433
FXUS64 KEPZ 271802
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1202 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND BLACK
RANGE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY, THOUGH A
POSSIBLE SPOTTY STORM OR TWO IN THE LOWLANDS.
- TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND; CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ABOVE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SURROUNDING THE HIGH WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE (40-60%)
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE LOWLANDS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
MENTIONABLE CHANCE (15-25%) OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS PWAT VALUES FOR THE LOWLANDS ARE BETWEEN 1-1.2" BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. STORM-GENERATED OUTFLOW GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS CONVINCED ME TO PUT A BLANKET
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AREA-WIDE AS PWAT VALUES ON
FRIDAY CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 1.2", IN ADDITION TO THE WPC
HAVING OUR REGION UNDER A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. I EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY BE
RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH A SPOTTY LOWLAND SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY FORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST AND AREAS AROUND OR JUST WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL
DOWN TO JUST UNDER THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
THE RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE LOWLANDS DRY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ON BOTH DAYS. AS WE TRANSITION FROM AUGUST TO SEPTEMBER,
THE ACTIVE TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL DICTATE WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE WILL SEE. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE A NEAT MOISTURE PLUME JUST ALONG THE
ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER FOR MONDAY, BUT THE EXTENDED MODEL RUNS
ARE IN A DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE RIDGE WILL BE STATIONED.
THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY, AND HAS MORE MOISTURE OVER THE
BORDERLAND, WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE ELONGATED OVER US BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS MOISTURE LEVELS LOW. AS OF NOW, I AM MORE
CONFIDENT IN THE ECMWF'S PREDICTION, BUT ONCE THE MODELS COME
INTO CONSENSUS, THAT COULD CHANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR AND SCT-BKN 090-150,
BUT -TSRA BETWEEN 20Z-02Z COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TEMPORARILY TO
IFR/MVFR. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT AND
PATCHY BLDU MAY OCCUR IN THESE OUTFLOWS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AFTER THE STORMS DISSIPATE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
ISOLATED (20-30% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
GILA/LINCOLN FORESTS THIS AFTERNOON. SUDDEN, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE
LIKELY MID-AFTERNOON DUE TO STORM OUTFLOWS. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE, SO CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED NEAR FIRE LINES. RECENT
DRYNESS ALSO BRINGS A RISK OF NEW LIGHTNING STARTS, GIVEN THE PAST 7-
10 DAYS OF MINIMAL STORM COVERAGE. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST THROUGH TONIGHT.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.
MIN RH 20-30% OVER GILA NATIONAL FOREST, HIGHER RH OVER LINCOLN
NATIONAL FOREST DUE TO OVERNIGHT STORMS. LIGHT 20-FT WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING VENT RATES FAIR. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WIND SHIFT WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AGAIN.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MEANS A DRYER TREND FOR
LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
FOR GILA NATIONAL FOREST, WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 100 76 100 / 20 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 96 67 95 / 20 20 20 0
LAS CRUCES 70 99 71 99 / 30 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 97 71 98 / 20 20 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 52 73 52 74 / 30 60 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 98 72 97 / 20 20 20 0
SILVER CITY 65 93 65 92 / 20 20 40 10
DEMING 71 100 71 100 / 20 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 72 99 71 99 / 20 20 30 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 100 78 100 / 20 20 20 0
DELL CITY 70 99 71 99 / 20 20 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 103 75 103 / 20 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 68 92 69 93 / 20 20 20 0
FABENS 73 100 73 100 / 20 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 73 99 74 99 / 20 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 99 75 99 / 30 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 98 72 98 / 30 20 20 0
HATCH 72 102 72 102 / 20 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 75 101 75 101 / 20 20 20 0
OROGRANDE 69 97 70 97 / 20 20 20 0
MAYHILL 57 86 58 87 / 30 60 20 40
MESCALERO 56 85 57 86 / 30 50 20 30
TIMBERON 54 83 55 84 / 20 40 20 10
WINSTON 60 90 60 89 / 20 30 30 40
HILLSBORO 69 97 69 97 / 20 20 30 10
SPACEPORT 69 98 70 98 / 20 20 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 91 59 90 / 20 50 50 20
HURLEY 66 95 66 95 / 20 20 30 0
CLIFF 69 100 68 98 / 20 20 50 10
MULE CREEK 67 96 65 94 / 20 20 50 10
FAYWOOD 68 94 68 94 / 20 20 30 0
ANIMAS 71 100 70 99 / 30 20 30 10
HACHITA 71 98 70 98 / 30 20 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 99 69 98 / 20 20 20 0
CLOVERDALE 67 94 66 92 / 20 20 30 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
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