317
FXUS64 KEPZ 280511
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1011 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
- RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID EIGHTIES, AVERAGING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER, WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT STILL SOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
- NEXT WEEK, CONTINUE FAIR, DRY, AND WARM. TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE
AS WARM AS THIS WEEKEND, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO
PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT.
- FIRE DANGER INCREASES NEXT WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
LARGE, SPRAWLING UL HIGH/ RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS CENTERED
OVER WESTERN MEXICO WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS POINTING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST, CENTERING
ITSELF JUST SOUTH OF CHIHUAHUA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
CONTINUING EAST, SOUTH OF TEXAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE ALSO
FLATTENING. THIS PATTERN WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER
UPWARD WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE OUR WARMEST DAYS. THE
ALL-TIME RECORD FOR FEBRUARY IN EL PASO IS 86, AND WE WILL
CHALLENGE THAT ON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE APPROACHING 90 ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH NBM GIVING A 20% AND 5% CHANCE OF HITTING HIT EACH
DAY RESPECTIVELY, WHICH WOULD BE THE EARLIEST ON RECORD IF IT
HAPPENS. MONDAY WILL ALSO SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN WINDS WITH THE
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN.
BY TUESDAY, A LONG-WAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL START TO SET-UP ACROSS
THE WEST, BEGINNING A WAVE TRAIN FOR US. THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAKING FOR A
BREEZY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP A FEW DEGREES THOUGH
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY
THOUGH WEAKER THAN TUESDAY'S WAVE BUT STILL WITH AN UPTICK IN
WINDS. A LARGER WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SKC-FEW250. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THOUGH FAVORING WESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 906 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
CRITICAL MIN RHS WILL BE SEEN EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL EACH
DAY WITH VALUES OF AROUND 15-20%. DURING THE WEEKEND, WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH CONTINUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE LOWEST MIN RHS OF THE WEEK WITH
SEVERAL LOWLAND LOCATIONS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM AS WHAT WE'RE EXPECTING
THIS WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK,
EXCEPT WEDNESDAY, WILL FEATURE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WITH BREEZY
WINDS, ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND CRITICAL MIN RHS CONTINUING, AT
LEAST ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 54 86 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 82 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 48 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 61 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 80 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 77 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 48 86 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 84 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 45 85 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 90 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 51 87 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 83 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 54 83 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 82 45 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 45 85 46 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 86 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 45 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 70 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 75 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 81 44 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 42 77 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 44 83 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 80 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 49 84 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 47 84 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 49 86 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 80 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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