304
FXUS64 KEPZ 210452
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
952 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 902 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO WEATHER IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS ABOUT
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- INCREASING CLOUDS MIDWEEK WITH LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE GILA REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 902 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK AS THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER FAIR SKIES THROUGH
TUE WITH NEAR-RECORD, FALL-LIKE TEMPS.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK,
CREATING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE DESERT SW. MOST OF THE IMPACTS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERY
ACTIVITY IS MODELED TO REACH WESTERN AREAS ON WED. THE GILA REGION
IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP (20-30% CHANCE), WHICH WOULD BE
LIGHT AND ALL RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING AOA 10KFT. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (ABOUT 10% OR LESS). TROUGHING PERSISTS
OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ZONAL/SW FLOW
OVERHEAD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR US AFTER WED,
INCLUDING X-MAS. PASSING SHORTWAVES COULD RESULT IN BREEZY PM
WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUDS, OTHERWISE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO WATCH OUT FOR WOULD MOVE IN NEXT WEEKEND FROM
THE PACIFIC, BUT MODELS HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS IT
APPROACHES OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES STAY AT RECORD WARM LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS INTO THE 70S. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS BEING HINTED AT NEXT
WEEKEND AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW YEAR, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 902 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS HAVE
SETTLED DOWN AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 8KTS THROUGHOUT FROM W-SW. FEW-
SCT250 PASS OVERHEAD INTO THE DAYTIME, THEN CLEARING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 957 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS AND MIN RH'S FALLING INTO THE TEENS DAILY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE WINDS UNDER 15 MPH. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL RAISE RH'S INTO THE 20S
AND 30S ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OUT WEST. THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL KEEP RH'S UP ABOVE 20%. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO
FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 73 42 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 71 38 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 39 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 38 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 40 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 70 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 76 38 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 72 38 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 47 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 73 34 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 42 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 46 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 75 41 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 72 40 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 47 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 72 37 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 75 36 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 41 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 71 41 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 70 41 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 66 38 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 63 37 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 68 34 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 73 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 70 35 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 69 37 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 72 39 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 74 35 76 35 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 71 36 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 71 42 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 75 39 76 37 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 74 37 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 75 40 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 72 47 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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