254
FXUS64 KEPZ 130451
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1051 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THEN THEY'LL CLIMB QUICKLY NEXT
WEEK TO RECORD LEVELS.
- BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT EVEN BREEZIER CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
TO NEAR CRITICAL AS HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT. NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MEANDERS OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS
TRACKS OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE US. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. A
TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE PACNW SATURDAY AND ARRIVES OVER THE
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OF 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL BECOME WINDIER OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AS THIS
AREA, AND THE EASTERN SLOPES, COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY
20-25 MPH SUSTAINED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A SIDE DOOR
FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING
NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE TULAROSA
BASIN WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE FUNNELING
EFFECT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST SLOPES WILL SEE THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A PRETTY POTENT FRONT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP FROM THE U-70S AND L-80S SUNDAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID-60S
AND L-70S. RAPID WARMUP THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD IN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING SLIGHTLY BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
NO FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES BUT LIGHT
WINDS. CONCERNS PICK UP FOR THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WINDS PICK UP AND RH'S FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, EVEN FOR AREA MOUNTAINS. STRONGEST WINDS
ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN, BUT WILL BE
MARGINALLY CRITICAL SAT AFTERNOON. ERC'S GETTING WORSE OVER THE
EAST QUICKLY AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH ABQ AND SWCC, HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO GO INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN
CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES COME
FOR LATER SUN INTO MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS SOME RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BIG OF A CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 43 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 80 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 79 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 57 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 80 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 43 83 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 43 78 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 81 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 38 83 42 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 45 86 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 75 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 46 83 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 45 80 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 80 41 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 40 83 43 88 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 43 79 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 69 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 39 67 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 35 74 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 80 41 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 74 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 77 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 40 80 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 75 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 80 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 79 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page