833
FXUS64 KMAF 251830
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
130 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM LEADS TO STRONG WINDS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY, WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
- RAIN CHANCES (10-40%) BEGIN TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES TREND
DOWNWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST, SET TO MAKE LANDFALL THIS EVENING JUST SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA,
KEEPING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE COMBINING WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WARMING
COMPONENT TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND 10 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
TONIGHT, A 30 KT WESTERLY LLJ WILL KEEP MIXING IN PLAY, COMBINING
WITH A FETCH OF HIGH CLOUD TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ~ 10-15 F ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES, LEESIDE
TROUGHING ON THE FRONT RANGE WILL INDUCE INCREASING WESTERLIES OVER
THE REGION, DEVELOPING A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE OVER THE GUADALUPES
AND HIGH WINDS BY LATE MORNING. THIS EVENT COULD LAST INTO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, AS THE HREF FOLLOWS THE FIRST TROUGH WITH A
SECONDARY TROUGH MONDAY. THUS, WE'VE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO
A LONG-FUSED WARNING, WHICH SUCCESSIVE SHIFTS CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED.
WE'VE ALSO ISSUED SHORTER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR ADJACENT PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL ADD ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO SUNDAY'S HIGHS OVER TODAY'S, FOR PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH ALL THIS WILL COME CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS, THE
DETAILS OF WHICH CAN BE ASCERTAINED IN THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE BALLPARK OF TONIGHT'S, IF
NOT A DEGREE OR SO COOLER DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
REMAINS OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE, A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS, DROPPING MONDAY'S HIGHS 2-6 DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY'S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA DESPITE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT
THE MOMENT. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
MAINTAIN NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS MONDAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS).
BY TUESDAY, WINDS DECREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALLOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM
MONDAY'S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY
MIDWEEK. THIS YIELDS TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOCATIONS OUT WEST. RAIN CHANCES (10-
20%) RETURN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WESTWARD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER
ANALYSIS DEPICTS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, FURTHER
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (GENERALLY 10-40%). HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE REMAINS GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN MUCH OF THE DETAILS AT
THE MOMENT AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING TRENDS. WITH THAT
SAID, LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER YIELD COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN WESTERLY FLOW, GUSTY
AT TIMES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR A CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT A FEW
DETAILS ARE WORTH MENTIONING. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS,
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, AND THE SURROUNDING PLAINS IN
CULBERSON/EDDY COUNTIES DUE TO MINRHS BELOW 15%, WITH 20FT WINDS
NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20 MPH. AS SUCH, A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT CONTINUES FOR THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD MITIGATE GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH IF ANY FIRES
WERE TO IGNITE. ALTHOUGH RECENT WETTING RAINS HAVE IMPROVED ERCS
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS, FUELS REMAIN DRY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER
SIMILAR LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN STRONGER WINDS AND
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS. ERCS LOOK TO RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY WITH NO RELIEVING RAINS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-
TERM. AS SUCH, WE HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE AREAS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY
AS WELL. HOWEVER, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR NOW TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TREND
DOWNWARD AND MINRHS UPWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 62 96 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 62 93 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 64 98 68 98 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 64 97 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 83 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 60 91 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 51 87 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 65 95 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 63 95 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR ANDREWS-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ SUNDAY TO 10 PM CDT
/9 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
EASTERN CULBERSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CENTRAL LEA-NORTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99
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