464
FXUS64 KEPZ 211704
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1004 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK, LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID SEVENTIES.
- INCREASING CLOUDS MIDWEEK WITH LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS FIXED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL KEEP THE POLAR JET FLOW DIVERTED WELL TO
OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS, DRY CONDITIONS AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
ABNORMAL WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER, AND WILL SHOW VERY LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S, WHICH WILL BREAK DAILY RECORDS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST HIGH OF 76 DEGREES FOR EL PASO ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WOULD BE THE WARMEST ON RECORD IF REALIZED (CURRENT
RECORD IS 75 DEGREES IN 1933).
PREVAILING FLOW PATTERN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK,
WITH THE STRONGER JET FLOW FIXED TO OUR WEST OVER CALIFORNIA. A
JET STREAK, TIMED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WILL MOVE ASHORE AND DOES LOOK
TO NUDGE TO JET FLOW EVER CLOSER. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR ARIZONA, BUT COULD ALSO SKIRT THE AZ/NM STATE LINE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW (15-30%) CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
AROUND LORDSBURG, MULE CREEK, AND GILA BUT LIKELY NO FURTHER EAST.
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EL PASO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, THOUGH
WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVERAGE MIDWEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.
THE BATTLE BETWEEN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
AND THE PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF STATES WILL DETERMINE
EL PASO'S WEATHER FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AND THE NEW YEAR'S
HOLIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE YEAR, BUT WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF FUTURE PACIFIC WAVES. NBM IS
ALSO SIGNALING A COOL DOWN AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
CLEAR SKIES TODAY UNDER LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
200-240 AOB 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD
DECEMBER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE DECEMBER. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. POOR VENTILATION AND MIN RH 15-25% TODAY AND MONDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT (15-30%) CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
GNF MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE AND BETTER RH
RECOVERIES AFTER WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT
IN GOOD VENTILATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 43 75 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 39 72 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 40 73 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 57 37 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 71 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 38 75 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 38 74 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 76 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 43 80 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 46 71 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 42 76 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 41 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 47 74 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 38 73 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 36 75 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 73 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 41 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 38 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 37 66 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 35 69 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 73 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 36 71 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 71 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 72 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 36 76 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 38 73 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 71 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 38 76 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 38 74 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 76 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 46 74 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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