496
FXUS64 KEPZ 290446
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
946 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
PROGRESSIVE, ZONAL PATTERN CONTINUING WITH MAIN JET STREAM OVER
THE NORTHERN/MID U.S. SMALL BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM
IS PUSHING PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, SO EXPECT PLENTY OF CIRRUS OVERNIGHT YET. RIDGE ALOFT
REBUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
FORCE THE SUB-TROPICAL JET AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
CWA LATER THURSDAY. SMALL SHORT-WAVE IN THIS FLOW ZIPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WITH VERY LITTLE IMPACT.
IT WILL BRING SOME MODEST NORTH WINDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK STILL SEES THE WEATHER ON SIESTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW POSSIBLY SHAKING IT'S SLUMBER BY SWEEPING A SMALL LOW/TROUGH
EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. GFS MORE BULLISH,
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT AS RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORT-WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TROUGH BECOMES VERY POSITIVELY
TILTED BY THURSDAY, WITH BOTH MODELS CUTTING LOW OFF NEAR THE
BAJA. DECENT SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS WITH THIS, THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION NOT AS STRONG ON LAST GFS MODEL RUN. STILL LOOKS LIKE
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT150 BKN-OVC250. CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO THIN OUT BY END OF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
AOB 7 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH 7-10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS, MAINLY OVER
THE LOWLANDS, BUT MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE SHALLOWER BEHIND THE
FRONT.
ERCS ARE NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS AFTER THE RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD FOR THE MOST
PART, SLIGHTLY LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE GILA, WHICH RECEIVED LESS
AMOUNTS OF RAIN RECENTLY COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS.
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS, WITH VENT RATES IMPROVING TO FAIR OVER THE GILA
THURSDAY, THOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE POOR IN THE LINCOLN NF. FAIR
TO GOOD CATEGORIES LOOK ACHIEVABLE BY FRIDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 34 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 31 53 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 30 58 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 27 55 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 42 20 39 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 58 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 33 58 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 33 62 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 32 60 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 59 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 21 53 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 32 61 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 33 51 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 31 61 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 31 58 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 57 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 26 58 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 61 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 34 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 25 52 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 52 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 24 51 21 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 26 49 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 55 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 34 58 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 26 57 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 57 20 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 60 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 63 19 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 19 61 15 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 35 58 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 35 61 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 31 60 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 36 61 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 59 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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