873
FXUS64 KEPZ 130506
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1106 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
- INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO WINDY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST. LIGHTER WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY.
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE GILA REGION. THESE WILL HELP BRING GUSTIER
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
- BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, EMBEDDED IN A DEEP TROUGH,
WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE'LL REMAIN IN
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY, AND A WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO NEW MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHILE A JET STREAM RAMPS UP OVER 100 KNOTS IN ARIZONA.
A THIN STREAM OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC, AND SOME MODESTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER-30S MAY ALSO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN
SONORA. THE HREF HAS BEEN RAMPING UP CHANCES FOR WEAK CONVECTION
IN THE LOWLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE GILA REGION. EXPECT WE'LL SEE SCANT PRECIP FROM THE
LOWLAND STORMS, BUT "VIRGA BOMBS" MAY HELP ENHANCE SURFACE WIND
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TOMORROW WOULD NORMALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS, BUT
THE INTRODUCTION OF CONVECTION WILL BALANCE THIS OUT.
EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING DUST, AND A FEW AREAS OF DENSER
BLOWING DUST WHERE CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW LENDS A HAND.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAK INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT ROLLS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY. WE'LL BE DRY-SLOTTED ALOFT, AND WSW WINDS
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN, WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND A RENEWED CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST.
QUIETER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL BE BROADER, AND WILL PASS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH. STILL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WE'LL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER WITH THE MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S INCREASING THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO, BUT BRIEF LLWS IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT ELP,
AFTER WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF A BIT.
HREF SHOWING INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
LOWLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK WIND GUSTS.
MARGINAL DEWPOINTS SUGGEST VIRGA-DOWNBURSTS MAY HELP BRING
STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE, MITIGATING ANY DIMINISHED TURBULENT
MIXING DUE TO WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. INTRODUCED
SOME TEMPO GROUPS AT DMN AND LRU TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW AT ELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 939 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AHEAD. LOW
END CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
MOSTLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL BE FAVORED. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL DAY TO
WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS QUITE WINDY COUPLED WITH NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL MIN RHS.
20 FOOT WINDS: 10-20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
10-15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY. LIGHT BREEZES
THURSDAY AT 5-15 MPH. FRIDAY COULD BECOME WINDY.
MIN RHS: 15-25% MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS (30-45% IN AREA
MOUNTAINS). THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DIP INTO
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT 13-15%. LOWLAND RHS DIP TO 11-20% (30-40%
AREA MOUNTAINS) TUESDAY. SINGLE DIGIT LOWLAND RHS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY (13-20% AREA MOUNTAINS). LOWLAND RHS 8-12% AND 15-20% IN
THE AREA MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 83 60 81 / 0 10 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 52 79 55 77 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 52 78 52 76 / 0 20 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 52 78 53 76 / 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 37 55 38 53 / 0 20 30 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 75 53 74 / 0 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 44 67 43 64 / 10 50 50 10
DEMING 52 79 50 76 / 0 30 40 10
LORDSBURG 49 75 47 73 / 10 30 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 81 60 80 / 0 10 10 10
DELL CITY 50 82 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 87 58 85 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 53 75 52 73 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 56 85 59 83 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 80 55 79 / 0 10 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 80 59 78 / 0 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 51 78 49 76 / 0 20 20 10
HATCH 53 80 52 78 / 0 30 30 10
COLUMBUS 59 81 56 80 / 0 20 20 10
OROGRANDE 51 78 51 76 / 0 10 10 10
MAYHILL 44 67 43 66 / 0 20 10 10
MESCALERO 41 65 41 64 / 0 30 30 10
TIMBERON 41 64 40 62 / 0 10 10 10
WINSTON 40 67 40 65 / 0 20 30 10
HILLSBORO 50 74 49 71 / 0 30 30 10
SPACEPORT 49 76 47 74 / 0 10 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 39 67 36 63 / 0 60 60 10
HURLEY 44 71 42 68 / 0 50 50 10
CLIFF 44 74 42 70 / 10 40 50 10
MULE CREEK 41 70 38 65 / 10 40 50 10
FAYWOOD 46 71 45 68 / 0 40 40 10
ANIMAS 52 76 50 75 / 10 30 20 0
HACHITA 52 76 50 76 / 10 30 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 52 77 51 76 / 0 20 10 0
CLOVERDALE 50 70 46 70 / 10 40 20 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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