462
FXUS64 KEPZ 301810
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1210 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
- LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH BREEZY WINDS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME BREEZINESS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS EACH AFTERNOON.
- PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING NORTHERN NM TODAY, BUT WITH THE
RECENT MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT, WE WILL SEE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE
MOVING AND WE ARE DRYING OUT SO I DON'T THINK FLOODING WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IT STALLS OUT
AND WE KEEP AN ELONGATED TROUGH THROUGH EASTERN AREAS AND A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS RESULTS IN A REX BLOCK WITH
OUR AREA IN THE NE FLOW SIDE. THIS WILL BRING BACK SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COOL FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NBM SEEMED PRETTY
HIGH FOR POPS OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS, BUT WITH THE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW, THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN SACS. TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT
GET OUT OF THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GET
BREEZY AS WELL, WITH THE FOCUS ON THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
OUT ON THE LORDSBURG PLAYA.
THE REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWN BY MONDAY AS WE START TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH QPF AMOUNTS. NBM POPS SEEM REASONABLE HERE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO REACH
80 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT 70S STILL LOOK
WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SCT-BKN040-060 BKN100-120 AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR SOUTH, BUT KEPT
MENTION OUT AT KDMN, KLRU, KELP. FURTHER NORTH THERE IS ALREADY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SIERRA
COUNTY AND KTCS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SKC-SCT100 AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-20G30KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER 02Z THEY WILL DECREASE TO AOB 12KTS AND START
SHIFTING TO THE N TO NE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK. RH'S WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 35% DURING THIS PERIOD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
MOVES IN LATE MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 54 77 57 72 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 74 52 69 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 51 76 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 75 52 74 / 10 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 55 38 51 / 10 10 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 74 54 73 / 10 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 47 71 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 77 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 75 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 77 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 76 56 71 / 0 0 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 54 82 57 78 / 0 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 50 70 51 66 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 79 55 73 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 52 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 77 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 76 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 53 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 78 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 74 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 66 44 59 / 10 20 20 30
MESCALERO 42 65 43 61 / 10 10 20 10
TIMBERON 40 62 42 60 / 10 10 10 10
WINSTON 44 68 45 67 / 0 10 10 0
HILLSBORO 51 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 49 75 51 75 / 10 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 72 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 73 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 46 76 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 72 52 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 51 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 76 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 76 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 72 53 69 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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