980
FXUS64 KEPZ 181753
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1153 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FAVORING WESTERN AREAS.
- BETTER AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. BOTH WILL BE
BRINGING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. CURRENTLY THERE IS A
WEAKENING UPPER LOW THAT IS NEAR SAN DIEGO AND WILL BE SLOWLY
LIFTING NE WITH SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THESE LITTLE WAVES WILL BRING ON AND OFF SHOWERS WITH A
THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF A KALM-KELP
LINE. NOTHING MORE THAN LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE. NBM SEEMED TO
UNDER DO THE POPS EARLY ON AND WANTED AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THESE AREAS. LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE RISE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE MAINLY IN THE 50S, ALTHOUGH A FEW 40S POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
FOR TUE-WED, WE WILL BE MORE IN A TRANSITIONING PERIOD WITH FIRST
SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BUT A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
DOWN THE CA COAST. BESIDES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OUT WEST, DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH HIGHS CONTINUING TO WARM. UPPER FLOW TURNS
SLIGHTLY MORE S THAN SW AND TAPS BETTER MOISTURE FROM SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF CA. AS WE GO INTO THU THIS MOISTURE WILL MEET BETTER
LIFT OVER THE BORDERLAND AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND WE WILL SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S. DO NOT SEE
ANY MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT070-090 SCT-BKN120-150 TO START WITH INCREASING SCT-
BKN060-080 BKN120-150 AFTER 00Z AND CONTINUING TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING WITH A BETTER(30%) CHANCE AROUND KDMN. A THUNDERSTORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THESE CELLS BESIDES SOME BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST LATER IN THE
WEEK AND WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH RH'S REMAINING ABOVE 25% WITH LIGHT WINDS. COOLER
TEMPS AND HIGHER RH'S FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. VENT RATES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE POOR EAST TO GOOD WEST ON MON AND
IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD ON TUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 81 59 85 / 20 20 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 79 55 82 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 54 75 55 79 / 20 20 50 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 76 56 80 / 0 20 30 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 58 43 60 / 0 40 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 75 55 78 / 10 40 50 10
SILVER CITY 51 70 52 72 / 30 60 70 40
DEMING 53 77 55 81 / 20 30 40 0
LORDSBURG 54 76 56 79 / 30 60 50 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 80 60 84 / 20 20 30 0
DELL CITY 54 80 56 84 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 87 61 89 / 10 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 53 75 55 78 / 10 20 10 0
FABENS 57 85 60 87 / 20 10 20 0
SANTA TERESA 56 78 58 82 / 20 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 78 60 82 / 20 20 40 0
JORNADA RANGE 51 76 55 80 / 10 20 40 0
HATCH 54 79 56 82 / 20 30 50 0
COLUMBUS 57 79 58 83 / 20 30 30 0
OROGRANDE 53 76 55 80 / 10 20 30 0
MAYHILL 47 71 47 73 / 0 40 20 30
MESCALERO 45 69 47 72 / 0 40 30 20
TIMBERON 44 66 46 69 / 0 20 20 10
WINSTON 44 68 47 70 / 20 60 50 40
HILLSBORO 53 75 55 77 / 20 50 60 20
SPACEPORT 52 75 54 78 / 10 30 50 10
LAKE ROBERTS 45 70 47 72 / 30 60 80 50
HURLEY 48 73 50 75 / 30 50 60 20
CLIFF 53 75 54 77 / 30 70 70 40
MULE CREEK 48 73 53 75 / 20 60 70 40
FAYWOOD 51 72 54 75 / 30 40 50 20
ANIMAS 55 76 56 81 / 30 60 50 20
HACHITA 53 77 55 80 / 30 40 40 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 79 56 82 / 40 50 40 10
CLOVERDALE 53 75 54 77 / 30 50 40 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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