736
FXUS64 KEPZ 231140
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
540 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 826 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY, AND DRY, EACH DAY THIS WEEK ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
- STRONGEST WINDS THUS FAR THIS MONTH EXPECTED SUNDAY. LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTFUL, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST, AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 826 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
TOMORROW BRINGS A MODERATE INCREASE IN WINDS AS A BROAD UPPER LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE WEST COAST TROUGH, WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS UPPER
LOW WILL STAY WAY NORTH, BUT IT'S MOVEMENT OFF THE WEST COAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SQUEEZE OUR PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AND DEEPEN
THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL TURN OUR WINDS
WESTERLY, AND INCREASE THEM UP FROM BREEZY INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY.
WE WILL REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY, WITH VERY LOW RH, AND JUST SOME
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH, AND SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. NOT WINDY ENOUGH FOR ANY WIND HEADLINES, BUT WE
DO HAVE FIRE HEADLINES. SOME BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE, WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, BUT IT COULD HAPPEN OVER LOCAL
AREAS NEAR DUST SOURCES.
FRIDAY IS A "TWEENER" DAY, AND SO IS SATURDAY FOR THE MOST PART.
WIND WILL BE LIGHTER FRIDAY, AND BACK DOWN TO MARGINALLY BREEZY
TERRITORY. FOR SATURDAY, THE AFTERNOON WILL START TO SEE THE EFFECTS
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR WEST, AND WINDS WILL BE
BACK ON THE INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.
SUNDAY SHOULD DELIVER OUR MOST IMPACTFUL DAY OF THE FORECAST, AS THE
PACIFIC TROUGH OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS AZ, AND WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THE WE WILL SEE A DEEP SURFACE LOW FORM OVER NE NEW MEXICO.
THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENTS NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE, WITH GUSTS 50-60 ARE EXPECTED. AGAIN, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE HIGH WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
..NEXT WEEK
WE GET ANOTHER SHORT BREAK IN STRONG WINDS FOR NEXT
MONDAY, AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND SUNDAY'S EXITING
TROUGH. BY TUESDAY, WE ARE BACK TO BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORE
TROUGHING DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS AHEAD ON THE WEST
COAST TROUGH. WE COULD SEE LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER, THE RAIN OUTLOOK LOOKS BRIEF AND LIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
LOW END BREEZINESS CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT BY MID
MORNING, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS (21Z-00Z) BEFORE WINDS START TO TAPER
OFF THE EVENING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BLDU POSSIBLE AT KDMN AND KLRU BUT NOT
EXPECTING MAJOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES, BUT COULD SEE SOME
REDUCTION TODAY. AFTER 00Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NM AND NEAR CRITICAL CONCERNS IN FAR WEST TX. BREEZY WEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FRIDAY
WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN BUT NOT AS WINDY AS WHAT WE'RE EXPECTING
TODAY. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE 5-15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON COUPLED
WITH CRITICAL MIN RHS ALMOST AREAWIDE, EXCEPT FOR THE AREA
MOUNTAINS WITH RHS OF 15-20%. TOMORROW WILL BE AN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL DAY DUE TO WINDS NOT MAKING CRITERIA. MIN RHS STAY
SIMILAR HEADING INTO SATURDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOWLANDS
OF 9-12% AND THE AREA MOUNTAINS SEEING RHS OF 15-20%. 20 FOOT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO RFW CRITERIA AT 10-15 MPH. SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD BE THE NEXT "SLAM DUNK" RFW DAY AS WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST (20 FOOT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH) AND MIN RHS ARE STILL
MOSTLY WITHIN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE AREA AT 11-16%
(HIGHER MIN RHS THE CLOSER YOU GET TO THE AZ STATE LINE).
MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND 20-25% THAT AFTERNOON. MORE
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY VS CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE CURRENT FORECASTED MIN RHS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS TIME GOES ON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 59 42 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 83 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 81 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 57 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 89 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 72 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 39 69 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 40 68 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 79 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 73 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 41 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 75 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 83 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 82 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 77 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page