849
FXUS64 KEPZ 050949
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 AM MST FRI MAR 5 2021
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
TURN OUT OF THE EAST. SPOTTY BREEZY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE OUR
ONE DAY WITHOUT ANY BREEZES AND HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE 70S.
DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE OUR
WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH EL PASO POTENTIALLY SEEING THEIR
FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE NOVEMBER. THE WINDIEST DAYS WILL BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY BE ON THE HORIZON
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IT IT'S PLACE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST AND BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. NEAR THE SURFACE, WE CONTINUE TO
SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHICH HAS
PUSHED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. THE DEEP WEST FLOW ALOFT
IS STREAMING A BIT OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES, AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
PERIOD. DESPITE THOSE CLOUDS, MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM NW TO N TO NE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THOSE NE SURFACE WINDS WILL
IMPORT COOLER AIR INTO THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA, MAKING FOR A
COOLER DAY EAST AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE FURTHER EAST, THE COOLER, AND
THE BIGGER THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY. TO THE WEST
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY NEAR YESTERDAY'S READINGS, EVEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER. ALL IN ALL, TODAY'S HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TODAY'S WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WE
SAW YESTERDAY, BUT OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COOLER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT COOLER, BUT NO COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING EFFECTS ON
THE BORDERLAND SATURDAY. MOST THE GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN
AREAS BY DAYBREAK; HOWEVER, WESTERN LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ALONG THE
NM/AZ BORDER WILL HOLD ONTO SOME BREEZES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO COOL ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES AS
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY GET PUSHED
BACK TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE A
VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN AND SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR ONE DAY BREAK FROM ANY KIND OF
BREEZINESS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, SO BE SURE TO SOAK IT IN WHILE YOU
CAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
LOWLAND LOCATIONS.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL START TO TRANSITION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WE LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND OUR FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AS BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US AND
EASTERN PACIFIC. A TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH IN AT THIS TIME AND USHER IN AN ABUNDANCE OF
HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT MONDAY TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUD COVER, MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF
OUR WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE WINDS FLIP
AROUND AND BECOME WESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS, WITH EL PASO POSSIBLY
HAVING THEIR FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE NOVEMBER 21ST. WHILE THIS
WILL BE 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, IT'S NOT THAT UNCOMMON TO SEE
OUR FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR AROUND THIS TIME. IN FACT,
WE'VE HIT 80 DEGREES IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH DURING
ROUGHLY 16 OUT OF THE LAST 20 YEARS. A FEW LIGHT BREEZES WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A 500MB JET STREAK PASSES BY
OVERHEAD.
TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS STICK
AROUND AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AND
ATTEMPT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT MORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND PERHAPS
EVEN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN HAVE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE GILA REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT STARTS TO NUDGE IN
FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PWS JUMPING ABOVE HALF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
9000 FEET, SO MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP WOULD FALL AS RAIN.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
STALLING HALFWAY ACROSS OUR CWA BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL SHIFT TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE COMING TO AN END AS THE TAP OF
MOISTURE EXITS TO THE EAST. WE MAY FINALLY START TO SEE SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL COOL
INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY, WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST REMAIN IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THE BIGGER IMPACT TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO THURSDAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. DECENT
LEESIDE TROUGHING, A PASSING COLD FRONT, AND A 500MB JET STREAK
WILL ALL ALIGN TO CREATE SEVERAL WINDY DAYS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30MPH ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
ALREADY AGREE THAT WE'LL NEED WIND PRODUCTS OUT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS JUMP TO 25-35MPH,
WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS ON THE GFS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS BY, THOUGH MODELS HANDLE THE TIMING AND LOCATION
A BIT DIFFERENT. EITHER WAY, EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BREEZY WINDS
ONCE AGAIN, BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES BACK INTO THE 60S AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSSIBLY PUSHES THROUGH. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE
SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THEY BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE BORDERLAND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS THAT A POTENT BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN AT THE SAME
TIME. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION, MORE WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WOULD ALSO BE LIKELY, THOUGH IT'S TOO SOON
TO DISCLOSE EXACT DETAILS.
AVIATION
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES SKC NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR,
FEW-SCT250 SOUTH OF I-10. UNRESTRICTED VSBY. SURFACE WINDS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST 5-12KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
YESTERDAY'S WIND-MAKER, THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, IS
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY - TO RELAX THOSE CONCERNS. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH, AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY. THAT
INBOUND AIR WILL ALSO HAVE SOME MEAGER GULF MOISTURE IN IT TO RAISE
DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATE RH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S MINS, DESPITE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THUS RH MIN VALUES TODAY WILL BE HIGHER
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND LOWER TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
SHOW A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT ALSO FROM EAST TO WEST, WITH EASTERN
AREAS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (AND NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES), AND WESTERN AREAS BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
(AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES). WITH WINDS DECREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY, TRANSPORT WINDS WILL DROP
RESULTING IN LOWER VENTILATION CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
THROUGH MONDAY EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMING CONDITIONS, WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DAILY HIGHS COULD WARM TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE AS A DEEP, BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 42 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 35 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 38 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 23 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 37 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 63 37 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 36 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 70 39 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 43 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 63 30 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 61 37 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 68 40 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 66 38 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 42 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 66 35 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 68 35 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 69 41 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 66 38 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 27 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 49 25 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 25 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 60 26 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 62 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 66 34 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 60 30 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 64 32 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 68 35 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 67 39 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 36 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 70 40 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 68 38 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 40 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 65 42 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
14-BIRD/32-PEGRAM
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