339
FXUS64 KEPZ 201633
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1033 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK, LOWERING
STORM CHANCES. LOWLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN REACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
OUR ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN PERSISTS FOR TODAY DUE TO ABOVE-NORMAL
MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LOW LINGERING JUST TO THE EAST. PWS APPROACH
1.5" WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WEAK STEERING FLOW,
COMBINING TO RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND
NOON, PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH RAIN RATES
ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN SW NEW MEXICO AND OTERO LOWLANDS,
WHERE THE 0Z HREF FOCUSES THE HIGHEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL. RAIN
TOTALS OF 2-3" ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS ACCORDING TO
THE HREF AND REFS. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE GILA AND MUCH OF OTERO COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ADDITIONAL THREATS.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES TO THE WEST FOR TUE AS THE MONSOON HIGH
STRETCHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN AREAS AROUND THE HIGH, LOWERING STORM CHANCES. AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION ON TUE WITH A
LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE FLOOD RISK OUT WEST LOOKS LOWER
THAN TODAY. ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST FURTHER EAST AS THE
MOISTURE ERODES.
THE UPPER HIGH SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, CONTINUING THE DRYING TREND. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFTOVER FOR ISOLATED MTN STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERALL. TEMPERATURES STAY COOL INTO
MIDWEEK BEFORE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT GAINS INFLUENCE. LOWLAND HIGHS CLIMB TO AOA 100 BY
THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER RGV AND EL
PASO. STORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE A BIT NEXT WEEKEND DEPENDING ON
THE LOCATION OF THE MONSOON HIGH AND ANY SHORTWAVES/MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND IT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
SCATTERED TS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, DRIFTING TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS FROM THE MTNS BY THE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CIGS TO
MVFR THRESHOLDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH
AMENDMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. KDMN IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE TS.
GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE FROM OUTFLOWS, OTHERWISE WINDS AOB 10KTS,
FAVORING S-SE DIRECTION. CONVECTION DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREA MTNS,
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LOWLANDS INTO THE EVENING. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT AROUND TODAY, ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST AND IN MUCH OF OTERO COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
THE FLOOD THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW ALONG THE RGV, BUT STILL
PRESENT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR MOVES IN STARTING TUE FROM THE EAST, PUSHING
STORM CHANCES TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
LATER THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY FROM THE S-SE.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 35-65% THROUGH TUE, FALLING TO 15-35% BY FRI.
VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO GOOD THROUGH TUE, THEN FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 89 72 95 / 40 20 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 86 64 91 / 30 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 64 86 66 92 / 50 20 40 10
ALAMOGORDO 64 88 68 93 / 40 40 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 49 68 51 71 / 50 60 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 86 69 90 / 50 50 30 10
SILVER CITY 59 80 61 84 / 60 70 60 30
DEMING 63 89 65 94 / 70 40 50 10
LORDSBURG 64 85 65 90 / 60 60 50 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 88 73 94 / 40 20 30 0
DELL CITY 66 91 69 96 / 30 20 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 69 92 72 98 / 50 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 63 82 66 88 / 40 20 20 10
FABENS 68 90 71 96 / 50 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 67 86 69 92 / 40 20 30 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 88 73 93 / 40 20 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 65 87 68 92 / 40 30 30 10
HATCH 66 90 67 95 / 40 40 30 20
COLUMBUS 68 88 69 93 / 70 30 50 0
OROGRANDE 64 87 67 92 / 40 30 30 10
MAYHILL 54 79 56 82 / 40 40 10 40
MESCALERO 53 78 55 81 / 40 70 20 70
TIMBERON 51 75 54 80 / 50 40 20 20
WINSTON 58 79 59 82 / 50 60 40 50
HILLSBORO 64 84 64 88 / 60 60 50 20
SPACEPORT 63 86 64 91 / 40 40 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 55 81 56 85 / 60 80 60 50
HURLEY 60 82 61 86 / 60 60 50 20
CLIFF 62 85 63 89 / 50 80 60 40
MULE CREEK 60 82 61 86 / 50 80 50 40
FAYWOOD 62 82 63 86 / 70 60 60 20
ANIMAS 64 84 65 90 / 70 60 40 10
HACHITA 62 84 63 89 / 70 50 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 82 64 89 / 70 60 50 10
CLOVERDALE 61 78 62 85 / 70 70 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER
CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-LOWLANDS
OF THE BOOTHEEL-OTERO MESA-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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