659
FXUS64 KEPZ 181706
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1106 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN FAVORING WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- NEAR NORMAL LATE JULY TEMPERATURES, LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
NINETIES TO ONE HUNDRED DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
MONSOONAL UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES,
EXTENDING WEST ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO TODAY. STEADY FLOW
ALOFT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OUR ONGOING WEATHER PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TWO UPPER LOWS CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ONE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND
THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MINIMAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS PRESENT, LACKING WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND CLOUD LAYER MEAN
FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS WEAK
SUBSIDENT FLOW WITHIN THE 500 MB LAYER, FURTHER ERODING CONVECTIVE
ACCELERATION TODAY.
MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND PW
VALUES 1.2-1.4" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE EXISTS OVER SW NEW MEXICO, WHERE I EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO BE A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING.
..TODAY AND TONIGHT
EARLY START TO STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE BLACK RANGE, GILA FOREST, AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BURN SCAR FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NM
LOWLANDS, FAVORING SW NEW MEXICO WITH SCATTERED HIT-AN-MISS
COVERAGE. MOST (IF NOT ALL) STORMS WILL BE NON-SEVERE BUT COULD
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL STICK
AROUND LATER TONIGHT, DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
..THIS WEEKEND
BETTER STORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AS
THE PLUME OF DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS WESTWARD. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE MOSTLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, IN PARTICULAR GRANT/HIDALGO
COUNTIES. TEXAS COUNTIES MAY END UP COMPLETELY DRY.
..MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UPTICK IN STORM CHANCE ONCE AGAIN AS THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE
FOCUSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. GFS SHOWS PWS IN THE 1.4-1.6" RANGE,
FURTHER INCREASING FLOODING RISK.
..LATE NEXT WEEK
UPPER HIGH MAKES A FULL RETROGRADE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY, SUPPRESSING STORM SEVERITY AND REDUCING COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AFTER
WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED OVER MOUNTAINS AND MORE
ISOLATED ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SCT-BKN090CB THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHER STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS W NM. DIRECT STORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KTCS/KDMN THIS
EVENING, LOWER CHANCES FOR KELP/KLRU. OMITTED MENTION OF TS AT
KELP THIS CYCLE DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT VCTS IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 23-03Z THIS EVENING. WILL AMEND TAF IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. SURFACE WINDS 150-180 AT 05-10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER
SURFACE GUSTS NEAR TS OUTFLOWS. LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES SCT-BKN110
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
PRIMARY FIRE THREAT REMAINS FOCUSED AROUND THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS BOTH GNF AND LNF THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING
ACROSS THE NM LOWLANDS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AROUND BURN SCARS. PREVAILING WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH RESULTING IN FAIR VENTILATION AND MIN RH
30-40% TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS GNF AND WESTERN NM. NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES,
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT PREVAILING FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 99 77 100 / 40 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 66 92 68 93 / 20 10 10 20
LAS CRUCES 68 95 70 96 / 60 10 30 10
ALAMOGORDO 70 96 71 96 / 30 20 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 52 73 53 74 / 30 40 10 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 94 71 95 / 60 40 40 40
SILVER CITY 63 87 62 88 / 70 70 70 70
DEMING 68 97 70 98 / 70 30 50 30
LORDSBURG 67 94 67 93 / 70 70 70 60
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 96 75 97 / 50 10 20 10
DELL CITY 71 97 71 98 / 20 10 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 74 99 75 100 / 20 10 10 30
LOMA LINDA 68 90 69 91 / 30 10 10 20
FABENS 73 97 75 98 / 30 10 10 10
SANTA TERESA 71 95 73 96 / 50 10 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 96 75 97 / 50 10 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 69 95 70 96 / 60 20 30 30
HATCH 69 97 70 98 / 60 30 40 30
COLUMBUS 71 96 72 97 / 70 20 50 20
OROGRANDE 69 94 71 95 / 30 10 10 20
MAYHILL 57 83 58 84 / 30 40 10 40
MESCALERO 56 84 58 85 / 30 40 10 50
TIMBERON 56 81 57 82 / 30 30 10 40
WINSTON 58 85 58 85 / 70 60 50 70
HILLSBORO 64 93 65 93 / 70 50 50 50
SPACEPORT 67 94 67 96 / 60 30 30 30
LAKE ROBERTS 57 88 57 88 / 70 80 70 80
HURLEY 63 90 63 90 / 70 60 60 60
CLIFF 66 94 66 95 / 60 80 60 70
MULE CREEK 63 89 63 90 / 60 80 60 70
FAYWOOD 65 90 65 90 / 70 60 60 60
ANIMAS 68 93 68 93 / 70 70 80 60
HACHITA 66 92 67 93 / 70 60 70 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 91 67 90 / 80 70 80 70
CLOVERDALE 63 86 63 85 / 80 80 80 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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