328
FXUS64 KEPZ 091130
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
- SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LOWLANDS.
- LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REMAINING HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 98-102; EXCEPT HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM 100 TO
104.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
FLATTENED HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVER SOCAL THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH RAPIDLY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS BY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR GULF MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ADD TO THE FLOODING
THREAT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WITH A BIG INFLUX
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EACH DAY WITH
SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING TO
THE UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. BETTER MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK STARTING
SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE
90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT130-250. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST FOR ELP AND LRU THIS AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT DMN AND TCS. ISO SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AND
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
WE REMAIN IN A HOT AND SOMEWHAT DRY PATTERN AS MINIMUM RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH. ENOUGH MOISTURE BE AROUND FOR SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED
DRY LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERNS. VENT RATES WILL RANGE GOOD TO
VERY GOOD. THIS PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT BY
SUNDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WHILE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DECREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 103 77 102 / 20 10 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 97 68 97 / 10 20 20 0
LAS CRUCES 70 102 70 100 / 20 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 101 73 99 / 20 30 0 40
CLOUDCROFT 55 77 54 76 / 20 50 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 102 73 100 / 20 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 65 94 65 93 / 20 40 10 30
DEMING 69 103 69 102 / 30 30 30 0
LORDSBURG 69 100 69 99 / 30 30 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 102 76 101 / 20 10 20 0
DELL CITY 71 101 71 100 / 0 10 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 103 75 103 / 10 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 70 95 70 94 / 20 10 20 10
FABENS 75 103 75 103 / 10 10 20 0
SANTA TERESA 73 101 73 100 / 20 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 102 78 101 / 20 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 73 102 73 100 / 20 10 20 0
HATCH 72 105 72 104 / 20 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 75 104 74 102 / 20 30 40 0
OROGRANDE 72 100 72 99 / 20 10 10 10
MAYHILL 60 89 59 86 / 20 50 0 30
MESCALERO 59 90 58 88 / 20 30 10 60
TIMBERON 57 86 57 85 / 30 40 10 30
WINSTON 61 93 63 92 / 20 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 69 99 70 98 / 20 10 10 0
SPACEPORT 69 102 70 100 / 20 10 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 59 95 59 95 / 20 40 10 40
HURLEY 65 97 65 97 / 30 40 10 10
CLIFF 65 100 66 100 / 20 40 10 30
MULE CREEK 63 96 64 96 / 20 40 10 20
FAYWOOD 66 97 66 96 / 20 30 10 10
ANIMAS 69 99 68 98 / 40 40 50 10
HACHITA 68 99 67 98 / 30 40 40 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 97 67 97 / 40 50 60 10
CLOVERDALE 64 91 63 91 / 60 50 60 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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