974
FXUS64 KEPZ 111733
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1033 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
- FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER SEVENTIES, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
- PACIFIC STORM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED LOWLAND
RAIN AND A WINTRY MIX OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
- FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS OUT OF
THE WEST NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
..TODAY AND THURSDAY
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER TEXAS TODAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EL PASO REGION. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR A WARM AFTERNOON, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
THIS IS 8-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER, HOWEVER WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS OUR NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
..FRIDAY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW REACHES THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, MOVING EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENT LIFTING
FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT, MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING.
TOTAL RAIN QPF IS 0.10-0.25" FOR MOST AREAS, THUS LOW IMPACTS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 7500
FEET, WHICH MEANS HIGH ELEVATIONS SITES LIKE CLOUDCROFT AND PINOS
ALTOS COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST
SNOW TOTALS ARE MINIMAL WITH THIS QUICK HITTING EVENT, LIKELY LESS
THAN AN INCH FOR THE MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES.
..SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PACIFIC LOW CROSSES OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
SUBSIDENT, NORTHWEST FLOW ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND THAT
TIME. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM'S EXIT, SO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER RESUMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
..NEXT WEEK
NEXT WEEK'S WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES CONSISTENT TROUGHING FLOW
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES PASSING TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RELIANT ON THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THESE WAVES. IF THEY MISS US TO THE NORTH, BEST BET WILL
BE STRONGER WINDS, SIGNALING THE START OF THE SPRING WINDY
SEASON. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
WINDS 140-180 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL NM. SKIES SKC-
FEW250 TODAY, BECOMING BKN-OVC250 AFTER 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SOUTH WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH RESULTING IN GOOD VENTILATION. A FEW HOURS OF GOOD VENT
RATES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES, GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH. NEW
PRECIPITATION TOTALS 0.25-0.50" FORECASTED FOR THE LOCAL MOUNTAIN
FORESTS, WITH SNOW LIMITED MOSTLY TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEW WEEK.
THE START OF THE SPRING WINDY SEASON LOOKS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION
AND TRANSPORT CONSISTENTLY TO THE ENE. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN GOING FORWARD AS THE FORESTS QUICKLY
DRY AND ERCS INCREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 74 52 68 / 0 0 0 70
SIERRA BLANCA 42 71 50 67 / 0 0 0 60
LAS CRUCES 43 71 47 63 / 0 0 0 70
ALAMOGORDO 43 71 47 64 / 0 0 0 70
CLOUDCROFT 35 51 37 44 / 0 0 10 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 71 47 62 / 0 0 10 70
SILVER CITY 42 64 43 54 / 0 0 10 90
DEMING 43 73 47 64 / 0 0 10 80
LORDSBURG 43 69 46 58 / 0 0 10 80
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 73 54 65 / 0 0 0 70
DELL CITY 39 72 48 68 / 0 0 0 60
FORT HANCOCK 46 78 52 73 / 0 0 0 60
LOMA LINDA 45 67 51 62 / 0 0 0 60
FABENS 46 76 52 70 / 0 0 0 60
SANTA TERESA 44 72 50 64 / 0 0 0 70
WHITE SANDS HQ 47 72 53 65 / 0 0 0 70
JORNADA RANGE 42 72 46 63 / 0 0 0 70
HATCH 42 74 47 65 / 0 0 10 80
COLUMBUS 45 74 50 65 / 0 0 10 80
OROGRANDE 42 71 48 63 / 0 0 0 70
MAYHILL 36 66 40 57 / 0 0 0 70
MESCALERO 36 63 38 57 / 0 0 10 80
TIMBERON 39 60 43 52 / 0 0 0 70
WINSTON 33 65 36 55 / 0 0 10 80
HILLSBORO 43 71 45 60 / 0 0 10 80
SPACEPORT 40 71 44 61 / 0 0 10 70
LAKE ROBERTS 37 63 39 53 / 0 0 10 90
HURLEY 40 68 42 57 / 0 0 10 90
CLIFF 40 70 43 59 / 0 0 10 90
MULE CREEK 40 66 42 54 / 0 0 10 80
FAYWOOD 43 67 46 57 / 0 0 10 90
ANIMAS 44 71 48 60 / 0 0 10 80
HACHITA 43 71 47 61 / 0 0 10 80
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 72 47 62 / 0 0 10 80
CLOVERDALE 46 66 47 54 / 0 0 10 90
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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