145
FXUS64 KMAF 220011 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019
UPDATE
SEE PUBLIC DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
WILL UPDATE TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS TO EXPIRE.
TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
12
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 515 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT UNDER AN ABUNDANCE
OF MID/HIGH CLOUD. BRISK SW SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO W AS A PAC FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE, THEN TO NW AND BECOMING GUSTY BY AROUND 18Z
TUE AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019/
DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE DEPICTS AN ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS E OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. STILL TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT MIXING
HAS INHIBITED/DELAYED WIND SOME AND LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SE NM WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. NAM12 CROSS SECTIONS
DOES SHOW MTN WAVE SIGNATURE THAT PERSISTS THROUGH 12Z/TUE AND
GUST UP HIGH IN THE GDP MTNS ARE 71-77 MPH. WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED? MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE E UNTIL AFTER 09Z/22 AND
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PB WILL BACK TO THE S THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W AROUND 12Z WITH INITIAL PACIFIC FRONT. THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING IN THE NRN CWFA AROUND 18Z/TUE AND
HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS MON PM.
BASICALLY IT WILL BE ON THE BREEZY/WINDY SIDE THROUGH TUE
EVENING IN MOST AREAS. LIGHT NW SURFACE WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A COLD WED AM, L20S-U20S SE NM/PB AND
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S WED WITH YET ANOTHER DRY
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE THUR PM ACROSS THE NRN CWFA,
POSSIBLY EARLY PER ECMWF. MSLP GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDY POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS AND LOOK LIKES ANOTHER COLD MORNING FRI. PRETTY LARGE
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET FRI SO A BLENDED FORECAST
DOES SEEM BEST. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST SAT WITH A QUICK WARM UP
SUN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MON.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WX MATERIALIZING ACROSS SE NM WHERE RFTI OF 5-6 ARE
OBSERVED. FIRE DANGER IS HIGH/VERY HIGH IN PARTS OF EDDY CO
REPRESENTING IA POTENTIAL IN GRASSES, WHILE THE MORE ROBUST
REPRESENTATION OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL AS SEEN IN ERC-G IS
STILL AT OR BELOW 50TH PERCENTILE. LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WX WILL
POSSIBLE TUE PM FROM S OF MIDLAND INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS/BIG
BEND. HAVING SAID THAT THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE GOING TO DRY AND ERC-G
WILL CONTINUE DRY, CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE SOON?
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 44 58 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 41 53 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 42 66 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 45 58 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 36 46 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 38 52 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 36 53 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 44 58 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 43 58 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 41 58 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
44/12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page