342
FXUS64 KEPZ 051636
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1036 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1007 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND
OUT WEST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN ACTIVITY. A
DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS ON THE
LORDSBURG PLAYA FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW AS STORMS ROLL OFF
THE GILA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES COMMON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
A SIMILAR SET-UP TO PREVIOUS DAYS IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS OVER AZ/NM WITH WEAK E-NE FLOW AROUND IT
AND NOT MUCH FORCING. SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER AREA
MTNS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, DRIFTING INTO THE LOWLANDS BY THE
EVENING. LARGE DCAPE VALUES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY TO STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH. BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN
AGAIN FOR THE LORDSBURG PLAYA, LIKELY LESS OF A RISK THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH PWS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. AREAS W OF THE DIVIDE
HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY, BUT IS MARGINAL.
ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE OUT WEST THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORM CHANCES LESSEN AS YOU GO SOUTH AND EAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LAS CRUCES AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS NORTHWEST FOR THU, BRINGING IN SOME ADDED
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST (PWS 1.1-1.2"). STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO
INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AS A RESULT WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK
OF HEAVY RAINFALL, FOCUSING OVER SW NM. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO
50 MPH AND BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU FOR SOUTHERN
NM. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR FAR WEST TX.
NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN THE UPPER HIGH IS MODELED INTO NEXT WEEK,
SITTING CLOSE TO THE FOUR CORNERS. STORM CHANCES TREND DOWN FOR FRI
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA MTNS AND WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN
FAVORED FOR STORMS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWLANDS TO END
THE PERIOD. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE MONSOON HIGH MAKING
A NEW HOME OVER THE GULF COAST LATER NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD RAMP UP
OUR MONSOON FLOW AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES. PWS LOOK TO REACH AROUND
1.25" AT KELP AFTER WED ACCORDING TO THE LREF. THIS PATTERN IS
SOMETHING TO MONITOR INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS STAY WARM TO HOT INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS CLOSE BY.
THE LOWER RGV WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THU WITH A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE HIGH MIGRATES A BIT
FURTHER AWAY. TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS STAY NEAR
100 OR JUST ABOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE E-SE
EACH DAY OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
SCATTERED TS DEVELOP OVER AREA MTNS THIS AFTERNOON, DRIFTING
TOWARDS KTCS AND KDMN INTO THE EVENING. KTCS IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
TS TODAY OUT OF ALL TERMINALS, FAVORING 21-0Z. LOWER STORM CHANCES
FOR KLRU AND KELP (10-20%) THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW GUSTS OVER 30KTS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS AOB
8KTS FROM SE OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP OVER AREA MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY TO STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. BETTER STORM COVERAGE OVER GILA TODAY COMPARED TO
LINCOLN. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OUT WEST. LIGHT SE
FLOW OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS TODAY. STORM COVERAGE INCREASES A BIT FOR
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE S NM LOWLANDS INTO THE
EVENING. THE MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS OUT WEST FOR
TOMORROW. WINDS STAY LIGHT FROM THE SE FOR THU. STORM CHANCES
DWINDLE INTO THE WEEKEND, FAVORING WESTERN AREAS WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
MIN RHS DROP TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL. TEMPS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 15-40% INTO THE WEEKEND. VENT RATES WILL BE
FAIR TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 102 75 100 / 10 10 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 98 68 97 / 0 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 71 100 68 98 / 20 40 60 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 99 70 98 / 10 30 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 54 75 53 75 / 20 50 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 99 70 99 / 20 30 40 10
SILVER CITY 64 92 63 92 / 20 50 30 60
DEMING 70 101 69 99 / 20 30 40 0
LORDSBURG 69 98 69 97 / 30 30 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 102 75 100 / 10 10 40 0
DELL CITY 72 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 76 105 76 104 / 0 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 70 95 70 94 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 75 102 75 101 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 74 100 72 98 / 10 20 50 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 101 74 99 / 20 30 50 10
JORNADA RANGE 72 100 70 98 / 20 40 50 10
HATCH 72 103 70 102 / 20 40 60 10
COLUMBUS 74 101 73 100 / 10 30 50 0
OROGRANDE 71 99 70 97 / 10 10 30 10
MAYHILL 59 87 58 87 / 10 30 20 30
MESCALERO 59 87 57 87 / 20 50 30 50
TIMBERON 57 85 56 84 / 10 30 20 40
WINSTON 63 90 60 91 / 20 50 20 20
HILLSBORO 69 98 67 97 / 20 30 30 10
SPACEPORT 70 99 68 99 / 20 40 50 10
LAKE ROBERTS 59 91 58 91 / 20 60 20 70
HURLEY 65 95 64 95 / 20 50 30 30
CLIFF 66 98 66 98 / 30 50 30 60
MULE CREEK 64 93 63 94 / 30 40 20 70
FAYWOOD 68 95 66 95 / 20 30 30 20
ANIMAS 69 99 70 98 / 30 40 60 10
HACHITA 68 98 68 97 / 20 40 50 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 97 68 96 / 30 40 50 10
CLOVERDALE 64 91 65 92 / 30 50 60 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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