297
FXUS64 KMAF 161127
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018
DISCUSSION
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
MVFR CIGS TO VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT TAF SITES WIH RADAR
SHOWING -SHRA NEAR MAF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARY CIGS MOSTLY
BETWEEN 015 AND 040 AGL AND BASED ON NEAR STEADY STATE CIGS SO FAR
THIS AM WE WILL NOT COMPLICATE MATTERS. CIGS MAY BE LOWEST LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN ISENTROPIC ASCENT STARTS TO OCCUR
IN LOWER LEVELS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 415 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018/
DISCUSSION...
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SAME TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH THE APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING, LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. AREAS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
ABOVE THE COLD DOME. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND OR AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE LOOKS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE,
DELAWARE, DAVIS, APACHE AND GLASS MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS UNTIL 1 PM CDT/12 PM MDT FOR THOSE AREAS. THEREAFTER
ANTICIPATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY BUT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH THAT ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RELEGATED TO ONLY
THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE POPULATION CENTERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING
FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MARFA
PLATEAU (INCLUDING THE CITY OF MARFA).
BEYOND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER BUT STILL
MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
CLIMATE...
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT THE MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DATE RECORD COLD HIGH YEAR FORECAST
10/16 47 1970 44
10/17 53 1948 46
10/18 51 1999 49
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 44 42 48 42 / 60 40 70 80
CARLSBAD 46 43 49 43 / 30 20 30 50
DRYDEN 49 45 52 46 / 70 50 90 70
FORT STOCKTON 41 40 43 40 / 60 40 80 70
GUADALUPE PASS 38 34 43 34 / 30 20 30 50
HOBBS 44 41 45 40 / 30 20 40 60
MARFA 40 37 43 39 / 40 20 60 60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 44 42 46 42 / 60 40 70 80
ODESSA 43 41 45 41 / 60 30 70 70
WINK 45 44 47 44 / 40 20 60 70
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-PECOS-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
AREA-MARFA PLATEAU.
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