777
FXUS64 KEPZ 091730
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1130 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH BLOWING DUST LIKELY.
- FIRE CONDITIONS BECOMING AT LEAST ELEVATED SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
A LITTLE BIT EACH SPRING WEATHER ELEMENT FOR THE BORDERLAND OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAYBE
JUST A FEW SHOWERS UP NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. FOR
FRIDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA AND THE
AREA WILL COME UNDER A FAIRLY DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING UP
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GO ALONG WITH IT.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE EAST AND BY MID
AFTERNOON, SHOULD SEE SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT. NBM HAD 60-80 POPS
FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN AREAS, BUT THIS LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE
AND TAPERED DOWN TO 40-60%. NOT MUCH SHEAR SO DO NOT SEE A SEVERE
THREAT. FURTHER WEST, NOT MUCH INSTABILITY, BUT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING UP AND SOME CAMS ARE DEVELOPING SOME
PRECIP AT LEAST IN THE GILA REGION. DEW POINTS OUT WEST WILL NOT
GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 30S AND THINK A LOT OF THIS WILL BE VIRGA
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRY LIGHTNING. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO NE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
FOR SAT, UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TURNS SW OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH THE
DAY, SO DOES THE SURFACE. BY 18Z, GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT
THE SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE UP TO THE RIO GRANDE WHICH SHOULD BE
THE EXTENT TO ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS EARLY ON BUT ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FURTHER EAST INTO OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW PUSH BUT BY 00Z, ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. LINGERING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WARMING SOME AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
SUN/MON WILL CONTINUE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE TYPICAL WINDY
SPRING DAYS AREAWIDE. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE WINDS PICKING UP INTO
THE 15-30MPH RANGE. MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH 20-35MPH
FOR MOST OF THE REGION AND LIKELY SOME BLOWING DUST GIVEN THE GOOD
TRAJECTORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
TUE/WED WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE SOMETIME TUE.
A TIMING CLOSER TO THE EC WILL BRING WINDIER CONDITIONS, BUT THE
QUICKER GFS WOULD LEAD TO WINDS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT200-250 WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FROM THE BLACKS RANGE INTO THE SACS. WINDS VARIABLE AOB 12KTS AND
BECOMING S TO SE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
MORE TYPICAL SPRINGTIME WEATHER COMING INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
RIVER, FOR FRIDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND COULD INCLUDE SOME DRY LIGHTNING
IN THE GILA REGION. SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK IN
FROM W TO E AND BRING A RETURN TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL START TO PICK UP OUT WEST SAT BUT WILL BE STRONGER FOR
SUN/MON. THESE WILL BE THE DAYS WHEN SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. SUN WILL SEE WINDS OF 15-30MPH WITH 20-35MPH
FOR MON. RH'S WILL BE IN THE 8-15% RANGE WITH RFTI'S AROUND 3-4.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT RH'S WILL REMAIN BELOW 15%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 86 59 84 / 0 50 60 20
SIERRA BLANCA 56 80 56 78 / 10 50 70 40
LAS CRUCES 53 81 52 80 / 0 40 50 20
ALAMOGORDO 52 83 52 79 / 0 60 70 40
CLOUDCROFT 42 60 39 56 / 10 70 80 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 81 54 80 / 10 40 50 20
SILVER CITY 51 73 47 72 / 0 30 30 20
DEMING 50 83 51 81 / 0 30 30 10
LORDSBURG 48 80 49 78 / 0 10 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 84 60 82 / 0 40 50 20
DELL CITY 50 84 54 81 / 0 50 60 50
FORT HANCOCK 56 89 57 84 / 10 60 70 20
LOMA LINDA 55 78 54 76 / 0 50 60 30
FABENS 56 87 57 85 / 0 50 60 20
SANTA TERESA 54 83 55 81 / 10 40 50 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 83 57 81 / 0 50 60 20
JORNADA RANGE 45 82 49 81 / 0 50 60 20
HATCH 53 84 52 84 / 0 40 50 20
COLUMBUS 54 84 54 83 / 10 30 30 10
OROGRANDE 52 83 53 79 / 0 50 60 30
MAYHILL 45 72 44 69 / 10 70 80 60
MESCALERO 42 71 41 67 / 10 70 80 60
TIMBERON 40 69 43 65 / 10 70 70 50
WINSTON 38 72 41 71 / 10 30 30 20
HILLSBORO 54 78 50 78 / 0 30 40 20
SPACEPORT 50 81 48 80 / 10 50 60 20
LAKE ROBERTS 32 73 42 72 / 0 30 30 20
HURLEY 49 77 47 76 / 0 30 30 10
CLIFF 42 80 45 78 / 0 20 20 10
MULE CREEK 35 76 44 74 / 0 20 10 10
FAYWOOD 49 76 49 75 / 0 30 40 20
ANIMAS 48 81 50 80 / 0 20 20 10
HACHITA 51 80 49 80 / 0 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 52 81 51 80 / 0 20 20 10
CLOVERDALE 54 76 52 74 / 0 10 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page