453
FXUS64 KEPZ 141117
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
517 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 435 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AGAIN TUESDAY, WITH AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY BLOWING DUST. LIGHTER WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST TO THE REGION ON MONDAY, WILL BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY, SO WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PATCH BLOWING DUST. THE WINDS
MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WE SAW ON MONDAY, BUT NOT BY
MUCH. ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO WE WILL SEE LESS
WINDS BUT WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE REGION AND THAT WILL MEAN MORE WINDS. WINDS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS (30 TO 40 MPH), BUT THE
GUSTY WINDS COULD GIVE US MORE PATCHY BLOWING DUST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON SATURDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RUN 2 TO 4
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THEN FOR SUNDAY, THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
HELP USHER IN SOME MOISTURE SO WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RUN 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AT 18-23 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 28-33 KNOTS. AN AWW IS IN EFFECT FOR KELP FROM 20Z TO 04Z
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING, SLOWLY
DECREASING AFTER 03Z. WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST IS NOT LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF VIS DROPPING
TO 5 SM WILL BE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NO MENTION IN TAF.
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BKN-OVC AT 15-20 KFT, BECOMING
SCT-BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SKC TO FEW THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
FOR TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL OVERLAY DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. DECENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE TUESDAY PERIOD. THAT SAID, MIN RH
VALUES WILL 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE, 15 TO 25-PLUS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, TRENDING A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING
WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT SMOKE VENTILATION RATES. ELEVATED TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE VENTILATION RATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 77 51 84 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 75 46 81 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 74 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 43 73 44 79 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 52 34 57 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 67 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 41 77 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 38 73 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 77 52 82 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 47 78 41 84 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 82 48 88 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 48 70 48 76 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 51 80 47 86 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 76 45 81 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 75 51 81 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 40 75 42 80 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 40 78 41 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 78 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 44 74 44 79 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 37 65 37 70 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 33 62 36 67 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 35 60 38 66 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 30 68 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 41 73 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 38 75 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 68 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 35 70 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 34 74 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 34 71 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 38 70 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 40 75 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 40 74 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 76 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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