386
FXUS64 KEPZ 102347
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
547 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH BLOWING
DUST POSSIBLE. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON OUT WEST AND
THE AREA HAS COME UNDER SSW FLOW ALOFT AND S TO SE AT THE SURFACE.
THIS HAS BROUGHT IN SOME MODEST LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN AREAS INTO THE 40S. EXPECT STORMS
TO START DEVELOPING ON THE SACS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ONTO
THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NOT
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS,
BUT WITH LOW LEVELS STILL KEEPING A 40-50 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION, WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN
FACT, GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS(CAMS AND GFS) THAT THERE WILL BE
A STRONG OUTFLOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE RGV AROUND
00Z. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A TRIGGER FOR SOME PULSE STORMS
THROUGH SUNSET. CONTINUED TO LOWER POPS FROM THE NBM A LITTLE BIT
WITH MORE OF ISOLATED COVERAGE WEST OF THE RGV AND HIGH CHANCE
EAST WITH LIKELY IN THE SACS. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OUT
EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR SAT, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MOVING IN OUT WEST BY MID MORNING
AND SPREADING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
LOW EXCEPT NEAR FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE BETTER SHEAR AND MOISTURE
WILL BE. SPC MARGINAL RISK SEEMS REASONABLE AGAINST OUR CWA
BORDER.
STARTING SUN, MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST AND A COUPLE WAVES CROSSING THE AREA
BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. MONDAY IS STILL LOOKING
LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY, BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS PREVIOUS RUNS
SHOWED. LOOKING LIKE SOLID 20-30MPH WHICH DEPENDING ON PRECIP
COVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH GENERALLY MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
AS ADVERTISED SINCE YESTERDAY A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY REACH KELP AND WILL REACH
KLRU BY 00Z AND KDMN AND KTCS BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN BRIEFLY BELOW A MILE ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND AND DUST
SHOULD SLOW ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THEY ARRIVE. THEN FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WE WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH
CEILINGS OF BKN250. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EAST OF KELP, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, WE WILL HAVE LOW END WIND
GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. A STRAY DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN'T
BE RULED OUT IN THE GILA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM STARTING SAT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK THE
WINDIEST AND WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH'S IN THE TEENS CREATING SOME
AREAS WITH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH RFTI VALUES IN THE 3-4
RANGE. THE SACS ARE LOOKING AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP
RH'S CLOSER TO 20-25%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 83 58 84 / 50 30 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 56 73 51 79 / 50 60 30 0
LAS CRUCES 55 81 50 79 / 40 20 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 78 50 80 / 60 50 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 53 37 56 / 70 60 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 80 50 79 / 30 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 73 45 71 / 20 10 0 0
DEMING 52 81 46 82 / 30 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 80 46 78 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 81 59 82 / 60 30 10 0
DELL CITY 56 78 51 82 / 60 70 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 59 82 55 87 / 60 50 30 0
LOMA LINDA 55 73 53 76 / 50 50 10 0
FABENS 60 83 56 85 / 50 40 10 0
SANTA TERESA 56 81 54 81 / 60 20 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 81 57 81 / 50 30 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 80 49 80 / 50 20 10 0
HATCH 55 84 51 82 / 40 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 56 84 54 84 / 30 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 78 51 79 / 60 50 10 0
MAYHILL 48 66 45 69 / 80 70 20 0
MESCALERO 46 64 41 67 / 70 60 20 10
TIMBERON 46 63 37 65 / 80 70 20 0
WINSTON 41 72 37 70 / 20 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 51 79 48 76 / 30 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 79 46 79 / 40 20 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 73 30 70 / 20 10 0 0
HURLEY 48 76 42 74 / 20 10 0 0
CLIFF 42 79 35 77 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 76 33 73 / 10 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 76 46 74 / 20 10 0 0
ANIMAS 50 81 46 79 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 49 81 48 79 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 52 81 49 79 / 20 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 75 47 73 / 10 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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