823
FXUS64 KEPZ 221953
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
153 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN.
- NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DUE IN MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALIZED DUST POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY; OTHERWISE
COOLING DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WE'VE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY TO GENERATE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. WEST TEXAS
MESONET STATION CHECKED IN WITH A 41 DEWPOINT AT SIERRA BLANCA,
THE SAME AT VAN HORN. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BEFORE
ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
DRIER SW FLOW WILL COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
EVENING, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH MID-90S
COMMON IN THE LOWLANDS BY SUNDAY, AS A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
A NEGATIVELY-TILED UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE A SWING AT NEW MEXICO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ORIENTATION USUALLY ENHANCES UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AND THAT'S LOOKS TO BE THE CASE ON
MONDAY AS WELL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH AS FAR WEST AS
THE RIO GRANDE BY MONDAY MORNING, AND WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
MIX-OUT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE FURTHER WEST YOU ARE, THE DRIER
THEY'LL BE, WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST. FARTHER EAST, MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINALLY BETTER,
WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AS A RESULT. CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AS
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT, AND LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PREVAILING. THE OCCASIONAL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
DRIER AIR WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS CONTINUING WHILE TEMPERATURES TICK SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, MOSTLY
DUE TO MINRH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
LOWLANDS, AND THE UPPER-10S ABOVE 7500 FEET.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND IN THE LOWLANDS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS.
DRY CONDITIONS, WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY, WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 90 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 85 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 57 87 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 88 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 47 66 49 69 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 87 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 58 90 57 94 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 86 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 88 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 59 92 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 62 91 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 87 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 89 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 91 56 94 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 90 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 86 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 77 47 81 / 0 10 0 10
MESCALERO 47 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 42 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 48 79 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 86 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 87 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 82 38 85 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 87 48 91 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 83 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 83 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 86 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 58 86 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 85 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 79 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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