024
FXUS64 KMAF 242338
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION, WITH HIGHS LARGELY BETWEEN 100 TO 110 DEGREES. BE SURE
TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE
IF OUTDOORS!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES (10-30%) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MID TO UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MID-WEEK
SUPPRESSING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES, EVEN WHILE A
WEAK, QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND LEE
TROUGHING FROM THE SE NM PLAINS INTO W TX PROVIDE ADDITIONAL NEAR
SURFACE LIFT FOR A CHANCE OF INITIATION OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.
ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FROM LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
AND PROXIMITY OF RIDGING WILL ALLOW 95F-100F HIGHS, 100F-105F HIGHS
IN THE LOW LANDS, AND 105F-110F HIGHS ALONG THE PECOS RIVER INTO
UPPER TRANS PECOS TO OCCUR TODAY. HEAT INDICES REMAIN ABOVE
HAZARDOUS HEAT CRITERIA SOUTHWEST OF THE PECOS RIVER AND WEST OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND TERRELL COUNTY, SO A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR REGIONS WEST OF THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AND TERRELL
COUNTY AND SOUTH OF NORTHERN LEA COUNTY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IS AGAIN
IN THE FORECAST, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY.
VIS/IR AND WV IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOW WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST
STEERING FLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CORE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN MX PLATEAU INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIRTING THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGING, DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND ENHANCED
NORTHWEST WINDS, AS WELL AS LIFT FOR ASCENT BENEATH. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND EAST-CENTRAL NM IN A MRGL RISK
TODAY, WITH MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER, WHILE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND GREATER STORM COVERAGE ARE
FORECAST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, 10%-15% 1 HR POPS AND 20%-30% 3
HR POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE SE NM PLAINS INTO UPPER
TRANS PECOS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO EXTEND
DOWN INTO THESE REGIONS AS WELL. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE
ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 20F/LOW RH IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER, DRY AIR POTENTIALLY MIXING OUT
THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS FROM DRY AIR ALSO MEAN THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR LITTLE TO NO STORMS TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS THEREFORE CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT (AT MOST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH) AND NO MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ANY
MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 70F-75F RANGE, 65-70F RANGE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND 75F-80F FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND AS
THESE 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER SOUTHERLY WINDS IN A LLJ TO THE EAST
OF LEE TROUGHING LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING.
HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY THE SAME AS TODAY, SO WE
ARE CONSIDERING ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING TOMORROW. RISK OF STRONG STORMS HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS TODAY. CORE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORMLY WEAK
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ABOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF LEE
TROUGHING OVER SE NM PLAINS INTO CULBERSON COUNTY. STILL,
CONTINUING WEAK FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND FOCUSING OF MOISTURE
NEAR THE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT AND LEE TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO
20%-30% POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, SO LIGHTNING AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT CONSIDERING
DCAPE WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO
FREEZING LEVEL. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, A SHARPENING MOISTURE GRADIENT
WEST-EAST ALONG LEE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER WINDS TO THE EAST OF
LEE TROUGHING: CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITHIN A LLJ. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LLJ AGAIN
LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING. HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WILL NEED TO
BE TAKEN EACH DAY CONTINUING FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND, BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BELOW THE TRIPLE
DIGITS RETURN FOR MOST REGIONS NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MORE DETAILS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. TEMPERATURES STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA SEEING HIGHS BETWEEN 100-105F. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAIN THE
COOL SPOTS AS HIGHS SIT JUST UNDER 100F. HEAT PRODUCTS OF SOME KIND
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR THESE DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD ON
MAINLY ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF BIG BEND, BUT WILL
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. SOME AREAS MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LOW. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE KEPT THE WARMTH OVERHEAD BEGINS TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND AN UPPER LOW CHURNS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT RAIN CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW (10-40%).
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD MOVE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY
JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS TS IS MOVING EAST OF CNM AND IS GETTING CLOSER
TO HOB. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT HOB FOR TS BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH AS IT GOES EAST AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL
REACH THE TERMINAL FOR NOT. IF AN AMENDMENT IS NEEDED IT WILL
OCCUR WITHIN THE HOUR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 73 102 75 104 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 73 105 74 104 / 20 0 20 10
DRYDEN 73 102 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 104 74 104 / 10 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 72 97 72 95 / 20 0 20 10
HOBBS 69 103 71 103 / 30 10 20 10
MARFA 64 98 66 97 / 0 10 0 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 101 74 102 / 20 0 20 0
ODESSA 73 101 74 102 / 20 0 20 10
WINK 73 106 75 105 / 20 0 20 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-PECOS-PRESIDIO
VALLEY-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-SOUTHERN
LEA.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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