596
FXUS64 KEPZ 071123
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
423 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 420 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
- A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY, THEN ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 901 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL SCOOP UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP OUT WEST, PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW ON SATURDAY,
AROUND 20% OR LESS, AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STRUGGLES TO ERODE
THE DRY LOW LEVELS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER BAJA THROUGH
MONDAY, A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH FOR US TO SEE MUCH PRECIP EARLY IN THE
WEEK. ONCE THE INITIAL MOISTURE PLUME EJECTS TO THE EAST SAT
NIGHT, DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL TAKE OVER FOR SUN UNDER GENERAL
RIDGING ALOFT. MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE INT'L BORDER FOR MON
AS THE LOW INCHES EASTWARD, RESULTING IN LOW RAIN CHANCES BEFORE
WINDING DOWN MON NIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 9KFT,
ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF AREA MTNS WILL SEE ANY SNOW WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST.
ONCE THE LOW OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTS ON TUE, SW
FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER THROUGH MIDWEEK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
SUBTROPICAL JET SETS UP LATER NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH, RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN THU-FRI. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A
BIT LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD, NEAR 8KFT, SO THE SACS HAVE A SHOT
AT SOME SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD
BRING BREEZY WINDS AS WELL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES/CIGS AS LOW AS 100. THERE WILL BE ISO TO SCT
SHRA THIS AFTERNOON (18-00Z) WITH ABOUT 20-30% CHANCE OF EACH
TERMINAL SEEING RA, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS FROM VIS OR CIG EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS, GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST (320-010).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING WITH IT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP, AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR POOR VENT CATEGORIES WITH MOST
LOCATIONS UNDER 30K KT-FT EXCEPT THE LINCOLN NF, WHICH WILL SEE
GOOD VENT CATEGORIES. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH POOR TO FAIR VENT
CATEGORIES. AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL SEE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AGAIN ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 71 46 70 / 10 10 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 45 68 44 67 / 20 10 10 30
LAS CRUCES 39 67 40 67 / 10 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 39 69 39 69 / 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 31 49 31 49 / 10 10 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 68 40 69 / 10 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 37 64 39 64 / 10 10 10 20
DEMING 39 71 40 70 / 10 10 10 20
LORDSBURG 37 69 39 69 / 10 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 70 48 69 / 10 10 10 20
DELL CITY 42 71 41 70 / 10 10 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 46 74 46 74 / 20 10 20 30
LOMA LINDA 44 65 45 65 / 10 10 10 20
FABENS 44 73 45 72 / 20 10 20 30
SANTA TERESA 41 70 43 69 / 10 10 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 69 45 69 / 10 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 37 70 37 69 / 10 0 10 10
HATCH 37 72 37 72 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 42 70 43 69 / 10 10 10 20
OROGRANDE 40 68 40 68 / 10 10 10 20
MAYHILL 36 62 34 62 / 10 10 10 10
MESCALERO 33 61 33 61 / 20 10 10 10
TIMBERON 37 58 37 57 / 10 10 10 10
WINSTON 29 63 30 63 / 10 10 0 10
HILLSBORO 40 67 40 68 / 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 35 69 36 68 / 10 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 32 64 34 63 / 10 10 10 20
HURLEY 35 66 37 66 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 34 71 34 71 / 10 10 0 10
MULE CREEK 35 67 33 69 / 10 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 39 65 42 65 / 10 10 10 20
ANIMAS 39 69 40 70 / 10 10 10 20
HACHITA 37 69 39 69 / 10 10 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 68 40 68 / 10 10 20 20
CLOVERDALE 43 65 44 65 / 10 20 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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