656
FXUS64 KEPZ 010441
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAVOR EASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY,
DIMINISHING FOR WEDNESDAY, THEN RAMP UP AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THEY WILL HOVER ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
STAYING BELOW 100.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND TUE AS
THE MOISTURE PLUME IS NUDGED EASTWARD FROM AZ BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIFT TONIGHT
AND CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT, GENERALLY ALONG THE RGV. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MODELED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACCORDING TO
RECENT HRRR RUNS, FAVORING SIERRA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES. THE
ACTIVITY PROGRESSES N AND DISSIPATES EARLY TUE AM WITH ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR TUE AFTERNOON, THE MOISTURE PLUME IS OVER NM (PWS AROUND 1.1")
AS WESTERN AREAS SEE MORE STABLE AIR AND 500-1000 J/KG CAPE FAVOR E
OF THE RGV. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MODELED DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN AREAS WHILE THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS ARE
MAINLY DRY. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SACS
WITH SLOW STORM MOTION TO THE NE. FOR WED, THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, CAPPING STORMS' ABILITY TO FIRE.
ONLY THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NM BOOTHEEL HAVE LOW STORM CHANCES WED
AFTERNOON.
THU-SAT LOOK MORE ACTIVE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CA
IS SCOOPED NORTHWARD BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST. PWS
CLIMB TO ABOUT 1.3" (75TH-90TH %-ILE FOR EARLY SEP) FOR THE LOWLANDS
WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES PROVIDING MORE LIFT THAN
JUST OROGRAPHIC. AREAS W OF THE RGV LOOK BEST SET UP FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACCORDING TO THE LREF WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGHER.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY LATER THIS WEEK AS A RESULT
OF THE MORE FAVORABLE MONSOON SET-UP. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO DRIFT
FURTHER WEST FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BASED ON GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD PUSH MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE INTO AZ AND LOWER STORM CHANCES TO END THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL E OF THE DIVIDE. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD LOWER TEMPS A BIT THU-SAT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK MAINLY FROM THE W.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
NOT MUCH LIGHTNING IS PRESENT IN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO START THE
PERIOD, SO VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR A COUPLE HOURS. KELP IS LIKELY
TO STAY DRY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS LIFT N AND DISSIPATE AFTER 8Z.
ISOLATED TS REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z, MAINLY E OF KELP WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. GUSTY W-NW WINDS LINGER FOR KDMN AND KLRU A BIT
LONGER, THEN SUBSIDING TO AOB 8KTS, SHIFTING MORE SW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN SW NEW MEXICO,
AND SHIFTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO DIP ON WEDNESDAY, BUT RETURN
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. WETTING RAINS WILL BOOST RH VALUES
OVERALL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL WEST OF THE
DIVIDE, AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 97 73 98 / 20 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 93 67 94 / 20 20 20 0
LAS CRUCES 68 95 68 96 / 30 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 95 69 96 / 20 20 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 52 71 51 72 / 20 30 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 93 70 94 / 30 20 20 0
SILVER CITY 61 86 61 88 / 20 10 10 10
DEMING 68 95 67 96 / 30 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 65 92 67 93 / 20 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 96 75 97 / 20 20 10 0
DELL CITY 70 97 70 98 / 20 20 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 100 73 101 / 20 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 67 90 68 91 / 20 20 20 0
FABENS 71 97 72 98 / 20 20 10 0
SANTA TERESA 71 95 71 96 / 20 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 95 72 97 / 30 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 95 68 96 / 30 20 20 0
HATCH 70 98 69 99 / 30 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 72 96 72 97 / 30 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 68 94 68 95 / 20 20 20 0
MAYHILL 56 84 56 85 / 20 50 20 40
MESCALERO 55 82 55 83 / 30 30 20 20
TIMBERON 54 81 54 82 / 20 30 20 20
WINSTON 57 84 57 85 / 30 40 20 10
HILLSBORO 67 93 66 94 / 30 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 68 94 67 96 / 30 10 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 85 55 86 / 20 10 10 10
HURLEY 62 90 62 91 / 20 10 10 10
CLIFF 64 93 63 95 / 20 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 60 88 60 89 / 10 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 65 89 65 90 / 30 10 10 0
ANIMAS 65 91 67 92 / 50 10 10 20
HACHITA 65 91 67 92 / 30 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 90 66 91 / 50 20 20 20
CLOVERDALE 61 84 63 85 / 70 20 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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