238
FXUS64 KEPZ 062339
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
439 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
- A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
- TEMPERATURES RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SOCAL COAST PULLING SOME HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE UP OVER OUR AREA WITH THE HELP OF A MODEST SUB-TROPICAL
JET. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS, BUT SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY
MID-DAY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY WETTENS FROM TOP DOWN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW TRAVELING EASTWARD WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SO SHOWERS WILL BE HIT OR
MISS BOTH DAYS. BEST CHANCE BOTH DAYS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
ZONES ADJACENT TO THE INTL BORDER. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE
9000 FT FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT.
DRY, TRANQUIL WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARM, SOME 10-13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT TROUGH DOES FINALLY MOVE IN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE, BRINGING TROUGH ACROSS NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY. ECMWF SLOWER WITH MORE OF A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY
OVER THE MEXICAN SONORAN DESERT FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY. THUS GFS PRECIP WINDOW IS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF WINDOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. FOR NOW BROADER BRUSH SWEEP LOOKS BEST AS THIS IS AT THE
VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE
TERMINALS LATER IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY SHRA
MENTION IN THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT AFTER 18Z IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME
TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS. CIGS DROP TO 090-100 FOR SATURDAY. WINDS
REMAIN AOB 6KTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOES MOVE IN MID-DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FT FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY
AGAIN MID-WEEK, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH NEXT WEEKEND'S SHOWERS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 25-35% THROUGH MONDAY, THEN 18-25%
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAINS 30-45% THROUGH MONDAY, THEN 25-35%
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES POOR-FAIR THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
FAIR-GOOD TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 46 69 44 71 / 0 30 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 42 67 43 68 / 0 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 42 65 38 67 / 0 30 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 40 66 38 68 / 0 30 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 34 48 32 49 / 0 30 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 42 64 40 67 / 0 40 10 10
SILVER CITY 40 60 38 64 / 0 30 10 20
DEMING 42 68 39 69 / 10 30 10 20
LORDSBURG 42 66 39 68 / 10 30 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 67 46 70 / 0 30 10 20
DELL CITY 38 68 42 70 / 0 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 45 73 45 74 / 0 20 20 20
LOMA LINDA 45 63 43 65 / 0 30 20 10
FABENS 45 70 44 72 / 0 30 20 20
SANTA TERESA 44 65 41 69 / 0 30 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 67 44 69 / 0 30 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 40 65 37 69 / 0 30 10 10
HATCH 40 68 38 71 / 0 30 10 10
COLUMBUS 45 67 43 69 / 10 20 10 20
OROGRANDE 41 65 40 68 / 0 30 10 10
MAYHILL 37 62 35 62 / 0 20 10 10
MESCALERO 35 60 33 61 / 0 40 20 10
TIMBERON 39 57 37 58 / 0 20 10 10
WINSTON 33 58 30 61 / 0 40 10 10
HILLSBORO 42 63 40 66 / 0 50 10 20
SPACEPORT 39 64 35 68 / 0 30 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 35 58 34 63 / 0 40 10 20
HURLEY 39 63 36 66 / 10 30 10 20
CLIFF 34 67 37 70 / 10 40 10 20
MULE CREEK 36 65 37 67 / 10 30 10 20
FAYWOOD 43 62 41 65 / 0 40 10 20
ANIMAS 43 68 41 69 / 10 30 20 20
HACHITA 42 65 38 68 / 10 10 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 66 41 68 / 10 20 10 30
CLOVERDALE 46 64 44 64 / 10 40 20 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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