780
FXUS64 KEPZ 010425
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
925 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 927 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
- TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY EAST WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MIDWEEK.
- NO RAIN OR HIGH-IMPACT WIND IN SIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
WE WILL REMAIN IN A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD THANKS TO A RIDGE WEST - TROUGH EAST PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. THE UL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL WARM HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. ON
TUESDAY, A S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS, BRINGING A
COOLER AIR MASS WITH IT. THIS AIR MASS IS SET TO ARRIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG WEST-FACING
SLOPES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, AND HIGHS WILL DROP AROUND 5
OR SO DEGREES. THIS S/W TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALSO CAUSE THE RIDGE
TO RETREAT BACK WEST.
MID-WEEK ONWARD A REX BLOCK WILL FORM OVER THE PACIFIC WITH SOME
EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW THE LOW WITHIN THE
REX BLOCK LIFTING NORTHEAST, BUT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO THE
AREA. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF, SO IT WOULD JUST
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THE GFS LIFTS IT THROUGH ON FRIDAY
AND THE EURO ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC-FEW250. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
STILL LOOKING AT MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOUT TO ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER COLORADO
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25
MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20
TO 30 PERCENT, EVEN HIGHER OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
THIS BIT OF WIND AND DEEPER MIXING WILL BOOST VENT RATES
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY, WITH "GOOD" OR BETTER
CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. POOR CONDITIONS WILL
HOLD ON IN THE TULAROSA BASIN. HIGHER ELEVATION SITES WILL HOLD
ONTO "FAIR" CONDITIONS TUESDAY, BUT THEY WILL WORSEN ELSEWHERE,
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 35 65 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 31 60 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 29 61 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 45 28 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 62 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 33 60 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 31 64 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 31 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 38 63 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 59 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 33 67 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 58 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 33 66 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 32 62 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 62 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 28 63 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 65 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 34 64 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 58 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 26 56 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 28 52 32 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 57 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 34 62 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 28 62 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 29 61 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 29 68 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 65 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 60 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 30 64 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 29 62 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 63 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 60 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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