000
FXUS64 KEPZ 081305
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
705 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- A DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REDUCE STORM CHANCES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN, BUT MOST LOWLAND AREAS WILL BE DRY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST, WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
TULAROSA BASIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
IT'S BEEN AN ACTIVE WEEK OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. UPPER HIGH FIXED OVER THE COLORADO RIVER PROMOTED NORTH
FLOW, PUSHING STORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWN INTO THE LOWLANDS
QUICKLY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADDED TO STORM COVERAGE AND FLOOD
RISK. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT PATTERN WILL CHANGE THIS
WEEKEND, PUMPING THE BREAKS ON RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
UPPER HIGH HAS MADE A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
PAST FEW DAYS, AND WILL LINGER THERE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE PRIMARY PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FURTHER WEST AGAIN TOWARD ARIZONA. DRIER FETCH OF AIR MOVING UP
THE RIO GRANDE AT LOWER LEVELS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A DRYING TREND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.0" TODAY WILL FALL TO 0.8-0.9"
BY SUNDAY. WHILE THIS DOESN'T SEEM LIKE MUCH, IT WILL GREATLY
REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON INITIATION OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY ELIMINATE OUTFLOW FORCING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED (5-10% COVERAGE)
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE GILA AND WESTERN NM
MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH SCATTERED (20-40% COVERAGE) STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. ELSEWHERE, CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARD 100-104 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND TULAROSA BASIN.
UPPER HIGH MOVES EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, FINALLY
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC MONSOON PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXPAND AREA WIDE AGAIN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 1.2-1.4" WILL POSE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
SHARPLY LOWER, AND MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAR FROM
TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 637 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A DRYING TREND THIS WEEKEND WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ISOLATED, AND MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BY MONDAY, MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO 12 TO 15% RANGE
IN THE LOWLANDS, AND 25 TO 35% IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK TO IMPROVE, AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY, AS A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS A STEADIER
SUPPLY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN PARKED EITHER RIGHT OVER AZ/NM, OR THE FOUR CORNERS,
DELIVERING EITHER TOO MUCH DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT, OR THE
OCCASIONAL BRIEF BOUT OF RECYCLED MOISTURE, LOOKS TO FINALLY
SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, BRINGING US SOUTHERLY FLOW UP
FROM MEXICO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 95 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 97 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 97 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 76 53 76 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 65 93 64 93 / 0 20 10 30
DEMING 69 99 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 71 99 70 99 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 70 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 72 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 98 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 98 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 70 101 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 88 58 89 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 56 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 20
TIMBERON 54 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 61 91 61 92 / 0 10 10 30
HILLSBORO 68 98 68 99 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 69 98 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 92 58 92 / 0 40 20 60
HURLEY 66 95 65 96 / 0 10 0 20
CLIFF 67 99 66 100 / 10 20 20 40
MULE CREEK 66 95 64 95 / 10 20 30 40
FAYWOOD 68 94 67 96 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 69 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 65 93 65 92 / 0 0 0 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99-GUEST
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