702
FXUS64 KEPZ 231722
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1122 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS ABOVE 100
DEGREES. WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SOME MOISTURE GIVES THE AREA, MOSTLY MOUNTAINS, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MID LEVEL HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA, WHILE THE UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WAVE ON SW CORNER OF
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE ROTATING NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN WELL WEST
OF OUR AREA. SINCE THE HIGH CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-WEST, MOST
OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP OVER WESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOCAL. 500MB TEMPS HAVE COOLED 2-4 DEGREES SINCE MONDAY, AND EL
PASO'S SOUNDING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP HAS BEEN REDUCED.
SOME OF THE SUB-TROPCIAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET RECYCLED IN OVER US
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HAPPENS MORE IN EARNEST ON WED/THU. THUS TODAY
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND
EVEN SOME DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE. 60+ DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS. A BIT BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS PWS AND
DEWPOINTS SEE MODEST INCREASES.
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AREA
WIDE AS HIGHEST DEWPOINTS (40S TO 50) AND PWS (.70 TO .90) OCCUR, AS
WESTERLIES ALOFT PUSH THE MOISTURE FROM FURTHER WEST OVER US. CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FRIDAY BUT THOSE WESTERLIES ALOFT BEGIN
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN LATE IN THE DAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRIFT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ALLOWING MID-LATITUDE DRY FLOW SCOUR OUT OUR MOISTURE. THIS
WILL ALSO FORM LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO BOTH DAYS,
RESULTING IN BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. THIS ENDS THE CHANCE OF RAIN,
AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, BRINGS BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. THIS WILL
ACCELERATE OUR DRYING OUT OF THE AIRMASS AND FUELS (ASSUMING NO
LARGE SOAKING RAINS WED-FRI), AND LIKELY BRING ABOUT NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC. AFTERNOON BUILDUPS
DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TO SCT-BKN100.
SOME VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
UNTIL AROUND 00Z. SURFACE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MAIN FIRE CONCERNS THIS PERIOD IS THE LENGTHY DRYING OUT OF THE
AIRMASS AND FUELS. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
ANYTHING STORMS OCCURRING TODAY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE RAIN, BUT A
RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING. THE LOWLANDS ZONES WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND TURNS DRIER
AGAIN. ERCS MOST ZONES ARE ALREADY AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND ARE
FORECAST TO REACH AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS WILL BE A FEW DAYS LATER TO
REACH BOTH THESE LEVELS. THUS, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR
CRITICAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...6-12% WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 12-18% THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MOUNTAINS...8-15% WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 15-25%
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 79 107 79 105 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 71 102 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 70 104 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 104 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 58 83 56 80 / 0 10 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 103 72 99 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 68 98 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 70 107 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 70 104 70 99 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 106 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 70 105 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 77 108 77 106 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 72 99 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 76 108 76 105 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 105 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 105 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 67 104 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 108 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 107 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 66 103 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 93 59 91 / 0 20 10 20
MESCALERO 60 94 58 91 / 0 10 10 10
TIMBERON 58 91 57 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINSTON 63 95 60 92 / 10 20 10 30
HILLSBORO 72 101 70 98 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 65 104 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 100 55 95 / 0 10 10 0
HURLEY 68 102 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 60 104 60 99 / 0 0 10 0
MULE CREEK 56 100 56 95 / 0 0 10 0
FAYWOOD 70 100 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 71 104 71 99 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 70 104 70 99 / 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 103 70 99 / 0 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 68 98 66 94 / 0 0 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF
THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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