772
FXUS64 KEPZ 300447
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
947 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 944 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WARMING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LIGHTER WINDS TURNING EASTERLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKING VERY SUBDUED, EVEN MORE THAN LAST NIGHT AT
THIS TIME, AS OUR COUPLE OF SHOTS AT PRECIP LOOK EVEN SLIMMER NOW.
SUB-TROPICAL JET WITH PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AS UPPER TROUGH/NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE OVER
THE AREA. ALL THIS DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST. CIRRUS OVERCAST SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES BECOMING STATIC NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND
WE WILL BECOME UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHWEST INFLUENCE ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOMEWHAT NOTICEABLE TROUGH/UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF BRINGS ACROSS A MUCH
WEAKER FEATURE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SLIM CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER
HUDSPETH OR EVEN EL PASO COUNTIES, BUT GRIDS DO NOT CURRENTLY
REFLECT THIS. PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD ALSO BE GOOD FOR A 5 TO 7
DEGREE WARMUP, WITH THE FIRST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE JAN
22.
OUR OTHER SHOT AT PRECIP FROM EARLIER MODELS WAS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MODELS ARE
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH MUCH MORE NEUTRAL-ORIENTED RATHER THAN
POSITIVELY TILTED. THUS IT LOOKS MORE PROGRESSIVE; JUST BRUSHING
OUR EASTERN CWA, AS A REX-BLOCK RIDGE FORMS OVER THE WEST COAST.
TROUGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO TURN SURFACE WINDS EASTERLY AND BRING
IN SOME COOLER AIR (TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL), BUT NOT NEAR AS MUCH
COLD ADVECTION AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS MODEL RUNS HAD
SHOWN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 944 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT150 BKN-OVC250, BECOMING
SKC-FEW250 AFTER 12Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, BECOMING
EAST/NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
MINIMAL TO NO FIRE CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DRIEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
10 MPH. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN POOR IN THE LOWLANDS BUT WILL VARY
IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM FAIR TO GOOD FOR FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND VENT
RATES WILL DROP TO POOR IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY MONDAY, VENT RATES
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 33 60 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 28 54 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 29 57 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 24 55 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 20 43 20 42 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 56 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 30 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 27 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 35 59 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 23 53 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 62 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 31 52 32 52 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 30 61 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 58 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 33 56 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 25 57 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 25 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 32 60 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 22 53 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 22 54 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 21 51 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 23 49 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 22 55 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 30 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 22 57 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 24 59 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 27 58 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 22 63 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 20 60 19 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 32 55 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 28 60 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 58 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 30 59 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 35 56 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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