165
FXUS64 KEPZ 231816
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1216 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA AND AN
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR
MOST AREAS BUT LOCALLY 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
CURRENTLY, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPERING OFF,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RGV. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND IN THE CAMS
AND HAVE TAPERED NBM POPS DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST AS THERE ARE STILL SOME DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AN ALMOST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THEN, THE HRRR AND
EVEN THE GFS ARE SHOWING A SW-NE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR EL PASO ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. KEPT POPS GOING
THERE HIGHER THAN OTHER AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS WE MOVE INTO THU, THROUGH THE MORNING IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EAST, BUT THEN WE GET SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
DISTURBANCES MOVING UP OUT OF MEXICO IN THE AFTN/EVENING WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THERE IS
SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AROUND OF 500-1000J/KG CAPE AND MOISTURE
REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL SO HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE OUT EAST TO GET ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID
70S WHILE AREAS OUT WEST WHERE I'M EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SUN
WILL GET TO AROUND 80.
FOR FRI, THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OFF TO THE WEST
WILL LIFT OUT AND THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z
SAT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND AGAIN DECENT CAPE BUT WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL
DRYING AND SOME SHEAR SO MAY NEED TO BE AWARE OF SEVERE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AREAWIDE WITH LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND DID
RAISE NBM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
THE DRY AIR IS FULLY ENTRENCHED FOR SATURDAY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST FOR LATER SUNDAY. A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE HERE, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO REALLY WATCH IF THE
REMNANTS OF POLO MOVE UP THIS WAY. GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS MOISTURE GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE NEXT TROUGH THAN THE
EC. THIS WOULD BE A HEAVY RAIN MAKER AGAIN IF IT DOES HAPPEN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT015-025 SCT-BKN050-070 TO START THE PERIOD WITH AREAS
WEST OF THE RGV SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 00Z WITH
SCT060-080 SCT-BKN200-250. SCT TO NMRS-SHRA BKN020-030 WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY INTO HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED 1-3SM TSRA
BKN010-020 DEVELOPING WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IS POSSIBLE NEAR KELP FROM 06Z-10Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AOB 12KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE
RECENT RAINS AND JUST A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN RH'S FROM THE 50S/60S
TO THE 30S/40S FOR SAT/SUN AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND COOLER TEMPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 77 62 82 / 60 40 70 30
SIERRA BLANCA 59 74 58 82 / 50 60 70 30
LAS CRUCES 58 76 59 79 / 60 30 80 30
ALAMOGORDO 60 76 58 80 / 80 70 90 50
CLOUDCROFT 48 57 45 60 / 70 70 90 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 78 59 80 / 70 40 90 30
SILVER CITY 54 74 55 76 / 30 30 70 20
DEMING 58 78 59 83 / 30 20 80 20
LORDSBURG 59 79 60 83 / 20 10 70 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 77 63 82 / 50 40 70 30
DELL CITY 62 73 61 83 / 50 60 70 60
FORT HANCOCK 64 72 64 84 / 50 60 70 30
LOMA LINDA 58 72 57 76 / 60 50 70 30
FABENS 62 79 63 83 / 60 40 70 30
SANTA TERESA 61 76 61 81 / 50 30 70 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 77 62 81 / 70 50 90 30
JORNADA RANGE 59 75 59 79 / 60 50 90 30
HATCH 61 78 61 82 / 70 40 90 30
COLUMBUS 63 80 62 82 / 30 20 60 10
OROGRANDE 61 75 60 79 / 70 50 80 40
MAYHILL 53 69 52 75 / 80 80 80 80
MESCALERO 52 68 50 72 / 70 70 80 60
TIMBERON 49 65 48 69 / 80 80 90 60
WINSTON 52 70 52 72 / 50 60 80 50
HILLSBORO 57 75 58 78 / 50 50 90 30
SPACEPORT 58 76 58 80 / 70 40 90 40
LAKE ROBERTS 51 74 52 77 / 30 40 80 20
HURLEY 54 77 55 77 / 30 30 70 20
CLIFF 57 81 57 83 / 30 20 80 20
MULE CREEK 56 76 55 80 / 40 30 70 20
FAYWOOD 57 74 58 76 / 30 30 70 20
ANIMAS 60 79 61 83 / 30 10 60 10
HACHITA 59 77 60 81 / 20 20 60 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 79 60 83 / 50 20 50 10
CLOVERDALE 57 78 57 80 / 50 20 40 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA
ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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