327
FXUS64 KEPZ 111125
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
525 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 409 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE EL PASO.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND
BLOWING DUST.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH BLOWING
DUST POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE SHORT TERM MODELS DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB OF INDICATING THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CREATE A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS EVENING
AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT WE SAW. THE STORMS HAVE SETTLED AS HAVE
THE WINDS AND THE DUST AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A PLEASANT NIGHT
TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT
DRIER AIR WILL BE RUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THEY
DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR. ABOUT HALF OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS START THE STORMS (MUCH LIKE TODAY) JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
EL PASO AND THEN MOVE THEM NORTHEAST SO LIKE TODAY WE WOULD SEE
WIND AND RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, BUT THE OTHER HALF
OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
FURTHER EAST AND THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START EAST OF EL PASO AND
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. FOR NOW I KEPT THE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR EL PASO/LAS CRUCES AND TO THE EAST,
BUT IF LATER SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS COME IN WITH DRIER AIR, WE MAY
NEED TO PUSH THOSE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER EAST.
BY SUNDAY, WE WILL BE DRIER, BUT A SLOW APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GIVE US BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS FOR AT LEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH, WHICH WOULD LIKELY
GIVE US AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION SO WE MAY EXTEND THE BREEZY WINDS INTO
TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE LESS WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TO
GIVE US BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT FRIDAY.
TAKING A QUICK AT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY'S
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAY ON FRIDAY, BUT THEY
STILL WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN BY TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WE WILL SEE
TUESDAY'S HIGHS RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF KELP, BUT OUTFLOW WINDS
COULD WORK BACK WEST DESPITE THE STORMS BEING TO OUR EAST. THAT
SAID, NO MENTION OF TS OR SH IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. SKIES
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL REMAIN BKN AT VARYING CIGS. SCT CU WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT 7-12KFT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOCUSED OVER AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT WEST OF THE RG VALLEY AND 20-40
PLUS PERCENT EAST OF THE RG VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TREND 2 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE RG VALLEY AT 10-20 MPH. SMOKE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE
EXCELLENT AREAS WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS TO THE EAST.
FOR SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NORCAL AND GREAT BASIN REGION
WILL OVERLAY DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO INFILTRATE, PUSHING MOISTURE BACK TO THE EAST. MIN RH
VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, 15-25 PERCENT FOR THE SACS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL INDUCE LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CO HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NM. THE
TIGHTENINGSURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY SW WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH, LEADING TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 83 57 82 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 79 51 79 / 50 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 79 51 77 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 79 50 79 / 20 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 55 38 56 / 30 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 78 54 76 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 71 45 68 / 10 0 0 10
DEMING 49 81 52 79 / 10 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 47 78 50 75 / 10 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 83 59 81 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 82 50 82 / 40 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 86 55 87 / 40 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 76 52 76 / 30 0 0 0
FABENS 56 85 56 85 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 82 54 80 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 81 57 80 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 80 50 79 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 52 82 53 81 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 83 60 81 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 79 50 79 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 44 68 44 68 / 30 0 0 0
MESCALERO 41 67 41 66 / 30 10 0 0
TIMBERON 41 65 41 65 / 30 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 70 41 68 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 76 50 74 / 10 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 46 79 49 77 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 70 41 67 / 10 0 0 10
HURLEY 44 74 44 71 / 10 0 0 10
CLIFF 42 77 45 73 / 10 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 41 74 42 70 / 10 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 46 74 47 71 / 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 47 79 52 76 / 10 0 0 10
HACHITA 48 78 53 76 / 10 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 78 52 77 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 73 50 71 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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