725
FXUS64 KEPZ 111634
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1034 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1011 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, FAVORING SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO.
- MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, POSING A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AREA WIDE. HIGHEST
FLOOD THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY.
- TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TULAROSA BASIN
TODAY, THEN COOLING TOWARDS NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OUT WEST TODAY WITH PWS NEAR 1.2" IN THE NM BOOTHEEL AND A
SLIGHT ERO FROM WPC. HREF/REFS SHOW RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF ABOUT
2" IN HIDALGO CO INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS OVER 40 MPH. PWS RISE TO ABOUT 1" FOR MOST OF
THE LOWLANDS, ENOUGH TO SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AROUND 10% E OF DEMING TODAY (NBM
WAS BUMPED UP TO REFLECT HRRR/CAMS), HIGHER FOR THE SACS.
AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OUT WEST, THE UPPER HIGH
CONCENTRATES OVER THE GULF COAST STARTING WED. OUR MONSOONAL FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE S-SE AS A RESULT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH PWS CLIMBING TO THE 1.3-1.4" RANGE FOR KELP INTO THE WEEKEND
ACCORDING TO THE LREF, WHICH IS NEAR THE 90TH %-ILE FOR MID-
AUGUST. SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES ARE SURE TO PASS OVERHEAD OR NEAR
THE REGION FROM WED-SUN TO GIVE US EXTRA LIFT, BUT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY WILL PREVENT US FROM KNOWING SPECIFIC IMPACTS UNTIL
THOSE FEATURES MATERIALIZE. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SYSTEM
COMING UP THE RIO GRANDE FROM THE GULF THIS WEEKEND WITH SAT
APPEARING TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AT THE MOMENT. UNTIL SAT,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, FAVORING
WESTERN AREAS FOR A HIGHER FLOOD THREAT.
LATE IN THE PERIOD, THE HIGH LOOKS TO ELONGATE AND DRIFT WESTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS AND STORM
CHANCES TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM TODAY
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS AROUND 100F. WE'LL COOL OFF CLOSER TO NORMAL
AFTER TODAY AS MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND THE UPPER HIGH
WANDERS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
GENERALLY DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM CHANCES THAN YESTERDAY.
SCATTERED TS DEVELOP OVER AREA MTNS EARLY IN AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN LOWLANDS. KDMN HAS BEST CHANCE OF TS (ABOUT
30%); ABOUT 10% CHANCE FOR OTHER TERMINALS. WEAKER CONVECTION
EXPECTED E OF KDMN. GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE FROM TS OUTFLOWS.
CONVECTION DISSIPATES AROUND SUNSET. WINDS AOB 8KTS FROM S-SW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOSTLY DRY FOR TODAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, FOCUSING
OUT WEST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES AND MOISTURE TREND UPWARD BEGINNING WED,
LASTING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE. THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT FAVORING WESTERN AREAS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E-SE THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES STAY WARM TODAY, THEN COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER/RAIN CHANCES.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 15-35% TODAY, RISING TO 25-50% BY THU. VENT RATES
WILL BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD THROUGH THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 97 72 95 / 10 20 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 93 66 91 / 10 30 40 10
LAS CRUCES 69 95 68 93 / 10 10 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 98 69 94 / 0 20 30 10
CLOUDCROFT 55 74 53 71 / 0 20 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 96 69 92 / 10 20 10 30
SILVER CITY 61 86 60 83 / 10 30 40 50
DEMING 68 95 66 92 / 20 10 20 10
LORDSBURG 67 89 66 86 / 40 30 30 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 96 74 94 / 10 20 30 0
DELL CITY 72 99 71 96 / 10 10 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 75 100 73 98 / 10 30 40 10
LOMA LINDA 68 90 66 88 / 10 10 20 0
FABENS 73 97 72 95 / 10 20 30 0
SANTA TERESA 72 95 70 92 / 10 20 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 97 72 93 / 10 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 96 68 93 / 10 10 20 10
HATCH 70 99 69 96 / 10 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 72 94 71 92 / 20 20 30 10
OROGRANDE 69 95 68 92 / 10 20 20 0
MAYHILL 60 86 59 84 / 0 30 20 20
MESCALERO 59 86 57 82 / 0 20 30 20
TIMBERON 56 83 55 80 / 0 30 30 10
WINSTON 60 87 57 83 / 10 50 20 80
HILLSBORO 66 94 64 91 / 10 30 20 40
SPACEPORT 68 97 66 93 / 10 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 56 87 56 83 / 10 50 30 60
HURLEY 63 89 61 86 / 20 20 20 40
CLIFF 64 92 65 88 / 10 40 50 60
MULE CREEK 61 87 61 83 / 30 40 50 60
FAYWOOD 65 90 64 87 / 10 20 20 30
ANIMAS 67 88 65 86 / 60 40 50 50
HACHITA 67 89 65 87 / 50 30 30 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 86 64 86 / 50 50 30 40
CLOVERDALE 61 80 61 79 / 70 60 40 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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