285
FXUS64 KEPZ 150458
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
958 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS REST OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIXED
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. MINIMAL WEATHER HAZARDS.
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY,
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER SIXTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
DOMINANT UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT, A WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND LEAD TO VERY MINIMAL DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOWLAND
SITES, WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY.
COLD FRONT SPILLING DOWN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL
BARELY REACH EL PASO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST, BUT OTHERWISE GO BY FAIRLY
UNNOTICEABLE. HRRR (AND GLOBAL MODELS) RUNS SHOW THE BOUNDARY
LOSING MOMENTUM AS IT SLAMS INTO THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE RANGES,
STALLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PREVENTING ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. THUS, MINIMAL
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH FROM THE EAST LOOKS PROBABLE ON SATURDAY
WITH MERIDIONAL N/S FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AIDING A 1033MB
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSHING COOL AIR SOUTH.
THIS NEXT FRONT IS ALSO QUITE MODIFIED BY THE TIME IT REACHES US,
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND A MINOR (3-5 DEGREE) COOL DOWN.
OVERALL, THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL IMPACT AND
QUITE PLEASANT.
BOTH GLOBAL MODELS RESOLVE A PACIFIC LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
PROGRESSING ASHORE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE CAN
GET, WITH MODELS CURRENTLY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. FOR NOW, FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER MONDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER NORTH FLOW ALOFT. SKIES SKC-
FEW250 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, THEN 190-240 AOB 5 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. 20-FT WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
LESS THAN 5 MPH. MIN RH 25-35% WITH POOR VENTILATION. CONDITIONS
BECOMING DRIER ON FRIDAY WITH MIN RH FALLING TO 15-25%. NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY MAY ALLOW VENT RATES TO INCREASE TO FAIR
BRIEFLY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT WINDS. ERCS ARE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER LOCAL FORESTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 36 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 62 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 31 61 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 25 42 26 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 63 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 31 63 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 62 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 38 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 65 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 33 67 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 36 57 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 33 65 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 32 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 38 63 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 28 61 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 64 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 32 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 31 60 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 60 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 26 55 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 26 53 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 24 60 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 33 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 28 61 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 27 60 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 29 60 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 28 65 27 66 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 62 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 60 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 28 63 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 61 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 28 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 62 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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