913
FXUS64 KEPZ 271942
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1242 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS, SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT WINDS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE, THOUGH DAY CLOUD PHASE RGB SATELLITE
STILL SHOWS SOME STRATUS HANGING AROUND THE DELL VALLEY AND SALT
FLAT AREA. MESONET OBS ARE STARTING TO CRAWL ABOVE SATURATION, SO
ANY FOG IS PRESUMABLY NOT WIDESPREAD. COLDEST TEMPS IN THE CWA
(28-29) ARE IN THE SALT FLAT AREA RIGHT NOW THANKS TO THE CLOUD
COVER. EVEN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ARE WARMING UP, WITH 40S
ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES, AND FREEZING TEMPS MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.
MAYHILL RAWS TEMP OF 52 SEEMED HIGH, BUT OTHER STATIONS AROUND
WEED AND SACRAMENTO ARE VOUCHING FOR IT. WILL ACTUALLY HAVE TO
BUMP TEMPS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND
ANOTHER PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH NO MOISTURE OR OTHER
FANFARE OTHER THAN A BIT OF AN EASTERLY PUSH IN ITS WAKE ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL IN SW NEW MEXICO
(LOWER 60S) TO ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE (MID/UPPER-50S), AND 6 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE IN HUDSPETH COUNTY (LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S).
SOME CLIMATE INFO...
LOOKING AT THE COCORAHS PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS,
IT'S ALMOST LIKE BIZARRO-LAND, WITH THE THE LOWER AMOUNTS ACROSS
GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTIES, AND A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OVER THE EL
PASO AREA FOR ONCE. OVERALL, 0.75 TO 1.00" WAS COMMON OVER THE
GILA REGION INTO SIERRA COUNTY, EXCEPT AROUND 1.50" AROUND THE
BURRO MOUNTAINS. 1.50 TO 2" AMOUNTS WERE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO DONA ANA COUNTY. 2 TO 3 INCHES WERE
COMMON ACROSS THE SACRAMENTOS (MUCH OF IT SNOW AND ICE, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 8000 FEET). AROUND EL PASO, 1.50 TO 2.50 FROM THE WEST SIDE
AND WRAPPING AROUND THE FRANKLINS INTO CENTRAL EP. THEN 2 TO 3
INCHES IN NE EL PASO, TAPERING OFF TO 1.50 INCHES IN THE EAST AND
OVER TOWARDS HORIZON CITY. HUDSPETH COUNTY REPORTS ARE VERY
SPARSE, WITH JUST OVER AN INCH AT FORT HANCOCK, AND AROUND 0.6 TO
0.7 INCHES AT SIERRA BLANCA (ASSUMING SNOW MELTED WELL ENOUGH) AND
AT THE FORT QUITMAN RIVER GAUGE. THE TIMING PROBABLY BODES WELL
FOR SPRING WILDFLOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NE EP.
FOR EL PASO, WE'RE CURRENTLY AT THE THIRD WETTEST JANUARY ON
RECORD, WITH 1.64 INCHES. THIS IS BEATEN ONLY BY 1.81 INCHES IN
2007, AND 1.84 INCHES IN 1949.
BUT LET'S CHECK OURSELVES. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM FELL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. NOT
MUCH UP NORTH. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE RIO GRANDE
HEADWATERS REMAIN AROUND 45-50% OF MEDIAN. LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN IN
THE BLACK RANGE IS AT 29% OF MEDIAN. FLOW AT THE NARROWS NORTH OF
ELEPHANT BUTTE WENT FROM ABOUT 325 CFS BEFORE THE PRECIP, TO JUST
AROUND 450 CFS LAST NIGHT, AND IS ALREADY DROPPING. ELEPHANT BUTTE
IS UP JUST A FOOT IN THE PAST WEEK, WITH NO NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
RATE. RECALL SIERRA COUNTY RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN IN
THE CWA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN SW NEW MEXICO, AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. RECENT PRECIPITATION, AND SNOW
COVER IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WILL PROMOTE HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
WITH PILE BURN PROJECTS, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE VENT RATES.
THESE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED (MOSTLY 'POOR') ACROSS THE AREA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE GILA ON THURSDAY. AN
EASTERLY PUSH ON SATURDAY WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS, WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 30 56 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 24 50 32 50 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 27 53 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 22 51 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 39 28 39 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 28 56 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 28 54 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 29 58 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 31 56 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 19 46 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 26 59 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 21 48 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 28 58 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 28 55 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 26 53 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 22 55 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 25 58 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 28 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 21 49 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 21 53 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 17 48 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 21 44 27 47 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 23 53 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 28 57 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 24 55 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 18 55 19 58 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 26 55 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 24 61 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 20 58 21 62 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 29 55 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 28 58 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 56 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 26 58 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 31 56 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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