750
FXUS64 KEPZ 052331
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
DUE TO SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FAVORING LOCAL MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE (PWS 1.2-1.4") REMAINS FOR TODAY WITH MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS STILL IN PLACE, RESULTING
IN A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING STORM INITIATION. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE MORE FAVORED E OF THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE'S
BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG). SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND HIGH RAIN RATES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,
MOST LIKELY IN THE NW SACS WHERE THE HREF HAS MAX RAINFALL UP TO 2".
OUTFLOW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CONVECTION
DISSIPATES IN THE EVENING.
THE UPPER HIGH MOVES A BIT SOUTH ON SUN OVER OK AS FORCING REMAINS
LIMITED. 90TH %-ILE PWS AND THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHIFT N AND W
TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND E OF THE RGV
FOR SUN WITH ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE, EXCLUDING THE SACS WHERE
SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER HIGH'S PLACEMENT AND THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SITTING OVER WESTERN AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH THE HIGH WILL NUDGE THE
MOISTURE PLUME FURTHER S AND W, BUT PWS HOLD IN THE 1.1-1.2" RANGE,
ENOUGH TO GIVE MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS THROUGH THU. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD LOWER OUT WEST
AFTER MON. AS AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AROUND
MIDWEEK, THE HIGH IS MODELED TO CENTRALIZE OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS
FEATURE WOULD KEEP THE TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD,
BUT RECYCLED MOISTURE AROUND THE RIDGE KEEPS LOW-END STORM CHANCES
ALIVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S. RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS
ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN AREAS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT WILL DIMINISH SOON
AFTER SUNSET. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING EAST TO WEST TONIGHT ANYWHERE FROM 06-09Z WHICH WOULD GIVE
RAIN SHOWERS TO KELP AND KLRU IF THIS DOES END UP HAPPENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS. STORMS WILL POP UP
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE A SHOT TO
SEE A STORM OR SHOWER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY, SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LINCOLN NAT'L
FOREST WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SLOW
STORM MOTION AND HIGH RAIN RATES. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, FAVORING EASTERN LOWLANDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. PREVAILING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. FROM SUN ONWARD, STORM CHANCES AND HEAVY
RAINFALL FAVOR WESTERN AREAS WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEP.
WINDS STAY LIGHT, SHIFTING MORE E-SE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 25-35% IN THE LOWLANDS, 35-60% IN THE MTNS.
VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO GOOD TODAY, THEN MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 97 73 96 / 20 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 91 64 91 / 20 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 94 68 94 / 20 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 67 93 / 20 30 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 51 70 48 70 / 30 50 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 93 70 92 / 20 30 30 10
SILVER CITY 63 88 63 87 / 10 30 40 40
DEMING 68 96 68 95 / 20 20 30 0
LORDSBURG 69 94 69 93 / 10 20 40 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 96 75 95 / 20 10 10 0
DELL CITY 70 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 99 72 98 / 20 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 89 67 88 / 20 10 10 0
FABENS 72 97 71 97 / 20 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 71 95 71 94 / 20 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 95 73 94 / 20 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 94 69 93 / 20 20 30 0
HATCH 70 97 70 96 / 20 20 30 0
COLUMBUS 72 96 72 95 / 20 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 68 94 68 93 / 30 10 10 0
MAYHILL 57 82 55 82 / 20 30 10 30
MESCALERO 55 82 53 81 / 20 50 20 50
TIMBERON 55 80 53 80 / 30 40 10 30
WINSTON 60 84 59 83 / 20 40 40 60
HILLSBORO 68 91 68 90 / 20 30 40 20
SPACEPORT 68 94 68 93 / 20 30 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 87 57 86 / 10 50 40 60
HURLEY 64 90 64 89 / 10 30 40 20
CLIFF 66 95 66 94 / 10 20 40 40
MULE CREEK 63 91 64 90 / 10 20 30 50
FAYWOOD 66 89 66 88 / 20 30 40 20
ANIMAS 68 94 69 93 / 10 20 40 10
HACHITA 68 94 68 92 / 10 30 40 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 93 67 92 / 10 20 30 0
CLOVERDALE 63 88 64 87 / 10 30 40 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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