437
FXUS64 KEPZ 130403
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1003 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1003 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- INCREASING STORM CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A LOW THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING
- JUST ISOLATED, UNORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
- INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
UPPER HIGH HAS DRIFTED UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING.
LARGE AREAS OF DRY AIR HAVE MOVED IN, THOUGH ONE POCKET OF MOISTURE
SITS JUST EAST OF THE CWA, WHILE ANOTHER PATCH OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS FORCED ITS WAY NORTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS
DEFORMATION ZONE TO OUR SOUTH WEAKENS. HENCE SOME LATER EVENING
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE TO FORM OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OF EL PASO
COUNTY OVER TO HIDALGO COUNTY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THIS CONVECTION
DONE BY AROUND 06Z-08Z.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD
LOOKS UNSETTLED. BY MID-WEEK THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AND AN OLD CUT-OFF LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD BACK TO
TEXAS. THIS WILL NOT IMPORT MUCH NEW MOISTURE, BUT WILL ALLOW
RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA. THUS, MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, EXPECT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE EACH DAY. STORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY RANDOM
AND MOSTLY UNORGANIZED. PWS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.0-1.2 INCHES
(AROUND 100-120% OF NORMAL) MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SO A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING. PWS FALL TO
.8-1.0 INCHES WED/THUR WITH EVEN MORE ISOLATED STORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RETROGRADED UPPER LOW MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS
AND EVENTUALLY THE CHIHUAHUAN DESERT BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MOISTURE (PW) REVERTS BACK TO 1.0-1.3 INCHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
EXPECT AN UPTICK AGAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. A LOT OF POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND UPON IF/HOW MANY SHORT WAVES ROTATE
WEST ACROSS THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT100 BKN250 WITH ISOLATED
BKN070CB -TSRA TIL 07Z-09Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS 12-17G25 KNOTS UNTIL
AROUND 08Z, THEN VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASING AGAIN AFTER
18Z TO EAST/SOUTHEAST 13-18G28 KNOTS, WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTION
WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE WEST TODAY. OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL
BE MODESTLY BREEZY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE COOLING
TREND LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. STORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON RECENT BURN
SCARS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK, BEFORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND FLOODING CONCERNS RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 92 72 91 / 20 10 10 30
SIERRA BLANCA 64 84 61 83 / 10 50 30 40
LAS CRUCES 68 92 66 91 / 20 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 67 91 65 91 / 20 20 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 50 70 48 69 / 20 20 10 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 92 69 92 / 10 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 61 87 59 86 / 20 10 30 40
DEMING 68 92 66 92 / 20 0 20 10
LORDSBURG 69 93 66 91 / 30 0 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 91 72 90 / 20 10 10 20
DELL CITY 67 89 65 89 / 20 20 10 30
FORT HANCOCK 72 92 69 91 / 10 50 30 50
LOMA LINDA 66 84 63 84 / 20 10 10 30
FABENS 72 93 69 92 / 10 20 20 30
SANTA TERESA 71 91 68 89 / 20 10 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 92 71 92 / 20 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 69 92 67 91 / 20 10 10 10
HATCH 69 95 67 95 / 20 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 73 92 70 91 / 20 10 30 10
OROGRANDE 68 90 65 90 / 20 10 10 20
MAYHILL 54 78 53 78 / 10 30 10 40
MESCALERO 54 81 52 80 / 20 20 10 30
TIMBERON 52 77 50 77 / 10 20 10 40
WINSTON 60 85 58 85 / 10 10 20 10
HILLSBORO 66 89 65 90 / 20 20 20 10
SPACEPORT 66 92 65 92 / 10 10 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 57 88 56 87 / 20 20 20 40
HURLEY 64 89 62 88 / 20 10 30 30
CLIFF 65 93 64 92 / 20 30 30 50
MULE CREEK 63 90 62 88 / 30 50 30 60
FAYWOOD 65 88 63 88 / 20 10 30 20
ANIMAS 68 92 66 91 / 30 10 50 10
HACHITA 67 91 65 90 / 20 10 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 90 66 89 / 40 30 50 30
CLOVERDALE 63 85 63 84 / 60 30 50 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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