114
FXUS64 KEPZ 270534
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1034 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
- RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES.
- LIGHTER WINDS, BUT STILL SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
- NEXT WEEK, CONTINUE FAIR, DRY, AND WARM. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE
AS WARM AS THIS WEEKEND, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO
PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT, BUT BREEZY PERIODS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
OUR WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MARCH AS UPPER RIDGING
HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, APPROACHING MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY.
EL PASO'S FEB RECORD HIGH IS 86, WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE
28TH IS 87 (NBM GIVES KELP A 60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST TYING THE
RECORD). SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. KELP HAS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF
HITTING 90 ON SUN, WHICH WOULD BLOW AWAY THE RECORD FOR EARLIEST 90,
SET ON MARCH 18, 1907. FAIR SKIES AND SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS BY THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION, BRINGING BREEZIER CONDITIONS. NEXT WEEK'S WINDS
DON'T LOOK VERY IMPACTFUL AS OF NOW, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF TUESDAY'S SYSTEM AND WHERE THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. CURRENTLY, TUE LOOKS LIKE A 15-25 MPH, GUSTING
TO 35 MPH TYPE OF DAY FROM THE WEST. A WEAK FRONT ACCOMPANIES THIS
SYSTEM, KNOCKING DOWN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT
STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. THE
NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO
FOR TUE. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND SUPPLY
SOME MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING ANY RAIN CHANCES
FOR NEXT THU/FRI, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AOB 10KTS, GENERALLY FROM THE N-NW WITH VARIABILITY DURING THE
DAY. SKC-FEW250 EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND WITH RH'S FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH SO THE FIRE THREAT WILL NOT
BE HIGH. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE AND SPRING RETURNS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH ERC'S COMING UP WITH THE PROLONGED DRY AIR,
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME RED FLAG DAYS WILL OCCUR. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD FRI AND IMPROVE TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 84 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 80 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 80 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 58 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 47 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 48 83 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 81 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 45 83 46 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 50 85 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 81 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 45 83 46 87 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 83 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 78 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 74 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 39 70 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 46 69 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 75 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 80 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 40 76 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 42 81 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 44 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 48 82 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 81 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 82 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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