261
FXUS64 KEPZ 040421
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1021 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- COOL OCTOBER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WARMING A BIT
THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
THIS WEEK. BREEZY EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK AFTER SEPTEMBER'S HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO AS AN UPPER
HIGH SITS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
BORDER, CREEPING NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE I-10 CORRIDOR MON/TUE AS THE
UPPER HIGH WEAKENS WITH PWS RISING TO AROUND 0.9". AT THE SURFACE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ON SUN, RESULTING IN BREEZY E WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF THE DIVIDE. GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, CLOSER TO 40 MPH FOR
HIDALGO AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT WEST.
BREEZINESS LINGERS OUT WEST FOR MON WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE AS
THE GRADIENT LOOSENS. TROUGHING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS NORTHERN MX AND SOUTH TEXAS AS MOISTURE
LEVELS DECLINE, LEAVING US WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON, THEN WARMING UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
FOR MID-LATE WEEK WITH BREEZINESS RETURNING OUT WEST THU-SAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY SKC THROUGH AM,
THEN FEW-SCT060 CU DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AOB 8KTS THIS
MORNING, THEN GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS FROM E DURING AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND HIGH FUEL MOISTURE. ERC
ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER AHEAD.
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO GOOD MIDDAY VENT
RATES. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE ON MONDAY, CONTINUING OUT OF THE EAST.
LIGHT FLOW AND POOR VENT RATES ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 72 55 72 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 54 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 75 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 55 41 56 / 10 10 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 76 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 70 52 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 77 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 57 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 55 77 57 77 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 57 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 53 71 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 57 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 77 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 79 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 77 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 79 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 56 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 64 47 67 / 10 20 30 10
MESCALERO 45 67 46 67 / 10 10 10 0
TIMBERON 44 62 44 62 / 0 10 10 10
WINSTON 46 68 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 76 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 71 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 51 72 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 80 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 49 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 72 53 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 77 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 76 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 73 55 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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