537
FXUS64 KEPZ 291650
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
950 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BRIEF
COOL DOWN FORECAST MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
THE CONUS IS STILL IN A RIDGE WEST, TROUGH EAST PATTERN, PLACING
US WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A DRY, COOL PATTERN FOR US WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. THIS PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE A BIT TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, A S/W TROUGH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS, WHICH WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT THIS HAS ALMOST
ENTIRELY DISAPPEARED. THUS, THE FORECAST IS LARGELY DRY WITH JUST
SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN250. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NORTH (000-030) WITH TOP SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
ISO GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
MINIMAL TO NO FIRE CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DRIEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
10 MPH. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN POOR IN THE LOWLANDS BUT WILL VARY
IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM FAIR TO GOOD FOR FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND VENT
RATES WILL DROP TO POOR IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY MONDAY, VENT RATES
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 32 59 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 28 53 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 29 56 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 26 55 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 20 37 21 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 30 57 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 57 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 30 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 27 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 35 58 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 22 52 20 46 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 30 61 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 31 52 31 49 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 30 61 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 57 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 33 57 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 25 57 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 27 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 32 60 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 26 53 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 22 50 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 21 47 21 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 23 45 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 22 54 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 30 57 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 25 57 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 57 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 27 57 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 63 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 61 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 32 56 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 28 60 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 59 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 30 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 35 57 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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