748
FXUS64 KEPZ 230421
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1021 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WE WILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 COOLER THAN WE SAW ON SUNDAY, BUT
MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
- THE RECORD HEAT RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN WE
WILL LIKELY SET DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WE COULD
SET EVEN MORE RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THIS WEEK, WITH SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL GIVE US HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A BACK DOOR (EAST TO WEST) COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL SWING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST OR THE EAST, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE FRONT WILL TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OF OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY, THOUGH, THE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
STILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REGAINS STRENGTH AND BEGINS TO
RECENTER ITSELF OVER NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
JUMP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RUN 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MORE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND WE COULD SEE
MORE MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL WHICH WE JUST SET
THIS WEEKEND.
BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, BUT AT THE
SURFACE A SECOND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SECOND FRONT LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER AND WE WILL SEE FRIDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE EAST OF EL PASO AND AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER. THE
COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, SO THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY RUN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE. FOR NEXT
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A PATTERN CHANGE TAKE PLACE WITH MOISTURE ON
THE INCREASE AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT
FIRST WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH THIS WEEK'S RECORD SETTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THAT WILL SWING OUR WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE MAY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE WEST SIDE OF AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR
CLOUDS WE WILL HAVE OFF AND ON HIGH CEILINGS TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. TODAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHIFTING WINDS EASTERLY. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY WITH THE FRONT, GENERALLY 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH WEST FACING SLOPES. A 5-15 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW END AFTERNOON BREEZES EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
MPH. BREEZIER AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-15
MPH. THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN THE GILA REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY.
MIN RH VALUES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND MUCH OF HUDSPETH
COUNTY (EXCLUDING THE LOWER VALLEY) WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS WITH MIN RHS OF 17-20%. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE CRITICAL MIN
RHS TOMORROW. THE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN SINGLE
DIGIT LOWLAND MIN RHS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EVEN THE GILA REGION AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL SEE SINGLE DIGIT MIN RHS OF 7-9%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 85 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 79 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 51 82 51 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 82 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 64 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 84 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 86 50 92 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 53 85 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 83 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 50 79 46 93 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 87 53 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 77 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 86 55 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 82 52 92 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 83 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 83 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 50 87 48 93 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 85 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 51 81 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 37 75 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 74 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 70 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 41 79 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 51 84 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 47 83 47 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 80 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 48 81 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 49 87 47 90 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 51 83 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 80 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 53 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 52 84 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 87 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 84 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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