774
FXUS64 KEPZ 120512
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1012 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 920 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
- FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER SEVENTIES,
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
- OUR NEXT PACIFIC STORM ARRIVES FRIDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
LOWLAND RAIN AND A WINTRY MIX OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER EXITS EARLY SATURDAY, WITH FAIR WEATHER
FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF STRONGER
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
THE REGION RESIDED UNDER THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
FEATURE ALOFT OVER TEXAS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS BORDERLAND. THE STREAM OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR STREAMS OF HIGH CLOUDS, AND A FEW MID CLOUDS, BUT
OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
70S, NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
FRIDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE THE AFFECTS OF OUR NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ARRIVES, AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
SCAL/N BAJA AREA. WE WILL SEE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY, AS TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER AVERAGE.
THE SYSTEM TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND AIMS IT DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MOISTURE, COMBINED
WITH DIFFLUENT LIFTING FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREA
WIDE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
SW NEW MEXICO, SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND INTO
FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 50-80% RANGE
LOOK GOOD, WITH THE BEST RAIN/SNOW CHANCES OVER THE GILA AREA. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING, HELPING TO PROVIDE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT, AIDING
IN RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES , WITH THE FRONT WILL
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FROM 8500 FEET DOWN TO AROUND 7500 FEET, WHICH
MEANS HIGH ELEVATIONS SITES LIKE CLOUDCROFT AND PINOS ALTOS COULD
SEE A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE
MINIMAL WITH THIS QUICK HITTING EVENT, LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR THE MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES. TOTAL RAIN QPF IS 0.10-0.25" FOR
MOST AREAS, THUS LOW IMPACTS.
THE STORM SYSTEM REMAINS PROGRESSIVE, AND EXITS OUR PORTION OF NEW
MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERTAKE
THE REGION AFTER MIDDAY, ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SPEEDING UP THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM, SO RAIN/SNOW COULD END,
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MEANS THE
BULK OF THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY, WITH CLEARING SKIES. WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURE REMAIN COOL WITH THE COOLER NW WINDS, WHICH
LOOK TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL FOLLOW, WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS UNDER A PASSING SHARP UPPER HIGH.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MODELS FEATURE A PATTERN THAT SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT
PATTERN OF WEST COAST TROUGHING, WITH SHORTWAVES GETTING SPIT OUT
AND LIFTING E TO NE ACROSS, AND NORTH OF, THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS PUTS OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SWATHS, WITH A REGION OF DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS OVER AREAS
TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE BREEZY, GUSTY, AND POTENTIALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE GILA.
THIS PATTERN IS NOT UNLIKE WHAT WE SEE AS MORE TYPICAL SPRING
CONDITIONS, AS THE TRACK OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BEGIN TO TAKE A
FLATTER W TO E TRACK, AND PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS DEEP SW AND W FLOW REGIME WILL RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. VARIABLE SKY COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SKIES VARYING FROM FEW080 SCT250 THROUGH TO FEW160 BKN250 AFT 12Z...
AND THEN BACK TO FEW-SCT250 AFT 18Z. SURFACE WINDS 160-240 AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 18KTS, BUT GUSTS
ENDING, AND SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 3-5KTS BY/AFT 03Z, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING MORE TO 220-250 TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SOUTH WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD VENTILATION. A FEW HOURS OF GOOD VENT
RATES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES, GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH. NEW
PRECIPITATION TOTALS 0.25-0.50" FORECASTED FOR THE LOCAL MOUNTAIN
FORESTS, WITH SNOW LIMITED MOSTLY TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEW WEEK.
THE START OF THE SPRING WINDY SEASON LOOKS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION
AND TRANSPORT CONSISTENTLY TO THE ENE. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN GOING FORWARD AS THE FORESTS QUICKLY
DRY AND ERCS INCREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 74 52 66 / 0 0 0 70
SIERRA BLANCA 43 71 51 66 / 0 0 0 60
LAS CRUCES 43 71 47 62 / 0 0 10 70
ALAMOGORDO 42 71 47 65 / 0 0 0 70
CLOUDCROFT 35 51 36 46 / 0 0 0 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 72 47 61 / 0 0 0 70
SILVER CITY 42 64 44 56 / 0 0 10 90
DEMING 43 73 47 64 / 0 0 10 80
LORDSBURG 43 69 46 60 / 0 0 10 80
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 73 54 65 / 0 0 0 70
DELL CITY 40 72 47 67 / 0 0 0 60
FORT HANCOCK 45 77 52 72 / 0 0 0 70
LOMA LINDA 45 67 51 61 / 0 0 0 70
FABENS 46 75 52 69 / 0 0 0 70
SANTA TERESA 45 72 50 64 / 0 0 0 70
WHITE SANDS HQ 47 72 52 65 / 0 0 10 70
JORNADA RANGE 42 72 45 64 / 0 0 10 70
HATCH 42 75 46 66 / 0 0 10 80
COLUMBUS 46 74 50 65 / 0 0 10 80
OROGRANDE 42 71 49 64 / 0 0 0 70
MAYHILL 37 66 40 58 / 0 0 0 70
MESCALERO 36 62 38 58 / 0 0 0 80
TIMBERON 39 59 42 54 / 0 0 0 70
WINSTON 33 65 37 56 / 0 0 0 80
HILLSBORO 43 71 46 61 / 0 0 10 80
SPACEPORT 40 71 44 62 / 0 0 0 70
LAKE ROBERTS 37 64 40 56 / 0 0 10 90
HURLEY 40 67 43 58 / 0 0 10 90
CLIFF 40 69 43 61 / 0 0 10 90
MULE CREEK 40 66 42 57 / 0 0 10 90
FAYWOOD 43 67 46 58 / 0 0 10 90
ANIMAS 45 71 48 62 / 0 0 10 80
HACHITA 43 71 47 61 / 0 0 10 70
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 72 47 62 / 0 0 10 70
CLOVERDALE 46 64 47 55 / 0 0 10 80
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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