813
FXUS64 KEPZ 051748
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1148 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. PATCHY BLOWING DUST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AFTER TODAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEK. LOWLAND TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE
LOWER 90S BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
UPPER LOW JUST SW OF LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SUB-TROPICAL
JET JUST AHEAD OF IT LYING SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA.
BROAD BAND OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA. THIS PLUME IS MOSTLY MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IS
SLOWLY MOISTENING DOWN. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THE PACIFIC
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST
WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY, INCREASING FROM THE WEST
AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON LEVEL OF IMPACT; UNFORTUNATELY HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY OBSCURE SATELLITE VIEW OF ANY PLUMES.
LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS AN OPEN TROUGH BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MAIN POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN US THEN BREAKS OFF LOW NEAR THE NORTHER BAJA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE A CONTINENTAL COOL FRONT LIES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO. DISTURBANCE ALOFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
QUICKLY DROPS DOWN TO COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PHASES IN
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL FINALLY GIVE THE
CONTINENTAL FRONT ITS PUSH AND MOVES TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A BACKDOOR FRONT. MODELS SHOW WIND SHIFT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY OUT
TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE COLD
ADVECTION; IN FACT 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY. A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD (25-30 MPH) POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THIS FRONT.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...AFOREMENTIONED BAJA LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO; OVER THE SONORAN DESERT THURSDAY AND THE
CHIHUAHUAN DESERT FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH PLACE THE LOW NEAR THE BIG
BEND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE OTHER MODELS LAGGING FURTHER
SOUTHWEST. WOULDN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER WEST TEXAS ZONES
FRIDAY, BUT NOT REFLECTED IN GRIDS YET. OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL (5-10 DEGREES).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT100
BKN-OVC300. ISOLATED BKN050 -SHRA, MAINLY WEST OF RG VALLEY. MOST
SHOWERS DONE BY 00Z. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AFTER 18Z TO WEST 15-
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
AFTER 03Z. SOME BLOWING DUST LIKELY ACROSS HIDALGO, LUNA, DONA ANA,
AND EL PASO COUNTIES FROM 19-23Z, WITH PATCHY 3-5SM BLDU POSSIBLE.
KELP, KDMN, AND KLRU TAF SITES COULD ALL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY
FROM THE BLOWING DUST, BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FIRE CONCERNS AFTER TODAY. GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ELEVATE FIRE CONDITIONS SOME, BUT MIN HUMIDITIES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 15% THRESHOLD. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXPECTED, THOUGH EXPECT SHARP WIND SHIFTS TO EAST/NORTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY,
THOUGH WETTING RAIN CHANCES PRETTY LOW. NO OTHER PRECIP EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 18-25% THIS AFTERNOON, THEN 8-15% WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOUNTAINS 30-45% THIS AFTERNOON, THEN 12-23% WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY, EXCEPT THURSDAY AT GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 76 45 75 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 46 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 75 45 76 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 53 30 56 / 10 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 76 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 66 41 69 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 45 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 73 43 77 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 77 44 76 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 56 83 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 50 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 74 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 66 33 67 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 37 64 34 66 / 10 0 0 10
TIMBERON 37 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 33 69 35 70 / 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 44 74 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 77 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 34 68 35 72 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 70 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 38 74 39 79 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 33 69 36 74 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 70 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 74 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 74 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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