115
FXUS64 KEPZ 130509
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1109 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
- SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY DUE TO POOR
INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING, DESPITE
INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS. TYPICAL MID-AUGUST
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
PERHAPS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST IS IN THE NEXT
3 TO 6 HOURS. MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES, BUT WITH VERY WEAK FORCING.
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED THROUGH EPZ AROUND 9:30 PM,
SPARKING A HIGHLY LOCALIZED SHOWER THAT DROPPED 0.08 INCHES IN
JUST A FEW MINUTES. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
CROPPING UP OVER WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY, AND EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS IN OTERO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
SEVERAL CAMS, INCLUDING THE 00Z HRRR AND MOST RRFS MEMBERS, HAVE
BEEN INDICATING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN FAR WEST
TEXAS. SOME NEARER TO ELP, OTHERS IN WESTERN HUDSPETH, WITH SOME
VARIABILITY IN TIMING. A FEW OF THE HRRR RUNS PRIOR TO 00Z GAVE UP
ON THIS IDEA. AND NONE OF THE 00Z CAMS RUNS REALLY MATCH REALITY,
MOST RUNNING TOO HOT WITH PRECIP ON HUDSPETH, WHILE SHOWING IT
EXTENDING WELL SOUTH INTO CHIHUAHUA. THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF AHUMADA IS NOT WELL HANDLED AT ALL.
THAT WEAK LITTLE BOUNDARY THAT HELPED SPARK OUR LOCAL SHOWER LOOKS
TO HAVE PUSHED OUT TOWARDS LOOP-375 ON THE EAST SIDE, BUT IT'S TOO
SHALLOW TO SHOW UP ON HDX, AND MOSTLY BLOCKED NOW BY THE FRANKLINS
ON EPZ. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FLARE
UP A BIT IN HUDSPETH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WHETHER THAT'S
ENOUGH TO PUSH STORMS WEST TOWARDS EL PASO LIKE A FEW RRFS MEMBERS
SUGGEST IS MOSTLY A COIN-FLIP, BUT I'M LEANING TOWARDS PRECIP
STAYING WEST OF TOWN, WITH 30-POPS REACHING AS FAR WEST AS THE
AIRPORT. IF WE GET ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH, IT'LL
BE AT LEAST 3-4 HOURS FROM NOW, AND IT'S HARD TO PIN HOPES ON
THAT.
GOING FORWARD, THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK TO REMAIN COOLER AND
MOISTER, BUT THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MEDIOCRE
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MOSTLY FOCUSED ON THE
MOUNTAINS. LATER FRIDAY SEEMS LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE SAY AS WEAK
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED DISTURBANCES ROLL UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
WHILE PWAT VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES. THE UPPER-MOST
LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE START TO SHOW DIFFLUENT FLOW, BUT MOSTLY
FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE FRIDAY AS WELL, AHEAD OF AN
APPARENT LATE-SEASON INVERTED TROUGH ROLLING INTO COAHUILA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
NEED TO WATCH ELP VERY CAREFULLY TONIGHT AS SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL FLARE UP AFTER 06Z. SO FAR, THESE
MODELS ARE NOT VERIFYING WELL, AND THE PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE
GREATEST OVER WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY. OUTFLOW MAY TRY TO SNEAK IN
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 09Z, AND THAT'LL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RENEGADE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITIES STILL LOOK TO BE
UNDER 30 PERCENT, SO THE TAFS ARE THUNDER-FREE AT ELP.
OVERALL CHANCES DON'T LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY,
EITHER, OUTSIDE OF TCS. WE HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE, BUT POOR
INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF FORCING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
SCATTERED (40-60%) THUNDERSTORMS FOR GILA NF, ISOLATED (20-40%)
FOR LINCOLN NF TODAY. WETTER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE MIN RH TO
30-40%. SW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH LEADING TO GOOD VENT RATES.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS.
NEW RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
BUT MOSTLY LIKELY 0.50-1.00" OVER LOCAL FORESTS. PREVAILING SW
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY SHIFTING TO THE SE OVER THE
WEEKEND. DRIER WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 95 73 97 / 30 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 91 66 92 / 30 10 40 40
LAS CRUCES 67 93 67 95 / 20 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 69 95 / 30 10 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 52 71 51 72 / 30 10 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 92 68 94 / 30 30 20 20
SILVER CITY 59 83 59 86 / 40 30 20 20
DEMING 66 92 65 95 / 20 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 66 88 66 91 / 30 20 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 94 74 96 / 20 10 10 10
DELL CITY 71 96 71 97 / 20 10 10 30
FORT HANCOCK 74 98 74 99 / 40 10 50 50
LOMA LINDA 67 87 67 90 / 50 20 10 30
FABENS 72 95 72 97 / 50 20 20 30
SANTA TERESA 71 92 71 94 / 20 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 93 72 95 / 20 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 68 93 68 95 / 20 10 10 10
HATCH 68 96 68 98 / 20 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 71 93 71 95 / 20 10 10 20
OROGRANDE 68 92 68 94 / 40 0 10 20
MAYHILL 59 84 57 85 / 30 10 10 40
MESCALERO 56 81 56 83 / 20 10 10 30
TIMBERON 54 80 54 82 / 40 10 10 30
WINSTON 56 82 56 84 / 40 60 20 50
HILLSBORO 63 91 63 92 / 20 40 20 20
SPACEPORT 66 93 66 94 / 30 20 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 55 82 54 85 / 50 40 20 40
HURLEY 61 86 60 89 / 30 20 10 20
CLIFF 64 88 62 92 / 50 30 20 20
MULE CREEK 60 83 60 87 / 60 40 10 20
FAYWOOD 63 87 63 89 / 20 2 - HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FOCUSED OVER MOUNTAIN ZONES.
0 20 20 ANIMAS 66 87 65 90 / 30 30 20 20 HACHITA 66 88 65 91 / 20
20 20 10 ANTELOPE WELLS 65 88 64 90 / 20 20 20 30 CLOVERDALE 61
81 61 84 / 30 30 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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