895
FXUS64 KEPZ 231139
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
539 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
- MONSOON MOISTURE THINNING OUT, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING.
DECREASING STORM CHANCES TO END THE WORKWEEK, FAVORING AREA
MOUNTAINS.
- HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING THE HEAT; WITH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- MINOR GAINS IN MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND, WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES
RETURNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT
WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
MONSOON MOISTURE IS SLIPPING AWAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WEST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUR LOWER AND MID LEVELS ARE STILL FAIRLY
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN, BUT STILL IN THE 50S, AND OUR PWAT IS
STILL HOLDING ON AT 1.3", BUT OUR UPPER LEVELS HAVE REALLY BEGUN TO
DRY OUT, AND THAT ALONE,HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SURPRISINGLY BIG DROP IN
AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN ADDITION, THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD THICK AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS, AND WILL, RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE TWO TRENDS, DRYING AND WARMING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. THUS, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK "MOSTLY" DRY
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY THAT ONLY THE AREA
MOUNTAINS SEE ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR ANY LOCATION ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WE COULD ALSO BEGIN TO
SEE SOME 100 DEGREE MAX TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
THURSDAY, AND CERTAINLY FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WAS IN
PLACE OVER OUR REGION IN DAYS PAST, WILL HAVE WRAPPED AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH, ON IT'S TRACK NORTH THROUGH AZ, ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS,
EAST ACROSS COLORADO, AND THEN BACK SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO, TO
COMPLETE A ROTATION AROUND THE HIGH, LANDING BACK OVER OUR REGION.
THIS SECOND ITERATION, OF NOW RECYCLED MOISTURE WON'T BE NEAR AS
ABUNDANT AS IT'S FIRST PASSING, BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN, ESPECIALLY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE MOISTURE IS NOT AS ROBUST AS LAST WEEK, WE
WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES HOT, WITH LOWLAND TRIPLES.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE NEAR US, BUT
THEY BOTH RECENTER IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
CONCENTRATE THE MOISTURE OVER AZ AND W NM, WITH A FOCUS OF STORMS
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND PREDOMINATELY WARM/HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS
AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE AREA TODAY BUT WILL BE RIGHT
OVERHEAD TOMORROW. STORM CHANCES WILL STAY LOW END TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH A FOCUS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH FRIDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OUT OF THE WEEK
AHEAD. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WITH
A FOCUS FOR STORMS STILL OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS NEARING THE AZ BORDER WITH MORE ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS. MIN RHS WILL STAY GENERALLY NEAR CRITICAL
WITH SOME CRITICAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS EACH DAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH THE AREA MOUNTAINS SEEING RHS OF 25-45%. 20 FOOT
WINDS STAY LIGHT EACH AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 78 104 80 102 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 70 98 70 97 / 0 10 0 10
LAS CRUCES 71 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 75 101 76 99 / 0 0 0 40
CLOUDCROFT 55 78 57 75 / 0 20 10 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 101 76 100 / 10 10 10 20
SILVER CITY 66 93 68 93 / 10 10 0 50
DEMING 71 102 73 102 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 72 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 79 103 81 101 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 74 102 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 77 105 78 103 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 71 96 72 94 / 0 10 0 10
FABENS 76 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 74 102 77 100 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 102 81 101 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 74 102 77 100 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 72 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 75 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 72 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 60 90 62 86 / 0 30 10 50
MESCALERO 60 89 61 87 / 0 20 10 70
TIMBERON 58 87 59 85 / 0 10 10 50
WINSTON 62 91 65 91 / 10 30 10 50
HILLSBORO 70 98 73 98 / 10 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 71 101 73 100 / 0 0 10 20
LAKE ROBERTS 61 94 62 94 / 10 20 10 80
HURLEY 66 97 69 97 / 10 10 0 30
CLIFF 67 99 69 99 / 10 10 0 60
MULE CREEK 66 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 60
FAYWOOD 68 96 70 96 / 10 10 0 30
ANIMAS 71 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 70 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 68 94 69 95 / 10 10 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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