893
FXUS64 KEPZ 170446
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1046 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
- THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN BE
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- TYPICAL MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY, LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY,
SO TO NO ONE'S SURPRISE WE WILL HAVE VERY SIMILAR WEATHER. MOST OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING
A LITTLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WAS A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A
TROUGH OUT WEST, DON'T MOVE MUCH ON THURSDAY, SO THAT IS WHY THE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR. BY FRIDAY THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST AND THAT WILL SHIFT THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.
TEMPERATURES ALL THREE DAYS WILL RUN AT OR JUST A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE.
BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST AND
SWEEP IN LOTS OF DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. SO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR AVERAGE. BUT THE DRY WEATHER WON'T
LAST, AS ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE TO OUR EAST.
MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DRAW UP ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA. IF THE EXTENDED GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED, WE WILL HAVE A
THREAT FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE
EXTENDED ECMWF HAS GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN, BUT IS NOT AS BULLISH
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS
AND RAIN WE SEE, BUT THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME BELOW AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THAT WOULD BE A NICE CHANGE AFTER OUR LONG HOT
SUMMER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
IF YOU LIKED TONIGHT'S WEATHER, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOMETHING VERY
SIMILAR ON THURSDAY. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT HOURS WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 080-120
FEET. WE MAY SEE SOME CLEARING ON LATE THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WE DID SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS TONIGHT, BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE LESS CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS ON
THURSDAY, BUT I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME LOW END WIND GUSTS FOR A
FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF A THUNDERSTORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT
ONE OF THE AIRPORT TOMORROW, WE WOULD LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR OR
EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES. AND STRONG WIND GUST NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LIKE TODAY STORM MOTIONS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
WE REMAIN WITHIN A MOIST PATTERN, SO THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35% WITH
STRONG OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, THERE
WILL BE ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. VENT RATE CATEGORIES WILL RANGE FAIR TO GOOD FOR
TODAY AND THURSDAY, DECREASING TO POOR TO FAIR FOR FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 93 69 93 / 30 10 50 20
SIERRA BLANCA 64 90 64 91 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 64 89 65 89 / 60 10 60 20
ALAMOGORDO 64 91 65 90 / 40 10 30 40
CLOUDCROFT 48 68 49 67 / 40 30 40 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 85 65 84 / 90 20 70 50
SILVER CITY 59 80 59 80 / 90 20 50 50
DEMING 63 89 63 89 / 80 10 50 30
LORDSBURG 64 86 65 87 / 80 10 40 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 93 70 92 / 40 10 50 20
DELL CITY 66 93 66 94 / 10 0 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 72 98 71 99 / 10 10 20 10
LOMA LINDA 65 87 65 87 / 20 10 30 20
FABENS 69 95 68 95 / 20 10 30 20
SANTA TERESA 66 91 67 91 / 50 10 50 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 92 70 91 / 50 10 50 30
JORNADA RANGE 64 89 65 88 / 60 10 60 40
HATCH 65 90 65 90 / 80 20 70 30
COLUMBUS 68 90 67 91 / 70 10 40 30
OROGRANDE 64 90 65 89 / 40 10 40 30
MAYHILL 54 80 54 81 / 40 30 30 60
MESCALERO 53 79 53 78 / 40 40 30 60
TIMBERON 52 77 53 77 / 40 10 30 50
WINSTON 56 76 55 76 / 90 40 60 60
HILLSBORO 64 84 64 84 / 100 20 70 40
SPACEPORT 63 87 63 86 / 80 20 70 40
LAKE ROBERTS 55 79 54 79 / 100 30 50 60
HURLEY 60 82 59 82 / 90 10 50 40
CLIFF 62 87 61 87 / 90 20 40 40
MULE CREEK 61 82 60 83 / 90 10 30 30
FAYWOOD 62 81 62 81 / 90 20 70 40
ANIMAS 64 87 64 88 / 70 10 30 20
HACHITA 63 86 63 87 / 80 10 40 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 87 64 88 / 60 30 40 30
CLOVERDALE 61 84 62 85 / 50 10 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF
THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES
BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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