570
FXUS64 KEPZ 180503
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1003 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 926 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AHEAD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GILA/BLACK RANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 926 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MAY BE ON THE WAY, BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER
CHRISTMAS. CURRENTLY A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR
THE WEEKEND, A ZONAL FLOW (WEST TO EAST) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THAT WILL CONTINUE OUR WARM DRY WAYS WITH RECORD AND NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
EAST, BUT WITH THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO PUSH OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR EAST, SO THE WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL SLOWLY TURN OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM ZONAL TO MORE OF
A SOUTHWEST FLOW. INITIALLY THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE WARM AND
DRY, THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR
RECORD LEVELS. A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AN BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO ARIZONA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, AND A FEW STRAY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY COME ACROSS
THE BORDER INTO THE GILA REGION ON SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO, BUT
OVERALL THINGS ARE LOOKING DRY AND WARM THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST
STEERING SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER CHRISTMAS, BUT THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THIS AND KEEPING THE MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY IN ARIZONA. WILL WE FINISH
DECEMBER WITH ZERO IN THE RAIN GAUGE FOR THE MONTH? WE WILL SEE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 926 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILING TONIGHT
WILL BE UNLIMITED AND THOSE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE GENERALLY WEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE LIGHTER
THAN WE SAW ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A GREAT DAY TO
FLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
LITTLE OR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE CONTINUE UNDER THE DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. VERY WARM (NEAR-RECORD) TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED INTO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENDANT LOWER MIN RHS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 13-20% THROUGH TUESDAY. MOUNTAINS 15-25% THROUGH
TUESDAY. VENT RATES POOR-FAIR THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 42 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 37 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 67 36 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 35 53 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 40 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 67 41 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 72 37 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 69 36 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 32 73 36 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 39 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 65 42 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 38 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 69 38 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 67 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 71 36 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 40 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 36 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 65 38 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 61 36 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 61 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 64 33 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 42 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 67 34 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 67 36 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 68 38 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 72 34 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 69 35 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 67 41 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 72 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 70 36 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 73 40 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 68 46 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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