263
FXUS64 KEPZ 080406
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1006 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
- DRIER AND WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
- MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY NEAR
AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- THE PATTERN LOOKS TO FINALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE USUAL SPRING
SPECIAL, WITH DRY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN UPPER LOW NOW OVER NE TEXAS. WRAP AROUND
SECONDARY VORT NOW OVER SE NEW MEXICO. THIS FEATURE BROUGHT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING,
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW ALL BUT OVER. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NE
NEW MEXICO IS BRINGING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN CLOSE TO OUR
CWA, BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THIS WILL GIVE US MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP AT LOW
LEVELS (BELOW 700 MB). DEW POINTS DO RISE SOME, BUT I THINK THEY
ARE OVERDOING IT. ANYWAYS, THE MODELS KEEP THE QPF LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY HUDSPETH CO., SO LOW POPS NOT UNREASONABLE
FOR THOSE AREAS.
MUCH BROADER AREA OF MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW NEARS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS CREATES A MORE SERIOUS PUSH OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THE DRY-LINE MAY BRIEFLY INTRUDE
INTO THE EASTERN CWA, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHER DEWPOINTS OF 40S TO 50 WILL STILL
ADVECT INTO OUR AREA AND ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP--WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE CONT DIVIDE. BOTH GFS
AND NAM12 SHOW RESPECTABLE CAPE VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
SHEAR SHOWN, BUT WITH THOSE CAPE VALUES, A FEW STORMS COULD STILL
BECOME STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF LIFT THE PACIFIC LOW
UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY, ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES TO
UNFOLD. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW LIFTS UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN, WITH
YET ANOTHER VORT LIFTING UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY. THIS
PROCESSION OF LOWS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON WINDS TO INCREASE
NOTICEABLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IF, FRIDAY DOES NOT SUPPLY
DECENT RAINFALL, THEN THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD COULD
BRING FIRE CONDITIONS BACK TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC. SCT080 DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE MOSTLY SOUTH 7-10 KNOTS. WINDS
BECOMING MAINLY SOUTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
S
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SACRAMENTOS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WARMER AND DRIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE PUSH FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY
SATURDAY. A MORE SUSTAINED DRY AND WINDY PATTERN LOOKS TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 83 56 86 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 43 78 50 81 / 10 10 10 30
LAS CRUCES 46 80 51 83 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 79 47 84 / 20 10 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 34 58 40 62 / 30 10 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 80 53 83 / 20 10 0 20
SILVER CITY 45 73 49 77 / 10 10 0 10
DEMING 47 83 51 87 / 10 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 46 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 81 58 86 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 43 81 48 85 / 20 10 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 48 86 54 89 / 10 10 0 20
LOMA LINDA 47 75 54 79 / 10 0 0 10
FABENS 50 84 55 88 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 48 81 52 85 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 81 56 85 / 10 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 42 81 46 84 / 10 0 0 10
HATCH 44 83 47 87 / 10 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 50 83 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 44 78 47 84 / 10 10 0 10
MAYHILL 37 70 42 74 / 30 10 0 30
MESCALERO 36 69 42 73 / 30 10 0 30
TIMBERON 37 65 42 71 / 30 10 0 20
WINSTON 37 73 41 75 / 20 10 10 20
HILLSBORO 48 78 52 81 / 10 10 0 10
SPACEPORT 42 80 45 84 / 10 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 38 75 42 77 / 10 10 0 10
HURLEY 43 75 46 80 / 10 10 0 10
CLIFF 41 82 42 85 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 38 78 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 76 50 80 / 10 10 0 10
ANIMAS 48 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 81 51 84 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 51 77 53 79 / 0 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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