906
FXUS64 KEPZ 082338
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
- SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LOWLANDS.
- LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REMAINING HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 98-102; EXCEPT HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM 101 TO 106.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
WV SHOWS A MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE GILA REGION
HAVING HIGHEST MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST THE LEAST. UPPER HIGH JUST
OFF THE COAST OF SOCAL WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA.
LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH MOST STORMS OVER THE NW WITH
SOME ISOLATED STORMS ON THE SACS. LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT DRY LOW
LEVELS WOULD SUPPORT SOME MODEST OUTFLOWS ONTO THE LOWLANDS. MAY
SEE SOME LATE EVENING STORMS MOVE FROM THE NORTH AND INTO OTERO
COUNTY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING
TOO FAR SOUTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THU EITHER, BUT
THERE WILL BE A SMALL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INSTABILITY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER OUTFLOWS AND SOME ISOLATED
LOWLAND STORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE HOTTEST DURING THESE DAYS AS WELL WITH THE LOWLANDS IN
THE 100-105 RANGE. MAY SEE A COUPLE PLACES ABOVE 105 IN THE LOWER
RGV BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT ADVISORIES.
FRI/SAT WILL SEE THE UPPER HIGH BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND SETUP A RETURN TO NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE REMAINS
MARGINAL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S, BUT STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT FAVORING PUSHING OUTFLOWS ONTO THE LOWLANDS FROM NE TO
SW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER STORMS AREAWIDE. NBM POPS WERE BASICALLY
NON-EXISTENT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE RGV AND
INCREASED BOTH DAYS TO ISOLATED/LOW CHANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL
START A GRADUAL COOL DOWN HERE WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER N AND
A LITTLE EAST ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PUTS THE AREA IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE
REGION. LOOKING AT TRAJECTORIES THOUGH, THE AREA WILL NOT BE IN A
DIRECT GULF TAP WITH THE BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF US IN MEXICO
STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE THOUGH
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH. NO MATTER WHAT, WE
WILL HAVE "COOLER" TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WHICH IS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER THE GILA REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AZ
BORDER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN OUTFLOW
REACHING KDMN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY
WITH SOME GUSTINESS. KTCS COULD SEE A SHOWER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. THINGS QUIET
DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE BIGGEST FIRE CONCERN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWLANDS INTO THE 100-105 RANGE AND THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE 90S. RH'S WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH
SOME 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THOUGH
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND JUST SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. THE UPPER HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING IN A MORE
FAVORABLE MONSOONAL FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND DAILY STORM
CHANCES AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MIN RH'S INTO THE 20S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 102 78 104 / 0 0 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 96 71 98 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 70 100 72 102 / 10 0 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 73 100 76 101 / 20 20 20 40
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 57 78 / 30 40 40 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 100 74 102 / 10 10 20 20
SILVER CITY 66 94 67 94 / 20 50 40 40
DEMING 69 101 71 103 / 0 10 20 20
LORDSBURG 70 100 70 100 / 10 20 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 101 78 103 / 0 0 20 0
DELL CITY 69 99 72 101 / 0 10 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 72 102 77 104 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 67 94 71 95 / 0 10 20 20
FABENS 73 102 76 104 / 0 0 20 10
SANTA TERESA 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 101 79 103 / 10 10 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 99 74 102 / 10 10 20 0
HATCH 71 103 73 105 / 10 0 20 10
COLUMBUS 73 104 76 104 / 0 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 70 101 73 100 / 0 20 20 30
MAYHILL 59 89 61 89 / 30 60 50 50
MESCALERO 56 88 60 90 / 30 40 30 50
TIMBERON 55 84 58 86 / 20 30 30 40
WINSTON 60 91 62 93 / 20 40 40 20
HILLSBORO 68 97 70 99 / 10 30 30 20
SPACEPORT 67 100 70 102 / 10 10 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 55 94 60 95 / 20 50 50 40
HURLEY 67 97 67 98 / 20 50 30 30
CLIFF 61 99 67 98 / 20 50 40 20
MULE CREEK 58 96 64 97 / 20 30 30 30
FAYWOOD 66 95 67 97 / 20 30 30 30
ANIMAS 68 100 70 100 / 10 20 20 10
HACHITA 69 100 69 99 / 10 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 99 69 97 / 10 20 40 20
CLOVERDALE 66 93 65 91 / 0 30 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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