362
FXUS64 KEPZ 131836
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1236 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MOSTLY LIMITED TO
WESTERN NM. INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING
SCATTERED AREA WIDE. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- TYPICAL MID-AUGUST TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS, BECOMING WARMER
AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH MORE 100+ DEGREE DAYS FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SE US WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS HAS THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE
AREA S TO SW AND AS WE GO INTO FRI/SAT, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
TURNING SE AND BRINGING IN SOME GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE THE
BEST MONSOONAL SETUP WE HAVE HAD THIS SUMMER WITH PW'S ON THE RISE
TO 1.1-1.3" ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, IT LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH ISLD TO SCT STORMS FROM THE NM BOOTHEEL TO SIERRA COUNTY WITH
JUST ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH AND EAST. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE ANOTHER
WAVE THAT WILL MOVE UP OUT OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT THAT COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF FAR WEST TX AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
50S/60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR FRIDAY, WE ACTUALLY GET A BIT OF A
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN ZONES AND THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH OUTFLOWS PUSHING
STORMS FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE RGV. HIGHS WILL REMAIN UNDER 100
DEGREES WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY, LOW LEVEL ESE FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE PEAKS. THERE ISN'T MUCH OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE, BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SE FLOW OVER THE SACS WILL
FIRE EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS AND THEN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS
THAT OUTFLOWS WILL MOVE W TO SW AND BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWLANDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
INSTABILITY ISN'T GREAT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE BUT SLOW STORM
MOTION WILL BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT.
SOME DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS GOING INTO SUN AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY DO AGREE THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES AND
BECOMES ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BUT THE GFS
PUSHES THE MOISTURE WEST INTO AZ WITH SOME STORMS ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT THE EC KEEPS SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE HIGH AND ALLOWS
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LOWLAND COVERAGE DAILY. ALSO, GOING INTO
MIDWEEK, THE GFS BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE WITH A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE HIGH IN
PLACE. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE MEANS, EVEN THE GEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THE
RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE AND GIVEN IT'S STILL MID AUG, THINK THE
BREAKDOWN OF SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IS UNLIKELY. THIS BASICALLY KEEPS
MOST OF THE AREA ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 100-105 RANGE FOR THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY FOCUSED IN AN ARC FROM THE NM
BOOTHEEL NORTH AND EAST TOWARD KTCS BY MID AFTERNOON AND ACTIVITY
DYING OFF AROUND SUNSET. THE ONLY TERMINAL WHERE I FELT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO MENTION TS WAS KTCS AND KEPT A PROB30 GOING. A
DISTURBANCE COMING UP OUT OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO FAR WEST TX BETWEEN
06Z-14Z BUT CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT IS LOW. WINDS GENERALLY W TO
SW AT 5-15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25KTS THROUGH 03Z, KELP WILL
LIKELY KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS GOING PAST 06Z BEFORE DYING OFF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK ON THE INCREASE FOR FRI AND
SAT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWLANDS DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN
UNDER 100 DEGREES AND RH'S WILL BE 20%+ AREAWIDE. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRI/SAT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION AND SOME OF
THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. UPPER HIGH WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO WHAT HAS BECOME THE WEATHER PATTERN OF
THE MONSOON SEASON WITH GENERALLY MOUNTAIN STORMS AND THE MAIN
FOCUS ON THE GILA REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWLANDS WILL
RETURN TO BEING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 97 74 98 / 20 10 30 30
SIERRA BLANCA 70 91 67 92 / 40 20 30 30
LAS CRUCES 68 93 69 96 / 10 10 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 70 95 70 96 / 10 10 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 51 72 51 72 / 10 30 20 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 93 69 95 / 20 10 20 20
SILVER CITY 60 87 60 89 / 20 10 10 10
DEMING 66 94 67 97 / 10 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 67 91 67 94 / 20 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 96 74 98 / 20 10 30 20
DELL CITY 74 97 70 97 / 20 20 30 20
FORT HANCOCK 75 97 73 99 / 40 20 40 30
LOMA LINDA 68 89 67 90 / 20 10 30 40
FABENS 73 97 72 98 / 20 10 30 30
SANTA TERESA 70 93 71 96 / 10 10 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 94 73 96 / 10 10 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 67 94 68 96 / 10 10 20 20
HATCH 69 97 69 97 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 72 94 72 97 / 10 20 20 10
OROGRANDE 68 93 68 94 / 10 10 20 20
MAYHILL 61 84 57 83 / 10 40 20 90
MESCALERO 57 83 57 83 / 0 30 20 80
TIMBERON 54 82 54 82 / 10 30 20 60
WINSTON 57 83 57 86 / 20 40 20 30
HILLSBORO 63 92 64 94 / 20 20 20 20
SPACEPORT 67 93 66 95 / 10 10 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 55 86 55 88 / 20 20 20 30
HURLEY 61 89 61 92 / 20 10 10 10
CLIFF 61 91 61 93 / 20 10 10 0
MULE CREEK 58 87 59 90 / 20 10 10 0
FAYWOOD 63 89 64 90 / 20 20 20 10
ANIMAS 66 92 67 93 / 20 20 10 0
HACHITA 66 91 67 94 / 20 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 90 66 93 / 20 30 20 10
CLOVERDALE 63 84 63 88 / 20 20 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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