145  
FXUS64 KMAF 220011 AAA  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
611 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
SEE PUBLIC DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WILL UPDATE TO ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW  
MEXICO PLAINS TO EXPIRE.  
 
TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TONIGHT.  
 
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.  
 
12  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 515 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AVIATION...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT UNDER AN ABUNDANCE  
OF MID/HIGH CLOUD. BRISK SW SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO W AS A PAC FRONT  
ARRIVES AROUND SUNRISE, THEN TO NW AND BECOMING GUSTY BY AROUND 18Z  
TUE AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
SATELLITE DEPICTS AN ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS E OF THE MID-LEVEL  
TROUGH. STILL TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BUT MIXING  
HAS INHIBITED/DELAYED WIND SOME AND LOW END ADVISORY CONDITIONS  
ACROSS SE NM WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. NAM12 CROSS SECTIONS  
DOES SHOW MTN WAVE SIGNATURE THAT PERSISTS THROUGH 12Z/TUE AND  
GUST UP HIGH IN THE GDP MTNS ARE 71-77 MPH. WARNING MAY NEED TO BE  
EXTENDED? MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE E UNTIL AFTER 09Z/22 AND  
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PB WILL BACK TO THE S THIS EVENING BEFORE  
TURNING W AROUND 12Z WITH INITIAL PACIFIC FRONT. THE SECONDARY  
COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING IN THE NRN CWFA AROUND 18Z/TUE AND  
HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS MON PM.  
BASICALLY IT WILL BE ON THE BREEZY/WINDY SIDE THROUGH TUE  
EVENING IN MOST AREAS. LIGHT NW SURFACE WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A COLD WED AM, L20S-U20S SE NM/PB AND  
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S WED WITH YET ANOTHER DRY  
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE THUR PM ACROSS THE NRN CWFA,  
POSSIBLY EARLY PER ECMWF. MSLP GRADIENT SUGGEST WINDY POST-FRONTAL  
CONDITIONS AND LOOK LIKES ANOTHER COLD MORNING FRI. PRETTY LARGE  
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WARM IT WILL GET FRI SO A BLENDED FORECAST  
DOES SEEM BEST. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST SAT WITH A QUICK WARM UP  
SUN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MON.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
ELEVATED FIRE WX MATERIALIZING ACROSS SE NM WHERE RFTI OF 5-6 ARE  
OBSERVED. FIRE DANGER IS HIGH/VERY HIGH IN PARTS OF EDDY CO  
REPRESENTING IA POTENTIAL IN GRASSES, WHILE THE MORE ROBUST  
REPRESENTATION OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL AS SEEN IN ERC-G IS  
STILL AT OR BELOW 50TH PERCENTILE. LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WX WILL  
POSSIBLE TUE PM FROM S OF MIDLAND INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS/BIG  
BEND. HAVING SAID THAT THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE GOING TO DRY AND ERC-G  
WILL CONTINUE DRY, CLIMBING ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE SOON?  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 44 58 26 52 / 0 0 0 0  
CARLSBAD 41 53 22 54 / 0 0 0 0  
DRYDEN 42 66 35 57 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT STOCKTON 45 58 29 54 / 0 0 0 0  
GUADALUPE PASS 36 46 24 46 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBBS 38 52 22 53 / 0 0 0 0  
MARFA 36 53 18 50 / 0 0 0 0  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 44 58 26 53 / 0 0 0 0  
ODESSA 43 58 26 53 / 0 0 0 0  
WINK 41 58 23 55 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS  
OF EDDY COUNTY.  
 
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
 

 
 
44/12  
 
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