670  
FXUS64 KEPZ 242333  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
533 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020  
 
   
AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES SKC-SCT100 THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND  
SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS.  
 

 
 
ROGASH  
   
PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. LIGHT  
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS WEEKEND, BUT WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN  
MOSTLY CALM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN MONDAY MORNING, AND  
WILL COOL OUR TEMPERATURES TO 10 - 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDY MONDAY, BUT THE AREA WILL STAY MOSTLY  
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND NORMAL NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
 
 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WILL GET FLATTENED  
OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO  
SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP. BEFORE  
THE WINDS TURN WESTERLY TOMORROW, THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO START THE  
EVENING AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE S TO SE AREAS EAST OF THE RIO  
GRANDE. EXPECT SKIES TO BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND WITH DRY LOW LEVELS  
STILL IN PLACE, SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS DROP TO LOWS SIMILAR TO  
LAST NIGHT AND BELOW GUIDANCE AGAIN.  
 
FOR FRIDAY, AS WINDS TURN WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP TO  
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. RECORD FOR KELP IS 96 DEGREES, WENT  
WITH 98 GIVEN DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS AND H85 TEMPERATURES INTO THE 31C  
RANGE. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH SEVERAL  
OTHER RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS PW'S FALL  
INTO THE 0.50 TO 0.65 INCH RANGE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
 
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST  
OVER AZ, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND.  
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 850MB  
TEMPS REACHING 30C. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE HOT ENOUGH FOR  
HITTING 100F IN THE DESERT, AS OUR SUNLIGHT HOURS ARE LESS AND 500MB  
HEIGHTS TOP OUT AROUND 588 DECIMETERS.  
 
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES WILL INDUCE A LEE SIDE TROUGH  
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE  
SOUTH, SLIDING DOWN THE CO/KS BORDER AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT, INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS  
A RATHER LARGE AND COLD SYSTEM THAT BEGINS TO SHOVES THIS SURFACE  
TROUGH SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SUNDAY, BRINING COOLER  
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES TO THE AREA.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A 1020MB SURFACE AIR MASS  
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WHICH WILL CAUSE  
SOME STRONGER WINDS AS IT PUSHES WEST, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST  
SLOPES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO  
MONDAY MID DAY, AS THE COOLER AIR FILLS UP OUR CWA. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 - 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR  
MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS DRY, SO DRY THAT THERE WILL BE MINIMAL TO NO  
CLOUD COVER WITH THIS.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DIGS DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY,  
BRINING NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA AGAIN. A FEW SHORT WAVES ROTATE  
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO OUR EAST TO  
WASH UP TO OUR AREA AGAIN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL TO A  
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK. WINDS COULD BE BREEZY FROM A  
TIGHTENING IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LITTLE TO NO  
PRECIPITATION THREATS, AS PW'S STAY AT OR BELOW 0.75 INCHES.  
 
A RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD OVER NV FRIDAY, WHICH COULD WARM  
TEMPERATURES OUT WEST TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH MOVES OVER OUR  
AREA NEXT WEEKEND, BUT GFS WEAKENS IT BY THE TIME IT REACHES US.  
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP FROM THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES AREA  
NEXT SUNDAY, WHICH COULD DROP ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT DAY WHICH WILL BRING WINDS  
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND ALLOW HIGHS TO APPROACH RECORDS INTO THE  
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS. WHILE  
WINDS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST, THEY  
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL DROP HIGHS ABOUT 20 TO  
30 DEGREES, AND BRING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT NO  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.  
 

 
 
26-GRZYWACZ  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 63 98 64 97 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 59 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 57 96 61 94 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 57 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 46 72 49 73 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 59 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 56 96 61 97 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 57 94 61 94 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 98 67 98 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 55 96 60 99 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 60 98 66 101 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 59 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 60 98 66 97 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 58 96 62 97 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 95 65 96 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 51 95 62 93 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 58 97 61 95 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 58 96 64 97 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 59 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 52 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 50 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 46 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 48 88 51 88 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 54 92 59 94 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 55 95 61 93 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 41 86 51 88 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 56 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 51 94 58 94 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 48 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 57 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 55 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 56 95 59 94 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 58 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
05-ROGASH/35/99  
 
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