806
FXUS64 KEPZ 190445
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1045 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S TO LOWER 100S, WHICH WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. DRY
CONDITIONS SPREAD AREA WIDE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER
OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY RECYCLED MOISTURE UNDER THIS UPPER HIGH.
THE MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF AUGUST. LOWLAND HIGHS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 98-102 DEGREE RANGE WILL RUN 8-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST AND NEAR DAILY RECORDS. CURRENTLY NO
DAILY RECORD FOR EL PASO IN THE FORECAST, BUT WE'RE ONLY 1-2
DEGREES OFF MOST DAYS GOING FORWARD.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SHORT-TERM MODELS RESOLVE AN AXIS OF
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE (PWS 1.0-1.2") ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THIS WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED (20-30%
COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND BLACK RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CLOUD-LAYER FLOW OUT OF THE NE WILL PROMOTE SLOW STORM PROGRESSION
TOWARD THE SW. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS GRANT, SIERRA, AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES, WITH SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS
AND POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE EL PASO/LAS
CRUCES AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH. ISOLATED CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH NO CHANCES FOR LOWLAND ZONES.
UPPER HIGH DRIFTS EAST DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO A NEAR-TOTAL SHUT OFF OF MOISTURE
FLOW AND THUS THE END OF STORM CHANCES AREA WIDE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 0.8-1.0" WILL FALL BELOW THE CLIMATE NORMAL AND
STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW WITHIN THE 400-600MB LAYER ALOFT WILL HINDER
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE PUSHED
WEST ACROSS ARIZONA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LATE-AUGUST DRYNESS AND HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES SKC-FEW250 OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS 250-300 AOB 5 KNOTS. LIGHT SSE FLOW TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 150-190 AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. ISOLATED TSRA
ACROSS SW NM. CONSIDERED INCLUDING PROB30 TS FOR KTCS/KDMN THIS
CYCLE, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH. KELP/KLRU WILL REMAIN DRY
TOMORROW WITH A LOW RISK FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN
00-06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THERE
WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WED AND
BRING BACK SOME MODEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FOR WED
AND THU, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOME ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONTO THE LOWLANDS FROM GUSTY OUTFLOWS.
STORM COVERAGE BECOMES MINIMAL TO NONE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE
WEST INTO AZ. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. RH'S WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 20S/30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VENT RATES FAIR TO GOOD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 100 69 100 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 70 99 72 99 / 0 10 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 53 76 54 76 / 0 20 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 99 72 99 / 0 10 10 10
SILVER CITY 64 92 63 92 / 0 40 20 40
DEMING 68 100 70 101 / 0 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 70 98 69 99 / 0 30 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 103 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 93 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 70 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 69 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 70 100 71 100 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 70 103 72 103 / 0 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 71 100 74 102 / 0 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 68 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 89 60 88 / 0 30 10 30
MESCALERO 57 87 58 87 / 0 20 10 60
TIMBERON 55 85 57 86 / 0 10 0 30
WINSTON 61 91 62 90 / 0 20 20 50
HILLSBORO 67 98 69 98 / 0 20 20 20
SPACEPORT 68 99 69 99 / 0 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 90 58 91 / 0 40 10 60
HURLEY 64 94 64 95 / 0 30 20 30
CLIFF 67 98 66 98 / 0 40 10 50
MULE CREEK 66 94 64 94 / 10 60 20 40
FAYWOOD 66 95 67 95 / 0 20 20 30
ANIMAS 70 98 70 99 / 0 20 20 10
HACHITA 68 97 69 98 / 0 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 96 68 98 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 64 92 65 93 / 10 20 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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