572
FXUS64 KEPZ 010528
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1128 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1107 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME BREEZINESS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS EACH AFTERNOON.
- PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE BIG UPPER LOW WHICH HELPED BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS GOING TO LIFT OUT OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS LIKE WHAT WE SAW TODAY
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS MOVING NORTH TO
SOUTH. SOME LIGHT BREEZES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN LATE THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST AND ALSO BRINGING
MUCH BREEZIER CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ANYWHERE FROM
15-25 MPH SUSTAINED THAT MORNING. WINDS STAY PRETTY BREEZY INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AS WELL. SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST FACING SLOPES. CAMS SUGGEST
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS EARLY THAT
MORNING. SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SKC-FEW100/250. WINDS WILL START
OFF WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SPEEDS AOB 10 KNOTS. A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-18Z THAT
WILL BRING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
KNOTS ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL ABOUT
SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK. RH'S WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 35% DURING THIS PERIOD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
MOVES IN LATE MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 54 77 59 74 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 50 72 51 68 / 0 0 10 20
LAS CRUCES 50 75 54 73 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 74 53 73 / 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 37 54 38 49 / 20 10 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 73 55 73 / 10 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 46 70 50 70 / 0 10 10 0
DEMING 49 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 75 56 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 78 59 75 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 53 76 57 70 / 0 0 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 57 81 58 77 / 0 0 0 20
LOMA LINDA 50 69 52 65 / 0 0 10 20
FABENS 55 79 59 75 / 0 0 10 20
SANTA TERESA 52 76 57 73 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 77 57 75 / 0 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 50 75 54 75 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 53 78 55 77 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 54 78 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 73 52 72 / 0 10 10 0
MAYHILL 43 65 44 57 / 10 10 30 40
MESCALERO 42 65 43 60 / 30 10 30 30
TIMBERON 40 61 42 58 / 10 20 20 20
WINSTON 44 67 46 66 / 10 10 10 0
HILLSBORO 51 73 54 72 / 0 0 10 0
SPACEPORT 49 74 52 74 / 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 70 45 68 / 0 10 10 0
HURLEY 46 72 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 75 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 71 53 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 51 76 56 74 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 75 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 76 55 73 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 49 72 53 68 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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