706
FXUS64 KEPZ 061721
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1121 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
- WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS RISING
INTO THE LOWER 90'S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL JET
WILL RESPOND AS WELL, PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OVERLAYING THE BORDERLAND REGION. BAGGY TROUGHING ACROSS NM
WILL LEAD TO LOW-END BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY WEST AT
10-20 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
ON THURSDAY, AN ORPHAN CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND INTO NORTHER CHIHUAHUA. SAID
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL IN MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MODEST MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATED
WEATHER GRIDS REFLECT THAT WITH 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE I-10
CORRIDOR IN HUDSPETH COUNTY. A WEAK SIDEDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RESPOND
POST FROPA, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL TREND UP FROM THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
BY THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OFF TO OUR
WEST. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES RESPONDING. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS
THE DESERT LOWLANDS. ON SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST, WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL AT ALL AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION.
THEREAFTER, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WILL BE
THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ADVECT NORTH WITH THE RETURN
OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC TO FEW250.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AT 9-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-
24 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA AS DRY AIR MOVES
IN ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM, RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP ERC VALUES BELOW 75TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER,
WITH THE RETURN OF DRIER AIR, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND DAILY
AFTERNOON BREEZES, ERC VALUES WILL RESPOND, INCREASING BACK ABOVE
80TH PERCENTILE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER-WISE, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RESUME...MAINLY DUE TO SUB-CRITICAL RH VALUES. RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK TO AND
EVENTUALLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THIS WEEK. IN TERMS OF
WINDS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO LOW-END BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR WIND EVENTS IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE
ONLY THING TO NOTE FOR WINDS, IS THE PROGGED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH WINDS TURNING
BACK TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 83 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 77 50 80 / 0 0 10 40
LAS CRUCES 47 79 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 78 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 58 38 63 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 78 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 72 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 82 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 43 79 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 81 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 78 49 85 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 52 86 55 88 / 0 0 20 30
LOMA LINDA 49 75 52 79 / 0 0 10 10
FABENS 51 84 55 87 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 48 80 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 80 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 79 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 82 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 82 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 78 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 35 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 36 68 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 36 66 39 71 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 36 71 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 48 76 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 45 78 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 74 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 75 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 41 80 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 76 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 75 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 45 79 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 44 79 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 80 50 84 / 0 0 10 0
CLOVERDALE 46 75 49 80 / 0 0 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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