202
FXUS64 KEPZ 141222
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
622 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
- A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES, INCREASING MOISTURE, AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY, ACROSS THE WIDER AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MID-LEVEL HIGH NOW OVER EAST TEXAS, WITH UPPER-LEVEL HIGH GRADUALLY
DRIFTING EAST TO JOIN. MONDAY BEGINS A 2-3 DAY RAMP UP IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AS FAR
AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
RIDGING BACK WEST OVER THE CWA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, PERHAPS
CONCENTRATING BEST MOISTURE/CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...UPPER HIGH BEGINS DRIFTING BACK WEST
BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC, ALLOWING BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD DISTRIBUTE THE MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES MORE EVENLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT MONDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGHEST PWS ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
BEST AREA-WIDE STORM COVERAGE AND RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS ON THESE
TWO DAYS. MODELS STILL SHOWING NUMEROUS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. A COUPLE OF THESE WAVES
PHASE IN WITH THE MID-LATITUDE JET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SWEEPING
THEM EAST BOTH DAYS.
MODELS DO BEGIN DIVERGING ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AFTER FRIDAY. GFS SHOWS
MAIN MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, AND FLUSHING THE MOISTURE
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVING A FAIR WEATHER RIDGE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. ECMWF SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH, NOT MOVING THROUGH AND
FLUSHING THE MOISTURE UNTIL MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND THIS WEEK--WE MAY HAVE SEEN
OUR LAST CHANCE TODAY FOR TRIPLE DIGITS. BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WE MAY EVEN SEE BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE EL PASO AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK MCV
LIFTS NORTHEAST. EXPECT -SHRA TO END BY AROUND 13Z. AFTER SUNRISE
INTRODUCING A LITTLE MIXING, WE COULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AND
OBSCURE THE TOPS OF THE FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH DECREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE REGION TODAY,
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WORKING INTO
LOWLAND TERMINALS WILL BE AT TCS AND DMN, WITH ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE AT LRU. BREEZY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ELP THIS
EVENING, AND WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, THE PROBABILITY FOR TODAY OR THIS EVENING IS AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 607 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
A STEADY COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST SLOWLY EDGES OUT THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH LOOKS TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY BECOMING THE NORM.
BELOW NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST,
AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BY MID-WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON. THE MAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING TO
HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON VENT RATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 93 71 90 / 30 60 70 40
SIERRA BLANCA 68 92 64 89 / 20 50 60 40
LAS CRUCES 68 90 65 88 / 40 50 70 40
ALAMOGORDO 69 92 65 89 / 50 50 60 60
CLOUDCROFT 53 69 50 66 / 40 50 60 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 88 66 85 / 50 40 60 70
SILVER CITY 62 83 60 80 / 60 50 70 80
DEMING 67 90 64 88 / 40 50 70 50
LORDSBURG 68 87 66 85 / 50 40 70 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 93 70 90 / 30 60 70 40
DELL CITY 71 95 67 91 / 20 60 70 50
FORT HANCOCK 74 98 71 96 / 20 50 60 50
LOMA LINDA 68 87 65 84 / 20 60 70 50
FABENS 72 95 69 92 / 20 60 70 40
SANTA TERESA 70 91 67 88 / 30 60 70 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 93 70 90 / 30 60 70 50
JORNADA RANGE 65 91 63 88 / 40 50 70 50
HATCH 69 93 67 90 / 50 50 60 50
COLUMBUS 72 91 69 88 / 40 50 70 50
OROGRANDE 65 91 63 88 / 30 60 70 60
MAYHILL 59 82 56 79 / 30 60 50 90
MESCALERO 57 80 54 77 / 40 50 60 90
TIMBERON 56 79 53 76 / 40 50 60 70
WINSTON 58 79 56 77 / 60 70 60 90
HILLSBORO 68 86 65 84 / 50 50 60 80
SPACEPORT 63 90 61 86 / 40 40 60 60
LAKE ROBERTS 56 81 55 79 / 60 60 70 90
HURLEY 63 84 61 82 / 50 40 70 80
CLIFF 60 89 61 86 / 60 40 70 90
MULE CREEK 56 84 57 82 / 50 40 70 90
FAYWOOD 65 84 63 81 / 50 50 70 70
ANIMAS 68 87 66 85 / 50 60 70 80
HACHITA 67 87 64 85 / 40 60 70 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 88 64 85 / 40 70 70 70
CLOVERDALE 65 82 62 80 / 40 60 60 80
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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