414
FXUS64 KEPZ 091749
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1149 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1148 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN OUT WEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN AREAWIDE FOR
SUNDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SCATTERED.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT TO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MODELS STILL DOING SOME BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOT OF ENERGY WILL BE DIVING DOWN THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL DIG A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL AND PUSH THIS
MOISTURE NE INTO AZ/UT. THE 00Z EC SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF
AN OUTLIER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE
GFS/NAM AND ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A GFS SOLUTION FOR
THE SHORT TERM. WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME BITS OF ENERGY AND
MOISTURE THAT WILL BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE
AREA BUT WITH A STRONGER STORM, SOME AREAS COULD SEE 0.5-1.0" IN
THE GILA REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWLAND AREAS GENERALLY UNDER
0.25". TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS WE GO INTO MON/TUE, THE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DEVELOP
A CLOSED LOW AND MOVE ONSHORE NEAR LAX AND THEN TURN NORTHEAST
TOWARDS LAS. AS IT DOES, THERE WILL BE A MOISTURE TAP COMING FROM
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME
TOGETHER AND SHOWING THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE WITH JUST HUDSPETH CO AND NORTH INTO THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. GIVEN THE PW'S WILL BE
INCREASING TO 1.25-1.5" OVER THE EAST, COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THE NBM 95TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OUT EAST ARE
OVER 1" BUT 75TH ONLY AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. THIS SHOWS THAT
THERE ISN'T A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLES THAT A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS LIKELY BUT WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS, IT IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER RAIN BAND. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH,
COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
P6SM SKC-SCT080 THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 12Z WHEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE AZ
BORDER BUT ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY. PREVAILING WINDS
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AOB 12KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WE
WILL SEE A COUPLE MOISTURE SURGES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND ESPECIALLY THE GILA REGION. AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE BEST CHANCES SHIFT EAST OF THE RIVER. THERE WILL BE SOME
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKE WITH THE REMNANTS OF POLO.
TEMPERATURES WILL START ABOVE NORMAL AND DROP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RH'S WILL REMAIN 25%+. GOOD VENT RATES
SAT AND IMPROVING TO VERY GOOD SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 87 66 87 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 82 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 58 83 62 86 / 0 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 56 83 65 87 / 0 0 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 61 48 64 / 0 0 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 82 60 83 / 0 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 54 76 56 76 / 0 10 40 60
DEMING 56 84 61 84 / 0 0 20 10
LORDSBURG 60 82 61 82 / 0 20 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 86 68 88 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 56 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 79 62 83 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 61 89 66 90 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 60 85 65 87 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 85 66 89 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 55 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 59 86 63 88 / 0 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 60 87 64 85 / 0 0 20 0
OROGRANDE 57 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 73 53 76 / 0 0 10 10
MESCALERO 48 72 53 75 / 0 0 10 0
TIMBERON 44 69 51 73 / 0 0 10 10
WINSTON 46 73 52 74 / 0 10 20 20
HILLSBORO 56 81 60 81 / 0 0 20 20
SPACEPORT 56 83 60 84 / 0 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 40 75 51 73 / 0 10 40 50
HURLEY 53 79 57 76 / 0 10 30 40
CLIFF 47 84 58 80 / 0 10 50 50
MULE CREEK 44 80 57 76 / 10 10 50 60
FAYWOOD 57 78 59 77 / 0 0 30 30
ANIMAS 58 85 62 83 / 0 20 30 20
HACHITA 58 84 60 84 / 0 20 30 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 85 60 84 / 0 20 30 10
CLOVERDALE 58 80 58 76 / 0 20 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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