025
FXUS64 KEPZ 031817
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1117 AM MST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 AM MST WED DEC 3 2025
- A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT, JUST GRAZING OUR AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
WITH JUST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
- COOLER FOR THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS, TYPICAL BREEZES, AND
DAILY WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST WED DEC 3 2025
THE MOST "ACTIVE" PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH NORTHERN NM. WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE W-SW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
850MB FLOW OF 20-25KTS. A TYPICAL BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED, GUSTING
TO 30 MPH WITH RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS IN FAR WEST TX FURTHER
FROM THE TROUGH AXIS.
MOST OF THE PRECIP IMPACTS FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL OCCUR IN
NORTHERN NM AS DRY, WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. THE SACS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS DIPS SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
DROPPING FROM ABOUT 8KFT TO NEAR 5KFT DURING THE SHORT-LIVED
EVENT, WHICH SHOULD ONLY LAST 6-12 HOURS FOR THE SACS. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE, SO ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1"
ARE FORECAST (HIGH-END SCENARIO IS 2" ACCORDING TO THE NBM).
ELSEWHERE, NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE GILA REGION, HAVE A LOW
CHANCE (10-30%) OF SEEING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FLURRIES THIS
EVENING. THE I-10 CORRIDOR IS FORECAST TO STAY DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
THE TROUGH QUICKLY EJECTS TO THE EAST ON THU, LEAVING US
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS. THU'S HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE SIDE-DOOR FRONT. A CUT-OFF
LOW FROM THE PACIFIC GETS SWEPT UP IN THE FLOW ON THU, BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THU
NIGHT, BUT VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN (10% OR LESS). FROM FRI
ONWARD, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PLEASANT. TEMPS WILL
STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AFTER TOMORROW WHILE
THE STORM TRACK STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST WED DEC 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING BREEZY W-SW WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO NEAR 25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO
AOB 10KTS, SHIFTING NW. SCT040-050 HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH RAIN NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
TERMINALS INTO TONIGHT. KTCS HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE (ABOUT 20%) OF
LIGHT SHRA FROM 0-6Z. LOWER CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT,
CLEARING OUT TOMORROW MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST WED DEC 3 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND MTN SNOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, MAINLY IN
THE SACS AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NM. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1" ARE EXPECTED IN THE SACS WITH SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER SNOWFALL (2-3") FURTHER NORTH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WITH
20-FT WINDS OF ABOUT 15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH. MIN RHS (30-50%)
WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, SO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS
NOT FORECAST TODAY. DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, SO VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD, MOSTLY.
LIGHT WINDS RETURN TOMORROW ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT, RESULTING IN POOR VENTILATION. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AFTER
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MIN RHS WILL BE 25-45% THU, DROPPING TO 20-35% BY SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 59 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 55 34 58 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 35 54 31 56 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 53 29 55 / 30 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 34 20 35 / 40 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 51 29 53 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 27 49 28 51 / 30 0 0 0
DEMING 35 57 31 59 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 33 54 29 55 / 30 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 57 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 32 54 29 62 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 40 63 38 66 / 0 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 51 35 53 / 10 10 0 0
FABENS 40 61 37 63 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 39 56 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 56 37 59 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 34 54 27 57 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 35 56 27 60 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 58 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 35 53 30 56 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 23 46 24 50 / 40 10 0 0
MESCALERO 24 44 22 46 / 50 20 0 0
TIMBERON 23 43 21 45 / 30 10 0 0
WINSTON 22 46 19 51 / 30 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 30 52 29 55 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 31 52 24 55 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 22 50 22 51 / 40 0 0 0
HURLEY 27 51 27 53 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 55 23 57 / 30 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 51 22 53 / 30 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 31 51 29 54 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 37 56 32 58 / 20 0 0 0
HACHITA 35 56 30 58 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 57 34 60 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 38 53 36 54 / 20 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page