316
FXUS64 KEPZ 171226 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 452 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A
RISK OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY REDUCING
VISIBILITY ON AREA ROADWAYS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY DRY HUMIDITY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A FEW WINDY DAYS THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK. RIGHT NOW, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK VERY WINDY WITH THE
ADDED POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING DUST CAUSING ISSUES BOTH AFTERNOONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 50 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS
AND HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
REGARDS TO HOW "BAD" THE DUST WILL BECOME WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS
AND STRONG WINDS BUT THE SURFACE DUST CONCENTRATION MODEL IS
SUGGESTING SOME BLOWING DUST FOR THE EL PASO AREA. MORE LOCALIZED
AREAS LIKE IN AND AROUND DEMING, WHITE SANDS, AND THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA MAY BECOME ACTIVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
LOOKING LIKE WE'LL NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT LOWLANDS AND MAYBE SOME HIGH WIND WARNINGS
FOR THE GILA REGION AND THE SACRAMENTO MTNS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION, CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THAT AFTERNOON MEANING OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED AS
ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. HEADING INTO THE
LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK, THURSDAY LOOKS BREEZY GIVING US A
SHORT BREAK BEFORE MORE WIND ARRIVES FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND ACTUALLY
LOOKS QUITE NICE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS BREAKING DOWN, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO STRONG WLY WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF LLWS WILL
FAVOR IN AND AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, INCLUDING KLRU. LIGHT SHWRS WILL FAVOR SWRN NM AND
THE SACRAMENTO MTS, TAPERING OFF AFT 17/20Z. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK
BTWN 17/20Z AND 18/00Z. BLDU COULD IMPACT VSBYS AT TERMINALS,
INCLUDING KDMN, KELP, AND KLRU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT 18/02Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 452 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY...
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING SYSTEM,
BRINGING MINRH UP AROUND 10 TO 25 PERCENT COMPARED TO MONDAY'S
READINGS. STRONG WINDS MAY BE CAPABLE OF OVERCOMING THE IMPROVED
MOISTURE, HOWEVER, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXISTING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 1300 AND 1600 LOCAL TIME, WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH COMMON.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL FAVOR MOUNTAIN ZONES AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS, WHERE GUSTS OF AROUND 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ALL ZONES
SEEING A REDUCTION IN HUMIDITY OF AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THIS
LOW HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONCE
AGAIN, ZONES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BE PARTY TO STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 60 MPH, WHILE LOWLAND ZONES CONTEND WITH GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH. ERCS WILL REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
WEDNESDAY'S FIRE DANGER, BUT GIVEN SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE DATA'S
ILLUSTRATION OF HIGH VEGETATIVE COMBUSTIBILITY, STILL AM CONFIDENT
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUITABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD, SHOULD THERE
BE IGNITIONS. AS SUCH, DID RETAIN THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AND DO EXPECT IT TO BE UPGRADED BY A FUTURE SHIFT.
WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIPS INTO THE BORDERLAND. WHILE
HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
WINDS MAY STILL WORK TO OVERCOME THE MOISTURE, CREATING ANOTHER
DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL ALONGSIDE LIGHT
WINDS. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING A EASTERLY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 39 68 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 33 65 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 64 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 25 40 25 39 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 62 36 61 / 0 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 29 52 32 50 / 0 0 20 20
DEMING 32 65 38 62 / 0 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 30 60 34 57 / 0 0 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 42 69 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 68 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 41 76 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 63 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 40 73 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 37 68 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 67 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 34 65 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 34 67 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 68 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 66 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 30 55 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 52 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 50 31 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 24 52 27 53 / 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 32 60 35 58 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 28 62 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 50 29 48 / 0 10 20 20
HURLEY 28 57 32 53 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 27 58 33 56 / 0 10 20 20
MULE CREEK 28 53 31 51 / 0 10 20 20
FAYWOOD 32 57 35 53 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 32 63 35 61 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 32 63 35 61 / 0 0 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 64 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 35 57 35 56 / 0 0 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO
COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA
VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...40-BREITREITER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page