067
FXUS64 KEPZ 162331
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
- BREEZY WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
FOR WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 6AM OR SO. WINDS STAY BREEZY UP THERE IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WHAT WE'LL SEE TONIGHT/TOMORROW
MORNING. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TOMORROW FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE IN NORMAL DUST AREAS, BUT
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED. THE BREEZY DAYS
WE HAD RECENTLY DID NOT CAUSE A LOT OF DUST ISSUES, BUT CERTAINLY
SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
WINDS START TO RELAX AFTER SUNSET ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCOMING SIDE DOOR AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS START TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH ALL SITES WITH AN EAST WIND. BREEZES WON'T BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT, BUT MAYBE 10-20 MPH THAT AFTERNOON. BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOL AIR COMES IN FROM THE
PLAINS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ON WEST FACING SLOPES
(LIKE WEST EL PASO AND THE HUECO TANKS). THIS WILL BE TRUE WITH
THE FIRST PUSH AS WELL DUE TO AN EASTERLY WIND. IN ADDITION, WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER APPEARANCE OF HAZY SKIES FROM BOTH PUSHES FROM
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 8-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE LOWLANDS AND MID
40S TO MID 50S IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE SEEPS INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SOME
RAIN CHANCES. BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE WEST TX WITH LESSER
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. TIME FRAME WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOOKING MUCH BREEZIER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND AT 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING
DUST POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AN EAST WIND CAUSING BLOWING DUST
ISN'T SUPER COMMON BUT IT CAN HAPPEN. LAST YEAR WE HAD A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT CAUSED WINDY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE,
INCLUDING THE LORDSBURG PLAYA. BLOWING DUST OCCURRED ON THE PLAYA
AND CAUSED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS VISIBILITY THAT UNFORTUNATELY ENDED
IN A FEW DEATHS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SKIES FEW-SCT250 OVERNIGHT, THEN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR FRIDAY. SURFACE
WINDS 230-260 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET. STRONGER WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY 240-270 AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
MIDDAY. PATCHY BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE TOMORROW, LEADING TO HAZY
SKIES BUT NO LESS THAN 5 MILES VISIBILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
CRITICAL MIN RHS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY WITH
VALUES GENERALLY 9-15% ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS AND 17-25%
FOR THE AREA MOUNTAINS. WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS AND EAST SLOPES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN
WILL BECOME BREEZY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR WEST TX. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-18 MPH. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE HIGHER WINDS AT 15-25 MPH. AN INCOMING
SIDE DOOR AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN LATE FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY SATURDAY AND WILL
BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. WINDS RELAX A BIT
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-13 MPH.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR
WEST FACING SLOPES. WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-20 MPH BUT MIN
RHS WILL RISE UP TO 15-25%. RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN FAR WEST TX, AND
LESSER CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
MIN RHS RISE OUT OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MONDAY WITH VALUES OF
17-30% AND 30-55% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES
EXPECTED MONDAY AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COUPLED WITH CRITICAL
RHS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 57 83 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 79 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 79 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 56 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 79 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 69 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 76 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 81 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 82 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 57 87 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 75 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 84 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 80 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 80 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 79 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 82 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 82 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 79 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 69 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 67 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 65 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 37 71 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 48 76 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 79 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 69 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 41 73 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 40 76 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 39 71 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 72 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 78 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA
NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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