040
FXUS64 KEPZ 301044
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
444 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 442 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH EL PASO METRO AREA
AND THE LOWER VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
- INCREASING MOISTURE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES COULD LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY AS
WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THE BACK EDGE OF SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 95 KNOT JET STREAK, WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER FAR SE
HUDSPETH COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND DISSIPATE AS THE JET STREAK MOVES EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE, CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK IN FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 35-40 KNOTS WILL KEEP BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HOURS EAST OF THE ORGAN AND
FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
FOR SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING, WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT A TRAILING TROUGH WILL TEASE
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US A BREEZY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SLIGHT DOWNTICK
INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S FOR THE LOWLANDS, A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. (FOR REFERENCE, THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL HIGH FOR
ELP FOR MAY 30TH IS 94, AND WE'LL BE CLOSER TO 91).
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, WHILE WEAK, SAGGY TROUGHING
PERSISTS OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SEEP
INTO THE AREA, FIRST IN THE LOW LEVELS, THEN ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL EDGE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEY, AS
MODELS SUGGEST DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
PUSH MOIST OUTFLOW WELL TO THE WEST, POSSIBLY BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TUESDAY, WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD ON BEYOND THAT, THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR MAY START
EDGING INTO SW NEW MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ELP TO SEE ITS FIRST 100 READING, THOUGH IT'S A TOSS-UP
(OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY 99). TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP
THEREAFTER AS THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVE IN. EL PASO
MIGHT HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING OUT OF THE 80S FROM MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC MOST AREAS. OVER
HUDSPETH COUNTY...SCT120 BKN-OVC250 WITH AN ISOLATED BKN090 -SHRA.
CLOUDS ALL CLEARING THIS AREA BY 16Z. SURFACE WINDS WEST 7-10
KNOTS THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 10-15G25 KNOTS AFTER 18Z, THEN
BECOMING VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY AIRMASS
CONTINUES. MIN RH IN MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FUELS TO CONTINUE TO DRY, AND ERC'S WILL APPROACH 85-90TH
PERCENTILE BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, OTHER THAN JUST A FEW AFTERNOON
BREEZES, NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A PATTERN CHANGE
BEGINS TUESDAY AS LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST AND TRANSPORT
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE FIRE ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY, PERHAPS LEAVING AREAS WEST OF THE
CONT DIVIDE MOSTLY DRY, AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN LIKELY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND BURN SCAR
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST
PUT A DENT IN THE FIRE WEATHER FOR THE SEASON.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS AND GILA/BLACK RANGE MTNS...5-10% TODAY/SUNDAY,
INCREASING TO 8-15% MONDAY AND 20-35% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS...10-15% TODAY/SUNDAY, INCREASING TO
15-25% MONDAY AND 30-45% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENT RATES VERY
GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN FAIR-GOOD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 96 71 99 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 64 94 63 94 / 0 10 10 20
LAS CRUCES 57 94 60 97 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 62 94 67 95 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 47 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 86 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 97 59 100 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 92 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 95 68 97 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 54 95 61 96 / 0 0 0 20
FORT HANCOCK 61 99 69 101 / 0 0 0 20
LOMA LINDA 55 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 62 97 66 100 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 61 94 63 98 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 58 94 61 95 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 56 96 61 98 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 96 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 93 63 95 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 45 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 46 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 40
TIMBERON 42 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 47 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 91 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 54 93 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 87 45 90 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 51 88 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 93 47 97 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 87 43 90 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 54 89 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 94 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 59 93 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 93 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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