695
FXUS64 KEPZ 190449
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1049 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED EAST TOWARDS THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY ON FRIDAY, AS DRIER AND
WARMER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RAMP UP ABOVE 100 IN THE LOWLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. MID-WEEK
COULD BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND JUST BARELY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. MEANWHILE, A MODERATELY STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
PUSHING DOWN FROM THE TULAROSA BASIN, AND INTERACTING WITH WEAKER
OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE BORDERLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION
AND ALLOW US TO TAP INTO SOME WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT.
VERY LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS STORMS
WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL IN COVERAGE.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW, DRIER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CUT BACK
FURTHER ON OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
BLACK RANGE, AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE ONLY REAL QUESTION IS WHERE THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (596-598 DAM) WILL DROP ANCHOR. OVER ARIZONA, OR CLOSER TO
HOME? IF IT'S THE FORMER, SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES (FOR EL PASO, AROUND
101-104), AND WEAK DISTURBANCES GRAZING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE COULD PULL IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND INTRODUCE THE
RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (THOUGH MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO). IF
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST, WE'LL WIND UP DRIER COULD BE PUSHING OVER
105 TO AROUND 108. (TO BE FAIR, IT'S LATE JUNE, THE HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY-SPEAKING, AND WE'VE GOTTEN OFF PRETTY
EASY THIS SUMMER SO FAR).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE AROUND ELP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE AND FINALLY TAP INTO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
ALOFT. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
VERY BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS DROPPING VISBY TO IFR LEVELS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. STORMS HAVE A RATHER SMALL FOOTPRINT, WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME WITH RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS
(ESP AFTER 09-10Z AT ELP).
DRIER WEST WINDS FOR FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
ONE MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS, BUT FRI WILL BE LIMITED TO AREA
MOUNTAINS AND DOWN INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. SOME BRIEF MODERATE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT
TYPICAL JUNE WEATHER WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100 OVER THE
LOWLANDS AND RH'S FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, THE SACS MAY
STAY ABOVE 10% BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE GILA WILL HAVE A PERIOD
OF SINGLE DIGIT RH'S. WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST DAYS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE 10-20MPH EACH AFTERNOON, SO SOME NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 101 76 102 / 50 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 95 66 98 / 20 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 67 98 69 99 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 97 71 100 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 74 53 77 / 10 50 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 98 72 101 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 91 61 91 / 20 0 0 0
DEMING 67 101 68 101 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 96 65 97 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 99 75 101 / 50 0 0 0
DELL CITY 66 97 67 101 / 10 20 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 102 73 104 / 30 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 66 92 68 95 / 30 10 10 0
FABENS 71 102 72 103 / 50 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 98 71 100 / 40 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 98 76 101 / 20 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 66 98 69 100 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 67 102 69 103 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 99 73 101 / 40 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 66 96 68 99 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 84 57 89 / 10 80 10 0
MESCALERO 54 86 57 88 / 10 50 10 0
TIMBERON 52 82 54 85 / 10 50 0 0
WINSTON 58 89 60 92 / 20 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 65 95 67 97 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 98 66 100 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 92 56 92 / 20 0 0 0
HURLEY 63 94 63 94 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 62 97 62 97 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 92 60 92 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 64 94 65 94 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 96 64 98 / 20 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 96 65 98 / 20 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 95 66 97 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 89 63 91 / 20 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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