121
FXUS64 KEPZ 241148
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
448 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 424 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
- BREEZY TO MODERATELY WINDY AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FEW AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WITH THESE WINDS, BUT WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND; LOWLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES.
- HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE AREAS FAIR, MILD,
AND DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
VERY BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS EVENING. LOTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PASS
THROUGH THIS RIDGE OVER THE CWA THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK, BUT GFS SHOWS
THE MAJORITY OF THIS MOISTURE IS AROUND 400 MB AND ABOVE.
THUS JUST EXPECT INTERMITTENT AREAS OF CIRRUS.
MID-LEVEL WINDS (700-500MB) INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING RESPECTABLE LEE-SIDE LOWS TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OK PANHANDLE. THUS, WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO BREEZY
CATEGORY BOTH DAYS, WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH. WIND TRAJECTORIES BOTH DAYS ARE A BIT NORTH OF DUE WEST, SO
BLOWING DUST THAT FORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY CLOSE TO THE INTL BORDER.
THIS WILL ALSO ADVECT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY NEAR DAILY RECORD LEVEL, SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS VERY WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SHOWING A WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT MOVING IN
THURSDAY. LATEST RUNS SHOW FRONT HALTING UP NEAR OUR FAR EASTERN
TERRAIN. NO DOUBT THE UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP THE COOL AIRMASS QUITE
SHALLOW. THUS, TEMPS THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR
RECORD LEVELS. AT EL PASO, THE ALL-TIME FEBRUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE IS
86 DEGREES, AND THIS MAY BE THREATENED FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
SOME SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, AS BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW PACIFIC TROUGH FINALLY COMING ACROSS FOR SOME COOLING
AND CHANCE OF RAIN. LOTS OF TIME THOUGH FOR THE MODELS TO CHANGE
THEIR MINDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 424 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING SCT-BKN250 FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS
INCREASING AFTER 18Z TO WEST 10-15G25 KNOTS. FEW AREAS OF BLDU
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLAND DESERT AREAS. HAZY AFTERNOON SKIES
POSSIBLE IN LOFTED DUST, WITH LOCAL AREAS OF 3-5SM VSBY, BUT
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 424 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., AND THAT
WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLE WARMING TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR
NORTH AND KICK UP THE WINDS, WITH HIGH-END BREEZY AND LOW-END WINDY
CONDITIONS. NOT QUITE RED FLAG CONDITIONS, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. THE
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO DEEPEN MIXING AND INCREASE
TRANSPORT, FOR VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN PARKED OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK, AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY, WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY
AVERAGES, AND NEAR RECORDS. IN ADDITION, WE WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF VERY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH LOW AND VERY LOW MINIMUM
RH, AND POOR RECOVERIES. THIS WILL DEFINITELY ACCELERATE DRYING
OF FUELS, BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY ADDITIONAL WIND EVENTS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD AND EXCELLENT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY,
DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS AND STRONGER WINDS. THURSDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WINDS SLACKEN, AND VENTILATION WILL BE
REDUCED BACK TO MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 83 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 78 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 79 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 79 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 57 40 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 71 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 77 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 42 82 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 75 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 50 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 35 81 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 39 85 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 37 79 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 46 72 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 40 68 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 46 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 35 81 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 72 30 75 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 42 74 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 26 79 28 81 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 23 74 24 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 47 75 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 45 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 78 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 80 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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