319
FXUS64 KEPZ 202316
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
516 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- HISTORIC MARCH HEAT WAVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. WE WILL LIKELY SET DAILY AND EVEN MONTHLY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. LIGHT WINDS WILL
MITIGATE FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE GILA
REGION AND BLACK RANGE.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY, THOUGH REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND UPWARDS AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
UPPER HIGH NOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RECORD-LEVEL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD. TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY COULD EVEN BREAK MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE HIGH CENTER DOES SAG SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING JET WITH POLAR AND SUB-TROPICAL JETS MERGING.
WEAK SHORT-WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN THIS
NEAR-ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW (SOMEHOW) A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PRETTY SHALLOW; GFS SHOWS FRONT MAKING IT TO ABOUT THE
CONT DIVIDE BEFORE MIXING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM12 SHOWS THE
FRONT ALL THE WAY TO THE AZ BORDER BEFORE MIXING OUT. AT ANY RATE,
SOME COOLING 5-10 DEG SHOULD TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS
COOLING, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORD LEVELS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SEES THE UPPER HIGH REBUILDING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMP LEVELS AGAIN. JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS DESERT SOUTHWEST HIGH GETS DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OVER TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST. AS USUAL, GFS MORE BULLISH,
BRINGING SUB-TROPCIAL LOW EAST TO THE BAJA NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL TAP INTO SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
ALSO INVOLVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SUB-TROPICAL JET BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THUS THIS WOULD SUGGEST A PERIOD OF RAIN SAT/SUN.
ECMWF, THOUGH ALSO BRINGING SOME OF THAT MOISTURE UP, SHOWS LESS
QPF AND MAYBE MORE CONCENTRATED OUT WEST TOWARD ARIZONA. PLENTY OF
TIME TO SEE IF MODELS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY ON THIS FEATURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
DRYNESS WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS NOT ONLY REMAINING AT DAILY RECORD LEVELS,
BUT ALSO AROUND MONTHLY RECORD LEVELS. THIS MEANS SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITY CONTINUING ALONG WITH THE DRYING OUT OF FUELS. A BACK
DOOR COOL FRONT ON MONDAY GIVES A SLIGHT RESPITE FROM THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY, BUT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY RIGHT
BACK TO THE HEAT AND DRYNESS. FORTUNATELY NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS. BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE POSSIBLE SAT/SUN WEST
OF THE CONT DIVIDE BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. IF, AND WHEN WE GET
STRONGER WINDS, WE COULD SEE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
DEVELOP.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 5-10% THROUGH THURSDAY, EXCEPT MONDAY AT 10-15%.
MOUNTAINS 7-12% THROUGH THURSDAY, EXCEPT MONDAY AT 12-20%. VENT
RATES POOR-FAIR MONDAY, OTHER DAYS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GOOD-
EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 95 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 92 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 94 52 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 93 49 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 47 75 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 94 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 53 88 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 52 96 51 95 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 52 93 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 94 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 95 50 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 99 54 100 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 97 55 98 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 93 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 96 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 94 43 95 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 98 48 97 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 96 57 96 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 93 45 93 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 50 89 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 49 85 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 51 83 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 47 89 46 87 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 58 93 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 94 42 93 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 89 40 86 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 51 92 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 35 95 36 91 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 32 91 33 88 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 57 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 56 95 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 94 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 94 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 90 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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