891
FXUS64 KEPZ 032329
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
529 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON BREEZES TODAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING
GUSTY OVERNIGHT WINDS AND ALSO INTRODUCING SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
- SOME MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW CHANCES, 20%,
LINGERING FOR MAINLY THE GILA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. THE FINAL LOBE OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE ONCE
AGAIN, WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND LOW-END BREEZY WINDS
(TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOBE OF ENERGY WILL PUSH A QUASI
PACIFIC/SIDE DOOR FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.
BY SATURDAY, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER, BECOMING PREDOMINATELY
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY. A EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
THEN ADVECT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN FROM THE EAST. ECMWF/GFS/LREF
AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES SHOW PW VALUES 150-250 PERCENT
OF NORMAL (FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) OVERLAYING THE AREA
STARTING ON SATURDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT. THAT SAID,
SLIGHT (20-40%) CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY, BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SIDEDOOR FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
A COUPLE OF WIND SHIFTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FIRSTLY, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AND
BREEZY TO START WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS WITH SOME REDUCTION TOWARD SUNSET. A COLD
FRONT WILL START WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA REACHING
TCS BY AROUND 2Z THEN LRU BY 4Z AND ELP AND DMN BY 6Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KNOTS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS. A SECOND WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON (~18Z) WITH DIRECTION FROM THE EAST, BUT SPEEDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG, AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT ELP VIA WHITE SANDS,
NO SIGNIFICANT VIS REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED. SKIES WILL START OFF
FEW-SCT250, INCREASING TO SCT-BKN200 BY END OF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME, PROMOTING NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL AFTERNOON MIN
RH VALUES AND LOW-END BREEZY WINDS. MOSTLY ALL AREAS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW 15% FOR MIN RH, WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000
FEET. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
A QUASI PACIFIC/SIDE DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE, OUT OF THE NORTH, THEN WILL VEER
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY REMAINING GUSTY ALONG WEST
SLOPES. TEMPERATURE WILL TREND DOWN THIS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RH VALUES ON SATURDAY, WITH VALUES
INCREASING TO 20-40 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
ENTER THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS WELL, THESE SLIGHT/LOW-END
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 75 52 67 / 0 0 10 30
SIERRA BLANCA 48 68 46 58 / 0 0 20 40
LAS CRUCES 46 73 49 65 / 0 0 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 43 74 46 70 / 0 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 30 52 32 46 / 0 0 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 72 49 70 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 41 68 45 63 / 0 0 10 20
DEMING 48 77 49 69 / 0 0 10 20
LORDSBURG 42 74 50 69 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 75 54 65 / 0 0 10 30
DELL CITY 48 72 46 62 / 0 0 10 30
FORT HANCOCK 50 77 52 67 / 0 0 20 40
LOMA LINDA 49 67 46 58 / 0 0 10 40
FABENS 52 77 52 67 / 0 0 10 30
SANTA TERESA 48 74 51 64 / 0 0 10 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 74 53 66 / 0 0 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 42 73 46 67 / 0 0 10 20
HATCH 46 76 49 70 / 0 0 10 20
COLUMBUS 51 77 54 69 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 45 72 49 65 / 0 0 10 30
MAYHILL 34 59 35 56 / 0 0 10 30
MESCALERO 33 62 34 58 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 35 59 36 52 / 0 0 10 30
WINSTON 30 65 36 62 / 0 0 0 30
HILLSBORO 43 71 46 66 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 41 73 44 68 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 34 70 41 65 / 0 0 0 20
HURLEY 40 71 43 65 / 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 37 76 46 73 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 37 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 20
FAYWOOD 44 70 46 63 / 0 0 10 20
ANIMAS 45 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 45 74 49 68 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 48 70 49 70 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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