180
FXUS64 KEPZ 082354
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
554 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2022
..UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z
WITH SOME ISOL TSRA LINGERING BEYOND 06Z. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL
BE DUE TO LOW CIG, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35-45KTS, AND REDUCED
VSBY IN RA+ AND POSSIBLY LOCAL BD. TEMPORARY MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STORM ACTIVITY. PREVAILING WEATHER WILL BE
SKIES FEW-SCT090 SCT-BKN150, WITH SFC WINDS 030-090 AT 08-12KT.
SYNOPSIS
MONSOONAL PATTERN WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND SMALL
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, 90S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AREA
MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
AS EXPECTED, MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 1.2", WHICH HAS ALSO
PUSHED CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO HINDER STORM ORGANIZATION, SO ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY
AND SHORT-LIVED AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON SEASON. EXPECT AN
ACTIVE EVENING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WITH PLENTIFUL MOUNTAIN (40-
60% COVERAGE) AND SCATTERED LOWLAND (25-40% COVERAGE) THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN (AT LEAST EARLY ON) WILL DEFINITELY FAVOR
TO WEST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND US-54 CORRIDOR IN
OTERO COUNTY WITH OUTFLOW SPREADING AREA WIDE INTO THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIXED TO OUR NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY WITH A STEADY EAST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. SLOW WESTWARD STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
LOWLAND HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 90'S TODAY, A BIT COOLER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST. VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.
MODELS TEND TO FAVOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO FOR STORM CHANCES
TOMORROW, WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT CLOSER TO THE
PRIMARY MONSOONAL PLUME INTO ARIZONA. THUS, FOCUSED POPS WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TOMORROW. SIMILAR HAZARDS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OF
THE BORDERLAND THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW
WILL NOT ONLY REMAIN ALOFT, BUT ALSO THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. THIS WILL KEEP THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS AREA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STAGNANT AS WELL, WITH VALUES LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS AND BLACK RANGE.
DELVING INTO THE DETAILS A LITTLE MORE, WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOOKS RELATIVELY SIMILAR, WITH WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY,
DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 OR IN THE 50S, AND NEAR NORMAL PW. AS A RESULT,
TYPICAL MONSOONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED STORMS
OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED ACROSS MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THOSE LUCKY LOWLAND AREAS THAT SEE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS, THEN MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT, ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL (MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW
SHEAR SUGGESTS SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SUB SEVERE WINDS, BUT IF
LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR WERE TO DEVELOP, MORE MARGINAL
HAIL/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE).
BY THE WEEKEND, THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THAT IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST, AT LEAST SO IT SEEMS AT THIS TIME, AND
HENCE THE BEST CHANCES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED (~10-15%) LOWLAND
ACTIVITY MOST LOCATIONS HOWEVER AS NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN. TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH THE TYPICAL MONSOONAL
THREATS (MRGN WINDS, MRGN HAIL, AND FLOODING) WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME, WITH
SCATTERED MTN STORMS AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW FIRE DANGER THIS WEEK AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR WETTING RAINS
CONTINUE. TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
RAPID DOWNSTREAM RISES IN DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DIP TO 30-40% MIDDAY, FOLLOWED BY EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. SMOKE VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TRANSPORT MAINLY TO THE W/NW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 74 97 / 50 40 40 20
SIERRA BLANCA 68 91 69 91 / 50 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 69 95 70 95 / 50 50 50 30
ALAMOGORDO 67 91 68 92 / 40 40 30 40
CLOUDCROFT 49 68 50 67 / 40 70 40 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 91 69 92 / 40 50 50 40
SILVER CITY 62 83 63 85 / 60 70 70 50
DEMING 68 93 69 94 / 60 60 60 20
LORDSBURG 68 91 67 92 / 60 60 60 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 96 74 96 / 50 40 40 20
DELL CITY 69 95 69 94 / 20 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 71 97 71 97 / 50 30 30 20
LOMA LINDA 67 88 67 89 / 50 30 30 30
FABENS 71 95 72 95 / 50 30 30 20
SANTA TERESA 70 93 71 94 / 50 40 40 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 72 93 72 94 / 50 40 40 30
JORNADA RANGE 69 92 69 92 / 50 50 50 30
HATCH 69 93 69 94 / 50 50 50 30
COLUMBUS 70 93 69 94 / 60 50 50 10
OROGRANDE 69 93 70 93 / 40 30 30 40
MAYHILL 55 80 55 79 / 40 60 30 60
MESCALERO 54 78 55 78 / 40 70 40 70
TIMBERON 54 78 55 78 / 40 60 40 60
WINSTON 61 83 61 84 / 40 70 60 60
HILLSBORO 65 90 66 90 / 50 60 50 40
SPACEPORT 67 91 68 92 / 50 50 40 40
LAKE ROBERTS 57 82 58 82 / 60 80 60 60
HURLEY 65 88 65 89 / 60 60 60 40
CLIFF 61 91 61 92 / 50 70 60 50
MULE CREEK 62 86 61 87 / 50 80 60 60
FAYWOOD 65 88 66 89 / 60 60 60 40
ANIMAS 66 91 66 92 / 60 70 70 20
HACHITA 66 90 66 91 / 60 60 60 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 89 65 91 / 60 70 70 20
CLOVERDALE 62 85 61 87 / 70 70 70 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
30/35/14
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