819
FXUS64 KEPZ 221715
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1115 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
- BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY THIS WEEK ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- STRONGER WINDS OUT OF THE WEST NEXT SUNDAY MAY BE IMPACTFUL.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL LEAD TO LOWER VISIBILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
..TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
BASE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID-80S IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR LATE APRIL. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-30 MPH) ALONG EAST
SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, IN PARTICULAR NE AND CENTRAL EL
PASO.
..THURSDAY
JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL GENERATE A 992MB LEE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS S NM AND W TX. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY BLOWING
DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
..FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY (15 TO 20
MPH) EACH AFTERNOON, BUT CONDITIONS STAY DRY AND WARM.
..SUNDAY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONGEST OF THE WEEK.
80-KNOT JET STREAK CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS DEPICTED IN
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODELS. WIND AND DUST HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED AS THIS EVENT APPROACHES. DEEPER 989MB SURFACE LOW
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND LOW VISIBILITY IS THE MAIN
CONCERN.
..NEXT WEEK
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ALMOST EVERY DAY, BUT NOTHING THAT
SOUNDS ALARMS NEXT WEEK. FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP
OUT OF BAJA ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A PACIFIC LOW COULD LEAD TO
LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK. NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH,
THOUGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WIND
240-270 AT 15G25KT. SKIES FEW-SCT250. OVERNIGHT WIND 260-280 AT
14G22KT. VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNLIMITED. MORE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH RH 10-15% AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. FUEL CONDITIONS ARE TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT WILL DRY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, REACHING ERC 90TH PERCENTILES BY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER WIND
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THUS RED FLAG WARNING IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TOMORROW. MIN RH 8-12% AND WEST WINDS 20
TO 30 MPH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER AND KEEP US BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS NEXT SUNDAY AS A JET
STREAK ALOFT GENERATES A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW 25 TO 35 MPH AND RH 10-20% WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES. CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT DOES LOOK TO IMPROVE
MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 82 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 59 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 71 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 79 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 89 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 57 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 81 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 51 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 45 69 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 45 68 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 72 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 45 82 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 40 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 42 75 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 42 77 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 73 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 74 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 82 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 82 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CAPITAN
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND
LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE
NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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