464
FXUS64 KEPZ 280509
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1109 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
- QUIETER WEATHER, BUT WITH CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED, BUT BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PATTERN CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH A PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER, A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP MAY TRY TO ARRIVE WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
THIN HIGH CLOUDS STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND THE OTERO
MESA, AND WILL MORE OR LESS HOVER IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW, WITH SUNNIER SKIES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO'S SOUTHERN
BORDER.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OVERNIGHT,
WITH WINDS ALOFT DIMINISHING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 45 KNOTS WILL STILL RESULT IN WEAK LEE
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RISING
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT, WE WON'T MIX
DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER GUSTS WE SAW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY, OR LIKE WE BRIEFLY SAW IN THE SOUTHERN NM LOWLANDS.
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE LATE IN THE
WEEK, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY MORNING, AND A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL PULL IN A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS, WITH SHOWER
CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO,
PROVIDING INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
LATER THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE LOWLANDS, AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN OPEN TROUGH.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX AFTER THAT...WITH THE BACKDOOR
FRONT POTENTIALLY GETTING A SECOND PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST, AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FOR
A BAND OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT
WHERE EXACTLY THAT SETS UP IS STILL A BIT SKETCHY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS
SCENARIO (THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING), ESPECIALLY WITH MODELS
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM, HOPEFULLY
KEEPING DRY SLOTTING AT BAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND JUST SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL WINDS ENHANCED, AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT ELP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW AWW CRITERIA, AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z. WEAK
LLWS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT THROUGH THAT TIME, WITH ABOUT 35 KNOT
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 1200 FEET AGL.
EXPECT ANOTHER TYPICAL BREEZY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY, WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE, HIGHEST IN SOUTHERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TODAY AND
TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL DROP TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BOTH
TODAY AND TUESDAY THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AREAWIDE. PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY/BORDERLINE RED
FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THAT SAID, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NMZ113. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER, MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
COMING MORE AND MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM'S
EVOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 83 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 83 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 60 49 60 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 45 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 41 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 84 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 56 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 78 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 58 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 83 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 47 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 73 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 46 70 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 69 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 75 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 48 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 44 83 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 27 74 32 74 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 40 77 47 77 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 34 80 41 79 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 29 75 35 75 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 46 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 44 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 47 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 42 78 49 76 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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