536
FXUS64 KEPZ 180446
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1046 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
- COLD FRONT ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
..SATURDAY
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ROLLING THROUGH ROSWELL AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS EVENING WILL REACH EL PASO'S RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING (AROUND 2-4 AM TONIGHT). WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST
THEREAFTER, LEADING TO A COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. INITIAL WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE DON'T
LOOK TO BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT, BUT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A
1027MB SURFACE HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA/TEXAS.
..SUNDAY
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY (LOWLAND HIGHS LOWER 70S, 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL). MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL FAVOR MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES, INCLUDING WEST EL PASO.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
THERE. MORE BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA ALONG I-10 THAT AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE RETURN UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS
AND PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER BACK UP TO AROUND 0.8" SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVERAGE AND A VERY SLIM (10-20%)
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS MAINLY
FOR EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
VERY LIGHT (<0.05").
..MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WIND
SPEEDS DOWN OVER THE TIMEFRAME, SO MINIMAL WEATHER THREATS.
MARGINAL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
VERY SPOTTY RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN (SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
BLACK RANGE) OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY.
..WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING
MORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MIDWEEK. WE MAY NEED WIND
HEADLINES DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC LOW
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WELL TO OUR NORTH THUS NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WARM, DRY, AND
BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH UNLIMITED SURFACE VIS. FROPA
TONIGHT BETWEEN 07-10Z. WIND SHIFT TO 010-060 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN 070-110 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES PRIMARILY
SKC-FEW250 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, WITH RED FLAG WARNING OUT UNTIL 8
PM THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT TO NORTH AND
THEN TO EAST SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING. CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST AS QUICK, BRIEF
MOISTURE INTRUSION OCCURS. THEN BACK TO DRY, BREEZY AFTERNOONS
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL AGAIN
BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
MIN RHS: LOWLANDS 10-15% TODAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 15-30%
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOWERING AGAIN FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
MOUNTAINS 13-23% TODAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 25-40% SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, THEN LOWERING AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
VENT RATES EXCELLENT TODAY, THEN GOOD-VERY GOOD SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 76 50 72 / 0 0 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA 48 69 45 66 / 0 0 0 40
LAS CRUCES 45 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 43 74 42 74 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 29 53 28 54 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 73 45 72 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 40 71 43 67 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 46 78 46 73 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 41 76 49 72 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 76 53 71 / 0 0 0 20
DELL CITY 45 72 42 69 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 53 79 50 74 / 0 0 0 40
LOMA LINDA 45 68 44 64 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 50 77 51 72 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA TERESA 48 74 49 70 / 0 0 0 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 75 49 72 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 43 75 43 72 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 45 78 43 75 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 49 79 51 73 / 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 44 72 45 70 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 30 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 31 64 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 34 61 32 59 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 30 66 33 65 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 41 71 43 70 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 42 74 40 72 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 34 72 38 69 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 38 73 40 69 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 37 79 44 75 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 37 75 43 72 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 41 71 43 67 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 45 78 50 72 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 43 76 48 71 / 0 0 0 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 77 49 72 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 46 74 49 69 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page