276
FXUS64 KEPZ 211856
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1256 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY WILL
RUN INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY APPROACH THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. VERY SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO WORK
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, WHICH WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PARKED OVER COLORADO TODAY, WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW STEERING SOME LIMITED, RECYCLED MOISTURE AROUND.
WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME CONVECTION FIRING UP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, THESE STORMS WILL DRIFT INTO THE LOWLANDS, BUT STRUGGLE
AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE 18Z SOUNDING
TRIES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE, WITH 1500 J/KG AND LIMITED CIN BASED
ON THE FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURE, BUT THIS DOESN'T TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT MIXING OUT OF THE DEWPOINTS, WHICH ARE ON THEIR WAY TO THE
LOWER-40S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, HEAVILY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION CHANCES, EVEN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 103 RANGE
IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WILL ATTEMPT TO CRAWL A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. VERY SPOTTY CONVECTION MAY RETURN TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THAT TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO DRIFT INTO THE LOWLANDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STRUGGLING AS THEY GO. BRIEF THUNDER AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT TCS AND LRU.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN TODAY WILL
RUN INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY DRIFT TOWARDS THE
LOWLANDS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH AN OVERALL DRYING TREND FROM SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SQUASHES CONVECTION CHANCES AREA-WIDE. WITH THE HOT/DRY
SPELL, ERCS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TOWARDS THE 75TH PERCENTILE NEXT
WEEK.
MIN RHS WILL RANGE FROM 12-20% FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH SAT, THEN
10-15%; 20-35% FOR MTNS THROUGH SAT, THEN 15-25%. VENT RATES WILL
BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 101 75 101 / 20 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 97 68 96 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 100 70 99 / 20 20 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 98 70 99 / 20 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 76 53 76 / 20 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 98 71 98 / 20 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 65 92 64 93 / 20 10 10 0
DEMING 71 101 71 100 / 20 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 72 100 72 100 / 20 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 101 77 100 / 20 10 0 0
DELL CITY 70 100 70 100 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 104 75 103 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 94 69 94 / 10 10 0 0
FABENS 74 101 74 101 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 100 73 99 / 20 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 101 75 100 / 20 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 99 71 99 / 30 10 0 0
HATCH 71 102 71 102 / 30 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 75 101 74 101 / 20 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 98 69 98 / 20 10 0 0
MAYHILL 58 88 58 89 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 57 87 57 88 / 20 10 0 10
TIMBERON 56 85 55 85 / 30 10 0 0
WINSTON 62 90 62 90 / 30 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 69 97 69 97 / 30 0 10 0
SPACEPORT 69 99 69 99 / 30 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 91 59 91 / 20 30 10 10
HURLEY 67 95 66 95 / 20 10 10 0
CLIFF 67 100 68 100 / 20 10 20 0
MULE CREEK 66 96 66 96 / 20 10 20 0
FAYWOOD 69 95 68 95 / 20 0 10 0
ANIMAS 71 101 71 100 / 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 70 98 70 98 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 99 70 98 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 68 95 67 94 / 10 0 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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