659  
FXUS64 KEPZ 181706  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
1106 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON,  
THEN FAVORING WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE  
WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH  
FLOODING.  
 
- NEAR NORMAL LATE JULY TEMPERATURES, LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
NINETIES TO ONE HUNDRED DEGREES.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
MONSOONAL UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES,  
EXTENDING WEST ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO TODAY. STEADY FLOW  
ALOFT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OUR ONGOING WEATHER PATTERN  
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TWO UPPER LOWS CAN BE SEEN ON  
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ONE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND  
THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MINIMAL SYNOPTIC  
FORCING IS PRESENT, LACKING WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND CLOUD LAYER MEAN  
FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS WEAK  
SUBSIDENT FLOW WITHIN THE 500 MB LAYER, FURTHER ERODING CONVECTIVE  
ACCELERATION TODAY.  
 
MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND PW  
VALUES 1.2-1.4" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER SW NEW MEXICO, WHERE I EXPECT THUNDERSTORM  
COVERAGE TO BE A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING.  
   
..TODAY AND TONIGHT
 
 
EARLY START TO STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH SCATTERED  
TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE BLACK RANGE, GILA FOREST, AND  
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BURN SCAR FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN  
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NM  
LOWLANDS, FAVORING SW NEW MEXICO WITH SCATTERED HIT-AN-MISS  
COVERAGE. MOST (IF NOT ALL) STORMS WILL BE NON-SEVERE BUT COULD  
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL STICK  
AROUND LATER TONIGHT, DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
   
..THIS WEEKEND
 
 
BETTER STORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AS  
THE PLUME OF DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS WESTWARD. BEST CHANCES WILL  
BE MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, IN PARTICULAR GRANT/HIDALGO  
COUNTIES. TEXAS COUNTIES MAY END UP COMPLETELY DRY.  
   
..MONDAY AND TUESDAY
 
 
UPTICK IN STORM CHANCE ONCE AGAIN AS THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE  
FOCUSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. GFS SHOWS PWS IN THE 1.4-1.6" RANGE,  
FURTHER INCREASING FLOODING RISK.  
   
..LATE NEXT WEEK
 
 
UPPER HIGH MAKES A FULL RETROGRADE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US BY  
NEXT WEDNESDAY, SUPPRESSING STORM SEVERITY AND REDUCING COVERAGE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND  
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AFTER  
WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED OVER MOUNTAINS AND MORE  
ISOLATED ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP  
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 90S EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
SCT-BKN090CB THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHER STORM COVERAGE  
ACROSS W NM. DIRECT STORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KTCS/KDMN THIS  
EVENING, LOWER CHANCES FOR KELP/KLRU. OMITTED MENTION OF TS AT  
KELP THIS CYCLE DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT VCTS IS POSSIBLE  
BETWEEN 23-03Z THIS EVENING. WILL AMEND TAF IF CONFIDENCE  
INCREASES. SURFACE WINDS 150-180 AT 05-10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER  
SURFACE GUSTS NEAR TS OUTFLOWS. LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES SCT-BKN110  
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
PRIMARY FIRE THREAT REMAINS FOCUSED AROUND THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.  
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS BOTH GNF AND LNF THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING  
ACROSS THE NM LOWLANDS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AROUND BURN SCARS. PREVAILING WINDS OUT  
OF THE SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH RESULTING IN FAIR VENTILATION AND MIN RH  
30-40% TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE  
BEST CHANCES ACROSS GNF AND WESTERN NM. NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE  
WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES,  
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT PREVAILING FLOW.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 75 99 77 100 / 40 10 10 10  
SIERRA BLANCA 66 92 68 93 / 20 10 10 20  
LAS CRUCES 68 95 70 96 / 60 10 30 10  
ALAMOGORDO 70 96 71 96 / 30 20 10 20  
CLOUDCROFT 52 73 53 74 / 30 40 10 50  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 94 71 95 / 60 40 40 40  
SILVER CITY 63 87 62 88 / 70 70 70 70  
DEMING 68 97 70 98 / 70 30 50 30  
LORDSBURG 67 94 67 93 / 70 70 70 60  
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 96 75 97 / 50 10 20 10  
DELL CITY 71 97 71 98 / 20 10 0 10  
FORT HANCOCK 74 99 75 100 / 20 10 10 30  
LOMA LINDA 68 90 69 91 / 30 10 10 20  
FABENS 73 97 75 98 / 30 10 10 10  
SANTA TERESA 71 95 73 96 / 50 10 20 20  
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 96 75 97 / 50 10 20 20  
JORNADA RANGE 69 95 70 96 / 60 20 30 30  
HATCH 69 97 70 98 / 60 30 40 30  
COLUMBUS 71 96 72 97 / 70 20 50 20  
OROGRANDE 69 94 71 95 / 30 10 10 20  
MAYHILL 57 83 58 84 / 30 40 10 40  
MESCALERO 56 84 58 85 / 30 40 10 50  
TIMBERON 56 81 57 82 / 30 30 10 40  
WINSTON 58 85 58 85 / 70 60 50 70  
HILLSBORO 64 93 65 93 / 70 50 50 50  
SPACEPORT 67 94 67 96 / 60 30 30 30  
LAKE ROBERTS 57 88 57 88 / 70 80 70 80  
HURLEY 63 90 63 90 / 70 60 60 60  
CLIFF 66 94 66 95 / 60 80 60 70  
MULE CREEK 63 89 63 90 / 60 80 60 70  
FAYWOOD 65 90 65 90 / 70 60 60 60  
ANIMAS 68 93 68 93 / 70 70 80 60  
HACHITA 66 92 67 93 / 70 60 70 50  
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 91 67 90 / 80 70 80 70  
CLOVERDALE 63 86 63 85 / 80 80 80 70  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
NM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page