297
FXUS64 KEPZ 081150
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
550 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK, THEN WARMING FOR
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN AREA MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, WHICH
MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE LC-EP
CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE MORNING. CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS
ACTIVITY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO CHANCES ARE SLIM (10-20%). THE
LINGERING TROUGH RESULTS IN BETTER E FLOW NEAR THE SFC THU WITH
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER AREA MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE LOWLANDS. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRI FROM THE SOUTH, PUSHING THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AS IT GETS SUCKED INTO NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
ON FRI, EVEN IN THE MTNS.
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND TROUGHING TAKES OVER THE WEST COAST. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
PULLED N AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW/TS RACHEL STARTING ON SAT WITH
MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED FOR THE GILA
ON SAT, FOCUSING OUT WEST THROUGH SUN. THE COMBINED UPPER LOW AND
REMNANTS OF RACHEL WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
AND AZ, BRINGING THEM THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING, INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUN FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH A LOW THREAT OF FLOODING
FOR THE GILA.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD GETS WEIRD. TS SIMON, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, WILL TRACK N THROUGH MX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ITS MOISTURE GETTING SCOOPED UP BY THE UPPER LOW/RACHEL. IT'S
UNCERTAIN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SIMON AS IT MOVES INLAND, BUT
THE NHC TRACK HAS THE STORM HEADING TOWARDS SONORA/CHIHUAHUA.
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
EVENT, BUT THE LATEST NBM HAS EVERYONE GETTING SOME RAIN IN THE
MEDIAN SCENARIO, COMPARED TO BASICALLY NOTHING IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHAT OUR FLOODING RISK WILL BE MON-
TUE, BUT WE'LL HAVE OUR EARS OPEN TO HEAR WHAT SIMON SAYS
(HOPEFULLY NOT A REPEAT OF POLO).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IS
RESULTING IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FORT HANCOCK THIS MORNING,
BUT THESE WILL REMAIN FAR FROM ELP. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS TRY TO
SPARK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR LRU THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS AROUND 10 PERCENT. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
ALLOW THE LOWLANDS TO DRY OUT, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 25%,
AND 35 TO 45% IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHERE OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY
WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL LEAD
TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN SW NM SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 84 64 87 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 80 57 82 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 81 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 81 58 83 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 58 43 60 / 10 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 80 57 80 / 10 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 54 75 54 74 / 10 0 0 20
DEMING 59 83 60 84 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 61 83 63 82 / 10 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 84 65 86 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 83 59 86 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 64 88 65 91 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 77 59 79 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 63 86 64 89 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 83 63 85 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 83 62 85 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 82 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 59 84 60 85 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 85 63 86 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 81 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 70 47 71 / 10 0 0 10
MESCALERO 47 70 48 71 / 10 0 0 10
TIMBERON 46 67 47 68 / 10 0 0 10
WINSTON 49 73 49 71 / 10 0 0 30
HILLSBORO 58 80 58 79 / 10 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 57 81 57 81 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 74 49 72 / 10 0 0 20
HURLEY 55 78 55 78 / 10 0 0 10
CLIFF 56 83 57 82 / 10 0 10 20
MULE CREEK 55 80 57 77 / 10 0 10 20
FAYWOOD 57 77 57 77 / 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 59 84 61 84 / 10 0 0 10
HACHITA 59 83 60 83 / 10 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 84 60 84 / 10 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 58 80 59 79 / 10 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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