998
FXUS64 KEPZ 071128
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
528 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING LOWLAND HIGHS
TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY,
OTHERWISE DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT CURRENTLY IN E NM ARRIVES IN THE MORNING,
BRINGING SOME GUSTY E-NE WINDS TO THE REGION. WEST SLOPES COULD
SEE GUSTS TO 30 MPH THU AM, SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY AS THE NEAR-
SFC WINDS MIX OUT. A MEAGER UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THU/FRI WITH NOT MUCH IMPACT FOR US. SCATTERED CU
DEVELOP OVER THE GILA REGION AND ALONG THE INT'L BORDER LATE IN
THE DAY, OTHERWISE WE STAY DRY FOR THU. CLOUDS LINGER AND ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW THROUGH FRI AS IT PUSHES INTO THE BIG BEND WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR HUDSPETH CO. DUE TO SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR
AND COOLER AIR ALOFT, ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
OUTFLOWS CAN BE SEEN.
MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES FOR SUN WITH
BREEZY E WINDS BEING THE ONLY IMPACT AS TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY OUT
EAST. THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES OVERHEAD MON-WED, RESULTING IN
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER, A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER NW MEXICO AT THE SAME TIME, PROVIDING
FORCING FOR SOME TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER THE SIERRA MADRES. WE'LL SEE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
REACH SOUTHERN NM TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN AREA MTNS
DURING THE WORKWEEK, BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY DRY INTO MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE
WINDS 100-150 AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SKIES BEGINNING SKC, THEN FEW-SCT100 AFTER
21Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. MIN RH 10-20% WITH
GOOD VENTILATION THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WITH SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITY ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS
BECOME WARMER AND DRIER. ERCS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY AFTER
RECENT RAINS, WHICH WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER MODERATE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. NEXT WEEK SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A RISK OF LIGHTNING STARTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 88 59 95 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 80 51 88 / 10 30 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 86 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 85 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 63 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 85 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 80 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 48 89 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 47 85 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 86 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 49 85 51 93 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 88 55 96 / 10 20 0 0
LOMA LINDA 52 79 55 86 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 55 88 55 95 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 52 85 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 86 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 86 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 89 53 94 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 54 89 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 83 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 75 46 82 / 0 10 0 0
MESCALERO 40 74 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 39 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 40 79 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 50 84 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 46 85 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 40 81 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 43 83 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 44 87 47 91 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 83 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 46 82 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 85 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 48 85 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 50 85 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 49 80 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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