387
FXUS64 KEPZ 050504
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1104 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY, WITH
LIMITED DRY LIGHTNING CHANCES OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS (40-50 MPH) ON SUNDAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN MOUNTAIN AREAS STARTING
MONDAY PERSISTING THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LOWLANDS WILL ALSO SEE ISOLATED
STORMS EACH DAY AS OUTFLOW WINDS MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
- WARMER LATE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING WESTWARD AND LEADING TO A MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION
OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEAR 1.1-1.2" (90TH PERCENTILE), A FEW
PASSING DISTURBANCES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH,
OROGRAPHIC LIFT, AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVIDE THE SETTING FOR
DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES MAINLY RESIDING OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY, THEN SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
LOWLANDS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST CAM RUNS INDICATE THE
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHING EL PASO, DONA
ANA, AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES BETWEEN 20-23Z TOMORROW, AND LINGERING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ACROSS THE WEST, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL, BUT DRY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. IN
ADDITION, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, STORM OUTFLOWS
COULD LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AROUND 40-50 MPH OR MORE AT TIMES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE SHAPING TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE GILA
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WITH POPS RISING TO AROUND 60-70%
DURING THE DAY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY
NEAR BURN SCAR AREAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA, MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES (30-50%) WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-30%) REMAINING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
LOWLANDS IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
BEYOND THAT, THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHILE THE LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER EARLY IN THE WEEK,
BUT WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS RETURN BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CYCLE AT AREA TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
MAINLY AFFECTING LRU/TCS/ELP SITES. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED TO THESE TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. IN
ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30-40 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THESE PASSING STORMS OR OUTFLOWS FROM THESE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER ACROSS DMN SITE,
THEREFORE WITHHELD FROM INTRODUCING ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME VARIABLE
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES IN
COVERAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
CRITICAL MIN RHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS
SUNDAY WITH VALUES GENERALLY 11-14% WITH NEAR CRITICAL RHS GENERALLY EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE AT 16-20%. THE GILA REGION WILL HAVE NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL MIN RHS SUNDAY AT 13-20% BUT THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL SEE 30-40%
RHS. RHS INCREASE A FEW PERCENTAGES MONDAY AND TUESDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. EXPECT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 100 77 99 / 10 40 50 10
SIERRA BLANCA 69 95 67 94 / 10 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 71 98 69 97 / 0 50 40 10
ALAMOGORDO 73 97 68 96 / 0 40 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 55 74 52 73 / 10 60 40 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 97 71 97 / 0 50 0 20
SILVER CITY 68 92 67 92 / 0 20 20 60
DEMING 70 101 68 100 / 0 30 20 10
LORDSBURG 71 99 71 99 / 0 20 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 99 76 98 / 0 40 50 0
DELL CITY 72 97 69 97 / 10 20 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 76 101 74 100 / 10 20 30 10
LOMA LINDA 71 92 68 91 / 10 30 40 10
FABENS 76 101 74 100 / 10 40 50 10
SANTA TERESA 74 98 72 97 / 0 30 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 98 76 98 / 0 50 40 10
JORNADA RANGE 72 97 69 97 / 0 60 40 20
HATCH 73 101 70 100 / 0 60 30 20
COLUMBUS 75 102 75 101 / 0 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 72 96 69 95 / 0 30 30 20
MAYHILL 59 83 56 84 / 10 50 50 60
MESCALERO 58 85 55 84 / 0 70 30 70
TIMBERON 57 82 54 81 / 10 60 40 60
WINSTON 64 88 62 88 / 0 20 10 70
HILLSBORO 71 95 68 94 / 0 50 10 30
SPACEPORT 70 97 66 97 / 10 50 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 61 92 61 92 / 10 20 10 70
HURLEY 68 95 66 95 / 0 20 20 50
CLIFF 69 98 68 98 / 0 20 0 60
MULE CREEK 67 94 66 95 / 0 20 10 50
FAYWOOD 69 94 67 93 / 0 20 10 40
ANIMAS 71 99 71 99 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 70 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 99 72 99 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 67 94 68 94 / 0 0 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...88-NIEVES
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