276
FXUS64 KEPZ 111033
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
433 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 432 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
- WINDS TO TURN NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY TURN EAST
WITH BRIEF GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMBING TOWARD RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND.
- SATURDAY WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE WEST. MAY CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
OUR UPPER LOW HAS WEAKENED INTO AN OPEN WAVE, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND. CLEARING SKIES ARE IN ITS WAKE, WITH
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT, PREVENTING FOG
FORMATION IN THE AREAS THAT DID MANAGE TO GET WETTING RAINFALL.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL RETURN TO
EAST SLOPE AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT, INCLUDING NE EL PASO, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE, DIMINISHING BEFORE DAWN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN REBOUNDING WEDNESDAY DESPITE LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW PERSISTING. A WEAK BACKDOOR PUSH WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO
THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING THURSDAY. BASICALLY HIGHS WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT THE
SAME (MID-70S LOWLANDS), THEN JUMP UP INTO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH IS ALWAYS WELCOME
IN MARCH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING
AN UPTICK IN WESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NOTHING
EXTREME (GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS).
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OUR WARMING TREND ON MONDAY, BUT THERE'S A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIX HERE AS TO HOW CLOSE TO NORMAL OUR TEMPS
WILL GO. LONGER RANGE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A BUILDING RIDGE, WHICH
WOULD ACCELERATE OUR WARMING TREND LATER NEXT WEEK IF IT COMES TO
PASS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. PATCHY BKN015
5SM BR OVER GRANT AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 17Z. SURFACE
WINDS WEST 10-13G25 KNOTS BECOMING MOSTLY NORTH 8-12 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS BECOMING
EAST 8-12G20 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH AN
EXTENDED LOWERING OF HUMIDITY WILL START TO DRY FUELS OUT. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE SWEEPING THROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE
AFTERNOON WINDS AND BRING NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO THE
FIRE ZONES SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, ALTHOUGH MIN HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
LOW INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES, NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OTHER THAN SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 12-22% TODAY AND THURSDAY, BECOMING 7-12% FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS 20-30% TODAY AND THURSDAY, BECOMING
10-17% FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD TODAY, POOR-
FAIR THURSDAY, GOOD-VERY GOOD FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, MOSTLY EXCELLENT
SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 76 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 44 73 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 41 75 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 38 73 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 32 51 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 75 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 72 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 42 78 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 76 39 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 74 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 36 76 38 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 41 80 43 87 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 70 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 48 78 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 74 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 76 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 30 75 34 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 38 78 38 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 44 76 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 38 73 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 29 66 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 32 62 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 28 59 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 73 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 74 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 36 76 38 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 71 23 76 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 72 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 32 78 33 82 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 25 73 27 78 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 41 72 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 42 77 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 76 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 38 77 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 73 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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