011
FXUS64 KEPZ 201737
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1137 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
- DRY, SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID MAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
MOISTURE OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO HANG ALONGSIDE THE
FRANKLIN MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 50S IN EASTERN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. THIS VERY
SHALLOW MOISTURE REACHED THE FRANKLIN/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES RANGES AND
MOSTLY STALLED DUE TO THIS TERRAIN. STAGNANT UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WEAK LEE LOW FORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL RESUME SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON, QUICKLY MIXING THIS MOISTURE OUT AND PARTIALLY
PUSHING IT BACK EAST.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MCV OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL TRACK NORTH INTO FAR WEST TEXAS LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LIFTING AND MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE MOSTLY LOW-QPF AND VIRGA SHOWERS DUE TO DRY LOW
LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS INDICATED BY
"INVERTED-V" SOUNDING PROFILES. HRRR SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF
STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST MOVING NORTH OUT OF
MEXICO, REACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND THE 4-5 PM
TIMEFRAME, WHICH WILL BE WORTH MONITORING.
DRYLINE DOESN'T MAKE MUCH OF A WESTWARD ADVANCE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-MAY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. CONTINUED AFTERNOON WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH.
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION
LATER THIS WEEK, LIKELY PASSING OVER THE EL PASO REGION THIS
WEEKEND. MEAGER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LEAD TO POOR, VERY ISOLATED
RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE ALMOST
COMPLETELY LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN, WHICH EVEN THERE IS LOW
(20-30%). OTHERWISE, NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY FOR MOST.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SYNOPTIC LIFTING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
BETTER STORM COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS AROUND THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
BREEZY SW WIND ACROSS S NM AND W TX THIS AFTERNOON 200-240 AT
10-15 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS SW NM. SKIES
FEW-SCT110, SCT-BKN250. ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
APPROACHING KELP/KLRU AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. VERY SPOTTY -TSRA
POSSIBLE, WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. BLDU MOVING NORTH OUT OF
MEXICO MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY 30-KNOT GUSTS AND VISIBILITY 2-4
MILES AT KELP BETWEEN 22-02Z. WILL AMEND TAF IF NECESSARY. LIGHTER
WIND AOB 08 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, WITH SKIES SCT-BKN250.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO ON
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND MIN RH 8 TO 14%.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TYPICAL MID
MAY TEMPERATURES. VERY SIMILAR WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL IMPROVE FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST THIS WEEKEND. MIN RH WILL
BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE, WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
CLOUDCROFT/RUIDOSO SATURDAY/SUNDAY, LEADING TO A RISK OF NEW
LIGHTNING STARTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. GILA NF WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FUEL
STATUS SHOWS ERCS REACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND WILL REMAIN
AROUND THAT THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 87 63 89 / 30 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 82 55 84 / 30 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 56 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 85 56 87 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 63 42 65 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 56 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 86 63 87 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 87 54 89 / 30 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 90 60 91 / 30 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 57 80 57 81 / 30 0 0 0
FABENS 60 88 60 90 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 85 57 86 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 86 63 88 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 84 56 86 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 75 48 77 / 10 10 0 10
MESCALERO 46 73 46 76 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 43 71 43 73 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 45 77 46 78 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 55 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 85 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 49 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 84 54 84 / 0 10 0 10
CLOVERDALE 54 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT/41-ZOTTER
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