222
FXUS64 KEPZ 181845
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1245 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY, FAVORING
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WITH A LOW THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MOISTURE LEVELS TREND DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR LOWER
STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A
WARM-UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
A TROPICAL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS MARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/MCVS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. PWS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT-TERM, REACHING 1.2-1.3" FOR EPZ,
WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID SEPTEMBER. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WPC STILL HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAYS, EXCLUDING HUDSPETH COUNTY
WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT IS LOWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH
NM ON FRIDAY AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR FASTER STORM
MOTIONS, SOMEWHAT LESSENING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WESTERN AREAS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
FRIDAY BEING MORE IMPACTFUL COMPARED TO THURSDAY. ISOLATED SPOTS
COULD SEE 2-3" OF RAIN ACCORDING TO HREF MAX 24-HR TOTALS.
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE WEST, BRINGING IN DRIER, NORTHWESTERLY AIR. ENOUGH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON SATURDAY TO GIVE THE MOUNTAINS LOW-END
POPS, OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN
UPPER LOW IS MODELED TO CUT OFF WEST OF BAJA, BUT SHOULD BE TOO FAR
AWAY TO PRODUCE ANY IMPACTS FOR US. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER WITH ITS FURTHER EAST PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO REACH WESTERN AREAS. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS SOME
HIGHER-LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGS SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST, BUT NOT
MUCH IF ANY RAIN CHANCES SUN/MON.
AFTER MONDAY, UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
FROM THE SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR WARM, DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO, INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
THEN WARMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR ALL
TERMINALS, MOST LIKELY FOR KELP AND KLRU. CLOUDS OVER KDMN MAY
LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 30KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS
OVERNIGHT AROUND KELP BEFORE DISSIPATING FOR THE AM. OUTSIDE OF
OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL BE AOB 10KTS MAINLY FROM SE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED STORM CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE WEEKEND, LOWERING
STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW STORM CHANCES LINGER FOR AREA
MTNS ON SATURDAY DUE TO LEFTOVER MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES STAY VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 30-50% THROUGH SAT, THEN 20-35%; 50-75% FOR THE
SACS THROUGH FRI, THEN 30-50%. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO GOOD
THROUGH SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 90 68 92 / 30 30 50 10
SIERRA BLANCA 60 86 61 87 / 20 30 30 10
LAS CRUCES 63 84 61 87 / 40 40 50 10
ALAMOGORDO 63 86 61 86 / 30 60 50 10
CLOUDCROFT 45 62 45 65 / 20 70 50 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 81 60 85 / 40 70 40 10
SILVER CITY 58 77 56 81 / 50 70 40 20
DEMING 63 86 62 89 / 40 50 40 10
LORDSBURG 63 84 63 85 / 50 60 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 88 68 89 / 30 20 50 10
DELL CITY 63 88 63 89 / 30 30 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 68 92 68 92 / 20 30 30 10
LOMA LINDA 62 82 61 82 / 30 30 40 10
FABENS 67 90 66 90 / 20 20 40 10
SANTA TERESA 66 87 65 87 / 30 30 40 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 86 64 87 / 40 50 50 10
JORNADA RANGE 63 84 61 85 / 40 60 50 10
HATCH 63 87 61 88 / 40 60 50 10
COLUMBUS 65 87 65 89 / 40 30 40 10
OROGRANDE 63 84 60 84 / 30 50 50 10
MAYHILL 50 72 51 76 / 20 70 40 30
MESCALERO 50 74 50 76 / 20 70 50 20
TIMBERON 50 71 49 74 / 30 60 50 20
WINSTON 51 74 49 79 / 40 80 40 20
HILLSBORO 58 82 57 85 / 40 70 50 20
SPACEPORT 61 82 58 84 / 40 70 50 10
LAKE ROBERTS 53 77 51 82 / 50 80 40 30
HURLEY 58 79 57 83 / 50 60 40 20
CLIFF 60 83 59 87 / 50 70 30 20
MULE CREEK 57 79 57 83 / 50 70 30 20
FAYWOOD 60 79 58 83 / 50 60 40 20
ANIMAS 63 84 63 87 / 40 60 30 10
HACHITA 62 84 61 85 / 40 50 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 62 84 62 87 / 30 40 30 10
CLOVERDALE 60 81 59 82 / 40 60 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...39-ARONSON
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