490
FXUS64 KEPZ 132328
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
528 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY,
WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS NEARING THE 100 DEGREE MARK
AGAIN. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK,
AND MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL IN THE LATTER HALF.
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND MONDAY,
WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPTICK BEGINNING TUESDAY.
- DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EACH DAY WILL BRING THE RISK OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD THANKS TO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WE ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF CLOUDS OVER CHIHUAHUA, EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY AGITATED STATE OF THE CU AND ALTO
CU, I'D SAY THE CLOUDS ARE EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM OR MCV. THE
HRRR IS BLIND TO THIS SYSTEM, BUT GIVEN A FEW ECHOS ON RADAR, I'D
SAY IT'S GOING TO BE MORE OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS. REGARDLESS, WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE'LL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE
LOWLANDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS, BUT IT WILL
ALSO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OR LESS A CARBON COPY OF TODAY BUT
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT GREATER STORM COVERAGE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE GFS IS BULLISH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF QPF. WE WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT
WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH/LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY ALSO ALLOW MORE WEAK WAVES/DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA. THUS, WE'LL CONTINUE WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL, REACHING THE
1.4-1.5" RANGE, MEANING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY
CELLS THAT TRAIN OR STALL.
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE
TIMEFRAME OF THE FORECAST WINDOW ALTHOUGH DETAILS MAY SHIFT AS WE
APPROACH THEN. OUR WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW-MOVING
TROUGH. IT WILL LIFT OUT OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY, REACH THE FOUR
CORNERS BY THURSDAY, AND THEN DEEPEN OVER NM ON FRIDAY WITH ITS
TROUGH AXIS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE SYSTEM
FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT. WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
TROUGH WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER. WITH THE TROUGH'S DEPARTURE ON SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE
THAT DRIER AIR BUT RAIN / STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE WITH MUCH
LESS COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
SCT100 SCT-BKN250. SCATTERED OVC050CB -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH ISOLATED BKN060CB -TSRA OVER THE LOWLANDS. GUSTY WINDS 35-45
KNOTS NEAR SOME STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DONE BY AROUND 08Z.
ALL TAF SITES COULD EITHER SEE A QUICK THUNDERSTORM OR ONE IN THE
VICINITY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. WE WILL
BE ENTERING A VERY MOIST PATTERN WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS DECREASE.
MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 20S WILL SEE A STEADY
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
DAILY, PEAKING IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD, WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERNS. WINDS, APART FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE LIGHT WHILE VENT CATEGORIES WILL RANGE
GOOD TO VERY GOOD TODAY, DECREASING TO FAIR TO GOOD FOR MONDAY,
AND THEN POOR TO GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 72 93 / 20 20 30 30
SIERRA BLANCA 68 94 66 92 / 20 10 20 30
LAS CRUCES 69 94 66 91 / 20 20 40 20
ALAMOGORDO 71 95 68 92 / 20 30 40 30
CLOUDCROFT 52 71 51 69 / 20 20 30 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 91 67 88 / 20 60 50 40
SILVER CITY 63 86 61 84 / 30 50 60 70
DEMING 68 93 66 90 / 20 30 40 30
LORDSBURG 69 90 67 87 / 30 40 50 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 95 72 93 / 20 20 30 30
DELL CITY 70 97 69 95 / 20 10 20 30
FORT HANCOCK 74 100 72 98 / 20 20 20 40
LOMA LINDA 68 89 66 87 / 20 20 20 20
FABENS 72 97 70 95 / 20 20 20 30
SANTA TERESA 70 94 68 91 / 20 20 30 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 96 72 93 / 20 30 40 40
JORNADA RANGE 70 94 67 91 / 20 40 40 40
HATCH 70 96 68 93 / 20 30 50 40
COLUMBUS 72 94 70 91 / 20 30 40 30
OROGRANDE 69 93 66 91 / 20 30 30 30
MAYHILL 58 84 57 82 / 20 40 20 90
MESCALERO 57 83 55 81 / 20 30 40 70
TIMBERON 55 81 54 79 / 20 20 30 60
WINSTON 59 82 56 80 / 30 60 50 80
HILLSBORO 68 90 66 87 / 20 40 50 60
SPACEPORT 68 93 65 90 / 20 40 50 50
LAKE ROBERTS 58 84 56 82 / 30 50 60 80
HURLEY 64 88 62 85 / 30 50 50 60
CLIFF 67 92 64 89 / 30 50 60 60
MULE CREEK 64 87 62 85 / 30 50 50 50
FAYWOOD 66 87 64 85 / 30 40 50 50
ANIMAS 68 90 67 87 / 40 50 50 60
HACHITA 68 90 66 87 / 30 50 40 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 90 65 88 / 30 50 40 60
CLOVERDALE 64 85 63 82 / 40 40 40 80
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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