925
FXUS64 KEPZ 131221
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
621 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY,
WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS NEARING THE 100 DEGREE MARK
AGAIN. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK,
AND MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL IN THE LATTER HALF.
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND MONDAY,
WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED UPTICK BEGINNING TUESDAY.
- DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EACH DAY WILL BRING THE RISK OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER (250MB) REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO,
WHILE THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER CONTINUES DRIFTING EAST OVER
TEXAS. RECYCLED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE CWA.
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS EXTREMELY LIMITED DUE TO A
LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND SOMEWHAT LOWER LOW LEVEL (DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S) MOISTURE. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BEGIN A TRANSITION TO AN
EXTENDED VERY MOIST SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS. BY SUNDAY THE MID/UPPER
HIGHS ARE BOTH DRIFTING EAST OVER EAST TEXAS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS BUMP BACK UP MOSTLY INTO THE 50S, WHILE PWS
INCREASE BACK TO AROUND .9 INCHES NORTH TO 1.2 INCHES SOUTH. THUS
WE SHOULD SEE A TICK UP IN THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A MORE TYPICAL
PATTERN OF SCATTERED EARLY AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN STORMS, AND ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, CONTINUING THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. PWS
INCREASE TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN WELL INTO THE
50S. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ALL AREAS, WITH LOWER
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS RETRACING IT'S
PATH BACK WEST, OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS FRIDAY. PWS INCREASE TO 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT
EVER INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH FLASH FLOOD RISK
RISING TO MODERATE LEVELS. THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS,
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING UP IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES OPENS UP INTO A
BROAD, BUT WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. BY
FRIDAY THIS TROUGH PHASES IN WITH A POLAR JET TROUGH SWEEPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
A STRETCHED OUT DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING EAST-WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PWS CONTINUE AS HIGH AS
1.5 INCHES BOTH FRIDAY/SATURDAY, SO GOOD STORM COVERAGE WITH A
FLASH FLOOD RISK SHOULD CONTINUE.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE POLAR JET IS ABLE TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVER
NEW MEXICO, PUSHING THE DEFORMATION ZONE SOUTHWARD AND USHERING
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DWINDLE TO
ISOLATED WITH FLOOD RISK MOSTLY DONE. LOOKING AT THE GFS-360 AND
THE CFS LONG RANGE, THIS MAY USHER IN THE END OF THE MONSOON
SEASON BY THE EARLY 20S OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT ALSO OVER DESERT
MOUNTAIN RANGES AFTER ABOUT 20Z. PROBABILITY OF TSRA IS STILL TOO
LOW TO CARRY IN MOST TAFS, INCLUDING ELP, BUT DID MENTION VCTS AT
DMN BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
WE WILL START TO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TODAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE, THUNDERSTORM / WETTING RAIN CHANCES,
AND OVERALL HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL DROP STEADILY, AND RUN ABOUT 5
TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 97 71 94 / 30 20 30 30
SIERRA BLANCA 68 94 65 91 / 20 10 20 30
LAS CRUCES 68 95 66 91 / 20 30 50 40
ALAMOGORDO 71 96 68 92 / 20 20 50 30
CLOUDCROFT 53 74 51 69 / 20 40 50 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 93 67 89 / 30 60 60 50
SILVER CITY 63 87 61 84 / 30 60 40 80
DEMING 68 96 65 92 / 20 40 50 40
LORDSBURG 69 92 67 88 / 30 50 50 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 97 72 93 / 30 20 30 30
DELL CITY 70 99 69 95 / 10 10 30 20
FORT HANCOCK 75 102 73 98 / 30 10 30 30
LOMA LINDA 68 91 66 87 / 30 10 30 30
FABENS 72 99 71 95 / 30 10 30 20
SANTA TERESA 71 96 69 92 / 20 20 40 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 97 72 93 / 30 30 40 40
JORNADA RANGE 69 95 67 91 / 20 40 50 40
HATCH 70 98 68 94 / 20 40 50 50
COLUMBUS 72 96 70 92 / 30 40 50 40
OROGRANDE 69 94 67 90 / 30 20 40 30
MAYHILL 58 87 57 82 / 20 50 30 90
MESCALERO 57 86 56 81 / 20 30 40 70
TIMBERON 55 84 54 78 / 20 30 40 60
WINSTON 59 85 57 80 / 20 80 50 80
HILLSBORO 68 92 66 87 / 20 50 50 70
SPACEPORT 68 95 65 90 / 20 40 50 50
LAKE ROBERTS 56 86 56 82 / 30 60 50 90
HURLEY 64 89 62 86 / 30 50 50 70
CLIFF 63 93 63 89 / 30 50 50 60
MULE CREEK 58 88 58 85 / 30 50 50 40
FAYWOOD 66 89 64 86 / 30 40 50 60
ANIMAS 68 92 67 88 / 40 70 50 60
HACHITA 68 92 65 88 / 30 60 50 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 92 65 88 / 40 70 50 70
CLOVERDALE 64 86 63 82 / 40 60 50 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page