406
FXUS64 KEPZ 052329
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
429 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
- DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK BUT NOTHING LOOKS
HIGHLY IMPACTFUL. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WARMING
UP AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE BAJA REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING BACK UP
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LOW IS
THE MAIN PLAYER AND AS USUAL WITH THESE SW CUTOFFS, THE TIMING OF
IT LIFTING OUT IS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. EC IS BY FAR THE
SLOWEST AND THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY AS WELL. THIS
MAKES THE MOST SENSE GIVEN TYPICAL MODEL BIASES WITH THESE
SYSTEMS. THE OTHER PART WILL BE HOW SOUTH IT GOES. BOTH MODELS NOW
DO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF THE
BORDERLAND, BUT WE WILL HAVE SOME PERIOD OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE/DEFORMATION AFFECTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON COVERAGE OR PLACEMENT BUT THE FARTHER
SOUTH, THE BETTER THE PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO, THE ZONAL FLOW NORTH
OF US WILL KEEP ANY COLD AIR WELL TO OUR NORTH, SO EVEN MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE JUST RAIN. KEPT A GENERAL 20-30 POPS
SUN/MON GOING. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY EXITS THE AREA BY LATE TUE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE RETURNING. HIGHS BACK UP NEAR 70 FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS EXPECTED BUT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZY
DAYS GOING INTO LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE
HORIZON GOING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT AGAIN TIMING IS ALL
OVER AND STILL OUTSIDE FORECAST RANGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES
FEW-SCT150, SCT250 OVERNIGHT THEN SCT-BKN200 ACROSS MOST OF NM
TOMORROW. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 010-050 AOB 5 KNOTS TONIGHT,
THEN 100-150 AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LOW WILL BE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP DRAW UP SOME MOISTURE AND RAISE
RH'S INTO THE 20S AND 30S. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WILL BE THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK SOME BREEZY DAYS ARE EXPECTED. VENT RATES REMAIN POOR FOR
MOST AREAS BUT PARTS OF THE GILA WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 70 44 68 / 0 0 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA 36 68 40 66 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 34 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 33 67 39 66 / 0 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 29 51 32 46 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 67 41 66 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 36 63 39 62 / 0 0 10 20
DEMING 35 68 40 68 / 0 0 10 10
LORDSBURG 34 67 39 66 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 69 43 67 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 30 67 37 66 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 37 73 42 72 / 0 0 0 20
LOMA LINDA 39 65 43 62 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 37 71 42 69 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 35 67 40 66 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 67 43 67 / 0 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 31 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 20
HATCH 32 70 39 69 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 38 68 44 68 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 34 66 39 64 / 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 31 65 34 60 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 30 62 33 58 / 0 0 0 20
TIMBERON 33 59 31 55 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 28 62 31 60 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 37 67 41 65 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 30 67 38 66 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 32 64 30 61 / 0 0 10 20
HURLEY 33 64 37 64 / 0 0 10 20
CLIFF 32 70 36 67 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 33 66 31 64 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 37 64 41 63 / 0 0 10 20
ANIMAS 34 69 39 68 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 34 67 39 67 / 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 69 40 68 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 39 66 41 63 / 0 0 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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