707
FXUS64 KEPZ 160506
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1006 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WORK WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WILL OFFER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING DUST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY FOCUS OVER THE GILA ON TUESDAY.
- LIGHTER WINDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
UL RIDGE IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS. WE WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A TROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. EL PASO HAS JUST UNDER A
30% OF SEEING ITS FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF 2026 THOUGH SHORT OF ITS
RECORD OF 82.
THIS DEEPENING SW FLOW IS THANKS TO AN APPROACHING UL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED IMPACTS TO THE BORDERLAND FOR TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL TIMED JET MAX SWINGING
THROUGH NM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH H500 WINDS AROUND 105
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS IN PLACE, HOWEVER,
WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CAA WILL ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AS WELL, SO THAT COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT MIXING. NEVERTHELESS, WE WILL STILL HAVE FRONTOGENESIS
TIGHTENING GRADIENTS WITH ROBUST H850 AND H700 FLOW. WE WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS
WITH THE NBM 25-75 SPREAD SHOWING 45-55 MPH. THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE THE EXCEPTION GIVEN PROXIMITY OF STRONGER JET
WINDS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW A HYDRAULIC JUMP SIGNAL AND
SUBSEQUENT STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION TO
THE WIND, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BRING
SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE GILA. ELSEWHERE, RAPIDLY DEPARTING
DYNAMICS AND LOSS OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FOR THE
LOWLANDS.
THAT FIRST JET MAX WILL EXIT INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW ANOTHER JET MAX TO
SWING THROUGH NM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL-
TIMED, BUT IT IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN TUESDAY'S SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CLOSER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO MAYBE 10 MPH LIGHTER. ANOTHER HIGH WIND
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR OTHER AREAS AS WELL. I WILL LATE LATER SHIFTS
EVALUATE THAT. THIS SYSTEM IS DRIER, SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A SLIVER OF THE GILA.
WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL COMING INTO THURSDAY THOUGH IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AS THE MAIN JET REMAINS OVER NM JUST
WITH WEAKER FLOW AND A DEPARTING SURFACE CYCLONE. ANOTHER COMPACT
S/W TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY, KEEPING US BREEZY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE GILA. FOR NOW THOUGH, IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WILL BE AS WINDY AS TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME AREAS MAY STILL NEED WIND ADVISORIES SUCH
AS THE SACS.
AN UL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND FRIDAY'S S/W, LEADING TO
MORE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A WARMER TREND ON SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY FEW-
SCT250. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING, BECOMING SW'LY (220-250) BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE CONCERN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME, TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY, BUT THERE WILL BE A
MOISTURE INCREASE, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE RH'S WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAINLY IN THE GILA REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED. WED/THU WILL SEE
LOWER RH'S WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN THE 15-25% RANGE AND THE
MOUNTAINS 25-40%. ANOTHER WINDY DAY FRIDAY BEFORE WE SEE THEM
DECREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 76 51 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 41 76 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 39 72 47 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 39 73 46 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 54 34 41 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 73 49 62 / 0 0 10 20
SILVER CITY 38 65 41 49 / 0 0 20 70
DEMING 38 74 49 64 / 0 0 10 20
LORDSBURG 37 70 46 57 / 0 0 10 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 75 53 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 36 77 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 43 82 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 43 70 47 64 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 42 79 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 40 73 50 66 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 75 52 66 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 73 46 64 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 36 76 49 66 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 40 76 51 66 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 39 73 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 39 70 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 35 65 37 53 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 39 62 40 51 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 29 67 36 51 / 0 0 10 50
HILLSBORO 39 71 45 58 / 0 0 10 40
SPACEPORT 34 72 44 62 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 33 64 36 47 / 0 0 20 80
HURLEY 36 68 41 54 / 0 0 10 60
CLIFF 34 70 41 55 / 0 0 20 90
MULE CREEK 35 65 38 51 / 0 0 30 90
FAYWOOD 39 68 45 54 / 0 0 10 50
ANIMAS 37 71 48 59 / 0 0 10 30
HACHITA 36 73 47 60 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 38 74 46 61 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 42 64 43 53 / 0 0 10 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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