701
FXUS64 KEPZ 081141
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
441 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
- COOLER, BLUSTERY WEATHER TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5,000 FEET, INCLUDING THE GILA WILDERNESS AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOWER TWENTIES FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS THE AXIS OF A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SWINGING ITS WAY INTO NM. PRECIP HAS EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA, WITH A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCALES
SEEING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SEEPS ITS WAY INTO
THE BORDERLAND. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS NM
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE OVERARCHING FLOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
ELABORATED ON IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIP DIMINISHING AROUND 0300 MDT, SAVE FOR ACTIVITY IN THE SACS.
THE TIGHTENING H5 PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONGSIDE PERSISTENT LEE-
SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LEND TO STRENGTHENING WINDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING THURSDAY. THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND ITS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND GIVEN THE WINDS, BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME A
HAZARD.
AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE MORNING SWOOPS UP INTO THE GREAT PLAINS,
ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES IN HOT ON ITS HEELS. THE BETTER MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL NM
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM HAS SUPERIOR DYNAMICS, PAINTING A SWATCH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
TOWARD A MORE SQUALL-LIKE FEATURE FORMING ACROSS THE GILA AND
SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD DELIVER A GUSTY
RAIN-SNOW MIX TO THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN NM, WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN CLOSER TO 5000'. THE MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD DELIVER GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS TOMORROW EVENING,
PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF GRANT CO. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF FRIDAY, EXITING THE AREA COMPLETELY BY THE EVENING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THESE SISTER
SYSTEMS. WHILE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP MINTS A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE AND POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE DIGITS FOR THE GILA AND SACS. EVEN
LOWLAND ZONES WILL BE PARTY TO BRISK CHILLS IN THE 20S, INCLUDING
THE ELP AND LRU METROS. WINDS SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
MORE ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
STORE FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES, WITH MINTS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
A SLOW REBOUND WILL BE IN STORE MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
STRONG WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WINTER
STORM. SKIES SCT-BKN040 THIS MORNING, CLEARING TO FEW050 BY THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHRASN AFTER 00Z,
MOSTLY OVER W AND CENTRAL NM. SURFACE WINDS 250-270 AT 15-25 KNOTS
TODAY, PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS MID-AFTERNOON. SURFACE
VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNLIMITED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO ONGOING WINTER WEATHER AND HIGH
HUMIDITY. MIN RH 50-70% WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7,000 FEET. BLUSTERY WINDS TODAY OUT OF THE WEST 20 TO 30
MPH, LEADING TO GOOD VENTILATION.
CONDITIONS BECOMING DRY AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL. MUCH COLDER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS GILA AND LINCOLN FORESTS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN POOR VENTILATION. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-
JANUARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 53 28 51 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 50 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 48 22 46 / 50 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 29 49 19 46 / 60 20 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 16 26 10 30 / 60 30 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 46 23 46 / 50 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 26 40 18 44 / 90 10 0 0
DEMING 32 50 20 49 / 60 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 45 20 46 / 90 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 38 52 28 50 / 30 0 0 0
DELL CITY 34 54 24 49 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 56 26 52 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 32 46 28 44 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 36 54 28 52 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 34 51 25 48 / 30 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 36 52 25 49 / 40 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 29 50 19 48 / 50 10 0 0
HATCH 31 53 19 50 / 50 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 35 51 24 49 / 60 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 32 51 23 46 / 40 10 0 0
MAYHILL 21 39 12 44 / 40 20 10 0
MESCALERO 19 37 10 41 / 60 30 20 0
TIMBERON 17 36 12 39 / 40 20 10 0
WINSTON 20 39 8 43 / 60 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 29 48 22 46 / 60 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 25 49 19 48 / 40 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 21 38 8 44 / 90 20 0 0
HURLEY 26 43 17 45 / 90 10 0 0
CLIFF 26 47 13 50 / 90 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 42 12 46 / 90 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 29 44 23 45 / 70 10 0 0
ANIMAS 28 47 22 47 / 80 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 46 22 46 / 80 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 29 49 21 47 / 60 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 29 43 22 42 / 80 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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