987
FXUS64 KEPZ 300438
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1038 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY, RUNNING 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS 102 TO 108 EACH AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND.
- LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEXT FEW DAYS, FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A PATTERN SHIFT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE LOWLANDS
STARTING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS, LEADING TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF JULY. GFS 500-MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
SUGGEST THIS HIGH IS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN IS
TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON. THE PATTERN
IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN, AS ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY RECYCLED MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE/TERRAIN FORCING PRODUCING MEAGER LIFT. THE PRIMARY
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FOCUSED FURTHER WEST, MOSTLY OVER
SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT
TEMPERATURES. SUFFOCATING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE VERY HOT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
WILL RUN 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WHICH MEANS
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE 102 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EL PASO, THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON
THURSDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
DOWNTREND IN STORM CHANCES CONTINUES ON THURSDAY, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 0.9-1.1" RANGE (SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL). THE UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL ACT
AS A SUPPRESSANT FOR RAIN CHANCES. SUBSIDENT 500-MB FLOW WILL
CAUSE A WARMING EFFECT ALOFT AND EAT AWAY AT POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY. SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY STILL
SEE ISOLATED (10-30% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY.
RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE A
RETROGRADE MANEUVER, SHIFTING WEST OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EL PASO
REGION. PW'S IN THE 1.3-1.5" RANGE SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY,
ALLOWING FOR MORE SCATTERED (50-70% COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST FRIDAY COULD BE A HIGH
FLOODING RISK WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS, FOLLOWED BY A HIGHER
SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY GIVEN NORTH FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL 0-6KM
SHEAR.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER AGAIN, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUB-ADVISORY (LOWLANDS HIGHS 98-102). NEXT WEEK'S RAIN CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO FAVOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO, WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TULAROSA BASIN
STAYING DRY MOST EVENINGS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT
SURFACE WINDS FOR KELP/KLRU 080-130 AOB 8 KNOTS. NO DIRECT TS
IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSRA OVER MTNS AND W NM.
SKIES FEW-SCT100 AT LOCAL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE HOTTEST OF THE
SUMMER AS THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE 103-108 RANGE. RH'S WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 10 PERCENT FOR THE LOWLANDS AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. STORM COVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN RECENT DAYS, BUT AT LEAST
ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER NM
SHIFTS INTO AZ BY THE WEEKEND AND BRINGS A RETURN TO THE PATTERN
SIMILAR TO A WEEK OR TWO AGO WITH NORTHEAST FLOW HELPING STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING ONTO THE LOWLANDS
STARTING FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AREAWIDE. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TO NEAR 100 FOR THE
LOWLANDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH RH'S ON THE RISE. SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER
BEFORE DAILY STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 104 78 106 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 68 101 70 104 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 72 103 75 104 / 10 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 72 102 75 104 / 10 10 10 20
CLOUDCROFT 54 78 56 79 / 10 30 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 102 77 102 / 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 65 95 68 97 / 10 10 10 50
DEMING 72 104 76 105 / 0 0 20 10
LORDSBURG 71 102 74 104 / 10 10 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 105 80 106 / 10 0 10 0
DELL CITY 71 103 73 106 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 76 107 77 109 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 70 98 72 99 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 75 104 77 106 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 75 104 76 105 / 10 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 104 79 106 / 10 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 74 105 76 106 / 10 0 10 10
HATCH 74 106 76 107 / 10 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 75 105 78 106 / 0 0 20 0
OROGRANDE 71 102 72 104 / 10 0 10 10
MAYHILL 59 90 62 91 / 10 20 10 60
MESCALERO 59 90 61 92 / 10 30 10 50
TIMBERON 57 88 60 89 / 10 20 10 50
WINSTON 63 93 64 93 / 0 30 10 50
HILLSBORO 71 100 72 100 / 0 10 10 30
SPACEPORT 72 103 74 104 / 10 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 60 95 62 96 / 10 20 10 60
HURLEY 67 99 71 100 / 0 10 10 40
CLIFF 68 104 71 104 / 10 10 10 40
MULE CREEK 66 98 68 100 / 10 0 10 30
FAYWOOD 69 98 71 99 / 0 10 10 40
ANIMAS 72 102 74 105 / 10 10 20 0
HACHITA 71 102 74 104 / 10 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 102 72 104 / 10 10 30 0
CLOVERDALE 66 95 68 99 / 20 20 30 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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