635
FXUS64 KEPZ 181129
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
529 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- A SHARP DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY, AND HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SEEP IN.
- HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS WILL GET A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
WITH MINIMAL CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.
- THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE RELIABLE AND
WIDESPREAD FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
NOT TERRIBLY ACTIVE TODAY, WITH THE GILA PARTICULARLY FALLING
SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS. MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WAS ENOUGH TO FLARE UP
CONVECTION A BIT IN SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY, WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM NEAR ESPERANZA AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANKS OF THE
QUITMAN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN. AND AGAIN,
PARTS OF EAST EL PASO RECEIVED MODERATE RAIN, THOUGH MOSTLY INSIDE
OF LOOP-375 THIS TIME AROUND, AND SHORT-LIVED.
GOING FORWARD, THE MID-LEVEL UPPER LOW REMNANTS, NOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH, WILL MOVE OR PERHAPS REORGANIZE FURTHER TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT (IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MCS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH,
WITH WARM AND DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY EVEN MIX-OUT INTO THE 30S.
A LITTLE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION COULD OCCUR
IN THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN (GILA, SACRAMENTOS), WITH AN ISOLATED
EVENING STORM DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL SIERRA COUNTY OR THE NORTHERN
TULAROSA BASIN. ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THERE WILL BE VERY HOSTILE
TERRAIN.
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MORE ACTIVE OVER THE GILA AGAIN, LIKELY
SPREADING INTO THE FAR SW NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS IN THE EVENING, AND
A FEW STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND FAR WEST TEXAS...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW.
AND IT DOESN'T GET MUCH BETTER FROM THERE, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN NM OR OCCASIONALLY DRIFTING
TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND A WARM CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORY
LIMITING CONVECTION CHANCES OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO NE MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK WILL
GET DEFLECTED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CRAWL BACK UP
INTO THE 100-103 RANGE IN MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, AND STAY THERE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WE WILL HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. OUR
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THEN IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WE WILL OF LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS, BEFORE THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS RETURN FOR TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED
TODAY, WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SOME HIGH AND MID CEILINGS IN
THE GILA REGION WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TODAY TO THE GILA REGION WITH
MIN RH'S IN THE LOWLANDS NEAR 20% AND IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR 30%,
BUT AFTER TODAY, WE WILL HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS. MIN RH'S FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN
THE LOWLANDS TO THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL STAY WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THIS WEEK. WE WILL SEE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR RAIN EACH AFTERNOON AFTER TODAY MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS. VENT
RATES WILL BE GOOD TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 97 67 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 99 69 101 / 0 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 98 72 99 / 0 20 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 52 76 54 76 / 10 40 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 99 72 99 / 0 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 64 91 64 92 / 0 30 20 50
DEMING 69 100 70 102 / 0 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 71 98 71 99 / 0 20 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 100 71 101 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 103 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 93 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 71 100 72 103 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 98 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 100 75 102 / 0 10 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 70 99 72 100 / 0 10 0 10
HATCH 70 102 72 104 / 0 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 97 70 100 / 0 10 0 10
MAYHILL 57 89 60 88 / 0 30 20 30
MESCALERO 57 87 58 88 / 20 40 20 50
TIMBERON 55 85 57 86 / 0 20 10 20
WINSTON 60 90 62 91 / 0 20 20 30
HILLSBORO 67 98 69 98 / 0 20 20 10
SPACEPORT 68 99 70 99 / 0 20 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 90 59 91 / 0 40 20 70
HURLEY 64 94 65 96 / 0 20 20 30
CLIFF 67 98 67 99 / 10 30 20 50
MULE CREEK 66 94 66 95 / 20 60 30 60
FAYWOOD 66 94 67 96 / 0 20 10 10
ANIMAS 70 99 71 100 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 69 97 70 99 / 0 10 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 97 69 99 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 65 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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