569
FXUS64 KEPZ 111127
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
527 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
TRIPLE DIGITS SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR STRONGER STORMS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START SHIFTING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY,
THEN STARTS SHIFTING OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
SUNDAY. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING OVER THE AREA
MOUNTAINS WITH MORE ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THE LOWLANDS FOR THE WEEKEND. ONE MORE TRIPLE DIGIT DAY SATURDAY
WITH MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEEING UPPER 90S AND LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS FOR HIGHS. HIGHS DIP BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE BORDERLAND
WILL BE UNDER EAST FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY. A GOOD
SOUTHEAST FETCH FROM THE GULF WILL ENTRAIN ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PWS OF 1.3- 1.4". MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK
TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE. BIGGEST THING
TO WATCH WILL BE ANY FLOODING WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE STILL
SUGGESTING AN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK OR SO WHICH COULD BRING MORE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LIKE YESTERDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN AREA MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. CURRENTLY WE HAVE SOME HIGH CEILINGS
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
WE WILL HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL HAVE LOW END WIND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AND WE WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN
AREA MOUNTAINS. AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, OUR WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO THE EAST AND COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES. MIN RH'S
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE
20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS. MIN RH'S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE COMING WEEK. VENTILATION RATES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 97 73 92 / 0 10 30 50
SIERRA BLANCA 66 90 63 85 / 0 30 40 70
LAS CRUCES 70 95 67 90 / 20 10 30 30
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 67 90 / 10 40 20 50
CLOUDCROFT 51 71 50 68 / 10 40 40 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 95 69 91 / 30 50 70 20
SILVER CITY 64 89 63 85 / 40 50 50 40
DEMING 69 98 67 94 / 30 40 50 30
LORDSBURG 68 95 68 91 / 40 40 60 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 95 74 91 / 0 10 30 50
DELL CITY 69 93 67 90 / 0 20 20 50
FORT HANCOCK 73 97 71 92 / 0 30 40 70
LOMA LINDA 68 89 65 84 / 0 20 20 50
FABENS 74 97 71 93 / 0 20 30 60
SANTA TERESA 73 95 70 90 / 10 10 30 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 96 73 91 / 20 20 30 30
JORNADA RANGE 71 95 68 91 / 20 20 20 20
HATCH 71 98 68 94 / 20 30 40 20
COLUMBUS 74 98 72 92 / 20 30 50 40
OROGRANDE 70 93 67 90 / 0 20 20 30
MAYHILL 56 81 54 77 / 10 50 60 60
MESCALERO 55 82 53 79 / 10 40 30 60
TIMBERON 53 80 51 76 / 10 40 40 60
WINSTON 61 87 59 83 / 30 50 60 30
HILLSBORO 68 93 65 88 / 40 50 70 30
SPACEPORT 68 95 66 91 / 20 30 50 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 90 57 87 / 40 50 50 50
HURLEY 64 92 63 88 / 40 40 50 20
CLIFF 65 94 64 91 / 30 50 50 50
MULE CREEK 63 91 62 88 / 20 50 60 50
FAYWOOD 66 91 64 86 / 40 40 60 30
ANIMAS 67 95 67 90 / 50 40 50 40
HACHITA 67 94 66 90 / 40 40 50 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 94 66 88 / 50 50 60 70
CLOVERDALE 63 89 63 84 / 40 50 60 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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