047
FXUS64 KEPZ 190536
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1136 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE
MONSOON PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A RISK, INCLUDING THE EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES AREAS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO SHIFT A LITTLE WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE ON MONDAY, THEN CLOSER TO THE ARIZONA BORDER FOR
TUESDAY.
- STORM CHANCES PLUMMET FROM WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. 100S MAY CREEP BACK INTO
THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE LOCALIZED AREAS
RECEIVING 2-4 INCH PRECIP BULLSEYES, AND RAINFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. A SIMILAR RISK FOR ISOLATED TORRENTIAL
RAIN WILL PERSIST TOMORROW, AND LINGER INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW THAT BARES MOST OF THE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THIS IS
WEAKENING AND LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE LUBBOCK AREA. WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NE FLOW ALOFT HELPED TO AMPLIFY CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORIGINATED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WERE
OTHERWISE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. WE STILL HAVE AN
AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY, WHICH WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MOSTLY
WEAK CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND HAS
A LITTLE MORE STEERING FLOW TO WORK WITH. THIS COULD SURVIVE INTO
LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOWERS IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. 200
MB STREAMLINES SHOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO GET PULLED INTO NE NEW MEXICO, BUT WILL REMAIN
AROUND -5C OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. PWAT VALUES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 1.35 TO 1.45 INCHES, WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG A
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS INTO
THE BOOTHEEL REGION (MOST NOTICEABLE AT 850 MB). THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A NEAR REPEAT OF SATURDAY, WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MOSTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE EL
PASO AREA AGAIN.
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY, AND
WHILE EARLIER IT HAD LOOKED LIKE THE WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR WOULD
NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS THIS TO OUR
NORTH FOR ANOTHER DAY, WITH UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC DIFFLUENT FLOW
REMAINING FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
MODELS SOMEWHAT PREFER SW NEW MEXICO FOR BEST PRECIP CHANCES ON
MONDAY, BUT THIS WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON STABILIZATION CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE (WHICH DEPENDS ON PRECIP COVERAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT).
BY TUESDAY, THE INVERTED TROUGH LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MID-LEVELS
BUT STILL SHOWS UP OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT 200 MB, WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE IN PLACE OVER SW NM. MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY OVER THE SIERRA MADRES, AND LOOKS TO STEER MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE BOOTHEEL AND NM-AZ BORDER REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE WARMER AIR ALOFT SHUTS DOWN CONVECTION NEAR AND
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS).
DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND
-3C. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS,
WHICH IS DECIDEDLY MONSOONAL. THE GFS ALSO HAS ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO MID-WEEK, PASSING OVER
DURANGO THURSDAY, AND LIFTING UP TOWARDS SONORA FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER. IT LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT OUR PRECIP CHANCES, AS A STUBBORN
TONGUE OF DRIER AND WARMER AIR PERSISTS NORTH OF THE BORDER,
DESPITE CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS UNFORTUNATELY FAVORS HOTTER TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK IN FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER-90S. CAN'T RULE OUT 100-102 FOR THE LOWLANDS TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOOKS TO PARK JUST TO OUR
NORTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SOME LINGERING SHRA ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NM AND W TX TONIGHT, BUT
CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARED AT LOCAL TAF SITES. VMC EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH SKIES FEW-SCT020 SCT-BKN070 AND LIGHT, VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.
SCATTERED TSRA AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SCT-BKN070CB. STORMS
LIKELY AFFECTING KELP/KLRU VICINITIES. PROB30 TSRA INCLUDED AT ALL S
NM SITES AND KELP BETWEEN 21-03Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTS UP TO 40KT AND TEMPORARY +RA. EXACT TIMING OF TS
IMPACTS WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z, IF NOT NEAR-TERM
AMENDMENTS TOMORROW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPORADIC NATURE OF TS
COVERAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY WITH DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR BURN SCARS. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN RH
VALUES IN THE MID 30S. BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, HOTTER
AND DRIER AIR WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH POOR TO FAIR VENTING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 90 70 89 / 50 40 50 50
SIERRA BLANCA 63 85 62 83 / 80 70 40 40
LAS CRUCES 65 88 65 87 / 40 40 40 50
ALAMOGORDO 66 87 65 86 / 40 60 30 60
CLOUDCROFT 50 67 49 67 / 40 80 30 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 90 68 90 / 10 30 30 40
SILVER CITY 59 83 60 82 / 30 60 50 80
DEMING 65 93 65 92 / 30 50 60 50
LORDSBURG 64 89 65 88 / 30 50 50 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 89 71 87 / 50 40 50 50
DELL CITY 66 89 66 88 / 50 70 30 40
FORT HANCOCK 70 91 69 89 / 60 50 50 50
LOMA LINDA 64 83 64 81 / 50 40 30 50
FABENS 69 91 68 89 / 60 40 50 50
SANTA TERESA 68 88 67 86 / 50 40 50 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 89 71 88 / 50 50 30 40
JORNADA RANGE 66 89 66 88 / 30 40 30 50
HATCH 67 93 66 92 / 20 40 30 50
COLUMBUS 70 91 69 90 / 50 50 70 50
OROGRANDE 65 86 65 86 / 50 40 30 40
MAYHILL 54 77 54 78 / 50 60 30 40
MESCALERO 54 77 53 78 / 50 70 30 90
TIMBERON 51 74 51 74 / 40 80 40 50
WINSTON 57 83 58 83 / 20 60 30 40
HILLSBORO 64 88 64 88 / 20 60 30 50
SPACEPORT 64 89 63 88 / 20 50 30 40
LAKE ROBERTS 55 84 55 84 / 30 70 50 70
HURLEY 60 86 61 85 / 30 70 50 60
CLIFF 62 89 63 88 / 40 70 40 70
MULE CREEK 60 85 60 85 / 40 80 30 60
FAYWOOD 62 86 62 85 / 20 70 40 50
ANIMAS 65 88 65 88 / 20 50 60 60
HACHITA 63 88 64 87 / 20 50 60 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 87 65 86 / 30 50 60 60
CLOVERDALE 62 81 62 81 / 20 50 60 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN/30-DENNHARDT
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