578
FXUS64 KEPZ 272330
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, RUNNING
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS 100 TO 107 EACH
AFTERNOON, POSING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- SOME MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA AND SONORA WILL WORK INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BRING A ONE-DAY
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BROADLY OVER NORTHERN
NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER HIGH
BEGINS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY AND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS (GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO
MTNS) AND WESTERN LOCATIONS BORDERING ARIZONA. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE
IT COULD HAVE AN UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWESTERN NM
TUESDAY EVENING. CAMS ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO WHICH WILL PUSH IN BETTER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS PUSH OF
MOISTURE MAY HELP SET THE STAGE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN
THIS AREA WILL BE AROUND 30-35KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED CELLS. WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD WE KEEP OUR STORM CHANCES
WITH A FOCUS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, THE AREA WILL REMAIN HOT THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL LOWLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING LAS
CRUCES, HATCH, THE EL PASO METRO, AND THE LOWER VALLEY TODAY AND
TOMORROW. TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIALLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE OR WILL REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (MAX TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105F)
DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE, SO PLEASE TAKE
THE HEAT SERIOUSLY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS SW NM NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
FOR KDMN THROUGH 03Z. SKIES FEW-SCT100, BKN200 THIS EVENING,
BECOMING SCT150 OVERNIGHT AS TS DIMINISHES. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM
DISTANT OUTFLOWS LEADING TO 250-290 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WILL LIKELY NEED MENTION OF TS FOR S NM SITES TUESDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
GENERALLY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. MIN RHS
ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL EACH
DAY WITH PERCENTAGES OF AROUND 13-20% EACH AFTERNOON. AREA
MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE 25-40%. STORM CHANCES EXIST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN
UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE GILA REGION AND LOWLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWLAND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS, MOUNTAIN AREAS
WITH HIGHS OF 75F TO 90F.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 105 79 104 / 10 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 101 70 99 / 0 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 73 103 72 102 / 10 0 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 77 103 74 102 / 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 58 80 56 78 / 10 20 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 76 102 74 101 / 10 10 50 0
SILVER CITY 68 95 66 94 / 10 50 50 30
DEMING 73 104 72 103 / 10 10 20 10
LORDSBURG 73 100 72 100 / 10 10 40 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 104 79 103 / 10 0 10 0
DELL CITY 74 104 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 107 77 107 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 72 98 71 96 / 10 0 10 0
FABENS 77 105 77 104 / 10 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 76 102 75 102 / 10 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 104 79 103 / 10 0 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 76 104 75 102 / 10 0 30 0
HATCH 76 106 74 105 / 10 10 30 0
COLUMBUS 78 104 77 104 / 10 10 30 0
OROGRANDE 74 103 73 101 / 10 0 10 0
MAYHILL 63 92 61 89 / 10 10 10 0
MESCALERO 63 91 60 90 / 10 20 10 10
TIMBERON 60 89 59 89 / 10 10 10 0
WINSTON 66 93 64 92 / 10 40 40 30
HILLSBORO 73 100 72 99 / 10 20 40 10
SPACEPORT 73 102 72 101 / 10 10 40 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 95 60 94 / 10 60 50 60
HURLEY 69 98 67 97 / 10 50 40 20
CLIFF 69 100 68 100 / 20 50 40 30
MULE CREEK 66 96 65 96 / 30 50 40 40
FAYWOOD 70 98 68 97 / 10 30 40 10
ANIMAS 72 100 72 100 / 10 10 40 10
HACHITA 72 100 71 100 / 10 10 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 99 70 100 / 40 10 50 10
CLOVERDALE 64 92 66 94 / 50 10 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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