252
FXUS64 KEPZ 090420
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1020 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
- DRIER AND HOTTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MANY LOWLAND AREAS
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
LOWLANDS MIDWEEK.
- MOISTURE WILL OCCASIONALLY SEEP IN FROM THE EAST, GIVING THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SUB-TROPICAL HIGH OVER
THE GULF OF AMERICA/EAST TEXAS CONTINUE TO CLASH OVER NEW MEXICO.
THE HIGH IS ABLE TO HOLD ITS GROUND AND ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO
TRANSPORT SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER OUR AREA. WHILE THIS FLOW IS
NOT A JACKPOT OF MOISTURE, IT WILL KEEP OUR DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO
40 TUESDAY, ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ENHANCED CUMULUS/VIRGA/LIGHT
SHOWERS. WILL KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
FOR NOW, ALONG WITH BELOW THRESHOLD POPS FOR THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS.
BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE PACIFIC TROUGH FINALLY GIVES UP AND
RIDES UP OVER THE NORTH EDGE OF THE HIGH AND ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD
UP. MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS, AND THE
USUAL HOT AREAS (EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES METRO, LOWER VALLEY, AND
WESTERN TULAROSA BASIN) MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS BACK EAST SOME,
OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER NEW MEXICO AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY INTO
THE AREA. TROPICAL FEATURES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST MAY
ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME TO THIS FLOW. GFS SHOWS PWS INCREASING TO WELL
OVER AN INCH (AS HIGH AS 1.5" BUT PROBABLY OVERDONE A BIT). SO
COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KNOCK HIGH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 90S. OF MORE CONCERN WOULD BE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IF WE SEE
THOSE PWS APPROACHING 1.5". ECMWF SHOWS THE SAME BASIC PATTERN,
THOUGH THE MOISTURE DOESN'T SEEM AS ROBUST. WILL WATCH THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN120 BKN250 WITH
ISOLATED BKN090 VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA UNTIL AROUND 10Z.
AFTER 18Z ISOLATED BKN080CB -TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND
AFTER 21Z POSSIBLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COUNTIES. SURFACE
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS. RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST AFTER
03Z...WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7-10 KNOTS. AFTER 18Z WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 8-12G18 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHT S-SW WINDS ARE FORECAST AS A FEW SPRINKLES
DEVELOP OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE VIRGA SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL THREAT OF
LIGHTNING OR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY, BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN FWZ113. SW WINDS WILL BE
BREEZIER FOR TUESDAY, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WX AS RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY WED/THU WITH
CONTINUED ELEVATED CONDITIONS. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
TOWARDS NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-20% THROUGH TUE, THEN 7-17%. VENT RATES WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 103 77 104 / 10 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 98 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 101 67 102 / 10 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 100 71 101 / 10 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 77 53 79 / 10 20 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 98 67 101 / 10 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 58 92 59 94 / 10 10 10 0
DEMING 65 101 67 102 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 64 98 65 100 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 101 74 103 / 10 10 10 0
DELL CITY 64 99 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 104 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 95 69 97 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 71 104 72 105 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 69 101 69 102 / 10 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 101 77 103 / 10 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 100 68 102 / 10 10 10 0
HATCH 67 103 68 105 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 70 103 73 102 / 10 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 67 99 68 100 / 10 10 10 0
MAYHILL 56 88 58 91 / 0 20 10 0
MESCALERO 55 87 57 89 / 10 20 10 0
TIMBERON 52 84 54 86 / 10 20 10 0
WINSTON 53 89 56 94 / 10 20 10 0
HILLSBORO 65 96 65 99 / 10 20 10 0
SPACEPORT 63 98 64 101 / 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 50 92 50 94 / 10 20 10 0
HURLEY 60 96 61 97 / 10 20 10 0
CLIFF 51 99 51 100 / 0 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 94 46 95 / 0 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 62 95 64 96 / 10 20 10 0
ANIMAS 63 99 64 100 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 64 99 65 100 / 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 98 64 100 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 60 93 62 94 / 10 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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