804
FXUS64 KEPZ 102338
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AS
A BACKDOOR FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
- A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. MID TO UPPER
90S WILL BE COMMON IN THE LOWLANDS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
TODAY...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHEN JUST TO OUR
WEST, AS IT SLOWLY BEGINS TO INCH EAST TOWARD THE BORDERLAND. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A FROPA, WITH A FRONTAL
PUSH WORKING IN ACROSS THE CWA, FROM NE TO SW, IN A BACKDOOR
FASHION. THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING GUSTY NE WINDS TODAY, WHICH WILL
TRANSITION TO BREEZY AND GUSTY E WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS THE
FRONT GETS A NIGHTTIME PUSH FROM THE PLAINS TO OUR EAST. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, THE SLIGHT INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL
INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS TO SEE SOME
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SACS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE
SURROUNDING LOWER AREAS ACROSS EASTERN SIERRA, AND DONA ANA, AS
WELL AS OTERO, AND POSSIBLY N HUDSPETH COUNTIES. WESTERN AND MOST
CENTRAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET A
TYPICAL NIGHTTIME NUDGE, FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS, AND PUSH WELL WEST TO THE AZ BORDER. IT WILL DO THAT
WITH SOME BREEZY AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE DOSE SOME SOME WINDS VERY NEAR AWW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT,
BUT IT DOES FALL JUST SHORT. RECENT EVENTS HAVE ALSO BEEN CLOSE,
BUT GUIDANCE FOR THOSE EPISODES DROPPED OFF WINDS, AND THAT
VERIFIED, SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE AN AWW UNLESS IT BECOME MORE
CERTAIN.
TOMORROW...THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY AREA WIDE
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OUR WAY, AND SIT OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT TO BUILD, AND KEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION.
IT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS DOWN.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIP TO THE EAST,
WHICH ALLOWS A SW FETCH ON THE BACKSIDE, WHICH WILL BE ON A
TRAJECTORY TO COME OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC
MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THAT FLOW, THAT RESULTS IN A
HINT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS. NOT YET IN THE NBM, SO IT DOESN'T SHOW
UP IN THE FORECAST, BUT THIS SERVES AS A HEADS UP THAT, THIS
OCCURRENCE COULD BE IN OUR FUTURE.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...COULD TURN A BIT BREEZY AS THE RIDGE EXITS AND
THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS IT'S EASTWARD TRACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THAT WILL SHOVE THE MINOR PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO THE EAST, AND PULL IN SOME DRIER AIR ON BREEZY W AND
SW WINDS BOTH AFTERNOONS, IT APPEARS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE END OF WEEK TROUGH PASSES DRYLY, WELL TO OUR
NORTH, AND WE SEE A MINOR RIDGE REFORM OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS.
WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH WARMTH, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LIGHTER WINDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SCT-BKN CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT. TAF SITES SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING,
ALTHOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
VIRGA SHOWERS. BACKDOOR FRONT BRINGS BREEZY E WINDS TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OUTSIDE OF KTCS, SUBSIDING BY THE AM. WINDS
SHIFT SE ON MON UNDER SKC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN MAY 10 2026
TODAY AND THIS EVENING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING N AND W
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS
FRONT DOES HAVE SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT, WITH INCREASES
IN DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL ADD MOISTURE TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE, AND SPILLING INTO SIERRA COUNTY. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THIS COULD MEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SACS, AND MORE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS OF OTERO
COUNTY, AND NORTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THERE ALSO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT A STRAY STORM OVER EASTERN SIERRA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, FOR MOST OF THE REGION, ANOTHER DRY DAY. THE REGION
REMAIN ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SW U.S. THIS
MEANS LOW GRADE WARMING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL. IT ALSO MEANS NO STRONG WINDS EVENTS. OVER TIME
THIS WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST,
AND SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY WED. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUED TREND TOWARD WARMING AND DRYING. BOTH MIN RHS AND RH
RECOVERY WILL SUFFER, AS WE SEE VALUES TREND DOWNWARD, WITH DAILY
LOW RH NEAR SINGLE-DIGITS. THUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
TOWARD ELEVATED, BUT DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS WILL NOT BE
ON THE INCREASE. THUS, WITHOUT STRONG WINDS, WE WILL AVOID A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK, DESPITE THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 89 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 82 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 86 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 53 86 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 65 46 71 / 0 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 86 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 82 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 90 57 96 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 88 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 84 53 95 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 91 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 80 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 59 90 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 86 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 87 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 86 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 89 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 90 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 84 58 92 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 77 50 84 / 10 10 0 10
MESCALERO 43 76 49 82 / 0 10 0 0
TIMBERON 41 72 46 80 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 81 48 87 / 0 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 85 59 91 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 51 86 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 83 50 88 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 52 84 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 90 53 95 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 86 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 83 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 58 89 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 58 87 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 89 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 59 85 60 88 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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