717
FXUS64 KEPZ 150606
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1206 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, INCLUDING IN THE LOWLANDS,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, AS AN UPPER LOW TRAVELS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD, TYPICAL FOR MID-END MONSOON DAYS.
- ANOTHER DRY AND WARMER SPELL IS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT
IT MAY BE BRIEF, AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS WEST OF THE AREA, AND
OPENS US UP TO WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
TODAY WENT MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED, WITH STORMS AGAIN FOCUSED
OVER THE GILA REGION AND DOWN INTO THE BOOTHEEL. PERHAPS A LITTLE
MORE ACTIVITY INTO SIERRA AND LUNA COUNTIES THAN I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED.
OUR UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS CRAWLING TOWARDS COAHUILA, AND AGAIN
INFLUENCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN "NEAR-WEST" TEXAS. SOME OF
ON-GOING CONVECTION HAS DRIFTED INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY, ROUGHLY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. EXPECT WE'LL SEE OFF AND ON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN PARTS
OF HUDSPETH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT WITH NO REAL IMPACT.
OVERALL EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN CONVECTION COVERAGE TOMORROW,
MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THAT UPPER LOW. ITS TRACK IS SLOWING DOWN, HOWEVER, AND NOW SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AREA-WIDE,
RATHER THAN SHIFTING WEST. THE WESTERN PREFERENCE NOW SLIPS TO
MONDAY WITH THE SLOWER TRACK.
THEN THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST, LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE TUE AND
WEDNESDAY, AND BOOSTING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS THE 100 MARK. BUT
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, WITH
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WEAK TRAILING END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO SKIRT THE AREA, AND
COMBINED WITH TYPICAL MID/LATE-MONSOON RECYCLED MOISTURE, SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO BOOST PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOULD
SEE STEADIER SE WINDS DEVELOP AT ELP AFTER 09Z ONCE A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO TRIGGER ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY EITHER. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY, WITH A BOOST IN PROBABILITIES AT LOWLAND TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY LRU AND ELP. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN INITIATE
CONVECTION ON THE SMALLER DESERT MOUNTAIN CHAINS BY 20Z, BUT THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY. FOCUSED TSRA CHANCES FOR ELP AND LRU
A LITTLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, ONCE THE USUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FROM HIGHER-MOUNTAIN STORMS START KICKING IN DOWN IN
THE LOWLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS
FOCUSED OUT WEST. FOR SATURDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO PUSH
IN FROM THE EAST AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
SACS WITH STORMS MOVING ONTO THE LOWLANDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS AREAWIDE AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES NW UP THE RGV.
RH'S THROUGH SUN WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S+. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 FOR THE LOWLANDS BY WED WITH RH'S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 98 73 98 / 10 30 40 30
SIERRA BLANCA 66 94 66 92 / 40 50 40 20
LAS CRUCES 67 96 68 97 / 10 30 30 30
ALAMOGORDO 69 96 71 95 / 10 30 20 60
CLOUDCROFT 52 72 52 72 / 10 70 20 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 94 71 96 / 20 20 20 50
SILVER CITY 60 88 63 90 / 10 30 20 40
DEMING 67 97 69 98 / 10 20 20 40
LORDSBURG 67 94 69 97 / 10 10 20 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 98 75 97 / 10 40 30 30
DELL CITY 70 98 70 97 / 20 30 30 20
FORT HANCOCK 73 99 73 99 / 30 40 40 30
LOMA LINDA 67 91 68 90 / 10 50 40 40
FABENS 72 98 72 98 / 10 40 40 30
SANTA TERESA 71 96 71 96 / 10 30 30 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 96 73 96 / 10 30 20 40
JORNADA RANGE 68 95 70 96 / 20 40 20 40
HATCH 68 99 70 100 / 20 30 20 40
COLUMBUS 72 97 73 98 / 10 20 20 30
OROGRANDE 68 95 68 94 / 10 30 20 40
MAYHILL 57 84 57 83 / 10 70 20 70
MESCALERO 56 83 56 83 / 10 70 20 70
TIMBERON 54 82 55 82 / 10 40 20 70
WINSTON 57 86 60 88 / 30 50 20 40
HILLSBORO 64 93 67 95 / 20 30 20 50
SPACEPORT 66 95 68 96 / 30 30 10 40
LAKE ROBERTS 55 87 57 88 / 10 30 20 50
HURLEY 61 91 64 93 / 10 20 20 40
CLIFF 63 95 65 97 / 10 20 20 30
MULE CREEK 61 91 63 93 / 10 20 10 30
FAYWOOD 64 91 66 93 / 10 20 20 50
ANIMAS 67 94 69 97 / 10 20 20 30
HACHITA 67 94 69 96 / 10 20 20 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 93 68 95 / 10 20 20 20
CLOVERDALE 63 87 65 90 / 10 30 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page