776
FXUS64 KEPZ 191730
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1130 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
A VERY SLOW PROGRESSING SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK. CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED FROM
NEAR THE ID/MT BORDER REGION SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES.
THIS RIDGE AXIS FINALLY GETS EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY LATE TUE. THE
CWA WILL REMAIN IN A LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WITH
WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO GET
MORE INTO DEEPER WESTERLIES STARTING TUE. A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE FROM SW TO NE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN MONDAY AND BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY VERY DRY OVER THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS BUT
SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL HELP FOR
TOMORROW. DIDN'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM NBM POPS WITH GENERALLY
ISOLATED OVER THE LOWLANDS AND SCATTERED IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOCUS
WILL BE OVER NE HALF OF AREA. SOME AREAS WILL HAVE 500-1000J/KG
CAPE, BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO EXPECTING MAYBE A COUPLE STRONGER
STORMS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL BUT SEVERE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
AS WE GET INTO TUE AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, THE REGION COMES
UNDER A MORE ZONAL TO WSW FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE DOING THE SAME. IT IS APRIL AND THERE WILL ALSO BE A MEAN
LEE TROUGH/LOW WHICH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DAILY
STARTING WED. AT THIS POINT, FRI LOOKS LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY,
ALTHOUGH NO ONE DAY REALLY STANDS OUT. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS, BUT SOME PATCHY DUST COULD BE PICKED UP. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP INTO THE 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH RH'S FALLING TO
AROUND 10%, SO FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN200-250 THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOT
CONFIDENT IN MUCH RAIN HITTING THE GROUND AND LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING EXPECTED, SO LEFT MENTION(EVEN VCSH) OUT OF ALL
TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE SHOWERS
HOWEVER. WINDS WILL START OUT E TO SE WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS AT ALL
SITES BUT WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO AOB 12KTS EXCEPT NEAR THE
AZ BORDER WHERE 10-20KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP RH'S WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY BUT DRIER AIR STARTS MOVING
INTO THE WEST ON TUE AND AREAWIDE BY WED. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MORESO MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MON/TUE BUT
STARTING WED, EXPECT DAILY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
GENERALLY 15-25G35MPH EACH DAY, SO SOME CRITICAL AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THU/FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY BUT BY TUE WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 80 56 86 / 20 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 46 75 48 80 / 30 50 30 20
LAS CRUCES 45 78 50 83 / 20 20 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 44 78 49 83 / 20 40 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 35 56 38 60 / 30 40 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 77 52 82 / 10 40 10 10
SILVER CITY 44 73 47 77 / 10 30 10 10
DEMING 43 81 48 85 / 20 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 49 79 50 83 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 79 56 86 / 20 20 20 10
DELL CITY 46 78 47 85 / 30 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 50 82 54 88 / 30 40 20 20
LOMA LINDA 45 74 52 79 / 30 30 20 10
FABENS 51 81 55 87 / 20 20 20 10
SANTA TERESA 49 78 53 84 / 20 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 80 55 85 / 20 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 43 79 45 84 / 20 30 10 10
HATCH 47 82 47 87 / 10 30 10 10
COLUMBUS 50 82 54 87 / 20 10 0 10
OROGRANDE 47 78 50 83 / 20 30 20 10
MAYHILL 38 67 44 72 / 30 40 20 20
MESCALERO 36 68 41 72 / 20 50 20 20
TIMBERON 35 65 41 69 / 30 50 20 20
WINSTON 38 70 40 76 / 10 50 10 10
HILLSBORO 47 76 50 82 / 20 40 10 10
SPACEPORT 44 78 46 84 / 20 30 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 41 73 43 77 / 10 40 10 10
HURLEY 41 75 45 80 / 10 30 0 10
CLIFF 44 80 46 81 / 10 30 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 76 45 79 / 10 20 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 75 48 79 / 10 20 10 10
ANIMAS 47 81 49 84 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 79 47 84 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 81 50 84 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 76 52 78 / 10 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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