697
FXUS64 KEPZ 231125
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
525 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- A RARE LATE-SEASON RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS BETWEEN 2 AND 10 PM. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- MORE STORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, MOSTLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. HIGHEST LOCAL RISKS ACROSS OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN CHANCES LOOKS LIKELY AFTER NEXT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN UPPER LOW NOW OVER WESTERN NEVADA. LOW
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING OUT NORTHWARD AS A SECONDARY LOW EVENTUALLY
CLOSES OFF OVER SOCAL AND ARIZONA. LEADING TROUGH FROM THE LOW
EXTENDS N-S ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE LINE WITH GOOD DRYING BEHIND IT.
THIS TROUGH DELINEATES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS EVENING'S
CONVECTION. A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT FROM WESTERN ARIZONA DOWN
ACROSS THE BAJA WILL CONTINUE EAST POSSIBLY NEAR THE AZ/NM BEFORE
WASHING OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFTING
EAST OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT.
THIS WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWA (PWS OF AROUND .6
INCHES COMPARED TO 1.0 INCH IN THE EAST). DECENT CAPE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN FROM ABOUT DEMING EAST, WITH MORE
ISOLATED STORMS TO THE WEST, THOUGH SOME SEVERE STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD FROM ARIZONA UP TO SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL PUSH DEEPER
LAYERED MOISTURE EAST OF THE RG VALLEY, WHERE DECENT CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT BEST STORM COVERAGE FROM THE RG
VALLEY, WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST. LOWERING
PWS ALL AREAS SUGGEST LESS CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING. SOME
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY
TO THE RG VALLEY EAST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN UPPER LOW EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT (AT LEAST AT UPPER LEVELS). GFS SHOWS MID-
LEVEL WINDS (700MB) REMAINING SOUTHERLY AND KEEPING SOME SHALLOWER
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN CWA, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY FROM EL PASO EAST. MOISTURE CLEARS OUT TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
WINDS BRIEFLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GFS REMAINS BULLISH IN BRINGING UP MORE
MOISTURE WITH THE HELP OF A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA. THUS GFS HAS WEST TWO DAYS HERE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
HIGH RISK OF DIRECT TS IMPACTS AT KELP AND S NM SITES THIS
EVENING. FORECAST BEGINNING WITH FEW060, FEW-SCT250 THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS 140-180 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CB DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND S NM AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY
REACHING KELP/KLRU 22-02Z. TS MOVING TO THE NE AT 40 MPH.
TEMPORARY IFR VIS DUE TO +TSRA AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
TAF AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY THIS TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AFTER 04Z TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING SHRA THROUGH MIDNIGHT,
THEN CLEAR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER DUE TO RECENT RAINS. PREVAILING WIND OUT OF THE
SSE AT 5 TO 10 MPH, WITH GOOD VENT RATES TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY AFFECTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND LINCOLN NF. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
BETWEEN 2-8PM, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY
GILA NF AND WESTERN NM, BUT WIDESPREAD STORMS CONTINUING FOR
SOUTHEAST NM AND LINCOLN NF. STORM MOTIONS TO THE NE AT 30-40 MPH
WILL REDUCE FLOOD RISK SOMEWHAT, THOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING
REMAINS POSSIBLE. MONDAY-WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER, BUT RAIN CHANCES
RETURN QUICKLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 79 57 75 / 80 60 80 10
SIERRA BLANCA 56 77 54 74 / 60 50 80 20
LAS CRUCES 54 74 52 71 / 70 50 70 20
ALAMOGORDO 54 75 52 71 / 90 80 90 40
CLOUDCROFT 42 54 40 52 / 90 80 90 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 69 52 68 / 50 60 50 20
SILVER CITY 48 65 43 64 / 30 40 10 10
DEMING 53 75 50 72 / 30 30 10 20
LORDSBURG 54 71 47 69 / 10 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 78 59 74 / 80 60 80 10
DELL CITY 58 77 56 73 / 80 80 100 50
FORT HANCOCK 62 85 60 82 / 80 60 70 20
LOMA LINDA 55 72 53 68 / 80 70 90 20
FABENS 60 82 58 79 / 70 50 80 20
SANTA TERESA 57 77 55 73 / 70 50 70 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 58 77 56 73 / 80 70 90 30
JORNADA RANGE 55 74 52 71 / 80 60 80 20
HATCH 55 75 52 73 / 60 50 50 20
COLUMBUS 57 78 54 75 / 20 30 10 10
OROGRANDE 55 74 53 71 / 80 80 90 30
MAYHILL 48 62 46 62 / 90 90 90 40
MESCALERO 46 65 44 62 / 90 80 90 30
TIMBERON 44 61 42 59 / 100 90 100 60
WINSTON 45 63 40 63 / 40 60 30 10
HILLSBORO 51 69 46 68 / 50 50 30 20
SPACEPORT 52 71 50 69 / 60 60 60 30
LAKE ROBERTS 45 64 37 64 / 40 50 10 10
HURLEY 48 68 43 66 / 30 40 10 10
CLIFF 53 71 47 70 / 30 50 10 10
MULE CREEK 48 66 43 65 / 20 40 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 67 46 66 / 40 40 20 20
ANIMAS 54 74 48 73 / 0 10 0 0
HACHITA 54 74 49 72 / 10 20 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 76 49 75 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 51 68 46 69 / 0 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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