246
FXUS64 KEPZ 200446
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1046 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY, WITH MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
- DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AREA WIDE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK,
MOSTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
BROAD, ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS FIXED ACROSS BAJA,
LEADING TO A STAGNANT SURFACE HIGH OVER ARIZONA. PREVAILING
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SCOUR OUT MOISTURE
ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO FALL TO 0.6-0.8". THIS WILL BRING
RAIN CHANCES TO AN END AREA WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
MAIN HEADLINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE HEAT.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, BECOMING FIXED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY-TUESDAY.
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR SURPASS 100 DEGREES STARTING
SATURDAY AND LOOK TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY- WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
REACHING 104-108 DEGREES. WHILE THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE,
IT'S STILL IMPACTFUL HEAT. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR EL
PASO, AND PERHAPS MOST OF THE I-10/I-25 CORRIDORS.
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MIDWEEK WILL FLATTEN
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND WEAKEN IT SOMEWHAT AFTER NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO "COOL" A FEW DEGREES, THOUGH
STILL LIKELY ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR EL PASO AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. SLIGHT INCREASES IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY, THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
(BLACK RANGE, SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS), WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
REMAINING DRY AND HOT INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF JUNE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
270-330 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS S NM AND VRB AOB 5 KNOTS FOR KELP.
SKIES SKC-FEW150. DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE SATURDAY, WITH SKIES
BECOMING FEW-SCT110 MID-AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS 240-270 AT 8
TO 12 KNOTS. PEAK GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS SW NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD MOSTLY CONCERNED WITH VERY DRY
AND HOT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. OTHER THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND HUDSPETH
ZONE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
HOT, WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. ERCS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE
BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND (A FEW DAYS LATER FOR THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS). SO, FIRE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...12% WEST TO 23% EAST TODAY, DECREASING TO
5-10% ALL LOWLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GILA/BLACK
RANGE...15-25% TODAY, DECREASING TO 6-13% SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS...25-35% TODAY, DECREASING TO
8-15% SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY, BECOMING GOOD-VERY GOOD SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY; VERY GOOD- EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 103 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 100 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 92 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 102 68 102 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 67 100 68 104 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 104 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 95 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 71 104 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 69 100 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 68 103 67 104 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 102 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 89 59 90 / 0 10 0 0
MESCALERO 57 88 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 53 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 59 92 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 98 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 65 100 65 102 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 93 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 95 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 97 61 98 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 59 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 64 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 98 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 98 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 98 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 92 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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