988
FXUS64 KEPZ 171753
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1153 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS, PEAKING
TODAY, BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL AND THE GILA REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY IN THE NEW MEXICO LOWLAND DESERTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
- ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THURSDAY, WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
FRIDAY.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE SLIPPING UP OUT OF MEXICO WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. ALOFT WE HAVE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE OFF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, WE WILL HAVE A DECENT LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WILL HELP GIVE US BREEZY
TO WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. IF THE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE ABLE TO ALIGN WITH THE AMBIENT SURFACE WINDS WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCATIONS THAT GET SOME STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE BLOWING DUST ALONG I-10
EAST OF LAS CRUCES. AND IF THE WIND AND THUNDERSTORMS WEREN'T
ENOUGH OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
WHICH WOULD PUT MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
AND LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE BELOW EL PASO WILL BE
AROUND 105.
FOR THURSDAY WE WILL SEE LESS GRADIENT WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE EVENLY SPREAD ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA, SO EVERYONE WILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, SO THAT WILL LIMIT
OUR RAIN CHANCES TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
FOR THE WEEKEND, DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE,
WHILE ALOFT, AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL VIRTUALLY ELIMINATE OUR RAIN CHANCES
AND IT WILL KEEP LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90'S TO A FEW
DEGREES OVER 100. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL STILL BE DRY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CREEP HIGHER. SOME LOWLAND
LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN BE FLIRTING WITH THE 105 READINGS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY SO BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WE WILL SEE WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. IN ADDITION WE WILL HAVE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GIVE US SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE MAIN THREAT IS
THAT THE STORM MOTION (TO THE SOUTHEAST) WILL COMBINE WITH THE
GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS TO GIVE US SOME VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE, AGAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. VISIBILITIES AT KDMN COULD DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLRU AND KELP MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WE
WILL HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS THIS MORNING, BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
CEILINGS OF BKN120-250 FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS AND
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING, BUT THE WINDY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
WE WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY BECAUSE OF
MIN RH'S RUNNING IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS TO NEAR 20% IN
AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL SEE WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH STRONGER GUSTS LATER TODAY. MIN RH'S WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN
THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND IN THE 20'S IN
AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR THE WEEKEND, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION, SO THAT BY SUNDAY, MIN RH'S IN THE LOWLANDS WILL RANGE
FROM 5 TO 7% AND IN AREA MOUNTAINS IT WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15%.
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CREATE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WHICH CAN TRAVEL A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE PARENT
THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY. WE WILL BE DRY FOR THIS
WEEKEND, BUT MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TRY TO MAKE A RETURN FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 101 75 101 / 10 0 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 97 66 96 / 10 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 71 98 68 99 / 10 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 99 68 98 / 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 55 78 52 75 / 0 30 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 75 99 70 99 / 0 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 63 89 61 91 / 10 20 10 0
DEMING 70 99 68 101 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 95 65 96 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 99 74 99 / 10 0 20 0
DELL CITY 71 101 67 98 / 0 0 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 76 102 73 102 / 10 0 20 0
LOMA LINDA 70 94 67 93 / 0 10 20 10
FABENS 75 102 72 102 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 73 97 70 98 / 10 0 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 100 74 99 / 0 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 99 66 99 / 0 10 10 0
HATCH 70 102 67 102 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 74 98 73 100 / 10 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 68 98 67 97 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 63 89 56 85 / 0 40 10 70
MESCALERO 58 88 55 86 / 0 30 10 50
TIMBERON 56 85 53 83 / 0 20 10 40
WINSTON 63 90 58 90 / 0 30 10 10
HILLSBORO 69 95 66 96 / 10 20 10 0
SPACEPORT 67 99 64 99 / 0 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 90 55 92 / 10 40 10 10
HURLEY 65 92 63 94 / 10 10 0 0
CLIFF 65 95 61 98 / 20 20 10 0
MULE CREEK 62 91 59 92 / 20 20 10 0
FAYWOOD 67 92 64 94 / 10 20 0 0
ANIMAS 64 94 64 96 / 20 0 10 0
HACHITA 65 95 64 96 / 20 0 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 93 65 94 / 10 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 60 87 61 89 / 10 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page