252
FXUS64 KEPZ 030504
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1004 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
- RECORD WARMTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY, 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO
CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
ABNORMAL WARMTH ROLLS ON INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN THREATEN DAILY RECORDS, WITH HIGHS IN LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-TO-MID 80S. JET FLOW ALOFT DIPS SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING THE LEE SURFACE LOW WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING
WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE MOST COMMON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
BLOWING DUST GIVEN THE LOWER-END BREEZINESS, BUT COULD SEE SOME
LOCALIZED DUST NEAR THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
WE'LL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN AFTERNOON WINDS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
WEAKER, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOME "COOLER" AIR OUT OF THE NORTH WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES, STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TYPICAL OF SPRING IN THE BORDERLAND
CONTINUES ON THURSDAY. PACIFIC JET STREAK ALOFT WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL ONCE AGAIN INDUCE A
DEEPER LEE SURFACE LOW AND THUS STRONGER WINDS LOCALLY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT BREEZY NONETHELESS.
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND KNOCKS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
(LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S).
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION THIS PACKAGE SURROUNDS THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKEND'S PACIFIC LOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
EVIDENCE OF SUBSEQUENT JET STREAKS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
ALLOWING IT TO BREAK OFF OF THE PRIMARY POLAR JET AND RETROGRADE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (MARCH
8-11 TIMEFRAME). MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THUS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS WOULD ALSO BE A PATTERN WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW POPS (30-40%) FOR MOST OF
THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
WINDS 250-280 AT 04-08 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, THEN BREEZY WSW WINDS
240-270 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF S NM MID-AFTERNOON. SKIES SKC-FEW250 TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN
STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE BORDERLAND, AND EVEN AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ERCS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ELEVATED (50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE) FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 85 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 82 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 81 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 81 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 57 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 81 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 72 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 45 83 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 45 79 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 83 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 44 85 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 89 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 51 87 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 48 82 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 82 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 82 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 45 85 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 85 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 81 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 72 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 45 69 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 67 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 38 72 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 48 78 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 80 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 70 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 44 75 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 42 78 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 73 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 75 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 82 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 81 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 81 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 76 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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