926
FXUS64 KMAF 130639
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
139 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, BUT A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES
ALSO INCREASE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT, TEMPERATURES
FINALLY COOL A FEW DEGREES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TODAY
AND MONDAY (MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS), TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS
BECOME CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS AND NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN.
SURFACE TROUGHING AND UPSLOPE FLOW YIELDS LOW (10-20%) SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO BOTH DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD A STORM BECOME STRONG. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH (AND LLJ TONIGHT) CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER, BECAUSE WE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S
WILL BE COMMONPLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH 100S CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT WESTWARD AGAIN, BUT IS DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
TICK DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO THURSDAY, AND BY FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S. SURFACE TROUGHING AND PULSES ROUNDING THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES
FOR THESE AREAS RANGE FROM 30-60% IN GENERAL. GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FRONT PUSHING DOWN TOWARDS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT WOULD HELP FURTHER
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, AND WOULD ENCOURAGE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, EXACT
DETAILS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, RAIN CHANCES, AND THE
EXTENT OF COOLING REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY, THE NBM IS JUSTIFIABLY A BIT CONSERVATIVE, SHOWING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD AT LEAST BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, OPTED TO EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TERMINAL IMPACTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 101 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 102 74 100 72 / 20 10 10 30
DRYDEN 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 98 73 98 73 / 0 0 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 93 69 90 69 / 20 10 10 20
HOBBS 99 71 97 71 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA 93 64 91 63 / 20 0 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 98 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 101 75 100 75 / 0 0 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55
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