586
FXUS64 KEPZ 030438
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1038 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
- WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN REACHING THE GROUND IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
- WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
- TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER, WITH LOWLANDS HIGHS STAYING BELOW
THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST OF
THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR THIS YEAR. AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO
SEPTEMBER IT GETS HARDER AND HARDER TO HIT 100F. CASE AND POINT,
THURSDAY'S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS ONLY 101F. NOW WE MAY BE
FINISHED WITH THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT, BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN ANY
GREAT COOL DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WHICH MEANS
LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90'S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FACTOR HELPING TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OF OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW'S) WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE RANGE OF 1.2 TO 1.3
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HELP FUEL
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WE WON'T SEE RAIN
ALL OVER THE PLACE EACH AFTERNOON, BUT WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOOKING
JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS PARKS OUR OLD FRIEND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH ALLOWS COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS A LOBE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANING INTO NEW MEXICO AND
THAT REALLY LIMITS ANY MOISTURE INFLUX GETTING INTO THE AREA.
CONSIDERING HOW OUR SUMMER HAS BEEN GOING, I'M TENDING TO LEARN
MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN MEXICO HAVE CREATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTH. THE BOUNDARY DOESN'T LOOK TOO
STRONG, BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES A FEW
HOURS OF LOW END GUSTY WINDS. SINCE IT IS NEARLY MIDNIGHT I AM
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE BLOWING DUST AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES
THROUGH. LATER THURSDAY MORNING, WE WILL LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THOSE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL DRIFT NORTH AND GIVE US SOME MID AND HIGH
CEILINGS MOST OF TONIGHT, AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OF THE STORMS WILL IMPACT
ANY OF OUR TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
BEGINNING TODAY AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, WILL BE IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 20S AND LOW-TO-MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO MOISTURE IN
THE REGION. RECOVERY RHS WILL BE EXCELLENT FOR THE REGION, WITH
MAX RHS INCREASING FROM THE UPPER 40S TODAY TO THE 60S AND 70S BY
THE WEEKEND BEFORE FALLING TO THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY, WITH THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, PARTS
OF HUDSPETH COUNTY, AND THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL HAVING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEE A
SPOTTY SHOWER OR TOO, BUT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT, THERE WILL JUST BE
CLOUDS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO STARTING TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY OUT
WEST AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS (30-50% CHANCE), BUT THE
LOWLANDS WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THESE
STORMS, BUT THANKS TO THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE, NEW LIGHTNING
STARTS WILL REMAIN A LOW RISK. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH
WILL LEAD TO VENTILATION RATES RANGING FROM GOOD TO VERY GOOD
TODAY. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE VENTILATION RATES FALL TO FAIR
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND POOR ON SATURDAY. VENTILATION RATES
WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL RUN ABOUT 5
DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 97 73 95 / 10 0 30 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 94 65 92 / 10 10 30 20
LAS CRUCES 68 96 68 94 / 0 10 30 20
ALAMOGORDO 69 96 69 94 / 0 10 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 52 72 51 71 / 0 30 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 93 70 93 / 0 10 30 30
SILVER CITY 62 86 61 85 / 0 30 40 40
DEMING 68 95 67 94 / 0 10 30 10
LORDSBURG 67 91 66 89 / 0 30 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 97 75 95 / 10 0 30 10
DELL CITY 71 98 69 97 / 10 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 74 101 72 98 / 10 10 40 20
LOMA LINDA 68 90 67 88 / 0 10 30 10
FABENS 73 98 71 96 / 10 0 40 10
SANTA TERESA 72 95 70 93 / 10 0 30 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 97 72 95 / 0 10 30 20
JORNADA RANGE 68 95 68 94 / 0 10 30 20
HATCH 69 98 69 97 / 0 10 30 20
COLUMBUS 73 96 71 94 / 10 10 30 10
OROGRANDE 68 95 68 93 / 0 0 30 10
MAYHILL 57 85 56 85 / 0 40 20 70
MESCALERO 56 84 56 83 / 0 30 20 60
TIMBERON 55 83 54 81 / 0 10 30 30
WINSTON 58 84 57 84 / 0 40 30 60
HILLSBORO 67 92 66 91 / 0 30 20 40
SPACEPORT 67 95 66 93 / 0 0 30 30
LAKE ROBERTS 56 85 55 84 / 0 40 40 40
HURLEY 63 89 62 88 / 0 30 30 30
CLIFF 65 93 65 91 / 0 20 30 40
MULE CREEK 62 88 61 86 / 0 20 40 40
FAYWOOD 65 89 64 88 / 0 20 30 30
ANIMAS 67 90 66 89 / 10 50 40 30
HACHITA 67 91 65 89 / 10 30 40 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 88 64 87 / 40 50 40 40
CLOVERDALE 63 82 62 81 / 30 50 40 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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