637
FXUS64 KEPZ 282336
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
436 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 422 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS, SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT WINDS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING TREND TO START
OFF THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
WEST TO WSW FLOW ALOFT IS PULLING IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA, ALL AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL ROLL ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT, REACHING KANSAS BY DAWN, WITH
NO REAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. A WEAKER TROUGH FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO, BUT WILL ONLY SERVE
TO SHIFT THE WINDS HIGH ALOFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE
HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH SUNNIER SKIES EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PUSH
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZY
EAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT THE AIR MASS IS NOT
TERRIBLY COOLER, AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT VERY STRONG, SO DON'T
EXPECT GUSTS OVER ABOUT 20-25 MPH OR SO, EVEN ON WEST FACING
SLOPES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND, WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO UNDERCUT IT AS IT
MOVES INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY, SETTING UP A REX BLOCK OVER
ARIZONA AND SONORA. SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS UPPER LOW
TUGGING AT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO, BUT NOT
QUITE BRINGING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE
BORDER. GRANTED, IT IS CLOSE BY, AND MODELS CAN HAVE TROUBLE WITH
BLOCKING PATTERNS. HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW THE LOW LOOKS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE, BREAKING DOWN THE BLOCKING RIDGE AND PUSHING THE LOW
EAST OF EL PASO AS AN OPEN WAVE BEFORE MOISTURE CAN GET PULLED
THIS FAR NORTH. KEPT THE SINGLE-DIGIT POPS FROM THE NBM.
ENSEMBLES (BOTH GFS AND ECMWF) ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY SHOW WARMING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S
RETURNING TO THE LOWLANDS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NBM AS WELL.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD, CONFIDENCE DECREASES, BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW
SPOTTY CHANCES FOR PRECIP MID-WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AGREES,
BUT PAINTS A COMPLEX AND QUESTIONABLE PATTERN WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THEN
CUTTING OFF INTO CLOSED LOW THAT RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWEST,
TRIES TO PHASE WITH A WEAK LOW WELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, THEN
PULLS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA, WHICH THEN INTERACTS
WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. KEPT THE FAIRLY LOW NBM POPS FOR NOW,
BUT DON'T REALLY BUY INTO THE RATHER UNUSUAL EVOLUTION OF THE GFS
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT150 BKN-OVC250. SURFACE
WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH 7-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS, MAINLY OVER
THE LOWLANDS, BUT MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE SHALLOWER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
ERCS ARE NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS AFTER THE RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD FOR THE MOST
PART, SLIGHTLY LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE GILA, WHICH RECEIVED LESS
AMOUNTS OF RAIN RECENTLY COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS, WITH VENT RATES IMPROVING TO FAIR OVER THE GILA
THURSDAY, THOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE POOR IN THE LINCOLN NF. FAIR
TO GOOD CATEGORIES LOOK ACHIEVABLE BY FRIDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 34 59 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 51 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 57 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 27 55 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 39 23 37 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 57 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 32 58 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 32 61 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 32 59 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 35 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 23 52 22 48 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 32 59 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 28 49 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 31 59 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 31 57 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 33 57 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 26 57 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 28 61 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 33 61 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 27 52 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 52 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 25 49 21 47 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 27 46 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 55 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 33 58 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 27 57 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 21 57 19 58 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 59 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 26 63 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 23 61 22 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 57 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 34 60 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 33 59 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 34 62 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 59 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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