000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261757
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1157 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1119 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR RIO GRANDE VALLEY BELOW EL PASO
THROUGH HUDSPETH COUNTY UNTIL 9 PM MDT.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK MOST AFTERNOONS
BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY,
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE WHOLE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR THE BORDERLAND, BUT WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH DRIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. GRANTED, IT IS STILL HOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST OF EL PASO,
TX UNTIL 9 PM MDT TONIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS, SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE MOUNTAINS (PARTICULARLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS), WHERE
ISOLATED (25-35%) THUNDERSTORMS, BY WAY OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT, COULD
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORM-GENERATED OUTFLOWS
HITTING EL PASO AND WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THOUGH THEY SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION.
THE MOST RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.2"
FOR THURSDAY, AND THE LATEST MESOSCALE AND NBM RUNS HAVE SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY'S PWAT
VALUES ARE ABOUT THE SAME, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE LOWLAND TEMPERATURES COOL TO AT OR JUST BELOW THE 100-DEGREE
MARK. AS THE WEEKEND ROLLS IN, THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST,
SETTING UP A STRONG MONSOONAL PATTERN. THE CATCH IS THAT MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ARIZONA-NEW
MEXICO BORDER, WHICH MEANS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE LOWLANDS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT SOME OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHERN NM COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS.
AS IT STANDS, WE ARE SEEING A WEST COAST TROUGH COMING IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WILL GIVE WESTERN NEW MEXICO A GOOD SHOT OF MONSOONAL
RAIN. BUT BY LATE NEXT WEEK, THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE AS TO HOW
MUCH MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH.
THE GFS IS TRENDING WETTER FOR THE BORDERLAND LATE NEXT WEEK, WHILE
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING DRIER (WHICH IS WHAT WE CURRENTLY EXPECT TO
OCCUR). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHICH TRACK THE MODELS WILL
EVENTUALLY AGREE ON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OBSERVATION PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST (130-160) WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 10 KT
(AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT). THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS FROM 18Z-22Z.
THESE OUTFLOWS WILL REACH EAST EL PASO IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (04Z-
06Z) AND CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. NO TS EXPECTED FOR THE FOUR TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE REGION, WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS, AND THE MID 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
IT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MOST OF THE REGION, BY ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO, AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE
PREVAILING WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORM-GENERATED OUTFLOWS UP TO 50 MPH.
VENTILATION RATES FOR THE AREA WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BETTER MOISTURE IS IN STORE
FOR THE LOWLANDS TOMORROW BEFORE RETREATING TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 102 75 100 / 0 10 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 97 67 95 / 0 20 10 10
LAS CRUCES 72 100 71 99 / 0 0 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 99 69 97 / 10 20 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 54 75 52 73 / 20 40 30 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 73 99 72 98 / 10 10 30 0
SILVER CITY 68 94 66 93 / 0 20 20 30
DEMING 72 102 72 100 / 0 0 20 0
LORDSBURG 73 101 73 100 / 0 10 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 79 101 77 99 / 0 0 30 0
DELL CITY 71 100 70 98 / 10 20 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 76 104 74 102 / 10 10 20 10
LOMA LINDA 70 94 68 92 / 0 20 30 0
FABENS 74 102 73 100 / 10 10 20 0
SANTA TERESA 74 100 73 98 / 0 0 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 101 74 99 / 10 10 30 0
JORNADA RANGE 73 100 71 98 / 10 10 30 0
HATCH 73 104 72 102 / 10 0 30 0
COLUMBUS 75 103 75 101 / 0 0 20 0
OROGRANDE 71 98 69 96 / 10 10 30 10
MAYHILL 58 87 57 86 / 20 60 40 60
MESCALERO 57 87 56 85 / 10 40 30 70
TIMBERON 57 84 55 83 / 20 50 30 60
WINSTON 63 91 60 90 / 10 30 20 40
HILLSBORO 71 99 69 97 / 10 20 30 10
SPACEPORT 71 100 70 98 / 10 0 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 92 60 91 / 10 40 20 70
HURLEY 68 97 67 95 / 0 20 20 10
CLIFF 70 102 69 100 / 10 20 20 30
MULE CREEK 68 98 67 96 / 10 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 70 96 69 94 / 0 20 30 10
ANIMAS 72 102 72 100 / 0 10 10 0
HACHITA 72 100 71 98 / 0 0 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 70 100 70 99 / 0 0 10 0
CLOVERDALE 68 96 68 94 / 0 10 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
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