
LAKE ROBERTS 48 75 54 68 / 0 70 100 100
HURLEY 62 79 58 71 / 10 60 100 90
CLIFF 50 83 58 76 / 0 70 90 90
MULE CREEK 47 79 55 73 / 0 50 90 80
FAYWOOD 64 79 59 70 / 10 50 100 100
ANIMAS 67 83 63 78 / 10 70 80 60
HACHITA 66 83 62 76 / 10 60 70 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 84 61 79 / 10 50 60 60
CLOVERDALE 63 79 59 77 / 10 60 70 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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