005
FXUS64 KEPZ 260950
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
350 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 348 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
- WINDY, DRY, AND POSSIBLY DUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL TO
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
- THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE BENIGN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE
SIT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM, CONDITIONS CONTINUE VERY DRY, WINDS LIGHTER,
BUT STILL BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
AN UL LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER STORY. AS IT
PUSHES EAST, IT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AS THE H500 JET
MOVES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A ~990 MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
OVER FAR SW CO, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. READERS OF THESE AFDS WILL KNOW A WINDY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE BORDERLAND. H850 FLOW IN THE GFS IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
40 KNOTS WITH H700 FLOW BETWEEN 45-50 KNOTS, GIVEN PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS, WHICH USUALLY IS
A GOOD INDICATOR FOR MAX GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST SLOPE SITES,
I ELECTED TO UPGRADE THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY FOR TULAROSA EAST
SLOPES, EASTERN EL PASO, AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING. ELSEWHERE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS OF
50-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON. WIND TRAJECTORIES IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
BLOWING DUST ISSUES, BUT SINCE THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST BIG WESTERLY WIND
EVENT OF THE YEAR, IT'S HARD TO SAY HOW BAD THE DUST WILL BE. I
WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANY, DUST PRODUCTS ARE
NEEDED. IT WILL ALSO BE VERY DRY, SO CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BUT TRAILING JET ENERGY WILL KEEP THE AREA BREEZY FOR
MONDAY THOUGH NOT NEARLY TO THE SCALE OF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT.
A BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM VIA AN UL LOW.
THE GFS AND EURO SHOW DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES FOR THE FORECAST
STARTING THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW A LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST, BUT
THE GFS IS FARTHER EAST WITH IT, BRINGING IT INTO SOUTHERN NM
ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, LASTING INTO
THURSDAY, BEFORE EXITING FRIDAY MORNING. THE EURO IS SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH HAVING IT LINGER INTO SATURDAY. LREF CLUSTER
ANALYSIS REALLY DOES NOT OFFER ANY GUIDANCE ON WHICH MODEL IS
CORRECT. ABOUT A 1/3 FAVOR THE GFS, ABOUT HALF FAVOR THE EURO OR A
WEAKER VERSION OF WHAT THE EURO SHOWS, AND THE REMAINING 1/5
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER WAVE. THE NBM HAS BROAD POPS (20% SOUTH, 50%
NORTH) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT150 SCT-
BKN250. SURFACE WINDS WEST 7-10 KNOTS..GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EAST
SLOPES OF THE ORGAN AND FRANKLIN MTNS TIL 12Z. WINDS INCREASING
AFTER 17Z TO WEST/SOUTHWEST 23-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN, STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG EAST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. WINDS DIMINISHING SOME AFTER 03Z.
BLOWING DUST LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
INTL BORDER...WITH PATCHY 3-5SM BLDU POSSIBLE FROM 19-00Z. KELP,
KDMN, KLRU ALL COULD SEE BLOWING DUST BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH FOR
MAJOR IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL THE FIRE ZONES AS WINDS SHARPLY INCREASE.
WINDS BY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO WEST 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50
TO 60 MPH. FIRE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
MONDAY, WITH LESSER BUT STILL BREEZY WINDS THAN TODAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ALSO SOMEWHAT BREEZY FOR CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS.
MOISTURE FINALLY STARTS TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A NEW
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE BAJA ACROSS NEW MEXICO. DECENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS, AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 10-15% TODAY LOWERING TO 7-12% MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN INCREASING TO 20-30% THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS
15-25% TODAY, LOWERING TO 8-15% MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
INCREASING TO 30-45% THURSDAY/FRIDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-
EXCELLENT THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 79 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 35 58 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 39 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 82 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 83 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 89 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 76 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 50 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 81 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 80 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 48 82 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 70 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 39 69 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 40 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 70 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 76 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 79 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 34 70 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 73 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 38 76 37 80 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 33 72 33 76 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 41 73 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 81 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 81 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-SALT
BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK
RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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