732
FXUS64 KEPZ 102330
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A FEW RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY/TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
- WARM OCTOBER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY LATE
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS MAKING AN APPROACH TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/BAJA TODAY, AIDED BY A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALOFT MERGING
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ACCELERATING IT TO THE NORTHEAST. LOCALLY,
SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS PULLING UP MOISTURE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO JUMP TO AROUND 1.0" BY
MID-AFTERNOON. WEAKLY UNSTABLE PROFILE COMBINED WITH STRONGER
FORCING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. STORMS WILL BE WEAK, BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HRRR HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS EL
PASO AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM.
INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY COMPARED TO BLENDED GUIDANCE. RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75-KNOT 500MB JET STREAK WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND DCAPE 1000-1200 J/KG.
WARM NOSE ALOFT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL HINDER STORM COVERAGE, BUT
I DO THINK THERE'S ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORM CHANCES. HRRR ALSO
SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS NEARLY
AREA-WIDE. THIS WILL BE WORTH MONITORING FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
RISK.
REMNANTS OF SIMON BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
GETTING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL MISS US
TO THE EAST. TOKEN POPS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY, BUT
CHANCES FOR DRY WEATHER ARE HIGHER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
DRY AIR WITHIN THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC LOW PROGRESSING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL FLUSH OUT MOISTURE LOCALLY AND LEAD TO A
STREAK OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AHEAD. PATTERN IS FAVORABLE TO EXPECT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS
STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PACIFIC LOW. ECMWF DETACHES IT
FROM THE POLAR JET AND RETROGRADES IT OVER THE AREA, GFS
PROGRESSES IT WITHIN A STRONGER JET FLOW. LEANING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION, THE DRIER AND COOLER SOLUTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE SKIES WITH BASES
AS LOW AS 080. SCT SHRA AND ISO TSRA IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN MEX
THIS EVENING, MOVING NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THESE MAY IMPACT TAF
SITES THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 06Z. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH FAVORING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SW
(200-230) WITH GUSTS UP TO 25. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO
OCCUR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER DUE TO RECENT WETNESS AND ERCS SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING FOR BOTH GILA
AND LINCOLN NF. BREEZY SSW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH LEADING TO VERY GOOD
VENT RATES ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER LINCOLN NF.
BREEZY SW FLOW CONTINUES, 15 TO 20 MPH AND VERY GOOD VENT RATES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH WINDS
WEAKENING. WIND SHIFTS DUE TO COLD FRONT INTRUSIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 89 66 86 / 10 10 40 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 87 63 86 / 0 0 40 0
LAS CRUCES 62 85 61 82 / 20 40 40 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 86 63 83 / 0 10 50 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 64 46 61 / 0 10 40 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 83 58 80 / 20 30 30 0
SILVER CITY 56 75 53 72 / 30 60 30 30
DEMING 61 85 58 81 / 20 30 20 0
LORDSBURG 61 82 57 79 / 20 30 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 88 68 85 / 10 10 40 0
DELL CITY 63 90 64 88 / 0 0 40 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 95 68 92 / 0 10 40 0
LOMA LINDA 62 82 61 79 / 0 10 40 0
FABENS 67 92 67 89 / 0 10 50 0
SANTA TERESA 65 87 64 84 / 10 20 40 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 88 65 85 / 10 20 40 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 86 61 82 / 20 30 40 0
HATCH 62 88 61 84 / 20 40 30 0
COLUMBUS 64 88 62 84 / 20 30 20 0
OROGRANDE 63 86 62 83 / 10 10 30 0
MAYHILL 53 76 53 75 / 0 10 40 0
MESCALERO 53 75 51 72 / 0 10 50 0
TIMBERON 51 73 51 70 / 0 20 60 0
WINSTON 51 76 50 74 / 20 40 20 10
HILLSBORO 59 82 57 79 / 30 40 20 10
SPACEPORT 59 84 58 81 / 20 30 40 0
LAKE ROBERTS 51 73 49 70 / 40 70 50 30
HURLEY 57 79 53 75 / 30 50 20 20
CLIFF 60 81 57 77 / 30 70 60 40
MULE CREEK 56 76 53 72 / 40 90 70 50
FAYWOOD 59 79 55 75 / 30 50 20 10
ANIMAS 62 83 59 80 / 20 30 10 20
HACHITA 60 83 58 80 / 20 30 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 83 58 81 / 20 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 58 76 56 73 / 20 30 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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