637
FXUS64 KEPZ 230544
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1144 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 826 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY, AND DRY, EACH DAY THIS WEEK ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
- STRONGEST WINDS THUS FAR THIS MONTH EXPECTED SUNDAY. LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTFUL, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST, AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
TOMORROW BRINGS A MODERATE INCREASE IN WINDS AS A BROAD UPPER LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE WEST COAST TROUGH, WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS UPPER
LOW WILL STAY WAY NORTH, BUT IT'S MOVEMENT OFF THE WEST COAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SQUEEZE OUR PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AND DEEPEN
THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL TURN OUR WINDS
WESTERLY, AND INCREASE THEM UP FROM BREEZY INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY.
WE WILL REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY, WITH VERY LOW RH, AND JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH, AND SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. NOT WINDY ENOUGH FOR ANY WIND HEADLINES, BUT WE
DO HAVE FIRE HEADLINES. SOME BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE, WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, BUT IT COULD HAPPEN OVER LOCAL
AREAS NEAR DUST SOURCES.
FRIDAY IS A "TWEENER" DAY, AND SO IS SATURDAY FOR THE MOST PART.
WIND WILL BE LIGHTER FRIDAY, AND BACK DOWN TO MARGINALLY BREEZY
TERRITORY. FOR SATURDAY, THE AFTERNOON WILL START TO SEE THE EFFECTS
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR WEST, AND WINDS WILL BE
BACK ON THE INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.
SUNDAY SHOULD DELIVER OUR MOST IMPACTFUL DAY OF THE FORECAST, AS THE
PACIFIC TROUGH OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS AZ, AND WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THE WE WILL SEE A DEEP SURFACE LOW FORM OVER NE NEW MEXICO.
THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENTS NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE, WITH GUSTS 50-60 ARE EXPECTED. AGAIN, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE HIGH WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
..NEXT WEEK
WE GET ANOTHER SHORT BREAK IN STRONG WINDS FOR NEXT
MONDAY, AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND SUNDAY'S EXITING
TROUGH. BY TUESDAY, WE ARE BACK TO BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE
TROUGHING DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS AHEAD ON THE WEST
COAST TROUGH. WE COULD SEE LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER, THE RAIN OUTLOOK LOOKS BRIEF AND LIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
BREEZY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE IN THE MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING.
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15-25G25-35KT. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE MID-
AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FOR KDMN AND KLRU BUT NOT
EXPECTING MAJOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH RH 10-15% AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. FUEL CONDITIONS ARE TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT WILL DRY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, REACHING ERC 90TH PERCENTILES BY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER WIND
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THUS RED FLAG WARNING IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TOMORROW. MIN RH 8-12% AND WEST WINDS 20
TO 30 MPH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER AND KEEP US BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS NEXT SUNDAY AS A JET
STREAK ALOFT GENERATES A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW 25 TO 35 MPH AND RH 10-20% WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES. CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT DOES LOOK TO IMPROVE
MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 49 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 58 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 71 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 82 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 89 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 57 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 81 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 51 84 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 71 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 45 69 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 44 67 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 73 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 45 81 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 71 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 42 74 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 42 77 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 72 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 74 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 81 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 81 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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