252
FXUS64 KEPZ 100447
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
947 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 944 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
- WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- MOST AREAS STAY DRY TUESDAY, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS, AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO.
- A SECOND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
AREAWIDE WITH SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
OUR NEXT/CURRENT WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE UPPER LOW OVER
PUERTO SAN CARLOS, ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA. IT IS TAPPING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/EASTERN PACIFIC, AND
SPINNING IT NORTH ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE, OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA,
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. WE ARE SEEING
INCREASING CLOUDS, WHICH ARE LOWERING AS THE FEATURE SLOWLY TRACK A
BIT TO THE NE. RADAR IS SHOWING AN NEWARD ADVANCING AREA OF SHOWERS,
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE MODEL
TRACKS OF THE LOW KEEP IT WELL SOUTH, AND OPEN IT UP INTO A TROUGH
OVER THE BIG BEND COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS. FOR OUR REGION, THAT MEANS
MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MAIN SWATH OF MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS AS IT PASSES TUESDAY TO OUR SOUTH. THUS WE LOOK TO KEEP
MOST OF OUR AREA DRY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION/STORMS BEING NEAR EL PASO, AND AREAS TO THE E AND SE,
MEANING SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY, MUCH OF EL PASO, AND ALL OF HUDSEPTH
COUNTIES HAVING RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY. EVERYWHERE ELSE,
DRY AND MILD, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE FAIR WEATHER DAYS, AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TX AND EXTENDS WEST OVER
OUR AREA. THIS WILL MEAN MILD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, FEW
CLOUDS, AND LIGHT WINDS.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE NEXT
LONG WAVE TROUGH PULLING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS, OFF THE SCAL
COAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, WHICH
PASSES IT'S DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN/HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING OUT AND CLEARING
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS
WITH BREEZY SW/W WINDS FRIDAY, TURNING NW EARLY SATURDAY. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY, BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WILL MAKE
FOR A COOLER DAY TO START THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE WILL BE BETWEEN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS MONDAY, AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN OUR GRADIENTS AND CAUSE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING, FOR
STRONGER SW WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 944 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT KTCS, KDMN,
AND KLRU. THOSE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
THERE PERIOD, WHILE KELP IS CLOSER TO THE AREA OF EXPECTED PCPN.
THUS, SKIES INCREASING IN CLOUDS, ESP. SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH NORTHERN
AREAS, HAVING FEWER CLOUDS, AND HIGHER CIGS. LOWER CLOUDS INVADING
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS OF PCPN LIKELY
STREAMING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS, WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS AT KELP AFT 19Z. EXPECT PROB 30 OF LOWER CIGS, RESTRICTED
VSBY, AND SHRA THERE, BUT FLIGHT CAT STAYING NEAR VFR TO ONLY MVFR.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED TSRA
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS TAMRA ALSO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS STARTING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SYSTEMS AND KEEP RH'S ABOVE 20% AND BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TUESDAY, BUT AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY. SOME
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000FT WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
NOT BE A A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WILL START TO BECOME A
CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 69 46 73 / 10 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 61 41 67 / 20 60 10 0
LAS CRUCES 44 67 42 69 / 0 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 41 67 41 70 / 0 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 48 33 51 / 0 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 42 70 45 69 / 0 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 41 66 41 64 / 0 10 0 10
DEMING 43 72 43 71 / 0 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 41 70 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 68 48 71 / 10 20 0 0
DELL CITY 45 64 39 68 / 10 40 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 69 45 74 / 20 50 10 0
LOMA LINDA 48 61 43 65 / 10 30 10 0
FABENS 50 69 45 74 / 10 30 10 0
SANTA TERESA 46 68 43 70 / 10 20 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 48 69 46 71 / 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 41 69 41 70 / 0 10 0 0
HATCH 41 72 42 72 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 72 46 71 / 10 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 44 66 42 69 / 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 39 60 34 64 / 0 10 10 0
MESCALERO 36 61 35 61 / 0 10 10 0
TIMBERON 39 56 37 58 / 0 20 10 0
WINSTON 32 64 34 64 / 0 10 10 0
HILLSBORO 43 69 43 69 / 0 10 10 0
SPACEPORT 38 69 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 66 38 64 / 0 10 0 10
HURLEY 38 69 40 66 / 0 10 0 0
CLIFF 37 72 40 71 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 38 69 41 67 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 44 68 43 66 / 0 10 10 10
ANIMAS 44 71 44 72 / 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 43 70 43 71 / 10 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 69 43 72 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 63 46 67 / 10 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page