232
FXUS64 KEPZ 220434
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
934 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 924 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK, LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID SEVENTIES.
- INCREASING CLOUDS MIDWEEK WITH LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 924 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE GULF STATES BY MIDWEEK, TURNING OUR WINDS ALOFT TO SW-
ERLY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH NEAR-
RECORD, FALL-LIKE TEMPS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MIDWEEK FORECAST FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST ON TUE, CREATING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE DESERT SW THROUGH MIDWEEK. MOST OF THE
IMPACTS WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERY
ACTIVITY IS MODELED TO REACH WESTERN AREAS ON WED ASSOCIATED WITH A
PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE GILA REGION IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PRECIP WED-THU (30-50% CHANCE WED NIGHT), WHICH WOULD BE LIGHT AND
ALL RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING AOA 11KFT. ELSEWHERE, RAIN CHANCES
ARE VERY LOW (ABOUT 10% OR LESS).
TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW OVERHEAD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR US AFTER
THU. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS A BIT RAINY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE
WITH MODESTLY BREEZY WINDS (10-20 MPH) AS AN IMPULSE COMES ACROSS.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO WATCH OUT FOR WOULD MOVE IN NEXT WEEKEND
FROM THE PACIFIC, BUT MODELS HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS IT
APPROACHES (DOES IT LINGER TO THE WEST OR PROGRESS EASTWARD?).
TEMPERATURES STAY AT RECORD WARM LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS INTO THE 70S. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS
SIGNALED NEXT WEEKEND AS WE WRAP UP 2025, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 924 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY SKC
EXPECTED. WINDS STAY AOB 6KTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD
DECEMBER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE DECEMBER. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. POOR VENTILATION AND MIN RH 15-25% TODAY AND MONDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT (15-30%) CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
GNF MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE AND BETTER RH
RECOVERIES AFTER WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT
IN GOOD VENTILATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 43 75 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 39 72 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 40 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 57 37 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 71 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 38 75 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 38 74 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 48 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 76 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 43 80 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 71 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 42 76 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 41 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 47 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 38 73 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 36 75 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 74 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 42 72 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 42 72 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 38 68 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 37 66 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 69 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 72 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 36 71 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 71 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 72 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 36 76 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 37 73 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 71 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 38 76 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 38 74 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 76 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 74 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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