699
FXUS64 KEPZ 022331
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- WE WILL SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN IN THE GILA REGION AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA BORDER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS
WEEK. WE WON'T BE AS HOT AS WE WERE LAST WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WE WILL DRY OUT (BUT NOT COMPLETELY) AND WARM UP (BUT NOT TOO
HOT) FOR THIS COMING WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US
THE REALLY HOT TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK, HAS WANDERED OFF TO ARIZONA
AND NEVADA. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE IS PULLING IN DRIER
AIR ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST AND THAT WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR RAIN
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. REALLY THE ONLY PLACE
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN, WILL BE IN THE GILA REGION. MONDAY
AFTERNOON'S HIGHS WILL RUN 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHICH
WILL RETURN THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD NEW MEXICO
AGAIN AND THAT WILL ALLOW OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CREEP UP
ANOTHER ONE TO TWO DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON TUESDAY WILL BE 6
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THAT WILL PUT LOWLAND HIGHS NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F) ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO. RAIN CHANCES AGAIN WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE GILA REGION. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST AND THAT WILL
ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO COME DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR BOTH
AFTERNOONS. ON WEDNESDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREA
MOUNTAINS, AND ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT ALSO IN THE LOWLANDS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
FOR FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA WHICH WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MOISTURE TO SLIP INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL GIVE MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (THOUGH THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT
VERY HIGH). HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN OPINION ON
WHERE THE RIDGE WILL JOURNEY NEXT. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER UTAH,
WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CENTERS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE CLOSER, OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
GFS'S SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE OUR LOW GRADE RAIN CHANCES, WHILE
THE ECMWF'S UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITION WILL PUSH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION, KEEPING US GENERALLY DRY. FOR NOW
I'M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION, SO THINGS LOOK TO BE A
LITTLE DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTH OUT OF THE GILA REGION.
KDMN COULD SEE A WIND SHIFT LATER THIS EVENING OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS CAN EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WE WILL HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK AS DRIER AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION. MIN RH'S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND IN THE 20'S
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND IN AREA MOUNTAINS. A LITTLE MOISTURE
WILL CREEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW OUR MIN RH'S TO CREEP A
LITTLE HIGHER; MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND MID 20'S TO
MID 30'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL STAY
WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. LIKE I MENTIONED THE DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT OUR RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK, BUT THE GILA REGION WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SEE AT LEAST A DAILY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 96 67 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 52 76 55 78 / 0 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 100 72 101 / 0 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 64 92 64 93 / 20 50 20 50
DEMING 69 100 70 102 / 0 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 70 98 69 98 / 10 30 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 101 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 104 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 102 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 72 100 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 71 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 70 103 71 105 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 73 101 74 103 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 69 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 88 60 89 / 0 10 0 20
MESCALERO 58 88 61 90 / 0 10 0 30
TIMBERON 55 85 57 88 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 60 92 62 92 / 10 30 20 10
HILLSBORO 67 99 68 100 / 0 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 68 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 59 92 58 93 / 20 40 20 70
HURLEY 65 95 65 96 / 10 40 20 30
CLIFF 66 99 66 99 / 20 40 20 60
MULE CREEK 65 94 64 95 / 20 40 20 60
FAYWOOD 67 95 67 96 / 10 20 10 30
ANIMAS 70 99 70 98 / 10 10 30 10
HACHITA 69 98 69 98 / 0 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 97 68 98 / 0 20 30 30
CLOVERDALE 66 92 65 91 / 10 20 40 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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