670
FXUS64 KEPZ 242333
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
533 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020
AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES SKC-SCT100 THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS.
ROGASH
PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS WEEKEND, BUT WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CALM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN MONDAY MORNING, AND
WILL COOL OUR TEMPERATURES TO 10 - 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDY MONDAY, BUT THE AREA WILL STAY MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND NORMAL NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA WILL GET FLATTENED
OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP. BEFORE
THE WINDS TURN WESTERLY TOMORROW, THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO START THE
EVENING AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE S TO SE AREAS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. EXPECT SKIES TO BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND WITH DRY LOW LEVELS
STILL IN PLACE, SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS DROP TO LOWS SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND BELOW GUIDANCE AGAIN.
FOR FRIDAY, AS WINDS TURN WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP TO
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. RECORD FOR KELP IS 96 DEGREES, WENT
WITH 98 GIVEN DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS AND H85 TEMPERATURES INTO THE 31C
RANGE. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH SEVERAL
OTHER RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS PW'S FALL
INTO THE 0.50 TO 0.65 INCH RANGE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST
OVER AZ, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 850MB
TEMPS REACHING 30C. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE HOT ENOUGH FOR
HITTING 100F IN THE DESERT, AS OUR SUNLIGHT HOURS ARE LESS AND 500MB
HEIGHTS TOP OUT AROUND 588 DECIMETERS.
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES WILL INDUCE A LEE SIDE TROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH, SLIDING DOWN THE CO/KS BORDER AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT, INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A RATHER LARGE AND COLD SYSTEM THAT BEGINS TO SHOVES THIS SURFACE
TROUGH SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SUNDAY, BRINING COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES TO THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A 1020MB SURFACE AIR MASS
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME STRONGER WINDS AS IT PUSHES WEST, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST
SLOPES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MID DAY, AS THE COOLER AIR FILLS UP OUR CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 - 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS DRY, SO DRY THAT THERE WILL BE MINIMAL TO NO
CLOUD COVER WITH THIS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DIGS DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY,
BRINING NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA AGAIN. A FEW SHORT WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO OUR EAST TO
WASH UP TO OUR AREA AGAIN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK. WINDS COULD BE BREEZY FROM A
TIGHTENING IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION THREATS, AS PW'S STAY AT OR BELOW 0.75 INCHES.
A RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD OVER NV FRIDAY, WHICH COULD WARM
TEMPERATURES OUT WEST TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH MOVES OVER OUR
AREA NEXT WEEKEND, BUT GFS WEAKENS IT BY THE TIME IT REACHES US.
ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP FROM THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES AREA
NEXT SUNDAY, WHICH COULD DROP ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT DAY WHICH WILL BRING WINDS
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND ALLOW HIGHS TO APPROACH RECORDS INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS. WHILE
WINDS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL DROP HIGHS ABOUT 20 TO
30 DEGREES, AND BRING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
26-GRZYWACZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 98 64 97 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 57 96 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 72 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 59 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 96 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 57 94 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 98 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 55 96 60 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 98 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 60 98 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 96 62 97 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 95 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 51 95 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 58 97 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 96 64 97 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 46 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 48 88 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 54 92 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 55 95 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 86 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 56 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 94 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 57 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 95 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 58 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
05-ROGASH/35/99
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