481
FXUS64 KEPZ 040438
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1038 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING
GUSTY OVERNIGHT WINDS AND ALSO INTRODUCING SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
- SOME MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW CHANCES, 20%,
LINGERING FOR MAINLY THE GILA ON MONDAY.
- MORE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER TO
END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
A LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERING THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. ANOTHER FEATURE, A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER
SD, IS ALSO INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER AS IT PUSHES A SIDE DOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTH. IT IS JUST REACHING LAS CRUCES, AS OF 10PM. WINDS
WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME HAZY SKIES, BUT NO
WIND HEADLINES ARE OUT AS GUSTS SHOULD STAY UNDER 50 MPH. BY
MID-DAY, THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE,
SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE EAST. SATURDAY WILL BE A COOLER, BREEZY
DAY WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
THE EASTERLY TAP WILL BEGIN DRAWING IN RECYCLED GULF MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK U/L TROUGH, MORE DEFINED
WITHIN THE GFS, ALONG WITH SOME OVERRUNNING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL HELP FOSTER SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE MOISTURE
IS DEEPEST. ELSEWHERE, GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS, ANY LOCATIONS LUCKY
ENOUGH TO RECEIVE RAINFALL WILL ONLY SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP, TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH EASTER AS
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE STICKS AROUND ON MONDAY BUT WE LOSE OUR UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WITH HEIGHT RISES AND A WEAK S/W RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN SUNDAY, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS DO
INDICATE OUR MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN, BUT NOT ELSEWHERE.
RAIN CHANCES GO BACK UP FOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER S/W TROUGH CUTS
THROUGH THE FLOW. LIKE SUNDAY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT. ECMWF IS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY (250-400), SO
IF THAT MATERIALIZES, THERE'D BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY
WILL ALSO BE A BIT WARMER, CLOSER TO NORMAL.
THE S/W TROUGH WILL SWEEP OUT MOISTURE, BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY FOR
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO EASTERN AREAS
ON THURSDAY WITH LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD TOWARD THE 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH
(350-020). SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN FROM
THE EAST BY 18Z. SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WILL RANGE 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. SOME HAZE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SKIES
WILL BE VARIABLE WITH BASES 200+.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME, PROMOTING NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL AFTERNOON MIN
RH VALUES AND LOW-END BREEZY WINDS. MOSTLY ALL AREAS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW 15% FOR MIN RH, WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000
FEET. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
A QUASI PACIFIC/SIDE DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE, OUT OF THE NORTH, THEN WILL VEER
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY REMAINING GUSTY ALONG WEST
SLOPES. TEMPERATURE WILL TREND DOWN THIS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RH VALUES ON SATURDAY, WITH VALUES
INCREASING TO 20-40 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
ENTER THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS WELL, THESE SLIGHT/LOW-END
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 54 74 52 66 / 0 0 10 50
SIERRA BLANCA 47 68 45 60 / 0 0 30 70
LAS CRUCES 47 71 47 65 / 0 0 10 40
ALAMOGORDO 44 74 42 68 / 0 0 0 30
CLOUDCROFT 30 51 30 45 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 72 46 69 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 41 69 44 62 / 0 0 0 20
DEMING 49 74 48 68 / 0 0 10 40
LORDSBURG 43 74 50 68 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 74 53 65 / 0 0 20 50
DELL CITY 48 71 46 64 / 0 0 10 30
FORT HANCOCK 50 77 50 68 / 0 0 30 70
LOMA LINDA 49 66 46 57 / 0 0 10 50
FABENS 52 75 50 68 / 0 0 20 60
SANTA TERESA 49 72 50 65 / 0 0 20 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 74 50 65 / 0 0 10 40
JORNADA RANGE 44 73 45 66 / 0 0 10 30
HATCH 46 76 47 69 / 0 0 10 30
COLUMBUS 52 76 53 68 / 0 0 10 30
OROGRANDE 45 71 47 65 / 0 0 10 40
MAYHILL 34 59 32 55 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 33 61 32 58 / 0 0 0 20
TIMBERON 34 58 34 52 / 0 0 10 30
WINSTON 31 66 34 62 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 44 71 43 65 / 0 0 0 30
SPACEPORT 41 73 41 67 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 34 70 40 65 / 0 0 0 20
HURLEY 40 70 41 63 / 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 38 77 44 72 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 37 74 43 70 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 45 69 45 61 / 0 0 10 30
ANIMAS 46 74 50 70 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 46 73 49 66 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 74 49 69 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 49 70 49 68 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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