517
FXUS64 KEPZ 051825 CCA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN MOUNTAIN AREAS STARTING
MONDAY PERSISTING THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LOWLANDS WILL ALSO SEE
ISOLATED STORMS EACH DAY AS OUTFLOW WINDS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL SEE THE BETTER
STORM COVERAGE.
- BY TUESDAY, WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
LOWLANDS WITH 100-105 DEGREES COMMON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL BE RETROGRADING INTO
SOUTHERN CA BY MIDWEEK AND THEN BACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BY NEXT WEEKEND. NONE OF THESE PLACEMENTS IS A PRIME MONSOON
SEASON PATTERN, BUT WE HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME MODEST MOISTURE WHICH
WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON
DEVELOPING STORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND BRINGING DOWN STRONG
OUTFLOWS ONTO THE LOWLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POPPING DUE TO
THEM. THERE IS SOME CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THAT HAS LIMITED
HEATING A LITTLE BIT THROUGH THE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
GILA REGION, THINK DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
CAMS ARE SHOWING AND POSSIBLY WEAKER. AS OF 17Z, THERE HAS JUST
BEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT AROUND RUIDOSO WHERE THERE WAS SOME
CLEARING. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND WITH EVEN KSRR REPORTING A
51 DEW POINT AND SOME SHEAR WITH THE OCCASIONALLY SURPRISING N TO NE
FLOW PATTERN WHICH STARTS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THESE STORMS OUT EAST WHERE A COUPLE COULD GET STRONG/SEVERE.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND SOME BLOWING DUST IS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
GOING INTO MONDAY, IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH NE FLOW
CONTINUING AND THINK THERE WILL BE LESS MORNING CLOUD COVER THAN
TODAY. AGAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SACS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE AROUND AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
100 FOR THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. NBM TEMPS DID SEEM A COUPLE DEGREES
WARM AND LOWERED UNDER 100 FOR MOST AREAS.
AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST BY TUE AND CONTINUING INTO FRI, SOME
DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED AT LEAST OVER EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE RGV BUT KEEP SCT
MOUNTAIN/ISOLD LOWLAND STORMS GOING TO THE WEST. DEW POINTS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S,
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN WE WOULD TYPICALLY SEE DURING AN
AVERAGE MONSOON SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM AGAIN OVER 100
FOR MOST LOWLAND AREAS WITH 100-105 COMMON.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES, THERE WILL BE SOME BETTER
MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN ZONES
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT. COULD START SEEING SOME
INCREASED STORM CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION WITH SOME LOWER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THROUGH 12Z THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASING CLOUDS E TO W AFTER 12Z TO SCT120-150. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS 3-5SM TSRA BKN060-080 OVER AREA MOUNTAINS STARTING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40KTS POSSIBLE GOING ONTO
THE LOWLANDS WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
21Z-03Z. EXPECT KDMN, KLRU AND KELP TO BE AFFECTED IN THE 23Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
IN GENERAL, FAIRLY PERSISTENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION NOW WILL MOVE WEST THEN
UP INTO CO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
AROUND THE AREA TO GET DAILY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN/ISOLATED LOWLAND
STORMS GOING. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS A TYPICAL EARLY/MID
JULY PATTERN TYPICALLY BRINGS, BUT MIN RH'S WILL STAY AT LEAST IN
THE TEENS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 15-30% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY BUT WARM TO ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 99 76 101 / 20 10 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 94 66 95 / 10 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 72 97 68 98 / 20 10 30 10
ALAMOGORDO 70 96 69 97 / 10 30 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 51 73 52 74 / 10 60 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 97 69 98 / 0 20 10 20
SILVER CITY 71 89 64 92 / 10 60 30 50
DEMING 71 98 67 98 / 20 10 30 20
LORDSBURG 71 98 69 99 / 0 20 40 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 98 75 99 / 20 0 30 10
DELL CITY 69 96 68 99 / 10 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 74 100 73 102 / 10 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 68 91 68 93 / 10 20 20 10
FABENS 74 100 73 101 / 10 0 20 10
SANTA TERESA 73 97 71 99 / 20 0 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 97 75 99 / 10 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 70 97 68 98 / 20 20 20 10
HATCH 72 100 68 101 / 20 20 30 10
COLUMBUS 75 101 73 100 / 10 10 30 10
OROGRANDE 69 95 68 97 / 20 20 20 20
MAYHILL 56 84 56 85 / 20 60 10 30
MESCALERO 55 84 55 85 / 10 60 10 30
TIMBERON 53 81 54 83 / 20 50 20 20
WINSTON 62 88 59 89 / 10 60 10 60
HILLSBORO 68 94 67 95 / 10 40 20 30
SPACEPORT 67 97 66 97 / 10 20 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 62 92 57 92 / 0 70 20 70
HURLEY 68 91 64 95 / 10 40 30 40
CLIFF 66 96 62 96 / 10 50 20 40
MULE CREEK 64 95 60 95 / 0 50 20 40
FAYWOOD 67 91 65 93 / 10 30 20 30
ANIMAS 72 99 69 100 / 10 10 30 10
HACHITA 71 98 67 98 / 10 10 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 72 98 68 99 / 0 10 40 20
CLOVERDALE 69 94 66 94 / 10 20 30 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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