417
FXUS64 KEPZ 271129
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
529 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF OCTOBER WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BECOMING SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING
NW OVER EP WITH BUILDING CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA. CAMS,
PARTICULARLY THE HREF, ARE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT (1-3AM), PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY/HORIZON CITY AREA. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT (0.1-0.25"), BUT HIGH-END RAINFALL OF 1" IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE HREF. THE REFS IS MUCH MORE BEARISH ON RAIN CHANCES (~10%)
AND AMOUNTS IN EAST EL PASO OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING IS FORECAST BY SUNRISE WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND
LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE RGV. FOR TUE,
ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER, PUSHING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE EASTWARD AND
ENDING STORM CHANCES OTHER THAN ALONG THE HUDSPETH/CULBERSON LINE.
WINDS BECOME MODESTLY BREEZY FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. SIMILAR WX IS FORECAST ON WED AS THE FLOW ALOFT
TURNS SW, STARTING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTENSIFIES THROUGH THU AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, ESPECIALLY E OF THE RGV. WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE
TO REPEATED SHOWERS/STORMS. 90TH %-ILE NBM SHOWS 1.5-2.5" E OF US
54 THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE FLOOD THREAT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER
AS YOU HEAD WEST. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE SW FOR
FRI, BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO WESTERN AREAS. FOR FRI, THE
FLOOD THREAT FAVORS THE GILA REGION, BUT LOWER OVERALL COMPARED TO
THU. ZONAL FLOW AND DRIER AIR RETURNS ON SAT. SEASONAL TEMPS,
HIGHER CLOUDS, AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
HALLOWEEN.
THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES FOR SUN, BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES SUN/MON. NM WILL BE FAVORED FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS IN FAR WEST TX. WESTERN AREAS AND THE HIGH
TERRAIN ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FLASH FLOODING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. BREEZY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN COOLING A BIT
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKIES GENERALLY FEW-SCT070
TODAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS 180-220 AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TS EAST OF KELP ACROSS SE NM AND W TX, BUT NO DIRECT
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH CALM
WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF GOOD VENT RATES TODAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER
THE FORESTED AREAS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND CREEKS. ERCS
ARE VERY LOW AT THE MOMENT, SO NO FIRE DANGER EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 79 59 77 / 0 0 0 50
SIERRA BLANCA 52 78 54 73 / 10 0 0 60
LAS CRUCES 52 77 53 75 / 0 0 0 50
ALAMOGORDO 52 76 53 75 / 0 0 0 40
CLOUDCROFT 39 57 40 56 / 0 0 0 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 76 50 73 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 47 72 48 71 / 0 0 0 30
DEMING 51 79 53 77 / 0 0 0 40
LORDSBURG 52 77 54 76 / 0 0 0 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 79 61 76 / 0 0 0 50
DELL CITY 53 78 55 75 / 10 10 0 40
FORT HANCOCK 59 85 60 80 / 0 0 0 60
LOMA LINDA 53 73 54 70 / 0 0 0 50
FABENS 57 81 59 79 / 0 0 0 50
SANTA TERESA 55 78 57 75 / 0 0 0 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 79 58 76 / 0 0 0 50
JORNADA RANGE 52 77 54 75 / 0 0 0 40
HATCH 52 81 53 78 / 0 0 0 40
COLUMBUS 54 80 56 78 / 0 0 0 30
OROGRANDE 50 76 53 74 / 0 0 0 40
MAYHILL 43 70 44 67 / 0 0 0 60
MESCALERO 43 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 60
TIMBERON 41 65 43 64 / 0 10 10 50
WINSTON 39 70 41 68 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 48 77 51 73 / 0 0 0 40
SPACEPORT 49 76 50 74 / 0 0 0 40
LAKE ROBERTS 40 72 42 71 / 0 0 0 30
HURLEY 45 75 47 73 / 0 0 0 40
CLIFF 48 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 46 74 47 74 / 0 0 0 20
FAYWOOD 48 74 50 72 / 0 0 0 40
ANIMAS 53 80 54 77 / 0 0 0 20
HACHITA 51 79 53 76 / 0 0 0 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 80 54 77 / 0 0 0 30
CLOVERDALE 50 74 52 74 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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