471
FXUS64 KEPZ 030412
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1012 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1011 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL (5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) THROUGH
MONDAY; WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WINDS AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
EXTREMELY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. CLOSED OFF
LOW IN THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER SE NEW MEXICO. DEEPER LAYERED
MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OVER OUR
AREA SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT
OF YESTERDAY. EXTENSIVE CU AND SC FORMED WITH THIS MOISTURE WITH A
FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS. STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE WITH THE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN SACS AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS
CONTINUE IN OTHER AREAS EAST OF THE ORGAN/FRANKLIN MTNS. ALL THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY MID-DAY,
THOUGH MODELS SHOW CONTINUED UPSLOPE AND STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVER
THE EASTERN SACS INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NICE FALL WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE TROUGH
SLINKS SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP WITH HIGHS BACK TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH DOES RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND
DOWN OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT COULD KICK OFF A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF BEGIN WILD DIVERGENCE IN
SOLUTIONS AFTER THURSDAY. GFS DROPS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DOWN
SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND, CLOSING IT OFF INTO A LOW AND LIFTING IT BACK
UP TO WEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY WITH A BATCH OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN. ECMWF TAKES THAT SAME CLOSED LOW EASTWARD ALLOWING
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
EAST OF THE SAN ANDRES/ORGAN/FRANKLIN MTNS...SCT-BKN080 BKN/OVC120.
ISOLATED BKN050 -SHRA. ADDITIONALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND THE
RIDGE OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS..OCCASIONAL OVC030 1-3SM -DZ BR. WEST
OF THE SAN ANDRES/ORGAN/FRANKLIN MTNS...SCT080 SCT-BKN120. MOST OF
THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATING TOWARD SATURDAY MID-DAY/AFTERNOON. EAST
WINDS 7-10 KNOTS. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS MAINLY OVER HIDALGO COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS COMING FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH HIGHS
STARTING OUT ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ENDING UP ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RH'S WILL BE
ABOVE 30% THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME 20S POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN FOR SATURDAY THEN ANOTHER
SLIGHT INCREASE FOR SUN/MON BUT STILL BELOW 20KTS. BESIDES A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE SACS INTO THIS EVENING AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
MON/WED NEXT WEEK UP THERE AS WELL, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR SAT AND IMPROVE TO FAIR TO GOOD FOR
SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 72 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 72 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 72 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 57 38 58 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 71 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 70 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 73 54 75 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 74 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 70 54 72 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 58 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 75 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 76 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 74 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 74 55 78 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 74 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 46 66 44 65 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 45 67 44 68 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 43 62 42 64 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 44 68 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 70 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 71 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 74 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 71 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 70 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 74 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 72 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 73 55 75 / 0 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 70 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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