357
FXUS64 KEPZ 311728
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1128 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE GILA REGION
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
- MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PROGRESS THROUGH
THE WESTERN US BUT WITH MINOR IMPACTS FOR THE BORDERLAND. THE
FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK RIPPLE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW TODAY,
BRINGING LOW-END RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE DIVIDE LATER TODAY.
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE PRESENT TO SPARK A
FEW LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER EVAPORATES MOST OF THE RAIN BEFORE REACHING THE
SURFACE. GUSTY OUTFLOWS UP TO 40 MPH MAY LOFT DUST. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED E OF THE DIVIDE TODAY WITH MODESTLY BREEZY W
WINDS AREA-WIDE.
A WELL-TIMED UPPER TROUGH FOR WIND SWINGS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
ON WED, INDUCING A 995-ISH MB LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO. IT'S NOT A VERY
POTENT TROUGH AND THE LOW ISN'T IN THE BEST POSITION FOR STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, BUT A BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED.
WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO W DURING THE DAY AS THE PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS. 700MB FLOW OF 30-35KTS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHER SPEEDS OVER
AREA MTNS, COMING CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE BLACKS AND
SACS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 ARE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME BLDU CAN BE SEEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY IN FAR WEST TX. VIS COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS 3
MILES. THE MORE WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION SHOULD LIMIT DUST IMPACTS IN
EL PASO FROM THE CHIHUAHUAN DUST SOURCES. WINDS SETTLE DOWN WED
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PROGRESSING FROM NW-SE. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
THE SACS WHICH COULD SEE UP TO 0.25".
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR THURSDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS
(GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH) AND FAIR SKIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL
TO THE NORTH ON FRI, TOO FAR TO GIVE US ANY STRONG WINDS. THAT SAME
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT, FLIPPING OUR
WINDS EASTERLY FOR SAT. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SE FLOW TAKES OVER WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE
MORE DIFFUSE FRONT. WE'LL SEE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
ANY RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD (SUN-TUE).
GEFS IS MORE BULLISH ON MOISTURE CREEPING IN THAN THE EURO ENS.
AFTER A WARM DAY TODAY, TEMPS FALL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR WED BEHIND THE
FRONT. WE GO BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THU/FRI, THEN COOLING OVER THE
WEEKEND AFTER THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM W-SW TO 20KTS, OTHERWISE AOB 10KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. GUSTS APPROACH 30KTS BY 18Z WED.
MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AWW CRITERIA BEING MET FOR KELP WED
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED -SHRA DEVELOP WEST OF KDMN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30KTS AND SOME BLDU, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE, BKN/OVC200-250.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW-MODERATE FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH MIN RHS NEAR OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND
MODESTLY BREEZY W WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AT 20 FEET. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON W OF THE DIVIDE WITH AN ISOLATED
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL BE GOOD. A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH ON WED, BRINGING
A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY, MAINLY FOR AREA MTNS.
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT; UP TO 0.25" FOR THE SACS. WINDS BECOME
BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON, SHIFTING SW TO W BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT. THE RAIN CHANCES AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS WED AFTERNOON.
FOR THU, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, BUT WINDS RETURN TO
MODESTLY BREEZY LEVELS, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WX. CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS WINDS
E FOR SAT BEFORE MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR WED, WARMING A FEW DEGREES
FOR THU/FRI.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% THIS AFTERNOON, 20-45% FOR WED; THEN
8-20% THROUGH FRI. VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
THROUGH FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 79 53 83 / 0 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 79 47 81 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 55 74 44 79 / 0 20 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 75 42 81 / 0 40 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 52 32 56 / 10 50 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 73 45 80 / 10 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 63 40 71 / 10 40 0 0
DEMING 56 75 44 81 / 10 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 52 70 41 78 / 10 30 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 77 53 81 / 0 20 0 0
DELL CITY 54 81 46 83 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 86 50 87 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 57 73 48 75 / 0 20 0 0
FABENS 60 82 51 84 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 75 48 82 / 0 20 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 76 52 80 / 0 20 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 73 41 81 / 0 20 0 0
HATCH 57 76 42 82 / 0 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 77 49 83 / 10 20 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 75 44 81 / 0 20 10 0
MAYHILL 47 67 37 71 / 0 40 10 0
MESCALERO 44 63 34 67 / 10 50 20 0
TIMBERON 45 62 36 67 / 0 30 10 0
WINSTON 44 64 32 72 / 10 30 0 0
HILLSBORO 54 70 41 78 / 10 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 73 38 81 / 0 20 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 62 36 70 / 20 50 0 0
HURLEY 49 67 39 74 / 10 30 0 0
CLIFF 48 69 38 78 / 20 50 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 65 38 73 / 20 50 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 67 41 74 / 10 30 0 0
ANIMAS 55 73 44 81 / 10 20 0 0
HACHITA 55 73 43 81 / 10 20 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 74 45 81 / 20 20 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 68 46 75 / 20 20 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page