629
FXUS64 KEPZ 092322
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
422 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 417 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
- WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR WEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- A SECOND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK
AREAWIDE WITH SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF OF SOUTHERN BAJA AND IT IS
STARTING TO MAKE IT'S MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME, BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP SOME
MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH MEXICO. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDERLAND BUT WE WILL BE IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. THE 12Z GFS CAME IN MUCH DRIER THAN THE
06Z, BUT LOOKING AT IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE 12Z TUE-00Z WED TIMEFRAME, THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS CONTINUING OVER HUDSPETH
COUNTY. MOST OF THE CAMS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THIS SCENARIO AS
WELL. DID RAISE POPS AND CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
TOMORROW FROM WHAT THE NBM GAVE. QPF AMOUNTS DID SEEM HIGH WITH
ALMOST A HALF INCH OVER HUDSPETH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. NAM TEMPS LOOK TOO COOL, EVEN WITH
THE PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. NBM TEMPS
DIDN'T LOOK TOO BAD BUT DID TAPER DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN HUDSPETH.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY TUE NIGHT AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND AND THEN MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM NIGHT WITH
DEW POINTS AROUND 35-45 FOR MOST OF THE CWA AND THE CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR WED/THU, BUT ANOTHER FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS ONE TAPS SOME BETTER MOISTURE AND IS
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
QUICK HITTING, SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE REAL HIGH, BUT
SOME QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500-8000, SO DO EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF
THE FRIDAY SYSTEM WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S, BUT COOLING DOWN FOR
FRI/SAT. DRY AND WARMER FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 417 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT KTCS, KDMN,
AND KLRU. THOSE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH THERE PERIOD, WHILE KELP IS CLOSER TO THE AREA OF EXPECTED
PCPN. THUS, SKIES INCREASING IN CLOUDS, ESP. SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS, HAVING FEWER CLOUDS, AND HIGHER CIGS. LOWER CLOUDS
INVADING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS OF PCPN
LIKELY STREAMING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS, WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT KELP AFT 19Z. EXPECT PROB 30 OF LOWER CIGS,
RESTRICTED VSBY, AND SHRA THERE, BUT FLIGHT CAT STAYING NEAR VFR
TO ONLY MVFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW
ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS TOMOROW ALSO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS STARTING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SYSTEMS AND KEEP RH'S ABOVE 20% AND BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TUESDAY, BUT AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY. SOME
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000FT WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
NOT BE A A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WILL START TO BECOME A
CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 65 46 73 / 10 30 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 62 44 70 / 20 60 20 0
LAS CRUCES 44 65 42 70 / 0 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 65 40 70 / 0 30 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 48 33 49 / 0 20 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 43 68 44 70 / 0 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 42 65 41 66 / 0 10 10 10
DEMING 44 68 43 71 / 0 20 10 10
LORDSBURG 43 68 44 71 / 0 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 64 46 73 / 10 20 10 0
DELL CITY 47 61 44 70 / 0 50 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 70 46 77 / 20 50 20 0
LOMA LINDA 48 60 43 66 / 10 40 10 0
FABENS 50 64 46 75 / 10 40 10 0
SANTA TERESA 47 63 44 71 / 10 20 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 48 65 46 72 / 0 30 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 40 64 40 69 / 0 20 10 0
HATCH 41 69 42 75 / 0 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 47 68 46 74 / 10 20 10 0
OROGRANDE 45 63 42 70 / 0 30 10 0
MAYHILL 40 59 35 65 / 0 20 10 0
MESCALERO 37 60 34 62 / 0 10 10 10
TIMBERON 37 55 37 60 / 0 30 10 0
WINSTON 32 62 35 66 / 0 10 10 10
HILLSBORO 43 67 43 71 / 0 10 10 10
SPACEPORT 39 68 39 70 / 0 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 64 34 65 / 0 10 10 20
HURLEY 37 66 40 67 / 0 10 10 10
CLIFF 30 69 36 72 / 0 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 29 66 36 68 / 0 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 43 66 44 67 / 0 10 10 10
ANIMAS 45 68 45 74 / 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 43 66 43 72 / 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 66 42 73 / 10 20 10 0
CLOVERDALE 47 61 45 69 / 10 20 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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