849  
FXUS64 KEPZ 050949  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
249 AM MST FRI MAR 5 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE  
BORDERLAND THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL  
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS  
TURN OUT OF THE EAST. SPOTTY BREEZY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE OUR  
ONE DAY WITHOUT ANY BREEZES AND HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE 70S.  
DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE OUR  
WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH EL PASO POTENTIALLY SEEING THEIR  
FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE NOVEMBER. THE WINDIEST DAYS WILL BE  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY BE ON THE HORIZON  
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
   
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
 
 
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON  
THURSDAY WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IT IT'S PLACE, A  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST AND BEGIN TO  
MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. NEAR THE SURFACE, WE CONTINUE TO  
SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHICH HAS  
PUSHED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. THE DEEP WEST FLOW ALOFT  
IS STREAMING A BIT OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS  
ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES, AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST  
PERIOD. DESPITE THOSE CLOUDS, MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A SUNNY TO  
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM NW TO N TO NE  
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THOSE NE SURFACE WINDS WILL  
IMPORT COOLER AIR INTO THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA, MAKING FOR A  
COOLER DAY EAST AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE FURTHER EAST, THE COOLER, AND  
THE BIGGER THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY. TO THE WEST  
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY NEAR YESTERDAY'S READINGS, EVEN  
SLIGHTLY WARMER. ALL IN ALL, TODAY'S HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE NEAR  
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TODAY'S WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WE  
SAW YESTERDAY, BUT OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL  
POSSIBLE.  
 
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR  
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COOLER  
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE A BIT COOLER, BUT NO COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
 
 
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST DURING  
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE PUSHED  
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING EFFECTS ON  
THE BORDERLAND SATURDAY. MOST THE GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS  
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN  
AREAS BY DAYBREAK; HOWEVER, WESTERN LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ALONG THE  
NM/AZ BORDER WILL HOLD ONTO SOME BREEZES THROUGH THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT  
WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO COOL ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES AS  
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY GET PUSHED  
BACK TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK  
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE A  
VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
BUILDS BACK IN AND SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE  
SOUTHERLY. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR ONE DAY BREAK FROM ANY KIND OF  
BREEZINESS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, SO BE SURE TO SOAK IT IN WHILE YOU  
CAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST  
LOWLAND LOCATIONS.  
 
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL START TO TRANSITION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY AS WE LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND OUR FLOW BECOMES  
SOUTHWESTERLY AS BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US AND  
EASTERN PACIFIC. A TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE  
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH IN AT THIS TIME AND USHER IN AN ABUNDANCE OF  
HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE  
BORDERLAND. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUD COVER, MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF  
OUR WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS FLIP  
AROUND AND BECOME WESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE  
IN THE UPPER 70S FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS, WITH EL PASO POSSIBLY  
HAVING THEIR FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE NOVEMBER 21ST. WHILE THIS  
WILL BE 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, IT'S NOT THAT UNCOMMON TO SEE  
OUR FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR AROUND THIS TIME. IN FACT,  
WE'VE HIT 80 DEGREES IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH DURING  
ROUGHLY 16 OUT OF THE LAST 20 YEARS. A FEW LIGHT BREEZES WILL BE  
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A 500MB JET STREAK PASSES BY  
OVERHEAD.  
 
TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS STICK  
AROUND AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S  
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. THE  
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE. THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AND  
ATTEMPT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT MORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND PERHAPS  
EVEN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN HAVE  
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE GILA REGION TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT STARTS TO NUDGE IN  
FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA  
WITH PWS JUMPING ABOVE HALF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE  
9000 FEET, SO MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP WOULD FALL AS RAIN.  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE  
STALLING HALFWAY ACROSS OUR CWA BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE  
OF RAIN WILL SHIFT TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE COMING TO AN END AS THE TAP OF  
MOISTURE EXITS TO THE EAST. WE MAY FINALLY START TO SEE SKIES  
CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL COOL  
INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY, WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST REMAIN IN THE  
LOWER TO MID 70S. THE BIGGER IMPACT TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND  
PERHAPS EVEN INTO THURSDAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. DECENT  
LEESIDE TROUGHING, A PASSING COLD FRONT, AND A 500MB JET STREAK  
WILL ALL ALIGN TO CREATE SEVERAL WINDY DAYS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.  
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30MPH ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE  
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF  
ALREADY AGREE THAT WE'LL NEED WIND PRODUCTS OUT FOR PORTIONS OF  
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS JUMP TO 25-35MPH,  
WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS ON THE GFS.  
 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS BY, THOUGH MODELS HANDLE THE TIMING AND LOCATION  
A BIT DIFFERENT. EITHER WAY, EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BREEZY WINDS  
ONCE AGAIN, BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES  
WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES BACK INTO THE 60S AS ANOTHER FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY POSSIBLY PUSHES THROUGH. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE  
SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THEY BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LOW  
MOVING INTO THE BORDERLAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. THERE ARE ALSO  
INDICATIONS THAT A POTENT BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN AT THE SAME  
TIME. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION, MORE WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE  
EXPECTED, WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A  
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WOULD ALSO BE LIKELY, THOUGH IT'S TOO SOON  
TO DISCLOSE EXACT DETAILS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES SKC NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR,  
FEW-SCT250 SOUTH OF I-10. UNRESTRICTED VSBY. SURFACE WINDS NORTH TO  
NORTHEAST 5-12KTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
YESTERDAY'S WIND-MAKER, THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, IS  
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY - TO RELAX THOSE CONCERNS. HIGH  
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. AT THE  
SURFACE, A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH, AND HIGH PRESSURE  
SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOMEWHAT  
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY. THAT  
INBOUND AIR WILL ALSO HAVE SOME MEAGER GULF MOISTURE IN IT TO RAISE  
DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATE RH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S MINS, DESPITE  
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THUS RH MIN VALUES TODAY WILL BE HIGHER  
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND LOWER TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL  
SHOW A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT ALSO FROM EAST TO WEST, WITH EASTERN  
AREAS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (AND NEAR SEASONAL  
AVERAGES), AND WESTERN AREAS BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY  
(AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES). WITH WINDS DECREASING  
SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY, TRANSPORT WINDS WILL DROP  
RESULTING IN LOWER VENTILATION CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY  
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.  
 
THROUGH MONDAY EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMING CONDITIONS, WITH  
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DAILY HIGHS COULD WARM TO AS MUCH AS 15  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE AS A DEEP, BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE  
WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VERY DRY  
CONDITIONS, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG WINDS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 68 42 67 41 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 64 35 62 37 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 67 38 66 37 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 64 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 40 23 44 26 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 37 64 38 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 63 37 58 35 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 67 36 65 33 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 70 39 67 34 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 43 66 43 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 63 30 62 31 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 67 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 61 37 61 37 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 68 40 68 39 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 66 38 65 36 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 42 64 42 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 66 35 64 33 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 68 35 66 34 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 69 41 66 37 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 66 38 65 37 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 48 27 54 30 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 49 25 55 28 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 48 25 52 25 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 60 26 58 26 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 62 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 66 34 64 33 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 60 30 59 28 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 64 32 60 31 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 68 35 67 31 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 67 39 63 31 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 65 36 60 36 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 70 40 68 33 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 68 38 65 32 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 40 68 36 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 65 42 65 39 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
14-BIRD/32-PEGRAM  
 
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