470
FXUS64 KEPZ 031229
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
629 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 604 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.
- GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, FLOODING, AND EVEN SOME HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- HOT NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND LIKELY THE
FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR FOR EL PASO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
OUR UNSEASONABLY MOIST PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, AND HAS ACTUALLY
CONTINUED TO BOLSTER THE MOISTURE WITH PLENTY OF MONDAY CONVECTION
OVER AREAS TO OUR EAST, ENHANCING A FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION, WITH STRONG AND JUICED OUTFLOWS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED DRAMATICALLY OVER OUR CENTRAL AREAS BEHIND
THIS EVENINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WE SAW DEWPOINTS JUMP ALMOST 30F
IN 20 MIN. WE WILL KEEP THE AREA FLUSH WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALL THE
WAY TO THE AZ STATE LINE FOR TOMORROW. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR A CONTINUED MOISTENING, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH A
DEEP CLOCKWISE FLOW OPENING THE GULF, FLOWING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS
TX INTO NM; WHILE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HEATING IS CREATING LOW
PRESSURE TO ENHANCE A PULL OF THAT MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. PWATS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY
JUNE. ALOFT, THE PATTERN IS ONE OF A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH TO OUR
WEST, THAT WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT UNSTABLE,
AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME MINOR CONVECTION INDUCING SHORTWAVES FOR
THE AREA.
TOMORROW, LOOKS TO BE STORMY AREA WIDE, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
NEGATIVE LIS AND HIGHER CAPES. WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO NEAR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT, WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS WITH SLOW MOTION, HEAVY
RAIN, AND POTENTIAL LOCAL FLOODING. SPC HAS THE EL PASO AREA, AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL TOMORROW.
THE MOISTURE STAYS HEALTHY AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY, FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WITH A BIT LESS FUEL FOR
STRONG STORMS, AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE OF FOCUS BACK TO THE EAST,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
FOR FRIDAY, THE GFS AND EC MODELS BOTH SCOOT THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
TO OUR EAST, AND WITH THAT BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST, WITH DRY AIR WEST. WE
EXPECT FEW TO NO STORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS, WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS CENTRAL AND EAST. WE DO NOT SEE A CLEAN SWEEP OF
MOISTURE, WITH A STRONG WEST PUSH FOR SATURDAY, SO WE LOOK TO KEEP
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA LOOKING DRY.
SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE GENERALLY DRY DAYS, WITH A
DEEP AND MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THAT SHOULD MEAN DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SE SURFACE FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH A SLIVER OF MOISTURE REINTRODUCED. THIS COULD MEAN
SOME WEAK AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORM POTENTIAL TO WATCH OUT FOR.
ALL OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOT, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND
HIGHS FOR EL PASO SURPASSING 100 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIMES THIS
YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
WE WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN IF A THUNDERSTORM DOES
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT, THE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY
WILL. THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 4
AND 10 PM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS BUT GENERALLY WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
WE COULD SEE SOME LOW END WIND GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE LIKELY WHAT WILL HAPPEN IS THAT OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE US STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AS MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RH'S TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
20% ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL STAY BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY COULD
CREATE SOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STARTING FRIDAY DRIER
AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SO THAT BY SUNDAY THE WHOLE
REGION WILL HAVE DRIED OUT WITH MIN RH'S IN THE LOWER TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 90 69 89 / 60 10 30 10
SIERRA BLANCA 59 83 60 81 / 60 30 40 30
LAS CRUCES 59 87 60 88 / 70 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 61 86 64 87 / 70 20 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 45 65 47 67 / 60 60 10 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 87 63 90 / 40 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 55 83 55 86 / 50 50 10 20
DEMING 59 92 60 95 / 60 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 60 90 61 93 / 40 10 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 88 67 87 / 60 10 30 10
DELL CITY 59 87 61 87 / 60 30 30 30
FORT HANCOCK 64 91 66 89 / 50 30 50 30
LOMA LINDA 59 82 61 80 / 60 20 30 20
FABENS 63 91 65 89 / 60 10 40 20
SANTA TERESA 61 87 63 87 / 60 10 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 88 71 88 / 70 20 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 60 87 62 88 / 70 20 10 10
HATCH 61 90 63 92 / 60 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 64 91 66 92 / 60 10 30 0
OROGRANDE 60 85 62 85 / 60 20 10 20
MAYHILL 51 76 52 79 / 60 70 10 50
MESCALERO 50 75 52 77 / 60 60 10 50
TIMBERON 47 72 49 73 / 70 60 20 50
WINSTON 51 80 52 84 / 40 50 10 10
HILLSBORO 60 85 61 88 / 60 40 10 10
SPACEPORT 57 86 59 88 / 70 20 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 51 84 52 88 / 50 60 20 20
HURLEY 55 85 55 88 / 60 50 10 20
CLIFF 56 90 56 93 / 50 50 10 10
MULE CREEK 54 87 54 90 / 40 50 20 10
FAYWOOD 57 84 57 86 / 60 40 10 20
ANIMAS 59 91 62 93 / 30 10 30 0
HACHITA 59 90 61 91 / 40 20 30 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 90 61 90 / 20 20 20 10
CLOVERDALE 57 86 58 86 / 10 10 20 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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