185
FXUS64 KEPZ 260433
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1033 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
- WINDY, DRY, AND POSSIBLY DUSTY ON SUNDAY. CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
- THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE BENIGN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE
SIT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM, CONDITIONS CONTINUE VERY DRY, WINDS LIGHTER,
BUT STILL BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
AN UL LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER STORY. AS IT
PUSHES EAST, IT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AS THE H500 JET
MOVES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A ~990 MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
OVER FAR SW CO, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. READERS OF THESE AFDS WILL KNOW A WINDY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE BORDERLAND. H850 FLOW IN THE GFS IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
40 KNOTS WITH H700 FLOW BETWEEN 45-50 KNOTS, GIVEN PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS, WHICH USUALLY IS
A GOOD INDICATOR FOR MAX GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST SLOPE SITES,
I ELECTED TO UPGRADE THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY FOR TULAROSA EAST
SLOPES, EASTERN EL PASO, AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING. ELSEWHERE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS OF
50-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON. WIND TRAJECTORIES IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
BLOWING DUST ISSUES, BUT SINCE THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST BIG WESTERLY WIND
EVENT OF THE YEAR, IT'S HARD TO SAY HOW BAD THE DUST WILL BE. I
WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANY, DUST PRODUCTS ARE
NEEDED. IT WILL ALSO BE VERY DRY, SO CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BUT TRAILING JET ENERGY WILL KEEP THE AREA BREEZY FOR
MONDAY THOUGH NOT NEARLY TO THE SCALE OF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT.
A BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM VIA AN UL LOW.
THE GFS AND EURO SHOW DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES FOR THE FORECAST
STARTING THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW A LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST, BUT
THE GFS IS FARTHER EAST WITH IT, BRINGING IT INTO SOUTHERN NM
ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, LASTING INTO
THURSDAY, BEFORE EXITING FRIDAY MORNING. THE EURO IS SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH HAVING IT LINGER INTO SATURDAY. LREF CLUSTER
ANALYSIS REALLY DOES NOT OFFER ANY GUIDANCE ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT. ABOUT A 1/3 FAVOR THE GFS, ABOUT HALF FAVOR THE EURO OR A
WEAKER VERSION OF WHAT THE EURO SHOWS, AND THE REMAINING 1/5
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER WAVE. THE NBM HAS BROAD POPS (20% SOUTH, 50%
NORTH) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KELP WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. AFTER 16Z AND
ESPECIALLY AT 18Z, WINDS WILL INCREASE TOPPING OUT AROUND 30 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KELP. SPEEDS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
DECREASE AFTER DARK. WIND DIRECTION, 230-260, WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR BLDU, BUT CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH VIS WILL DECREASE REMAINS LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE, WITH SLIGHT INCREASE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ON SATURDAY
AND 45-55 MPH ON SUNDAY. SMOKE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT
EACH AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WINDS WITH CRITICAL AFTERNOON RH
VALUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER, MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
COMING INTO MORE AND MORE AGREEMENT, WITH REGARD TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BRINGING IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW TO MEDIUM AS DETAILS NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 88 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 51 83 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 83 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 60 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 80 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 51 84 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 78 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 86 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 55 89 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 94 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 81 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 59 91 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 85 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 85 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 51 83 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 53 84 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 56 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 53 83 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 72 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 45 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 43 70 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 42 69 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 77 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 49 80 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 69 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 44 75 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 75 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 70 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 75 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 80 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 80 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 74 42 75 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO
COUNTY.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES
BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO
MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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