347
FXUS64 KEPZ 201214
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
614 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EL PASO AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAY
PRODUCE HIGHLY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT STORM MOTION IS
FAIRLY STEADY.
- DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
RESTRICT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN THE LOWLANDS.
- A RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVY
RAIN WILL POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AREA WIDE, FAVORING
AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING OVER EL
PASO AND JUAREZ CURRENTLY, SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED FROM WHAT
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD BEEN INSISTING ON. THE APPEAR TO BE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO VERY WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
THE RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LAST FOR A COUPLE HOURS
OVER THE METRO AREA BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. RADAR SHOWS WEAK OUTFLOW
APPROACHING EPZ FROM THE SW, WHICH COULD INCREASE COVERAGE OVER
ELP IN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE, TOMORROW AND MONDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE DOWN DAYS AS
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS FILTERS IN FROM THE NW, AND WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOOK SET TO TANK
INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE FRINGES OF SOME
MOISTURE MAY IMPINGE ON THE BOOTHEEL LATE MONDAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY WILL
WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL STAY STRONG OVER EAST TEXAS, CAUSING THE WHOLE PATTERN
TO AMPLIFY. SW WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK AROUND TO MORE OF A SSW-S
DIRECTION AND BEGIN ADVECTING COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ALONG WITH CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROLLING UP FROM THE SIERRA MADRES. AT THE SAME
TIME, A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL BUILD SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE NOT QUITE A BACKDOOR FRONT, INCREASING
SE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PULL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH MOISTURE BELOW AND ABOVE, PWAT VALUES
WILL APPROACH 1.50 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE 500 MB PATTERN IS ALSO VERY FALL-LIKE, WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DESPITE THE SUBTROPICAL TAP. HIGH ALOFT, THE
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT CONFIGURATION, WITH STRONG
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS SE ARIZONA, NM, AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS
OVERALL PATTERN BASICALLY STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND LIKELY HIGHLY-
EFFICIENT WARM-RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING. THE RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE
MODULATED BY THE TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROLLING UP
FROM THE SOUTH, BUT THE FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. SO, TUESDAY WILL
PROBABLY START OFF WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL TREND FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION, BUT STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR S TO N TRAINING OF STORMS, AND THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHERE PRECISELY
THESE PATTERNS SET UP. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALSO LOOK PLENTY
MOIST WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING, BUT CONVECTION WILL BE IMPACTED BY
LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER. THE 00Z GFS IS TRYING TO SHIFT THE AXIS FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD STILL PUT THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN ELP IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS, BUT START TO EASE UP ON THE
GILA, IF THE SHIFT HOLDS. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS
TO SHIFT BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
EXPECT QUIET AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRIER
AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING HARDLY ANY STORMS
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA BUT PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CUMULUS. WINDS STAY
GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS AOB 10KT SUSTAINED BUT GUSTS TO 16KT POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY (SUNDAY) ACROSS THE AREA BUT LOW END STORM
CHANCES RETURN MONDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST NM. A VERY WET SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND LOOK DRIER. NEAR CRITICAL MIN RHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TODAY
AND TOMORROW WITH VALUES OF 17-25% AND MOUNTAIN RHS OF 30-40%. DUE
TO THE WET WEATHER, MIN RHS WILL BE 40-60% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 60-
90% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 MPH EACH AFTERNOON BUT TUESDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZIER AT 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS COULD REACH UP TO 50-55 MPH DIRECTLY UNDER THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT WILL BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DURING MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 93 70 85 / 0 0 10 70
SIERRA BLANCA 63 90 64 84 / 0 0 20 50
LAS CRUCES 61 89 65 81 / 0 0 20 80
ALAMOGORDO 63 89 64 83 / 0 0 10 80
CLOUDCROFT 48 67 48 60 / 0 20 20 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 85 63 78 / 0 0 20 80
SILVER CITY 58 81 60 75 / 0 10 10 70
DEMING 61 91 65 82 / 0 0 20 70
LORDSBURG 64 88 67 82 / 0 0 10 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 92 70 85 / 0 0 10 70
DELL CITY 63 93 66 85 / 0 10 20 60
FORT HANCOCK 69 97 72 92 / 0 10 20 50
LOMA LINDA 63 86 64 79 / 0 0 10 60
FABENS 65 94 70 88 / 0 0 10 60
SANTA TERESA 61 91 67 83 / 0 0 20 70
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 91 69 83 / 0 0 20 80
JORNADA RANGE 62 89 66 81 / 0 0 10 80
HATCH 61 91 66 83 / 0 0 20 80
COLUMBUS 64 92 70 84 / 0 0 20 70
OROGRANDE 60 89 65 82 / 0 0 20 70
MAYHILL 53 79 53 70 / 0 20 30 80
MESCALERO 52 78 53 71 / 0 20 10 90
TIMBERON 52 77 52 70 / 0 10 20 80
WINSTON 54 77 56 71 / 0 0 10 80
HILLSBORO 63 84 64 77 / 0 0 20 70
SPACEPORT 59 87 63 80 / 0 0 20 80
LAKE ROBERTS 52 79 55 73 / 0 10 10 70
HURLEY 57 84 60 77 / 0 10 10 70
CLIFF 58 87 62 82 / 0 0 10 60
MULE CREEK 58 83 62 78 / 0 0 10 60
FAYWOOD 59 84 63 77 / 0 0 20 70
ANIMAS 66 89 67 83 / 0 10 10 60
HACHITA 63 89 66 82 / 0 0 10 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 89 66 83 / 0 20 20 70
CLOVERDALE 61 85 64 80 / 0 30 10 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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