396
FXUS64 KEPZ 270445
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
945 PM MST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 938 PM MST WED NOV 26 2025
- DRY WEATHER, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS, MILD TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK, INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 938 PM MST WED NOV 26 2025
FOR TURKEY DAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUING. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS TEMPS HOLD ABOVE NORMAL.
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL US ON SATURDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH ARRIVES IN OUR AREA
THAT EVENING. THE COLD AIR/WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT THROUGH SUNDAY, SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH STAYS OVER THE
MIDWEST. GUSTY WINDS (TO 25 MPH) CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WEST
SLOPES OF MTNS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO GET PAST THE
RGV. TEMPERATURES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING BY TUE.
IT SEEMS LIKE THE STORM TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO GIVE US MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY, BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PART OF NM. WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY IN OUR CWA
WITH BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. THERE'S A
VERY LOW CHANCE (<20%) OF MTN SNOW SHOWERS MON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 938 PM MST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AOB 6KTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY. CIRRUS SHIELD SHIFTS OVERHEAD FROM
THE WEST BY THE EARLY MORNING, PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 936 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS AND
LIGHT WINDS, WHICH WILL YIELD POOR VENT RATES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
ON FRIDAY OUTSIDE THE TULAROSA BASIN AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES
OVER. WEEKEND PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DISSIPATED. A FAST MOVING
TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY,
AND WE'RE HANGING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS IT PASSES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 46 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 41 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 64 40 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 40 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 31 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 40 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 38 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 38 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 37 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 47 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 38 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 46 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 63 43 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 70 44 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 65 42 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 46 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 64 38 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 66 38 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 67 41 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 65 41 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 60 34 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 61 33 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 56 33 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 57 32 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 62 41 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 62 37 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 64 34 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 36 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 69 35 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 65 36 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 61 40 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 38 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 36 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 39 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 44 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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