445
FXUS64 KEPZ 052339
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
539 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
- INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIT AND MISS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- DRIER AIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY, AS WESTERLY
FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE BACK EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING WINDS LATE WEEK, WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
TODAY WE SEE THE SURFACE AIRMASS FROM THE N AND NE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE BORDERLAND, WITH CONTINUED BREEZY E AND SE
WINDS BEGINNING TO IMPORT SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT A DEEP SW/W FLOW PATTERN IS OVERRUNNING THE SURFACE COOL
POOL, BUT THERE ISN'T MUCH LIFT ASSOCIATED. ALSO ALOFT, AND TO OUR
WEST, IS A MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING W TO E ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY. THIS ALSO IS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE MUCH DYNAMICS OR
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE COOL NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. THUS,
OUR POPS, AND ACTUAL SHOWER OCCURRENCE IS QUITE UNDERWHELMING,
AND THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PCPN FOR TODAY, TONIGHT, AND A
GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY UNDER THIS WEATHER SCENARIO. HOWEVER, OUR E
AND SW PORTIONS STILL DO HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, AND
THUS WE ARE SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS, WITH VERY
LITTLE ACTUAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TOMORROW, MONDAY, THE MOISTURE REMAINS, AND EVEN INCREASES,
WITH FURTHER BUMPS IN DEWPOINTS AND PWATS, BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL
TAKE OVER, AND MINIMIZE THE INSTABILITY THAT WOULD FORCE PCPN TO
DEVELOP. THAT WILL KEEP US DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH LITTLE TO
NO SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY FEWER CLOUDS, THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER A FEW DEGREES.
LATER MONDAY, AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE IS STRONGER AND
SHARPER THAN TODAY'S, THUS IT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PERIOD
WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL (>0.01"),
BUT WETTING RAINS (0.10") WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.
THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR, ON DEEP WESTERLY FLOW, QUICKLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY. LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SW U.S. WARMING OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AS WE GET TO FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BEYOND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN, AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST A MORE CHAOTIC PATTERN. A LARGE PACIFIC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST AND ATTEMPTS TO DRAW MOISTURE IN FROM THE
EAST, BUT ALSO APPEARS TO CAUSE INCREASING WINDS OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS. WE DON'T APPEAR TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES, WE
ALSO DON'T APPEAR TO BE EXCESSIVELY DRY ON RH, BUT THE WINDS COULD
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DRY WINDS
WESTERN AREAS, AND MOISTURE AND STORMS FAR EASTERN AREAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL DWINDLE TO GENERALLY
AOB 10KT TONIGHT. WINDS WON'T BE AS BREEZY TOMORROW AS WHAT WE SAW
TODAY BUT WILL BE AN EAST WIND IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING MORE
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW
EVENING AND WILL TRACK WEST TO EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
A BOOST IN MOISTURE, FROM THE EAST, BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT
WILL HELP TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH PLENTY OF PASSING CLOUDS, ELEVATED
RH, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO BREEZY FROM THE E AND SE, BUT
WELL BELOW CONCERNING LEVELS, AND THOSE WINDS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE INGEST OF THE GULF MOISTURE, KEEPING RH UP.
WEDNESDAY WE SHIFT BACK TO A MODESTLY BREEZY WEST WIND PATTERN,
WHICH WILL FLUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. THUS WE SEE THE
START OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING RH. SAME
FOR THURSDAY, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS. NO FIRE
WX PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER THIS WEEK AS WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS,
STAYING OUT OF THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE. LATE WEEK WE SEE A DEEP
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORK IT'S WAY EAST TOWARD THE
REGION. AS IT APPROACHES WE WILL SEE INCREASED WINDS OVER WESTERN
AREAS FRIDAY. RAIN/STORM CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK, AS GULF MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO WASH IN FROM
THE EAST ON A POSSIBLE DRYLINE . CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE SETS UP, IF IT DEVELOPS SETUP.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 15-35% THROUGH TUE, THEN 10-25% WED/THU. VENT
RATES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD TODAY, THEN POOR TO GOOD MON; VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT WED ONWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 46 72 52 79 / 0 10 50 30
SIERRA BLANCA 40 66 45 75 / 20 10 60 40
LAS CRUCES 41 68 48 75 / 0 10 60 30
ALAMOGORDO 38 70 45 72 / 0 10 60 60
CLOUDCROFT 27 49 34 50 / 0 10 60 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 68 50 73 / 0 10 60 50
SILVER CITY 39 62 43 69 / 0 20 60 30
DEMING 44 71 49 78 / 0 10 50 30
LORDSBURG 44 68 45 77 / 0 10 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 48 71 54 77 / 0 10 60 30
DELL CITY 39 69 45 76 / 10 10 50 50
FORT HANCOCK 44 73 50 82 / 20 10 60 30
LOMA LINDA 41 65 47 70 / 10 10 60 40
FABENS 44 73 52 80 / 10 10 50 30
SANTA TERESA 44 69 50 77 / 0 10 60 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 70 52 75 / 0 10 60 40
JORNADA RANGE 37 69 45 74 / 0 10 60 40
HATCH 39 71 50 77 / 0 10 60 40
COLUMBUS 46 72 52 79 / 0 10 40 10
OROGRANDE 40 68 47 73 / 0 10 60 50
MAYHILL 29 61 37 61 / 0 10 60 70
MESCALERO 28 61 35 60 / 0 10 60 70
TIMBERON 31 56 36 60 / 0 10 60 70
WINSTON 30 62 37 66 / 0 20 60 50
HILLSBORO 40 66 46 72 / 0 20 60 40
SPACEPORT 36 68 45 73 / 0 10 60 40
LAKE ROBERTS 36 65 40 70 / 0 20 60 40
HURLEY 39 65 42 72 / 0 20 50 30
CLIFF 41 71 43 78 / 0 20 50 20
MULE CREEK 41 68 42 75 / 0 20 40 20
FAYWOOD 39 63 46 70 / 0 20 60 30
ANIMAS 45 71 46 78 / 0 10 20 10
HACHITA 42 69 46 78 / 0 10 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 72 47 80 / 0 10 20 0
CLOVERDALE 44 68 48 76 / 0 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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