535
FXUS64 KEPZ 251204
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
604 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 452 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
- BREEZY AND DRY ON SATURDAY. THEN WINDY, DRY, AND POSSIBLY DUSTY
ON SUNDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON BOTH
DAYS.
- THE WEATHER WILL BE MORE BENIGN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS WE
SIT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSAGES. TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM, CONDITIONS CONTINUE VERY DRY, WINDS LIGHTER,
BUT STILL BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
TWIN UPPER LOWS ARE LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT,
WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OREGON.
THE LATTER WILL ACT AS A KICKER WHICH WILL BRING A MERGED UPPER
LOW INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
SUNDAY.
WHILE NOT A TERRIBLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYSTEM, WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS, WITH THE GFS
INDICATING A 990MB SURFACE LOW IN FAR SE COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 45 TO 50 KNOTS IN THE 800
TO 700 MB LAYER, AND 50 TO 55 KNOTS AROUND 600 MB, CLOSE TO OUR
EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WSW WINDS GUSTING 45 TO
55 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND ALONG EAST-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. GUSTS MAY APPROACH HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT WE OFTEN
STRUGGLE WITH VERIFICATION IN THESE SCENARIOS, SO WENT THE
ADVISORY ROUTE FOR THE TIME BEING.
WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE AROUND 250 DEGREES MUCH OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...NORMALLY A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR BLOWING DUST AT
EL PASO, AND SOUTH OF DEMING. WIND GUSTS AT LORDSBURG WILL LAG
BEHIND AREAS FURTHER EAST, BUT DUST IS LIKELY THERE. WHETHER WE
WILL SEE HIGHER IMPACT DUST OUTSIDE OF LORDSBURG PLAYA (RATHER
THAN JUST MURKY HAZE) IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND
EVENTS SO FAR THIS SEASON. WE ARE BASICALLY UNCALIBRATED.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
EARLY NEXT. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO GRAZE NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ILL-TIMED FOR STRONG WINDS.
LONGER RANGE MAY BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK, BUT
THINGS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH JUST A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG OF A
PROJECTED UPPER LOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
WE WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY AND WINDY WITH BLOWING DUST ON
SUNDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL START BY LATE MORNING AND BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE US EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ON SUNDAY AND WITH THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OF THE WINDS WE
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BACK TO
TODAY, WE WILL SEE HIGH OFF AND ON CEILINGS OF SCT-BKN250. THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF BY LATE TONIGHT. TODAY'S GUSTY WINDS
MAY DROP OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE QUICKLY RETURN BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
WE WILL HAVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH MIN RH'S OF AROUND 10 TO 15% IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEAR
20% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH AND ON SUNDAY WE WILL HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR TODAY
AND SUNDAY. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE LESS WINDS,
BUT SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH'S WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE LOWLANDS.
HIGHER MIN RH'S ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. VENT RATES
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 88 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 85 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 52 83 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 84 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 60 37 56 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 80 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 47 70 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 84 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 78 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 86 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 88 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 94 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 81 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 61 91 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 85 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 85 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 83 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 53 85 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 86 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 54 83 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 73 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 46 71 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 44 70 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 42 70 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 77 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 49 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 70 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 75 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 76 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 70 32 73 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 48 75 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 56 80 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 80 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF
THE BOOTHEEL-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHERN
GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO
MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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