981
FXUS64 KEPZ 050417
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1017 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH SATURDAY
LIMITED MOSTLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- CONTINUED RISKS FOR FLOODING FROM STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
- DRIER AND WARMER ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MANY LOWLAND
AREAS SEEING THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHEAST PULLING UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH IT. MODELS SHOW THE LOW BETWEEN EL PASO AND THE BIG BEND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MCV, WHICH WAS
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY CAUSED SOME SUBSIDENCE
TO ITS LEE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WELL
OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW THE MAIN DRIVER.
MODELS SHOWING MODEST CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND PWS OF .75 TO
1.00 INCH WELL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY, WITH AREAS
FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES. DCAPES AS
HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40-50 DEGREES POINT
TOWARDS WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT, BUT FLOODING AND HAIL WILL
ALSO LIKELY BE PRESENT.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LESS STORM ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THIS IS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE EXITING UPPER LOW. LOW LEVEL WARMTH INCREASES AND 850 MB TEMPS
SUPPORT LOWLAND TRIPLE DIGITS, IF NOT BY SUNDAY, THEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING
ONSHORE, DISPLACING THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER EAST. THOUGH BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND MOVING IT TO OUR AREA, THE GFS DIGS THE PACIFIC LOW
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH (TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY) AND HENCE
MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWS. THUS, GFS WEDNESDAY SHOWS LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE ECMWF WEDNESDAY JUST RATES A SLIGHT CHANCE.
THE TABLES FLIP THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY GFS LOW PASSES BY,
BRINGING IN DRIER WEST FLOW. THE ECMWF ON THURSDAY STILL SHOWS
SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP SINCE THE UPPER WINDS REMAIN MORE
SOUTHERLY. HENCE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 957 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
SCT080 SCT-BKN150 BKN250. ISOLATED BKN060CB 5-7SM -TSRA, MOSTLY OVER
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES, UNTIL AROUND 07Z. DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z...SCATTERED BKN070CB 5SM TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, AND SPREADING TO THE LOWLANDS AFTER 21Z. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE MAINLY SOUTH 6-10 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASING TO SOUTH 10-15
KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH LINGER OVER THE REGION. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING LOOK LIKE A MORE DOWN DAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN FRIDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. SATURDAY
STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SACS. AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE WARMEST OF
THE YEAR WITH 100+ DEGREE HIGHS ON THE LOWLANDS. RH'S WILL BE
FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO MIDWEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 87 67 95 / 10 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 78 57 86 / 60 60 20 0
LAS CRUCES 59 86 60 94 / 0 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 84 58 91 / 10 50 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 46 64 46 69 / 10 70 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 89 64 94 / 10 10 20 0
SILVER CITY 55 83 56 86 / 20 40 10 0
DEMING 60 93 61 99 / 10 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 61 90 62 95 / 20 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 85 66 94 / 10 20 10 0
DELL CITY 60 83 59 89 / 20 40 30 10
FORT HANCOCK 64 87 63 95 / 60 50 30 0
LOMA LINDA 60 78 59 85 / 20 30 30 0
FABENS 63 87 63 96 / 30 30 20 0
SANTA TERESA 61 85 61 93 / 10 20 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 86 69 93 / 0 30 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 86 58 93 / 0 10 10 0
HATCH 60 91 61 97 / 0 10 20 0
COLUMBUS 64 92 65 97 / 10 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 58 83 57 90 / 10 40 20 0
MAYHILL 51 76 52 79 / 10 50 20 50
MESCALERO 50 75 50 79 / 0 70 30 20
TIMBERON 48 70 47 75 / 10 50 30 30
WINSTON 52 83 54 86 / 10 20 30 10
HILLSBORO 60 87 62 92 / 10 20 20 0
SPACEPORT 55 87 56 92 / 0 10 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 87 48 90 / 10 40 20 10
HURLEY 55 86 57 90 / 20 30 10 0
CLIFF 49 92 50 95 / 20 20 10 0
MULE CREEK 44 90 45 91 / 10 10 10 0
FAYWOOD 57 85 58 90 / 10 30 10 0
ANIMAS 60 93 61 95 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 59 91 61 94 / 10 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 90 61 93 / 10 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 58 86 58 88 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page