495
FXUS64 KEPZ 300101
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
601 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 543 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
JUST A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL OTERO
COUNTY, FOCUSED ON TIMBERON, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR
WET SNOW. DON'T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING GOING FORWARD, SO
WE WENT AHEAD AND PUT THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES OUT OF THE
MISERY.
MRMS PRECIP ESTIMATES, AND INTERPOLATION ACROSS THE BEAM BLOCKED
HIGHER TERRAIN, SHOW THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP SET UP FROM THE NORTH
SIDE OF LAS CRUCES, RIGHT OVER SAN AUGUSTIN PASS, AND INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS JUST SOUTH OF TIMBERON AND ACROSS TO
PINON. A SECONDARY AREA OF STEADIER PRECIP STAYED NORTH OF THE
TX/NM BORDER OVER THE VERY SPARSELY POPULATED OTERO MESA. IT ALSO
SEEMS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT NUDGED FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED,
LEADING TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS AROUND
SUNSPOT AND AREAS NORTH OF TIMBERON. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL LIKELY
OCCURRED SOMEWHERE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 7500 FEET NORTHEAST
OF TIMBERON, PERHAPS IN THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF AGUA CHIQUITA
CANYON. HAD THE PRECIP BAND BEEN JUST 15 TO 20 MILES FURTHER
NORTH, THEN AREAS SOUTH OF CLOUDCROFT AND NEAR SUNSPOT WOULD'VE
DONE MUCH BETTER. MRMS ESTIMATES SUGGEST LIQUID QPF WAS CLOSE TO 1
INCH WHERE THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERED THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
SACRAMENTOS. PRETTY MUCH ALL THE UNOFFICIAL GAUGES IN THAT AREA
ARE UNHEATED TIPPING BUCKETS, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR MELTING TO
OCCUR TO GET ANY SENSE OF GROUND TRUTH.
EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE AREAS
THAT RECEIVED PRECIP. SAN AUGUSTIN PASS WILL LIKELY GET SOCKED IN
AGAIN TONIGHT, AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TULAROSA BASIN SHOULD SEE
A LOW STRATUS LAYER DEVELOP, WITH FOG WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. I'M A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL IN
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY IF WE CAN GET RID OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT BEHIND THIS
MORNING'S COLD FRONT. WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN
OTERO COUNTY.
- DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE,
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON NEW YEAR'S DAY.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST MON DEC 29 2025
BANDED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE INCLUDING OTERO, CHAVEZ, AND EDDY COUNTIES. EL PASO HAS BEEN
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING, WITH A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE
FRANKLIN FOOTHILLS. THE ONGOING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MORE OR LESS ENDING EL PASO'S
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY MID-AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE
6000 FEET, BUT THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR A WINTRY MIX ALONG
THE I-25 AND US-54 CORRIDORS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND OTERO MESA
LOCALLY, WITH 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR CLOUDCROFT, MAYHILL, AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST. SNOW TOTALS WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY FURTHER NORTH TOWARD MESCALERO AND RUIDOSO.
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN
UNTIL 11 PM, WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (1-2 INCHES OF SNOW)
HEADLINE FOR THE RURAL OTERO MESA EAST OF OROGRANDE.
THE ARRIVAL OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES
15-20 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
STAGNANT TODAY WITH MINIMAL DAYTIME WARMING. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL
SIT IN THE LOWER-TO-MID 40S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
COLD NIGHT AHEAD AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.
MUCH OF THE DESERT FLOOR WILL DIP DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S. ONLY THING KEEPING US FROM GETTING EVEN COLDER WILL BE THE
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-TO-MID 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO QUICK REBOUND,
WARMING EL PASO'S HIGH BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S.
NEW YEAR'S EVE CELEBRATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY UNAFFECTED BY THE
WEATHER FORECAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT WINDS IS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS.
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE ON NEW YEAR'S DAY, WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BRINGING OUR NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
ALMOST ENTIRELY LIGHT RAIN, EVEN FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND WARM AS A BROAD RIDGE
SITS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF 2026.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM, WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG TRY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT THE WIDESPREAD
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERTURBED WINDS ARE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE
NORTHERN TULAROSA BASIN IS MOST LIKELY TO GET SOCKED IN WITH
STRATUS BY MORNING, NOT AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES, BUT LRU IS A
LITTLE QUESTIONABLE. A LIGHT SE WIND CAN SOMETIMES BRING SOME
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS IN A POST-PRECIP WINTER ENVIRONMENT AT LRU, BUT
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE MID-20S, AND IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO CLEAR OUT ANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WILL MONITOR FOR NOW,
BUT IN THE MEANTIME, VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST MON DEC 29 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. EAST WINDS
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TODAY, WITH POOR VENTILATION.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH 40-50%. WINDS SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER GILA NATIONAL FOREST THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOMING
BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
AND WARM FOR ALL LOCAL FIRE ZONES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 35 56 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 30 53 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 30 52 31 60 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 28 53 25 61 / 30 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 40 32 47 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 53 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 53 34 61 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 32 55 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 30 55 31 63 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 56 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 25 52 25 62 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 33 59 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 28 50 33 57 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 33 57 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 33 54 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 33 53 36 61 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 26 53 22 60 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 30 56 26 63 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 34 56 34 64 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 30 52 32 59 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 22 48 31 62 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 22 51 29 58 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 20 45 27 54 / 60 0 0 0
WINSTON 19 51 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 28 53 34 63 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 27 53 29 60 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 16 57 22 63 / 10 10 0 10
HURLEY 27 52 32 61 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 22 61 26 67 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 19 58 24 64 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 32 52 35 60 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 32 56 33 65 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 31 54 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 29 55 30 66 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 32 53 37 64 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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