416
FXUS64 KEPZ 121718
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1118 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THEN THEY'LL CLIMB QUICKLY NEXT
WEEK TO RECORD LEVELS.
- BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, AND
GUSTIER WINDS SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER TO NEAR
CRITICAL AS HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT. NO CHANCE
OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. FRIDAY'S WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, MAINLY 5-15MPH, BUT SATURDAY WE WILL GET INTO
STRONGER WINDS OUT OF THE WSW IN THE 15-30MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A DAY WITH DUST PRODUCTS NEEDED, JUST A HAZY AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES ADDED
ON FOR SATURDAY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR EL PASO IS 85 ON SATURDAY AND
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BROKEN.
SOME CHANGES START SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH DROPS
SSE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
STARTING SUN AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY ACROSS THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TIMING. GFS AND IT'S ENSEMBLES ARE FASTER THAN THE EC AND IT'S
ENSEMBLES. MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. FOR NOW
THE NBM LOOKS REASONABLE WITH DROPPING HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES IN
THE NE TO NEARLY SIMILAR TO SAT OUT WEST. NO MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO PRECIP WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
MOVING IN IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO
NEAR 0C OVER THE EAST. ALSO WILL BE A WINDY NIGHT ON THE WEST
SLOPES SUN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES OUT WEST TO
ANOTHER 15 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING TUE AND CONTINUE INTO THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WEST
AND SHIFTS INTO THE YUMA AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
THREATEN RECORDS BY THU.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
P6SM SKC-FEW250 WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. ONLY AREA
WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS WILL BE KTCS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
10-15KTS POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES BUT LIGHT
WINDS. CONCERNS PICK UP FOR THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WINDS PICK UP AND RH'S FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, EVEN FOR AREA MOUNTAINS. STRONGEST WINDS
ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN, BUT WILL BE
MARGINALLY CRITICAL SAT AFTERNOON. ERC'S GETTING WORSE OVER THE
EAST QUICKLY AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH ABQ AND SWCC, HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO GO INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN
CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES COME
FOR LATER SUN INTO MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS SOME RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BIG OF A CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 84 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 44 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 42 80 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 58 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 81 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 75 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 40 83 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 80 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 38 84 44 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 42 85 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 75 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 46 84 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 44 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 81 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 40 85 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 44 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 42 80 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 36 70 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 32 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 30 75 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 81 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 74 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 31 80 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 77 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 81 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 41 80 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 82 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 76 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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