778
FXUS64 KEPZ 281732
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1032 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
- RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES, AVERAGING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER, WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT STILL SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
- NEXT WEEK, CONTINUED FAIR, DRY, AND WARM. TEMPERATURES NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEKEND, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO
PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT.
- FIRE DANGER INCREASES NEXT WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 846 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL PARKED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION AND
WILL STAY PUT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN, MIGRATING SLOWLY OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY. THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WILL BE
QUITE WARM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
EL PASO WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 15-24 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH. OVER THE WEEKEND, EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS.
WINDS START TO PICK UP MONDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL CONTINUE TO
HAVE BREEZY AFTERNOONS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, EXCEPT FOR
WEDNESDAY. NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY CRAZY WINDY AND DUSTY DAYS
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BUT RATHER SLIGHTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
OF AROUND 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED. BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE NEAR LOCAL
DUST SOURCES BUT NOT WIDELY EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALMOST EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT "COOLER" THAN WHAT WE'LL SEE THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 846 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 8-12 MPH GENERALLY
OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS PICK UP STARTING MONDAY AND CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHERE LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 MPH. A
COUPLE OF PASSING STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING THESE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY TO WHAT
WE'RE EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS WILL BE CRITICAL ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH VALUES DIPPING
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (7-10%) SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR
CRITICAL MIN RHS IN THE MOUNTAINS (15-20%). VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT EVERY DAY OF THE WORK WEEK EXCEPT WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 54 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 86 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 84 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 63 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 48 89 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 83 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 45 88 45 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 92 53 94 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 52 90 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 50 87 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 86 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 45 89 46 88 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 89 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 84 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 78 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 43 74 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 72 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 40 79 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 51 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 85 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 77 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 81 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 43 84 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 85 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 84 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 87 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 81 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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