727
FXUS64 KEPZ 180531
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1031 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A RISK OF
BLOWING DUST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
THIS MAY CAUSE IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY REDUCING VISIBILITY
ON AREA ROADWAYS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY DRY HUMIDITY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 901 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
ONE MEGA TROUGH WITH REPEATED BOUTS OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY WAS SEEN TODAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
WILL BE TOMORROW. WE RINSE AND REPEAT WEDNESDAY WITH VERY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY: STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION, CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GILA
REGION. OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED AS ANY FIRES THAT
DO START WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG AS WHAT WE'RE
EXPECTING WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE. THE LAST WAVE OF
ENERGY WILL BE ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY'S WINDS AREN'T LOOKING AS STRONG
AS PREVIOUSLY BEEN MODELED BUT RATHER MORE OF A BREEZY SCENARIO
LIKE WHAT WE'RE EXPECTING THURSDAY.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE BEING EL PASO TO SEE DUST CAUSING REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES. WIND SPEEDS WON'T BE AS STRONG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIMITING
SOME OF THE DUST THREAT. LOWER WIND SPEEDS MAY SUGGEST THAT SOME
LOCATIONS WILL SEE DUST (GIVEN A FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION) BUT THE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES WON'T BE AS SEVERE
AS A HIGH WIND DAY LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THE TIME THE
WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND, MUCH QUIETER AND NICER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. A BREAK FROM
THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS START RAMPING UP AGAIN BY
MID-MORNING. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW TO WHAT WE
SAW EARLIER TODAY: STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BLDU. CAN
EXPECT BLDU AT KELP TO GET DOWN TO 1-2SM DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. KDMN AND KLRU WILL ALSO HAVE A SHOT TO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO DUST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAILY SPEEDS OF
20-35MPH, STRONGEST WED AND FRI. RH'S WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WED LOOKING TO BE THE DRIEST WITH TEENS OVER THE
LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ERC'S ARE STILL NOT
VERY HIGH, SO WILL JUST HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING WATCH FOR NOW. RH'S
RISE TO THE 20S OVER THE LOWLANDS THU WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR FOR
FRI, BUT LOOKING TO REMAIN ABOVE 15%. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
IN THE GILA THU INTO EARLY FRI WILL HELP KEEP THE FIRE RISK LOWER
IN THIS AREA. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS OF AN ISSUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 70 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 38 69 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 32 65 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 65 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 24 40 23 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 62 36 60 / 0 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 29 52 31 48 / 0 0 20 30
DEMING 32 65 37 61 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 30 60 34 57 / 0 0 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 69 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 34 69 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 41 76 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 63 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 39 73 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 68 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 67 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 33 65 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 34 66 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 68 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 65 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 29 54 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 26 52 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 50 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 24 52 26 51 / 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 33 59 34 57 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 29 63 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 25 50 28 47 / 0 0 20 30
HURLEY 28 57 31 52 / 0 0 10 20
CLIFF 27 58 31 54 / 0 10 30 40
MULE CREEK 27 53 31 49 / 0 10 40 40
FAYWOOD 31 56 34 52 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 31 63 36 60 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 32 63 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 34 64 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 34 57 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-SALT BASIN-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF
THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA
RIVER VALLEY-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR CAPITAN
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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