218
FXUS64 KEPZ 311720
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1120 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FOR EL
PASO METRO AND LOWER VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- INCREASING MOISTURE STARTING TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
- DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN STARTING NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
ONE MORE TYPICAL LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE TYPE DAY FOR MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWLANDS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE A MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH TO ABOUT THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BUT WILL GET MIXED OUT MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER MID/UPPER MOISTURE IS STILL WAY OUT IN
EASTERN TX AND IT WILL BE TOUGH TO DRAW THIS INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK. MONDAY COULD BE THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY IN EL
PASO BUT FOR NOW KEPT HIGH AT 99 DEGREES WITH SOME LOWER VALLEY
AREAS GETTING ABOVE 100. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY 100 DEGREE DAY
FOR AWHILE AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE BAJA REGION
AND ACROSS THE BORDERLAND.
THE UPPER LOW MOVING NE THROUGH THE WEEK WILL DRAW IN AT LEAST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SACS MONDAY BUT EAST OF THE RGV TUE AND
AREAWIDE WED-FRI WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING WED. THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL COME ON WED AS WELL WITH SOME DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR.
COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. PW'S GET TO AROUND 1" WED AS WELL AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBLE RESULT. STORM MOTIONS ARE STILL 10-15KTS,
BUT SOME BACK-BUILDING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACS COULD RESULT IN
THE BIGGEST FLOODING CONCERN, ESPECIALLY AROUND RECENT BURN SCARS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING BACK DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP TOWARDS AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
P6SM SKC-FEW100-120 THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AOB 12KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS AROUND KDMN AND
KTCS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TO ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UNDER
12KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE A SOME ADDED MOISTURE IN THE SACS AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER MOISTURE MOVES TO THE THE RGV
FOR TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO THE EAST.
COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY WED AND CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY. WED WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR STRONG STORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 99 72 96 / 0 0 0 30
SIERRA BLANCA 63 94 66 89 / 0 10 10 60
LAS CRUCES 62 95 65 93 / 0 0 0 30
ALAMOGORDO 64 96 68 91 / 0 10 0 70
CLOUDCROFT 48 73 50 69 / 0 20 10 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 95 65 92 / 0 0 0 60
SILVER CITY 56 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 30
DEMING 55 97 63 96 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 56 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 97 70 94 / 0 0 0 30
DELL CITY 59 97 63 90 / 0 20 10 60
FORT HANCOCK 66 100 70 98 / 0 0 10 50
LOMA LINDA 62 91 65 87 / 0 10 10 50
FABENS 64 99 68 97 / 0 0 10 40
SANTA TERESA 60 95 66 93 / 0 0 0 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 69 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 30
JORNADA RANGE 59 95 62 92 / 0 0 0 40
HATCH 58 98 66 94 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 61 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 60 95 66 90 / 0 10 10 50
MAYHILL 53 86 55 78 / 0 30 10 90
MESCALERO 49 84 55 79 / 0 20 10 90
TIMBERON 48 81 52 76 / 0 10 10 70
WINSTON 49 87 56 82 / 0 0 0 70
HILLSBORO 59 93 65 89 / 0 0 0 40
SPACEPORT 55 96 63 91 / 0 0 0 50
LAKE ROBERTS 41 88 47 87 / 0 0 0 40
HURLEY 54 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 47 95 50 93 / 0 0 0 30
MULE CREEK 43 90 48 89 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 55 91 61 88 / 0 0 0 30
ANIMAS 57 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 57 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 57 95 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 55 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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