799
FXUS64 KEPZ 292340
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
540 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
- THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. DRY
AIR, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
OVERNIGHT COOLING. MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO SEE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 30S, WITH MANY NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK.
- THURSDAY BEGINS A WARMING TREND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL AND
ABOVE, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
IF YOU'VE BEEN OUTSIDE, YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED IT IS QUITE A BIT
COOLER THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN. THAT'S BECAUSE A COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR TO FOSTER OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 30S FOR
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WITH EL PASO DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S.
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS THAT WILL SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES, BUT ISOLATED AREAS OF LUNA AND
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK TOO. FORECAST RADIATIONAL COOLING IS TRICKY AND DIFFICULT,
SO DEFINITELY SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR
THOSE TWO COUNTIES AND THUS A MISSED WARNING.
TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
CLOSE TO NORMAL. FRIDAY WARMS FURTHER AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. A
QUICK MOVING S/W TROUGH WILL CROSS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE BREEZES
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EAST SLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL ALSO
DROP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY. AFTERWARDS AN UL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SW WITH WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AOB 6KTS
PERSIST MAINLY FROM E-SE WITH SOME VARIABILITY. MAINLY SKC
EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY TODAY AND CHILLY MORNING TOMORROW, WE
WILL BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
EACH AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE MIN RH VALUES NEAR 15%. WINDS WILL STAY
BELOW ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT FRIDAY WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY BUT BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. VENTING WILL BE POOR TO FAIR EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT
FOR FRIDAY WHEN THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL BRING VENT
CATEGORIES TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 51 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 42 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 71 44 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 44 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 56 35 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 45 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 71 45 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 76 43 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 74 46 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 51 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 74 39 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 47 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 66 47 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 74 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 46 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 42 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 75 41 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 76 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 43 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 69 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 66 37 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 63 35 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 70 36 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 74 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 71 40 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 74 38 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 73 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 77 42 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 74 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 71 44 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 76 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 75 44 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 78 48 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 74 50 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO
MESA-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page