234
FXUS64 KEPZ 141711
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1111 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- TODAY WILL BE THE REGION'S BEST CHANCE TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THROUGH MONDAY, BUT TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
ACTIVE DAY STILL LOOKS ON SCHEDULE. WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA; SUBTLE SATELLITE FEATURES SHOW IT
OUT NEAR THE CONT DIVIDE AT THIS TIME WHERE IT SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY STATIONARY AND MIX OUT. MODELS SHOWS SOME MINOR SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH IT. FEATURE SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S WEST AND 50S EAST. ALOFT SUB-TROPICAL HIGH REMAINS
IN PLACE FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA TO NORTHERN MEXICO. SHORT-WAVE,
POSSIBLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SWINGS DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALONG THE NORTH MARGINS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH LATER TODAY. ALSO
250MB SUB-TROPICAL JET ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HAVE ITS RRQ
OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADD IN ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND ALL
THESE INGREDIENTS ADD UP TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.
DIURNAL PATTERN SHOULD HOLD AGAIN, WITH MOUNTAIN STORMS
DEVELOPING BY NOON, AND SPREADING DOWN TO THE LOWLANDS AFTER
AROUND 2PM. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE DROPPING
DOWN TO LAS CRUCES/EL PASO AREA AFTER 5PM, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT-WAVE. WITH CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG, AND MAYBE AS HIGH AS
2000 J/KG LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST, ALONG WITH GOOD SPEED SHEAR,
SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL
(1.0-1.5 INCHES) IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45-60 MPH.
WITH PWS APPROACHING 150-200% OF NORMAL TODAY, SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ALL THESE THREATS ARE HIGHEST
FROM A LINE FROM SILVER CITY-DEMING AND EAST.
MONDAY WILL SEE SOME DRYING AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PULLS IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. PWS DROP TO .75-1.00 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS
BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE 40S NORTHWEST. HENCE POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
THOUGH ALL AREAS STILL WILL SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US
SPLITS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN TWO, WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE EAST
PACIFIC HIGH AND DRIER AIR. THUS OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN AND NM
BOOTHEEL STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR RAIN MOST
OTHER AREAS. HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY, WITH LOWLAND HIGH TEMPS
RISING BACK TO AROUND 100-105 EACH DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REFORM OVER THE
GULF OF AMERICA, TEXAS, AND NEW MEXICO. LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WITH DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW IS ABLE TO IMPINGE INTO THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND
SHOULD SCOUR OUT MOST MOISTURE, AND WITH IT, ANY CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SCT100 SCT-BKN250 WITH SCATTERED BKN070CB 4-6SM -TSRA DEVELOPING
SHORTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS THEN SPREADING TO THE
LOWLANDS AFTER 20Z. STORMS MOSTLY OVER BY 06Z WEST OF THE RG
VALLEY, BUT PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE RG VALLEY
EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OF 45-55 KNOTS. NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS EAST/SOUTHEAST 10-15 KNOTS
EAST OF THE CONT DIVIDE, AND WEST 10-15 KNOTS TO THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGH MIN RHS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY. MIN RHS DO
LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL TUE-THU FOR THE LOWLANDS AS HIGH TEMPS
CREEP BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL, SO ELEVATED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...20% WEST-35% EAST TODAY AND MONDAY, LOWERING
TO 10-15% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GILA/BLACK RANGE...20-30%
TODAY AND MONDAY, LOWERING TO 10-20% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS...40-50% TODAY AND MONDAY, LOWERING TO
15-25% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD TODAY AND
MONDAY, IMPROVING TO VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 93 72 99 / 60 20 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 87 62 93 / 40 20 30 0
LAS CRUCES 64 91 63 97 / 60 30 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 90 66 97 / 50 20 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 70 49 75 / 50 30 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 90 66 97 / 60 40 10 0
SILVER CITY 60 89 60 92 / 30 30 20 0
DEMING 64 94 64 99 / 30 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 66 96 66 98 / 10 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 91 70 97 / 60 20 30 0
DELL CITY 63 89 63 95 / 30 30 30 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 94 69 99 / 60 20 30 0
LOMA LINDA 63 85 64 90 / 50 30 30 0
FABENS 67 94 68 99 / 50 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 66 90 65 96 / 50 20 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 91 71 97 / 60 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 62 90 63 97 / 60 30 10 0
HATCH 65 92 64 99 / 50 50 10 0
COLUMBUS 69 95 69 99 / 50 20 30 0
OROGRANDE 61 89 63 95 / 50 20 20 0
MAYHILL 53 79 55 86 / 50 60 20 20
MESCALERO 52 80 54 86 / 40 50 20 0
TIMBERON 50 76 51 82 / 50 40 30 10
WINSTON 55 84 56 90 / 30 40 10 0
HILLSBORO 63 88 63 94 / 30 50 10 10
SPACEPORT 59 89 60 96 / 50 40 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 54 89 54 93 / 20 50 20 0
HURLEY 61 91 61 95 / 30 30 20 0
CLIFF 60 95 60 98 / 10 30 10 0
MULE CREEK 54 91 55 94 / 10 30 10 10
FAYWOOD 62 89 62 94 / 30 50 20 0
ANIMAS 65 95 65 97 / 20 10 10 0
HACHITA 64 95 64 98 / 30 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 94 64 96 / 40 20 20 10
CLOVERDALE 63 89 61 91 / 40 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page