516
FXUS64 KEPZ 111047
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
447 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 446 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A FEW RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY/TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
- WARM OCTOBER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY LATE
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL HAVE MERGED/BEEN ABSORBED INTO A LARGER
TROUGH, ALIGNED ALONG THE WEST COAST. WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD WITH SOME HINTS OF
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER NM, CHIHUAHUA, AND FAR WEST TX. THE RESULT
IS ISOLATED SHOWERS, WHICH HAVE WEAKENED SOME WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE 00Z EPZ SOUNDING SHOWED SHALLOW CAPE WITH
MOST OF IT ROOTED BELOW THE DENDRITE/ICE GROWTH ZONE (-10 DEG C),
SO LIGHTNING WAS NON-EXISTENT THOUGH A FEW CELLS STILL HAD SOME
DECENT CORES ON RADAR. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE
NON-ZERO.
THE UL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET MOVING OVER NM ON SUNDAY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE, THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, FAVORING AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH THIS
SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY, FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL WANE WITH RAIN CHANCES
SHIFTING TOWARD AZ, POSSIBLY THE GILA.
UL TROUGH WILL STILL BE ANCHORED TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY, BUT
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE SIMON WILL BE PULLED FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO ENTER TEXAS. CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP FOR OUR CWA CONTINUE
TO DWINDLE, BUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM SIMON COULD STILL
CLIP PARTS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY.
THE UL LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR COMPLETELY MOVING INTO THE CWA. AS THE LOW
ENTERS THE PLAINS, IT WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD, PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES, BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO LAG A PIECE OF THE TROUGH BEHIND, LIKELY IN RESPONSE
TO THE COLD FRONT, BUT THE GFS REFORMS A CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR
SW, KEEPING US DRY. THE EURO KEEPS MORE OF THE TROUGH BACK,
CLOSING IT OFF OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, BUT THAT PUTS US IN
FAVORABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION. A LOOK AT THE LREF SHOWS THE EURO
AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE BOTH FAVORING THEIR DETERMINISTIC
COUNTERPART. NBM HAS SOME LOW TO MODERATE POPS, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE ENOUGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SCT-BKN080 SCT-BKN150. ISOLATED BKN060 -SHRA, MAINLY OVER OTERO
COUNTY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z WEST OF THE CONT
DIVIDE...ISOLATED BKN060CB -SHRA/-TSRA, SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS
THE RG VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE EAST OF THE RG VALLEY IN
THE EVENING. INFLUENCE OF PACIFIC LOW/REMNANTS OF RACHEL WILL
INCREASE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST 15-25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS WEST OF DEMING FROM NOON UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AT LOW LEVELS FOR THIS WEEK AHEAD.
MODEST AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE ACROSS THE FIRE ZONES
TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY COULD STILL SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL MOSTLY DRY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHING IN THURSDAY NIGHT CREATE A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTL
BORDER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 28-35% THROUGH TUESDAY, DECREASING TO 20-30%
WED/THU. MOUNTAINS 35-50% THROUGH TUESDAY, DECREASING TO 25-40%
WED/THU. VENT RATE VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY, BECOMING
FAIR-GOOD WED/THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 86 65 84 / 30 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 87 62 84 / 40 0 20 0
LAS CRUCES 60 82 59 81 / 20 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 63 83 60 82 / 50 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 63 45 61 / 60 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 80 55 80 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 72 49 71 / 20 20 0 0
DEMING 58 82 56 82 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 57 79 55 78 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 85 65 83 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 64 88 63 86 / 60 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 92 67 91 / 50 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 61 80 60 78 / 40 0 10 0
FABENS 67 89 66 87 / 40 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 64 84 62 83 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 85 63 84 / 30 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 82 59 82 / 30 10 0 0
HATCH 61 84 58 83 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 85 60 85 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 62 84 60 82 / 30 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 78 51 75 / 40 0 0 0
MESCALERO 51 75 50 72 / 50 0 10 0
TIMBERON 51 72 49 70 / 50 0 10 0
WINSTON 48 75 46 73 / 10 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 79 54 78 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 58 81 56 80 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 71 41 69 / 30 20 0 10
HURLEY 52 76 50 75 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 49 77 45 76 / 50 30 10 10
MULE CREEK 45 72 41 71 / 40 30 0 20
FAYWOOD 55 75 53 75 / 10 0 10 0
ANIMAS 59 80 56 80 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 57 80 56 80 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 82 56 82 / 0 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 74 53 74 / 20 30 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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