447
FXUS64 KEPZ 131110
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
510 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH TODAY BEING THE HOTTEST OF THE PERIOD,WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S OR EVEN 100 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS.
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING IN THE GILA
WILDERNESS ON THIS AFTERNOON, WITH POSSIBLY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
TOO.
- BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, CREATING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER, CULMINATING SUNDAY AS GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP AND PUSH FIRE CONDITIONS TO NEAR CRITICAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MAKING IT WAY ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL HIT THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK.
EL PASO WILL HAVE A CHANCE (20 TO 30%) OF HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MAKE AS WELL. LATE IN THE DAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS GOING, BUT WITH THE DRY LOWER LEVELS, IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE GILA WILDERNESS.
FOR THURSDAY, YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION, BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE A DECENT
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. BOTH OF THOSE WILL
GIVE US A BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WE WILL BE DRY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL HAVE BREEZY WINDS.
FOR SUNDAY WE WILL STILL BE DRY AND OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SUNDAY TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE OTHER TROUGHS, SO WE WILL
SEE WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM. FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL STILL BE DRY, WITH LESS WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT120 SCT-BKN250.
BETWEEN 19Z-01Z...MAINLY WEST OF THE RG VALLEY...SCT-BKN090 WITH
ISOLATED BKN070 -SHRA. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BECOMING SOUTH 10-15G25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
DIMINISHING TO WEST 5-8 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE RG
VALLEY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AFTER THURSDAY WITH MIN
HUMIDITY MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THURSDAY, CERTAINLY ELEVATING FIRE CONDITIONS. ERCS ARE
FORECAST TO BE PAST THE 90TH PERCENTILE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS BOTH
MOUNTAIN ZONES. COMBINED THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AS A
PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 10-15% TODAY AND THURSDAY, DECREASING TO 5-10%
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOUNTAINS 12-20% TODAY AND THURSDAY,
DECREASING TO 8-15% FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-
EXCELLENT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 62 92 58 92 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 92 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 72 48 71 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 92 60 91 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 84 53 83 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 61 93 58 93 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 89 55 90 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 63 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 93 61 93 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 92 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 94 55 95 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 66 94 63 94 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 91 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 86 55 86 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 52 84 51 83 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 50 80 50 80 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 48 84 47 84 / 20 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 60 89 58 89 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 91 50 92 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 84 46 84 / 20 0 0 0
HURLEY 54 86 51 86 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 89 48 90 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 84 44 85 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 56 86 54 85 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 90 55 91 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 59 90 56 90 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 90 56 90 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 58 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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