612
FXUS64 KEPZ 140431
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1031 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS.
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER AREA MOUNTAINS MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX SATURDAY MORNING.
- MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FAVORING WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT-TERM AS AN
UPPER LOW SCOOTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. A TRAILING FRONT WILL KEEP
MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES JUST EAST OF OUR AREA FOR WED. DRIER AIR
UNDERNEATH THE LOW WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH WSW WINDS OF 10-
20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT N AND E DURING
THE DAY ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS THAN WED. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES THU EVENING FROM THE NE, BRINGING STRONG
E WINDS TO THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS MORE IN-LINE WITH WHAT WE TEND TO SEE IN
THE MIDDLE OF WINTER (1045MB-ISH). THIS WILL RESULT IN AN IMPRESSIVE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WEST
MTN SLOPES WILL SEE THE GUSTIEST WINDS, REACHING 60 MPH OR HIGHER
FOR PEAK GUSTS. GENERALLY 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE MODELED
WITH A POCKET OF LIGHTER WINDS FROM LAS CRUCES UP TO HOLLOMAN AFB.
NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH THAT'S IN EFFECT
THU NIGHT-FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST AN ADVISORY AT SOME POINT WED WITH MORE ADVISORIES POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT THU
INTO FRI MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS LASTING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING DUST CONCERNS COMING OUT OF E
NM AND W TX, BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE HIGH WINDS.
A LOBE OF ENERGY IS MODELED TO BREAK OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW ON THU,
PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. LOW-
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN THU NIGHT FOR FAR WEST TX, LASTING
THROUGH FRI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DRIFT NW INTO SAT.
HUDSPETH COUNTY IS FORECAST TO SEE THE MOST RAIN WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS (0.25-0.5" FOR NBM 50TH %-ILE
THROUGH FRI, 1.5-2.5" FOR 90TH %-ILE). ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN
BE SEEN, MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN HUDSPETH. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH
AS YOU HEAD N AND W. THE MUCH COOLER TEMPS MAY RESULT IN AN EARLY-
SEASON RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN SAT AM IF THE MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED FAR ENOUGH NORTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPS.
THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF BAJA SHOULD BE PICKED UP BY A PASSING UPPER
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH ON SUN, SHOVING MOST OF THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD, BUT LEAVING SOME OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS REMNANT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SCOOPED UP BY THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW INTO
MIDWEEK, BRINGING MORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO END THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FOR THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TO UNSEASONABLY COOL LEVELS (HIGHS 15-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BEHIND THU NIGHT'S FRONT. HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60F FOR THE LOWLANDS FRI AND SAT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONGOING. IT'LL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY FALL WITH
SOME SPOTS EXPECTED TO SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON SAT OR
SUN AM AS WINDS CALM DOWN. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AOB 8KTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FROM SW, GUSTING TO
20-25KTS BY 18Z. MAINLY SKC THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ERCS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO GOOD
VENT RATES. MIN RH 25-35% FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT AND STRONG OVERNIGHT WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND WEST SLOPES. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF LNF, WHICH MAY LEAD TO DOWNED
TREES. FRIDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLD, WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. UPPER ELEVATIONS OF LNF MAY ALSO SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
ON SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS 0.01-0.10" OVER NM
MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 82 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 82 56 79 / 20 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 55 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 79 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 56 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 78 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 67 41 71 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 54 78 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 73 46 77 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 61 85 57 81 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 89 62 87 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 58 75 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 62 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 56 78 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 80 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 82 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 79 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 50 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 48 68 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 70 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 76 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 77 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 66 35 72 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 71 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 53 73 43 78 / 20 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 49 68 40 73 / 30 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 71 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 80 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 73 47 74 / 10 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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