763
FXUS64 KEPZ 231122
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
522 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL RANGE
UPPER 90S TO 105, WHICH WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORDS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR TODAY. DRY
ELSEWHERE.
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE SAYING GOES, BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. BUT FOR US THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BIG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH
WILL GIVE THE LOWLANDS OF OUR AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
100F. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS THE HOTTEST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL BE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE REASON
FOR THIS LATE SUMMER HEAT IS A BIG AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL WANDER AROUND NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA THIS WEEK
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REALLY
LIMIT CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HAVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT IS WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. WE MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOME OF THE
LOWLANDS OF TEXAS SOME OF THOSE DAYS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST INTO EASTERN ARIZONA, WHICH WILL ALLOW A
DEGREE OR TWO TO COME OFF OF OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
MAY GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN HOW FOR INTO THE LOWLANDS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
CREEP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE MORE
OF THE SAME AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED IN AREA MOUNTAINS NEXT
WEEKEND AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CREEP TO NEAR RECORD
LEVELS. WE WILL LIKELY START SEPTEMBER OUT ON A HOT NOTE, AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MOVING OFF OR BREAKING DOWN.
SO THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWLANDS WHICH IS A
LITTLE UNUSUAL FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. FOR THE CLIMATE RECORD
OF EL PASO, A LITTLE LESS THAN 2% OF OUR 100 DEGREE DAYS HAVE EVER
OCCURRED IN SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC-FEW120/250. WINDS WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
ABNORMAL WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LIKELY LASTING INTO SEPTEMBER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND RH VALUES IN THE LOWER
TO MID TEENS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALBEIT LOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD VENTING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 102 75 104 / 10 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 99 67 100 / 10 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 68 101 69 103 / 10 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 101 72 103 / 10 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 55 78 56 79 / 20 20 20 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 100 72 102 / 10 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 64 95 65 96 / 20 10 20 0
DEMING 69 102 70 103 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 70 100 71 103 / 10 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 102 75 105 / 10 10 10 0
DELL CITY 70 102 70 104 / 10 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 106 74 108 / 10 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 69 97 69 98 / 10 10 10 0
FABENS 72 102 72 105 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 71 101 71 103 / 10 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 103 75 104 / 10 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 101 71 103 / 10 10 10 0
HATCH 70 104 71 106 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 72 102 73 104 / 10 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 68 100 69 103 / 10 10 10 0
MAYHILL 60 91 60 91 / 20 20 20 10
MESCALERO 58 89 59 90 / 20 10 20 20
TIMBERON 56 87 57 90 / 20 10 20 0
WINSTON 62 92 63 93 / 20 10 20 0
HILLSBORO 69 99 70 101 / 20 10 20 0
SPACEPORT 68 101 69 102 / 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 92 59 93 / 20 20 20 10
HURLEY 65 97 66 99 / 20 10 20 0
CLIFF 68 101 68 102 / 20 20 20 0
MULE CREEK 65 97 66 99 / 20 20 20 0
FAYWOOD 68 97 68 98 / 10 10 10 0
ANIMAS 70 101 71 103 / 10 10 10 0
HACHITA 69 99 70 102 / 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 99 69 101 / 10 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 65 94 66 96 / 10 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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