020
FXUS64 KEPZ 151726
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, BUT
STILL BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID MAY.
- WINDY WEST WINDS AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CREATING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- SOME MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN AREAS MIDWEEK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
TYPICAL SPRING TYPE PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE
START OUT WITH A MEAN TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST WHICH HAS ALREADY
SHIFTED SURFACE WINDS TO THE WSW AND BROUGHT IN MUCH DRIER AIR.
WITH THIS TROUGH TO OUR WEST, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE LOWLANDS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. VERY DRY AIR WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL OFF
INTO THE 50S AND 60S, IT WILL STAY WARMER OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES
THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE AND
KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MIXING GOING. THINK THE 76 DEGREE LOW AT KELP
THIS MORNING WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE COMING DAYS, BUT WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS STAY UP ABOVE 70. DID GO ABOVE NBM
GUIDANCE FOR MANY AREAS BASED ON KEEPING SOME WINDS AND LOOKING AT
LOWS THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA GOING INTO MIDWEEK.
AS IT DOES, MODELS ALL AGREE ON A WEAK LOW/TROUGH SETTING UP OFF
THE BAJA COAST. AS IT DOES, WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND PUSH THE DRYLINE TOWARD THE RGV. ALWAYS SOME
QUESTION WITH THE INITIAL WESTWARD PUSH WITH THESE, BUT THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT THERE WILL BE SOME STORM CHANCES AT LEAST IN
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH COOLING EXCEPT
OUT IN THE FAR EAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
P6SM SKC-FEW150 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-20G30KTS THROUGH 03Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO AOB 12KTS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL KEEP SOME GUSTY
WINDS GOING THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH MIN RH'S OVER THE LOWLANDS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND WINDS PICKING UP TO AT LEAST 10-20G30 MPH DAILY WITH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WINDIEST DAYS WHEN CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SUNDAY, BUT SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE WITH WINDS JUST A LITTLE SHORT
OF CRITICAL SPEEDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONSTANTLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. SOME MOISTURE
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE FAR EAST WED/THU AND BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 94 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 55 90 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 47 68 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 90 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 81 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 52 90 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 88 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 92 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 92 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 96 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 60 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 64 95 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 91 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 92 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 51 90 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 55 92 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 82 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 79 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 45 76 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 44 83 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 54 88 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 89 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 82 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 84 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 87 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 83 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 84 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 53 88 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 87 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 87 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 81 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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