793
FXUS64 KEPZ 271041
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
441 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- FOR THE LAST 5 DAYS OF MAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM
SEASONAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THAT WILL KEEP US WARM AND DRY. FOR THURSDAY, MOST
OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY, BUT A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY SNEAK INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THAT MOISTURE COULD HELP FUEL A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RUN AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
AVERAGE.
ON FRIDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, THIS SYSTEM IS TOO FAR AWAY TO REALLY
IMPACT OUR WEATHER, BUT IT WILL PUSH MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
DESPITE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR EAST, THE DRY WESTERLY WINDS LOOK
TO KEEP THAT MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP HIGHER EACH DAY SO THAT BY SUNDAY OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. OUR WARM DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY, AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT. THEN ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND GIVE LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOOK TO TREND A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE, BUT THE
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC. SCT-BKN100 DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z...MAINLY EAST OF THE RG VALLEY AND DISSIPATING AFTER
01Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, INCREASING TO SOUTH 10-15
KNOTS AFTER 18Z, THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS AGAIN AFTER
02Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
DRIER AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE FIRE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH VERY LOW RH WILL KEEP
FIRE CONDITIONS MOSTLY AT THE ELEVATED STAGE. WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
REMAINING IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE. HIGHER MOISTURE/HUMIDITY WILL
PERSIST AROUND THE SACS/CAPITANS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED BUT MAY SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SURGE AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 8-13% THROUGH MONDAY. GILA/BLACK RANGE 10-15%
THROUGH SUNDAY. SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS 20-30% TODAY, DECREASING
TO 10-20% THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT
THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 89 61 87 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 56 91 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 91 62 89 / 0 20 30 10
CLOUDCROFT 44 69 47 67 / 0 30 30 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 93 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 56 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 57 90 59 91 / 0 10 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 64 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 86 62 84 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 62 95 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 92 71 90 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 91 58 89 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 56 93 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 90 58 88 / 0 10 20 0
MAYHILL 48 79 52 79 / 10 40 30 20
MESCALERO 47 80 51 78 / 0 40 30 10
TIMBERON 47 76 49 76 / 0 20 40 10
WINSTON 45 80 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 82 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 51 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 89 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 44 83 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 56 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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