329
FXUS64 KEPZ 280439
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1039 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED
LOWLAND ACTIVITY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERALL STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS OUTFLOWS STAGNATE,
FOCUSING IN OTERO COUNTY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE MONSOON HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD FOR FRIDAY OVER
CENTRAL NM, KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE AUGUST. PWS AROUND 1.1" WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OVER AREA MTNS AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR THE LOWLANDS
IN THE AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY (STORM MOTION TO
SW). INSTABILITY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THU WITH OUTFLOW GUSTS TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SACS ARE FAVORED TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
UP TO 2" OF RAIN IN SPOTS FROM THE STRONGER CELLS ACCORDING TO THE
HREF. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECAY AROUND SUNSET.
THE UPPER HIGH IS PUSHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND BY A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST
WILL MOVE IN AS A RESULT WITH STORM CHANCES FAVORING AZ AND WESTERN
NM. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS WEEKEND AS PWS FALL TO 0.9-1" AT
KELP. PWS HOLD CLOSER TO 1.1" ALONG THE AZ-NM LINE WITH A MARGINAL
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORM MOTION TO THE N.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEGINNING ON MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS
IN KIND OF A KIDNEY BEAN SHAPE. THE LREF MEAN SHOWS PWS REBOUNDING
TO NEAR NORMAL FROM MON ONWARD, SIGNIFYING BETTER STORM COVERAGE
EACH AFTERNOON (ISOLATED LOWLANDS AND SCATTERED MTNS). INVERTED
TROUGHS MAY MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE GULF, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO
SEE WHAT FEATURES DEVELOP AND EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGH SETS UP. FOR
NOW, TYPICAL MONSOON ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A BIT
COOLER THAN WE WERE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
DRY THROUGH THE AM FOR ALL TAF SITES AS WE MONITOR AN OUTFLOW
COMING FROM OTERO COUNTY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE OTHER THAN THE POSSIBLE OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THE E-NE. WINDS SHIFT S-SE AROUND 18Z. ISOLATED TS DEVELOP LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TS MENTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
ISOLATED (20-30% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
GILA/LINCOLN FORESTS THIS AFTERNOON. SUDDEN, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE
LIKELY MID-AFTERNOON DUE TO STORM OUTFLOWS. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE, SO CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED NEAR FIRE LINES. RECENT
DRYNESS ALSO BRINGS A RISK OF NEW LIGHTNING STARTS, GIVEN THE PAST 7-
10 DAYS OF MINIMAL STORM COVERAGE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST THROUGH TONIGHT.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.
MIN RH 20-30% OVER GILA NATIONAL FOREST, HIGHER RH OVER LINCOLN
NATIONAL FOREST DUE TO OVERNIGHT STORMS. LIGHT 20-FT WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING VENT RATES FAIR. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WIND SHIFT WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AGAIN.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MEANS A DRYER TREND FOR
LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
FOR GILA NATIONAL FOREST, WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 99 75 99 / 10 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 94 66 95 / 10 20 20 0
LAS CRUCES 70 98 70 98 / 10 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 96 69 97 / 20 30 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 52 72 51 73 / 20 60 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 97 71 97 / 10 20 30 0
SILVER CITY 65 91 64 91 / 10 30 40 10
DEMING 71 99 70 99 / 10 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 72 99 70 98 / 10 20 30 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 99 77 99 / 10 20 20 0
DELL CITY 70 97 69 98 / 10 20 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 102 74 102 / 10 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 68 91 68 92 / 10 20 20 0
FABENS 73 100 73 100 / 10 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 73 98 73 98 / 10 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 98 74 98 / 20 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 97 70 97 / 20 20 20 0
HATCH 72 101 71 101 / 10 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 75 100 74 100 / 30 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 69 96 69 96 / 20 20 20 0
MAYHILL 57 85 56 86 / 20 60 20 30
MESCALERO 56 84 55 85 / 30 50 20 30
TIMBERON 54 82 54 83 / 20 50 20 20
WINSTON 60 89 59 88 / 10 40 30 30
HILLSBORO 69 97 68 97 / 10 30 30 10
SPACEPORT 69 97 69 98 / 10 20 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 90 58 89 / 10 60 30 10
HURLEY 66 94 65 94 / 10 20 30 0
CLIFF 69 99 67 98 / 10 40 40 0
MULE CREEK 67 95 65 93 / 20 30 40 0
FAYWOOD 68 93 67 93 / 10 20 20 0
ANIMAS 71 99 69 99 / 20 20 20 0
HACHITA 71 97 69 97 / 20 20 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 98 68 97 / 30 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 67 93 66 92 / 20 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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