809
FXUS64 KEPZ 090522
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1122 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1112 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY. STORM CHANCES PERSIST EACH
AFTERNOON FAVORING AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NM WITH LESSER
ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
- STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN US THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS WILL DISSOLVE AND REDEVELOP ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SW
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH WILL SWING BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CONUS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE (PWS OF
1.2"-1.4") WHICH WILL HELP FUEL MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING MORE
AREAWIDE COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER HIGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE DESERT SW THURSDAY. A MORE AVERAGE STORM DAY IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE AREA
MOUNTAINS AND MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE LOWLANDS.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS EACH AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY, WE'LL STILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING RIDGE BUT WE WILL BE
ENTRAINING DRIER, CONTINENTAL AIR LEADING TO A DOWNTICK IN STORM
ACTIVITY MOSTLY FOCUSED OUT WEST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE.
SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR MORE TYPICAL MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, EVEN
HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TONIGHT
FIZZLING OUT TO QUIET CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE. STILL A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS AT KDMN. EXPECTING A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
DAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE TO SEE
A THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER TOMORROW. COULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
LINGERING STORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
QUIET FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MIN RHS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20%.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, LIGHT WINDS WILL BLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TOMORROW, AND START TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE GENERALLY FAIR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 97 74 96 / 10 10 40 20
SIERRA BLANCA 68 91 67 91 / 10 30 10 20
LAS CRUCES 70 95 69 93 / 20 20 30 30
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 68 93 / 10 40 40 30
CLOUDCROFT 51 70 51 69 / 10 70 40 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 94 71 93 / 20 30 40 40
SILVER CITY 64 88 63 87 / 30 50 30 60
DEMING 70 96 68 96 / 20 10 30 30
LORDSBURG 69 93 69 93 / 20 20 30 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 96 75 95 / 10 10 40 20
DELL CITY 71 96 70 95 / 0 20 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 75 99 73 98 / 10 20 10 20
LOMA LINDA 69 89 68 88 / 10 30 30 30
FABENS 73 98 72 97 / 10 10 20 20
SANTA TERESA 73 95 71 93 / 20 10 30 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 96 74 95 / 20 20 40 30
JORNADA RANGE 71 95 69 94 / 20 20 30 30
HATCH 72 98 70 97 / 20 20 40 30
COLUMBUS 73 97 72 96 / 30 10 40 20
OROGRANDE 70 93 68 92 / 10 20 40 20
MAYHILL 56 83 56 81 / 10 50 30 70
MESCALERO 55 82 55 81 / 10 60 40 60
TIMBERON 55 80 54 79 / 10 60 30 50
WINSTON 60 86 59 85 / 20 50 30 70
HILLSBORO 70 93 69 91 / 30 40 30 50
SPACEPORT 70 94 68 94 / 20 30 40 30
LAKE ROBERTS 58 86 57 87 / 30 60 20 70
HURLEY 65 90 64 90 / 30 40 30 60
CLIFF 66 94 66 93 / 30 50 30 60
MULE CREEK 64 91 64 91 / 20 60 50 50
FAYWOOD 67 89 66 89 / 20 40 30 60
ANIMAS 69 95 69 94 / 40 20 40 30
HACHITA 68 93 68 93 / 40 20 40 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 93 67 93 / 40 10 40 50
CLOVERDALE 64 88 64 86 / 40 30 50 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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