060
FXUS64 KEPZ 092342
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
542 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- DRIER AND HOTTER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MANY LOWLAND AREAS
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
- FIRST HEAT ADVISORY OF THE YEAR ISSUED FOR THE LOWER VALLEY FOR
WEDNESDAY.
- MOISTURE WILL SEEP IN FROM THE EAST, GIVING THE GILA WILDERNESS
AND SACRAMENTO MTNS A CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY. RETURNING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH'S DOMINATION CONTINUES. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
RIDES OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH, ALLOWING 100-DEGREE
TEMPERATURES TO CEMENT THEMSELVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE LOWER
VALLEY HAS RECEIVED OUR REGION'S FIRST HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
YEAR, WITH TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES THERE REACHING THE 105-DEGREE
THRESHOLD. SKIES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY.
FOR THE GILA WILDERNESS AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL ALLOW SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE TO THOSE REGIONS, KEEPING THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S FOR TODAY AND ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
VIRGA AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FROM CUMULUS BUILDUP IS POSSIBLE
TODAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH SOME MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL LOWLANDS, THOUGH ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CEASE BY
TOMORROW. THE HRRR IS PREDICTING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE TODAY IN THOSE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THURSDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TOMORROW'S, AND HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE LOWLANDS AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO TEXAS,
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO INTRUDE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DESERTS, ALLOWING A LITTLE REPRIEVE
FROM TRIPLE- DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF ARE STILL SPLIT AS TO HOW MUCH PW THERE WILL BE FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY; GFS IS LEANING TOWARDS 1.5", WHILE THE ECMWF IS
LEANING MORE TOWARDS 1.3". KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA,
MAINLY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS REGION. THE SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LOW END WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF IN THE NEXT
2 TO 4 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BECOMING UNLIMITED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. WE WILL BE DRIER ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
END WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND A BETTER
CHANCE FOR AREA MTNS. DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN FOR WESTERN AREAS
WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LOWER. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
FWZ113 AND THE BLACK RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
BREEZY WED/THU AS WINDS SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW-MEDIUM RAIN/STORM CHANCES
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, MAINLY IN EASTERN AREAS.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% THIS AFTERNOON, THEN 7-17% THROUGH THU.
VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 105 78 103 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 99 69 98 / 10 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 68 101 68 100 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 100 73 101 / 20 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 79 55 80 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 100 68 99 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 93 61 93 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 67 104 69 103 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 99 67 97 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 102 75 101 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 102 68 102 / 10 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 105 75 104 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 95 71 95 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 73 105 73 104 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 101 71 99 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 102 79 101 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 101 69 100 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 68 104 69 103 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 103 75 101 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 100 69 99 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 59 91 61 92 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 58 89 59 90 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 55 86 57 86 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 56 92 59 91 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 98 68 97 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 65 100 65 99 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 93 56 94 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 96 63 95 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 60 99 60 99 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 57 94 58 95 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 96 66 95 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 99 66 96 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 66 99 68 97 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 99 67 96 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 93 64 90 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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