414
FXUS64 KEPZ 311121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 359 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY EAST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
AFTER THE EXCITEMENT OF ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES LAST WEEKEND, WE HAVE SETTLED INTO A QUIETER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST IS SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST INTO OUR
REGION. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND ON
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 4 OR 5 DEGREES WITH
THE RIDGE RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT, IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST AND A
FAST, BUT WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DASH ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WON'T HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT IT
WILL GIVE US SOME BREEZY AND WARM WEST WINDS WHICH WILL JUMP OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 4 OR 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR TUESDAY, WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THE FRONT
COMES IN A LITTLE LATE ON TUESDAY, SO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES, BUT WE WILL SEE A LITTLE
BIGGER DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE AND A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE EAST OF THE RIVER. WE
WILL STAY DRY FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC, WITH
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FEW250 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 3-7 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND VRB IN
DIRECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR-SEASONAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BECOMING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MIN RH
VALUES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, WITH ABOVE 35 PERCENT VALUES OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NMZ113.
WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT AT 7 TO 15 MPH AND GENERALLY VARIABLE
OR TERRAIN/DRAINAGE DRIVEN IN TERMS OF DIRECTION. VENT RATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE GENERALLY POOR, WITH PORTIONS OF
CATRON COUNTY AND SACRAMENTO MTN EAST SLOPES WITHIN THE FAIR
CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR ON SUNDAY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND POOR TO FAIR FOR AREAS WEST. VENT
RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ON MONDAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 35 65 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 31 59 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 61 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 29 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 25 46 28 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 62 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 32 59 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 32 64 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 30 63 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 37 63 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 25 57 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 33 67 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 57 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 33 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 31 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 62 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 28 62 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 65 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 34 63 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 29 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 59 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 26 56 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 28 52 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 58 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 34 62 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 27 62 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 29 62 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 60 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 29 68 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 30 65 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 59 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 30 64 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 29 62 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 37 60 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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