996
FXUS64 KEPZ 040431
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1031 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 953 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- BREEZY WEST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.
- WARMER AND POTENTIALLY DRIER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY BECOMING ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 953 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HEADING
INTO MONDAY. LOCALLY, THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN A
SUBTROPICAL TAP KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. IN
ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 15-25 MPH OUT OF THE WEST ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO START LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE GILA REGION AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE THE AREA MOUNTAINS WITH
ONLY SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN NEW MEXICO HAVING SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN THAT AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, TUESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 15-25 MPH AGAIN, BUT MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO MONDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS. MODELS AGREE ON PINCHING OFF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA BUT DISAGREEMENTS IN THE GFS AND EC
SOLUTIONS ON THURSDAY WITH WHAT MODELS WILL DO WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THE LOW CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND
SPINNING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BRINGING THE AREA SOME RAIN
CHANCES. MEANWHILE, THE EC SWEEPS THE LOW PRESSURE OFF BACK INTO
THE MAIN FLOW AND KEEPS US DRY THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND
QUIET WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AOB 10KT. WINDS WILL START TO PICK
UP AROUND 15-17Z BECOMING BREEZY. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL OCCUR.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AT AROUND 20G30KT. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MON/TUE WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RH'S MAINLY REMAINING ABOVE 15%. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVER AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND THE SACS ON TUE
WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE WINDIEST DAY. GOING INTO LATER IN THE WEEK,
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT RH'S
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE TEENS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 85 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 80 56 75 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 81 54 75 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 79 57 74 / 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 41 57 40 51 / 0 0 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 80 56 74 / 10 0 10 30
SILVER CITY 48 72 46 65 / 10 10 30 30
DEMING 53 83 53 78 / 0 0 10 20
LORDSBURG 51 80 52 73 / 0 0 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 83 62 78 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 53 83 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 88 62 83 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 77 56 72 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 59 86 61 81 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 82 58 77 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 82 63 77 / 10 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 53 80 54 75 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 55 83 56 78 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 57 85 57 79 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 54 79 58 74 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 45 71 48 64 / 0 0 10 20
MESCALERO 45 67 45 62 / 10 0 10 30
TIMBERON 43 66 45 61 / 0 0 10 20
WINSTON 44 71 42 66 / 10 10 30 40
HILLSBORO 54 77 53 71 / 10 0 20 30
SPACEPORT 49 80 52 74 / 10 0 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 45 72 42 65 / 10 10 40 40
HURLEY 48 76 47 69 / 10 0 20 30
CLIFF 48 78 49 72 / 10 10 40 40
MULE CREEK 46 74 45 67 / 10 10 50 50
FAYWOOD 51 75 49 69 / 10 0 20 30
ANIMAS 52 81 51 74 / 0 10 20 20
HACHITA 53 80 50 75 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 80 53 74 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 51 75 51 69 / 0 0 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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