583
FXUS64 KEPZ 301139
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
539 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH MONDAY, THEN LOW CHANCES IN AREA
MOUNTAINS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WESTERN AREAS INTO E AZ WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR STORMS THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE MONSOON HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY.
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT OUT WEST WITH THE
MODEST MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND STORM MOTION TO THE NORTH. MOST
AREAS, INCLUDING EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES, STAY DRY FOR SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. PWS RISE TO 1.1-1.2"
W OF THE DIVIDE ON SUN AS THE MOISTURE PLUME NUDGES EASTWARD,
RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL (UP TO 2"), FOCUSING IN HIDALGO CO.
THE MOISTURE PLUME NUDGES A BIT FURTHER EAST ON MON, INCREASING
STORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY AREA-WIDE. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OUT WEST ON MON DUE TO HIGHER PWS, AGAIN FAVORING HIDALGO
CO. ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS FORECAST INTO THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN AREAS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER HIGH FOCUSING OVER THE
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY INTO MIDWEEK AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, KEEPING MUCH OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF US. LOW MTN
STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD AS THE LOWLANDS STAY
MAINLY DRY. THE HIGH LOOKS TO CENTRALIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND REINVIGORATE THE MOISTURE PLUME A BIT. AREAS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST APPEAR BEST SET UP FOR STORM CHANCES TO END THE
PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY TROPICAL REMNANTS
FROM THE PACIFIC FROM REACHING THE DESERT SW FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS OF 95-100F ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH SLIGHT
COOLING ON TUE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK, SHIFTING MORE W
BY MON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT STORMS WILL POP UP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STORM OR
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO MENTION IN TAF. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AOB 10KT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO TREK EASTWARD TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE AT 5-8 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH A FOCUS BEING OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY MONDAY, A BETTER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SETS UP OVER ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. THE
GILA REGION AND WESTERN LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR STORM
CHANCES THAT AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BETTER STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
MIN RH VALUES WILL STAY NEAR CRITICAL ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VALUES OF 15-20%. MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL
BE ANYWHERE FROM 25-45%. 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 99 74 97 / 0 20 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 96 66 94 / 0 20 10 0
LAS CRUCES 70 98 68 95 / 10 20 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 98 69 95 / 10 20 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 53 75 52 72 / 10 30 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 95 70 93 / 10 20 30 10
SILVER CITY 63 87 61 87 / 20 30 20 10
DEMING 69 97 67 96 / 10 20 20 0
LORDSBURG 67 91 65 92 / 30 20 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 99 75 97 / 10 20 20 0
DELL CITY 70 99 70 98 / 0 20 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 103 73 100 / 0 20 20 0
LOMA LINDA 69 92 67 90 / 0 20 20 0
FABENS 72 100 72 98 / 10 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 72 97 71 95 / 10 20 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 99 73 96 / 10 20 20 10
JORNADA RANGE 70 97 68 95 / 10 20 20 10
HATCH 71 100 69 98 / 10 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 72 98 71 96 / 10 20 30 0
OROGRANDE 70 97 68 94 / 10 20 20 0
MAYHILL 58 87 57 85 / 10 30 10 50
MESCALERO 57 86 56 83 / 10 30 20 40
TIMBERON 56 84 55 82 / 10 20 10 20
WINSTON 59 86 58 84 / 20 40 20 60
HILLSBORO 68 95 66 93 / 10 20 30 20
SPACEPORT 69 97 67 94 / 10 20 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 57 86 55 85 / 20 40 20 20
HURLEY 63 90 61 90 / 20 30 20 10
CLIFF 66 93 65 93 / 30 30 20 10
MULE CREEK 62 87 62 89 / 30 20 20 0
FAYWOOD 66 91 64 89 / 20 20 30 10
ANIMAS 66 91 65 91 / 40 40 40 10
HACHITA 66 92 65 91 / 20 40 40 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 91 64 90 / 30 50 50 30
CLOVERDALE 62 84 62 84 / 50 50 50 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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