760
FXUS64 KEPZ 252320
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
520 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2020
AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST GENERALLY BELOW 15 KTS. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
29
PREV DISCUSSION...202 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2020
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WEATHER. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HERE AND THERE, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A STRONGER BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AND WEST SLOPES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN
THIS NEXT WEEK, STARTING MONDAY. THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS
IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS COULD SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TO JUST BELOW SEASONAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER
REGION WITH STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES LEADING TO LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL INCREASE WEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT
IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS. EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS, WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS
WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE AROUND KELP.
FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS AGAIN WITH A 100 DEGREE READING POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10-20 MPH
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLE AREA.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GET SHOVED TO OUR WEST,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE AREA. A LEE SIDE TROUGH
PERSISTS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING AND DAY, WHICH WILL
KEEP WINDS BREEZY. WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH, THROUGH CO & KS.
THE TALK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS UP ON OUR EASTERN DOORSTEP
VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING (06Z). MODELS AGREE ON THE BACKDOOR
COLDFRONT PUSHING THROUGH TO OUR WESTERN BORDER (AZ/NM) BY DAY
BREAK MONDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE WITH THIS AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES. SURFACE WINDS COULD REACH UP TO 20 - 25 KTS
SUSTAINED IN AREAS IN HUDSPETH AND EL PASO COUNTIES MONDAY
MORNING. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST, AND A WIND ADVISORY
MIGHT BE NEEDED.
MONDAY MORNINGS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY, WITH AREAS AT OR
ABOVE 7,500FT IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SEEING NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST OR SECOND FREEZE OF THE
SEASON FOR SOME AREAS (THE FIRST BEING EARLIER THIS MONTH WITH
THE CHILLY BACKDOOR ON THE 8TH). MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO 10 - 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR, AS THIS
FRONT WILL BE VERY DRY. WITH THESE CLEAR SKIES (LEADING TO OPTIMAL
COOLING), TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES
MORE, MAKING THIS THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD. MAKE SURE TO
COVER PLANTS AND SHELTER ANIMALS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN AREAS,
WHERE LOWS COULD HIT FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOW
LAND AREAS WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVELS EAST, IT REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AREA AND PARKS OVER THAT REGION FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. A FEW SURGES OF COOLER AIR WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH
MID WEEK, GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY, COLD AIR RUSHING
DOWN THE PLAINS. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS TIME
(VS TX FOR THE ONE ON MONDAY), THE TRACK OF THIS COOLER SURFACE
AIR IS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVES OVER OK
& EASTERN TX, A RATHER ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE ROTATES SOUTHWARD,
THROUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MORE BROAD TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE
SETS UP OVER NM THURSDAY, AND MIGHT ALLOW SOME OF THE COOLER AIR
TO WASH INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
EASTERLY, BUT EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME BREEZIER WINDS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALL OF THIS SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL FOR THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST MIGHT TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
FLATTENING RIDGE WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION RESULTING IN WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS WELL. THE WEST WINDS WILL BRING IN VERY DRY AIR WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 8-13 PERCENT RANGE. VENT RATES
WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN A 15-25 DEGREE DROP AND
HUMIDITY VALUES RISING TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
26-GRZYWACZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 98 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 95 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 63 96 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 62 95 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 73 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 94 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 62 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 60 96 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 93 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 58 98 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 64 98 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 63 92 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 65 98 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 97 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 97 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 96 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 63 97 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 96 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 64 95 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 56 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 52 85 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 49 83 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 51 87 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 55 95 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 86 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 59 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 92 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 60 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 94 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 93 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 58 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
26-GRZYWACZ/31-DHUYVETTER/29-CRESPO
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