383
FXUS64 KEPZ 071144
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
544 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 502 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
- A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES
MOISTURE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
- MOISTURE SNEAKS BACK IN FROM THE EAST, WITH A POSSIBLE DRY LINE
MOVING IN TO SPARK SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY, WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL CLOSED LOW OVER SE ARIZONA IS
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT SHOWERS, MOSTLY FROM THE RG VALLEY EAST. THE UPPER LOW AND
MAIN TROUGH PASS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RACING
UNDER THE BASE OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY WILL
TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN IMPORTING
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIP
BUT I THINK THIS IS OVERDONE.
A MORE RELIABLE PUSH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BAJA, TURNING LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHEAST AND ENABLING
GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE TO SEEP TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL SMALL
SHORT-WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SHOULD AID IN RAIN
CHANCES. THE LOW EVENTUALLY LIFTS ARIZONA AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY, FOR ONE LAST PUSH OF SHOWERS BEFORE A MORE SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GFS SHOWS MODEST
INSTABILITY EACH OF THESE DAYS, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR KTCS, PUSHING EAST.
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF KTCS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY
THE AFTERNOON, DRIFTING E-SE INTO THE EVENING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN -SHRA DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AT KTCS, THEN KLRU. A FEW TSRA
MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN
TAFS. GUSTS TO 30KTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS LATER TODAY. MAINLY DRY
FOR KDMN AND KELP, BUT A SHOWER/STORM MAY DRIFT TOWARDS THOSE
TERMINALS. CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 10KFT BEFORE CLEARING OUT
THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS TODAY. DRIER WITH
MODESTLY BREEZY WINDS INTO THURSDAY, CREATING SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK,
SPARKING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRI/SAT, MOSTLY EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE FROM THE W-SW STARTING ON SAT, CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHS SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING
ON THE STORM TRACK. TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER NEAR-AVERAGE TODAY.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 25-55% TODAY, THEN 12-25% THROUGH THU. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR TO GOOD TODAY, IMPROVING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT
BY FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 82 57 86 / 10 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 43 79 51 81 / 10 0 10 30
LAS CRUCES 46 79 50 83 / 10 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 40 80 45 84 / 20 10 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 34 58 40 63 / 30 10 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 80 52 83 / 20 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 44 75 48 77 / 10 0 0 10
DEMING 47 82 51 85 / 10 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 45 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 82 58 86 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 42 82 48 86 / 10 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 47 87 55 89 / 10 0 10 20
LOMA LINDA 46 75 53 80 / 20 0 0 10
FABENS 48 85 55 88 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 47 81 53 85 / 10 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 81 57 85 / 20 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 39 81 42 84 / 20 0 0 10
HATCH 41 83 43 87 / 20 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 50 83 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 80 42 83 / 20 0 0 10
MAYHILL 37 71 42 74 / 30 10 0 30
MESCALERO 36 70 41 73 / 30 10 0 30
TIMBERON 37 67 42 71 / 30 10 0 20
WINSTON 37 73 40 74 / 20 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 48 78 51 81 / 20 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 38 81 40 83 / 20 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 37 75 40 77 / 10 0 0 20
HURLEY 43 77 46 80 / 10 0 0 10
CLIFF 38 83 38 83 / 10 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 36 78 36 80 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 45 77 50 80 / 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 47 82 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 82 51 84 / 0 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 77 53 78 / 0 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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