710
FXUS64 KEPZ 111659
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1059 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
- CONTINUED MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST.
- MUCH BETTER MOISTURE TAP SETS UP LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH
FLASH FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT'S BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW OVER THE
PAST WEEK WILL FINISH IT'S PROPAGATION WEST AND REDEVELOP OVER CA
AND GREAT BASIN VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL MID-
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS
AND IT'S ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS
WELL, PROMOTING MORE UPPER LEVEL ENHANCEMENT. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH NEAR-AVERAGE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER,
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PRESENT AS WE SIT UNDER THE FAR EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL HIGH, SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL ENTRAIN FROM THE NORTH, HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. CONVECTION WILL KICKOFF OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SACS/GILA MTNS AROUND THE NOON TIMEFRAME TODAY. WITH
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROPOGATE OFF
THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HREF
ENSEMBLE SUITE AND OTHER CAMS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AROUND 100
DEGREES FOR EL PASO.
FOR TUESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER CA AND GREAT BASIN VICINITY
WILL SOUTHERN NM AND WEST TX UNDER IT'S EASTERN PERIPHERY. A WEAK
BUT SUFFICIENT LOBE OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NEAR-AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PWS IN PLACE, THIS VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL INDUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN, AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RAP FORECAST
SOUNDING LOOK TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE COMPARED TO TODAY. WITH SLOW
STORM MOTION, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS AT PLAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACNW AND SWERN CANADA WILL PUSH AND WEAKEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE DESERT SW AND FOUR CORNERS
VICINITY. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL
WILL BEGIN SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD, ALLOWING BETTER FAVORABLE
MONSOONAL FLOW WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THE THEME
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.
LONGER RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALLUDED TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW/FOUR
CORNERS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM AND WEST TX. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES AT FEW WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCT TO BKN AT 10-15 KFT WITH CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SACS/GILA MTNS AROUND 18Z,
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS EXIST FOR KELP/KDMN/KLRU
AFTER 00Z WITH ISO TO SCT TSRA THEREAFTER. IF TSRA IMPACTS
TERMINALS, BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN, LOWERING CIGS, REDUCTION VIS, AND
GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL BE SW/S AT 6-11 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST EACH DAY ALMOST AREAWIDE. GREATEST
CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY, RETURNING BACK TO AROUND
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15% EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, INCREASING FURTHER BY THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 98 73 97 / 40 30 40 20
SIERRA BLANCA 65 93 65 91 / 40 50 40 40
LAS CRUCES 67 93 66 93 / 30 20 50 20
ALAMOGORDO 66 93 65 94 / 30 30 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 48 70 48 70 / 30 60 30 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 93 66 93 / 20 30 30 20
SILVER CITY 61 90 60 87 / 30 50 50 60
DEMING 67 98 67 96 / 30 20 50 20
LORDSBURG 66 96 65 94 / 30 30 60 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 96 71 94 / 40 20 40 20
DELL CITY 67 94 67 95 / 30 30 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 72 97 70 96 / 40 50 40 30
LOMA LINDA 65 89 65 87 / 30 30 30 20
FABENS 71 96 70 95 / 30 30 40 20
SANTA TERESA 70 94 68 93 / 40 20 50 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 95 69 94 / 30 30 40 20
JORNADA RANGE 66 93 65 93 / 30 30 50 20
HATCH 66 96 66 95 / 30 30 40 30
COLUMBUS 69 96 69 95 / 40 20 50 20
OROGRANDE 66 92 66 91 / 30 30 40 20
MAYHILL 52 78 53 80 / 30 60 30 50
MESCALERO 52 81 52 81 / 30 60 40 50
TIMBERON 51 78 52 78 / 30 50 30 40
WINSTON 53 85 53 85 / 10 50 30 50
HILLSBORO 60 92 60 92 / 30 40 40 40
SPACEPORT 64 93 64 92 / 20 30 40 20
LAKE ROBERTS 56 90 55 87 / 20 50 50 80
HURLEY 61 91 60 90 / 30 40 40 50
CLIFF 63 97 62 95 / 20 40 40 60
MULE CREEK 61 93 60 91 / 20 40 30 60
FAYWOOD 61 90 62 88 / 30 40 50 50
ANIMAS 66 96 65 94 / 40 40 60 40
HACHITA 66 95 65 93 / 40 30 50 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 94 64 93 / 40 40 60 30
CLOVERDALE 64 90 62 88 / 40 50 70 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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