907
FXUS64 KEPZ 181130
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
430 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THE WEEK AHEAD. OUR
NEXT CHANCE AT ANY PRECIPITATION DOESN'T COME UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND, WHEN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
- A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS WILL YO-YO
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. DAILY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 5 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE TO 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH MOST DAYS BEING
A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 857 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
OUR HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND EASTERN
U.S. TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, AND
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. IN THIS PATTERN WE
GENERALLY SIT UNDER THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE FRONT SIDE
OF THE RIDGE, WHERE DEEP AND DRY N TO NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL SLIP NW TO SE DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH, BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, WILL KEEP THESE TO OUR
EAST, WITH NO BIG EFFECTS. WHAT WE WILL SEE ARE A NUMBER OF LOW
LEVEL EAST PUSHES, IN THE FORM OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS. ONE CAME
IN TODAY, WE WILL SEE A SECOND ON MONDAY NIGHT, A THIRD ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND A FOURTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NONE OF THESE ARE
STRONG. NONE OF THEM BRING ANY MOISTURE, OR CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION, NONE OF THEM BRING VERY COLD AIR. NONE OF THEM
BRING STRONG WINDS. A PERFECT VISUAL ANALOGY FOR THIS SERIES OF
BACKDOOR FRONTS WOULD BE THAT WE ARE THE BEACH, AND EACH COLD
FRONT IS A SHALLOW WAVE WASHING IN OVERNIGHT, AND THEN WASHING
OUT THE NEXT DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO A BIT, BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY. DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5-8 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL, WITH DIPS OF 3-5 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONTS. OF COURSE
WE WILL ALSO SEE PERIODIC SHIFTING WINDS, WITH OVERNIGHT
EASTERLIES BEHIND THE FRONTS, AND THEN BACK TO SW AND W AS THE
FRONTS BACK OUT. THE FRONTAL INTRUSIONS DON'T APPEAR TO HAVE ANY
STRONG PUSH BEHIND THEM, THUS NOT A LOT OF GUSTY OR BREEZY EAST
WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTS.
LATE WEEK, AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE STATIC PATTERN DOES BEGIN TO
EVOLVE, WITH SOME DAMPENING OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE, THAT WILL
ALLOW SOME IMPULSE ENERGY TO CARVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DIG
SE TOWARD THE BORDERLAND. WE WILL SEE OUR WINDS ALOFT BACK TO W
AND SW. THIS SHOULD MEAN SOME ADDED HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ALLOWS A BAJA LOW TO OPEN AND SWING
THROUGH OUR REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN FOR SOME LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES,
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW OUT WEST, AND DRY WEATHER STILL IN
PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAN INTO THE DRY SOLUTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD BENEATH SKC-FEW250.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN
RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS EXCEPT FOR ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL SEE
MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EACH
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CAUSE POOR VENTING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 34 64 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 32 62 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 29 59 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 29 59 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 43 19 40 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 60 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 34 60 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 29 66 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 65 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 63 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 23 59 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 68 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 57 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 30 65 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 62 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 60 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 26 61 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 27 64 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 31 65 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 29 59 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 29 52 19 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 28 54 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 28 52 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 57 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 34 60 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 27 59 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 60 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 62 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 29 66 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 30 62 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 61 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 32 67 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 29 66 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 32 69 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 63 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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