603
FXUS64 KEPZ 171825
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1125 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AHEAD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GILA/BLACK RANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN PACIFIC WILL FLATTEN OUT TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO VERY STRONG JET SWEEPING ACROSS THE NW U.S. RESULTING
ZONAL FLOW LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY, RESULTING IN DRY FORECAST
WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS EVERY
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM, VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO HAS
BROUGHT SOME CIRRUS INTO THE AREA BUT IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CWA. THUS DON'T EXPECT
CIRRUS TO EVEN BECOME BROKEN TODAY.
ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH
EVENTUALLY FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORT
WAVE DROPPING INTO THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DIG MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH AND DEVELOP GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY.
THUS EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS WEST OF
DEMING COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME HOPE OF RAIN CHANCES ALL AREAS BY NEXT
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHWEST/WEST 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH 03Z, THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AOB
7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
LITTLE OR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE CONTINUE UNDER THE DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. VERY WARM (NEAR-RECORD) TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED INTO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENDANT LOWER MIN RHS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 13-20% THROUGH TUESDAY. MOUNTAINS 15-25% THROUGH
TUESDAY. VENT RATES POOR-FAIR THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 71 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 41 69 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 37 68 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 33 68 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 52 35 54 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 66 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 39 67 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 38 71 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 35 69 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 70 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 33 71 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 39 74 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 42 65 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 39 72 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 38 69 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 27 68 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 33 71 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 43 72 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 29 67 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 66 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 35 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 32 62 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 35 65 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 68 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 29 68 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 27 68 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 37 68 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 25 71 28 74 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 20 69 23 71 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 38 71 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 37 70 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 73 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 44 68 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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