074
FXUS64 KEPZ 221659
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1059 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
- DECREASING STORM CHANCES TO END THE WORKWEEK, FAVORING AREA
MOUNTAINS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SACRAMENTO'S DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS.
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND, MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SETTLES TO THE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, PWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WITH VALUES OF 1.3-1.5" MODELED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT GAVE US SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY. IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, FOCUSING OVER AREA MTNS WITH SLOW STORM
MOTION TO THE NORTH. RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SACS HAS SATURATED
THE SOILS, HEIGHTENING THE FLOOD RISK TODAY. RAINFALL UP TO 1.5" IS
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO THE HREF/REFS, FAVORING THE AREA AROUND
MESCALERO IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHERE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MOST
SEVERE THIS WEEK UNFORTUNATELY. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY TODAY WITH
SPOTTY LOWLAND SHOWERS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PWS FALL TO ABOUT 1" TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS
WESTWARD, KEEPING MOST OF US DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN AREA MTNS AND OUT WEST. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
DECREASE FOR THU. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH LOWLAND HIGHS OF
95-100F.
THE UPPER HIGH HOLDS STEADY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS OF 100-
105F ARE FORECAST FROM FRI ONWARD WITH POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORIES FOR
THE LOWER RGV, INCLUDING EL PASO. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE SIGNALING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH TO REACH OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH PWS AROUND 1.2-1.3", MAYBE LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AREA MTNS AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED LOWLAND ACTIVITY IN THE
EVENING HOURS. STORM CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPOTTY
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ALL TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND 10%. LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY
BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONVECTION DISSIPATES BY SUNSET.
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15-20KTS FROM S, THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM
CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OVER AREA MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. SATURATED SOILS WILL
INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN FWZ113 WHERE FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT. RAIN RATES WILL BE LOWER TODAY THAN THEY'VE
BEEN RECENTLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER RHS THAN
YESTERDAY. LOW STORM CHANCES OVER THE GILA AND LINCOLN THROUGH
FRI, THEN MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. HOTTER TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE
WEEKEND, REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 25-50% TODAY, FALLING TO 15-30% BY FRI. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 101 78 103 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 95 70 98 / 10 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 70 98 71 101 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 99 75 102 / 10 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 53 75 55 77 / 20 10 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 98 73 100 / 10 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 64 89 66 93 / 10 0 0 10
DEMING 70 99 70 102 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 69 96 71 99 / 10 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 100 78 102 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 100 73 102 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 102 76 104 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 92 71 95 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 74 101 75 103 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 98 74 100 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 99 79 102 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 73 98 74 101 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 72 101 73 104 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 74 99 74 102 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 70 98 72 101 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 87 60 89 / 20 10 0 20
MESCALERO 57 86 59 89 / 20 10 0 20
TIMBERON 56 84 58 87 / 10 0 0 10
WINSTON 60 88 62 91 / 20 20 10 20
HILLSBORO 68 95 70 98 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 70 98 70 100 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 91 60 94 / 10 10 10 20
HURLEY 64 93 66 97 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 66 95 67 99 / 10 10 10 10
MULE CREEK 64 91 66 95 / 20 10 10 10
FAYWOOD 66 93 68 96 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 69 95 71 98 / 10 10 0 0
HACHITA 68 95 69 99 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 95 70 99 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 91 67 93 / 20 10 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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