100
FXUS64 KEPZ 040446
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1046 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 846 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE.
- GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, FLOODING, AND EVEN SOME HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. CONTINUED RISKS FOR FLOODING FROM STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OR THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION FOR TOMORROW, FROM WHAT WE SAW ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY, WHEN
WE HAD A BIT MORE ORGANIZATION, THURSDAY'S STORMS LOOK TO BE MORE
DUE TO HEAT DESTABILIZATION, AND NOT AS MUCH AS OFF OF ORGANIZED
OUTFLOWS. WE LOOK TO HAVE NEARLY THE SAME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, AND
ABOUT THE SAME INSTABILITY, BUT WE COULD SEE A BIT OF STABILITY
ALOFT AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN OVER WESTERN AREAS. THIS
COULD BE A BIT OF A REDUCTION IN STORM ACTIVITY AS A WHOLE, BUT
STILL EXPECTING IT ACROSS ALL PARTS OF THE CWFA.
FOR FRIDAY, WE SEE THE MOISTURE START TO CONCENTRATE OVER EASTERN
AREAS AS THE MAIN LOBE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR S
AND E, WITH MOISTURE FOLLOWING IT, AND DRY AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT
ON N AND NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, EVEN AS FAR AS SATURDAY, WE DON'T
SEE A GOOD FLUSH OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA, AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS, AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTER AREAS.
THUS, WE WILL KEEP IN RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY WE ARE ABLE TO FINALLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR REGION WITH DRY AIR BACK OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY TO THE NE AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW. WE WILL TREND SHARPLY
DRIER, AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THERE
MAY BE A STRING OF 100 DEGREE DAYS BEGINNING MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE, RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE HEAT, WILL SHIFT EAST, AND THUS WE SHOULDN'T SEE EXTREME, OR
EXCESSIVE HEAT, BUT STILL TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-103 RANGE FOR EL
PASO. ALSO, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT EASTERLY
SURGES OF MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR EASTERN AREA, FOR SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON MAINLY MOUNTAIN STORM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS, BUT WITH EXCEPTIONS, WITH ISO, SHORT-TERM
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO TSTM AND SHRA, AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF BLDU IN
STORMS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SKIES QUITE VARIABLE WITH LOW CIGS 050-
080 IN VCTY OF TSTM, AND REDUCED VSBY TO 1 1/2SM IN +RA OR BLDU.
OTHERWISE, FEW/SCT070-090 SCT/BKN110-130 BKN/OVC150-180.
WINDS QUITE VARIABLE WITH OUTFLOWS OFFERING GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
OTHERWISE, GENERAL WINDS SLACKING TO 5-12KTS AND MOSTLY FROM THE NE
AND E. TOMORROW, CLEARING MORNING SKIES, WITH SOME RESIDUAL DEBRIS
CLOUDS AT MID-LEVELS. CONVECTIVE CU REDEVELOPMENT AT/AFT 17Z, WITH
ISO/SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY OVER AREA MTNS BY 18-19Z, AND
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AFT 21Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE AND CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE. BY SATURDAY, THE SACRAMENTO MTNS HAS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
MOSTLY DRY BUT THEREAFTER, MODELS AND GUIDANCE DIVERGE. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WE CAN EXPECT MORE FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM STORMS. MIN
RHS TOMORROW WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH VALUES OF
20-40% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 50-55% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL DROP RHS TO CRITICAL ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY, BUT BETTER MOISTURE TO THE
EAST. BY SATURDAY, CRITICAL MIN RHS EXPANDED EASTWARD AND LOOKS
TO MAKE IT TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH CONTINUED BETTER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. BY SUNDAY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE
ENTIRE LOWLAND AREA TO DIP INTO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF 10-15%,
WITH NEAR CRITICAL RHS IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS WITH VALUES OF
19-22%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 90 68 88 / 60 20 30 20
SIERRA BLANCA 58 83 59 80 / 60 30 40 50
LAS CRUCES 59 88 60 88 / 80 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 61 87 63 87 / 50 30 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 45 66 46 67 / 50 70 10 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 88 63 91 / 40 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 54 83 55 87 / 60 60 10 30
DEMING 59 93 60 95 / 80 10 10 20
LORDSBURG 60 90 61 94 / 50 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 89 66 87 / 60 20 30 20
DELL CITY 59 88 60 86 / 60 20 30 40
FORT HANCOCK 64 91 64 88 / 70 30 40 50
LOMA LINDA 59 82 60 80 / 60 30 40 30
FABENS 63 91 63 88 / 70 20 40 30
SANTA TERESA 61 87 61 86 / 70 20 30 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 88 70 88 / 80 20 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 60 87 61 88 / 80 10 0 20
HATCH 61 91 62 93 / 80 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 63 92 65 93 / 60 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 60 85 61 85 / 60 20 10 30
MAYHILL 51 77 51 79 / 50 60 20 50
MESCALERO 49 76 50 78 / 40 70 10 60
TIMBERON 47 73 48 73 / 60 50 20 60
WINSTON 50 81 53 85 / 30 30 10 20
HILLSBORO 59 87 61 90 / 60 30 10 30
SPACEPORT 57 87 59 89 / 60 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 51 85 52 89 / 50 70 10 40
HURLEY 55 85 56 89 / 70 40 10 30
CLIFF 55 90 56 95 / 40 60 10 20
MULE CREEK 53 87 55 92 / 30 50 10 10
FAYWOOD 57 84 58 88 / 70 40 10 30
ANIMAS 59 91 61 94 / 30 10 10 10
HACHITA 58 90 59 92 / 50 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 91 60 92 / 20 20 10 30
CLOVERDALE 56 86 58 88 / 10 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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