542
FXUS64 KEPZ 280450
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1050 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, RUNNING
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 107 EACH
AFTERNOON, POSING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, CAPABLE OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
AND WILL SIT THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF LATE JULY.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. GFS
500-MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES SUGGEST THIS HIGH IS 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN IS TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MONSOON. THE PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN, AS ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY RECYCLED
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE/TERRAIN FORCING PRODUCING
MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE BROAD AND DIFFUSE,
BUT GENERALLY FAVOR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE JUST OVER AN INCH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO,
WITH DRIER AIR FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY, DRIVEN BY A
DECAYING MCS OVER SONORA FLUSHING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY SUNRISE TOMORROW
AND AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.2-1.4". THIS WILL LEAD
TO MORE SCATTERED (50-70% COVERAGE) THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CLOUD-LAYER FLOW OF 15-KNOTS SUGGESTS FLOODING RISK MAY BE LOWER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, AS STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MORE EFFICIENTLY
MOVE TO THE WNW. STORMS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
DUE TO OUTFLOW FORCING.
THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS, HOWEVER, WILL BE HOT
TEMPERATURES. SUFFOCATING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE VERY HOT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
WILL RUN 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WHICH MEANS
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 102 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN
BOTH TIME AND AREA LATER THIS WEEK.
MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OR ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH FOR
TUESDAY ONWARD WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY APPRECIABLE
DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN NM HIGH ELEVATIONS. GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE IN A
SLIGHT RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEK
OF AUGUST, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM COVERAGE AND
SOME INTERESTING NORTH FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS SW NM NEXT FEW HOURS. SKIES FEW-SCT150
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM DISTANT OUTFLOWS LEADING TO
250-290 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
FLOW AOB 8 KNOTS. PROB30 TS MENTIONS AT KELP/KLRU/KDMN TUESDAY
EVENING DUE TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS. TEMPO FOR KTCS
DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE. MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS
GENERALLY 22-04Z TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
GENERALLY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. MIN RHS
ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL EACH
DAY WITH PERCENTAGES OF AROUND 13-20% EACH AFTERNOON. AREA
MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE 25-40%. STORM CHANCES EXIST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN
UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE GILA REGION AND LOWLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWLAND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS, MOUNTAIN AREAS
WITH HIGHS OF 75F TO 90F.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 105 79 104 / 10 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 102 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 73 103 73 102 / 10 0 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 77 103 75 102 / 10 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 58 80 56 78 / 10 10 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 76 102 75 101 / 10 10 40 0
SILVER CITY 68 95 66 94 / 10 50 30 20
DEMING 73 104 73 103 / 10 10 20 0
LORDSBURG 73 100 72 100 / 10 10 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 104 80 103 / 10 0 10 0
DELL CITY 74 105 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 107 78 106 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 71 98 72 96 / 10 0 10 0
FABENS 77 105 77 105 / 10 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 76 102 76 102 / 10 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 105 80 103 / 10 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 76 105 76 102 / 10 0 20 0
HATCH 76 106 75 105 / 10 0 20 0
COLUMBUS 78 104 77 104 / 10 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 74 103 74 101 / 10 0 10 0
MAYHILL 63 92 62 89 / 10 10 10 10
MESCALERO 63 92 61 90 / 10 10 10 10
TIMBERON 60 90 59 88 / 10 10 10 10
WINSTON 66 93 64 92 / 10 40 30 30
HILLSBORO 73 100 72 99 / 10 20 30 10
SPACEPORT 73 102 73 101 / 10 0 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 95 60 94 / 10 60 40 40
HURLEY 69 98 68 98 / 10 40 30 20
CLIFF 69 100 68 100 / 20 50 30 20
MULE CREEK 66 96 65 96 / 30 50 30 20
FAYWOOD 70 98 69 97 / 10 30 30 10
ANIMAS 72 99 72 100 / 20 10 50 10
HACHITA 72 100 71 100 / 10 10 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 99 70 100 / 40 10 40 20
CLOVERDALE 64 92 66 93 / 50 20 50 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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