107
FXUS64 KEPZ 142328
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
528 PM MDT FRI MAY 14 2021
..UPDATE FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK TSRA OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX EXPECTED THIS EVENING,
BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AT KTCS/KDMN. KEPT VCTS OUT
OF THESE SITES AS WELL AS KELP DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL AMEND
TAF IF NECESSARY, BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A DIRECT TS HIT TO
TAF SITES. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
3 HOURS, THEN PREVAILING 230-260 AT 06-10KT OVERNIGHT. SKIES SCT-
BKN110 BKN200, REMAINING CLOUDY THROUGH 06Z. SKIES CLEARING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH FEW- SCT120 AND MUCH LOWER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
PREV DISCUSSION...213 PM MDT FRI MAY 14 2021
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE EVENING EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A
COUPLE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
GENERALLY DRY, BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY GOING IN THE BLACK RANGE AND A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO HELP GET OTHER STORMS GOING THIS
EARLY EVENING. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WE WILL SEE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOWS FROM THE AFTERNOON
STORMS WILL HELP FIRE OFF OTHER STORMS LATER THIS EVENING. LIKE WE
SAW IN EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES YESTERDAY, THE MAIN THREAT THIS
EVENING WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL, BUT AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS.
BY TONIGHT THE THE STORMS WILL DIE DOWN AND THE WINDS WILL SLOW.
WE WILL SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT THEY TOO WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE SO THAT BY THE SATURDAY EARLY AM WE WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. OUR WINDS (ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN) WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH. OUR LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL RUN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST, BUT
SO WILL MOST OF THE MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
HELP FIRE OFF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN EASTERN HUDSPETH AND
EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES. OUTFLOW WINDS COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE, BUT
NOT AS LIKELY AS THEY ARE TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL RUN VERY NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW ENTERING INTO NORTHERN CA TODAY WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO BE EAST OF
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING. LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING THAT
LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE
LOWLANDS BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY, AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES. EVEN WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH, NEVER TAP ANY MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT, BUT
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, SOME MOISTURE COULD WRAP AROUND
AND BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NORTH AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WARMS TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARD 90 DEGREES WHERE THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
FIRE WEATHER
WE HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO HELP KICK OFF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESES STORMS. WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BUT MIN RH'S WILL BE NEAR 10% WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE AND 10 TO 20% EAST OF THE RIVER. THEN ON SUNDAY,
EVEN DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MIN RH'S IN
THE LOWLANDS WILL BE WELL BELOW 10% IN THE LOWLANDS AND AROUND 12
TO 15% IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WINDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE BREEZY, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. SO WE WILL
BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY, BUT RIGHT
NOW WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT. WE WILL AGAIN BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT IT WON'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
SO I'M NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL AGAIN BE
BREEZY ON TUESDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIN
RH'S. FOR WEDNESDAY, WE WILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO, WE WILL STILL BE DRY, BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MIN RH'S RUNNING FROM 10 TO 15% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT
WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 91 66 91 / 40 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 84 58 85 / 50 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 60 88 56 90 / 40 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 87 57 88 / 50 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 64 45 64 / 50 20 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 87 57 88 / 30 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 80 53 78 / 20 0 0 0
DEMING 57 90 53 88 / 30 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 58 87 52 85 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 90 65 89 / 30 0 0 0
DELL CITY 57 88 58 89 / 50 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 59 92 60 91 / 40 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 58 82 60 82 / 40 0 10 0
FABENS 63 91 63 90 / 40 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 61 88 57 87 / 30 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 88 63 87 / 50 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 87 56 86 / 50 0 0 0
HATCH 59 89 59 88 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 89 59 87 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 87 60 87 / 50 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 76 52 77 / 40 30 20 0
MESCALERO 48 75 49 76 / 40 20 10 0
TIMBERON 45 73 46 74 / 50 10 10 0
WINSTON 44 80 43 81 / 30 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 54 85 54 85 / 30 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 57 87 56 86 / 40 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 81 41 80 / 20 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 83 47 82 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 47 89 43 87 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 54 82 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 54 82 53 82 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 58 88 51 86 / 20 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 87 52 86 / 20 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 87 53 85 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 82 52 80 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
15/26/30
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