716
FXUS64 KEPZ 120447
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1047 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
- A FEW VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL DRIFT AROUND EL PASO AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH BLOWING
DUST POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH / LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE CURRENTLY
DRIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA, AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING INTO FAR WESTERN NM, PROVIDING A
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR LIFT. THESE FEATURES ARE DRIFTING
EAST TOWARDS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50). AS A RESULT, WE'VE BEEN SEEING SPOTTY CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS POP UP AHEAD OF A BROADER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
THAT'S MOVING INTO DONA ANA COUNTY. THESE WILL DRIFT INTO THE EL
PASO AREA SHORTLY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO
HUDSPETH COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME OF THE HREF MEMBERS FROM 00Z ALSO TRY TO SPARK OFF A FEW
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS CLOSER TO DAWN IN THE SAME AREA. NOT
EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH EITHER WAY.
DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY FLUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW (SUN) AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. WEAK LEE TROUGHING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND BRING INCREASINGLY
GUSTY SW WINDS TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO SW NEW MEXICO
ON MONDAY, AND COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY, WITH SOME SPOTTY BLOWING
DUST. WINDS LOOK TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WITH IT.
ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND LIFT
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
REGION WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT SHOWERS, BUT DRY SLOTTING SHOULD
ELIMINATE THAT RISK. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY.
A VERY WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS FOR WED/THU. BUT ANOTHER HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
BRIEF -SHRA POSSIBLE AT LRU AND ELP THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED, AND COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARDS DAWN.
CEILINGS WILL STAY VFR AS WELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WILL BE REPLACED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18-19Z. WE LOOK TO STAY JUST A LITTLE
BELOW AWW CRITERIA AT ELP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WE'LL GET MORE
CHANCES AT REACHING CRITERIA IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 954 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS SWEEP OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS BEGIN TOMORROW LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE'S NOT A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL FOR RAIN, BUT THERE MIGHT BE SOME
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY FOR RAIN. THE RETURN FOR BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS BEGINS TOMORROW WITH 20FT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
GENERALLY 10-18 MPH. MIN RHS WILL ALSO DIP DOWN INTO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THE DESERT LOWLANDS WITH RHS OF 10-15%
(20-30% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS), ALLOWING FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BREEZIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH (10-15 MPH IN FAR WEST
TX). MIN RHS DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY TO 14-20% ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS (25-35% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS) ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY
OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LOW END BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH 20FT WINDS OF
10-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. CRITICAL MIN RHS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT LOWLANDS AGAIN TUESDAY AT 10-20%. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5-10 MPH. SINGLE DIGIT MIN RHS RETURN
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 84 60 82 / 30 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 53 79 53 79 / 50 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 51 79 51 78 / 30 10 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 54 79 52 78 / 10 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 41 56 39 55 / 20 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 79 55 76 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 71 44 68 / 10 0 0 20
DEMING 51 82 52 79 / 20 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 48 78 49 75 / 10 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 82 59 81 / 30 10 0 10
DELL CITY 50 82 50 82 / 30 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 87 56 87 / 50 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 76 52 75 / 30 0 0 10
FABENS 57 85 57 85 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 81 55 80 / 30 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 81 59 80 / 20 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 49 80 50 79 / 30 0 0 10
HATCH 51 82 54 81 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 83 60 81 / 30 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 79 51 78 / 20 0 0 10
MAYHILL 42 68 43 68 / 30 0 0 0
MESCALERO 43 66 41 66 / 20 0 0 10
TIMBERON 41 64 40 64 / 30 0 0 10
WINSTON 39 70 41 68 / 10 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 49 77 50 74 / 10 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 47 78 49 77 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 70 36 67 / 10 0 0 20
HURLEY 44 74 44 71 / 10 0 0 20
CLIFF 43 77 43 74 / 10 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 37 74 39 70 / 10 0 0 20
FAYWOOD 47 74 46 72 / 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 50 79 51 77 / 10 0 0 10
HACHITA 50 79 53 76 / 20 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 79 52 77 / 30 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 47 73 48 70 / 20 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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