986
FXUS64 KEPZ 190419
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1019 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FAVORING WESTERN AREAS.
- BETTER AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL, WITH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEING THE WARMEST STRETCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING MID-LEVEL (500MB) LOW OVER FAR SW ARIZONA AND
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST. DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA, WITH LESS LAYERED MOISTURE
OVER THE CWA. THAT SAID, KEPZ SOUNDING SHOWS MOST MOISTURE SITTING
BETWEEN 700MB AND 500MB, WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
MOST PLACES. SO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MODEST INSTABILITY DOWN OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO HAS ALLOWED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA. AS THEY DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN CWA, THEY APPEAR
TO WEAKEN TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-TROPICAL JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AND
APPROACHES NEW MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOWING ONE LEADING
JETLET FROM THE MAIN JET MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. ALSO THE MAIN TROUGH FROM THE ARIZONA LOW NEARS THE AZ/NM
STATE LINE LATER MONDAY AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS OUT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS ADDED LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH PWS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 40S,
TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
COVERAGE MAY LESSEN SOME ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT AND THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NEXT LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES SOCAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 90+ KT SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVES OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE AREA, PERHAPS INCLUDING SOME
MOISTURE FROM TRUDY. MAX PWS OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, APPROACHING 1.2 INCHES, WHICH IS WELL OVER 200% OF
NORMAL. THUS EXPECT GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT COULD VERY WELL LAST MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THURSDAY. MUCAPES OF 300-600 J/KG ALONG
WITH DECENT VEERING PROFILE, SHOW DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS. MAIN THREAT THOUGH COULD BE LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BEGIN TRANSITION DOWN AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS FROM THE RG VALLEY
EAST COULD STILL SEE DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO THE WEST. FROM THERE THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN SOLUTIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BREAK OFF SECONDARY
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, KEEPING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AGAIN BY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE, WITH LITTLE OR NO SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. THUS,
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY, THOUGH ECMWF DOES BEGIN MOVING MOISTURE BACK
IN AFTER THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT080 SCT-BKN200. ISOLATED
BKN060 -SHRA, MAINLY FROM DEMING-ALAMOGORDO SOUTH. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD DISSIPATE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAINLY WEST
OF THE RG VALLEY...ISOLATED OVC050CB -TSRA. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
TO EAST OF THE RG VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 7-10 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z. TAF SITES COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AND WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH RH'S REMAINING ABOVE 25% WITH LIGHT WINDS. COOLER
TEMPS AND HIGHER RH'S FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. VENT RATES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE POOR EAST TO GOOD WEST ON MON AND IMPROVING
TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD ON TUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 80 59 85 / 20 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 79 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 78 54 79 / 20 20 30 10
ALAMOGORDO 54 75 55 80 / 0 20 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 41 61 43 63 / 0 30 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 74 54 78 / 20 60 60 20
SILVER CITY 48 70 50 73 / 20 60 70 20
DEMING 53 77 54 81 / 20 30 40 10
LORDSBURG 54 76 54 79 / 20 50 50 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 79 62 84 / 20 20 20 0
DELL CITY 54 80 56 84 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 87 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 74 55 78 / 20 10 10 0
FABENS 57 84 60 88 / 20 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 56 78 57 82 / 20 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 78 59 82 / 20 20 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 54 76 54 80 / 10 20 30 10
HATCH 54 78 55 82 / 10 30 40 10
COLUMBUS 57 79 58 83 / 20 30 30 0
OROGRANDE 53 76 55 80 / 20 20 20 0
MAYHILL 47 72 48 75 / 0 30 20 20
MESCALERO 45 71 46 74 / 0 50 40 20
TIMBERON 44 68 45 71 / 20 10 10 10
WINSTON 44 67 46 71 / 20 60 60 30
HILLSBORO 53 73 54 77 / 20 50 60 20
SPACEPORT 52 74 54 78 / 10 30 50 10
LAKE ROBERTS 41 70 42 74 / 30 60 70 40
HURLEY 48 73 50 76 / 20 50 60 20
CLIFF 45 77 45 81 / 20 70 70 20
MULE CREEK 40 72 42 76 / 20 60 60 30
FAYWOOD 51 72 52 75 / 30 50 50 20
ANIMAS 55 78 54 81 / 30 50 50 10
HACHITA 53 77 53 80 / 10 40 50 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 79 55 82 / 10 40 50 10
CLOVERDALE 53 75 54 78 / 30 40 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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