744
FXUS64 KEPZ 051131
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FAVORING LOCAL MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
A LARGE UL RIDGE IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH ITS CENTER
JUST OFF THE GULF COAST OF TX AND LA. THIS PATTERN HAS STEERED A
RICH MOISTURE PLUME OUR WAY WITH THE 00Z EPZ SOUNDING SHOWING
1.56" OF PW. LACK OF UL FORCING (POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF
BACKGROUND SUBSIDENCE) AND MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE DID A GOOD JOB
OF LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA, WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. GUIDANCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HELPFUL ON WHETHER THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE HRRR HAS GIVEN A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH EVERY ITERATION. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL
BRING CLOUDS, AND THAT MAY WORK TO HINDER OUR STORM CHANCES AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY. REGARDLESS, OUR PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LARGELY THE SAME
OTHERWISE, VERY MOIST (~1.5" PW) WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, SO EXPECT A FORECAST SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN
THE LOWLANDS, LARGELY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD/RAIN LINGERS
INTO THE MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
BY SUNDAY WE BEGIN A SLOW DRYING TREND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE'S
INFLUENCE INCREASES OVER THE CWA. PW VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND
1.25" WITH H500 TEMPS AROUND -4 DEGREES C. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WILL DROP, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWLANDS, BUT EVERYONE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE AT LEAST MODEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES WITH MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN LOWLANDS FAVORED, AND THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD STEADY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UL HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE INTO NM WITH THE HEALTHIEST
MOISTURE PLUME WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AS WE GET INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE WITH THE EURO
BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH IT WHILE THE GFS SENDS THE RIDGE WELL TO OUR EAST WITH A
TROUGH INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER. THE EURO WOULD CONTINUE THIS
PATTERN OF SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS WHILE
THE GFS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM CHANCES. LOOKING AT THE
LREF 500 MB HEIGHTS, I'D SAY THE TRUTH WILL LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE THOUGH PROBABLY MORE RIDGY THAN TROUGHY (NOT A REAL WORD).
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO MORE OR LESS HOLD
STEADY, RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH IS UPPER THE
80S TO NEAR 90 THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
VMC THIS MORNING WITH SKIES FEW-SCT130, SCT-BKN250. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB 5 KNOTS TODAY. HIGH CIRRUS ACROSS
SW NM THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH TCU DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. VERY
ISOLATED -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER AREA MTNS. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TS MENTION IN TAFS, GIVEN LOW COVERAGE. WILL
AMEND LATER TODAY IF NEEDED. OUTFLOWS MAY LEAD TO SURFACE GUSTS
UP TO 25KT BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NM FORESTS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SUDDEN, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
2PM AND 8PM TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MIN RH
30-40% WITH VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. VERY LIGHT WIND TODAY
WILL KEEP VENT RATES POOR. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH LINCOLN AND GILA NF THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD, WITH FLOODING RISK PEAKING DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED (30-50%) AND SPOTTY IN
NATURE. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAVORABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
FIRE DANGER LOW WITH MINIMAL RISK OF NEW LIGHTNING STARTS.
PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE SE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MIDDAY VENT RATES GENERALLY POOR/FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 96 74 95 / 20 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 91 64 91 / 20 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 95 68 93 / 20 10 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 93 67 93 / 20 40 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 50 69 49 69 / 20 60 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 93 70 91 / 10 20 40 10
SILVER CITY 63 88 63 85 / 10 30 50 50
DEMING 68 96 68 94 / 10 10 30 0
LORDSBURG 68 95 69 92 / 10 10 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 96 75 95 / 20 10 10 0
DELL CITY 70 95 69 95 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 98 73 98 / 20 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 89 67 88 / 30 10 0 0
FABENS 71 97 72 96 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 95 71 93 / 20 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 95 72 94 / 20 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 94 68 93 / 20 10 30 0
HATCH 70 97 70 95 / 20 10 40 0
COLUMBUS 72 96 72 94 / 10 0 30 0
OROGRANDE 68 93 68 93 / 20 10 10 0
MAYHILL 56 82 55 82 / 20 40 10 30
MESCALERO 55 81 54 81 / 20 60 10 50
TIMBERON 54 80 52 79 / 30 40 0 20
WINSTON 59 85 59 83 / 10 40 40 60
HILLSBORO 68 92 68 90 / 10 30 50 30
SPACEPORT 67 94 67 92 / 10 20 40 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 87 57 85 / 10 40 40 60
HURLEY 63 91 64 88 / 10 20 40 30
CLIFF 66 95 67 93 / 10 30 40 40
MULE CREEK 63 91 65 90 / 10 10 30 40
FAYWOOD 66 90 66 87 / 10 20 40 20
ANIMAS 68 94 68 92 / 10 10 40 10
HACHITA 67 94 67 91 / 10 10 50 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 93 67 91 / 10 0 40 10
CLOVERDALE 64 88 65 86 / 10 20 40 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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