374
FXUS64 KEPZ 291141
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
541 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM
CHANCES FOR MONDAY, THEN DRIER.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S TO 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AS THE MONSOON HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND,
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE EAST. PWS FALL TO ABOUT 1" FOR THE
LOWLANDS ON SAT AND CLOSER TO 0.9" ON SUN. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BOTH DAYS WITH LOW-MEDIUM STORM CHANCES FAVORING AREA MTNS
AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE (MOISTURE PLUME CONCENTRATED OVER E AZ).
BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE S-SE.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS FROM MON ONWARD WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE WEST COAST. A MODEST INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR
MON AS PWS RISE TO ABOUT 1.1" WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
LOWLANDS. WESTERN AREAS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED FOR STORMS ON MON AS
THE MOISTURE PLUME INCHES EASTWARD. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
HIGH FOCUSING OVER THE CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY INTO MIDWEEK, WEAKENING
THE MOISTURE PLUME IN OUR REGION AND PROVIDING LITTLE IF ANY
FORCING. LOW MTN STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TUE-THU WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWLANDS. THE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO CENTRALIZE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND REINVIGORATE THE
MOISTURE PLUME A BIT, BUT THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST APPEAR BEST SET UP FOR
STORM CHANCES TO END THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL BE STEADY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS OF 95-100F ARE FORECAST EACH DAY. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK, SHIFTING MORE W BY MON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. DRIER AIR IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A DOWNTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY. ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS TODAY, SO CHANCES WILL BE
LOW FOR TERMINALS TO SEE A STORM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AOB 10KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STAY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL START TRENDING DRIER WITH BEST
CHANCES OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW. UNCERTAIN HOW
ACTIVE IT WILL BECOME DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK BUT CAN MORE
THAN LIKELY EXPECT STORMS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS BORDERING ARIZONA EACH AFTERNOON DURING THAT TIME WITH
LESSER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS.
MIN RH VALUES WILL STAY NEAR CRITICAL ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS
WITH VALUES OF 15-20%. MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 25-
45%. 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 100 74 99 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 66 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 70 99 69 97 / 0 10 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 71 99 70 97 / 10 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 53 75 53 74 / 10 10 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 97 71 94 / 10 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 64 90 62 86 / 10 30 40 30
DEMING 70 99 68 96 / 10 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 70 96 66 91 / 10 50 60 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 100 76 98 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 69 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 73 104 74 102 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 68 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 72 101 73 99 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 72 99 71 97 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 100 74 98 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 71 98 70 97 / 0 10 10 10
HATCH 71 102 70 99 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBUS 74 100 72 97 / 10 20 20 10
OROGRANDE 69 97 69 96 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 58 87 58 87 / 10 10 0 30
MESCALERO 57 86 56 85 / 10 10 10 40
TIMBERON 55 85 55 84 / 0 10 0 10
WINSTON 60 87 59 85 / 20 50 30 60
HILLSBORO 69 96 68 93 / 10 20 20 30
SPACEPORT 69 98 68 96 / 10 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 88 56 85 / 10 30 30 60
HURLEY 65 93 63 89 / 10 30 30 20
CLIFF 68 96 66 92 / 20 40 40 30
MULE CREEK 65 91 63 86 / 20 40 50 40
FAYWOOD 67 93 66 89 / 10 20 30 20
ANIMAS 70 95 67 90 / 20 50 60 30
HACHITA 69 95 66 91 / 10 40 50 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 94 65 90 / 20 50 50 50
CLOVERDALE 65 88 63 84 / 20 60 70 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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