898
FXUS64 KEPZ 191713
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1013 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
- WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
AND BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC LOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND
WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE AS MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
..TODAY
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DEPICTS A LONGWAVE POLAR LOW OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL
FIXED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS PREVAILING GLOBAL PATTERN WILL
MORE-OR-LESS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S), LIGHT WINDS, AND PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS.
..TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS, WHICH HAS INDUCED A STRONG WESTWARD PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS
WILL BE THE SOURCE OF OUR BACKDOOR (OUT OF THE EAST) COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE EAST RIGHT
AROUND SUNSET, AS THE DECOUPLING OF THE MIXED LAYER ALLOWS THIS
COOL AIR MASS MOVES WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL BE
STRONGEST ACROSS EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES, IN PARTICULAR THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND THE FRANKLINS AND HUECOS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN GAPS LIKE
TRANSMOUNTAIN PASS AND US-62/180 AT DESERT HAVEN COULD ALSO BE
QUITE BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY, AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. LOWLAND HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 50S AS EAST WINDS SETTLE DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY ON TUESDAY.
..WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DRY CONDITIONS MIDWEEK WITH A WARMING TREND. COULD SEE ANOTHER
GLANCING BLOW OF COOL AIR OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT THIS WILL NOT STOP THE WARMING TREND
INTO THURSDAY. TYPICAL LATE JANUARY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-
TO-UPPER 60S. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WINTER STORM.
..FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SHORTWAVE JET STREAK WITHIN THE PREVAILING PACIFIC RIDGE LATE
THIS WEEK, INDUCING AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FAVORABLE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN A TOP-DOWN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LOCALLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BEGIN AS LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH
(7,500' AND HIGHER) SNOW ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, STRONG SURFACE HIGH
AND COLD AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE
SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LOWLANDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, BUT THIS WEEKEND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REGARDING WINTRY WEATHER AND POSSIBLE
LOWLAND SNOW. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES SCT-
BKN250 THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE WINDS AOB 5 KNOTS. FROPA
AROUND SUNSET (00-03Z) TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF
THE EAST 060-090 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT
MOUNTAIN-TOP (2,000 FEET AGL) AND ALONG WEST SLOPES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW AND POOR VENTILATION TODAY.
MIN RH 15-25%. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING TONIGHT, SHIFTING
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST INTO TUESDAY.
LOW FIRE DANGER THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND MIN RH
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERCS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER
LOCAL FORESTS DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS. LIGHT WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP VENT RATES IN THE POOR CATEGORY, WITH THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST AND THE
BLACK RANGE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 32 58 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 24 57 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 27 54 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 25 56 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 21 40 24 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 29 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 28 58 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 30 58 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 33 57 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 22 55 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 26 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 27 53 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 29 59 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 28 56 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 31 56 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 23 56 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 24 58 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 30 57 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 26 54 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 19 56 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 21 51 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 21 48 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 21 54 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 28 57 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 22 56 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 57 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 26 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 26 62 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 59 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 30 55 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 29 59 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 57 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 27 60 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 32 61 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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