199
FXUS64 KEPZ 111142
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
542 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
- TRIPLE DIGIT LOWLAND HEAT AGAIN TODAY. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF EL PASO COUNTY AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER CHANCES
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- TRENDING DRY AND HOT AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WIDE SPREAD
100+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A TRICKLE OF
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SLIP INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL AN INFLUENCE, SO IT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TO GET MORE THAN JUST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DROP TO
OUR SOUTHWEST AND THAT WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO GET
INTO THE AREA. IT WON'T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY SO RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THOSE DAYS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES, WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS JUST SHY OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK
INTO NEW MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE POSITION
WILL DRY US OUT AND HEAT US BACK UP WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
ABOVE 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD TODAY. SKIES SCT-BKN250 ALONG WITH
FEW130 MID-AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. SURFACE WINDS 270-300 AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS SW NM THIS AFTERNOON. DOWN-VALLEY FLOW COULD
KEEP WINDS GUSTY AT KTCS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
GILA NF WITH MIN RH 5 TO 10% AND WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
VENT RATES BECOMING VERY GOOD AFTER 11AM, WITH SMOKE TRANSPORT TO
THE SE.
RETURNING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON,
LIMITED MOSTLY TO LINCOLN NF FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY/MONDAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF NEW LIGHTNING STARTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. FORECAST THEN
TRENDS DRY AND HOT AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 100 75 100 / 0 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 94 64 94 / 0 50 30 10
LAS CRUCES 68 98 67 98 / 0 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 98 69 97 / 0 30 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 52 76 / 0 50 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 98 70 96 / 0 0 10 20
SILVER CITY 62 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 69 102 68 102 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 98 72 99 / 0 20 10 0
DELL CITY 68 97 65 98 / 0 30 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 74 101 70 101 / 0 50 20 10
LOMA LINDA 69 91 66 92 / 0 30 20 0
FABENS 72 101 69 102 / 0 30 10 10
SANTA TERESA 70 97 68 98 / 0 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 98 75 98 / 0 20 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 68 98 67 97 / 0 20 10 10
HATCH 68 101 68 101 / 0 10 0 10
COLUMBUS 75 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 96 66 96 / 0 30 20 0
MAYHILL 59 84 57 87 / 0 60 20 60
MESCALERO 57 86 56 86 / 0 50 20 30
TIMBERON 56 82 53 82 / 0 40 20 20
WINSTON 60 90 61 88 / 0 0 0 40
HILLSBORO 69 96 67 94 / 0 10 0 30
SPACEPORT 65 97 64 96 / 0 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 58 94 59 92 / 0 0 10 20
HURLEY 63 95 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 98 64 98 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 60 94 62 93 / 0 0 10 10
FAYWOOD 66 94 65 94 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 66 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 67 97 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 96 67 97 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 64 90 64 91 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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