542
FXUS64 KEPZ 100446
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1046 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- DRIER AND HOTTER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MANY LOWLAND AREAS
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
- FIRST HEAT ADVISORY OF THE YEAR ISSUED FOR MOST OF EL PASO
COUNTY AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF HUDSPETH COUNTY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- RETURNING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
AN ELONGATED RIDGE RUNNING FROM ARIZONA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RUN 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS IS WARM ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE ON OUR TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST A BIT AND THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE
TO SLIP BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS WEEKEND
WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN BOTH
AFTERNOONS. BUT IF THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND REMAINS IN PLACE, WE
WILL STAY DRY AND OUR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL CONTINUE. FOR NOW I
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE "COOLER" SOLUTION, BUT WE MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THINGS IF THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT IS ANCHORED HERE A LITTLE
LONGER.
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST WILL SQUEEZE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
THAT WILL KEEP US FROM GETTING QUITE SO HOT. BUT THE EXTENDED
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. SO IF
WE DO GET A BREAK FROM THE 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL ONLY BE FOR A FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OUR CEILINGS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNLIMITED. THE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW END
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND A BETTER
CHANCE FOR AREA MTNS. DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN FOR WESTERN AREAS
WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LOWER. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
FWZ113 AND THE BLACK RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
BREEZY WED/THU AS WINDS SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW-MEDIUM RAIN/STORM CHANCES
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, MAINLY IN EASTERN AREAS.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% THIS AFTERNOON, THEN 7-17% THROUGH THU.
VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 105 78 105 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 99 69 100 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 68 102 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 100 73 101 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 79 55 82 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 101 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 104 69 105 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 99 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 103 75 103 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 102 68 104 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 105 74 106 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 96 70 96 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 73 105 72 106 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 101 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 101 69 101 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 68 105 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 99 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 59 91 61 94 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 58 89 59 92 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 55 86 57 88 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 56 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 99 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 65 100 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 94 56 97 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 96 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 60 99 60 101 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 57 94 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 96 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 99 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 66 99 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 99 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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