425
FXUS64 KEPZ 251131
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS, AND
OF COURSE LIGHTNING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED TOMORROW, I'M NOT SAYING CANCEL
ANY OF THEM, BUT DEFINITELY HAVE A BACKUP INDOOR PLAN JUST TO BE
SAFE. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN AS THE BETTER LIFT AND DYNAMICS APPROACH THE
REGION WE WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WON'T BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, BUT WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
MOST OF THE ENERGY AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE
EAST.
ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR
THE AREA, BUT DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE ROLLING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT IT WILL
BE MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF LAS CRUCES. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE WILL HAVE A ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW
WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP US DRY AND HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE WEEKEND;
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LURK JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. RIGHT
NOW THE EXTENDED MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST, BUT IF SOME
MOISTURE SLIPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH POSSIBLE FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED.
CURRENT WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS,
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 18Z, WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND
ERRATIC/VRB IN DIRECTION, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
THREATS WITH STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES CURRENTLY SCT TO BKN AT 10-15 KFT, BECOMING SCT AT 10 KFT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
FOR TODAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RACE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SW. AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM MOISTURE WILL
WORK IN ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVE CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA, INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS,
ALONG WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL OVERLAY THE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING. MIN RH
VALUES ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 15 PERCENT AREAWIDE.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET BACK UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF DAILY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 86 61 89 / 40 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 81 53 84 / 70 20 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 83 52 87 / 40 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 80 55 86 / 60 40 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 58 41 64 / 80 60 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 81 54 86 / 60 30 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 77 49 80 / 20 10 0 0
DEMING 54 88 54 90 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 84 54 87 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 85 61 89 / 40 10 0 0
DELL CITY 55 81 53 88 / 80 40 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 89 58 93 / 70 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 78 55 82 / 60 20 0 0
FABENS 58 88 57 92 / 60 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 84 56 87 / 30 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 82 61 87 / 50 20 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 82 52 87 / 50 20 0 0
HATCH 54 86 52 90 / 50 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 88 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 80 54 85 / 50 30 10 0
MAYHILL 46 68 44 76 / 80 80 10 0
MESCALERO 45 68 44 75 / 80 60 10 0
TIMBERON 43 66 43 73 / 70 60 10 0
WINSTON 44 73 43 79 / 60 50 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 80 53 84 / 40 30 0 0
SPACEPORT 51 81 50 87 / 60 20 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 45 77 43 81 / 20 10 0 0
HURLEY 49 80 48 83 / 20 10 0 0
CLIFF 51 84 48 87 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 49 80 47 82 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 79 50 83 / 20 10 0 0
ANIMAS 54 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 85 55 87 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 85 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 79 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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