585
FXUS64 KEPZ 311131
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
531 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE A BIT FOR MONDAY, AGAIN FAVORING WESTERN
AREAS. MOSTLY DRY FOR MIDWEEK, THEN TURNING MORE ACTIVE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR STORMS TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY AS THE MONSOON HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MID-MS RIVER
VALLEY. CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER BEFORE PUSHING NORTH BY MON AM.
PWS INCREASE A BIT ON MON AREA-WIDE (1-1.1" FOR KELP) AS THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS W OF THE DIVIDE, MAINLY IN THE
BOOTHEEL. THERE IS SOME FORCING TOMORROW WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WITHIN SW FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS, INCLUDING EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
OUT EAST. A SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE RGV (BETTER SE FLOW TO THE EAST AND W FLOW TO THE WEST).
THIS COULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MON NIGHT AS
REFLECTED BY SEVERAL HRRR RUNS, PROGRESSING NORTHWARD BEFORE
FIZZLING TUE AM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER HIGH FOCUSING OVER THE
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, KEEPING MUCH OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND
WEST OF US. LOW MTN STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD AS
THE LOWLANDS STAY MAINLY DRY. WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE HIGH LOOKS TO CENTRALIZE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AND REINVIGORATE THE MOISTURE PLUME. AREAS TO THE
WEST APPEAR BEST SET UP FOR STORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO
END THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, PWS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL INTRODUCTION OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS SCOOPED UP INTO THE REGION,
BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED.
TEMPS WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND HIGHS OF 95-100F ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ON TUE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEK MAINLY FROM THE W.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START POPPING UP AROUND MID-DAY TODAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FEW HOURS AFTERWARDS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. KDMN AND KTCS HAS THE BEST SHOT TO SEE A
STORM THIS AFTERNOON, BUT KLRU COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A STORM TOO.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS, WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTS TO 15-20KT POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2026
STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS OVER THE AREA
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NM. FOR TODAY, EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
AREA MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
EXPECTED IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS WITH HARDLY ANY ACTIVITY IN THE
LOWLANDS. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, STORMS WILL STILL BE FOCUSED OVER
THE AREA MOUNTAINS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. DURING THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR COUPLED WITH LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 14-25% ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25-35% THIS
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND ONWARD, MIN RHS WILL BE 18-25% IN THE
LOWLANDS AND 35-45% IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 97 74 99 / 20 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 94 67 94 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 96 68 97 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 96 70 97 / 20 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 72 52 73 / 20 40 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 93 70 94 / 20 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 86 61 88 / 20 10 0 0
DEMING 67 96 67 97 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 92 66 93 / 20 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 97 76 98 / 20 0 10 0
DELL CITY 70 98 71 99 / 10 10 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 72 100 74 101 / 10 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 67 90 68 91 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 71 98 73 99 / 20 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 71 95 72 96 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 96 73 97 / 20 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 95 69 96 / 20 10 0 0
HATCH 70 99 69 100 / 20 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 71 96 73 97 / 20 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 94 68 95 / 20 0 10 0
MAYHILL 57 85 57 85 / 20 50 0 30
MESCALERO 55 84 56 84 / 20 40 0 10
TIMBERON 54 82 55 83 / 20 20 0 10
WINSTON 57 84 58 85 / 30 40 0 10
HILLSBORO 67 93 66 94 / 20 20 0 10
SPACEPORT 68 95 67 96 / 20 10 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 85 55 86 / 20 10 0 10
HURLEY 61 90 62 91 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 64 93 64 95 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 88 61 90 / 20 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 64 89 65 91 / 20 10 0 0
ANIMAS 65 91 66 92 / 40 10 10 10
HACHITA 65 91 66 92 / 30 10 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 90 65 91 / 40 30 20 10
CLOVERDALE 61 83 63 85 / 40 20 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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