827
FXUS64 KEPZ 270425
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1025 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY DUE TO MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.
- WE WILL FINISH OUT MAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- NEXT WEEK WILL START WARM AND THEN COOL BELOW AVERAGE AS WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THAT WILL KEEP US WARM AND DRY. FOR THURSDAY, MOST
OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY, BUT A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY SNEAK INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THAT MOISTURE COULD HELP FUEL A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RUN AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
AVERAGE.
ON FRIDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, THIS SYSTEM IS TOO FAR AWAY TO REALLY
IMPACT OUR WEATHER, BUT IT WILL PUSH MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
DESPITE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR EAST, THE DRY WESTERLY WINDS LOOK
TO KEEP THAT MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP HIGHER EACH DAY SO THAT BY SUNDAY OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. OUR WARM DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY, AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT. THEN ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND GIVE LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOOK TO TREND A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE, BUT THE
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
MOST OF OUR WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN THIS EVENING. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS KELP WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE
AIRPORT AND PICKED UP THEIR WINDS FROM THE NORTH. THOSE WINDS,
LIKE THE OTHERS, SHOULD DIE OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND WE HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS THIS
EVENING. THOSE UNLIMITED CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIKE TODAY
(AND THE DAY BEFORE) WE WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW END GUSTY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE OUR WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA. FOR TODAY, IT WILL
MAINLY BE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH SINGLE-DIGIT RH
VALUES. EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN TO
COVER ALMOST THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH SINGLE
DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WE WILL REPEAT THIS
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TOP OUT EACH
AFTERNOON AROUND 10 MPH. VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 90 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 84 58 88 / 0 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 52 86 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 86 60 90 / 0 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 40 65 44 68 / 10 0 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 85 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 90 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 88 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 59 93 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 82 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 57 91 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 87 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 87 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 86 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 52 89 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 54 85 59 89 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 43 77 48 78 / 10 0 10 40
MESCALERO 44 75 47 79 / 10 10 0 40
TIMBERON 42 72 47 75 / 10 0 0 20
WINSTON 43 77 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 83 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 47 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 86 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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