749
FXUS64 KEPZ 041207
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
607 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE.
- GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, FLOODING, AND EVEN SOME HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. CONTINUED RISKS FOR FLOODING FROM STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OR THE MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION FOR TOMORROW, FROM WHAT WE SAW ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY, WHEN
WE HAD A BIT MORE ORGANIZATION, THURSDAY'S STORMS LOOK TO BE MORE
DUE TO HEAT DESTABILIZATION, AND NOT AS MUCH AS OFF OF ORGANIZED
OUTFLOWS. WE LOOK TO HAVE NEARLY THE SAME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, AND
ABOUT THE SAME INSTABILITY, BUT WE COULD SEE A BIT OF STABILITY
ALOFT AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN OVER WESTERN AREAS. THIS
COULD BE A BIT OF A REDUCTION IN STORM ACTIVITY AS A WHOLE, BUT
STILL EXPECTING IT ACROSS ALL PARTS OF THE CWFA.
FOR FRIDAY, WE SEE THE MOISTURE START TO CONCENTRATE OVER EASTERN
AREAS AS THE MAIN LOBE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH TO OUR S
AND E, WITH MOISTURE FOLLOWING IT, AND DRY AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND IT
ON N AND NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, EVEN AS FAR AS SATURDAY, WE DON'T
SEE A GOOD FLUSH OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA, AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS, AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTER AREAS.
THUS, WE WILL KEEP IN RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY WE ARE ABLE TO FINALLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR REGION WITH DRY AIR BACK OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY TO THE NE AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW. WE WILL TREND SHARPLY
DRIER, AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THERE
MAY BE A STRING OF 100 DEGREE DAYS BEGINNING MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE, RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE HEAT, WILL SHIFT EAST, AND THUS WE SHOULDN'T SEE EXTREME, OR
EXCESSIVE HEAT, BUT STILL TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-103 RANGE FOR EL
PASO. ALSO, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT EASTERLY
SURGES OF MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR EASTERN AREA, FOR SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON MAINLY MOUNTAIN STORM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE VALID PERIOD WITH
SCT TO BKN CLOUD MID AND HIGH LEVELS THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT UNDER 20 PERCENT CHANCE AT KTCS,
KDMN, AND KLRU. KELP WILL HAVE A A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TERM MVFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG
SHIFTING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
GENERAL PREVAILING WINDS AT 5-12KTS AND MOSTLY FROM THE NE AND E.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND ON FRIDAY WITH A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING, HAIL AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME LESS AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE STARTS TO DECLINE. BY SATURDAY, STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY IT WILL BE
DRY AND MUCH WARMER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER. BY SUNDAY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW THE ENTIRE LOWLAND AREA TO DIP INTO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF
10-15%, WITH NEAR CRITICAL RHS IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS WITH VALUES
OF 19-22% THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 88 67 94 / 30 20 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 80 57 86 / 40 50 30 10
LAS CRUCES 60 88 60 92 / 10 10 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 63 87 63 89 / 10 40 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 46 67 46 67 / 10 60 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 91 64 92 / 10 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 55 87 55 87 / 10 30 10 0
DEMING 60 95 60 98 / 10 20 10 0
LORDSBURG 61 94 61 94 / 10 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 87 66 92 / 30 20 20 0
DELL CITY 60 86 59 88 / 30 40 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 64 88 64 94 / 40 50 30 10
LOMA LINDA 60 80 60 84 / 40 30 20 10
FABENS 63 88 63 94 / 40 30 30 0
SANTA TERESA 61 86 61 92 / 30 10 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 88 69 91 / 10 20 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 88 61 91 / 0 20 20 0
HATCH 62 93 62 95 / 10 20 10 0
COLUMBUS 65 93 65 96 / 20 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 61 85 60 88 / 10 30 20 10
MAYHILL 51 79 52 78 / 20 50 20 60
MESCALERO 50 78 51 78 / 10 60 20 30
TIMBERON 48 73 48 73 / 20 60 30 40
WINSTON 53 85 54 85 / 10 20 10 10
HILLSBORO 61 90 61 91 / 10 30 10 0
SPACEPORT 59 89 59 91 / 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 52 89 52 88 / 10 40 10 0
HURLEY 56 89 56 90 / 10 30 10 0
CLIFF 56 95 56 96 / 10 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 55 92 55 90 / 10 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 88 58 89 / 10 30 10 0
ANIMAS 61 94 61 94 / 10 10 20 0
HACHITA 59 92 60 94 / 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 92 61 95 / 10 30 10 0
CLOVERDALE 58 88 58 88 / 10 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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