149
FXUS64 KEPZ 190428
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1028 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
- HISTORIC MARCH WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE NINETIES.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE FIRE
CONCERNS FOR THE TIME BEING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVER THE WEST WITH IT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST, CENTERING ITSELF TOWARD THE NM-AZ
BORDER BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MAY OR
EARLY JUNE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS THREATENED,
ALONG WITH ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD HIGHS. THE GOOD NEWS (AND BAD
NEWS FOR FUTURE FIRE THREAT) IS THE AIR IS EXTREMELY DRY, SO THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, WILL ALLOW REALLY
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING AT NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S
WITH THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EL PASO A BIT WARMER.
THE UL RIDGE TRIES TO FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND AS S/W TROUGHS CROSS IT
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE WHAT HELPS GET
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE RECORD LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY
THOUGH, A STOUT S/W, WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST, WILL FORCE COOLER,
CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
SHOW SOME OF THIS AIR MAKING IT INTO FAR WEST TX AND SOUTHERN NM
WITH THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 12Z EURO.
OPERATIONAL NBM, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 25TH THROUGH 75TH
PERCENTILE, SHOWS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING, A LITTLE LESS
TOWARD THE AZ BORDER, COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THIS IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT AT LEAST IT'S A BREAK FROM THE HISTORICAL HEAT. THIS
COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
REBUILDING OF THE RIDGE, SEND TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL
BE SKC-FEW250 WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA, PEAKING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4 TO
8 PERCENT IN THE LOWLANDS THIS WEEKEND, AND 8 TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD,
MITIGATING IMMEDIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BUT THE STRETCH OF HOT
AND DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FUELS TO DRY RAPIDLY, LEADING TO HIGHER
WILDFIRE RISK ON ANY FUTURE WINDY DAYS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY FROM MONDAY, DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ELEVATED ON MONDAY, POSSIBLY COMING CLOSE TO
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, AND MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY GET A MODEST 4 TO
8 POINT BOOST. THERE'S SOME SIGNS OUR FIRST WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WITH AN UPTICK IN WESTERLY WINDS, MAY COME THROUGH AROUND
NEXT WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS OBVIOUSLY VERY LOW THAT FAR OUT,
ESPECIALLY WITH FINE DETAILS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 55 91 57 95 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 88 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 49 89 51 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 49 90 51 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 70 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 89 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 85 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 49 91 50 95 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 49 89 51 94 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 90 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 45 92 48 95 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 94 53 98 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 85 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 52 93 55 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 89 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 91 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 90 48 94 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 93 48 95 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 91 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 88 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 45 81 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 77 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 43 84 44 86 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 54 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 45 90 46 93 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 86 47 89 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 87 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 92 49 96 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 88 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 87 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 51 90 53 94 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 49 89 51 93 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 89 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 85 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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