690
FXUS64 KEPZ 102329
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
429 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
- WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- MOST AREAS STAY DRY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE EL PASO METRO AREA.
- A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AREAWIDE
WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 929 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF EL PASO WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOSTLY HUDSPETH COUNTY
AND SOUTHEASTERN OTERO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT THAT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE
VARIABLE WITH HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION, CREATING CONDITIONS FOR VARIABLE CLOUD FORMATION.
ANOTHER LOWER PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE WEST
COAST AND DIRECTLY OVER NEW MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL TAP AND PULL UP EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST LATER
IN THE DAY. EXPECTED RAIN ESTIMATES WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FOR THIS EVENT WILL START OUT HIGH, ABOVE 8500
FEET ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND
7000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING AS VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH AND EASTWARD. MOST
TERMINALS WON'T SEE RAIN TODAY (KTCS, KDMN, AND KLRU) BUT KELP HAS
A SLIM SHOT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS AOB 10KT. THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AND
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAVORED
AREAS LIKE SIERRA BLANCA MOUNTAIN NEAR RUIDOSO.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY
WITH STEADY WEST WINDS. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST HAS DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT WILL GENERATE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE FEW
TO SCT AT 7-10 KFT THROUGH THE EVENING, BECOMING BKN TO OVC AT
25 KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT 3-7
KNOTS AND VRB IN DIRECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 929 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH MIN RHS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LOWLAND MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20% TO AS HIGH AS
45% SOME DAYS AND MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE 40-60%. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION. FIRST CHANCE BEING TODAY BUT
ONLY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF EL PASO. NEXT SHOT
WILL BE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. CRITICAL MIN RHS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS STAY FAIRLY CALM THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH SPEEDS 10-15 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 41 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 71 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 71 44 71 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 33 52 35 51 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 71 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 66 42 64 / 0 10 0 0
DEMING 43 74 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 72 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 73 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 40 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 44 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 44 67 45 67 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 45 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 45 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 48 73 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 75 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 75 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 43 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 35 65 37 64 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 35 63 36 62 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 38 59 39 59 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 32 65 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 40 71 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 65 36 63 / 0 10 0 10
HURLEY 40 69 40 67 / 0 10 0 0
CLIFF 37 73 37 70 / 0 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 38 68 37 66 / 0 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 67 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 44 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 72 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 73 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 45 68 45 64 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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