318
FXUS64 KEPZ 161708
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1108 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A CHILLY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEHIND OUR LATEST COLD
FRONT. LIGHTER WINDS, AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
- HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS, AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY WARMER BEGINNING TUESDAY. RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, AND LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HISTORIC MARCH HEAT BEGINNING FRIDAY, WITH LOWER TO
MID NINETIES ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. TODAY WE
ARE LEFT WITH HAZY SKIES DUE TO THE SUSPENDED PRAIRIE DUST, BREEZY
E AND SE WINDS, AND COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE SUSPENDED
DUST WILL SETTLE THIS AFTN/EVE. TONIGHT WE WILL SEE CHILLY
CONDITIONS, WITH MORNING LOWS ACROSS THE REGION SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HOWEVER, RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
RESERVED FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN, THE OTERO MESA/HUDSPETH HIGHLAND,
AND THE INTERIOR BOWLS IN THE TULAROSA BASIN, JORNADA RANGE.
ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE RURAL DESERT LOWLANDS/VALLEYS LOW IN THE
M30S TO L40S.
STARTING TOMORROW, TUESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST GETS
STAGNANT, WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT (CURRENTLY TO
OUR WEST) EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING OVER OUR REGION. THIS IS A
FEATURE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. AS SUCH, WE WILL SEE A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES MORE AKIN TO THOSE SEEN MAY/JUNE, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE 90S. THIS WILL BE THE WEATHER FOCUS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AS
HIGHS BECOME QUITE WARM, WITH DAILY HIGHS LATE WEEK, AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL 6
DAY STREAK OF RECORD BREAKING HIGHS FOR EL PASO...STARTING
WEDNESDAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE A NEW ALL TIME HIGH SET FOR MARCH,
FOR EL PASO (CURRENTLY 93 IN 1896/2017).
THE HIGH WILL KEEP ANY PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WELL TO OUR NORTH, SO
WE WILL STAY DRY, AND IN FACT, GET MUCH DRIER. NO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN SIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW, WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON LOW RH IN THE MID SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE, AND VERY
LITTLE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL, SO SOMETHING TO MESSAGE TO THE PUBLIC...BE CAREFUL WITH
OUTDOOR FLAMES AND SPARKS.
THE ONE THING WORKING IN OUR FAVOR, WILL BE THAT THE UPPER HIGH
WILL KEEP WIND STORMS AT BAY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD, DESPITE
WIDESPREAD HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO SUSPENDED DUST WITH LAST NIGHT'S
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. DESPITE THE HAZE, VISIBILITY REMAINS ABV 6SM
ACROSS THE AREA, AND DUST WILL SETTLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP ANY CIGS AOA 25K IN MOSTLY BKN SKIES. WINDS
FROM THE E-SE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH 20Z...SHIFTING MORE
TOWARD S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE 5-15KT RANGE...AND THEN
VRBL IN THE 3-8KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH COOLER AIR
IN PLACE ON BREEZY EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND CONDITIONS. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS QUITE DRY, WITH NO PRECIP, AND NOT MUCH RH RECOVERY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE SUSPENDED DUST WILL SETTLE
THIS AFTN/EVE. YESTERDAY'S ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY ABATED, WITH THE LOSS OF THE STRONG
WINDS, DESPITE SOME LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS.
FOR THE WEEK, A PRETTY SIMPLE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT, THAT IS NOW TO OUR WEST, WILL
STRENGTHEN, EXPAND, AND DRIFT EAST OVER OUR REGION. THIS IS A
FEATURE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. AS SUCH, WE WILL SEE A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES MORE AKIN TO THOSE SEEN MAY/JUNE, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE 90S. THE HIGH WILL KEEP ANY PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WELL TO
OUR NORTH, SO WE WILL STAY DRY, AND IN FACT, GET MUCH DRIER. MIN
RH WILL FALL INTO THE 3-5% RANGE DAILY MID WEEK AND BEYOND, WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES STRUGGLING TO REACH 30%, AND LIKELY IN THE
20-30% RANGE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THUS FUELS WILL DRY
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH NEW FIRE STARTS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. THE ONLY WEATHER ELEMENT WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE
THE LIGHTER WINDS, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE HELPING TO KEEP OUR
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS SAME PERIOD.
MODELS DON'T SEE THE PATTERN CHANGING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
MONDAY, SO NO PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE MODEL
SUGGEST A QUICK PASSING TROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIP POTENTIAL, BUT OTHER MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 78 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 74 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 76 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 75 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 54 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 79 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 40 75 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 39 79 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 78 45 87 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 77 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 30 78 41 88 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 83 47 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 70 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 40 80 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 39 76 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 78 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 34 78 42 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 36 81 45 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 81 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 74 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 33 71 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 30 65 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 31 63 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 32 76 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 41 80 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 34 78 42 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 76 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 36 76 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 38 81 42 90 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 39 78 45 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 76 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 40 81 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 39 79 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 81 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 78 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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