708
FXUS64 KEPZ 290647
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1147 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1049 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY EAST
WINDS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, SCATTERED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
OTERO MESA, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE BLACK
RANGE AS WELL. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL ACROSS SAN AUGUSTIN PASS EAST OF LAS CRUCES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE,
WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWLANDS TO START THE NEW YEAR.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
SURFACE OBS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
JUST EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WITH STEADIER NORTHERLY
FLOW NOTED AT ROW AND ATS. THE COLDER AIR LAGS FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, WITH 20S AT SANTA ROSA AND DORA.
RADAR SHOWS STRANDS OF SHOWERS/VIRGA STRUNG ACROSS EL PASO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. INCOMING SHIFT
REPORTED SPRINKLES WHILE DRIVING THROUGH DOWNTOWN EP, WHICH IS
IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE 10S DEWPOINTS.
THE OVERALL BIGGER PICTURE SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TO ARIZONA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, WE'RE IN AN ODD UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, A TROUGH TRAILING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH.
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL TOP THE RIDGE, EMBEDDED IN
ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AN UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
STRONG JET STREAK AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING, AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND 700 MB RIDES UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THESE SETUPS (RARE AS THEY ARE IN THIS
NECK OF THE WOODS), DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL AID IN
COOLING BUT ALSO EAT INTO QPF TOTALS QUITE A BIT. THE 00Z RAOB
SHOWS A PARTICULARLY SHARP DRY LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 650 AND 700
MB, AND OUR SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RATHER HIGH AS WELL.
IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIP
REACH THE SURFACE IN THE LOWLANDS.
PRECIP WILL BECOME PRONOUNCED AFTER SUNRISE, AND MODELS (CAMS, AND
GFS) HAVE BEEN HONING IN ON AREAS NORTH OF THE NM/TX BORDER, WITH
THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF
DONA ANA COUNTY INTO EAST-CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY. UNFORTUNATELY, FOR
ALL THE PURPORTED ADVANCEMENTS IN FORECAST MODELING OVER THE
YEARS, WE STILL FIND OURSELVES WITH A MAJOR DISCREPANCY IN QPF
BETWEEN THE ECMWF (AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLES) AND JUST ABOUT
EVERYTHING ELSE. EVEN THE 00Z ECMWF, TOO LATE FOR THE FORECAST
PACKAGE PRODUCES A GRAND TOTAL OF ABOUT 0.15 INCHES OVER THE OTERO
MESA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, MOST OTHER MODELS ARE
PRODUCING A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF 0.50 INCHES, WITH A LOT OF 1+ INCH
BULLSEYES SHOWING UP. BECAUSE OF THE RATHER ODD UPPER AIR
PATTERN, OROGRAPHIC FLOW WON'T PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THE QPF
AMOUNTS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, SOUTH OF US-82, WITH AMOUNTS
RAPIDLY DECREASING TO THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY AS YOU APPROACH US-70.
THE NAM IS A FAR NORTH OUTLIER, PAINTING ITS 1 INCH BULLSEYE NEAR
MESCALERO.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 7500 FEET,
CONSIDERING THE RAMP-UP IN QPF FROM MOST MODELS. THE NDFD GRIDS
CURRENTLY MAX OUT AROUND 0.85 INCH, NOT QUITE BUYING INTO THE MAX
BULLSEYE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE UNUSUAL PATTERN DOESN'T REALLY HELP
WITH RESPECT TO PATTERN RECOGNITION, SO WE'RE FORCED TO LEAN A
LITTLE MORE HEAVILY ON THE MODELS THAN IS PROBABLY CONSIDERED
HEALTHY.
STORM TOTAL SNOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AT
MESCALERO (LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE VILLAGE, HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
APACHE SUMMIT AND LAKE MESCALERO), 4 TO 6 INCHES AT CLOUDCROFT,
AND 6 TO 8 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF US-82, BUT NORTH OF TIMBERON,
WHERE AMOUNTS DROP BACK DOWN TO 3 TO 5 INCHES. MAYHILL WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD SOUTH
TOWARDS WEED AND BEYOND.
ACROSS THE OTERO MESA, ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES. THERE
WILL BE SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN HERE AS WELL DUE TO
A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AROUND 700 MB (ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT'S CAUSING THE OVERRUNNING).
OVER NORTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY, PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH
SOON AFTER IT STARTS ACCUMULATING, AND PRETTY MUCH JUST AS IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY PRECIP. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIXING IN EAST OF THE HUECO MOUNTAINS, AND DOWN TOWARDS
CORNUDAS, BUT WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WEATHER, THE GROUND IS
QUITE WARM, SO NO GLAZING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
EL PASO IS IN A SIMILAR BOAT WITH PRECIP LARGELY SHIFTING NORTH
BEFORE ANY WINTRY PRECIP CAN BE REALIZED. LAS CRUCES COULD SEE
SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MORE LIKELY AS YOU
GET ABOVE 5000 FEET IN PARTS OF TALAVERA AND HEADING UP TOWARDS
THE PASS.
SPEAKING OF PASSES... BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE ALONG
TRANSMOUNTAIN PASS (LOOP-375), BUT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTH BEFORE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS OCCUR. IF THE PRECIP LAGS AN HOUR
OR TWO, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME PROBLEMS. NORTH FRANKLIN PEAK
COULD GET A COATING OF SNOW.
SAN AUGUSTIN PASS (US-70)...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE DAY WITH AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES RIGHT AT THE SUMMIT
THROUGH THE DAY. IT'LL BE SLOPPY AND PARTIALLY MELT AS IT FALLS.
STRONG EAST WINDS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL, MAKING THINGS
EVEN MESSIER.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH LIGHT SNOW HANGING ON IN THE SACRAMENTOS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
EARLIER THAN 11 PM.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD OUT ON TUESDAY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE 50S. BUT, WE'LL RAPIDLY WARM UP TO END THE YEAR IN THE 60S,
THEN BACK TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SHARP RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES LURK LATE IN THE WEEK, BEGINNING IN SW
NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPS THE
RIDGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THAT
LOOKS TO MOSTLY BE A RAIN MAKER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULDN'T DROP OFF IN THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE GILA LIKE THE
NORMALLY DO, AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE, AND WINDS STAY A
LITTLE MORE PERTURBED.
EL PASO COULD START THE NEW YEAR WITH A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO, BUT
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE, AN
EXPANDING AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER IN HEIGHT AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES INTERACT WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT, AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INCREASES DURING THE
MORNING, AIDED BY A DEFORMATION ZONE HIGH ALOFT.
IMPACTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL AT ELP. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO REACH THE GROUND,
WHICH MAY TAKE UNTIL DAWN. THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD MID TO LATE MORNING. FOR NOW, KEPT VFR CEILINGS
IN PLACE GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIP, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CEILINGS BEING AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
LIGHT PRECIP WILL ALSO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND AT DMN AND LRU
AFTER 12Z. RAIN IS MOST LIKELY AT DMN AND LRU, THOUGH WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING A BIT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET COULD OCCUR AT DMN (PROB30).
PRECIP WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS TCS LATE IN THE MORNING, WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FAVORED. PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY, BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO AROUND 3SM
WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z.
PRECIP WILL END AT ALL TERMINALS BY EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LIGHTER BUT STILL STEADY WINDS SHOULD STAVE OFF ANY
FOG CONCERNS AT TERMINALS WHERE PRECIP FALLS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON, SOME BREEZY NW WINDS LINGER FOR FWZ113 AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NW. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST, BRINGING BRISK WINDS FOR MONDAY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH
FROM THE EAST ARE EXPECTED ALONG WEST MTN SLOPES IN THE MORNING,
PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE AZ BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
COMPARATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH. WINTRY
WEATHER DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT, FOCUSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH MON
AS PREDOMINANTLY SNOW FALLS IN THE MTNS AND OUT EAST. DRIER WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FOR TUE AND WED. LOW-MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN
AREAS WED NIGHT/THU. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER FOR MON INTO TUE, THEN
REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS WILL BE 15-35% THIS AFTERNOON, THEN 35-65% THROUGH TUE.
VENT RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOSTLY
POOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 45 35 53 / 30 30 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 35 39 30 52 / 30 30 10 0
LAS CRUCES 35 43 30 53 / 50 70 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 31 42 29 52 / 50 80 40 0
CLOUDCROFT 21 29 25 37 / 50 100 50 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 42 32 53 / 10 60 20 0
SILVER CITY 33 42 32 53 / 20 50 20 10
DEMING 39 46 32 52 / 40 50 10 0
LORDSBURG 35 48 31 55 / 20 30 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 44 35 53 / 30 40 10 0
DELL CITY 35 40 25 52 / 30 40 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 40 47 32 56 / 30 30 10 0
LOMA LINDA 33 37 29 50 / 40 50 20 0
FABENS 39 45 28 53 / 30 40 10 0
SANTA TERESA 38 44 34 53 / 20 30 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 38 42 33 53 / 50 70 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 28 43 24 53 / 50 80 30 10
HATCH 36 46 29 56 / 30 80 30 0
COLUMBUS 42 47 33 52 / 30 40 10 0
OROGRANDE 36 40 32 52 / 40 70 30 0
MAYHILL 20 31 25 43 / 70 100 50 0
MESCALERO 22 33 24 42 / 40 80 50 0
TIMBERON 20 31 22 44 / 70 90 60 0
WINSTON 23 38 20 52 / 10 50 20 0
HILLSBORO 31 41 29 52 / 30 70 20 10
SPACEPORT 33 43 28 54 / 30 80 40 0
LAKE ROBERTS 16 41 20 56 / 30 70 30 10
HURLEY 33 43 29 51 / 20 50 20 10
CLIFF 25 48 24 59 / 10 40 20 10
MULE CREEK 22 46 22 58 / 10 30 10 0
FAYWOOD 33 41 34 50 / 30 50 30 10
ANIMAS 39 50 31 55 / 30 30 10 0
HACHITA 38 47 31 52 / 30 30 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 49 27 52 / 20 20 10 0
CLOVERDALE 38 47 29 52 / 30 30 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR OTERO MESA-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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