050
FXUS64 KEPZ 031139
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
439 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 419 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
- RECORD WARMTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY, 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO
CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
ABNORMAL WARMTH ROLLS ON INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN THREATEN DAILY RECORDS, WITH HIGHS IN LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-TO-MID 80S. JET FLOW ALOFT DIPS SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING THE LEE SURFACE LOW WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING
WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE MOST COMMON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
BLOWING DUST GIVEN THE LOWER-END BREEZINESS, BUT COULD SEE SOME
LOCALIZED DUST NEAR THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
WE'LL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN AFTERNOON WINDS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
WEAKER, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOME "COOLER" AIR OUT OF THE NORTH WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES, STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TYPICAL OF SPRING IN THE BORDERLAND
CONTINUES ON THURSDAY. PACIFIC JET STREAK ALOFT WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL ONCE AGAIN INDUCE A
DEEPER LEE SURFACE LOW AND THUS STRONGER WINDS LOCALLY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT BREEZY NONETHELESS.
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND KNOCKS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
(LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S).
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION THIS PACKAGE SURROUNDS THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKEND'S PACIFIC LOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
EVIDENCE OF SUBSEQUENT JET STREAKS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
ALLOWING IT TO BREAK OFF OF THE PRIMARY POLAR JET AND RETROGRADE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (MARCH
8-11 TIMEFRAME). MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THUS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS WOULD ALSO BE A PATTERN WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW POPS (30-40%) FOR MOST OF
THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AOB 8KTS THIS MORNING, INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE W-SW.
GUSTS AROUND 25KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING
IN THE EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TODAY
TO PRODUCE BLDU, BUT VIS REDUCTIONS TO 3SM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHER THAN FEW-SCT250 DURING THE DAY, MAINLY SKC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW-MEDIUM THIS WEEK. TODAY WILL SEE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASS BY TO THE NORTH, GENERATING BREEZY W-SW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. 20-FT WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE FORECAST WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, RESULTING IN DEEP MIXING AND UNSTABLE AIR.
LOW RHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS ERCS CONTINUE
THEIR CLIMB TOWARDS THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES. RFTIS OF 2-4
ARE FORECAST TODAY, WHICH IS TOO LOW FOR RFW ISSUANCE GIVEN THE
STATE OF FUELS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH BRINGS SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR THU.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THU WITH THE
UPWARD TREND IN ERCS. 20-FT WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE IN THE 15-20
MPH RANGE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RFTIS IN THE NEAR-CRITICAL
CATEGORY. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THU AS WE MONITOR ERC TRENDS. RAIN CHANCES HOLD NEAR ZERO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STAY WARM THROUGH THU, THEN
FALLING CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 8-20% THROUGH FRI. VENTILATION WILL BE
EXCELLENT TODAY AND THU, OTHERWISE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 79 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 45 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 55 38 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 43 80 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 77 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 80 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 43 80 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 74 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 50 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 79 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 78 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 81 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 48 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 77 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 38 69 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 66 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 64 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 33 69 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 76 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 39 77 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 69 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 73 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 38 76 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 38 71 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 73 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 79 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 79 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 79 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 72 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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