808
FXUS64 KEPZ 170426
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1026 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL
REBOUND NICELY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
BY TUESDAY.
- BREEZY EAST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH MIDDAY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LONG TERM FORECAST FAVORS RENEWED
RAIN CHANCES AREA WIDE, ESPECIALLY INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AT THE MOMENT DEPICTS A STAGNANT, ORPHANED
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND RIDGING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIXED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
EAST FLOW AND COOL OCTOBER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND LAST THURSDAY NIGHT'S STRONG COLD FRONT. WE MAY BE
IN FOR THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TONIGHT, DIPPING TO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH LOWLAND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 60S. THIS IS 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA, GENERALLY 10 TO 15
MPH WITH SOME LINGERING GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE
LINE.
THE TEMPERATURE REBOUND BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST LESSENS. LOWLAND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S, AN 8 TO 10-DEGREE WARMUP FROM SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH MAY LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVERAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINS ARE EXPECTED HERE.
ORPHANED LOW FINALLY OPENS UP INTO A WAVE ON MONDAY, PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.8-1.0" AND
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER 50-KNOT JET ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES SEEM QUITE
SPOTTY WITH THIS EVENT, AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL LOOKS TO BE IN
THE T-0.10" RANGE. NO FLOOD RISK HERE.
LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS A STRONG WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES,
RETURNING THE SEASONAL AVERAGES (MAYBE EVEN A BIT WARMER THAN
NORMAL) TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM CONFIDENCE IN STRONG,
MERIDIONAL JET FLOW DIVING DOWN THE PACIFIC SEABOARD MIDWEEK,
SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP PACIFIC LOW AND THUS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO PLAY
OUT AROUND THE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT IT HONESTLY LOOKS
LIKE WE'RE FACING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN CHANCES WITH A TRAIN OF
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. WHILE QPF IN LATE OCTOBER WILL BE GENERALLY LOWER
THAN SEPTEMBER DUE TO THE END OF MONSOONAL FLOW, LESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, AND SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS, THERE IS STILL A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ANY HEAVY RAINS THAT FALL WILL OCCUR
OVER SATURATED SOILS FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS GUSTY EAST FLOW DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS 080-110 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS MAY LINGER AT KDMN/KLRU INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SKIES GENERALLY FEW-SCT170, WITH GREATER COVERAGE EAST
OVER W TX. EAST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, THOUGH LIGHTER THAN
TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25-30 MPH,
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT LOCATIONS BORDERING ARIZONA. LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10
MPH PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. MIN RH'S
WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE WEEKEND STARTING IN THE UPPER TEENS IN
THE LOWLANDS AND REACHING THE 20S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. ON SUNDAY,
THESE VALUES INCREASE AS MORE MOISTURE FILTERS INTO THE AREA. BY
NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE PUTTING MIN RH'S
OVER 40% BY WEDNESDAY. VENTILATION RATES RANGE FROM GOOD TO VERY
GOOD TODAY AND DROP TO POOR TO GOOD TOMORROW. RATES SUNDAY WILL BE
POOR BECOMING POOR TO GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 64 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 37 60 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 40 62 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 38 61 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 24 47 32 53 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 62 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 59 41 64 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 41 64 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 62 48 69 / 0 0 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 64 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 39 62 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 44 68 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 36 56 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 44 67 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 43 62 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 64 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 39 63 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 40 65 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 45 64 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 62 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 57 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 28 59 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 27 53 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 32 56 37 63 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 40 61 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 62 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 34 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 37 60 41 66 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 43 69 49 73 / 0 0 10 10
MULE CREEK 40 64 46 68 / 0 0 10 20
FAYWOOD 38 59 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 45 63 48 70 / 0 0 10 20
HACHITA 42 62 46 69 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 64 46 71 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 41 60 45 70 / 0 0 10 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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