737
FXUS64 KEPZ 200506
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1106 PM MDT TUE OCT 19 2021
AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT KELP. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION...513 PM MDT TUE OCT 19 2021
SYNOPSIS
A GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEEK AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
DRY WEST, SOUTHWEST, FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
(WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON). BREEZES WILL RELAX WITH TIME THIS EVENING,
WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. RESULTANT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS AREAS OF WEST TEXAS,
AND 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS, EXCEPTION BEING AREA MTNS AND
SURROUNDING LOCALIZED VALLEYS, WHERE THE 30S WILL BE COMMON.
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY. A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
MAY APPROACH AS THE DAYTIME PROGRESSES. REGARDLESS, DRY ONCE AGAIN
AS A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE ROCKIES EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HRS, LEAVING US WITH LIGHTER
WINDS THAN THE DAY PRIOR (TUESDAY).
LONG TERM
LONG TERM STARTS OUT QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE TO NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE DURING THIS
PERIOD.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NW AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY. THESE WEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
WARMEST OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE SOME AREAS INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
THE DEEP MIXING EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NE, THERE WILL BE A
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO THE WEAK
FRONT TODAY, ONLY EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING GOING INTO
SUNDAY.
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INCREASE SW FLOW ACROSS THE CWA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AGAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS MONDAY. BY 00Z WED, THIS
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE CO/UT LINE TO
JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. EC IS FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH GFS
SLOWEST. GEFS MEAN IS IN BETWEEN AND AS LONG AS IT DOESN'T CUTOFF,
THINK A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE WIND WITH 20-35MPH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AND GUSTS EVEN HIGHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL 5-10
DEGREES WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
NEAR CRITICAL MIN HUMIDITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS OF 6 TO 14 MPH ON AVERAGE. BREEZY DAY EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH CRITICAL HUMIDITY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, BUT WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL TICKS BELOW 20 MPH. MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MIX OF GOOD TO FAIR VENTILATION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
A DRY PATTERN REMAINS SO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 54 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 80 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 79 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 58 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 77 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 71 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 44 80 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 54 85 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 75 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 52 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 80 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 77 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 44 79 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 45 79 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 71 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 39 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 39 67 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 71 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 45 77 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 35 72 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 74 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 39 78 36 80 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 36 72 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 73 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 44 80 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 44 77 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 74 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
04-LUNDEEN/04/04
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