791
FXUS64 KEPZ 281739
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1139 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO'S THIS AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MONDAY
BEING THE WARMEST DAY; EL PASO METRO AREA AND THE LOWER VALLEY
COULD APPROACH TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS THAT DAY.
- STARTING TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
CLOUDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION AS MOISTURE CREEPS INTO EASTERN
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES, RAISING THE CHANCE, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY,
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL STAY DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY. AS THURSDAY CHANGES TO
FRIDAY, THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION, BRINGING WITH
IT BREEZY CONDITIONS (15-25 MPH FROM SW) FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AT OR AROUND 90 FOR FRIDAY.
THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE AS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 90S, WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY IN THE REGION'S
SEVEN-DAY OUTLOOK. SOME LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY EVEN
SEE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK ON MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY, MOISTURE TO OUR EAST WILL PUSH FURTHER WEST INTO OUR
REGION, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS E OF THE RGV ARE
MOST FAVORED TO SEE RAINFALL NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE CONCERNS TUE/WED AS PWS CLIMB TOWARDS RECORD
LEVELS (AROUND 1" OR HIGHER) FOR EARLY JUNE. FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE MONITORED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE REACHES
THE REGION AND WHAT KIND OF SYNOPTIC FORCING DEVELOPS. TEMPS FALL
TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 20KTS FROM S-SW, STAYING A BIT
BREEZY INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING W. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
PASS BY THROUGH TONIGHT. ISO TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE SACRAMENTO'S
THIS AFTERNOON, PROGRESSING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LINGERING
MOISTURE IS FLUSHED OUT TO THE EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SACS/CAPITANS, THREATENING THE
SEVEN CABINS FIRE WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH. LOWER CHANCE (~10%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF THE SACS INTO
THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO MODESTLY BREEZY S WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH RHS NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS HIGH
CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD. AN UPPER TROUGH SCOOTS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS ON FRI, BRINGING BREEZY SW WINDS (10-20 MPH AT 20 FEET)
AND ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS, LESS SO FOR FAR WEST TX. SAT-MON
WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHTER W-SW WINDS, ALLOWING FUELS TO WORSEN.
MOISTURE MOVES IN ON TUE, BRINGING RAIN/STORM CHANCES. TEMPS WARM
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOLDING AROUND NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-30% IN FWZ113 TODAY, 6-20% ELSEWHERE; THEN
5-15% AREA-WIDE. VENT RATES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 88 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 66 46 66 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 53 80 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 61 92 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 57 88 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 90 59 91 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 95 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 64 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 94 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 90 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 90 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 63 91 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 67 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 64 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 53 78 52 79 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 52 76 50 77 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 49 73 47 75 / 20 10 0 0
WINSTON 49 79 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 59 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 59 87 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 54 84 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 52 86 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 81 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 56 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 88 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 59 88 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 88 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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