016
FXUS64 KEPZ 220357
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
957 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT WEST AND NORTH, WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE EAST. FOCUS OF STORMS
WILL BE MORE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN
LOWLANDS.
- WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER, DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY
LIMITED TO TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
- LOWLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AFTER AN EXTENDED DURATION OF DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE
BORDERLAND, WE ARE MOVING INTO A TRANSITION TOWARD A DRIER REGIME
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST, SHOVING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE W AND N, AND BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NE AND E. AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW, WE SHOULD SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FOCUS OF FURTHER
STORM ACTIVITY OVER AREA HIGH MOUNTAINS AND THE N AND W LOWLANDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. PWAT HAS BEEN NEAR 1.5", AND IT IS
PROGED TO DROP TO NEAR 1.0", AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE SUPPOSED
TO FALL INTO THE 40S. BOTH OF THOSE LOWER NUMBERS ARE STILL
RESPECTIBLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A POP-UP STORM ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
CWFA, BUT THE CHANCES WILL DROP FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL FURTHER DROP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST OVER THE REGION, WITH
SUBSIDENT WARMING ALOFT, ADDING A CAP, SUPPRESSING INSTABILITY.
ALONG WITH THIS "DRYING TREND" WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED WARMING
TREND, WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING TOWARD THE TRIPLE DIGITS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
LATE WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH, IF THE GFS IS CORRECT, JOGS TO THE
NORTH, WHICH COULD ALLOW A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THE HIGH DOESN'T MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS IT DID A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO, TO START THIS WET PERIOD, SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MOISTURE REINTRODUCTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, AND STILL
FOCUSED OVER SW AND W NE, WITH AREAS TO THE EAST SOMEWHAT DRY
STILL. THE ECMWF MODEL STILL SHOWS A UPPER HIGH CONTROLLING THE
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE FORECAST
WARMER AND DRIER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH BRIEF AND ISOLATED MFVR IN VCTY OF
SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH 06-09Z. SKIES GENERALLY SCT050-100 AND
SCT-BKN150-180. TEMPO AND ISOL BKN070 OVC100 NEAR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WINDS GENERALLY 4-8KT FROM SE TO SW, BUT TRENDING TO W AND
NW AFT 06Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO SE AND S TOMORROW MORNING
AFT 16-17Z IN THE 4-8KT RANGE. AGAIN TOMORROW, ISO TO SCT
SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED, BUT WITH LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AROUND THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT
TAF SITES IS LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AFTER TODAY, WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS INCREASE AND MINIMUM RH VALUES DECREASE. BY
FRIDAY, MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL
HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS, WITH SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WITH THE MOISTURE, WE WILL
MAINTAIN DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT AFTER TODAY, CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SHARPLY AND MAINLY BE HELD TO MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES WILL
MAINLY BE GOOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 96 76 100 / 30 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 92 66 94 / 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 66 93 69 97 / 20 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 94 72 98 / 20 20 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 71 52 75 / 20 50 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 92 72 97 / 20 10 10 0
SILVER CITY 60 84 64 88 / 40 30 10 0
DEMING 65 95 69 98 / 30 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 90 69 95 / 40 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 94 76 99 / 30 10 10 0
DELL CITY 70 97 71 99 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 98 74 100 / 20 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 66 88 68 91 / 20 10 0 0
FABENS 71 96 73 99 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 69 93 72 97 / 20 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 94 76 98 / 30 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 93 72 97 / 20 10 10 0
HATCH 68 96 71 100 / 20 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 70 94 73 98 / 20 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 93 70 97 / 20 10 10 0
MAYHILL 56 82 57 86 / 10 30 10 10
MESCALERO 55 81 56 86 / 20 50 20 10
TIMBERON 54 80 56 83 / 10 10 10 0
WINSTON 58 83 60 87 / 30 50 10 10
HILLSBORO 64 90 67 94 / 30 20 10 0
SPACEPORT 66 93 69 97 / 20 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 56 85 59 90 / 40 40 10 0
HURLEY 61 88 64 92 / 40 20 10 0
CLIFF 63 90 65 95 / 50 40 10 0
MULE CREEK 61 85 63 91 / 70 30 10 0
FAYWOOD 63 87 66 91 / 40 20 10 0
ANIMAS 65 90 68 94 / 40 10 20 0
HACHITA 63 90 67 94 / 30 0 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 89 68 94 / 40 10 20 0
CLOVERDALE 62 85 65 89 / 50 20 30 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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