905
FXUS64 KEPZ 212324
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
424 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 420 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON CHRISTMAS AND BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS COME
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH MON/WED/FRI. EVEN WITH THIS PATTERN, WE END UP ON THE
SOUTH END OF THESE SYSTEMS WHICH GENERALLY LEADS TO OCCASIONAL
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE GFS/EC HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF EACH TROUGH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS AND MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT BOTH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUPPORTED FROM THE 00Z RUNS. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN
THE STRENGTH THOUGH, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE FRIDAY ONE.
WITH EACH SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, THE BORDERLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EVEN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY. LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND THEN DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL THAT SYSTEM PASSES
ON CHRISTMAS. GFS AND EC LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER WITH H85 WINDS AND
GRADIENT, SO DID RAISE THE NBM WINDS TOWARD THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND HAVE A SOLID BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY DAY. STILL DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED.
FOR THE SYSTEM FRI, OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND DEVELOPS
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHERN NM WHILE THE EC IS A FASTER
MOVING OPEN WAVE WITH NOT AS MUCH AMPLITUDE. LOOKING AT THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE OPERATIONAL SEEMS TO BE ON THE EXTREME END
AND WHILE IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, DIDN'T GO AS
STRONG AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS, BUT DID GO A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
THE NBM. THIS FRIDAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME MODEST MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WITH ANY ACCUMULATION BEING VERY LIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER. SKIES
SKC-FEW250. WINDS GENERALLY W-NW AND LIGHT THROUGH 18Z...THEN
5-10KTS TOMORROW AFT 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE WARM AND DRY(RH'S IN THE TEENS) WITH
LIGHT WINDS...SO NO REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS AND BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK MAINLY FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR
SUN, IMPROVING TO FAIR TO GOOD MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 37 70 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 40 67 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 69 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 31 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 51 33 46 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 37 66 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 27 72 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 27 70 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 35 67 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 28 69 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 72 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 62 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 33 70 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 34 67 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 37 68 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 23 67 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 71 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 32 73 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 33 68 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 33 65 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 29 61 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 26 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 25 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 32 65 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 29 67 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 14 67 19 63 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 28 67 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 19 69 23 67 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 16 66 21 63 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 29 67 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 27 72 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 24 71 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 32 72 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 67 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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