251
FXUS64 KEPZ 202350
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
450 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 440 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
- TONIGHT A SECOND COLD FRONT PUSHES IN WITH STRONG EAST WINDS,
DANGEROUSLY COLD WINDCHILLS FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
- DRY AND COOL FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH SLOW WARMING BACK TO
NORMAL AND ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO
WINDY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS TO STAY DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
A LARGE LONG WAVE UL TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO SEEP SOUTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A S/W TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL DROP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
20S WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL COMBINE WITH BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BY MORNING
WITH LOWLANDS RANGING 0 TO 5 WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND 5 TO 15
ELSEWHERE WITH BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS. I UPGRADED THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING ACROSS HIDALGO COUNTY
WHERE NBM, HREF, AND CURRENT FORECAST ALL INDICATE WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 5. ELSEWHERE, THE COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS
INHERITED LOOK GOOD. LOWLAND HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 40 IN
THE LOWLANDS WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER, HOWEVER, SO IT WILL NOT
FEEL AS COLD. NEVERTHELESS, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN FOR MOUNTAINS AND SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS.
MERIDIONAL TO NW'LY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME ZONAL THEN SW'LY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK S/W WILL PASS NEARBY ON THURSDAY BUT TO LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 5 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THE ZONAL TO SW'LY FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO BE FORMING TOWARD CA OR NV,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL SEE
SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT, BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA. OUR SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AND CEILINGS UNLIMITED FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST
TONIGHT AND THAT WILL GIVE US SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW END GUSTY EAST
OR NORTHEAST WINDS. THE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO DROP OFF EARLY IN THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY AND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPERATURES AND WINDCHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW
TUESDAY MORNING, SO ANYONE WORKING OUTSIDE ON THE RAMPS OR A TARMAC
SHOULD DRESS APPROPRIATELY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
COLD, DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AGAIN THIS
EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT MIN RH VALUES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURES RECOVER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN
HOLD STEADY INTO FRIDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS. THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING BUT WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VENTING WILL BE POOR EXCEPT IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 21 38 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 14 35 17 48 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 18 37 17 50 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 11 36 13 51 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 0 25 13 37 / 10 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 15 37 17 51 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 11 37 19 55 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 15 38 13 52 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 14 39 12 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 21 37 22 48 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 15 37 12 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 16 41 14 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 14 31 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 17 38 17 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 18 36 17 48 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 19 38 22 50 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 12 36 12 50 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 15 40 13 53 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 21 38 17 50 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 14 34 15 47 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 3 39 21 52 / 10 10 0 0
MESCALERO 1 32 14 47 / 10 10 0 0
TIMBERON 0 31 12 47 / 10 10 0 0
WINSTON 1 38 12 52 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 11 38 19 52 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 11 38 12 52 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 8 43 19 56 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 8 37 13 53 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 0 46 5 61 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 11 43 18 57 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 13 36 18 50 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 16 41 12 56 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 14 38 12 53 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 16 39 16 55 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 17 37 20 56 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO
COUNTY.
NM...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-LOWLANDS OF
THE BOOTHEEL-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500
FEET-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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