027
FXUS64 KEPZ 081111
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
511 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 451 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
- SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
- LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REMAINING HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 98-102; EXCEPT HIGHS THURSDAY/FRIDAY 101-106.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
EVENING WITH A MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE AZ-NM BORDER
UP INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PUSHED SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS
AND INTO MUCH OF THE CWA. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A MEAGER 0.53" PW,
AND AS A RESULT, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTABLY LOWER,
LIMITED MAINLY TO THE GILA. MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NM WILL PIVOT BACK TO THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY, AND THE GFS AND
NAM SHOW PWS INCREASING BACK CLOSER TO AN INCH. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD THEREFORE INCREASE. NBM WAS VERY PESSIMISTIC FOR
THE LOWLANDS WITH POPS BELOW 15%, BUT I INCREASED THEM IN LINE
WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE AND N'LY FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULDN'T TAKE
MUCH TO DRIVE ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE LOWLANDS ON OUTFLOWS, AND
THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS THEORY. WE ESSENTIALLY REPEAT THIS PATTERN
AGAIN THURSDAY THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB HIGH WILL NUDGE TO
THE WEST. HIGHS WILL ALSO CREEP UPWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOWLANDS ABOVE 100.
FRIDAY WILL START A TRANSITION. THE 500 MB HIGH WILL CENTER
ITSELF BACK OVER NM, BUT IT WILL ALSO START SHIFTING NORTH.
INITIALLY, THIS WILL LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE HIGH, BUT THE NORTHWARD SHIFT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE
IN FROM MEXICO WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE
CENTERING ITSELF NEAR WY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE,
DECREASE IN HIGHS, AND INCREASE IN STORM AND RAIN CHANCES.
ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE INVERTED TROUGHS THOUGH THE GFS
AND EURO DO NOT AGREE ON THEIR POSITIONS. POPS REMAIN BROAD-
BRUSHED BY THE NBM, GENERALLY RANGING 20-50% FOR ANY GIVEN 6 HOUR
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS
WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWS NEAR 1.5".
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCT250 IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. ISO TSRA/SHRA AT TAF SITES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AFTER 21Z, BUT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO TRIGGER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH SUBSEQUENT WIND SHIFTS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUES. NEAR CRITICAL MIN RHS PERSISTS
IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VALUES GENERALLY 11-20%. AREA
MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-35%. 20 FOOT WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL STAY LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH WITH CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXISTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS. SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WITH MORE AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE MIN RHS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL TODAY, BUT EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH FRIDAY BEING THE HOTTEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 102 78 103 / 20 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 96 69 97 / 0 20 20 10
LAS CRUCES 70 100 71 101 / 20 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 73 100 74 101 / 20 20 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 55 78 / 20 40 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 100 72 101 / 20 20 20 0
SILVER CITY 65 94 66 94 / 20 50 20 30
DEMING 68 103 69 103 / 20 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 70 100 69 100 / 20 20 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 101 77 102 / 20 20 20 0
DELL CITY 69 99 71 101 / 0 20 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 74 102 75 103 / 0 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 69 94 70 95 / 20 20 20 10
FABENS 74 102 75 103 / 0 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 73 100 73 102 / 20 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 101 78 102 / 20 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 72 100 72 102 / 20 20 20 0
HATCH 71 104 72 105 / 20 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 74 104 75 104 / 20 30 30 0
OROGRANDE 70 99 71 100 / 20 20 20 10
MAYHILL 58 88 60 89 / 20 60 20 40
MESCALERO 58 88 58 90 / 20 30 20 40
TIMBERON 55 84 57 86 / 20 20 20 30
WINSTON 61 92 62 93 / 20 40 20 20
HILLSBORO 69 98 69 99 / 20 30 20 10
SPACEPORT 67 100 69 101 / 20 20 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 95 59 95 / 20 50 20 30
HURLEY 65 97 66 98 / 20 50 20 20
CLIFF 65 100 66 100 / 20 40 20 20
MULE CREEK 63 96 63 96 / 20 20 20 20
FAYWOOD 66 95 66 96 / 20 40 20 20
ANIMAS 71 101 69 99 / 20 40 50 10
HACHITA 69 100 68 99 / 20 30 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 100 68 97 / 20 40 50 10
CLOVERDALE 66 94 63 91 / 20 50 60 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page