155
FXUS64 KEPZ 132327
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
527 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TODAY BEING THE HOTTEST OF THE PERIOD. LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S.
- SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE TODAY
OVER THE GILA REGION, WITH VIRGA OR SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR ATTEMPTED SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD, CREATING NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA. IT IS CARRYING WITH IT PLENTY OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE (THUS
ALL THE CIRRUS CLOUDS), BUT ALSO A MODICUM OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A VERY WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE. THIS WILL ALL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
POP OFF A FEW MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA, BUT ALSO IN
PARTS OF THE SW NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 50-60 DEGREES, ANY SHOWERS (PROBABLY
VIRGA) OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
ADDED POPS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO GET A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN SW NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ALONG
WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST. THE DUST WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON
GETTING DOWNBURST WINDS IN THE RIGHT PLACE, AND SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LOCALIZED.
FOR TOMORROW (THURSDAY), A WEAK TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS ARIZONA,
AND LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IT'LL BE A BREEZY
DAY, WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH, AND SOME GUSTS 30 TO 35
MPH. LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR BLOWING DUST.
OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
AFTERNOONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE UPPER-80S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING CARVES OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS DUE TO VIRGA NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS S NM. SURFACE WINDS 240-280 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT, WITH SKIES FEW150 SCT-BKN250. BREEZY, BUT MORE
CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW GENERALLY 230-260 AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS MIDDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
RISK OF ISOLATED DRY LIGHTING STRIKES TODAY IN THE GILA REGION
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A
SLIVER OF MOISTURE ALOFT WORK THROUGH THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
OR ATTEMPTED SHOWERS COULD PRODUCED LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. WITH ERCS POPPING BACK UP TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE, A
RED FLAG WARNING IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR OUR NM ZONES.
THEN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BRING SIMILARLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS,
FLIRTING WITH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND
PERHAPS A MORE SOLID UPTICK ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
SIMILAR AS TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 69 93 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 92 63 89 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 93 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 71 53 67 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 92 62 89 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 57 83 53 80 / 20 0 0 0
DEMING 61 94 60 91 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 90 55 88 / 30 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 94 67 91 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 95 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 98 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 65 87 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 97 67 94 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 93 65 90 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 94 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 92 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 63 95 59 92 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 66 94 66 92 / 30 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 65 92 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 84 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 55 82 48 78 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 53 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 51 84 50 82 / 40 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 62 90 58 87 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 92 56 89 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 52 83 35 81 / 20 0 0 0
HURLEY 57 87 54 83 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 52 90 47 89 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 52 85 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 86 56 83 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 58 91 55 88 / 20 0 0 0
HACHITA 60 90 58 88 / 20 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 90 59 88 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 84 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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