249
FXUS64 KEPZ 280440
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1040 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
- FOR THE LAST 5 DAYS OF MAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FROM
SEASONAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
- STARTING TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT TO A
MORE WET FORECAST WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
WE HAVE SETTLED INTO A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS DESPITE THE FACT THAT THERE IS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE LURKS JUST TO OUR
EAST. ON THURSDAY, SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE CREEPS A LITTLE TO
THE WEST AND WILL GIVE EASTERN OTERO AND EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
BE DRY AND WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. FOR FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
WEST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND THAT WILL
HELP SWEEP WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THAT WAS LURKING IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA OUT OF THE REGION. WE WILL BE BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THE WEEKEND, A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. RIGHT NOW MONDAY, LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A FEW LOWLAND LOCATIONS FLIRTING
WITH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST WILL MAKE A STRONGER PUSH TO THE WEST. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE AFTER MONDAY WILL COOL TO NEAR OR SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
IF EL PASO DOESN'T HIT 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FURTHER INTO JUNE FOR OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OUR WINDS HAVE
SLOWED THIS EVENING AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE LOW END GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OUR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE
UNLIMITED, BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AND GIVE US HIGH CEILINGS
OF BKN250 FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, DIVIDING NEW MEXICO BETWEEN DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE WEST AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO THE EAST. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS GILA NF INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MIN RH
10 TO 15%. WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH ON THURSDAY, SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER MOISTURE OVER LINCOLN NF WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED (20-40%)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF SUDDEN, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND NEW LIGHTNING STARTS. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY, MOSTLY OVER THE CAPITAN
RANGE AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
DRY WEATHER AREA-WIDE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO'S MOISTURE PUSHED FURTHER EAST. MIN RH 5-12% AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA. OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MOISTURE FLOWS NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENT ERC STATUS SHOWS BOTH GNF/LNF AT 90TH
PERCENTILE DRYNESS, INDICATING FUELS VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE.
POTENTIAL RAINS OVER LNF MAY LEAD TO RAPIDLY DECREASING ERCS NEXT
WEEK IF STORM COVERAGE IS HIGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 56 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 90 64 89 / 0 10 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 68 48 67 / 0 20 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 91 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 57 91 60 90 / 0 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 64 96 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 61 95 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 90 73 90 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 57 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 56 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 90 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 48 79 53 79 / 0 20 30 10
MESCALERO 47 79 51 77 / 0 20 20 10
TIMBERON 47 75 49 74 / 0 10 20 0
WINSTON 45 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 55 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 46 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 50 86 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 52 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 55 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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