056
FXUS64 KEPZ 100416
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1016 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES
LIMITED TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH CONTINUES EACH DAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE THE HOTTEST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO 104
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
UL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER WITH DRY, SUBSIDING FLOW BEING ADVECTED INTO THE CWA. THIS
PATTERN HAS GREATLY LIMITED STORM COVERAGE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
STORMS AND MAINLY OVER THE GILA. MORE OR LESS THIS PATTERN WILL
HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH THE 0Z HRRR IS SHOWING
INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY EVENING. I WILL
DISCOUNT IT FOR NOW SINCE THE HRRR HAS HAD A NOTABLE WET BIAS FOR
DAY 2 LATELY.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A PATTERN SHIFT AS THE H500
HIGH SHIFTS OVER TX AND OK, EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS
WILL TURN OUR FLOW FROM THE SOUTH, TAPPING INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE 50 WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE AN INCH (NBM MEAN GENERALLY RANGES 1.1-1.3").
THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BACK INTO THE PICTURE, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FEW SYSTEMS
RIDING UP INTO AREA, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MOST NOTABLY, THE GFS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL WAVE MOVING UP FROM
MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MORE OR LESS STALLING
OVER NM. THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER VERSION OF THIS FEATURE AND
KEEPS IT OVER AZ. BOTH MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WAVE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT HERE TOO, BOTH MODELS DIFFER IN ITS EVOLUTION
AND TRACK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC-FEW120/250. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH DIRECTION WILL FAVOR SE. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KNOTS, BUT A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING FROM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THOUGH MAINLY FOR TCS AND DMN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
GENERALLY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. MOSTLY
DRY TODAY (SUNDAY) WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE GILA REGION.
AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN AREAS BORDERING AZ WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STORM CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER TAP OF
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE
AND PERHAPS EVEN THE FLOODING RISK AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH 20 FOOT WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT EACH AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH WITH CALM OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS. MIN RHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AT 13-20% AND MOUNTAIN RHS
OF 20-35%. BETTER MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD
WILL INCREASE MIN RHS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH VALUES OF 18-
30% AND MOUNTAIN RHS 30-50%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 96 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 76 54 77 / 0 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 64 93 63 91 / 10 20 10 40
DEMING 67 101 70 100 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 69 99 68 97 / 0 0 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 99 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 103 75 104 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 71 101 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 71 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 68 98 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 88 59 89 / 0 10 0 20
MESCALERO 56 88 59 88 / 0 10 0 10
TIMBERON 54 85 57 86 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 60 92 62 91 / 0 10 10 40
HILLSBORO 67 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 68 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 92 58 91 / 10 30 10 60
HURLEY 64 96 64 95 / 0 10 10 40
CLIFF 66 100 65 97 / 20 30 20 50
MULE CREEK 64 95 63 93 / 30 40 30 60
FAYWOOD 66 96 67 95 / 0 0 0 20
ANIMAS 68 99 68 97 / 0 0 20 20
HACHITA 68 98 68 97 / 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 97 68 95 / 0 10 10 40
CLOVERDALE 64 92 64 89 / 0 10 20 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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