200
FXUS64 KEPZ 112357
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
557 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
- TRIPLE DIGIT LOWLAND HEAT AGAIN TODAY. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF EL PASO COUNTY AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
UNTIL 9 PM MDT TONIGHT.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
- MOISTURE WILL GIVE THE AREA SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS
WEEKEND. TRENDING DRY AND HOT AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE HEAT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN LOWLANDS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL 9 PM MDT TONIGHT. DRY,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO
MEANDER OVERHEAD, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACHING THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL GET A CHANCE OF RELIEF
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO SEEP INTO OUR AREA. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR TOMORROW, SO POPS WILL
BE MENTIONABLE AT BEST FOR THE EL PASO METROPOLITAN AREA. HUDSPETH
AND OTERO COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
TOMORROW. OUTFLOW WINDS AND A MARGINAL RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY FALL TO AT OR JUST
UNDER THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
SOUTHWEST OF US. POPS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN FRIDAY'S DUE
TO MOISTURE NOT BEING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR CONTINUOUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWLANDS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE AREA, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW HEAVY THE RAIN WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL FALL
PERSISTS. GFS LEANS SLIGHTLY HEAVIER EAST OF THE FRANKLINS, WHILE
THE ECMWF LEANS LIGHTER ON RAIN AND HAS IT FALLING MORE WEST INTO
NEW MEXICO. NONETHELESS, BOTH EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN STARTING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER NEW MEXICO, AND WITH IT ARE DRIER CONDITIONS AND
MORE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWLANDS. MAYBE A HEAT
ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY, WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STORMS TO OUR
NORTHEAST, EAST AND WAY TO OUR SOUTH COULD GIVE US A FEW EXTRA
HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS LATER TONIGHT. I WILL UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OUR
CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL BECOME UNLIMITED BUT WITH THE MOISTURE WE
WILL SEE THE RETURN OF AT LEAST SOME HIGH AND MID CEILINGS BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TO
THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AS MIN RHS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5-10%, ESPECIALLY UP IN GILA
NATIONAL FOREST. WINDS WILL BLOW FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5-10
MPH. VENTILATION RATES WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO EXCELLENT. DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED TODAY. MIN RHS WILL TREND UP TO 20-35% THROUGH
MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA TOMORROW, BRINGING RELIEF TO THE
VERY LOW RHS ACROSS THE AREA, AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WILL
MAINLY BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE IN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IN LINCOLN NATIONAL
FOREST, THEN THEY WILL SPREAD TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. FORECAST TRENDS DRY AND HOT AGAIN MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 102 75 102 / 0 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 95 65 95 / 0 40 30 10
LAS CRUCES 68 99 68 99 / 0 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 99 69 98 / 0 30 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 52 77 / 0 60 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 98 70 98 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 62 93 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 69 102 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 100 73 100 / 0 20 10 0
DELL CITY 69 97 65 99 / 0 30 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 74 102 71 102 / 0 30 10 10
LOMA LINDA 69 93 66 93 / 0 30 10 0
FABENS 72 102 70 103 / 0 20 10 0
SANTA TERESA 70 99 69 99 / 0 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 99 75 99 / 0 20 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 99 68 99 / 0 10 10 0
HATCH 68 102 69 102 / 0 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 75 101 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 97 66 97 / 0 20 20 0
MAYHILL 59 84 57 88 / 0 60 30 60
MESCALERO 57 87 56 87 / 0 50 10 20
TIMBERON 56 82 53 84 / 0 40 30 20
WINSTON 60 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 68 96 68 95 / 0 10 0 20
SPACEPORT 64 98 65 98 / 0 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 94 59 93 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 64 95 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 98 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 67 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 67 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 96 67 97 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 64 91 64 92 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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