047
FXUS64 KEPZ 232324
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
524 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 341 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SLIGHT WARMUP OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MEMORIAL DAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SUDDEN RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..THIS WEEKEND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, EVIDENT IN STEADILY RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND LESS
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE
FULLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY, LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS A SUBTLE WARMUP THIS WEEKEND. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL WARM A
FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. THIS IS
STILL RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE-MAY. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
..MONDAY
ORPHAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
ASHORE MONDAY MORNING. NEGATIVELY-TILTED AXIS AND STRENGTHENING
OF MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH MOISTURE
CURRENTLY STORED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM 0.4-0.5 SUNDAY UP TO
0.8-0.9 MONDAY WILL BE EVIDENT IN GREATER ALTO CUMULUS COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING.
VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED (60-80% COVERAGE)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENTLY,
THE BEST CHANCES FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. FOR
EL PASO'S CWA, WE'RE LOOKING AT OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES AS THE
BEST COVERAGE. SURFACE MIXING WILL LEAD TO LARGE "INVERTED-V"
BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES, THUS STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND GENERALLY
LOWER-END RAINFALL RATES WILL BE COMMON WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
THIS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND US-54 CORRIDOR NEAR WHITE SANDS NP.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE, AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT, AND LOW
LEVEL BACKED FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES.
..TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MUCH LARGER UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SIT OVER THE GREAT
BASIN REST OF NEXT WEEK, ABSORBING MONDAY'S ORPHAN LOW AND
MAINTAINING A DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY FLUSHES EAST ON
TUESDAY. WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA
(SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS), BUT THIS WILL ALLOW THE RETURN
OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DRYLINE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPMENT WILL SIT JUST TO OUR EAST, AND MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP
THIS MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST OVER SE NEW MEXICO AND TRANS-PECOS
IN WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, BUT NEAR NORMAL WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT100, WITH OCNL
BKN080 OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TIL 03Z, THEN SKC. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHWEST 8-12 KNOTS TIL 03Z, THEN VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH MIN RH 8-15% AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. STRONG AFTERNOON MIXING WITH
HEIGHTS 12K-13K FEET AND SCATTERED CUMULUS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. VERY GOOD VENTILATION WITH TRANSPORT TO THE NNE. NO
OVERNIGHT WEATHER CONCERNS.
INCREASED SURFACE HUMIDITY ON MONDAY 20-30% ALONG WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVERAGE. MOISTURE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED (60-80%) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR AREAS
ALONG THE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING LINCOLN NATIONAL
FOREST AND THE CAPITAN RANGE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ERRATIC, SUDDEN
OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND STORMS. RAIN RATES WILL BE ON THE LOWER END
DUE IN PART TO A MORE SHALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE, THUS
LOWER THAN USUAL RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLOODING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LNF AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE REST OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BECOMING DRY
AGAIN. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH THE RETURN OF DRY AIR AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RED FLAGS
NEXT WEEK, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 94 70 91 / 0 0 0 80
SIERRA BLANCA 56 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 50
LAS CRUCES 54 91 59 87 / 0 0 10 80
ALAMOGORDO 59 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 70
CLOUDCROFT 44 69 46 67 / 0 0 10 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 90 61 83 / 0 0 10 80
SILVER CITY 52 84 56 77 / 0 0 30 70
DEMING 56 93 60 89 / 0 0 10 50
LORDSBURG 55 89 60 84 / 0 0 30 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 92 67 89 / 0 0 10 80
DELL CITY 55 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 50
FORT HANCOCK 60 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 80
LOMA LINDA 58 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 70
FABENS 58 95 64 93 / 0 0 0 80
SANTA TERESA 56 90 62 88 / 0 0 10 70
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 92 70 88 / 0 0 10 80
JORNADA RANGE 55 91 60 86 / 0 0 0 80
HATCH 56 94 60 88 / 0 0 10 80
COLUMBUS 61 93 65 89 / 0 0 10 40
OROGRANDE 57 90 61 87 / 0 0 0 80
MAYHILL 48 81 51 78 / 0 0 0 70
MESCALERO 48 80 50 77 / 0 0 10 80
TIMBERON 46 77 48 74 / 0 0 0 60
WINSTON 49 82 50 75 / 0 0 10 80
HILLSBORO 58 88 60 82 / 0 0 10 70
SPACEPORT 54 90 57 84 / 0 0 0 80
LAKE ROBERTS 48 85 52 78 / 0 0 20 80
HURLEY 51 87 55 81 / 0 0 20 70
CLIFF 50 90 55 83 / 0 0 40 70
MULE CREEK 50 86 54 79 / 0 0 40 80
FAYWOOD 53 86 57 80 / 0 0 10 70
ANIMAS 56 89 60 85 / 0 0 20 40
HACHITA 56 89 60 85 / 0 0 20 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 89 59 86 / 0 0 10 30
CLOVERDALE 55 83 58 81 / 0 0 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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