297  
FXUS64 KMAF 161127  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
MVFR CIGS TO VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT TAF SITES WIH RADAR  
SHOWING -SHRA NEAR MAF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARY CIGS MOSTLY  
BETWEEN 015 AND 040 AGL AND BASED ON NEAR STEADY STATE CIGS SO FAR  
THIS AM WE WILL NOT COMPLICATE MATTERS. CIGS MAY BE LOWEST LATE  
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT STARTS TO OCCUR  
IN LOWER LEVELS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED
415 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER  
INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY COURTESY  
OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.  
 
AT THE SAME TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN  
ELEVATED WITH THE APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING, LARGE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. AREAS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL  
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES  
ABOVE THE COLD DOME. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND OR AREAS OF FREEZING  
DRIZZLE LOOKS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE,  
DELAWARE, DAVIS, APACHE AND GLASS MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY  
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOSE  
AREAS UNTIL 1 PM CDT/12 PM MDT FOR THOSE AREAS. THEREAFTER  
ANTICIPATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY BUT SUFFICIENT  
ENOUGH THAT ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RELEGATED TO ONLY  
THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE POPULATION CENTERS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING  
FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MARFA  
PLATEAU (INCLUDING THE CITY OF MARFA).  
 
BEYOND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO  
WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH  
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER BUT STILL  
MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION  
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST COAST.  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.  
 
CLIMATE...  
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
TO CONTINUE AT THE MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT TODAY  
THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
DATE RECORD COLD HIGH YEAR FORECAST  
 
10/16 47 1970 44  
10/17 53 1948 46  
10/18 51 1999 49  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 44 42 48 42 / 60 40 70 80  
CARLSBAD 46 43 49 43 / 30 20 30 50  
DRYDEN 49 45 52 46 / 70 50 90 70  
FORT STOCKTON 41 40 43 40 / 60 40 80 70  
GUADALUPE PASS 38 34 43 34 / 30 20 30 50  
HOBBS 44 41 45 40 / 30 20 40 60  
MARFA 40 37 43 39 / 40 20 60 60  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 44 42 46 42 / 60 40 70 80  
ODESSA 43 41 45 41 / 60 30 70 70  
WINK 45 44 47 44 / 40 20 60 70  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.  
 
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON  
FOR DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-PECOS-  
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.  
 
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS  
AREA-MARFA PLATEAU.  
 

 
 

 
 
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