103
FXUS64 KEPZ 171739
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1139 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- STORM CHANCES DECREASE NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
IT WAS THE WETTEST OF TIMES. IT WAS THE DRIEST OF TIMES--A LITTLE
DICKENS REFERENCE TO SUMMARIZE THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH IT WON'T
ACTUALLY BE THE WETTEST OR DRIEST OF TIMES, IT DOES FEEL A BIT
LIKE A TELL OF TWO FORECASTS. WE START OFF WET. THE CONUS IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS
THE US-CANADA BORDER AND THE CORE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A SECOND CORE OFF THE LA COAST.
STUCK IN THE BROAD RIDGE, IS A CUT-OFF LOW, CENTERED NEAR THE SE
CORNER OF NM. THIS SLOW-MOVING FEATURE WILL BE WHAT GIVES US
PLENTY OF RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. PW VALUES WILL
START OFF AROUND 1.25" BUT WILL INCREASE TO THE 1.3-1.4" RANGE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, DECREASING A LITTLE ON MONDAY TO THE
1.1-1.3" RANGE PER THE NBM MEAN. THUS DAILY SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ON AND OFF, ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
THE MAIN CONCERN. AT THE MOMENT, THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WATCH.
AS MENTIONED, THE UL LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS WESTWARD BEFORE
MAKING A SOUTHWARD SHIFT INTO MEXICO, WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXITING
ON TUESDAY THOUGH CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE THEN. BY WEDNESDAY, POPS WILL ALL BUT DISAPPEAR,
HOLDING ON TO MAINLY THE GILA AND PERHAPS LOWLANDS ALONG THE AZ
BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS IS THE DRY PART OF OUR
FORECAST. THE UL HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
BRINGING DRY AND HOTTER AIR WITH IT. PW WILL FALL CLOSER TO OR
BELOW AN INCH PER THE NBM MEAN WHILE HIGHS CLIMB ABOVE 100 FOR
MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE SKIES WITH BASES
AS LOW AS 100, EXCEPT LOWER IN TSRA. SCT TO POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IMPACTS LIKELY
AT EACH TERMINAL (>60% CHANCE). THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS EXACT
TIMING, BUT TEMPO AND PROB30S ARE INCLUDED FOR EACH TAF SITE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER DARK THOUGH CHANCES DO NOT DROP TO
0. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH
STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BURN SCAR FLOODING, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE WHILE A SLOW-MOVING UL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
THUS, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME AREAS MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 2" OF
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS, MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO THE MID 30S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHT, OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
AND VENTING WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY, DECREASING TO
POOR TO FAIR ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 93 71 90 / 60 30 60 60
SIERRA BLANCA 64 88 63 85 / 50 50 50 70
LAS CRUCES 66 91 65 88 / 60 40 60 60
ALAMOGORDO 66 89 66 88 / 50 40 60 80
CLOUDCROFT 49 68 50 67 / 50 70 50 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 91 69 90 / 20 50 40 50
SILVER CITY 60 84 60 82 / 20 50 40 90
DEMING 66 94 65 92 / 30 30 50 70
LORDSBURG 65 89 65 88 / 20 20 40 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 91 71 89 / 60 30 70 60
DELL CITY 67 91 66 90 / 30 60 60 60
FORT HANCOCK 71 94 70 92 / 50 50 60 70
LOMA LINDA 65 85 64 83 / 40 40 60 70
FABENS 71 94 69 91 / 50 30 70 60
SANTA TERESA 69 90 68 87 / 60 30 70 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 91 71 89 / 60 40 60 70
JORNADA RANGE 67 91 67 89 / 50 40 50 60
HATCH 67 95 67 92 / 40 40 40 60
COLUMBUS 71 93 70 91 / 50 30 70 60
OROGRANDE 66 89 66 87 / 50 30 60 60
MAYHILL 54 79 55 78 / 50 90 50 90
MESCALERO 53 79 54 78 / 50 70 50 90
TIMBERON 51 76 51 75 / 50 60 50 90
WINSTON 57 82 58 82 / 30 70 50 80
HILLSBORO 64 89 65 87 / 30 60 40 70
SPACEPORT 64 91 64 89 / 30 50 40 60
LAKE ROBERTS 55 85 55 84 / 20 70 40 90
HURLEY 61 87 61 85 / 20 50 40 80
CLIFF 63 89 63 88 / 20 50 40 80
MULE CREEK 60 86 60 85 / 20 40 40 80
FAYWOOD 63 87 63 85 / 20 50 40 90
ANIMAS 66 88 65 88 / 20 40 40 60
HACHITA 64 89 64 88 / 30 30 50 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 88 65 87 / 40 60 40 80
CLOVERDALE 62 82 62 82 / 30 50 40 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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