447
FXUS64 KEPZ 270440
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1040 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY EAST WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIMITED
MOSTLY TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
OVERALL, LITTLE TO NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES WITH A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW), A STRONG COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY (AS OF 8:30PM) OVER THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FAR NEERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY RACE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
NM PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 4AM (EASTERN AREAS) AND 10AM
(WESTERN AREAS). RIGHT NOW FROPA WILL BE AROUND 6-7AM FOR EL PASO
METRO. ALONG AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY WEST SLOPES AND ADJACENT LOWLAND LOCATIONS. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 6PM FOR EL PASO COUNTY AND
MOST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY, ALONG WITH SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY WITH WIND
GUSTS UP 50-55 MPH. AREAS ALONG HWY54 IN NORTHERN OTERO COUNTY WILL
NOW BE INCLUDED INTO THE WIND ADVISORY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS OFF THE
SACRAMENTO MTN WEST SLOPES, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF SIERRA COUNTY
INCLUDING T OR C. HAZE WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITHIN THE LOWER PORTIONS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL, THANKS TO THE FRONT CAUSING BLOWING DUST
ISSUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME, BLOWING DUST WILL BE CONCERN LOCALLY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
SENSITIVE DUST PRONE AREAS LIKE THE LORDSBURG PLAYA. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DRASTICALLY AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BEING 25-
30 DEGREES COLDER FOR AREAS EAST AND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AREAS OUT
WEST.
BY FRIDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NM,
WITH WINDS DECREASING GRADUALLY ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY, QUIET AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 60S.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
DOMINATING THE WEATHER AND GIVING THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL MOVE
EAST. AS IT DOES SO, MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OUT OF MEXICO
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE. AS
A RESULT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NM, PROMOTING AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME. AS
OF NOW, RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH POPS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN THE
15-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES (20-30 PERCENT) OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER, A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE A RETURN OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC. A
BACKDOOR COLD WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY, GENERALLY BETWEEN 11-15Z FROM WEST TO EAST. FROPA FOR KELP
WILL BE AROUND 12Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NE AND THEN EVENTUALLY E
DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS AT KELP WILL BE
CLOSE TO AWW CRITERIA, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NO ISSUANCE AS OF NOW.
BEHIND FROPA, WINDS WILL BE 13-18 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
23-28 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS AT KTCS AND KDMN WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. HZ WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BACKDOOR FRONT CAUSES BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, THAT
BLOWING DUST WILL BE LOFTED INTO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AS HZ, MINOR
RESTRICTIONS TO VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE INSTANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NO MENTION OF MVFR IN TAFS
DUE TO CONFIDENCE BEING LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
SEVERAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST WILL
BE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING IN TOMORROW MORNING. RH'S WILL STAY
ABOVE 15% BUT WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL GUST OVER 40MPH
AT MANY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL ABOUT 10-25 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL COME ON SUNDAY AS A QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH, MAINLY FOCUSED WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO BRING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRY LIGHTNING TO THE
GILA REGION.
NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN
WITH WESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP EACH DAY STARTING TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S THESE DAYS AND WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SOME
CRITICAL AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 66 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 78 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 76 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 35 47 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 74 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 78 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 51 81 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 48 81 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 68 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 76 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 64 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 74 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 73 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 79 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 79 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 50 82 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 80 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 75 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 38 54 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 38 57 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 39 56 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 42 68 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 75 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 76 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 76 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 48 78 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 87 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 84 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 75 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 51 81 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 49 79 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 80 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 78 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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