830
FXUS64 KEPZ 182339
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
539 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY. RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
- LIGHTER WINDS, BUT STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS, TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO EAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES EJECTING OUT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS SAME PERIOD, ALLOWING BREEZY AFTERNOONS EACH
DAY. IN THE SHORT TERM, ONE SHORT-WAVE HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH THE
CWA AND NOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WAVE IS JUST THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
JUST INTO FAR NE NEW MEXICO, WITH DRY-LINE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN TO THE BIG BEND. BOTH FRONTS WILL
RETREAT NORTH/EAST TODAY BUT WILL BE PLAYERS LATER IN THE WEEK.
TODAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. SOME
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER WEST
TEXAS BUT POSSIBLY LOCAL AREAS NEAR DEMING AND LORDSBURG ALSO.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT SHORT-WAVE DEEPENS SOME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN BUT MAKES VERY LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD. SECOND
IMPULSE DIVES FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOCAL, EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A
WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTTOM
LINE...MODERATE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT SURFACE PATTERN
IS DISRUPTED BY BACK DOOR COOL FRONT CONTINUING TO LURK OVER NE
NEW MEXICO. THUS LEE-SIDE LOW (WEAK) DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND DOES NOT ALLOW STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP LIKE
MORE TYPICAL NE NEW MEXICO SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL
REMAIN BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG-WAVE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS MOVING
EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS BUILDING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS INITIALLY PUSHES THE BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN TO THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT. DRY-LINE ALSO
DRIFTS WEST BUT REMAINS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS DO RISE INTO THE 40S, MAINLY EAST OF THE RG
VALLEY. POPS START OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MODEST INSTABILITY SATURDAY, BUT INCREASES ON SUNDAY. DECENT
MUCAPE VALUES AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD ALLOW SOME STRONG
STORMS TO DEVELOP.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS
HERE AND THERE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT WILL BE ON THE DOWNTREND AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT
BREEZES OVERNIGHT AOB 10KT WITH LOW END BREEZINESS EXPECTED BY 18Z
TOMORROW. WE'LL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TOMORROW BUT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
TODAY CONTINUES IN CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AS GUSTY WINDS, WHICH
REALLY LASTED ALL NIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS, INCREASES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WIND CONDITIONS SLACKEN A BIT,
BUT EACH AFTERNOON WILL STILL BECOME BREEZY. FIRE CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS. WINDS OVER THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIGHTEN UP A BIT AFTER TODAY, AND WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE MODEST INCREASES IN DEWPOINT/HUMIDITY, AND COULD LEAD TO A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THIS UPTICK IN MOISTURE, ERCS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 8-13% THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 12-18% SAT/SUN.
GILA/BLACK RANGE 8-15% THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 12-20% SAT/SUN.
SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MOUNTAINS 10-18% THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 20-30%
SAT/SUN. VENT RATES EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 54 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 56 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 43 67 41 65 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 92 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 92 54 88 / 0 0 0 20
FORT HANCOCK 59 97 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 85 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 59 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 56 90 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 91 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 93 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 47 77 45 76 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 45 74 44 73 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 42 80 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 87 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 84 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 82 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 83 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 50 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 89 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 89 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 82 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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