428
FXUS64 KEPZ 252335
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
535 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- STORM CHANCES SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIMITED MOSTLY
TO HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- A FEW DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- TYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST. THE SUB-TROPICAL JET
REMAINS NEAR THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN OTERO, HUDSPETH, EL PASO COUNTIES
AND LOCATIONS TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE
LATER IN THE EVENING AFTER 9 PM WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW PATTERN HELPS GENERATE SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE SEVERE THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE REDUCED BUT
STILL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
FLASH FLOODING FROM A FEW STORMS, BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS PREVIOUS DAYS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE A QUIETER DAY AS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL BE
WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH A DRIER, MORE STABLE MASS MOVING INTO
THE REGION. SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO REFLECT THIS WITH ONLY A
FEW BRIEF ISOLATED STORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF EL PASO IN THE EVENING
HOURS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS A DRY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL IN MOST AREAS.
WE WILL RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP ON THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION THAT WILL HELP FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS.
THE OUTLOOK FOR HALLOWEEN ON SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH ON
THE WEST COAST DEEPENS AND MOVES INLAND TOWARD NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A LOT LESS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
IN THE TULAROSA BASIN AND THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
HAVE MORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND 9 PM, MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WINDS AWAY FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND THOSE LESS THAN 10 KNOT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. WE HAVE SOME MID AND HIGH CEILINGS
THIS EARLY EVENING, BUT LATER TONIGHT WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME
CLOUDS, BUT OUR CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED. ON MONDAY WE WILL
AGAIN SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF KELP.
WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250 FOR PARTS OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
DRY CONDITIONS FOR GILA NF, BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS LINCOLN NF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
PREVAILING WIND OUT OF THE SSW AT 5 TO 10 MPH, WITH GOOD VENT
RATES TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL KEEP VENT RATES
POOR TO FAIR THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOISTURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST EARLY THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A BRIEF
WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORESTED AREAS. ERCS ARE VERY LOW AT THE
MOMENT, SO NO FIRE DANGER EXPECTED INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 75 56 77 / 40 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 72 50 74 / 40 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 53 72 51 75 / 10 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 72 50 73 / 40 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 53 37 54 / 50 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 69 49 73 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 50 74 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 48 74 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 75 58 76 / 30 10 0 0
DELL CITY 54 72 52 74 / 60 30 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 60 81 57 82 / 50 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 52 68 51 70 / 40 20 10 0
FABENS 58 77 56 79 / 40 20 10 0
SANTA TERESA 56 74 54 75 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 74 55 76 / 30 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 72 51 74 / 10 10 10 0
HATCH 52 75 51 78 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 71 50 73 / 30 10 10 0
MAYHILL 44 65 41 68 / 60 30 20 0
MESCALERO 43 63 41 64 / 40 10 0 0
TIMBERON 41 60 40 62 / 70 20 10 0
WINSTON 37 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 70 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 49 70 48 73 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 45 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 69 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 75 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 73 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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