312
FXUS64 KEPZ 221721
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1021 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER MURKY HIGH
CLOUD COVER.
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, AND A WINTRY MIX IN SOME LOWLAND AREAS IS POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF EL
PASO.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS, PARTICULARLY BELOW 9000 FEET, WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
THE NEXT AND WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR TODAY,
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE SKY AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS WITH
LIGHT TO LOW END BREEZES.
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, A
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL DEVELOP ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SAID UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, OVERSPREADING ACROSS
NM, WEST TX, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
WILL SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. IN FACT,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 3-4 SIGMA ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 0.70-0.85". DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION
WITH GOOD DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY (70-90% POPS) AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING (40-60% POPS). SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING 50-100 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVERSPREADING THE LOWLANDS DURING
THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME, ALONG WITH LI VALUES BETWEEN -2 TO
2. THE NBM SUITE OF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS 50-100 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
THAT SAID, WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE, THERE WILL NOT BE
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER INSERTED, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER,
AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME. QPF OUTPUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
STEADY WITH GENERALLY 0.5- 1.25" ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME WITH REGARD TO QPF.
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, A HISTORICALLY STRONG
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (~1045-1050MB) WILL USHER IN A ARCTIC
AIRMASS ACROSS CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF SAID COLD FRONT,
TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA, AND WHETHER OR NOT
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE ONGOING AS IT PUSHES THROUGH - AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD THE ASPECTS JUST MENTIONED ABOVE.
TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE KEY, WITH REGARD TO SNOW MIXING ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS AND EVEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. AS FRESH DATA CONTINUES TO POPULATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. IF FROPA OCCURS EARLIER ON WHILE PRECIPITATION IS
ONGOING, THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SNOW ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. IF FROPA OCCURS LATER ON WHILE PRECIPITATION ENDS,
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING SNOW
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS (DIVE INTO THAT IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH) AND
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY/OTERO MESA REGION. AS OF NOW
FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES NBM PROBABILITIES ARE A LOW: PROBABILITY
OF >/= 0.5 SNOW : EL PASO-20% / LAS CRUCES-20%. THAT BEING SAID,
SNOW CHANCES FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES AREA ARE VERY LOW AND
CONFINED TO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME WITH VERY LITTLE TO
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO 1 INCH (15-30% CHANCES) OVER TRANSMOUNTAIN AND SAN AUGUSTIN PASS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
FOR THE, ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, SNOW TOTALS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT. RECENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FROPA HAPPENING DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 9000FT
DURING THE LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME ON SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS A HIGH
CHANCE (70-80%) OF SEEING 4" OR MORE OF SNOW (ADVISORY CRITERIA)
OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000FT, ALONG WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK RANGE. MEDIUM CHANCE (45-55%) OF SEEING 8" OR
MORE OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000FT. AND LOW
CHANCE (10-25%) OF SEEING 12" OR MORE OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000FT. THAT BEING SAID, WINTER WEATHER WATCH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT THE ONSET TIMING
WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO SATURDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF FRIDAY (THE
ORIGINAL START TIME). WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON FROPA AND ASSOCIATED
SNOW LEVELS DURING THE EVENT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SNOWFALL TOTALS
FOR ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000-8500 FEET OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
SIGNALS FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN HUDSPETH COUNTY ARE ALSO
FADING A BIT, WITH THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING FREEZING RAIN AT
SIERRA BLANCA AND JUST WEST OF VAN HORN AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SHALLOW COLD AIR MAKES ITS MOVE WEST. IT'S A VERY THIN LAYER OF WARM
AIR, RIGHT AROUND 800 MB (NOT FAR OFF THE GROUND), AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IT MAY ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RISK IS
STILL NOTABLE, HOWEVER, AND FREEZING RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GRIDS.
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DROPPING TO BELOW 10 PERCENT AFTER 12PM AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN.
SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD, WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS SUNDAY
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES BOTH MORNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH QUIET/FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS RESUMING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT SCT-
BKN150 WITH LAYERS TO 300. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START DEVELOPING AND
MOVING IN FROM THE SW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GENERALLY
ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CHANCES AND
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. SKIES WILL BE BKN-OVC100 WITH
ISOLATED BKN070 DURING THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 4-8 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE FORECAST HORIZON. ONE LAST
TRANQUIL DAY TODAY WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO INCOMING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL
SPREAD LOWLAND SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE MOSTLY TO SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES FOR ZONE 113 AND 1-3 INCHES FOR ZONE
110. TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
DRIER WEST FLOW THEN MOVES IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR CLEARING
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS 15-20% TODAY INCREASING TO 60-75%
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN DOWN TO 30-45% MONDAY/TUESDAY.
MOUNTAINS 15-25% TODAY, INCREASING TO 60-80% FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN DOWN TO 35-50% MONDAY/TUESDAY. VENT RATES POOR-FAIR
THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 59 46 57 / 40 90 90 90
SIERRA BLANCA 45 58 41 49 / 30 80 90 90
LAS CRUCES 41 54 42 53 / 40 90 90 90
ALAMOGORDO 39 54 40 52 / 10 90 90 90
CLOUDCROFT 31 37 29 34 / 10 90 90 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 38 54 41 54 / 10 70 90 90
SILVER CITY 38 49 38 47 / 20 80 90 90
DEMING 43 58 43 57 / 40 90 90 90
LORDSBURG 42 54 43 52 / 40 90 90 90
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 57 48 54 / 40 90 90 90
DELL CITY 40 55 34 46 / 30 80 90 90
FORT HANCOCK 47 64 46 58 / 30 90 90 90
LOMA LINDA 45 53 41 47 / 30 80 90 90
FABENS 48 61 46 57 / 30 90 90 90
SANTA TERESA 46 56 46 54 / 40 90 90 90
WHITE SANDS HQ 47 56 46 54 / 30 90 90 90
JORNADA RANGE 39 54 43 54 / 20 80 90 90
HATCH 39 56 43 57 / 20 80 90 90
COLUMBUS 48 59 47 57 / 50 90 90 90
OROGRANDE 42 54 42 51 / 30 90 90 90
MAYHILL 34 49 30 43 / 10 80 90 90
MESCALERO 32 48 31 44 / 10 90 90 90
TIMBERON 33 45 30 39 / 20 90 90 90
WINSTON 31 49 30 48 / 10 70 90 90
HILLSBORO 40 54 40 54 / 10 80 90 90
SPACEPORT 35 53 40 54 / 10 80 90 90
LAKE ROBERTS 35 48 35 46 / 10 80 90 90
HURLEY 37 53 38 50 / 30 90 90 90
CLIFF 36 54 39 52 / 20 80 90 90
MULE CREEK 35 52 37 48 / 10 80 90 90
FAYWOOD 41 51 41 50 / 20 90 90 90
ANIMAS 45 57 44 54 / 50 90 90 90
HACHITA 44 56 43 54 / 50 90 90 90
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 59 43 54 / 50 90 90 90
CLOVERDALE 46 51 43 47 / 60 90 90 100
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page