790
FXUS64 KEPZ 121124
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
524 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
- MOISTURE WILL GIVE THE AREA SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS
WEEKEND. TRENDING DRY AND HOT AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
LOOKS LIKE OUR WEATHER PATTERNS ARE SLOWING DOWN JUST A LITTLE.
WE HAD HOPED TO HAVE SUB 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AS MOISTURE MOVED INTO THE REGION, BUT THE MODELS ARE
SLOWING THE MOISTURE INFLUX SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHICH
WILL ALLOW A FEW LOWLAND LOCATIONS TO HIT THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
BOTH AFTERNOONS. THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND TO BE HONEST, WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EAST OF OUR REGION, THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA. WHAT WE MAY SEE THOUGH IS
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE STORMS TO OUR EAST LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.25) WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
WILL HELP FUEL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW AVERAGE.
STARTING TUESDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL
SEE AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO TO DRY US OUT AND HEAT THINGS BACK UP. THE EXTENDED
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH USUALLY TRENDS BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY IS
ACTUALLY TRENDING HIGHER WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A SURE SIGN THE THE EXTENDED
MODELS SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR US NEXT WEEK. IF THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN
WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN250, ADDING FEW-SCT090 IN
THE AFTERNOON. SCT TSRA/SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WELL EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE, FARTHER WEST, SCT VIRGA MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. STORM OUTFLOWS MAY OCCUR
AT ANY SITE, HOWEVER WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MOISTURE HAS SLIPPED INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS
MORNING. WHILE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT, ENOUGH WILL
REMAIN FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY INTO THE SACRAMENTO - CAPITAN MOUNTAINS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE, SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. WINDS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 10 MPH WITH FAIR TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE AREA WIDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT
DRIER AND HOTTER AIR RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 102 77 98 / 10 0 10 20
SIERRA BLANCA 64 95 67 92 / 20 10 10 40
LAS CRUCES 68 100 70 96 / 10 0 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 68 98 71 95 / 10 0 10 60
CLOUDCROFT 51 78 53 71 / 20 20 10 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 98 71 93 / 0 10 0 30
SILVER CITY 63 93 63 91 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 69 103 71 101 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 68 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 100 75 97 / 10 0 10 20
DELL CITY 65 99 66 92 / 30 10 20 40
FORT HANCOCK 71 102 72 100 / 20 10 10 30
LOMA LINDA 66 93 68 88 / 20 0 10 30
FABENS 70 103 72 99 / 10 0 10 20
SANTA TERESA 69 99 71 96 / 10 0 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 100 77 96 / 10 0 10 40
JORNADA RANGE 68 99 69 95 / 10 0 10 30
HATCH 69 102 70 99 / 0 10 0 20
COLUMBUS 73 102 76 100 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 66 97 68 93 / 10 0 10 30
MAYHILL 57 88 57 77 / 20 50 10 80
MESCALERO 55 88 57 81 / 10 20 10 80
TIMBERON 52 84 55 77 / 20 20 10 70
WINSTON 61 90 61 85 / 0 20 0 60
HILLSBORO 68 96 68 92 / 0 20 0 30
SPACEPORT 65 98 66 94 / 0 10 0 30
LAKE ROBERTS 59 93 58 91 / 0 10 0 20
HURLEY 64 95 65 93 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 64 98 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 62 94 61 93 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 66 95 66 92 / 0 0 0 20
ANIMAS 67 97 67 96 / 0 10 10 20
HACHITA 67 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 97 66 95 / 10 10 10 30
CLOVERDALE 64 92 63 90 / 10 10 10 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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