713
FXUS64 KEPZ 112316
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
516 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 434 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS.
- LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR STRONGER STORMS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
H500 HIGH IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD, CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS MORNING. IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, GFS SHOWS SOME
CONVERGENCE AT H700, AND THAT IS LIKELY WHAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A
WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF OUR CWA.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THUS, WE WILL SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, MUCH SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY, WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WITH MORE ISOLATED LOWLAND COVERAGE EAST. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE STRONG, DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS, AND BASED ON
YESTERDAY, THESE GUSTS COULD REACH 70 MPH. WITH THE WINDS WILL
COME BLOWING DUST, AND I HAVE ISSUED A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR
OUR SOUTHWEST LOWLANDS. THE UL HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD
SHIFT TOMORROW WITH AN OTHERWISE SIMILAR FORECAST ALBEIT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER.
BEGINNING MONDAY WE ENTER AN ACTIVE PATTERN. THE UL HIGH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LEAVING US WITH A DEEP EASTERLY
FETCH. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR MOISTURE, COOL THE COLUMN (INCLUDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS), AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THESE CHANCES WILL BE ENHANCED BY SMALL-
SCALE UL WAVES THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THIS FAR OUT. ONE NOTABLE UL WAVE, HOWEVER, LOOKS TO
ESPECIALLY ENHANCE OUR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE GFS
AND EURO DISAGREE ON ITS EVOLUTION, BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
LOW FORMING OVER THE SE ON MONDAY THAT WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
WEST, REACHING US BY MID-WEEK, POSSIBLY STALLING OVER US OR AT
LEAST, SLOWING TO A CRAWL. THUS, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
WE WILL NEED TO WAIT ON THE DETAILS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT100 SCT-
BKN250. SCATTERED BKN060CB -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH ISOLATED
BKN060CB -TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 KNOTS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE
UNTIL AROUND 02Z. FOR TAF SITES, KTCS COULD SEE A STORM BUT TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE DECREASING. TODAY WILL BE OUR DRIEST AND
HOTTEST DAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR COVERAGE TO
YESTERDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS.
AFTER TODAY, HIGHS DECREASE WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES. MIN RH
VALUES WILL BE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
VENTING TODAY WILL RANGE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT BUT WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. WINDS, OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 97 75 92 / 20 20 20 40
SIERRA BLANCA 66 91 64 86 / 20 20 20 70
LAS CRUCES 70 95 68 91 / 20 20 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 68 90 / 20 30 20 60
CLOUDCROFT 51 72 50 68 / 20 30 30 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 94 70 91 / 30 20 40 20
SILVER CITY 65 89 64 86 / 40 30 40 30
DEMING 69 98 68 94 / 20 20 30 20
LORDSBURG 68 95 69 92 / 30 20 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 96 75 91 / 20 20 20 40
DELL CITY 69 94 68 90 / 20 20 20 40
FORT HANCOCK 74 98 72 93 / 20 20 30 70
LOMA LINDA 68 89 66 85 / 20 20 20 40
FABENS 74 98 72 93 / 20 20 20 50
SANTA TERESA 73 95 71 90 / 20 20 20 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 96 75 92 / 20 20 20 30
JORNADA RANGE 72 95 70 92 / 20 20 20 30
HATCH 71 98 70 95 / 20 20 30 20
COLUMBUS 75 98 73 94 / 20 20 20 30
OROGRANDE 70 94 68 90 / 20 20 20 30
MAYHILL 56 81 54 77 / 20 40 60 60
MESCALERO 56 82 54 79 / 20 40 30 70
TIMBERON 54 80 52 76 / 20 20 30 60
WINSTON 61 87 60 84 / 20 20 30 10
HILLSBORO 69 92 66 89 / 40 20 30 30
SPACEPORT 68 94 66 91 / 20 20 30 30
LAKE ROBERTS 58 89 58 87 / 30 40 40 40
HURLEY 65 92 64 89 / 30 30 40 10
CLIFF 65 94 65 92 / 30 60 40 50
MULE CREEK 63 90 62 89 / 30 50 40 50
FAYWOOD 66 91 65 87 / 30 20 40 20
ANIMAS 68 95 68 92 / 50 20 30 30
HACHITA 68 95 67 91 / 40 20 20 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 94 66 89 / 40 20 50 50
CLOVERDALE 64 90 63 85 / 50 20 60 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWLANDS
OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page