634
FXUS64 KEPZ 091052
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
452 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 450 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON TUESDAY.
- WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND; DRY WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY;
THEN BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 706 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE BORDERLAND REGION SITS WITHIN A DRYSLOT, BETWEEN GULF MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST, AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. WE ARE IN A CHANNEL
OF QUITE DRY AIR, WITH FEW CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER. MEANWHILE, A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OFF THE BAJA, TO OUR
WEST, WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE EAST OVER THE BAJA BY
LATE DAY ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, THE
DRY SLOT OVER OUR REGION WILL SHIFT EAST, AND A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE, ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FORCES ALOFT, WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS NE SONORA, AND N CHIHUAHUA, AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE BOOTHEEL
OF SW NEW MEXICO, IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SHOWERS MOVE IN AND DEVELOP OVER SW NM, EARLY EVENING, AND THEN S
CENTRAL NM, MID AND LATE EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE, SO SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING,
OVERNIGHT, INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST RIGHT ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND PASSES OVER EL PASO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL SEE CONTINUED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE DAY, AND EVENING, BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATE IN THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WE SEE A STOUT PACIFIC FRONT,
WITH WINDY AND GUSTY WEST WIND CONDITIONS PICKING UP BY MID
AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT, TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW, THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS, AND THE
FRONT, TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER (LOWLANDS
IN THE 60S), BY 15 TO 20 DEGREES FROM MONDAY'S HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY, THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST, AND WE WILL
SEE A DRY NW FLOW BACK IN PLACE. DRY AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN ON THIS
FLOW, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS, ALONG WITH THE START OF A
LONG STRETCH OF DAY TO DAY WARMING. WEDNESDAY'S HIGH WILL REBOUND
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE BAJA AND EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE U.S. SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. WE WILL BE AN EXTENDED RUN OF DRY CONDITIONS, WITH FAIR
WEATHER, SUNNY SKIES, AND LIGHTER WINDS. SOME AFTERNOONS COULD BE
OCCASIONALLY AND MARGINALLY BREEZY, BUT NO IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. THE MAIN STORY WILL BECOME THE TEMPERATURES, AS WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE EL PASO HIGHS CLIMB TO THE 90S NEAR THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKC-SCT250 WITH INCREASING BKN250
AFTER 18Z. DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z, MAINLY WEST OF THE RG
VALLEY...SCATTERED BKN100 WITH ISOLATED BKN060CB -SHRA/-TSRA.
THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH 8-12 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS EVENING. NOTE: TAF SITES ALL
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDER, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BE
NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY RELATIVELY HIGH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY. WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, MEANING VERY FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WINDS
PAST TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 13-20% TODAY AND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY; 25-35%
TUESDAY; THEN 8-15% FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS 15-30% TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY; 45-60% TUESDAY; THEN 10-20% FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT TODAY, GOOD-VERY GOOD TUESDAY, AND
POOR-FAIR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 66 49 76 / 30 70 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 66 43 72 / 20 60 10 0
LAS CRUCES 45 61 42 75 / 40 80 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 64 39 76 / 40 70 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 35 45 31 53 / 40 80 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 64 47 76 / 50 80 20 0
SILVER CITY 41 53 39 70 / 80 90 20 0
DEMING 46 63 44 77 / 70 80 20 0
LORDSBURG 44 59 40 73 / 80 80 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 65 49 77 / 30 80 10 0
DELL CITY 44 70 41 75 / 10 40 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 48 72 47 80 / 20 70 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 60 43 70 / 20 70 10 0
FABENS 50 69 47 79 / 20 70 10 0
SANTA TERESA 47 63 46 75 / 30 80 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 65 49 76 / 30 80 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 63 39 77 / 50 80 20 0
HATCH 45 66 41 79 / 50 80 20 0
COLUMBUS 49 64 48 77 / 50 70 10 0
OROGRANDE 45 64 40 74 / 30 70 10 0
MAYHILL 40 59 39 65 / 30 70 10 0
MESCALERO 38 56 34 65 / 50 80 20 0
TIMBERON 39 53 36 63 / 30 80 10 0
WINSTON 35 58 36 70 / 60 90 20 0
HILLSBORO 44 62 44 74 / 60 90 20 0
SPACEPORT 40 64 39 76 / 50 70 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 54 36 70 / 80 90 30 0
HURLEY 40 57 39 71 / 80 80 20 0
CLIFF 40 60 37 76 / 90 90 10 0
MULE CREEK 39 55 36 71 / 90 80 10 0
FAYWOOD 44 58 41 72 / 70 80 20 0
ANIMAS 44 60 40 74 / 80 70 10 0
HACHITA 43 60 41 74 / 70 70 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 42 60 39 74 / 70 70 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 53 39 70 / 80 70 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page