882
FXUS64 KEPZ 260427
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1027 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
- RECORD MARCH WARMTH ON THURSDAY. LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID NINETIES. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO EXTREMELY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WEST WINDS.
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY EAST WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIMITED
MOSTLY TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT, MAKING A VERY SLOW EASTWARD
CRAWL. CONTINUED RECORD MARCH WARMTH AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ARE 20 TO 25
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH, AND WILL LIKELY BREAK
DAILY RECORDS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST. 995 MB LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PROMOTE WEST FLOW 15 TO 20 MPH
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS ISN'T A BIG CONCERN FOR
MOST, BUT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN FIRE WEATHER GIVEN THE ABNORMAL
WARMTH AND DRYNESS.
STRONG 1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT, REACHING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY EAST WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE OTERO MESA, WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WEST SLOPES. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A 15 TO
25 DEGREE COOLING IN TEMPERATURES (LOWLAND HIGHS MID TO UPPER
70S), WHICH KNOCKS US BACK DOWN TO "NORMAL". RECENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTS HAVE KICKED UP QUITE A BIT OF DUST OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST
TX, SO EL PASO MAY BE HAZY THAT AFTERNOON. COOL, EAST FLOW
CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, THOUGH LIGHTER THAN FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, BUT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER GIVEN THE
RECENT RECORD WARMTH.
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND, LEAVING US IN A SOUTH FLOW
REGIME AND ALLOWING A FETCH OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION
WATER 0.50-0.75". BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO FAVOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. ANY
RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND LOW QPF.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE WINDS 240-280 AT 5-10 KNOTS FOR S NM, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR FAR W TX. WEST FLOW INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS. PEAK GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MIDDAY ACROSS S NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
ABNORMAL WARMTH AND CRITICAL MIN RHS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.
WE'VE BEEN CLOSELY WATCHING THURSDAY TO SEE IF THERE'S ANY CHANGES
IN THE WIND SPEEDS, WHICH HAS BEEN THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS TIME AROUND. WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,
HOWEVER MIN RHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD. DEAD,
DIEBACK FUELS, AND ERCS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE ADDS TO INCREASING
FIRE DANGER. AN EXTENDED DURATION OF SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM RHS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE FIRE BEHAVIOR. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR
JUST BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS BUT ALL OTHER INGREDIENTS SUGGEST A
RED FLAG SITUATION. NM111 COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW BUT FUELS ARE IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NM110 AS THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS, BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE ZONE HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL
SPREAD EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH AND WILL ALSO INCREASE MIN RHS TO 15- 20% ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS (25-30% IN MOUNTAINS) THAT AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, MIN RHS WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT 20- 40%.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS WITH THE RETURN OF
CRITICAL MIN RHS IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING VIRGA SHOWERS AND LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
A BIT CONCERNING CONSIDERING HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE
AREA, LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD BECOME A CONCERN. LOOKING IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY COULD BE OUR NEXT WINDY DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 95 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 92 52 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 52 93 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 92 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 70 37 50 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 93 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 82 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 51 93 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 48 88 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 94 58 76 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 96 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 99 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 88 52 66 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 97 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 93 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 95 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 94 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 97 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 93 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 53 93 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 53 85 40 57 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 50 81 40 60 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 52 79 42 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 85 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 91 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 93 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 83 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 86 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 90 45 87 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 85 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 87 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 52 89 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 89 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 90 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 85 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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