886
FXUS64 KEPZ 141138
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
438 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 421 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
- COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED THIS MORNING, DROPPING TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 8 TO 15 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS UP TO
35 MPH ALONG WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
ONE LAST DAY OF RECORD/NEAR-RECORD TEMPS BEFORE WE REVERT BACK TO
COOLER WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS. AGAIN, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
QUITE AWHILE, THE EASTERN PACIFIC/DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOSTLY REMAIN INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESSING WEST. FRONT SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON IR IMAGERY AND COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBS, EXTENDS FROM
ABOUT RATON-VAUGHN-CARLSBAD. THIS IS MOSTLY A WIND SHIFT WITH VERY
LITTLE AIRMASS DIFFERENCE. THE COLD AIR AND DEVELOPING STRATUS
RESIDE FURTHER EAST WITH THE LEAD EDGE FROM CLAYTON-TUCUMCARI
EASTWARD. HRRR/GFS/NAM12 ALL IN GOOD TIMING AGREEMENT, BRINGING
THE FRONT (WIND SHIFT) TO THE EASTERN SACS IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS; THEN OVER THE RG VALLEY BY 06-08Z AND OUT TO THE ARIZONA
BORDER BY 15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE
STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF WINDS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SILVER CITY-LAS
CRUCES-TIMBERON FROM 06Z-18Z. WEST SLOPES OF TERRAIN IN THIS
GENERAL AREA COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. SOME STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD FORM ALONG THE EASTERN SACS OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS COOLS
AND SATURATES. DON'T EXPECT ANY DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA AND CLOUDS
SHOULD BURN OFF/DISSIPATE BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING
TO WATCH...GUSTY WINDS WEST OF LORDSBURG COULD STIR UP SOME PLAYA
DUST SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE LOOKS LIKE A QUIET FORECAST PERIOD AFTER SUNDAY. WEAK
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOCAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA WILL SWEEP
THROUGH, BRINGING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY, BUT STILL JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
STRONG JET ENTERS THE NW U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FLATTENING
OUT THE UPPER RIDGE INTO A ZONAL FLOW. THUS EXPECT A RAPID WARMUP
TUESDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY WED-SAT, WITH HIGHS BACK TO NEAR RECORD-
LEVELS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW STRATUS IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL NOT REACH THE TAF SITES BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, SCT-BKN250 PASS OVERHEAD.
E-NE WINDS AROUND 10KTS PERSIST THIS MORNING, RELAXING DURING THE
DAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS AM,
SHIFTING WINDS E-NE WITH SOME GUSTINESS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG WEST
MTN SLOPES. WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RHS DURING THE
DAY AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE SACS EARLY THIS
MORNING. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FROM THIS FRONT TODAY AS HIGH
CLOUDS PASS BY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK (ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE) AS LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL. FUELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-DEC
DUE TO THE DRY PATTERN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 25-45% THROUGH MON, 15-25% IN FWZ110; THEN
12-25% BY WED. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 64 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 34 61 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 31 63 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 29 48 31 48 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 37 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 35 65 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 37 65 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 62 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 29 61 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 35 59 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 37 64 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 61 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 25 63 25 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 31 65 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 63 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 25 61 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 32 64 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 30 59 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 29 56 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 29 62 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 64 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 25 62 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 24 66 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 34 64 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 23 70 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 19 67 22 67 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 37 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 36 65 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 35 63 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 65 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 39 66 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page