676
FXUS64 KEPZ 161808
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1208 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
MID-DAY BEFORE REACHING THE EL PASO/LAS CRUCES AREA LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
AND STORM-GENERATED OUTFLOWS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
COULD GENERATE BLOWING DUST FOR THE LOWLANDS.
- BEST STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND GILA NATIONAL FOREST, POSING A RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY, HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO LOWLANDS
BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, DAYTIME HEATING, OROGRAPHIC LIFT, AND INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL PROVIDE THE SETTING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION TODAY. A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER BOTH THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST WITH THE ACTIVITY
FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO THE EL PASO/LAS CRUCES AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN, AS MAX RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM CAMS RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES, BUT AS TO WHO WILL GET
HIT THE HARDEST IN THE LOWLANDS IS STILL INCONCLUSIVE AT THIS TIME.
THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS AND SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000J/KG, AND ARE INDICATING
THAT THUNDERSTORM GENERATED OUTFLOWS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH, WHICH COULD STIR UP BLOWING DUST FOR THE LOWLAND DESERTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH, BUT SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE (50-60%) FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS COMING IN SECOND (25-35%).
SOUTHEASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY MAY ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS HAVE
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR RAIN. THAT BEING SAID, PWAT VALUES IN THE
LOWLANDS ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES FOR MONDAY, SO THE
THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE RIDGE STARTS TO RETURN OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, DRYING THE LOWLANDS
OUT AND RAISING TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK MID- TO-
LATE WEEK. STILL A CHANCE OF SOME RELIEF LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE'S EASTERN FLANK BREAKS DOWN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN STORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
PERIOD, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS FROM 22Z TO 03Z
COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 5SM FOR ALL FOUR TAF SITES, STRADDLING
THE LINE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR DEPENDING ON WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATE. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A 30% CHANCE FOR STORMS, AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER 03Z, WITH ONLY HIGH BKN
250 CEILINGS AND LIGHT WINDS REMAINING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
CONTINUED RAIN WILL KEEP ERC VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY THIS
WEEK, BUT ERC VALUES WILL INCREASE BY MIDWEEK. MIN RHS WILL BE
ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW ON THE ACCOUNT OF
THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY BEING IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND IN THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST ON MONDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. LOWLAND MIN RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO THE TEENS AND STAY IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VENTILATION RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO VERY
GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 95 73 97 / 30 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 91 65 93 / 10 30 10 0
LAS CRUCES 67 92 67 95 / 40 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 67 92 68 95 / 20 20 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 50 69 50 72 / 10 40 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 90 68 93 / 40 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 63 85 63 87 / 30 60 20 20
DEMING 69 94 68 96 / 50 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 70 93 70 95 / 20 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 94 74 97 / 30 10 10 0
DELL CITY 70 95 69 97 / 0 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 97 73 100 / 10 30 10 0
LOMA LINDA 67 87 67 90 / 10 20 10 0
FABENS 72 95 72 97 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 71 92 71 95 / 30 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 92 72 95 / 30 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 92 68 94 / 40 10 10 0
HATCH 69 95 68 97 / 40 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 73 95 72 96 / 30 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 67 91 67 93 / 20 10 10 0
MAYHILL 55 81 55 85 / 10 20 10 20
MESCALERO 54 80 54 82 / 10 40 10 30
TIMBERON 53 79 53 82 / 10 20 10 10
WINSTON 59 82 58 85 / 50 40 20 10
HILLSBORO 66 90 66 92 / 40 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 67 91 66 93 / 40 20 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 84 56 86 / 30 70 20 40
HURLEY 64 87 63 90 / 40 50 10 10
CLIFF 66 93 65 94 / 20 70 20 10
MULE CREEK 64 90 63 90 / 20 60 20 20
FAYWOOD 65 87 65 89 / 40 30 10 0
ANIMAS 70 94 69 95 / 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 69 92 68 94 / 30 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 93 68 93 / 20 10 20 0
CLOVERDALE 66 89 65 89 / 10 30 20 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
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