881
FXUS64 KEPZ 021735
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1135 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
FROM 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SACS FROM TIME TO TIME, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- WINDS DIE OFF THIS EVENING BUT WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER KS YESTERDAY HAS NOW DISSIPATED AND AN
ELONGATED TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
THE BORDERLAND. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AROUND HUDSPETH COUNTY. THIS ALL HAS
BROUGHT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SACS. ACTUALLY HAD
OVER 0.25" OF RAIN ON THE EASTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING, BUT THE
DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY EXPECT
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST SOME DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT
AND BESIDES THE FAR EASTERN ZONES, THINK MOST AREAS WILL BECOME
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LESS CLOUDS AND DECREASING WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL MORE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH 50S COMMON OVER THE
LOWLANDS.
SATURDAY LOOKS VERY NICE WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS CONTINUING AND
JUST SOME CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE MUCH LESS THAN
TODAY OVERALL AND DON'T EVEN EXPECT SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP COMPARED TO TODAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. MID TO
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH LOTS OF 60S IN AREA
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SUNDAY WITH EVEN FEWER CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EVEN AS UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS WESTWARD. A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH MON AND
WED. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER, ESPECIALLY MONDAY, WITH THESE
FEATURES AND BESIDES A MOUNTAIN SHOWER IT LOOKS DRY FOR THE AREA
WITH TEMPS GETTING TO ABOUT 3-5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SCT-BKN050-070 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AT ALL TERMINALS BY 06Z TO SKC-FEW060-080. AREAS OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH AND NORTH INTO THE EASTERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WILL KEEP A LOW OVERCAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND START TO DISSIPATE
AFTER 12Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR AND EAST OF THE RGV IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTH EVEN A VCSH SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE SO
LOW. WINDS WILL START OUT GUSTY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT
10-20G30KTS, STRONGEST AT KDMN AND KTCS, BEFORE DECREASING TO AOB
12KTS BY 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS COMING FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH HIGHS
STARTING OUT ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ENDING UP ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RH'S WILL BE
ABOVE 30% THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME 20S POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN FOR SATURDAY THEN ANOTHER
SLIGHT INCREASE FOR SUN/MON BUT STILL BELOW 20KTS. BESIDES A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE SACS INTO THIS EVENING AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
MON/WED NEXT WEEK UP THERE AS WELL, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR SAT AND IMPROVE TO FAIR TO GOOD
FOR SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 77 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 71 54 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 52 75 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 71 55 76 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 56 42 56 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 71 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 70 52 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 75 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 75 57 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 57 76 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 55 73 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 79 58 79 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 51 70 54 72 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 55 79 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 75 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 75 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 74 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 52 74 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 55 76 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 46 65 49 66 / 30 10 0 0
MESCALERO 44 66 47 68 / 20 10 0 0
TIMBERON 42 62 45 64 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 44 68 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 52 70 55 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 71 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 74 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 72 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 49 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 46 76 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 72 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 74 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 74 56 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 73 56 74 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 70 55 70 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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