810
FXUS64 KEPZ 071731
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1131 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING LOWLAND HIGHS
TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY
AND FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING FOR THE CONUS FEATURES A LONG
WAVE RIDGE WEST AND TROUGH EAST. THERE IS A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
NORTHERN SONORA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE AN EASTERLY PUSH MOVED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY
BE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON. THE UL LOW OVER SONORA WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A MEAGER
MOISTURE TAP. DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
OVERNIGHT VIA POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AND DEFORMATION. THE
PROBLEM WILL BE THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE. CAMS SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWER FORMATION, BUT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. I
ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO THE GRIDS. THIS UL LOW SHIFTS TOWARD
THE BIG BEND BY TOMORROW EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, LEFT
SPLITS WILL BE FAVORED WITH SOME CAPE (500-750 J/KG) WITHIN THE
HAIL GROWTH ZONE, SO WE COULD SEE SOME DIME TO NICKLE SIZED HAIL.
HIGH LCLS VIA 35+ T-TD SPREADS WILL ALSO FAVOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A RATHER WARM DAY AS UL RIDGING TAKES OVER, BUT A
S/W TROUGH WILL CUT INTO THE RIDGE SOME ON SUNDAY. THAT TROUGH
WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR FORCING A WEAK SIDE/BACK DOOR FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH COOLING WITH THIS FRONT,
BUT IT WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE. A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VERY WARM BENEATH A
STRENGTHENING UL RIDGE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
BENEATH THIS RIDGE, BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER OUR MOUNTAINS WITH VERY LOW
THUNDERSTORM POPS IN THE GRIDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SKC-FEW100. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS. DIRECTION
WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THOUGH IT WILL
BE VERY WARM AND QUITE DRY. A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL SEEP INTO PARTS
OF HUDSPETH COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT WILL BE DRY ELSEWHERE WITH MIN HR
VALUES IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY WITH SINGLE-DIGIT MIN RH VALUES FORECAST. ON SUNDAY, A
FRONT WILL BRING MOISTURE TO FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE WARM AND DRY, LIGHT WINDS ARE
FORECAST THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD
TO VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING EXCELLENT FOR MOST AREAS
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 88 59 94 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 79 51 89 / 10 30 10 0
LAS CRUCES 50 86 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 85 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 63 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 85 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 80 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 89 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 85 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 86 60 93 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 85 51 93 / 10 20 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 87 56 96 / 10 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 52 79 55 86 / 10 20 0 0
FABENS 55 88 55 95 / 10 20 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 85 54 92 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 86 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 86 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 89 53 94 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 89 60 94 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 83 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 75 46 81 / 0 10 0 0
MESCALERO 41 74 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 40 71 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 40 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 51 84 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 85 51 91 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 81 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 83 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 44 87 48 91 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 44 83 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 82 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 50 85 54 91 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 49 85 55 90 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 85 53 90 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 80 55 85 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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