836
FXUS64 KEPZ 061755
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1155 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1155 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
- THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON; DRY ELSEWHERE.
- DRIER AND HOTTER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MANY LOWLAND AREAS
SEEING THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE SLOW-MOVING UL LOW THAT HAS GIVEN OUR AREA THUNDERSTORMS THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW'S EXIT MEANS HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASINGLY
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, WHICH WILL ALL BUT END OUR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO
FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OUR WEATHER WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INITIALLY IT WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER NM
BEFORE TRANSLATING AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AS A RESULT WITH MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO SEE THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A
TROUGH WILL CUT INTO THIS RIDGE FOR TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
CIRCULATING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, SO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES
TO OUR MOUNTAINS.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW AS THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH STALLS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE W'LY FLOW WILL FLUSH OUT
MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH) AND
SEND OUR TEMPERATURES HIGHER. MEX GUIDANCE HAS 105 FOR EL PASO ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, FROM OUR SOUTH THOUGH THE EURO AND GFS DISAGREE ON ITS
INTENSITY. AS I MENTIONED, MOISTURE WILL BE LINGERING TO OUR SOUTH
AS WELL, AND THE HIGH WILL START DRAGGING THAT MOISTURE NORTH WITH
IT. THE GFS IS RATHER BULLISH FOR PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT FOR NOW
THE NBM HAS POPS LIMITED TO THE SACS. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND EVEN
THE PATTERN WITHIN THE GFS (LACK OF CLEAR FORCING), A DRIER
SOLUTION IS LIKELY MORE REASONABLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
FEW(100-150)/250. WINDS WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. DIRECTION WILL LARGELY BE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER DARK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE ALSO DROPPING AFTERNOON MIN RH
VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE-DIGITS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT IT WILL BE DRY
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH WITH EXCELLENT VENTING
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND GOOD VENTING EAST OF THE RIVER.
DRY AIR COMPLETELY TAKES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10%. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 100. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT WHILE VENTING RANGES VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH WITH VERY
SLOW MOISTURE GAINS NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 94 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 65 96 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 67 96 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 75 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 96 66 97 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 58 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 65 99 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 62 94 62 97 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 98 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 98 62 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 66 101 68 104 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 63 91 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 101 67 104 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 66 96 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 65 97 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 70 98 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 63 95 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 54 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 51 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 57 87 56 89 / 10 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 65 93 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 62 96 63 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 54 89 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 60 91 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 57 94 57 97 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 56 89 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 62 90 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 61 94 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 94 62 97 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 62 94 62 97 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 88 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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