663
FXUS64 KEPZ 121134
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
534 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST.
- INCREASING STORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING, THEN AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, THEN FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH, A DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA.
THIS FEATURE IS LIMITING MOST OF THE DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS THIS LINE. NORTH OF THAT LINE OVER OUR CWA,
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP OR EXTENSIVE, WITH PERHAPS A WEAKER
DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA,
LIMITED OUR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO MOSTLY THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. HRRR HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL, AND ENDS MOST ACTIVITY BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MODEL DOES BRING DOWN STORMS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN AND CHAVEZ COUNTIES ACROSS EASTERN
OTERO COUNTY FROM AROUND 10PM-2AM. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA.
SUNDAY...MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE ONLY DRIFTS NORTH SLIGHTLY, WITH
ATTENDANT DEEP MOISTURE FOLLOWING IT. IT PERHAPS ENTERS THE CWA
LATE NIGHT; HOWEVER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA FOR BULK OF SUNDAY DOES
INCREASE A BIT (PWS .9-1.1 INCHES), SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED, MAINLY
EVENING, LOWLAND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CURRENT GFS RUN SHOWS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
DISSIPATING OR DRIFTING NORTH OF THE CWA, ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE
TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST WIDE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA, AND WITH PWS OF 1.2-1.5 INCHES, SOME
FLOOD POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST. UNFORTUNATELY, THE NAM12 AND ECMWF
ARE LESS BULLISH ON THAT DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN. SO
GRIDS WILL REFLECT A SORT OF COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS.
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN BUT NOT WIDESPREAD, NOR SERIOUS FLOOD RISK.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CUT-OFF LOW FROM POLAR JET BEGINS
RETROGRADING BACK TOWARD OUR AREA AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SIMILAR WITH THIS FEATURE AND DAMPEN MUCH OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. STORMS
MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING WELL ABOVE 1
INCH (MAYBE AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES). GFS EVEN SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
FEEDING IN FROM TROPICAL FEATURE OFF THE BAJA. INVERTED TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE CWA (GFS), OR DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST OVER THE SONORAN
DESERT (ECMWF). EITHER SOLUTION SHOULD MEAN INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN ALL AREAS, AND GIVEN THE PWS, FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AOB 8KTS
THIS MORNING, THEN GUSTING TO ABOUT 20KTS FROM E-SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS SUBSIDE AROUND 06Z MON. SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS
LINGER THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR STORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. KTCS IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A CELL OVER THE
TERMINAL LATER TODAY, BUT ONLY 20-30% CHANCE. OTHER TERMINALS HAVE
ABOUT 10% CHANCE OF A TS. GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CONVECTION TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
FOR TODAY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
BRIEF DOWNPOURS. DRY LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THERE
REMAINS DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. STORM MOTION WILL BE
GENERALLY TO THE WEST TODAY. OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS, WINDS WILL BE
MODESTLY BREEZY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE COOLING TREND LASTING
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MORE ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP
THIS WEEK AS DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON RECENT BURN SCARS. WETTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
IMPROVEMENTS FOR FUELS.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-35% TODAY, RISING TO 25-50% BY TUE. VENT
RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 92 71 91 / 20 40 40 50
SIERRA BLANCA 64 85 63 83 / 20 60 50 70
LAS CRUCES 68 91 66 90 / 10 20 30 40
ALAMOGORDO 67 91 65 89 / 20 30 20 60
CLOUDCROFT 50 69 49 67 / 20 50 30 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 92 69 91 / 40 10 30 20
SILVER CITY 62 86 60 85 / 40 20 30 60
DEMING 68 93 65 91 / 30 10 50 40
LORDSBURG 68 92 66 91 / 40 10 40 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 91 72 89 / 20 30 40 50
DELL CITY 67 89 65 88 / 20 50 40 50
FORT HANCOCK 72 92 69 90 / 30 60 50 70
LOMA LINDA 66 84 64 83 / 10 40 40 60
FABENS 72 93 69 91 / 20 40 40 60
SANTA TERESA 71 90 68 88 / 20 30 40 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 92 72 90 / 10 20 30 40
JORNADA RANGE 69 92 67 90 / 10 10 30 30
HATCH 69 95 67 93 / 30 10 30 30
COLUMBUS 72 91 70 90 / 20 20 50 40
OROGRANDE 68 90 66 88 / 10 20 30 40
MAYHILL 54 77 53 76 / 40 60 50 70
MESCALERO 54 80 52 78 / 20 50 20 60
TIMBERON 52 76 51 75 / 30 50 30 70
WINSTON 60 84 59 83 / 40 10 30 30
HILLSBORO 66 89 65 88 / 50 10 40 40
SPACEPORT 66 91 64 90 / 30 10 30 30
LAKE ROBERTS 60 88 59 86 / 30 30 40 60
HURLEY 64 89 62 87 / 40 10 40 40
CLIFF 63 93 62 91 / 40 30 40 60
MULE CREEK 60 89 60 87 / 40 40 50 70
FAYWOOD 65 88 63 86 / 40 10 40 40
ANIMAS 67 91 66 90 / 40 20 50 40
HACHITA 66 91 64 89 / 30 10 50 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 90 65 88 / 50 40 60 40
CLOVERDALE 63 85 63 84 / 60 40 60 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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