807
FXUS64 KEPZ 130542
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1042 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
- PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE ON
FRIDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A SERIES A
WINDY DAYS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
..TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 8:00PM SHOWS THE WELL ADVERTISED
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE BAJA CA COAST.
DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION, NOTED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS BLANKETING THE
SKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME, SAID UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, PROMOTING FURTHER ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE. OVERCAST SKIES WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CA AND SONORA, BEFORE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/SOUTHERN NM DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING PVA AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL INDUCE SCATTERED TO POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME, AREAS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. TOTAL RAIN QPF IS 0.10-0.25" FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS
THE DESERT LOWLANDS, LEADING TO VERY LITTLE TO LOW IMPACTS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 8500-9000 FT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY FALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INTRUDES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. AS COLD AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE.
THAT SAID, ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8500-9000 FT COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE A LESS
THAN 10% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
8500FT.
..SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST SETTLING IN ACROSS
THE AREA IN IT'S WAKE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ZERO BY MID-
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY, WITH FAIR, DRY, AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID
FEBRUARY. RIDGE AXIS WITH INCREASING SW FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY, PROMOTING TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
..NEXT WEEK
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE THE START OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING
UP ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. CONSISTENT TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS MOVE
ONSHORE. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS, WITH FAIRLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SPECIFIC STORM TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTH OVER
NORTHERN AZ/NM AND SOUTHERN UT/CO. THE FIRST SPOKE OF ENERGY
(SHORTWAVE TROUGH) WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. CORRESPONDING LEE-SIDE SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA.
THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME , GIVING THE AREA ANOTHER SHOT OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES. AS OF NOW, EACH SYSTEM
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY, OFFERING LITTLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES BKN-OVC AT 15-20
KFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB
THROUGH MID MORNING.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD -RS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PROB30S MENTIONED IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BECOME SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT 8-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-23 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. MIN RH 40-60%. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH ON FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. GOOD
VENTILATION BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES. NEW PRECIPITATION
TOTALS 0.25-0.50" FOR THE MOUNTAIN FORESTS, WITH SNOW LIMITED
MOSTLY TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8,000 FEET. LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THIS EXPECTED WETTING.
THE START OF THE SPRING WINDY SEASON LOOKS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION
AND TRANSPORT CONSISTENTLY TO THE ENE. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPS TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND FORESTS QUICKLY
DRY, INCREASING ERCS IN THE COMING WEEKS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 69 46 67 / 0 50 60 10
SIERRA BLANCA 50 69 41 61 / 0 40 70 30
LAS CRUCES 48 66 40 65 / 0 40 40 10
ALAMOGORDO 47 67 39 64 / 0 50 40 10
CLOUDCROFT 36 49 28 41 / 0 50 50 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 67 41 67 / 0 30 50 0
SILVER CITY 45 59 36 58 / 10 70 60 10
DEMING 48 68 41 67 / 0 50 60 10
LORDSBURG 48 64 40 62 / 10 60 60 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 67 46 67 / 0 50 50 10
DELL CITY 46 70 41 66 / 0 50 50 10
FORT HANCOCK 53 75 44 69 / 0 50 60 20
LOMA LINDA 52 63 41 60 / 0 50 60 10
FABENS 52 72 44 69 / 0 50 60 10
SANTA TERESA 50 66 43 66 / 0 40 50 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 68 44 67 / 0 40 40 10
JORNADA RANGE 47 67 39 67 / 0 40 40 10
HATCH 46 70 41 70 / 10 40 40 10
COLUMBUS 50 68 44 66 / 0 40 60 10
OROGRANDE 49 67 40 65 / 0 50 50 10
MAYHILL 40 61 33 55 / 0 50 40 10
MESCALERO 37 60 30 53 / 0 50 50 20
TIMBERON 42 57 33 51 / 0 60 50 10
WINSTON 37 59 30 59 / 0 50 50 0
HILLSBORO 46 66 38 66 / 0 50 50 10
SPACEPORT 45 67 37 67 / 0 30 40 10
LAKE ROBERTS 41 58 33 59 / 10 70 60 10
HURLEY 44 62 35 61 / 10 60 60 10
CLIFF 44 64 35 65 / 10 70 60 10
MULE CREEK 43 58 34 60 / 10 80 70 10
FAYWOOD 47 62 38 63 / 10 60 50 10
ANIMAS 49 65 41 63 / 0 50 80 10
HACHITA 48 65 40 63 / 0 40 70 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 65 39 64 / 0 40 70 0
CLOVERDALE 48 59 39 57 / 0 50 80 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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