684
FXUS64 KEPZ 272306
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
506 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF OCTOBER WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BECOMING SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD BUT LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CONUS. FLOW IS
RELATIVELY WEAK OVER US WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT THOUGH
SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS SEASONABLY ROBUST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S EAST. A WEAK SYSTEM IS DEPARTING THE AREA.
WITH A LACK OF UL FORCING, NEARLY ALL OF US ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
DRY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARD THE HUDSPETH -
CULBERSON COUNTY LINE AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THAT
VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. WE WILL SEE VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING.
GFS AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW A SINGLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
HUDSPETH COUNTY (FARTHER WEST IN THE GFS), SO I ADDED LOW POPS FOR
THAT AREA. MOST OF US REMAIN DRY.
OUR NEXT UL SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A S/W
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE BAJA COAST BEFORE SHIFTING ENE.
THIS PATTERN WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX
WHILE UL SUPPORT INCREASES. THUS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP/MOVE NORTH, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL SEE A
QUICK BREAK WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH AXIS PASSES
FOLLOWED BY A VERY SMALL S/W RIDGE. THIS BREAK DOES NOT LAST LONG
THOUGH AS ANOTHER RIPPLE QUICKLY FOLLOWS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED. FOR BOTH DAYS, MODEST CAPE (~500 J/KG) AND SHEAR (~20
KNOTS; SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON FRIDAY) SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK BASED ON THE LREF MEAN THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE
EURO SHOWS A LITTLE STRONGER CAPE (CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG) AND SHEAR
(NEAR 30 KNOTS) FOR THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD LEND TO A NON-ZERO
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WE GET A BREAK FOR HALLOWEEN. THE SECOND RIPPLE WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA TAKING PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT BY DAY BREAK WITH A S/W
RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE
CLEARING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. THERE WILL BE NOTHING
SPOOKY ABOUT THE FORECAST THAT EVENING.
THE HALLOWEEN RIDGE CLEARS OUT QUICKLY, AND OUR NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LARGE S/W TROUGH
OFF THE SOCAL COAST AS EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM ENTER THE EXIT
REGION OF THE LOW'S JET. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE AZ-
NM BORDER, REACHING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM WITH THIS EVENT (ISOLATED THUNDER),
SO THE RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE NONE AND FLOODING VERY LOW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT SOMETIME MONDAY, TAKING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT. IT WILL ALSO PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY SKC WITH FEW060
LINGERING THIS EVENING AROUND KELP. S WINDS AROUND 10KTS FOR KTCS
TO START THE PERIOD AND AFTER 18Z, OTHERWISE AOB 6KTS. ISOLATED TS
EAST OF KELP LATE IN PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD AS AFTERNOON
RH VALUES STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL. LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SUNDAY. VENT RATES WILL RANGE POOR TO GOOD EACH AFTERNOON. THE
WEAKEST VENT RATES WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 79 58 77 / 0 0 0 40
SIERRA BLANCA 52 78 54 72 / 10 20 20 60
LAS CRUCES 52 77 53 75 / 0 0 0 30
ALAMOGORDO 52 77 54 75 / 0 10 0 40
CLOUDCROFT 39 57 40 55 / 0 10 10 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 47 72 48 71 / 0 0 0 30
DEMING 51 79 53 76 / 0 0 0 30
LORDSBURG 50 77 52 76 / 0 0 0 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 79 60 76 / 0 0 0 40
DELL CITY 53 77 55 74 / 10 20 20 30
FORT HANCOCK 59 85 60 80 / 0 20 20 50
LOMA LINDA 53 73 54 70 / 0 20 20 50
FABENS 57 82 59 78 / 0 20 20 40
SANTA TERESA 55 78 56 75 / 0 0 0 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 80 58 76 / 0 0 0 30
JORNADA RANGE 53 78 54 75 / 0 0 0 30
HATCH 52 81 53 78 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 54 80 55 77 / 0 0 0 30
OROGRANDE 51 76 53 74 / 0 0 0 30
MAYHILL 44 69 44 66 / 0 0 0 50
MESCALERO 43 68 44 67 / 0 10 0 50
TIMBERON 41 65 43 63 / 10 10 10 40
WINSTON 40 70 41 67 / 0 0 0 30
HILLSBORO 49 77 51 73 / 0 0 0 40
SPACEPORT 50 76 50 74 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 41 72 42 70 / 0 0 0 40
HURLEY 46 75 47 73 / 0 0 0 40
CLIFF 47 78 48 78 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 45 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 20
FAYWOOD 48 74 50 71 / 0 0 0 40
ANIMAS 52 79 53 77 / 0 0 0 20
HACHITA 51 78 52 76 / 0 0 0 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 30
CLOVERDALE 50 74 52 73 / 0 0 0 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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