036
FXUS64 KEPZ 022324
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
524 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
- STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE US-54
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY DRY OUT WEST.
- MAINLY DRY AND HOTTER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- NEW MONSOON PATTERN BEGINS TO FORM AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE PATTERN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME TODAY, THOUGH THE WEST WINDS IN
THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST WILL WEAKEN, AS WILL THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OUT EAST IN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5% IN THE GILA NATIONAL
FOREST AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. FOR TOMORROW, A NEW HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, RAISING TEMPERATURES
UP TO NEAR THE 100-DEGREE MARK FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL BE FLUSHED OUT FROM THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEING RESTRICTED TO THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.
NEXT WEEK, A NEW MONSOON PATTERN BEGINS TO FORM AROUND THE HIGH,
AND MORE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. PWS WILL CLIMB TO 1-1.2" BY MIDWEEK, AND THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SEASONAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING
GUSTS FOR KTCS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET.
OTHERWISE, WINDS AOB 8KTS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FROM S-SW.
CONVECTION WELL SE OF KELP DISSIPATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN
RE-DEVELOPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY E OF THE TERMINAL. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
GENERALLY DRY OUT WEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST,
WHERE MINIMUM RHS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5% TODAY AND STAY AROUND THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CALM DOWN
TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE GILA
NATIONAL FOREST WILL STILL BE NEAR CRITICAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS
LIKELY AROUND THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST TODAY AND TOMORROW. MIN RH
VALUES OUT WEST WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
RISING TO THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MONSOON
PATTERN BEGINS TO FORM AROUND A NEW HIGH THAT TAKES HOLD IN THE
FOUR CORNERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO MOISTURE INFILTRATING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LOWLANDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 100 76 101 / 0 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 93 66 95 / 10 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 66 99 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 98 71 99 / 0 10 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 51 76 53 77 / 0 20 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 99 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 101 67 101 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 63 97 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 67 98 69 99 / 10 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 100 73 101 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 67 92 69 93 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 72 101 73 101 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 70 98 71 99 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 99 76 100 / 0 10 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 67 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 65 102 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 71 101 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 97 69 98 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 55 87 58 88 / 0 20 10 40
MESCALERO 54 87 56 88 / 0 20 0 50
TIMBERON 52 84 55 84 / 0 20 10 40
WINSTON 56 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 64 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 63 98 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 53 94 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 59 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 58 99 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 57 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 62 95 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 63 98 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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