601
FXUS64 KEPZ 290422
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1022 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1004 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSING OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY
THROUGH MIDWEEK, OTHERWISE DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, THEN WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS MODELED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SET UP SOMEWHAT OF A BATTLE BETWEEN MOIST,
SE FLOW FROM THE GULF AND DRY, SW FLOW TO THE WEST. AREAS E OF THE
US-54 CORRIDOR WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN/STORM CHANCES INTO MIDWEEK AS A
MODEST MOISTURE PLUME SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HUDSPETH COUNTY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH WED, BUT ONLY 10-20% AS PWS HOLD STEADY AT OR JUST ABOVE 1".
GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND BLOWING DUST FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FOR THE RGV. WINDS REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR WESTERN NM THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVING
IN WED/THU (ELEVATED-NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX).
THE MOISTURE PLUME IS MODELED TO FIZZLE OUT LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER HIGH MIGRATES WEST TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT OUR STORM CHANCES WILL BE, BUT THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
BE FAVORED. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AND HOTTER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 100F FOR THE
LOWLANDS LATE IN THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NW TOWARDS KTCS AND KDMN. IT'LL
STRUGGLE TO REACH KDMN DUE TO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, BUT KTCS
SHOULD SEE A WIND SHIFT TO S SOON. ISOLATED -SHRA LINGER SE OF
KELP TONIGHT OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY, KEEPING THE TERMINAL DRY.
OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS TONIGHT TO 20KTS FROM SW, ESPECIALLY FOR
KELP, THEN MORE CONSISTENT GUSTS TO 20-25KTS DURING THE DAY FOR
ALL TERMINALS. FEW CU DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND MIN RH 12 TO 18%
CAUSING A FEW HOURS OF RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR GILA NF AND PORTIONS
OF GRANT/SIERRA/CATRON COUNTIES. FUEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK DRYNESS AND ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO HAS ERCS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WILDFIRE GROWTH WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAIN CHANCES. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY/TUESDAY (SOUTHWEST
10 TO 20 MPH) BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. FURTHER DRYING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO SINGLE-
DIGIT RH ACROSS GILA NF BY MIDWEEK. MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL
EXIST FURTHER EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LINCOLN
NATIONAL FOREST THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 97 76 97 / 10 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 90 66 91 / 30 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 68 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 70 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 73 53 73 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 96 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 62 88 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 98 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 96 76 95 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 70 95 69 96 / 20 10 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 73 96 73 97 / 30 10 20 20
LOMA LINDA 69 89 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
FABENS 73 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 71 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 99 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 59 85 57 84 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 57 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 55 81 53 81 / 0 0 10 10
WINSTON 58 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 95 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 63 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 62 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 90 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 95 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 88 64 88 / 0 0 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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