008
FXUS64 KEPZ 251749
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1149 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
- RECORD MARCH WARMTH THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID NINETIES.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY DUE TO BREEZY WINDS.
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES,
GUSTY EAST WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
UPPER HIGH ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT, MAKING A VERY SLOW
EASTWARD CRAWL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING TO CONTINUED RECORD
MARCH WARMTH AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
20 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH, AND WILL
LIKELY BREAK DAILY RECORDS FOR MARCH 25/26. BESIDES THE HEAT, IT
LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES.
WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO OUR NORTH ON
THURSDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY. THIS SHORTWAVE CAN
BE CURRENTLY BE SEEN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND HAS VIRTUALLY NO
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WEAK LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PROMOTE WEST FLOW 15 TO 20 MPH FOR OUR
AREA. THIS ISN'T A BIG CONCERN FOR MOST, BUT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
FIRE WEATHER GIVEN THE ABNORMAL WARMTH AND DRYNESS.
STRONG 1040MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS YET
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT, REACHING SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY EAST WINDS,
COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST ON FRIDAY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 10 TO 20 DEGREE COOLING (LOWLAND HIGHS UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S), YET THIS STILL KEEPS US SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
RECENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS HAVE KICKED UP QUITE A BIT OF DUST
OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX, SO EL PASO MAY BE HAZY THAT
AFTERNOON.
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST NEXT WEEKEND, LEAVING US IN A SOUTH FLOW
REGIME AND ALLOWING A FETCH OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE FINAL COUPLE DAYS OF MARCH GOING INTO EARLY APRIL. IT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL MAY USHER IN THE RETURN OF A
MORE TYPICAL SPRING WINDY PATTERN WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW250 BECOMING
SKC. LIGHT BREEZES TODAY BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 554 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH
EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES, DROPPING BELOW 5 PERCENT IN THE LOWLANDS.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER DARK, AND THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS (GUSTS 20-25
MPH) WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLACK RANGE, DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ANY OVERNIGHT BREEZINESS WILL BE DETRIMENTAL TO RH
RECOVERY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING
AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY, WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING, MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED, AS ERC VALUES
HAVE PUSHED ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS IN PARTS OF SW NEW
MEXICO.
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY, BRINGING STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND RISING HUMIDITY. PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
MAY AGAIN APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COOLER AIR LAGS BEHIND. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER
THE PICTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE
AN ISSUE AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 96 57 75 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 92 52 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 93 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 92 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 70 38 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 93 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 83 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 51 94 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 49 87 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 95 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 97 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 99 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 88 52 66 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 97 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 93 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 95 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 51 93 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 97 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 94 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 54 93 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 53 85 40 57 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 51 81 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 52 79 42 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 85 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 91 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 93 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 83 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 87 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 90 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 85 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 87 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 52 90 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 89 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 91 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 85 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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