103
FXUS64 KEPZ 230021
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
621 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
TODAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL RANGE UPPER 90S
TO 105, WHICH WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORDS.
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF RECYCLED
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH OVER THE CWA. PWS RANGING FROM .80
TO 1.00 INCH, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO 50. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY TO BLACK RANGE/GRANT COUNTY. THOSE THUNDERSTORMS/
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED AT THIS TIME BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND NOON TO 6-7 PM. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE BLACK RANGE MAY
DELAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT A FEW HOURS IN THAT AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER HIGH NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NEW
MEXICO BUT SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE ARIZONA BORDER. LITTLE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALWAYS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY
WARM/HOT WITH HIGH TEMPS EACH RANGING FROM AROUND 98 TO 105;
APPROACHING LATE AUGUST RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE EL PASO/LOWER VALLEY ZONES.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER HIGH DRIFTS INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA, BRINGING A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CWA. SO A
RETURN OF LOW POPS IS WARRANTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS. CAN'T RULE OUT
A LOWLAND STORM OR TWO ALSO, MAINLY OVER OTERO, SIERRA AND
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTIES, THOUGH THIS ISN'T REFLECTED IN THE
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER (AND
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS) WHICH
MEANS NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS AND NOT A LOT OF WINDS. OUR CEILINGS
WILL BE UNLIMITED TONIGHT AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UNLIMITED
CEILINGS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME LOW END GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THOSE WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS TOMORROW. KTCS MAY SEE SOME LOW END WIND GUSTS FOR A
FEW HOURS MUCH LIKE TODAY. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS (AND BEYOND).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM, NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR MUCH OF
THIS TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ALLOW FUELS TO DRY
OUT SOME, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THEN THE CHANCES SHRINK SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER HIGH
DRIFTING OFF TO THE WEST THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 10-15% THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 12-18%
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GILA/BLACK RANGE MOUNTAINS...15-25% THROUGH
FRIDAY. SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MOUNTAINS...20-35% THROUGH FRIDAY. VENT
RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 101 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 70 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 99 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 99 71 101 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 65 93 65 95 / 10 0 10 10
DEMING 71 100 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 72 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 70 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 104 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 99 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 102 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 99 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 90 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 57 88 57 90 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 56 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 61 90 62 92 / 20 10 10 0
HILLSBORO 70 98 69 99 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 99 65 101 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 92 59 93 / 20 0 10 20
HURLEY 67 96 66 97 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 65 101 68 101 / 20 0 10 10
MULE CREEK 62 97 63 97 / 20 0 10 10
FAYWOOD 69 95 68 97 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 71 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 99 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 67 94 65 94 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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