293
FXUS64 KEPZ 301734
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1134 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS. VERY SPOTTY, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
..TODAY AND TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE THE
PREVAILING PATTERN LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH,
WHICH MEANS LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S. FLOW OUT OF THE
WEST GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH BOTH DAYS.
MARGINAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED (10-20%) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE FOCUSED ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY.
..WEDNESDAY
MUCH MORE OPEN FLOW REGIME ALOFT MIDWEEK, MORE TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME IN THE BORDERLAND. 60-KNOT JET STREAK ALOFT CROSSING
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP.
992MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SE COLORADO SUGGESTS A BREEZY
AFTERNOON, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 30 TO
40 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE MOST COMMON. WE COULD
ALSO SEE MORE SPOTTY (20-30%) RAIN SHOWERS, WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOCUSED NORTH TOWARD ALBUQUERQUE AND THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.
PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG I-10 AND THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER.
..THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
DRIER AIR RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY SEEING
ANY CONCERNING WIND SPEEDS ANY PARTICULAR DAY, SO NOT ANTICIPATING
WIND HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY APRIL, WHICH MEANS LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER-TO-MID
80S. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT INTRUSION AGAIN SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER THIS ONE LOOKS DRIER AND WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE INTRUSIONS. COULD LEAD TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER-
WISE AND A NICE EASTER SUNDAY FOR EL PASO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ISOLATED -RA THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW NM, SCT-BKN110 CLOUD BASES.
COULD SEE SUDDEN GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT KTCS/KDMN BETWEEN 23-03Z
TONIGHT DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM NEARBY WEAK CONVECTION. LEFT OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT
KELP FEW-SCT120, SCT-BKN200 TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
240-270 AT 08 TO 12 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
DRY LIGHTNING RISK NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR GILA NATIONAL
FOREST AS ISOLATED (10-20%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
MIN RH 20-30% WITH WIND OUT OF THE WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. VENTILATION
WILL BE VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EXCELLENT TOMORROW.
WINDS INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WEST FLOW 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. NO RED FLAG PLANNED DUE TO HIGHER
MOISTURE (MIN RH 30-40%) AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FOR GNF/LNF.
CONDITIONS BECOMING MUCH DRIER THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST FLOW BOTH DAYS. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THOSE DAYS, WITH RED FLAGS POSSIBLE IF WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE. COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE EAST NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING
LIGHTER WINDS, SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASES, AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW FIRE DANGER NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 87 62 80 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 54 83 55 79 / 20 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 53 84 55 76 / 10 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 50 83 53 76 / 10 0 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 42 60 42 53 / 10 10 10 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 83 57 74 / 20 10 10 30
SILVER CITY 49 75 49 66 / 10 10 10 40
DEMING 52 85 55 76 / 10 10 10 20
LORDSBURG 50 81 53 73 / 10 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 86 63 79 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 51 87 54 81 / 10 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 56 90 59 86 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 55 80 57 74 / 10 0 0 20
FABENS 58 88 61 83 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 55 84 58 77 / 10 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 86 61 78 / 10 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 49 84 52 76 / 10 10 10 20
HATCH 50 88 55 79 / 10 0 10 20
COLUMBUS 58 86 61 79 / 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 51 83 55 76 / 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 47 74 46 67 / 0 10 10 30
MESCALERO 43 72 43 63 / 10 10 20 50
TIMBERON 45 71 45 63 / 0 0 0 30
WINSTON 42 76 43 67 / 20 10 10 40
HILLSBORO 53 82 53 73 / 20 10 10 30
SPACEPORT 47 83 51 75 / 10 10 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 45 74 45 65 / 20 10 20 50
HURLEY 47 78 48 69 / 10 10 10 30
CLIFF 46 81 48 72 / 10 10 10 40
MULE CREEK 47 76 47 67 / 10 20 20 50
FAYWOOD 50 78 50 69 / 10 10 10 30
ANIMAS 52 82 56 75 / 20 20 10 20
HACHITA 50 82 55 75 / 10 10 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 82 55 76 / 20 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 52 76 53 70 / 20 20 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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