708
FXUS64 KEPZ 212339
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
539 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
- WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE 80S. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
REGION. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
- THE FLOOD THREAT LINGERS FOR EASTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE STORM
CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE "LANDFALL" OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATER TONIGHT. TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SPINNING
AWAY LEAVING US SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP INITIALLY OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER DURING
THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON TODAY AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE FIZZLING AWAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (58+ MPH)
AND/OR SEVERE HAIL (1"+) IS POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT TODAY ENCOMPASSING THE AREA
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OVER SOCAL AND SOUTHERN NV AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PW VALUES WILL REACH 1.1"-1.2" WHICH WOULD BE IN
RECORD BREAKING CATEGORY. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHERE 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MARGINAL RISK IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE RIO GRANDE AND WEST. A SMALL AREA OF A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) IN PORTIONS OF THE GILA REGION TOMORROW. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, SEVERE HAIL, AND EVEN A SMALL RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GILA
REGION THURSDAY STARTING AT NOON THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FOCUSING OVER THIS REGION FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
2" OR SO. THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL PROMOTE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
A PIECE OF ENERGY PINCHES OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL ONLY CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. DRIER
AIR DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE MADE IT INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BUT ELSEWHERE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWS LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 1", WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL PLUS
30-40KT OF BULK SHEAR. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, THE SECOND CLOSED LOW WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE
OF LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOCUSING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. PWS DO DIP AT THIS TIME TO 0.8"-1" FOCUSING OUT EAST, SO
FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN. BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
35-50KT THAT AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER LIKELY. THE SECOND LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT OUT SUNDAY
MORNING DRYING OUT MUCH OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME
LINGERING STORM CHANCES SUNDAY FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS THAT
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER AND
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE EASTWARD OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL AND GILA
REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE IF ANY STORMS WILL REACH KDMN AND KTCS
THIS EVENING BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT KLRU OR KELP THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
18Z THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT KTCS, KDMN AND KLRU WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN MIXED WITH
HAIL BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THOSE SITES
INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KELP LATER THURSDAY
EVENING AFTER 00Z JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD FOR THIS
TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD AS MIN RHS STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND 20 FOOT WINDS STAY 5-10 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE 30-50% EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN RHS WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 50-
80% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.
FOCUS FOR STORMS THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
MOSTLY AREAWIDE CHANCES FRIDAY, BUT DRIER AIR DOES PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN LOCATIONS SATURDAY DAMPENING CHANCES OUT THAT WAY, BUT
ELSEWHERE WILL STILL HAVE GOOD CHANCES. LINGERING STORM CHANCES
EXIST FOR FAR WEST TX AND OTERO CO SUNDAY. EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING,
HAIL, AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 86 63 81 / 0 20 40 50
SIERRA BLANCA 58 83 59 79 / 0 0 10 30
LAS CRUCES 61 82 57 76 / 10 30 60 50
ALAMOGORDO 59 83 59 77 / 0 10 50 70
CLOUDCROFT 46 63 46 57 / 0 10 50 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 78 57 73 / 10 50 70 50
SILVER CITY 57 73 53 68 / 30 60 90 60
DEMING 61 83 56 76 / 20 50 80 60
LORDSBURG 62 80 57 76 / 40 60 60 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 86 65 80 / 0 20 40 50
DELL CITY 59 85 60 82 / 0 0 20 40
FORT HANCOCK 64 91 64 88 / 0 10 10 50
LOMA LINDA 58 79 58 76 / 0 10 20 60
FABENS 64 89 63 85 / 0 20 30 60
SANTA TERESA 64 85 61 79 / 0 20 50 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 85 62 79 / 10 20 60 60
JORNADA RANGE 61 83 58 76 / 10 30 70 40
HATCH 61 84 58 78 / 20 40 80 60
COLUMBUS 64 86 60 79 / 10 50 60 30
OROGRANDE 60 83 58 78 / 0 10 50 60
MAYHILL 50 73 51 69 / 0 0 30 80
MESCALERO 50 74 50 68 / 0 10 40 80
TIMBERON 49 70 48 65 / 0 0 50 80
WINSTON 51 69 49 67 / 10 50 80 50
HILLSBORO 60 78 55 73 / 20 50 90 60
SPACEPORT 59 80 56 74 / 10 30 70 50
LAKE ROBERTS 54 72 49 68 / 30 60 100 60
HURLEY 57 76 52 71 / 30 60 90 60
CLIFF 59 79 56 75 / 40 80 70 30
MULE CREEK 55 73 53 70 / 60 90 100 40
FAYWOOD 59 76 54 70 / 20 50 80 70
ANIMAS 61 82 57 78 / 30 60 60 20
HACHITA 60 82 57 78 / 30 50 60 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 84 58 81 / 30 50 60 10
CLOVERDALE 58 79 55 74 / 30 50 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA
REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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