421  
FXUS64 KEPZ 291117  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
417 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 158 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING THIS MORNING WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN  
THE LOWER SIXTIES. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RECOVER FRIDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND AS WEST FLOW RESUMES. DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED  
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MILES PER HOUR.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 158 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL  
PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY, TAKING THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WITH  
IT. ANY LINGERING RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END  
AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.  
 
WE'LL BE LEFT WITH ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL DAY AS SKIES CLEAR IN  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWLAND HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE LOWER 60S,  
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY. SURFACE  
WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY, WHERE  
THEY'LL STAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND WILL KEEP US DRY AND ALLOW US TO QUICKLY RECOVER FROM  
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. LOWLAND HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S AS  
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, REMAINING WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
WINDS DO PICK UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE POLAR JET  
STREAK POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS BECOMING BREEZY  
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, WINDS LOOK TO  
REMAIN BELOW ANY HEADLINES WITH LOWLAND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH  
BOTH DAYS. DID INCLUDE PATCHY BLOWING DUST ALONG MUCH OF THE I-10  
CORRIDOR SUNDAY.  
 
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN STORM  
TRACKS REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HINTING THAT  
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE ABLE TO DIG SOUTH ENOUGH TO AFFECT  
OUR WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY WINDS AND LOW-END  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIKELY WITH ANY DISTURBANCES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
LOW CEILINGS ACROSS S NM AND W TX THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION  
EXITS THE AREA. SKIES SCT-BKN010-020 THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING,  
LEADING TO CONDITIONS BOUNCING BETWEEN IFR/MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AROUND MIDDAY,  
TIMING THE RETURN TO VMC AROUND 19Z THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS  
LIGHT THIS MORNING, SHIFTING TO 240-270 AT 08-12 KNOTS THIS  
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 158 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
LOW FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY GIVEN OVERNIGHT WETTING  
PRECIPITATION. NEW SNOW HAS FALLEN OVER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000  
FEET AND SHOULD KEEP RH QUITE HIGH TODAY. SYSTEM EXITS THIS  
MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS SHIFTING  
BACK TO THE WEST AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES.  
 
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW REST OF WEEK AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND.  
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON RH 15-25%  
AND 20-FT WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FIRE HEADLINES  
AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 64 45 72 46 / 10 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 59 39 67 42 / 30 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 61 38 70 41 / 10 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 55 35 67 39 / 20 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 33 27 44 32 / 30 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 37 68 39 / 10 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 52 34 59 37 / 20 0 0 0  
DEMING 62 35 69 37 / 10 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 61 35 67 36 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 43 71 45 / 10 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 61 34 71 36 / 20 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 65 38 73 39 / 10 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 56 40 64 42 / 10 0 0 0  
FABENS 64 40 72 41 / 10 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 61 38 69 39 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 42 69 46 / 10 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 59 35 69 39 / 10 0 0 0  
HATCH 63 34 72 37 / 10 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 63 40 70 40 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 57 37 67 39 / 10 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 49 32 60 37 / 20 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 44 29 56 34 / 30 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 44 28 54 32 / 40 0 0 0  
WINSTON 54 30 61 33 / 10 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 58 32 66 35 / 10 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 58 33 67 35 / 10 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 52 28 59 32 / 20 0 0 0  
HURLEY 56 32 64 34 / 10 0 0 0  
CLIFF 61 34 67 36 / 10 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 56 35 62 37 / 10 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 56 35 63 37 / 10 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 62 36 69 36 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 62 37 69 37 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 37 70 37 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 58 40 64 40 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
NM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT  
 
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