439
FXUS64 KEPZ 221744
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1144 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- OUR HISTORIC MARCH HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TODAY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S. WE WILL LIKELY SET DAILY AND MONTHLY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MARGINALLY BREEZY WINDS, HOT TEMPERATURES, CRITICAL DRYNESS,
AND DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS.
- SOME MINOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TOMORROW AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF BACKDOOR COOL FRONTS MOVE IN. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE DIP IN TEMPERATURES, AND SMALL GAINS IN MOISTURE,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND RH WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW THOSE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN AZ, THE BORDERLAND, AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. MANY LOCATIONS ARE LOOKING AT BREAKING THE DAILY AND MONTHLY
RECORD TODAY. MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL REACH INTO THE 90S WITH
EL PASO AND THE LOWER VALLEY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-23 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
SOME SHORT-LIVED RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY WITH THE FRONT. GENERALLY EXPECTING 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH OR SO. WEST FACING SLOPES WILL SEE THE GUSTIEST CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE "COOLER" BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 5-15 DEGREES (COOLER EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE, WARMER WEST OF THE RIVER). HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO GET MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE SOCAL, SOUTHERN AZ, AND NORTHERN
MEXICO AGAIN TUESDAY WHICH WILL RETURN THE WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD AND IS OVERHEAD THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. MINOR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT A COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH IN LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
EAST WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. TODAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHIFTING WINDS EASTERLY. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY WITH THE FRONT, GENERALLY 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH WEST FACING SLOPES. A 5-15 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW END AFTERNOON BREEZES EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
MPH. BREEZIER AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-15
MPH. THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN THE GILA REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY.
MIN RH VALUES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND MUCH OF HUDSPETH
COUNTY (EXCLUDING THE LOWER VALLEY) WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS WITH MIN RHS OF 17-20%. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CRITICAL MIN
RHS TOMORROW. THE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN SINGLE
DIGIT LOWLAND MIN RHS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EVEN THE GILA REGION AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL SEE SINGLE DIGIT MIN RHS OF 7-9%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 85 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 80 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 51 83 51 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 83 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 64 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 85 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 80 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 86 50 93 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 52 86 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 57 84 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 80 48 93 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 88 53 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 78 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 87 54 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 83 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 85 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 84 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 88 48 94 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 86 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 82 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 37 77 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 71 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 41 80 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 51 84 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 84 48 91 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 80 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 48 82 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 87 46 90 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 52 83 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 81 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 88 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 52 86 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 88 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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