415
FXUS64 KEPZ 051218
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
618 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH SATURDAY
LIMITED MOSTLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- CONTINUED RISKS FOR FLOODING FROM STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
- DRIER AND WARMER ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MANY LOWLAND
AREAS SEEING THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHEAST PULLING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH IT. MODELS SHOW THE LOW BETWEEN EL PASO AND THE BIG BEND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MCV, WHICH WAS
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY CAUSED SOME SUBSIDENCE
TO ITS LEE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WELL
OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW THE MAIN DRIVER.
MODELS SHOWING MODEST CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND PWS OF .75 TO
1.00 INCH WELL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY, WITH AREAS
FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES. DCAPES AS
HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40-50 DEGREES POINT
TOWARDS WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT, BUT FLOODING AND HAIL WILL
ALSO LIKELY BE PRESENT.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LESS STORM ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THIS IS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE EXITING UPPER LOW. LOW LEVEL WARMTH INCREASES AND 850 MB TEMPS
SUPPORT LOWLAND TRIPLE DIGITS, IF NOT BY SUNDAY, THEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING
ONSHORE, DISPLACING THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER EAST. THOUGH BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND MOVING IT TO OUR AREA, THE GFS DIGS THE PACIFIC LOW
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH (TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY) AND HENCE
MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWS. THUS, GFS WEDNESDAY SHOWS LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE ECMWF WEDNESDAY JUST RATES A SLIGHT CHANCE.
THE TABLES FLIP THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY GFS LOW PASSES BY,
BRINGING IN DRIER WEST FLOW. THE ECMWF ON THURSDAY STILL SHOWS
SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP SINCE THE UPPER WINDS REMAIN MORE
SOUTHERLY. HENCE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND TULAROSA BASIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DUST FALLOUT FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LAST NIGHT.
IMPACTS ARE LIMITED, BUT SOME AUTOMATED OBS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
FALSE CEILINGS. KDNA, FOR EXAMPLE, IS CARRYING BKN003, THOUGH
THERE IS NO NOTICEABLE REDUCTION IN VERTICAL VISIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, STARTING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND DRIFTING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, NOW THAT
WE ARE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH AND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
THAT'LL BE MOVING FROM CHIHUAHUA INTO THE BIG BEND. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THE NE LOOK TO ARRIVE AT ELP AROUND 00Z, WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF INITIATING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 03Z AS THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH INTO
SHOWERS BEFORE DISSIPATING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
ONE FINAL DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA TODAY,
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY, MORE TYPICAL JUNE WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE
LOWLAND DESERTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 10S NEAR THE ARIZONA
BORDER TODAY, AND WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 95 72 99 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 86 60 93 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 60 94 65 97 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 91 66 96 / 20 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 69 50 74 / 30 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 94 68 95 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 56 86 58 87 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 61 99 65 99 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 62 95 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 94 70 97 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 89 60 98 / 30 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 63 95 66 101 / 30 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 85 63 91 / 30 0 0 0
FABENS 63 96 66 100 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 61 93 66 97 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 93 75 97 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 93 61 97 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 61 97 64 99 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 97 70 98 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 90 60 95 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 79 55 86 / 20 50 0 0
MESCALERO 50 79 54 84 / 30 20 0 0
TIMBERON 47 75 50 81 / 30 30 0 0
WINSTON 54 86 57 87 / 30 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 62 92 65 93 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 56 92 59 96 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 90 46 88 / 20 10 0 0
HURLEY 57 90 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 95 45 94 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 91 40 89 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 90 61 90 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 61 95 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 94 63 94 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 93 62 93 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 58 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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