241
FXUS64 KEPZ 301153
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
453 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY EAST WINDS AND COOLER AIR MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 944 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKING VERY SUBDUED, EVEN MORE THAN LAST NIGHT AT
THIS TIME, AS OUR COUPLE OF SHOTS AT PRECIP LOOK EVEN SLIMMER NOW.
SUB-TROPICAL JET WITH PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AS UPPER TROUGH/NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASE OVER
THE AREA. ALL THIS DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST. CIRRUS OVERCAST SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES BECOMING STATIC NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND
WE WILL BECOME UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHWEST INFLUENCE ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOMEWHAT NOTICEABLE TROUGH/UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF BRINGS ACROSS A MUCH
WEAKER FEATURE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SLIM CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER
HUDSPETH OR EVEN EL PASO COUNTIES, BUT GRIDS DO NOT CURRENTLY
REFLECT THIS. PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD ALSO BE GOOD FOR A 5 TO 7
DEGREE WARMUP, WITH THE FIRST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE JAN
22.
OUR OTHER SHOT AT PRECIP FROM EARLIER MODELS WAS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MODELS ARE
NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH MUCH MORE NEUTRAL-ORIENTED RATHER THAN
POSITIVELY TILTED. THUS IT LOOKS MORE PROGRESSIVE; JUST BRUSHING
OUR EASTERN CWA, AS A REX-BLOCK RIDGE FORMS OVER THE WEST COAST.
TROUGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO TURN SURFACE WINDS EASTERLY AND BRING
IN SOME COOLER AIR (TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL), BUT NOT NEAR AS MUCH
COLD ADVECTION AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS MODEL RUNS HAD
SHOWN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY SKC AS
CIRRUS CLEARS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS AOB 8KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME VARIABILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND; NO
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS IS MODELED INTO NEXT WEEK. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS (10-15 MPH) FOR
MONDAY WITH BETTER VENTILATION AND TRANSPORT FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST UNDER FAIR SKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SAT, WARMING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-45% THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR
FWZ110 WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE 12-25%. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE
MOSTLY POOR THROUGH SUN, ALTHOUGH FWZ110 WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 33 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 28 54 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 29 57 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 26 55 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 20 42 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 59 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 57 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 30 60 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 35 59 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 21 48 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 30 62 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 32 52 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 29 61 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 29 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 33 58 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 23 58 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 26 61 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 32 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 24 55 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 22 55 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 21 51 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 24 48 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 23 58 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 31 59 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 23 58 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 60 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 28 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 64 24 67 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 19 61 20 64 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 32 56 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 28 61 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 27 59 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 29 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 35 57 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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