091
FXUS64 KMAF 181936
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2019
DISCUSSION
VERY STRONG HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAKNESS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS SOUTH TO THE
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS). THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK SO SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND STORMS WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO PUSH EASTWARD MUCH FROM NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AREAWIDE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. PREFERRED TO
MOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH QUICKER THAN NBM
GUIDANCE BASED ON THE PROJECTED STRENGTH OF THE FRONT SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD DECREASE QUICKER BY NEXT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 75 103 74 103 / 10 20 20 10
DRYDEN 75 100 74 99 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 75 100 74 100 / 10 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 73 95 73 95 / 20 20 20 30
HOBBS 73 101 72 99 / 10 10 20 0
MARFA 63 92 61 92 / 20 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 101 75 100 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA 75 101 74 100 / 0 0 10 0
WINK 76 104 75 103 / 10 10 20 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
27/12
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