835
FXUS64 KEPZ 310529
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1029 PM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1011 PM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
- WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE, WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. BREEZY WEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRES
ALL THE WAY INTO EASTERN OREGON. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A STALLED CLOSED LOW WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS PULLING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE, WITH HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO OUR AREA, THOUGH
THEY HAVE THINNED OUT SOMEWHAT SINCE SUNSET, AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A SHARP INVERSION CENTERED AT 700 MB
(ROUGHLY 10K FEET MSL), WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME ODD TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN. SEVERAL SITES ABOVE 8500
FEET AROUND CLOUDCROFT ARE IN THE UPPER-30S TO 40 DEGREES, BUT
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY PLUNGE INTO THE 20S IN THE EASTWARD-DRAINING
CANYONS. THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE CLOUDCROFT WINDS
UP WARMER THAN ALAMOGORDO, WHERE LOWER 30S ARE COMMON.
DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GILA
AND THE NORTHERN TULAROSA BASIN. BUT FURTHER SOUTH, SOME PATCHY
FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE MIDDLE BASIN, WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 30S. DELL CITY'S WEST TEXAS MESONET STATION IS
CURRENTLY AT 32 WITH A 0 DEWPOINT DEPRESSION, AND THE HRRR TRIES
TO DEVELOP SOME FOG ACROSS THE DELL CITY AND SALT FLAT BASIN.
SINCE IT'S BEEN TWO DAYS POST-PRECIP, IT WILL LIKELY BE SHALLOW,
BUT WORTH A MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT (NYE), FAVORING THE GILA REGION, AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE. SPOTTIER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
TEASE THE AZ/NM BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
IT WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35
MPH RANGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY, BUT WITH A MORE WNW WIND
DIRECTION.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND QUIET WEATHER LOOK TO SETTLE IN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT,
WITH SCT-BKN250. WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE VARIABLE TO CALM
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 20-22Z, WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW
NEW MEXICO AFTER 03Z, BUT LIKELY STAYING WEST OF DMN DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER TODAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND POOR
VENTILATION. MIN RH 15-25%. SHALLOW SNOWPACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST.
DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 MPH. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER GILA
NATIONAL FOREST THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE
WEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY 15 TO 25 MPH. THOSE TWO AFTERNOONS WILL BE
THE BEST VENTILATION (GOOD TO VERY GOOD) OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM FOR ALL LOCAL FIRE ZONES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 31 63 48 70 / 0 0 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA 38 63 45 66 / 0 0 20 20
LAS CRUCES 30 60 43 67 / 0 10 30 20
ALAMOGORDO 26 61 39 65 / 0 0 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 32 48 36 44 / 0 0 40 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 60 45 66 / 0 0 30 20
SILVER CITY 35 61 44 58 / 0 20 40 40
DEMING 32 63 45 68 / 0 10 30 30
LORDSBURG 32 61 44 64 / 0 20 40 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 62 49 69 / 0 10 20 20
DELL CITY 23 61 36 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 35 67 45 73 / 0 0 20 20
LOMA LINDA 30 58 45 62 / 0 0 20 20
FABENS 29 64 45 71 / 0 0 20 20
SANTA TERESA 35 61 44 68 / 0 10 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 62 48 69 / 0 10 30 20
JORNADA RANGE 21 61 40 68 / 0 0 30 20
HATCH 23 64 42 70 / 0 0 30 20
COLUMBUS 35 62 47 70 / 0 10 20 30
OROGRANDE 35 58 41 66 / 0 0 20 20
MAYHILL 27 65 42 59 / 0 0 10 20
MESCALERO 27 58 35 56 / 0 0 40 20
TIMBERON 27 56 34 54 / 0 0 20 20
WINSTON 23 61 37 60 / 0 10 50 30
HILLSBORO 36 63 45 65 / 0 10 40 30
SPACEPORT 27 61 39 68 / 0 0 30 20
LAKE ROBERTS 18 62 40 56 / 0 20 60 60
HURLEY 32 62 42 61 / 0 10 30 30
CLIFF 25 65 42 63 / 0 20 50 60
MULE CREEK 22 62 42 59 / 0 20 50 60
FAYWOOD 33 61 46 62 / 0 10 40 40
ANIMAS 34 63 47 66 / 0 20 50 40
HACHITA 36 62 45 66 / 0 20 30 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 29 65 46 67 / 0 20 30 30
CLOVERDALE 37 62 47 59 / 0 30 40 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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