763
FXUS64 KEPZ 221711
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1011 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS;
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS MID-WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER EIGHTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
LONG WAVE UL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS OVER TOPPING IT. AN
EASTERLY PUSH DID ARRIVE EARLIER THIS MORNING BRINGING BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS TO AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE
ISN'T ANY COLD AIR WITH THIS PUSH, AND HIGHS TODAY WILL ACTUALLY
BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU FEEL ABOUT
TODAY'S WEATHER, WE CAN ALL CELEBRATE USA'S WIN OVER CANADA
THOUGH. USA USA USA!
WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE AND FLOW SWITCHING TO WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY FOR MONDAY,
LEVELING OFF TOWARD WEDNESDAY. A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL FORM
BY TUESDAY, FOSTERING BREEZY WINDS. THIS LEE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER
FOR WEDNESDAY AS A S/W TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NM AND CO.
THIS WILL BE OUR BREEZIEST DAY. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS WE WILL NOT
NEED ANY WIND HEADLINES, BUT THE DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR SOME
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) WILL BE
RATHER TRANQUIL AND WARM. TEMPERATURES DO FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMING TREND WILL
RESUME AFTERWARD WITH MID 80S COMMON IN THE LOWLANDS BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BKN-OVC250, EVENTUALLY CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, DEPENDING ON
SITE. SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
WE WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT BELOW ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MIN RH
VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE TEENS. EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MIN RH VALUES APPROACH 10%.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MODESTLY BREEZY WINDS, BUT NO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS WINDS TOP OUT BETWEEN
20 AND 25 MPH WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS
WITH 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVE ERCS IN THE 50TH PERCENTILE, MARGINALLY
CRITICAL RH VALUES, AND WINDS JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, I
WILL ABSTAIN FROM ANY FIRE HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
VENTING CATEGORY WILL BE GOOD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TODAY WITH FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY. VENTING WILL BE POOR
ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. BY TUESDAY, VENTING
WILL IMPROVE TO THE GOOD TO VERY GOOD CATEGORY WITH VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTING ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 37 69 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 31 65 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 65 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 30 65 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 25 49 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 66 38 79 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 33 62 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 33 68 36 80 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 36 67 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 39 68 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 28 66 33 78 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 35 71 39 82 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 62 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 35 70 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 34 66 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 66 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 29 66 34 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 68 33 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 35 68 39 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 65 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 27 62 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 60 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 55 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 24 61 30 74 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 33 65 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 28 65 33 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 65 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 64 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 30 70 33 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 30 68 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 62 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 33 68 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 33 66 36 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 33 67 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 65 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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