444
FXUS64 KEPZ 071743
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1043 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2024
- COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY; SIGNIFICANT WARMUP SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
THEN BACK TO COOL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY
WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- STRONG UPPER LOW DOES BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. WEDNESDAY
MORNING LOWS TO SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2024
WV IMAGERY SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL JET AND LAYERED MOISTURE WELL EAST
OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER SE ARIZONA CONTINUES TO
CHURN SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST; ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW ACROSS THE CWA.
THUS, ALTHOUGH MODELS, HI-RES AND HEMISPHERIC, HAVE NOT SHINED
WITH QPF ALLOCATION (BEING KIND HERE), THEY DO CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE A SHOWER OUT BUT KEPT POPS BELOW 15%. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT (MOUNTAIN SNOW OR LOWLAND RAIN). MODELS DO SHOW LOW TOP
CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
MODELS QUITE SIMILAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SWEEPING AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WELL OUT EAST OF AREA AND BRINGING THE CWA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
AT THE BOTTOM OF THE NEXT PACIFIC/CANADIAN TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL INDUCE BREEZY WEST WINDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALLOWING A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A STRONG PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THOUGH SYSTEM SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY, THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY THE SACS, WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, IT WILL BRING A CHILLY
AIRMASS AND BRISK WINDS WITH IT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY, WITH NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELED
AREAS SUCH AS THE SIERRA LAKES REGION AND THE TULAROSA BASIN COULD
SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WIND CHILLS TUESDAY
MORNING AS THEY MAY APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS
SETTLE DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT, MEANING WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS
COULD BE SOME OF THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON.
ZONAL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP AND TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. GFS
DOES DEVIATE FROM OTHER MODELS FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A SMALL
PACIFIC LOW ACROSS THE AREA AND HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS. FOR NOW
WILL TREAT THIS AS AN OUTLIER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2024
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR CRITERIA EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AROUND 040-050. CLOUDS WILL
MOST STRUGGLE TO LIFT AT KELP. LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB
7KTS, SHIFTING W-SW TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 313 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2024
HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT HUMIDITY STILL ABLE TO AVOID CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
VERY DRY AIR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MOVES IN, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS TUESDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE ALLEVIATED AS QUICK OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES LEAD TO SHORT
DURATIONS OF THE LOW HUMIDITY.
MIN RHS: LOWLANDS 40-55% TODAY DIMINISHING TO 15-25% BY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOUNTAINS 45-60% TODAY DIMINISHING TO 20-30%
MONDAY AND 12-25% BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VENT RATES POOR
TODAY, FAIR SUNDAY, GOOD-VERY GOOD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 40 66 42 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 36 62 36 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 56 33 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 33 61 33 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 26 45 27 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 33 59 35 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 57 32 66 34 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 57 30 63 32 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 40 65 43 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 32 65 36 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 59 34 67 35 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 37 57 37 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 56 35 66 38 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 35 64 38 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 41 65 40 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 56 30 64 30 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 59 31 66 31 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 35 66 37 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 54 32 62 32 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 32 59 36 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 29 55 30 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 27 54 28 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 53 24 62 26 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 31 66 34 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 57 28 63 29 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 26 60 25 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 54 30 62 32 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 22 64 20 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 57 19 62 19 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 54 33 62 36 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 58 31 67 30 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 30 64 30 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 32 67 33 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 34 60 35 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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