605
FXUS64 KEPZ 230437
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1037 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
- NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DUE IN MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALIZED DUST POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY; OTHERWISE COOLING
DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WE WILL HAVE A QUIET WEEKEND OF WEATHER AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE, WHILE SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL RUN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE SHOULD HAVE A VERY NICE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE NICE WEATHER WILL HOLD
TOGETHER FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
ON MONDAY, AT THE SURFACE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPERATURES, IT WILL USHER IN SOME MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PWS) WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AT AROUND 0.50 INCHES,
BUT AS THE MOISTURE MOVES IN ON MONDAY WE WILL SEE PWS JUMP UP TO
AROUND AN INCH WHICH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN ALOFT WE WILL HAVE
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP BRING IN SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT ALONG WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE
(SPREADING OUT OF AIR ALOFT, DRAWING AIR UP FROM THE SURFACE). THE
COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE MOISTURE SURGE AT
THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE COULD BE STRONG
AS THE SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WE WILL SEE A ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP US DRY AND OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW ON THURSDAY, WHICH MAY GIVE US BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS. THE WEATHER LOOKS NICE INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL NO SIGN OF ANY 100 DEGREES DAYS AS WE FINISH OUT
MAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WE WILL HAVE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
UNLIMITED CEILINGS. OUR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNLIMITED
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. LIKE FRIDAY,
WE WILL SEE LOW END GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
DRIER AIR WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS CONTINUING WHILE TEMPERATURES TICK SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, MOSTLY
DUE TO MINRH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
LOWLANDS, AND THE UPPER-10S ABOVE 7500 FEET.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND IN THE LOWLANDS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS.
DRY CONDITIONS, WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY, WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 90 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 85 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 55 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 88 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 66 44 69 / 0 0 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 90 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 86 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 88 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 90 55 92 / 0 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 59 92 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 57 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 59 91 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 89 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 88 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 55 91 56 94 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 90 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 78 49 81 / 0 10 10 0
MESCALERO 47 77 48 80 / 0 0 10 0
TIMBERON 44 74 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 46 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 86 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 51 87 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 82 48 85 / 0 0 10 0
HURLEY 48 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 88 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 83 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 83 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 86 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 85 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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