504
FXUS64 KEPZ 021912
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1212 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
- RECORD WARMTH THROUGH TUESDAY, 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO
CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS DEMING, TRUTH
OR CONSEQUENCES, AND EL PASO HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, WHICH WOULD SMASH RECORDS FOR TODAY BY 4 OR 5 DEGREES.
ACROSS THE BOARD, FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE VALLEYS, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS A
RESULT, MINOR HEAT-RISK RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY
AFFECTING SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT PROPER HYDRATION AND
COOLING.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS AT 700 MB
CRANK UP TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. DIURNAL
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. OVERALL,
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
ALTHOUGH ON THE LOWER END FOR SPRING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THESE
GUST MAY STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING DUST OVER TYPICAL
NUISANCE AREAS SUCH AS DEMING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO, BUT MOST OF THE BREEZIER
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. WINDS LESSEN BACK TO BELOW 10 MPH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, STILL ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND ON THURSDAY, WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AS A 90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD. MORE WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, CREATING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS AND INCREASED CHANCES OF BLOWING DUST. BREEZINESS
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, WITH ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
PERSISTING.
MODELS SEEM TO BE GETTING INTO A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM
THURSDAY'S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD,
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO
EJECT BACK EAST TOWARDS CHIHUAHUA, SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE BORDERLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXACT PATH AND LOCATION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM, AS WELL AS HOW FAST
IT WILL MOVE BACK EAST, IS STILL A MAJOR POINT OF UNCERTAINTY
AMONG CURRENT GUIDANCE. IN ANY CASE, THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE OF COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS, WITH POPS CURRENTLY AT
AROUND 35% FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR
KDMN, KLRU, AND KTCS. GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS MAY BE OBSERVED. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT FOR MOST SITES. WINDIER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN STRONGER
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BORDERLAND, AND EVEN AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ERCS WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE ELEVATED (50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 85 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 82 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 47 81 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 48 81 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 57 35 54 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 80 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 46 71 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 45 83 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 79 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 84 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 85 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 90 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 78 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 51 87 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 48 83 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 83 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 47 82 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 45 85 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 85 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 81 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 47 72 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 45 69 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 47 67 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 72 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 48 78 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 80 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 70 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 44 75 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 42 78 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 73 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 47 75 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 81 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 80 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 81 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 75 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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