642
FXUS64 KMAF 261831
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
131 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. BEST
CHANCES (30-50%) ARE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND
PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND WITH 10-20% CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- STORM CHANCES WILL MAINLY BECOME CONFINED OVER AREAS WEST OF THE
PECOS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INVERTED TROUGHING FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO EXTENDING TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE GREATEST (30-40%) CHANCE OF
STORMS LIE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, THANKS TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INITIALIZE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE INTO THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY. ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF MOVING INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO AREAS ELSEWHERE WHICH WILL PROVIDE FURTHER
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS HAVE A LOW (10-15%) CHANCE IN
SEEING STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING FOR
A FEW SPOTS, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT MORE OF A FLASH FLOODING THREAT THAN
ANYTHING ELSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKINNY CAPE PROFILES,
PWATS REACHING NEAR THE 75TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE (1.2-1.35
IN), AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS SIGNAL HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT "INVERTED-V" PROFILES AND HIGH (>
1200 J/KG) DCAPE VALUES HIGHLIGHTING THE WIND GUST THREAT AND A
MICROBURST POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT, STORM COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 11PM CT/10PM MT. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MAINLY REACHING THE MID 60S TO 70S
REGIONWIDE. BY TOMORROW, GUIDANCE HAS INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE
REGION, PROVIDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN ARE
FORECASTED TO HAVE GREATEST (30-50%) PRECIPITATION CHANCE, WHILE
AREAS ELSEWHERE REMAIN LOW (10-20%). SIMILAR HAZARDS COMPARED WITH
SATURDAY'S STORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO NOT MUCH CHANGE WITHIN
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE REGION
DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING REMAIN SIMILAR AS SUNDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE MID 60S TO 70S AREAWIDE.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE
BEST MOISTURE AND ASCENT FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT STAY ALONG
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS AND THE
AXIS OF SAID RIDGE MOVES OVER TEXAS/THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES DROP A FAIR AMOUNT
COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES INCH TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST. UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S HANG ON IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT, BUT HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE JUST 10-
20%.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION AND THE PATTERN TAKES ON A MORE CLASSIC MONSOON LOOK WITH
THE RIDGE NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS. OVERALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO LEAD TO A RETURN OF BROAD,
BUT LOW(10-30%) RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. LOWS EACH NIGHT REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE WEST AND SETTLING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TS PROB30S WERE IMPLEMENTED ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN STORE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, THOUGH THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THESE STORMS WILL BE. STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES AFTER SUNSET (02-04Z) THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 93 73 95 / 10 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 71 93 71 92 / 10 10 0 20
DRYDEN 74 93 74 95 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 92 72 94 / 10 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 69 87 67 84 / 0 10 10 30
HOBBS 70 92 70 91 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 62 85 63 85 / 0 50 10 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 93 73 94 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 74 91 73 93 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 73 93 73 94 / 10 10 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...11
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