818
FXUS64 KEPZ 091121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 358 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
- WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR WEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECOND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
..MONDAY
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE
THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE A SLOW PROGRESSION ONSHORE ON
MONDAY. THE EL PASO REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON MONDAY,
WITH A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH
MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS.
..TUESDAY
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS CHIHUAHUA TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE RETURNS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL JUMP INTO THE LOWER 50S AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE
NORTH OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FAVORING
WEST TEXAS AND MUCH OF I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
00Z HRRR SUGGESTS SURFACE INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG) WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS END UP WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS 0.50-0.75", ESPECIALLY FOR EL PASO/HUDSPETH
COUNTIES AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE TRANS-PECOS TERRITORY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.
..WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SYSTEM EXITS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH BROAD RIDGING FLOW
BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOOK DRY AND WARM, WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH
DAYS WILL PROMOTE THIS SUBTLE WARMING TREND. THIS WOULD MEAN
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
..FRIDAY
PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK, MOST LIKELY FRIDAY, AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, THUS ALLOWING FOR HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW (ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ABOVE 7,000 FEET). OVERALL QPF IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
..NEXT WEEKEND
NEXT WEEKEND CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL PATTERN HEADED INTO MID-FEBRUARY FEATURES A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, SUGGESTING A WETTER-THAN-USUAL
PATTERN FOR THE WEST COAST DURING THIS TYPICALLY DRY SPRING
SEASON. THIS COULD ALSO INDICATE THE START OF OUR WINDY SEASON,
WITH UPPER JET STREAKS INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH SKC-FEW250 FOR NEW
MEXICO SITES AND SCT-BKN250 FOR ELP. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIN RH VALUES
IN THE TEENS. THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GILA AND
SACRAMENTO/ CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH
SPEEDS RANGING 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. VENTING WILL BE GOOD
IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT POOR IN THE LOWLANDS. BY TUESDAY, MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 67 46 70 / 10 50 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 63 43 67 / 20 70 30 0
LAS CRUCES 46 66 42 67 / 10 30 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 43 67 40 67 / 0 40 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 48 33 48 / 0 40 30 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 68 44 69 / 0 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 42 64 41 63 / 0 30 10 10
DEMING 45 69 44 70 / 10 40 20 10
LORDSBURG 43 66 44 68 / 10 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 66 48 69 / 10 50 20 0
DELL CITY 46 64 40 68 / 10 50 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 71 46 74 / 20 70 20 0
LOMA LINDA 49 61 43 64 / 10 50 20 0
FABENS 51 68 45 72 / 20 60 20 0
SANTA TERESA 48 65 45 69 / 10 40 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 67 47 68 / 10 40 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 43 68 40 68 / 0 30 20 0
HATCH 43 70 42 71 / 0 30 20 0
COLUMBUS 48 67 47 70 / 20 40 20 0
OROGRANDE 45 65 43 67 / 10 40 20 0
MAYHILL 41 60 35 62 / 0 40 20 0
MESCALERO 38 60 34 60 / 0 40 30 10
TIMBERON 41 56 37 56 / 10 40 20 0
WINSTON 34 63 34 62 / 0 20 10 10
HILLSBORO 44 67 43 69 / 0 20 10 10
SPACEPORT 41 67 39 67 / 0 20 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 64 37 62 / 0 30 10 20
HURLEY 41 66 40 65 / 0 30 10 10
CLIFF 39 70 39 69 / 0 20 10 10
MULE CREEK 39 67 40 65 / 0 20 10 10
FAYWOOD 45 65 43 65 / 0 30 20 10
ANIMAS 46 66 45 70 / 10 30 20 0
HACHITA 43 65 44 69 / 10 30 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 66 43 70 / 20 40 10 0
CLOVERDALE 47 61 45 66 / 10 40 20 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page