831
FXUS64 KEPZ 221155
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
555 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE 80S. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE REGION.
SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
- THE FLOOD THREAT LINGERS FOR EASTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE STORM
CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER ARIZONA AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF
COLORADO. FAVORABLE FORCING AND LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE GILA REGION AND NEARBY AREAS
MOSTLY WEST OF RIO GRANDE EXTENDING TO THE ARIZONA BORDER.
THERE IS A A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE ON THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL, STRONG
WIND GUSTS, AND MAYBE A LOW PROBABILITY SHORT LIVED WEAK TORNADO.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
AND NEARBY SURROUNDING AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA FROM NOON THURSDAY THROUGH 6AM FRIDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE GILA REGION.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO CENTERED ON THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM EL PASO NORTH TO
ALBUQUERQUE. THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY IN TO MONDAY WITH A RETURN DRIER AND CALMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS. LONG TERM OUTLOOK DOES HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT
IMPACTS FOR KTCS AND KDMN LATER TODAY FROM TS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS
POSSIBLE AT KDMN. LOW CHANCE OF CIGS FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS.
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING, THEN
GUSTING TO 20KTS FROM S-SE THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PUSHING NE
AND EXITING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RGV THROUGH THE EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE GILA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
2-3". LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS FURTHER EAST IN THE SHORT-TERM. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE MODESTLY BREEZY FROM THE S-SE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH BETTER MIXING THAN YESTERDAY, BUT NOT
GREAT. HIGH STORM CHANCES PUSH EAST FRI/SAT ALONG WITH THE FLASH
FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT. WINDS STAY MODESTLY BREEZY INTO THE
WEEKEND, FAVORING A S-SE DIRECTION. TEMPS COOL TO NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 50-75% IN THE GILA TODAY, 25-50% ELSEWHERE;
THEN 30-50% LOWLANDS AND 45-75% MTNS THROUGH SAT. VENT RATES WILL
BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 83 60 79 / 50 70 80 70
SIERRA BLANCA 58 80 56 79 / 10 50 60 50
LAS CRUCES 57 77 54 73 / 70 60 70 60
ALAMOGORDO 59 80 54 75 / 30 80 90 90
CLOUDCROFT 45 59 42 55 / 30 90 90 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 75 54 70 / 70 70 70 70
SILVER CITY 51 69 48 66 / 100 50 30 40
DEMING 55 77 53 74 / 80 40 30 50
LORDSBURG 55 75 53 71 / 70 30 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 82 61 78 / 60 70 80 60
DELL CITY 60 84 58 78 / 10 60 80 80
FORT HANCOCK 65 90 62 87 / 20 60 70 50
LOMA LINDA 58 77 55 73 / 20 70 80 80
FABENS 63 87 60 83 / 40 60 80 70
SANTA TERESA 60 80 57 76 / 60 70 70 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 81 58 77 / 60 70 90 70
JORNADA RANGE 57 78 54 74 / 70 70 80 70
HATCH 57 79 54 75 / 60 60 70 70
COLUMBUS 59 80 56 77 / 70 40 20 30
OROGRANDE 58 80 55 75 / 30 80 90 80
MAYHILL 50 70 47 63 / 20 90 90 100
MESCALERO 49 70 46 66 / 30 90 90 100
TIMBERON 47 66 44 62 / 30 90 90 90
WINSTON 48 67 45 64 / 90 50 50 50
HILLSBORO 54 74 50 70 / 80 60 60 50
SPACEPORT 55 75 52 72 / 70 70 80 70
LAKE ROBERTS 48 69 44 65 / 100 50 40 50
HURLEY 51 72 48 68 / 100 50 30 40
CLIFF 55 75 52 72 / 100 60 30 40
MULE CREEK 52 70 48 66 / 100 60 20 30
FAYWOOD 53 71 50 68 / 90 60 40 50
ANIMAS 56 78 53 73 / 50 20 0 10
HACHITA 55 77 52 74 / 60 30 0 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 80 53 76 / 50 20 0 10
CLOVERDALE 54 73 50 69 / 40 20 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL
GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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