340
FXUS64 KEPZ 071248
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
648 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- DRIER AND HOTTER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MANY LOWLAND AREAS
SEEING THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON.
- MOISTURE WILL OCCASIONALLY SEEP IN FROM THE EAST, GIVING THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
UPPER LOW DRIVING OUR WEATHER HAS NOW MOVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, TO BE REPLACED SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA HAS DIMINISHED AS DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE
30S EAST AND 20S WEST. LIMITED CONVECTION WAS ABLE TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT DID NOT SURVIVE MOVING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE LOWLANDS. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY, KEEPING MOST/ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT OF OUR AREA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BATTLE TAKES PLACE BETWEEN THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US AGAINST THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE GOA AND TEXAS. THE HIGH BASICALLY
WINS OUT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH RIDES UP OVER IT BY WEDNESDAY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
DOES INCREASE BY TUESDAY, AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST (DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S EAST), A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP OVER THE SACS AND EASTERN HUDSPETH
TUESDAY. THE ACTION OF THE TROUGH RIDING UP OVER THE HIGH TURNS OUT
WINDS WEST WEDNESDAY AND SCOURS OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE. THIS ALSO
ALLOWS OUR HEAT TO RETURN AND MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE THEIR
FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OF THE SEASON DURING THIS STRETCH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO FOR CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWLANDS REMAINING
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HAVING SAID THAT, THE HIGH WILL
NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
DRIFT IN AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHORT WAVES WITH THE PACIFIC
LOW MAY IMPINGE INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ADDING TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS (SURPRISINGLY), BUT SATURDAY COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER OTHER AREAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT, 10-15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON, FAVORING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
ONE EXCEPTION IS A PERIOD OF NNW FLOW AT ELP THIS MORNING,
EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 646 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. A SERIES OF VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO PRODUCE HIGHLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AT TIMES, BUT THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE VIRGA AND CUMULUS BUILD-UPS. THERE'S A BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS LATE
TUESDAY, AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SHIFT
IN THE WEATHER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 97 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 64 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 98 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 96 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 58 90 60 91 / 0 10 0 0
DEMING 63 101 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 63 96 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 62 100 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 103 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 65 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 65 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 64 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 65 101 68 102 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 69 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 63 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 88 56 87 / 0 10 0 20
MESCALERO 53 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 50 83 52 83 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 54 87 56 88 / 0 10 0 10
HILLSBORO 64 94 67 96 / 0 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 90 50 91 / 0 10 0 0
HURLEY 59 93 61 95 / 0 10 0 0
CLIFF 51 96 51 99 / 0 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 46 91 46 93 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 61 92 64 94 / 0 10 0 0
ANIMAS 62 96 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 62 97 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 62 96 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 90 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25
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