799
FXUS64 KEPZ 290533
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1033 PM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
- MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES, BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO AREA MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS.
- WE WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
OUR STRETCH OF QUIET WARM WEATHER IS GOING TO COME TO A SHORT END
(BUT NEVER FEAR, IT RETURNS JUST AS QUICKLY). AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO
THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOMETIMES AS THESE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS APPROACH THEY ARE ABLE TO GRAB SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC AND THROW IT ACROSS THE REGION TO HELP ADD FUEL FOR
PRECIPITATION. OTHER TIMES AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES IT PULLS IN A
LOT OF DRY AIR FROM ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO, WHICH CAN LIMIT THE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO HELP PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THIS DRIER
SCENARIO IS THE ONE THAT LOOKS BE WORKING OUT THIS TIME AS THE
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE PULLING PLENTY OF DRY AIR (DRY SLOTTING) INTO
OUR REGION ALOFT. THUS WE HAVE BEEN TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOWER AND LOWER EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND REALLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW TOTALS LOOK LIGHT WITH LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND THE GOOD PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 70%)
OF GETTING AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA WILDERNESS. SILVER CITY COULD (40 TO
60%) SEE ONE HALF TO ONE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY. THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS LOOK TO MISS OUT ON THIS EVENT WITH ONLY A TRACE AMOUNT
OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE LOWLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE SOME BREEZY WINDS AND ON THURSDAY, THE WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF FACTORS WILL LIMIT OUR WINDS
TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, ONE, THE TIMING AND THE TRACK OF THE
TROUGH ARE NOT THE BEST FOR STRONG WINDS. ALSO THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
NEVER REALLY GETS SET UP WITH THE SYSTEM, SO THAT TOO WILL LIMIT
THE WINDS FROM GETTING TOO STRONG. THE ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE,
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL DIP SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH, WE WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLOW (WEST TO
EAST) ALOFT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK REBOUND IN OUR
TEMPERATURES, SO THAT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OUR HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES AND BY SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OUR ZONAL FLOW
WILL TRANSITION MORE INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
WARM UP. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 10
TO 15 AND IN SOME CASES 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. IT LOOKS LIKE
FEBRUARY WILL BEGIN WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
WINDS HAVE TRENDED LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING, THOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY TREND TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING DUST IS NOT EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT TONIGHT, AND
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND NW
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHICH MAY ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST LONGER
AT ELP DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT IT WILL ALSO INCREASE OUR
MOISTURE BOTH DAYS. FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL SEE
BREEZY TO WINDY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WE LIKELY (80-90%) WILL
SEE STRONGER WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE CHANCES OF SEEING SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER ON WEDNESDAY IS VERY LOW (0-20%), BUT
ON THURSDAY THE CHANCES OF SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH IS
BETTER AT 10 TO 40% IN THE LOWLANDS AND BETTER THAN 60% IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL GIVE US STRONGER WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WILL
ALSO GIVE US A CHANCE FOR LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE WILL ALSO SEE INCREASED MIN RH'S BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MIN RH'S ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR 20% IN
THE LOWLANDS AND ABOVE 30% IN AREA MOUNTAINS, WHILE ON THURSDAY,
WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER MIN RH VALUES, BUT STILL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MIN
RH'S IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE MID TEENS IN AREA
MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
RANGE FROM VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 35 55 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 32 52 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 29 51 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 28 51 21 53 / 0 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 20 31 14 30 / 0 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 27 51 25 56 / 0 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 23 41 22 45 / 20 40 10 10
DEMING 25 51 24 53 / 0 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 23 48 20 51 / 20 40 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 35 53 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 27 55 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 30 58 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 32 47 27 47 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 32 55 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 51 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 34 52 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 25 51 19 55 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 25 54 22 58 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 30 53 28 54 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 51 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 43 20 42 / 0 10 0 0
MESCALERO 22 41 15 40 / 0 10 10 0
TIMBERON 20 39 14 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 15 43 12 49 / 10 30 10 0
HILLSBORO 25 48 22 54 / 0 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 23 51 19 56 / 0 20 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 22 41 19 45 / 20 40 20 20
HURLEY 20 44 19 47 / 10 40 10 0
CLIFF 14 48 10 54 / 30 40 20 10
MULE CREEK 23 41 20 48 / 40 60 30 10
FAYWOOD 24 44 22 48 / 10 30 0 0
ANIMAS 23 50 21 55 / 10 40 20 0
HACHITA 24 49 22 53 / 10 20 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 25 51 23 55 / 10 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 27 44 24 48 / 10 40 30 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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