426
FXUS64 KEPZ 240451
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1051 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 10:50 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS ABOVE 100
DEGREES. WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN DONA ANA, EL PASO AND THE
LOWER VALLEY THURSDAY.
- SOME MOISTURE GIVES THE AREA, MOSTLY MOUNTAINS, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY. PRETTY MUCH OF ALL THE
LOWLAND ZONES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY
TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F DEGREES TO AS HOT AS
108F. IN ADDITION, SOME MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, MOSTLY IN
THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND HIGH TERRAIN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 30-40 DEGREE RANGE TOMORROW WHICH WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO THE
DRY LIGHTNING CONCERN. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. EXPECT ANOTHER HOT
DAY THURSDAY, BUT WON'T BE QUITE AS HOT AS WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS
JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT
THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY, EL PASO, AND THE LOWER
VALLEY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS THURSDAY TO 40-45
DEGREES, AS WELL AS PW, SO MOISTURE IS STILL TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS, WE
CAN CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN FRIDAY FROM THE NW WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO FAR WEST TX. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PUSH AND PULL OF MOISTURE. BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN FAR
WEST TX WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE.
MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL HAVE BROKEN DOWN OVER THE
AREA AND MOVED EAST OVER THE GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACNW SHOULD TAKE SHAPE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SOME BREEZIER
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. STORMS
WILL INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL NM AROUND
NOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING STORMS PUSH EASTWARD GIVING
KTCS A CHANCE FOR STORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS AS SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL
BE ISOLATED. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FROM
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MAIN FIRE CONCERNS THIS PERIOD IS THE LENGTHY DRYING OUT OF THE
AIRMASS AND FUELS. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
ANYTHING STORMS OCCURRING TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE RAIN, BUT A
RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING. THE LOWLANDS ZONES WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND TURNS DRIER
AGAIN. ERCS MOST ZONES ARE ALREADY AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS WILL BE A FEW DAYS LATER TO
REACH BOTH THESE LEVELS. THUS, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR
CRITICAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...6-12% WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 12-18% THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MOUNTAINS...8-15% WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 15-25%
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 107 79 105 / 0 0 0 30
SIERRA BLANCA 71 102 72 101 / 0 10 10 20
LAS CRUCES 70 104 72 102 / 0 10 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 73 104 72 102 / 0 10 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 57 82 55 79 / 0 20 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 103 72 100 / 0 10 10 30
SILVER CITY 68 98 67 94 / 0 10 10 10
DEMING 70 107 71 104 / 0 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 70 103 70 100 / 0 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 106 78 103 / 0 0 0 30
DELL CITY 70 105 71 104 / 0 10 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 77 108 77 107 / 0 10 10 30
LOMA LINDA 72 99 72 97 / 0 10 10 30
FABENS 76 108 77 106 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA TERESA 73 105 74 102 / 0 0 10 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 105 78 103 / 0 10 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 71 104 71 102 / 0 10 10 20
HATCH 72 107 72 105 / 0 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 75 107 76 104 / 0 0 10 20
OROGRANDE 70 103 71 101 / 0 10 10 30
MAYHILL 61 92 60 91 / 0 20 10 20
MESCALERO 60 93 58 90 / 0 20 10 20
TIMBERON 58 90 58 88 / 0 20 10 10
WINSTON 64 93 61 91 / 10 20 10 30
HILLSBORO 72 101 70 99 / 0 20 10 20
SPACEPORT 69 104 68 101 / 0 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 61 98 60 94 / 0 20 10 20
HURLEY 68 101 68 98 / 0 10 10 10
CLIFF 67 103 67 100 / 0 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 66 99 65 95 / 0 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 70 100 69 97 / 0 10 10 10
ANIMAS 71 103 70 100 / 0 20 10 20
HACHITA 70 103 70 100 / 0 20 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 103 70 100 / 0 20 20 20
CLOVERDALE 68 97 67 94 / 0 20 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF
THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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