565
FXUS64 KEPZ 012334
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
434 PM MST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 PM MST THU JAN 1 2026
- VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND END THIS EVENING. HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
30 TO 40 MPH ALONG EAST SLOPES AND MOUNTAIN TOPS AND PASSES.
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 953 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION WILL PASS THROUGH NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE WILL CAUSE
LIGHT SHOWERS TO END THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL ALSO INCREASE
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH FOR THE LOWLANDS AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES.
DRY, BUT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS A
SECOND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA IN AN
ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND HELP ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS
ALREADY UP DUE TO A TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE. WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER ALONG MOUNTAIN RIDGELINES, THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES, AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
SETTING UP DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HAVE ERODED
SOMEWHAT, ALLOWING HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE WEAKENED AND NOW FLATTER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
GRADUALLY TAKING ITS PLACE. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON BREEZES FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST OUTLOOK IS LESS CERTAIN WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, GENERATING A MIX OF LOWLAND
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST THU JAN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED; HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG
FORMATION FOR DMN AROUND 12Z. GIVEN LACK OF RAINFALL AND SOME
LINGERING BREEZES, I'M SKEPTICAL OF FOG FORMATION AND HAVE ELECTED
TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VARIABLE SKIES WITH
BASES AS LOW AS 030-060.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT AT ELP. WE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AFTER 18Z, WITH SPEEDS RANGING 15-20 KTS ALONG
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH A DIRECTION FROM THE W (260-280).
ELP WILL BE NEAR AWW CRITERIA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE
FOR EXCEEDANCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 953 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP
TO INCREASE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH
COMMON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND END THIS EVENING, LEADING TO DRYING
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS, WITH THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONTINUED WETTING RAIN. MINRH WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED, LEADING INTO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY FRIDAY.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ON FRIDAY AMONGST ELEVATED RH. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL
FAVOR EASTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AND THEIR ADJACENT HIGHLANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY, LEADING TO DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS, BUT RH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE FEATURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES UP WHILE LIGHT WINDS ALOFT KEEP
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MID
NEXT WEEK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 47 67 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 45 63 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 40 64 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 37 64 34 65 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 32 43 29 49 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 65 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 56 34 61 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 41 65 34 66 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 61 34 65 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 66 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 40 67 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 45 69 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 42 60 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 45 68 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 44 65 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 67 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 65 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 37 68 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 46 66 39 65 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 64 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 35 58 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 32 55 29 61 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 31 54 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 31 60 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 38 64 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 33 64 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 34 56 29 63 / 20 10 0 0
HURLEY 38 59 33 62 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 37 62 30 67 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 36 59 30 64 / 20 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 60 36 62 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 64 36 66 / 20 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 63 34 65 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 65 34 66 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 58 38 63 / 30 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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