661
FXUS64 KEPZ 061140
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
540 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
- HIT AND MISS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- DRIER AIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY, AS WESTERLY
FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE BACK EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING WINDS LATE WEEK, WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
WARMER TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NM INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING OUT WEST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OUT BY LATE TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK TAME
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZINESS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE PACIFIC AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND YET ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
MOISTURE TO GIVE US INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. INITIALLY WE WILL HAVE HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250,
BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY WE WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS OF
BKN120-100 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS CEILINGS MAY LOWER FURTHER, ESPECIALLY IN AREA RAIN SHOWERS.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT FOR KTCS AND KDMN. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AND WE WILL SEE MORE
LOW END WIND GUSTS, BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY. THE RAIN CHANCES AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY SO MIN RH'S
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20% BOTH AFTERNOONS. THE MOISTURE WON'T LAST
LONG AS WE WILL BE DRIER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, WITH
MIN RH'S IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL HAVE LOW END BREEZY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN WE WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 79 53 84 / 60 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 76 45 81 / 70 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 48 75 48 81 / 60 20 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 73 45 81 / 80 50 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 50 35 58 / 80 70 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 73 50 81 / 80 50 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 70 45 75 / 70 20 0 0
DEMING 49 78 47 84 / 70 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 45 77 45 82 / 40 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 79 54 84 / 50 10 0 0
DELL CITY 46 77 42 85 / 60 30 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 84 49 88 / 60 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 48 72 48 77 / 50 20 0 0
FABENS 52 82 50 87 / 40 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 50 78 48 83 / 50 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 76 53 83 / 60 30 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 75 44 83 / 70 30 0 0
HATCH 49 78 45 85 / 80 30 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 81 50 85 / 50 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 74 45 81 / 70 30 0 0
MAYHILL 36 62 38 72 / 70 60 10 10
MESCALERO 36 61 37 69 / 80 70 20 10
TIMBERON 36 60 38 68 / 70 60 10 10
WINSTON 37 67 37 74 / 80 50 10 0
HILLSBORO 46 72 48 80 / 80 30 0 0
SPACEPORT 44 73 42 82 / 80 30 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 69 40 75 / 80 30 0 0
HURLEY 42 72 43 78 / 60 10 0 0
CLIFF 44 78 42 83 / 60 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 74 43 78 / 60 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 72 47 78 / 70 20 0 0
ANIMAS 46 79 48 83 / 30 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 78 46 83 / 40 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 80 49 83 / 30 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 74 50 77 / 30 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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