069
FXUS64 KEPZ 221156
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
556 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, WHICH WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRIVEN
BY RECYCLED MOISTURE UNDER THIS UPPER HIGH, WITH LESS AND LESS
COVERAGE EACH DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
THE MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH LOOKS
TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF AUGUST. LOWLAND HIGHS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 98-102 DEGREE RANGE WILL RUN 8-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST AND NEAR DAILY RECORDS. CURRENTLY NO
DAILY RECORD FOR EL PASO IN THE FORECAST, BUT WERE ONLY 1-2
DEGREES OFF MOST DAYS GOING FORWARD.
EARLIER THIS EVENING WE SAW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. SOUNDING PWS WERE 1.0-1.1, WITH
BARELY ENOUGH INSTABILITY (400-800 J/KG), AND A MIX OF CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE/TERRAIN FORCING. STORMS WERE QUITE WEAK, WITH 10-20%
COVERAGE OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MORE NOTABLE WINNERS BEING THE
SOUTHWESTERN RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN AND SOUTHERN BLACK
RANGE.
FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT MORE OF THIS WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ONLY
ANOTHER TICK LOWER IN COVERAGE. LOWLAND CHANCES FALL BELOW 5%,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
FAVOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS, POPPING AROUND NOON AND DIMINISHING
PRIOR TO SUNSET. BEST CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER GRANT COUNTY. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN DRIER, WITH VERY SPOTTY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
ALMOST NO ACTION FOR LOWLAND ZONES.
UPPER HIGH DRIFTS EAST DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A NEAR-TOTAL SHUT OFF OF
MOISTURE FLOW AND THE END OF STORM CHANCES AREA WIDE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 0.8-1.0 WILL FALL BELOW THE CLIMATE NORMALS AND
STRONG (AND VERY WARM) SUBSIDENT FLOW WITHIN THE 400-600MB LAYER
ALOFT WILL HINDER UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BE PUSHED WEST ACROSS ARIZONA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, LEADING
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LATE-AUGUST DRYNESS AND HEAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
PERSIST N OF KLRU AND KDMN THIS MORNING, DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD FIZZLE OUT AFTER SUNRISE, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TS
OVER HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. KTCS IS MOST LIKELY AMONG
TERMINALS TO SEE A STORM IN THE AREA, BUT ONLY ABOUT 10%. WINDS
REMAIN AOB 8KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER AREA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAN YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER
HIGH MOVES MORE OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK, LARGELY SHUTTING OFF
RAIN/STORM CHANCES. ONLY SLIGHT STORM CHANCES REMAIN OVER HIGH
TERRAIN AS MODEST SE FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE
NORMAL, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS. ERC'S ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TOWARDS THE 75TH %-ILE.
MIN RHS WILL BE 10-15% IN THE LOWLANDS; 20-35% IN THE MTNS TODAY,
THEN 15-30%. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN MTNS TODAY, GOOD
TO EXCELLENT IN LOWLANDS; THEN GOOD TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 96 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 99 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 76 54 78 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 98 71 99 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 92 64 94 / 30 0 0 10
DEMING 71 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 71 99 70 100 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 103 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 73 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 71 102 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 98 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 89 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 56 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 55 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 61 90 61 91 / 20 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 69 97 69 99 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 98 68 100 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 91 58 92 / 30 10 0 10
HURLEY 66 95 65 97 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 66 100 67 100 / 30 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 64 96 65 97 / 30 10 10 0
FAYWOOD 68 94 67 96 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 70 99 70 100 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 70 98 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 93 66 93 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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