945
FXUS64 KEPZ 240410
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1010 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- MORE STORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, MOSTLY FROM THE RIO GRANDE
EAST. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL ALSO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME
IN THE EAST. HIGHEST LOCAL RISKS ACROSS OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES.
- DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT MORE RAIN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
DEEP, LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE CWA FROM THE RG VALLEY
EAST WITH PWS OF AROUND AN INCH. THIS COULD BE FROM ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH THAT ROTATED AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL. OUR ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER SEEMED TO ALIGN WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THIS LAYERED
MOISTURE, WITH CONVECTION NOW WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND MOSTLY OVER
OTERO COUNTY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN ARIZONA
WILL ROTATE EASTWARD SATURDAY, REACHING THE RG VALLEY MID AFTERNOON.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CONVECTIVE INITIATOR, LIMITING MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE VALLEY EAST STARTING MID AFTERNOON. MUCAPES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST SATURDAY, AND MUCH LIKE TODAY, DECENT
SPEED SHEAR WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
THUS, SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY IN THE EAST.
SAME STORY MOSTLY ON SUNDAY, THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OVER
UTAH AND THE MAIN TROUGH FROM THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO, THE
CONVECTIVE FOCUS MAY SHIFT EVEN A BIT FURTHER EAST.
THE ENVIRONMENT STILL KEEPS MUCAPES OF AROUND 500-1000 J/KG, BUT
WITH MID LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST, SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IS INTRODUCED BACK INTO THE AREA. HAIL LIKELY TO BE THE BIGGEST
THREAT AGAIN; SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT LOWER PWS AND THE
CONTINUED RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD KEEP THIS THREAT
LOWER.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR AT UPPER LEVELS MOVES IN AS
UPPER FLOW TURNS WESTERLY. HOWEVER MID LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY
MONDAY SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINS OVER HUDSPETH/OTERO
COUNTIES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL DRAW UP MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL ALSO FOLLOW FOR BOTH THESE DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...SCT080 BKN150 OVC250 WITH ISOLD OVC050
SHRA, MAINLY OVER OTERO COUNTY UNTIL AROUND 12Z. DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER 22Z...SCATTERED BKN060CB 3-5SM TSRA, MAINLY FROM THE RG VALLEY
EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT VARIABLE AOB 8 KNOTS, BECOMING
SOUTH 10-15G25 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
FIRE THREATS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES ALMOST
DAILY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MIN RH'S 25-30% SOUTHWEST AND 50-60% EAST. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 15MPH EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. VENT
RATES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD SAT AND MAINLY GOOD ON SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 80 57 75 / 80 50 60 30
SIERRA BLANCA 56 78 53 73 / 60 50 70 50
LAS CRUCES 55 78 52 74 / 70 40 40 10
ALAMOGORDO 56 76 52 71 / 100 70 80 30
CLOUDCROFT 45 60 43 58 / 100 80 90 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 71 51 68 / 70 70 30 0
SILVER CITY 49 67 47 65 / 40 50 10 0
DEMING 54 77 50 73 / 30 40 20 0
LORDSBURG 54 73 47 71 / 10 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 80 59 75 / 90 40 50 20
DELL CITY 58 78 56 73 / 80 70 90 60
FORT HANCOCK 62 87 59 81 / 70 60 60 60
LOMA LINDA 55 74 52 68 / 80 60 60 50
FABENS 60 84 57 79 / 80 70 60 50
SANTA TERESA 58 78 55 73 / 80 30 40 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 78 56 73 / 90 60 80 30
JORNADA RANGE 55 76 52 71 / 80 60 60 20
HATCH 55 77 52 74 / 70 50 30 20
COLUMBUS 57 80 54 75 / 20 20 10 0
OROGRANDE 55 76 53 71 / 90 60 70 40
MAYHILL 50 67 48 66 / 100 80 100 50
MESCALERO 48 69 46 66 / 90 70 90 40
TIMBERON 46 66 44 62 / 100 70 80 40
WINSTON 47 67 40 65 / 60 70 10 0
HILLSBORO 52 72 46 69 / 60 60 10 0
SPACEPORT 52 73 50 69 / 70 70 50 20
LAKE ROBERTS 46 68 39 66 / 40 60 20 0
HURLEY 49 71 48 67 / 40 40 10 0
CLIFF 50 73 44 71 / 30 50 10 0
MULE CREEK 45 68 39 66 / 20 40 10 0
FAYWOOD 51 70 48 66 / 50 50 20 0
ANIMAS 54 76 48 74 / 0 10 0 0
HACHITA 54 76 48 73 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 78 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 70 46 70 / 0 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-OTERO MESA-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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