614
FXUS64 KEPZ 241720
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY; BREEZY WINDS
THURSDAY PUSHING FIRE CONDITIONS TO NEAR-CRITICAL.
- COOLER STRETCH AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT WITH
BREEZY WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY.
- AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE HEAT TURNS BACK ON FOR A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE WE GET A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE COOL DOWN. CURRENTLY UPPER HIGH SITTING OVER
SOCAL/WESTERN ARIZONA. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS HIGH RESIDES THE
OLD UPPER LOW HANGING ON WEST OF THE BAJA. LOOKS LIKE MORE RECORD
LEVEL HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE BAJA LOW ROTATES AROUND IT,
REACHING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN
FORMING LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RIGHT NOW EXPECT
WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. COMBINE THIS WITH
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME NEAR-CRITICAL
BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE REMAINING JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
BIG CHANGES TO WEATHER PATTERN AFTER THURSDAY. FIRST, A STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
EXITS AND LEE-TROUGH ALLOWS RAPID INTEGRATION OF THE BACK DOOR.
FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE SACS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY AND THEN INTO
THE RG VALLEY LATE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AZ BORDER BY
NOON TIME. EXPECT EAST WINDS TO 15-25 MPH TO DEVELOP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WEST SLOPES OF
TERRAIN. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY OUT TO LUNA
AND HIDALGO COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL. SAME STORY
AGAIN SATURDAY AS LIGHTER EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS
CONTINUE.
BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER HIGH IS FORCED EASTWARD
AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS SHOW BY LATER
SATURDAY MOISTURE STREAMING UP OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. GFS MORE BULLISH ON QPF,
BUT ECMWF SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. NEEDLESS TO SAY, OUR
AREA COULD REALLY USE SOME PRECIP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
WEST 8-12G20 KNOTS TIL AROUND 02Z, THEN BECOMING VARIABLE, MAINLY
NORTHWEST AOB 7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THIS PERIOD CENTERS ON THURSDAY. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS
WILL DEFINITELY PUSH FIRE CONDITIONS TO NEAR-CRITICAL, BUT AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS. STRONG
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WIND
SHIFT AND EAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH...STRONGEST ALONG WEST SLOPES OF TERRAIN.
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER FRIDAY AS BOTH
WINDS WILL DECREASE, AND HUMIDITY INCREASES. AND BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WE EVEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 4-8% THROUGH THURSDAY INCREASING TO 15-25%
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOUNTAINS 8-15% THROUGH THURSDAY INCREASING
TO 20-35% FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY, BECOMING VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THURSDAY,
FAIR-GOOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 96 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 94 52 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 94 48 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 75 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 94 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 87 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 52 96 51 94 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 90 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 96 51 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 98 56 99 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 96 56 97 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 93 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 47 95 45 94 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 48 97 45 97 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 95 57 94 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 92 48 93 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 53 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 53 83 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 48 88 45 89 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 59 92 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 94 44 94 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 88 38 87 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 51 90 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 34 92 35 91 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 87 31 86 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 56 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 52 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 91 51 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 52 92 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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