573
FXUS64 KEPZ 271213
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
613 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, RUNNING 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 107 EACH
AFTERNOON, POSING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- SOME MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA AND SONORA WILL WORK INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BRING A ONE-DAY
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
AND WILL SIT THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF LATE JULY.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. GFS
500-MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES SUGGEST THIS HIGH IS 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN IS TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MONSOON. THE PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN, AS ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY RECYCLED
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE/TERRAIN FORCING PRODUCING
MEAGER INSTABILITY. THE MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE BROAD AND DIFFUSE,
BUT GENERALLY FAVOR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE JUST OVER AN INCH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO,
WITH DRIER AIR FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
FOR MONDAY, LACK OF MOISTURE AND NO FORCING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A "DOWN" DAY OF RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED (10-20% COVERAGE)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE GILA WILDERNESS AND NM BOOTHEEL. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL STAY
DRY, INCLUDING NEARLY ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AS STORM MOTIONS
REMAIN VERY SLOW IF NOT STATIONARY AND CAPABLE OF 1-2 INCH/HOUR
RAINFALL RATES.
THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE DESERT LOWLAND WILL BE HOT TEMPERATURES.
SUFFOCATING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE VERY HOT AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL RUN
8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WHICH MEANS LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE 102 TO 106 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN BOTH TIME
AND AREA LATER THIS WEEK.
MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH OR ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH FOR
TUESDAY ONWARD WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY APPRECIABLE
DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN NM HIGH ELEVATIONS. GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE IN A
SLIGHT RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEK
OF AUGUST, WHICH IS STILL A POOR WEATHER PATTERN FOR RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR NIL AT MOST TAF SITES. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK RANGE WEST OF TCS IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
COULD BRING BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST OUTFLOW WINDS TO TCS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 610 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY SUPPRESSED AND
MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. ONE
EXCEPTION IS TUESDAY, WHEN A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ARIZONA AND SONORA WILL BOOST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN SW NEW
MEXICO. FROM WEDNESDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECLINE,
DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS, BUT REMAINING
IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 106 79 104 / 10 0 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 101 70 99 / 0 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 73 104 73 102 / 10 10 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 77 103 75 103 / 0 10 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 58 79 56 78 / 0 30 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 76 103 75 101 / 10 10 40 10
SILVER CITY 67 94 66 94 / 10 50 30 40
DEMING 73 104 72 102 / 10 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 73 100 72 100 / 20 20 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 104 80 103 / 10 0 20 0
DELL CITY 74 104 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 107 77 106 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 72 98 71 97 / 10 10 10 0
FABENS 78 106 77 104 / 10 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 76 103 76 102 / 10 0 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 105 79 103 / 10 10 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 76 104 75 102 / 10 10 40 0
HATCH 76 106 75 104 / 10 10 30 0
COLUMBUS 78 105 77 103 / 10 10 30 0
OROGRANDE 75 103 74 101 / 0 0 20 0
MAYHILL 63 91 62 89 / 0 20 10 0
MESCALERO 63 91 61 90 / 0 30 20 10
TIMBERON 60 89 59 88 / 0 20 10 10
WINSTON 66 94 64 92 / 20 40 40 40
HILLSBORO 73 100 72 99 / 10 30 30 10
SPACEPORT 73 103 72 101 / 10 10 40 0
LAKE ROBERTS 62 95 61 94 / 20 60 30 60
HURLEY 69 98 68 97 / 10 40 30 20
CLIFF 69 100 68 99 / 10 40 30 40
MULE CREEK 67 96 66 95 / 20 40 30 50
FAYWOOD 70 98 69 97 / 10 50 30 20
ANIMAS 71 99 72 100 / 30 10 30 10
HACHITA 72 100 72 100 / 20 20 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 99 71 99 / 40 20 40 10
CLOVERDALE 64 92 66 93 / 40 20 30 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA
VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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