103
FXUS64 KEPZ 021722
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1122 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WEST FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY,
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A WEAK UL LOW OVER NW NM IS PROVIDING US WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
A FEW SHOWERS. THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND WILL SHEAR OUT/ABSORB INTO THE MAIN TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SO COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN OVER THE GILA.
THIS SYSTEM IS REPLACED BY A S/W RIDGE FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL JUMP UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES. A WEAK S/W TROUGH WILL TRY TO CUT
THROUGH THE RIDGE, BRINGING MAINLY CLOUDS. CAMS SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
ON SIM REFLECTIVITY AND PREVIOUS DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAD QPF, SO
ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES. CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL QPF IS PRETTY
LOW.
THE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST, REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, IT WILL SLIP INTO THE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING SW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THIS IS THANKS TO A
LARGE, DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER CA/NV. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL SLIP
THROUGH THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA PLUS THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AIR FILLING IN
BEHIND IT AS THE LOW OVER CA STARTS SWEEPING EAST AS A TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY ON THE BACK HALF OF THE THIS TROUGH BUT
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED. WE WILL FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH/ CLOSED
LOW AT THE BASE OF THE RIDGE, OFF THE BAJA COAST. A S/W RIDGE
WILL FILL THE GAP AND THAT WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS FOR THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW MOISTURE
STARTING TO DRAW IN AHEAD OF THE BAJA LOW ON FRIDAY THOUGH WITH NO
POPS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW TRANSLATES EAST AND EVOLVES, WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT IS JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST WINDOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE
SKIES. BASES WILL BE AS LOW AS 040. ISO SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW
FOR TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY (080-110) WITH SPEEDS BELOW
10 KNOTS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE MID 30S. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE GILA. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP ABOUT 10 DEGREES
FOR SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO MID RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S. WE
DRY FURTHER FOR MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND, BUT WINDS WILL
STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY,
BUT MIN RH VALUES INCREASE BACK ABOVE 20%. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 81 62 85 / 0 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 45 76 54 81 / 10 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 46 77 55 81 / 10 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 45 73 54 80 / 20 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 53 42 57 / 20 10 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 76 56 80 / 20 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 44 71 51 72 / 20 10 10 0
DEMING 48 81 55 84 / 10 10 10 0
LORDSBURG 51 78 53 79 / 0 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 79 63 83 / 0 10 10 0
DELL CITY 45 78 52 84 / 0 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 84 59 88 / 10 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 48 73 57 77 / 0 10 10 0
FABENS 51 82 59 86 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 49 78 57 82 / 0 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 77 62 81 / 10 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 43 76 53 80 / 10 10 10 0
HATCH 45 79 55 82 / 10 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 51 82 59 85 / 0 10 10 0
OROGRANDE 45 75 54 80 / 10 10 10 0
MAYHILL 35 66 46 71 / 20 10 10 0
MESCALERO 35 63 46 69 / 20 10 10 0
TIMBERON 35 61 45 67 / 10 10 10 0
WINSTON 36 68 43 71 / 30 20 10 0
HILLSBORO 46 73 55 77 / 20 10 10 0
SPACEPORT 43 74 51 79 / 10 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 71 46 72 / 30 10 10 0
HURLEY 43 74 50 77 / 10 10 10 0
CLIFF 45 78 50 78 / 30 10 10 0
MULE CREEK 43 75 48 74 / 10 10 10 0
FAYWOOD 45 72 53 75 / 10 10 10 0
ANIMAS 50 80 54 81 / 0 10 10 0
HACHITA 48 78 54 80 / 0 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 81 54 80 / 0 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 50 76 53 74 / 0 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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