538
FXUS64 KEPZ 050416
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1016 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1013 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.
- WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE GILA REGION AND
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA BORDER.
- BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS ON THE
LORDSBURG PLAYA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM SOCAL AND SOUTHERN NV TO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MAKING A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS. LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STAY ANCHORED IN THAT SAME AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH STORM COVERAGE
FAVORING THE GILA REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN NM BORDERING AZ. TOMORROW
AND THURSDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE
ON THE LORDSBURG PLAYA. STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, DRIER AIR LOOKS TO GET
ENTRAINED INTO THE AREA LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GILA REGION HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, HIGHS CONTINUE TO STAY ABOVE AVERAGE EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE STILL LOOKING
QUITE HOT. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
VALLEY IN SOUTHERN EL PASO AND A SMALL PORTION OF HUDSPETH COUNTY
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 105 TO 106F. HEAT ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY FOR THIS SAME AREA. ELSEWHERE,
WE CAN EXPECT CONTINUED TRIPLE DIGITS AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. AREA MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID-70S TO LOW 90S DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ONGOING LATE TONIGHT BUT
LOOKS LIKE EVERYTHING ON THE DOWN-TREND FOR THE NIGHT. KTCS AND KDMN
MAY SEE A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF CHANCES FOR A STORM NEARBY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIND SHIFTS AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS.
OTHERWISE, ONCE THIS FIZZLES OUT THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WILL
FEATURE CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOCUSING MOSTLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NM BUT KDMN AND
KTCS HAS THE BEST SHOT AGAIN TO SEE A STORM, LESSER CONFIDENCE
WITH KLRU AND KELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
OUR MOIST MONSOON SEASON HAS BEEN STRUGGLING AND THIS WEEK WON'T
BE MUCH DIFFERENT. MIN RH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS TO THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE GILA
REGION. BY THURSDAY WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
TO GIVE THE WHOLE REGION AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT
THEN DRIER AIR RETURNS AND OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL
AGAIN BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE GILA REGION. EACH AFTERNOON, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OUR WINDS AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 102 76 102 / 0 0 10 30
SIERRA BLANCA 67 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 70 100 71 100 / 10 10 10 40
ALAMOGORDO 71 100 72 100 / 10 20 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 54 77 54 77 / 10 30 30 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 101 72 100 / 30 30 20 20
SILVER CITY 64 94 64 94 / 30 30 20 50
DEMING 69 101 71 102 / 10 20 20 40
LORDSBURG 68 98 70 99 / 30 20 30 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 102 78 102 / 0 0 10 30
DELL CITY 70 101 73 101 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 74 105 76 105 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 69 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 73 102 75 103 / 0 0 10 20
SANTA TERESA 73 100 75 100 / 10 0 10 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 101 77 101 / 0 10 10 40
JORNADA RANGE 71 101 73 100 / 10 20 20 40
HATCH 72 104 73 104 / 20 20 20 40
COLUMBUS 73 101 75 102 / 20 0 20 40
OROGRANDE 70 100 72 100 / 0 0 10 30
MAYHILL 59 88 60 88 / 0 20 20 40
MESCALERO 59 89 60 89 / 10 30 30 70
TIMBERON 57 86 58 86 / 0 20 20 30
WINSTON 63 92 62 92 / 40 30 20 40
HILLSBORO 69 99 70 98 / 30 30 20 30
SPACEPORT 70 100 71 100 / 20 20 20 30
LAKE ROBERTS 59 93 59 93 / 40 60 20 70
HURLEY 65 96 66 97 / 30 20 20 40
CLIFF 67 100 67 100 / 20 40 20 60
MULE CREEK 65 95 65 95 / 20 20 20 50
FAYWOOD 67 96 68 96 / 30 20 20 30
ANIMAS 68 99 70 100 / 40 30 40 40
HACHITA 67 98 69 99 / 30 20 30 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 97 69 98 / 60 20 30 40
CLOVERDALE 63 90 65 93 / 70 40 50 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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