774
FXUS64 KEPZ 221106
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
506 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 445 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- OUR HISTORIC MARCH HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TODAY WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S. WE WILL LIKELY SET DAILY AND MONTHLY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MARGINALLY BREEZY WINDS, HOT TEMPERATURES, CRITICAL DRYNESS,
AND DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS.
- SOME MINOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ON MONDAY AND AGAIN NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS PAIR OF BACKDOOR COOL FRONTS MOVE IN.
HOWEVER,DESPITE THE DIP IN TEMPERATURES, AND SMALL GAINS IN
MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND RH
WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THOSE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME ON SUNDAY AND
THROUGH OUT MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. WE SET ANOTHER DAILY AND
MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY AND WE COULD SET BOTH
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT (5 TO 10 DEGREES), IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EL PASO
WILL SET ANOTHER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY AS WELL. LET
THAT SINK IN. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF COOLING
WE WILL STILL BE NEAR OR EVEN EXCEED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE ALOFT, WHICH HAD WEAKENED A BIT ON MONDAY, ROARS BACK TO
LIFE AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DAILY RECORD AND
POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL "COOL" TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO ONLY 4 TO
8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE REGION, REMAINS LOCKED OVERHEAD, DESPITE SOME WEAKENING, DUE
TO MINOR DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR NORTH. FOR THIS TAF CYCLE,
THAT MEANS WE WILL SEE THE REINTRODUCTION OF SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS, MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THUS, SKIES WILL START OUT SKC,
AND BECOME SCT250. WINDS WILL BE UP A BIT, AFTER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY W TO NW IN THE 7-12KT RANGE, WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 22KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, STILL CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER, AND KEEPING
THE REGION VERY WARM AND CRITICALLY DRY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN TODAY, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE PASSES WELL TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATELY BREEZY
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF RECORD WARMTH,
SINGLE-DIGIT RH, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AND RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. STILL, THE WEATHER AND
DRY FUELS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
AGAIN, WE REMIND YOU THAT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND BREAKING DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS FOR
MARCH. A CRITICALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN THAT MINRH WILL AGAIN
FALL INTO THE SINGLE-DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH VERY POOR
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING RECOVERY. FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY, WITH
ERCS BACK ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
MONDAY, A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT, SWINGS IN FROM THE NE. WE WILL SEE
A MINOR DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND MINOR GAINS IN HUMIDITY. THE
IMPROVEMENT IS SLIGHT AND INSIGNIFICANT, WITH BOTH STILL
EXCESSIVE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. QUICKLY, THE RIDGE REBOUNDS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY RIGHT BACK TO THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER RH. FORTUNATELY NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS.
FORECAST WEATHER MODELS SHOW NO HOPE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 88 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 82 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 51 85 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 85 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 64 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 87 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 53 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 52 89 50 93 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 53 88 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 87 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 50 83 48 94 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 91 53 97 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 80 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 89 53 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 86 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 86 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 87 49 92 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 50 89 49 94 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 56 89 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 85 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 38 77 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 39 75 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 43 73 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 43 82 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 86 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 86 48 91 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 81 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 84 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 88 47 91 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 51 85 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 83 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 89 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 89 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 58 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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