559
FXUS64 KEPZ 171130
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
530 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
- BREEZY WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
FOR WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
..FRIDAY
SUBTROPICAL JET FLOW INCREASES ON FRIDAY, WITH A 996MB SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MID-AFTERNOON. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND KNOWN SENSITIVE AREAS
SUCH AS THE LORDSBURG PLAYA, PORTIONS OF LUNA COUNTY, AND THE DUST
SOURCES IN NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZY AGAIN ACROSS
EL PASO.
..THIS WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SPILLING DOWN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL REACH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO A COOLER
WEEKEND (LOWLAND HIGHS MID 70S SATURDAY, LOWER 70S SUNDAY). WINDS
DO LOOK GUSTY ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD INCLUDE WEST EL PASO. MORE BLOWING DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE LORDSBURG PLAYA ALONG I-10 ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS
AND PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER BACK UP TO AROUND 0.8" SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EL PASO/HUDSPETH/OTERO
COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THOUGH ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
..MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
WIND SPEEDS DOWN OVER THE TIMEFRAME, SO MINIMAL WEATHER THREATS.
MARGINAL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
VERY SPOTTY RAIN OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, OTHERWISE THE REST
OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.
..WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING
MORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MIDWEEK. WE MAY NEED WIND
HEADLINES DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WARM, DRY, AND
BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
(250-280). THIS WILL BRING SOME BLDU POTENTIAL, BUT VIS REDUCTIONS
BELOW 6 SM ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER DARK, BUT
A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND 6Z.
SKIES WILL BE SKC-SCT250.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MAINLY NEW MEXICO. A PASSING UL WAVE WILL INCREASE 20-FOOT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, UP THE BLACK RANGE AND INTO THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN 20 MPH FOR
FAR WEST TEXAS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
LOWER TEENS, AND THUS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR
NEW MEXICO FIRE ZONES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER DARK
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL AS BRING IMPROVEMENTS IN MOISTURE
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NEW
MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SWEPT OUT BY TUESDAY WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RESUMING. WE ALSO NEED TO WATCH WINDS TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 76 51 72 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 48 69 45 66 / 0 0 0 30
LAS CRUCES 45 74 44 70 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 43 74 41 73 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 29 53 28 52 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 72 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 40 70 43 65 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 45 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 41 76 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 76 53 70 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 44 72 42 69 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 53 79 51 74 / 0 0 0 30
LOMA LINDA 45 68 45 64 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 51 77 51 73 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 48 74 49 70 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 75 50 70 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 43 75 43 71 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 45 77 43 74 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 49 78 51 73 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 45 72 46 69 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 31 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 31 63 32 63 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 33 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 30 66 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 41 72 42 68 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 42 74 39 71 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 34 72 38 67 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 37 72 40 68 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 37 78 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 36 75 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 41 71 42 66 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 44 78 50 73 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 44 76 48 70 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 77 49 73 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 45 74 49 70 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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