992
FXUS64 KEPZ 252140
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
340 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE UP TO THE AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
EAST OF DEMING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
A VERY WARM WEEK AHEAD FOR THE MOST PART, WITH A COUPLE OF
DEVIATIONS. THE FIRST ONE IS THE SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
THAT WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEWPOINT ADVECTION, BRINGING DEWPOINTS OF
45-50 DEGREES TO MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE CONT DIVIDE. THE
NAM12 ACTUALLY BRINGS THE DRYLINE TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BUT
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS STILL ABOUT FROM THE DIVIDE EAST. VARIOUS MODEL
QPFS STILL VARY BUT BOTH NAM12/GFS HAVE SIGNIFICANT BULLSEYES JUST
SOUTH OF EL PASO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MODEL MUCAPES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 500-1200 J/KG (NAM ACTUALLY REACHES AROUND 2000 J/KG). ALSO
WITH STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE,
MAINLY FOR WINDS AND HAIL. THE QUESTION IS TRIGGERS. THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE OUT AROUND THE DIVIDE. DON'T SEE ANY
OBVIOUS SHORT WAVES ALOFT, SO SOME DOUBT ABOUT HOW MUCH CONVECTION
CAN KICK OFF.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY FEW IF ANY CLOUDS, WITH HIGH
TEMPS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE YET BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF, BUT BOTH SUGGEST LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER AND MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE LOW, HINTING AT SHOWERS MOST OF SATURDAY. ALSO
SHOWING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. GFS MEANWHILE KEEPS LOW FURTHER
NORTH, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL SORT OF BLEND THE TWO, BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION.
AVIATION...VALID 26/12Z-27/12Z
P6SM FEW-SCT200-250 TO START PERIOD, THEN AFTER 12Z FEW-
SCT050-070 BKN150-200 WITH ISOLATED 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040 MAINLY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-15KTS BUT GUSTY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BRING
IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN SETUP OVER THE
BORDERLAND WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO
BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR. DRY AIR WILL ALSO
RETURN ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS THESE
DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND DROP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF POOR TO FAIR VENT
RATES, VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 76 58 80 / 0 20 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 71 51 76 / 0 20 30 10
LAS CRUCES 48 74 52 78 / 0 20 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 71 52 79 / 0 20 30 0
CLOUDCROFT 32 58 41 61 / 0 20 40 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 71 52 79 / 0 20 30 0
SILVER CITY 43 66 47 73 / 0 0 20 0
DEMING 45 74 48 79 / 0 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 46 75 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 74 58 76 / 0 20 30 0
DELL CITY 48 70 50 80 / 0 20 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 53 77 56 84 / 0 20 30 0
LOMA LINDA 48 69 51 77 / 0 20 30 0
FABENS 53 77 56 81 / 0 20 30 0
SANTA TERESA 50 75 53 78 / 0 20 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 72 55 79 / 0 20 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 72 51 78 / 0 20 30 0
HATCH 46 74 50 80 / 0 20 30 0
COLUMBUS 47 76 52 81 / 0 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 48 71 51 78 / 0 20 30 0
MAYHILL 36 63 44 72 / 0 20 40 10
MESCALERO 37 65 45 71 / 0 20 40 10
TIMBERON 37 60 42 68 / 0 20 40 10
WINSTON 37 66 40 75 / 0 20 20 0
HILLSBORO 44 70 47 79 / 0 20 30 0
SPACEPORT 45 71 48 78 / 0 20 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 67 42 75 / 0 20 20 0
HURLEY 41 68 45 77 / 0 0 20 0
CLIFF 32 72 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 33 70 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 68 47 77 / 0 20 20 0
ANIMAS 45 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 76 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 76 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 73 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
HEFNER/GRZYWACZ
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