694  
FXUS64 KMAF 182337  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
637 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2024  
 
VIS AND IR SAT SHOW SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN  
PERMIAN BASIN, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A DRYLINE IS  
LOCATED ALONG FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SW TX. THIS SURFACE FEATURE  
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION DEVELOPING TODAY. ALOFT, A  
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA, PROVIDING  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR STORMS FORMING FROM HEATING OF  
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE DAVIS  
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN  
BASIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, 90S FOR MOST  
PLACES, 80S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ALONG THE  
RIO GRANDE IN THE BIG BEND AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD MOVE  
NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAINTAINING DEW  
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S, 50S WESTERNMOST REGIONS, AND LOWS  
FALLING INTO THE 60S, 70S AND ABOVE MOST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN,  
UPPER TRANS PECOS, STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.  
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE EVEN WARMER TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OVER THE  
SOUTHERN CONUS AMPLIFIES, WITH MID TO UPPER 90S MOST PLACES, 80S  
IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE  
IN THE BIG BEND AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY  
SURFACE WINDS ADVECTING IN WARM, HUMID AIR, LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT  
WILL AGAIN BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR MOST  
PLACES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2024  
 
THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST WILL DRIVE THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST.  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS UNDER  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AT HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS TO NEAR 108 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE AND LOWS GENERALLY IN  
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 70S. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/LOW  
(DEPENDING ON WHAT CLUSTER AND/OR MODEL YOU BELIEVE) EJECTS OUT  
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY, LEE CYCLOGENESIS  
BEGINS TO CRANK UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE A  
DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE  
BETTER UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICAL FORCING, SHEAR, AND THERMODYNAMICS  
WILL EXIST FROM THE PANHANDLES SOUTH TO THE SOUTH PLAINS, THERE IS  
A SMALL AMOUNT (< 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE) OF OVERLAP IN THE  
THERMO/KINEMATIC PHASE SPACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA  
TO BE CONCERNED. IN PLAIN ENGLISH, THIS MEANS THAT WHILE THERE'S A  
SMALL (< 25 PERCENT) COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FROM  
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (PROBABLY OVERDONE SOMEWHAT GIVEN  
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE), THERE'S A FAIRLY  
HIGH (< 70 PERCENT) CONDITIONAL THREAT OF WIND GUSTS APPROACHING  
SEVERE LIMITS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES BECOME ESTABLISHED.  
THERE IS ALSO THE ATTENDANT LIGHTNING THREAT TO CONSIDER. THOSE  
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE ADVISED TO  
KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND TRENDS AS THIS SITUATION  
UNFOLDS. STAY TUNED.  
 
THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED LATER SUNDAY MORNING BY A (LIKELY  
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) COLD FRONT. THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL SERVE  
TWO PURPOSES. FIRST WILL BE KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND  
FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. THE SECOND WILL BE AN INCREASE  
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS AN UPSLOPE  
FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED. CLOUDS, MOISTURE, AND A  
SMATTERING OF POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN  
EVEN FURTHER, BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF  
SEPTEMBER. NOT A BAD START FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FALL (FOR  
THOSE KEEPING SCORE AT HOME, THE REAL START OF AUTUMN WILL OCCUR  
ON SUNDAY, 22 SEPTEMBER 2024 AT 12:43 UTC). -BC  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND  
10-15KT, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY  
AT FST THROUGH TONIGHT, AND MAF THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH  
MENTION FOR FST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED  
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE TO NO TANGIBLE IMPACT  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 73 96 71 95 / 0 0 0 0  
CARLSBAD 68 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10  
DRYDEN 73 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT STOCKTON 71 98 70 95 / 10 0 0 0  
GUADALUPE PASS 67 90 69 88 / 0 10 0 10  
HOBBS 68 96 68 93 / 0 0 0 0  
MARFA 64 93 63 92 / 10 10 0 0  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 72 96 71 93 / 0 0 0 0  
ODESSA 74 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 0  
WINK 74 99 72 97 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
NM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...94  
LONG TERM....70  
AVIATION...84  
 
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