862
FXUS64 KEPZ 171703
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1103 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
- BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, MAINLY RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS BRINGING TWO TROUGHS THROUGH
WITH IT. LEAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO SE ARIZONA
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BUMP UP TO BREEZY WINDS.
VERY FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SECOND
TROUGH NOW INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND WILL BE PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT NOW INTO
FAR NW NEW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AND THEN BACK
DOWN AGAIN JUST INTO NE NEW MEXICO. PACIFIC PORTION OF THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS TO
THE NORTH. SOME BRIEF GUSTY NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
SIERRA LAKES REGION AND TULAROSA BASIN. CONTINENTAL PORTION OF THE
FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW SOME BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG WEST SLOPES OF TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
NEXT PACIFIC LOW WILL BE MAIN DRIVER FOR WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW WILL PUSH A VORT CENTER OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL BACKING FLOW WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW SOME GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE UP THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE LINGERS INTO MONDAY
SO FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE EAST.
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW (NEARING THE NOCAL
COAST) WILL FINALLY FLUSH THE MOISTURE OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS AND
BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. WEDNESDAY, AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LOOK LIKE THE WINDIEST DAYS NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO ELEVATE MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
INCREASING TO WEST 13-18G30 KNOTS BY 20Z, AND DIMINISHING TO
NORTHWEST AOB 8 KNOTS AFTER 02Z. WINDS THEN INCREASING TO EAST 10-
15G25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, WITH RED FLAG WARNING OUT UNTIL 8 PM THIS
EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT TO NORTH AND THEN TO
EAST SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING. CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, MAINLY RG VALLEY EAST AS QUICK, BRIEF MOISTURE INTRUSION
OCCURS. THEN BACK TO DRY, BREEZY AFTERNOONS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE
CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
MIN RHS: LOWLANDS 10-15% TODAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 15-30%
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOWERING AGAIN FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
MOUNTAINS 13-23% TODAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 25-40% SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THEN LOWERING AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
VENT RATES EXCELLENT TODAY, THEN GOOD-VERY GOOD SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 77 50 73 / 0 0 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA 48 69 44 67 / 0 0 0 30
LAS CRUCES 45 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 41 74 41 73 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 28 53 28 53 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 40 71 42 66 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 46 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 41 77 49 71 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 75 53 72 / 0 0 0 20
DELL CITY 44 72 41 70 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 53 79 51 74 / 0 0 0 30
LOMA LINDA 45 68 44 65 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 51 77 51 74 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 47 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 75 49 73 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 41 75 43 72 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 43 78 44 75 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 49 79 52 73 / 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 43 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 30 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 31 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 33 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 30 66 33 65 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 41 72 43 70 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 40 74 40 72 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 30 72 33 68 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 38 72 41 68 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 32 78 36 75 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 28 75 33 72 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 41 72 42 67 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 44 77 49 73 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 43 76 48 71 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 77 49 73 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 46 74 49 70 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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