498
FXUS64 KEPZ 161852
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1252 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- CONTINUED DRY, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS BRINGING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- GUSTY OVERNIGHT WINDS IN SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL EXACERBATE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR EAST MAY TRY TO PUSH SOME
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH WITH CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING ITS
BASE OVER NEVADA. A PLUME OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SITS AMIDST WSW
WINDS ALOFT, STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
NOR SURPRISINGLY, THE LOW LEVELS ARE ALSO QUITE DRY, WITH RH
VALUES ALREADY UNDER 10 PERCENT AT ELP AND SEVERAL OTHER LOWLAND
LOCATIONS.
THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS IT DIGS IN OVER THE
WESTERN US. THE MAIN THEME WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER-RELATED.
BREEZY WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING PER USUAL, BUT THE TROUGH OVER NEVADA WILL
APPROACH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG
EAST AND NORTH-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPE AREAS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE WIDER AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH,
MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO FAR WEST TEXAS,
THOUGH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST OF
EL PASO INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO KICK UP
AT LEAST LIGHT DUST, THOUGH WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST,
PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND PASS JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS ON MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER WINDY AND DRY DAY TO
THE AREA, VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER-80S EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
AROUND 90 AT EL PASO, AND WARMER IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WILL PUMP THE BRAKES BEFORE IT CAN CREST THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
BUT IT WILL INTERRUPT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO REDUCE WIND
SPEEDS TO JUST 'BREEZY' ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE
FROM THE DRYLINE BY WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF THE
PECOS. NOCTURNAL DRYLINE "SLOSHING" WILL BRING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
OUR AREA EACH DAY. THERE'S STILL A CHANCE THE DRYLINE COULD SNEAK
INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING CONVECTION CHANCES TO
PARTS OF HUDSPETH AND EL PASO COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FWIW,
THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS A BIT, WITH WESTERN TROUGHING
KEEPING STEADY DRY WSW LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA, PREVENTING
MOISTURE FROM WORKING IN. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE, AND THE
WESTWARD MOISTURE PUSH MIGHT DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR LEVELS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AT AREA TERMINALS.
CURRENT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A 40KT WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AT 1KFT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP PAST 05Z TONIGHT AT KELP/KLRU, AND CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT
BETWEEN 12-15Z SUNDAY, BEFORE TURNING BREEZY AGAIN BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE
GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING INCREASING WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA, WHILE VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
REMAIN IN PLACE.
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEVADA TODAY WILL MOVE INTO
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT, WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY.
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL HELP KEEP
WINDS ALOFT ELEVATED TONIGHT, AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT,
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ALONG HIGHER ELEVATION RIDGES, AS WELL AS
NORTH AND EAST-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL SEVERELY LIMIT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY.
IN SOME AREAS, INCLUDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAN RIDGE,
RED FLAG OR NEAR-RED FLAG CONDITIONS MIGHT PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL QUICKLY REACH THE SURFACE EARLIER IN THE
MORNING THAN USUAL, ON SUNDAY. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
SUNDAY STARTS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WHEN IT ENDS AT MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH PICKS RIGHT UP IN ITS PLACE,
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST EAST OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
INTERRUPT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION ENOUGH ON
TUESDAY TO BRING US LIGHTER WINDS.
THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE, AND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WE'LL NEED TO SEE IF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EAST CAN PUSH ANY
MOISTURE INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.
OTHERWISE, FOR MOST AREAS, DRY WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE,
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BACK INTO PLAY BY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 60 87 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 64 48 62 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 85 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 78 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 58 89 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 57 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 96 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 65 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 53 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 57 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 90 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 49 75 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 43 73 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 47 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 58 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 77 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 53 82 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 84 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 80 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 54 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 55 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 56 85 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 78 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN/88-ANM
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