218
FXUS64 KEPZ 311212
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
612 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS. VERY SPOTTY, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE GILA REGION
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE ARIZONA, BUT SNEAKING INTO THE BOOTHEEL
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY VIRGA AGAIN WITH VERY ISOLATED MEASURABLE
PRECIP. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN A
FEW PLACES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO UTAH AND WESTERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, CARRYING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT
APPROACHES WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS, MOSTLY
WITH LIGHT PRECIP, WILL DEVELOP IN THE GILA BY LATE MORNING,
SPREADING INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWLAND DESERTS, WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO START LOFTING
BLOWING DUST ACROSS A BROADER AREA.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO POP UP AROUND 19Z IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND GILA REGION. MORE
ACTIVITY POPS UP AROUND MID AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. KDMN AND KTCS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A SHOWER
TODAY BUT VERY LITTLE WILL BE SEEN AT THE SURFACE. LOW END
BREEZINESS OUT OF THE WEST WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
STAYING SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
CRITICAL MIN RHS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT LOWLANDS TODAY
WITH RHS JUST ABOVE CRITICAL WEST OF DEMING. MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL
BE 20-25%. LOW END BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY WITH 20 FOOT WINDS OF
5-13 MPH. VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. LOW END CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY, MOSTLY
JUST FOR THE AREA MOUNTAINS. LITTLE BIT BETTER MOISTURE MAKES IT'S
WAY INTO THE AREA, ALLOWING ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS TO BE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (EXCEPT THE LOWER RGV OF HUDSPETH COUNTY) WITH
VALUES GENERALLY 20-25% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 35-45% IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
WITH WESTERLY 20 FT WINDS OF 15-20 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS AND 20-25
MPH IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND CRITICAL MIN RHS RETURN THURSDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWLAND RHS WILL BE 10-15% AND 18-22% IN THE
AREA MOUNTAINS. LOW END BREEZES WITH 20 FT WINDS OF 8-15 MPH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN SATURDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS EASTERLY BECOMING BREEZY WITH THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 80 53 82 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 57 79 51 80 / 0 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 55 76 44 79 / 10 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 75 43 80 / 10 30 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 43 53 34 57 / 10 50 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 74 46 80 / 10 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 64 39 71 / 20 40 0 0
DEMING 55 76 44 81 / 10 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 71 41 78 / 20 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 78 53 81 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 81 45 83 / 0 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 59 86 51 86 / 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 52 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 60 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 58 76 49 81 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 77 52 80 / 10 10 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 74 40 80 / 10 10 0 0
HATCH 53 77 42 82 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 78 49 83 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 76 45 79 / 10 10 10 0
MAYHILL 46 67 37 72 / 0 40 10 0
MESCALERO 42 63 33 68 / 10 50 20 0
TIMBERON 42 63 35 66 / 0 30 10 0
WINSTON 44 65 33 73 / 10 40 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 71 41 78 / 20 30 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 73 38 80 / 10 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 63 30 70 / 20 50 0 0
HURLEY 48 68 38 73 / 20 20 0 0
CLIFF 44 70 37 78 / 20 50 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 66 33 73 / 20 50 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 68 41 74 / 20 20 0 0
ANIMAS 54 73 44 80 / 20 20 0 0
HACHITA 54 73 44 80 / 20 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 75 45 80 / 20 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 69 44 74 / 20 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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