363
FXUS64 KEPZ 270434
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1034 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
- THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE BENIGN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE
SIT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM, CONDITIONS CONTINUE VERY DRY, WINDS LIGHTER,
BUT STILL BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
OUR SPRING WIND MAKER (UL TROUGH) IS EXITING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS
AT MY TYPING THOUGH PLENTY OF JET ENERGY IS TRAILING BEHIND. WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY FOR MAINLY THE EAST SLOPE AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE
UPPER JET WILL REMAIN OVER NM FOR MONDAY AS WELL, SO IT WILL BE
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT NEARLY LIKE TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST NBM AND 00Z HRRR ARE A
LITTLE UNDER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, BUT I WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS
SEE IF THAT DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS CONTINUES.
TUESDAY WILL SEE EVEN LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY AS THE JET ALOFT
WEAKENS WITH BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WEST TX. WINDS DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE TRANSLATES THROUGH THE
DESERT SW.
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS A STRUGGLE. BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO SHOW A CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF THE SOCAL/ BAJA COAST.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE ALIGNED IN THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW AS
IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DESERT SW, BUT THERE STILL RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES. GFS IS ALSO A LITTLE QUICKER WITH PRECIP
ARRIVAL ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, VERY SLOWLY, THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
FINALLY EXITING SOMETIME SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE WITH LOWEST POPS SOUTH AND HIGHEST
NORTH. THE NBM ENDS POPS EARLY SATURDAY, BUT THE 12Z EURO KEEPS
PRECIP THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE
DRY SLOT, WHICH MAY KEEP PLACES LIKE EL PASO RAIN-FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ELP ALONG WITH BLDU. VIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FOR MONDAY, WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST (240-270) BENEATH SKC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MIN RH
VALUES TODAY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AREAWIDE. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-40 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 50-60
MPH. SMOKE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT EACH AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WINDS WITH CRITICAL AFTERNOON RH
VALUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER, MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
COMING INTO MORE AND MORE AGREEMENT, WITH REGARD TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BRINGING IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW TO MEDIUM AS DETAILS NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 84 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 79 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 56 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 69 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 45 81 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 41 77 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 82 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 89 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 81 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 79 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 81 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 85 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 79 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 38 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 39 65 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 33 70 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 41 79 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 33 69 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 37 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 37 76 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 35 71 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 73 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 42 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 81 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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