934
FXUS64 KEPZ 160448
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1048 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS STARTING
TUESDAY, PEAKING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO SEEP INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
A LONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ROLLING JUST EAST
OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS CURRENTLY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
BEFORE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, OTHER THAN A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHEASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WE'LL BE DRIER
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES TICKING UP TOWARDS THE
100 MARK AT ELP.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, AND INCREASING WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO WILL INDUCE
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. THE GFS EVEN HAS A <990MB SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEASTERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE W TO NW
FLOW OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FETCH OFF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL FEED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SW
NEW MEXICO, WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE. MEANWHILE,
THE ENHANCED WESTERLIES WILL INDUCE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING, AND
TEMPS AT ELP MAY REACH 105 AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A VERY WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY TO NOSE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY, WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NM,
AS THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO FEED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED AS A RESULT, AND THIS SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OUR
HIGH TEMPS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
FOR FRIDAY, WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW LOOKING TO MOVE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 100S AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
ELP WILL FAVOR SE WINDS AS WEAK OUTFLOW PUSHES UP THE RIO GRANDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR TUESDAY. BUT
INCREASING NW FLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS FAIRLY STRONG
LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER NE NEW MEXICO. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHERN GILA REGION. MEANWHILE, SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SEEP INTO SW NEW MEXICO VIA
ARIZONA MID-WEEK, INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 101 78 105 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 94 66 100 / 20 30 20 0
LAS CRUCES 64 97 69 100 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 97 70 102 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 76 54 80 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 99 73 102 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 62 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 50
DEMING 64 100 71 101 / 20 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 67 98 69 97 / 0 0 0 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 98 76 101 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 65 98 67 103 / 10 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 101 72 105 / 10 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 61 92 69 96 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 71 101 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 69 97 72 100 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 98 76 102 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 97 68 101 / 10 0 0 10
HATCH 62 101 69 104 / 20 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 70 100 77 101 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 63 96 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 87 60 91 / 40 20 10 0
MESCALERO 53 86 57 90 / 30 0 0 0
TIMBERON 49 82 54 87 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 54 91 61 92 / 10 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 62 96 69 98 / 10 0 0 40
SPACEPORT 61 98 65 101 / 10 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 47 94 52 93 / 0 0 0 50
HURLEY 61 96 67 95 / 10 0 0 40
CLIFF 60 99 63 98 / 0 0 0 40
MULE CREEK 56 95 60 93 / 0 0 0 40
FAYWOOD 62 94 69 94 / 10 0 0 40
ANIMAS 68 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 30
HACHITA 67 98 68 97 / 10 0 0 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 97 68 96 / 10 10 0 30
CLOVERDALE 63 91 63 90 / 0 20 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25
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