614
FXUS64 KEPZ 260406
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1006 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND..SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
- DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF POLO BEGINS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE HELP OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL RETURN.
- SKIES CLEARING WEDNESDAY, WITH A PLEASANT BACK END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME NOW MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TAIL DOES EXTEND BACK ACROSS
HUDSPETH COUNTY, WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PERSISTS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH HUDSPETH AND FAR EAST EL PASO
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. RADAR IS SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG
STORMS ORIGINATING NEAR SAMALAYUCA AND NOW INTO FAR SE EL PASO
COUNTY WITH HIGH REFLECTIVE AND MESH READINGS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE A FEW STRAY
STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN SACS BUT ARE RAPIDLY MOVING
EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RIDGING FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH, BRINGING IN MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WITH SUPPRESSED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
VORT CENTER OR POSSIBLE MCS OVER THE SIERRA MADRES OF MEXICO
SATURDAY AND THIS FEATURE MOVES SOME MOISTURE UP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME RAIN UP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO AREAS WEST OF
THE RG VALLEY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF POLO REMNANTS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS IT GRADUALLY GETS ABSORBED BY MID-LATITUDE LOW
SWEEPING INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY. LATEST GFS RUN BRINGS THE REMNANTS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS, WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT A BIT FURTHER WEST OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS CORRESPONDS BETTER TO OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST TRACK. BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL DANGEROUS
IMPACTS ON OUR AREA, BUT THE ECMWF PATH WOULD ESPECIALLY IMPACT
THE ENTIRE CWA. PWS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT CENTER AND THEN AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE KINDS OF PWS ARE AROUND 220% OF
NORMAL AND LIKELY RECORD HIGHS. OBVIOUSLY WE ARE LOOKING AT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH FLOOD POTENTIAL, THOUGH BRIEFER THAN THIS
RECENT EVENT WE JUST EXPERIENCED. GFS ALSO KEEPS WELL DEFINED
SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE MID-LATITUDE
LOW OVER CENTRAL OR WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS PWS DROP TO UNDER
ONE INCH. UPPER LOW WILL STILL PROVIDE LIFT AND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY
THE UPPER LOW IS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS (SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE
ECMWF), WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA.
NEXT PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AFTER
WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE NICE DRYING OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT060 SCT250. OVER
EASTERN EL PASO AND WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY...ISOLATED BKN050CB
TSRA UNTIL AROUND 08Z. AFTER 18Z INCREASING CU FIELDS OF
SCT080-100.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THANKS TO THE RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY, MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY.
MIN RH'S WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 30% INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AND OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. WE WILL BE DRY THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 85 63 86 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 84 61 84 / 30 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 61 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 82 60 84 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 65 45 68 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 80 59 80 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 56 77 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 60 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 61 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 86 63 86 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 62 86 59 87 / 40 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 66 91 66 90 / 30 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 61 80 62 81 / 30 0 0 0
FABENS 64 88 63 89 / 40 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 84 61 84 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 82 60 83 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 62 83 61 83 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 63 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 81 58 82 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 79 49 80 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 75 50 78 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 51 73 48 75 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 51 76 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 59 81 60 81 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 59 81 57 81 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 79 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 56 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 49 86 41 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 81 38 81 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 62 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 61 84 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 59 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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