874
FXUS64 KEPZ 251153
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
553 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 550 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIFT UP THROUGH OTERO
COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR, AND LINGER LONGER IN EASTERN EL PASO
AND MUCH OF HUDSPETH COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
- ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE FEW STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
- A QUIET WEEKEND IS AHEAD.
- DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL RETURN, PERHAPS ENHANCED BY TROPICAL
REMNANTS FROM POLO, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
REGARDLESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WOUND-UP CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA IS SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH A
NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT KEEPING SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO QUIET TONIGHT.
AN 80+ KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM NOSING INTO NORTHERN SONORA UP
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS, COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, HAS LED TO SEVERAL ORGANIZED
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN, ALL ARCING INTO
INDIVIDUAL MCSS. THE FIRST TWO MANAGED TO MORE OR LESS SPLIT
AROUND EL PASO CITY, BUT ARE MORE OR LESS MERGED TOGETHER AGAIN,
ARCING FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA COUNTY, DOWN THE TULAROSA BASIN, AND
JUST FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE EL PASO-HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE.
EXPECT STORMS OVER SIERRA COUNTY TO WEAKEN, WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
ACROSS OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF
STORMS NEAR AHUMADA IN CHIHUAHUA WILL LIFT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
HUDSPETH COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE'S STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
A FEW STORMS POPPING UP OVER EL PASO IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, AS
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER PRE-MERGED COMPLEXES
MEET, BUT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST, IT'S A
FAIRLY LOW CHANCE.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LOW
IN ARIZONA WILL GRAZE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS A WEAKENED TROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND A TRAILING VORT LOBE WILL WORK INTO
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DEEP NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE,
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG).
EXPECT WE WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, SOME OF THEM APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR LINGERING. SIERRA,
OTERO, AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, RUNNING OUT WELL AHEAD OF 'POLO', WHILE AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AGAIN. POLO LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES TOWARDS US OR THE BIG BEND
AREA. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH POLO ARE THE BIGGER
PLAYER THAN THE MOISTURE, WHICH MOSTLY GETS WASHED OUT OVER BAJA
AND THE SIERRA MADRES. THE GFS SHOWS A MODEST JUMP IN PWAT AROUND
EL PASO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FROM ABOUT 1.45 TO 1.60 INCHES. THE
LATTER IS A HIGH-END VALUE FOR US, BUT POLO OR NOT, THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
DYNAMICS ALOFT, AS POLO WEAKENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
VORT MAX, ARE PERHAPS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ITS MOISTURE POTENTIAL.
500MB FLOW AHEAD OF ITS REMNANT TROUGH INCREASES TO 50-65 KNOTS,
SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULDN'T BE DOWNPLAYED. RIGHT NOW, THAT
AREA LOOKS TO MOSTLY STAY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO, BUT WILL
NEED TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED. OTHERWISE, THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY SLOTTING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
"KICKER" LOW WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z
GFS EVEN LOOKS A BIT DRY AND BREEZY AS LEE TROUGHING MERGES WITH
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF POLO'S LOW LEVEL REFLECTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
EARLY MORNING TSRA ACROSS SE NM, MOVING NE AWAY FROM LOCAL TAF
SITES. SKIES FEW-SCT020 SCT-BKN050 THIS MORNING, WITH SOME CLOUDS
TOPPING MTNS. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KELP THROUGH 16Z.
CONDITIONS BECOMING VMC AREA WIDE BY MIDDAY, WITH FEW-SCT080 AND
SURFACE WINDS 120-160 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. TS COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY SPOTTY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY EAST OF KELP OVER W TX AND
SE NM. NO MENTION OF TS IN CURRENT TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECT IMPACTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 30S-MID
50S IN THE LOWLANDS AND BLACK RANGE. THESE VALUES REACH UP TO 85% IN
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE PREDOMINANTLY
IMPACTS AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HUDSPETH
AND OTERO GETTING THE BULK OF PRECIP. SIERRA MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LATE THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSING
MIN RHS TO FALL TO THE MID 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING THOSE VALUES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL STAY LIGHT AS
THEY MOVE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. VENTILATION
RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 84 65 86 / 20 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 57 83 59 84 / 30 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 61 81 61 83 / 10 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 59 82 59 85 / 30 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 62 45 64 / 30 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 80 60 82 / 20 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 55 78 56 79 / 10 0 0 20
DEMING 60 84 61 86 / 10 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 60 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 84 64 86 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 59 86 59 88 / 30 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 89 66 90 / 20 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 59 78 62 81 / 20 0 0 10
FABENS 63 87 64 89 / 20 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 62 83 62 85 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 82 65 85 / 20 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 60 81 60 84 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 61 84 61 86 / 20 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 63 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 80 59 83 / 20 0 0 10
MAYHILL 49 78 49 79 / 20 0 0 10
MESCALERO 48 73 48 75 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 71 48 73 / 30 0 0 10
WINSTON 49 75 50 76 / 10 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 58 81 59 82 / 20 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 57 80 57 82 / 20 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 49 77 50 78 / 10 0 0 20
HURLEY 55 80 56 81 / 20 0 0 10
CLIFF 57 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 55 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 57 80 57 81 / 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 61 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 60 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 86 62 87 / 10 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 59 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...42-FARLOW
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