226
FXUS64 KEPZ 191111
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
511 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- A RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN
WILL POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AREA WIDE.
- TYPICAL MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH FORECASTED RAIN AND
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
THE MODELS HAD DONE SUCH A GOOD JOB THE LAST FEW DAYS BRINGING
DAY AFTER DAY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION. TODAY'S
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAD THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EL PASO,
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES THIS EVENING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS PUSHED FURTHER EAST WHICH IS KEEPING
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO HUDSPETH COUNTY.
THAT DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AS THE
TROUGH ALOFT THAT HAD HELPED PULL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, PUSHES
THROUGH THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, GREATLY
REDUCING OR EVEN ELIMINATING OUR RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PW'S) TODAY WERE IN THE RANGE
OF 1.1 TO 1.3, BUT BY SUNDAY WE WILL SEE PW VALUES IN THE RANGE OF
0.5 TO 0.8. ANYTIME YOU ARE BELOW AN INCH ON PW'S IT IS MUCH
HARDER TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
FOR MONDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO WETTER
WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THESE SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW UP MOISTURE. INITIALLY ON
MONDAY THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE VERY DEEP, SO MONDAY IS LOOKING
PRETTY DRY. BUT BY TUESDAY THE PW VALUES WILL JUMP UP TO 1.3 TO
1.5 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOSE
HIGHER PW VALUES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP KICK OFF DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH THE HIGHER PW VALUES, THE THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCES. THE ECMWF EVEN
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
ON NEXT THURSDAY BUT THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS DOESN'T HAVE ANY
SUCH SYSTEM. WHETHER THERE IS A REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM OR SIMPLY
A DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. PLAN ON CHECKING THE
LATEST FORECAST DURING THIS WEEKEND IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT
WEEK.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION WE WILL SEE LESS CLOUDS AND MORE SUN. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND PLEASANT MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES. THEN AS THE MOISTURE, CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TO THE REGION WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES DIP TO 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. WHO'S READY
FOR SOME BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES?
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VMC EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
200-250 AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES GENERALLY
FEW-SCT100, SCT-BKN250. MUCH DRIER TODAY COMPARED TO PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED TS DURING THE EVENING HOURS, MOSTLY S AND
SE OF KELP. NO DIRECT TS IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK. THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED (10-20%) SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS. LIGHT
SW WINDS EACH AFTERNOON, 5 TO 10 MPH LEADING TO GOOD VENTILATION.
A RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS, MOUNTAIN
CANYONS, AND OTHER FLOOD-SENSITIVE LOCATIONS. THIS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE ERCS TO PLUMMET, KEEPING FIRE DANGER VERY
LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 93 68 94 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 90 63 91 / 40 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 61 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 91 64 92 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 68 48 68 / 10 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 59 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 61 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 93 67 94 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 64 94 64 94 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 97 70 98 / 30 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 63 86 64 87 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 66 94 67 95 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 92 63 93 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 62 91 63 92 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 62 94 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 94 65 95 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 62 90 62 91 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 83 54 82 / 10 10 0 10
MESCALERO 53 80 52 80 / 10 0 0 10
TIMBERON 52 79 52 79 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 52 82 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 63 88 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 59 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 53 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 58 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 59 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 59 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 60 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 63 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 91 64 91 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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