516
FXUS64 KEPZ 271134
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
434 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 349 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
- RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES, AVERAGING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER, WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT STILL SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
- NEXT WEEK, CONTINUE FAIR, DRY, AND WARM. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE
AS WARM AS THIS WEEKEND, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO
PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK, DUE TO
EXTENDED DRYING, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS MOST AFTERNOONS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
OUR WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MARCH AS UPPER RIDGING
HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, APPROACHING MONTHLY RECORDS ON SATURDAY.
EL PASO'S FEB RECORD HIGH IS 86, WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE
28TH IS 87 (NBM GIVES KELP A 60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST TYING THE
RECORD). SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. KELP HAS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF
HITTING 90 ON SUN, WHICH WOULD BLOW AWAY THE RECORD FOR EARLIEST 90,
SET ON MARCH 18, 1907. FAIR SKIES AND SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS BY THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION, BRINGING BREEZIER CONDITIONS. NEXT WEEK'S WINDS
DON'T LOOK VERY IMPACTFUL AS OF NOW, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF TUESDAY'S SYSTEM AND WHERE THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. CURRENTLY, TUE LOOKS LIKE A 15-25 MPH, GUSTING
TO 35 MPH TYPE OF DAY FROM THE WEST. A WEAK FRONT ACCOMPANIES THIS
SYSTEM, KNOCKING DOWN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT
STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. THE
NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO
FOR TUE. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND SUPPLY
SOME MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING ANY RAIN CHANCES
FOR NEXT THU/FRI, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE INCHING OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIR, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND ONLY MINIMAL
HIGH THIN CLOUDS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY, NORTHERLY EARLY,
THEN VARIABLE TO WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. NO DUST OR ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL HIGHLIGHT TWO DISTINCT
WEATHER PATTERNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE REPLACES THE HIGH WITH A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. THE FIRST PATTERN WILL
WARM AND DRY THE REGION, AND FUELS, SUBSTANTIALLY. THE SECOND
PATTERN WILL ADD STRONGER WINDS TO THE MIX, MAKING FOR ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP THE REGION QUITE DRY, AS THERE IS NO MOISTURE IN SIGHT.
DAILY MINRH WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS, WITH SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS
IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS, WITH ONLY POOR TO FAIR NIGHTLY RECOVERIES.
THUS FUELS WILL CERTAINLY TREND SHARPLY DRIER NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM, WITH DAILY HIGHS NEAR AND EXCEEDING RECORDS, AS THEY CLIMB
TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. WINDS ALOFT WILL STILL BE
MODERATE, AND THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
AFTERNOON MIXING, WITH SOME MARGINALLY BREEZY AFTERNOON PERIODS.
NEXT WEEK WE SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE, AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OUT
AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SWING ACROSS THE SW, BUT
PASS TO OUR NORTH. THESE WILL LIKELY NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION,
AS THE MOISTURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH, BUT THEY WILL DIRECT
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. IT APPEARS EACH AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. TUESDAY, FRIDAY, AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK TO
BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THIS POINT.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE GOOD EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE
WARM CONDITIONS HELPING TO KEEP MIXING DEPTH HIGH, AND MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP TRANSPORT WINDS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 47 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 61 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 83 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 47 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 47 87 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 84 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 87 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 90 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 79 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 52 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 85 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 84 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 84 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 87 48 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 87 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 82 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 76 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 72 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 71 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 77 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 50 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 44 83 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 78 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 81 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 44 85 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 44 80 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 81 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 85 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 87 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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