028
FXUS64 KEPZ 161010
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
410 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 409 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- CONTINUED DRY AND WARM, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS AND
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS AND THE
RESULTANT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
- SOME MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..SATURDAY & SUNDAY
BROAD, LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CONUS WILL OVERLAY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST LOBE OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS ON SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO
THAT, 993MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO WITH
SUFFICIENT SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
ON SUNDAY, STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERLAY THE REGION. SUB-
990MB SURFACE LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO WITH
STRONG SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE TIGHTLY PACKED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE.
..MONDAY & TUESDAY
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY TREK ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY. SWERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERLAYING THE REGION WITH SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN AT 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 90 DEGREES.
..REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION MIDWEEK. AS IT DOES,
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A WEAK LOW/TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE BAJA COAST.
AS IT DOES, WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PUSH THE
DRYLINE TOWARD THE RGV. ALWAYS SOME QUESTION WITH THE INITIAL
WESTWARD PUSH WITH THESE, BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THERE WILL
BE SOME STORM CHANCES AT LEAST IN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES.
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH COOLING EXCEPT OUT IN THE FAR EAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC. SCT100 FAIR WX CU
AFTER 19Z, MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS
WEST AOB 7 KNOTS THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO WEST 12-17G27 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF THIS
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
CONTINUED WARM AND VERY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WHERE THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
PUSH FIRE CONDITIONS TO CRITICAL. ADDITIONALLY, FUELS HAVE BEEN
DRYING THE PAST WEEK OR SO, AND ERCS ARE APPROACHING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. EXACERBATING FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ARE THE POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY, WITH MAX RHS IN THE 25-35%
RANGE. AND TO TOP IT OFF, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY, AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO
A RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY. MONDAY COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY SEE
A WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 5-8% TODAY AND SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 8-13% MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAINS 6-12% TODAY AND SUNDAY, INCREASING TO
10-20% MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 57 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 67 45 65 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 85 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 78 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 57 90 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 63 96 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 60 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 63 94 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 89 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 87 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 57 89 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 86 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 53 79 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 75 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 51 82 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 84 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 80 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 81 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 84 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 85 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page