770
FXUS64 KEPZ 231654
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1054 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY, AND DRY EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRONGEST WINDS THUS FAR THIS MONTH EXPECTED SUNDAY. LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTFUL, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST, AND WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. TODAY AND
SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO
THE NORTH AND INDUCE STRONG SFC LOWS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850MB
WINDS OF 20-25KTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH
A 995MB-ISH LOW IN NW OKLAHOMA, RESULTING IN SFC GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH AND PATCHY BLDU. FAR WEST TX IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE VIS
REDUCTIONS, FALLING AS LOW AS 3 MILES. THE DEMING AREA AND
LORDSBURG PLAYA COULD ALSO SEE SOME DUST LATER TODAY. INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY COULD LIMIT THE MIXING POTENTIAL OF
THE WIND AND DUST. WITH MIN RHS MOSTLY AROUND 10% OR LOWER, NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STEADY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER FOR FRI, KEEPING WINDS ON THE
BREEZY SIDE (GENERALLY 15-20 MPH). NO BLDU IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS INCREASE FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER LOW THAT'LL BE IMPACTING CA, COMPARABLE TO TODAY'S WINDS. W
WINDS OF ABOUT 15-25 MPH ARE FORECAST WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
THAT UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE AND PASSES THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS ON SUN, BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. 700MB FLOW
REACHES NEAR 50KTS WITH 850MB WINDS AROUND 35KTS ACCORDING TO THE
LREF, SO SFC WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS. AREA MTNS AND EAST SLOPES COULD SEE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE WINDIEST DAYS OF THE SEASON
SO FAR, MAKING UP FOR THE SOMEWHAT QUIET LAST MONTH OR SO.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A THREAT SUN AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL LONG-
FUSED DUST ADVISORIES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH SUN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR NORTH,
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
LIKE TODAY, THE CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL.
ZONAL/SW FLOW RETURNS ON MON, BRINGING US LIGHTER WINDS,
BUT STILL A BIT BREEZY INTO MIDWEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WED/THU WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO END
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM THAN SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE W WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS. LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN KELP REACHING AWW CRITERIA TODAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS A TICK BELOW 20G30KT. PATCHY BLDU MAY DEVELOP
LATER TODAY WITH VIS FALLING TO ABOUT 5 SM, MOST LIKELY AT KELP.
WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET TO AOB 10KTS. SCT/BKN150-250 OVERSPREAD
THE REGION BY THE EVENING, CLEARING OUT FOR THE MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, BRINGING
BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST AT 20-25 MPH.
EXCEPT FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND 10% OR BELOW
AS FUELS DRY TOWARDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX IS
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMOKE DISPERSION TO THE EAST. ERCS
ARE IN WORSE SHAPE IN THE LINCOLN COMPARED TO THE GILA, BUT BOTH
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER WARM, DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS FOR FRI FROM THE WEST,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED-NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX.
WINDS INCREASE FOR SAT/SUN WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX EXPECTED ON SUN
EVEN THOUGH RHS COME UP A BIT. WINDS LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG FOR SUN
AT 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT 20 FEET. THE HIGHER RHS IN
FWZ113 SHOULD NOT PRECLUDE FIRE WX PRODUCTS FROM BEING ISSUED FOR
SUN AS FUELS WORSEN. RAIN CHANCES HOLD NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES STAY MILD. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUN.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 7-18% THROUGH FRI, RISING TO 12-25% ON SUN.
VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 81 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 59 42 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 81 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 47 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 81 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 57 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 82 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 85 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 71 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 39 70 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 44 82 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 77 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 41 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 75 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 76 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 83 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 82 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 82 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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