853
FXUS64 KEPZ 100534
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1134 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT, INCREASING IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
- BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER IN EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES WILL BE
BETWEEN 6 AM AND 11 AM.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND MAY REMAIN
GUSTY ALONG EAST-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES, INCLUDING NORTHEAST EL
PASO, LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- NO CHANCE OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BRING THE LOWLANDS BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
RADAR HAS BEEN ACTIVE THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF ECHOES, BUT MUCH
OF IT IS VIRGA AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY (0.26" PWAT ON
THE 00Z SOUNDING). SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO HAS MOISTENED UP ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND, MOSTLY FROM "DEEPER"
CONVECTION (WITH A SURPRISINGLY HIGH AMOUNT OF CG LIGHTNING IN THE
BOOTHEEL). AMOUNTS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN UNDER 0.10 INCHES, AND SOME
LIGHTER AMOUNTS HAVE REACHED THE GROUND ACROSS THE GILA REGION
TOO.
SPOTTY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH HAVE ALSO OCCURRED DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING, BUT THEY'VE BEEN EASING UP AS THE LOW LEVELS
MODIFY AND BECOME MOISTER. COULD STILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30-35
MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NM AND FAR WEST
TEXAS WHERE WE'RE STILL ON THE DRIER SIDE, BUT AGAIN, IT'LL BE
SPOTTY AND BRIEF, WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS GENERALLY PREVAILING.
SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING
INTO THE EL PASO AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT WITHOUT MUCH CONSISTENCY.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OF COURSE COME WITH THE DEEPER
FORCING AS THE UPPER LOW ROLLS INTO NORTHERN SONORA AND DPVA
INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IN ELP LOOKS TO BE AROUND 14-17Z (8 AM - 11 AM) AS A
BAND OF RAIN AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. STEADIER PRECIP CHANCES AND OVERALL HIGHER QPF
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE PRECIP WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN, AND BECOME STEADIER, ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON, AS THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. YOU COULD MAKE A
NITPICKY ARGUMENT THAT A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS
WELL, BUT THE MAIN DRIVER WILL THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON. ANY BLOWING DUST WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT GIVEN THE HUMIDITY AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE, AND
THE MORE W TO WNW WIND DIRECTION. BLOWING DUST HAS FOOLED US
BEFORE THOUGH...THIS JUST ISN'T THE IDEAL SET UP FOR IT, AND NOT
THE BEST WIND DIRECTION FAVORING DUST AT EL PASO EITHER.
WINDS MAY STAY GUSTY, MOST LIKELY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
EAST OF THE ORGANS AND FRANKLINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW 40-45 KNOT WINDS DEVELOPING JUST BELOW A MOUNTAINTOP
INVERSION BETWEEN 06-10Z WED.
SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOOK HIGH...ABOVE 9000 FEET UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON'S TROUGH PASSAGE, THEN DROPPING TO AROUND 8,500 FEET.
BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A "THICK" LAYER OF MIXED PRECIP, AND WITH
MARCH SUN ANGLES, ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLUSHY COATING AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF CLOUDCROFT APPEARS HIGHLY DOUBTFUL.
LIGHTER WNW TO NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO THE MID/UPPER-70S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. WE'LL GENERALLY STAY IN QUIET NW FLOW ALOFT, EAST OF A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PROMOTING A SLOW WARM UP
INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE SUGGESTS STRONGER
RIDGING BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, SLOWLY
MOISTENING UP THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH DAWN. COULD STILL SEE SOME
ERRATIC GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS WHERE DRIER
AIR STILL LINGERS (MAINLY EAST OF DMN).
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHTNING OUT IN SW NEW MEXICO, BUT
PROBABILITIES AT DMN ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES, WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL COME TOWARDS MORNING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WE'LL HAVE HAD SOME TIME TO
MOISTEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL MOST LIKELY TO PREVAIL, KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS AS THE PROBABILITIES ARE STILL AROUND 20
PERCENT AT THE TAF SITES, AND ANYTHING WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
LEE TROUGHING WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND WINDS
COULD APPROACH THE LOWER END OF AWW CRITERIA AT ELP IN THE
AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE VIRGA-INDUCED GUSTY WINDS, THE AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BE STEADIER ONCE THEY SET IN.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-45 KNOTS DEVELOPING JUST ABOVE
MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL AT ELP AFTER 03Z WED, SO WINDS MAY DIMINISH IN
THE EVENING, THEN RAMP BACK UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE AT MEETING AWW CRITERIA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MON NIGHT THRU TUE,
KNOCKING ERCS BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE 50TH PERCENTILE. WINDS GET A
BIT BREEZIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN HUMIDITY FROM YESTERDAY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR TUE AM, DIMINISHING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. W WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUE PM,
STAYING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING ON WED. CALMER
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AS TEMPERATURES WARM
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
ZERO AND NO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. FUELS RETURN TO THEIR DRYING TREND ON WED, BECOMING
MORE OF AN ISSUE THROUGH MID-MARCH.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% TODAY AND WED-THU, 35-65% ON TUE.
VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MON, THEN FAIR TO VERY
GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 64 49 78 / 40 80 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 64 43 73 / 30 80 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 61 43 74 / 40 80 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 64 39 78 / 40 80 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 44 31 55 / 30 80 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 50 67 47 76 / 50 50 20 0
SILVER CITY 42 53 39 69 / 60 80 20 0
DEMING 48 63 44 79 / 50 90 10 0
LORDSBURG 44 59 41 73 / 70 90 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 63 49 78 / 40 80 10 0
DELL CITY 48 70 39 76 / 20 30 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 70 47 80 / 30 80 0 0
LOMA LINDA 48 59 43 72 / 30 80 10 0
FABENS 51 67 48 80 / 30 80 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 61 46 77 / 40 90 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 63 49 78 / 40 90 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 63 40 78 / 40 90 10 0
HATCH 47 67 42 79 / 50 80 20 0
COLUMBUS 49 63 48 77 / 50 80 10 0
OROGRANDE 47 62 40 76 / 40 80 10 0
MAYHILL 42 59 39 66 / 20 60 10 0
MESCALERO 41 56 34 66 / 30 50 20 0
TIMBERON 42 53 35 63 / 30 80 10 0
WINSTON 40 59 36 71 / 50 70 20 0
HILLSBORO 46 63 46 75 / 60 80 30 0
SPACEPORT 45 64 39 77 / 50 70 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 39 55 35 71 / 60 90 30 0
HURLEY 41 57 39 72 / 60 60 20 0
CLIFF 43 61 36 76 / 80 70 10 0
MULE CREEK 42 57 36 72 / 80 80 10 0
FAYWOOD 45 56 42 73 / 70 60 20 0
ANIMAS 45 60 41 73 / 70 90 10 0
HACHITA 45 59 42 74 / 60 70 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 59 40 74 / 60 80 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 52 39 70 / 80 90 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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