492
FXUS64 KEPZ 131741 AAB
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1141 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
- SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- BLOWING DUST/POOR VISIBILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
JUST INLAND OVER THE US WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN
ANALYSIS OF THIS MORNING DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY AROUND MID MORNING. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT, SOUTHWEST
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE BORDERLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME, A STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO
DOWN TO 987MB BY THE GFS AND 991 BY ECMWF. THE COMBINATION OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND DEEPENING LEE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A FEW 70 MPH GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND THIS IS SUPPORT WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW A
MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION AROUND THE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. THE
INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR VERY STRONG WINDS JUST EAST OF THE ORGAN,
FRANKLIN, AND SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH, WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE MILE TO AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT
TIMES. A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
STARTING AT 3PM UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT.
AS THE PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GILA/BLACK RANGE, THERE WILL
BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLDEST AIR
LAGGING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES EAST LATE TONIGHT, SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START AROUND
7,000 FT LATE THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO AROUND 5,000 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE BLACK/GILA RANGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR GILA/BLACK RANGE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ABOUT 7,000 FEET AND WILL GO IN EFFECT AT 9PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 9AM FRIDAY MORNING. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE NORTHWEST OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE HEELS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY BRING CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN
ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL
BUILD INTO THE BORDERLAND ON SUNDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL COMES
ONSHORE OVER THE US WEST COAST. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON
MONDAY, THEN BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY WINDY ON TUESDAY
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THE NEED OF SOME ADVISORIES FOR WIND AND
DUST IF RUN TO RUN MODELS CONSISTENCY HOLDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
COMPLEX WEATHER SETUP HEADING INTO THIS TAF CYCLE AS AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH PUSHES EWD FROM THE PACIFIC. SWLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE AFTN LEADING TO BLDU, PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND KDMN
AND KLRU. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS NEAR TERMINALS. LLWS
WILL BE PRESENT AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR KDMN BTWN 14/05Z
AND 14/08Z. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NM, ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS WILL
FOLLOW, FAVORING WRN AND CENTRL AREAS. DIRECT HITS TO TERMINALS
WILL RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, WITH MORE LCL
IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PEAK BTWN 14/08Z AND 04/12Z,
DIMINISHING AFT SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
AND LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, WHERE A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT START AT NOON TODAY UNTIL 7PM. MIN RH
VALUES WILL SEE A SUBTLE REBOUND WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20S IN
THE LOWLANDS AND 30S AND ABOVE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LEADING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE
AREA, BUT MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ON SUNDAY AND
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LOWLAND ON MONDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 41 58 39 / 0 30 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 72 37 55 34 / 0 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 71 32 52 31 / 0 30 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 71 30 55 28 / 0 30 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 48 15 32 17 / 0 30 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 35 55 33 / 0 60 0 20
SILVER CITY 62 24 40 26 / 40 80 10 50
DEMING 72 32 53 31 / 10 50 0 30
LORDSBURG 69 28 49 29 / 20 70 10 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 41 55 39 / 0 30 10 20
DELL CITY 74 38 57 34 / 0 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 78 41 62 37 / 0 20 10 20
LOMA LINDA 66 33 49 33 / 0 30 10 20
FABENS 76 40 58 37 / 0 30 10 20
SANTA TERESA 72 36 54 35 / 0 30 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 38 54 37 / 0 30 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 70 32 53 30 / 0 40 0 20
HATCH 73 33 56 32 / 0 50 0 30
COLUMBUS 74 36 55 36 / 0 40 0 30
OROGRANDE 70 35 53 32 / 0 30 10 20
MAYHILL 61 22 45 23 / 0 30 10 10
MESCALERO 59 19 43 20 / 0 40 10 20
TIMBERON 57 17 41 18 / 0 30 10 20
WINSTON 61 18 45 20 / 10 70 0 30
HILLSBORO 67 28 51 28 / 10 60 10 30
SPACEPORT 69 30 56 26 / 0 50 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 60 20 41 24 / 50 80 20 50
HURLEY 64 25 44 26 / 20 70 0 50
CLIFF 67 22 48 25 / 40 80 10 60
MULE CREEK 62 24 42 27 / 50 90 20 70
FAYWOOD 64 27 45 29 / 20 70 0 40
ANIMAS 69 30 53 30 / 10 70 10 40
HACHITA 69 30 52 29 / 10 60 10 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 31 54 33 / 0 50 0 40
CLOVERDALE 62 29 47 33 / 10 60 10 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN
GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN
BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FORECASTER...99
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