532
FXUS64 KEPZ 081725
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1125 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING LOWLAND HIGHS
TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY.
- A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLANDS HIGHS IN THE
MID-90S COMMON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SMALL UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL CURRENTLY, AND IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST, REACHING THE BIG BEND THIS
EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALSO REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF US THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE THAT, MODEST INSTABILITY
NUMBERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. LI'S OF 0 TO -2 AND MUCAPES OF AROUND 200 J/KG DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, SO LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN HUDSPETH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LOOK WARRANTED.
LOW EXITS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THE GENERAL PATTERN INTO THE
MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD IN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR A MAINLY DRY SOLUTION. A SHORT WAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES DOES DROP DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF SOME ON POPS, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN OTERO (SACS) AND MAYBE EASTERN HUDSPETH COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DECENT CAPE VALUES
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS.
UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER NEW MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUB-TROPICAL TAP STREAMING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER
ARIZONA IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE. MODELS THEN TAKE THE
TROUGH/MOISTURE PLUME EAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, THOUGH THIS NOT REFLECTED IN GRIDS AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING DOWN WITH THIS EVENT TOO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT090. OVER
HUDSPETH COUNTY...SCT-BKN100 SCT250 AND BETWEEN 21Z-01Z...BKN070
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY NORTH
7-10 KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
LOW TO ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
THE EAST WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES WEST ACROSS
MOST OF THE FIRE ZONES. THESE WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAC MTNS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
LOW HUMIDITIES AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
GRADUALLY DRYING OUT FUELS. ERCS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S
PERCENT BY MID-WEEK.
MIN RH: LOWLAND 8-13% THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT 12-20% MONDAY.
GILA/BLACK RANGE 8-15% THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT 15-23% MONDAY.
SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS 10-20% THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT 15-30%
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 52 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 91 55 90 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 44 69 49 66 / 0 0 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 91 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 94 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 94 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 92 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 96 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 95 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 48 92 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 48 95 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 49 90 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 83 53 75 / 0 10 0 30
MESCALERO 46 80 52 77 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 45 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 46 82 51 81 / 0 10 0 10
HILLSBORO 57 89 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 46 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 40 85 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 52 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 39 92 40 92 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 36 86 38 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 91 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 91 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 92 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page