576
FXUS64 KEPZ 160445
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1045 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- QUIET WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, BUT STILL
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID MAY.
- WINDY WEST WINDS AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CREATING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- SOME MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN AREAS MIDWEEK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..SATURDAY & SUNDAY
BROAD, LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CONUS WILL OVERLAY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST LOBE OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS ON SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO
THAT, 993MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO WITH
SUFFICIENT SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
ON SUNDAY, STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERLAY THE REGION. SUB-
990MB SURFACE LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO WITH
STRONG SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE TIGHTLY PACKED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE.
..MONDAY & TUESDAY
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY TREK ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY. SWERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVERLAYING THE REGION WITH SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN AT 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 90 DEGREES.
..REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION MIDWEEK. AS IT DOES,
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A WEAK LOW/TROUGH SETTING UP OFF THE BAJA COAST.
AS IT DOES, WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PUSH THE
DRYLINE TOWARD THE RGV. ALWAYS SOME QUESTION WITH THE INITIAL
WESTWARD PUSH WITH THESE, BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THERE WILL
BE SOME STORM CHANCES AT LEAST IN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES.
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH COOLING EXCEPT OUT IN THE FAR EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOW-END BREEZY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
OUR OF THE W/SW AT 7-12 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH MIN RH'S OVER THE LOWLANDS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND WINDS PICKING UP TO AT LEAST 10-20G30 MPH DAILY WITH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WINDIEST DAYS WHEN CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SUNDAY, BUT SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE WITH WINDS JUST A LITTLE SHORT
OF CRITICAL SPEEDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONSTANTLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL. SOME MOISTURE
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE FAR EAST WED/THU AND BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 55 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 68 46 64 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 90 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 81 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 92 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 53 88 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 96 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 60 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 62 94 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 90 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 91 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 89 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 55 92 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 92 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 54 82 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 50 79 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 76 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 47 83 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 87 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 52 89 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 81 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 84 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 87 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 48 83 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 84 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 53 88 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 88 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 81 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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