089
FXUS64 KEPZ 172328
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
528 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
- COLD FRONT ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS BRINGING TWO TROUGHS
THROUGH WITH IT. LEAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO SE
ARIZONA WILL SWEEP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BUMP UP TO
BREEZY WINDS. VERY FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
SECOND TROUGH NOW INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND WILL BE PUSHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT NOW INTO FAR NW NEW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND THEN BACK DOWN AGAIN JUST INTO NE NEW MEXICO. PACIFIC PORTION
OF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING,
TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH. SOME BRIEF GUSTY NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE SIERRA LAKES REGION AND TULAROSA BASIN. CONTINENTAL
PORTION OF THE FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG
PRESSURE RISES OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD ALLOW SOME BREEZY
WINDS SATURDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG WEST
SLOPES OF TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS.
NEXT PACIFIC LOW WILL BE MAIN DRIVER FOR WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LOW WILL PUSH A VORT CENTER OUT AHEAD OF IT
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL BACKING FLOW WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW SOME GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE UP
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE
LINGERS INTO MONDAY SO FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE
EAST.
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW (NEARING THE
NOCAL COAST) WILL FINALLY FLUSH THE MOISTURE OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS AND BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. WEDNESDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY, LOOK LIKE THE WINDIEST DAYS NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO ELEVATE MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH UNLIMITED SURFACE VIS. FROPA
TONIGHT BETWEEN 07-10Z. WIND SHIFT TO 010-060 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN 070-110 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES
PRIMARILY SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, WITH RED FLAG WARNING OUT UNTIL 8
PM THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT TO NORTH AND
THEN TO EAST SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING. CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST AS QUICK, BRIEF
MOISTURE INTRUSION OCCURS. THEN BACK TO DRY, BREEZY AFTERNOONS
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH CRITICAL AGAIN
BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
MIN RHS: LOWLANDS 10-15% TODAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 15-30%
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOWERING AGAIN FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
MOUNTAINS 13-23% TODAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 25-40% SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, THEN LOWERING AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
VENT RATES EXCELLENT TODAY, THEN GOOD-VERY GOOD SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 76 50 73 / 0 0 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA 48 69 44 67 / 0 0 0 30
LAS CRUCES 45 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 43 74 41 73 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 29 53 28 53 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 40 71 42 66 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 46 78 46 73 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 41 77 49 71 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 76 53 72 / 0 0 0 20
DELL CITY 45 72 41 70 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 53 79 51 74 / 0 0 0 30
LOMA LINDA 45 68 44 65 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 50 77 51 74 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 48 74 49 71 / 0 0 0 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 75 49 73 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 43 75 43 72 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 45 78 43 75 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 49 79 51 73 / 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 44 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 30 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 31 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 34 61 32 59 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 30 66 33 65 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 41 71 43 70 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 42 74 40 72 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 34 72 33 68 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 38 72 40 68 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 37 78 36 75 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 37 75 33 72 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 41 71 42 67 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 45 77 49 73 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 43 76 48 71 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 77 49 73 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 46 74 49 70 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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