433
FXUS64 KEPZ 181138
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
538 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY. RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
- LIGHTER WINDS, BUT STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS, TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHTS, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE WELL ADVERTISED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERLAY NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND INCREASING PVA WILL INDUCE LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO OF ~990MB. THIS COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND REGION ON MONDAY. SUSTAINED WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MTN/BLACK RANGE AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN FOOTHILLS. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM FOR THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS. ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS DESERT LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY
IN AND AROUND DUST PRONE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
ON TUESDAY, A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL BUMP
UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MOUNTAIN CHAIN, INFRINGING ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL NOT
PUSH ANY FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY
WESTERLIES KICK INTO GEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL HOVER AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AND MERGE WITH THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION OVER THE TRANS PECOS WILL PUSH THE
BOUNDARY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE QUESTION REMAINS,
HOW STRONG AND HOW FAR WEST WILL THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PUSH WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING? THAT SAID, MENTIONABLE POPS ARE IN THE
GRIDS FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
TRY TO MAKE ANOTHER PUSH WESTWARD ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER FAR EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES. THOSE AREAS JUST MENTIONED WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
..REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
DRY WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO WIN OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IS FORECAST. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTY
AT KELP AND WILL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS. THIS WILL PUT KELP
CLOSE TO AWW THIS AFTERNOON BUT LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SPEEDS JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA. DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE W TO SW (220-270),
WHICH MAY BRING BLDU INTO TAF SITES, BUT GIVEN LACK OF VIS
REDUCTIONS ON SUNDAY, I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE AROUND 6Z. SKIES
WILL BE SKC-FEW250 FOR THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
ANOTHER WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN
UL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. TWENTY-FOOT SPEEDS
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EAST SLOPE AREAS. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE 40
TO 50 MPH WITH UP TO 55 MPH IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. MIN RH
VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 10%. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL BUT HUDSPETH COUNTY. TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY
BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER, TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 20
MPH. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
BUT WITH NO CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR FAR EASTERN AREAS AS A DRY LINE MOVES BACK AND FORTH ACROSS
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY. VENTING WILL
BE EXCELLENT WITH SMOKE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 54 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 56 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 67 44 66 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 80 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 91 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 91 55 88 / 0 0 0 20
FORT HANCOCK 61 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 61 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 53 90 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 92 60 91 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 56 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 50 80 48 77 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 48 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 46 75 46 74 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 42 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 47 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 47 85 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 46 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 51 87 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 88 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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