741
FXUS64 KEPZ 182131
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 PM MDT THU OCT 18 2018
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS MAINLY FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS, WITH MODERATE RAINFALL
EXPECTED FROM A FEW CELLS. LOOKING AHEAD, OUR CLOUDY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WE MAY SEE A BREAK
IN THE CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BRING THE
CLOUDS BACK ON SUNDAY. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THE THREAT OF STORMS MAY ALSO MAKE
A RETURN AT THAT TIME. WE LOOK TO FINALLY DRY OUT LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER UTAH AND ATTENDANT TROUGH ALOFT
OVER NORTHERN BAJA CA. PHASING OF THESE FEATURES, HAS DEEPENED THE
FETCH OF MID AND UL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, WHILE
ASSOCIATED SFC AND LOW PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DRAW
OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES AS
MISSED BY SOLUTIONS FROM RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS, ARE
MOVING UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SO CAL TROUGH. LIFT WITH THESE
FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA, WITH IMPRESSIVE LOOKING COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ON RADAR. DON'T LET THIS FOOL YOU HOWEVER,
AS REPORTED 6 HOUR RAIN TOTALS FROM GAUGES ACROSS THE AREA, RANGE
FROM JUST OVER A TRACE TO 0.50". OUR UPPER AIR RELEASES WITH THE
LAST 2 RUNS HINTED AT THE LIFT, WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF POSITIVE
CAPE THIS MORNING AND A 5-6 KFT INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH, FROM
THE 18/00Z REPORTS. THIS YIELDED A PW INCREASE OF 0.41" FROM 0.59"
YESTERDAY, TO 1" THIS MORNING.
THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH, WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE BY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE A REX BLOCK
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. WE WILL BE IN THE ACTIVE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS BLOCK; UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INDUCED
LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER SO CAL. THIS WILL DRAW ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE, MODEST SFC AND
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION AS A
CONSEQUENCE, WILL SERVE TO DRAW ADDITIONAL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
BACK OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. APPROACH
OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EARLY SAT MORNING, WILL ALSO HELP
TO MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.
THE REX BLOCK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED, AND BREAKS DOWN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE LIFTING OF THE SO CAL.
LOW INTO ANOTHER OPEN WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ROUNDS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS, WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FOCUS. UPPER WAVE FINALLY APPEARS AS IT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
NEXT WEEK AND RETURN DRIER AIR ON WEST WINDS TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXCEPTION MAY BE OUR WESTERN ZONES THAT
BORDER ARIZONA. HERE CLOUD COVER MAY PERIODICALLY DISSIPATE
ENOUGH, TO OFFER SOME ASSISTANCE BY OUR OLD FRIEND THE SUN.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, INDICATING A POSSIBLE WARMUP FOR
US AT THAT TIME.
AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z-20/00Z
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 15Z-18Z WITH
SCT-BKN0010-020 OVC020-030 AT ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY 2-4SM BR BLO
BKN010 POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z. AFTER 15Z SOME BREAKS IN THE LOWER
CLOUDS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY WEST OF RIO GRANDE WITH FEW-SCT030-040
BKN040-060. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-15KTS WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE ON WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND WEST OF KLSB.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT
HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE BORDERLAND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
30-40 PERCENT OVER THE LOWLANDS AND HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO SHIFT AROUND AS UPPER
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. UNTIL THIS TROUGH PUSHES EAST, THERE WILL
BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP VENT RATES POOR
TO FAIR MOST DAYS DURING THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 46 67 52 65 / 10 10 10 30
SIERRA BLANCA 42 63 46 58 / 20 10 20 30
LAS CRUCES 44 64 48 64 / 20 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 44 65 47 65 / 30 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 50 38 46 / 40 30 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 66 47 64 / 20 20 0 10
SILVER CITY 42 57 45 60 / 0 10 10 10
DEMING 44 65 49 64 / 0 0 10 20
LORDSBURG 44 66 50 66 / 0 0 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 66 52 64 / 10 10 10 30
DELL CITY 45 65 48 64 / 20 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 48 68 51 64 / 20 10 20 30
LOMA LINDA 44 61 48 58 / 20 10 20 20
FABENS 47 67 51 65 / 10 10 10 30
SANTA TERESA 45 65 51 64 / 10 10 10 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 64 49 64 / 20 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 45 64 47 64 / 20 20 10 10
HATCH 45 66 48 65 / 20 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 46 65 51 64 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 45 64 49 64 / 20 20 10 10
MAYHILL 40 56 40 51 / 30 20 10 0
MESCALERO 41 57 41 53 / 30 30 0 0
TIMBERON 41 55 41 52 / 30 30 20 0
WINSTON 38 60 39 57 / 20 20 20 10
HILLSBORO 42 62 44 61 / 20 20 20 10
SPACEPORT 43 65 46 64 / 20 20 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 38 62 40 61 / 10 20 10 10
HURLEY 42 59 45 60 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 37 68 43 65 / 0 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 39 66 45 65 / 0 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 43 60 46 60 / 10 0 20 10
ANIMAS 44 65 49 65 / 0 0 10 20
HACHITA 43 64 48 64 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 64 48 63 / 0 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 45 64 49 61 / 0 0 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page