201
FXUS64 KEPZ 041730
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1130 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
- COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE
BORDERLAND. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
- INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND EARLY
TUESDAY.
- DRIER AIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY, AS DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE BACK EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
OVERNIGHT THE BORDERLAND GOT A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT, AND
NOTICEABLE CHANCE IN AIRMASS, AS WE SAW THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO OUR NORTH. WE ARE POST FRONTAL TODAY,
WITH CONTINUE BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST,
TRANSITIONING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. FOR
TODAY THIS MEANS COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL DRY. OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW, AS DEEP LOW
LEVEL WINDS FAVOR E AND SE DIRECTION, WE WILL SEE AN IMPORT OF
GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS DOUBLING (15-20 TO 30-40F), PWAT
TRIPLING (0.25" TO 0.75"). WE WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID AND
LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW, ALONG WITH ANOTHER 10 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. TODAY'S HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE, WHILE
TOMORROW, WE SEE MAX TEMPS DIP BELOW THE DAILY NORMS.
SUNDAY, ALOFT AND TO OUR WEST, RESIDES AN COUPLE OF RELATIVELY
MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE WEST FLOW. THESE WILL TRACK EAST
DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION, AND PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY, RESULTING
IN WEAK LIFT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE BREEZY, AND GUSTY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND WESTWARD INTO AZ, AS THE PUSH FROM THE
PLAINS REMAINS STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT.
A SECOND, MORE DEFINED, DISTURBANCE DROPS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF, WHAT APPEARS TO BE, MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, WITH POSSIBLY MORE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED.
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, BUT LIKELY
A DIP IN RAIN CHANCES, AS WE AWAIT THE LATE-DAY ARRIVAL OF THAT
SECOND DISTURBANCE. SNOW LEVEL STAY HIGH THROUGH THE THREE-DAY
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, SO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE 8500FT AND BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
LATE TUESDAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TO OUR EAST EASES, AS STRONGER AND DEEPER ZONAL WEST
FLOW RETURNS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL FLIP OUR WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST, WHICH WILL PURGE THE MOISTURE BACK OUT AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
AFTERNOONS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY BREEZY, BUT NO STRONG WIND
EVENT LOOKS LIKELY. HOWEVER, TROUGHING TO OUR WEST DOES DEVELOP
AND INCH OR WAY FRIDAY, FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A MOVE TOWARD DRY,
WARM, AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. WE
ARE NOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS STILL BREEZY, AND SHIFTING
FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BE
VARIABLE WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 15KFT. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM
FEW-SCT150-180 TO SCT-BKN150-180 THROUGH 09-12Z, WITH SOME FEW-
SCT110-130 DEVELOPING AFT 12Z. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KT, FROM 050 BECOMING 090-120. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOL -SHRA AFT 15Z, GENERALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LIGHT NIGHT HAS KEPT THE REGION DRY, BUT
HAS ALSO COOLED TEMPERATURES, AND ALLOWED FOR SOME BREEZY AND
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH, REMAINING TO OUR EAST,
WHICH WILL KEEP OUR LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT, AND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN THE IMPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO AND ACROSS OUR
AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL DOUBLE FROM THE TEENS INTO THE 30S. PWATS
WILL TRIPLE FROM 0.20" TO OVER 0.75". ALL THIS MEANS ADDED
MOISTURE TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE RH, WITH BETTER OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES, AND INCREASES FOR THE MINRH FROM THE TEENS INTO THE
30% RANGE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY
AND GUSTY AGAIN FOR SUNDAY, BUT THE INCREASED RH WILL ALLEVIATE
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A FEW DAY. IN ADDITION, THAT
MOISTURE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH SOME MINOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST, SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WILL MEAN A LOT MORE
CLOUDS, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH, SO ANY
SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS AROUND 9KFT AND ABOVE, AND SHOULD
BE LIGHT. RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ALSO, WITH AMOUNTS OVER THE
3 DAYS MEASURE IN HUNDREDTHS, NOT TENTS FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY'S
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL, AND WEDNESDAY BE WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. STARTING TUESDAY, AND
MORESO ON WEDNESDAY, WE SEE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW RETURN AT ALL
LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL FLUSH THE MOISTURE OUT AND BACK
TO OUR EAST. WEDNESDAY WILL MARK THE RETURN OF TYPICAL APRIL FIRE
SEASON WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH RH BACK IN THE TEENS, TEMPS BACK
IN THE 80S, AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS. BY WEEK'S END, WE COULD BE BACK
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT NOTHING EXTREME IN THE
NEAR TERM. EYES ARE CURRENTLY ON FRIDAY, HAS HAVING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONDITIONS MOVING FROM ELEVATED TO CRITICAL, WITH INCREASED
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 65 49 70 / 20 50 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 59 42 65 / 40 70 30 10
LAS CRUCES 46 64 42 66 / 10 30 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 42 70 38 72 / 0 20 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 30 46 28 49 / 0 20 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 69 44 68 / 0 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 43 63 40 63 / 0 20 10 10
DEMING 48 67 44 69 / 10 30 10 10
LORDSBURG 49 67 43 68 / 0 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 65 49 69 / 20 50 10 0
DELL CITY 44 66 40 68 / 10 40 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 67 47 73 / 40 70 20 10
LOMA LINDA 46 59 43 63 / 20 50 10 10
FABENS 52 67 47 72 / 30 60 10 0
SANTA TERESA 49 64 45 68 / 20 50 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 66 46 69 / 10 30 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 45 67 37 69 / 10 20 10 10
HATCH 46 69 40 71 / 10 30 10 10
COLUMBUS 51 67 49 70 / 20 30 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 66 42 68 / 10 30 10 10
MAYHILL 32 57 30 60 / 0 20 10 10
MESCALERO 33 59 29 60 / 0 20 10 10
TIMBERON 33 53 31 56 / 10 20 10 10
WINSTON 34 63 31 62 / 0 20 10 20
HILLSBORO 44 66 40 66 / 10 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 41 68 36 70 / 0 20 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 39 66 36 65 / 0 20 10 10
HURLEY 41 64 38 64 / 10 20 10 10
CLIFF 44 72 40 72 / 0 20 0 10
MULE CREEK 42 71 39 70 / 0 10 0 10
FAYWOOD 44 63 41 63 / 10 20 10 10
ANIMAS 49 69 44 70 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 49 66 43 68 / 10 20 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 68 44 72 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 66 44 69 / 0 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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