518
FXUS64 KEPZ 220443
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1043 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS ABOVE
100 DEGREES. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
- VERY DRY EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE SOME MOISTURE GIVES THE HIGH
TERRAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
BROAD SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS DRIFTED EAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,
NOW ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
RUN QUITE LOW, WITH THIS EVENING'S 00Z SOUNDING AT KEPZ ONLY
RECORDING 0.52" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THIS LACK OF MOISTURE.
MAIN HEADLINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE HEAT.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS. LOWLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
OR SURPASS 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (AND MOST OF THE LOWLAND
I-10/I-25/US-54 CORRIDORS REACHING 104-108 DEGREES. WHILE THIS IS
TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE (5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), IT'S STILL
IMPACTFUL HEAT. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR EL PASO AND THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
SHORTWAVES (ALONG WITH STRONGER FLOW) MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES MIDWEEK WILL FLATTEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND NUDGE IT
SOUTHWARD LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
"COOL" A FEW DEGREES, THOUGH STILL LIKELY ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR EL
PASO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SLIGHT RETURN FLOW IN MOISTURE
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN (BLACK RANGE, SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS), WITH MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS ONLY SEEING ISOLATED (20-30%) ACTION. STRONG WEST FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND AND RESUME THE
PATTERN OF DRY AND HOT (BUT NEAR NORMAL) WEATHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER DRY, WEST FLOW. SKIES SKC-
FEW250 OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS 270-320 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY AGAIN ON MONDAY, WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW ACROSS SW NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AHEAD WILL KEEP
FIRE CONDITIONS ELEVATED, AS HUMIDITY AND FUEL MOISTURE DECREASE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. ERCS ARE AT OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE (ZONE 113
SHOULD REACH THIS LEVEL BY MID WEEK), AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE FORECAST DOES SHOW SATURDAY/SUNDAY WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY AND PUSHING FIRE CONDITIONS TO NEAR CRITICAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...5-10% THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 10-16% THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS...5-12% THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN 15-25%
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 105 77 106 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 101 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 103 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 102 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 62 96 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 105 69 107 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 100 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 104 68 105 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 106 75 108 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 106 73 107 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 103 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 103 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 67 102 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 66 107 70 107 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 105 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 101 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 59 92 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 57 92 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 56 89 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 58 96 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 102 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 63 102 67 104 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 97 59 100 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 99 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 60 101 64 104 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 58 97 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 99 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 101 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 101 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 102 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 64 96 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE
FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page