467
FXUS64 KEPZ 150450
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1050 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY, THOUGH
THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW SUNDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MIDWEEK.
- SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO SEEP INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
ONE OF THE MOST IMPRESSIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS I'VE SEEN AT EPZ
STRUCK THIS PAST EVENING, DUMPING 1.89 INCHES OF RAIN, AND
PRODUCING GUSTS OF 68 MPH. LUCKILY THE WORST OF THAT CELL STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE SUBURBAN AREAS OF SANTA TERESA AND WEST EL PASO,
OTHERWISE WE'D HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HIGHER-END FLOODING.
STORMS DID LATER SPREAD EAST INTO URBAN EL PASO, PRODUCING MOSTLY
LOW-END FLOODING IN THE USUAL PLACES, BUT ALSO A GUST TO 74 MPH AT
THE AIRPORT. MUCH LIKE OUR GUST AT SANTA T, THIS SEEMED TO BE
FAIRLY LIMITED IN AREA, AND WE'VE RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE.
PICTURES HAVE CIRCULATED SHOWING LARGE CULVERTS STREWN ACROSS THE
I-10 GATEWAY BLVD NEAR AIRWAY, BUT IT IS NOT KNOWN IF WIND OR
WATER DEPOSITED THEM THERE.
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ARCING BACK FROM THE LOWER
VALLEY INTO THE BLACK RANGE. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS. WE'VE SEEN SOME INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
AT GAUGES IN LAS CRUCES JUST UNDER 1 INCH PER HOUR, BUT IT DOESN'T
SEEM TO BE LASTING LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH WORRY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS,
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD STILL HAVE SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO TOWARDS
DAWN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE, AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING RENEWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
STORMS LOOK TO START IN THE GILA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST AGAIN, WITH
SOME GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL AGAIN, SPREADING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY (WE HAD 45
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE 00Z RAOB), BUT SOME OF OUR MORE
DUST-PRONE AREAS MAY BE IMPACTED NEAR AND WEST OF DMN.
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS LOOK TO SETTLE IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, THOUGH WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SEEPING IN FROM THE SIERRA MADRES INTO SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MID-WEEK. A GULF SURGE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO IMPROVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST OF THE
DIVIDE, AND SOME OF THIS WILL SPILL INTO SW NM ON WESTERLY FLOW
MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE PERIOD, PROGRESSING TO THE E-SE. CONVECTION IS MODELED TO
DISSIPATE BY 9Z WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS IN THE NEAR-TERM. SKIES CLEAR MON
AM BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON,
WARRANTING PROB30 GROUPS LATER IN THE PERIOD. MVFR THRESHOLDS MAY BE
MET FROM TS DUE TO LOWERED VIS FROM HEAVY RAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FAIRLY LOW EARLY IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE,
SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
AREA. HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SOME MOISTURE LOOKS TO
SNEAK INTO SW NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 91 72 99 / 70 20 40 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 85 62 93 / 50 20 60 0
LAS CRUCES 64 89 63 96 / 60 40 50 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 89 66 96 / 50 20 30 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 69 50 75 / 60 20 50 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 89 66 97 / 40 30 20 0
SILVER CITY 60 88 60 92 / 40 40 10 0
DEMING 64 95 64 101 / 50 50 20 0
LORDSBURG 66 95 66 98 / 20 20 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 90 70 98 / 80 20 40 0
DELL CITY 63 88 63 96 / 30 50 40 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 93 69 99 / 50 20 40 0
LOMA LINDA 63 84 64 90 / 60 20 30 0
FABENS 67 92 68 99 / 60 20 30 0
SANTA TERESA 66 89 65 96 / 80 20 40 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 90 71 96 / 70 30 50 0
JORNADA RANGE 64 89 64 96 / 50 50 50 0
HATCH 65 92 63 99 / 60 40 30 0
COLUMBUS 69 95 69 100 / 50 30 50 0
OROGRANDE 63 88 64 95 / 50 10 40 0
MAYHILL 53 79 54 86 / 60 60 30 0
MESCALERO 52 79 53 86 / 60 20 40 0
TIMBERON 50 75 51 82 / 50 30 30 10
WINSTON 55 83 56 89 / 30 50 20 0
HILLSBORO 63 88 63 93 / 60 60 20 0
SPACEPORT 61 88 61 96 / 40 60 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 88 55 93 / 40 50 20 0
HURLEY 61 90 60 94 / 50 40 10 0
CLIFF 63 94 61 98 / 30 50 10 0
MULE CREEK 61 90 59 93 / 30 50 30 0
FAYWOOD 62 88 62 93 / 60 50 20 0
ANIMAS 65 95 65 97 / 20 10 20 0
HACHITA 64 94 64 98 / 30 20 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 93 64 96 / 30 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 63 89 61 91 / 30 20 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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