932
FXUS64 KEPZ 292329
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
529 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW CHANCES IN AREA
MOUNTAINS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
UPPER HIGH FIXED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE WEEK-
LONG TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL AGAIN
FLIRT WITH THE TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK, GENERALLY IN THE 96-102 RANGE.
THIS IS 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN USUAL FOR THE END OF AUGUST. NOT
QUITE RECORD SETTING, BUT STILL SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.
DRIER TREND TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. UPPER HIGH HAS
FLATTENED AND BECOME MORE ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US,
CUTTING OFF MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN RESPONSE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 0.9-1.0" WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S. THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER SETUP WILL
GREATLY REDUCE STORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
(10-30% COVERAGE) SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE SEEN, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY.
UPPER HIGH FLATTENS AND BEGINS A PROGRESSION EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL FOCUS BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS SUNDAY/MONDAY. ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND WEST
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (GRANT AND HIDALGO COUNTIES FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA) WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
ADDED A 4-8 PM SUNDAY MENTION OF DUST FOR LORDSBURG AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR NEAR THE STATE LINE DUE TO SENSITIVITY. MOST OF THE RIO
GRANDE/TULAROSA BASINS LOOK TO BE DRY AND WARM.
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE THAT AT LEAST *MARGINAL*
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
OUR REGION WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FLOW. ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN
LESS BULLISH ON MOISTURE, KEEPING AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH FIXED
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN US. NBM LEANS HARD ON ECMWF LONG TERM,
SO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS (5-10%). I DO
THINK THOSE CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
EXPECTING MORE ISOLATED (HIT-AND-MISS, MOSTLY MISS) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES NEXT WEEK, INSTEAD OF THE DRY FORECAST
CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AM. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS
LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR KTCS AND KDMN WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN TAFS. SCATTERED TS DEVELOP OVER HIGH TERRAIN DURING
AFTERNOON AND W OF KDMN. KELP AND KLRU SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTFLOW
GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD, OTHERWISE WINDS AOB 10KTS
FROM S-SW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VERY ISOLATED (10-20% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
GILA/LINCOLN FORESTS THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING RISK IS LOW, BUT
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS AND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH. RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY THIS EVENING, LIKELY
BEFORE SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO FAIR
VENT RATES. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH GOOD
VENT RATES.ONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STORM CHANCES WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO GILA NF SUNDAY/MONDAY, AS
MOISTURE FOCUSES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MIN RH 20-30%
WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES (60-80%) THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. FAIR
TO GOOD MIDDAY VENT RATES.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED (20-40% COVERAGE)
STORM CHANCES. STORMS WILL BE HIT-AND-MISS IN NATURE, WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 100 74 100 / 0 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 97 67 96 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 70 99 70 98 / 0 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 99 72 99 / 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 53 75 54 75 / 20 20 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 97 72 96 / 10 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 66 91 63 88 / 10 20 20 30
DEMING 70 100 69 97 / 10 10 20 0
LORDSBURG 70 96 67 92 / 10 30 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 100 77 99 / 0 10 10 0
DELL CITY 70 100 70 100 / 0 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 104 73 103 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 69 93 68 92 / 0 10 10 0
FABENS 72 101 72 100 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 73 99 72 97 / 0 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 71 99 70 98 / 0 10 10 0
HATCH 72 102 71 101 / 0 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 74 100 72 98 / 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 70 98 70 97 / 10 10 10 0
MAYHILL 58 88 59 87 / 20 20 20 20
MESCALERO 57 86 57 86 / 20 10 10 30
TIMBERON 55 85 56 85 / 20 10 10 10
WINSTON 61 88 59 86 / 20 40 20 50
HILLSBORO 70 97 68 95 / 10 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 70 99 69 97 / 0 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 89 57 87 / 10 20 10 40
HURLEY 66 94 63 91 / 10 20 20 20
CLIFF 68 97 66 93 / 20 20 20 30
MULE CREEK 64 92 63 88 / 20 30 40 30
FAYWOOD 68 93 66 91 / 10 10 10 10
ANIMAS 70 96 68 91 / 10 30 40 30
HACHITA 70 96 67 92 / 10 20 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 95 66 91 / 10 30 30 50
CLOVERDALE 65 89 63 84 / 20 60 60 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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