737  
FXUS64 KEPZ 212234  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
334 PM MST MON JAN 21 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA  
TONIGHT, WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH  
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWLAND AREAS EAST OF AREA MOUNTAIN  
RANGES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 20 TO 25  
DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY  
EXPECTED TO BE STUCK IN THE UPPER-40S AND LOWER-50S IN THE  
LOWLANDS, AND THE UPPER-20S AND 30S IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A  
WEAK SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS  
TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AN INCH OR TWO  
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 6,000 FEET. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING FRIGID  
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS  
AND 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD  
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES  
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH THEY  
HAVE BEEN LAGGING OVER THE EL PASO AREA TO SOME DEGREE. THE  
STRONGEST GUSTS SO FAR TODAY, NOT COUNTING THE 80 MPH AT SAN  
AUGUSTIN PASS, HAVE BEEN IN THE 60 TO 65 MPH RANGE AT WSMR HQ ON  
THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE ORGAN MOUNTAINS. INTERESTINGLY, GUSTS IN  
NORTHEAST EL PASO HAVE ONLY BEEN UP TO 40 MPH AT TOM LEA  
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.  
 
LACK OF OBS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA REGION AND LESS-  
THAN-IDEAL SITING IN MOST OF THE SACRAMENTOS LEAVES US WONDERING  
HOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS FARING, BUT EARLIER GUSTS TO 62 KNOTS  
AT KSRR SUGGEST IT'S BEST TO KEEP IT GOING, EVEN AS GUSTS AT  
SUNSPOT HAVE BEEN A DISAPPOINTING 46 MPH SO FAR.  
 
A PLUME OF DUST CAN BE SEEN ON KEPZ REFLECTIVITY AND (JUST  
BARELY) ON GOES-16 VISIBLE IMAGERY HEADING INTO SANTA TERESA FROM  
A VERY SMALL SOURCE REGION IN CHIHUAHUA JUST EAST OF THE NEW  
MEXICO BOOTHEEL. THE VIEW OUTSIDE OUR WEST WINDOW CONFIRMS THIS.  
HOWEVER, VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE AT  
WORST.  
 
UNFORTUNATELY, NMDOT CAMERAS AND RWIS STATIONS ON LORDSBURG PLAYA  
HAVE BEEN OUT OF SERVICE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS, BUT A RECENT CALL TO  
NM STATE POLICE REVEALED THERE HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT ROAD  
CLOSURES ON I-10 ON THE PLAYA. THE AREA IS FAR TOO SMALL TO DETECT  
ON SATELLITE, AND WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON, A DUST STORM WARNING (POLYGON)  
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SEEMED THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.  
 
THE MAIN TROUGH DOESN'T LOOK TO PASS THE AREA UNTIL TOMORROW  
MORNING, AND ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 800-700  
MB LAYER LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT ELP  
HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 8-9K FEET AFTER  
03Z, WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG GUSTS TO PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT  
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLIN AND ORGAN MOUNTAINS. WIND  
ADVISORIES WILL EXTENDED IN THESE AREAS SHORTLY.  
 
MIN TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT...RAMPED UP TEMPS ALONG  
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS AND ORGANS WITH THE EXPECTED  
WINDS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SHARP CONTRASTS BETWEEN ELP AND OTHER  
AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER VALLEY.  
 
COOLER NW TO N WINDS WILL RESULT IN A 20 TO 25 DEGREE DROP IN  
TEMPERATURES (COMPARING MAXT TODAY TO TOMORROW). A WEAK SURFACE  
TROUGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME WIDELY  
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (1  
TO 2 INCHES) POSSIBLE ABOVE 6,000 FEET.  
 
LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP  
QUICKLY, WITH MIN TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER-10S AND  
20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND EVEN COOLER IN THE SACRAMENTOS AND  
GILA. THURSDAY MORNING MINS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER, BUT STILL  
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.  
 
BROADLY SPEAKING, WE'LL BE IN A DRY NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REST  
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO  
THE UPPER-50S (LOWLANDS) BY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING  
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY WILL DROP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT  
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AND BACKDOOR  
FRONT WILL PEEL A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OFF FOR SATURDAY, BUT NEAR-  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN BY SUNDAY (NOTE: "NORMALS" APPROACH  
60 BY EARLY NEXT WEEK!)  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z
 
 
P6SM FEW050-070 FEW-SCT200-250 THROUGH 12Z THEN FEW-SCT040-060  
SCT-BKN100-120. WINDS WILL START OUT GUSTY FROM THE SW TO W AT 15-  
25G35KTS AND SLOWLY DECREASE BY 03Z TO 10-20G30KTS AND SHIFT MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY EXCEPT AT KELP WHERE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIE  
DOWN UNTIL AROUND 12Z. WINDS AFTER 12Z WILL GRADUALLY BE SHIFTING  
AROUND TO THE NW TO N AT 10-20KTS. A FEW 1-3SM -SHSN BKN010-020  
POSSIBLE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN A  
BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES.  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 20 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE  
SYSTEM BRINGING THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL  
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY UNDER A DRY NORTH  
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL MAINLY BE  
IN THE 20S INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD  
AGAIN TUESDAY, BUT AS LIGHTER WINDS RETURN POOR TO FAIR RATES ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 43 52 25 52 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 37 50 24 49 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 36 52 24 52 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 32 47 23 48 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 18 28 11 34 / 0 30 10 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 49 24 49 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 28 44 21 49 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 31 52 22 53 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 29 50 22 52 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 51 26 51 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 34 53 19 53 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 39 54 24 54 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 34 48 24 47 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 38 53 24 53 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 35 52 22 50 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 50 25 51 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 31 50 16 51 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 32 52 22 53 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 35 52 23 53 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 33 48 22 50 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 27 37 15 46 / 0 20 10 0  
MESCALERO 24 36 14 42 / 0 20 10 0  
TIMBERON 22 38 12 41 / 0 30 10 0  
WINSTON 24 44 14 48 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 28 48 20 51 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 30 48 19 50 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 20 43 14 50 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 27 46 20 49 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 24 49 17 52 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 24 46 20 50 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 29 47 22 49 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 31 50 24 53 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 29 50 19 52 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 30 50 19 51 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 30 47 21 51 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401-404>413-  
417.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ402-403-  
414>416.  
 
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.  
 

 
 

 
 
25-HARDIMAN / 26-GRZYWACZ  
 
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