637
FXUS64 KEPZ 220343
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
943 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 940 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN.
- NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DUE IN MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY, AND PERHAPS A
LINGERING SHOWER OR STORM OVER OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY; OTHERWISE REMAINING
AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US IS FINALLY DRIFTING EAST AT
THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CWA WITHIN THIS LONG-
WAVE, WITH ONE WEAK SHORT-WAVE JUST NOW PASSING THROUGH THE AREA,
AND THE MAIN LOW NOW CUT OFF NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE HUNG AROUND TODAY AND AIDED IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THAT SHORT-WAVE MOVED ACROSS.
POST SHORT-WAVE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT ON FRIDAY AS
WINDS TURN FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, ALOFT, BAJA UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT OVER THE SONORAN AND CHIHUAHUAN DESERTS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO BEFORE FRITTERING AWAY BY SATURDAY. IN IT'S PLACE, WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL LAST INTO
SUNDAY, LEAVING BEHIND A DRY FRIDAY-WEEKEND.
NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVING TO NEAR SOCAL SUNDAY NIGHT TO WESTERN
ARIZONA MONDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
40S, INITIALLY TO AREAS WEST OF THE RG VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MON AFTERNOON IN THE WEST, SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EVENING.
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY, SCOURING AWAY
MOST OF THE MOISTURE; HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, BUT OTHERWISE
AT SEASONABLE LEVELS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT100 SCT-BKN250. SURFACE
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
TO SOUTHWEST 12-16G25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND MIN RH 10 TO 15%. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH
VERY GOOD VENT RATES. TYPICAL LATE MAY TEMPERATURES. EVEN LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HUMIDITY REMAINS VERY LOW.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS GROWTH OVER LOCAL FORESTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANY RAIN.
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL IMPROVE FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR LINCOLN AND GILA NATIONAL FORESTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH MIN RH INCREASING TO 20-30%. RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LOW AND NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE ERCS LONG-TERM. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR NEW
LIGHTNING STARTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 89 65 90 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 84 57 85 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 66 43 68 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 53 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 87 64 89 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 89 55 90 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 59 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 57 81 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 59 90 61 91 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 87 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 89 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 79 49 79 / 0 10 0 20
MESCALERO 46 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 43 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 46 79 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 86 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 81 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 47 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 86 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 81 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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