821
FXUS64 KEPZ 180441
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
- LIGHTER WINDS, BUT STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS, TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHTS, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE WELL ADVERTISED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERLAY NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND INCREASING PVA WILL INDUCE LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO OF ~990MB. THIS COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND REGION ON MONDAY. SUSTAINED WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MTN/BLACK RANGE AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN FOOTHILLS. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM FOR THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS. ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS DESERT LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY
IN AND AROUND DUST PRONE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
ON TUESDAY, A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL BUMP
UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MOUNTAIN CHAIN, INFRINGING ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL NOT
PUSH ANY FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY
WESTERLIES KICK INTO GEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL HOVER AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AND MERGE WITH THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION OVER THE TRANS PECOS WILL PUSH THE
BOUNDARY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE QUESTION REMAINS,
HOW STRONG AND HOW FAR WEST WILL THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PUSH WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING? THAT SAID, MENTIONABLE POPS ARE IN THE
GRIDS FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
TRY TO MAKE ANOTHER PUSH WESTWARD ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER FAR EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS JUST MENTIONED WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
..REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
DRY WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO WIN OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW TO SCT AT 25KFT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BECOMING SKC BY DAY BREAK. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 13-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
23-28 KNOTS. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR KELP AND KDMN AS
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAIN GUSTY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN PLACES, AND BLOCKAGES IN
OTHERS. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. FOR THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS AND WIND NINJA INDICATE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET, AND BECOME RATHER VARIABLE
WITH DIRECTION. ON THE SEVEN CABINS FIRE, LIGHT ESE WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE NE FLANK OF THE CAPITAN RIDGE, WITH WSW
WINDS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE, AND STRONGER SW WINDS ALONG THE
RIDGETOP. BUT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM, STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LOOKS TO RETURN, AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING, AND IN THE SACRAMENTO ZONE, THERE
IS NO BREAK FROM TODAY'S RFW, THOUGH THE LULL AND VARIABILITY
BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT IS NOTED.
GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MID-MORNING ACROSS THE WIDER AREA, AND
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY, AS WINDS
THERE LOOK TO TAPER OFF VERY QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST OF
EL PASO.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WON'T
PUSH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WILL INTERRUPT AND WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT. WE'LL SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS A RESULT,
THOUGH SSW WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN FAR SW NEW MEXICO, WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
DRYLINE SLOSHING WILL TRY TO BRING EAST WINDS AND ENHANCED
MOISTURE INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS EACH MORNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO STAY OUT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANSPECOS REGION IN TEXAS.
BREEZY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST TO THE
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND FLIRTING WITH, BUT LIKELY FALLING
SHORT OF THE LOWER END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 55 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 56 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 63 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 76 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 88 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 96 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 61 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 57 88 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 89 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 75 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 49 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 46 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 46 75 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 54 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 75 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 48 80 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 53 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 84 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 84 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT MONDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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