386
FXUS64 KEPZ 042334
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
534 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH AND FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE.
- GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, FLOODING, AND EVEN SOME HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. CONTINUED RISKS FOR FLOODING FROM STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MANY LOWLAND
AREAS SEEING THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND OUR
AREA TONIGHT, SO ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, ALBEIT MORE DISORGANIZED WITH LESS COVERAGE
THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WESTERN PART OF
OUR CWA. NEVERTHELESS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE DRY AIR ALOFT
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST KEEPING STORM CHANCES OUT THERE MORE
ISOLATED. HIGHER POPS REMAINING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY AS A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH SITS EAST OF EL
PASO. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY PUSH OUT ON SATURDAY.
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL START TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA ON SUNDAY, PUSHING OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT EL PASO COULD SEE
ITS FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT AIR TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY, BUT IF NOT
SUNDAY THE CHANCES ARE HIGHER FOR MON-WED. WHILE THE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE HEAT THRESHOLD FOR NEXT WEEK, HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR EL PASO AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS WILL APPROACH
105. SOME EASTERLY SURGES OF MOISTURE ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF
THIS HEAT, SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
SCT080 SCT-BKN150 BKN250. ISOLATED BKN060CB 5-7SM -TSRA. MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DONE BY 07Z, ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY
PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS
MAINLY SOUTH 6-10 KNOTS. BETWEEN 03Z-08Z OVER HIDALGO, LUNA, DONA
ANA, AND EL PASO COUNTIES...OUTFLOW WINDS OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
12-17G25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH LINGER OVER THE REGION. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LOOK LIKE A MORE DOWN DAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN FRIDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. SATURDAY
STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SACS. AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, AN
UPPER HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
WARMEST OF THE YEAR WITH 100+ DEGREE HIGHS ON THE LOWLANDS. RH'S
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO
MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 87 66 96 / 10 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 77 57 88 / 50 50 30 10
LAS CRUCES 59 89 59 95 / 10 20 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 63 84 61 92 / 10 50 30 10
CLOUDCROFT 46 64 46 70 / 10 70 30 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 89 63 95 / 0 20 20 0
SILVER CITY 55 84 55 90 / 30 30 20 0
DEMING 60 92 59 97 / 20 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 61 92 60 97 / 20 20 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 86 65 95 / 10 20 20 0
DELL CITY 60 84 58 91 / 20 30 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 64 87 63 96 / 60 40 30 10
LOMA LINDA 60 77 59 86 / 30 40 30 0
FABENS 63 87 62 97 / 30 30 30 0
SANTA TERESA 64 86 60 94 / 10 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 85 68 94 / 10 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 86 60 94 / 0 20 20 0
HATCH 61 90 61 98 / 0 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 64 90 64 99 / 20 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 61 82 59 91 / 10 40 30 0
MAYHILL 51 76 51 81 / 10 50 20 50
MESCALERO 50 75 50 81 / 0 60 30 30
TIMBERON 48 70 47 77 / 20 50 20 30
WINSTON 52 83 53 88 / 10 30 30 20
HILLSBORO 60 87 60 94 / 20 20 30 10
SPACEPORT 58 87 58 94 / 0 20 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 52 87 51 92 / 30 40 20 0
HURLEY 55 86 55 93 / 20 30 20 0
CLIFF 55 92 56 98 / 20 30 20 0
MULE CREEK 54 89 54 93 / 20 20 20 0
FAYWOOD 57 85 57 92 / 30 20 20 10
ANIMAS 60 92 60 98 / 20 10 20 0
HACHITA 59 90 59 97 / 20 20 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 90 60 97 / 20 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 58 86 57 91 / 20 10 20 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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