329
FXUS64 KEPZ 302033
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
233 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
- SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
EAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
- WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR PACIFIC UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STRETCHES OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. A BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND VIRGA STRETCHES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO FAR WEST TEXAS, UNDER
AN AREA OF BROADLY DIFFLUENT LOW ALOFT. WHILE ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN
HAS REACHED THE GROUND, THE PRECIP AND VIRGA HAS HELPED LIFT
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD SET US UP WELL FOR WHEN THE MAIN DISTURBANCE
COMES ROLLING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS
WE WON'T HAVE TO WASTE TIME TRYING TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS.
IN OTHER WORDS, WE'VE HELPED PRIME THINGS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN SONORA TONIGHT. WE'LL KEEP THE WSW-ESE ORIENTED BAND OF
LIGHT PRECIP IN PLACE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OCCASIONALLY IT WILL WAVE NORTH OR SOUTH, BRINGING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN NM AND INTO THE EL PASO
AREA. MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN SW NEW MEXICO
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, MAINLY AFTER 5 PM, BUT ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM. SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AS WELL, AIDED BY THE STRONGER FORCING JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LOOKS TO
REACH THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOCUSED AROUND 2 AM TO 5 AM IN EL PASO.
BY DAYBREAK, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF ELP, BUT A
SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW BETWEEN 9 AM
AND NOON, AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. SOME
GUSTIER WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WEST-FACING
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AS WELL. STEADIER LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...THOUGH SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 9000
TO 10,000 FEET. FINALLY, A MID-LEVEL COLD POOL LAGGING BEHIND THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GILA REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND A FEW OF
THESE WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE LOWLANDS TOWARDS THE EVENING, MAINLY
BETWEEN DEMING AND LAS CRUCES. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTY WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN TO ITS NORTH AND
WEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE GILA, SIERRA COUNTY, AND THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS LOOK TO STAY DRY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY, AND WESTERLIES ON MONDAY. BREEZY
WEST WINDS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROLLS THROUGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. A STEADY STREAM
OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES TO
ELP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SHOWERS BECOME A LITTLE
STEADIER TOWARDS THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FOCUSED
BETWEEN 07Z TO 11Z AT ELP. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VIS
RESTRICTIONS AND CEILINGS IN BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
CEILINGS MAY COME CLOSE TO IFR FOR A TIME AS WELL. RIGHT NOW, WE
ARE CARRYING A TEMPO GROUP WITH BKN012. LEFT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW, BUT ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM, JUST LOW CONFIDENCE AT ANY GIVEN POINT
LOCATION.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z, ALONG WITH
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS RETURNING. THIS MAY HELP KEEP MVFR CEILINGS
IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ELP DUE TO THE
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOAKING RAINFALL WILL MOSTLY FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE,
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES. A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL SETUP OVER THE
SOUTHERN GILA REGION, WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF CATRON
COUNTY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT THE
RECENT RAINFALL WILL MITIGATE CONCERNS AND KEEP RH VALUES
ELEVATED. BUT CAUTION IS NOTED AS THE PARTS OF THE GILA MAY MISS
OUT ON THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, INCLUDING THE GILA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 55 69 48 72 / 90 50 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 50 62 42 64 / 80 70 10 0
LAS CRUCES 50 66 43 69 / 80 40 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 50 64 43 67 / 90 80 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 35 40 28 47 / 90 80 40 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 67 48 69 / 50 40 50 20
SILVER CITY 47 68 43 65 / 60 50 40 20
DEMING 51 74 46 72 / 80 40 30 10
LORDSBURG 49 74 46 72 / 70 20 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 55 66 49 69 / 90 50 20 0
DELL CITY 50 61 42 66 / 90 80 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 71 47 73 / 70 60 10 0
LOMA LINDA 49 58 42 63 / 90 60 10 0
FABENS 55 69 47 72 / 90 40 10 0
SANTA TERESA 52 66 45 69 / 80 50 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 65 48 69 / 80 70 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 50 66 42 69 / 80 60 40 10
HATCH 52 71 46 72 / 60 40 40 10
COLUMBUS 55 73 48 72 / 70 20 10 0
OROGRANDE 51 61 43 66 / 90 70 20 10
MAYHILL 41 48 33 57 / 90 80 40 20
MESCALERO 40 50 32 58 / 90 90 40 30
TIMBERON 42 48 31 54 / 90 80 30 20
WINSTON 46 61 39 61 / 40 50 50 30
HILLSBORO 49 66 45 66 / 60 50 50 20
SPACEPORT 49 67 43 68 / 60 50 40 10
LAKE ROBERTS 45 69 28 66 / 60 50 40 30
HURLEY 48 69 40 67 / 60 40 30 10
CLIFF 51 76 40 73 / 50 40 20 10
MULE CREEK 49 74 33 71 / 40 30 20 10
FAYWOOD 48 66 44 66 / 70 40 40 10
ANIMAS 49 75 48 73 / 70 10 10 0
HACHITA 48 72 45 71 / 70 20 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 74 46 72 / 80 10 10 0
CLOVERDALE 46 69 46 69 / 70 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page