604
FXUS64 KEPZ 191812
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1212 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- DRY, SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID MAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH
YESTERDAY'S STRONGER JET STREAK FLOW EXITING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHTER WINDS THAN WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXISTS JUST TO OUR EAST, RIDING UP AGAINST
THE GUADALUPE/SACRAMENTO RANGE. DRY, SOUTHWEST BL FLOW WILL KEEP
THIS MOISTURE OFF TO OUR EAST TODAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOW-END BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. SHOULD
SEE SOME MID-AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 35 ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MAY WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING THE DRYLINE
BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST TO "SLOSH" WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-54
CORRIDOR. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S ACROSS HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY. MODELS KEEP THIS
BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF EL PASO, AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH IT BACK EAST
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO NOTICEABLE IMPACTS OUTSIDE
OF A HUMID MORNING FOR FAR WEST TEXAS.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW. VERY SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION
10 TO 20 MPH. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CUTOFF LOW APART FROM THE PREVAILING JET FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY/FRIDAY, KEEPING LOW-END BREEZY WEST WINDS IN
PLACE AND SLOWLY BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN INITIALLY,
THEN POSSIBLY A FEW LOWLAND SHOWERS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. OVERALL, RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS PRETTY SLIM GIVEN THE MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES. BUT
AT LEAST THEY'RE NOT ZERO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
WINDS 210-240 AT 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS SW NM. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SKIES SKC,
BECOMING SCT-BKN250 AFTER 00Z. LIGHT W WIND OVERNIGHT AOB 08
KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND
MIN RH 8 TO 12%. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AREA WIDE WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. TYPICAL MID MAY TEMPERATURES. SIMILAR WEATHER ON THURSDAY,
THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL CUMULUS GROWTH OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN.
MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND, PRIMARILY OVER LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST. THIS COULD LEAD
TO ERRATIC AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS SATURDAY/SUNDAY THERE.
CURRENT FUEL STATUS SHOWS ERCS RISING PAST THE 90TH PERCENTILE
THIS WEEK, DUE IN PART TO SUSTAINED DRY, BREEZY WEATHER. FOREST
CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE STARTS. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN IN NEW LIGHTNING STARTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 86 55 83 / 0 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 54 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 65 43 63 / 0 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 79 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 88 55 87 / 0 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 61 93 61 90 / 0 10 10 10
LOMA LINDA 58 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 60 91 60 89 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 57 87 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 55 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 76 47 75 / 0 10 10 10
MESCALERO 47 76 46 74 / 0 10 0 10
TIMBERON 45 73 44 72 / 0 10 10 0
WINSTON 47 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 55 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 55 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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