301
FXUS64 KEPZ 031700
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1100 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- COOL OCTOBER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WARMING A BIT
THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EACH AFTERNOON. BREEZY EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK AFTER SEPTEMBER'S HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER LOCALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH SPANNING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN EAST FLOW AND A SUBTLE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF OCTOBER, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW-END BREEZY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
THE WEEK AHEAD IS A BIT MESSY TO FORECAST, GIVEN WEAK FORCING
ALOFT AND FEW DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES. UPPER HIGH DRIFTS EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY-THURSDAY, WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES, PUTTING US RIGHT NEAR NORMAL. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS
RESOLVE A DEVELOPING LOW OVER TEXAS MIDWEEK, CREATING A WEAK REX
BLOCK PATTERN. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH, AND WE'LL
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THAT MOISTURE CAN DRIFT THIS FAR NORTH.
RIGHT NOW, THE ANSWER IS NO AND THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW FLUSHES ALL THIS
MOISTURE OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKIES FEW-SCT050 THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING SKC AFTER 00Z. SURFACE WINDS 080-120 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A
BIT BREEZIER ON SUNDAY, STILL OUT OF THE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND HIGH FUEL MOISTURE. ERC
ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER AHEAD.
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO GOOD MIDDAY VENT
RATES. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE ON MONDAY, CONTINUING OUT OF THE EAST.
LIGHT FLOW AND POOR VENT RATES ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 72 56 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 75 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 75 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 56 41 57 / 10 10 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 75 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 70 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 76 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 75 56 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 57 78 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 55 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 71 54 70 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 57 80 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 77 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 77 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 79 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 56 78 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 76 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 65 46 67 / 0 10 20 0
MESCALERO 45 67 45 68 / 0 10 10 0
TIMBERON 44 63 44 63 / 0 10 10 0
WINSTON 46 68 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 74 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 76 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 71 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 51 72 52 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 79 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 49 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 72 53 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 76 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 75 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 72 54 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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