733
FXUS64 KEPZ 211121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
521 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- LOWER STORM COVERAGE TODAY, LIMITED MORE TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK, LIMITING
STORMS TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. LOWLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HELPED GENERATE WIDE SPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY, WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DRIFT TO THE WEST. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE REDUCED, WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, BUT THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. ENJOY THE "COOLER" WEATHER, SINCE IT WON'T LAST
LONG.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL PUSH MOST OF THE MOISTURE INTO
ARIZONA AND START TO REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
AVERAGE. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE
INTO NEW MEXICO AND WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURE CREEP 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT ON FRIDAY (IF NOT ON THURSDAY). FOR THE WEEKEND, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
LITTLE MOISTURE TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY IN AREA
MOUNTAINS AND TO KEEP MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL IN DOUBT, BUT NO
MATTER WHAT, THINGS STILL LOOK PRETTY HOT WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES BEGINNING SCT-BKN150
THIS MORNING, WITH SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 5 KNOTS. AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS 160-190 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SKIES FEW-SCT070. TSRA
ACROSS W NM AND MTNS, LIKELY NOT AFFECTING LOCAL TAF SITES
DIRECTLY TODAY. NO MENTION OF TS IN TAFS CURRENTLY, WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY LATE THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (30-50% COVERAGE) ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO AND GILA/LINCOLN NF THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH LOWER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUDDEN,
GUSTY WINDS, CANYON AND BURN SCAR FLOODING, AND NEW LIGHTNING
STARTS. MIN RH 30-50% WITH VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY.
MOISTURE SHIFTS WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES WITH MUCH MORE ISOLATED (10-20%) STORM COVERAGE OVER
MOUNTAINS. DRIER AND WARMER TREND WILL ALLOW ERCS TO INCREASE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 96 75 99 / 20 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 91 65 93 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 66 92 68 96 / 30 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 93 70 97 / 20 20 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 70 52 74 / 20 50 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 91 70 95 / 30 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 84 63 88 / 60 30 20 10
DEMING 65 94 68 98 / 50 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 90 68 95 / 60 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 94 75 98 / 20 10 10 0
DELL CITY 69 96 70 99 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 98 73 100 / 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 66 88 68 91 / 20 10 0 0
FABENS 71 96 72 100 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 69 92 71 96 / 20 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 94 76 97 / 20 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 92 71 96 / 20 10 10 0
HATCH 67 95 70 99 / 30 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 69 94 72 99 / 50 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 92 69 96 / 20 10 0 0
MAYHILL 56 82 56 86 / 20 30 10 10
MESCALERO 55 81 56 85 / 20 50 10 10
TIMBERON 54 80 55 83 / 20 20 0 0
WINSTON 58 82 59 87 / 50 40 0 20
HILLSBORO 64 89 67 93 / 50 20 10 0
SPACEPORT 64 91 67 96 / 20 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 85 58 90 / 60 40 20 10
HURLEY 61 87 64 91 / 60 20 10 0
CLIFF 63 90 65 95 / 60 30 20 10
MULE CREEK 60 86 63 91 / 60 30 20 10
FAYWOOD 63 86 65 91 / 50 10 10 0
ANIMAS 64 90 68 95 / 60 10 10 0
HACHITA 63 90 66 95 / 60 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 89 67 94 / 50 10 20 0
CLOVERDALE 61 85 64 90 / 50 20 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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