446
FXUS64 KEPZ 261732
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1132 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
- WINDY, DRY, AND POSSIBLY DUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL TO
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
- THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE BENIGN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE
SIT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM, CONDITIONS CONTINUE VERY DRY, WINDS LIGHTER,
BUT STILL BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL ROTATE A
LOBE OF ENERGY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN CONUS, THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PHASE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES REGIONS. THIS PHASING WILL INDUCE STRONG LEE-SIDE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SE COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO. THE
~990MB SURFACE LOW WILL EXTEND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS, WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL OVERLAY THE BORDERLAND REGION ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE 20-35
MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 45-60 MPH. ON TOP OF THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE, A WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING
WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN
ANDREAS/ORGAN/FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN EAST SLOPES, INCLUDING CENTRAL AND
EAST EL PASO. AGAIN, BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE DESERT
LOWLANDS WITH A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING TIMEFRAME.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS BREEZY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
THEREAFTER, MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
COMING INTO MORE AND MORE AGREEMENT, WITH REGARD TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BRINGING IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW TO MEDIUM AS DETAILS NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
AREAWIDE, SUSTAINED AT 25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40-50 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. AN AWW IS IN EFFECT FOR KELP DUE TO THE WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS MAY PREVAIL AT KELP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE FRANKLIN
MOUNTAINS. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY FEW TO SCT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH INSTANCES OF SKC. BLOWING DUST WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS, CONFIDENCE IN MAGNITUDE IS
LOW BUT EXPECTED REDUCTIONS TO VIS BETWEEN 19-23Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MIN RH
VALUES TODAY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AREAWIDE. VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-40 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 50-60
MPH. SMOKE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT EACH AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WINDS WITH CRITICAL AFTERNOON RH
VALUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER, MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
COMING INTO MORE AND MORE AGREEMENT, WITH REGARD TO AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BRINGING IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW TO MEDIUM AS DETAILS NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 45 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 56 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 45 81 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 41 77 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 83 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 89 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 79 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 81 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 85 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 38 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 38 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 33 70 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 41 79 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 33 69 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 37 73 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 37 75 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 36 71 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 73 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 81 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO
COUNTY.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES
VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES
BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-OTERO MESA-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO
MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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