012
FXUS64 KEPZ 261130
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK DUE TO MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST.
- WE WILL FINISH OUT MAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE TO OUR WEATHER IN THE FORM OF WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THAT WILL WRAP UP OUR RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SLOW
ENOUGH AND DESPITE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN, WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GIVE AREA MOUNTAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF US WILL STAY DRY, BUT A FEW
LUCKY FOLKS COULD GET A LITTLE MORE RAIN. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF WE WILL SEE A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
US DRY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. THE ONE GOTCHA WE HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THE FACT THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LURK
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
MOISTURE SLIP INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AND GIVE PARTS OF
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE
START JUNE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. STILL NO SIGN OF ANY TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES CURRENTLY FEW,
WILL BECOME SKC THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN EVENTUALLY FEW-SCT AT
10-15 KFT WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING SW/W BY THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 431 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
LOW TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON (DEPENDENT ON
LOCATION) ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
REGION AS SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW RESUMES. HOWEVER, REMNANT
MOISTURE STILLS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE GILA AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY OF ANY DEVELOPMENT. MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
NM WITH ABOVE 15 PERCENT VALUES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT 8 TO 15 MPH. AFTERNOON SMOKE VENTILATION RATES WILL
RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST, VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FAIR TO GOOD AREAS TO THE EAST.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, A SLOW PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM OVER NV/CA/OR TRI-STATE AREA WILL FURTHER INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NM. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH DAILY AFTERNOON BREEZY WINDS. ELEVATED
TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE RGV ACROSS SOUTHWEST NM. SMOKE VENTILATION RATES
WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 90 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 85 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 86 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 56 86 60 91 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 65 44 69 / 10 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 90 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 88 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 87 56 91 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 59 92 62 97 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 82 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 57 91 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 87 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 86 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 53 89 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 54 85 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 44 77 47 80 / 10 0 0 10
MESCALERO 45 75 47 79 / 10 0 0 20
TIMBERON 43 72 46 76 / 10 0 0 10
WINSTON 43 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 83 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 85 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 48 82 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 86 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 87 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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