180
FXUS64 KEPZ 231726
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1026 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS FORECAST
FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET WILL SEE
HIGHER TOTALS.
- UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
HUDSPETH COUNTY.
- THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
THE NEXT AND WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF SAID UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, OVERSPREADING ACROSS NM, WEST
TX, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL SURGE
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON TODAY. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 3-4 SIGMA ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH PW
VALUES BETWEEN 0.70-0.85". DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, LASTING
THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY (70- 90% POPS) AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING
(40-60% POPS). HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BRIEF
BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME BEFORE THE NEXT SWATH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERSPREADS THE
AREA DURING LATE MORNING SATURDAY. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 50-100 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVERSPREADING THE
LOWLANDS DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME, ALONG
WITH LI VALUES BETWEEN -2 TO 2. THE NBM SUITE OF GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWS 50-100 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THAT SAID, WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE, THERE WILL NOT BE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
INSERTED, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME. QPF OUTPUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN STEADY
WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.25" ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MEDIUM AT THIS TIME WITH REGARD TO QPF.
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, A HISTORICALLY STRONG
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (~1045-1050MB) WILL USHER IN A ARCTIC
AIRMASS ACROSS CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF SAID COLD FRONT,
TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA, AND WHETHER OR NOT
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE ONGOING AS IT PUSHES THROUGH - AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD THE ASPECTS JUST MENTIONED ABOVE.
TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE KEY, WITH REGARD TO SNOW MIXING ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS AND EVEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. AS FRESH DATA CONTINUES TO POPULATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. IF FROPA OCCURS EARLIER ON WHILE PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING, THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SNOW ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. IF FROPA OCCURS LATER ON WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS,
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING SNOW
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS (DIVE INTO THAT IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH) AND
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY/OTERO MESA REGION. AS OF NOW
FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES NBM PROBABILITIES ARE A LOW: PROBABILITY
OF >/= 0.5 SNOW : EL PASO-20% / LAS CRUCES-20%. THAT BEING SAID,
SNOW CHANCES FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES AREA ARE VERY LOW AND
CONFINED TO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME WITH VERY LITTLE TO
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO 1 INCH (15-30% CHANCES) OVER TRANSMOUNTAIN AND SAN AUGUSTIN PASS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, SNOW TOTALS
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND FLUCTUATIONS IN
SNOW LEVELS. RECENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FROPA HAPPENING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS OF NOW (8:00AM
MST), SNOW LEVELS ARE BELOW 9000FT OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WITH MODERATE SNOW OCCURRING IN CLOUDCROFT. GUIDANCE HAS SNOW
LEVELS RISING TO ABOVE 9000FT LATE THIS MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH MODERATE RAIN/SNOW MIX
EXPECTED OVER CLOUDCROFT. UNCERTAINTY IN SAID SNOW LEVELS REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AT THIS TIME WITH SNOW LEVELS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8900
TO 9400 FT THROUGH TODAY'S PERIOD. AGAIN, THE FLUCTUATION IN SNOW
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 9000FT WITH
BRIEF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING DURING THOSE INSTANCES WHEN
SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 9000FT. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 9000FT DURING THE LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME ON
SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE (70-80%) OF SEEING 4" OR
MORE OF SNOW (ADVISORY CRITERIA) OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 9000FT, ALONG WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BLACK RANGE.
MEDIUM CHANCE (45-55%) OF SEEING 8" OR MORE OF SNOW OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000FT. AND LOW CHANCE (10-25%) OF
SEEING 12" OR MORE OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000FT. THAT BEING SAID, WINTER WEATHER WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT THE ONSET TIMING WILL BE
TRIMMED BACK TO SATURDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF FRIDAY (THE ORIGINAL
START TIME). WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON FROPA AND ASSOCIATED SNOW
LEVELS DURING THE EVENT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR
ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000-8500 FEET OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
SIGNALS FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN HUDSPETH COUNTY ARE ALSO
FADING A BIT, WITH THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING FREEZING RAIN AT
SIERRA BLANCA AND JUST WEST OF VAN HORN AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SHALLOW COLD AIR MAKES ITS MOVE WEST. IT'S A VERY THIN LAYER OF WARM
AIR, RIGHT AROUND 800 MB (NOT FAR OFF THE GROUND), AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IT MAY ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RISK IS
STILL NOTABLE, HOWEVER, AND FREEZING RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GRIDS.
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DROPPING TO BELOW 10 PERCENT AFTER 12PM AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN.
SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD, WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS SUNDAY
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES BOTH MORNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH QUIET/FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS RESUMING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS, BUT NOT
MUCH WIND OR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWER CEILINGS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA FOR ALL TERMINALS. OFF
AND ON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH MORE STEADY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WE WILL RETURN TO OFF AND ON SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
VISIBILITIES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CHALLENGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE THE CEILINGS. I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE
CEILINGS AROUND THE REGION INTO THE MVFR RANGE OF THINGS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT WE COULD SEE SOME IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MY CONFIDENCE IN THOSE LOWER CEILINGS
AND THEIR TIMING IS NOT HIGH SO WATCH FOR TAF UPDATES AS
CONDITIONS DICTATE. WE WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT, BUT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY, WITH SNOW LIKELY
IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN WE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW
MIX INTO THE RAIN FOR KELP, KLRU AND KTCS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
WE WILL SEE AN EXTENDED TIME OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH TODAY ABOVE
9,000 FEET, BUT LOWER SOME TO GIVE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AREA
MOUNTAINS SOME SNOW. MIN RH'S THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
30%. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT, OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH
THE ONE EXCEPTION ON SUNDAY WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY WINDS.
ON SUNDAY WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY EAST WINDS FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE AND BREEZY WEST WINDS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
RIVER. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MIN RH'S RUN AT OR ABOVE 20% THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES TODAY WILL BE POOR AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
BETTER ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 53 35 49 / 90 100 90 70
SIERRA BLANCA 37 45 24 37 / 90 100 90 80
LAS CRUCES 41 50 32 47 / 90 100 90 50
ALAMOGORDO 40 50 23 41 / 90 100 100 60
CLOUDCROFT 29 32 14 23 / 100 100 100 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 54 30 48 / 90 90 90 40
SILVER CITY 38 47 27 45 / 100 80 100 40
DEMING 42 55 37 53 / 90 90 90 50
LORDSBURG 42 53 32 51 / 90 90 90 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 51 36 48 / 90 100 90 70
DELL CITY 33 41 18 34 / 90 90 90 60
FORT HANCOCK 43 55 30 47 / 90 100 90 80
LOMA LINDA 38 43 24 37 / 90 100 90 70
FABENS 44 53 31 48 / 90 100 90 70
SANTA TERESA 45 50 35 48 / 90 100 90 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 50 31 46 / 90 100 90 60
JORNADA RANGE 42 51 28 47 / 90 100 90 50
HATCH 42 56 31 52 / 90 90 90 50
COLUMBUS 46 55 40 54 / 90 100 90 60
OROGRANDE 40 47 25 42 / 90 100 100 70
MAYHILL 27 40 12 35 / 100 100 100 70
MESCALERO 31 42 15 34 / 100 100 100 60
TIMBERON 29 39 15 31 / 100 100 100 70
WINSTON 30 50 19 43 / 80 90 90 30
HILLSBORO 39 54 27 48 / 90 80 90 40
SPACEPORT 40 53 25 47 / 90 90 90 40
LAKE ROBERTS 35 47 24 44 / 90 90 90 40
HURLEY 38 51 29 48 / 100 80 90 40
CLIFF 39 54 27 52 / 90 80 90 30
MULE CREEK 38 50 25 48 / 90 80 90 30
FAYWOOD 41 50 32 48 / 90 90 90 40
ANIMAS 44 55 36 53 / 90 90 100 40
HACHITA 43 53 35 52 / 90 90 100 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 42 55 38 54 / 90 100 100 60
CLOVERDALE 44 48 37 48 / 90 90 100 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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