012
FXUS64 KEPZ 260047
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
547 PM MST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 PM MST THU DEC 25 2025
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RECORD WARMTH INTO SATURDAY.
- A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST THU DEC 25 2025
A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY, BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS OUT WEST THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE VERY WARM AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND LIGHT TO MODESTLY
BREEZY W-SW WINDS. WE REMAIN UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY UNDER
FAIR SKIES BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME FILTERS IN FRI NIGHT,
WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. THE PLUME MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SAT, GIVING US A BETTER SHOT AT RAIN, ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST BEFORE IT LOSES STEAM. IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE ON SAT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS DO BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SAT'S WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 10-20 MPH FROM
W-SW, GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WE'LL START TO SEE A BIG SHIFT IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS THE
APPROACHING TROUGH PUSHES INTO NM FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING HEIGHT FALLS AND THUS COOLER TEMPS FOR SUN WITH HIGHS CLOSER
TO NORMAL. SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY FROM THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY, BUT
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR WITH GUSTS AGAIN TO 30 MPH SUN AFTERNOON.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THAT HAS TRENDED STRONGER/COLDER THE LAST
FEW DAYS ARRIVES SUN NIGHT. BRISK N/NE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
BY MON AM, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST MTN SLOPES WHERE GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH
CAN BE SEEN. WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
LOWLANDS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SACS AND POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL
BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. IF THIS TREND
HOLDS, MAKE SURE TO DRESS WARMLY MON AM.
ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A RESURGENCE OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE REACHES ON
MON, BUT TEMPS/SNOW LEVELS WOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP. HIGHS ON MON CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN
(THEY'VE DECREASED ABOUT 15 DEGREES FROM THE NBM RUNS INITIALIZED
2-3 DAYS AGO) WITH THE LOWLANDS NOW STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F. SNOW
LEVELS PLUMMET TO 3-4KFT FOR MON, EXCLUDING THE NM BOOTHEEL WHERE
THEY ARE NEAR 5KFT.
A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE PACIFIC WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE
MOISTURE AXIS ON MON AND WHETHER OR NOT WE GET ANY SNOW IN THE
LOWLANDS. FOR NOW, WE HAVE S CHC IN THE GRIDS FOR A R/S MIX ON
MON, BUT THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THE MOISTURE STAYS TO OUR SOUTH AND WE REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER, THE HIGH-END SCENARIO (NBM 90TH %-ILE) SHOWS 3-6" IN
HUDSPETH CO (MOST FAVORED TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL) AND 1" FOR
EL PASO. AREAS ALONG THE INT'L BORDER ARE MOST LIKELY TO OBSERVE
PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AIR HOLDING TO THE NORTH. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO SEE WHAT
SOLUTION THEY CONVERGE ON.
TO NO SURPRISE, THE FORECAST STAYS UNCERTAIN AFTER MON AS WE SEE
WHAT THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE PACIFIC DOES. AS IT GETS SWEPT UP INTO
THE MAIN FLOW AROUND MIDWEEK, WE'LL SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSE TO THE BAJA IT IS AS
IT OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE GRIDS
FOR NEXT THU, BUT THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE UNTIL THE
MODELS AGREE ON WHERE THE LOW TRACKS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. MORE SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES VARIABLE BETWEEN SKC TO FEW-SCT180-250. FEW TO NO
CIGS, AND ALL OF THOSE WELL ABOVE 200K. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY
OR OBSTRUCTIONS EXPECTED. WINDS SLACKENING THROUGH THE EVENING,
BECOMING DRAINAGE (NW TO N) AND LIGHT (AOB7KTS). LIGHTER WINDS
TOMORROW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST THU DEC 25 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY, TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN
WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT TO MODESTLY BREEZY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE W-SW. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER FAIR SKIES. WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SAT (10-15 MPH FROM
W-SW AT 20-FEET) AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION,
RESULTING IN BETTER MIXING AND VENTILATION. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE
ALSO FORECAST FOR SAT. SUN WILL BE SIMILAR FOR WINDS WITH A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND COOLER TEMPS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NM.
MUCH COOLER FOR MON BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AS THE WINDS SHIFT
N-NE THAT MORNING. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP ON MON,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
IN THE MTNS.
MIN RHS WILL BE 25-45% THROUGH SAT, 35-55% ABOVE 7500FT. VENT
RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGH FRI, GOOD TO
VERY GOOD IN THE MTNS; GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 75 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 74 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 41 70 45 68 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 42 72 47 69 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 37 52 38 47 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 43 69 45 67 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 41 65 43 57 / 0 0 20 50
DEMING 42 73 46 70 / 0 0 10 30
LORDSBURG 40 70 45 64 / 0 0 20 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 74 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 40 76 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 47 79 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 48 69 50 66 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 46 76 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 43 72 46 70 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 73 52 70 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 41 71 46 68 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 40 74 45 70 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 45 73 49 70 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 43 71 47 70 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 40 66 41 62 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 38 63 39 59 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 36 62 38 58 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 33 65 37 59 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 42 70 45 65 / 0 0 10 30
SPACEPORT 38 70 43 68 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 37 64 40 56 / 0 0 30 50
HURLEY 41 67 43 62 / 0 0 10 40
CLIFF 38 70 42 63 / 0 0 30 50
MULE CREEK 38 65 41 58 / 0 10 30 50
FAYWOOD 43 67 46 62 / 0 0 10 30
ANIMAS 43 73 48 67 / 0 0 20 30
HACHITA 41 72 46 68 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 75 47 68 / 0 10 10 30
CLOVERDALE 48 67 48 60 / 0 10 30 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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