923
FXUS64 KEPZ 181724
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1024 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 933 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. OUR NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY PRECIPITATION DOESN'T COME UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
- SOME BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT, THEN WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
THIS WEEK'S WEATHER WILL BE LOW-IMPACT. NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AS
UPPER TROUGHING HOLDS STEADY ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGING OVER
THE WEST COAST. OTHER THAN A COUPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST THAT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEST MTN
SLOPES, NOT MUCH WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
FAIR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ARE FORECAST
FOR MON BEFORE OUR FIRST WEAK FRONT ARRIVES BY THE EVENING. THIS
BOUNDARY IS MODELED TO BRING 850MB FLOW UP TO 30KTS TO THE
BORDERLAND WITH SFC GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER FOR WEST SLOPES INTO
TUE AM, ESPECIALLY THE HUECOS. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO THE TEENS
FOR SOME OF THE LOWLANDS TUE AM, BUT SHOULD NOT APPROACH COLD WX
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUE WITH COOLER TEMPS, BUT
ONLY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW MON. THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD
THROUGH THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE WEST COAST. TEMPS
REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AS W-SW FLOW STRENGTHENS.
CURRENTLY, PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LOW'S TRACK AND ORIENTATION (CLOSED LOW
VS. OPEN WAVE). THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE TROUGH STAYS
FURTHER NORTH AND GIVES US BREEZY WINDS AND WESTERN AREAS A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS. WE'LL SEE IF THE LOW DEEPENS AND
TRACKS SOUTH TO PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE AT PRECIP, LIKE THE GFS
SHOWS. TEMPS SHOULD COME DOWN AT LEAST A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE PACIFIC FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHER THAN
FEW-SCT250 PASSING BY, MAINLY SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHER THAN MODESTLY BREEZY WINDS (AROUND 10 MPH AT 20 FEET) IN
FWZ113, LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FAIR SKIES.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FOR MON, SHIFTING EAST BY THE EVENING BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEST MTN SLOPES INTO
TUE AM, RELAXING DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. WARMER FOR
WED-FRI AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL MAYBE NEXT
WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-20% TODAY, RISING TO 20-30% IN FWZ113 ON
MON; THEN 15-30% AREA-WIDE TUE. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 34 64 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 32 62 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 28 60 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 27 59 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 44 20 41 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 60 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 34 60 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 28 64 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 64 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 63 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 23 60 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 30 68 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 58 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 30 65 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 62 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 60 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 26 60 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 26 64 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 30 64 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 29 60 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 30 53 20 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 28 54 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 28 51 21 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 58 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 33 61 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 26 60 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 60 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 62 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 28 65 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 30 62 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 61 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 31 67 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 66 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 32 70 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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