955
FXUS64 KEPZ 260420
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1020 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK DUE TO MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST.
- WE WILL FINISH OUT MAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE TO OUR WEATHER IN THE FORM OF WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THAT WILL WRAP UP OUR RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SLOW
ENOUGH AND DESPITE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN, WE WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GIVE AREA MOUNTAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF US WILL STAY DRY, BUT A FEW
LUCKY FOLKS COULD GET A LITTLE MORE RAIN. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF WE WILL SEE A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
US DRY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. THE ONE GOTCHA WE HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THE FACT THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LURK
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
MOISTURE SLIP INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AND GIVE PARTS OF
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE
START JUNE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. STILL NO SIGN OF ANY TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THUNDERSTORMS, WIND
AND DUST ON MONDAY CONTINUES TO GIVE; AS WE STILL SEE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. OUR WINDS WILL DROP
OFF AND WE WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT. AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE LESS AND LESS
CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. OUR LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND WE COULD SEE MORE LOW END WIND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
GENERALLY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO WIND SPEEDS STAYING
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON MOSTLY FOCUSING OVER THE
AREA MOUNTAINS. MIN RHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NM WITH VALUES OF 6-10% BUT MUCH HIGHER MIN RHS
WILL BE FOUND THE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU GO INTO NEW MEXICO.
THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL SEE RHS OF AROUND 40-45%. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BREEZES AT 5-10 MPH. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, A
MOISTURE BOUNDARY (DRYLINE) WILL PUSH MOISTURE IN FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY
GETS SHOVED EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE
MAKING A WESTWARD PUSH OVERNIGHT AND PUSH EASTWARD EACH
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS BUT ELSEWHERE WILL
STAY DRY. MIN RHS STAY CRITICAL EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THROUGHOUT THE LOWLANDS (6-12%) AND NEAR CRITICAL IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS (18-20%).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 86 61 90 / 40 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 81 53 85 / 80 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 52 83 53 86 / 40 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 80 56 86 / 70 30 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 58 41 65 / 90 50 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 80 54 85 / 50 30 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 77 49 79 / 20 10 0 0
DEMING 53 88 54 90 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 85 55 86 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 85 61 88 / 30 10 0 0
DELL CITY 55 81 54 87 / 90 60 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 89 59 92 / 80 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 78 55 82 / 70 10 0 0
FABENS 58 88 57 91 / 60 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 84 55 87 / 30 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 83 62 87 / 50 20 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 82 53 86 / 60 20 0 0
HATCH 53 86 53 89 / 40 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 88 61 90 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 80 54 85 / 60 20 0 0
MAYHILL 46 68 44 77 / 90 80 10 0
MESCALERO 45 69 45 75 / 80 50 10 0
TIMBERON 44 66 43 72 / 80 50 10 0
WINSTON 43 72 43 78 / 50 50 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 80 53 83 / 40 30 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 81 50 85 / 60 20 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 77 44 80 / 20 10 0 0
HURLEY 48 80 48 82 / 20 10 0 0
CLIFF 51 84 48 86 / 20 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 49 79 48 81 / 10 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 79 50 81 / 30 10 0 0
ANIMAS 54 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 85 55 87 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 85 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 79 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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