836
FXUS64 KEPZ 070639
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1139 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS, TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES, AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1058 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
VERY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE RELIABLY FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BIT
BREEZY ON THE EAST SIDE OF EL PASO THIS EVENING AS A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING THROUGH, WITH A BIT OF A WIND MAXIMUM
AROUND THE 850 MB LEVEL. THIS IS RESULTING IN PERIODIC GUSTY
WINDS ON THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE FRANKLINS (AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT TIMES AT ELP).
OUTSIDE OF EAST EL PASO, WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER, AND TEMPERATURES
ARE COOLING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER, AND
AND OVERALL WARMER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. SO WHILE WE'LL LIKELY SEE
OUR USUAL COLD SPOTS DEVELOP, WE SHOULDN'T SEE QUITE THE EXTREMES
WE SAW FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE THE COLDER VALLEYS UP IN
THE GILA DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE-10S, AND MUCH OF THE
RURAL MESILLA VALLEY WAS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE-20S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY-STATE
THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN QUICKLY RAMP UP INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY,
AS LEE TROUGHING ENHANCES WESTERLY FLOW SLIGHTLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
BREEZY WEST WINDS DIMINISHED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EAST EL PASO, BUT
THE 5-MINUTE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WINDS ARE COMING AND GOING, AND
WHEN THEY DROP (SOMETIMES AS LOW AS 3-5 KNOTS), YOU'VE STILL GOT
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR JUST OFF THE DECK. THE LLWS AND OFF AND ON
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 08-09Z AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NW AND NNW.
LLWS IS NOT EXPECTED AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS AS ONLY ELP IS ON THE
TAIL-END OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND MAX.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED,
WITH LIGHT NNW TO NNE WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. MIN RH VALUES WILL STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH VALUES OF 20-30% IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 30-40% IN THE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS
OF CRITICAL MIN RHS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MOSTLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS. THE BREEZIEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OUT OF
THE WEST GENERALLY 5-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. EACH DAY AFTER
THAT WILL HAVE LIGHTER WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
LEANING ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY, PEAKING AT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 38 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 60 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 27 44 29 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 33 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 58 33 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 32 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 61 31 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 37 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 63 23 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 32 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 33 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 65 32 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 61 34 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 39 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 60 27 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 63 29 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 33 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 32 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 29 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 51 26 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 51 25 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 55 26 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 61 34 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 58 30 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 24 61 21 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 60 30 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 63 26 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 23 62 22 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 59 32 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 63 32 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 62 33 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 29 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 60 34 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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