027
FXUS64 KEPZ 281122
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
522 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
- A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER TODAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.
- TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF OCTOBER WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BECOMING SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SW FOR WED, BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER HUDSPETH AND THE OTERO MESA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR EL PASO AND SW NEW MEXICO WITH LIGHT
S-SW WINDS.
MOISTURE LEVELS RISE FURTHER FOR THU AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH NW MEXICO. PWS CLIMB TOWARDS 1" DURING THE DAY, FOCUSING
OVER SE AREAS FOR RAIN CHANCES AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS OF
1-2" ARE LIKELY THROUGH THU NIGHT, FAVORING E OF THE US 54
CORRIDOR. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL IS 0.1-0.25". GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE LOW COMPARED
TO WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK WITH OUR SEVERE EVENT. THE FLOOD THREAT
LOWERS AS YOU GO WEST. THIS SYSTEM EXITS FRI AM WITH A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING BEHIND IT FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY TO WESTERN AREAS FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULDN'T BE AS HIGH LATE FRI WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN RATES EXPECTED.
HALLOWEEN DRIES OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE TRANSLATES OVER THE REGION.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR SAT WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND
LIGHT SW WINDS. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SW ON
SUN, BRINGING RECORD MOISTURE TO THE REGION. PWS ARE MODELED TO
REACH NEAR 1.2", WHICH IS 3-4 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL (0.45").
RAIN CHANCES AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AREAS AND
THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR TEXAS.
BREEZY W WINDS ALSO LOOK TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW SUN/MON WITH COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT. A QUIET, DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IS
MODELED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
THIS MORNING, BECOMING 170-200 AOB 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
SKC-FEW250, BECOMING FEW070, SCT-BKN250 THIS EVENING. VERY
ISOLATED TS EAST OF KELP AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, WITH NO DIRECT
IMPACTS TO LOCAL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SSW WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A FEW HOURS OF GOOD VENT RATES.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
WETTING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF GILA AND LINCOLN NF THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND CREEKS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK. ERCS ARE VERY LOW AT THE MOMENT, SO NO FIRE DANGER EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 77 58 74 / 10 40 50 10
SIERRA BLANCA 54 72 52 71 / 20 60 70 10
LAS CRUCES 54 76 53 72 / 10 20 50 10
ALAMOGORDO 54 75 52 72 / 10 40 60 30
CLOUDCROFT 40 56 39 52 / 10 60 60 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 75 53 72 / 0 20 60 20
SILVER CITY 49 72 49 68 / 0 20 50 40
DEMING 53 77 53 74 / 0 10 50 10
LORDSBURG 54 77 55 73 / 0 10 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 76 60 73 / 10 40 50 10
DELL CITY 55 75 55 73 / 10 30 70 30
FORT HANCOCK 61 80 59 78 / 10 50 70 10
LOMA LINDA 55 70 52 67 / 0 30 70 20
FABENS 59 79 58 76 / 0 40 60 10
SANTA TERESA 57 76 56 72 / 10 40 50 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 77 57 74 / 10 40 60 20
JORNADA RANGE 55 76 54 73 / 10 30 50 20
HATCH 54 79 55 76 / 10 30 50 10
COLUMBUS 56 78 57 75 / 0 10 40 10
OROGRANDE 54 75 53 71 / 10 30 60 20
MAYHILL 45 66 45 62 / 0 50 70 70
MESCALERO 44 67 44 63 / 10 60 60 60
TIMBERON 43 64 41 61 / 10 40 70 50
WINSTON 42 68 45 66 / 0 20 50 40
HILLSBORO 52 74 52 72 / 0 30 60 30
SPACEPORT 52 75 52 72 / 10 30 50 20
LAKE ROBERTS 43 72 44 68 / 0 20 50 50
HURLEY 47 74 48 70 / 0 20 50 30
CLIFF 50 79 53 75 / 0 30 50 40
MULE CREEK 48 75 50 70 / 0 20 40 50
FAYWOOD 50 73 51 69 / 0 20 50 30
ANIMAS 54 78 55 75 / 0 20 30 30
HACHITA 53 77 53 74 / 0 10 40 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 77 53 75 / 0 20 50 10
CLOVERDALE 52 74 52 69 / 0 20 30 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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