741
FXUS64 KEPZ 101112
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
512 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN COOLING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS AFTERWARD.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ISOLATED, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- WE WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THREE TROPICAL SYSTEMS BEARING DOWN ON THE U.S. THIS EVENING AND
TWO NOT TOO FAR AWAY, BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE WILL
SEE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SYSTEMS. CURRENTLY ISAIAS IS
MOVING INLAND THROUGH ALABAMA AND WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. CLOSER TO HOME TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
MOVES TOWARD SAN DIEGO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHEARS MOST OF THE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SO THAT SYSTEM WILL
HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR
US ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE IS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY THE THIRD TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
(SIMON) WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT FAR INLAND AS THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO, TEAR SIMON UP PRETTY WELL. WHAT
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LOOKS TO STAY JUST
TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. SO RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SIT
BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS, BUT NEITHER SYSTEM
LOOKS TO HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE WILL AGAIN SEE A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT THOSE ARE
DRIVEN MORE BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN BY ANY TROPICAL
INFLUENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHILE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WE WILL SEE
HIGHS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE SWEPT BY AS IT HEADS
EAST AND THAT WILL SWEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE REGION. WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE. JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, BOTH THE EXTENDED GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KNOCK OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT070 SCT-BKN120 FROM
SILVER CITY-LORDSBURG WEST. SKC TO THE EAST. THE CLOUDS IN THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST WITH ISOLATED BKN060CB
SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AFTER 19Z, AND SPREADING EAST TO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AROUND 01Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 10-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS LUNA, DONA
ANA, AND EL PASO COUNTIES. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT ONLY HAVE CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE WITH KDMN AND KTCS TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LOW END. WE WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WE WILL SEE A DRYING
OUT TREND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS AFTER TUESDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 25-35% THROUGH TUESDAY, DECREASING TO 18-25%
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. MOUNTAINS 35-50% THROUGH TUESDAY, DECREASING
TO 25-35% WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD TODAY,
BECOMING VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN GOOD
AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 90 68 86 / 10 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 87 63 85 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 62 87 62 82 / 20 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 87 63 83 / 10 20 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 65 47 61 / 10 10 30 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 84 58 81 / 20 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 56 77 53 71 / 30 30 30 20
DEMING 60 87 60 82 / 20 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 61 83 59 79 / 20 20 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 89 68 85 / 10 20 20 0
DELL CITY 62 90 65 88 / 0 0 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 95 69 92 / 0 10 20 0
LOMA LINDA 62 83 63 79 / 10 20 20 0
FABENS 67 92 68 88 / 10 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 65 88 65 84 / 10 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 89 66 85 / 10 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 63 87 62 82 / 10 20 20 0
HATCH 62 89 62 84 / 20 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 63 89 63 84 / 20 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 63 87 63 83 / 10 20 20 0
MAYHILL 50 77 53 75 / 10 10 20 0
MESCALERO 50 76 52 72 / 10 10 20 0
TIMBERON 48 73 51 70 / 10 20 40 0
WINSTON 50 77 49 73 / 30 30 20 10
HILLSBORO 59 84 57 79 / 20 20 20 0
SPACEPORT 60 85 60 81 / 20 20 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 74 44 69 / 30 40 30 20
HURLEY 56 80 54 75 / 20 30 20 10
CLIFF 49 82 50 77 / 30 50 50 30
MULE CREEK 45 77 46 72 / 40 60 60 30
FAYWOOD 59 80 56 75 / 20 30 20 10
ANIMAS 61 84 59 80 / 20 20 0 10
HACHITA 60 85 59 81 / 20 20 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 85 58 82 / 20 20 0 10
CLOVERDALE 58 77 56 73 / 20 20 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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