883
FXUS64 KEPZ 071148
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
448 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 447 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
- A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING, WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS BUT MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, WILL BE QUIET AND SEASONAL AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY WEATHER OF NOTE THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR (EAST TO WEST) COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. I HESITATE TO CALL IT A WEAK COLD FRONT
SINCE THERE IS ALMOST NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY. WHAT WILL BE NOTICEABLE ABOUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE BRISK EAST WINDS THAT COME IN WITH THE FRONT. WE WILL SEE
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST
GUST ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY'S HIGHS
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES, AND SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. INITIALLY WE WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES, BUT AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. TUESDAY WILL BE OUR ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVER OUR REGION, WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME HIGH ELEVATION LIGHT SNOW. ALONG
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE WILL SEE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
(BUT NOT TOO WINDY) CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RUN 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT
HIGHS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, WILL RUN A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY AND
PUSH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL RETURN US TO OUR
NORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IT WILL KEEP US
CLEAR OF ANY HIGH WIND AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT100 SCT-BKN250.
ALSO AFTER 00Z...SLIGHT CHANCE OF BKN070 -SHRA OVER HUDSPETH
COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING NORTHEAST/EAST 10-15G23 KNOTS AS
COOL FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. AFTER 00Z WINDS BECOMING
EAST/SOUTHEAST 7-10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHING WEST THROUGH THE FIRE ZONES THIS MORNING
WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY EAST WINDS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT PACIFIC STORM OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY BUT HIGHER HUMIDITY
SHOULD ALLEVIATE MORE SERIOUS FIRE CONDITIONS. DRY AND WARM AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 13-23% THROUGH MONDAY, INCREASING TO 20-30%
TUESDAY, THEN BACK 13-20% WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. MOUNTAINS 15-25%
THROUGH MONDAY, INCREASING TO 30-45% TUESDAY, THEN BACK 20-30%
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD TODAY AND SUNDAY,
VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN FAIR-GOOD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 46 76 50 82 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 40 71 45 78 / 20 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 38 71 44 78 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 36 72 42 79 / 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 28 54 35 59 / 0 10 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 72 45 76 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 38 66 42 70 / 0 0 10 30
DEMING 40 74 43 79 / 0 0 10 20
LORDSBURG 42 72 43 75 / 0 0 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 74 52 81 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 36 73 41 82 / 0 10 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 43 78 48 85 / 20 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 42 69 48 75 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 46 78 48 84 / 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 41 74 46 79 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 73 50 79 / 0 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 35 73 40 78 / 0 10 10 10
HATCH 35 75 41 80 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 43 75 47 80 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 38 72 42 78 / 0 10 10 10
MAYHILL 30 66 37 71 / 0 10 0 10
MESCALERO 30 64 37 69 / 0 10 10 20
TIMBERON 33 61 40 67 / 0 10 10 20
WINSTON 27 64 32 70 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 38 69 45 75 / 0 0 10 20
SPACEPORT 33 72 39 77 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 28 67 33 70 / 0 10 10 30
HURLEY 36 69 40 72 / 0 0 10 20
CLIFF 29 75 33 76 / 0 0 10 30
MULE CREEK 25 71 30 72 / 0 0 10 30
FAYWOOD 39 68 45 72 / 0 0 10 20
ANIMAS 39 73 42 76 / 0 0 10 30
HACHITA 40 72 42 76 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 73 42 76 / 10 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 42 69 45 70 / 0 0 10 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page