697
FXUS64 KEPZ 041126
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- WE WILL SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN IN THE GILA REGION AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA BORDER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS
WEEK. WE WON'T BE AS HOT AS WE WERE LAST WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
UPPER HIGH STAYS BROAD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THE AREA WHERE
TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR EL PASO COUNTY AND
THE LOWER VALLEY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 105F+. THE LOWER
VALLEY MAY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT
LOOKS LIKE EL PASO WILL FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOT TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WON'T BE
QUITE AS HOT. UPPER 90S AND LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED DURING
THAT TIME. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY WITH A FOCUS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND WESTERN NM LOCATIONS BORDERING AZ BEING
FAVORED.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND SEEMS TO STAY PUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE A POTENTIAL
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY/COVERAGE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK, AND MAYBE EVEN
INTO THE WEEKEND, IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCT120-250. WIND DIRECTION
WILL VARY CONSIDERABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH FAVORING THE E OR
SE THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WITH TOP OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AGAIN, BUT MAINLY WEST OF TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN THE
SACRAMENTO/ CAPITAN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
GILA WILDERNESS AND INTO LOWLANDS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT VENT CATEGORIES WILL
RANGE GOOD TO VERY GOOD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WEATHER, BUT
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD AREA WIDE THOUGH WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 102 77 103 / 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 68 98 68 98 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 71 100 72 101 / 20 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 72 100 72 100 / 10 10 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 54 77 54 76 / 10 20 10 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 99 73 100 / 50 30 20 20
SILVER CITY 65 93 65 94 / 30 60 20 60
DEMING 71 101 71 102 / 30 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 70 97 70 99 / 30 40 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 102 78 102 / 10 10 10 10
DELL CITY 72 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 105 76 106 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 69 95 71 95 / 0 0 10 10
FABENS 75 103 75 103 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 74 100 75 101 / 10 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 102 77 102 / 10 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 72 100 73 101 / 20 10 10 10
HATCH 72 103 73 104 / 30 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 74 101 75 103 / 20 10 20 10
OROGRANDE 71 99 72 100 / 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 60 88 60 87 / 10 20 10 50
MESCALERO 60 89 59 88 / 10 20 20 60
TIMBERON 57 86 57 86 / 10 20 10 40
WINSTON 64 91 63 91 / 30 50 20 50
HILLSBORO 69 97 70 98 / 50 50 20 30
SPACEPORT 71 99 71 100 / 30 10 20 30
LAKE ROBERTS 59 93 59 93 / 30 60 20 70
HURLEY 66 95 66 97 / 40 50 20 40
CLIFF 68 99 68 100 / 20 60 20 60
MULE CREEK 65 94 65 95 / 20 50 30 50
FAYWOOD 68 95 68 96 / 40 50 20 30
ANIMAS 69 98 70 100 / 50 20 20 20
HACHITA 68 97 69 99 / 40 20 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 97 69 99 / 40 20 30 10
CLOVERDALE 64 91 65 93 / 50 40 50 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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