269
FXUS64 KEPZ 101731
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1031 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH TEENS AND 20S IN THE LOWLANDS, AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILLS UNDER 15 DEGREES EXPECTED WEST.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
GRADUAL WARMUP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING TUESDAY.
- SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CHILLY AIR TO THE CWA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
STRONGLY POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH PERSISTS, EXTENDING FROM THE NM
BOOTHEEL UP THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR TONIGHT, LOOK FOR
CHILLY LOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE, THOUGH MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
THAN THIS MORNING. HENCE, WILL ISSUE ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR LUNA AND HIDALGO COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING SMALL CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE TROUGH OVER THE
MEXICAN SONORAN DESERT TONIGHT. THE MAIN MODEL SUITE ALL SHOW THIS
LOW EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND DRAWING SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE UP OVER THE BIG BEND
AND UP TO HUDSPETH COUNTY. NAM12 QUICKEST AND MOST BULLISH WITH
PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL GO MORE WITH GFS/ECMWF
SLOWER SPEED AND JUST BARELY NICKING HUDSPETH COUNTY. WILL KEEP THE
PRECIP TYPE RAIN, BUT THE FEW HIGHEST PEAKS OF HUDSPETH COULD GET
DUSTED WITH SNOW.
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS CUT OFF LOW EVEN FURTHER WEST
BY TUESDAY, UNDERCUTTING THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND SLOWLY
FORMING REX-BLOCK RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. THUS, WE WILL SEE A MODEST WARMUP AS THE COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHED FURTHER EAST BY THIS BLOCKING RIDGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
EAST AROUND 7-10 KNOTS TODAY...EXCEPT 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS LUNA AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES. WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS MOST AREAS
TONIGHT AFTER 03Z, EXCEPT BRISK WINDS CONTINUING OVER SW NEW
MEXICO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WE WILL REMAIN IN A
COOL, EASTERLY SURFACE WIND PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
AFTER MONDAY. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER HUDSPETH
COUNTY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, THE FIRE ZONES SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
WINDS BREEZY WINDS ON SUNDAY AT 10-20 MPH, BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN HUMIDITIES REMAIN A BIT
ELEVATED DUE TO THE COOL AIRMASS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 18-25% THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 20-35% THROUGH
FRIDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD SUNDAY, BECOMING MOSTLY POOR MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 28 55 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 22 50 31 50 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 22 51 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 21 51 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 16 37 18 42 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 24 50 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 23 46 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 25 52 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 27 49 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 29 54 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 17 54 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 21 56 33 56 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 25 48 31 50 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 23 56 32 56 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 24 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 28 53 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 18 52 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 21 54 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 25 52 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 22 53 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 18 47 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 17 48 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 16 45 19 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 14 44 18 49 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 24 49 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 18 51 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 15 47 18 52 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 22 48 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 17 54 19 57 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 13 51 16 54 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 27 47 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 26 50 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 24 49 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 23 50 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 28 45 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST MONDAY
FOR LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA
RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page