172
FXUS64 KEPZ 140453
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1053 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- SUNDAY WILL BE THE REGION'S BEST CHANCE TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THROUGH MONDAY, BUT TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONVERGING JUST EAST OF EL PASO AND OVER THE
TULAROSA BASIN ARE FINDING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD TRY AND POP UP HERE AND THERE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE IN NM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL, AS ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR (IT'S QUITE THE MESS OUT THERE WITH
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES!)
OTHERWISE EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST INTO THE SACRAMENTOS, OTERO MESA, AND HUDSPETH COUNTY.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED, PERHAPS
OVER THE OTERO MESA AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING.
OTHERWISE, TOMORROW (SUNDAY) EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA AS STEADIER EAST FLOW ENHANCES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH
EASTERLY FLOW REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MIDDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS NEW MEXICO, EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WILL HELP
TRIGGER AND FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE'S A FAIR CHANCE WE COULD SET THINGS UP FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MESILLA VALLEY AND EL
PASO AREA.
SPOTTIER CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS WE STAY IN
FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SONORA AND ARIZONA.
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS LOOK TO SETTLE BACK IN FROM TUESDAY.
WED (AND PERHAPS THU) WILL LIKELY PUSH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS IN
EL PASO AND AND DOWN THE LOWER VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE FOR VARIABLE AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ELP AND LRU. COULD STILL POP A BRIEF
SHOWER AROUND ELP THROUGH ABOUT 07Z, BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS TO THE
EAST AND HEADING AWAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AREA WIDE TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY AFTER 22Z IN THE LOWLANDS, THOUGH
THERE'S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF EARLIER CONVECTION AT ELP (TOO LOW
FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RH VALUES 15-20% OF HIGHER WITH
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT, WITH A
DOWNTICK ON MONDAY. HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
STARTING TUESDAY, AND PARTICULARLY WED/THU, THOUGH WITH TYPICAL
LIGHTER WINDS BRING MID-JUNE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 97 72 92 / 30 40 60 20
SIERRA BLANCA 67 92 63 86 / 30 30 70 40
LAS CRUCES 70 96 64 90 / 20 30 50 10
ALAMOGORDO 71 94 65 90 / 60 30 60 20
CLOUDCROFT 53 69 49 69 / 70 60 40 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 71 94 67 91 / 30 30 40 30
SILVER CITY 62 92 61 89 / 10 30 20 30
DEMING 70 102 65 97 / 0 20 20 20
LORDSBURG 68 98 67 95 / 10 10 20 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 96 70 91 / 20 40 60 20
DELL CITY 67 91 63 88 / 30 30 60 40
FORT HANCOCK 72 99 69 94 / 40 30 70 20
LOMA LINDA 68 87 63 84 / 40 30 50 20
FABENS 72 98 68 93 / 30 30 60 20
SANTA TERESA 71 95 66 90 / 20 40 50 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 95 71 91 / 30 40 60 10
JORNADA RANGE 69 95 64 90 / 30 30 50 10
HATCH 70 100 65 94 / 30 30 50 20
COLUMBUS 75 100 69 96 / 0 20 30 20
OROGRANDE 68 92 63 88 / 60 40 60 20
MAYHILL 56 75 54 79 / 60 70 50 60
MESCALERO 57 79 53 80 / 70 50 50 30
TIMBERON 55 77 50 76 / 70 40 60 40
WINSTON 60 86 56 85 / 30 30 30 30
HILLSBORO 68 93 63 89 / 30 30 40 50
SPACEPORT 67 95 61 90 / 30 40 50 30
LAKE ROBERTS 57 92 56 89 / 20 30 20 40
HURLEY 64 95 61 91 / 0 20 20 30
CLIFF 63 98 63 95 / 0 20 10 20
MULE CREEK 61 94 61 91 / 0 20 20 20
FAYWOOD 66 93 62 89 / 10 20 20 50
ANIMAS 66 97 66 95 / 20 20 10 10
HACHITA 67 98 64 95 / 10 10 20 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 97 65 94 / 10 20 20 10
CLOVERDALE 62 91 62 89 / 20 20 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page