781
FXUS64 KEPZ 271721
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1021 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
- RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES, AVERAGING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER, WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT STILL SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
- NEXT WEEK, CONTINUE FAIR, DRY, AND WARM. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE
AS WARM AS THIS WEEKEND, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO
PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT.
- FIRE DANGER INCREASES NEXT WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 906 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
A BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL CENTERED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO STAY PUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND CONTINUED ABNORMAL
WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 10-23
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL SEE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 80S. EL PASO LOOKS TO BE
FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY!
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT, WEAKEN, AND SLOWLY
POSITION ITSELF OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO, HELPING TO COOL DOWN
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
BUT WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM AS WHAT WE'LL SEE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER
THING THAT'S HELPING TO COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES IS A COUPLE OF
PASSING TROUGHS TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE GENERAL TREND
FOR THESE SYSTEMS IS MORE A NORTHWARD POSITION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL WIND MAKERS FOR THE AREA. IN ADDITION, DUST
WILL BECOME A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN AND DUE TO THE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED BREEZINESS, CRITICAL FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AOB 10KT AND SOME PASSING FEW-SCT250.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 906 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
CRITICAL MIN RHS WILL BE SEEN EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL EACH
DAY WITH VALUES OF AROUND 15-20%. DURING THE WEEKEND, WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH CONTINUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE LOWEST MIN RHS OF THE WEEK WITH
SEVERAL LOWLAND LOCATIONS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM AS WHAT WE'RE EXPECTING
THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK,
EXCEPT WEDNESDAY, WILL FEATURE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WITH BREEZY
WINDS, ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND CRITICAL MIN RHS CONTINUING, AT
LEAST ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 47 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 64 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 82 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 79 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 47 88 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 84 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 45 87 47 89 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 91 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 51 89 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 85 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 84 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 45 87 47 89 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 88 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 79 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 40 75 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 46 74 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 78 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 83 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 83 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 79 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 82 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 44 85 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 81 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 82 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 85 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 88 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 82 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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