392
FXUS64 KEPZ 042330
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
430 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 339 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
- TODAY'S COOL FRONT BRINGS BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
- CHANCES FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW (20-30%) RETURN
TO THE BORDERLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 917 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
SOME BREEZY WINDS FROM THE N/NE HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS MORNING'S
COLD FRONT, SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PATCHY BLDU AND LOWERED
VIS MAY BE SEEN IN THE AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY AROUND LORDSBURG AND
IN FAR WEST TX WHERE DUST MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON DUST. WEST MTN
SLOPES WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT LOOSENS. THE SFC HIGH
WON'T BE VERY STRONG OR COLD, SO TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THROUGH THU, RIGHT NEAR NORMAL. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FROM
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE WE ARE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN SOUTHEAST-WARD.
THAT REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK, ALLOWING A PACIFIC
CUT-OFF LOW TO DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOCAL. SOME SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE SCOOPED UP AHEAD OF IT THU NIGHT-FRI, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP FOR US. THIS SYSTEM BECOMES ELONGATED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL JET SETS UP. WE'LL SEE IF THE MOISTURE TAP
IS OVERHEAD OR TO OUR EAST AND WHAT SORT OF UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
WE HAVE TO WORK WITH DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, PUSHING IT
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SUN-MON TIMEFRAME IS MOST
FAVORED TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AS SW FLOW
KEEPS TEMPS WARM. SNOW LEVELS HOLD IN THE 8-9KFT RANGE OR HIGHER,
SO ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WOULD SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS FORECAST. TEMPS WARM TO 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND, STAYING WARM INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
EAST/SOUTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS, BECOMING VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS AFTER
03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 917 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY, WINDS SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BEHIND THIS MORNING'S
COOL FRONT, STAYING BREEZY AT 10-20 MPH ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR,
LIGHTER TO THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT.
FOR THU, WINDS BECOME LIGHT EXCEPT OUT WEST WHERE BREEZY WINDS
LINGER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. INCREASED
CLOUDINESS INTO FRI WITH NO THREAT OF PRECIP. LIGHT WINDS AND
WARMER FOR FRI AND SAT. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS SUN-MON. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-35% THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FWZ110 WHICH IS
12-20%; THEN 12-25% AREAWIDE THU-FRI. VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO
GOOD TODAY, THEN MOSTLY POOR THROUGH FRI; MOSTLY GOOD FOR FWZ110
ON FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 34 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 29 58 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 30 59 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 29 59 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 46 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 60 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 57 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 31 62 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 60 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 26 60 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 65 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 31 56 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 31 64 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 31 60 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 28 60 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 63 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 32 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 29 58 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 59 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 24 56 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 26 52 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 23 56 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 31 59 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 27 60 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 28 58 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 65 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 62 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 31 57 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 32 61 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 31 60 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 35 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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