358
FXUS64 KEPZ 180438
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1038 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH POCKETS OF THUNDER AND HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THIS MAY
HELP DELAY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ON SATURDAY.
- INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- STORM CHANCES DECREASE NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE TRANS-PECOS REGION,
WITH SEVERAL WEAK, AND LIKELY POORLY-SAMPLED IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHEAST FLOW DROPPING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. 200 MB
STREAMLINES SHOW WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN SOUTHERN NM, BEFORE BECOMING WEAKLY CONVERGENT OVER SW
NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRES.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA AND INTO NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA, WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ABOUT THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CHAOTIC SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, AMPLIFIED TO SOME EXTENT BY AN APPARENT
DISTURBANCE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH, WHICH HAS LED TO AN UPTICK
IN PRECIP COVERAGE OVER SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTIES IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EVENTUALLY PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS TO
CONVERGE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, AND
WE'LL LIKELY HAVE AN MCV TO DEAL WITH TOMORROW. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
HINTING AT A SLOW START TO CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOWLANDS TOMORROW, AND A STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT FROM WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WOULD CERTAINLY BRING THAT. WE'LL HAVE TO GET
RID OF ANY MCV AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS CLOUDS AND REMNANT MORNING
SHOWERS IN ORDER TO DESTABILIZE TOMORROW.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
TONIGHT, IF WE CAN GET OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO CONVERGE AT THE RIGHT
TIME AND PLACE, ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE WELL TIMED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE RIDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD
BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NM.
THE LATEST RRFS MEMBERS ARE THROWING A BIT OF A CURVE-BALL,
SUGGESTING DEEPER CONVECTION IN SW NEW MEXICO TOMORROW EVENING,
WHILE THE HRRR HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
SITUATION WE WAKE UP TO TOMORROW (DEBRIS CLOUDS, ETC). BUT THE
OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATTERN THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR
BRINGING STORMS INTO THE LOWLANDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, WITH LIGHT N TO NE FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. SLOW
STORM MOTION, COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW MERGERS, AND PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.35 INCHES WILL FAVOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. WITHOUT A
REALLY CLEAR SIGNAL FOR WHERE EXACTLY THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER,
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE
FALSE ALARM AREA WOULD BE VERY LARGE. IN THESE ENVIRONMENTS,
ISSUING FLOOD WATCHES ON TIME SCALES SIMILAR TO SEVERE/CONVECTIVE
WATCHES IS RECOMMENDED, AND WE CAN LET THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOKS DO SOME OF THE HEAVIER LIFTING.
GFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES SHOW PWAT VALUES AVERAGING 1.35 INCHES EACH
DAY THROUGH MONDAY. LARGER SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AGAIN TARGETING
THE LOWLANDS. THIS MAY HELP TONE THINGS DOWN ON MONDAY AS
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE, AND THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS INTO AN
OPEN TROUGH OVER THE BIG BEND REGION, WITH MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
LIMITING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND 500MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND -3
TO -4C. THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE THERE, BUT THE FORCING WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER.
THEN WE'RE LOOKING AT A STEEP DECLINE IN MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS IN THE REGION WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOCATION. TCS IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE VISBY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO LRU AND PERHAPS EVEN
ELP AFTER 07-08Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING, WITH SOME
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 5000-6000 FEET. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TO BE
LATE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWLANDS, DUE TO OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL HAVING A STABILIZING EFFECT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BURN SCAR FLOODING, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE WHILE A SLOW-MOVING UL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
THUS, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME AREAS MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 2" OF
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS, MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO THE MID 30S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHT, OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
AND VENTING WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY, DECREASING TO
POOR TO FAIR ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 93 71 93 / 50 30 60 40
SIERRA BLANCA 64 88 63 87 / 20 40 40 60
LAS CRUCES 66 92 66 91 / 50 30 50 40
ALAMOGORDO 66 91 67 89 / 50 30 40 60
CLOUDCROFT 49 69 50 68 / 50 70 50 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 92 70 91 / 80 20 20 50
SILVER CITY 60 83 60 84 / 30 40 40 70
DEMING 66 94 66 94 / 40 20 40 50
LORDSBURG 65 88 65 90 / 30 20 30 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 92 72 91 / 50 30 60 40
DELL CITY 67 91 66 91 / 30 40 30 60
FORT HANCOCK 71 94 70 93 / 20 40 60 50
LOMA LINDA 65 86 64 85 / 50 30 60 50
FABENS 71 94 70 93 / 50 30 60 40
SANTA TERESA 69 91 68 90 / 50 30 60 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 93 72 91 / 50 40 50 50
JORNADA RANGE 67 92 68 91 / 50 20 40 40
HATCH 67 96 68 95 / 60 50 30 50
COLUMBUS 71 93 71 94 / 60 30 50 40
OROGRANDE 66 90 66 89 / 50 40 50 50
MAYHILL 54 80 55 79 / 50 80 60 90
MESCALERO 53 80 54 79 / 70 70 40 80
TIMBERON 51 77 52 76 / 40 60 70 80
WINSTON 57 84 58 83 / 40 70 20 70
HILLSBORO 64 90 65 89 / 30 40 20 60
SPACEPORT 64 92 65 91 / 80 20 30 50
LAKE ROBERTS 55 85 55 85 / 30 70 40 70
HURLEY 61 86 61 87 / 20 40 30 60
CLIFF 63 89 62 89 / 20 40 20 60
MULE CREEK 60 85 60 86 / 10 40 30 60
FAYWOOD 63 87 63 87 / 30 50 30 70
ANIMAS 66 87 65 90 / 30 20 30 30
HACHITA 64 88 64 90 / 40 20 50 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 87 66 90 / 40 50 50 60
CLOVERDALE 62 82 62 84 / 30 30 40 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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