379
FXUS64 KEPZ 262341
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
541 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- ISOLATED STORM CHANCES TODAY, FOCUSING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND DUST.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TOWARD
THE START OF JULY, FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY,
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE (AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE 40S) AND
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO SPARK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LIKE YESTERDAY, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD (DEW
PT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 50 DEGREES), WHICH MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO THE 0Z HREF,
ESPECIALLY FROM DEMING WESTWARD WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN EASTERN AREAS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST
TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE
INT'L BORDER. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND, FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FURTHER EAST ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL KEEP LOW STORM CHANCES
THROUGH SUN AS PWS REMAIN AOA 1 INCH. HOWEVER, MOST OF OUR AREA WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO OUTSIDE OF FAR WEST TX THIS
WEEKEND AS BREEZY SW WINDS DROP DEW POINTS TO THE 30S. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST (15-25 MPH, GUSTS TO
35 MPH) WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER.
THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
SET UP A NICE TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA OUT OF
MEXICO, LIKELY FOCUSING EAST OF THE RGV. MEAN PWS ARE MODELED TO
STAY RELATIVELY UNCHANGED BETWEEN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK, BUT
THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET-UP FOR THE MONSOON. AS OF
NOW, THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR EASTERN AREAS LATER
IN THE PERIOD. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE RGV
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MODESTLY BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST. TEMPS CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW COOLDOWN INTO NEXT WEEK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY NEAR FAR
SOUTHWEST NM AND THE INT'L BORDER. ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KTCS CAN
EXPECT SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AT LEAST AND WILL START
WINDING DOWN AFTER DARK TURNING INTO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY. DRIER
AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE GILA
NATIONAL FOREST AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRY,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR TODAY,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN GILA
AND IN SW NEW MEXICO. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS OVER 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING WITH NOT MUCH
RAINFALL EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE MODESTLY BREEZY FROM
W-SW THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DEEP MIXING ARE
FORECAST TODAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RESULTS IN
BREEZY SW WINDS SAT AND SUN, CREATING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS (15-25 MPH, GUSTS TO 35) WITH SUNDAY
BEING A BIT WINDIER. FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN TOWARDS THE
90TH %-ILE OR HIGHER THIS WEEKEND. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE FWZ112 SINCE WINDS IN SIERRA COUNTY WILL BE AT
LEAST AS STRONG AS THE SW DESERTS EACH DAY WITH COMPARABLE RHS.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER S AND E THROUGH OTERO COUNTY
AND INTO FAR WEST TX. RECENT RAINFALL, LOWER ERCS, AND HIGHER RHS
WILL KEEP THE LINCOLN OUT OF THE RFW FOR NOW AT LEAST. WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER AFTER SUN, BUT MODEST SW FLOW PERSISTS, KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY. LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES LINGER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE TEMPS SLOWLY COOL DOWN.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 15-30% TODAY, THEN 12-25% THIS WEEKEND. VENT
RATES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 101 76 100 / 20 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 68 96 68 94 / 20 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 69 98 69 98 / 10 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 99 70 99 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 55 75 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 98 69 97 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 91 63 90 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 68 100 68 100 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 97 67 96 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 99 75 98 / 20 0 10 10
DELL CITY 71 100 70 99 / 20 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 74 102 73 101 / 40 10 10 20
LOMA LINDA 69 93 69 92 / 20 0 10 10
FABENS 73 101 73 100 / 20 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 72 98 71 98 / 20 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 100 76 99 / 10 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 99 69 98 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 68 101 69 101 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 101 73 100 / 20 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 69 98 68 97 / 10 0 10 0
MAYHILL 60 88 61 87 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 57 87 58 86 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 55 85 56 85 / 10 0 10 0
WINSTON 59 89 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 96 67 95 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 98 65 97 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 91 58 90 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 64 94 64 94 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 64 97 63 96 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 63 92 62 91 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 93 66 93 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 67 98 67 97 / 20 10 0 0
HACHITA 66 97 66 96 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 97 68 96 / 20 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 65 91 65 90 / 20 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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