178
FXUS64 KMAF 230845
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST COULD HINDER THIS PROCESS. FOR NOW MVFR CIGS WILL
REMAIN IN THE TAFS BUT WILL BE REMOVED IF CONDITIONS DO NOT PAN
OUT. WINDS 10-15 KTS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE OUT OF THE SE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY HAMPER THE FORMATION OF A
LOW CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, AN INCREASED DEW POINT
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOW
90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ARE GOING
TO IMPACT THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. ALSO, RHS ARE GOING DROP OUT WEST INCREASING RFTI'S (READ
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION). A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BULGE COULD FORM OVER PECOS COUNTY.
CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS,
NEAR THE DRYLINE BULGE, COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. PWATS ABOVE
AN INCH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN, HOWEVER STORM MOTION WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 25 KTS. THEREFORE, STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO SIT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LOW CLOUD DECK MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING CLEARING UP BY THE LATE
MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS PAC FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
IN THE LONG TERM, SUNDAY NIGHT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OFF THE WEST COAST, AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT AROUND 18Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL NUDGE AN UPPER RIDGE INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RESULTING IN THE WARMEST DAY THIS
FORECAST, AND PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY THE REST OF THIS YEAR. NO
RECORDS LOOK TO BE BROKEN ATTM, BUT IT'LL BE CLOSE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS W/MANY LOCATIONS HITTING 90F OR BETTER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY, THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE EAST TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY AROUND 18Z OR SO. LEESIDE TROUGHING ON THE FRONT RANGE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST, AND A
MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPES. IN
THE LATEST LONG-TERM MODEL RUNS, THE GFS IS FASTEST W/THE TROUGH,
FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF, W/THE CMC BRINGING UP THE REAR. OBVIOUSLY,
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF HIGH WINDS TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THIS.
HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO TRY TO NAIL THIS DOWN, OTHER
THAN TO SAY IT'LL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, NIGHT, OR A COMBINATION
THEREOF, AND WE'LL CONTINUE MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.
UNFORTUNATELY, A PAC FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WESTERLY FLOW,
KNOCKING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF OF TUESDAY'S HIGHS. THIS FRONT
WILL SHARPEN UP A DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z WEDNESDAY,
WARRANTING AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
POSSIBLY SIGNALING A FEW SEVERE CELLS, BUT THIS IS TOO FAR OUT AND
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS LONG-TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT W/EACH OTHER. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE EXTENDED.
THIS PAC FRONT IS COOLER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO, AND
TEMPERATURES NOW LOOK TO COOL TO NEAR-NORMAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER COOL, NW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FRIDAY AS THICKNESSES REBOUND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OVER THE
GUADALUPES/DELAWARES AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL CRITERIA
EXCEPT IN A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A DOWN DAY FOR FIRE WX DUE TO
DECREASED 20 FT WINDS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL TURN CRITICAL TUESDAY
W/THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. AS MENTIONED IN THE LONG-
TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE, TIMING OF HIGHER 20 FT WINDS ARE IN QUESTION
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH, BUT CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS LOOK TO MANIFEST OVER SE NM AND A GOOD PART OF
WEST TEXAS TO THE SOUTH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NEAR-CRITICAL RTFIS
AND ERCS ABOVE THE 70TH PERCENTILE. CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WE'LL ISSUE A RFD FOR
CONDITIONS TODAY, AND CONTINUE EMPHASIZING FIRE WX HAZARDS FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE HWO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 64 90 55 / 10 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 89 55 86 52 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN 88 65 91 63 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 91 60 89 57 / 10 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 79 56 76 56 / 0 10 0 0
HOBBS 87 54 83 51 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 83 49 82 47 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 62 88 57 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA 89 62 88 57 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 92 56 89 52 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...89
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