422
FXUS64 KEPZ 172334
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
434 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 431 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AHEAD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GILA/BLACK RANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN PACIFIC WILL FLATTEN OUT TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO VERY STRONG JET SWEEPING ACROSS THE NW U.S. RESULTING
ZONAL FLOW LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY, RESULTING IN DRY FORECAST
WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS EVERY
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM, VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO HAS
BROUGHT SOME CIRRUS INTO THE AREA BUT IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CWA. THUS DON'T EXPECT
CIRRUS TO EVEN BECOME BROKEN TODAY.
ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH
EVENTUALLY FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORT
WAVE DROPPING INTO THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DIG MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH AND DEVELOP GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY.
THUS EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS WEST OF
DEMING COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME HOPE OF RAIN CHANCES ALL AREAS BY NEXT
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP OUR CEILINGS UNLIMITED TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE SOME GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN A FEW LOW END WIND GUSTS AT KDMN, THE
GUSTS WILL DROP OFF AND THEN WINDS WILL SLOW SOME AFTER SUNSET,
BUT THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST. THOSE WEST WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
LITTLE OR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE CONTINUE UNDER THE DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. VERY WARM (NEAR-RECORD) TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED INTO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENDANT LOWER MIN RHS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 13-20% THROUGH TUESDAY. MOUNTAINS 15-25% THROUGH
TUESDAY. VENT RATES POOR-FAIR THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 41 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 38 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 37 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 33 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 35 54 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 40 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 67 41 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 71 36 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 69 36 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 43 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 32 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 38 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 65 41 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 69 38 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 27 71 31 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 71 33 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 29 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 66 38 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 61 36 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 62 33 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 65 33 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 68 42 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 27 71 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 68 29 69 31 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 68 38 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 71 28 74 26 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 69 23 71 24 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 67 42 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 71 38 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 70 36 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 73 41 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 68 45 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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