621
FXUS64 KEPZ 232346
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
546 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL RANGE
UPPER 90S TO 105, WHICH WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORDS.
- VERY LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR TODAY
AND MONDAY. DRY ELSEWHERE.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
ANOTHER MULTI-DAY BREAK IN THE MONSOON IS UNDERWAY. 18Z RAOBS
PLACE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RIGHT IN BETWEEN ABQ AND EPZ, WITH
BOTH RECORDING 500MB HEIGHTS OF 5980M. ADDITIONAL HORRID STATS
FROM EPZ INCLUDE A TEMPERATURE OF -4C AT 500MB (IN THE MIDDLE OF
A SHARP INVERSION, AND A PWAT OF 0.84 INCHES.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE
MID-30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, INCLUDING LRU, ALM, AND DNA.
HRRR STILL HOLDS OUT HOPE FOR A FEW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WITH MAYBE SOME THUNDER OVER THE GILA OR SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
AND RADAR SHOWS A FEW MINIMAL BLIPS WEST OF THE BLACK RANGE. BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL TOP OUT AROUND 101-103 AT ELP, WITH
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WE'LL PEAK ON
TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AROUND 104-106.
RECORD HIGHS FOR ELP THE NEXT FEW DAYS RISE SLOWLY WITH THE
FORECAST, BUT ARE STILL WITHIN RANGE.
SUN 23 - 103 (2024) // FCST 102
MON 24 - 102 (1993) // FCST 102
TUE 25 - 104 (2002) // FCST 104
WED 26 - 106 (2019) // FCST 103
THU 27 - 103 (2019) // FCST 102
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SLOWLY RETRACING ITS STEPS, THEN SETTLING CLOSER TO THE
AZ/NM BORDER BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP, BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND SOME RECYCLED
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, INCREASING THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER
UNTIL THURSDAY, SO LOWLAND PRECIP CHANCES WILL LAG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MONTH. OUR RECORD FOR NUMBER OF DAYS IN AUGUST WITH HIGHS
100+ AT EL PASO CURRENTLY SITS AT 20 (SET IN 2020). WE HAVE A
SHOT AT BEATING THIS RECORD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME OFF AND ON LOW END GUSTY WINDS, BUT THOSE WIND GUSTS WILL
DROP OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WE WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. OUR
CEILINGS ARE UNLIMITED THIS EVENING AND THOSE CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GILA
AND SACRAMENTOS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP JUST BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE
LOWLANDS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS, WHILE THE FORESTED HIGH
ELEVATIONS HOLD ONTO 15 TO 25%. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER TICK HIGHER THURSDAY, AS THE
UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS WEST OF THE AREA AGAIN, OPENING US UP TO WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 102 75 104 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 70 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 101 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 60 78 64 79 / 10 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 94 65 96 / 0 10 0 0
DEMING 70 102 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 103 77 105 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 64 102 68 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 106 73 108 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 103 74 107 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 72 101 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 103 76 105 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 68 104 71 106 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 70 102 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 57 89 59 90 / 10 10 0 20
TIMBERON 55 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 61 91 65 93 / 0 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 70 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 52 92 55 93 / 10 20 10 10
HURLEY 65 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 64 101 67 103 / 10 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 58 97 60 99 / 10 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 68 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 68 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 68 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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