850
FXUS64 KEPZ 120422
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1022 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
- MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- RISK OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MAIN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE MEXICAN SONORAN DESERT. PLENTY OF
RECYCLED MOISTURE REMAINS UNDER THIS HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO. POSSIBLE SHORT WAVES OVER EASTERN ARIZONA HELPED KICK
OFF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT DRYING
OUT AT LOW LEVELS (SFC DEWPOINTS) OCCURRED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
FROM THE RG VALLEY EAST-HANDLED WELL BY THE HRRR. THIS ENDED ANY
CHANCE OF STORMS IN THIS AREA TONIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO OVER THE SOUTHER PLAINS BY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS DO RECOVER SOME,
BUT STILL NOTICEABLY DRIER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
(MAINLY BLACK RANGE) AND AREAS WEST OF THE RG VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE THEIR LAST
TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OF THE YEAR.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER HIGH CONTINUES EAST AS FAR AS EASTERN
TENNESSEE BY TUESDAY, THEN BEGINS RETROGRADING BACK, REACHING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND THEN OVER TEXAS BY FRIDAY.
THIS MEANS FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE GOOD-TO
EXCELLENT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE KEY WILL BE HOW
STRONG OF RIDGING NOSES WESTWARD TOWARD NEW MEXICO FROM THE UPPER
HIGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THIS. IF THIS RIDGING
TAKES PLACE, MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA; IF NOT THEN MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME RAIN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PWS INCREASE TO 1.2-1.4 INCHES SO FLOOD
POTENTIAL LIKELY TO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT090 SCT-BKN250. SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS HIDALGO, LUNA, DONA ANA, AND EL PASO COUNTIES WEST 15-20
KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z...ISOLATED BKN060CB -TSRA, MAINLY WEST OF THE RG VALLEY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WILDFIRE RISK REMAINS LOW. DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED CHANCES TO MOSTLY MOUNTAINS IN THE GILA AND
FAR SW NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK UP TO AROUND 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING TO THE UPPER-TEENS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK FROM WEST TO EAST,
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. VENT RATES ARE GENERALLY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 97 68 96 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 69 99 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 100 70 98 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 78 54 76 / 0 20 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 96 70 96 / 10 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 63 91 63 90 / 10 20 10 20
DEMING 69 99 68 98 / 20 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 68 94 69 94 / 10 0 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 101 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 104 75 103 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 67 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 72 101 73 100 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 71 98 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 67 98 67 97 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 70 101 70 100 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 73 99 73 98 / 10 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 65 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 59 90 58 88 / 0 20 0 30
MESCALERO 57 89 57 87 / 0 20 0 30
TIMBERON 56 87 57 85 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 61 88 59 86 / 10 30 10 40
HILLSBORO 70 96 69 95 / 10 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 66 97 66 97 / 0 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 89 55 87 / 10 20 20 20
HURLEY 64 92 64 91 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 59 97 61 96 / 20 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 55 91 56 90 / 30 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 66 92 65 91 / 10 20 10 10
ANIMAS 68 94 69 94 / 20 10 10 40
HACHITA 68 94 68 94 / 10 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 93 67 93 / 20 10 10 40
CLOVERDALE 63 86 64 87 / 30 10 20 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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