321
FXUS64 KEPZ 291156
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
556 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN MIDWEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CIRRUS ALOFT
AND CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF FROM THIS EVENING'S STORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRES. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
..SUNDAY
UPPER HIGH THAT BROUGHT RECORD-SETTING WARMTH TO THE REGION LAST
WEEK HAS SHIFTED EAST, AND WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE GULF STATES ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE THE
PREVAILING PATTERN LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SWATH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH OVER SONORA AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
INSTABILITY ALOFT, WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY OVER THE SIERRA MADRES AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEW MEXICO
BOOTHEEL. OTHERWISE, THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS TOMORROW.
..MONDAY
PLUME OF MOISTURE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE
(15-30%) OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON.
ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. MONDAY WILL
ALSO BE WARMER, PUSHING LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER
80S.
..TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MUCH MORE OPEN FLOW REGIME ALOFT MIDWEEK, MORE TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME IN THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAST-MOVING,
QUICK-HITTING SYSTEMS THAT SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
MOVE ON SWIFTLY. LEE SURFACE LOW FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL ALSO BRING DAILY AFTERNOON BREEZES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AHEAD.
FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS PEAK GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE, SO NO WIND HEADLINES EXPECTED. FOR WEDNESDAY, A FAST-
MOVING WAVE ALOFT WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO, BRINGING ANOTHER SLIM
WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-25%). BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE FURTHER NORTH TOWARD ALBUQUERQUE AND THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. MORE NOTABLE FOR US WILL BE ANOTHER UPTICK IN WIND
SPEEDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST.
..THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
DRIER AIR RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY SEEING
ANY CONCERNING WIND SPEEDS ANY PARTICULAR DAY, SO NOT ANTICIPATING
WIND HEADLINES THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL, WHICH MEANS LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-TO-MID 80S. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT INTRUSION
AGAIN SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER THIS ONE LOOKS DRIER AND
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS. COULD LEAD TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND
WEATHER-WISE AND A NICE EASTER SUNDAY FOR EL PASO AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUED
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK, FIRST
CHANCE BEING MONDAY AND THE SECOND BEING WEDNESDAY. NEITHER DAY
LOOKS LIKE A WASH OUT OR ANYTHING, THIS WILL FEATURE HIT AND MISS
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS/RAIN MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
DRY LIGHTNING AND SOME WIND GUSTS THAT AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BUT THERE'S A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
GILA REGION AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO BE FOCUSED ON THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND THE GILA REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
MIN RHS: 11-18% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 18-22% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS
TODAY. RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WILL INCREASE MIN RHS TO AROUND 15-20%
IN THE LOWLANDS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND 20-25% IN THE GILA
REGION, ELSEWHERE WILL SEE SIMILAR MIN RHS TO WHAT WE'LL SEE TODAY
EAST OF THE RIVER. RHS INCREASE TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO 15-20% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 25-35% IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT ALMOST ALL LOWLAND LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOUNTAIN MIN RHS
20-25%.
20 FOOT WINDS: LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW AT 5-10
MPH. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZIER WITH WEST WINDS AT
10-15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS DURING THAT TIME FRAME
COMBINED WITH CRITICAL MIN RHS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 56 89 61 87 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 85 54 82 / 0 0 20 0
LAS CRUCES 52 85 54 83 / 0 10 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 87 51 83 / 0 10 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 44 65 42 60 / 0 10 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 84 56 83 / 10 20 20 10
SILVER CITY 51 76 49 74 / 10 30 20 10
DEMING 54 86 54 84 / 0 20 20 10
LORDSBURG 52 82 51 81 / 10 30 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 87 61 85 / 0 0 20 0
DELL CITY 49 89 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 53 92 56 89 / 0 0 20 0
LOMA LINDA 54 82 55 79 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 54 90 58 88 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 52 87 56 83 / 0 10 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 88 59 86 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 87 49 84 / 0 10 20 10
HATCH 49 89 51 87 / 0 10 20 10
COLUMBUS 59 87 58 86 / 10 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 51 86 52 83 / 0 10 10 0
MAYHILL 48 78 47 74 / 0 10 10 10
MESCALERO 44 76 43 72 / 0 10 30 10
TIMBERON 46 74 46 70 / 0 10 10 10
WINSTON 44 76 43 75 / 10 30 20 10
HILLSBORO 54 82 53 81 / 10 20 20 10
SPACEPORT 48 85 47 83 / 10 10 20 10
LAKE ROBERTS 46 76 45 73 / 10 40 20 10
HURLEY 50 79 48 78 / 10 20 20 10
CLIFF 48 83 47 81 / 10 30 20 10
MULE CREEK 50 79 47 76 / 10 40 20 10
FAYWOOD 53 80 51 78 / 10 20 20 10
ANIMAS 54 82 52 82 / 10 40 30 10
HACHITA 53 82 51 81 / 10 30 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 82 52 81 / 20 40 30 10
CLOVERDALE 54 77 52 76 / 20 50 40 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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