831
FXUS64 KMAF 221948
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
148 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 SUNDAY MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS
NEAR 50 DEGREES. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY,
BUT COLD AIR IS ON IT'S WAY OUT AS WE SPEAK. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT OF BELOW FREEZING CONDITIONS, IT MAY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AGAIN. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY, BUT THE
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS <20%. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH, ARCTIC AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST AND LEAVE US WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S NEARLY EVERYWHERE. THIS IS ONLY THE
BEGINNING OF A VERY NICE, WARM WEEK AHEAD!
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST/WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS MONDAY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGHING
UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP WARM MONDAY'S
HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, LEA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOME PLACES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE A ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
SPOTS IN THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE COULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S.
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHERLY BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THOUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SURFACE TROUGHING AGAIN KEEPS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE COULD EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH A
COUPLE SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 90S.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH
OF OUR AREA, RESULTING IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S FOR MOST, WITH THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND MUCH OF LEA
COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO POTENTIALLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE COULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. DESPITE MID-LEVEL
FORCING, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE REGION WILL LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
TREND COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH 70S IN THE TRANS PECOS/BIG
BEND/PRESIDIO VALLEY REGIONS. HIGHER HEIGHTS/GREATER GEOPOTENTIAL
THICKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
-GREENING
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR PREVAILS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 28 72 34 80 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 27 73 35 80 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 29 79 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 34 76 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 36 66 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 28 70 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 33 70 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 30 71 37 79 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 30 72 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 28 74 34 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29
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