253
FXUS64 KEPZ 281746
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1146 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
- MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL REMNANTS OF POLO WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT WEEKS.
- NEW RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING 3 TO 4 INCHES. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
MOISTURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
TWO WEATHER FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HURRICANE POLO
SPINNING OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. TROPICAL STEERING PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR POLO TO DRIFT NORTH ON MONDAY, MAKING LIKELY
LANDFALL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC LOW ALOFT WILL MAKE A
SOUTHEAST DIVE DOWN TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, FORCED BY A
STRENGTHENING 75-KNOT JET STREAK ON ITS BACKSIDE. A WEAKENING POLO
WILL LATCH ONTO THIS STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW, SHIFTING IT
NORTHEAST INTO SONORA/CHIHUAHUA AND STRAIGHT TOWARD EL PASO ON
TUESDAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A RAPID MOISTURE INCREASE LOCALLY, THANKS TO
THE APPROACHING TROPICAL REMNANTS. VEERING OF MID-LEVEL WINDS TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW WILL PULL IN DEEP, TROPICALLY-
SOURCED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MEASURED AT JUST 1.1" THIS EVENING
(00Z KEPZ RAOB), WILL SPIKE TO 1.5-1.6" MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BREAK SEASONAL MOISTURE RECORDS FOR EL PASO, AND IS EASILY 3 TO 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THE END OF THE MONSOON
SEASON. THIS MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE, COMBINED WITH PVA AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN RAIN FOR ALL LOCAL ZONES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS UP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIKE
A FIRE HOSE INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. 48-HOUR RAINFALL
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.00-2.00". NBM
GUIDANCE BACKS THIS UP. STRONGER STORMS AND TRAINING (OR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS) OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
3-4". SOIL SATURATION IS VERY HIGH RIGHT NOW, SO RAIN WILL LEAD
TO RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING QUICKLY. A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF
4) RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE ALMOST AREA-WIDE FOR
TUESDAY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR ME WILL BE THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, WHICH HAVE ALREADY HAD AN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SEASON AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WFO EL PASO WILL BE PROACTIVE WITH FLOOD
WARNINGS IN AREAS WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS IF NEEDED TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.
ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAIN RISK, THE PASSING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY STILL HAVE SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 00Z HRRR
RUN TONIGHT WAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN, AND RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE
ALSO PICKED UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING AS POLO MOVES THROUGH. INCREASED FORECASTED WINDS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR EL PASO, HUDSPETH, OTERO
COUNTIES WHERE STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED STORM TRACK COULD LEAD TO GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NM ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE REMNANTS
OF POLO QUICKLY DISSIPATING. SUBSIDENT "DRY-SLOTTING" AT THE BASE
OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
ONCE ALL THIS ACTION PASSES, IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY "BORING"
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE START OF OCTOBER. STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST WILL USHER IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
RAINFALL. CONTINUED EAST SURFACE FLOW COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS LINGERING
IN THE UPPER 70S INTO NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET RIGHT
NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING LATE THIS MORNING
BUT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WE'RE EXPECTING.
STORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND ALL ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
WITH PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW. EXPECT SOME BREEZY WINDS AT KTCS THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY TONIGHT.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A MEDIUM-HIGH
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, WORSENED BY SATURATED SOILS FROM LAST
WEEKS' RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COOLER TOMORROW WITH POSSIBLY STRONG
WINDS IN THE EVENING FOR EASTERN AREAS AS POLO'S REMNANTS COME
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE WED AM BEHIND THE
PASSING UPPER LOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEGINNING THU.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 35-55% TODAY, RISING TO 60-90% TUE. VENT RATES
WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOSTLY POOR TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 79 60 74 / 80 100 60 10
SIERRA BLANCA 62 80 59 72 / 90 70 60 20
LAS CRUCES 63 73 55 70 / 90 100 70 10
ALAMOGORDO 63 75 56 71 / 90 100 60 40
CLOUDCROFT 49 56 42 50 / 90 100 80 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 70 54 70 / 90 100 80 20
SILVER CITY 58 65 49 63 / 100 100 70 50
DEMING 62 74 53 72 / 90 90 70 10
LORDSBURG 62 72 53 69 / 90 90 80 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 79 60 74 / 90 100 50 10
DELL CITY 65 82 61 75 / 80 90 60 20
FORT HANCOCK 68 88 64 81 / 90 80 50 20
LOMA LINDA 61 74 55 67 / 90 90 60 20
FABENS 66 84 61 77 / 90 90 60 20
SANTA TERESA 64 77 58 72 / 80 100 60 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 76 58 72 / 80 90 60 10
JORNADA RANGE 63 73 55 71 / 90 90 80 10
HATCH 64 75 55 73 / 100 90 80 10
COLUMBUS 64 76 57 74 / 80 80 40 10
OROGRANDE 63 75 56 70 / 90 80 50 10
MAYHILL 55 67 48 64 / 90 100 80 20
MESCALERO 54 66 47 60 / 100 100 80 60
TIMBERON 52 63 47 58 / 100 100 60 40
WINSTON 55 64 46 64 / 100 100 80 20
HILLSBORO 60 71 53 71 / 100 100 80 10
SPACEPORT 61 71 53 70 / 90 90 80 10
LAKE ROBERTS 54 64 46 62 / 100 100 70 50
HURLEY 58 68 50 66 / 90 100 70 30
CLIFF 61 71 54 69 / 100 100 90 60
MULE CREEK 57 66 50 65 / 90 90 90 60
FAYWOOD 60 68 51 66 / 90 100 70 10
ANIMAS 63 74 54 72 / 80 100 70 10
HACHITA 61 73 53 71 / 80 90 50 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 62 74 54 72 / 80 90 60 10
CLOVERDALE 59 68 52 67 / 90 100 80 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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