455
FXUS64 KEPZ 150409
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1009 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
- AFTER A CALMER WEDNESDAY, BREEZY AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
SOME PESKY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST S OF THE INT'L
BORDER, SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ONCE AGAIN TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED MIGHTILY WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
WHICH SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT. RAIN RATES WILL BE LIGHT AS LONG
AS PRECIP REACHES THE SFC.
AFTER A BREEZY TO WINDY FEW DAYS EARLY THIS WEEK, A CALMER DAY IS
FORECAST FOR WED. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN. SOME LINGERING
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU,
RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. LEE SFC TROUGHING IS
GENERATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS FORECAST. THE SFC LOW IS NUDGED SE ON FRI AS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SHIFTING OUR
WINDS WESTERLY. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD,
APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVEL FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A HAZARD BOTH THU AND FRI. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET.
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE A SIDEDOOR FRONT THAT LOOKS TO
ARRIVE SAT AM, BRINGING SOME COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY N-NE WINDS. THE
SFC HIGH SETTLES TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, GIVING US MOIST,
BREEZY SE FLOW OFF THE GULF FOR A SHORT TIME. LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN AS A RESULT SUN/MON, MAINLY E OF THE RGV. THERE IS A
DISAGREEMENT IN MOISTURE CONTENT BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES
WITH THE GEFS MORE BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IS FLUSHED OUT INTO MIDWEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH FRI, THEN FALLING TO
BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE'LL REBOUND TO ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTINESS TO THE UPPER TEENS
WED AFTERNOON FROM W-SW. SCATTERED -SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR
KELP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE. BEST
GUESS IS BY THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL. MAINLY SKC
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY AS WE SEE AFTERNOON WINDS OF
WEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH, COMBINED WITH MIN RHS IN THE
15-23% RANGE. REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS AGAIN THU/FRI, AND BACK TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 7-12% THROUGH SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 18-28%
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOUNTAINS 8-18% THROUGH SATURDAY, INCREASING TO
20-35% SUNDAY/MONDAY. VENT RATES VERY-EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN FAIR-GOOD SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 78 51 83 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 75 47 81 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 74 43 80 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 73 44 80 / 20 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 51 34 56 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 36 68 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 41 77 42 82 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 38 73 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 76 53 82 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 78 40 84 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 82 49 87 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 48 71 49 76 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 51 80 48 85 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 76 44 81 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 76 51 81 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 40 75 42 80 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 41 78 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 78 45 83 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 44 73 44 79 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 36 65 37 69 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 33 62 36 67 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 36 60 37 66 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 30 68 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 41 73 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 38 73 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 34 71 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 34 73 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 35 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 38 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 40 74 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 40 74 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 76 44 80 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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