172
FXUS64 KEPZ 120453
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1053 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THEN THEY'LL CLIMB QUICKLY NEXT
WEEK TO RECORD LEVELS.
- BREEZY WEST WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, AND GUSTIER WINDS
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
EASTERLY FLOW IS PUSHING WESTWARD, THOUGH I HESITATE TO CALL IT A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GIVEN LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
EITHER SIDE OF THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO FAIRLY LIGHT,
BUT DESPITE THAT WE'VE SEEN SOME GUSTS AROUND 33 MPH AT FRANKLIN
MOUNTAINS STATE PARK (TOM MAYS UNIT, WEST SIDE). THAT'S PROBABLY
AS HIGH AS WE'LL SEE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF TODAY'S HIGHS, WITH
MID-70S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS.
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL PROMOTE A WARMING
TREND FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-80S IN THE
LOWLANDS AGAIN. WE'LL BE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF RECORD HIGHS
AT EL PASO ON ALL THREE DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL SUNDAY, THEN WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE
WITH SOME GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN SW NEW MEXICO, JUST AHEAD
OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT'LL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THAT FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS TO WEST-FACING
SLOPES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES (BIGGEST
CHANGES EAST, LOWEST TO THE WEST) IN ITS WAKE ON MONDAY. BUT EVEN
STILL, HIGHS KNOCKED BACK TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AROUND EP
AND LC WILL JUST BRING US RIGHT BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
TUESDAY WILL BE A RECOVERY DAY, AND BEYOND THAT, ENSEMBLES STILL
SUGGEST A STEEPER WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LOWLANDS COULD BE HEADING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS STAY ON
TRACK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE WIND
SHIFT HAVING PUSHED THROUGH ELP AND LRU ALREADY. THE AIR MASS
DIFFERENCE IS NEGLIGIBLE, SO IT'S DIFFICULT TO CALL IT A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND
WHILE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MORNING, LIGHTER WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
YESTERDAY'S STORM SYSTEM HAS PASSED, AND IS WELL TO OUR EAST,
MOVING AWAY. IT BROUGHT PLENTY OF CLOUDS, AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT NOT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE AREA. THE SW AND WESTERN PORTIONS GOT
THE BEST RAIN, WITH 0.50-0.70" OVER THE GILA AREA MOUNTAINS, ALONG
THE AZ BORDER...SAME FOR THE BOOTHEEL. LUNA COUNTY GOT 0.25-0.30",
BUT ELSEWHERE BARELY MEASURABLE TO ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. THE SHORT
SPIKE IN CLOUD COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND HIGHER RH HAVE
HELPED TO REVERSE THE FUEL DRYING SHORT TERM, BUT THAT WILL
QUICKLY REVERSE STARTING TODAY.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF YESTERDAY'S STORM WE ARE NOW UNDER A DEEP NW
FLOW PATTERN, ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE E PAC, OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA. THIS NW
FLOW WILL BEGIN A RAPID, AND SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OF THE REGION. WE
WILL ALSO BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK, AFTER A FLAT TREND TODAY
AND TOMORROW, AND DESPITE A ONE-DAY COOLING ON MONDAY.
SATURDAY IS OUR NEXT DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER, AS A MINOR
TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH, AND KICKS WINDS UP INTO THE MARGINAL
TO LOW-END WINDY CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RH
WILL DROP HARD TODAY, AND FRIDAY, AND BE IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON,
RIGHT NEAR RFW CRITERIA. FOR NOW WE ARE HOLDING OFF, AS FUELS ARE
NEAR AVERAGE, AND WINDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE. HOWEVER, KNOW THAT
THE RH WILL BE CRITICALLY DRY, AND FUELS WILL BE TRENDING DRIER.
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE MORE VERY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH SIMILARLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION
FROM THE EAST, WITH A STRONG WINDSHIFT, AND GUSTY EAST WINDS. NO
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED, SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THUS, FOR
MONDAY - BEHIND THE FRONT, THE BUMP IN RH IS MARGINAL, WITH A 10
DEGREE DROP IN MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY.
TUESDAY, ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE IN AND PARK OVERHEAD. WE WILL BE QUITE DRY, WITH FEW
CLOUDS, AND VERY LOW RH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 15-20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THUS, ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE WARMTH, INSTABILITY, AND DRY
CONDITIONS, BUT STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MISSING INGREDIENT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 47 74 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 42 70 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 41 72 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 37 70 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 49 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 75 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 69 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 42 74 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 74 39 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 73 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 73 37 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 39 76 42 86 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 67 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 47 75 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 45 73 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 73 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 32 73 34 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 37 76 37 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 45 74 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 71 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 26 64 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 30 59 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 26 58 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 33 70 35 76 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 42 73 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 38 73 38 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 69 23 74 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 70 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 33 73 33 82 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 25 72 27 76 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 70 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 42 74 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 73 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 73 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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