221
FXUS64 KEPZ 131915
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
115 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
- INCREASING STORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING.
- JUST ISOLATED, UNORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE REQUIRED TODAY, WITH MOSTLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
REGION.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH PWATS RANGING AROUND 1.2-1.4" ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LOW TO MEDIUM CONVECTIVE CHANCES
(20-40%) DURING THAT TIMEFRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING HOURS. HAVING SAID THAT, LATEST CAM RUNS HAVE TRENDED
DRIER LIKELY DUE TO THE ONGOING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING ALOFT.
REGARDLESS OF COVERAGE, THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND A FEW
PASSING WEAKNESS ALOFT COULD EASILY CREATE FLOODING ISSUES WITH
ANY OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
RECENT BURN SCARS, AND LOW-LYING/URBAN AREAS. THEREFORE, WPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN AROUND MID WEEK (PWATS
0.75-1.0"), WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER, A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.1-1.3") AND INSTABILITY (SBCAPE VALUES ~800-1000 J/KG) TO
PROVIDE MEDIUM TO AT TIMES HIGH (40-80%) CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL AGAIN WILL RESIDE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH
ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FRIDAY OR SATURDAY THIS WEEK,
PLEASE PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST UPDATES AS WE FINE
TUNE THE DETAILS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE CYCLE AT AREA
TERMINALS UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE SITES. THE
BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS ALSO DECOUPLING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
REPEAT ON TUESDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE WEST WITH
WINDS FROM THE EAST OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, BEFORE CONVECTIVE CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 92 71 92 / 20 30 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 62 84 60 84 / 20 40 10 10
LAS CRUCES 66 91 66 90 / 20 20 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 65 91 64 88 / 20 20 10 50
CLOUDCROFT 48 69 48 67 / 20 20 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 93 70 89 / 20 10 30 40
SILVER CITY 61 86 61 82 / 40 50 40 70
DEMING 66 94 65 93 / 40 10 10 20
LORDSBURG 67 91 66 90 / 40 20 40 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 91 72 91 / 20 20 10 10
DELL CITY 66 89 64 88 / 20 30 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 70 91 68 91 / 30 40 10 10
LOMA LINDA 64 84 63 84 / 10 30 10 10
FABENS 70 92 68 92 / 10 30 10 10
SANTA TERESA 69 90 68 90 / 20 20 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 92 72 91 / 20 20 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 92 67 90 / 20 10 10 20
HATCH 68 95 68 93 / 20 20 10 30
COLUMBUS 70 93 69 93 / 30 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 66 90 65 88 / 20 20 10 20
MAYHILL 53 78 52 76 / 30 20 30 40
MESCALERO 52 81 52 78 / 20 20 20 60
TIMBERON 50 77 50 75 / 20 20 20 40
WINSTON 59 85 59 81 / 20 10 30 60
HILLSBORO 65 90 65 87 / 30 10 20 50
SPACEPORT 65 92 65 89 / 20 20 10 40
LAKE ROBERTS 56 88 56 83 / 30 40 50 80
HURLEY 62 88 62 85 / 40 30 30 60
CLIFF 64 91 64 88 / 40 60 40 80
MULE CREEK 62 88 62 84 / 40 60 40 90
FAYWOOD 63 88 63 85 / 40 20 30 50
ANIMAS 66 91 66 90 / 30 20 30 10
HACHITA 65 90 64 90 / 40 10 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 89 65 89 / 30 40 30 10
CLOVERDALE 63 84 63 85 / 30 40 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...88-NIEVES
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