367
FXUS64 KEPZ 032331
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
- WE WILL SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN IN THE GILA REGION AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA BORDER.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES COMMON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS
WEEK. WE WON'T BE AS HOT AS WE WERE LAST WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND WHERE THE MOISTURE MAKES AN IMPACT AS IT MEANDERS
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENTLY THE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PULL IN
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. LIKE YESTERDAY, THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT OUR
RAIN CHANCES. AND AGAIN LIKE YESTERDAY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GILA REGION. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL JUMP BACK NEAR OR ABOVE THE 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER AND THAT SLIGHTLY CLOSER PROXIMITY
WILL ALLOW OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CREEP UP A FEW MORE DEGREES
WHICH WILL ALLOW EL PASO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF TOWN
TO HIT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F). WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR SO
THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GILA REGION, BUT THE REST OF THE
AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT A LITTLE
NORTH TO NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO SPREAD TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE
LOWLANDS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON THURSDAY AND WE WILL SEE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL DROP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES, BUT STILL RUN AT OR ABOVE 100F IN THE LOWLANDS.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL AGAIN LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
AREA MOUNTAINS AND CONTINUE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE 100F MARK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY
FOCUSED OVER THE GILA REGION AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KDMN MAY HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WIND AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH VERY SIMILAR LOCATIONS AND
CONDITIONS AGAIN TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOWER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. WE
WILL HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER, BUT WINDS WON'T BE MUCH OF AN ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MIN RH'S OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA
MOUNTAINS. WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE LIGHT, BUT WE WILL SEE LOW END
GUSTY WINDS MOST AFTERNOONS FOR A FEW HOURS. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE GILA REGION AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
BORDER WHERE WE CAN SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THIS
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION. VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM
GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 105 75 102 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 99 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 70 102 70 100 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 101 71 100 / 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 56 78 53 77 / 0 20 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 102 72 99 / 10 10 40 10
SILVER CITY 64 94 63 92 / 20 40 30 40
DEMING 70 102 69 100 / 10 10 30 0
LORDSBURG 69 98 69 98 / 20 10 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 103 76 102 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 70 102 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 107 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 106 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 101 73 101 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 103 75 101 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 72 102 71 100 / 0 0 20 0
HATCH 71 102 71 103 / 0 0 30 0
COLUMBUS 74 103 73 101 / 10 0 20 0
OROGRANDE 71 101 70 99 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 61 89 58 87 / 0 10 0 20
MESCALERO 61 90 58 88 / 0 20 10 20
TIMBERON 57 87 56 86 / 0 10 10 10
WINSTON 63 93 62 90 / 10 20 40 30
HILLSBORO 69 100 69 97 / 10 10 30 10
SPACEPORT 69 102 69 99 / 0 0 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 94 59 91 / 10 50 40 70
HURLEY 66 97 65 95 / 10 40 30 20
CLIFF 67 101 66 98 / 20 50 30 40
MULE CREEK 64 95 64 93 / 20 50 30 30
FAYWOOD 67 97 67 94 / 10 20 30 10
ANIMAS 70 99 68 98 / 20 20 40 10
HACHITA 69 98 68 98 / 20 20 40 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 97 67 97 / 10 30 40 0
CLOVERDALE 65 91 63 91 / 30 40 60 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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