823
FXUS64 KEPZ 200522
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1122 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1119 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S, NEAR DAILY RECORDS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORM
LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. DRY
CONDITIONS SPREAD AREA WIDE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY
RECYCLED MOISTURE UNDER THIS UPPER HIGH.
THE MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH LOOKS
TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF AUGUST. LOWLAND HIGHS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 98-102 DEGREE RANGE WILL RUN 8-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST AND NEAR DAILY RECORDS. CURRENTLY NO
DAILY RECORD FOR EL PASO IN THE FORECAST, BUT WERE ONLY 1-2
DEGREES OFF MOST DAYS GOING FORWARD.
FOR THURSDAY, SHORT-TERM MODELS RESOLVE AN AXIS OF
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE (PWS 1.0-1.2) ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED (20-30%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS (TIMBERON AREA)
AND BLACK RANGE/MIMBRES VALLEY WHERE TERRAIN LIFT IS STRONGEST
UNDER WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST. CANT RULE OUT SPOTTY
RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOWLAND ZONES, INCLUDING EL PASO AND WEST TEXAS.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARCE AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
MODEL CAPE IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. STORM MOTIONS WILL
MOVE WSW AT 10-15 MPH, LIKELY QUICK ENOUGH TO REDUCE FLOOD RISK
SOMEWHAT. ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY, BUT MUCH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE DRY.
UPPER HIGH DRIFTS EAST DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO A NEAR-TOTAL SHUT OFF OF MOISTURE
FLOW AND THE END OF STORM CHANCES AREA WIDE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 0.8-1.0 WILL FALL BELOW THE CLIMATE NORMALS AND
STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW WITHIN THE 400-600MB LAYER ALOFT WILL HINDER
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE PUSHED
WEST ACROSS ARIZONA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LATE-AUGUST DRYNESS AND HEAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
SKIES FEW-SCT120, SCT-BKN200 OVERNIGHT DUE TO DIMINISHING TS.
SURFACE WINDS 330-020 AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 20KT NEXT COUPLE HOURS DUE TO OUTFLOWS. LIGHT NE FLOW TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 050-100 AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. ISOLATED TSRA
ACROSS SW NM AND W TX BETWEEN 20-00Z THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPORARY
-TSRA AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AROUND TS. PROB30 TS
INCLUDED AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW AND TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM. MEANWHILE, MAINLY DRY WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. MINIMAL STORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PIVOTING BACK WEST TO
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO NEXT WEEK. FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION TODAY
AND TOMORROW BEFORE BECOMING GOOD TO VERY GOOD FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 73 101 75 102 / 0 10 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 67 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 69 99 70 100 / 0 10 20 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 98 71 98 / 0 20 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 54 76 54 75 / 0 30 10 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 99 72 99 / 10 20 20 0
SILVER CITY 63 93 63 93 / 10 30 20 10
DEMING 69 102 71 101 / 0 10 20 0
LORDSBURG 69 99 70 100 / 10 20 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 75 101 77 102 / 0 10 10 0
DELL CITY 70 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 74 104 74 104 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 70 95 70 95 / 0 10 10 0
FABENS 72 101 73 102 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 71 99 73 100 / 0 10 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 75 100 76 101 / 0 10 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 99 71 100 / 0 20 20 0
HATCH 71 102 72 103 / 0 20 20 0
COLUMBUS 74 102 75 102 / 0 10 20 0
OROGRANDE 69 98 70 99 / 0 10 10 0
MAYHILL 59 88 59 87 / 0 20 10 30
MESCALERO 58 88 58 86 / 10 40 10 40
TIMBERON 57 86 57 85 / 0 20 10 20
WINSTON 62 91 62 90 / 20 20 20 30
HILLSBORO 69 99 70 98 / 10 20 20 10
SPACEPORT 69 99 69 99 / 10 20 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 91 57 91 / 10 50 20 30
HURLEY 64 96 65 96 / 10 30 20 10
CLIFF 66 99 66 100 / 10 30 20 10
MULE CREEK 64 95 64 96 / 20 30 20 10
FAYWOOD 67 96 68 95 / 10 30 20 10
ANIMAS 70 100 70 100 / 0 20 20 0
HACHITA 69 99 70 99 / 0 20 20 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 99 70 99 / 0 10 20 0
CLOVERDALE 65 93 67 95 / 10 20 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99-GUEST
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