412
FXUS64 KEPZ 171131
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
- LIGHTER WIND TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EASTERN ZONES NEXT
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATELLITE DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH VERY DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW BELOW THE JET STREAK AT THE
BASE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS VERY DRY AIR SITS ACROSS MOST OF NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.
FOR SUNDAY, 988MB SURFACE LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT AT THE NE TIP OF
NEW MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE STATE,
PROMOTING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. MOST COMMON WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, THUS NO WIND HEADLINES. EL PASO'S WINDS
WILL BE A BIT WEAKER (15 TO 25 MPH), AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS EXTENDS FROM A ROUGHLY LORDSBURG-TO-CLOVIS LINE. STILL,
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AROUND LORDSBURG, DEMING, AND EL
PASO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-MAY, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, AS AN 80-KNOT JET STREAK AT
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW EJECTS OVER THE COLORADO/KANSAS PLAINS
WELL TO OUR NORTH. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY AREA WIDE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WE MAY ALSO SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL,
ALMOST A CARBON COPY ON SUNDAY'S WEATHER.
LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, BUT CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 MPH. VERY SUBTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY ALSO HELP BOOST
DEWPOINTS A BIT TOO, THOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE.
THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE MOISTURE BOUNDARY POSITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF WEST TEXAS.
MOIST, SOUTHEAST FLOW UP THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO BIG BEND, BUT EVENTUALLY RUN INTO THE
CONSISTENT, DRY WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND EL PASO.
THIS WILL HELP US FORM A VERY DEFINED BOUNDARY BETWEEN DRY AND
MOIST, LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EL PASO CWA. OVERNIGHT
"SLOSHING" OF THE BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG OUTFLOW
PUSHING THIS MOISTURE FURTHER WEST, COULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO REACH
AS FAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FOR NOW, SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES, BUT NO FURTHER WEST. LATEST GFS RUN SEEMS
CONFIDENT THAT DRY, WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THIS MOISTURE AT BAY,
THUS NO RAIN CHANCES FOR EL PASO THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS TOPPING
OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THIS WILL
PUT ELP NEAR AWW CRITERIA. DIRECTION WILL BE 240-260, SO BLDU MAY
BE AN ISSUE FOR ELP, DMN, AND MAYBE LRU. CURRENT TEMPO GROUP HAS
3SM BUT ACTUAL TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR ELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
STAYING BELOW 15%. WINDS ARE ALREADY BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS EAST
FACING SLOPES BUT WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, TOPPING OUT AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 50 MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EAST FACING SLOPES, WHICH WILL INHIBIT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH, WITH MORE SINGLE-DIGIT
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
NEW MEXICO FIRE ZONES PLUS EL PASO COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES. THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS HAS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT SINCE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG, WHICH MAY KEEP EAST FACING
SLOPES FROM GETTING ABOVE 15% HUMIDITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEVEN
CABINS FIRE. VENTING WILL BE EXCELLENT BOTH DAYS WITH SMOKE
TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHEAST.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY ONWARD FOR ALL BUT EASTERN
AREAS, BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. FOR THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY, THE INTRODUCTION OF
MOISTURE VIA A RETREAT DRY LINE WILL BRING MIN RH IMPROVEMENTS AS
WELL AS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 56 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 84 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 88 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 57 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 96 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 61 93 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 56 85 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 58 88 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 89 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 53 75 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 49 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 46 75 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 54 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 75 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 48 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 82 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 77 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 53 84 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 84 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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