224
FXUS64 KEPZ 101139
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
539 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH BLOWING
DUST POSSIBLE. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
APRIL IS OUR DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR, BUT YOU WOULDN'T KNOW IT
LOOKING AT THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PW'S) WILL START THE DAY
AROUND 0.50 BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THOSE VALUES WILL NEARLY DOUBLE
TO 0.80 TO 1.00. WE WILL SEE A WIND CONVERGENT LINE DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
COLLIDING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE RIVER. THESE CONVERGING
WINDS WILL HELP PROVIDE LIFT FOR RAIN AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE DRIER
OUT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS SO RAIN WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE GROUND. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR FRIDAY
EVENING WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED IN AND NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON SATURDAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
MOISTURE BACK TO THE EAST A LITTLE, BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY. THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO ON SATURDAY, THE DRIER
AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES YOU WILL SEE. HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR SUNDAY, WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF OUR USUAL SPRING TIME
PATTERN, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL END OUR RAIN CHANCES AND THE TROUGH WILL HELP
GIVE US SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER, WHICH IS NOT THE BEST
PLACE FOR STRONG WINDS, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
COULD GIVE US SOME BLOWING DUST. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL GIVE
US ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON. IF THE TROUGH SLOWS DOWN OR
SPEEDS UP BY 12 HOURS, WE COULD HAVE A SOME VERY STRONG WINDS, BUT
AS IT IS MIS-TIMED WE WILL LIKELY SEE JUST WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT,
WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON
TUESDAY.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW
DEGREES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
SKIES BEGINNING FEW100 SCT-BKN250 THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS
160-200 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. DEVELOPING SCT-BKN110 TOWERING CU THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS S NM AND W TX THIS EVENING.
SUDDEN GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22-02Z. LINGERING VCSH OVERNIGHT, WITH SKIES
SCT-BKN120 AND SURFACE WINDS 120-170 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WETTING
RAINS OVER BLACK RANGE AND LNF. SUDDEN, ERRATIC GUSTS NEAR
STORMS. GNF MAY STAY MOSTLY DRY AS RAIN CHANCES ARE FOCUSED
FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LNF AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. RAIN AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LIGHTNING STARTS.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGIN ON SUNDAY
AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH
10-20% WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE
MAY NEED RED FLAGS FOR MONDAY WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGEST THAT
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON ERCS AND UPCOMING RAIN AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 81 58 83 / 60 40 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 74 51 79 / 70 80 40 10
LAS CRUCES 53 79 49 79 / 50 30 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 53 78 51 79 / 60 60 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 40 55 39 56 / 80 70 30 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 79 51 78 / 30 30 10 0
SILVER CITY 47 73 44 70 / 10 10 10 10
DEMING 53 82 49 81 / 20 20 10 10
LORDSBURG 49 79 46 78 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 81 59 83 / 60 40 20 0
DELL CITY 55 77 51 82 / 60 70 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 59 83 55 87 / 60 70 30 10
LOMA LINDA 55 74 53 76 / 70 60 20 0
FABENS 58 83 57 85 / 60 50 20 0
SANTA TERESA 56 80 53 81 / 60 30 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 81 57 81 / 60 40 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 80 49 79 / 50 40 10 10
HATCH 53 83 50 82 / 40 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 56 85 54 83 / 20 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 55 78 51 79 / 70 60 20 0
MAYHILL 44 67 43 69 / 80 80 20 10
MESCALERO 43 67 42 67 / 70 80 30 10
TIMBERON 44 64 42 65 / 80 70 20 10
WINSTON 41 72 37 69 / 10 20 10 10
HILLSBORO 52 78 48 76 / 20 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 50 79 45 78 / 30 30 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 72 39 69 / 10 10 10 10
HURLEY 46 75 43 74 / 10 10 0 10
CLIFF 46 79 42 77 / 10 10 0 10
MULE CREEK 45 75 40 72 / 10 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 49 76 45 74 / 20 20 10 10
ANIMAS 50 81 47 79 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 49 80 48 78 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 52 80 49 78 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 74 47 72 / 10 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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