608
FXUS64 KEPZ 260438
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1038 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR RIO GRANDE VALLEY BELOW EL PASO
THROUGH HUDSPETH COUNTY UNTIL 9 PM MDT.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK MOST
AFTERNOONS.
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY,
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE WHOLE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THEN WE WILL SEE A PATTERN
CHANGE. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO
THE WEST. WE WILL STILL HAVE A HOT DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT QUITE
AS HOT AS TUESDAY. THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BELOW EL PASO,
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE HOT ENOUGH TO NEED A HEAT ADVISORY, BUT
MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (105F). WITHOUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING DIRECTLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE OFF A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BASICALLY BE IN THE SAME POSITION OVER THE NEW
MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER, BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
AND LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BACK ON THE MOVE AGAIN AND IT
WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE LIMITED TO AREA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS WEST OF RIO GRANDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES SO THAT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOST LOWLANDS LOCATIONS WILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW 100F.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WELL TO OUR
EAST WHICH WILL SET UP A DECENT MONSOON FLOW PATTERN.
UNFORTUNATELY ALMOST ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED INTO
ARIZONA. RAINFALL BOTH DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREA MOUNTAINS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH
(HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT ONE OF THOSE IN SEVERAL MONTHS), WILL PUSH
SOME OF THAT MONSOON MOISTURE BACK TO THE EAST, SO WE WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS
WILL RUN AT OR A LITTLE BELOW THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL HAVE UNLIMITED
CEILINGS TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AREA MOUNTAINS WERE WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. ON WEDNESDAY THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AND WE COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW END WIND GUSTS INTO
THE THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS USUAL, THE LOW END WIND GUSTS WILL
DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
MORE RECORD HIGH HEAT IS IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS, FOLLOWED BY POOR RECOVERY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT (20-30%). THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION, AS RECOVERY RHS WILL BE NEAR 100% THANKS TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST WILL BE DRIER
TODAY AND TOMORROW, AND RECOVERY RHS WILL ONLY RISE TO 50-60%.
BARRING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AND
VENTILATION RATES SHOULD BE VERY GOOD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, THOUGH A SLIGHT DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. BETTER
LOWLAND MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 103 76 101 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 68 100 68 97 / 0 0 10 20
LAS CRUCES 72 102 71 100 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 73 101 70 99 / 0 10 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 57 77 53 75 / 0 30 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 10 20
SILVER CITY 68 96 68 94 / 0 10 0 30
DEMING 71 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 72 103 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 103 78 101 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 71 102 70 99 / 0 0 0 20
FORT HANCOCK 74 107 75 105 / 0 0 10 20
LOMA LINDA 70 96 69 93 / 0 0 0 30
FABENS 73 104 74 102 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 73 102 74 100 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 103 76 100 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 73 102 72 100 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 73 103 73 104 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 73 103 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 71 100 70 98 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 61 89 57 86 / 0 40 20 70
MESCALERO 60 88 56 86 / 0 20 20 40
TIMBERON 58 87 55 84 / 0 20 10 50
WINSTON 64 92 63 90 / 0 20 10 50
HILLSBORO 72 100 71 99 / 0 10 10 30
SPACEPORT 71 101 71 99 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 61 93 61 92 / 0 20 0 50
HURLEY 68 98 68 97 / 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 69 103 70 102 / 0 10 0 20
MULE CREEK 67 99 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 70 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 20
ANIMAS 72 103 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 71 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 67 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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