747
FXUS64 KEPZ 041704
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1104 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- COOL OCTOBER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WARMING A BIT
THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
THIS WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK AFTER SEPTEMBER'S HEAVY RAIN. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER LOCALLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE HIGH SPANNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN E/SE FLOW AND A SUBTLE COOL AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
START OF OCTOBER, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW- END
BREEZY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
THE WEEK AHEAD IS A BIT MESSY TO FORECAST, GIVEN WEAK FORCING
ALOFT AND FEW DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES. PREVAILING MID-LATITUDE JET FLOW
REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S, NOT
AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA MUCH AT ALL. WEAK UPPER HIGH DRIFTS
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, PUTTING US RIGHT NEAR NORMAL. THIS
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK INTO A DEVELOPING LOW, DEVELOPING
DIRECTLY OVER NM/TX MIDWEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBLEM IS
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LOW, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ONLY 0.8-1.0". THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH, AND WE'LL
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THAT MOISTURE CAN DRIFT THIS FAR NORTH.
RIGHT NOW, THE ANSWER IS NO AND THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. NBM IS STARTING TO CATCH ON TO THESE LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES, SO MENTIONABLE POPS (10-30%) ARE NOW INCLUDED
FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW FLUSHES ALL
THIS MOISTURE OUT BY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKIES FEW-SCT050 THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS 080-120 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. PEAK GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ACROSS SW NM THROUGH 00Z. LIGHTER FLOW OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY
050-090 AOB 8 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND HIGH FUEL MOISTURE. ERC
ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER AHEAD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY, WITH VENT RATES STAYING
POOR. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. LIGHT EAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 73 58 77 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 57 76 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 56 75 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 57 42 61 / 20 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 53 71 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 57 77 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 58 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 78 58 82 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 82 63 85 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 55 72 56 75 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 61 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 78 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 78 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 56 77 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 57 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 79 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 76 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 68 46 73 / 20 10 0 0
MESCALERO 48 68 47 71 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 64 46 66 / 10 10 0 0
WINSTON 49 69 46 73 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 74 56 78 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 55 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 53 73 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 55 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 52 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 55 72 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 58 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 76 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 77 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 56 74 56 77 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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