626
FXUS64 KEPZ 120441
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND.
- A FEW LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL FLIRT WITH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING IN THE GILA
WILDERNESS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THANKFULLY THIS IS NOT JUNE OR OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES. AS IT IS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK AT
A FEW LOWLAND LOCATIONS. BACK TO TUESDAY, OUR HIGHS IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS I MENTIONED,
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE (10 TO 20%) THAT EL PASO COULD SEE THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST WE WILL SEE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING JUST
BEHIND THE RIDGE. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE SURFACE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GILA WILDERNESS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE A WEAK ZONAL OR
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP US VERY WARM WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NO REAL
STRONG WINDS OR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GIVE US SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN WE
WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. OUR CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM, FUELS ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY
DESPITE THE RECENT RAINS. FIRE WEATHER ZONES ACROSS SOUTHERN NM WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ERC VALUES INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HOT, DRY, AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS RESUME.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RESUME...MAINLY DUE TO SUB-CRITICAL RH VALUES. RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF WINDS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO LOW-
END BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR WIND EVENTS
IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. BREEZY WINDS RETURN AS SW FLOW ALOFT RESUMES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
SMOKE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE GOOD, BECOMING EXCELLENT BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 90 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 56 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 61 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 71 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 57 89 60 86 / 0 0 0 20
DEMING 57 97 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 94 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 95 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 94 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 98 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 60 97 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 94 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 57 93 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 58 97 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 91 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 50 85 55 85 / 0 10 0 0
MESCALERO 50 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 46 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 47 87 51 84 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 59 92 63 91 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 55 93 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 50 89 54 86 / 0 0 0 20
HURLEY 54 92 58 89 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 53 95 55 91 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 53 91 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 55 90 59 89 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 58 94 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 94 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 88 62 86 / 0 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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