541
FXUS64 KEPZ 200435
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1035 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- DRY, SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID MAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CAN BE SEEN VIA MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST, VERY
LITTLE IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE FELT LOCALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY THING WORTH MENTIONING IS THAT WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW-END BREEZY CATEGORY WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25-30
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES,
THE WEAK MOISTURE BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL EBB AND FLOW OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY EAST
OF THE HWY54 CORRIDOR. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS DP TEMPS IN THE 40-50
DEGREES RANGE ACROSS FAR EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY, HUDSPETH COUNTY,
AND SACRAMENTO MTN EAST SLOPES. BUT BY THE AFTERNOON, THE DRY
WESTERLIES WILL KICK INTO GEAR AND PUSH SAID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
TO THE EAST. THERE ARE MENTIONABLE POPS (15%) IN THE GRIDS ACROSS
FAR EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WHERE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
ON THURSDAY, THE DRY WESTERLIES WIN OUT AGAIN AS THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MAKE ANOTHER WESTWARD PUSH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECTED LOW-END BREEZY WINDS AND NEAR SEASONAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY, AN EXTENSION, OR WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND NORTHERN
SONORA. AS IT DOES SO, SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN, EXPECTED FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL FOR THE LATER
PART OF MAY.
..MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME WEAK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN IT'S WAKE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. FOR MONDAY, MEMORIAL DAY, THE SLIGHTEST BIT
OF MOISTURE WILL WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE AREA WITH MEAGER BUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PROFILES. AS OF NOW, NBM GUIDANCE AND IT'S
RESPECTED GLOBAL MODELS PAINT SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEING 5-6 DAYS OUT,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SCT-BKN AT
25 KFT. WINDS LIGHT AT 3-8 KNOTS AND VRB THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. BY 18Z, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND
MIN RH 8 TO 12%. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AREA WIDE WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. TYPICAL MID MAY TEMPERATURES. SIMILAR WEATHER ON THURSDAY,
THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL CUMULUS GROWTH OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN.
MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND, PRIMARILY OVER LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST. THIS COULD LEAD
TO ERRATIC AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS SATURDAY/SUNDAY THERE.
CURRENT FUEL STATUS SHOWS ERCS RISING PAST THE 90TH PERCENTILE
THIS WEEK, DUE IN PART TO SUSTAINED DRY, BREEZY WEATHER. FOREST
CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE STARTS. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN IN NEW LIGHTNING STARTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 86 56 83 / 0 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 54 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 65 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 88 56 88 / 0 20 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 93 62 91 / 0 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 58 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 60 92 61 89 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 57 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 55 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 77 48 76 / 0 10 10 10
MESCALERO 47 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 45 73 44 72 / 0 10 10 0
WINSTON 47 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 86 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 79 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 82 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 82 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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