157
FXUS64 KEPZ 121138
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE GILA REGION AND HUDSPETH COUNTY.
- OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- COOL BLAST OF AIR WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LONG WAVE UL TROUGH COVERS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN OR. SOMEWHERE EMBEDDED IN THAT
TROUGH IS THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL. CLOSER TO HOME, A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WANING AND EXITING, LEAVING MOST OF US DRY
OVERNIGHT. THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH STICKS AROUND FOR MONDAY, BUT WE
LOSE ANY MEANINGFUL DYNAMICS. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY.
MOISTURE, ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SIMON, WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWARD THANKS TO THE TROUGH, AND BY MONDAY EVENING THERE WILL
BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY AS MOST
OF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON STAYS EAST OF THE AREA. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER, STRONGER WAVE OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY, BUT AGAIN,
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST, ONLY GIVING HUDSPETH COUNTY A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UL LOW (SAME ONE THAT IS NOW OVER OREGON)
WILL EXIT INTO THE PLAINS, COMPLETELY PLACING SOUTHERN NM AND FAR
WEST TEXAS IN THE DRY SLOT, BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UL LOW WILL ALSO SEND COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD IN
ITS WAKE. THE GFS IS A TAD QUICKER THAN EURO WITH THE FRONT, BUT
IN ANY CASE, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY
FOR WEST SLOPE AREAS BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. CURRENT OPERATIONAL
NBM SHOWS WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WINDS WITH
THIS FRONT, SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO VERY MUCH SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH MANY OF OUR
WEST SLOPE LOCATIONS SHOWING A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 50 MPH GUSTS. FRIDAY WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL FEEL A BIT BRISK!
A PIECE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF ON THURSDAY, AND THE GFS AND
EURO SHOW A BROAD CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF THE BAJA COAST BY FRIDAY
WITH MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE IS, CHECKS AND
RECHECKS MODEL DATA, ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON, WHICH MANAGES TO
SURVIVE HAVING PART OF IT SHEARED OFF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
VRF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN080 SCT-BKN150.
AFTER 18Z...AN ISOLATED BKN060 -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER THE GILA/BLACK
RANGE. AFTER 23Z...AN ISOLATED BKN070CB -TSRA POSSIBLE OVER
HUDSPETH COUNTY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST 10-15G25 KNOTS
DIMINISHING BY MID EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
MOSTLY DRY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE GILA. ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SCHEDULE TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PLACES ALONG THE SOUTH WITH
THE INTL BORDER COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER, WITH THE
PEAK WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING THESE WINDS. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID WEEK BEFORE THIS FRONT WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 25-35% TODAY AND TUESDAY, DECREASING TO 18-25%
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOUNTAINS 35-50% TODAY AND TUESDAY,
DECREASING TO 20-35% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VENT RATE GOOD-VERY
GOOD TODAY AND TUESDAY, BECOMING FAIR-GOOD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 84 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 82 61 81 / 20 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 58 82 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 80 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 61 44 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 70 48 68 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 55 80 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 77 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 83 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 63 86 63 85 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 66 90 66 89 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 76 59 75 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 64 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 61 82 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 83 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 57 80 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 57 82 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 83 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 81 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 74 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 71 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 50 69 49 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 72 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 55 78 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 69 45 67 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 74 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 53 75 52 74 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 49 70 47 69 / 10 20 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 73 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 79 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 73 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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