890
FXUS64 KEPZ 191830
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1230 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S TO LOWER 100S, WHICH WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORDS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY, LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SPREAD AREA WIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
A 596 DAM UPPER HIGH AT 500 MB IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
AZ. RECYCLED MOISTURE OF PWATS BETWEEN 0.8 TO 1 INCH COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH A
GENERAL STORM MOTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEARBY LOWER
ELEVATIONS HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY STORM ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
ON AREA BURN SCARS AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
REST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL BE HOT AND
MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THREATEN DAILY RECORDS. A
MOSTLY CARBON COPY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE 500 MB HIGH PIVOTS EAST TO OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY AND
OVER THE CO/NM BORDER FRIDAY. STORM MOTION WILL GO FROM WEST-
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY.
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BECOMES
PRETTY MINIMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE 500 MB HIGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PIVOTING BACK
WEST TO OVER CENTRAL NM NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE HEAT WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS
AREAWIDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY OUTFLOWS MAY
ACCOMPANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER HIGH TERRAIN. INCLUDED A PROB30 AT KTCS FROM 23Z-02Z FOR A
LOW POTENTIAL OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM NEARBY STORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS. THE OTHER TAF SITES LOOK TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH TO SEE IMPACTS FROM TODAY'S STORM ACTIVITY. LIGHT WINDS
WITH LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW AND TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM. MEANWHILE, MAINLY DRY WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. MINIMAL STORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PIVOTING BACK WEST TO
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO NEXT WEEK. FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION TODAY
AND TOMORROW BEFORE BECOMING GOOD TO VERY GOOD FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 102 75 102 / 0 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 102 67 98 / 0 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 100 70 102 / 10 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 100 71 98 / 0 20 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 54 76 / 10 50 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 100 72 99 / 20 10 20 0
SILVER CITY 63 90 63 93 / 10 50 10 10
DEMING 69 101 71 101 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 69 99 69 100 / 10 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 102 77 102 / 0 10 0 0
DELL CITY 70 104 71 101 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 105 75 104 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 97 70 95 / 0 10 0 0
FABENS 72 103 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 100 73 100 / 0 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 103 76 101 / 0 20 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 102 72 100 / 10 20 10 0
HATCH 71 102 71 103 / 10 20 10 0
COLUMBUS 74 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 103 70 99 / 0 20 0 0
MAYHILL 59 88 59 88 / 10 30 0 20
MESCALERO 58 86 57 87 / 10 50 10 50
TIMBERON 57 89 56 85 / 0 30 0 30
WINSTON 62 91 62 90 / 20 30 20 20
HILLSBORO 69 97 69 98 / 10 20 20 0
SPACEPORT 69 100 69 99 / 10 30 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 89 58 91 / 10 50 10 50
HURLEY 64 93 65 96 / 10 30 10 10
CLIFF 66 95 66 100 / 10 50 10 10
MULE CREEK 64 93 64 96 / 10 60 10 10
FAYWOOD 67 95 68 95 / 10 30 20 0
ANIMAS 70 99 70 101 / 10 10 20 0
HACHITA 69 99 69 99 / 0 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 98 69 99 / 0 0 10 0
CLOVERDALE 65 93 66 94 / 10 10 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99-GUEST
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