857
FXUS64 KEPZ 211659
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1059 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MOSTLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS. STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND MIDDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY 10
TO 20%.
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN A CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
WEAK UPPER LOW DETACHED FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM WELL TO OUR
NORTH RESTS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS ALLOWED SOME MEAGER MOISTURE TO MOVE UP
INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PWS IN
0.7-0.9" JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST, MOSTLY ACROSS CHIHUAHUA AND BIG
BEND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO FAVORING AREAS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FURTHER SOUTH TODAY.
INCREASED POPS TO MENTIONABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN
LUNA/DONA ANA COUNTIES AND ALL OF EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES DUE TO
RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT. NBM GUIDANCE WASN'T NEARLY AS BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT SHOULD BE, GIVEN CURRENT MESOANALYSIS.
I EXPECT SPOTTY, HIT-AND-MISS (20-30% COVERAGE) SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY BETWEEN 2-7 PM. COVERAGE WILL FAVOR NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA INITIALLY WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE, THEN MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS MID-AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE MOSTLY LOW-QPF AND VIRGA SHOWERS DUE TO DRY LOW
LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS INDICATED BY
"INVERTED-V" SOUNDING PROFILES. HRRR SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF
STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST MOVING NORTH OUT OF
MEXICO, REACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND THE 5-6 PM
TIMEFRAME, WHICH WILL BE WORTH MONITORING.
WEAK PACIFIC LOW WILL MAKE A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION ONSHORE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATING THIS WEEKEND, REPLACED
BY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. DRIER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST FLOW
FLUSHES MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. WARM, TYPICAL LATE MAY
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
SKY COVER WILL ALSO BE LOWER, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY.
A SECOND ORPHAN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE THE LOWER PACIFIC
COAST ON MONDAY, OFFERING A MORE FAVORABLE FETCH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND POSITIVE VORTICITY. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALMOST AREA
WIDE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 50-70% CHANCES
FOR RAIN THIS TIMEFRAME, FAVORING NEW MEXICO'S HIGH TERRAIN.
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY ON THE BOTH GLOBAL MODELS, ALSO
INDICATING A WARMUP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
PREVAILING CONDITIONS WIND 220-240 AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SKIES SCT-
BKN100. ISOLATED -TSRA ACROSS S CHIHUAHUA AND ALONG INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH CB APPROACHING KELP BETWEEN 21-01Z.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TEMPORARY VRB30G40KT AND BLDU WITH VIS
2-4SM. WILL AMEND KELP TAF AS CONDITIONS CHANGE THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AT S NM
TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS SKC WITH SURFACE WINDS 240-290 AT
05-10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND MIN RH 10 TO 15%.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR WITH VERY GOOD VENT RATES. TYPICAL LATE MAY
TEMPERATURES. EVEN LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HUMIDITY REMAINS VERY LOW. AFTERNOON CUMULUS GROWTH OVER LOCAL
FORESTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY RAIN.
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL IMPROVE FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR LINCOLN AND GILA NATIONAL FORESTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH MIN RH INCREASING TO 20-30%. RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ERCS LONG-TERM. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR
NEW LIGHTNING STARTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 89 65 90 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 84 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 54 86 55 87 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 64 43 66 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 88 56 90 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 53 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 87 64 88 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 89 55 89 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 59 91 62 92 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 57 81 58 82 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 59 90 61 91 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 86 58 87 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 88 64 89 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 89 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 88 62 89 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 85 56 86 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 77 48 77 / 10 10 0 20
MESCALERO 46 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 43 73 44 74 / 10 0 0 10
WINSTON 46 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 55 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 86 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 47 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 85 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 84 55 85 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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