550
FXUS64 KEPZ 032340
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
440 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 440 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
- RECORD WARMTH AGAIN ON THIS AFTERNOON, 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO
CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- COOL FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY EAST WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS
ABNORMALLY WARM ACROSS THE BORDERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN THREATEN DAILY RECORDS, WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. A
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CO THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH MODEST LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER NE NM.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE BREEZY END, OUT OF THE WEST AT
15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO
BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME OF THE MORE DUST PRONE ACROSS
COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY, DECREASING AFTERNOON
WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH, BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERS THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACNW AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN REGION, BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN OVER NM ON
THURSDAY. THE INITIAL LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF CO WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING
TRAILING ACROSS NM. COMBINED WITH DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING, WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH BLOWING DUST
CONCERNS ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS AND I-10 CORRIDOR. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO COOL BACK INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER (WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK), THE MAIN THING TO WATCH AND
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION REMAINS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKEND'S
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW. GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE
SUITES, ALONG WITH LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW (THE ONE MENTIONED FOR FRIDAY) WILL CUTOFF AND RETROGRADE
OVER BAJA CA AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
STRENGTHENS. THIS TREND IN GUIDANCE FAVORS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME (DAY 6-10 TIMEFRAME).
ALL IN ALL, MODELS HAVE BEEN REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES, THUS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH THIS SIGNAL, LIGHTER WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES (BACK TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE) WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CURRENT NBM FORECAST CALLS FOR 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
WEST 10-15G25 KNOTS UNTIL 03Z, THEN DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE MAINLY
NORTHWEST AOB 7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE
SPRING-LIKE FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE
EACH DAY WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON, THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FUELS CONTINUE DRY OUT, BUT
STILL REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS THAT WOULD BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN, SO
NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS/HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED. VENTILATION
RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 79 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 55 38 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 70 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 43 81 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 76 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 80 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 42 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 86 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 74 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 50 84 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 79 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 79 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 41 78 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 81 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 81 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 45 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 38 69 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 38 66 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 64 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 32 69 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 76 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 39 76 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 69 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 40 74 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 38 76 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 38 71 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 73 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 44 79 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 79 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 79 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 73 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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