893
FXUS64 KEPZ 021850
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1250 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE.
- GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, FLOODING, AND EVEN SOME HAIL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS. FLOODING FROM STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- RAPID WARMUP SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE EL PASO COULD SEE
IT'S FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT OF THE YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WEAK MAIN LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF SOCAL,
BUT CLOSER TO HOME A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL HELP
BRING AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY TODAY. ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE HAS
PUSHED INTO THE AREA WITH PWS OF 0.8"-1.0" GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV). THIS WILL BE THE MAIN ACTION ZONE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE GILA REGION. MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 58+ MPH POSSIBLE
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A FAIRLY LARGE OUTFLOW
FROM STORM ACTIVITY OUT EAST THAT WILL SPREAD WESTWARD EARLIER
TONIGHT AROUND 5-7PM. THE OUTFLOW LOOKS TO CROSS THE EL PASO METRO,
LAS CRUCES AND EVEN INTO THE DEMING AREA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION,
DCAPES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SUGGESTING
1500-1700 J/KG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS CONFIRMING THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAJECTORY OF STORMS EAST OF THE RGV COULD SPELL FLOODING ISSUES
AS WELL. SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
MORE AREAWIDE STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW WITH JUST A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE WITH PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 0.9"-1.0" TOMORROW. HI-RES
MODELS ARE ILLUSTRATING THE INITIAL STORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TWO WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
(NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS) THAT WILL THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD, AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPS IN
MEXICO THAT DRIFTS NORTHWARD BEFORE EVENTUALLY MEETING THE NORTHERN
CLUSTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS A JUICY ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WITH PWS
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, AT 0.9"-1.0". STILL GENERALLY LACKING GOOD
SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY BUT FAR SOUTHERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY COULD HAVE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. BY
FRIDAY, DECENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO STILL BE IN THE AREA BUT WILL BE ON
THE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES
DWINDLE EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SOME
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SEVERE WIND GUSTS (58+ MPH).
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WHICH
COULD CREATE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES. KELP HAS THE BEST CHANCES
TO SEE STORMS LIKE THIS BUT RECENT HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORMS
TO STAY FURTHER EAST OF TERMINALS. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A
LARGE OUTFLOW TO TRACK EAST TO WEST AROUND 5-7PM TONIGHT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH KELP, KLRU AND EVEN KDMN TONIGHT. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA, WITH STORM CHANCES
DIMINISHING
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE BEST
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY. MIN
RHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS AT 20-40% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 40-50% IN THE AREA
MOUNTAINS. FLOODING FROM STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE BOTH
DAYS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, GOOD MOISTURE WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD BUT
WILL BE LESS THAN WED/THU. CRITICAL MIN RHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE REST OF THE
AREA SEEING RHS 20-30% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 45-50% IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WE WILL ENTER A DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH CRITICAL
MIN RHS RETURNING. THE SACRAMENTO MTNS HAS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE DRY THAT
AFTERNOON. LOOKING DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A RAPID REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. CRITICAL MIN RHS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY BUT
CRITICAL RHS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SUNDAY WITH NEAR CRITICAL
MIN RHS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 20-25%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 91 67 89 / 20 30 40 20
SIERRA BLANCA 60 84 58 83 / 60 40 50 40
LAS CRUCES 61 89 59 87 / 10 30 40 20
ALAMOGORDO 61 87 61 86 / 40 30 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 46 65 45 65 / 60 60 30 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 87 62 86 / 40 40 40 30
SILVER CITY 56 83 54 82 / 0 60 30 60
DEMING 62 93 59 91 / 0 40 50 20
LORDSBURG 63 90 60 90 / 0 30 40 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 89 65 88 / 20 30 40 20
DELL CITY 60 85 59 86 / 60 30 40 30
FORT HANCOCK 66 92 64 91 / 40 40 40 30
LOMA LINDA 61 82 59 81 / 30 30 40 30
FABENS 65 92 63 91 / 20 40 40 10
SANTA TERESA 63 88 61 87 / 10 30 40 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 88 68 87 / 30 30 40 20
JORNADA RANGE 62 88 60 86 / 20 50 60 20
HATCH 62 91 61 90 / 20 40 50 20
COLUMBUS 67 92 63 91 / 0 20 30 20
OROGRANDE 61 85 60 84 / 40 20 40 20
MAYHILL 51 74 51 75 / 70 60 50 80
MESCALERO 50 75 49 75 / 60 60 30 70
TIMBERON 48 71 47 71 / 60 40 50 60
WINSTON 52 79 51 79 / 20 70 40 50
HILLSBORO 61 86 60 84 / 20 60 40 40
SPACEPORT 58 87 58 86 / 30 50 60 20
LAKE ROBERTS 53 84 51 84 / 10 80 40 70
HURLEY 57 86 54 84 / 0 40 30 50
CLIFF 57 91 56 90 / 0 60 30 50
MULE CREEK 55 87 54 86 / 0 50 20 50
FAYWOOD 59 85 57 83 / 10 40 40 40
ANIMAS 61 91 59 91 / 0 30 30 20
HACHITA 62 90 58 89 / 0 40 50 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 91 59 90 / 0 20 30 20
CLOVERDALE 58 87 56 86 / 0 20 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page