401
FXUS64 KEPZ 081215
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
615 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- DRIER AND HOTTER MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MANY LOWLAND
AREAS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.
- MOISTURE WILL OCCASIONALLY SEEP IN FROM THE EAST, GIVING THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE CWA TODAY AS OUR UPPER LOW IS
NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA. NEXT PACIFIC LONG-WAVE TROUGH HAS ENTERED
THE WEST COAST AND IS NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN DOWN TO WESTERN
ARIZONA. ONE SHORT-WAVE EJECTING OUT OF IT WILL RIDE UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR ANY
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH DOES DEEPEN AND DRIFT A BIT CLOSER
TO NEW MEXICO. THIS DOES INCREASE MID/UPPER FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH,
BRINGING SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. PWS AND INSTABILITY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS NO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE AS DRY-LINE REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
DRY-LINE DOES DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND MIXES
MOSTLY OUT ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SPARK A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OFF OVER THE SACS.
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH DOMINATES THE WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD; CENTERED
OVER SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND DRIFTING OVER THE CHIHUAHUAN DESERT
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHER DEWPOINTS DO FINALLY MOVE IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, BUT MODELS STILL DISAGREEING ON WESTERN EXTENT AND
DURATION OF THIS MOISTURE. FOR NOW LOW END POPS IN THE GRID FIELDS
IS PROBABLY THE BEST SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
RECORDING TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE HOT
SPOTS MAY BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 614 AM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
A STRAY SHOWER WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY, AND ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF CATRON COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND OTERO MESA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SOME BREEZINESS
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 102 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 97 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 77 54 78 / 0 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 97 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 92 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 103 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 66 98 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 65 98 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 103 75 106 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 71 103 73 105 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 70 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 78 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 65 99 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 67 102 68 103 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 98 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 88 59 90 / 0 20 0 0
MESCALERO 56 87 58 88 / 0 20 0 0
TIMBERON 53 84 55 85 / 0 10 10 0
WINSTON 55 89 57 92 / 0 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 66 96 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 63 98 65 101 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 50 92 50 93 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 95 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 52 98 51 99 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 47 93 46 94 / 0 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 64 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 99 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 99 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 98 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 93 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25
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