059
FXUS64 KEPZ 191151
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
451 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 446 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SOME BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT, THEN WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA. WE ARE SEEING INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BRISK WINDS SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 901 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
OUR STAGNANT BLOCKING PATTERN, OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE
U.S. WEST COAST CONTINUES, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAIR, AND DEFINITELY DRY. DEEP
NW AND W FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY, WITH INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE WHAT WILL BRING
CHANGES EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. A SHORTWAVE WILL CUT SE TO
OUR NE, AND ALLOW FOR A COLD POOL TO PUSH SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
IN THE DAY TOMORROW. OUR SACS AND OTERO MESA MAY SEE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TO CUT OFF AFTERNOON HEATING, FOR A COOLER
DAY, BUT MOST OF OUR REGION WILL SEE NOTICEABLE WARMING WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FAVORING WINDS. THOSE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
NE AND E, WITH SOME MODERATE INCREASES IN SPEEDS AND GUSTS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ADVANCE WEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
WESTWARD. THE OTERO MESA, WACO MTNS, AND SPREADING WEST INTO THE
FRANKLIN AND ORGAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME BREEZY AND GUSTY EAST
WINDS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH. THE
FRONTAL FEATURE WILL HAVE NO MOISTURE TO BRING OR WORK WITH, SO NO
PRECIPITATION FOR US WITH THE PASSAGE. THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND KEEP TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER, AND
JUST ABOUT AT THE DAILY AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE FAIR WEATHER DAYS, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SLOWLY ERODING AND SHIFTING OVER OUR REGION.
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL, DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS, AND LIGHTER WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO A S OR W
DIRECTION. WEDNESDAY, THE LOOKS TO BE A WEAKER PUSH FROM THE
PLAINS, BUT IT LOOKS TO BE ALMOST TOTALLY INCONSEQUENTIAL, AND
HARDLY WORTH A MENTION. THURSDAY, WE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS, MOVING IN FROM THE SW, AS THE NEXT UPPER
LOW STORM SYSTEM FORMS OFF THE BAJA, AND SCOOPS AND STEERS
MOISTURE BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS.
FINALLY, THE GOOD STUFF...THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. LAST NIGHT WE WERE DOWNPLAYING THIS, BUT MODELS ARE COMING
INTO AGREEMENT IN A PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY,
WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING THIS PERIOD
OF PRECIP POTENTIAL TO THE ENTIRE CWFA, DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT, TRACK, AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. AS OF NOW, THE NBM IS
KEEPING THE COLD AIR OVER THE RGV AND EAST, AND EVEN THEN, KEEPING
SNOW LEVELS ABOVE THE DESERT FLOORS AND VALLEYS. THUS, IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A LOWLAND RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SCENARIO. IT
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE MEANINGFUL QPF POTENTIAL, SO WE WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE LAST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST GOING
FORWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT180 SCT-BKN250. SURFACE
WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS THROUGH 18Z, THEN BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 7-10 KNOTS. AFTER 00Z...WINDS TURNING EAST BEHIND
INCOMING COOL FRONT AND INCREASING TO 10-13G20 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
DRY PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOSTLY LIGHT WIND REGIME THROUGH SAME PERIOD TOO, THOUGH
COOL FRONT PUSHING IN FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING WILL
CREATE A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO NEAR THE BAJA PEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, SPREADING CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VIGOROUS COLD FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRISK EAST WINDS, COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS
MOSTLY OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT. TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 13-20% THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 20-30%
FRIDAY AND 40-50% SATURDAY/SUNDAY. MOUNTAINS 15-25% THROUGH
THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 30-40% FRIDAY AND 55-70% SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
VENT RATES POOR-FAIR THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 32 59 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 25 57 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 27 55 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 23 57 24 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 20 40 24 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 29 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 29 59 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 31 59 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 33 57 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 21 55 23 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 27 62 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 28 54 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 29 59 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 28 56 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 31 56 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 21 57 19 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 24 59 22 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 31 58 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 23 56 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 19 56 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 21 51 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 21 48 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 21 54 21 59 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 29 57 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 20 57 19 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 21 57 24 60 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 27 56 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 19 63 22 65 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 17 58 18 61 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 30 55 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 30 61 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 59 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 27 61 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 33 60 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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