447
FXUS64 KEPZ 240531
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1031 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET WILL SEE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
- UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH UP TO 0.20" OF ICE IS POSSIBLE FOR
HUDSPETH COUNTY WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK (LOW TO MODERATE) FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE TULAROSA AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS
SUNDAY MORNING, INCLUDING EL PASO. THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW AND ICE TOTALS.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR EASTERN AREAS AND AS COLD AS 15 BELOW FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT IS SET TO AFFECT A LARGE CHUNK OF THE
COUNTRY IS UNDERWAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE UL LOW STILL OFF THE
BAJA COAST, PUSHING ANOMALOUSLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. MULTIPLE
SMALL SCALE IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE LOW ARE AIDING IN PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING VIA MULTIPLE WAVES. EXPECT ON AND
OFF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH MORE SUSTAINED PRECIP
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED AS AN IMPULSE
NOW OVER SOUTHERN ID MERGES WITH OUR BAJA LOW AND EXITS INTO THE
PLAINS BY MID-DAY SUNDAY, TAKING ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT.
WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RECEIVE A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE BRINGS 0.75-1.00"+ OF
ADDITIONAL LIQUID TO AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
TRENDING DOWN TO ABOUT 0.60" FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE AZ BORDER AND
THE GILA. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS FOR ANYWHERE THAT
SEES AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION
REMAINS, "HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION?"
WELL, THAT HAS CHANGED. TRUE TO FORM FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS DONE A
MISERABLE JOB WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC AIR. ARCTIC AIR
HAS ALREADY SPILLED INTO LINCOLN COUNTY WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 30 DEGREES. SNOW WAS FALLING IN CLOUDCROFT. IT'S A BIT
DIFFICULT TO SAY THE PRECIP TYPE IN MAYHILL, BUT THE SKY CAMERAS
THERE SHOW A LAYER OF ICE ON THEM. MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS
COLDER TREND SHOWING MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS, I DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES
OF SNOW PLUS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST SLOPE AREAS TOWARD CHAVES AND LINCOLN
COUNTY. I ALSO MOVED THE START TIME BACK TO 9PM, WHICH MEANS IT IS
VALID AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY AS
WELL SINCE THE NBM HAS A TIME LAG, AND WHAT'S IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ON WEATHER.GOV MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM. NEVERTHELESS, THERE
MAY BE A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES WEST
ONCE AND FOR GOOD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
INTO THE LOWLANDS, TRENDS ARE COLDER AND THEREFORE SNOWIER AND
ICIER. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SUB-FREEZING AIR ENTRENCHING ITSELF
INTO PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR SATURDAY, MEANING A LONGER
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN. THE QUICKER PUSH TO THE WEST AND COLDER
AIR BEHIND IT HAS RAMPED UP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN ALL DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS ICE ACCUMULATIONS. MOST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS SNOW WELL INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING ALONG THE FRANKLINS BEFORE COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE GIVING THESE AREAS 1 TO
3 INCHES FOR THE TULAROSA BASIN AND UP TO AN INCH ON THE RIO
GRANDE SIDE, INCLUDING CENTRAL AND EAST EL PASO, ALONG WITH SOME
ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. IT IS FOOLISH TO CHASE MODELS
GIVEN THE ABRUPT REVERSAL IN TRENDS, SO I DID NOT CHANGE ANY
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE LOWLANDS EXCEPT TO UP THE WORDING
ON THE EXISTING ADVISORY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH, MORE WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES OR UPGRADES MAY BE NEEDED. KEEP CHECKING BACK
WITH THE FORECAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW AND ICE, IT WILL BE COLD. OUR EASTERN
AREAS WILL SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
FACTORING IN WIND, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 5 IN
HUDSPETH COUNTY AND 15 BELOW ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
THOSE VALUES ARE NEAR EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA. AS SUCH, I
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS FOR MUCH OF HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY MORNING'S LOW IT WILL DEPEND
ON FAR WEST AND HOW STRONG THE COLD FRONT PUSHES. TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY COLD AS WELL, SO MORE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
FOLLOWING OUR WINTER STORM, THE REST OF THE WEEK, MONDAY ONWARD,
WILL SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY RECOVER THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
FINALLY, BY FRIDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COMPACT LOW THAT
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND MAYBE SOME WIND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VIS
AND CIGS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, DROPPING
BELOW 010 AND 4SM AT TIMES. THUS, EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID; HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR FZRA/SN AT KELP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS NOT
MENTIONED IN THE TAF, BUT MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
WE WILL SEE AN EXTENDED TIME OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH TODAY ABOVE
9,000 FEET, BUT LOWER SOME TO GIVE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AREA
MOUNTAINS SOME SNOW. MIN RH'S THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
30%. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT, OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH
THE ONE EXCEPTION ON SUNDAY WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY WINDS.
ON SUNDAY WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY EAST WINDS FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE AND BREEZY WEST WINDS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
RIVER. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MIN RH'S RUN AT OR ABOVE 20% THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES TODAY WILL BE POOR AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
BETTER ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 48 31 44 / 90 100 100 80
SIERRA BLANCA 37 40 21 32 / 90 100 100 90
LAS CRUCES 41 48 30 44 / 90 90 90 70
ALAMOGORDO 40 48 23 39 / 100 100 100 80
CLOUDCROFT 29 30 13 23 / 100 100 100 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 53 27 44 / 90 80 80 50
SILVER CITY 38 47 29 45 / 100 70 80 50
DEMING 42 53 35 52 / 90 80 80 60
LORDSBURG 42 52 34 51 / 90 70 80 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 49 33 43 / 90 100 100 80
DELL CITY 33 37 17 31 / 80 100 90 80
FORT HANCOCK 43 51 28 42 / 80 100 100 90
LOMA LINDA 38 39 21 33 / 90 100 100 90
FABENS 44 49 29 42 / 90 100 100 90
SANTA TERESA 45 48 33 44 / 90 100 100 80
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 48 29 43 / 100 100 90 80
JORNADA RANGE 42 51 29 44 / 90 90 90 70
HATCH 42 55 31 49 / 90 70 80 60
COLUMBUS 46 54 40 53 / 90 90 90 70
OROGRANDE 40 43 23 38 / 90 100 100 80
MAYHILL 27 37 8 34 / 90 100 100 80
MESCALERO 31 41 13 33 / 100 100 100 80
TIMBERON 29 36 13 29 / 100 100 100 80
WINSTON 30 48 20 41 / 90 90 80 50
HILLSBORO 39 53 27 46 / 90 70 80 50
SPACEPORT 40 52 24 44 / 90 80 80 60
LAKE ROBERTS 35 46 24 44 / 90 80 80 50
HURLEY 38 51 29 48 / 90 70 70 50
CLIFF 39 53 28 52 / 90 80 80 40
MULE CREEK 38 48 26 47 / 90 80 80 30
FAYWOOD 41 49 32 47 / 90 80 70 60
ANIMAS 44 53 37 53 / 90 90 90 40
HACHITA 43 53 36 52 / 80 80 90 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 42 53 38 54 / 70 90 100 60
CLOVERDALE 44 47 37 48 / 80 90 90 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR OTERO MESA.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO
MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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