114
FXUS64 KEPZ 120517
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1017 PM MST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM MST THU DEC 11 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING ABOUT 7-15 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST THU DEC 11 2025
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES AS A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEST
COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE BORDERLAND REGION. ALL IN ALL, EXPECT QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10-17 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH NEAR RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL BE A MINIMUM WITH INSTANCES OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FROM TIME TO
TIME. WINDS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT TO LOW-END BREEZY, TYPICAL
DIURNAL WIND FLOW REGIME.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD BY THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THAT'S HAPPENING, AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KNOCK ON OUR DOOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING IN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY, BUT REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF AREA
MOUNTAINS.
THEREAFTER, A MORE ZONAL-LIKE FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL RESUME ACROSS
THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST THU DEC 11 2025
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AT 3-8 KNOTS AND VRB IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRI/SAT BEFORE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHES IN TO DROP HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES. MIN RH'S WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGH SAT BUT JUMP INTO THE 20S AND
30S FOR SUN/MON BEFORE DROPPING BACK OFF AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SAT BUT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY SUN BEHIND
THE FRONT. POOR VENT RATES FRI WITH A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FOR SAT
TO FAIR IN MOUNTAIN ZONES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 42 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 38 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 36 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 36 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 33 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 38 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 69 40 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 72 36 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 69 37 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 43 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 72 32 73 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 38 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 41 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 37 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 69 37 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 44 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 33 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 72 34 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 36 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 64 36 68 27 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 65 34 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 61 33 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 65 32 68 29 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 68 41 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 33 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 69 34 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 69 37 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 74 36 73 33 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 71 36 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 68 40 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 72 38 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 70 36 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 72 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 69 46 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page