445
FXUS64 KEPZ 210420
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1020 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
- MAINLY DRY, SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST TEXAS THURSDAY, SACRAMENTO
MTNS SATURDAY/SUNDAY, AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
MAIN LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN US, WITH MAIN UPPER
LOW JUST OFF THE SOCAL COAST. SECOND, DISSIPATING UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA. AHEAD OF THESE LOWS, MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES WITH NICE BIT OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER MOST OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE A
SECONDARY DRY-LINE SITUATED NEAR THE CONT DIVIDE WILL STILL BE
AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, LIKELY ALLOWING SOME MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HI- RES
MEMBERS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION AGAIN OVER EL PASO, HUDSPETH, AND
SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES, AND A FEW MEMBERS EVEN SHOW SOME OVER
SOUTHERN LUNA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES (AGAIN), SO COULD LOOK VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY'S CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE, WEAKER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS THE SOCAL UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY. THIS INITIALLY SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY BUT
MOISTURE STARTS INFILTRATING BACK IN THE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACS. FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA, LOWER MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
AREA SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CHANCES OF RAIN. MODELS DO SHOW MODEST
MOISTURE INCREASE ON MONDAY, AND DESPITE THE WEAK RIDGING, SOME QPF
APPEARS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING. NEXT PACIFIC LOW TRACKS INTO
ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
AS USUAL, THIS WILL RACE THE DIURNAL HEATING CLOCK, BUT A CHANCE OF
RAIN A DECENT BET OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT-BKN100 BKN-OVC250.
SURFACE WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 8-12 KNOTS, INCREASING TO WEST 12-
17G27 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO ON
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND MIN RH 8 TO 14%.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TYPICAL MID MAY
TEMPERATURES. VERY SIMILAR WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL IMPROVE FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST THIS WEEKEND. MIN RH WILL BE
IN THE 20-30% RANGE, WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND CLOUDCROFT/RUIDOSO
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, LEADING TO A RISK OF NEW LIGHTNING STARTS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. GILA NF WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FUEL STATUS SHOWS ERCS REACHING THE
90TH PERCENTILE AND WILL REMAIN AROUND THAT THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 87 65 89 / 10 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 82 55 85 / 10 20 20 0
LAS CRUCES 56 85 55 87 / 10 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 85 57 88 / 0 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 65 43 67 / 0 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 77 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 88 55 89 / 0 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 54 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 86 64 87 / 10 20 20 0
DELL CITY 54 86 55 89 / 10 20 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 90 60 91 / 10 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 57 80 58 82 / 10 20 20 0
FABENS 60 88 60 90 / 10 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 58 85 58 87 / 10 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 86 64 89 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 85 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 88 62 89 / 0 20 10 0
OROGRANDE 54 84 54 86 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 77 49 79 / 0 10 10 10
MESCALERO 46 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 43 73 44 75 / 10 10 0 0
WINSTON 45 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 49 85 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 84 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 79 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 84 55 85 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 54 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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