431
FXUS64 KEPZ 072323
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
523 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE GILA AND
LOWLANDS ADJACENT TO THE ARIZONA BORDER.
- LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REMAINING HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 98-102; EXCEPT HIGHS THURSDAY/FRIDAY 101-106.
- INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE EVER-SO-PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD THE
NORTHWEST PART OF NM TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN MEANDERING WESTWARD OVER
SW AZ AND SOCAL TOMORROW. MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH EACH
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
SPREADING OUTFLOWS TO THE LOWLANDS WHICH MAY TRIGGER OFF SOME
ISOLATED STORMS. PWS WILL RANGE FROM 1" TO AROUND 1.2" WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE BEING SEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WEAK STEERING FLOW
AND INSUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WHICH WILL ADD TO THE FLOODING THREAT WITH STORMS. BY
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY THE HIGH LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTH OVER UTAH AND
COLORADO. AN INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GULF AND MAY HEAD UP
TO THE BORDERLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD BRING MORE MOISTURE (PWS OF 1.2" - 1.3") AND AREAWIDE
RAIN CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE TODAY
AND TOMORROW BUT HOTTER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT FRIDAY LOOKS THE HOTTEST RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES IN
EL PASO AND THE LOWER VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (HIGHS OF 105F+).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCT250 ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
FEW070-120. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KNOTS ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20
KNOTS. STORM OUTFLOWS COULD CAUSE SHIFTS AT ANY SITE THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY DMN, AND TAFS WILL AMENDED AS NEEDED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL MIN RHS PERSISTS IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VALUES GENERALLY 11-20%. AREA MOUNTAIN MIN RHS
WILL GENERALLY BE 20-35%. 20 FOOT WINDS EACH AFTERNOON WILL STAY
LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH WITH CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXISTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS. SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WITH MORE AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY HEADING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL INCREASE MIN RHS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT EVEN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE HOTTEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 99 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 94 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 67 97 70 101 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 97 73 100 / 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 51 74 54 77 / 0 20 10 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 98 71 101 / 0 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 64 92 65 94 / 10 40 20 50
DEMING 66 100 68 103 / 0 10 20 10
LORDSBURG 69 99 70 100 / 10 20 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 99 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 66 97 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 65 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 71 100 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 97 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 98 78 102 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 98 72 101 / 0 10 10 0
HATCH 69 101 71 104 / 0 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 72 101 74 104 / 0 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 67 96 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 86 59 88 / 0 20 10 60
MESCALERO 54 86 57 88 / 0 20 20 30
TIMBERON 52 82 55 85 / 0 10 0 30
WINSTON 59 89 60 92 / 10 50 20 30
HILLSBORO 66 95 69 98 / 10 30 20 30
SPACEPORT 65 97 68 100 / 0 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 92 59 95 / 10 50 20 50
HURLEY 63 95 65 97 / 10 30 20 40
CLIFF 64 98 65 100 / 10 30 30 40
MULE CREEK 62 94 63 97 / 20 30 30 30
FAYWOOD 64 93 66 96 / 10 20 20 40
ANIMAS 69 99 71 101 / 20 20 20 0
HACHITA 67 98 69 100 / 0 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 99 71 100 / 0 10 20 20
CLOVERDALE 65 93 66 94 / 10 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page