829
FXUS64 KEPZ 170341
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
941 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 940 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A CHILLY MORNING TUESDAY BEHIND OUR LATEST COLD FRONT. LIGHTER
WINDS, AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
- HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS, AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY WARMER BEGINNING TUESDAY. RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, AND LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HISTORIC MARCH HEAT BEGINNING FRIDAY, WITH LOWER TO
MID NINETIES ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING CLASSIC, BEAUTIFUL LOOKING REX
BLOCK HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS EVENING. THE ANCHOR HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BLOCK ANY AND ALL WEATHER FROM HAVING ANY CHANCE OF
MOVING NEAR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DOWN OVER NEW
MEXICO IN THE SHORT TERM, MEANING SOME CIRRUS STILL LIKELY OVER
HEAD ON TUESDAY. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE THEN DISAPPEARS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE BIG NEWS IS THE RAPID ONSET OF VERY WARM (HOT) TEMPERATURES.
AS THE REX BLOCK HIGH BEGINS BREAKING DOWN, THE ANCHOR HIGH
DRIFTS EASTWARD, SETTLING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
AND BEYOND WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS ALREADY
INCREASE BY AROUND 15 DEG TUESDAY, PUTTING A RAPID END TO OUR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OF TODAY. THUS, HIGHS TUESDAY CLIMB BACK
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND JUST KEEP GOING UP FROM THERE. BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL; MEANING HIGHS 90-95 FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
70-85 MOUNTAINS. EL PASO'S RECORD FOR EARLIEST 90+ DEG READING IS
MARCH 18. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF US TYING THAT EARLIEST
DAY, BUT MORE LIKELY SEEING OUR FIRST 90+ ON THE 19TH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST/WEST 7-10
KNOTS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH COOLER AIR
IN PLACE ON BREEZY EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND CONDITIONS. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS QUITE DRY, WITH NO PRECIP, AND NOT MUCH RH RECOVERY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE SUSPENDED DUST WILL SETTLE
THIS AFTN/EVE. YESTERDAY'S ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY ABATED, WITH THE LOSS OF THE STRONG
WINDS, DESPITE SOME LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS.
FOR THE WEEK, A PRETTY SIMPLE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT, THAT IS NOW TO OUR WEST, WILL
STRENGTHEN, EXPAND, AND DRIFT EAST OVER OUR REGION. THIS IS A
FEATURE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER. AS SUCH, WE WILL SEE A RISE IN
TEMPERATURES MORE AKIN TO THOSE SEEN MAY/JUNE, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE 90S. THE HIGH WILL KEEP ANY PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WELL TO
OUR NORTH, SO WE WILL STAY DRY, AND IN FACT, GET MUCH DRIER. MIN
RH WILL FALL INTO THE 3-5% RANGE DAILY MID WEEK AND BEYOND, WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES STRUGGLING TO REACH 30%, AND LIKELY IN THE
20-30% RANGE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THUS FUELS WILL DRY
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH NEW FIRE STARTS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY. THE ONLY WEATHER ELEMENT WORKING IN OUR FAVOR WILL BE
THE LIGHTER WINDS, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE HELPING TO KEEP OUR
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS SAME PERIOD.
MODELS DON'T SEE THE PATTERN CHANGING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
MONDAY, SO NO PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE MODEL
SUGGEST A QUICK PASSING TROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIP POTENTIAL, BUT OTHER MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 78 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 74 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 76 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 74 41 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 56 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 79 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 40 73 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 38 80 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 79 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 77 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 29 77 40 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 82 47 90 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 70 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 40 79 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 38 76 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 77 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 31 77 37 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 34 81 42 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 80 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 31 73 37 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 33 72 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 30 66 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 64 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 32 76 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 41 79 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 30 78 37 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 33 77 36 84 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 37 76 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 34 81 33 89 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 78 30 86 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 39 76 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 39 80 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 37 79 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 80 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 45 77 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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