739
FXUS64 KEPZ 082344 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
444 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 436 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
- A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER WIND GUSTS,
COULD MAKE FOR MESSY DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE GILA REGION THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TO THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
- OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH JUST RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
IN THE LOWLANDS. THE BAND OF PRECIP WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES LAS CRUCES, AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EL
PASO.
- EXPECT COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS
JUST ABOVE 0 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH 10S AND 20S IN THE LOWLANDS, AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
- MILDER AND CALMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENT MOSTLY WENT AS EXPECTED, THOUGH DRY AIR
TOOK A BIG BITE OUT OF RAINFALL TOTALS OVER DONA ANA AND EL PASO
COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WERE ON POINT, WITH SLOPPY 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS IN CLOUDCROFT VILLAGE, BUT ONE 2.5 INCH REPORT JUST BELOW
9000 FEET. SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL ALSO HAD A MAX SNOW DEPTH CHANGE
OF 4 INCHES. OVER THE GILA, SNOW STAYED ABOVE MOST POPULATED
ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOTELS PICKED UP BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES BASED ON
SNOW DEPTH CHANGE, ALL ABOVE 8000 FEET. IF ANYTHING STOOD OUT, IT
WAS THE NUMBER OF 0.75 TO 0.90 INCH RAINFALL REPORTS IN THE SILVER
CITY AREA.
GFS PROBABLY DID THE BEST OVERALL, WITH THE 12Z RUN PICKING UP ON
THE LOWER AMOUNTS OVER FAR WEST TEXAS, BUT THERE WAS MORE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AROUND SILVER CITY. THE CAMS AND NAM WERE
ARGUABLY CLOSER WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS IN THE GILA, BUT
RIDICULOUSLY OVER-FORECAST QPF (1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES) AND SNOW IN
THE SACRAMENTOS, AS WE EXPECTED.
THE NBM DID FAIRLY WELL OVER THE GILA, BUT WAS EVEN WETTER IN LC
AND EP THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, AND WAS TRAGICALLY FLAWED WITH
1.25 TO 1.50 INCH QPF OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. HAD WE JUST GONE WITH
THE AUTOMATED NBM / FORECAST BUILDER GRIDS, AND DID NOT ACTUALLY
MAKE A PROPER FORECAST AND MAKE MANUAL EDITS TO THE AUTOMATED
GRIDS, WE'D HAVE SENT OUT A FORECAST OF 7-10 INCHES IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BASED ON SOME FEEDBACK, IT SEEMS MANY
AUTOMATED/MODEL-BASED FORECAST WEB SITES AND APPS WERE PREACHING
SIMILAR NUMBERS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY
SLOT OVER MOST OF THE CWA, BUT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO THE GILA REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH NO LONGER A CLOSED LOW, THERE IS A NICE CORE OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND -28C OVER
FLAGSTAFF CURRENTLY. THIS IS LEADING TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK INSTABILITY, AND THERE HAS BEEN A FLURRY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, EXPECT SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY TO START
TO PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA BEFORE SUNSET. HRRR AND SOME OF THE
CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THIS AS WELL.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE
TROUGH, PERHAPS AIDED BY THE CONVECTION OVER ARIZONA, WILL SWEEP
INTO SW NEW MEXICO. THE NAM SHOWS A BAND OF STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL (800-700MB) FRONTOGENESIS APPROACHING THE GILA REGION BY
03Z. JUST HEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS WHERE SEVERAL CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING A SQUALL-LIKE FEATURE, PUSHING IT THROUGH
THE GILA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z, AND WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS SOUTH
AND EAST, LAYING OUT FROM THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z.
HREF SUGGESTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF 1"/HR SNOWFALL. THOUGH
THESE CAMS DO TEND TO OVERDO QPF, AND THEREFORE, CALLING INTO
QUESTION ANY OF THESE PROBABILITY FIELDS, THE FIELDS ARE ACTUALLY
SHOWING SNOWFALL OVER A FULL 1 HOUR PERIOD. GIVEN THE FAST MOTION
OF ANY SNOW SQUALL, BRIEF (20-30 MIN) PERIODS OF 1-2 INCH PER
HOUR RATES STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
PRECIP TYPE IS ALSO A PROBLEM. TEMPS IN SILVER CITY HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOWER 40S, WITH MID-40S ACROSS THE GILA-CLIFF AREA. IT'S
34 AT A FEW SITES IN PINOS ALTOS AT ABOUT 6700 FEET, AND 31 AT
EMORY PASS, SO SNOW LEVELS SEEM TO BE BETWEEN 7500-8000 FEET. THE
TIMING OF THE SQUALL PASSAGE WILL BE IMPORTANT, AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP OFF STEADILY AFTER SUNSET. ALSO, HEAVIER PRECIP WILL
TEND TO COOL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY AS WELL. FOR SILVER CITY
(DOWNTOWN ELEVATION) EXPECT PRECIP WILL START AS RAIN BUT QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW, WITH THE SQUALL ARRIVING AROUND 6 TO 7 PM. PRECIP
WILL OF COURSE CHANGE OVER QUICKER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
SUDDEN ONSET OF HEAVY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW MAY TAKE PEOPLE BY
SURPRISE AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS EVENING, AND A QUICK 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET. THE SQUALL WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS AS WELL. FOR ITS PART THE HRRR SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 40 TO
45 MPH WILL BE COMMON.
CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER EITHER.
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING IN THE GILA,
BUT SLOWLY TAPER OFF, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
SW NEW MEXICO WILL DROP INTO THE 30S, COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, BUT
THE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN BY THEN.
EXPECT A LESS SQUALLY RETURN OF SNOW IN THE SACRAMENTOS AS THE
BAND WEAKENS, WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL, BY SUNRISE, EXPECT A MESSY 1-2" FOR SILVER CITY, WITH
2-4" ABOVE 7500 FEET (INCLUDING THE NM-15 HIGH POINTS, AND EMORY
PASS/NM-152). IN THE SACRAMENTOS, 1-2 INCHES AROUND CLOUDCROFT,
WITH THE ODD 2-3 INCH AMOUNT ABOVE 9000 FEET. ACCUMULATIONS UNDER
AN INCH BELOW 7500 FEET.
WE CONSIDERED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
GILA ZONE (NM403) WHICH INCLUDES BAYARD AND HURLEY, AND THE LOWER
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN ZONES (BELOW 7500 FEET), BUT RELENTED FOR NOW.
I'M NOT CONVINCED RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN TIME FOR MUCH
IMPACTS AT BAYARD OR HURLEY, BUT IT'LL BE CLOSE. SNOWFALL MOUNTS
ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS LOOK TO BE UNDER 1 INCH, BUT
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND A GENERAL LACK OF SNOW ALL WINTER, LETTING
THE ADVISORY RIDE SEEMS PALATABLE. SAME GOES FOR THE EAST SLOPES,
THOUGH SOME HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES MAY BLEED
OVER INTO THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE SACS.
WINDS BEHIND THE SQUALL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT, AND THERE'S A
WEAKER SIGNAL FOR A MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION. STILL THINK GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON ALONG EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS, BUT IT MAY
COME AND GO LIKE LAST NIGHT. MUCH LIKE TODAY, WE MAY SEE A LULL IN
THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS DEEPER MIXING TAPS INTO THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. GUSTS 30 TO 35
MPH WILL BE COMMON TOMORROW IN THE LOWLANDS, WITH 40 TO 45 MPH
ALONG EAST SLOPE AREAS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WHERE THERE'S ENOUGH SNOW ON THE GROUND. EXPOSED AREAS
ALONG THE SUNSPOT HIGHWAY COME TO MIND.
WENT WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA AND SACS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SKIES CLEAR. EXPECT NEAR 0 AT GILA
HOT SPRINGS, AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE OTHER USUAL GILA COLD SPOTS
(AND SOME OF THE CANYONS ALONG THE EASTERN SACS). UPPER-10S
POSSIBLE IN THE MESILLA AND HATCH VALLEYS, MID-20S URBAN LAS
CRUCES, UPPER-20S URBAN EP. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES OR EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS, BUT AFTER
COORDINATING WITH OTHER OFFICES, WE DECIDED TO HANDLE THAT ONE DAY
AT A TIME. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS NEARLY AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT
NOW, WITH MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER AT A FEW SITES.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BECOME MILDER, WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON
MONDAY, AND LOWER-60S RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN TO OUR WEST, AND PERSISTENT
LONG WAVE TROUGHING TO THE EAST WILL KEEP US WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND QUIET PRECIP AND WIND-WISE. WE MIGHT SEE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP DOWN THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, WHICH MIGHT GIVE US A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR, BUT
THAT'S JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
GUSTY SWLY TO WLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. CURRENT ISOLD SHWRS IN
WRN NM WILL INCREASE AND COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS COULD LEAD TO LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS, THOUGH DIRECT
HITS TO TERMINALS IS LESS LIKELY AND THEREFORE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. LLWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD, SLACKENING AFT 09/17Z. PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH AFT 09/11Z BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
CONTINUED WINTRY WEATHER AND LINGERING COLD TEMPERATURES. A BAND
OF RAIN/SNOW AND AN UPTICK IN GUSTY WINDS WILL SWEEP INTO THE GILA
TONIGHT, WITH SNOW RETURNING TO THE SACRAMENTOS AS WELL.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS ON MOUNTAIN SUMMITS.
PRECIP WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT RH WILL REMAIN HIGH.
VENTILATION WILL BE FAVORABLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
DIMINISHING VENTILATION RATES, AND MOSTLY POOR VENT CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER BACK TO NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 54 28 50 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 52 25 46 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 32 51 23 47 / 40 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 32 49 22 47 / 20 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 19 26 13 30 / 70 20 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 49 18 47 / 40 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 27 41 14 43 / 100 10 0 0
DEMING 34 52 23 49 / 70 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 31 47 22 46 / 90 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 39 53 27 49 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 34 54 25 49 / 10 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 36 56 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 32 48 24 44 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 36 55 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 52 27 48 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 53 27 48 / 30 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 30 51 17 49 / 30 10 0 0
HATCH 32 53 18 50 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 52 26 49 / 50 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 51 24 47 / 20 10 10 0
MAYHILL 23 38 12 44 / 60 20 20 0
MESCALERO 22 35 17 41 / 70 20 20 0
TIMBERON 22 36 16 38 / 50 10 10 0
WINSTON 22 39 7 42 / 70 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 30 47 21 46 / 80 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 27 49 19 48 / 30 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 17 38 1 44 / 100 10 0 0
HURLEY 28 45 13 45 / 100 0 0 0
CLIFF 26 47 12 50 / 100 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 21 42 4 46 / 100 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 30 46 20 45 / 90 10 0 0
ANIMAS 30 49 23 47 / 80 0 0 0
HACHITA 32 49 25 46 / 80 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 50 22 47 / 30 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 32 45 26 41 / 50 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...99
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