489
FXUS64 KEPZ 100444
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1044 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- WE WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THIS TIME MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH BLOWING DUST LIKELY ON MONDAY.
- FIRE CONDITIONS BECOMING AT LEAST ELEVATED SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
APRIL IS OUR DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR, BUT YOU WOULDN'T KNOW IT
LOOKING AT THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PW'S) WILL START THE DAY
AROUND 0.50 BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THOSE VALUES WILL NEARLY DOUBLE
TO 0.80 TO 1.00. WE WILL SEE A WIND CONVERGENT LINE DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
COLLIDING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE RIVER. THESE CONVERGING
WINDS WILL HELP PROVIDE LIFT FOR RAIN AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE DRIER
OUT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS SO RAIN WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR FRIDAY
EVENING WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON SATURDAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
MOISTURE BACK TO THE EAST A LITTLE, BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY. THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO ON SATURDAY, THE DRIER
AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES YOU WILL SEE. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR SUNDAY, WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF OUR USUAL SPRING TIME
PATTERN, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL END OUR RAIN CHANCES AND THE TROUGH WILL HELP
GIVE US SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER, WHICH IS NOT THE BEST
PLACE FOR STRONG WINDS, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND COULD GIVE US SOME BLOWING DUST. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL
GIVE US ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON. IF THE TROUGH SLOWS
DOWN OR SPEEDS UP BY 12 HOURS, WE COULD HAVE A SOME VERY STRONG
WINDS, BUT AS IT IS MIS-TIMED WE WILL LIKELY SEE JUST WINDY
CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
DEGREES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
WE WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH EITHER UNLIMITED
CEILINGS OR HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WE WILL HAVE MID TO HIGH CEILINGS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING; SCT-BKN100-250. BUT IN THE RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF BKN050 CEILINGS.
THE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT, BUT THEN WE WILL SEE LOW END WIND
GUSTS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WINDS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ONE THING WE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHFUL FOR
IS GUSTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CREATED BY THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
MORE TYPICAL SPRINGTIME WEATHER COMING INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
RIVER, FOR FRIDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND COULD INCLUDE SOME DRY LIGHTNING
IN THE GILA REGION. SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK IN
FROM W TO E AND BRING A RETURN TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL START TO PICK UP OUT WEST SAT BUT WILL BE STRONGER FOR
SUN/MON. THESE WILL BE THE DAYS WHEN SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. SUN WILL SEE WINDS OF 15-30MPH WITH 20-35MPH
FOR MON. RH'S WILL BE IN THE 8-15% RANGE WITH RFTI'S AROUND 3-4.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT RH'S WILL REMAIN BELOW 15%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 88 59 82 / 0 30 70 40
SIERRA BLANCA 52 83 54 75 / 10 20 70 70
LAS CRUCES 53 83 53 79 / 0 30 60 30
ALAMOGORDO 55 85 52 78 / 0 30 70 60
CLOUDCROFT 43 62 39 56 / 0 40 80 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 82 55 79 / 10 20 30 30
SILVER CITY 50 75 47 73 / 0 20 20 10
DEMING 52 85 52 82 / 0 30 30 20
LORDSBURG 51 82 49 79 / 0 10 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 86 61 82 / 0 30 60 30
DELL CITY 50 87 54 78 / 0 20 70 70
FORT HANCOCK 57 91 57 83 / 10 20 70 60
LOMA LINDA 55 81 54 74 / 0 30 70 50
FABENS 58 90 58 83 / 0 30 70 40
SANTA TERESA 56 85 56 81 / 0 30 60 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 86 58 81 / 0 30 60 40
JORNADA RANGE 51 85 51 80 / 0 30 60 30
HATCH 51 87 52 83 / 0 20 40 20
COLUMBUS 56 86 55 84 / 10 30 30 10
OROGRANDE 53 85 54 78 / 0 30 70 50
MAYHILL 45 75 44 68 / 0 40 70 80
MESCALERO 45 73 43 67 / 0 40 80 70
TIMBERON 44 71 43 64 / 0 40 80 70
WINSTON 43 74 41 72 / 10 20 20 20
HILLSBORO 54 80 51 78 / 0 20 30 20
SPACEPORT 49 83 49 79 / 10 20 50 30
LAKE ROBERTS 45 75 44 72 / 0 20 20 10
HURLEY 48 78 46 75 / 0 20 20 10
CLIFF 48 82 46 79 / 0 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 48 78 45 75 / 0 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 52 78 49 75 / 0 20 30 10
ANIMAS 53 83 50 80 / 0 20 10 10
HACHITA 51 83 49 80 / 0 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 83 51 80 / 0 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 54 78 52 74 / 0 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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