579
FXUS64 KEPZ 221717
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1117 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS ABOVE
100 DEGREES. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
- VERY DRY EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE SOME MOISTURE GIVES THE HIGH
TERRAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND REGION AND THE CHIHUAHUAN
DESERT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. ON THE SOUTHERN MARGIN, A COUPLE OF
EASTERLY WAVES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO WITH NO APPRECIABLE
IMPACT ON OUR AREA. TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ARE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. VERY WARM 500MB TEMPS
OF -1C TO -3C, SO CAPPING OF THE AIRMASS CONTINUES.
THE UPPER HIGH DOES BECOME MORE CIRCULAR BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA. 500MB TEMPS ALSO COOL, TURNING OUR AIRMASS BACK TO
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THUS SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY, MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND POPS EXTEND DOWN INTO THE
LOWLANDS. HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH TUE/WED BEING THE
HOTTEST DAYS. HEAT ADVISORIES OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAY BE
NEEDED BEYOND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH AND WEST AS PACIFIC
TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS INCREASES OUR WEST
FLOW WHICH SCOURS OUT ANY MOISTURE STILL LEFT, AND IT INDUCES
BREEZY AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. UNLESS THE MOUNTAINS GET SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAIN, OUR AIRMASS AND FUELS ARE GOING TO GO THROUGH A
LONG STRETCH OF DRYING OUT. THUS WITH THE AFTERNOON WINDS, FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL AND POSSIBLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
WEST 10-15G25 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, GRADUALLY DRYING
OUT THE FUELS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH JUST
THE VERY LOW RH SUGGEST ELEVATED CONDITIONS. ERCS ARE AT OR EXCEEDING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE TODAY (SACRAMENTO MTNS A FEW DAYS LATER), AND
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE 95TH PERCENTILE BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
DO PICK UP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING FIRE CONDITIONS TO NEAR
CRITICAL AND POSSIBLY INTO RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...5-10% THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 12-17% THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GILA/BLACK RANGE...8-13% THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THEN 10-20% THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN
MTNS...10-17% THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 15-25% THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THEN
EXCELLENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 107 79 107 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 102 71 102 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 68 104 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 104 73 105 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 100 68 99 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 68 107 70 107 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 103 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 105 77 105 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 67 105 70 105 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 108 77 108 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 107 75 107 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 104 73 105 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 104 78 105 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 104 71 105 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 107 72 107 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 106 75 107 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 103 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 94 61 92 / 0 10 0 30
MESCALERO 57 94 59 93 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 57 91 58 89 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 61 96 64 95 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 69 102 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 66 104 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 100 61 99 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 65 102 68 102 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 63 104 67 104 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 62 101 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 67 101 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 68 104 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 67 104 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 104 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 65 99 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE
FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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