570
FXUS64 KEPZ 161122
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
422 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 350 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
- WE WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
THEN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES WILL BE NEAR DAILY
RECORDS FOR MID DECEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 849 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
A WEAK AND DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER AND WILL
BE TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE OUR WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND THAT WILL ALLOW AROUND 5 DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM MONDAY'S HIGHS. ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OUT OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND THAT WILL GIVE US
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB SO THAT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE OUR RECORD AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
TO THE EAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND WE WILL STAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING 13 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NO
REAL SIGN OF ANY CLOUDS LET ALONE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AT 3-7 KNOTS AND VRB THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, OUT OF THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WILL PROMOTE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EACH, BECOMING 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MIN RH
VALUES EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE BETWEEN 13-23 PERCENT THROUGH THE
WEEK. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AT AROUND 10 MPH EACH
DAY, GENERALLY VARIABLE AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. SMOKE VENTILATION
RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 39 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 35 64 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 32 65 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 50 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 66 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 37 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 71 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 68 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 39 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 29 69 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 35 71 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 39 61 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 35 69 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 34 66 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 31 66 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 32 70 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 71 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 33 63 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 32 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 31 61 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 29 59 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 30 67 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 39 69 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 32 66 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 66 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 35 68 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 32 71 30 72 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 34 68 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 38 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 37 71 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 34 70 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 73 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 66 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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