995
FXUS64 KMAF 212330
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
- COLD FRONTS STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THURSDAY'S
FRONT BEING STRONGER AND A LOW (<15%) CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND
MOISTURE BEGINS ITS RETURN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AS HI-RES MODELS DO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MAKING FOR ANOTHER
REMARKABLY WARM DECEMBER DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS MILD WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS, WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE REGION STARTS OFF THE
WEEK ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES TO NORTH OF THE CWA AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTHWARD LATE
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGHS NEAR 60F AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES REBOUND A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH MOST IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. IT WILL NOT BE RECORD
WARMTH (78F IS THE KMAF RECORD ON CHRISTMAS) AND IT DOES NOT LAST
LONG AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THAT NIGHT. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW (<15%) CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER
THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, BUT AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK
INSIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES END THE WEEK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH NO REAL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FG
AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. AT THIS TIME,
THE CHANCE IS LOW (20%) THAT FOG WOULD AFFECT VISIBILITY AT THE
TERMINALS. A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 41 67 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 33 70 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 43 68 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 41 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 41 63 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 35 68 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 36 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 41 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 42 68 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 36 70 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29
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