181
FXUS64 KEPZ 240610
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1210 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
- THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY, AND MAY BE THE
STRONGEST WEST WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON SO FAR. ADVISORY OR
WARNING-LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY, WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST, AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP WESTERLIES IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
ON SATURDAY, WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN AN UPTICK FOR WINDS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WILL NEVERTHELESS LEAD TO STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 600 MB WILL TAP INTO 50 KNOT
WINDS, WITH 55-60 KNOTS NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLE WARNING-
LEVEL WINDS FOR EAST-SLOPE LOCATIONS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. IF
WE'RE GOING TO GET WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL DUST THIS SEASON, THIS
WILL BE THE EVENT TO DO IT. OUR LACK OF DUST SO FAR THIS YEAR IS
MOSTLY DUE TO A LACK OF WEST WIND EVENTS. EVERY YEAR WE NEED TO
"RECALIBRATE" OURSELVES WITH RESPECT TO WIND AND DUST, AND SO FAR
THIS YEAR WE HAVEN'T HAD MUCH OF CHANCE TO DO SO. IT SEEMS WE ARE
NOT AS SENSITIVE AS LAST YEAR GIVEN OUR LIMITED WEST WINDS, BUT
STILL CONFIDENCE IN DUST IMPACTS IS NOT VERY HIGH GIVEN THE LACK
OF HIGHER IMPACT WEST WIND EVENTS THIS SEASON.
DON'T EXPECT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN BEHIND SUNDAY'S SYSTEM. CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
CLEARING SKIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO PUSH WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TOMORROW BUT WON'T BE AS STRONG OF WINDS AS WE
SAW TODAY. EXPECT A WEST WIND WITH SPEEDS REACHING TO 20G30KT
AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BLOWING DUST WAS
MINIMAL EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY LESSER WIND SPEEDS, BLDU
MAY NOT EVEN BE SEEN TOMORROW AT TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, BRINGING
BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST AT 20-25 MPH.
EXCEPT FOR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, MIN RHS WILL BE AROUND 10% OR BELOW
AS FUELS DRY TOWARDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX IS
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMOKE DISPERSION TO THE EAST. ERCS
ARE IN WORSE SHAPE IN THE LINCOLN COMPARED TO THE GILA, BUT BOTH
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER WARM, DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS FOR FRI FROM THE WEST,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED-NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX.
WINDS INCREASE FOR SAT/SUN WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX EXPECTED ON SUN
EVEN THOUGH RHS COME UP A BIT. WINDS LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG FOR SUN
AT 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT 20 FEET. THE HIGHER RHS IN
FWZ113 SHOULD NOT PRECLUDE FIRE WX PRODUCTS FROM BEING ISSUED FOR
SUN AS FUELS WORSEN. RAIN CHANCES HOLD NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES STAY MILD. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUN.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 7-18% THROUGH FRI, RISING TO 12-25% ON SUN.
VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 53 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 58 46 60 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 81 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 48 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 81 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 89 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 59 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 56 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 48 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 53 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 71 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 70 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 68 44 70 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 73 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 46 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 73 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 76 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 37 79 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 75 33 76 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 76 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 49 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 82 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 44 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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