105
FXUS64 KEPZ 110002
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
502 PM MST WED DEC 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 439 PM MST WED DEC 10 2025
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS, TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES, AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND A SLIGHT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST WED DEC 10 2025
THE MESSAGE REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED, AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN,
AND IT'S WEATHER AFFECTS REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT. WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC, AND EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS SCAL AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS, WE CONTINUE WITH A
PATTERN THAT KEEPS A DRY W AND NW FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION, AND
KEEPS ANY LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, AND WELL INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS MEANS A
DRY FORECAST WITH MILD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MARGINAL AFTERNOON BREEZES AND CALL COOL OVERNIGHTS.
SUNDAY A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST, AS AN
UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL MEAN A SHIFT TO EAST
WINDS (LIKE WITH TODAY'S BACKDOOR FRONTAL INTRUSION), WITH SOME
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY'S MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES (LESS WEST/MORE EAST), BUT THERE WILL BE NO
PRECIPITATION AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOISTURE STARVED, OUTSIDE
OF SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
NEXT WEEK MORE OF THE SAME, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE
REGION. ONE GLITCH COULD BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING QUICKLY W
TO E ACROSS THE AREA ON MON/TUE. THE 06Z GFS RUN SHOWED SOME
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH QPF GENERATED, BUT THE 12Z GFS AND THE
ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW A WEAKER, DRIER, MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PASSAGE, WITH ALL THE MOISTURE STAYING S AND E. THE NBM KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AND POPS S AND E, SO FOR NOW WE ARE GOING WITH THAT DRY
SOLUTION, TO EXTEND OUR CURRENT DRY STREAK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MST WED DEC 10 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SOUTHEAST WINDS 7-10 KNOTS
UNTIL 04Z, THEN VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS. WINDS BECOMING
WEST/SOUTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS AFTER 20Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST WED DEC 10 2025
FAIR, DRY, AND BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES, AND SHOULD DO SO FOR THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST
COAST, EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. THE W AND NW FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH, AND KEEPING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA. THIS
WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER, WITH FEW CLOUDS, AND NO PRECIPITATION. RH
WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S EACH AFTERNOON, AND RECOVER
INTO THE 50-70% RANGE EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A BIT
WARMER, AND BE WELL ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGES. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT, WITH TYPICAL DAYTIME BREEZES, AND LIGHTER
NIGHTTIME RAINAGE.
SUNDAY WE SEE A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE PLAINS FOR A DAY
OF EAST WINDS, AND SOME GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ABOUT 5 OR
SO DEGREES, BUT REMAIN MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT WEEK, WE START
TO MARCH TEMPERATURES WARMER AGAIN, AS WE REMAIN UNDER RIDGING.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A QUICK PASSING SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT IT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH, SO WE WILL CONTINUE DRY FOR QUITE A WHILE TO COME.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS, AND
ALSO KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT, SO VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE, WITH MOSTLY POOR AND FAIR CATEGORIES DOMINATING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 64 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 33 65 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 66 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 51 34 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 65 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 33 69 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 32 67 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 42 66 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 30 68 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 36 71 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 60 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 35 68 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 31 65 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 31 68 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 33 63 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 35 67 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 31 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 59 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 31 66 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 39 68 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 30 65 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 33 68 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 33 67 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 31 72 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 32 69 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 36 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 34 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 33 68 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 68 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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