598
FXUS64 KEPZ 250058
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
558 PM MST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 445 PM MST WED DEC 24 2025
- RECORD WARMTH THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID SEVENTIES.
- INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WITH A ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
- A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
UPPER HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE
DRIFTING TOWARDS SOUTH TX TODAY, AS A REGIME OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE BORDERLAND. WHILE THE HIGH MAY BE MOVING OUT OF
SIGHT, STOUT PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WHILE THIS
SKY COVER WILL HELP REDUCE SOLAR RADIATION, IT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMTH, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEK'S END. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE WILL SPARK ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW
ACROSS THE GILA, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOMINAL.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OSCILLATE IN THE PACIFIC BEFORE MOVING
INLAND SATURDAY. SPLITTING OFF INTO TWO DIFFERENT LOBES, ONE LOW
SETS ITS SIGHT ON THE US/CAN BORDER, WHILE A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY
DRAGS ITSELF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AS WE MOVE INTO
SUNDAY, WITH THE SECOND PIECE OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING A WIDE ZONE
OF DEFORMATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE
NORTHERN LOW KICKS OFF A BLUSTERY BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD,
BARRELING TOWARD THE BORDERLAND FOR ARRIVAL LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
EXTRA LIFT FROM THE FROPA WILL MAKE USE OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
LEADING TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CWA. A LAYER OF
WARM AIR ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AMONGST SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE
THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THIS
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, GIVEN GFS BIASES REGARDING THESE
PARTICULAR TYPES OF SYSTEMS. CERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES AND
SUBSEQUENT PTYPES WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP AS MORE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE COMES INTO PLAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST WED DEC 24 2025
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING INTO DMN AFTER 06Z. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
MANAGE TO REACH THE GROUND AT DMN BETWEEN 06-12Z, BUT CEILINGS
WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE 9000 FEET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL, TRENDING TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MST WED DEC 24 2025
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS
AND INCREASED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. MINRH WILL STAY ABOVE 20
PERCENT NEARLY ALL ZONES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FAVOR THE GILA, BUT A
WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
A BACK AND SIDE DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE BORDERLAND LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, CAUSING AN EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT, WITH MORE APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 76 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 74 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 72 42 70 / 0 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 73 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 52 37 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 72 41 69 / 10 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 65 41 65 / 30 20 0 0
DEMING 45 75 40 73 / 10 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 70 39 70 / 30 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 74 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 40 76 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 46 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 69 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 46 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 73 42 71 / 0 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 74 50 73 / 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 73 30 71 / 0 10 0 0
HATCH 45 76 40 74 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 48 76 44 73 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 45 72 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 40 63 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 38 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 33 65 27 65 / 10 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 72 42 70 / 10 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 73 39 70 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 64 29 63 / 30 20 0 0
HURLEY 43 68 39 68 / 20 20 0 0
CLIFF 34 71 28 70 / 30 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 32 66 29 65 / 30 30 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 68 42 67 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 44 73 41 73 / 20 20 0 0
HACHITA 43 73 38 73 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 74 41 75 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 67 45 67 / 20 20 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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