500
FXUS64 KEPZ 122352
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
452 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIXED ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER SIXTIES.
- WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
EAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
CURRENTLY A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION AND WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW IS PULLING SOME MOISTURE AND CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS
LOCATIONS NEAR THE BORDER. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE TO SPIN SOME CLOUDS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR REGION.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE (30 TO 40%) OF LIGHT RAIN FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL
BE THE ONLY IMPACT WE SEE FROM THE SYSTEM JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
AFTER TODAY A SOME WHAT INTERESTING, BUT NOT IMPACTFUL WEATHER
PATTERN WILL SET UP. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY WE WILL
HAVE A WEATHER TRAFFIC JAMMING OR WHAT IS CALLED A BLOCK PATTERN
TO OUR WEST. A REX BLOCK LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
REX BLOCK OCCURS WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH AND LOW, THIS TYPE OF PATTERN "GETS STUCK" IN THE FLOW AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS WEEK. WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WE
WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA OF
MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN WHILE TO OUR EAST WILL BE A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. BETWEEN THE REX BLOCK TO OUR WEST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS TO OUR EAST, THAT WILL GIVE US A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND ONLY MODEST WARMING EACH DAY. AS A MATTER OF
FACT WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF SHOTS OF COOLER AIR TRY AND PUSH INTO
THE REGION, BUT RIGHT NOW THEIR IMPACTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
EACH DAY. FOR NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
TRY TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
AND WARM US UP A FEW MORE DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS 330-040 AOB 5
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. BKN-OVC170 ACROSS W TX OVERNIGHT, SKC ACROSS S
NM. SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
WE ARE MOVING INTO A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND NO STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. WE WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY IN SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY, BUT THEN DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WILL BE DRY MIN RH'S WISE, BUT NOT TOO DRY.
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE MIN RH'S NEAR 20% IN
THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION RATES
ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOR TO FAIR AND THEN IMPROVE A LITTLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 32 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 32 56 32 58 / 30 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 27 59 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 25 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 45 25 41 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 61 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 28 58 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 26 62 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 24 58 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 34 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 24 61 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 34 62 30 65 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 31 54 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 31 61 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 28 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 33 60 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 22 59 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 24 63 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 28 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 27 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 58 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 24 56 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 22 53 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 22 58 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 30 61 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 24 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 58 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 24 59 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 62 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 25 59 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 30 59 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 25 59 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 24 58 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 26 58 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 32 56 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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