146
FXUS64 KMAF 311055
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- MODERATE TO HIGH (50-75%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
PECOS.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER MONDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
ONCE AGAIN, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING CONTINUE
SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER, WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS LOCATED IN
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AND AN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING CLUSTER IN THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
COMPLEX IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (ESPECIALLY SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS). THAT BEING SAID, 30-
50% RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN RETAINED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOR THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WHICH IS
WHERE THE COMPLEX IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE (ASSUMING IT CAN MAINTAIN
ITSELF LONG ENOUGH).
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY NEAR/ALONG THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. RAIN CHANCES
RANGE FROM 50-75% FROM THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
TOWARDS TERRELL COUNTY AND THE BIG BEND. LOWER CHANCES (10-40%) ARE
FORECAST FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN, WHERE ONLY REMNANT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED (AT BEST). AS WITH SATURDAY, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND. THAT BEING SAID, WHAT HAPPENS MONDAY WILL AT
LEAST PARTIALLY DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY, MEANING CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY'S RAIN FORECAST IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S! AFTER LABOR DAY, THE
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE BENIGN. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM...
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
BY TUESDAY, EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, RAIN CHANCES DROP TO NEAR-ZERO ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS A DRYING TREND COMMENCES. THAT BEING SAID,
AT LEAST LOW (10-20%) CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THE NBM HAS TRENDED UP ON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED, THOUGH ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FOR MAF).
WE HAVE LET THE NBM RIDE FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NECESSARY. ENSEMBLES ALSO DEPICT A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TRAVERSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM COULD HELP PUSH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. MANY
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THAT SOLUTION IN RECENT RUNS (THOUGH AT
LEAST A MINOR COOL-DOWN IS STILL SUGGESTED). IN ANY CASE, THAT IS
YET ANOTHER THING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON, ALONG WITH ANY RAIN
CHANCES THAT MAY ACCOMPANY SUCH A SYSTEM.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
STILL MONITORING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE
WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE STRUGGLING
TO CAPTURE CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHRA THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THE DAY. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN LOCATION AND TIMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 85 67 88 64 / 40 20 10 0
CARLSBAD 86 66 86 64 / 40 20 20 0
DRYDEN 93 70 86 68 / 60 60 70 10
FORT STOCKTON 88 68 85 63 / 60 60 50 10
GUADALUPE PASS 78 62 78 62 / 60 40 30 0
HOBBS 83 63 85 62 / 40 20 10 0
MARFA 81 61 78 55 / 70 40 70 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 85 69 88 66 / 40 20 10 0
ODESSA 84 68 87 65 / 40 30 10 0
WINK 87 66 88 64 / 40 30 20 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
DAWSON-GAINES-HOWARD-MARTIN-MITCHELL-SCURRY.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA-
SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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