869
FXUS64 KMAF 242247
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-60%) CONTINUE FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE PECOS RIVER EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EDDY COUNTY, SOUTH INTO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER WEST THAN
YESTERDAY AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THIS TRAINING EFFECT COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVELS CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH A TROUGH
TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO THE EAST, WE REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 90S. RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY ARE MUCH LIKE TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DECREASING
QUICKLY TO NEAR ZERO AS YOU GET TO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THE GOOD NEWS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE
STRUGGLES TO GET ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA KEEPING OUR
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST BREAKS DOWN SOME
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHT
HEATING BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK RETURNING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SUN-TUE
WHICH COULD BRING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
PECOS RIVER. IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE A RETURN OF WETTING RAINS TO
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND KEEP SOME OF THE GREEN UP RECENT RAINS HAVE
BROUGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT CIGS/VSBYS WILL
APPROACH MVFR AT TIMES INVOF KCNM DUE TO +SHRA. OTHERWISE, MODEST
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED, WITH A WIDESPREAD, LOW-BASED CU FIELD
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 93 72 94 / 0 10 0 10
CARLSBAD 69 81 68 86 / 60 50 40 50
DRYDEN 73 95 73 96 / 0 10 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 70 91 70 91 / 10 20 10 30
GUADALUPE PASS 64 75 63 77 / 70 70 50 60
HOBBS 69 85 68 87 / 10 20 20 30
MARFA 63 83 64 82 / 30 40 30 60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 72 93 72 94 / 0 10 10 10
ODESSA 72 91 72 92 / 0 10 10 10
WINK 71 90 71 91 / 10 10 20 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN
CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-MARFA PLATEAU-PRESIDIO VALLEY-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...44
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page