974
FXUS64 KEPZ 260500
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1000 PM MST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MST THU DEC 25 2025
- WARM AND DRY AGAIN FRIDAY.
- A FETCH OF SOUTHWEST MOISTURE, AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
BRING SLIGHT COOLING, MORE CLOUDS, AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND, FAVORING WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS.
- A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE BORDERLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST THU DEC 25 2025
THE VERY LONG DURATION OF FLAT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HAS
BEEN BROKEN BY YESTERDAYS TROUGH PASSAGE; AND WON'T BE RETURNING
FOR A WHILE, AS SEVERAL MORE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. FOR TOMORROW, WE CONTINUE
WITH THE CHRISTMAS DAY PATTERN OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST. FRIDAY
WILL BE A WARM FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, BUT THE
APPROACHING TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TAPPING
INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL
STREAM HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION, WITH MINOR RIPPLES IN
THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A REPEAT SCENARIO, OF WHAT WE SAW
CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY, AND ADVANCING EAST INTO CENTRAL ZONES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THIS A RAIN
EVENT, WITH LOW IMPACT LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THAT SEE IT.
SUNDAY, AND MONDAY, A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
DIVE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA, INTO THE ROCKIES AND UPPER PLAINS
STATES. FOR THE MOST PART WE ONLY GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN ONE, BUT WHAT THEY DO THAT WILL IMPACT US, IS PUSH A HUGE
AND SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S.,
INCLUDING OUR REGION. WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT, ON N AND NE BREEZY WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS
THE BIG QUESTION, WITH THE SECOND UNCERTAINTY BEING THE DEGREE OF
COOLING RESULTING IN THE LEVEL OF SNOW VS RAIN. AS IT LOOKS NOW,
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE OVER OUR SE
ZONES, INCLUDING S OTERO, HUDSPETH, AND EL PASO COUNTIES, WITH
SOME SPILL OVER INTO DONA ANA, AND LUNA COUNTIES. THE COOLEST AIR
WILL BE OVER THESE SAME AREAS, ESPECIALLY OVER HUDSEPTH CO. AS FOR
NOW WE ARE SEEING A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW MIXES OVER THESE
AREAS, ALL THE WAY DOWN TO DESERT FLOOR ELEVATIONS FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, BUT STILL
IMPACTFUL, AT 1" AND BELOW, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER LOWLAND AREAS
SEEING AS MUCH AS 2". WE WILL HAVE TO CHECK WITH LATER MODEL RUNS,
BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF THE BETTER MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE
ROTATING N AND W OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR TUE PRECIPITATION.
FINALLY, WE SEE YET ANOTHER, WARMER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORK IN
FROM THE WEST TO END THE WEEK, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS DO
SUGGEST MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THESE DAYS TO START THE NEW
YEAR ON A SPORADICALLY WET NOTE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES VARIABLE BETWEEN SKC TO FEW-SCT180-250. FEW TO NO
CIGS, AND ALL OF THOSE WELL ABOVE 200K. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY
OR OBSTRUCTIONS EXPECTED. WINDS SLACKENING THROUGH THE EVENING,
BECOMING DRAINAGE (NW TO N) AND LIGHT (AOB7KTS). LIGHTER WINDS
TOMORROW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST THU DEC 25 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY, TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN
WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. LIGHT TO MODESTLY BREEZY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE W-SW. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER FAIR SKIES. WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SAT (10-15 MPH FROM
W-SW AT 20-FEET) AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION,
RESULTING IN BETTER MIXING AND VENTILATION. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE
ALSO FORECAST FOR SAT. SUN WILL BE SIMILAR FOR WINDS WITH A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND COOLER TEMPS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NM.
MUCH COOLER FOR MON BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AS THE WINDS SHIFT
N-NE THAT MORNING. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP ON MON,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
IN THE MTNS.
MIN RHS WILL BE 25-45% THROUGH SAT, 35-55% ABOVE 7500FT. VENT
RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGH FRI, GOOD TO
VERY GOOD IN THE MTNS; GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 49 76 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 74 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 39 71 43 67 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 42 72 47 69 / 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 38 52 39 47 / 0 0 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 43 71 46 67 / 0 0 10 20
SILVER CITY 42 66 43 57 / 0 10 30 60
DEMING 42 74 46 69 / 0 10 10 30
LORDSBURG 41 71 45 64 / 0 10 30 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 74 53 71 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 40 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 48 79 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 69 50 66 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 46 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 45 73 48 70 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 74 54 70 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 42 72 46 68 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 37 75 41 70 / 0 0 10 20
COLUMBUS 46 74 49 70 / 0 10 10 20
OROGRANDE 44 72 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 67 42 62 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 38 63 39 59 / 0 0 10 10
TIMBERON 36 62 38 57 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 33 65 36 59 / 0 0 10 30
HILLSBORO 42 71 46 65 / 0 0 10 30
SPACEPORT 34 71 38 67 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 37 65 39 56 / 0 10 30 60
HURLEY 37 68 39 61 / 0 10 20 50
CLIFF 34 71 36 62 / 0 10 30 60
MULE CREEK 38 66 41 57 / 0 10 30 70
FAYWOOD 43 68 46 61 / 0 0 20 40
ANIMAS 43 74 47 67 / 0 10 30 40
HACHITA 41 73 44 66 / 0 10 20 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 76 46 67 / 0 10 20 30
CLOVERDALE 48 68 48 59 / 0 10 30 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page