750
FXUS64 KEPZ 171140
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
540 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
- THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST,
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE GILA REGION, AND
BRIEF BUT ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. CHANCES
FOR STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS AROUND LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO WILL
BE LIMITED TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 PERCENT AS INSTABILITY EASES.
- DRY, HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO LOWLANDS BY MIDWEEK.
- THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, BUT MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLINGS TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
TODAY FOLLOWED THE FORECAST SCRIPT FAIRLY WELL, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE, SOME FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS, AND A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DOWN INTO PARTS OF THE EL PASO AREA. THE
FAR EAST SIDE TAKING A HIT TWO DAYS IN A ROW WAS UNUSUAL, THOUGH
PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE SAW SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. IT
WAS A LITTLE QUIETER THAN EXPECTED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP IN THE GILA WAS VERY ISOLATED, ANY
MOSTLY ALONG THE MIMBRES AND SAPILLO CREEK VALLEYS.
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE REALLY ALL THAT'S LEFT OF THE
CONVECTION. RAP 200 MB STREAMLINES SHOW THE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
THAT WAS PRESENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM HAS COLLAPSED, SO SUPPORT
FOR POST-CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WENT WITH IT. STILL, EXPECT THE MID-
SECTION OF THE CWA WILL BE SOMEWHAT STABILIZED TOMORROW, HELPING
LIMIT CONVECTION. OUR MID-LEVEL LOW DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW, WHICH HAS WEAKENED INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH,
STILL OVER COAHUILA. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS AROUND THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE EXPECTED TRACK WAS
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. IT IS ALSO CONTINUING TO SLOW DOWN, AND FOR
THIS REASON I CAN'T REALLY PULL POPS OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NM
COMPLETELY, SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ISN'T COMPLETELY GONE.
BUT, THE STABILIZATION AND SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS ISOLATED. THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE OVER SW NEW
MEXICO, INCLUDING THE GILA AND THE BOOTHEEL. SINCE THE GILA DIDN'T
REALLY TAKE IT ON THE NOSE TODAY, THEIR RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
(BEYOND NUISANCE LEVELS) IS DOWN A SMIDGE, WHICH IS JARGON FOR
"JUST ENOUGH TO NOT BE SO INCLINED FOR A FF WATCH". LOCALIZED,
MOSTLY NUISANCE-LEVEL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT ALONG THE
LINES OF A MID-END MONSOON DAY. WITH CONVECTION IN THE GILA AND
BOOTHEEL, OUTFLOW-RAISED DUST ON LORDSBURG PLAYA CAN'T BE RULED
OUT.
STILL EXPECT A SHARP DECREASE IN CONVECTION COVERAGE AS WARM/DRY
AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SIMILAR
EXPECTATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY, AS TEMPERATURES TICK BACK UP ABOVE THE
100 MARK AT ELP. RECYCLED MOISTURE AND NE FLOW SHOULD BRING A
RETURN TO CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW DAYS AGO, IT HAD
LOOKED LIKE NW FLOW WOULD DEVELOP WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
RETREATING WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS, AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WOULD GET TO SKIRT THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, THE TREND HAS NOT
BEEN OUR FRIEND IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS, AND THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HANG IN
THERE. SO, WE MAY GO BACK TO THE PATTERN WE WERE STUCK IN ABOUT A
WEEK AGO, WITH NE FLOW KEEPING THE GILA AND SW NEW MEXICO ACTIVE,
BUT ALLOWING SE ARIZONA AND ADJACENT SONORA TO RUN AWAY WITH
THINGS. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MAY STILL BE IN PLAY, AND WITH NE
STEERING FLOW, NORMALLY THAT COULD BRING STORMS AND OUTFLOW DOWN
INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN TOWARDS EL PASO, INITIATING MORE STORMS
ALONG THE WAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRYING
OUT, WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING LOWER-40S DEWPOINTS. IN THAT CASE,
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE ALL WE CAN MUSTER IN EL PASO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MAIN THREAT FROM TODAY'S
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. AWAY
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW END GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THOSE LOW END WIND GUSTS
WILL DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. CEILINGS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WE WILL MOSTLY LIKELY SEE MID AND
HIGH CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. SKIES WILL BE LESS CLOUDY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW THIS WEEK, THOUGH WE WILL SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, MIN RH'S WILL
STAY AT OR ABOVE 20%, BUT THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THAT WILL DROP OUR AFTERNOON MIN RH'S. BY
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE MIN RH'S
IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TODAY, BUT THEN AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. VENTILATION RATES TODAY AND TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 98 73 100 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 94 66 97 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 95 67 99 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 95 70 99 / 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 72 52 76 / 10 20 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 94 70 98 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 62 88 64 91 / 20 20 10 20
DEMING 68 96 68 100 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 69 95 70 98 / 20 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 97 74 101 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 70 98 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 100 73 103 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 91 68 93 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 72 98 71 100 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 95 70 98 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 95 73 100 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 95 70 99 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 69 98 70 102 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 97 72 100 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 94 68 97 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 85 57 89 / 10 20 0 10
MESCALERO 55 83 56 87 / 10 20 0 10
TIMBERON 54 82 55 85 / 10 10 0 10
WINSTON 59 86 60 90 / 20 20 0 20
HILLSBORO 66 93 67 97 / 20 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 94 68 98 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 86 58 90 / 20 20 10 40
HURLEY 64 90 65 94 / 20 20 10 10
CLIFF 65 95 67 98 / 20 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 64 91 65 94 / 20 20 10 20
FAYWOOD 65 90 66 94 / 20 20 10 10
ANIMAS 69 95 70 98 / 30 10 10 0
HACHITA 68 94 69 97 / 30 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 94 68 96 / 30 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 65 89 65 92 / 30 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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