305
FXUS64 KEPZ 162322
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
422 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 421 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIXED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. MINIMAL WEATHER
HAZARDS.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
SIXTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO KEEP US IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST WILL BUILD A LITTLE SOUTH (AND CLOSER) INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, SOME COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST TODAY AND THAT WILL LOWER SATURDAY'S HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
(BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE). AND OUR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND EVEN A
LITTLE WARMER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE
MORE OF A ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT WILL
ALLOW A LITTLE MOISTURE TO CREEP IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTH.
RIGHT NOW ALL THE MODELS KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES WELL TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY DIP A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURGE OF COOL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST, BUT BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO JUMP BACK 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NO
REAL SIGN OF ANY GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 421 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC. WINDS
LIGHT AT 4-8 KNOTS AND VRB THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT 8-12 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
OUR QUIET FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MONDAY. MIN RH'S WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND
RANGE FROM 20 TO 30% IN AREA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. OUR WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL PUSHES OF COOLER AIR FROM THE
EAST, WHICH WILL FLIP OUR WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST AND THEN THEY
WILL GO BACK TO THE WEST, BUT NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. VENT RATES
WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR ON SATURDAY AND FROM FAIR TO GOOD ON
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 34 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 29 56 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 28 57 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 28 57 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 36 20 42 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 58 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 58 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 29 62 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 61 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 60 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 23 55 19 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 30 62 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 31 54 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 30 62 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 60 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 59 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 25 59 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 27 62 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 31 62 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 28 56 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 24 49 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 23 49 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 22 47 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 23 54 19 60 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 32 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 25 58 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 56 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 28 59 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 25 63 23 65 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 59 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 59 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 30 62 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 62 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 63 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 37 59 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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