263  
FXUS64 KMAF 101711  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
1211 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
AT ISSUANCE, SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA, THOUGH IMPACTS AT HOB/CNM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.  
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED  
THIS AFTERNOON, THUS HAVE INCLUDED VCTS MENTION AT ALL BUT FST,  
GIVEN CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. OUTSIDE OF  
STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, THOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN  
HEAVY RAIN AND/OR BLOWING DUST MAY BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS IMPACT  
AREA TERMINALS. STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,  
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD. E/SE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT  
VARIABLE GIVEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO  
AROUND 20-22KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGER AND MORE ERRATIC  
IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE  
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO  
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE  
IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS SET TO GRADUALLY PASS OVER OUR AREA  
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL ACTIVITY FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION  
HAS DISSIPATED WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE  
PECOS RIVER. SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL  
HELP GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY NORTH OF I-10. ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW IN ADDITION  
TO NEW OUTFLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO SPAWN NEW STORMS AS WELL. OVERALL,  
STORM LIFE CYCLES WILL STAY SHORT-LIVED WITH GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO  
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS  
ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND HIT-OR-MISS DOWNPOURS. WITH THE RIDGE  
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM STORMS WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN THE  
MID 90S FOR MOST WITH 80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 100S ALONG THE  
RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO STAY CLOSE TO AVERAGE,  
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST.  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR TOMORROW  
SUGGESTS THURSDAY'S WEATHER WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH  
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES AREAWIDE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE FOCUSED MORE OVERHEAD FOR  
THURSDAY, SETTING UP THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA  
IN QUITE SOME TIME. ONCE AGAIN, STORMS WILL STAY NON-SEVERE WITH THE  
MAIN CONCERNS BEING GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL. HOPEFULLY MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE PECOS CAN CASH IN ON  
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL BEFORE RAIN CHANCES ARE SHUNTED TO THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
-MUNYAN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN  
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS IT HELPS LEAD THE MIGRATION OF MULTIPLE  
SHORTWAVES AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE  
CENTER. THE TANDEM OF ELEVATED MOISTURE FROM SOUTHEAST FLOW, ASCENT  
FROM SHORTWAVE PRESENCE, AND MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX  
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM CONCERNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
FRIDAY. THE TREND WILL BE DEGRADING CONVECTIVE CONCERNS OVER THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN INFLUX OF DRY  
AIR IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVES MENTIONED ABOVE, EVENTUALLY FUNNELING  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. THE END RESULT IS A  
RETURN TO SEASONAL CONVECTIVE RISKS FOR THE TYPICAL AREAS OVER THE  
DAVIS MTNS AND ADJACENT MARFA PLATEAU WITH LITTLE TO NO RISKS  
ANYWHERE ELSE OUTSIDE THE STRAY SHOWER/STORM.  
 
HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY, BUT WILL RETURN  
TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH WIDESPREAD 90S AND TRIPLE-DIGITS ACROSS THE  
LOWER RGV. A TAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN  
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATE A FRONT POSSIBLY THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS BEFORE IT CUTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.  
STILL A WAYS OUT, BUT WOULD BE NICE TO SEE A FRONT IN THESE PARTS  
FOR BOTH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 95 73 94 73 / 50 40 40 10  
CARLSBAD 94 70 91 70 / 50 50 60 30  
DRYDEN 98 76 97 76 / 10 10 50 20  
FORT STOCKTON 96 72 94 72 / 30 20 50 20  
GUADALUPE PASS 87 67 84 67 / 40 40 50 40  
HOBBS 90 68 89 68 / 50 60 60 30  
MARFA 90 62 87 62 / 30 20 50 30  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 94 73 92 72 / 40 40 50 20  
ODESSA 94 73 92 73 / 40 40 50 20  
WINK 96 73 94 72 / 40 40 50 30  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
NM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...16  
LONG TERM....87  
AVIATION...84  
 
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