556
FXUS64 KEPZ 262327
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
527 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY AUGUST. LOWLAND HIGHS
100 TO 105 EACH AFTERNOON, POSING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A HEAVY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS TODAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST.
THERE STILL REMAINS GOOD MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE DOME, WITH PWAT
VALUES LIKELY TO GET AT OR ABOVE 0.9-1.0" TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN EARLY EACH AFTERNOON, DRIFTING
OFF INTO THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS WITH THESE STORMS, AS
THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
AREAS IN THE GILA REGION AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ARE CLOSE TO
SATURATION BASED ON SATELLITE-DERIVED SOIL MOISTURE, WHILE AREAS
FROM LAS CRUCES TO DEMING TO EL PASO AND SOUTH ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE ARE VERY DRY. BOTH ENDS OF THE SOIL MOISTURE SPECTRUM CAN
LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD A
STORM FORM IN THESE AREAS. WHILE THERE ARE LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE LOWLANDS NEAR THE US- MEXICO BORDER EACH DAY, A FEW
COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA MAY DEVELOP AN ISOLATED
STORM (LOW CONFIDENCE).
ANOTHER FEATURE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE ARE THE CONSISTENT HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. REPEATED DAYS OF 100F OR
GREATER HIGH TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH HIGH 70S TO EVEN LOW 80S
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
AND ILLNESSES. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MONDAY FOR AREAS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN OUR TX FORECAST AREAS, INCLUDING
THE EL PASO METRO AREA. THERE IS RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THESE
AREAS WILL SEE FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES AS WELL, GIVEN THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF THESE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY WESTWARD TOWARDS AZ, BUT WILL NOT
DO MUCH TO DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE CONDITIONS. EXPECTING THE DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, JUST PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN STORM
MOTION EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS 260-320 AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS S NM,
VRB03KT FOR KELP. SKIES FEW-SCT150, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE S NM MOUNTAINS AGAIN
TOMORROW, LIKELY NOT AFFECTING LOCAL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE GILA REGION AND
NEAR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS. ANY RECENT BURN AREAS AND SATURATED SOILS
WILL BE AT HIGHER RISK FOR FLOODING. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS. ANY WIND THREATS WILL BE
LOCALIZED FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE OVERALL WINDS
REMAINING RATHER LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 105 79 106 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 103 77 103 / 10 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 56 79 58 79 / 10 20 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 102 76 103 / 10 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 66 94 67 94 / 10 10 10 40
DEMING 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 10 10
LORDSBURG 71 99 73 100 / 10 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 80 104 80 105 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 73 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 78 106 78 107 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 72 97 72 98 / 0 0 10 10
FABENS 78 105 78 106 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 76 102 77 104 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 80 104 80 104 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 75 104 76 104 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 74 105 75 106 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 77 104 78 105 / 0 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 73 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 91 63 91 / 10 20 10 20
MESCALERO 60 91 62 91 / 10 10 10 30
TIMBERON 58 88 60 89 / 10 10 10 20
WINSTON 63 93 65 93 / 10 20 10 30
HILLSBORO 71 99 73 100 / 10 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 72 102 73 103 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 61 94 61 95 / 20 20 10 60
HURLEY 67 97 68 98 / 10 10 10 30
CLIFF 67 99 68 100 / 20 20 20 30
MULE CREEK 65 95 66 96 / 10 20 20 40
FAYWOOD 68 97 69 98 / 10 10 10 40
ANIMAS 71 99 71 99 / 20 10 30 0
HACHITA 70 99 71 100 / 20 0 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 98 69 98 / 10 20 30 10
CLOVERDALE 66 92 64 92 / 30 20 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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