994
FXUS64 KEPZ 111728
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1128 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 655 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN.
- MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SPREADING WEST TO EAST.
DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY WITH JUST ISOLATED CHANCES
IN THE GILA AND FAR SW NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK UP
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING TO THE UPPER-10S EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK FROM WEST
TO EAST, AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REDUCE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY. MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MAINLY
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AND THE SOUTHWEST BOOTHEEL OF NEW
MEXICO. THERE MAY BE A STRAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
OTHER AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TO TOMORROW, BUT COVERAGE AND
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LIMITED. OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS
OVER THE GILA REGION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER PORTIONS
OF SIERRA COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EL PASO METRO AND LOWER VALLEY AREAS.
THERE WILL BE A PATTERN SHIFT STARTING ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH ALOFT
SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE TO
START FLOW NORTHWARD, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SUNDAY'S STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PRINCIPALLY OCCUR WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR BUT WITH ADDITIONAL COVERAGE FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
PLENTIFUL WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED BY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST FLOW PATTERN. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, A TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THAT COULD
SET UP CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN RUN TO RUN ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH, BUT OVERALL
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WETTER
AND MORE ACTIVE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO SW NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS, BUT GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS, LIKELY FROM THE NW, ARE POSSIBLE AT KTCS AFTER
ABOUT 00-02Z. THERE'S ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR
CONVECTIVE SHOWER REACHING DMN IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME, GIVEN
EXPECTED STORM MOTION OFF THE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA
REGION, BUT PROBABILITY IS ABOUT 20 PERCENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WILDFIRE RISK REMAINS LOW. DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED CHANCES TO MOSTLY MOUNTAINS IN THE GILA AND
FAR SW NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK UP TO AROUND 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING TO THE UPPER-TEENS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK FROM WEST TO EAST,
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. VENT RATES ARE GENERALLY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 101 74 100 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 69 99 69 98 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 100 71 99 / 0 10 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 54 74 / 0 20 0 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 97 71 96 / 10 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 63 90 63 89 / 10 10 20 20
DEMING 69 99 68 98 / 0 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 68 95 69 94 / 10 10 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 100 75 99 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 69 101 71 100 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 105 75 104 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 67 94 69 93 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 72 101 72 101 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 71 99 71 98 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 101 74 99 / 0 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 69 99 70 98 / 0 10 10 10
HATCH 70 101 70 100 / 0 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 73 99 73 99 / 10 10 10 10
OROGRANDE 67 98 69 97 / 0 10 0 10
MAYHILL 59 89 59 87 / 0 30 10 40
MESCALERO 57 88 57 86 / 0 10 0 40
TIMBERON 56 85 57 84 / 0 10 10 10
WINSTON 61 88 59 87 / 10 40 20 30
HILLSBORO 70 96 69 96 / 0 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 68 98 68 97 / 0 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 89 57 88 / 10 20 20 30
HURLEY 64 92 64 92 / 0 10 20 20
CLIFF 64 97 66 96 / 20 10 20 10
MULE CREEK 63 92 63 91 / 30 10 20 10
FAYWOOD 66 92 66 91 / 10 10 20 10
ANIMAS 68 94 69 95 / 10 10 20 50
HACHITA 68 95 68 95 / 10 10 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 94 67 94 / 20 10 20 30
CLOVERDALE 63 87 64 88 / 30 20 20 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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