333
FXUS64 KEPZ 201729
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1029 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 927 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER
FAIR SKIES.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC LOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND WINTRY MIX
ARE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. TEMPS RISE BACK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS ON THU UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
SCOOPED UP AHEAD OF IT STARTING THU NIGHT BY A STRONG JET STREAK,
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRI. PW ANOMALIES WILL
BE 2-4 SIGMA ABOVE CLIMO ACCORDING TO GLOBAL ENSEMBLES, REACHING
NEAR 0.75" DURING THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE BY FRI AM AS
MOIST, SW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD DYNAMICS
WITH THE JET STREAK OVERHEAD AND PVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGH POPS (80-90%) FRI-SAT, PEAKING FRI NIGHT. QPF
CONTINUES TO TREND UP DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SET-UP WITH GENERALLY
0.5-1" TOTAL LIQUID EXPECTED. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN QPF
AMONG THE MODELS AND THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE, THE HISTORICALLY STRONG, ARCTIC AIRMASS (1050MB HIGH)
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FLEX ITS MUSCLES AND TRY TO SPILL INTO
OUR AREA BY SAT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE REGARDING THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR. THE PROGRESSION OR LACK THEREOF OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHICH LOWLAND LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX. EASTERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING
THE COLD AIR AS WARMER TEMPS HOLD OUT WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT, SNOW WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS SNOW LEVELS HOLD AT 6-7KFT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE
LOWLANDS. AS THE EVENT WINDS DOWN SAT NIGHT/SUN, SNOW LEVELS
CRASH TO AROUND THE DESERT FLOOR, ALLOWING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
THE LOWLANDS INTO SUN. PRECIP CHANCES END DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF AREA MTNS, WHERE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT AMOUNTS. HIGH CHANCE (70-80% OF 4" OR
MORE) OF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE SACS AS THEY WON'T HAVE ANY
ISSUE SEEING SNOW STICK. THE WIDE RANGE OF QPF OUTCOMES MAKES THE
SNOW FORECAST MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE SACS. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT A 50/50 SHOT AT 8" OR MORE IN THE SACS (ABOVE 7500FT) AND
20-30% CHANCE OF A FOOT OR MORE. THE BLACKS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
LESS SNOWFALL MAINLY DUE TO HIGHER SNOW LEVELS.
THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING IN DRY AIR BEHIND IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW FAR WEST THE FRONT MAKES IT ON SAT, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW COLD IT REMAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH A SLOW WARM-UP INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING RETURNS. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR
SKIES ARE FORECAST AFTER SUN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AOB 8KTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY. MAINLY SKC EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHER THAN MODEST WEST BREEZES IN FWZ113, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARM THROUGH THU TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD THROUGH WED NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI-SAT AS COLD AIR
SPILLS IN ON SAT. SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR THE SACS. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH SAT, THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT/SUN
AS THE EVENT WRAPS UP. SOME BREEZY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM LATE
IN THE WEEK. COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW
MUCH COLD AIR REACHES THE AREA.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% THROUGH THU, THEN 40-70% THROUGH
WEEKEND. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR THROUGH WED, POOR TO GOOD
FOR THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 33 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 30 61 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 27 59 33 63 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 26 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 25 45 28 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 30 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 58 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 27 62 33 66 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 27 62 34 63 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 35 62 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 22 60 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 30 66 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 33 57 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 29 64 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 29 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 33 60 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 23 60 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 24 63 30 66 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 29 62 35 66 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 26 59 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 27 57 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 25 55 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 25 51 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 22 56 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 31 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 22 60 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 27 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 28 59 32 63 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 25 64 31 65 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 27 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 32 58 36 61 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 30 65 35 66 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 27 63 33 65 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 65 35 68 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 39 63 42 61 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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