896
FXUS64 KEPZ 141742
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1142 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED OVER SW NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
- AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSING NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL FAVOR AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ON SATURDAY, AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER DRY AND WARMER SPELL IS ON THE WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
UPPER HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL BE
SHIFTING WEST OVER THE COMING DAYS AND BRIEFLY SETUP A NICE
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. LATER TODAY, MODELS ALL
INDICATING A SIMILAR RAIN PATTERN TO THE LAST 2 DAYS WHERE MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN AN ARC FROM THE BOOTHEEL NE TOWARDS TCS. THERE
WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE JUST EAST OF THE AREA ALONG LEE TROUGH
WHICH MAY HELP A FEW STORMS DEVELOP OUT THERE AND OUTFLOWS HELP
TRIGGER A FEW STORMS. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE
LOWLANDS WITH SCATTERED IN THE GILA. STORMS WILL DIE OFF AROUND
SUNSET. FOR SATURDAY, THE DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
EAST AND THE SACS WILL GET GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OUTFLOWS
WILL TRIGGER LOWLAND STORMS, MAINLY FOCUSED EAST OF THE RGV.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE ABOUT 500-1000J/KG CAPE BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.
COULD GET A FEW PULSE NEAR SEVERE STORMS, BUT THINK LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION AND PW'S OF
1.1-1.3".
SUNDAY HAS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
VERY SLOW MOVING EASTERLY WAVE MOVING UP THE RGV AND THESE
FEATURES HAVE A TENDENCY TO NOT BE WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS,
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AT LEAST EARLY ON, BUT THE GFS AND IT'S ENSEMBLES ALMOST ALL
SUPPORT DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FEATURE AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE CWA DRY. THE SREF, ICON AND EC ENSEMBLES SHOWING AT
LEAST SCATTERED POPS. NBM POPS I FELT WERE LOW WITH BARELY
MENTIONABLE FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AND SO PUT IN AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED EVERYWHERE WITH SCATTERED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
FEATURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE WEST AND EXPECT SOME MORE
STORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN US AND CENTERED NEAR NM. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO MOST OF THE
AREA AND WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE FAR WEST/GILA
REGION. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE WARMING INTO WED AND THU. YESTERDAY, THE GFS GOING INTO
LATE WED AND THU WAS BRINGING A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE IT'S ENSEMBLE
MEAN SUPPORTED THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. EC WAS SIMILAR TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS. NOW THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A COMPROMISE WITH A
QUICKER, WEAKER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND THE AREA ENDS UP ON THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS AGAIN AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE COOL ON THE NBM AS H85 TEMPS WARM
INTO THE 33-35C RANGE FOR THE RGV AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGHS
APPROACHING 105 AROUND KELP, BUT TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD IMPACT HIGHS AND WE CAN MOVE UP AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED 3-5SM -TSRA BKN050-070 WITH WIND
GUSTS OVER 30KTS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FROM THE NM BOOTHEEL
NORTHEAST TOWARDS KTCS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO END BY SUNSET. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFF OUTFLOWS AND MOVE
INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AOB 12KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS
FOCUSED OUT WEST. FOR SATURDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO PUSH
IN FROM THE EAST AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
SACS WITH STORMS MOVING ONTO THE LOWLANDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS AREAWIDE AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES NW UP THE RGV.
RH'S THROUGH SUN WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S+. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 FOR THE LOWLANDS BY WED WITH RH'S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 97 72 97 / 10 20 40 20
SIERRA BLANCA 66 92 65 92 / 30 30 20 20
LAS CRUCES 68 94 67 96 / 10 10 30 20
ALAMOGORDO 69 95 69 95 / 10 20 20 40
CLOUDCROFT 52 71 51 71 / 10 60 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 94 70 95 / 20 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 62 88 62 89 / 10 10 10 40
DEMING 67 95 68 96 / 10 10 20 20
LORDSBURG 67 94 68 95 / 10 0 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 97 71 97 / 10 20 40 20
DELL CITY 70 97 69 97 / 30 30 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 72 98 73 99 / 40 30 20 20
LOMA LINDA 67 90 67 90 / 10 30 40 20
FABENS 71 97 72 98 / 20 20 30 20
SANTA TERESA 71 96 70 95 / 10 10 40 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 96 72 96 / 10 20 30 20
JORNADA RANGE 67 93 69 96 / 10 20 20 30
HATCH 68 97 69 99 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 72 97 72 97 / 20 10 30 10
OROGRANDE 68 94 67 94 / 10 20 20 20
MAYHILL 57 83 56 83 / 10 80 30 40
MESCALERO 56 83 56 82 / 10 60 20 60
TIMBERON 54 81 54 81 / 10 50 20 40
WINSTON 57 86 59 86 / 20 20 10 40
HILLSBORO 64 93 66 94 / 20 20 10 30
SPACEPORT 66 95 67 95 / 20 10 10 30
LAKE ROBERTS 55 88 57 88 / 20 10 10 60
HURLEY 63 91 63 92 / 10 10 10 40
CLIFF 60 95 65 95 / 10 0 10 40
MULE CREEK 56 90 63 92 / 10 0 10 30
FAYWOOD 64 91 65 91 / 10 10 10 40
ANIMAS 67 94 68 96 / 10 10 10 10
HACHITA 67 94 68 95 / 10 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 93 67 94 / 20 20 20 10
CLOVERDALE 63 88 64 90 / 10 20 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page