644
FXUS64 KEPZ 020429
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
929 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 826 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY EAST WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MIDWEEK.
- THE DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 826 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
A FEW WEEKS AGO WE HAD A BLOCKING PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THAT PATTERN KEPT
OUR WEATHER PRETTY STAGNANT FOR FIVE DAYS, AND IT LOOKS LIKE A
SIMILAR PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO, BUT THAT RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RIDES THE RIDGE'S COAT TAILS. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL GIVE US
SOME OFF AND ON BREEZY WARM WEST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL HELP WARM
OUR TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE
BAJA OF MEXICO AND TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP. THIS REX BLOCK PATTERN
WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE OFF. THE REX BLOCK WILL KEEP US DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM TRACK WILL BE PUSHED WAY TO THE
NORTH. JUMPING BACK TO TUESDAY, OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE A DECENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRY AND IT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WILL RUN 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WEST OF THE
RIVER. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY TO ALMOST WINDY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. ON THURSDAY,
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS.
FOR FRIDAY, THE REX BLOCK FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. INITIALLY WE WILL SEE VERY
LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AS IT WILL
CREEP OH SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. AFTER A TWO WEEK STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THE EXTENDED
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT A RETURN TO SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 826 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY. OUR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE
UNLIMITED, BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250 MONDAY
EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE OUR WINDS SWING AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY;
24010G18KT. THE LOW END GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION TODAY WITH MIN RH
20-30%. MONDAY WILL BE A BETTER DAY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. VENT RATES
FAIR TO GOOD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING
MIDWEEK WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 36 65 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 66 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 32 63 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 44 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 67 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 63 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 35 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 35 67 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 42 68 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 30 64 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 38 72 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 39 60 41 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 37 70 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 68 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 67 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 32 67 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 32 71 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 71 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 35 63 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 32 60 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 29 55 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 32 53 32 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 28 64 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 68 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 31 66 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 62 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 33 66 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 32 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 34 65 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 37 66 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 35 69 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 34 68 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 70 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 64 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page