348
FXUS64 KEPZ 131116
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
416 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 416 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
- PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A SERIES A
WINDY DAYS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
..TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 8:00PM SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE BAJA CA COAST.
DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION, NOTED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS BLANKETING THE
SKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME, SAID UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, PROMOTING FURTHER ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE. OVERCAST SKIES WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CA AND SONORA, BEFORE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/SOUTHERN NM DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING PVA AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL INDUCE SCATTERED TO POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME, AREAS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. TOTAL RAIN QPF IS 0.10-0.25" FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS
THE DESERT LOWLANDS, LEADING TO VERY LITTLE TO LOW IMPACTS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 8500-9000 FT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY FALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INTRUDES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. AS COLD AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE.
THAT SAID, ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8500-9000 FT COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE A LESS
THAN 10% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
8500FT.
..SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST SETTLING IN ACROSS
THE AREA IN IT'S WAKE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ZERO BY MID-
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY, WITH FAIR, DRY, AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID
FEBRUARY. RIDGE AXIS WITH INCREASING SW FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY, PROMOTING TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
..NEXT WEEK
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE THE START OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING
UP ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. CONSISTENT TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS MOVE
ONSHORE. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS, WITH FAIRLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SPECIFIC STORM TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTH OVER
NORTHERN AZ/NM AND SOUTHERN UT/CO. THE FIRST SPOKE OF ENERGY
(SHORTWAVE TROUGH) WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. CORRESPONDING LEE-SIDE SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA.
THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME , GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES. AS OF NOW, EACH SYSTEM
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY, OFFERING LITTLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT100 BKN-OVC250.
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z...SCATTERED BKN060 -SHRA ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, AND LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM DEMING WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
AOB 7 KNOTS, INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST/WEST 15-20G30 KNOTS AFTER 18Z
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS DIMINISHING TO WEST/NORTHWEST
7-10 KNOTS AFTER 03Z AS FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 416 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
PACIFIC STORM MOVES IN TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TONIGHT, MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FT. A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
OTHERWISE CLEARING OUT LATER IN THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OF WEST/SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE WINDY AS PACIFIC FRONTS MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO BOTH THOSE DAYS. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THESE FEATURES, FIRE DANGER WILL
LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 30-40% TODAY AND SATURDAY, DECREASING TO 15-25%
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN 20-30% TUESDAY. MOUNTAINS 40-55% TODAY AND
SATURDAY, DECREASING TO 15-30% SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN 25-40%
TUESDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD TODAY AND SATURDAY, THEN POOR-
FAIR SUNDAY/MONDAY, BACK TO EXCELLENT TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 46 67 41 73 / 60 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 41 61 38 67 / 40 30 0 0
LAS CRUCES 40 65 36 68 / 40 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 39 64 33 69 / 40 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 40 27 50 / 50 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 67 38 69 / 50 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 36 58 35 62 / 40 10 0 0
DEMING 41 67 36 71 / 50 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 62 35 68 / 60 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 67 44 71 / 50 10 0 0
DELL CITY 41 66 35 69 / 20 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 44 69 40 75 / 30 20 0 0
LOMA LINDA 41 60 40 66 / 60 10 0 0
FABENS 44 69 40 74 / 60 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 43 66 38 70 / 40 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 67 42 69 / 40 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 40 67 31 69 / 40 10 0 0
HATCH 41 70 33 73 / 40 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 44 66 39 71 / 50 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 41 65 33 69 / 50 10 0 0
MAYHILL 34 54 30 65 / 40 10 0 0
MESCALERO 30 52 29 61 / 50 20 0 0
TIMBERON 33 50 33 57 / 50 10 0 0
WINSTON 30 59 26 63 / 50 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 38 66 37 67 / 50 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 38 67 29 68 / 50 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 34 59 28 63 / 50 10 0 0
HURLEY 35 61 33 65 / 50 10 0 0
CLIFF 38 65 30 69 / 40 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 36 60 26 67 / 40 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 38 63 38 64 / 50 10 0 0
ANIMAS 41 63 37 71 / 80 10 0 0
HACHITA 40 63 36 69 / 60 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 64 36 71 / 70 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 39 57 38 66 / 80 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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