916
FXUS64 KEPZ 080340
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
940 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- DRIER AND HOTTER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MANY LOWLAND
AREAS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
- MOISTURE WILL OCCASIONALLY SEEP IN FROM THE EAST, GIVING THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE CWA TODAY AS OUR UPPER LOW IS
NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA. NEXT PACIFIC LONG-WAVE TROUGH HAS ENTERED
THE WEST COAST AND IS NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN DOWN TO WESTERN
ARIZONA. ONE SHORT-WAVE EJECTING OUT OF IT WILL RIDE UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR ANY
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH DOES DEEPEN AND DRIFT A BIT CLOSER
TO NEW MEXICO. THIS DOES INCREASE MID/UPPER FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH,
BRINGING SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. PWS AND INSTABILITY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS NO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE AS DRY-LINE REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
DRY-LINE DOES DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND MIXES
MOSTLY OUT ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SPARK A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OFF OVER THE SACS.
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH DOMINATES THE WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD; CENTERED
OVER SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND DRIFTING OVER THE CHIHUAHUAN DESERT
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHER DEWPOINTS DO FINALLY MOVE IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, BUT MODELS STILL DISAGREEING ON WESTERN EXTENT AND
DURATION OF THIS MOISTURE. FOR NOW LOW END POPS IN THE GRID FIELDS
IS PROBABLY THE BEST SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
RECORDING TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE HOT
SPOTS MAY BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT120 SCT-BKN250.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE, MOSTLY WEST AOB 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MIN RH
VALUES NEAR 10% EACH AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS CLIMB 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH, NEARING 15 MPH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. VENT CATEGORIES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DAILY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 97 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 65 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 96 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 58 90 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 100 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 63 96 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 72 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 63 99 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 69 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 66 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 68 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 67 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 62 98 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 67 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 70 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 63 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 55 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 20
TIMBERON 53 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 55 87 55 89 / 0 10 0 10
HILLSBORO 65 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 97 63 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 90 50 92 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 60 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 95 52 98 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 90 47 93 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 62 93 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 62 96 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 63 97 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 96 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 60 90 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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