413
FXUS64 KEPZ 010428
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1028 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 930 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- RAIN CHANCES AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DIMINISH STARTING TOMORROW
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH STORMS FAVORING THE AREA MOUNTAINS
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE OVER TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY TOMORROW. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLE DECREASE
IN STORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON LIMITING STORMS GENERALLY TO
THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL NM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR, A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY HINDER STORM COVERAGE IF CLOUD COVER DOES STICK AROUND.
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ELONGATED
AND AMPLIFIED EXTENDING FROM THE EPZ AREA ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. DURING THIS TIME, MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES LACKLUSTER WITH PWS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO
STORMS, MAYBE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. THIS WEEKEND
COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL,
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER STORM COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE AREA MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW BUT ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THERE WILL BE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED IN FROM THE EAST. STORM CHANCES WILL
BE MEDIUM-HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, PROGRESSING NORTH TO SOUTH.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
THE FRONT MOVES INTO MEXICO FROM THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
LOWERING MOISTURE LEVELS AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THU, FAVORING
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE E-SE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT THROUGH MON NIGHT, THEN GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
MIN RHS WILL BE 30-45% THROUGH MON, THEN 20-35%; 40-70% IN THE
SACS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN 30-50%. VENT RATES RANGE FROM POOR TO
GOOD TODAY, THEN FAIR TO VERY GOOD THROUGH TUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 91 70 92 / 40 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 84 59 85 / 40 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 65 86 64 88 / 40 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 88 64 88 / 30 30 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 46 65 46 67 / 40 30 20 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 86 65 87 / 50 30 20 10
SILVER CITY 59 81 59 82 / 60 40 40 20
DEMING 67 89 65 90 / 50 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 66 87 67 88 / 50 30 30 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 88 69 88 / 40 20 10 0
DELL CITY 63 88 62 90 / 40 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 69 89 67 91 / 40 30 10 10
LOMA LINDA 62 81 62 82 / 30 20 10 10
FABENS 68 89 66 90 / 40 20 10 0
SANTA TERESA 67 87 66 88 / 40 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 89 67 88 / 30 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 65 87 64 87 / 40 20 20 10
HATCH 66 89 65 90 / 50 20 10 10
COLUMBUS 68 88 65 88 / 50 20 10 0
OROGRANDE 64 86 62 87 / 30 20 10 0
MAYHILL 52 75 51 77 / 40 30 10 20
MESCALERO 51 77 51 78 / 40 30 20 30
TIMBERON 50 74 50 75 / 30 30 10 20
WINSTON 54 79 53 80 / 60 30 30 20
HILLSBORO 61 86 60 86 / 60 30 30 10
SPACEPORT 64 86 63 86 / 50 20 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 55 82 54 82 / 60 40 40 30
HURLEY 62 83 60 84 / 60 30 30 10
CLIFF 63 88 62 88 / 60 40 30 20
MULE CREEK 60 85 59 85 / 50 40 30 20
FAYWOOD 62 82 61 82 / 60 30 30 10
ANIMAS 66 88 65 88 / 50 20 20 10
HACHITA 65 86 64 86 / 50 20 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 84 62 85 / 50 30 20 10
CLOVERDALE 62 81 62 81 / 40 40 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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