273
FXUS64 KEPZ 211229
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
529 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO WEATHER IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS ABOUT
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- INCREASING CLOUDS MIDWEEK WITH LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR
AREAS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 902 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK AS THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER FAIR SKIES THROUGH
TUE WITH NEAR-RECORD, FALL-LIKE TEMPS.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK,
CREATING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE DESERT SW. MOST OF THE IMPACTS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERY
ACTIVITY IS MODELED TO REACH WESTERN AREAS ON WED. THE GILA REGION
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP (20-30% CHANCE), WHICH WOULD BE
LIGHT AND ALL RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING AOA 10KFT. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (ABOUT 10% OR LESS). TROUGHING PERSISTS
OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ZONAL/SW FLOW
OVERHEAD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR US AFTER WED,
INCLUDING X-MAS. PASSING SHORTWAVES COULD RESULT IN BREEZY PM
WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUDS, OTHERWISE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO WATCH OUT FOR WOULD MOVE IN NEXT WEEKEND FROM
THE PACIFIC, BUT MODELS HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS IT
APPROACHES OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES STAY AT RECORD WARM LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS INTO THE 70S. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS BEING HINTED AT NEXT
WEEKEND AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW YEAR, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING THE REGION FAIR, DRY, AND MILD.
MOISTURE IS DIVERTED WELL NORTH, WITH SKIES MOSTLY SKC. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN A GREAT DEAL FROM YESTERDAY'S BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE, FAVORING A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 509 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
MOSTLY ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, AS THE BIG PICTURE
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES SLOWLY AND UNREMARKABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. YESTERDAY'S SHORTWAVE, THAT KICKED UP BREEZY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS HAS PASSED, WITH BROAD GENTLE RIDGING BACK IN CHARGE
OVER THE SW U.S. THIS MEANS MOISTURE KICKED BACK TO OUR NORTH, FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AND LIGHTER
WINDS. DAILY TEMPERATURES, UNDER THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE QUITE
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES, BUT ABOUT 15 DEGREES. THE AFTERNOON
MIN RH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS THROUGH TUESDAY, AT
ALL ELEVATIONS, AFTER POOR TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT/MORNING
RECOVERIES IN THE 40-50% RANGE. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
DURING THIS PERIOD, TO REVERSE THE TREND TOWARD ELEVATED/NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
AFTER MIDWEEK, WE SEE SOME TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST, WHICH
WILL TURN OUR TRAJECTORIES ALOFT FROM THE SW. THIS WILL TAP SOME
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, AND STREAM PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL FLATTEN TEMPERATURES, AND LIFT
RH MODERATELY ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM
A PASSING/LIFTING UPPER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS,
AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY.
VENTILATION WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A MIX OF POOR
AND FAIR, AND BRIEFLY GOOD RATES, THEN IMPROVE LATE WEEK AS
TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES IN TO DEEPEN MIXING, AND WINDS INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 42 75 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 38 71 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 39 72 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 56 37 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 70 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 38 75 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 38 74 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 34 75 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 42 80 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 46 70 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 41 76 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 40 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 47 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 37 72 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 36 75 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 73 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 41 72 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 38 67 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 37 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 69 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 72 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 35 72 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 70 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 72 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 35 76 35 76 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 36 72 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 72 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 39 76 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 37 74 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 75 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 73 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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