119
FXUS64 KEPZ 210441
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY, WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ABOVE 100 DEGREES. THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AREA WIDE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN BY MID WEEK,
MOSTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
BROAD, ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER SONORA/GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, LEADING TO A STAGNANT SURFACE HIGH OVER ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND. PREVAILING WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW HAS SCOURED OUT
MOISTURE ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO FALL TO 0.6-0.8". 00Z KEPZ
SOUNDING CONFIRMS THIS DRY-OUT. NO RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THIS.
MAIN HEADLINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE HEAT.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, CENTERING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY-TUESDAY. LOWLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OR SURPASS 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON AND
LOOKS TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. THE HOTTEST DAYS
WILL BE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY REACHING
104-108 DEGREES. WHILE THIS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE, IT'S STILL
IMPACTFUL HEAT. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR EL PASO, AND
PERHAPS MUCH OF THE I-10/I-25 CORRIDORS.
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MIDWEEK WILL FLATTEN
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND WEAKEN IT SOMEWHAT AFTER NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO "COOL" A FEW DEGREES, THOUGH
STILL LIKELY ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR EL PASO AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. SLIGHT INCREASES IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY, THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN
(BLACK RANGE, SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS), WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
REMAINING DRY AND HOT INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF JUNE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES SKC
OVERNIGHT, WITH SURFACE WINDS 260-320 AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS 250-280 AT 15G25KT
ACROSS S NM. KELP WILL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS MID-AFTERNOON, WITH
UNLIMITED VISIBILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
HEAT AND A DRY AIRMASS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS COMING WEEK FOR
FIRE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND ERCS ARE FORECAST TO PASS 90TH PERCENTILE TODAY AND TOMORROW
MOST AREAS (SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS REACHING THAT LEVEL BY MID
WEEK). THUS, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED, VERY LOW
RHS WILL KEEP FIRE CONDITIONS ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS...12-17% TODAY, DECREASING TO 5-10% SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GILA/BLACK RANGE...12-2-% TODAY, DECREASING TO
7-15% SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS...15-25%
TODAY, DECREASING TO 10-15% SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND BACK TO
15-25% WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 54 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 102 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 102 67 105 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 99 64 100 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 102 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 103 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 105 73 106 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 96 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 104 71 106 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 101 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 102 67 102 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 67 104 66 106 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 103 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 101 67 100 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 90 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 58 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 55 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 58 93 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 65 102 63 102 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 94 54 97 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 96 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 98 60 101 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 59 94 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 65 95 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 100 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 100 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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