359
FXUS64 KEPZ 121231
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
- A PASSING LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION AND BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY TODAY; BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY.
- HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST TO KEEP THE REGION'S
WEATHER FAIR AND DRY, WITH FEWER CLOUDS, LIGHTER WINDS, AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA IS SCOOPING UP A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THE
BORDERLAND FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN STILL.
SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE WITH
GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND LIGHT PRECIP RATES.
THE LOW EJECTS TO THE EAST ON TUE AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES
OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AROUND A REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST
COAST. A MODEST BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES FOR WED, BRINGING SOME
BREEZY E-NE WINDS BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE
COLDER AIR WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST. A SECOND BACKDOOR/SIDEDOOR
FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK (FRI/SAT) WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND HOW FAR
WEST IT REACHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT (AOB 10 MPH)
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK UNDER FAIR SKIES. AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY ON
MON, TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WARMING A
BIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS STAY ON THE COOLER
SIDE THROUGH TUE AM, REACHING THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AOB 10KTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO THE UPPER TEENS FOR KDMN.
MID AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ROTATING IN FROM THE SOUTH, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT KELP CIGS AS LOW AS 070.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 517 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
FAIR, DRY, AND BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH NO IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. AN
UPPER LOW IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH, WITH SOME CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM THE SOUTH, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY, AND THROUGH
THE WEEK, IS NEAR ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, TO OUR SOUTH, EXITS TO THE EAST. WE
WILL SEE OUR REGION'S AIRMASS REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
STEADILY, AND END UP RUNNING 5-9 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR PATTERN, WE
WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS FOR MOST DAYS, WITH ONLY LIGHT OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZES. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, WE WILL SEE LOW
AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20 PERCENT RANGES. NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY GOOD RH RECOVERIES,
DESPITE THE DRY AIR. THIS MEANS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMAL FOR THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 33 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 55 31 58 / 20 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 26 58 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 25 57 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 44 25 41 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 58 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 27 57 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 26 60 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 23 57 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 34 58 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 21 60 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 32 61 28 64 / 20 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 32 53 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 30 60 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 28 57 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 33 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 22 59 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 24 62 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 28 60 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 27 56 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 58 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 23 56 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 22 52 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 21 57 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 29 60 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 23 59 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 22 57 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 25 58 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 22 61 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 59 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 29 58 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 25 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 23 58 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 26 58 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 32 56 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page