274
FXUS64 KEPZ 140530
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1030 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
- PACIFIC STORM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH NEAR-SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RESUME ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. WINDS
WILL BE LOW-END BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON.
- A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WORK WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON WILL OFFER
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
FOCUS OVER THE GILA ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
..SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLING IN ACROSS THE
REGION IN IT'S WAKE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ZERO BY MID-
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY, WITH FAIR, DRY, AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
BE LOW-END BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME, OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY. RIDGE AXIS WITH INCREASING SW
FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY, RAISING TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
..NEXT WEEK
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE THE START OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING
UP ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. CONSISTENT TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS MOVE
ONSHORE. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS, WITH FAIRLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SPECIFIC STORM TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTH OVER
NORTHERN AZ/NM AND SOUTHERN UT/CO. THE FIRST SPOKE OF ENERGY
(SHORTWAVE TROUGH) WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. CORRESPONDING LEE-SIDE SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA.
THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME , GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES. AS OF NOW, EACH SYSTEM
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY, OFFERING LITTLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z, COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED - SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS. SKIES BKN TO OVC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
AFTER 12Z, BECOMING FEW TO SCT AFTER DAYBREAK AND EVENTUALLY SKC
TO FEW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. WINDS
SHIFT WNW FOR SAT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MON BEFORE A SERIES OF
TROUGHS PASS BY THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING ON MON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS, SOME
WINDY DAYS ARE POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY TUE AND THU. OTHER THAN A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIP AROUND TUE FOR FWZ110, NO RAIN IS FORECAST AFTER
TOMORROW MORNING. DRYING OF FUELS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FIRE
DANGER NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-50% THROUGH SAT, FALLING TO 12-30% BY MON.
VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD THROUGH SAT, POOR TO
GOOD ON SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 46 67 42 73 / 50 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 41 61 37 68 / 60 20 0 0
LAS CRUCES 41 64 36 68 / 50 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 38 63 35 69 / 50 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 40 27 50 / 50 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 66 38 68 / 50 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 58 35 62 / 70 10 0 0
DEMING 41 66 36 71 / 70 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 60 35 68 / 80 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 66 44 72 / 50 10 0 0
DELL CITY 40 66 35 70 / 40 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 45 69 40 75 / 50 20 0 0
LOMA LINDA 40 60 40 65 / 50 10 0 0
FABENS 44 68 40 75 / 60 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 43 65 38 70 / 50 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 66 42 69 / 40 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 66 34 70 / 50 10 0 0
HATCH 41 69 35 71 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 44 66 39 70 / 60 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 40 63 37 69 / 50 10 0 0
MAYHILL 33 55 30 65 / 40 10 0 0
MESCALERO 31 53 29 61 / 60 10 0 0
TIMBERON 33 51 33 57 / 50 10 0 0
WINSTON 29 58 27 63 / 60 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 66 37 67 / 60 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 36 66 33 68 / 40 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 58 30 64 / 70 10 0 0
HURLEY 35 60 34 64 / 70 0 0 0
CLIFF 35 64 32 70 / 70 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 34 59 32 66 / 80 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 38 62 37 63 / 60 0 0 0
ANIMAS 39 62 36 71 / 80 0 0 0
HACHITA 40 61 35 69 / 70 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 38 63 35 71 / 70 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 39 56 38 65 / 90 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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