746
FXUS64 KEPZ 181709
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1109 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
- COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SOME DECENT NORTH WINDS
BEHIND IT. CONTINUED PRESSURE RISES JUST EAST OF OUR AREA SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO TURN MORE EAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS
EAST/SOUTHEAST STARTING EARLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME LATER SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH DURING THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS.
THIS SURGE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. ALOFT, A WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE
BAJA, WILL MOVE UP TO THE CWA LATER SUNDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING, THOUGH MOSTLY
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN TUESDAY BEHIND
THE EXITING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL FLUSH MOISTURE OUT OF THE
CWA AND CLEAR THE SKIES. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES TO NOCAL TUESDAY,
GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY, AND THEN CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY. THIS USHERS IN A STRETCH OF DRY, WARM WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY. BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, INCREASING THURSDAY TO WEST
20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS DIMINISHING SOME FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT STILL BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS. FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY WORSEN THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. AFTER
12Z...INCREASING SCT150 BKN250. SURFACE WINDS EAST 10-15G25 KNOTS.
AFTER 03Z...WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG WEST
SLOPES OF TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
EXPECT MORE MOISTURE SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY; MOSTLY SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FROM TUESDAY ON BECOMES MORE TYPICAL SPRING
WEATHER WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS, WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOONS. WEST WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY TO 15-25 MPH AND
THEN PEAK ON THURSDAY AT 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY-STILL BREEZY THOUGH. FIRE
CONDITIONS AFTER TUESDAY WILL BECOME ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 15-25% SUNDAY/MONDAY DECREASING TO 8-13% TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 20-35% SUNDAY/MONDAY DECREASING TO 10-20%
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VENT RATES GOOD-VERY GOOD SUNDAY/MONDAY
BECOMING MOSTLY EXCELLENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 71 51 80 / 0 30 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 44 66 43 75 / 0 40 30 30
LAS CRUCES 44 70 46 77 / 0 20 20 10
ALAMOGORDO 40 75 45 78 / 0 10 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 28 54 33 59 / 0 10 40 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 73 51 76 / 0 10 20 30
SILVER CITY 40 67 44 73 / 0 10 10 20
DEMING 46 73 46 80 / 0 20 10 10
LORDSBURG 48 72 47 80 / 0 10 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 70 53 80 / 0 30 20 10
DELL CITY 42 69 44 77 / 0 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 50 72 49 83 / 0 40 30 30
LOMA LINDA 44 65 45 73 / 0 30 30 20
FABENS 51 72 50 82 / 0 30 20 20
SANTA TERESA 48 70 48 78 / 0 20 20 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 48 73 50 79 / 0 20 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 42 73 43 78 / 0 20 20 20
HATCH 41 75 45 81 / 0 20 20 10
COLUMBUS 51 73 49 82 / 0 30 10 10
OROGRANDE 42 70 45 77 / 0 20 30 20
MAYHILL 30 62 37 68 / 0 10 30 30
MESCALERO 32 64 36 68 / 0 10 30 40
TIMBERON 33 59 36 65 / 0 10 40 30
WINSTON 32 65 38 69 / 0 10 10 40
HILLSBORO 42 70 46 76 / 0 20 20 20
SPACEPORT 37 73 44 77 / 0 10 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 31 69 38 73 / 0 10 20 30
HURLEY 40 68 41 75 / 0 10 10 10
CLIFF 32 76 42 80 / 0 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 28 73 39 77 / 0 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 42 68 44 74 / 0 20 20 20
ANIMAS 49 73 46 81 / 0 10 10 10
HACHITA 47 71 44 79 / 0 20 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 73 45 80 / 0 20 10 10
CLOVERDALE 48 71 46 76 / 0 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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