501
FXUS64 KEPZ 251759
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1159 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY, SPREADING WEST TO EAST.
- STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND PLENTIFUL LIGHTNING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST ALSO POSSIBLE.
- DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WORK WEEK DUE TO DRYLINE INTRUSIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS (58+ MPH) FROM OUTFLOWS
AND SUB-SEVERE HAIL (<1"). BLOWING DUST FROM GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN NEAR DUST PRONE AREAS. BY EARLY TONIGHT,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE ONGOING BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA. A MUCH LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE PACNW TUESDAY
MORNING WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY
OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS LIKE THE GILA REGION, SACRAMENTO MTNS, AND
THE SAN ANDRES.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING THE AREA IN DIFFLUENT FLOW BUT MUCH DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL HAVE PUSHED IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
DRYLINE PUSHES WESTWARD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE IS FURTHER TO THE EAST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN AREAS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES THAT AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT.
MOISTURE SNEAKS IN AGAIN AND PUSHES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN FAR EASTERN AREAS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
CAN STAY IN THE AREA.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TAME THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS EACH DAY AROUND 10-15 MPH THAT RELAXES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR SEASONAL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. IN ADDITION, PATCHY BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE
FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
ALSO CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES. STORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH
AFTER DARK AND WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF TERMINALS LATER
THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
GENERALLY LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO WIND SPEEDS STAYING
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON MOSTLY FOCUSING OVER THE
AREA MOUNTAINS. MIN RHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NM WITH VALUES OF 6-10% BUT MUCH HIGHER MIN RHS
WILL BE FOUND THE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU GO INTO NEW MEXICO.
THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL SEE RHS OF AROUND 40-45%. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BREEZES AT 5-10 MPH. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, A
MOISTURE BOUNDARY (DRYLINE) WILL PUSH MOISTURE IN FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY
GETS SHOVED EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE
MAKING A WESTWARD PUSH OVERNIGHT AND PUSH EASTWARD EACH
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS BUT ELSEWHERE WILL
STAY DRY. MIN RHS STAY CRITICAL EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THROUGHOUT THE LOWLANDS (6-12%) AND NEAR CRITICAL IN THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS (18-20%).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 61 87 61 90 / 50 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 81 53 85 / 60 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 52 85 53 88 / 40 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 81 55 87 / 80 30 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 59 41 66 / 90 50 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 82 54 86 / 60 20 20 0
SILVER CITY 50 78 49 82 / 10 10 0 0
DEMING 53 89 54 91 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 55 86 54 87 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 86 61 89 / 40 0 0 0
DELL CITY 55 82 53 89 / 60 50 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 90 59 93 / 70 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 79 55 84 / 50 10 0 0
FABENS 58 89 57 92 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 85 56 89 / 30 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 84 61 88 / 60 20 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 52 83 52 87 / 60 10 10 0
HATCH 53 87 52 90 / 40 10 10 0
COLUMBUS 58 89 61 91 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 81 54 86 / 70 20 0 0
MAYHILL 46 69 43 78 / 90 60 20 0
MESCALERO 45 70 44 76 / 80 40 20 0
TIMBERON 44 67 42 75 / 90 40 10 0
WINSTON 43 74 43 81 / 60 50 20 0
HILLSBORO 53 81 53 84 / 40 20 10 0
SPACEPORT 50 82 49 88 / 60 20 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 78 44 81 / 20 10 0 0
HURLEY 48 81 48 83 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 51 85 49 89 / 10 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 49 81 48 84 / 10 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 81 50 84 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 54 86 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 86 55 89 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 86 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 53 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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