150
FXUS64 KEPZ 011253
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
653 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
- STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE US-54
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY AND HOTTER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES. TRENDING WETTER FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THEN EXPANDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST, A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX.
AREAS E OF THE US-54 CORRIDOR WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN/STORM CHANCES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY, THEN
FOCUSING OVER THE SACS FRI/SAT. GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING
DUST FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THE EL PASO
AREA AND UPPER RGV, BUT WITH LOW IMPACTS.
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST STAY DRY AND WILL SEE DECREASING SW
WINDS THROUGH THU. VERY DRY AIR PUSHES INTO WESTERN NM FOR WED/THU
AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. THE MOISTURE PLUME
FIZZLES OUT LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO RE-
ESTABLISH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
LOW STORM CHANCES IN THE SACS THIS WEEKEND, BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND
HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH.
A MORE ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP AROUND THE HIGH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MOIST, SE FLOW REACHES FURTHER WEST
THROUGH S NM WITH STORM CHANCES FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
MTN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INVERTED TROUGHS, LIKE THE 18Z GFS SHOWS, MAY
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATER IN THE PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MONSOON HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK, WARMER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TODAY. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EAST EL PASO COUNTY CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS AT ELP ARE BELOW 20
PERCENT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ELP TONIGHT FROM MORE
DISTANT OUTFLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 650 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
LOWERING MINIMUM RH VALUES AND CONTINUED BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE GILA
AGAIN TODAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WEST, AND SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES EAST. PRECIP WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED
TO HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE EASTERN OTERO MESA TODAY, BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK TOWARDS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AGAIN
STARTING THURSDAY.
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 100
DEGREE MARK FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 98 74 99 / 10 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 64 90 65 91 / 20 30 10 20
LAS CRUCES 66 96 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 96 68 96 / 10 10 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 51 73 50 74 / 10 40 10 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 97 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 90 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 99 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 96 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 96 74 97 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 67 94 67 96 / 20 30 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 71 97 72 99 / 20 20 10 10
LOMA LINDA 66 89 67 91 / 10 20 10 20
FABENS 71 98 72 99 / 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 70 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 97 74 98 / 0 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 67 96 67 97 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 66 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 71 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 94 67 95 / 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 55 83 55 85 / 10 60 10 60
MESCALERO 54 84 54 85 / 10 30 10 50
TIMBERON 52 81 52 82 / 10 30 10 40
WINSTON 55 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 64 95 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 63 96 64 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 54 91 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 60 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 59 95 60 98 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 57 91 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 62 92 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 96 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 96 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 96 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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