929
FXUS64 KEPZ 021137
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
537 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WEST FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY,
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
EXITING UPPER LOW NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA HAS TAKEN MOST OF OUR
MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PERSISTS, MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN CWA, AND WITH THE HELP OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
NW NEW MEXICO, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. MOST, OR ALL, SHOWERS LIKELY REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FT, SO SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTS OUT TO
OUR EAST SATURDAY EVENING, ENDING ALL PRECIP.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY FOR BRIEF CLEARING OF THE
SKIES. HIGHER CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUB-
TROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS THE
NOSE OF THIS JET MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO, BUT FOR NOW TOO LOW TO
REGISTER IN THE GRIDS. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE GILA, THEN SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALL AREAS TUESDAY AS MOISTENING DOWN FROM THE TOP
GRADUALLY TAKES EFFECT. THE PACIFIC LOW LIFTS OUT AS AN OPEN
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD COLD POOL ALOFT WITH IT
SO A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS FALL TO
AROUND 8000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO BOTH SETS OF MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A DUSTING AT THESE ELEVATIONS.
GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF A
SECONDARY LOW OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS. GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW
BUT MUCH FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, MAYBE COMING INTO PLAY BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AT KELP WITH CLOUDS TOPPING MOUNTAINS.
SCT-BKN020, BKN060 THIS MORNING WITH -RA ACROSS S NM. CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR AFTER 15Z, GENERALLY SCT-BKN060 WITH SURFACE
WINDS 080-120 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL
NM AGAIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY, WHICH MAY AFFECT KTCS BUT
LIKELY NOT THE OTHER TAF SITES. DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
SCT100 BKN250.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
RECENT RAINS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE FIRE DANGER
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. MIN RH 40-60% THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS GNF/LNF BETWEEN 12-6PM THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH POOR VENTILATION.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY WEST FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY, WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25
MPH, WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS BECOMING DRIER
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MIN RH 10 TO 20%, LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 79 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 76 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 47 76 56 81 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 45 74 54 80 / 20 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 53 41 57 / 20 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 75 56 80 / 20 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 44 71 50 72 / 20 0 0 0
DEMING 48 79 55 83 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 80 63 83 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 45 78 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 84 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 73 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 52 83 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 78 58 83 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 77 62 82 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 76 53 80 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 46 80 56 83 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 82 59 85 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 45 75 55 80 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 35 66 46 71 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 34 63 45 68 / 20 10 10 0
TIMBERON 34 62 43 67 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 68 43 71 / 30 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 74 55 77 / 20 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 75 51 80 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 71 40 72 / 20 10 0 0
HURLEY 43 73 50 76 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 44 78 43 79 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 44 75 37 75 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 73 52 75 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 81 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 76 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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