189
FXUS64 KEPZ 201105
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
505 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 503 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- HISTORIC MARCH HEAT WAVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE NINETIES WE WILL LIKELY SET DAILY AND EVEN MONTHLY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE FIRE CONCERNS
FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE GILA REGION AND BLACK RANGE.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND UPWARDS AGAIN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
HERE COMES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND AS IT MOVES CLOSER WE WILL SEE
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE WILL SEE RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAT, WE WILL BE VERY DRY, WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH'S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THANKFULLY THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF THINGS WHICH WILL LOWER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WE
COULD SEE SOME LOW END BREEZY WINDS IN AREA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT OVER ALL THE WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN, SOME, AND DRIFT BACK TO
THE WEST, WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR (EAST TO WEST) COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT BEHIND THE FRONT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE, BUT STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS, BUT AGAIN, I'M
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL WINDS.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AGAIN STRENGTHEN AND RE-CENTER ITSELF ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
THE BRIEF COOL DOWN ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY DISAPPEAR WITH MORE NEAR
RECORD AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING A SECOND (STRONGER) BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. BUT, I STILL DON'T THINK WE WILL GET BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 503 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE OF VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE CONTROLLING FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MEANS
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SKC-FEW250 DOMINATING THE SKY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY QUITE VARIABLE. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 3-8KT RANGE, WITH OCCASIONAL AFTN GUSTS TO 15KTS DUE
TO THERMIC ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 503 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. REMAINS UNDER A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER
PATTERN, WITH A BROAD DOME OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OVERHEAD. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST STRAIGHTFORWARD, WITH HOT, DRY,
AND MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REMEMBER,
AIR SINKS UNDER A HIGH, WHICH IS COMPRESSED, CAUSING THE AIR TO WARM
AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXCESSIVE FOR MARCH, WITH DAILY HIGHS RISING TO
20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
MEANS RECORD SETTING HEAT FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DRIER, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING WELL INTO THE SINGLE-DIGITS, WITH VERY POOR NIGHT
RECOVERY. THIS WILL MEAN LONG PERIODS OF RH BELOW 15 PERCENT, FOR
EXTENDED BURN PERIODS. THE ONE WEATHER ELEMENT, AND PROBABLY THE
MOST IMPACTFUL ONE, THAT WILL FALL IN FAVOR OF EASING THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WILL BE THE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE
SOME USUAL OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZES AND LIGHT GUSTS DUE TO
THERMIC AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, BUT NO SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS TO
DRIVE ANY FIRE STARTS.
THIS WEEK-LONG EPISODE OF EXTREME DRYNESS AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
SERVE TO MELT OFF SNOW, DRY SOIL, TREND DROUGHT CONDITIONS UP, AND
ULTIMATELY RESULT IN DRIER FUELS THAT WILL BECOME MORE RECEPTIVE TO
FIRE, LEADING TO A SETUP OF VERY HIGH TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE
DANGER WITH THE NEXT WINDY STORM PASSAGE.
NEXT WEEK WE SEE A MINOR COOLING BEHIND A MONDAY COOL FRONT PASSAGE,
IN FROM THE PLAINS, BUT THAT 10 DEGREE COOL DOWN STILL KEEPS OUR
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL, AND THE MINOR RH BUMP, IS
INSIGNIFICANT, AND ONLY LAST ONE DAY, BEFORE WE START WARMING AND
DRYING TUESDAY. A SECOND FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH IN FRIDAY, WITH SOME
LATE WEEK RELIEF FROM THE HEAT POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 96 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 92 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 52 94 52 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 95 54 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 47 72 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 95 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 88 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 51 97 51 97 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 52 95 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 95 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 50 97 50 98 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 99 54 100 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 97 55 99 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 94 53 95 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 95 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 95 50 96 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 50 98 50 98 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 56 96 57 97 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 53 93 53 95 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 50 87 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 49 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 51 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 46 89 46 87 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 94 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 95 50 95 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 89 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 51 92 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 95 48 92 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 92 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 56 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 95 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 96 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 95 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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