286
FXUS64 KEPZ 200454
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1054 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE
MONSOON PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. LOCALIZED
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
RISK, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO SHIFT A LITTLE WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE ON TUESDAY, THEN CLOSER TO THE ARIZONA BORDER
FOR WEDNESDAY.
- STORM CHANCES PLUMMET FROM WEDNESDAY,INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
MERRY-GO-ROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE A
SLOW TOUR OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK AND BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, WILL END UP PRETTY MUCH BACK WHERE IT STARTED OVER
COLORADO.
FOR MONDAY, LIKE I SAID, THE RIDGE WILL CENTERED OVER COLORADO
WHICH GIVES US AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW HAS
BEEN A VERY SLOW MOVING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE CENTERED MORE OR LESS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK WIDE SPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PW'S) OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION, STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN LUNA, HIDALGO AND
SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SEE GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON
TONIGHT AND LAST NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE UNDER THE
GUN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 80'S FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLY OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THIS RIDGE POSITION
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE MOISTURE FURTHER AND FURTHER TO THE WEST.
FOR TUESDAY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GIVE EVERYONE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT BY WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED INTO ARIZONA, SO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER NEW MEXICO AND THAT WILL PRETTY MUCH SHUT
DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES AND IT WILL JUMP MOST LOWLAND LOCATION'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. FOR THE START
OF THE FINAL WEEK IN JULY THE RIDGE WILL RETURN TO COLORADO. IT
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST SO THE HOT DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS
WE FINISH OUT JULY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE
REGION. WE MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT, BUT
OTHERWISE WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY CONVECTION UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MONDAY AGAIN LOOKS ACTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
FIRST IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND THEN WORKING DOWN INTO THE LOWLANDS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING A TAF SITE WILL BE AT KLRU AND KDMN, SO I
HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN BOTH OF THOSE TAF'S. AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER WE WILL UPDATE TAF'S AS APPROPRIATE.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WE WILL HAVE HIGH AND MID
CEILINGS OF BKN120-250. CEILINGS WILL LOWER SOME ON MONDAY BUT
STILL STAY IN THE MID CATEGORY, EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD SEE SOME BKN050 CEILINGS FOR A TIME.
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH, BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE MUCH OF THE WIND
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL AGAIN SEE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY THEN DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK, AS MOISTURE/HUMIDITY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY,
BEFORE THE CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES OUT MOSTLY OVER AREAS DEMING WEST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH
LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN. MIN RHS LOWER WITH LOWLAND RHS
APPROACHING CRITICAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. NO
SIGNIFICANT NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS EXPECTED.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 35-45% THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN DECREASING TO 15-25%
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 50-70% THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN
DECREASING TO 20-35% BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD
THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 88 70 89 / 60 40 50 30
SIERRA BLANCA 63 81 62 86 / 60 50 30 20
LAS CRUCES 65 87 64 87 / 50 40 40 40
ALAMOGORDO 65 85 65 87 / 20 70 50 60
CLOUDCROFT 49 66 49 68 / 30 80 40 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 90 69 87 / 30 40 40 60
SILVER CITY 60 82 59 80 / 40 90 50 90
DEMING 65 92 64 90 / 50 50 50 60
LORDSBURG 65 88 64 86 / 60 70 60 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 87 70 88 / 60 40 50 30
DELL CITY 67 88 66 91 / 30 50 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 70 88 69 92 / 60 50 50 30
LOMA LINDA 64 80 63 82 / 50 40 50 30
FABENS 69 88 68 90 / 70 40 50 30
SANTA TERESA 67 86 67 86 / 60 40 50 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 88 71 88 / 30 60 40 50
JORNADA RANGE 66 88 66 88 / 30 50 50 50
HATCH 67 92 66 91 / 30 40 50 60
COLUMBUS 69 90 68 89 / 70 50 50 50
OROGRANDE 66 85 65 87 / 30 50 40 30
MAYHILL 54 77 54 79 / 30 70 30 50
MESCALERO 53 77 53 78 / 20 80 40 70
TIMBERON 51 73 51 75 / 30 80 50 50
WINSTON 58 83 58 80 / 40 60 40 70
HILLSBORO 64 88 64 85 / 30 50 50 70
SPACEPORT 64 88 63 87 / 20 50 50 60
LAKE ROBERTS 56 84 55 82 / 30 80 50 90
HURLEY 61 85 60 83 / 40 80 50 80
CLIFF 63 88 62 86 / 30 90 50 90
MULE CREEK 60 85 60 83 / 40 90 50 90
FAYWOOD 62 85 62 83 / 30 70 50 80
ANIMAS 65 87 64 85 / 60 70 60 70
HACHITA 63 87 62 85 / 70 60 60 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 84 64 83 / 60 70 60 70
CLOVERDALE 61 80 61 79 / 50 70 60 80
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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