592
FXUS64 KEPZ 201122
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
422 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 406 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
- GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN FAR SW NEW
MEXICO.
- TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MONDAY, IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, BUT WE'LL BE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC LOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND
WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE AS MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
A RELATIVELY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MESONET OBS SHOW ESE WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 32 MPH AT LORDSBURG PLAYA, AND SOME STEADY EAST WINDS AT
ANIMAS SUGGEST THE FRONT HAS PASSED THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND
SHOULD BE WEST OF THE ARIZONA STATE LINE BY MIDNIGHT. IT'S
SHALLOW, AND WE'RE NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
WE'RE ALSO SEEING SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS DOWNWIND OF SOME
DESERT MOUNTAIN RANGES. DESPITE SOME GUSTS WEST OF SAN AUGUSTIN
PASS, WINDS ACROSS MOST OF LAS CRUCES ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LRU
EVEN CHECKED IN WITH A LIGHT WNW WIND AT 0535 Z.
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE CRESTING THE FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS, WITH
SEVERAL GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH NOTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WEST EL PASO EARLIER THIS EVENING, AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF FMSP
JUST NORTH OF THE VISITOR CENTER. WE'VE ALSO SEEN SOME GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH SOUTH OF THE FRANKLINS.
NBM INITIALIZED WITH WINDS TOO LIGHT, SO THESE WERE TWEAKED
UPWARDS, BUT ONLY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AS MODELS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING BY 09Z OVER ALL BUT FAR SW NEW MEXICO, WHERE GUSTS 25
TO 35 MPH MAY HOLD ON THROUGH DAWN.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THAT MEANS HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER-50S FOR THE LOWLANDS, WHICH IS WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF NORMAL.
WE'LL BE BACK INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY AS A COLLAPSING RIDGE TO
OUR WEST FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST, BRINGING ZONAL FLOW
OVERHEAD.
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED, AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFF NORTHERN BAJA LOOKS TO PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE EAST. BOTTOM LINE, PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK TO HAVE INCREASED A TICK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WELL
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. BUT, IT'S NOT A SLAM-DUNK AS SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE, AND NEVER QUITE
PHASE IT WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THE OTHER TRICK WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
THE BACKDOOR FRONT CAN PUSH, AND WHETHER IT CAN DO IT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WENT WITH NBM SINCE THAT'S
THE NEW M.O., AND TO BE HONEST, THE UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH, IT'S A
TOSS UP ANYWAYS. (FWIW, THE 00Z GFS, WHICH DOESN'T ARRIVE IN TIME
FOR THE FORECAST UNDER NEW TIMELINES, HAS CHECKED IN COLDER, BUT
EVEN IT IS A SQUEAKER IN TERMS OF TIMING OF COLDER TEMPS AND
PRECIP ENDING AT ELP). BEST PROBABILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIP IS IN
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. FOR THE LOWLANDS, CHANCES INCREASE THE
FURTHER EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND THE RIO GRANDE YOU GO. THE CRUNCH
TIME LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC
WITH PASSING FEW250 HERE AND THERE TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS (AOB 10KT) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW AND POOR VENTILATION TODAY.
MIN RH 15-25%. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING TONIGHT, SHIFTING
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST INTO TUESDAY.
LOW FIRE DANGER THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND MIN RH
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERCS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER
LOCAL FORESTS DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS. LIGHT WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP VENT RATES IN THE POOR CATEGORY, WITH THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST AND THE
BLACK RANGE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 31 63 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 60 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 26 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 25 59 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 27 43 31 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 28 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 59 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 27 63 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 62 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 34 62 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 22 59 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 29 66 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 25 57 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 31 65 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 31 60 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 21 60 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 22 62 27 66 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 28 61 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 27 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 24 56 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 24 55 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 24 51 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 25 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 31 59 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 23 59 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 19 59 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 27 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 64 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 21 61 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 59 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 30 65 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 31 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 28 67 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 38 62 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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