368
FXUS64 KEPZ 301654
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1054 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH EL PASO METRO AREA
AND THE LOWER VALLEY APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK ON MONDAY.
- INCREASING MOISTURE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES. SOME BREEZY W WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH; NO BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED. LIGHTER WINDS FOR SUN,
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY AS TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING IN E HUDSPETH
SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME MOIST, SE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD STAY IN THE BIG BEND REGION. THE SE
FLOW PERSISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING OUR DEW POINTS UP TO THE
40S AND 50S BY TUE. AREAS E OF THE US-54 CORRIDOR WILL BE FAVORED
FOR STORMS ON MON, BUT WITH LOW CHANCES (20-40%) IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ON TUE AS THE GULF MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE AZ-NM BORDER. PWS REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR
EARLY JUNE TUE-WED WITH VALUES OF 1-1.2" MODELED, MAINLY E OF THE
RGV. WITH NOT MUCH STEERING FLOW OR SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURES,
ANY SFC BOUNDARIES OR SUBTLE IMPULSES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
CONVECTION, WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS. MILD TEMPS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ON TUE SHOULD RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS (SBCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG) WHILE WIND SHEAR IS MEAGER. COOLER FOR WED BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE, SO INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH (CLOSER TO 1500 J/KG ACCORDING TO 0Z LREF MEAN).
STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALL
HAZARDS TUE AND WED. MORE DETAILS REGARDING GUST POTENTIAL, RAIN
RATES, AND HAIL SIZE WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE COMING DAYS. THE RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST E OF US-54 BOTH DAYS WITH
LOWER STORM CHANCES ALONG THE AZ BORDER. RECENT BURN SCARS AND
LOW-LYING AREAS ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES WILL BE 40-80% ALMOST AREA-WIDE BOTH DAYS. RAINFALL OF
1-2" IS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS, MOST LIKELY OUT EAST.
AFTER WED, WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS BY FROM THE WEST, PUSHING OUT
SOME OF THE MOISTURE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK FOR LOW STORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY OVER AREA MTNS. BY
NEXT WEEKEND, MOST OF THE LOWLANDS SHOULD STAY DRY, BUT NOT ENTIRELY
FLUSHED OF MOISTURE. OTHER THAN GUSTY/STRONG OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ON MON
WITH EL PASO AND THE LOWER VALLEY APPROACHING 100F, COOLING TO BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTS TO 20KTS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM W-SW, SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. MAINLY SKC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WX. W-SW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ON
SUN WITH CONTINUED DRYNESS. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STARTING ON MONDAY, SPREADING AREA- WIDE TUE/WED WITH RHS CLIMBING
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON WED. EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE A LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS MON AFTERNOON, WITH MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES AREA-WIDE
TUE/WED. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL,
STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL. DUE TO THE HIGH
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING IN, DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT MUCH OF A
THREAT. STORM CHANCES DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEK. ERCS START OUT
BETWEEN 80TH-90TH PERCENTILE THIS WEEKEND, THEN PLUMMETING BY
MIDWEEK. MILD TEMPS THROUGH TUE, THEN FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 6-15% THROUGH SUN, RISING TO 12-35% FOR TUE.
VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 58 93 63 93 / 0 10 0 20
LAS CRUCES 54 93 59 95 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 61 93 67 95 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 45 73 49 73 / 0 0 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 92 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 95 58 99 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 91 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 95 68 97 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 55 95 61 96 / 0 0 0 20
FORT HANCOCK 63 100 68 100 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 60 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 60 98 66 100 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 57 93 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 94 72 96 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 56 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 56 95 61 98 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 95 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 92 63 94 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 50 86 55 85 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 49 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 40
TIMBERON 47 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 47 85 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 90 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 87 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 88 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 91 54 96 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 86 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 92 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 91 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 92 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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