003
FXUS64 KEPZ 070401
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1001 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- DRIER AND HOTTER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MANY LOWLAND AREAS
SEEING THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON.
- MOISTURE WILL OCCASIONALLY SEEP IN FROM THE EAST, GIVING THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
UPPER LOW DRIVING OUR WEATHER HAS NOW MOVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, TO BE REPLACED SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA HAS DIMINISHED AS DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE
30S EAST AND 20S WEST. LIMITED CONVECTION WAS ABLE TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT DID NOT SURVIVE MOVING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE LOWLANDS. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY, KEEPING MOST/ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT OF OUR AREA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BATTLE TAKES PLACE BETWEEN THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US AGAINST THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE GOA AND TEXAS. THE HIGH BASICALLY
WINS OUT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH RIDES UP OVER IT BY WEDNESDAY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
DOES INCREASE BY TUESDAY, AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST (DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S EAST), A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP OVER THE SACS AND EASTERN HUDSPETH
TUESDAY. THE ACTION OF THE TROUGH RIDING UP OVER THE HIGH TURNS OUT
WINDS WEST WEDNESDAY AND SCOURS OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE. THIS ALSO
ALLOWS OUR HEAT TO RETURN AND MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE THEIR
FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OF THE SEASON DURING THIS STRETCH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO FOR CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWLANDS REMAINING
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HAVING SAID THAT, THE HIGH WILL
NOT COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
DRIFT IN AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHORT WAVES WITH THE PACIFIC
LOW MAY IMPINGE INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ADDING TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS (SURPRISINGLY), BUT SATURDAY COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER OTHER AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN100 DISSIPATING NEXT FEW
HOURS AS HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE FL200 SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.
STRONGER OUTFLOWS EXPECTED EARLIER DID NOT REALLY MATERIALIZE.
SURFACE WINDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT WEST 7-10 KNOTS. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL END
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE ALSO DROPPING AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE-DIGITS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT IT WILL BE DRY ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH WITH EXCELLENT VENTING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND GOOD VENTING EAST OF THE RIVER.
DRY AIR COMPLETELY TAKES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH MIN
RH VALUES NEAR 10%. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 100. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WHILE VENTING RANGES VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THOUGH WITH VERY SLOW
MOISTURE GAINS NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 99 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 95 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 65 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 67 96 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 75 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 96 65 96 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 65 99 63 101 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 62 94 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 98 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 98 62 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 101 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 63 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 65 100 66 103 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 66 97 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 97 64 97 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 66 100 65 101 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 70 98 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 61 96 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 52 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 49 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 56 86 54 87 / 10 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 65 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 61 96 60 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 87 49 90 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 60 91 59 93 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 48 95 51 96 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 43 90 46 91 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 62 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 61 95 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 95 62 97 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 62 94 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page