454
FXUS64 KEPZ 021126
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- DAILY MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS OVER THE
AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOCATIONS BORDERING ARIZONA.
- REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE
TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPPER HIGH STAYS OVER ARIZONA HEADING INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BROADENS AND FLATTENS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR
US IS A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHERE MANY
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS DURING THIS TIME.
CONTINUED MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY
FOCUS OVER THE ARE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA
NEARING ARIZONA. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
MOVE OVER NEVADA AND AWAY FROM US TO GIVE US *SOME* RELIEF, BUT NOT
MUCH. MAYBE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES SHAVED OFF FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAYS HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MORE OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN150 BCMG SKC-FEW110 THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AOB 10 KTS, FAVORING THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ISO TO SCT TSRA IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF ANY TAF SITE.
CHANCES FOR IMPACTS, EXCEPT FOR OUTFLOWS, ARE 10-20% OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE "COOLEST" DAY OF THE WEEK AHEAD THOUGH HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE LOWLANDS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE GILA WILDERNESS WITH ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS AND THE
SACRAMENTO / CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH GOOD VENT
RATE CATEGORIES. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING AFTERNOON RH VALUES. THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 102 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 97 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 70 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 100 75 102 / 0 10 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 53 77 56 79 / 0 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 101 73 101 / 10 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 66 93 65 93 / 30 40 20 50
DEMING 70 101 72 102 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 72 99 70 99 / 30 30 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 101 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 76 104 76 107 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 94 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 74 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 101 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 72 104 73 105 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 102 75 103 / 0 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 70 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 59 89 61 89 / 0 20 10 20
MESCALERO 59 89 62 90 / 0 20 0 20
TIMBERON 56 86 58 88 / 0 20 0 10
WINSTON 61 93 63 93 / 20 30 10 20
HILLSBORO 68 99 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 70 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 60 93 60 94 / 20 50 20 60
HURLEY 67 96 66 96 / 20 30 20 30
CLIFF 67 100 67 100 / 30 40 30 40
MULE CREEK 66 96 65 95 / 30 50 20 50
FAYWOOD 68 96 68 97 / 20 20 10 20
ANIMAS 72 100 71 99 / 30 30 40 10
HACHITA 70 98 70 99 / 20 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 98 70 99 / 10 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 67 92 66 92 / 20 30 40 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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