263
FXUS64 KEPZ 182128
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
328 PM MDT THU JUL 18 2019
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWLANDS, WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
THEME THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR ALOFT
LOOKS TO DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVELY WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA REGION AND PARTS OF
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS (NOTABLY N AND S OF CLOUDCTOFT). SLOW
MOVING STORMS HAVE LED TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR, IT IS
QUIET IN THE LOWLANDS, AND DESPITE WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
THIS MORNING, MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO HAS MANAGED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE MID-40S, WITH 50S MOSTLY CONFINED TO AN AREA ROUGHLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ALM-LRU LINE. RAP13 ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
VALUES IN THE LOWLANDS MUCH HIGHER IN THIS AREA AS WELL, WITH
SBCAPE >1000 J/KG MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OTERO, EL PASO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES, AND THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE BOOTHEEL. HOWEVER,
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING EXISTS WITH SBCIN GENERALLY IN THE 80-120 J/KG
RANGE. THE LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT ALSO HINTS AT THIS, AND A EARLY
AFTERNOON RAOB FROM WSMR HQ CONFIRMS IT.
CAMS MODELS INCLUDING MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST A FEW CELLS
WILL SURVIVE COMING OFF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS INTO PARTS OF EL
PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY, WHERE THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER
CIN. ALSO, THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOOTHEEL APPEARS TO A HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS
TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD, THROUGH WE'LL REMAIN IN E TO NE FLOW
ALOFT, WITH MOSTLY RECYCLED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMING FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT SPOTTY AND INCONSISTENT IN THE LOWLANDS, MUCH
LIKE TODAY, WITH SOME AREAS MIXING OUT INTO 40S DEWPOINTS, AND
OTHERS STAYING IN THE LOWER-50S. EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE
LOWLANDS.
ON SUNDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO GIVE US A BOOST IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE UPPER
RIDGE LOOKS TO FURTHER DRIFT NORTHWARD, AND NE MID-LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS WILL BE IDEAL FOR STEERING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SACRAMENTOS INTO THE MESILLA AND EL PASO VALLEYS. CONTINUED MOIST
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER "UPTICK"
DAY, THOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY BE MORE FAVORED, ESPECIALLY IF THERE
IS MUCH RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY EVENING.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NE FLOW PULLING
DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS INTO OUR AREA, DIMINISHING
PRECIP COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z-20/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO POSSIBLE TSRA. SKIES
GENERALLY SCT- BKN100-130 BKN250 THROUGH PERIOD WITH LOWER
CEILINGS (BKN070CB) NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS 260-310 AT 10-15KT
BACKING TO 210-250 AT 05- 10KT AFTER 06Z. FURTHER BACKING EXPECTED
BY 18Z TOMORROW UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. CONFIDENCE FOR VCTS IS
HIGHER AT KTCS AND KDMN TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KELP AND KLRU. TEMPORARY VRB25G40KT 3SM POSSIBLE
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
A CONTINUED MONSOONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER MOUNTAIN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MIN RH IN THE 20-30% RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK AFTERNOON WINDS WILL LEAD TO FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES
MOST DAYS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE EAST ALONG WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT PROMOTING MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 99 76 101 / 20 10 30 10
SIERRA BLANCA 69 93 70 94 / 30 20 30 10
LAS CRUCES 71 97 70 98 / 10 20 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 73 98 70 100 / 10 30 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 57 76 54 78 / 20 60 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 99 72 99 / 10 30 20 20
SILVER CITY 65 91 65 92 / 10 40 20 40
DEMING 70 99 69 99 / 10 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 70 97 69 98 / 20 20 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 99 77 100 / 20 10 30 10
DELL CITY 72 99 72 101 / 20 10 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 76 99 77 101 / 20 10 30 10
LOMA LINDA 71 93 70 94 / 30 10 30 10
FABENS 75 98 76 100 / 20 10 30 10
SANTA TERESA 73 98 74 99 / 10 10 30 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 98 73 99 / 10 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 71 99 70 99 / 10 20 30 10
HATCH 71 100 71 101 / 10 20 30 10
COLUMBUS 73 99 72 100 / 20 20 30 10
OROGRANDE 73 97 72 98 / 10 20 20 10
MAYHILL 62 86 59 88 / 20 50 20 50
MESCALERO 61 86 59 88 / 10 50 20 50
TIMBERON 59 82 56 85 / 20 40 20 40
WINSTON 62 91 61 92 / 10 40 30 50
HILLSBORO 68 97 67 98 / 10 40 30 40
SPACEPORT 69 99 67 99 / 10 30 30 10
LAKE ROBERTS 59 92 57 92 / 10 50 30 50
HURLEY 65 94 66 94 / 10 30 20 30
CLIFF 62 98 62 100 / 20 30 20 30
MULE CREEK 67 94 67 95 / 20 30 20 20
FAYWOOD 67 93 67 94 / 10 40 30 30
ANIMAS 68 98 67 99 / 30 20 30 10
HACHITA 68 97 68 98 / 30 10 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 94 68 96 / 40 20 30 10
CLOVERDALE 65 90 64 91 / 40 30 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
25-HARDIMAN / 30-DENNHARDT
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