061
FXUS64 KEPZ 021654
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
954 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 937 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY EAST WINDS AND
COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- THE DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WARMING BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 937 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
A GENERALLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING OVER THE AREA TODAY,
GENERATING VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND
LIGHTLY BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY A BLOCKING PATTERN ON THE WEST COAST SET UP A
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS SHIFT WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEGINS THE FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES 8
TO 10 DEGREES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA, BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY
DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS GUSTS WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL MAINLY INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS, EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 937 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT180 BKN-OVC250. SURFACE
WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO WEST
10-15G25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 937 AM MST MON FEB 2 2026
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA GENERATE BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
A COLD FRONT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES (BACK DOWN TO NORMAL VALUES),
ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY EAST WINDS. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FIRE ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BRINGING IN MORE
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 25-35% THROUGH SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS 20-30%
GILA/BLACK RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY; SACRAMENTO MTNS 25-40% THROUGH
SATURDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY; POOR-FAIR ALL OTHER DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 68 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 36 60 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 64 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 33 63 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 45 23 36 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 65 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 36 63 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 38 68 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 35 66 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 66 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 33 62 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 40 68 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 40 59 36 52 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 41 68 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 38 65 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 65 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 30 65 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 36 68 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 67 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 62 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 57 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 56 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 31 53 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 61 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 38 65 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 33 65 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 63 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 34 65 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 30 70 26 67 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 67 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 39 63 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 38 67 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 36 65 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 66 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 64 40 57 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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