234
FXUS64 KEPZ 301739
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1139 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1138 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY, RUNNING 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS 102 TO 108 EACH AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND.
- LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
THE LOWLANDS STARTING FRIDAY AND EVEN GREATER COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.
- DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO MOST OF THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM FOCUS BACK OVER WESTERN AREAS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
NO REAL CHANGES TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER HIGH
CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE NNE AND ALLOWING FOR SOME
DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE CWA.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTION THAT YESTERDAY, BUT WILL REMAINED FOCUSED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN THE SACS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE
MILD WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AROUND 75-80 DEGREES AGAIN.
FOR FRI/SAT, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A N TO E FLOW
DEVELOPING. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FROM THE NE. THIS BOUNDARY WON'T MAKE IT
INTO THE LOWLANDS UNTIL LATE FRI WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP INTO THE 100-110 RANGE. IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE SUMMER FOR MANY AREAS. EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGHOUT THE LOWLANDS AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE GILA REGION. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THERE
WILL BE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN PUSHING
STORMS ONTO THE LOWLANDS DUE TO OUTFLOWS. MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE WITH PW'S IN THE 1-1.2" RANGE WITH WEAK SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SO EXPECTING MORE POPCORN TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE OUTFLOWS. BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. FOR SATURDAY,
THERE WILL BE A MORE SHEAR/INSTABILITY AS WELL AS MOISTURE. THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN DAY TO FOCUS ON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS REALLY ANYWHERE BUT THINK PARAMETERS LINE UP BEST
EAST OF THE RGV. TEMPERATURES HERE WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.
DRIER AIR STARTS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH
STORMS BEING MUCH MORE ISOLATED AND MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE "COOLEST" DAY WITH MOST AREAS NOT GETTING
ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
FOR NEXT WEEK, AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. THE STRENGTH IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT BOTH THE
EC/GFS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THIS AND WITH A GENERALLY
EASTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA, GULF MOISTURE STAYS
GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST BRINGING US BACK TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN AS STORMS REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE GILA REGION AND
WEST OF THE DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 FOR THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS DEVELOPING BY 20Z AND THEN MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE, ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH AND END BY 04Z. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KTS
AREAWIDE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND MORE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
FRIDAY IS CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE AT LEAST VERY CLOSE TO THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR WITH THE LOWLANDS ALL OVER 100 DEGREES.
EVEN WITH THESE TEMPERATURES, THE LOWLANDS WILL KEEP RH'S ABOVE
10% AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20S AND 30S. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE DEVELOPING AND BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH EVEN GREATER COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH'S
WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL RETURN TO
WEATHER SIMILAR TO THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105 WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY FOCUSED WEST OF THE
DIVIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 108 77 100 / 0 20 40 20
SIERRA BLANCA 74 103 72 95 / 0 10 20 20
LAS CRUCES 76 105 73 99 / 20 30 40 30
ALAMOGORDO 76 105 71 97 / 10 30 30 60
CLOUDCROFT 60 78 54 73 / 10 40 30 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 77 104 72 98 / 20 20 20 30
SILVER CITY 70 98 66 93 / 20 40 30 60
DEMING 76 106 76 100 / 20 30 30 20
LORDSBURG 76 103 73 99 / 20 20 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 107 77 100 / 10 20 40 20
DELL CITY 74 106 73 96 / 0 20 20 40
FORT HANCOCK 77 109 77 102 / 0 10 30 10
LOMA LINDA 73 100 70 92 / 0 30 40 20
FABENS 77 109 76 101 / 0 20 40 10
SANTA TERESA 77 105 75 98 / 10 20 40 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 106 76 99 / 10 30 40 40
JORNADA RANGE 74 105 73 98 / 20 30 40 40
HATCH 75 108 73 102 / 20 30 40 30
COLUMBUS 76 107 76 101 / 10 20 30 10
OROGRANDE 75 104 71 96 / 0 20 40 40
MAYHILL 63 91 58 83 / 10 50 30 80
MESCALERO 60 92 58 84 / 10 40 20 80
TIMBERON 59 89 55 82 / 10 40 30 80
WINSTON 66 97 62 91 / 20 40 20 60
HILLSBORO 74 101 70 97 / 20 30 20 50
SPACEPORT 74 105 70 98 / 10 30 50 30
LAKE ROBERTS 60 95 59 93 / 20 50 20 70
HURLEY 73 100 68 95 / 20 40 40 50
CLIFF 67 103 66 98 / 20 30 30 50
MULE CREEK 63 100 62 97 / 10 20 20 40
FAYWOOD 73 99 69 94 / 20 30 30 60
ANIMAS 75 106 74 101 / 20 10 20 10
HACHITA 73 104 72 99 / 20 20 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 73 103 72 100 / 20 10 30 10
CLOVERDALE 68 99 70 96 / 10 20 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-UPPER GILA
RIVER VALLEY.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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