299
FXUS64 KEPZ 122344
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
444 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 352 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING, PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
TEMPERATURES COOL ABOUT 7-15 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOLD NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING OF
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WE HAVE HAD FOR A WEEK NOW TO SOME WEAK RIDGING AND
THEN A TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING MORE ZONAL. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S
FOR MOST AREAS. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH GUSTY
EAST WINDS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WESTERN MOUNTAIN
SLOPES AND OUT WEST. COULD SEE SOME OF THE FAVORED EAST WIND AREAS
GUST OVER 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES SUN LOOK TO DROP ON AVERAGE ABOUT
10 DEGREES BRINGING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MON
AND TUE. CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP HIGHS
CLOSER TO SUN HIGHS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ALSO RAISES DEW POINTS AND WILL KEEP MORNING LOWS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND WESTERLY FLOW KICKS BACK IN
WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH MUCH LOWER
DEW POINTS RETURNING. NEW RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EC IS A LITTLE WARMER HERE THAN THE
GFS WITH THE GEFS MEAN CLOSER TO THE EC, SO DID BUMP HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES BEING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC. INCREASING SCT-BKN250 AFTER 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING WEST 7-10
KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
WARM AND DRY FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
MIN RH'S WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS OVER 30 MPH ON
FAVORED EAST SLOPES AND NEAR THE PLAYA. RH'S WILL JUMP UP INTO THE
20S AND 30S FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. A WARMUP IS EXPECTED
STARTING TUESDAY AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND
RH'S IN THE TEENS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. POOR TO LOW END FAIR
VENT RATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 74 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 43 69 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 37 71 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 34 70 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 54 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 70 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 67 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 35 74 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 35 71 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 39 73 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 32 73 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 38 74 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 65 38 54 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 37 74 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 37 72 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 72 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 28 71 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 35 71 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 39 74 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 37 67 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 69 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 34 64 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 33 62 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 28 66 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 41 68 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 35 69 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 22 69 22 62 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 37 69 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 71 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 68 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 70 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 36 71 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 36 72 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 74 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 44 70 43 58 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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