662
FXUS64 KEPZ 131122
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
522 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- MOSTLY DRY, BREEZY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- COLD BLAST OF AIR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
- IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS ON FRIDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
WE WILL HAVE A NICE COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE A BIG CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. MANY TIMES A PATTERN LIKE THIS WOULD
DRAW UP MOISTURE, BUT FOR THIS TIME WE ARE MOVING IN DRIER AIR.
SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF HURRICANE
SIMON, WILL BE DRAWN UP TO OUR EAST (THOUGH JUST TO OUR EAST).
MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
ONE EXCEPTION BEING HUDSPETH COUNTY WHICH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN BOTH AFTERNOONS, AS IT IS CLOSER TO SOME OF THAT
TROPICAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGES WEST OF RIVER.
ON THURSDAY OUR WEATHER STARTS TO CHANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS TO OUR NORTHWEST, WILL PUSH EAST, BUT A CHUNK OF ENERGY
WILL CARVE AND FORM A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RETROGRADE
BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE A BAND
OF STRONG WINDS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST TO THE WEST OF
AREA MOUNTAINS. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN ON
FRIDAY, BUT MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH THOSE BRISK EAST
WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL TRY AND LIFT
SOME OF THE MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL GIVE LOTS
OF CLOUDS AND COULD GIVE US A SOME PRECIPITATION BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT THE EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC EC BRINGS
A GOOD AREA OF RAIN AND MAYBE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW (YES I SAID
SNOW) TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. IF
THE EC MODEL IS RIGHT, FRIDAY WILL BE A WET, COLD AND DREARY DAY,
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IS WILL BE COOL AND BRISK. EITHER WAY IT
WILL CERTAINLY FINALLY FEEL LIKE FALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT080 SCT250.
AFTER 18Z...SCT080 OCCASIONALLY BECOMES BKN080 AND OVER THE GILA
REGION, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BKN060 -SHRA UNTIL 23Z. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
10-15G25 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS THEN BECOMING WEST 7-10 KNOTS
AFTER 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
TYPICAL FALL WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BREEZY AFTERNOONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MIN RHS
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE EAST EARLY THURSDAY EVENING, REACHING THE ARIZONA STATE
LINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY EAST WINDS OF 35-55 MPH THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING SOME LATE FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS WILL BE ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER AND WEST SLOPES OF
TERRAIN. SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS, AND A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 20-30% THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 30-45%
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS 25-40% THROUGH THURSDAY,
INCREASING TO 45-60% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY
GOOD TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, BECOMING FAIR-GOOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 82 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 81 57 76 / 10 0 10 20
LAS CRUCES 56 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 79 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 59 40 56 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 78 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 78 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 53 74 47 77 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 81 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 62 84 58 79 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 65 88 63 85 / 0 0 0 20
LOMA LINDA 58 76 55 73 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 62 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 59 80 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 56 79 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 55 81 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 82 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 50 72 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 48 69 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 67 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 44 71 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 51 77 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 78 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 67 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 72 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 69 36 74 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 72 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 80 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 73 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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