505
FXUS64 KEPZ 090447
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1047 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK, THEN WARMING FOR
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY REGION-WIDE WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED STORMS OUT WEST LATE SATURDAY.
- MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND GAVE US SOME BEAUTIFUL CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE WE WILL HAVE A SHORT
WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THAT WILL KEEP
OUR SKIES CLEAR, OUR WINDS LIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR THE WEEKEND, OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAW A LITTLE
MOISTURE UP FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE MOISTURE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE PRETTY MEAGER WITH ONLY THE GILA REGION AND
LOCATIONS ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER HAVING MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. WILL EL PASO SEE ONE MORE 90 DEGREE DAY ON SUNDAY;
WE WILL BE CLOSE.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALL EYES TURN TOWARD ANOTHER TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL IN WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTH INTO OUR REGION. UNLIKE THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO THAT
POUNDED THE REGION LAST WEEK, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON
WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER DISTANCE TO TRAVEL TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. RIGHT NOW IT SEEMS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE EITHER DOESN'T
MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH OR IS SWEEP TO THE EAST BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS IN CASE THE MODELS TREND
IN A WETTER DIRECTION, BUT RIGHT NOW THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT IT IS NOT LOOKING TOO BAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
WEST OF THE RIVER. THINGS LOOK DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
WE WILL SEE UNLIMITED CEILINGS TONIGHT AND THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, OUR WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RH'S TO BE
AT THEIR MINIMUM OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH 20S ON THE LOWLANDS AND
30S/40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE GILA THIS AFTERNOON AND STARTING AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 58 42 60 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 75 54 75 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 59 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 61 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 84 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 64 87 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 63 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 83 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 83 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 59 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 46 70 47 72 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 67 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 49 73 49 73 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 58 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 57 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 74 48 74 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 55 78 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 56 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 54 80 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 56 77 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 59 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 58 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 58 80 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page