685
FXUS64 KEPZ 101146
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
546 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REMAINING HOT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
98-104. TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW TRIPLE DIGITS SUNDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK DUE TO EXCESS MOISTURE AND STORMS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR STRONGER
STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES THEN EXPANDS
AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EAST FLOW AT THE UPPER
LEVELS AND WILL HELP FLUSH IN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE. EXPECT DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUSING OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE LOWLANDS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHERN CONUS
ALLOWING FOR A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE TO PUSH IN DURING THIS TIME. PW
VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME WITH VALUES OF 1.2-
1.3" WHICH WILL ADD TO THE FLOODING THREAT WITH STORMS AND MAY ALSO
ADD TO THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
LIKE YESTERDAY (AND TOMORROW) WE WILL SEE SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THAT CAN
TRAVEL A GOOD DISTANCE FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORMS. MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS THIS
MORNING, BUT AS TRENDS BECOME MORE EVIDENT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WE WILL UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED. THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING. WE COULD HAVE SOME MID OR HIGH
CEILINGS FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL
SIMILAR WEATHER ON SATURDAY, THEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
TODAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND
ISOLATED LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. WE WILL SEE VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. MIN RH'S TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20'S IN AREA MOUNTAINS.
MIN RH'S FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20% AS
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS, OUR WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 102 76 97 / 20 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 96 66 91 / 10 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 69 100 70 95 / 20 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 72 99 69 95 / 10 40 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 52 72 / 10 50 20 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 100 72 95 / 10 10 40 10
SILVER CITY 64 93 65 89 / 20 40 40 20
DEMING 68 101 69 98 / 20 10 30 10
LORDSBURG 68 98 68 95 / 30 20 50 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 100 76 96 / 10 0 10 0
DELL CITY 71 99 69 94 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 103 74 98 / 10 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 69 94 68 89 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 74 102 74 98 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 72 99 72 95 / 10 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 100 76 96 / 20 10 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 72 100 71 96 / 30 10 20 10
HATCH 72 103 71 99 / 30 10 30 10
COLUMBUS 73 102 74 98 / 40 0 20 0
OROGRANDE 71 99 70 94 / 10 10 10 10
MAYHILL 59 86 56 81 / 10 30 20 40
MESCALERO 57 87 56 83 / 10 50 20 30
TIMBERON 56 85 54 80 / 10 30 10 30
WINSTON 62 92 62 88 / 20 10 40 10
HILLSBORO 70 97 69 93 / 20 20 50 10
SPACEPORT 69 100 68 95 / 20 10 30 20
LAKE ROBERTS 59 95 59 91 / 20 60 40 20
HURLEY 64 96 65 93 / 20 30 50 10
CLIFF 65 99 65 96 / 20 40 40 40
MULE CREEK 63 95 64 92 / 20 40 30 50
FAYWOOD 66 95 67 91 / 20 30 50 10
ANIMAS 68 98 68 96 / 40 20 50 10
HACHITA 66 98 67 95 / 40 10 50 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 96 67 95 / 60 10 40 10
CLOVERDALE 63 90 63 90 / 60 30 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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