296
FXUS64 KEPZ 230422
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1022 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
- MONSOON MOISTURE THINNING OUT, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING.
DECREASING STORM CHANCES TO END THE WORKWEEK, FAVORING AREA
MOUNTAINS.
- HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING THE HEAT; WITH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- MINOR GAINS IN MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND, WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES
RETURNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT
WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
MONSOON MOISTURE IS SLIPPING AWAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WEST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUR LOWER AND MID LEVELS ARE STILL FAIRLY
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN, BUT STILL IN THE 50S, AND OUR PWAT IS
STILL HOLDING ON AT 1.3", BUT OUR UPPER LEVELS HAVE REALLY BEGUN TO
DRY OUT, AND THAT ALONE,HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SURPRISINGLY BIG DROP IN
AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN ADDITION, THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD THICK AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS, AND WILL, RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE TWO TRENDS, DRYING AND WARMING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. THUS, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK "MOSTLY" DRY
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY THAT ONLY THE AREA
MOUNTAINS SEE ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR ANY LOCATION ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WE COULD ALSO BEGIN TO
SEE SOME 100 DEGREE MAX TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
THURSDAY, AND CERTAINLY FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WAS IN
PLACE OVER OUR REGION IN DAYS PAST, WILL HAVE WRAPPED AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH, ON IT'S TRACK NORTH THROUGH AZ, ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS,
EAST ACROSS COLORADO, AND THEN BACK SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO, TO
COMPLETE A ROTATION AROUND THE HIGH, LANDING BACK OVER OUR REGION.
THIS SECOND ITERATION, OF NOW RECYCLED MOISTURE WON'T BE NEAR AS
ABUNDANT AS IT'S FIRST PASSING, BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN, ESPECIALLY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE MOISTURE IS NOT AS ROBUST AS LAST WEEK, WE
WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES HOT, WITH LOWLAND TRIPLES.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE NEAR US, BUT
THEY BOTH RECENTER IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
CONCENTRATE THE MOISTURE OVER AZ AND W NM, WITH A FOCUS OF STORMS
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND PREDOMINATELY WARM/HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISSIPATING SHOWERS, STORMS, AND CLOUD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES SCT-BKN THROUGH 06Z, BUT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS TO FEW-SCT120-150 FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS SLACKENING AND
BECOMING VRB 3-5KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN SE TO E TOMORROW AFTER 16-17Z IN
THE 5-10KT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM
CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OVER AREA MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. SATURATED SOILS WILL
INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN FWZ113 WHERE FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT. RAIN RATES WILL BE LOWER TODAY THAN THEY'VE
BEEN RECENTLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER RHS THAN
YESTERDAY. LOW STORM CHANCES OVER THE GILA AND LINCOLN THROUGH
FRI, THEN MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. HOTTER TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE
WEEKEND, REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 25-50% TODAY, FALLING TO 15-30% BY FRI. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 101 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 96 70 98 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 70 98 71 101 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 75 55 78 / 10 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 98 74 101 / 10 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 64 90 66 93 / 10 0 10 10
DEMING 70 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 69 97 72 99 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 100 79 103 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 102 77 105 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 93 71 96 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 74 101 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 99 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 100 79 102 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 73 99 74 102 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 72 101 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 70 98 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 88 60 90 / 10 10 0 30
MESCALERO 57 87 60 89 / 10 10 0 20
TIMBERON 56 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 60 89 62 91 / 10 20 10 30
HILLSBORO 68 96 70 98 / 10 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 70 98 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 91 61 94 / 10 10 10 20
HURLEY 64 94 66 97 / 10 0 10 10
CLIFF 66 96 67 99 / 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 64 92 66 95 / 20 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 66 93 68 96 / 10 0 10 10
ANIMAS 69 96 71 99 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 68 96 70 99 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 96 70 99 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 91 68 94 / 20 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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