964
FXUS64 KEPZ 282329
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
529 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES.
- STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY FOR NEXT
WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
UPPER HIGH FIXED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE
WEEK-LONG TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL
AGAIN FLIRT WITH THE TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK, GENERALLY IN THE 96-102
RANGE. THIS IS 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN USUAL FOR THE END OF
AUGUST. NOT QUITE RECORD SETTING, BUT STILL SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED (20-30% COVERAGE LOWLANDS, 40-60%
COVERAGE MOUNTAINS) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. BLEND OF NBM AND CONSMOS GUIDANCE USED FOR SHORT-TERM
POPS THIS FORECAST, LOOKING TO ENSURE AT LEAST MENTIONABLE STORM
CHANCES ARE INCLUDED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW. SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS,
INDICATED BY MORNING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.0-1.2" RANGE. THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TERRAIN FORCING TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS BY 12-1 PM.
MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. RECENT RAINFALL THERE (WIDESPREAD
0.50-1.50" ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
PAST 48 HOURS) WILL LEAD TO QUICKER RUNOFF AND CANYON/CREEK
FLOODING WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM TODAY. WILL BE A BIT MORE
LIBERAL WITH FLOOD PRODUCTS THERE TODAY.
ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED, HIT-AND-MISS (MOSTLY MISS) STORMS WILL POSE
A RISK OF BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR SIGNALS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY TONIGHT, LIKELY
AROUND SUNSET.
UPPER HIGH FLATTENS AND BEGINS A SUBTLE PROGRESSION EASTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FOCUS BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND WEST
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (GRANT AND HIDALGO COUNTIES FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA) WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
ADDED A 4-8 PM SAT/SUN MENTION OF DUST FOR LORDSBURG AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR NEAR THE STATE LINE DUE TO SENSITIVITY. MOST OF THE RIO
GRANDE/TULAROSA BASINS LOOK TO BE DRY AND WARM.
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE TO REINTRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES IN EARLY SEPTEMBER, WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE FLOW. ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN LESS BULLISH ON
MOISTURE, KEEPING AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH FIXED OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN US. NBM LEANS HARD ON ECMWF LONG TERM, SO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS (5-10%). I DO THINK THOSE CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECTING MORE ISOLATED
(LOW BUT AT LEAST MENTIONABLE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
NEXT WEEK, INSTEAD OF THE DRY FORECAST CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
A STRAY TS MAY IMPACT KTCS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. SATURDAY'S CONVECTION SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS FOR
KTCS (10-20%). WINDS AOB 8KTS FROM S-SE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SCATTERED (40-60% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
GILA/LINCOLN FORESTS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT RAINS OVER LNF WILL
HEIGHTEN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON. SUDDEN,
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ALL STORMS. GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, SO CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED NEAR FIRE LINES.
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY THIS EVENING, LIKELY BY
SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
STORM CHANCES WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO GILA NF OVER THE WEEKEND,
AS MOISTURE SHIFTS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MIN RH 25-35%
WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES (60-80%). WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO FAIR VENT RATES. WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH GOOD VENT RATES.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM WITH STORM COVERAGE DECREASING. CAN'T RULE
OUT ISOLATED (20-30% COVERAGE) AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS, BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 99 73 101 / 10 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 95 66 97 / 10 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 70 98 69 99 / 20 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 97 70 99 / 20 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 73 52 75 / 30 30 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 98 71 98 / 20 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 65 92 64 91 / 30 20 20 20
DEMING 70 100 69 100 / 30 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 71 99 70 96 / 20 20 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 99 76 100 / 10 10 10 0
DELL CITY 69 99 68 100 / 10 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 102 73 104 / 10 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 68 92 68 93 / 10 10 10 0
FABENS 72 100 72 101 / 10 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 73 98 72 99 / 10 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 98 74 100 / 30 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 98 70 99 / 30 10 10 0
HATCH 71 102 70 102 / 30 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 73 100 72 100 / 20 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 69 96 68 97 / 20 10 10 0
MAYHILL 56 86 57 88 / 30 30 20 20
MESCALERO 55 85 56 86 / 20 20 10 10
TIMBERON 54 83 54 85 / 30 20 10 10
WINSTON 60 89 60 88 / 30 40 30 30
HILLSBORO 69 97 68 97 / 30 20 20 10
SPACEPORT 69 98 68 99 / 30 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 91 58 90 / 60 30 20 30
HURLEY 65 95 64 94 / 20 10 20 10
CLIFF 67 99 67 97 / 40 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 65 95 64 92 / 50 20 20 20
FAYWOOD 67 94 67 94 / 20 10 10 10
ANIMAS 70 99 70 96 / 10 20 20 20
HACHITA 69 98 69 96 / 10 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 98 68 95 / 10 20 20 20
CLOVERDALE 67 93 65 89 / 10 30 30 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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