033
FXUS64 KEPZ 211151
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
551 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING,
LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
- WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE 80S. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
REGION. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
- THE FLOOD THREAT LINGERS FOR EASTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
STORM CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
STRONG PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THAT SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO
WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTH, LEADING TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE-OCTOBER.
FOR WEDNESDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. ISOLATED (10-20% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF GRANT AND HIDALGO
COUNTIES, BUT THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LIMITED FURTHER WEST INTO ARIZONA. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL STAY DRY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY ALSO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS WARMING FURTHER TO
THE LOWER-TO-MID 80S. THIS IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATE OCTOBER.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE LATE ON THURSDAY, WITH A 75-KNOT JET
STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. DEEP
MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF MEXICO WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO 1.1-1.3", WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS E AZ AND W NM ON
THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ITS FOCUS EASTWARD ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY ON FRIDAY, THEN FAR WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
OVER THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE PUT THE HIGHEST FLOOD RISK OVER W NM,
INCLUDING GRANT COUNTY AND THE GILA WILDERNESS (MOST LIKELY RAIN
AMOUNTS 0.75-1.25", WORSE-CASE 2.00-3.00" LOCALIZED).
CONTINUED JET FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL SLOW IT DOWN
CONSIDERABLY THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY STALLING A PORTION OF VORTICITY
ALOFT OVER ARIZONA AND MAINTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN RISK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS PASS BY
TODAY WITH INCREASING COVERAGE. FEW-SCT110 DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AOB 10KTS MOSTLY FROM E-SE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
TODAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
OVER LINCOLN COUNTY, PUSHING NORTH INTO THE EVENING. STRONG GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODESTLY BREEZY E-SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WARM
TEMPS AND DEEPER MIXING TODAY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. STORM CHANCES INCREASE OUT WEST THU WITH
STRONG/SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE IN SW NM THROUGH THE
EVENING. STORM CHANCES PUSH EAST FRI/SAT ALONG WITH THE FLASH
FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT. WINDS STAY MODESTLY BREEZY INTO THE
WEEKEND, FAVORING A S-SE DIRECTION. TEMPS COOL TO NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 30-50% IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGH FRI, 40-70% IN
MTNS. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO GOOD E OF RGV TODAY, GOOD TO VERY
GOOD W; FAIR TO GOOD THU; GOOD TO EXCELLENT W OF RGV FRI/SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 85 63 83 / 0 0 60 60
SIERRA BLANCA 56 82 57 81 / 0 0 10 40
LAS CRUCES 60 81 57 77 / 0 0 80 30
ALAMOGORDO 58 82 59 78 / 0 0 60 80
CLOUDCROFT 44 61 45 58 / 0 0 50 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 77 56 74 / 10 30 90 40
SILVER CITY 56 71 51 69 / 20 80 100 60
DEMING 60 82 55 78 / 20 40 80 50
LORDSBURG 61 78 56 76 / 30 80 70 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 84 64 82 / 0 0 70 60
DELL CITY 57 84 59 83 / 0 0 10 50
FORT HANCOCK 63 90 65 90 / 0 0 20 50
LOMA LINDA 58 78 58 77 / 0 0 50 60
FABENS 64 88 63 87 / 0 0 50 60
SANTA TERESA 64 84 60 81 / 0 10 70 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 84 61 81 / 0 10 70 50
JORNADA RANGE 61 82 57 78 / 0 0 80 40
HATCH 60 83 57 79 / 10 10 90 40
COLUMBUS 64 84 59 81 / 20 30 70 30
OROGRANDE 60 82 58 79 / 0 0 70 60
MAYHILL 48 71 50 68 / 0 0 40 80
MESCALERO 49 72 49 68 / 0 0 50 80
TIMBERON 48 68 47 65 / 0 0 60 80
WINSTON 52 68 48 68 / 10 60 100 50
HILLSBORO 59 76 54 73 / 10 50 100 60
SPACEPORT 59 79 54 75 / 0 10 90 50
LAKE ROBERTS 53 70 48 68 / 20 80 100 70
HURLEY 56 75 50 71 / 10 80 90 60
CLIFF 59 77 55 75 / 50 90 100 50
MULE CREEK 55 71 52 69 / 60 100 100 50
FAYWOOD 59 74 53 71 / 10 70 90 60
ANIMAS 60 81 57 78 / 20 60 40 20
HACHITA 60 81 56 79 / 20 50 50 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 83 57 81 / 10 30 20 10
CLOVERDALE 58 77 55 74 / 10 40 40 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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