956
FXUS64 KEPZ 020431
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1031 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH BREEZY EAST
WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY.
- BREEZY WEST FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
EXITING UPPER LOW NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA HAS TAKEN MOST OF OUR
MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PERSISTS, MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA, AND WITH THE HELP OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NW
NEW MEXICO, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. MOST, OR ALL, SHOWERS LIKELY REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FT, SO SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTS OUT TO
OUR EAST SATURDAY EVENING, ENDING ALL PRECIP.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY FOR BRIEF CLEARING OF THE
SKIES. HIGHER CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUB-
TROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS THE
NOSE OF THIS JET MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO, BUT FOR NOW TOO LOW TO
REGISTER IN THE GRIDS. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE GILA, THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALL AREAS TUESDAY AS MOISTENING DOWN FROM THE TOP
GRADUALLY TAKES EFFECT. THE PACIFIC LOW LIFTS OUT AS AN OPEN
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD COLD POOL ALOFT WITH IT
SO A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS FALL TO
AROUND 8000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO BOTH SETS OF MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A DUSTING AT THESE ELEVATIONS.
GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A
SECONDARY LOW OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS. GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW
BUT MUCH FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, MAYBE COMING INTO PLAY BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT-BKN060
WIDELY SEP LAYERS TO 200. SCATTERED BKN040 5SM -SHRA, MAINLY
ACROSS GRANT, SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ABOVE 8500 FT OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS EAST/NORTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS DIMINISHING
AFTER 06Z TO EAST AOB 7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND TOMORROW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
BE IN THE MIN 30S OR HIGHER, AIDED BY MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE ADDED MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL ALSO FOSTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY WE WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER, WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWER MIN
RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S. WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH LESSER COVERAGE THAN TODAY. VENTING FOR
TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY BE FAIR TO GOOD WITH SOME
POCKETS OF POOR.
WE ENTER A RAPID WARMING ON SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. DRYING BEGINS ON MONDAY WHILE WINDS INCREASE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BUT MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FOR WEDNESDAY
BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 70 53 80 / 20 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 45 65 46 75 / 20 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 46 67 46 75 / 50 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 66 45 73 / 40 50 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 43 33 52 / 40 60 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 66 49 74 / 70 50 20 10
SILVER CITY 43 63 44 70 / 50 40 20 0
DEMING 48 71 48 78 / 50 20 10 0
LORDSBURG 49 71 50 78 / 20 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 69 54 78 / 20 10 10 0
DELL CITY 46 67 45 76 / 30 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 74 51 83 / 10 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 45 61 47 72 / 20 10 10 0
FABENS 51 71 51 81 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 48 68 49 78 / 20 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 67 51 76 / 40 20 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 66 43 75 / 50 30 10 0
HATCH 48 70 45 79 / 70 30 10 0
COLUMBUS 51 72 50 80 / 40 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 65 45 73 / 30 30 10 0
MAYHILL 35 54 36 66 / 40 50 20 0
MESCALERO 34 54 35 63 / 40 60 20 0
TIMBERON 33 52 36 60 / 40 40 20 0
WINSTON 38 58 36 68 / 70 70 30 10
HILLSBORO 46 64 46 73 / 80 50 20 10
SPACEPORT 45 66 43 74 / 60 40 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 64 36 70 / 60 60 30 10
HURLEY 43 66 43 73 / 40 30 10 0
CLIFF 43 71 39 78 / 30 40 20 0
MULE CREEK 38 69 36 75 / 20 40 10 0
FAYWOOD 44 64 45 71 / 60 40 10 0
ANIMAS 49 72 50 79 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 47 70 48 78 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 71 48 79 / 20 20 10 0
CLOVERDALE 47 69 50 75 / 10 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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