926
FXUS64 KEPZ 191144
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
544 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED EAST TOWARDS THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY TODAY, AS DRIER AND WARMER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. MID-WEEK
COULD BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BLOSSOMING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND JUST BARELY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. MEANWHILE, A MODERATELY STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
PUSHING DOWN FROM THE TULAROSA BASIN, AND INTERACTING WITH WEAKER
OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE BORDERLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION
AND ALLOW US TO TAP INTO SOME WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT.
VERY LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS STORMS
WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL IN COVERAGE.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW, DRIER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CUT BACK
FURTHER ON OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
BLACK RANGE, AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE ONLY REAL QUESTION IS WHERE THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (596-598 DAM) WILL DROP ANCHOR. OVER ARIZONA, OR CLOSER TO
HOME? IF IT'S THE FORMER, SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES (FOR EL PASO, AROUND
101-104), AND WEAK DISTURBANCES GRAZING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE COULD PULL IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND INTRODUCE THE
RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (THOUGH MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO). IF
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST, WE'LL WIND UP DRIER COULD BE PUSHING OVER
105 TO AROUND 108. (TO BE FAIR, IT'S LATE JUNE, THE HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY-SPEAKING, AND WE'VE GOTTEN OFF PRETTY
EASY THIS SUMMER SO FAR).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO MODEST BREEZINESS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FROM W-SW. DRIER AIR PUSHES STORM CHANCES EAST,
KEEPING THE TERMINALS DRY. AN OUTFLOW MAY REACH KELP IN THE
EVENING FROM SE. OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM TODAY'S
CONVECTION. FEW CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY, PUSHING STORM CHANCES EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. VIRGA SHOWERS OR A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK RANGE WITH SOME CUMULUS BUILDUP OTHERWISE IN
FWZ110. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE HAZARDS IN THE
SACRAMENTO'S AND HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT HIGH. MODESTLY BREEZY WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WITH LOW RHS, RESULTING IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND CONTINUES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NO CHANCE OF STORMS AFTER TODAY. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND DUE TO BREEZY WEST WINDS AS
FUELS DRY OUT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 12-20% TODAY OUTSIDE OF FWZ113, WHICH IS
25-40%; FALLING TO 5-15% BY SUN. VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO VERY
GOOD TODAY, THEN GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 98 68 99 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 101 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 68 101 67 101 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 97 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 67 101 68 103 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 104 74 106 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 95 70 95 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 100 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 103 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 101 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 89 59 90 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 57 88 57 90 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 54 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 60 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 66 100 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 92 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 63 94 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 62 97 60 97 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 98 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 98 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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