253
FXUS64 KEPZ 160508
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1108 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1105 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS WITH IMPROVED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND MAY LINGER IN HUDSPETH COUNTY ON
SATURDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF REGION
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
LOTS OF MOISTURE MOVED INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND THAT
MOISTURE TREND WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EACH DAY
WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, AS
MOISTURE ROTATES UP FROM NORTHER MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BE APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. AS I MENTIONED THE CIRCULATIONS AROUND THOSE TWO
FEATURES, WILL CONTINUE THE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. ALL WE NEED IS SOME TRIGGER TO FIRE OFF THE STORMS. SADLY
NO STRONGER TRIGGER IS EVIDENT SO WE WILL HAVE TO DO WITH THE
INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT
WILL ALSO ROTATE UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE WE DON'T HAVE A STRONG
TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS, I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW'S), ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT
OF THE MAIN ACCESS OF MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST SLOWLY
PUSHES IN OUR DIRECTION. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AS WE WILL BE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF ONE TROUGH, BUT BY MONDAY, WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST SO MORE RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE, AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE, OUR HOT TEMPERATURE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS ARE
LONG GONE AND WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE OUT WEST AND A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THOSE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THEN WITH THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK, WE MAY EVEN SEE
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WHICH
IS SOMETHING I HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT IN QUITE A LONG TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAD SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT, BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIED
OFF. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION, WHICH MAY FIRE OFF SOME CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 3
HOURS, BUT RIGHT NOW MY CONFIDENCE OF ANY STORMS FORMING AND
IMPACTING AN AIRPORT IS LOW. GENERALLY WE WILL HAVE QUIETER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MID
CEILINGS OF BKN120. MUCH LIKE TUESDAY, WE WILL MORE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL NO CLEAR TREND FOR ONE TAF
SITE OR ANOTHER SEEING A THUNDERSTORM, SO WE WILL UPDATE TAFS AS
NEEDED. I DO EXPECT THE MID CEILINGS TO STICK THROUGH THE MORNING
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND WE WILL SEE LOWER
CEILINGS IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FOR WINDS WE WILL
SEE SOME LOW END GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DROP
OFF AROUND SUNSET, BUT OF COURSE THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM AREA THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
NO FIRE THREATS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RH'S STAYING ABOVE 25%
WITH MOST AREAS ABOVE 35%. THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INITIALLY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES WEST
OF THE RGV BUT SHIFTING EAST AS WE GET INTO THU AND FRI. WINDS
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 92 70 92 / 80 20 40 20
SIERRA BLANCA 64 90 64 90 / 50 30 10 0
LAS CRUCES 65 89 64 89 / 70 20 60 20
ALAMOGORDO 66 89 64 90 / 70 60 50 20
CLOUDCROFT 49 66 49 67 / 70 80 50 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 84 64 85 / 70 60 80 30
SILVER CITY 60 79 59 80 / 60 60 90 20
DEMING 64 89 62 89 / 70 30 80 10
LORDSBURG 66 84 63 85 / 40 60 80 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 91 69 91 / 80 20 50 20
DELL CITY 67 91 66 93 / 60 40 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 97 71 98 / 60 30 10 0
LOMA LINDA 65 85 65 86 / 70 40 20 10
FABENS 69 94 69 95 / 70 30 30 10
SANTA TERESA 67 90 66 90 / 80 20 50 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 90 69 91 / 80 30 60 20
JORNADA RANGE 65 89 64 89 / 80 40 60 20
HATCH 66 91 64 90 / 80 40 70 20
COLUMBUS 68 90 67 90 / 80 30 70 10
OROGRANDE 65 88 64 88 / 70 50 40 20
MAYHILL 55 78 54 79 / 60 80 40 50
MESCALERO 53 77 53 78 / 70 80 50 50
TIMBERON 53 75 52 77 / 70 60 30 30
WINSTON 56 75 56 77 / 70 70 90 60
HILLSBORO 65 84 63 84 / 70 60 80 30
SPACEPORT 63 87 62 87 / 70 50 70 20
LAKE ROBERTS 56 77 55 80 / 60 60 90 30
HURLEY 61 81 59 82 / 60 50 90 20
CLIFF 63 84 62 86 / 50 70 90 30
MULE CREEK 61 79 61 82 / 60 70 90 40
FAYWOOD 63 81 61 82 / 60 50 90 20
ANIMAS 66 84 64 86 / 50 60 60 10
HACHITA 64 85 62 86 / 50 60 80 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 85 63 87 / 70 70 60 30
CLOVERDALE 62 79 61 83 / 70 80 50 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-UPPER
GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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