857
FXUS64 KEPZ 201130
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
- ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TODAY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ON MONDAY.
WHILE DOING SO, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL OVERLAY THE REGION.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHT CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
40-50 DEGREES, PROMOTING VIRGA WITH SAID SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWLANDS. THAT SAID, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY), DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERLAY THE REGION AS A SLOW PROGRESSING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASING PVA AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL FOSTER LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE FRONT RANGE WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. THAT SAID, AT THIS MOMENT WINDS EACH DAY WITH REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA IN TERMS OF WIND PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH, WITH THE BREEZIEST DAYS BEING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT250. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 30%) FOR
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCLUDING FOR ELP. BRIEF
+RA AND CLOUD BASES TO AROUND 080 WOULD BE MAIN IMPACTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON APR 20 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING AS A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH VALUES IN THE
20S WILL FOSTER A DRY LIGHTNING RISK. BEST STORM/SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FOR LOWLANDS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WARMER WEATHER TODAY WITH WINDS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 10 MPH WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES.
TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER, BUT WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY REMAINING BREEZY EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THUS, ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 86 59 87 / 20 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 81 53 83 / 30 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 50 84 52 83 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 84 54 85 / 20 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 60 42 61 / 30 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 83 54 84 / 20 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 77 47 74 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 50 86 51 85 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 49 84 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 86 61 86 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 47 85 51 88 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 54 89 57 90 / 30 20 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 78 56 79 / 20 10 0 0
FABENS 54 88 57 88 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 85 56 85 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 85 60 85 / 20 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 47 85 51 84 / 20 10 0 0
HATCH 48 87 51 86 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 87 58 87 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 83 53 83 / 20 10 0 0
MAYHILL 41 73 45 74 / 20 20 0 0
MESCALERO 41 72 45 72 / 30 20 0 0
TIMBERON 41 69 44 70 / 30 20 0 0
WINSTON 39 76 41 75 / 20 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 82 51 81 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 84 47 83 / 20 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 77 43 74 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 80 46 78 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 84 46 80 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 46 79 44 75 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 79 49 77 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 85 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 84 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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