234
FXUS64 KEPZ 202310
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
510 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MOSTLY
LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE REGION.
SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SPINNING AWAY OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER HIGH IS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER AZ AND OUR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. A MARGINAL RISK IS OUT TOMORROW
HIGHLIGHTING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST FOR STRONG STORMS
THAT COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS OUT OVER THE LOWER CO BASIN THURSDAY
BUT THIS WILL SPELL A VERY ACTIVE COUPLE DAYS FOR THE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING, AND STRONG STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ABNORMALLY MOIST CONDITIONS ON THE WAY
THURSDAY WHERE PWS WILL REACH UP TO 1.1" TO 1.2" WHICH IS RECORD
BREAKING, OR AT LEAST NEAR RECORD BREAKING, WHICH WILL ADD TO THE
FLOODING THREAT.
BEHIND THE MAIN AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, ANOTHER LOW CUTS OFF AND
GIVES US A LITTLE MORE ENERGY FOR SATURDAYS STORMS. CONTINUED RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, AS WELL AS FLOODING. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, THIS TROUGH FINALLY GETS SUCKED INTO THE MAIN FLOW
ALLOWING SOME DRIER AND CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKIES FEW-SCT080, SCT-BKN250
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TS ACROSS SW NM, NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
LOCAL TERMINALS. DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS
COVERAGE. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 040-080 AOB 5 KNOTS TONIGHT,
THEN INCREASING OUT OF THE SE 110-140 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD AS MIN RHS STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND 20 FOOT WINDS STAY 5-10 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE 30-50% EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, INCREASING TO 50-70% MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MIN RHS WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 40-80% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE GILA REGION AND FAR WESTERN NM LOCATIONS
TOMORROW, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
FEATURE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, AND FLASH FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE IS AREAWIDE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. STORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN NM OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 58 82 61 81 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 59 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 63 46 61 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 78 59 77 / 0 0 10 40
SILVER CITY 55 75 57 71 / 0 10 30 70
DEMING 58 84 61 82 / 0 0 10 50
LORDSBURG 60 81 62 78 / 0 10 40 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 86 68 85 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 58 85 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 63 91 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 80 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 63 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 83 61 81 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 59 84 61 82 / 0 0 10 20
COLUMBUS 62 86 64 84 / 0 0 10 30
OROGRANDE 59 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 74 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 49 73 50 72 / 0 10 0 0
TIMBERON 48 70 50 68 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 50 71 51 68 / 0 10 20 60
HILLSBORO 58 78 60 76 / 0 10 20 50
SPACEPORT 57 80 59 79 / 0 0 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 50 74 53 70 / 0 20 30 70
HURLEY 54 77 57 74 / 0 10 20 70
CLIFF 58 82 59 77 / 10 20 50 90
MULE CREEK 56 77 55 71 / 30 40 70 90
FAYWOOD 57 77 59 74 / 0 10 20 60
ANIMAS 59 82 61 80 / 0 10 20 60
HACHITA 59 82 60 80 / 0 0 20 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 84 59 82 / 0 10 10 30
CLOVERDALE 58 80 58 77 / 0 10 10 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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