470
FXUS64 KEPZ 111127
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
527 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
- BREEZY EAST WINDS TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA.
- A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE 90S WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEHIND THE OUTFLOW-ENHANCED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WEST MTN
SLOPES WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO 40 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT,
SUBSIDING MON AM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. THE BREEZY WINDS
SHIFT WEST DURING THE AM TOWARDS AZ. WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT, LOW STRATUS/FOG LOOKS
TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AM IN THE SACS, MIXING OUT DURING THE
DAY. OTHER THAN SCATTERED CU OVER AREA MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON,
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON MON.
AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER NM INTO WED, KEEPING RAIN/STORM CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES COULD SHOOT
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUR WAY IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH
POSSIBLE DUST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST EACH AFTERNOON IF THE SUBSIDENCE CAPPING
CAN BE OVERCOME.
THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN WED/THU AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE
WEST COAST. SOME MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTHWARD BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THU AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, BRINGING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOST LIKELY, THE MAIN LOW PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH THU/FRI WITH SOME BREEZINESS AND DRY WEATHER FOR US. A LESS
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE LOW TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH
STRONGER WEST WINDS TO END THE WORKWEEK. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT IS
MODELED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A DRYLINE TRIES TO DEVELOP TO THE E.
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR MON DUE TO MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
TONIGHT'S FRONT. WARMEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST TUE/WED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE WITH LOWLAND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S. KELP MAY APPROACH 100
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON WED. WE REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKC.
LINGERING EASTERLY BREEZINESS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL CALM AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
GENERALLY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES (20FT WINDS 5-10 MPH). MIN RHS
WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL TODAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS (15-20%)
AND 25-30% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
STARTING TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS REMAINING 5-10 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL MIN RHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS (9-11%)
AND NEAR CRITICAL IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS (15-20%) BOTH DAYS.
SLIGHT CHANCES OF VIRGA SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND MAYBE INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20 FT WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THAT
AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH CRITICAL LOWLAND RHS (7-12%) AND NEAR
CRITICAL RHS IN THE MOUNTAINS (17-20%). BY FRIDAY, MIN RHS DROP EVEN
FURTHER TO 5-8% IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS AND CRITICAL MOUNTAIN RHS (12-
15%). 20 FT WINDS DON'T LOOK TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BUT LOOKS
BREEZY RIGHT NOW WITH 20 FT WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH THAT
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 95 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 89 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 55 92 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 91 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 71 50 72 / 0 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 92 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 56 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 56 95 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 93 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 94 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 93 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 97 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 57 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 60 96 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 93 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 56 92 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 57 95 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 90 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 84 55 84 / 0 10 0 0
MESCALERO 49 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 45 78 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 47 86 51 84 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 59 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 55 91 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 50 88 53 86 / 0 10 0 10
HURLEY 53 90 57 89 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 52 94 54 91 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 52 90 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 55 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 57 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 92 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 59 88 61 85 / 0 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page