486
FXUS64 KEPZ 221011
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 401 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
- TYPICAL SPRING SEASON WEATHER BACK OVER THE REGION, WITH DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THE REGION WILL
BE CRITICALLY DRY, WITH NO PRECIPITATION.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE RISE, COMPOUNDING EACH DAY DUE TO THE
DRY CONDITIONS, INCREASED WINDS, AND DRYING FUELS. EACH AFTERNOON
WILL BE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE LAGGING MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL FLUSH OUT TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT, AS OUR WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS, AND ALLOWS FOR A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE OVER AND IMPORT
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT
ZERO, AND ALLOW FOR A DROP OF RH TO CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS. A BROAD
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE TO OUR WEST, WITH
SEVERAL SHARP SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING OUT OF THE TROUGH
AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, AND THIS
WEEKEND. THIS TIME OF YEAR, THAT MEANS A PATTERN OF BREEZY TO LOW
END WINDY CONDITIONS, WITH PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS DURING THE
PASSAGE OF DISTURBANCES.
THESE IMPULSES WILL PASS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THOSE DAYS
DELIVERING THE STRONGEST WIND DAYS. OTHERWISE, FOR WEDNESDAY,
FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY, WE STILL SEE AT LEAST BREEZY AFTERNOONS, WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS. THOSE DAYS WILL BRING WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE, WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A 20 TO 30 MPH DAY
WITH GUSTS 35 MPH, AND SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WIND DAY WITH
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK
HARD AT BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY AND CERTAINLY FOR
SUNDAY, BUT ALSO MINOR DUST IMPACTS FOR THE "BETWEEN" DAYS.
WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW, AND ALL SYSTEMS PASSING
WELL NORTH, WE WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY, WITH ZERO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FAIRLY STEADY, WITH MILD OVERNIGHTS,
AND DAILY HIGHS BOUNCING 3-8 DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGES. NOT
MUCH CHANGES AFTER THE BREEZY TO WINDY WEEKEND, BUT WE GET A SHORT
BREAK IN THE WINDS MONDAY, BEHIND THE SUNDAY TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT WE
SEE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY FOR MORE BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT180 BKN-OVC250. SURFACE
WINDS WEST 12-16G25 KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z-01Z, OTHERWISE WEST 7-10
KNOTS. A FEW PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20-23Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 401 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK, AS
PERSISTENT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS AND LOW HUMIDITY
EACH DAY FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS A BIT BELOW CRITICAL
VALUES TODAY, BUT INCREASE TO THOSE VALUES THURSDAY. WITH POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT, WILL GO AHEAD AND UP THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY. ALSO, ERCS ARE ONLY FORECAST
TO EXCEED AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE GILA/LOWLANDS, BUT APPROACH OR
EXCEED CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE SACS.
WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON FRIDAY, BUT INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. MORE WATCHES/WARNINGS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 7-12% THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS 12-20% THROUGH
MONDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 80 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 61 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 71 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 83 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 45 78 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 57 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 82 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 81 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 51 83 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 80 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 72 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 44 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 44 68 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 73 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 45 81 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 71 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 42 75 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 37 77 38 81 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 33 73 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 81 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 80 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 81 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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