954
FXUS64 KEPZ 200431
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1031 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 934 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
- ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ON MONDAY.
WHILE DOING SO, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL OVERLAY THE REGION.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHT CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
40-50 DEGREES, PROMOTING VIRGA WITH SAID SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWLANDS. THAT SAID, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY), DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERLAY THE REGION AS A SLOW PROGRESSING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASING PVA AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL FOSTER LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE FRONT RANGE WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. THAT SAID, AT THIS MOMENT WINDS EACH DAY WITH REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA IN TERMS OF WIND PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH, WITH THE BREEZIEST DAYS BEING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES GENERALLY FEW TO SCT AT
VARYING HEIGHTS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB AFTER 09Z. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP RH'S WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY BUT DRIER AIR STARTS MOVING
INTO THE WEST ON TUE AND AREAWIDE BY WED. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MORESO MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MON/TUE BUT
STARTING WED, EXPECT DAILY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
GENERALLY 15-25G35MPH EACH DAY, SO SOME CRITICAL AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY BUT BY TUE WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 81 56 86 / 20 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 44 75 48 81 / 20 40 30 20
LAS CRUCES 46 78 50 84 / 10 10 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 78 50 84 / 10 40 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 34 57 39 60 / 10 40 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 78 52 83 / 10 40 20 10
SILVER CITY 44 73 48 77 / 10 30 10 0
DEMING 47 81 50 86 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 48 79 49 84 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 80 58 86 / 20 20 10 10
DELL CITY 44 78 47 85 / 20 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 49 83 54 89 / 20 40 30 20
LOMA LINDA 46 74 52 78 / 20 30 20 10
FABENS 50 83 54 88 / 10 20 20 10
SANTA TERESA 49 79 53 85 / 10 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 80 56 85 / 20 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 44 80 47 85 / 20 20 20 10
HATCH 46 83 48 87 / 10 20 10 0
COLUMBUS 50 82 53 87 / 10 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 46 78 49 83 / 20 30 20 10
MAYHILL 38 67 41 73 / 10 40 20 20
MESCALERO 37 68 41 72 / 20 40 30 20
TIMBERON 37 65 41 69 / 20 40 30 20
WINSTON 37 70 39 76 / 10 50 20 10
HILLSBORO 46 77 49 82 / 10 30 20 0
SPACEPORT 44 78 47 84 / 10 30 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 39 73 43 77 / 10 40 10 0
HURLEY 41 75 45 80 / 10 20 10 0
CLIFF 44 80 46 84 / 10 30 10 0
MULE CREEK 44 76 46 79 / 10 20 10 0
FAYWOOD 44 75 49 79 / 10 20 10 0
ANIMAS 46 80 49 85 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 45 80 48 85 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 80 50 84 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 76 52 78 / 10 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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