546
FXUS64 KEPZ 190451
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
951 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 901 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE
AT ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA. WE ARE SEEING INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR
LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.
- SOME BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT, THEN WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY, WITH A DIP ON TUESDAY, WARMING BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 901 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
OUR STAGNANT BLOCKING PATTERN, OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE
U.S. WEST COAST CONTINUES, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAIR, AND DEFINITELY DRY. DEEP
NW AND W FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY, WITH INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE WHAT WILL BRING
CHANGES EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. A SHORTWAVE WILL CUT SE TO
OUR NE, AND ALLOW FOR A COLD POOL TO PUSH SW INTO OUR REGION LATE
IN THE DAY TOMORROW. OUR SACS AND OTERO MESA MAY SEE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TO CUT OFF AFTERNOON HEATING, FOR A COOLER
DAY, BUT MOST OF OUR REGION WILL SEE NOTICEABLE WARMING WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FAVORING WINDS. THOSE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT
NE AND E, WITH SOME MODERATE INCREASES IN SPEEDS AND GUSTS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSH WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ADVANCE WEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
WESTWARD. THE OTERO MESA, WACO MTNS, AND SPREADING WEST INTO THE
FRANKLIN AND ORGAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME BREEZY AND GUSTY EAST
WINDS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH. THE
FRONTAL FEATURE WILL HAVE NO MOISTURE TO BRING OR WORK WITH, SO NO
PRECIPITATION FOR US WITH THE PASSAGE. THE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND KEEP TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER, AND
JUST ABOUT AT THE DAILY AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE FAIR WEATHER DAYS, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SLOWLY ERODING AND SHIFTING OVER OUR REGION.
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL, DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS, AND LIGHTER WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO A S OR W
DIRECTION. WEDNESDAY, THE LOOKS TO BE A WEAKER PUSH FROM THE
PLAINS, BUT IT LOOKS TO BE ALMOST TOTALLY INCONSEQUENTIAL, AND
HARDLY WORTH A MENTION. THURSDAY, WE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS, MOVING IN FROM THE SW, AS THE NEXT UPPER
LOW STORM SYSTEM FORMS OFF THE BAJA, AND SCOOPS AND STEERS
MOISTURE BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS.
FINALLY, THE GOOD STUFF...THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. LAST NIGHT WE WERE DOWNPLAYING THIS, BUT MODELS ARE COMING
INTO AGREEMENT IN A PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY,
WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING THIS PERIOD
OF PRECIP POTENTIAL TO THE ENTIRE CWFA, DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT, TRACK, AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. AS OF NOW, THE NBM IS
KEEPING THE COLD AIR OVER THE RGV AND EAST, AND EVEN THEN, KEEPING
SNOW LEVELS ABOVE THE DESERT FLOORS AND VALLEYS. THUS, IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A LOWLAND RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SCENARIO. IT
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE MEANINGFUL QPF POTENTIAL, SO WE WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE LAST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST GOING
FORWARD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 901 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS, AND ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE A MIX OF PASSING
FEW-SCT250 AND SKC. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 933 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHER THAN MODESTLY BREEZY WINDS (AROUND 10 MPH AT 20 FEET) IN
FWZ113, LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FAIR SKIES.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FOR MON, SHIFTING EAST BY THE EVENING BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEST MTN SLOPES INTO
TUE AM, RELAXING DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. WARMER FOR
WED-FRI AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL MAYBE NEXT
WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-20% TODAY, RISING TO 20-30% IN FWZ113 ON
MON; THEN 15-30% AREA-WIDE TUE. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 34 63 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 32 62 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 29 59 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 28 59 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 43 20 40 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 59 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 34 60 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 28 64 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 64 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 36 62 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 22 60 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 31 68 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 58 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 30 65 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 61 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 34 60 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 26 60 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 26 63 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 30 63 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 29 59 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 30 51 19 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 28 53 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 29 50 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 57 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 33 60 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 26 59 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 61 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 62 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 66 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 30 63 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 61 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 31 67 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 29 66 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 71 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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