798
FXUS64 KEPZ 241126
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AROUND EL PASO AND
LIKELY PUSHING UP INTO OTERO COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING GIVEN HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND VERY
SATURATED CONDITIONS. BUT OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE FAR
MORE SCATTERED THAN LAST NIGHT.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR
DONA ANA, OTERO, EL PASO, AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED, BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS HIGHLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG RUN OFF DUE TO SATURATED GROUND.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- QUIETER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MORE MOISTURE ARRIVING MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, POSSIBLY WITH SOME TROPICAL REMNANTS INVOLVED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHWARDS FROM NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. RADAR SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BUT IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING.
CAMS HAVE ALL BEEN HAVING A ROUGH TIME ALL DAY KEEPING UP WITH
WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON. THE 00Z RRFS WEAKENS MOST OF THE PRECIP
AS IT LIFTS NORTH, EXCEPT AROUND THE EL PASO AREA AFTER 06Z. THE
03Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRESENT REALITY, AND
CONCURS WITH WEAKENING MOST OF THE PRECIP BAND EXCEPT FOR NEAR AN
MCV THAT LIFTS UP OVER EL PASO AND INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM. WE'VE ALSO BEEN SEEING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE EL PASO AREA IN
THE PAST 45 MINUTES OR SO, PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK THAT SHOULD BE NOSING INTO THE AREA ABOUT
NOW, PER THE 00Z GFS. ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR THE HUDSPETH/CULBERSON COUNTY LINE, BUT SO FAR THIS
BAND HAS BEEN FAIRLY WEAK.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW (THURSDAY), WE'LL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY, THEN THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE APPEAR
MOST FAVORED, AND NEAR/EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WE'LL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH THE WESTWARD EDGE, AS THERE'S A CHANCE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY STRAFE LUNA COUNTY AND UP TOWARDS THE BLACK RANGE,
WEST OF THE CONTINUING PORTION OF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE ALREADY-
SATURATED GROUND AROUND EL PASO AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NM, AS WELL AS
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, ARE OBVIOUSLY A CONCERN.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY,
WITH LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER EAST. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE ON THE DOWNTREND, AND A MORE WEST TO EAST STORM
MOTION WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING.
QUIETER FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH 30S DEWPOINTS SEEPING INTO SW NEW
MEXICO. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
REMNANTS OF POLO MAY COME INTO PLAY ON TUESDAY. MOST TRACK
GUIDANCE SWINGS POLO OUT WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, WHEN UP
ACROSS SONORA TOWARDS NEW MEXICO. THIS IS USUALLY A LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR REALIZING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH A TROPICAL
SYSTEM, WITH FLOW MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE STORM, AND MORE
MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS TO CROSS VERSUS COMING UP
FROM THE TIP OF BAJA. ALSO, THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THE TRACK,
REGARDLESS OF TRACK GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THE TROUGH THAT ATTEMPTS
TO LIFT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLEWARD COULD VERY WELL MISS,
BRINGING THE CENTER ON MORE OF A WEST-EAST TRACK, OR LEAVING IT TO
WANDER OFFSHORE. WHILE WE REALLY DON'T NEED THE MOISTURE, THERE'S
NO NEED TO HYPE THE POTENTIAL YET EITHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING NEAR KTCS. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE AWAY BY
SUNRISE. VERY LOW CLOUDS AT KELP AND KLRU SHOULD STAY THROUGH A
PORTION OF THE MORNING AND THEN RISE TO VFR CATEGORIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSING EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHICH MAY GIVE KELP A SHOT TO SEE A STORM. TONIGHT AFTER 00Z,
A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH UP FROM MEXICO
WHICH COULD GIVE ALL TAF SITES A SHOT TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM. WIND
SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT AOB 10KT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE FLOODING THREAT TODAY WILL START TO
TAPER OFF AND EVEN MORESO INTO FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AND AN INCREASED FLOODING THREAT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS TODAY AND TOMORROW INCREASE TO 50-65% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 80-
95 % IN THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED TODAY
FOCUSING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOCUSED
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. MIN RHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE 30-45% IN
THE LOWLANDS AND 45-60% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. 20 FOOT WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-10 MPH (OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS). HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 79 63 84 / 80 40 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 79 58 81 / 60 30 40 10
LAS CRUCES 58 76 60 82 / 70 30 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 77 60 83 / 70 60 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 45 58 44 62 / 80 70 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 75 59 80 / 90 40 10 0
SILVER CITY 54 73 54 78 / 80 30 10 0
DEMING 56 78 59 84 / 60 20 10 0
LORDSBURG 58 78 61 84 / 60 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 79 63 84 / 80 30 10 0
DELL CITY 60 80 61 86 / 70 60 40 10
FORT HANCOCK 63 86 65 88 / 70 30 40 10
LOMA LINDA 56 74 59 77 / 80 50 20 0
FABENS 62 83 63 85 / 70 30 20 0
SANTA TERESA 60 78 62 84 / 70 30 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 78 64 83 / 80 50 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 77 60 82 / 70 40 10 0
HATCH 59 79 61 84 / 80 40 10 0
COLUMBUS 62 81 64 86 / 50 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 76 60 81 / 80 50 20 0
MAYHILL 52 72 50 77 / 80 60 20 10
MESCALERO 49 69 49 72 / 70 70 20 10
TIMBERON 48 66 48 71 / 80 60 40 10
WINSTON 51 69 50 75 / 80 50 10 0
HILLSBORO 57 76 56 80 / 90 40 10 0
SPACEPORT 56 75 57 81 / 80 50 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 50 73 49 78 / 80 30 10 0
HURLEY 54 74 54 80 / 80 30 10 0
CLIFF 58 81 57 85 / 70 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 55 77 57 81 / 80 20 0 0
FAYWOOD 56 74 56 79 / 80 30 10 0
ANIMAS 59 80 62 84 / 40 10 0 0
HACHITA 58 78 61 84 / 40 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 81 62 85 / 40 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 57 80 60 83 / 20 20 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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