555
FXUS64 KEPZ 211648
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1048 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
- DRIER AIR MOVES BACK IN TODAY TO DRY OUT ALL BUT HUDSPETH
COUNTY, WHICH COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO.
- SETTLE IN FOR WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE RISE, COMPOUNDING EACH DAY DUE TO
THE DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER AND DETERIORATING STATE OF FUELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS TODAY, ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON.
HUDSPETH CO WILL HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S,
SPARKING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL INVOLVE TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER:
DRY AND BREEZY. A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WED, GENERATING LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. BREEZY W
WINDS OF ABOUT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED, A
BIT LIGHTER FOR FAR WEST TX. STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
WINDS AT LEAST BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON FROM THE W-SW. THE DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DAY AFTER DAY WILL WORSEN FIRE DANGER INTO THE
WEEKEND AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY. THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE, FOLLOWED
BY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. BLOWING DUST WILL BE A HAZARD
THOSE AFTERNOONS.
AFTER THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OUT EAST, RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ZERO UNDER ZONAL/SW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW, BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
HIGHER CLOUDS AT 20-25KFT PASS OVERHEAD, BECOMING SCT THIS
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST BEGINNING ON WED.
WINDS BECOME BREEZY FROM THE W-SW TOMORROW AT 15-20 MPH, CREATING
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX. RED FLAG CRITERIA COULD BE MET
IN ISOLATED SPOTS WED AFTERNOON (MOST LIKELY FOOTHILLS OF THE
BLACKS/SACS), BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS
TO BE ISSUED. WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THU, RESULTING IN
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX AREAS. FUELS WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD
THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, CLIMBING TOWARDS
THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY THE WEEKEND, MAYBE EARLIER. ERCS ARE IN
WORSE SHAPE IN THE LINCOLN COMPARED TO THE GILA, BOTH CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES. FIRE WX WATCHES MAY BE
ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THU IF FUELS TREND TOWARDS THE 90TH, SINCE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR EXCEED CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. CONTINUED ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX IS
FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN HUDSPETH THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ZERO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% TODAY, THEN 7-18%. VENT RATES WILL BE
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY, THEN EXCELLENT AREA-WIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 88 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 83 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 52 83 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 53 85 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 62 41 58 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 84 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 75 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 52 85 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 82 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 86 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 87 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 90 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 80 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 57 88 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 85 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 85 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 85 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 50 87 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 88 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 84 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 75 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 45 72 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 44 70 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 41 76 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 81 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 85 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 75 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 78 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 80 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 76 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 78 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 50 83 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 83 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 52 83 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 78 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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