525
FXUS64 KEPZ 190441
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
- BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH SPANNING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNDER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
LOW END BREEZINESS EACH AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-20 MPH
SUSTAINED. A COLD FRONT IS BARRELING DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND LOOKS TO REACH THE EDGES OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS BY
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE AREA DUE
TO DRY SW FLOW PICKING UP AGAIN BY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT, HOW FAR WEST WILL THE MOISTURE MAKE IT? GFS SAYS
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE HUDSPETH COUNTY/EL PASO COUNTY LINE,
BUT THE NAM PUSHES THIS MOISTURE AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF OUR AREA COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE DRYLINE RACES EASTWARD AGAIN. MUCH OF
THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR EAST, BUT PERHAPS WE COULD GET SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF THAT BOUNDARY IF MOISTURE STAYS IN THE
AREA LONGER THAN FORECAST.
A CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO FORM OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA THURSDAY,
WHICH KEEPS THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE AREA KEEPS LOW END BREEZINESS WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN IN HUDSPETH COUNTY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
SOMEWHAT BETTER AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE CUTOFF LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. SOME BREEZINESS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE AT KELP AND EVEN KLRU BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT SPEEDS WON'T BE AS STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW
EARLIER TODAY (MONDAY). WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20KT
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
TODAY CONTINUES IN CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AS GUSTY WINDS, WHICH
REALLY LASTED ALL NIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS, INCREASES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WIND CONDITIONS SLACKEN A BIT,
BUT EACH AFTERNOON WILL STILL BECOME BREEZY. FIRE CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS. WINDS OVER THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIGHTEN UP A BIT AFTER TODAY, AND WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE MODEST INCREASES IN DEWPOINT/HUMIDITY, AND COULD LEAD TO A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THIS UPTICK IN MOISTURE, ERCS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 8-13% THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 12-18% SAT/SUN.
GILA/BLACK RANGE 8-15% THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 12-20% SAT/SUN.
SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MOUNTAINS 10-18% THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 20-30%
SAT/SUN. VENT RATES EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 54 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 56 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 67 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 80 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 91 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 87 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 92 56 88 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 59 97 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 59 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 56 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 92 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 80 48 76 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 47 77 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 45 75 46 73 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 42 79 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 83 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 82 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 50 87 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 88 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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