548
FXUS64 KEPZ 230423
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1023 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
|.KEY MESSAGES... UPDATED AT 1022 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE REGION. SOME
STRONGER STORMS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY LIMITED TO EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY AND
BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN UPPER LOW NOW OVER WESTERN NEVADA. LOW WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING OUT NORTHWARD AS A SECONDARY LOW EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF OVER SOCAL AND ARIZONA. LEADING TROUGH FROM THE LOW EXTENDS N-S
ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE LINE WITH GOOD DRYING BEHIND IT.
THIS TROUGH DELINEATES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS EVENING'S
CONVECTION. A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT FROM WESTERN ARIZONA DOWN
ACROSS THE BAJA WILL CONTINUE EAST POSSIBLY NEAR THE AZ/NM BEFORE
WASHING OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT. THIS
WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWA (PWS OF AROUND .6 INCHES
COMPARED TO 1.0 INCH IN THE EAST). DECENT CAPE VALUES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION AGAIN FROM ABOUT DEMING EAST, WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS
TO THE WEST, THOUGH SOME SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF
THIS LINE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
FROM ARIZONA UP TO SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL PUSH DEEPER LAYERED
MOISTURE EAST OF THE RG VALLEY, WHERE DECENT CHANCES OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE. EXPECT BEST STORM COVERAGE FROM THE RG VALLEY, WITH JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST. LOWERING PWS ALL AREAS SUGGEST
LESS CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING. SOME SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE RG VALLEY EAST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN UPPER LOW EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT (AT LEAST AT UPPER LEVELS). GFS SHOWS MID-LEVEL
WINDS (700MB) REMAINING SOUTHERLY AND KEEPING SOME SHALLOWER
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN CWA, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
FROM EL PASO EAST. MOISTURE CLEARS OUT TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL WINDS
BRIEFLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GFS REMAINS BULLISH IN BRINGING UP MORE
MOISTURE WITH THE HELP OF A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA.
THUS GFS HAS WEST TWO DAYS HERE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT080 BKN150 BKN250.
ISOLATED OVC050 3-5SM TSRA, MAINLY WEST OF THE RG VALLEY, UNTIL
AROUND 08Z. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS. AFTER 20Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING, MOSTLY
FROM ABOUT DEMING EAST. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 10-
15G25 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 09Z, THEN VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
FIRE THREAT REMAINS LOW WILL ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH RH'S REMAINING ABOVE 30%. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SEVERE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 84 59 79 / 50 60 80 60
SIERRA BLANCA 59 81 55 77 / 10 40 50 40
LAS CRUCES 58 78 54 75 / 70 40 50 60
ALAMOGORDO 60 80 55 75 / 30 50 60 50
CLOUDCROFT 46 65 42 60 / 20 50 60 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 74 54 69 / 100 40 50 60
SILVER CITY 52 69 49 65 / 90 50 30 50
DEMING 56 78 54 75 / 80 40 30 30
LORDSBURG 57 75 54 72 / 60 30 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 83 61 78 / 60 60 80 60
DELL CITY 61 84 58 77 / 0 40 50 70
FORT HANCOCK 65 91 62 85 / 10 40 60 50
LOMA LINDA 58 78 55 73 / 20 60 70 70
FABENS 63 88 60 82 / 40 60 70 60
SANTA TERESA 61 81 57 77 / 70 60 80 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 82 58 77 / 40 50 70 70
JORNADA RANGE 59 79 54 75 / 60 50 70 60
HATCH 58 80 54 76 / 90 40 50 50
COLUMBUS 60 81 57 78 / 60 20 30 20
OROGRANDE 59 81 55 75 / 20 50 60 70
MAYHILL 51 75 48 66 / 10 50 60 80
MESCALERO 50 74 46 69 / 20 60 60 80
TIMBERON 48 71 44 65 / 20 50 50 70
WINSTON 48 70 45 65 / 90 40 40 40
HILLSBORO 54 74 51 70 / 100 40 50 50
SPACEPORT 56 76 52 72 / 80 50 60 50
LAKE ROBERTS 51 71 48 67 / 100 60 30 40
HURLEY 52 72 49 68 / 90 60 30 40
CLIFF 56 75 53 72 / 80 50 20 50
MULE CREEK 53 70 49 67 / 80 50 20 50
FAYWOOD 54 71 51 68 / 90 60 40 40
ANIMAS 57 78 54 74 / 30 10 0 20
HACHITA 57 78 54 74 / 50 30 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 81 54 76 / 30 10 0 10
CLOVERDALE 55 73 51 69 / 40 10 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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