630
FXUS64 KEPZ 072252
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
452 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- DRIER AND HOTTER TODAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MANY LOWLAND
AREAS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
- MOISTURE WILL OCCASIONALLY SEEP IN FROM THE EAST, GIVING THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
AN UL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON IN BETWEEN A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND WHILE DRIFTING EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AS A RESULT WITH MOST
LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL NUDGE EASTWARD, ALIGNING
ITSELF TO OUR NORTH BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
S/W TROUGH WILL CUT OUT AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
BE ENOUGH TO BRING LOW STORM CHANCES TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
BY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE TROUGH ALIGNED TO OUR NORTH, BREEZES WILL
PICK UP FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO THE HOTTEST POINT IN THE FORECAST
(FOR NOW). HEAT ADVISORIES ARE A GOOD BET WITH HIGHS PUSHING 105,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TEXAS RIO GRANDE VALLEY, INCLUDING EL PASO.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD FROM THE SOUTH TO FINISH OUT
THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT DIFFER IN
HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN SLIP IN BENEATH THE RIDGE. THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WHETHER OUR STRING OF 100
DEGREE DAYS CONTINUE WITH FURTHER WARMING OR IF WE WILL SEE SOME
MODEST RELIEF I.E. MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NBM HAS SPOTTY LOW POPS, AND THAT
IS WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT120 SCT-BKN250.
ISOLATED BKN090 -SHRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 02Z. SURFACE WINDS
WEST 12-17G25 KNOTS TIL 02Z, THEN VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MIN RH
VALUES NEAR 10% EACH AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS CLIMB 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH, NEARING 15 MPH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHEN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. VENT
CATEGORIES WILL GENERALLY RANGE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DAILY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 102 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 65 98 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 98 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 76 54 78 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 58 90 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 101 68 104 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 63 96 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 72 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 63 100 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 69 104 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 66 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 68 103 73 106 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 67 99 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 98 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 67 97 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 67 100 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 70 100 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 66 97 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 56 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 54 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 56 87 58 90 / 0 10 0 10
HILLSBORO 65 94 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 63 96 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 90 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 60 93 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 58 96 61 99 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 56 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 62 92 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 62 96 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 63 97 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 96 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 60 91 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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