399
FXUS64 KEPZ 200535
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1035 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY, WITH A RISK OF BLOWING DUST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE
IMPACTFUL TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY REDUCING VISIBILITY ON AREA
ROADWAYS.
- LIGHTER WINDS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 914 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
THE LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT US SEVERAL WINDY
DAYS THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY EXIT LATE FRIDAY. BUT BEFORE THAT,
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY
MID-MORNING AND MAXING OUT BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WEST
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS AND 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. THE SACRAMENTO MTNS IS UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY DUE TO THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UP THERE. EAST
SLOPES OF THE ORGANS AND SAN ANDRES MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA HERE AND THERE AS WELL. BLOWING DUST MAY BECOME A CONCERN
TOMORROW. LOCAL DUST SOURCES IN AND AROUND DEMING, THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA, WHITE SANDS, AND THE DRY LAKE BEDS IN NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
BE THE AREAS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
PACIFIC/WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALLOWING FOR A MAJOR REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. MAYBE EL PASO COULD SEE 80 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY?
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND THEN LATER TOWARDS THE TAF PERIOD, SKC.
BREEZES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
7-12KT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WINDY DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH WINDS
ON THE INCREASE BY MID MORNING AND MAXING OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 40KT OUT OF THE
WEST. BLOWING DUST WILL BE A CONCERN TOMORROW BUT KTCS WILL NOT
BE AT RISK. KDMN AND KLRU HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY TO SEE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY KDMN. KELP MAY SEE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES BUT NOT EXPECTING A DUST STORM LIKE
WHAT WE SAW EARLIER IN THE WEEK (NOTHING BELOW 1-2SM EXPECTED).
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
THE REGION REMAINS WITHIN BASE OF BROAD TROUGHING WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT, KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, AFTER
YESTERDAY'S DRY CONDITIONS, WE HAVE SEEN SOME GAINS IN MOISTURE,
AND A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WINDS, TO LOWER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TOMORROW ANOTHER WELL-TIMED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN NM, AND GIVE THE REGION ANOTHER DAY OF STRONGER
WINDS. THE GILA REGION MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. AGAIN,
RH WILL BE UP A BIT, AND STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION, WITH ONLY SOME EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
SEEING SOME UPPER TEENS MINRH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PLUS, ERC CHARTS
SHOW THAT FUELS ARE AT OR BELOW THE DAILY AVERAGE, WHICH IS QUITE
DEPRESSED RELATIVE TO "FIRE SEASON" HIGHS. THUS THE FIRE DANGER
ISN'T QUITE THERE TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG
WARNINGS, DESPITE THE WIND.
AFTER FRIDAY, THOUGH THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL, WITH
A BUILDING RIDGE. WE WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AND STEADY
TEMPERATURES AT NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER,
WITH MINRH BACK DOWN IN THE CRITICAL LOW AND MIDDLE TEENS, AND
ONLY FAIR RECOVERIES, BUT THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LOWER.
FOR NEARLY ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WE REMAIN UNDER THAT BUILDING RIDGE,
AS IT ANCHORS OVER THE SW, AND SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST TO SCAL.
THIS WILL MEAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. FUELS WILL TREND DRIER, BUT WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF ELEVATED OR CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 43 67 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 38 66 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 60 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 37 60 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 24 41 19 41 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 58 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 49 26 54 / 0 10 0 0
DEMING 36 60 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 32 55 27 60 / 0 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 65 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 66 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 40 73 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 61 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 40 70 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 39 63 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 62 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 60 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 37 61 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 40 64 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 37 61 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 30 54 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 52 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 51 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 52 17 52 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 36 57 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 33 58 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 49 21 56 / 10 10 0 0
HURLEY 31 50 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 29 52 23 62 / 10 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 49 23 58 / 20 20 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 52 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 38 60 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 38 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 63 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 58 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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