462
FXUS64 KEPZ 181721
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1121 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
THIS WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY, WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- STORM CHANCES DECREASE NEXT WEEK, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND
LIMITED MOSTLY TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY. DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
AN UL LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE. 16Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1.2-1.5" OF PW OVER
THE CWA. THUS, WE WILL SEE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN. IT'S BEEN A LITTLE
DIFFICULT PINPOINTING WHO HAS THE HIGHEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING,
BUT THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SOME INSTANCES OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. WITH THE UL LOW ONLY MAKING SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESS TODAY
AND TOMORROW, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, THE LOW WILL HAVE GREATLY WEAKENED WITH
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA WITH AREAS WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE FAVORED FOR STORMS.
UL HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER OK BY WEDNESDAY, PUSHING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY
WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL ALSO WARM UP WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS
BACK ABOVE 100 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN WITH BASES AS LOW
AS 090, LOWER IN TSRA. ADDITIONAL TSRA/SHRA IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WE WILL REMAIN IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY WITH DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR BURN SCARS. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN RH
VALUES IN THE MID 30S. BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, HOTTER
AND DRIER AIR WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH POOR TO FAIR VENTING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 91 71 90 / 70 40 70 60
SIERRA BLANCA 63 85 62 84 / 60 70 50 80
LAS CRUCES 65 89 65 88 / 40 50 50 50
ALAMOGORDO 66 87 66 87 / 50 60 50 80
CLOUDCROFT 50 67 50 67 / 50 80 50 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 90 69 90 / 20 40 30 30
SILVER CITY 59 83 60 82 / 30 70 40 90
DEMING 65 94 65 92 / 30 50 40 70
LORDSBURG 64 89 66 89 / 20 30 40 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 90 72 88 / 70 40 70 60
DELL CITY 66 89 66 89 / 60 60 50 60
FORT HANCOCK 70 91 70 90 / 70 60 60 70
LOMA LINDA 64 83 64 82 / 60 60 70 70
FABENS 69 92 69 90 / 70 50 70 60
SANTA TERESA 68 89 68 87 / 70 40 60 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 90 71 89 / 50 50 60 60
JORNADA RANGE 66 90 66 89 / 30 50 40 50
HATCH 67 93 67 92 / 30 50 30 60
COLUMBUS 70 93 70 91 / 40 40 70 70
OROGRANDE 65 87 66 86 / 50 50 50 60
MAYHILL 54 77 54 78 / 50 80 40 80
MESCALERO 54 78 54 78 / 50 80 40 90
TIMBERON 51 74 51 75 / 50 80 50 90
WINSTON 57 82 58 82 / 20 70 30 70
HILLSBORO 64 88 65 88 / 20 60 30 60
SPACEPORT 64 90 64 89 / 30 50 40 50
LAKE ROBERTS 55 84 55 84 / 30 80 40 90
HURLEY 60 86 61 85 / 20 60 30 90
CLIFF 62 89 63 88 / 30 70 40 90
MULE CREEK 60 85 61 85 / 40 70 40 90
FAYWOOD 62 86 63 85 / 20 60 30 80
ANIMAS 65 89 66 88 / 20 30 40 60
HACHITA 63 89 64 88 / 20 30 60 70
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 88 66 87 / 20 50 70 70
CLOVERDALE 62 83 63 82 / 20 40 60 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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