286
FXUS64 KEPZ 051133
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
533 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH. PATCHY BLOWING DUST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
- WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEK WITH FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOWLAND TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOWER 90S BY
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS OVER NM AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES WESTERN NM IN THE EARLY AM WITH ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS ON TUE UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR ALOFT POKES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LEE-SIDE LOW FORMS OVER E NM
AND INDUCES A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. BREEZY TO
LOW- END WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM THE WEST TUE
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES, NEARING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. E SLOPES OF THE SACS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE 50 MPH GUSTS DURING THE DAY AS 700MB FLOW NEARS 50KTS. PATCHY
BLDU AND VIS TO 5 MILES OR BELOW CAN BE SEEN LATER IN THE DAY,
MOST LIKELY FOR FAR WEST TX AND EL PASO AS THE CHIHUAHUAN DUST
SOURCES ACTIVATE.
WINDS SETTLE ON WED, BUT STILL BREEZY AS THE UPPER TROUGH HANGS
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FOR
THU, FLIPPING WINDS TO EASTERLY WITH SOME GUSTINESS FOR WEST
SLOPES. OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WHILE A WEAK, DRY UPPER
LOW SKIRTS ACROSS NW MEXICO. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES NEAR ZERO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STAY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN WARMING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS REACH INTO
THE LOW 90S LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS S NM AND W TX, GENERALLY
230-260 AT 20G30KT. PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 21-00Z, WITH
VISIBILITY FALLING TO 3-5 MILES AT KDMN/KELP DUE TO BLDU. DID NOT
INCLUDE IN MENTION OF BLDU IN CURRENT TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. WILL AMEND WHEN NECESSARY. SKIES GENERALLY FEW-SCT070
SCT-BKN250 TODAY. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, RECENT RAINS, AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL PREVENT THE
NEED FOR RED FLAGS TODAY. PORTIONS OF GILA NATIONAL FOREST MAY
ALSO SEE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN TODAY. MIN RH 25-40% WITH WSW WINDS
20-30 MPH AND EXCELLENT VENTILATION. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG
OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND EAST SLOPES. SMOKE TRANSPORT TO THE ENE.
MUCH DRIER ON WEDNESDAY, WITH RH FALLING TO 15-25%. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY 15-20 MPH, BUT BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS CONDITIONS BECOME
WARMER AND DRIER. ERCS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY AFTER RECENT
RAINS, WHICH WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER MODERATE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 52 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 46 74 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 74 46 75 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 52 30 56 / 10 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 75 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 65 41 71 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 45 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 72 43 77 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 53 77 44 76 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 56 83 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 71 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 54 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 50 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 76 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 65 33 67 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 37 63 34 66 / 10 0 0 10
TIMBERON 37 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 33 68 35 70 / 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 44 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 33 67 35 72 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 69 40 74 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 38 73 41 78 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 37 68 40 74 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 69 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 74 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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