249
FXUS64 KEPZ 220409
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1009 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1009 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
- TYPICAL SPRING SEASON WEATHER BACK OVER THE REGION, WITH DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THE REGION WILL
BE CRITICALLY DRY, WITH NO PRECIPITATION, AND WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY, AND GUSTY AFTERNOONS.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE RISE, COMPOUNDING EACH DAY DUE TO THE
DRY CONDITIONS, INCREASED WINDS, AND DRYING FUELS. EACH AFTERNOON
WILL BE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE LAGGING MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL FLUSH OUT TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT, AS OUR WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS, AND ALLOWS FOR A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE OVER AND IMPORT
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT
ZERO, AND ALLOW FOR A DROP OF RH TO CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS. A BROAD
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE A PERSISTENT FEATURE TO OUR WEST, WITH
SEVERAL SHARP SHORTWAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING OUT OF THE TROUGH
AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, AND THIS
WEEKEND. THIS TIME OF YEAR, THAT MEANS A PATTERN OF BREEZY TO LOW
END WINDY CONDITIONS, WITH PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS DURING THE
PASSAGE OF DISTURBANCES.
THESE IMPULSES WILL PASS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THOSE DAYS
DELIVERING THE STRONGEST WIND DAYS. OTHERWISE, FOR WEDNESDAY,
FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY, WE STILL SEE AT LEAST BREEZY AFTERNOONS, WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS. THOSE DAYS WILL BRING WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE, WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A 20 TO 30 MPH DAY
WITH GUSTS 35 MPH, AND SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WIND DAY WITH
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK
HARD AT BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY AND CERTAINLY FOR
SUNDAY, BUT ALSO MINOR DUST IMPACTS FOR THE "BETWEEN" DAYS.
WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW, AND ALL SYSTEMS PASSING
WELL NORTH, WE WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY, WITH ZERO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FAIRLY STEADY, WITH MILD OVERNIGHTS,
AND DAILY HIGHS BOUNCING 3-8 DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGES. NOT
MUCH CHANGES AFTER THE BREEZY TO WINDY WEEKEND, BUT WE GET A SHORT
BREAK IN THE WINDS MONDAY, BEHIND THE SUNDAY TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT WE
SEE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY FOR MORE BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1009 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EARLY TONIGHT, WITH A BAND OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 25KFT. THESE CLOUD WILL EXIT THE
REGION TOMORROW MORNING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GENERALLY WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE, THEN INCREASING TOMORROW AFTERNOON 16-18Z TO THE 10-15
KT RANGE WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. MINOR HAZE AND LIMITED BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY TO REDUCE VSBY ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST BEGINNING ON WED.
WINDS BECOME BREEZY FROM THE W-SW TOMORROW AT 15-20 MPH, CREATING
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX. RED FLAG CRITERIA COULD BE MET
IN ISOLATED SPOTS WED AFTERNOON (MOST LIKELY FOOTHILLS OF THE
BLACKS/SACS), BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED. WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THU, RESULTING IN
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX AREAS. FUELS WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD
THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, CLIMBING TOWARDS
THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY THE WEEKEND, MAYBE EARLIER. ERCS ARE IN
WORSE SHAPE IN THE LINCOLN COMPARED TO THE GILA, BOTH CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES. FIRE WX WATCHES MAY BE
ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THU IF FUELS TREND TOWARDS THE 90TH, SINCE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR EXCEED CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. CONTINUED ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX IS
FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN HUDSPETH THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ZERO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% TODAY, THEN 7-18%. VENT RATES WILL BE
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY, THEN EXCELLENT AREA-WIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 87 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 82 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 84 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 53 84 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 61 41 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 84 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 52 86 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 82 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 86 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 87 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 58 88 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 85 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 84 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 50 87 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 87 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 84 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 46 74 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 45 73 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 45 71 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 41 76 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 82 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 84 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 74 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 78 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 81 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 76 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 50 84 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 83 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 83 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 78 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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