881
FXUS64 KEPZ 071240
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
640 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, INCLUDING IN THE LOWLANDS. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH ALREADY-SATURATED AREAS IN SW NEW MEXICO
THE MOST FAVORED.
- A DRYING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETREATING BACK TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES COMMON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
UL HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER, CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. IT HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS COOL THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT. THIS
COMBINED WITH A SMALL MCV ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. UL HIGHS LOOKS TO MOVE LITTLE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN PW, SO EXPECT FRIDAY TO FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. HREF
AND OTHER GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS.
AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY, THE UL HIGH WILL DRAG DRIER AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING BELOW 50 AND PWS UNDER AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES WHILE STORM CHANCES DROP,
LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE OUR LOWEST STORM CHANCES, LIMITED TO THE GILA WILDERNESS.
WITH THE SOURCE REGION OF OUR AIR OUT OF THE NORTHEAST,
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO HOT BUT STILL CLOSE TO 100 FOR THE
LOWLANDS.
MID-WEEK, WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, THE UL HIGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS RAPIDLY WEAKENS WITH A NEW HIGH BECOMING DOMINATE OVER THE
GULF OF AMERICA COAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE CWA TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND A TRUE MONSOONAL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWLANDS. PROB30S SEEMED JUSTIFIED FOR ALL LOWLAND TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 636 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
ANOTHER DAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, BUT DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN FOR THE WEEKEND, LIMITING STORM
CHANCES MOSTLY TO THE AREA MOUNTAINS, AND NOT VERY WIDESPREAD.
WEEKEND MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 14-18% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 25-40% IN
THE MOUNTAINS. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT EACH AFTERNOON AT
5-10 MPH AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 75 100 75 100 / 30 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 95 66 95 / 20 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 98 69 98 / 40 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 97 70 98 / 50 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 75 51 75 / 40 20 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 98 71 99 / 30 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 64 92 65 93 / 20 30 0 20
DEMING 70 99 70 100 / 50 0 10 0
LORDSBURG 70 98 70 99 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 99 76 100 / 30 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 99 70 99 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 103 74 102 / 20 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 69 93 68 93 / 40 0 0 0
FABENS 74 100 73 100 / 40 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 72 98 73 99 / 30 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 98 74 99 / 30 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 70 98 70 99 / 40 0 10 0
HATCH 70 101 70 102 / 40 0 10 0
COLUMBUS 73 99 73 101 / 30 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 69 97 69 97 / 30 0 0 0
MAYHILL 58 86 57 88 / 20 10 0 10
MESCALERO 57 86 56 87 / 40 20 0 10
TIMBERON 55 84 55 85 / 50 10 0 0
WINSTON 61 90 61 91 / 30 10 0 10
HILLSBORO 68 97 68 98 / 40 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 97 68 98 / 50 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 91 59 92 / 20 40 10 30
HURLEY 65 95 66 95 / 30 10 0 10
CLIFF 66 98 66 99 / 20 40 10 10
MULE CREEK 64 94 65 95 / 20 40 10 20
FAYWOOD 67 94 68 95 / 40 10 0 0
ANIMAS 70 99 70 100 / 30 0 0 0
HACHITA 69 97 69 98 / 50 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 96 69 97 / 30 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 92 65 93 / 30 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34
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