253
FXUS64 KEPZ 190417
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
917 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 846 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AHEAD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- INCREASING CLOUDS MIDWEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GILA/BLACK
RANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 846 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
REGIME OF PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA WILL KEEP ANOMALOUSLY STACKED
PRESSURE HEIGHTS SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 15F TO 20F ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES, CREATING NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH FOR
SEVERAL LOCALES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. VERY DRY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WELL, SO KEEPING CHAPSTICK ON THE
READY IS ADVISABLE.
THE PACIFIC UPPER HIGH WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO TAKE HOLD. DRY WEATHER
REMAIN STATUS QUO, WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CIRRUS SKY COVER.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE PACNW WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD, FORCING THE UPPER HIGH TO PUSH EAST TOWARD TX. A
SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL GET WHISKED UP IN THE PROCESS,
ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
MIDWEEK. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL OSCILLATE NEAR NORCAL TOWARD THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, LETTING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE GILA. ITS EVOLUTION AT THIS
POINT BECOMES DEBATABLE, WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BEING
SUBOPTIMAL. GUIDANCE HINTS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COULD BE
ON THE TABLE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 846 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AMONGST TYPICAL AFTN WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. REMAINING DRY AND
VERY WARM THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MIN HUMIDITIES (LOWLANDS) A COUPLE PERCENT EITHER
SIDE OF THE CRITICAL 15%, SO LIGHT FUELS IN THESE AREAS COULD
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PERHAPS EVEN A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE, TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. A BREEZY SATURDAY WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE VENT RATES.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 13-20% THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 15-25%
WED/THU. MOUNTAINS 15-25% THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 20-35%
WED/THU. VENT RATES POOR-FAIR THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT FAIR-GOOD
SATURDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON BREEZES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 45 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 72 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 70 39 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 40 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 37 53 36 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 41 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 69 43 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 76 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 72 37 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 45 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 73 35 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 41 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 66 45 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 75 40 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 40 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 49 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 33 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 76 39 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 42 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 69 42 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 64 39 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 61 35 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 71 33 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 75 46 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 70 36 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 69 33 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 72 38 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 74 30 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 70 29 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 72 44 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 75 39 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 75 37 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 78 42 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 70 44 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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