656
FXUS64 KEPZ 042330
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FAVORING WESTERN NEW MEXICO. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGH FOR TODAY WITH DEW POINTS THIS MORNING IN
THE LOW-MID 60S. EVEN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPED AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE MIXING OUT. THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK SHOULD
INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE/WARMER TEMPS ALOFT POKING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM
THE OZARKS REGION. IF CONVECTION POPS LATER TODAY, PWS IN THE 1.3-
1.5" RANGE (90-95TH %-ILE FOR EARLY SEP) WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. AREAS W OF THE DIVIDE ARE MORE
LIKELY TO HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR WITH A HIGHER
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO DEPICTED BY CAMS IS STORM COVERAGE REMAINS
LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (10-30% CHANCES), FOLLOWED BY MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT, FOCUSING OVER TX. ISOLATED
RAINFALL OVER 1" IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR EL PASO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES. GUSTY OUTFLOWS UP TO 40 MPH ARE A SECONDARY THREAT.
ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE REMAINS FOR SAT AS PWS FALL TO 1.2-1.3" AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT LIMITS OUR INSTABILITY AND STORM INTENSITY. LIKE
TODAY, STORM CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS
STICK AROUND SAT AM AND KEEP US FROM WARMING UP. GENERALLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR NOW WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS ON SAT.
THE UPPER HIGH SITS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
MIDWEEK, FOCUSING THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
NM/EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES AND THE HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL BE
ELEVATED GENERALLY W OF THE DIVIDE AND OVER THE SACS FROM SUN
ONWARD. MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE IS FORECAST ALONG THE RGV AND EAST AS
PWS HOLD AROUND 1.2", WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH %-ILE. ANY
SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES MOVING UP THE RGV AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL
DETERMINE ANY UPTICKS IN STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS
ARE FORECAST OUT WEST TODAY FURTHER FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT,
WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE SKIES. BASES
WILL RANGE 070-120, LOWER IN TSRA/SHRA. SHRA IS MOVING INTO TCS
WITH TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR DMN AND LRU. CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR ELP. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS AND THE
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREA MTNS WITH
STORM MOTION TO THE NE AS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAIN RATES AND GUSTS TO 30
MPH. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW TODAY. BETTER
STORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT, FAVORING FAR
WEST TX. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
FOR SAT, ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLOUDS STICK AROUND IN THE AM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREATS FOR SAT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED OTHERWISE. FROM SUN ONWARD, STORM CHANCES AND HEAVY
RAINFALL FAVOR WESTERN AREAS WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEP NEXT WEEK. WINDS
STAY LIGHT, SHIFTING MORE E-SE THIS WEEKEND.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 25-35% IN THE LOWLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK, 35-60% IN
THE MTNS. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO GOOD THROUGH SAT, THEN MOSTLY
FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 96 73 97 / 20 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 65 92 65 92 / 40 30 10 10
LAS CRUCES 66 94 68 95 / 10 20 30 10
ALAMOGORDO 68 94 69 94 / 10 20 10 40
CLOUDCROFT 50 70 51 70 / 10 70 20 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 92 70 93 / 20 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 61 87 63 88 / 10 20 10 20
DEMING 66 95 68 96 / 10 10 20 10
LORDSBURG 66 92 68 94 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 95 75 96 / 20 20 20 0
DELL CITY 69 97 69 96 / 20 20 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 98 72 99 / 40 20 20 10
LOMA LINDA 66 89 68 89 / 20 30 20 20
FABENS 70 96 71 97 / 30 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 69 94 70 95 / 10 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 95 73 95 / 10 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 67 94 69 95 / 10 20 20 10
HATCH 68 97 70 98 / 20 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 71 95 72 96 / 10 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 66 93 68 94 / 10 20 20 10
MAYHILL 56 84 56 83 / 10 70 10 50
MESCALERO 55 82 55 82 / 10 60 10 80
TIMBERON 54 81 55 80 / 10 40 20 50
WINSTON 57 83 59 84 / 30 50 10 40
HILLSBORO 66 90 68 92 / 20 30 20 20
SPACEPORT 65 93 68 94 / 20 20 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 55 86 57 87 / 20 30 10 50
HURLEY 62 89 63 91 / 10 10 10 10
CLIFF 62 93 65 95 / 10 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 61 90 62 91 / 10 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 64 89 66 90 / 10 20 20 10
ANIMAS 66 91 68 94 / 20 10 10 10
HACHITA 66 91 67 93 / 20 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 90 66 93 / 20 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 62 85 63 87 / 20 20 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page