781
FXUS64 KEPZ 252315
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
515 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
- RECORD MARCH WARMTH THROUGH TOMORROW. LOWLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID NINETIES.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY EAST WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL TODAY AS THE HIGH IS SITTING RIGHT
OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE HIGH WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THURSDAY, CENTERING THE HIGH A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR US IS CONTINUED
VERY WARM/HOT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 20-22 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BREEZIER TOMORROW BUT THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE GILA REGION, LUNA COUNTY, AND PORTIONS OF DONA ANA WITH SPEEDS
UPWARDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN IN THIS AREA DUE TO THE WINDS,
DRY FUELS, AND VERY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
SOME RELIEF IN TEMPERATURES IS ON THE WAY! A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS SET TO PUSH IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST
TO WEST. WEST FACING SLOPES, LIKE WEST EL PASO AND WEST SLOPES OF
THE HUECO TANKS, WILL SEE THE GUSTIEST CONDITIONS.
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH OR SO CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT WEST FACING SLOPES
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
POSSIBLE. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HUECOS TANKS REGION THAT
MORNING AS THAT LOOKS TO SEE THE GUSTIEST WINDS. MORE THAN LIKELY
CAN EXPECT A DUSTY HAZE IN THE AIR FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO DUST COMING
IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE FRONT. OUR LOCAL DUST SOURCES IN
AND AROUND DEMING AND THE LORDSBURG PLAYA WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING DUST ISSUES.
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMES IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
(LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S). MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL DIP DOWN OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MOISTURE PUSHING IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANGE FOR VIRGA AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE WINDS 240-280 AT 5-10 KNOTS ACROSS S NM , LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS FAR W TX. WEST FLOW INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
ABNORMAL WARMTH AND CRITICAL MIN RHS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.
WE'VE BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THURSDAY TO SEE IF THERE'S ANY CHANGES
IN THE WIND SPEEDS, WHICH HAS BEEN THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS TIME AROUND. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO
LOOK MARGINAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, HOWEVER MIN
RHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. DEAD, DIEBACK FUELS,
AND ERCS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE ADDS TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER. AN
EXTENDED DURATION OF SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM RHS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FIRE BEHAVIOR. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW RED FLAG
THRESHOLDS BUT ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS SUGGEST A RED FLAG SITUATION.
NM111 COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW BUT FUELS
ARE IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NM110 AS THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS,
BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ZONE HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE. BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL SPREAD EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
AND EVEN INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AND WILL ALSO INCREASE MIN RHS TO 15-
20% ACROSS THE LOWLANDS (25-30% IN MOUNTAINS) THAT AFTERNOON. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MIN RHS WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT 20-
40%.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS WITH THE RETURN OF
CRITICAL MIN RHS IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING VIRGA SHOWERS AND LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A BIT
CONCERNING CONSIDERING HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE AREA,
LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD BECOME A CONCERN. LOOKING IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY COULD BE OUR NEXT WINDY DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 96 57 75 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 92 52 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 52 93 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 92 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 70 37 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 93 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 82 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 51 93 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 48 88 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 94 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 97 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 99 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 88 52 66 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 97 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 93 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 95 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 94 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 97 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 93 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 53 93 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 53 85 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 81 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 52 79 42 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 85 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 91 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 92 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 83 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 86 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 90 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 85 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 87 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 52 90 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 89 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 91 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 85 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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