840
FXUS64 KMAF 292336
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE (DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS, PARTICULARLY IN THE PERMIAN BASIN).
- CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND (30-60% CHANCES). SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED.
- WARMING TREND DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON IS AHEAD FOR THE REGION, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE 90S WITH PEAK HEATING, HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE,
EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, TRAVERSES THE REGION. THE MAIN
TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST, BUT THIS FEATURE AND OTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL HELP INITIATION CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WEAKENING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS SETTLED NEAR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. AN ADDITIONAL
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TO NEAR LUBBOCK INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
THESE FEATURES MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS AND ENHANCED CORRIDORS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT HIGH-
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS MORE SCATTERED AND WEAKER
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY POSE A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK, BUT REMAIN MORE MULTI-CELLULAR. A
SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR IN
THE VICINITY OF THE REEVES/PECOS COUNTY LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE. A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AROUND THIS
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY IS
STILL SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST, INCREASING UNCERTAINTY SOMEWHAT. THAT
SAID, NEAREST THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ENHANCED CORRIDOR
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A MEDIUM TO HIGH 40-70%) CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, POSING A VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADO RISK FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LLANO ESTACADO, ESPECIALLY NEAREST THE BOUNDARY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MERGE AND TRANSITION INTO A MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THAT SAID, A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY WELL-ESTABLISHED SUPERCELLS.
THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE
EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. QUIETER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS A COOLER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS
SPILLS IN. THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE THAT A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
COLD FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE MUCH OF A
SEVERE RISK THOUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD
COVER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
TOMORROW MORNING.
FRIDAY SEES COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE A WELCOMED SIGHT FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY
THIS TYPE OF WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY. A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT. THAT SAID, THIS THREAT REMAINS A MEDIUM
(30-60%) CHANCE FOR THIS REGION. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THOUGH, BUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. A
COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE
MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH 60S FOR MOST TO START THE WEEKEND DURING
SATURDAY MORNING.
-CHEHAK
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TO
OUR WEST BEGINS TO MIGRATE THIS DIRECTION. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST AT THE SURFACE AS POST-FRONTAL
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT, WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS SHOOT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S SATURDAY, THEN INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S
SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. BECAUSE OF CONTINUED UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S, RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
PERSIST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND (30-60% CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN/NEAR THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS). GIVEN WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR (< 20 KTS), ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MONDAY, ANOTHER INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO
THE EAST. THOUGH IT APPEARS OUR AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE BEST
FORCING, PULSES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AT LEAST
USHER IN SOME BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION (CURRENTLY 30-60%, WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/STOCKTON PLATEAU). BY TUESDAY, THE DRYLINE LOOKS
TO SHARPEN UP A BIT OVER OUR AREA. THOUGH ITS POSITIONING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR OUT, RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE
(AND THUS BETTER RAIN CHANCES - 10-30% RIGHT NOW) WILL BE FOR THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN IN PARTICULAR. SUCH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, THOUGH IT DOES
LOOK LIKE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES NORTH, FAVORING BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION. HIGHS REMAIN IN
THE 90S FOR MOST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE REST OF THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO LEAVE THE REGION AROUND 03Z/04Z TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
BEGINNING AROUND 08Z FRIDAY MORNING AND SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
CNM AND MAF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND BREVITY OF THESE CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 78 64 89 / 60 20 10 10
CARLSBAD 64 79 64 88 / 30 20 30 30
DRYDEN 71 85 69 89 / 40 50 30 40
FORT STOCKTON 68 81 67 88 / 30 40 20 40
GUADALUPE PASS 61 74 62 81 / 20 30 30 30
HOBBS 60 76 61 86 / 40 10 20 10
MARFA 63 79 61 81 / 50 60 40 60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 79 66 88 / 40 20 10 10
ODESSA 64 78 66 87 / 40 20 10 20
WINK 66 81 67 90 / 30 20 20 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55
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