634
FXUS64 KEPZ 250443
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
943 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
..CORRECTED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 922 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
- WINDY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
ON ANY OTHER DAY. FEW AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WITH THESE WINDS,
BUT WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND; LOWLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES.
- HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE AREAS FAIR, MILD,
AND DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 922 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS
EVENING, WITH PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SWEEPING THROUGH THIS
RIDGE. DESPITE THIS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE, RESULTING CIRRUS BANDS
HAVE BEEN QUITE SPORADIC AND VARIABLE. MAIN IMPACT OVERNIGHT WOULD
BE TO HOLD LOW TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. BIGGER PICTURE, RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY; THE ONLY CHANGE BEING THE RIDGE
SHARPENING UP A BIT OVER THE WEST COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST. MID-LEVEL WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS (700-500MB)
REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE ZONES
BORDERING THE INTL BORDER. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. BLOWING DUST REMAINS SOMEWHAT A MYSTERY
AS VERY LITTLE BLOWING DUST WAS GENERATED TODAY UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, FOR EL PASO, SATURDAY'S FORECAST
HIGH OF 87 DEGREES WOULD BE A NEW MONTHLY RECORD.
STILL LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANGE MONDAY AND BEYOND, AS PACIFIC
LOW/TROUGH NEARS THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL TURN UPPER FLOW SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTH OVER OUR AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DECENT TAP OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THIS FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH GFS SHOWING PWS APPROACHING .75 INCH EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. GFS/ECMWF SIMILAR WITH SOLUTION, THOUGH ECMWF
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THIS UPPER PATTERN WILL SYNCH IN WITH
BACKDOOR/DRY-LINE MOVING INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING. HENCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK
REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE RG VALLEY EAST. SNOW LEVELS LIKELY
REMAINING TOO HIGH TO IMPACT ANY INHABITABLE AREAS.
AVIATION
CORRECTED.
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH FEW180 SCT-BKN250. SURFACE
WINDS MOSTLY NORTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY
TO WEST/NORTHWEST 15-20G30 KNOTS. PATCHY BLOWING DUST SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS WED AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 10% IN THE LOWLANDS. WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,
REACHING 15-20 MPH BUT SHORT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL BE
A LITTLE STRONGER FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT MIN RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER.
THUS, NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE FOR EITHER DAY. WITH
THE WINDS, VENTING WILL RANGE GOOD TO VERY GOOD IN MOST LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LOWER THURSDAY AND ONWARD, BUT WE WILL REMAIN VERY
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP WELL INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. VENTING WILL BE VARIED, GENERALLY RANGING
POOR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 44 81 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 79 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 57 40 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 83 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 72 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 45 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 77 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 83 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 40 83 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 47 86 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 40 81 38 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 41 85 40 84 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 40 79 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 71 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 41 67 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 67 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 75 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 39 81 36 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 72 27 76 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 42 75 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 31 79 29 82 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 75 24 78 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 45 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 82 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 75 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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