857
FXUS64 KEPZ 101153
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
553 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES IN,
BRINGING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE
COMMON IN THE LOWLANDS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SCRAPING BY NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT, WHILE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER WILL
DROP A LITTLE DEEPER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE'LL SEE SOME BREEZY N TO
NE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THEY'LL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER, A STRONGER BACKDOOR PUSH WILL MOVE IN LATER IN
THE DAY, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS, AND A
BOOST IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S).
MODELS, INCLUDING CAMS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT WE'LL SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BEFORE THEY QUICKLY MOVE OFF INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND
SOME ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG WEST-
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE 00Z HRRR IS PRODUCING PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THIS SEEMS
A LITTLE OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE FRONT, AND THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION UPSTREAM
THAT COULD OTHERWISE PRODUCE SOME OUTFLOW TO ENHANCE THINGS. ALSO,
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ONLY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 35 KNOTS. SOMETHING TO
WATCH, HOWEVER.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S AGAIN TOMORROW (SUNDAY) WILL ONLY
DROP INTO THE UPPER-80S FOR THE LOWLANDS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE ON
MONDAY, WITH 90S HOLDING ON OVER SW NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAMP BACK UP QUICKLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
UPPER-90S POSSIBLE AT ELP MID-WEEK, ALL THANKS TO A LOPSIDED UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA, WHICH WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE WEEK. NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, OR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL BE SEEN FIRST AT KELP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY BECOMING BREEZY WITH THE
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOWER
END GUSTY WINDS OVER TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
GENERALLY LOW TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO CONTINUED
VERY LOW MINIMUM RHS. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS AND EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING
SHIFTING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY BUT WILL STALL THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. MIN RHS DO INCREASE OUT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THESE
AREAS BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CRITICAL
RHS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAR SOUTHWEST NM SEEING SINGLE DIGITS AS
LOW AS 6%. IN ADDITION, OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL. THE COLD FRONT STARTS IT'S TREK WESTWARD
AGAIN AFTER DARK TONIGHT, BRINGING BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE
AREA. WEST FACING SLOPES WILL SEE THE GUSTIEST CONDITIONS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MIN RHS MONDAY WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH VALUES OF 15-20%
WITH THE SACRAMENTO MTNS SEEING RHS OF 25-30%. SLIGHTLY COOLER
MONDAY AFTERNOON POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WE WARM UP QUITE A BIT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RHS DIP TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
AGAIN TUESDAY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. AREA MOUNTAIN
MIN RHS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL AT GENERALLY 15-23%. THANKFULLY 20
FOOT WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
5-10 MPH, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WINDS GET A
TAD BREEZIER WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 89 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 82 55 91 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 86 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 53 85 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 65 45 70 / 10 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 86 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 82 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 90 57 97 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 88 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 88 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 84 53 95 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 59 91 61 97 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 80 58 87 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 59 90 60 98 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 87 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 87 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 86 57 94 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 55 90 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 90 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 84 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 77 49 85 / 10 10 0 0
MESCALERO 40 76 49 82 / 10 10 0 0
TIMBERON 40 72 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 48 81 51 87 / 0 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 85 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 51 86 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 33 83 38 88 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 56 84 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 49 90 49 95 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 86 46 90 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 83 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 89 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 87 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 89 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 85 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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