569
FXUS64 KEPZ 211741
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 945 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER
FAIR SKIES.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC LOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND WINTRY MIX
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WITH ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE FOOT.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. TEMPS RISE BACK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS ON THU UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
SCOOPED UP AHEAD OF IT STARTING THU NIGHT, OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRI. PW ANOMALIES WILL BE 2-4 SIGMA ABOVE
LATE-JANUARY CLIMO ACCORDING TO GLOBAL ENSEMBLES, REACHING NEAR
0.75" DURING THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE BY FRI AM AS MOIST, SW
FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THE
JET STREAK OVERHEAD AND PVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
HIGH POPS (80-90%) FRI-SAT, PEAKING FRI NIGHT. QPF REMAINS HIGH
AMONG THE MODELS FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SET-UP WITH
GENERALLY AROUND 1" TOTAL LIQUID EXPECTED, HIGHER FOR AREA MTNS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY INTO SAT.
MEANWHILE, THE HISTORICALLY STRONG, ARCTIC AIRMASS (1050MB-ISH
HIGH) IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FLEX ITS MUSCLES AND TRY TO
SPILL INTO OUR AREA ON SAT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
REGARDING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR. THE 12Z NAM, WHICH
TENDS TO PERFORM WELL WITH THESE FRONTAL INTRUSIONS, HAS THE COLD
AIR STRUGGLING TO REACH THE RGV ON SAT, KEEPING WINTRY PRECIP IN
HUDSPETH AND THE OTERO MESA LATER IN THE DAY. A BATTLE BETWEEN WAA
AROUND 700MB AND COLD NEAR-SFC AIR WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHAT
PRECIP TYPE FALLS FOR HUDSPETH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE RGV
INCLUDING EL PASO. FREEZING RAIN IS MORE LIKELY TO MIX IN COMPARED
TO SLEET FOR FAR EASTERN AREAS AS THE COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND WAA TENDS TO OVERPERFORM IN THESE OVER-
RUNNING SET-UPS. FZRA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WX GRIDS WITH LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE (0.10" OR LESS) ALONG I-10 AND 62/180
IN HUDSPETH SAT PM WITH ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOR THE
REST OF THE LOWLANDS, MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SAT BEFORE THE
FRONT MAKES A PUSH WESTWARD BY SUN.
AS THE EVENT WINDS DOWN, SNOW LEVELS CRASH TO THE DESERT FLOOR,
ALLOWING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE LOWLANDS SUN AM. PRECIP
CHANCES END DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
AREA MTNS, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN HEAVY AMOUNTS. HIGH
CHANCE (60-80% OF 6" OR MORE) OF WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE SACS AS
THEY WON'T HAVE ANY ISSUE SEEING SNOW STICK, ALTHOUGH SLRS WILL BE
LOW (8:1 OR LESS) FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT. AN UPGRADE TO A
WS.W CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SACS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WARNING CRITERIA BEING REACHED ANYWHERE ELSE. THE
OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH ARE NEXT IN LINE TO SEE HAZARDOUS WINTRY
WX THIS WEEKEND, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THE LOWLANDS WEST OF THE US-54 CORRIDOR HAVE A LOW CHANCE
OF SEEING 1" OR MORE OF SNOW WITH LOWERING CHANCES AS YOU HEAD
TOWARDS AZ. THE BLACKS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS SNOWFALL MAINLY
DUE TO HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING IN DRY AIR BEHIND IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN COLD AIR EARLY IN THE WEEK ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE
FORECAST WITH WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE LOWLANDS
SUN-TUE AMS. COLD WX PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED. NOT MUCH RELIEF
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE WE START TO
WARM UP INTO MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGING RETURNS AND THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES ARE FORECAST AFTER SUN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AOB 6KTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY UNDER SCT-BKN250. CIRRUS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THU, FAVORING A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TOMORROW. TEMPS WARM THROUGH THU TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
FAIR SKIES. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TONIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI-SAT AS
COLD AIR SPILLS IN ON SAT/SUN. SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MTNS WITH HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR THE SACS (NEAR ONE
FOOT). MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH SAT, THEN A
WINTRY MIX SAT NIGHT/SUN AS THE EVENT WRAPS UP. SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK, GUSTING TO 25 MPH. COLD
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% THROUGH THU, THEN 40-70% THROUGH
WEEKEND. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TODAY, THEN POOR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 38 66 46 58 / 0 0 30 90
SIERRA BLANCA 36 66 45 57 / 0 0 20 80
LAS CRUCES 34 62 41 55 / 0 0 40 80
ALAMOGORDO 32 62 39 55 / 0 0 20 80
CLOUDCROFT 29 44 30 35 / 0 0 20 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 61 40 56 / 0 0 20 80
SILVER CITY 37 59 39 50 / 0 10 30 80
DEMING 35 66 43 58 / 0 10 40 90
LORDSBURG 34 63 42 57 / 0 10 40 80
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 65 49 57 / 0 0 40 90
DELL CITY 27 66 38 55 / 0 0 10 70
FORT HANCOCK 36 71 46 63 / 0 0 30 80
LOMA LINDA 38 60 44 52 / 0 0 30 80
FABENS 35 69 46 60 / 0 0 30 80
SANTA TERESA 35 64 45 56 / 0 0 40 90
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 64 47 56 / 0 0 30 90
JORNADA RANGE 31 63 41 56 / 0 0 30 80
HATCH 31 66 41 59 / 0 0 30 80
COLUMBUS 36 66 47 59 / 0 10 40 90
OROGRANDE 33 62 42 55 / 0 0 30 90
MAYHILL 32 59 33 45 / 0 0 10 80
MESCALERO 29 55 31 47 / 0 0 20 80
TIMBERON 30 53 32 45 / 0 0 20 80
WINSTON 27 59 31 52 / 0 0 20 80
HILLSBORO 37 62 41 56 / 0 0 30 80
SPACEPORT 30 62 36 56 / 0 0 20 80
LAKE ROBERTS 33 59 35 50 / 0 10 30 90
HURLEY 33 62 37 54 / 0 10 30 80
CLIFF 32 64 36 57 / 0 0 20 80
MULE CREEK 34 61 36 53 / 0 0 20 80
FAYWOOD 37 61 41 53 / 0 10 30 90
ANIMAS 35 66 45 58 / 0 10 50 80
HACHITA 34 66 44 58 / 0 10 50 80
ANTELOPE WELLS 36 68 43 60 / 0 10 50 90
CLOVERDALE 43 61 46 53 / 0 20 50 90
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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