001
FXUS64 KEPZ 261132
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
532 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AGAIN TODAY WITH THE AREA MOUNTAINS
BEING FAVORED WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT
LOWLANDS.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TOWARD
THE START OF JULY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO ELONGATE AND BROADEN ACROSS THE GULF TO
NORTHERN MEXICO BUT MOISTURE IS STILL TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR STORMS AND MORE ISOLATED TO
POTENTIALLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE DESERT LOWLANDS WHEREVER
OUTFLOWS CAN TRIGGER OFF STORMS. ANOTHER GUSTY AND DUSTY DAY CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL STILL BE AROUND 45-50
DEGREES. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE
GULF STATES AND LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. MEANWHILE, A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH OVER THE PACNW AND WESTERN CONUS
WHICH WILL ADD SOME BREEZINESS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 10-20 MPH. THIS IS USUALLY NOT TOO
NOTICEABLE BUT THIS WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE
SOME RAIN CHANCES BUT WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. NEXT
WEEK LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE WITH A MONSOON TAP OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE SKIES, BASES AS
LOW AS 120. SCT TO ISO SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH BLDU THE MAIN
CONCERN. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THIS TAF CYCLE. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL TOP OUT
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, MAINLY FROM THE
WEST (240-270).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING AS MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH A TAD
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. VENTING WILL RANGE VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT.
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE WINDS INCREASE. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS, EXCEPT ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY AND INTO THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, INCREASING
FURTHER FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY FUELS, LOW RH VALUES, AND WINDS
NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS
WEEKEND FOR NM FIRE ZONES 110 AND 111 (GILA NF AND SW NM
LOWLANDS). PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO / CAPITAN MOUNTAINS AND
SIERRA COUNTY WILL ALSO SEE WINDS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, BUT
FOR THE SACRAMENTO / CAPITAN MOUNTAINS, MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. NEVERTHELESS, NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THIS ZONE MAY SEE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY, AND FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
WINDS DECREASE WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE MONDAY ONWARD.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS WE HEAD
INTO JULY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 101 77 100 / 20 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 68 96 69 95 / 30 10 10 20
LAS CRUCES 69 99 69 97 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 70 99 71 98 / 10 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 55 77 56 75 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 99 70 97 / 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 64 91 64 90 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 68 101 68 100 / 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 68 97 67 97 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 99 76 98 / 10 0 0 10
DELL CITY 70 101 71 99 / 20 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 74 102 74 101 / 40 0 10 20
LOMA LINDA 69 93 70 92 / 10 0 0 10
FABENS 73 102 74 100 / 20 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 72 98 72 98 / 10 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 100 77 98 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 99 70 98 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 69 102 70 101 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 101 74 100 / 10 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 69 98 69 97 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 60 88 61 87 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 57 88 59 86 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 56 85 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 59 90 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 97 68 95 / 10 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 65 99 66 98 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 64 95 65 94 / 10 0 0 0
CLIFF 64 97 64 96 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 63 93 62 91 / 10 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 94 67 93 / 10 0 0 0
ANIMAS 67 98 68 97 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 66 97 67 97 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 97 68 95 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 65 91 65 90 / 10 0 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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