369
FXUS64 KEPZ 011227
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
627 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS FOR EL PASO METRO AND
LOWER VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
- INCREASING MOISTURE STARTING TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF
GULF MOISTURE AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONSISTENT SOUTH
FLOW WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL 700-850MB LAYER WILL USHER IN MOISTURE
UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STARTING MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER SE
TEXAS WILL ALSO HELP PUSH MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGINNING
0.3-0.5" ON SUNDAY WILL JUMP TO 1.1-1.3" BY MIDWEEK AND REALLY
SHOW NO SIGNS OF FULLY ERODING THROUGH THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A MONSOONAL WEATHER PATTERN AND MAY PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
MONDAY WILL SIGNAL THE START OF THIS MOISTURE PUSH, BUT ONLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY
TO OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. MOST OF SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL REACH
TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH EL PASO AND
THE LOWER VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING THE TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE ADVANCES FURTHER
NORTHWEST UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE DECENT CHANCES (30-50%) FOR THE EL PASO/LAS CRUCES
METRO. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY KICK UP DUST INITIALLY AS DESERT
TOPSOIL ARE STILL DRY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST COVERAGE AREA WIDE, FINALLY
INCLUDING SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (60-80%
CHANCE) STORMS. FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT AROUND A ORPHANED CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM FORMATION THAT AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR IMPACTS BEING FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HAIL.
SLIGHT WIND DOWN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
SHIFTS EAST A BIT. FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN (MOSTLY THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL
MIDWEEK BEFORE WARMING BACK UP NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
MOISTURE STARTS TO TRICKLE BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY, BUT THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, BUT CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNLIMITED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THIS MORNING, BUT WE COULD SEE MORE LOW END WIND GUSTS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 611 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. MIN RH'S THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR
10% IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEAR 20% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. THE MOISTURE
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH'S ON TUESDAY
WILL STILL BE DRY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND EAST OF THE RIVER
MIN RH'S WILL BE ABOVE 20%. THE MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MIN RH'S AT OR ABOVE
20% FOR THE WHOLE REGION. WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WE WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS, WHICH CAN TRAVEL FAR FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORMS.
WE WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. VENT RATES TODAY
AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 97 70 91 / 0 20 40 40
SIERRA BLANCA 64 91 60 84 / 10 50 70 60
LAS CRUCES 65 95 61 88 / 0 10 40 30
ALAMOGORDO 68 92 61 87 / 0 60 50 40
CLOUDCROFT 51 70 46 66 / 10 90 60 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 91 62 86 / 0 50 40 30
SILVER CITY 58 88 56 82 / 0 10 10 50
DEMING 63 98 61 92 / 0 0 20 30
LORDSBURG 62 94 62 90 / 0 0 0 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 96 68 89 / 0 20 50 40
DELL CITY 63 93 60 86 / 10 60 60 50
FORT HANCOCK 70 99 67 93 / 0 40 60 60
LOMA LINDA 66 88 61 82 / 0 40 50 50
FABENS 69 99 65 92 / 0 30 40 40
SANTA TERESA 66 95 63 88 / 0 10 40 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 95 69 88 / 10 30 40 40
JORNADA RANGE 66 93 61 87 / 0 30 40 30
HATCH 66 96 61 90 / 0 20 40 30
COLUMBUS 69 97 66 92 / 0 0 10 30
OROGRANDE 67 92 61 86 / 10 50 50 40
MAYHILL 56 80 51 76 / 10 90 60 90
MESCALERO 55 80 50 76 / 10 70 60 70
TIMBERON 52 77 48 73 / 10 80 60 70
WINSTON 56 84 52 79 / 0 60 20 70
HILLSBORO 65 91 61 84 / 0 30 30 50
SPACEPORT 63 92 58 86 / 0 40 50 40
LAKE ROBERTS 55 89 52 83 / 0 20 10 70
HURLEY 59 91 57 85 / 0 10 10 40
CLIFF 57 95 57 90 / 0 0 0 50
MULE CREEK 56 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 40
FAYWOOD 61 90 58 84 / 0 10 20 50
ANIMAS 62 94 61 91 / 0 0 0 30
HACHITA 63 94 61 90 / 0 0 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 94 61 91 / 0 0 0 30
CLOVERDALE 59 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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