595
FXUS64 KEPZ 141901
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
101 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY LATE WEEK THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A
LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF GRANT,
HIDALGO AND OTERO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY PREVAILING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY (PWATS 0.9-1.1"),
A FEW HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THOUGH LATEST ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THE CLOSED LOW EITHER ARRIVING LATE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK (IF AT ALL), A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEARING -4
DEGREES C, LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION WHILE STILL
MAINTAINING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES (20%+) AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS (40-80%) THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GILA REGION. NOW, IF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
DOES NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA, AND WE REMAIN IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE
OF IT, THEN CONVECTIVE AND RAINFALL CHANCES WOULD DROP CONSIDERABLY
FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL IMPACTS, FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GILA AREA.
WPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2
OF 4) ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO AND GRANT COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE REST OF THE CWA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4). REGARDLESS OF COVERAGE, THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ARRIVAL (PWATS 1.1-1.3") COULD EASILY CREATE FLOODING
ISSUES WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, RECENT BURN SCARS, AND LOW-LYING/URBAN AREAS. ASIDE
FROM THIS, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD RESULT IN
ERRATIC AND STRONG WINDS.
IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
PLEASE PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST UPDATES AS WE FINE
TUNE THE DETAILS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE CYCLE AT AREA
TERMINALS UNDER A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE SITES. THE BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO FORM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE BETWEEN
03-06Z TONIGHT, AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE GILA WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A LOW
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND OUT
WEST. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 94 71 91 / 10 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 61 86 60 85 / 0 20 10 40
LAS CRUCES 66 91 66 88 / 10 20 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 64 90 64 88 / 10 30 20 40
CLOUDCROFT 48 68 47 67 / 10 30 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 91 69 87 / 10 30 30 30
SILVER CITY 63 84 61 80 / 20 50 40 70
DEMING 66 94 66 91 / 10 20 20 30
LORDSBURG 68 91 67 87 / 20 20 30 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 72 92 72 90 / 10 20 20 10
DELL CITY 64 90 63 88 / 0 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 68 94 68 92 / 0 20 10 20
LOMA LINDA 63 85 63 84 / 10 20 20 10
FABENS 69 94 69 92 / 10 20 20 10
SANTA TERESA 68 91 68 89 / 10 20 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 92 72 90 / 10 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 92 67 89 / 10 20 20 20
HATCH 69 95 67 91 / 10 20 30 20
COLUMBUS 71 94 71 91 / 10 20 20 30
OROGRANDE 65 90 64 88 / 10 20 20 10
MAYHILL 52 78 51 77 / 20 20 10 40
MESCALERO 52 79 51 78 / 10 30 10 50
TIMBERON 50 77 49 75 / 10 20 10 50
WINSTON 59 83 57 79 / 10 40 50 60
HILLSBORO 66 89 64 85 / 10 30 40 50
SPACEPORT 66 91 64 88 / 10 20 30 20
LAKE ROBERTS 57 85 56 81 / 20 50 50 70
HURLEY 63 87 61 83 / 10 30 30 60
CLIFF 64 90 63 86 / 30 50 50 70
MULE CREEK 62 86 61 82 / 40 60 50 70
FAYWOOD 64 87 63 83 / 10 30 30 60
ANIMAS 68 92 68 88 / 20 20 20 60
HACHITA 66 91 66 88 / 10 20 20 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 91 67 88 / 10 10 10 50
CLOVERDALE 63 86 64 82 / 20 10 10 80
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...88-NIEVES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page