801
FXUS64 KEPZ 170427
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1027 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
- INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- STORM CHANCES LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
SUMMER TIME REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE US. CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/PERMIAN BASIN CONTINUES
TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. UPPER HIGH PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL FILL IN THE DRYING SLOT THAT HAD RESIDED OVER THE CWA THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP IN GETTING PWS WELL ABOVE AN INCH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, PWS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY, AS HIGH AS 1.3-1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH DESTABILIZATION.
IN OTHER WORDS WE ARE EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY IF THE PWS APPROACH 1.50 INCHES (150% OF NORMAL).
MONDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE COMING CLOSER TOGETHER AS WE SAIL
THROUGH THE NEW WEEK AHEAD. OLDER RUNS HAD DIVERGED, WITH GFS
MOVING MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY, WHILE THE
ECMWF HELD ONTO THE MOISTURE MUCH LONGER. LATEST SET OF MODELS
ARE GETTING A BIT CLOSER IN SOLUTION, THOUGH GFS STILL ABOUT ONE
DAY FASTER WITH THE DRYING PATTERN. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE TRANSITION
DAY BACK TO DRIER PATTERN FOR GFS AS IT BEGINS MOVING LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH WEST TOWARD ARIZONA, THIS WOULD STILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND BUT BEST COVERAGE WOULD BE OUT WEST TOWARD ARIZONA. ECMWF
STILL KEEPS THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CWA FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE DAY ON MONDAY. GFS DEFINITELY DRIER BY TUESDAY WITH PWS
BACK BELOW ONE INCH AND CHANCES OF RAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR WEST.
ECMWF MUCH LIKE THE GFS ON MONDAY, WITH INVERTED TROUGH OUT OVER
THE WESTERN CWA WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THAT AREA. BY
WEDNESDAY, BOTH MODELS HAVE THE UPPER HIGH ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER
COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND
MUCH LESS RAIN ACTIVITY, WHEN THEY SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT100 SCT-BKN250. ISOLATED BKN070CB
4SM -TSRA UNTIL AROUND 07Z-08Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR
STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 7-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z,
AND THEN SPREADING TO THE LOWLANDS AFTER 20Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BURN SCAR FLOODING, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HEALTHY SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. A SLOWLY APPROACHING UL LOW WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
THE MAIN CONCERN. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE OF ANY RECENT
BURN SCAR AREAS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH POOR TO GOOD VENTING EACH AFTERNOON. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 94 72 92 / 10 20 50 30
SIERRA BLANCA 62 88 63 87 / 10 30 30 70
LAS CRUCES 67 91 65 90 / 20 30 60 40
ALAMOGORDO 66 89 66 89 / 20 50 50 50
CLOUDCROFT 50 67 49 68 / 20 80 50 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 91 68 91 / 10 50 30 60
SILVER CITY 60 83 59 83 / 20 50 40 60
DEMING 65 94 65 91 / 10 20 40 40
LORDSBURG 64 88 64 88 / 30 30 40 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 93 72 91 / 10 20 60 30
DELL CITY 65 90 67 91 / 10 40 30 60
FORT HANCOCK 70 95 71 93 / 0 30 40 60
LOMA LINDA 66 86 64 84 / 10 50 40 50
FABENS 70 95 70 93 / 10 20 50 40
SANTA TERESA 70 91 68 89 / 10 20 60 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 91 71 91 / 10 50 50 50
JORNADA RANGE 68 91 66 90 / 10 50 50 40
HATCH 68 95 67 94 / 20 30 40 50
COLUMBUS 71 95 70 91 / 20 20 60 40
OROGRANDE 66 89 66 88 / 10 40 50 40
MAYHILL 55 77 54 79 / 10 90 40 90
MESCALERO 54 77 53 78 / 20 80 40 80
TIMBERON 52 74 51 75 / 10 80 50 70
WINSTON 59 82 57 82 / 20 70 30 70
HILLSBORO 65 89 64 88 / 10 60 30 60
SPACEPORT 66 91 64 90 / 20 50 40 50
LAKE ROBERTS 61 84 59 84 / 20 50 30 70
HURLEY 61 87 60 86 / 20 40 40 60
CLIFF 63 89 63 89 / 20 30 30 60
MULE CREEK 60 85 59 85 / 30 30 20 60
FAYWOOD 64 86 62 86 / 10 40 40 60
ANIMAS 65 88 65 88 / 30 40 30 50
HACHITA 63 89 64 88 / 30 30 40 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 89 65 88 / 10 40 40 60
CLOVERDALE 62 82 62 82 / 30 40 30 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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