146
FXUS64 KEPZ 151030
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
430 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 429 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- QUIET WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, BUT
STILL BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID MAY.
- WINDY WEST WINDS AGAIN SUNDAY AND BREEZY MONDAY, CREATING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
VERY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL BE CONSISTENTLY SUNNY, WARM, AND BREEZY EACH DAY. LONGWAVE
TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE PRIMARY JET FLOW
TO OUR NORTH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL FEATURE WARM, TYPICAL
MID-MAY TEMPERATURES WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS 15 TO
25 MPH.
BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP SOUTH OVER OUR AREA AND
INCREASE WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH STILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SUBTLE COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS CONDITIONS ARE
EXTREMELY DRY.
NEGATIVELY TILED RIDGE OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
FOR LIGHTER WINDS LOCALLY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT
OUT OF THE PLAINS AROUND THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WHILE THIS
WON'T AFFECT TEMPERATURES MUCH, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A DRYLINE INTRUSION BACK INTO THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD RETURN TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE MAY 22-25 TIMEFRAME IF THIS OCCURS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 429 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT100 SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
WEST AOB 7 KNOTS THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO WEST 12-17G27 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 429 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED THROUGH THE MID
PORTION ON NEXT WEEK AS EACH AFTERNOON BECOMES BREEZY TO WINDY.
SUNDAY, AND TO A BIT LESSER EXTENT MONDAY, WILL BE THE WINDIEST
DAYS WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MET OR EXCEEDED. EXPECT WINDS
SUNDAY AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH, AND JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER
MONDAY. AFTER TODAY MIN RHS DROP INTO THE SINGLE TO LOWER TEEN
DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ERCS WILL REACH OR PASS THE
90TH PERCENTILE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 8-13% TODAY DECREASING TO 5-10% SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAINS 8-17%. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 56 91 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 91 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 70 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 91 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 82 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 93 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 92 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 58 92 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 64 96 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 61 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 63 94 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 92 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 91 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 52 93 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 93 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 83 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 81 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 77 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 48 84 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 58 89 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 90 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 83 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 89 44 86 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 84 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 85 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 89 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 89 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 89 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 82 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page