911
FXUS64 KEPZ 060443
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1043 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- ON MONDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN MOUNTAIN AREAS STARTING
TUESDAY PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE LOWLANDS WILL ALSO
SEE ISOLATED STORMS EACH DAY AS OUTFLOW WINDS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. AREA'S WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL SEE THE BETTER
STORM COVERAGE.
- BY WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE LOWLANDS WITH 100-105 DEGREES COMMON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED OVER NEW
MEXICO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT AT THE SURFACE WE WILL STILL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORM FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINGS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL DRIFT OFF TO OUR WEST AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL
HELP DRAW DOWN SOME DRIER FROM THE NORTH. AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN WE WILL SEE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB FIVE TO SEVEN DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS WILL GIVE MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEVERAL DAYS
OF TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. JUST HOW FAR
NORTH WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE WILL PUSH LARGE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOO FAR
SOUTH OF OUR AREA, TO BE OF MUCH GOOD. BUT IF THE RIDGE CENTERS
ITSELF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH, THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
SHIFTED NORTH AND WE COULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DECENT MOISTURE. BOTH
OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GOOD
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, NOT THIS WEEK, BUT NEXT WEEK AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS FINALLY ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO TO SUM
THINGS UP, CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN
HOTTER WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK AND THEN
WE WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT NEXT WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE
FOR RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING AND THE WINDS ARE SLOWING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
ANY SPECIFIC AIRPORT WILL BE IMPACTED, SO FOR NOW I HAVEN'T
MENTIONED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE TAF'S, BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. EVEN WITHOUT THE THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS, WE WILL SEE LOW END WIND GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IF THE THUNDERSTORMS DON'T IMPACT THE AIRPORTS, THOSE LOW END
WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET. OUR CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WE WILL HAVE UNLIMITED
CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING, BEFORE THE MID AND HIGH CEILINGS RETURN
IN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
IN GENERAL, FAIRLY PERSISTENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION NOW WILL MOVE WEST THEN
UP INTO CO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
AROUND THE AREA TO GET DAILY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN/ISOLATED LOWLAND
STORMS GOING. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS A TYPICAL EARLY/MID
JULY PATTERN TYPICALLY BRINGS, BUT MIN RH'S WILL STAY AT LEAST IN
THE TEENS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 15-30% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY BUT WARM TO ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 99 76 100 / 10 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 94 67 95 / 10 30 10 0
LAS CRUCES 69 97 68 97 / 30 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 96 69 96 / 20 30 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 51 73 52 73 / 20 60 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 96 70 97 / 10 20 10 20
SILVER CITY 67 91 64 91 / 10 60 20 50
DEMING 69 100 67 100 / 30 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 72 98 69 98 / 10 30 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 98 76 98 / 10 20 10 0
DELL CITY 69 97 69 98 / 10 20 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 100 74 101 / 10 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 68 91 69 92 / 10 30 10 0
FABENS 74 100 74 100 / 10 20 10 0
SANTA TERESA 73 97 72 97 / 10 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 97 76 98 / 20 30 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 69 96 69 97 / 30 20 20 10
HATCH 70 100 69 100 / 30 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 75 100 73 100 / 20 10 40 0
OROGRANDE 69 95 68 96 / 20 20 10 10
MAYHILL 55 84 57 84 / 10 60 10 40
MESCALERO 55 84 55 84 / 20 60 10 50
TIMBERON 53 81 54 81 / 20 60 10 30
WINSTON 61 88 59 88 / 10 60 20 50
HILLSBORO 68 94 67 94 / 30 40 10 30
SPACEPORT 67 96 66 96 / 20 30 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 60 92 58 91 / 10 80 10 70
HURLEY 66 94 63 94 / 20 50 20 30
CLIFF 68 98 64 97 / 10 60 20 50
MULE CREEK 66 94 62 94 / 10 60 20 60
FAYWOOD 67 92 65 93 / 20 40 10 30
ANIMAS 72 99 69 99 / 10 20 30 10
HACHITA 70 97 68 97 / 10 20 30 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 72 99 69 98 / 10 10 50 10
CLOVERDALE 69 94 66 93 / 10 20 40 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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