547
FXUS64 KMAF 081734
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1134 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
UPPER LOW OVER WY THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF.
THIS LOW WILL PASS ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
SETS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND
FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF KEEPING SW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CAUSE A
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND
70S. A WEAK POLAR FRONT WILL SAG DOWN INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SOME LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS SE NM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HANG AROUND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR SOME NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WITH 60S CENTRAL AND 70S SOUTH.
SHOWERS FROM LAST EVENING WINDING DOWN WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT ONES
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AS OF 09Z AND MOST OF THESE SHOULD END BY
SUNRISE. FOG WILL BE A BIG CONCERN IF CAN GET CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE RAIN... SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG AND
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. SO FAR HOB ONLY LOCATION TO HAVE FOG DOWN TO 1/4 MILE.
WITH DRIER AIR FRIDAY FOG LESS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS
RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A FEW 70S FURTHER SOUTH. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO THE NE PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE
THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
WILL ENSUE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 70S FOR MOST.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH, AREAS OUT WEST MAY STAY A
BIT COOLER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A PAC-FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY, THE TROUGH
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION WITH VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPE
AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY BY AROUND 20 DEGREES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, BUT THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER OUT
THERE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME MID-WEEK, AND
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE DAY WITH
LOWS OVERNIGHT FALLING BELOW FREEZING. UNFORTUNATELY, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT WE WILL BE KEEPING
A CLOSE EYE ON THE PROGRESSION SHOULD ANYTHING CHANGE.
-ZUBER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MAF, INK,
PEQ, AND FST WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MAF BEGINNING AROUND
06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 73 52 67 53 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD 68 42 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 72 60 71 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 55 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 45 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 67 41 59 42 / 0 0 10 10
MARFA 69 43 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 72 51 67 52 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA 71 51 67 52 / 0 0 10 10
WINK 71 47 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...80
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