428
FXUS64 KEPZ 071051
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
451 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 444 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN MOUNTAIN AREAS STARTING TUESDAY
PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWLANDS, MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REMAINING HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 98-102; EXCEPT HIGHS THURSDAY/FRIDAY 101-106.
- INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN FOR THE NIGHT WITH ONLY
A FEW POCKETS OF RAIN LEFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FOR ANY LOCATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT WE SHOULD BE
NEARLY PRECIP FREE BY MIDNIGHT. ALOFT, AN UL RIDGE COVERS ABOUT
THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A CENTER OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NM. DRY AIR IS TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL
PULL THAT DRIER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT WEST, LIMITED TO THE GILA, SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND
LOWLANDS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HIGHS WILL ALSO START CREEPING
UPWARD, NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE THOUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, THE UL HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM JUST TO OUR WEST,
ACROSS THE US-MEX BORDER, TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OR ROCKIES,
CENTERED OVER WY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD STARTING LATE FRIDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS DECREASE FROM THE LOSS OF
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A INVERTED TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH. THE
GFS ROTATES IT INTO NM WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS IT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FOR NOW THE NBM HAS TO LOW TO MODERATE POPS PAINTED
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND (20-40%) DURING MAINLY THE
EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED BKN070CB -TSRA, AND
SPREADING TO THE LOWLANDS MAINLY WEST OF DEMING-T OR C, AFTER 20Z.
GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS TO 30 KNOTS. OTHERWISE WINDS SOUTHEAST
8-12 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS. ALSO, THE RAIN STARVED
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY, PEAKING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD LEAD TO INCREASED STORM
COVERAGE ALL AREAS, WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 12-17% THROUGH FRIDAY, INCREASING TO 20-30% BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GILA/BLACK RANGE...15-25% THROUGH FRIDAY,
INCREASING TO 25-35% BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN
MTNS...25-35% THROUGH FRIDAY, INCREASING TO 35-50% BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 100 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 95 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 68 98 71 101 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 98 73 100 / 0 10 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 52 74 54 77 / 10 30 10 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 98 72 100 / 10 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 62 92 65 94 / 10 30 20 50
DEMING 68 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 69 99 71 100 / 20 20 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 99 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 97 70 100 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 72 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 67 92 69 95 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 72 100 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 98 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 99 78 102 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 98 70 101 / 10 10 10 10
HATCH 70 102 70 104 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 73 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 66 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 56 86 59 88 / 0 40 10 60
MESCALERO 55 86 57 88 / 10 30 10 40
TIMBERON 53 82 55 85 / 0 20 10 30
WINSTON 59 90 60 92 / 10 50 30 20
HILLSBORO 68 96 69 98 / 10 10 10 30
SPACEPORT 64 97 66 100 / 10 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 56 93 56 95 / 10 50 30 50
HURLEY 64 95 65 97 / 10 20 20 50
CLIFF 60 98 60 100 / 20 50 20 30
MULE CREEK 56 95 55 96 / 20 40 20 30
FAYWOOD 65 94 66 96 / 10 20 10 50
ANIMAS 68 99 71 100 / 20 20 20 20
HACHITA 68 99 70 100 / 10 20 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 99 71 99 / 20 10 10 20
CLOVERDALE 65 93 66 93 / 20 20 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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