921
FXUS64 KEPZ 071217
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
617 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S.
- SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
GILA REGION TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.
- SOME INCREASING MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND THE
FORECAST COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOCAL DOWN TO
NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE SMALL PACIFIC UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF COLORADO AND
STARTING TO SEEP SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO. ELSEWHERE RACHEL CONTINUES
TO CHURN WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA COAST, WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW
SITS WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
ALLOWED GOOD AFTERNOON CU BUILDUPS TODAY AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME
MORE OF THAT ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG CAPPING BETWEEN 500-700 MB WILL
STUNT ANY GROWTH HOWEVER. THE UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH, OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO LINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN DOWN TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GILA/BLACK RANGE WED AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH
THE UPPER LOW'S SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WED NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND POSSIBLY WEST TEXAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOSTLY VANISHED AS THE OFFSHORE
PACIFIC LOW AND TS RACHEL MERGE AND MOVE TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA
BY SUNDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS MERGING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH, SLOWLY BRINGING SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. PWS
INCREASE TO AROUND ONE INCH. THUS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MUCH OF THE
AREA COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS, INCREASING MOISTURE WITH
THE HELP OF SOME RACHEL'S MOISTURE. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GOOD MOISTURE CONTINUES AND BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE REMNANTS OF SIMON MOVING UP TO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THUS, EXPECT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AND A RISK OF
FLOODING MON NIGHT/TUES AS PWS APPROACH RECORD LEVELS AGAIN. THE
MOST CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW AREAS FROM SIERRA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES
EAST COULD SEE THE MOST RAIN. ENSEMBLE QPF PERCENTILES FROM BOTH
GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH MUCH LOWER THAN DETERMINISTIC SO CONFIDENCE STILL
ON THE LOW SIDE BUT DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE GILA REGION AFTER 21-22Z AND
SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE LIKELY TO STAY WEST OF
TCS, BUT SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY REACH DMN AFTER
02-04Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 614 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GILA REGION, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MID-80S
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL MIX DOWN INTO 25-
30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH FAIR TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
VENT RATES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW MIXING
OUTSIDE THE GILA REGION, BUT WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TOMORROW AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 85 63 84 / 10 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 80 57 79 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 60 82 59 80 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 80 57 80 / 0 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 63 41 58 / 10 20 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 80 56 78 / 10 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 53 76 53 73 / 20 10 10 0
DEMING 59 84 59 82 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 60 84 61 82 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 85 64 83 / 10 10 0 0
DELL CITY 60 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 88 63 88 / 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 77 57 76 / 10 10 0 0
FABENS 64 87 62 86 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 84 62 82 / 10 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 84 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 60 83 59 81 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 60 85 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 86 62 84 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 72 46 69 / 10 10 10 0
MESCALERO 47 73 46 70 / 10 20 10 0
TIMBERON 46 69 46 66 / 0 10 10 0
WINSTON 48 73 49 71 / 10 10 10 0
HILLSBORO 58 79 57 77 / 10 10 10 0
SPACEPORT 57 81 57 79 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 76 43 72 / 20 20 10 0
HURLEY 54 79 54 76 / 20 10 0 0
CLIFF 47 84 43 81 / 20 10 10 0
MULE CREEK 43 81 40 78 / 10 10 10 0
FAYWOOD 55 78 56 76 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 60 85 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 59 83 59 82 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 57 80 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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