327
FXUS64 KEPZ 192335
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
535 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
- BETTER AREA WIDE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. A
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE RGV, BUT A FEW COULD MOVE
INTO EL PASO AND PARTS OF OTERO COUNTY. THERE IS SOME GOOD SHEAR
OUT WEST WITH 35-45KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER AND CAPE VALUES UPWARDS
OF 1000J/KG. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE MORE LOW-TOPPED STORMS, BUT WITH COOLER OCT
AIR IN PLACE, HAIL WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL AS WIND. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS IN PLACE.
TUE LOOKS LIKE A MORE DOWN DAY AS WE WILL SEE SOME RIDGING TAKING
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH OFF THE CA COAST, BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AROUND TO GET A FEW STORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WED EXCEPT AS WE GET
TOWARDS 00Z, THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
BOOTHEEL AND PUSHING NORTH INTO WESTERN CWA. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THIS AREA WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. SHEAR WILL DEFINITELY BE
IN PLACE BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL.
ACTIVITY STARTS REALLY RAMPING UP GOING INTO THU AND FRI AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE, OPENS UP AND GETS INTO WESTERN MT. THE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND KEEP A GOOD
MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE SOUTH AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LINING
UP. COULD SEE SOME TRAINING THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. CURRENTLY BOTH THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT
1-2" OVER THE GILA REGION WITH A THIRD TO 1" OVER THE LOWLANDS.
LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE 2-3" BY SAT MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THEN DIFFER
ON HOW TO HANDLE THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH. EC CONTINUES TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUN MORNING. GFS HAS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION EACH RUN BUT DOES WANT
TO KEEP REDEVELOPING A TROUGH/UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND PRECIPITATION GOING. THE JET PATTERN SEEMS TO FAVOR A
EC SOLUTION THAT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE COULD
KEEP SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE EAST GOING INTO
SUN. TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO FRI-SUN WILL COOL DOWN WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
ISOLATED TS ACROSS SW NM THIS HOUR, CLOSE ENOUGH TO KDMN TO
WARRANT VCTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ADDITIONAL TS OVER N CHIHUAHUA
MAY AFFECT KELP AND S NM SITES BETWEEN 02-05Z TONIGHT. TEMPORARY
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AND -TSRA POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS VMC
WITH SKIES SCT-BKN120 AND SURFACE WINDS VRB03KT. LIGHT SE FLOW
TOMORROW, WITH ISOLATED TSRA LIMITED TO S NM MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE FOR OCT WILL
BE IN PLACE AND KEEP RH'S ABOVE 30%. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST DAILY, ESPECIALLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THU-FRI WHEN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. VENT RATES GENERALLY FAIR
TO GOOD THROUGH WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 84 62 86 / 20 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 82 60 83 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 55 79 58 83 / 30 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 80 57 83 / 40 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 60 46 62 / 40 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 78 57 79 / 60 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 52 73 55 74 / 70 20 10 20
DEMING 54 81 57 83 / 40 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 56 79 59 81 / 40 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 83 62 86 / 20 0 10 0
DELL CITY 55 84 58 85 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 88 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 78 56 80 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 57 87 60 89 / 20 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 56 81 59 85 / 20 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 82 62 85 / 30 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 80 57 83 / 40 10 0 0
HATCH 55 82 58 84 / 40 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 57 82 60 85 / 30 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 54 80 57 83 / 30 10 0 0
MAYHILL 49 73 52 74 / 30 30 0 0
MESCALERO 46 71 49 74 / 40 20 0 10
TIMBERON 44 68 47 70 / 30 10 0 0
WINSTON 47 70 50 71 / 60 30 10 30
HILLSBORO 54 77 57 78 / 50 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 54 78 57 81 / 60 10 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 48 73 51 74 / 80 40 10 30
HURLEY 50 76 53 77 / 60 10 10 20
CLIFF 51 79 54 79 / 70 30 30 30
MULE CREEK 50 76 53 76 / 60 30 30 30
FAYWOOD 52 75 55 77 / 60 10 10 10
ANIMAS 55 80 58 82 / 40 10 10 20
HACHITA 54 80 57 82 / 40 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 82 58 83 / 30 10 10 20
CLOVERDALE 53 78 56 79 / 40 10 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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