888
FXUS64 KEPZ 241127
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
427 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 406 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
- RECORD WARMTH THIS WEEK, LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
SEVENTIES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MONDAY'S
HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 917 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
FINALLY SOME CHANGES IN OUR WEATHER LOOK TO BE ON THE WAY. WE
CURRENTLY CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
INCHING CLOSER FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE US A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WARM FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUR NEAR
RECORD AND RECORD SETTING WARMTH THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, A LITTLE MOISTURE MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE I CAN SAY THAT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY
HIGH (ABOVE 10K) SO ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND
LIQUID.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
DRIER BUT STILL WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THAT IS
WHEN THINGS BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING. AT THE SURFACE A DECENT COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE ALOFT THE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, MAY ACTUALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION TOTALS, BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME SNOW IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND SOME COLD RAIN IN THE
LOWLANDS. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS AND WATCH AS THE
WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADJUST THEIR OUTPUT OVER THE NEXT 3 TO
5 DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE BKN-OVC 150-250 CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE VALID PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS OR LESS
BECOMING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY AND VARIABLE AT OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS SHIFTING TO THE EAST ALLOWING A MORE MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MOST ZONES SEEING GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT
FOR MINIMUM VALUES. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE
GILA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED. TYPICAL AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED, FAVORING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 77 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 74 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 72 42 69 / 0 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 45 73 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 40 51 37 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 46 71 42 69 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 45 65 41 64 / 20 20 0 0
DEMING 46 74 42 73 / 10 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 45 70 41 69 / 20 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 74 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 41 77 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 47 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 69 48 67 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 47 77 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 74 44 72 / 0 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 74 50 72 / 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 73 42 71 / 0 10 0 0
HATCH 45 76 41 74 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 50 75 45 74 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 73 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 66 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 41 63 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 39 62 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 38 65 34 64 / 10 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 72 43 69 / 10 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 72 39 70 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 64 37 62 / 20 20 10 0
HURLEY 43 68 40 67 / 20 20 0 0
CLIFF 42 71 37 69 / 20 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 66 37 64 / 40 40 10 0
FAYWOOD 46 69 43 67 / 20 20 0 0
ANIMAS 47 72 42 72 / 20 20 0 0
HACHITA 45 72 41 72 / 10 20 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 74 43 74 / 10 20 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 67 47 67 / 20 20 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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