853
FXUS64 KEPZ 241735
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1135 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING EL
PASO, HUDSPETH, AND OTERO COUNTIES. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- STORM CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIMITED
MOSTLY TO HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- TYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ANOTHER ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED WITH AN ALMOST
EXACT SAME PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE MOVE OUT OF WESTERN ZONES AND THE FOCUS WILL BE
THE RGV EAST. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE, SO INITIAL
CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG CAMS THAT STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A BOW TYPE
ECHO AS IT HEADS EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THE NBM POPS SEEMED TOO
HIGH OVER THE WEST AND TAPERED BACK SOME.
FOR SUN, UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE BRINGING US THE WEATHER TODAY
WILL BE LIFTING NE INTO UT/CO BORDER REGION AND DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE A EASTWARD PUSH. AGAIN, MODELS AGREE THAT THE DRIER AIR
MAKES IT INTO THE RGV AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE HUDSPETH
COUNTY LINE. THERE WILL REMAIN SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES, SO A FEW AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL SEE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP NICELY INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY
THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON A WESTWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE/COOLER
AIR. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT AND KEEPS MOISTURE
EAST WHILE OTHERS BRING IT AT LEAST THROUGH THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. AIGFS IS ALSO LOOKING CLOSER TO EC/NAM SO WILL GO THAT WAY
WHICH MAINLY AFFECTS TEMPS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THEN FOR MON,
ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES. WILL ALSO KEEP SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING OUT THERE AND AGAIN, A FEW SEVERE ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
A WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EAST OF
THE AREA FOR TUE/WED. NOT MUCH CHANCE IF ANY FOR PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW TAPPING SOME MORE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN. COULD BE SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THU/FRI. MODELS SHOWING SOME SHEAR OVER THE AREA BUT INSTABILITY
ISN'T AS HIGH AS RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING
DOWN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
P6SM FEW-BKN060-080 TO START THE PERIOD WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA MOUNTAINS. BY 20Z, EXPECT TO
HAVE SCATTERED TO NMRS VRB20G35KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 DEVELOPING
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AGAIN
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BY 06Z WITH SKIES OVER THE WEST BECOMING SKC-FEW120 WHILE THE
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE SCT-BKN060-080 BKN200-250. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 5-15G25KTS TURNING MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CONTINUE ON WITH THE FIRE THREAT BEING LOW AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THIS PRECIP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
EAST OF THE RGV. A COUPLE DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER THEN A RETURN TO A
MORE MOIST PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH RH'S AT OR ABOVE 20%. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD SUN AND DROP TO
POOR TO FAIR FOR MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 79 57 75 / 50 10 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 58 76 53 73 / 70 20 60 60
LAS CRUCES 54 75 52 72 / 30 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 53 74 50 72 / 90 20 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 40 54 39 54 / 100 20 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 71 48 69 / 30 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 67 43 69 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 47 75 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 73 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 78 59 75 / 30 10 10 20
DELL CITY 56 76 55 73 / 90 30 80 60
FORT HANCOCK 58 81 59 81 / 60 20 40 50
LOMA LINDA 55 71 52 68 / 80 20 50 40
FABENS 58 81 57 78 / 60 10 30 30
SANTA TERESA 54 77 55 74 / 30 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 76 56 73 / 60 10 20 30
JORNADA RANGE 51 76 51 72 / 50 10 10 10
HATCH 52 76 50 74 / 20 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 53 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 53 74 52 71 / 90 20 20 30
MAYHILL 48 64 44 65 / 100 20 40 50
MESCALERO 46 64 42 64 / 90 30 20 20
TIMBERON 42 61 41 61 / 90 40 40 50
WINSTON 38 66 36 65 / 20 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 70 46 70 / 10 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 72 47 70 / 40 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 35 65 32 69 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 40 71 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 37 68 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 69 45 69 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 48 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-OTERO MESA-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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