402
FXUS64 KEPZ 061722
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1122 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
- ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING, WITH STORMS
SPREADING TO THE LOWLANDS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN MOUNTAIN AREAS STARTING TUESDAY
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOWLANDS WILL ALSO SEE
ISOLATED STORMS EACH DAY AS OUTFLOW WINDS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE THE
BETTER STORM COVERAGE.
- BY WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE LOWLANDS WITH 100-105 DEGREES COMMON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE STARTS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 7 DAYS WITH THE PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CURRENTLY WE HAVE A RIDGE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS STATES THAT WILL BE GETTING FLATTENED AND
RETROGRADE OFF INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INITIALLY WE WILL GET
SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO EASTERN ZONES AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS.
LOOKS LIKE THE GILA WILL HAVE DAILY SCATTERED STORMS WITH OUTFLOWS
HELPING ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE-THU. AS WE
GO INTO FRI AND THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH OVER CO/WY
AND THIS ALLOWS FOR A DEEPER ESE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING IN
SOME GULF MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
THIS IS EVEN SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AT DAY
7, SO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PLAYING OUT AS DEPICTED IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
WITH THIS SHIFTING RIDGE, THE DRIER AIR EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP BACK INTO THE 100-105 RANGE FOR MOST
OF THE LOWLANDS. NBM AND ESPECIALLY MET TEMPS SEEMED LOW AND DID
RAISE UP CLOSER TO THE MAV. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT THINK HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY, BUT SOME AREAS OF THE LOWER RGV
COULD GET TO 105.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250 THROUGH 06Z THEN GRADUALLY
BECOMING SKC-SCT150 BY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GILA REGION, LESSER COVERAGE IN THE SACS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OUTFLOW WINDS HELPING DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE LOWLANDS. STRONGEST OUTFLOWS EXPECTED FROM KDMN WEST WHERE
BLOWING DUST COULD BE AN ISSUE IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. ANY
TERMINAL COULD SEE STORMS BUT ONLY FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE
WOULD BE STORMS AROUND KTCS AND KDMN WHERE VCTS INCLUDED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWLANDS WILL BE WARMING BACK UP INTO THE
100-105 RANGE WITH 80S AND 90S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS AN ELONGATED
UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE PATTERN. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE. RH'S WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW 20S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES INTO THE CO/WY AREA, EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND HELPS BRING SOME GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 101 76 101 / 20 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 95 66 95 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 98 68 100 / 20 0 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 68 96 69 100 / 10 30 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 50 73 50 74 / 10 40 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 98 70 98 / 30 20 10 10
SILVER CITY 64 91 65 92 / 60 50 30 50
DEMING 67 100 68 101 / 30 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 69 99 70 99 / 30 20 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 74 100 75 102 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 98 68 100 / 30 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 101 72 101 / 30 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 67 92 68 94 / 30 10 0 10
FABENS 73 101 73 103 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 97 71 100 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 98 76 101 / 30 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 68 97 69 100 / 30 10 10 0
HATCH 68 100 69 100 / 30 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 73 101 73 102 / 10 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 68 96 68 99 / 20 10 0 0
MAYHILL 57 85 59 86 / 10 20 10 20
MESCALERO 54 84 53 86 / 20 40 10 20
TIMBERON 53 82 51 82 / 20 20 0 20
WINSTON 59 88 59 90 / 30 50 30 50
HILLSBORO 67 94 68 96 / 40 30 20 20
SPACEPORT 66 95 66 98 / 20 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 88 58 90 / 40 70 30 60
HURLEY 65 94 64 95 / 50 30 30 40
CLIFF 61 96 63 97 / 60 60 30 40
MULE CREEK 59 95 61 95 / 40 70 30 50
FAYWOOD 65 92 65 93 / 40 20 20 40
ANIMAS 69 100 69 99 / 20 20 20 10
HACHITA 68 98 68 99 / 20 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 98 70 99 / 30 10 20 10
CLOVERDALE 66 93 66 93 / 30 20 20 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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