595
FXUS64 KEPZ 182332
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
532 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY AND SATURDAY, FOCUSING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- DRIER WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT WEEK
FEATURES ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
- TYPICAL MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER MOST OF THE CWA
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST. UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WITH STRONG
DRYING BEHIND IT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY, REACHING THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LIKELY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF IT AND PERHAPS
JUST A FEW TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. PWS IN THE EAST TODAY WILL
STILL REMAIN AROUND 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES, SO SOME FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE AGAIN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED DRYING WITH A SHORT BREAK FROM
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PWS DROP TO AROUND .75 INCHES SATURDAY
SO MAYBE JUST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES. PWS
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY DROP EVEN FURTHER AND AIRMASS LACKS MUCH OF ANY
INSTABILITY, SO OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE SACS,
THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD BE DRY.
TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...NEXT PACIFIC LOW PLOWS INTO SOCAL MONDAY
AND LIFTS UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE SUB-
TROPICAL JET BACK INTO PLAY; BY TUESDAY THE JET IS OVER FAR WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND BY WED/THUR EXTENDING SW-NE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS IS THE JET BRINGING UP
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUB-TROPICL MOISTURE. HENCE WE ARE LOOKING AT
ANOTHER STRETCH FOR A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. PWS
INCREASE BACK TO THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FOR THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLOODING. POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS
COULD PLAY INTO THE SCENARIO ALSO. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BEGIN THINNING THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS HELP GIVE US WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND
THAT WILL HELP SHIFT OUR THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALSO EAST. KDMN AND
KTCS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
EVENING (EXCEPT MAYBE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES). WHILE KLRU WILL BE
CLOSE, BUT I ALSO THINK THEY WILL STAY ON THE DRY SIDE OF THINGS,
BUT KELP DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS THIS EVENING. BEST TIMING ON THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL HAVE
GENERALLY UNLIMITED CEILINGS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND THAT
TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME DRYING SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL DROP HUMIDITIES SOME BUT STILL WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES. CHANCES OF RAIN ARE SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES. ANOTHER SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
ZONES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN AND
A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR
BELOW NORMAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 20-25% SATURDAY, DECREASING TO 17-22% SUN/MON, THEN
INCREASING TO 35-50% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOUNTAINS...25-35%
SATURDAY, THEN DECREASING TO 20-30% SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN
INCREASING TO 65-80% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENT RATES FAIR TO
GOOD THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING POOR TO FAIR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 93 66 92 / 30 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 91 62 89 / 30 30 40 0
LAS CRUCES 63 89 61 90 / 20 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 90 64 90 / 50 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 68 48 68 / 50 20 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 86 61 86 / 20 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 59 84 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 62 91 60 91 / 0 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 64 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 93 66 92 / 20 10 10 0
DELL CITY 67 94 64 93 / 50 20 30 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 99 68 97 / 40 40 40 0
LOMA LINDA 65 86 63 86 / 40 0 10 0
FABENS 69 95 66 94 / 30 10 20 0
SANTA TERESA 65 91 63 90 / 20 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 92 68 91 / 30 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 90 61 90 / 30 10 10 0
HATCH 63 92 62 92 / 10 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 65 93 64 93 / 0 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 63 90 61 89 / 50 0 10 0
MAYHILL 55 83 54 82 / 70 20 10 10
MESCALERO 53 80 53 79 / 50 20 10 0
TIMBERON 54 78 52 78 / 70 10 20 0
WINSTON 54 79 52 80 / 30 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 63 87 63 86 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 89 59 89 / 20 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 82 51 81 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 59 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 59 89 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 57 86 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 61 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 91 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 63 90 63 89 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 91 63 90 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 87 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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