218
FXUS64 KEPZ 031112
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
512 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- SLIGHT STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FOR OTERO/HUDSPETH
COUNTIES.
- MOSTLY DRY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH A SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY; SCATTERED STORMS IN
THE SACRAMENTO'S. LOWLAND HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOUNTAIN AREAS ALL WEEK. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ENTERS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS THOSE TWO DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS
WESTWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC, CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE PLUME
THAT'S BEEN SITTING E OF THE US-54 CORRIDOR. SLIGHT STORM CHANCES
REMAIN OUT EAST FOR FRI AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. WEAK OUTFLOWS PROGRESS WESTWARD
DURING THE EVENING TOWARDS THE RGV LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS.
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY, THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES OVER NM, ALLOWING
MOIST, EASTERLY FLOW TO REACH FURTHER INTO THE CWA. PWS CLIMB
TOWARDS 1" ALONG THE RGV DURING THE DAY WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE RIVER (0Z HRRR) IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
THE SACS. NBM POPS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY FOR SAT PM TO REFLECT
THE MOST RECENT CAMS. GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. MOST
OF THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE TIME FIREWORKS SHOWS BEGIN
AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING. MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE RGV AS WINDS
STAY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS NEAR 100F.
A MORE ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP AROUND THIS NEW UPPER
HIGH FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MOIST, SE FLOW REACHES FURTHER WEST
THROUGH S NM WITH STORM CHANCES FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS BEGINNING
MON. SCATTERED MTN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
FROM MON-WED AS PWS CLIMB TO 1-1.2" (75-90TH %-ILE). WITH THE UPPER
HIGH NEARBY, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND INCREASE THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON MON/TUE. THE PRESENCE OF TROUGHS/VORTS
AROUND THE HIGH WOULD PROVIDE FURTHER LIFT FOR CONVECTION NEXT WEEK,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHERE/WHEN THEY MIGHT HAVE AN IMPACT.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO DECREASE A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN100 CU BUILDUPS MAINLY EAST OF THE RG VALLEY,
WITH INCREASING SCT-BKN250 ALL AREAS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BKN080CB THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS THIS MORNING,
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
FIRE CONCERNS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AS YOU GO WEST, FIRE CONDITIONS WORSEN SLIGHTLY
AS MIN RHS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST OF THE RG VALLEY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
PERSISTS. RHS INCREASE ALL AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES, LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. NON-THUNDERSTORM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ERCS REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BUT ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE NEW WEEK UNFOLDS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS WEST OF RG VALLEY...6-12% THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
15-20% MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWLANDS RG VALLEY EAST...12-20%
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN 15-25% MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GILA/BLACK RANGE
MTNS...8-15% THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN 25-35% MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS...15-25% THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN 25-40%
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 101 77 100 / 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 66 95 68 95 / 20 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 68 99 69 98 / 0 10 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 70 99 70 97 / 10 30 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 54 80 54 78 / 20 40 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 99 72 98 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 65 93 67 92 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 67 100 69 99 / 0 10 0 10
LORDSBURG 67 97 70 98 / 0 10 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 99 76 99 / 10 10 10 10
DELL CITY 69 99 70 98 / 20 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 73 102 74 101 / 20 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 69 93 69 92 / 10 20 10 10
FABENS 73 102 74 101 / 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 71 99 72 98 / 0 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 100 77 98 / 0 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 66 99 67 98 / 0 10 0 10
HATCH 67 102 69 101 / 0 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 72 100 75 100 / 0 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 66 98 67 97 / 10 20 10 20
MAYHILL 58 90 58 87 / 20 40 10 40
MESCALERO 57 90 57 88 / 20 40 10 50
TIMBERON 55 87 55 85 / 10 30 10 30
WINSTON 62 92 62 90 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 68 97 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 63 99 64 98 / 0 10 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 52 95 57 94 / 0 0 0 20
HURLEY 64 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 53 99 61 98 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 49 94 56 94 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 66 95 68 94 / 0 10 0 10
ANIMAS 68 98 70 98 / 0 10 0 10
HACHITA 67 98 69 98 / 0 10 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 98 70 99 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 66 92 67 93 / 0 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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