025
FXUS64 KEPZ 131143
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
543 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 453 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
- INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO WINDY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST. LIGHTER WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY.
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE GILA REGION. THESE WILL HELP BRING GUSTIER
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
- BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, EMBEDDED IN A DEEP TROUGH,
WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE'LL REMAIN IN
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY, AND A WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO NEW MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHILE A JET STREAM RAMPS UP OVER 100 KNOTS IN ARIZONA.
A THIN STREAM OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC, AND SOME MODESTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER-30S MAY ALSO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN
SONORA. THE HREF HAS BEEN RAMPING UP CHANCES FOR WEAK CONVECTION
IN THE LOWLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE GILA REGION. EXPECT WE'LL SEE SCANT PRECIP FROM THE
LOWLAND STORMS, BUT "VIRGA BOMBS" MAY HELP ENHANCE SURFACE WIND
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TOMORROW WOULD NORMALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS, BUT
THE INTRODUCTION OF CONVECTION WILL BALANCE THIS OUT.
EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING DUST, AND A FEW AREAS OF DENSER
BLOWING DUST WHERE CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW LENDS A HAND.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAK INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT ROLLS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY. WE'LL BE DRY-SLOTTED ALOFT, AND WSW WINDS
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN, WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND A RENEWED CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST.
QUIETER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL BE BROADER, AND WILL PASS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH. STILL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WE'LL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER WITH THE MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S INCREASING THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON WINDS, AND
BRING ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS, AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS COULD HAVE THREE DIFFERENT IMPACTS FOR AREA
TERMINALS; WINDS, DUST, AND PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST AND INCREASE TO THE 20-30 KT RANGE, THAT COULD MEAN SOME
BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE HIGH-BASED
AND LIGHT, WITH DOWNBURST AND OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MEAND PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPO GROUPS AT DMN AND LRU TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT ELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
A PAIR OF PASSING PACIFIC TROUGHS WILL KEEP THE REGION BREEZY TO
WINDY MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE FIRST TROUGH APPROACHES TODAY AND
LIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE TODAY
AND TUESDAY TO HAVE INCREASED WINDS. THIS TROUGH DOES DIRECT SOME
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY. SO THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING; MOSTLY FOR THE GILA AND OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. ALSO,
LOWLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL BE
FAVORED. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL DAY TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY AS IT
LOOKS QUITE WINDY COUPLED WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL MIN RHS.
THE MOISTURE TODAY WILL KEEP RH UP ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, BUT
THEY WILL BE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED AND NEAR CRITICAL.
20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO: 15-20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. DOWNBURST AND OUTFLOWS
FROM SHOWERS COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS BRIEFLY. TUESDAY'S
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY AGAIN, WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.. WINDS
GO LIGHTER FOR WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY'S WINDS INCREASE A BIT AT 10-15
MPH. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A WINDIER DAY.
MIN RHS: 15-25% MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS (30-45% IN
AREA MOUNTAINS). THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DIP
INTO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT 13-15%. LOWLAND RHS DIP TO 11-20%
(30-40% AREA MOUNTAINS) TUESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT LOWLAND RHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (13-20% AREA MOUNTAINS). LOWLAND RHS 8-12%
AND 15-20% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 81 52 78 / 10 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 77 52 74 / 10 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 52 76 42 74 / 20 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 53 76 45 75 / 10 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 53 33 51 / 30 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 74 44 74 / 20 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 64 35 67 / 50 10 0 0
DEMING 50 76 39 77 / 40 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 73 32 74 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 80 51 77 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 51 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 58 85 51 82 / 10 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 52 73 44 71 / 10 10 0 0
FABENS 59 83 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 79 48 77 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 78 50 76 / 20 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 76 41 76 / 20 10 0 0
HATCH 52 78 40 77 / 30 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 56 80 42 77 / 20 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 76 41 76 / 10 10 0 0
MAYHILL 43 66 36 65 / 10 10 10 0
MESCALERO 41 64 38 62 / 30 10 10 0
TIMBERON 40 62 36 61 / 10 10 10 0
WINSTON 40 65 29 69 / 30 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 71 42 73 / 30 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 74 37 74 / 20 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 63 29 68 / 60 10 0 0
HURLEY 42 68 27 72 / 50 10 0 0
CLIFF 42 70 35 75 / 50 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 38 65 27 70 / 50 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 68 39 71 / 40 10 0 0
ANIMAS 50 75 36 76 / 20 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 76 38 75 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 76 41 77 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 70 38 70 / 20 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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