717
FXUS64 KEPZ 191145
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
445 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 409 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A RISK OF
BLOWING DUST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
THIS MAY CAUSE IMPACTFUL TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY REDUCING
VISIBILITY ON AREA ROADWAYS.
- LIGHTER WINDS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BROUGHT REPEATED BOUTS OF ENERGY
WHICH HAS CREATED WINDY CONDITIONS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS
TROUGH IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE PACNW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT BOTH DAYS WON'T BE AS WINDY AS WHAT WE'VE SEEN BUT
WILL BE NOTICEABLE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY WINDIER ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS 20-30
MPH. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES ON
FRIDAY BUT WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN FUTURE RUNS. BLOWING DUST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX
BOTH AFTERNOONS BUT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST VS.
SOUTHWEST LIKE WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP EL PASO
OUT OF THE WORST OF THE DUST BUT RATHER THE MAJORITY OF THE
NORTHERN MEXICO PLUMES WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY. DUST SOURCES NEAR THE LORDSBURG PLAYA, IN AND
AROUND DEMING MAY ACTIVATE AND WILL PUSH DUST DOWNSTREAM TO PLACES
LIKE LAS CRUCES. SAME THING WITH WHITE SANDS BLOWING DUST
DOWNSTREAM TO LOCATIONS LIKE ALAMOGORDO.
AFTER OUR WINDY WORK WEEK ENDS FRIDAY, MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
LIGHT WINDS BUT AN INCOMING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS APPEARS TO PUSH IN LATE SATURDAY PM AND SUNDAY AM WHICH
WILL BRING EAST BREEZINESS TO THE AREA AS IT PUSHES IN. OTHERWISE,
THE FRONT REALLY DOESN'T DO MUCH FOR US EXCEPT KEEP TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
BREEZY W WINDS RETURN BY LATE MORNING AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHTER
WINDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS TO 30KTS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH PATCHY BLDU. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
DUST IMPACTS LATER TODAY AS WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG AS
WEDNESDAY. VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3SM OR BELOW ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MOST
LIKELY AT KELP AND KDMN. KELP HAS A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF REACHING
AWW CRITERIA; NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN AWW AT THIS
TIME (19-22Z IS MOST LIKELY TIME TO SEE AWW WINDS). WINDS SETTLE
TO AROUND 10KTS THIS EVENING. FEW-SCT250 PASS OVERHEAD WITH SOME
MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 409 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
STAY BREEZY EACH DAY FROM THE WEST. TODAY WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER
WINDS COMPARED TO FRI WITH HIGHER RHS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS,
CREATING SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. RHS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS ON FRI, RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER AND LOCALLY CRITICAL. ERCS REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW THE 50TH
PERCENTILE, SO FUELS WON'T BE VERY RECEPTIVE TO NEW FIRE STARTS ON
FRI EVEN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. RFWS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR
FRI DUE TO THE MORE MARGINAL RHS COMPARED TO WED WHEN THEY WERE IN
EFFECT. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER FOR THE WEEKEND AS RHS HOLD NEAR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, LOWERING THE FIRE DANGER THREAT. OTHER THAN A
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE GILA REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING,
NO PRECIP IS FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THEN WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-45% TODAY, THEN 12-35% FRI. VENTILATION WILL
BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH FRI, THEN POOR TO FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 43 67 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 38 66 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 36 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 24 37 22 42 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 47 27 57 / 20 20 0 0
DEMING 37 61 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 32 56 28 62 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 65 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 65 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 40 74 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 60 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 39 71 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 38 64 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 60 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 37 62 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 40 65 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 35 61 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 30 51 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 49 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 29 47 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 50 19 54 / 10 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 35 56 29 58 / 10 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 32 60 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 27 46 23 58 / 20 20 0 0
HURLEY 31 52 26 58 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 29 54 25 63 / 30 30 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 48 24 60 / 30 30 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 52 30 58 / 10 10 0 0
ANIMAS 37 61 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 38 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 57 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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