151
FXUS64 KEPZ 010527
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1127 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE
DESERT LOWLANDS.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY BEHAVING ITSELF TODAY AFTER YESTERDAY'S
CRUSHING DISAPPOINTMENT FOR THE LOWLANDS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY WEAK, BUT WITH GOOD AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
AND JUST ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE'S JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE OTERO MESA OR DOWN IN
HUDSPETH COUNTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH FAIRLY INHIBITED CONVECTION,
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SACS/GILA.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW STILL ANCHORED OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA WILL FINALLY SET SAIL TOMORROW, CARRYING THE MID-LEVEL
REMNANTS OF T.S. ALVIN UP INTO THE SIERRA MADRES. WITH THIS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD WORK THEIR WAY
INTO PARTS OF THE NM BOOTHEEL BEFORE SUNSET.
THE UPPER LOW WILL TREK INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TOMORROW EVENING,
AND OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF WAS ALREADY INTERRUPTED
TODAY, AND WE'LL SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW. SO, WE'LL HAVE WORKED-OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AN
INFLUX OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE TROUGH
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED, MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON. POPS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH, BUT QPF IS QUITE LOW.
A SECONDARY UPPER LOW STILL LOOKS TO GRAZE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY, WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY RAMPING UP WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. WE'LL BE
FLIRTING WITH THE 100-DEGREE MARK AT ELP BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPRAWLS OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH
TEXAS.
DRYLINE SLOSHING WILL TRY TO PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS
THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH VERY
LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES AS DRIER AIR MIXES BACK DOWN EACH
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE LATE IN
THE WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN'T LOOK CAPABLE OF
CAUSING ANY DUST PROBLEMS, AND SHOULD CAUSE OUR TEMPERATURES TO
PLATEAU FOR A BIT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THOSE SHOWERS WILL
BE QUICKLY DYING OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT FROM SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY WE WILL SEE SOME LOW END
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS. FOR CLOUDS,
TONIGHT WE WILL SEE OUR MID AND HIGH CEILINGS SLOWLY DISSIPATE TO
GIVE US UNLIMITED CEILINGS. THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN YET AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO A BROADER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEK, BUT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EVEN AS WE DRY OUT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GRAZE
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BRING BREEZY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, JUST AS RH VALUES
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 97 72 89 / 10 10 50 40
SIERRA BLANCA 62 90 65 85 / 20 20 40 40
LAS CRUCES 64 93 65 85 / 10 10 50 40
ALAMOGORDO 65 95 63 84 / 10 10 40 40
CLOUDCROFT 50 70 48 62 / 10 50 40 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 95 66 84 / 10 20 60 60
SILVER CITY 59 87 56 76 / 10 20 60 60
DEMING 65 95 65 86 / 10 20 60 50
LORDSBURG 64 91 60 82 / 10 10 60 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 94 71 86 / 10 10 60 40
DELL CITY 64 95 68 88 / 20 10 30 40
FORT HANCOCK 66 97 70 92 / 20 20 50 40
LOMA LINDA 66 88 65 80 / 20 10 50 40
FABENS 67 96 70 89 / 10 10 60 40
SANTA TERESA 66 92 68 85 / 10 10 60 50
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 95 71 85 / 10 10 50 60
JORNADA RANGE 63 94 63 84 / 10 10 50 60
HATCH 64 97 66 87 / 10 10 50 60
COLUMBUS 68 95 68 87 / 10 10 60 40
OROGRANDE 65 93 66 83 / 20 10 50 40
MAYHILL 54 82 54 76 / 20 50 40 60
MESCALERO 53 82 53 73 / 10 40 40 60
TIMBERON 51 80 50 70 / 20 50 40 50
WINSTON 53 86 52 76 / 20 20 60 60
HILLSBORO 61 92 60 83 / 10 20 60 60
SPACEPORT 61 94 60 85 / 10 10 50 60
LAKE ROBERTS 50 87 50 76 / 10 20 60 70
HURLEY 58 89 57 80 / 10 20 60 60
CLIFF 59 93 58 82 / 10 20 50 60
MULE CREEK 53 88 52 77 / 10 20 60 60
FAYWOOD 61 89 60 79 / 10 20 60 50
ANIMAS 64 90 61 83 / 10 20 70 60
HACHITA 63 90 61 83 / 10 20 60 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 88 61 83 / 10 40 70 60
CLOVERDALE 61 83 60 77 / 20 30 70 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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