942
FXUS64 KEPZ 281815
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1215 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
- QUIETER WEATHER, BUT WITH CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PATTERN CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH A PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY OVER OTERO/LINCOLN
COUNTIES. THEREAFTER, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING WITH IT
ANOMALOUS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AREAWIDE.
..TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERLAY A MODEST 40-60 KT 500MB JET ACROSS SOUTHERN
NM. THIS COMBINED WITH ~1000MB LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WINDS BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. RISK FOR BLOWING DUST
IS LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, VERY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF BLOWING DUST
COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND DUST PRONE
LOCATIONS.
..THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE COMING MORE
AND MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM'S EVOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, SOME OF THE DISCREPANCIES THAT REMAIN INCLUDE THE TIMING OF
SAID STORM SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THESE TYPES OF DETAILS
WILL GET IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THAT SAID, EXPECT
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO START INCREASING DURING THE WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME, WITH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY - LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT LOOK SUB-PAR,
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWER/STRATIFORM RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH ISOLATED (20-40 PERCENT CHANCE) POCKETS
OF THUNDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 9500 FEET AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE ON
FRIDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILTER IN. LOCATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET, LIKE CLOUDCROFT AND THE BLACK RANGE COULD
EXPERIENCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW LEVELS FURTHER DECREASE DOWN TO
AROUND 8500 FEET, WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY CONTINUING FOR
LOCATIONS ABOVE 8500 FEET. ALL IN ALL, WE ARE APPROACHING THE
MONTH OF MAY AND IT'S MORE DIFFICULT FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
OCCUR. THAT SAID, TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8500 FEET OVER A 24-48 TIME SPAN.
TEMPERATURES AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WILL BECOME WELL BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY 5-12
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
..SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART BY SUNDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN, IN IT'S WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND,
RETURNING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE DESERT
LOWLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT IS FORECASTED TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW/W AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SKIES CURRENTLY FEW
TO SCT AT 25 KFT, WILL BECOME SCT TO BKN AT 25 KFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SW/W AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SKIES CURRENTLY FEW
TO SCT AT 25 KFT, WILL BECOME SCT TO BKN AT 25 KFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 88 64 76 / 0 0 10 40
SIERRA BLANCA 59 84 62 75 / 0 0 10 30
LAS CRUCES 53 84 56 71 / 0 0 10 40
ALAMOGORDO 56 83 58 72 / 0 0 10 50
CLOUDCROFT 45 61 43 51 / 0 0 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 82 57 71 / 0 0 10 40
SILVER CITY 47 73 50 65 / 0 0 10 50
DEMING 51 86 55 73 / 0 0 10 50
LORDSBURG 49 81 54 71 / 0 0 10 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 86 66 73 / 0 0 10 40
DELL CITY 57 87 60 76 / 0 0 10 40
FORT HANCOCK 64 92 66 81 / 0 0 10 30
LOMA LINDA 59 80 60 69 / 0 0 10 40
FABENS 64 90 66 78 / 0 0 10 30
SANTA TERESA 58 85 62 71 / 0 0 10 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 84 65 73 / 0 0 10 50
JORNADA RANGE 53 83 57 71 / 0 0 10 50
HATCH 53 86 60 75 / 0 0 10 50
COLUMBUS 58 88 62 74 / 0 0 10 50
OROGRANDE 58 83 60 71 / 0 0 10 50
MAYHILL 48 74 48 63 / 0 0 10 50
MESCALERO 48 71 47 61 / 0 0 10 50
TIMBERON 48 70 47 59 / 0 0 10 50
WINSTON 41 74 45 66 / 0 0 10 40
HILLSBORO 52 80 55 70 / 0 0 10 50
SPACEPORT 50 83 55 72 / 0 0 10 50
LAKE ROBERTS 43 74 45 66 / 0 0 10 40
HURLEY 46 77 47 68 / 0 0 10 50
CLIFF 46 79 49 72 / 0 0 10 40
MULE CREEK 45 75 48 70 / 0 0 10 40
FAYWOOD 49 77 52 67 / 0 0 10 50
ANIMAS 51 84 56 71 / 0 0 10 50
HACHITA 51 83 56 71 / 0 0 10 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 84 57 71 / 0 0 20 50
CLOVERDALE 53 79 55 64 / 0 0 20 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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