474
FXUS64 KEPZ 281709
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1109 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO
RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF EL PASO
THIS EVENING. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF
THE US-54 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
UPPER LOW OVER ID/MT TODAY WITH AN 80-KNOT JET STREAK AT 500 MB
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LEE SURFACE LOW FORMATION WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN CO THIS AFTERNOON, INDUCING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MID-AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
CAUSED A DRYING TREND FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO, WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS CHIHUAHUA AND FAR WEST TEXAS
TODAY, WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.0-1.2" AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. ISOLATED (20-30% COVERAGE)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY
AND ACROSS I-10, US 62/180 CORRIDOR EAST OF EL PASO LATER TODAY.
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE SEVERE, BUT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BLOWING DUST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE TYPICAL OF LATE
JUNE, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES.
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
GENERALLY REST IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, WITH A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE
EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED (20-30%)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR OTERO/HUDSPETH
COUNTIES. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS WEEK, WHERE TERRAIN FORCING AIDS IN
CONVECTION. DECENT CHANCE EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES STAY DRY THROUGH
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
TOWARD THE 100-104 RANGE AGAIN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES
FEW-SCT120 THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS W TX AND SE
NM. TS THREAT REMAINS SE AND E OF KELP TODAY, WITH NO DIRECT
IMPACTS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS 230-260 AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS SW NM. OUTFLOW SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
SOUTH AT KELP 180-210 AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND MIN RH 12 TO 18%
CAUSING A FEW HOURS OF RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR GILA NF AND PORTIONS
OF GRANT/SIERRA/CATRON COUNTIES. FUEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK DRYNESS AND ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO HAS ERCS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WILDFIRE GROWTH WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY/TUESDAY (SOUTHWEST
10 TO 20 MPH) BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. FURTHER DRYING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO SINGLE-
DIGIT RH ACROSS GILA NF BY MIDWEEK. MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL
EXIST FURTHER EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LINCOLN
NATIONAL FOREST THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 98 75 97 / 10 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 91 64 91 / 30 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 68 96 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 96 69 95 / 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 73 53 73 / 0 0 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 96 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 62 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 95 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 96 75 95 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 70 97 68 96 / 20 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 73 98 71 97 / 30 20 10 10
LOMA LINDA 69 90 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
FABENS 73 98 72 97 / 20 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 71 95 71 94 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 96 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 99 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 98 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 95 68 94 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 59 85 57 84 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 57 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 55 82 53 81 / 0 0 10 10
WINSTON 58 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 96 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 63 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 62 94 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 90 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 91 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 95 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 94 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 94 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 88 62 88 / 0 0 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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