981
FXUS64 KEPZ 031128
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
528 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
- WE WILL SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN IN THE GILA REGION AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA BORDER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS
WEEK. WE WON'T BE AS HOT AS WE WERE LAST WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO ELONGATE MONDAY, STRETCHING FROM
SOCAL TO NM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THIS
SAME AREA THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF HOT,
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS THE HOTTEST WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LOWER VALLEY AND POTENTIALLY EL PASO. CONTINUED
STORM CHANCES EACH DAY WITH A FOCUS OVER THE GILA REGION AND
WESTERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA BORDERING AZ. WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE LORDSBURG PLAYA THESE NEXT FEW DAYS IF ANY STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP NEARBY THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT CLOSER TO NV/UT/AZ BORDERS. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE
A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK IF WE CAN GET A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
NOT QUITE AS HOT THU/FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER 90S AND SOME
FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SKC-SCT130. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY
FAVORING FROM THE SOUTH.
SCT SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WHICH
COULD INCLUDE DMN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR TCS, LRU, AND ELP,
THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IS ALMOST ZERO, BUT OUTFLOWS MAY STILL CAUSE
WIND SHIFTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWER MIN RH
VALUES, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE AND TO AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT APART FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD VENT CATEGORIES. TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER
FOR TUESDAY, AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH STILL LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 104 77 102 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 98 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 71 101 71 99 / 0 10 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 75 101 71 99 / 0 20 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 56 78 54 75 / 0 30 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 101 73 98 / 10 30 40 10
SILVER CITY 65 94 64 91 / 20 40 40 40
DEMING 70 102 70 100 / 10 30 30 0
LORDSBURG 70 98 70 98 / 30 40 40 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 103 78 101 / 0 10 10 0
DELL CITY 71 102 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 106 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 71 96 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 74 103 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 101 74 101 / 0 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 102 76 101 / 0 10 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 73 101 72 99 / 0 20 30 0
HATCH 73 105 72 102 / 10 30 40 0
COLUMBUS 75 102 74 101 / 10 20 30 0
OROGRANDE 71 100 71 99 / 0 10 10 0
MAYHILL 61 89 59 87 / 0 20 0 30
MESCALERO 61 90 59 88 / 0 30 10 30
TIMBERON 58 87 57 85 / 10 10 10 20
WINSTON 63 92 62 90 / 10 30 30 30
HILLSBORO 70 99 69 97 / 10 30 40 20
SPACEPORT 70 101 69 98 / 10 30 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 94 59 92 / 20 50 40 60
HURLEY 66 96 66 95 / 20 30 40 30
CLIFF 67 99 67 98 / 20 30 30 40
MULE CREEK 65 95 65 93 / 20 30 40 40
FAYWOOD 67 96 67 94 / 10 30 30 20
ANIMAS 70 99 69 98 / 30 40 50 10
HACHITA 69 98 68 98 / 20 40 50 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 98 68 97 / 20 40 50 10
CLOVERDALE 65 91 64 91 / 30 50 60 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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