180
FXUS64 KEPZ 271237
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
637 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR PRODUCTS. IT APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED AROUND THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN TULAROSA BASIN, AND ACROSS
THE OTERO MESA TO THE SOUTH. WE'VE SEEN PEAK GUSTS TO 53 AND 60
MPH IN WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN THE NORTHERN TULIE BASIN, AND 47
MPH AT MCGREGOR RANGE RAWS ON THE OTERO MESA. PX WELL, TUCKED UP
AGAINST THE GUADALUPES HAS REACHED 50 MPH AS WELL. WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO PICK UP AT HIGH ROLLS, AND THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS RAMPING
UP ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE EAST-WEST CANYONS.
BY 15Z, THE HRRR SHOWS THE EAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BLOCKED
ONLY BY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AROUND SIERRA BLANCA, AND FLOWING
OVER THE SACRAMENTOS ELSEWHERE, WITH INTENSE WIND GUSTS ON THE
LEEWARD (EAST AND SOUTH) SIDES. A COUPLE OF EDDIES WIND UP
DEVELOPING IN THE TULAROSA BASIN AS THE WESTWARD PUSH IS PARTIALLY
BLOCKED BY THE SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS. NEAT STUFF, BUT DIFFICULT TO
MESSAGE AS SOME AREAS WILL SEE INTENSE EAST WIND GUSTS MUCH OF
THE DAY, WHILE OTHERS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS, IN SOME CASES COMING
FROM THE WEST. ONE AREA IN AN EDDY-CAUSED "WIND MINIMUM" WILL BE
AROUND THREE RIVERS, ANOTHER AROUND WHITE SANDS NATIONAL PARK AND
OROGRANDE, AND A THIRD ACROSS CENTRAL DONA ANA COUNTY, INCLUDING
LAS CRUCES.
THE HRRR AND RRFS BOTH SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 60 MPH GUSTS
WEST OF THE SACRAMENTO AND HUECO MOUNTAINS, AND A LITTLE LOWER
WEST OF FRANKLINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOW A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 650 MB, SO WE ARE LIKELY SEEING A BERNOULLI
EFFECT WHERE THE AIR IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS BELOW,
AND THE INVERSION ABOVE, MUCH LIKE A THUMB OVER A GARDEN HOSE.
PLACES LIKE TULAROSA, BURRO FLATS, EASTERN EDGES OF ALAMOGORDO, AS
WELL AS TIMBERON AND BUG SCUFFLE WILL BE IN THE "ENHANCED SPRAY".
MOST OF OUR MESSAGING CALLS FOR 60-65 MPH GUSTS IN THIS AREA, BUT
THE ODD 70 MPH GUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT LIKELY GOING
UNOBSERVED OVER THE OTERO MESA.
THE EFFECT WILL LIKELY BE LESS PRONOUNCED FURTHER WEST, BUT STILL
EXPECT GUSTS TO 60 NEAR AND WEST OF THE HUECOS IN NE EL PASO
COUNTY. THEN A RELATIVE LULL OVER EAST EL PASO, AND ANOTHER BLAST
ZONE WEST OF THE FRANKLINS. MODEL GUST POTENTIAL IS LOWER THERE,
BUT THE SKINNY FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN RANGE GETS SMOOTHED OUT IN MODEL
TERRAIN, SO I SUSPECT WE'LL TOUCH 60 MPH SOMEWHERE EAST OF I-10.
THE TCEQ SITE AT OJO DE AGUA IS USUALLY A SAFE BET.
WITH THE UNUSUAL TERRAIN EFFECTS, MOST AREAS WEST OF THE ORGAN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE LULL AREA MOST OF THE DAY, AS NE WINDS
OVER NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY FIGHT WITH EAST WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY. EVENTUALLY THE EASTERLIES WILL WIN
THE BATTLE, AND GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE ORGANS
AROUND 3 OR 4 PM, THEN RAMP UP 45 TO 50 MPH BETWEEN 8 PM AND 11
PM. SO THE WIND ADVISORY IS MOSTLY INTENDED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LC
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, BUT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
WORK INTO THE EAST MESA AND TALAVERA AREAS OUTSIDE CRUCES LATER.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE OUT ON LORDSBURG PLAYA WHERE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ARRIVE AROUND 10 AM, AND GUST 40 TO 45 MPH
AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THAT'S BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO LOFT DUST. DECIDED TO GO WITH A
"LONG-FUSE" DUST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY STARTING AT
10 AM. ADMITTEDLY, WE'RE CHEATING, USING THE ADVISORY AS IF IT
WERE A WATCH TO RAISE AWARENESS OF "CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DUST
LATER TODAY". WE'LL ISSUE POLYGON-BASED SHORT FUSE DUST PRODUCTS
AS-NEEDED. HAVING NOTHING OUT IN THE MEANTIME SEEMED MISLEADING,
AND SINCE THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A BLOWING DUST WATCH, WE'LL
IMPROVISE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WEST OF THE ORGANS, FRANKLINS,
AND HUECOS, THOUGH PERHAPS DIMINISHING TO ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SE WINDS LOOK TO STAY STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
SO WE'LL SEE HOW VISIBILITY RESPONDS OUT ON LORDSBURG PLAYA.
IN TERMS OF THE SAGO FIRE... WINDS WILL BE GUSTY (25-30 MPH) BUT
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS AREAS WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEBCAMS
FROM JAMES RIDGE LOOKOUT SEEMED TO SHOW A BRIEF FLARE-UP IN FIRE
ACTIVITY AROUND THE TIME THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVED
THROUGH SEVERAL HOURS AGO, BUT THINGS HAVE SINCE QUIETED DOWN A
BIT.
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY EAST WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIMITED
MOSTLY TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
OVERALL, LITTLE TO NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES WITH A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW), A STRONG COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY (AS OF 8:30PM) OVER THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FAR NEERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY RACE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
NM PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 4AM (EASTERN AREAS) AND 10AM
(WESTERN AREAS). RIGHT NOW FROPA WILL BE AROUND 6-7AM FOR EL PASO
METRO. ALONG AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY WEST SLOPES AND ADJACENT LOWLAND LOCATIONS. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 6PM FOR EL PASO COUNTY AND
MOST OF HUDSPETH COUNTY, ALONG WITH SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY WITH WIND
GUSTS UP 50-55 MPH. AREAS ALONG HWY54 IN NORTHERN OTERO COUNTY WILL
NOW BE INCLUDED INTO THE WIND ADVISORY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS OFF THE
SACRAMENTO MTN WEST SLOPES, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF SIERRA COUNTY
INCLUDING T OR C. HAZE WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITHIN THE LOWER PORTIONS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL, THANKS TO THE FRONT CAUSING BLOWING DUST
ISSUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME, BLOWING DUST WILL BE CONCERN LOCALLY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
SENSITIVE DUST PRONE AREAS LIKE THE LORDSBURG PLAYA. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DRASTICALLY AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS BEING 25-
30 DEGREES COLDER FOR AREAS EAST AND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AREAS OUT
WEST.
BY FRIDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NM,
WITH WINDS DECREASING GRADUALLY ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY, QUIET AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 60S.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
DOMINATING THE WEATHER AND GIVING THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL MOVE
EAST. AS IT DOES SO, MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OUT OF MEXICO
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE. AS
A RESULT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NM, PROMOTING AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME. AS
OF NOW, RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH POPS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN THE
15-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES (20-30 PERCENT) OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER, A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE A RETURN OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED PAST ELP, BUT THE WORST OF
THE WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS.
IN THE MEANTIME, WE WILL HAVE LLWS THIS MORNING AT ELP, PEAKING
AROUND 42 KNOTS FROM THE ENE AT 1500 FEET AGL, BETWEEN 14-17Z.
SURFACE WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH AWW CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, BUT WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SHORT. EXPECT WE'LL SEE SOME
HAZY DUST CARRIED IN FROM THE PLAINS, BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
ELSEWHERE, THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR TAF SITES WILL LIKELY BE AT TCS
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LRU WILL BE CAUGHT IN A LULL
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AS NE WINDS COMING DOWN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY COMPETE WITH EAST WINDS. WE MAY END UP WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH THE OCCASSIONAL GUST TO 20 KNOTS. THE E TO ESE
FLOW WILL WIN OUT STARTING AROUND 20Z, WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 616 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA, AND WILL BRING STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES. SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL ALONG THE
WEST AND SOUTH SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE OTERO
MESA, BUT RH VALUES HAVE JUMPED ABOVE 30 PERCENT BEHIND THE
FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SEE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AS WINDS GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH AT
TIMES, WITH RH VALUES AROUND 18 TO 20 PERCENT. LOWER RH IS
EXPECTED WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND GILA AND CLIFF, BUT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THERE. WITH ERC VALUES ABOVE 90TH
PERCENTILE, THERE WAS A TEMPTATION TO GO WITH A RED FLAG FOR
TODAY, BUT SINCE THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN THE LOWLANDS,
WE HELD OFF.
A QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO SW NM WITH POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN GILA
REGION. NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO SPRING WITH
BREEZY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY COULD NUDGE
US CLOSER TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 74 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 37 71 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 41 71 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 40 75 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 56 41 64 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 42 72 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 37 68 46 78 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 43 72 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 72 46 84 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 44 73 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 37 73 42 88 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 41 79 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 69 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 43 78 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 42 73 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 73 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 40 73 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 41 75 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 43 74 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 41 73 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 69 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 30 67 38 76 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 32 62 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 33 69 39 77 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 39 71 48 82 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 39 73 44 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 72 36 78 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 37 68 44 80 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 40 78 42 84 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 37 76 39 81 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 38 68 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 44 73 48 84 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 42 72 47 83 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 74 49 84 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 41 73 50 79 / 0 0 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR OTERO MESA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TULAROSA
BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SIERRA COUNTY
LAKES.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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