467
FXUS64 KEPZ 052350
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
550 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH
SATURDAY LIMITED MOSTLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- DRIER AND WARMER ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MANY LOWLAND
AREAS SEEING THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FLARE UP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. ALL AREAS OF THE CWA
WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING,
WITH THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY RECEIVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS (40-60%). THE LOW REACHES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY, SO ANY LIMITED MOISTURE BE RELEGATED TO THE EASTERN
REACHES OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES, WHILE THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK INTO THE 90S.
A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS UP TO OUR WEST FOR SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXITS OUR REGION, AND THE LOWLANDS WILL BREACH THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK AT THE EARLIEST, SUNDAY, AT THE LATEST, TUESDAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, A NEW PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE, AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FACILITATE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, THE GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW A DISCREPANCY FOR WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE; GFS HAS THE LOW DEEPER INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY, THEREBY RAISING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH,
KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DOWN. ON THURSDAY, THE GFS HAS DRIER
FLOW MOVING IN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE MOISTURE STAY IN OUR
REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SCT090 SCT-BKN150 BKN-OVC250. ISOLATED BKN060CB 4-6SM -TSRA WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DONE BY 07Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 6-10
KNOTS, WITH STORM OUTFLOW GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS. LOCAL 1-3SM BLDU
NEAR STORMS. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE STORM OUTFLOW DEVELOPING
IN SIERRA COUNTY AROUND 03Z WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35
KNOTS. THIS OUTFLOW WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN ACROSS LUNA, DONA ANA,
AND EL PASO COUNTIES AROUND 04Z. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
MOISTURE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TEENS TOWARD THE AZ BORDER WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY AND INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BY
SATURDAY, AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID
TEENS WHILE AREAS EAST HOLD ONTO THE 20S. THIS WILL LEAD TO POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES SATURDAY NIGHT, AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE AFTERNOON MIN RH
VALUES NEAR 10% WHILE HIGHS TOP OUT UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
INCREASING MORE FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
CONFINED TO EASTERLY AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH ALL AREAS STAYING DRY
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, STAYING
UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. VENT RATES WILL RANGE POOR EAST
TO EXCELLENT WEST TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE A CATEGORY TO
FAIR ON SATURDAY WITH ALL AREAS RANGING VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ON
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 94 71 99 / 40 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 86 60 93 / 30 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 94 64 96 / 30 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 61 91 67 96 / 30 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 69 50 74 / 30 30 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 94 67 95 / 30 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 55 89 58 87 / 20 0 0 0
DEMING 60 99 64 98 / 30 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 61 94 62 94 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 93 69 98 / 30 0 0 0
DELL CITY 58 89 60 97 / 30 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 95 65 101 / 30 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 85 63 90 / 30 0 0 0
FABENS 61 95 64 100 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 60 93 65 97 / 30 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 93 74 97 / 30 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 60 93 64 97 / 30 0 0 0
HATCH 61 97 66 99 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 97 70 98 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 90 63 96 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 51 80 55 87 / 30 40 10 10
MESCALERO 49 80 53 84 / 30 30 0 0
TIMBERON 46 75 50 81 / 30 30 0 0
WINSTON 53 86 57 87 / 30 10 10 0
HILLSBORO 61 91 65 93 / 30 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 58 92 62 96 / 30 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 52 90 54 88 / 30 10 0 0
HURLEY 56 91 60 90 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 56 95 57 94 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 55 91 55 89 / 20 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 90 61 90 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 61 95 61 94 / 20 0 0 0
HACHITA 60 94 62 94 / 20 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 93 62 94 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 57 88 59 88 / 20 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page