832
FXUS64 KEPZ 210416
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
916 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
.NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 912 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
- LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING OVER AT LEAST
THE NEXT WEEK. LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN, FEW CLOUDS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS, AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS BY THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLIER TODAY,
BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA, IS NOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
WINDS BEGAN DIMINISHING RIGHT AROUND 00Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN OFF THROUGH TONIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST. THE LOW AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DID BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SC CLOUDS, MOSTLY
OVER GRANT COUNTY, AND THOSE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
ALSO A STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE
DISSIPATED/OUT OF AREA NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE WEATHER CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THOUGH NOT EVER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, THE RIDGE DOES
BEGIN FLATTENING OUT BY TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS SUB-TROPICAL AND POLAR
JETS MERGE AND MIGRATE SOUTH. BOTTOM LINE IS WE SHOULD STAY DRY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO BE LONG LASTING.
THE OTHER THING THIS PATTERN ACCOMPLISHES IS TO BRING THE HEAT
BACK TO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
MONDAY, AND BY THE WED-FRI TIMELINE, WE COULD BE PUSHING RECORD
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW LOWER 80S LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WED-FRI. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE TEMPS RISE TO
THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THIS SAME PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 912 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MAINLY SKC-SCT250. SCT-
BKN080 OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE DISSIPATING NEXT FEW HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS. WIND INCREASING AFTER 18Z TO
WEST 8-12 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY REACHING CRITICAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TOP 20-FOOT SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH,
ALONG WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. MIN RH VALUES THOUGH WILL STAY
WELL ABOVE 20% FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY PARTS OF HUDSPETH
COUNTY DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, VENTING
WILL BE EXCELLENT FOR NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS.
AFTER TODAY, WE START A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON MIN RH
VALUES WELL INTO THE TEENS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH, MITIGATING
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. VENTING THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE POOR TO
GOOD, IMPROVING FOR NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 37 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 61 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 30 58 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 30 59 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 19 40 22 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 30 56 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 25 53 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 30 60 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 26 59 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 38 61 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 30 61 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 36 68 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 33 57 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 35 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 32 60 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 60 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 27 58 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 27 61 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 33 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 24 52 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 21 51 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 27 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 17 50 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 27 55 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 25 57 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 19 55 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 24 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 22 61 24 66 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 18 57 21 63 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 27 54 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 28 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 59 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 30 61 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 32 58 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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