853
FXUS64 KEPZ 050506
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1006 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
- DRY THROUGH SATURDAY; CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AGAIN THURSDAY, THEN WARMING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
OLD EAST-WEST ORIENTED DEFORMATION ZONE PERSISTS JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. TO OUR WEST THE REX-BLOCK RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE BAJA. THE ANCHOR LOW
CONTINUES TO TRY SPINNING UP HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD US, BUT
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PREVENTS THIS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS; THE ANCHOR LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER SOCAL THURSDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO NEW
PACIFIC LOW MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF SOCAL. THUS, RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AS THE ANCHOR HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
FINALLY ALLOW THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE SOCAL UPPER LOW
TO STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY. EXPECT JUST
SOME BROKEN LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS. WHILE THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE, THE SOUTHWEST INFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL START WARMING TREND BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
AND BEYOND.
SPEAKING OF BEYOND FRIDAY, MODELS COMING MORE TOGETHER ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY SOLUTION. GFS, AS OFTEN SEEMS THE CASE, IS MORE IN
LINE NOW WITH THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS BRING THE PACIFIC LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT, TO THE BIG BEND BY TUESDAY MORNING.
GONE IS THE GFS NOTION OF DEEP DIGGING OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND
RECORD LEVEL PW FROM SUB-TROPICAL SOURCE--FUN TO DREAM WHILE IT
LASTED! ANYWAY BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER ODDS (20-30%)
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPS ALOFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
AT 9000 FT OR ABOVE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS AFTER
18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 917 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY, WINDS SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BEHIND THIS MORNING'S
COOL FRONT, STAYING BREEZY AT 10-20 MPH ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR,
LIGHTER TO THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT.
FOR THU, WINDS BECOME LIGHT EXCEPT OUT WEST WHERE BREEZY WINDS
LINGER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. INCREASED
CLOUDINESS INTO FRI WITH NO THREAT OF PRECIP. LIGHT WINDS AND
WARMER FOR FRI AND SAT. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS SUN-MON. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-35% THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FWZ110 WHICH IS
12-20%; THEN 12-25% AREAWIDE THU-FRI. VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO
GOOD TODAY, THEN MOSTLY POOR THROUGH FRI; MOSTLY GOOD FOR FWZ110
ON FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 35 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 30 59 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 30 59 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 28 60 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 47 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 60 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 57 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 31 62 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 35 60 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 61 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 60 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 32 65 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 32 57 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 31 64 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 31 60 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 24 60 27 67 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 27 63 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 33 62 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 24 58 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 59 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 25 57 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 27 52 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 23 56 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 32 60 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 23 60 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 22 60 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 28 58 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 22 65 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 19 62 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 31 57 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 32 61 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 31 60 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 35 58 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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