045
FXUS64 KEPZ 180343
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
943 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 943 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY, AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE NINETIES
ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
- MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BREAK THEIR ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS
FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. FOR EL PASO, THAT RECORD IS 93 DEGREES,
AND HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 95 TO 97 DEGREES.
- RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 PERCENT IN THE
LOWLANDS DURING THE WORST HEAT. BUT LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. BUT
THE RAPID DRYING OF FUELS IS A CONCERN, AS WINDS ARE BOUND TO
RETURN IN THE COMING WEEKS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING STOUT REX BLOCK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BEGINNING TO BREAKDOWN AS ANCHOR HIGH OVER SOCAL CONTINUES DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY TO FORM A MORE CONVENTIONAL BLOCKING HIGH BY
THURSDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST,
VERY DRY AIR HAS ROTATED OVER THE THE CWA AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED FURTHER EAST. BOTH GFS/NAM12 SHOW SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE
TROUGHS DROPPING DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CORRESPONDING WEAK SURGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ATTENDANT NORTH WINDS. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRMASS TO
OUR NORTH ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND MODELS ONLY
SHOWING VERY WEAK TEMP ADVECTION.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT, UPPER HIGH MOVEMENT AND WARMING OF 850MB TEMPS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAT WAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER US. BY
TOMORROW, WEDNESDAY, WE WILL WARM BACK UP ABOUT 10-15 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL, AND 15 TO 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT NBM PERCENTILES, THE 50TH SHOWS LOWLAND HIGHS
AROUND 90-95 THU THROUGH SUN, WHILE THE 90TH SHOWS THOSE SAME
SITES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 91-97. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MANY DAILY
HIGH TEMP RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN, AND SOME ALL-TIME MARCH HIGHS
ALSO FACE BREAKAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH 8-12G17 KNOTS AFTER 09Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BRINGS UNUSUALLY HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT LITTLE
WIND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH RAPID DRYING OF FUELS AND
WHERE THAT WILL PUT US ONCE THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN.
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (WELL INTO THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS), WITH MIN RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 3 TO 6 PERCENT IN THE LOWLANDS, AND 8 TO 10
PERCENT EVEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY, BUT THERE'S A CHANCE IT'LL FAIL TO PUSH WEST OF THE
SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES OFF
THEIR PEAK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTH.
BEYOND THAT, WE'LL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR INCREASING WINDS
AS WE'LL BE LEFT WITH A TINDERBOX ONCE THE HEAT SUBSIDES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 82 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 84 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 40 86 45 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 65 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 53 85 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 47 81 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 87 49 92 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 43 84 45 90 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 86 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 40 86 43 93 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 46 90 49 94 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 44 81 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 89 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 85 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 86 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 86 42 90 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 89 44 93 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 87 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 84 43 89 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 38 76 38 84 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 35 77 36 82 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 35 73 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 40 80 38 85 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 50 84 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 40 85 41 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 34 83 29 87 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 83 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 32 88 33 93 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 85 30 88 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 82 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 84 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 84 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 84 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page