417
FXUS64 KEPZ 120441
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
941 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 920 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY MONDAY
NIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA IS SCOOPING UP A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THE
BORDERLAND FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN STILL.
SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE WITH
GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND LIGHT PRECIP RATES.
THE LOW EJECTS TO THE EAST ON TUE AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES
OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AROUND A REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST
COAST. A MODEST BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES FOR WED, BRINGING SOME
BREEZY E-NE WINDS BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE
COLDER AIR WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST. A SECOND BACKDOOR/SIDEDOOR
FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK (FRI/SAT) WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND HOW FAR
WEST IT REACHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT (AOB 10 MPH)
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK UNDER FAIR SKIES. AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY ON
MON, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WARMING A
BIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER
SIDE THROUGH TUE AM, REACHING THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AOB 10KTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO THE UPPER TEENS FOR KDMN.
MID CLOUDS ARE FADING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, BUT ARE MODELED TO
INCREASE AGAIN IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR KELP
WITH CIGS AS LOW AS 070. NO PRECIP EXPECTED FOR ANY TERMINAL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM, LEVELING OFF MID-WEEK.
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE 15 TO 25 THOUGH A LITTLE BIT
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WELL, TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 10 MPH EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY. VENTING WILL RANGE POOR TO FAIR AS A RESULT OF THE
WEAK WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 33 55 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 30 51 33 55 / 0 10 20 10
LAS CRUCES 26 53 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 24 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 19 41 23 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 27 53 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 26 52 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 28 55 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 54 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 34 55 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 22 55 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 57 32 61 / 0 10 20 10
LOMA LINDA 31 50 32 53 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 30 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 28 54 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 32 55 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 21 54 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 23 58 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 29 55 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 26 53 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 21 52 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 20 52 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 19 48 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 18 50 21 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 27 54 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 21 55 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 20 52 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 25 53 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 58 22 61 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 23 55 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 28 53 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 26 54 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 26 53 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 24 53 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 30 50 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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