092
FXUS64 KEPZ 110520
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ALONG EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES, INCLUDING NORTHEAST EL PASO,
WITH SOME GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMBING TOWARD RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND.
- SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NOT TOO
TERRIBLE FOR MARCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
OUR UPPER LOW HAS WEAKENED INTO AN OPEN WAVE, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND. CLEARING SKIES ARE IN ITS WAKE, WITH
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT, PREVENTING FOG
FORMATION IN THE AREAS THAT DID MANAGE TO GET WETTING RAINFALL.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL RETURN TO
EAST SLOPE AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT, INCLUDING NE EL PASO, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE, DIMINISHING BEFORE DAWN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN REBOUNDING WEDNESDAY DESPITE LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW PERSISTING. A WEAK BACKDOOR PUSH WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO
THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING THURSDAY. BASICALLY HIGHS WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT THE
SAME (MID-70S LOWLANDS), THEN JUMP UP INTO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH IS ALWAYS WELCOME
IN MARCH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING
AN UPTICK IN WESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NOTHING
EXTREME (GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS).
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OUR WARMING TREND ON MONDAY, BUT THERE'S A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIX HERE AS TO HOW CLOSE TO NORMAL OUR TEMPS
WILL GO. LONGER RANGE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A BUILDING RIDGE, WHICH
WOULD ACCELERATE OUR WARMING TREND LATER NEXT WEEK IF IT COMES TO
PASS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW AWW CRITERIA AT ELP AS EXPECTED, BUT
WE'RE STILL EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN WINDS AFTER ABOUT 06Z AS A NW
TO SE-ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, CENTERED AROUND 800 MB.
THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LLWS IN OTHER PLACES, AND FOR
ELP, WE'LL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT, AND WITH A WIND TOO STEADY FOR FOG FORMATION.
LIGHTER NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
EASTERLIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY LEADING TO LOW FIRE DANGER. MOUNTAIN
FORESTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL SEE NEW RAIN AMOUNTS
0.25-0.50". BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM QUICKLY BACK TOWARD RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON RH
FALLS BACK DOWN TO 8-15% BY FRIDAY AS WEST FLOW RESUMES. NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH VERY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. WE WILL NEAR RED
FLAG CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 49 77 48 76 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 43 72 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 42 74 41 75 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 41 75 38 73 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 32 54 32 51 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 75 46 75 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 39 69 41 72 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 43 77 42 78 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 76 47 74 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 39 74 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 46 79 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 43 69 38 70 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 47 78 48 78 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 75 46 74 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 77 46 76 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 40 76 32 75 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 42 79 38 78 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 48 77 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 42 74 40 73 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 63 29 66 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 35 65 32 62 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 36 62 28 59 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 68 34 73 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 74 43 74 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 39 74 38 76 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 35 69 23 71 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 72 38 72 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 37 75 32 78 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 37 71 25 73 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 73 41 72 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 41 72 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 72 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 72 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 67 43 73 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page