128
FXUS64 KMAF 311740
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- STRONG WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS.
- THE COMBINATION OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WINDY
CONDITIONS, AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION
TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
FORECASTED. IT HAS BEGUN SHIFTING WINDS TO A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY AND THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-20 ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S, WHILE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20 (EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS) SEE LOWS IN THE 50S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY DRY. THOSE
WHO ARE IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL SEE HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES COOLER (EVEN MORE IN FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES) THAN
YESTERDAY'S BEHIND THE FRONTAL AIRMASS TODAY. TONIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALLOWS FOR LOWS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TONIGHT'S (PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN).
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TUESDAY, WITH A 40 TO 50KT JET AT ITS BASE. THIS IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING, ALLOWING FOR
MIXING TO TRANSFER THAT MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. VERTICAL CROSS-
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER THE GUADALUPES INDICATE A
CLASSIC MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE, WITH STRONG DOWNWARD FORCING LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS. TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH WINDS OWING TO MOMENTUM TRANSFER,
WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH (BUT BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA) TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AS WELL. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE REGIONS MAY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. HIGH
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER AIR
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY LEEWARD OF THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FROM NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS
NEAR A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. SPOTS NEAR/ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
LOOKS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH
THESE PHYSICAL PROCESSES IN MIND, BLOWING DUST AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE HIGH FOR TOMORROW (PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS).
-GREENING
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A POTENT
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
STREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHING WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER THE BIG BEND/TRANS PECOS REGION
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
INCREASED WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND
REGION. BREEZY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ALSO BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
STALLS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD. THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
INITIALLY REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
LOOKING TO ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 20S AND 30S OVER MOST
OF OUR AREA. THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
ONLY RANGE FROM 20-40% OVER LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS MEDIUM
CHANCES OF RAIN (UP TO AROUND 50%) OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE IMPROVED (DEWPOINTS
RISING IN THE 40S). RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL
DIFLUENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE FORCING
FOR ASCENT BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE TIME
FRAME MOST FAVORED FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA, WITH POPS RANGING FROM 20-40% OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES TO AS
HIGH AS 60% OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY ALSO RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ASCENT AND MOISTURE BECOME
PROPERLY ALIGNED AS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE GUIDANCE, PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA WILL BE FAVORED TO RECEIVE WELCOME RAINFALL, THOUGH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE UPPER SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH THE TIMING REMAINS
UNCLEAR. WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FROM A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLIER WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. BLOWING DUST AND
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME ISSUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 56 91 55 83 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD 53 88 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 58 96 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 58 96 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 54 76 48 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 50 82 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 49 84 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 56 92 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 56 92 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 51 91 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN
CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-
MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-
REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CHAVES PLAINS-
EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...95
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