235
FXUS64 KMAF 062343
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
543 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WEST
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION. A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (GENERALLY 20-50%) CONTINUE FROM
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBDUED SCENE TODAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE AREA IS STILL LOCATED AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONTS: ONE PACIFIC FRONT ARCING FROM
SOUTHWEST TX NORTHEAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL OK, AND A MORE ZONAL
ORIENTED COLD FRONT DEVELOPING LEEWARD OF THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO
WEST KS. THE FIRST OF THESE COLD FRONTS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DRIER AIR CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 30S F LOCATED WEST OF THE SE NM-W TX
BORDER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S F TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.
DESPITE THE DRYLINE NOT ENTIRELY CLEARING THE AREA, DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE THAT INHIBITS STORM FORMATION.
WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR MUCH
OF WEST TEXAS, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA OF 35 MPH OR MORE AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 70S F MARFA PLATEAU INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS, NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN, UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO CULBERSON
COUNTY AND WESTERN EDDY COUNTY, MID TO UPPER 50S F GUADALUPES, UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S F CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON
PLATEAU, AND MID TO UPPER 80S F RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO TERRELL
COUNTY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER SE NM PLAINS AND TEENS TO 20S F ELSEWHERE BY THE
EVENING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT THE DRYLINE MAY RETREAT WEST
OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. AS WINDS DECREASE AND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE
NORTHERLY IN ADDITION TO THE DECREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ENHANCING OVERNIGHT COOLING, LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S F, 50S F
SOUTHERN BREWSTER AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES INTO TERRELL COUNTY, AND MID
TO UPPER 30S F FOR SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU AS WELL AS
NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN. NBM IS
INDICATING LOWS APPROACHING FREEZING OVER NORTHERN LEA COUNTY,
INDICATIVE OF CAA BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT.
THE SECOND AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN RESULT IN BREEZY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH NOT AS
BREEZY AS TODAY, EVEN OVER THE GUADALUPES. HOWEVER, MORE "HUMID" AIR
IN POST-FRONTAL NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE 30S F, 20S F WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN. WITH THE
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THAT LIMITS
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH RESIDUAL CAA BEHIND THE SUCCESSIVE COLD
FRONTS, HIGHS SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 60S F FOR
SE NM AND MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, MARFA
PLATEAU, AND STOCKTON PLATEAU, WITH 50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 70S
F TO 80S F MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARFA PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS. NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY BUT
DECREASE IN SPEED AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S F, 50S F RIO GRANDE
BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY, MID TO UPPER 30S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU INTO NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN, AND NEAR FREEZING NORTHERNMOST LEA COUNTY. RAIN
CHANCES STAY MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSER TO AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN BY
NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP NEAR NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVERHEAD WHILE A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SLIP INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW
50S OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF LOW MEANDERING NEAR BAJA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, WHEN IT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TOWARD OUR
AREA. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW, PROVIDING US WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
OVERALL LOOKS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH LOW TO
MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK
TO REMAIN LIGHT, SHOULD ANY RAIN FALL AT ALL. OUR BEST SHOT AT RAIN
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHEN THE UPPER LOW SWINGS OVER
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY, THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN BREEZY,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTS EASTWARD, LEAVING US UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS ALSO GAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES IN WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO REACH THE 70S, THEN THE 60S
AND 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP NEAR NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVERHEAD WHILE A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SLIP INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW
50S OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF LOW MEANDERING NEAR BAJA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, WHEN IT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TOWARD OUR
AREA. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW, PROVIDING US WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
OVERALL LOOKS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH LOW TO
MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK
TO REMAIN LIGHT, SHOULD ANY RAIN FALL AT ALL. OUR BEST SHOT AT RAIN
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHEN THE UPPER LOW SWINGS OVER
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THESE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY, THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN BREEZY,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTS EASTWARD, LEAVING US UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS ALSO GAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES IN WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO REACH THE 70S, THEN THE 60S
AND 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
VFR WILL REMAIN PREVALENT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
BETWEEN 06-10Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, BUT WE CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE KMAF TERMINAL. GUSTY W/SW WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DIMINISH AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO UP
TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE WARNING ENCOMPASSES SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO, THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS
SOUTH INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS SPREADING EAST
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LIE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS, THUS CRITICAL ATMOSPHERIC FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP AND FUELS ARE
GETTING MORE FAVORABLE FOR BURNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES SATURDAY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND EASING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 45 64 40 71 / 20 20 10 30
CARLSBAD 43 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 56 76 50 68 / 10 10 30 50
FORT STOCKTON 48 68 46 68 / 10 10 20 40
GUADALUPE PASS 43 58 41 64 / 0 0 10 10
HOBBS 40 64 36 70 / 0 0 0 20
MARFA 37 68 36 68 / 0 0 30 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 47 65 42 70 / 10 10 10 30
ODESSA 47 65 42 70 / 10 10 10 30
WINK 44 67 41 68 / 0 0 10 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
ANDREWS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN
CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-LOVING-REEVES COUNTY
PLAINS.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...21
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