692
FXUS64 KEPZ 260505
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1005 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 852 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
- TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES WILL LIKELY SET A COUPLE NEW
DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
- WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG ALTHOUGH SOME BREEZINESS IS
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT WEEK WILL BE NOT AS WARM AS THIS WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 852 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
WE SET A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN EL PASO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
LOOKS LIKE MORE RECORDS WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. EL PASO
MAY RECORD IT'S WARMEST FEBRUARY HIGH TEMPERATURE (CURRENTLY 86
DEGREES) ON SATURDAY. THE REASON FOR ALL THIS WARM WEATHER IS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE IS GIVING US OUR DRY
AND WARM WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHICH IS NEAR RECORD
HIGH VALUES FOR MANY LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. THERE AREN'T ANY STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW ALOFT SO WINDS, THOUGH OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS, WON'T BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.
FOR THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, IT
WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY WEATHER, BUT IT WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
RECORD HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SATURDAY'S HIGHS
COULD BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED FOR ANY DATE IN
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
FOR NEXT MONDAY, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE COOLER AIR (BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE) SLIP INTO THE REGION. THEN FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
WE WILL SEE A PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE TROUGHS IS STILL IN DOUBT, BUT THEY WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION (MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS) ALONG WITH SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY WINDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 852 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, WE WILL SEE
LESS WINDS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTY WINDS, BUT GENERALLY
WE WILL SEE LESS WINDS THAN WE SAW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OFF AND ON HIGH CEILINGS OF SCT-BKN250 FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OUR VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY (AND BEYOND)
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER RH'S EXPECTED OVER THE
COMING DAYS WHICH WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT THE SMALLER FUELS. ERC
PERCENTILES WILL BE GOING UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY, ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING SOME ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS BUT LIKELY NOT
RESULTING IN ANY HIGHLIGHTS. THERE WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
TO THE NORTH TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING A MORE
IMPACTFUL WIND EVENT AND INCREASED FIRE DANGERS. VENT RATES OVER
THE COMING DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 80 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 47 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 58 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 47 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 45 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 83 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 86 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 51 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 84 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 46 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 68 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 68 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 41 75 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 50 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 45 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 40 75 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 42 81 43 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 76 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 79 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 48 81 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 78 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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