499
FXUS64 KEPZ 201200
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
600 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY OVER HIGH
TERRAIN AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
LATE OCTOBER.
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE REGION.
SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITHIN THE RE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
JET LEAD TO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.
00Z RAOB AT KEPZ CONFIRMED FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOW 1.0-1.1" WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF
EBWS AND A 45 KNOT SPEED MAX AT 400MB, ENOUGH FOR SOME VERY STRONG
STORMS ACROSS SW NM TODAY.
PREVAILING WEATHER PATTERN DEPICTS A DIVING PACIFIC LOW MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE
IN LATE-WEEK RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EL PASO AREA. TO THE SOUTH, HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER S TX AND NE MEXICO. SSW FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTH,
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE-OCTOBER.
FOR TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A BIT, REACHING
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE DESERT LOWLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, AGAIN FAVORING SW NM AND THE HIGH
TERRAIN. COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER, GENERALLY 10-20% GIVEN WARMER
AIR ALOFT EATING AWAY AT INSTABILITY. STILL, FAVORABLE 0-6KM WIND
SHEAR PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS GRANT/HIDALGO COUNTIES. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING SW
NM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE LATE THIS WEEK, WITH A 75-KNOT JET
STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST US.
DEEP MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF MEXICO WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO 1.2-1.4", WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS E AZ AND W
NM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE PUT THE
HIGHEST FLOOD RISK OVER W NM, INCLUDING GRANT COUNTY AND THE GILA
WILDERNESS (MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNTS 1.00-1.50", WORSE-CASE
2.00-3.00" LOCALIZED).
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM,
LEAVING REMNANT ENERGY BEHIND AND CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS COMES AT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT
NOW, GIVEN THE WEAKER FORCING. THIS, HOWEVER, IS SOMETHING THE
AREA SHOULD GET USED TO GIVEN A WINTER OUTLOOK THAT SUGGESTS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND MORE FREQUENT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS PASSING BY KTCS TO START THE PERIOD,
NEAR-ZERO RAIN CHANCES FOR TERMINALS TODAY. SHOWERS NEAR KTCS
SHOULD LIFT NE AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW STORMS DEVELOP OVER HIGH
TERRAIN AND WEST OF KDMN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AOB 6KTS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK. MAINLY DRY TODAY
WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND NEAR AZ-NM BORDER.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, FAVORING A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE TO NEAR-
RECORD FOR LATE OCTOBER. THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER BOTH DAYS. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES STAY WARM INTO LATE WEEK, THEN COOLING TO
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 35-65% THROUGH WED, 60-80% IN THE GILA ON THU.
VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN AREA MTNS TODAY, POOR IN THE
LOWLANDS; THEN FAIR TO GOOD AREA-WIDE THROUGH THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 86 64 85 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 57 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 57 82 60 81 / 0 0 10 30
ALAMOGORDO 58 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 44 62 45 61 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 79 59 77 / 0 10 20 50
SILVER CITY 54 74 56 70 / 10 20 50 80
DEMING 57 83 59 82 / 10 0 30 50
LORDSBURG 59 80 61 78 / 10 10 50 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 85 67 85 / 10 0 0 20
DELL CITY 57 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 91 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 79 58 79 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 62 89 64 89 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 61 84 63 83 / 10 0 0 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 30
JORNADA RANGE 57 82 60 81 / 0 0 10 30
HATCH 58 84 61 83 / 0 0 20 40
COLUMBUS 61 85 64 84 / 10 0 10 40
OROGRANDE 57 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 48 74 50 72 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 48 73 49 72 / 0 10 0 10
TIMBERON 47 70 49 69 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 49 71 51 68 / 0 20 40 70
HILLSBORO 57 78 59 76 / 10 10 40 60
SPACEPORT 56 80 58 79 / 0 0 20 40
LAKE ROBERTS 49 74 52 69 / 10 30 50 80
HURLEY 53 77 55 74 / 10 10 40 80
CLIFF 57 82 59 77 / 10 40 70 90
MULE CREEK 55 77 56 70 / 30 50 80 100
FAYWOOD 56 77 58 74 / 10 10 40 70
ANIMAS 58 82 60 80 / 10 10 30 60
HACHITA 58 82 60 80 / 10 0 20 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 83 59 82 / 10 0 20 30
CLOVERDALE 58 79 59 76 / 10 10 20 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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