979
FXUS64 KEPZ 151729
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1029 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WORK WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WILL OFFER WINDY CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING DUST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY FOCUS OVER THE GILA ON TUESDAY.
- LIGHTER WINDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
SPRING WILL BE HERE THIS WEEK, WHICH MEANS ALMOST DAILY BREEZY TO
WINDY DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN AND OUT OF THE
BORDERLAND WITH INCREASING WINDS. MONDAY LOOKS VERY NICE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, MAY EVEN
SEE AN 80 IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN FAR WEST TX, THE AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR. MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL START SEEING A LITTLE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING AS INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL
PIECE OF ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH SOME
WINDS AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY STARTS THE REAL WINDS. SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD
THE BIG BEND AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND MOVING AT LEAST THROUGH SW NM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH H85
WINDS OF 25-35KTS AND H70 UP NEAR 70KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
50KTS FOR THE LOWLANDS. HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. CURRENT THINKING IS
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS, BUT A COUPLE
NEGATIVES TO REACHING THESE SPEEDS ARE THE CLOUD COVER AND THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN IS TYPICAL FOR OUR
STRONGEST WIND EVENTS. DID RAISE NBM WINDS ABOUT 5-8KTS TO GET TO
NEAR ADVISORY SPEEDS. ADDED BLOWING DUST IN THE USUAL CORRIDORS AS
WELL, WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST TEST OF THE YEAR, WE WILL SEE HOW
THE SOILS RESPOND TO THESE WIND SPEEDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. AS IS TYPICAL
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IN SPRING, THE MOISTURE DECREASES AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN AREAS TO ACTUALLY SEE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND AREA MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO BE AROUND 7000-7500FT IN THE GILA REGION WITH 1-2"
POSSIBLE. HIGHER SNOW LEVELS IN THE SACS BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DID TAPER BACK POPS FROM DMN EASTWARD IF
THEY WERE ABOVE 20%.
WED/THU LOOK SIMILAR WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS SOUTH, BUT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN TUE.
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY AND COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS THAN WED/THU ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
TIMING ON THIS ONE WILL DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE WINDS GET, THERE
IS A LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS WITH WHEN THAT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WIND DIRECTION AT THIS TIME DOES LOOK A LITTLE MORE WEST
THAN SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP DUST POTENTIAL DOWN A LITTLE
BIT. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, SOME PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT, BUT BE LIMITED TO MAINLY AREA MOUNTAINS AND FAR WEST.
DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OFF TO THE WEST. MODELS DO AGREE WITH BRINGING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, SO WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AND HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT150-200 SCT-BKN200-250 THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AOB 12KTS, EXCEPT A LITTLE
STRONGER WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS AROUND KTCS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE CONCERN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME, TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY, BUT THERE WILL BE A
MOISTURE INCREASE, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE RH'S WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAINLY IN THE GILA REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED. WED/THU WILL SEE
LOWER RH'S WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN THE 15-25% RANGE AND THE
MOUNTAINS 25-40%. ANOTHER WINDY DAY FRIDAY BEFORE WE SEE THEM
DECREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 77 54 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 76 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 39 72 49 64 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 39 73 46 65 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 37 54 39 42 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 74 50 62 / 0 0 10 20
SILVER CITY 39 66 42 50 / 0 0 20 70
DEMING 37 74 49 64 / 0 0 10 30
LORDSBURG 36 71 47 57 / 0 0 10 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 75 53 70 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 36 77 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 39 82 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 39 70 48 65 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 39 79 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 39 74 50 67 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 74 53 67 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 74 48 65 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 38 76 50 66 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 39 77 51 67 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 39 73 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 39 70 45 57 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 35 65 41 53 / 0 0 0 20
TIMBERON 35 62 39 52 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 27 67 37 52 / 0 0 10 40
HILLSBORO 39 71 46 59 / 0 0 10 30
SPACEPORT 35 72 45 63 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 26 65 38 48 / 0 0 20 80
HURLEY 35 69 43 55 / 0 0 10 60
CLIFF 29 71 41 53 / 0 0 20 80
MULE CREEK 27 66 39 52 / 0 0 30 80
FAYWOOD 39 68 45 55 / 0 0 10 50
ANIMAS 37 71 48 59 / 0 0 10 40
HACHITA 36 74 48 61 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 38 74 47 62 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 42 64 45 53 / 0 0 10 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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