385
FXUS64 KEPZ 040532
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1032 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 944 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
- A COOL FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
- LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
FOR TONIGHT, A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, ACCOMPANIED BY A SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY ARRIVES IN NORTHERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT, INVOLVING A WIND
SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS INTO THE AM
HOURS. AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WED, WINDS
SHIFT MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY, INCREASING ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR. PATCHY BLDU AND LOWERED VIS MAY BE SEEN IN THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AROUND LORDSBURG WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. WEST MTN SLOPES
WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS RELAX WED EVENING
AS THE GRADIENT LOOSENS. THE SFC HIGH WON'T BE VERY STRONG OR
COLD, SO TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR WED AND THU.
NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FROM THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE WE ARE
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
THAT REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK, ALLOWING THE PACIFIC
CUT- OFF LOW TO DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOCAL. SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE SCOOPED UP AHEAD OF IT THU NIGHT-FRI, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP FOR US. THIS SYSTEM BECOMES ELONGATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE
THE SUBTROPICAL JET SETS UP. WE'LL SEE IF THE MOISTURE TAP IS
OVERHEAD OR TO OUR EAST AND WHAT SORT OF UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WE
HAVE TO WORK WITH DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. FOR NOW, LOW-END POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN-MON, MAYBE LINGERING INTO TUE IF THE
TROUGH IS SLOWER TO PROGRESS. NO BACK-DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE MODELED
TO REACH US DURING THIS TIME, SO ANY SNOW CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER SW FLOW, COOLING A TOUCH LATE IN THE PERIOD
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PACIFIC FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS DON'T
LOOK TO BE IMPACTFUL FROM THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 944 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE N/NE
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE AM. GUSTINESS
LASTS THROUGH THE DAY WED, SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY BEFORE SUBSIDING
IN THE EVENING. MAINLY SKC EXPECTED WITH FEW250 PASSING BY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
FIRE ZONES SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOL FRONT MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN BREEZY EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS TURNING BACK TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN MORE MOISTURE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 20-30% THROUGH SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS 15-25%
GILA/BLACK RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY; 25-35% SACRAMENTO MTNS THROUGH
SATURDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD WEDNESDAY, THEN POOR-FAIR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 63 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 56 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 60 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 33 60 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 39 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 60 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 60 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 37 63 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 33 62 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 61 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 32 58 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 53 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 36 63 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 35 60 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 33 61 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 34 64 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 32 59 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 26 48 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 26 51 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 28 48 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 25 53 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 35 59 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 32 61 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 29 59 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 32 60 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 31 68 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 30 65 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 37 58 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 35 63 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 35 61 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 61 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 57 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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