354
FXUS64 KEPZ 102341
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
541 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
- EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON VALUES IN THE 100 TO 106 RANGE
IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS AND URBAN AREAS.
- AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IMPROVE. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
REMAINS IN PLACE AND KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 103 AND 108 ACROSS THE DESERT
LOWLANDS. WITH TEMPERTATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRTIERIA, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY FROM 11 AM
THROUGH 9 PM LOCAL TIME FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE
EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES METRO AREAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH A LOW FLOODING POTENTIAL. THESE
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOWS
THAT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ACROSS
THE DESERT LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION, WITH LESS CHANCE OF RAIN IN
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
THIS WEEKEND: ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS MORE
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE AREA TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY EASTERN
PORTIONS ON SATURDAY AND MORE TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THE INCREASE
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH LOW 100'S AND UPPER 90S ON SATURDAY WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ON SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK: THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BE IN FULL FORCE NEXT
WEEK AS A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES CONCENTRATED OVER NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS. NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR KTCS
AND KDMN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING. AN
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING KLRU AND COULD BRING
BLDU AND LOWER VIS TO MVFR LEVELS OR BELOW LIKE WHAT WAS JUST
OBSERVED AT KDMN. CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTFLOW REACHING KELP IS LOW
BUT RADAR TRENDS AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY THE AM WITH MOSTLY SKC
FOR TOMORROW AS WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE W-NW, GUSTING TO
AROUND 20KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA
MOUNTAINS, BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND RAIN AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWLANDS TO GET NEAR AND ABOVE 100 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 103 TO 108 IN THE LOWLANDS ON FRIDAY. RH VALUES
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS, BUT THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY AND A SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FRIDAY. MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND RH'S. MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 107 79 103 / 20 10 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 68 99 67 95 / 10 20 20 30
LAS CRUCES 74 103 72 100 / 20 10 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 71 103 70 99 / 10 10 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 56 81 53 75 / 20 20 10 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 103 73 99 / 30 10 10 30
SILVER CITY 67 95 65 94 / 20 20 20 50
DEMING 76 104 74 103 / 20 20 20 20
LORDSBURG 72 100 71 101 / 20 10 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 79 104 77 101 / 20 10 20 20
DELL CITY 71 102 70 97 / 0 10 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 76 106 75 102 / 10 30 30 30
LOMA LINDA 71 98 69 94 / 10 10 10 20
FABENS 77 105 75 102 / 10 10 10 20
SANTA TERESA 76 103 75 101 / 20 20 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 105 75 101 / 20 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 72 103 69 100 / 20 10 10 30
HATCH 73 105 70 103 / 20 20 20 30
COLUMBUS 79 103 78 103 / 20 20 20 20
OROGRANDE 71 101 71 97 / 10 10 10 30
MAYHILL 62 90 58 83 / 10 20 10 60
MESCALERO 61 92 58 85 / 20 20 10 70
TIMBERON 59 88 57 83 / 10 20 10 60
WINSTON 63 95 60 92 / 30 10 10 50
HILLSBORO 70 102 68 98 / 20 20 20 40
SPACEPORT 70 103 67 99 / 20 10 10 30
LAKE ROBERTS 61 97 59 96 / 30 20 20 60
HURLEY 69 98 68 96 / 20 10 10 40
CLIFF 68 102 66 101 / 20 10 10 40
MULE CREEK 67 98 63 97 / 10 10 10 30
FAYWOOD 70 98 68 96 / 20 20 20 40
ANIMAS 71 100 71 101 / 20 20 30 20
HACHITA 72 100 72 100 / 20 20 30 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 98 70 99 / 30 30 40 20
CLOVERDALE 66 93 64 94 / 40 40 40 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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