345
FXUS64 KEPZ 090357
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
957 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 954 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP ON THURSDAY; SOME
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE EAST COULD PRODUCE A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH BLOWING DUST LIKELY. FIRE CONDITIONS BECOMING AT
LEAST ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 954 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE A
SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM THURSDAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND
TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE EASTERN CWA. HRRR ALSO SHOWS OUTFLOW FROM WEST TEXAS
STORMS PUSHING MORE MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN CWA, THOUGH THAT WOULD
BE IN THE LATER EVENING. THUS LOW POPS ARE PROBABLY WARRANTED FOR
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. LESS ENAMORED WITH POPS FOR THE GILA,
BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY STEADY ON THAT SO WILL LEAVE IN GRIDS.
BY FRIDAY, PACIFIC UPPER LOW CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A MUCH
BROADER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
THE ACTUAL DRY-LINE WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF OUR AREA, QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE DOES ADVECT IN, BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM THE RG
VALLEY EAST. MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FAIRLY MODEST BUT COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD FRI EVENING. SAME STORY FOR
SATURDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST. UPPER LOW LIFTS
OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH REACHING WESTERN
NEW MEXICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN, BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT MOST MODELS NOT NAMED NAM12 BRINGING
THE DRYING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW RESPECTABLE
INSTABILITY SATURDAY, SO IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS, WE COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE.
NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY. THIS RAPIDLY BRINGS LARGE DRY SLOT OVER THE CWA, ENDING
ANY CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS BEGINS A PROCESSION OF UPPER LOWS/VORT
CENTERS ACROSS TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AND EACH UPPER LOW PASSAGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS EACH
DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA
GETS FRI/SAT, THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL SEE AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY APPROACHING CRITICAL. A LITTLE
BIT OF MARCH WE RARELY SAW--SCHEDULED FOR APRIL!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 954 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKC-FEW100. AFTER 18Z...SCT-
BKN100 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BKN070CB -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH CO. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 7 KNOTS. WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8-12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURSDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO AROUND THE BLACK RANGE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT, AIDED
BY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, BUT
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE GILA AS WELL.
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, BUT THIS WON'T NEGATE
THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STARTS.
A DRIER AND WINDIER PATTERN, MORE TYPICAL OF WHAT WE EXPECT IN
SPRINGTIME, LOOKS TO SET UP FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DROP OFF AFTER THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL, BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY SET UP AT
LEAST FOR THE LOWLANDS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 87 60 86 / 0 0 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 50 81 51 82 / 0 20 10 20
LAS CRUCES 51 84 53 83 / 0 10 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 48 84 52 85 / 0 10 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 39 63 41 62 / 0 20 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 83 54 82 / 0 20 10 30
SILVER CITY 49 77 50 75 / 0 10 0 20
DEMING 51 87 53 85 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 49 84 51 82 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 20
DELL CITY 48 85 51 85 / 0 10 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 54 89 56 90 / 0 20 10 20
LOMA LINDA 53 80 55 80 / 0 10 10 20
FABENS 54 88 58 89 / 0 10 10 20
SANTA TERESA 53 85 56 85 / 0 0 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 86 59 85 / 0 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 46 85 49 84 / 0 10 10 20
HATCH 46 87 49 86 / 0 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 54 88 56 86 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 46 84 52 84 / 0 10 10 30
MAYHILL 43 75 44 74 / 0 20 10 50
MESCALERO 42 74 43 72 / 0 20 10 50
TIMBERON 42 72 43 70 / 0 20 10 40
WINSTON 41 76 42 74 / 0 20 10 30
HILLSBORO 52 82 53 80 / 0 10 0 20
SPACEPORT 45 84 47 82 / 0 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 37 78 38 76 / 0 10 0 20
HURLEY 46 80 48 78 / 0 10 0 20
CLIFF 35 85 37 82 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 33 80 34 78 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 50 80 52 78 / 0 10 0 20
ANIMAS 51 85 52 83 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 49 85 51 83 / 0 0 0 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 52 84 53 83 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 53 79 53 77 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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