278
FXUS64 KEPZ 131307
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
607 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 432 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIXED ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER SIXTIES.
- WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
EAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER BIG BEND TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END SHORTLY, BUT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS.
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS.
REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FIXED ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EL PASO AREA STAYING DRY THIS WEEK WITH NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SOURCE AND MINIMAL FORCING. TUESDAY WILL
FEATURE A MODEST WARMUP, PUSHING LOWLAND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THIS IS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR
MID-JANUARY.
VERY N/S MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
THE BLOCKING HIGH. 1032MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
DOWN THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY, REACHING THE EL PASO AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY EAST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT, HOWEVER MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. NO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES DAY-TO-DAY, MOSTLY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. GFS SHOWS A SECOND COLD FRONT SPILLING DOWN THE
HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT ISN'T STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH THIS FAR
WEST. EVEN IF IT DOES, IT'S ALSO LOOKS WEAK AND BENIGN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW EAST OF THE BIG BEND HAVE
MOSTLY PULLED EAST OF ELP. THE REST OF THE PERIODS WILL FEATURE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, TRENDING TOWARDS WESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AT TCS. LIGHT DRAINAGE
FLOW WINDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 606 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TICKING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUT LOW
DEWPOINTS, LIGHT WINDS, AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER WILL STILL RESULT
IN SOME COLD MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND CANYONS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL LIMIT VENT RATES ACROSS THE
REGION. BUT WE'LL SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE AREA, AND SWITCHES WINDS TO
EASTERLY. BUT LIMITED MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REDUCE VENT
RATES AGAIN THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 35 63 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 32 58 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 59 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 29 61 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 25 41 24 43 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 59 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 32 58 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 30 62 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 60 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 62 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 24 61 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 30 65 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 56 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 30 63 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 29 61 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 62 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 27 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 62 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 31 61 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 59 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 29 51 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 53 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 26 51 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 25 54 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 35 58 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 29 60 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 27 57 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 29 59 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 65 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 62 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 58 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 29 60 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 29 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 56 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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