885
FXUS64 KEPZ 072339
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
539 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S.
- SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
GILA REGION TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN FAR WEST
TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- SOME INCREASING MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND THE
FORECAST COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS WELL TO OUR NORTH, WHICH IS A BIT UNUSUAL
FOR OCTOBER, BUT THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES TO NOTE IN FOR THE
FORECAST. FIRST IS A NW-SE ORIENTATED RIDGE THAT RUNS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA INTO NORTHERN BAJA AND SONORA INTO THE REST OF
MEXICO, PLACING US WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS ALSO A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER CO. THEN, YOU OF COURSE HAVE ISAIAS (NOT GOING TO
BE A DIRECT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER), RACHEL, AND TWENTY-E.
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER CO WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW. IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, CHANCES
WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE GILA WITH STORMS STRUGGLING TO MAKE
INTO THE LOWLANDS. THE NAM NEST AND HRRR SHOW WEAK SHOWERS FORMING
OVER MAINLY HUDSPETH TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING, AND THEN WE
RETURN TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WITH
ONE OR TWO CELLS MAKING IT INTO THE LOWLANDS TOMORROW. ANY SHOWER
OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WE FIND OURSELVES IN A
SOMEWHAT NONDESCRIPT PATTERN. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A WEAK
S/W CROSS OVER NM FRIDAY, BUT NEITHER MODEL PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP/QPF. WE THEN FILL IN WITH A RIDGE ON SATURDAY WITH A
SUBTROPICAL TAP DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA
COAST (PARTIALLY THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL). THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE GILA AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ARIZONA
BORDER.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH-RACHEL HYBRID (NOT TECHNICALLY
SCIENTIFICALLY CORRECT WORDING, BUT IT WORKS) WILL BEGIN LIFTING
INTO THE CONUS, SPREADING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR
NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS WILL BE OVER AZ, POSSIBLY CLIPPING
FAR WEST NM. THE WILD CARD, JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST, IS WHAT WILL
BECOME OF NOW TD TWENTY-E. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 6Z GFS BRING ITS
REMNANTS DIRECTLY TO US. THE 12Z GFS IS FALLING IN LINE WITH THE
6Z RUN, MORE OR LESS. NEVERTHELESS, THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT
FAVORING THIS SOLUTION, SO AT THIS POINT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO. IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED THOUGH!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND MOSTLY VRB
WINDS THROUGH AM, SHIFTING E-SE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 8KTS.
CONVECTION NW OF KDMN SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY IN PERIOD WITH MAINLY
SKC OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP INTO
THE 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO POOR TO FAIR
VENTING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH VENTING WILL IMPROVE SOME (FAIR TO
GOOD) FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
MODEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE FOCUS ON
MOUNTAINS THOUGH ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. ANY
SHOWER OR STORM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 86 64 84 / 20 20 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 80 58 80 / 20 20 0 0
LAS CRUCES 61 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 80 58 81 / 20 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 59 42 58 / 10 20 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 80 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 76 54 75 / 20 20 20 0
DEMING 60 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 61 84 62 83 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 85 65 84 / 20 20 0 0
DELL CITY 61 83 60 83 / 20 20 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 66 89 64 88 / 20 20 0 0
LOMA LINDA 60 77 59 77 / 20 20 0 0
FABENS 65 87 64 86 / 20 20 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 84 63 83 / 20 20 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 84 63 83 / 20 20 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 60 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 60 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 86 63 85 / 0 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 82 59 81 / 20 20 0 0
MAYHILL 50 70 48 70 / 0 20 0 0
MESCALERO 50 71 48 70 / 10 20 0 10
TIMBERON 49 67 48 67 / 0 10 0 0
WINSTON 51 73 50 72 / 10 20 20 0
HILLSBORO 59 80 58 79 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 58 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 76 48 73 / 20 20 20 0
HURLEY 55 79 55 78 / 20 20 20 0
CLIFF 54 84 55 83 / 20 20 20 0
MULE CREEK 51 81 53 79 / 20 20 20 0
FAYWOOD 57 78 57 77 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 60 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 59 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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