883
FXUS64 KEPZ 082323
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
423 PM MST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 422 PM MST MON DEC 8 2025
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS, TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES, AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE SOME RIDGING MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO EAST WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY OVER THE LOWLANDS AND LIKE
LAST NIGHT, DROP BELOW GUIDANCE. LOWERED HIGHS ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES,
HIGHER IN HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. COULD HAVE
ANOTHER COUPLE NIGHTS WITH A WARMER LOW IN CLOUDCROFT THAN MOST OF
THE LOWLAND AREAS.
GOING INTO THU/FRI, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT THE SURFACE
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR RECORDS WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RISE IN DEW
POINTS AND WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP
AS MUCH AS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE MODELS AS TO HOW THEY
HANDLE POSSIBLE BACK DOOR ASSOCIATED WITH 1040+MB HIGH DROPPING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EC AND GFS ON 00Z/06Z RUNS
BACKED OFF ON THIS FRONT REALLY EVEN GETTING INTO THE CWA. THE
LATEST GFS RUN IS BRINGING IT IN SAT NIGHT AND DROPPING HIGHS
ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES FOR SUN. EC AI ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THIS
BUILDING IN OF THE HIGH FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT WE FEEL IT'S EFFECTS.
THERE IS A SMALL DOWNTREND SHOWING UP IN THE NBM TEMPS GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT MODEL TRENDS ARE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 422 PM MST MON DEC 8 2025
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC. WINDS LIGHT AT 3-6
KNOTS AND PREDOMINATELY VRB.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
WARM AND DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL BE THE STORY FOR THIS
WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND WARM TO 10-15 ABOVE NORMAL BY THU/FRI. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW MIN RH'S TO DROP INTO THE 15-25% RANGE DAILY
BUT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, MAYBE AN OCCASIONAL BREEZY DAY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG MORNING INVERSIONS WILL KEEP
VENT RATES POOR TO FAIR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 44 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 65 37 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 31 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 37 48 37 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 68 34 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 66 33 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 36 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 67 30 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 34 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 60 34 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 68 33 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 66 37 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 38 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 65 29 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 34 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 68 35 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 63 34 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 63 36 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 58 30 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 58 27 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 65 25 66 25 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 34 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 65 22 66 25 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 66 30 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 67 26 68 29 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 64 24 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 35 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 68 32 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 67 31 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 35 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 41 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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