199
FXUS64 KEPZ 101148
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
448 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 422 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
- WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- MOST AREAS STAY DRY TUESDAY, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS, AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO.
- A SECOND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
AREAWIDE WITH SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
OUR NEXT/CURRENT WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE UPPER LOW OVER
PUERTO SAN CARLOS, ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA. IT IS TAPPING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/EASTERN PACIFIC, AND
SPINNING IT NORTH ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE, OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA,
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. WE ARE SEEING
INCREASING CLOUDS, WHICH ARE LOWERING AS THE FEATURE SLOWLY TRACK A
BIT TO THE NE. RADAR IS SHOWING AN NEWARD ADVANCING AREA OF SHOWERS,
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE MODEL
TRACKS OF THE LOW KEEP IT WELL SOUTH, AND OPEN IT UP INTO A TROUGH
OVER THE BIG BEND COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS. FOR OUR REGION, THAT MEANS
MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MAIN SWATH OF MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS AS IT PASSES TUESDAY TO OUR SOUTH. THUS WE LOOK TO KEEP
MOST OF OUR AREA DRY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION/STORMS BEING NEAR EL PASO, AND AREAS TO THE E AND SE,
MEANING SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY, MUCH OF EL PASO, AND ALL OF HUDSEPTH
COUNTIES HAVING RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY. EVERYWHERE ELSE,
DRY AND MILD, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE FAIR WEATHER DAYS, AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TX AND EXTENDS WEST OVER
OUR AREA. THIS WILL MEAN MILD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, FEW
CLOUDS, AND LIGHT WINDS.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE NEXT
LONG WAVE TROUGH PULLING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS, OFF THE SCAL
COAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, WHICH
PASSES IT'S DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN/HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING OUT AND CLEARING
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS
WITH BREEZY SW/W WINDS FRIDAY, TURNING NW EARLY SATURDAY. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY, BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WILL MAKE
FOR A COOLER DAY TO START THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE WILL BE BETWEEN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS MONDAY, AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN OUR GRADIENTS AND CAUSE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING, FOR
STRONGER SW WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH AND EASTWARD. MOST
TERMINALS WON'T SEE RAIN TODAY (KTCS, KDMN, AND KLRU) BUT KELP HAS
A SLIM SHOT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS AOB 10KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH MIN RHS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LOWLAND MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20% TO AS HIGH AS
45% SOME DAYS AND MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE 40-60%. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION. FIRST CHANCE BEING TODAY BUT
ONLY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. NEXT
SHOT WILL BE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES LOOK
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. LOOKS LIKE CRITICAL MIN RHS RETURN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS STAY FAIRLY
CALM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH SPEEDS 10-15 MPH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 46 73 49 75 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 41 67 44 70 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 42 69 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 41 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 51 36 50 / 10 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 69 45 70 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 64 42 63 / 0 10 0 10
DEMING 43 71 44 73 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 43 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 48 71 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 39 68 41 74 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 45 74 46 78 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 43 65 46 67 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 45 74 46 76 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 43 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 71 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 41 70 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 72 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 71 47 73 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 42 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 34 64 38 65 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 35 61 37 62 / 10 0 0 10
TIMBERON 37 58 39 59 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 64 34 64 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 69 43 70 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 39 69 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 64 38 62 / 0 10 10 10
HURLEY 40 66 40 67 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 40 71 39 70 / 0 10 0 10
MULE CREEK 41 67 39 65 / 0 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 43 66 44 66 / 10 10 0 10
ANIMAS 44 72 45 70 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 71 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 72 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 67 46 65 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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