708
FXUS64 KEPZ 242323
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
523 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AROUND EL PASO AND
LIKELY PUSHING UP INTO OTERO COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING GIVEN HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND VERY
SATURATED CONDITIONS. BUT OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE FAR
MORE SCATTERED THAN LAST NIGHT.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR
DONA ANA, OTERO, EL PASO, AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED, BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS HIGHLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG RUN OFF DUE TO SATURATED GROUND.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
- QUIETER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MORE MOISTURE ARRIVING MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, POSSIBLY WITH SOME TROPICAL REMNANTS INVOLVED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN EASTERN TEXAS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL FUNNEL ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DONA ANA COUNTY, OTERO COUNTY, EL PASO COUNTY, AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY ARE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE UP IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FROM CHIHUAHUA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THESE REGIONS ARE STILL
UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAIN ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS WAVE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
EXAMINED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, AS THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS
HAVE A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL HITTING LUNA, SIERRA, AND WESTERN
DONA ANA COUNTY BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FROM SONORA AND ARIZONA WILL ENTER SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN
FROM 1.2" TO 1.0". ALL THE SAME, THE 12Z HRRR HAS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HIDALGO, LUNA, AND GRANT COUNTIES
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH I AM SKEPTICAL IF
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE EASTERN REACHES OF OUR REGION WILL SEE
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL THERE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO BE CALM AND WARM AS A
RIDGE HANGS OVERHEAD. THEN, SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MONDAY
IS WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THE REGION WILL GET, AS WELL AS IF THE REGION WILL SEE ANY
IMPACTS FROM POLO; GFS IS TRENDING WETTER, ECMWF IS TRENDING
DRIER. IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL IF POLO'S REMNANTS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION, BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE ARE WATCHING CLOSELY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
ISOLATED TSRA ALONG A KELP-KROW LINE THIS EVENING, WITH SKIES SCT-
BKN070CB. SKC-FEW080 ACROSS SW NM. ADDITIONAL TS MOVING NE OUT OF
CHIHUAHUA AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, LIKELY AFFECTING KELP DIRECTLY
BETWEEN 04-07Z. TEMPORARY IFR VIS DUE TO TSRA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VMC EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 10Z FRIDAY
MORNING WITH REDUCED STORM COVERAGE ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTIFUL TODAY AS MIN RHS ARE IN THE
MID 40S-MID 60S IN THE LOWLANDS AND BLACK RANGE AND UP TO 95% IN
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FAVORS AREAS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
UP FROM CHIHUAHUA INTO EL PASO, HUDSPETH, OTERO, AND DONA ANA
COUNTIES. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY IMPACT
LUNA AND SIERRA COUNTIES IN THE LATE EVENING. MIN RHS WILL FALL
TO THE MID 30S BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH A RETURN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY INCREASE
MIN RHS AGAIN. WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST, AND VENTILATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 80 63 83 / 80 30 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 80 59 82 / 80 30 30 10
LAS CRUCES 60 77 60 81 / 70 30 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 78 60 82 / 90 60 30 0
CLOUDCROFT 45 58 45 62 / 90 70 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 60 75 59 80 / 90 50 10 0
SILVER CITY 55 73 55 78 / 80 20 10 0
DEMING 58 79 59 83 / 70 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 60 79 61 83 / 50 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 80 63 83 / 80 20 10 0
DELL CITY 63 81 61 85 / 80 50 40 10
FORT HANCOCK 65 86 65 88 / 80 20 30 10
LOMA LINDA 59 75 59 77 / 80 40 20 10
FABENS 64 83 63 86 / 80 20 20 0
SANTA TERESA 62 78 62 83 / 70 20 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 78 64 82 / 90 50 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 77 60 81 / 90 50 10 0
HATCH 61 79 62 84 / 90 40 10 0
COLUMBUS 63 81 63 85 / 60 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 61 77 60 80 / 80 50 20 0
MAYHILL 53 73 50 78 / 100 60 20 10
MESCALERO 50 69 50 73 / 90 70 20 0
TIMBERON 49 66 49 71 / 100 70 50 0
WINSTON 53 70 50 75 / 80 50 10 0
HILLSBORO 58 76 58 81 / 90 30 10 0
SPACEPORT 58 75 58 80 / 90 50 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 51 74 50 78 / 80 20 10 0
HURLEY 55 74 55 79 / 80 20 10 0
CLIFF 59 81 57 85 / 70 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 56 77 56 81 / 70 20 0 0
FAYWOOD 57 74 57 79 / 80 20 10 0
ANIMAS 60 81 62 85 / 40 20 10 0
HACHITA 59 79 61 84 / 40 10 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 82 61 86 / 40 10 10 10
CLOVERDALE 58 81 59 83 / 30 10 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO
COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW
7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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