199  
FXUS64 KEPZ 282356  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
456 PM MST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TUESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM  
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE WINDS OVER 70  
MPH WHILE THE LOWLANDS COULD STILL SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BY  
THE END OF THE WEEK APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. A CHANCE FOR RAIN  
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND ALSO COOLS TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW STRONG GUSTY  
CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODERATE GUSTS  
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE SHOWS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE  
REGION, WHICH THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING.  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, WITH WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS  
DIMINISHING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN WILL PERSIST, AND EVEN SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN TO THE DESERT SW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE  
NAM AND GFS SHOW A JET AROUND 4 TO 10 KFT AGL OF ~50KTS OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT, GIVING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7000FT WINDS OF 30-50 MPH WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 60 TO 65 MPH.  
 
TUESDAY MORNING, AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES OVER CENTRAL  
NM. AT THE SAME TIME A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE  
ROCKIES AND SQUEEZES A SURFACE LEE CYCLONE OVER SE CO & NE NM. THE  
CYCLONE IS SHOVED A BIT TO FAR EAST TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER  
THE CWA, HOWEVER A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST. WINDS  
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE GUSTY TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH  
THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30MPH AND GUSTS UP  
TO 40 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN STRONG WINDS OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MIXING HEIGHTS REMAIN  
RELATIVELY SHALLOW (3 TO 5 KFT), KEEPING THOSE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN (ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000FT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY, WITH NO CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
MODELS ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC  
FEATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FOR WED-FRI, UPPER FLOW TURNS BACK  
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR AVERAGE  
WED WITH HIGHS GETTING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY  
WHEN SOME AREAS COULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
WILL ALSO BE WARMING AND REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
GOING INTO FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES  
INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION STARTS  
TO TAP SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EC IS A LITTLE QUICKER MOVING  
RAIN IN FROM THE SOUTH BY 12Z SAT WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL THE  
12Z-18Z RANGE. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS A LOT LIKE EC SOLUTION FOR  
TIMING AND AREA SO STARTED BRINGING IN SOME 10-20 POPS IN  
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH  
THE DAY WITH THE INITIAL PUSH. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE  
GREAT BASIN, PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AROUND  
THE GILA REGION. MODELS AGREE ON PW'S APPROACHING 1" WHICH FOR  
EARLY DEC IS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING RECORDS, SO THESE AMOUNTS  
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MOST ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN  
THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH H70 TEMPS REMAINING WELL  
ABOVE ZERO, BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES, THE SNOW LEVELS BY  
MONDAY COULD FALL TOWARD 7KFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL  
COOL DOWN TOWARD AVERAGE FOR HIGHS, BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN  
THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. OPERATIONAL  
GFS OVER THE WEEKEND WAS ON THE COLDER SIDE OF IT'S ENSEMBLE  
SPREAD, SO TRENDED TOWARD WARMER HIGHS WHICH WERE MORE IN LINE  
WITH THE NBM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKIES FEW-  
BKN250. WEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS  
STAYING BREEZY AT ALL TERMINALS. LLWS IS A CONCERN FOR ALL TAF  
SITES EXCEPT FOR KTCS AND GENERALLY BEGINS AT 06Z AND STAYS A  
THREAT THROUGH AROUND 16Z. HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY, A WINDY DAY WILL BE IN STORE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER  
STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT FOR  
AREAS ABOVE 7500FT. TUESDAY THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE AREA. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST IN THE  
MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WILL MOISTEN A BIT  
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A  
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THAT  
WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TO AT AND BELOW THE NORMAL  
ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH  
THURSDAY BEING THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THE  
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER TUESDAY'S  
EVENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE THE AVERAGE ON FRIDAY  
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  
 
THE MIN RHS TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 14 AND 20% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 22  
AND 28% IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MIN RHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 14  
AND 28% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30 AND 50% IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE  
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR TO VERY GOOD TODAY AND GOOD TO  
EXCELLENT ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 43 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 39 65 37 54 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 36 62 32 60 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 38 63 30 58 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 26 40 27 43 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 60 30 58 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 35 52 36 56 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 36 63 30 62 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 34 61 30 65 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 37 66 30 54 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 40 70 36 61 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 39 60 33 56 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 39 69 35 62 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 38 65 34 61 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 63 33 59 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 37 62 27 58 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 38 63 29 60 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 41 65 33 62 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 36 63 33 57 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 35 49 25 47 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 31 51 26 49 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 28 49 25 48 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 34 53 26 52 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 38 59 28 58 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 37 62 27 57 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 27 52 22 55 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 35 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 24 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 29 53 24 60 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 37 57 31 57 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 39 64 32 66 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 39 64 30 62 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 64 32 63 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 36 58 33 61 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ402-408.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY  
FOR NMZ402-408.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ414>416.  
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR  
NMZ406.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM....99  
AVIATION...37-SLUSHER  
 
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