014
FXUS64 KEPZ 061728
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1028 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
- BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
- WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS AND MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE.
- SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY WITH LEE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE. BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST FOR THE EL PASO AREA THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE. SOME STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE FELT OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG EAST SLOPES TODAY. MONITORING FOR
BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS AS
WINDS AREN'T QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOFT DUST. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THIS IS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH, HOWEVER.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT SPILLING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WIND
SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH. MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY, STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
STRONG JET STREAK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO SEPARATE AWAY FROM THE
PREVAILING POLAR JET AND RETROGRADE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL POSITION OUR AREA IN A
DIFFLUENT, SOUTH FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD NORMALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE SLOW MOISTENING PROCESS WILL DELAY
RAIN CHANCES. SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE. LIGHT EAST WINDS CONTINUE.
UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS APPROACH ON MONDAY, WHICH FINALLY LOOKS TO
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES.
SCATTERED (40-60%) RAIN SHOWERS IS THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FAVORING
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. OVERALL QPF IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, BEST
GUESS BEING IN THE 0.10-0.25 RANGE FOR RAIN TOTALS. WE MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A
WARMING TREND, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, EITHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES
BEGINNING SKC, THEN FEW-SCT250 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST 240-270 AT 15G25KT THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 40KT OVER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG EAST SLOPES. WINDS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, BECOMING 300-350 AT 05-10 KNOTS. FROPA FROM
THE NE SATURDAY MORNING, EAST WINDS 090-120 AT 10-20 KNOTS
TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND MIN RH 10-15%. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
CAPITAN/SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS UNTIL 7 PM WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
MEETING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING,
SHIFTING WINDS 180 DEGREES FROM TODAY. EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
WEST SLOPES. VENTILATION REMAINS GOOD TO VERY GOOD. HIGHER
MOISTURE WITH MIN RH 15-25% WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. NO
RED FLAGS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
LOW FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL ALSO KEEP FIRE DANGER
LOW AND MAY PROVIDE SOME WETTING RAINS OVER THE LOCAL FORESTS.
WINDS BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST AGAIN BY TUESDAY, BUT NO
FIRE HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 43 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 40 66 40 69 / 0 0 20 20
LAS CRUCES 34 68 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 34 68 36 71 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 24 45 28 50 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 59 37 66 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 33 69 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 30 65 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 45 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 37 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 43 76 43 77 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 41 63 41 68 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 42 74 45 76 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 39 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 31 68 35 71 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 32 70 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 37 66 38 71 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 27 55 30 63 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 26 56 30 62 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 31 54 33 59 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 22 55 27 63 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 33 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 30 65 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 25 58 31 66 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 28 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 26 66 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 63 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 61 39 67 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 32 68 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 32 67 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 34 68 38 72 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 35 64 42 68 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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