564
FXUS64 KEPZ 172337
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
437 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 435 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL RANG FROM 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH MOST DAYS BEING A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
I'M NOT COMPLAINING, BUT THIS STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST COAST AND TO
OUR EAST IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT AND LOTS OF COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE. FOR US, WE ARE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEM WHICH GIVES
US A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND OCCASIONALLY THE COOLER AIR TO THE
EAST WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION. ONE OF THOSE THOSE TIMES WILL BE
TONIGHT, WHEN OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE THREE OR FOUR DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS,
BUT HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR MONDAY THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN AND OUR SURFACE WINDS
WILL SWING BACK AROUND TO THE WEST WHICH WILL GIVE US 3 TO 5
DEGREES OF WARMING. BUT THEN JUST AS QUICKLY, ON TUESDAY THE
COOLER AIR TO OUR EAST WILL PUSH IN AGAIN AND THAT WILL DROP
TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THEN ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REGAINS SOME
STRENGTH AND MOVES CLOSER TO OUR REGION WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMP 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THOSE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE
WILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND IT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE (FINALLY) BACK INTO OUR
AREA. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS, ACROSS THE REGION, THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES SKC.
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
OUR STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS US PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOL AIR TO OUR EAST WILL
OCCASIONALLY SLIP INTO THE REGION AND BRIEFLY FLIP OUR SURFACE
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT THE WINDS
WILL JUST AS QUICKLY JUMP BACK TO WEST THE NEXT DAY. NO REALLY
STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY BREEZING
WINDS ON TUESDAY AS THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN. MIN RH'S ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN
AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE MIN RH'S CREEP
A LITTLE HIGHER EACH DAY, BUT BACK TO A LITTLE DRIER CONDITIONS TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 31 60 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 24 58 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 26 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 24 57 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 20 42 27 42 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 59 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 29 60 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 27 60 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 27 61 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 32 58 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 18 60 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 26 63 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 28 52 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 26 60 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 27 57 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 31 59 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 23 57 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 24 61 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 27 60 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 24 55 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 21 58 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 20 52 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 19 50 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 21 60 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 30 60 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 23 57 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 25 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 26 60 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 25 64 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 26 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 30 58 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 26 62 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 25 61 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 27 62 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 33 62 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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