554
FXUS64 KEPZ 022326
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
526 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND QUIETER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- SOME MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
DRY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS WEAK ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE QUIET AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. A SUB-1000MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NE CO, WITH A
BAGGY/UNORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NM WILL LEAD TO LOW-END
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. WINDS WILL BE W/SW AT 7-15 MPH WITH GUST
POTENTIAL UP TO 30 MPH. 06Z REFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PAINTS MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE (50-90 PERCENT CHANCE) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30
MPH FOR THE BLACK RANGE AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS, ALONG WITH SAN
ANDREAS RANGE AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. WINDS GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH LOOK
LIKELY ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. OTHERWISE, ENJOY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR FRIDAY, THE FINAL LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN, WITH WARM AFTER TEMPERATURES
AND LOW-END BREEZY WINDS (TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOBE OF ENERGY WILL PUSH A
QUASI PACIFIC/SIDE DOOR FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW-
END BREEZY, BUT NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY,
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER, BECOMING PREDOMINATELY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. A EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL THEN ADVECT
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN FROM THE EAST. ECMWF/GFS/LREF AND THEIR
RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES SHOW PW VALUES 150-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL
(FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) OVERLAYING THE AREA STARTING ON
SATURDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT. THAT SAID, SLIGHT (20-40%)
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY, BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SIDEDOOR FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BENEATH SCT-BKN250. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY (UP TO 25 KNOTS) AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS (03Z) BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. DIRECTION WILL LARGELY BE FROM THE WEST
(240-270) THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME VARIABILITY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME, PROMOTING NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES AND LOW-END BREEZY WINDS. MIN RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HOVER AROUND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS
AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. WITH 15-25 PERCENT RH VALUES FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000-7500 FEET. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE BETWEEN 7-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH, AREAS ALONG RIDGELINES AND THE ADJACENT
WEST SLOPES IN SIERRA/OTERO COUNTIES COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
FOR FRIDAY, VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW-END BREEZY WITH MIN RH
VALUES TRENDING A FEW PERCENTAGES DOWN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY ALL AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 15% FOR MIN RH, WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
A QUASI PACIFIC/SIDE DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN THIS WEEKEND. NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RH VALUES ON SATURDAY, WITH VALUES
INCREASING TO 20-40 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
ENTER THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS WELL, THESE SLIGHT/LOW-END
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 85 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 80 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 49 80 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 80 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 58 32 52 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 79 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 72 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 48 82 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 78 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 83 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 85 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 88 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 77 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 86 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 82 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 83 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 82 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 85 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 83 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 80 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 73 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 41 69 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 43 68 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 73 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 80 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 80 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 40 72 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 75 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 41 78 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 74 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 76 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 46 80 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 79 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 80 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 75 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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