848
FXUS64 KEPZ 060359
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
959 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY, THOUGH LIMITED MOSTLY TO
AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- DRIER AND WARMER ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MANY LOWLAND
AREAS SEEING THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BIG BEND AND DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST.
WRAP AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CWA. DECENT
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IN ONE WAVE THAT DISSIPATED IN THE SOUTH. A
SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION IS FLARING UP OVER SIERRA AND OTERO
COUNTIES THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG OUTFLOW AHEAD OF IT.
HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS, BRINGING IT DOWN TO THE LAS
CRUCES-EL PASO CORRIDOR AROUND 04Z-05Z. T OR C AND THE SPACEPORT
HAVE BOTH REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 50-65 MPH. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
SOME AS THEY TRAVEL SOUTH, BUT 40-50 MPH GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE DONA
ANA, LUNA, AND EL PASO COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FIRE OFF ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
OUTFLOW. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ENDING
CONVECTION BY 07Z-08Z.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RAMPING DOWN OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
STILL ON SCHEDULE. UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
SATURDAY. A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE SACRAMENT MTNS COULD
LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THERE. OTHERWISE THIS PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH, AND COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS, WILL PUSH
LOWLAND HIGHS TO AROUND 100-103 BY SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SUB-TROPICAL HIGH BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA AND TEXAS TO NEW MEXICO. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SIMILAR HERE WITH DRAWING SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE UP AROUND THE
HIGH. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY SO
GRIDS SHOW THIS. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
ECMWF SO THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY/FRIDAY SLOWS TO A TRICKLE.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE SPIGOT FULLY OPEN BOTH DAYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. KEPT THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP WATCHING FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SCT090 SCT-BKN150 BKN-OVC250. ISOLATED BKN060CB 4-6SM -TSRA WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DONE BY 07Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 6-10 KNOTS.
STRONG, GUSTY STORM OUTFLOW DEVELOPED IN SIERRA COUNTY AND RAPIDLY
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS DONA ANA AND LUNA COUNTIES ON THE WAY TO EL PASO
COUNTY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS OUTFLOW AS
IT SPREADS OUT ACROSS LUNA, DONA ANA, AND EL PASO COUNTIES. THESE
WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BY
AROUND 07Z-08Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY BUT LIKELY LIMITED TO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
MOISTURE BEGINS EXITING THE AREA. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS TOWARD THE AZ BORDER WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
HUDSPETH COUNTY AND INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BY SATURDAY,
AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID TEENS WHILE
AREAS EAST HOLD ONTO THE 20S. THIS WILL LEAD TO POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES SATURDAY NIGHT, AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10%
WHILE HIGHS TOP OUT UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, INCREASING MORE
FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO BE CONFINED TO EASTERLY
AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH ALL AREAS STAYING DRY ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, STAYING UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VENT RATES WILL RANGE POOR EAST TO EXCELLENT WEST TODAY.
WESTERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE A CATEGORY TO FAIR ON SATURDAY WITH ALL
AREAS RANGING VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 95 71 99 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 87 60 93 / 30 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 94 65 96 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 91 67 96 / 30 0 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 70 47 75 / 40 20 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 94 67 95 / 30 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 53 89 58 87 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 60 96 65 98 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 61 95 62 94 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 94 70 97 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 58 89 59 97 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 96 65 100 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 86 63 90 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 61 96 66 100 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 60 94 66 96 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 93 74 97 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 93 63 96 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 61 97 64 99 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 97 70 97 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 90 61 95 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 51 80 53 87 / 40 40 10 10
MESCALERO 49 80 52 84 / 40 20 10 0
TIMBERON 46 75 49 81 / 30 30 0 0
WINSTON 53 87 56 87 / 30 10 10 0
HILLSBORO 61 92 65 93 / 30 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 56 93 60 95 / 30 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 90 45 88 / 20 10 0 0
HURLEY 56 91 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 96 45 94 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 44 91 41 89 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 91 61 90 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 61 95 61 94 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 60 94 62 94 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 93 62 93 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 57 88 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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