646
FXUS64 KEPZ 090344
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
944 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 939 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING LOWLAND HIGHS TO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INTO NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT COOLING ON MONDAY.
- OTHER THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 939 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER ON THE FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
THIS WEEKEND. A TOUCH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN CU GROWTH SAT AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. SCATTERED
VIRGA SHOWERS ARE MODELED WITH A FEW SPRINKLES IF THE RAIN OVERCOMES
THE DRY LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OUTSIDE OF ANY
GUSTY (30 MPH) VIRGA SHOWERS.
A BACKDOOR FRONT NUDGES INTO EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY ON SUN,
BRINGING BREEZY E WINDS AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION
OVER THE SACS SUN AFTERNOON AND VIRGA SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. 18Z REFS
PAINTBALLS INDICATE THE CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WEST SLOPES WILL
SEE GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 MPH SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES WEST,
REACHING AZ BY EARLY MON AM.
WINDS RELAX ON MON AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES OVERHEAD, RESULTING
IN CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD LIMIT MOST CONVECTION THROUGH WED WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
OVER AREA MTNS. THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE WEST COAST. SOME MOISTURE IS LIFTED
NORTHWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THU AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM,
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE MAIN LOW PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK AS MODEST ZONAL FLOW SETS UP
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR MON DUE TO MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 939 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY SKC
THROUGH THE AM WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS AND KTCS. WINDS AOB 8KTS THROUGH THE AM, INCREASING
SLIGHTLY FROM W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
LOW TO ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
THE EAST WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT PUSHES WEST ACROSS
MOST OF THE FIRE ZONES. THESE WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAC MTNS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
LOW HUMIDITIES AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
GRADUALLY DRYING OUT FUELS. ERCS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S
PERCENT BY MID-WEEK.
MIN RH: LOWLAND 8-13% THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT 12-20% MONDAY.
GILA/BLACK RANGE 8-15% THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT 15-23% MONDAY.
SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MTNS 10-20% THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT 15-30%
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 59 95 67 94 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 51 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 52 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 44 68 49 65 / 0 0 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 52 85 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 95 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 94 66 93 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 51 93 56 88 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 55 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 56 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 54 92 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 64 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 53 91 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 94 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 95 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 54 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 47 82 54 74 / 0 0 0 40
MESCALERO 46 79 52 75 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 45 77 51 73 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 46 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 57 89 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 51 91 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 85 51 84 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 52 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 49 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 49 87 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 88 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 91 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 56 91 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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