198
FXUS64 KEPZ 171927
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
127 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
- MUCH BETTER AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AND STRONG STORMS.
- COOL TODAY, BUT INCREASING WARMTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOCAL
TODAY, TRYING TO PUSH IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL PRETTY TIGHT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LEADING TO SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR DUST ON THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA BUT THE COOLER AIR WILL HELP KEEP IT DOWN BUT BREEZY WINDS
COULD CREATE SOME DUST. THIS CLOSED LOW GETS PICKED UP AND STARTS
PROGRESSING THE TROUGH TOWARDS OUR AREA SUNDAY. LOW END SHOWERY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN NM. A SHORTWAVE IS
WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW BUT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO BRING SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING MOSTLY FOCUSING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
(RGV). PWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
(0.8"-0.9") BUT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DON'T LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE
(~200-500 J/KG).
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY WEDNESDAY, THIS CLOSED LOW IS OFF THE COAST
OF SOCAL WHILE THERE'S A RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS TIME GOES
ON, EXPECT THIS LOW TO INCH CLOSER TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SOCAL
BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE (PWS OF AN 1" WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO
1.1"-1.3" THURSDAY) TO PUSH IN. FOR REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE PW FOR
MIDDLE OF OCT IS 0.5", 90TH PERCENTILE IS 0.8". AND MAXIMUM VALUES
UPWARDS OF 1.15". WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY VALUES DO
LOOK BETTER DURING THIS TIME, IN ADDITION TO 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
ANYWHERE FROM 20-50KT. BETTER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED OUT WEST
DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOCAL
TODAY, TRYING TO PUSH IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL PRETTY TIGHT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LEADING TO SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR DUST ON THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA BUT THE COOLER AIR WILL HELP KEEP IT DOWN BUT BREEZY WINDS
COULD CREATE SOME DUST. THIS CLOSED LOW GETS PICKED UP AND STARTS
PROGRESSING THE TROUGH TOWARDS OUR AREA SUNDAY. LOW END SHOWERY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN NM. A SHORTWAVE IS
WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW BUT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO BRING SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING MOSTLY FOCUSING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
(RGV). PWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
(0.8"-0.9") BUT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DON'T LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE
(~200-500 J/KG).
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY WEDNESDAY, THIS CLOSED LOW IS OFF THE COAST
OF SOCAL WHILE THERE'S A RIDGE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS TIME GOES
ON, EXPECT THIS LOW TO INCH CLOSER TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SOCAL
BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE (PWS OF AN 1" WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO
1.1"-1.3" THURSDAY) TO PUSH IN. FOR REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE PW FOR
MIDDLE OF OCT IS 0.5", 90TH PERCENTILE IS 0.8". AND MAXIMUM VALUES
UPWARDS OF 1.15". WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. INSTABILITY VALUES DO
LOOK BETTER DURING THIS TIME, IN ADDITION TO 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
ANYWHERE FROM 20-50KT. BETTER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED OUT WEST
DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME BREEZES OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
INCREASING MOISTURE TOMORROW WILL INCREASE MIN RHS TO 35-40% ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS AND 45-50% IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. EXPECT SIMILAR MIN
RHS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 20 FOOT WINDS STAYING LIGHT EACH
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FOCUS BEING OVER WESTERN AREAS
BORDERING AZ. ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR PUSHES IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH MAY BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BECOMING NEAR SEASONAL TO ABOVE AVERAGE MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 47 73 54 79 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 38 71 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 44 68 51 74 / 0 10 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 43 68 49 75 / 0 0 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 34 53 39 56 / 0 0 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 69 50 72 / 0 10 30 30
SILVER CITY 43 66 48 68 / 0 20 40 60
DEMING 46 70 51 75 / 0 10 30 30
LORDSBURG 46 71 51 74 / 10 20 40 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 72 57 78 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 41 73 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 47 79 54 84 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 40 68 50 74 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 47 77 54 82 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 46 71 52 77 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 71 54 77 / 0 0 10 20
JORNADA RANGE 44 69 51 74 / 0 10 20 20
HATCH 46 72 52 77 / 0 10 30 30
COLUMBUS 48 73 54 78 / 0 10 30 30
OROGRANDE 41 69 49 75 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 38 68 44 70 / 0 0 10 30
MESCALERO 37 64 42 68 / 0 0 10 30
TIMBERON 35 61 41 65 / 0 0 10 20
WINSTON 37 64 42 66 / 0 10 30 60
HILLSBORO 45 68 50 72 / 0 10 30 50
SPACEPORT 44 68 50 72 / 0 10 30 30
LAKE ROBERTS 38 68 43 68 / 0 20 40 70
HURLEY 42 67 47 70 / 0 20 30 60
CLIFF 46 74 51 75 / 0 20 40 50
MULE CREEK 44 69 49 71 / 10 30 40 50
FAYWOOD 43 66 49 70 / 0 10 30 50
ANIMAS 46 72 51 76 / 10 30 40 50
HACHITA 45 71 50 75 / 10 10 30 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 73 53 77 / 0 20 30 40
CLOVERDALE 44 72 51 73 / 10 20 30 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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