794
FXUS64 KEPZ 141121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
521 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. QUIET
WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID
MAY.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CREATING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
UPPER RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL FLUSH OUT YESTERDAY'S MOISTURE AND LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH LESS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE,
WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVER. 994MB LEE SURFACE LOW CENTERED
OVER SE COLORADO WILL EXTEND A PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST NEAR THE USUAL
SENSITIVE AREAS, BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER AS HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN USUAL FOR MID-MAY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-TO-MID 90S.
VERY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL BE CONSISTENTLY SUNNY, WARM, AND BREEZY EACH DAY. LONGWAVE
TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE PRIMARY JET FLOW
TO OUR NORTH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO FEATURE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE PERIOD (20 TO 30 MPH), THOUGH STILL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SUBTLE COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR, WITH
HIGHS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT120 SCT-BKN250.
BETWEEN 20Z-01Z OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY...BKN080 WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE MAINLY WEST AOB 7
KNOTS THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO WEST 15-20G28 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BREEZY AFTERNOONS, WE ARE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
15-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER END RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL SEE EVEN A BIT STRONGER WINDS WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL, AND COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY, FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT WEEK. SO OVERALL FIRE
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK VERY POSITIVE AT THIS TIME.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 6-12% THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS 10-20% TODAY,
DECREASING TO 8-15% FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-
EXCELLENT THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 88 59 89 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 62 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 67 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 59 91 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 57 87 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 92 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 96 63 96 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 64 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 90 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 57 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 60 92 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 92 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 52 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 50 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 48 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 59 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 55 89 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 81 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 53 84 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 87 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 83 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 55 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 88 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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