224
FXUS64 KMAF 210331
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
931 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 928 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
TONIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
A FRONT LOADED SHORT TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH WINDS PICKING UP
TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING FRONT IS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. WINDY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
TEENS(AND EVEN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW SPOTS) MAKE FOR A
DANGEROUSLY COLD NIGHT. FOR THAT, HAVE CONTINUED THE INHERITED
EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL KEEP THEM AS
IS TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA,
GAP WINDS BECOME STRONG AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
DECREASING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE LEFT THE INHERITED HIGH
WIND WARNING AS IS. THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND WITH SOME BETTER
ASCENT AND JUST ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, PORTIONS OF PECOS
AND TERRELL COUNTIES MAY SEE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF TERRELL COUNTY MAY SEE
A BRIEF TRANSITION TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN, BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IN ANY AREA WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE IMPACTS.
WITH THE NEW PUSH OF COLDER AIR, HIGHS ON TUESDAY REACH INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SPOTS, MAINLY OVER SE NM AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ONLY MAKE IT TO FREEZING. THE "WARMEST"
AREAS, AS USUAL, WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE HIGHS REACH INTO
THE 40S. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST HEADING LATE
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT SEES LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR MANY
AND WHILE THIS IS STILL QUITE COLD, LIGHTER WINDS KEEP AWAY THE NEED
FOR ANY COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
QUASI-ZONAL, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGINS TO RETURN TO OUR FORECAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY, SUNNY SKIES,
INCREASING HEIGHTS, AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB 20 TO 25
DEGREES OVER TUESDAY INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THIS IS
A WELCOMED IMPROVEMENT, THIS REMAINS BELOW NORMAL FOR JANUARY.
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLD FRONT, PERSISTENT
DRY AIR, AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS A RESULT. MOST FALL
WELL INTO THE 20S WITH EVEN THE TEENS HANGING ON FOR A FEW OF THE
COLDER LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY AS
WELL WITH MOST HOLDING IN THE 40S WITH ANY 50S CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS FRIGID IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S FOR THE MAJORITY ONCE AGAIN.
THE PATTERN IMPROVES A LITTLE HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF OF BAJA WILL CAUSE LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A
RESULT OF LEE TROUGHING AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES CONTRIBUTE TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY SEES MORE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR THE
REGION WITH OVERNIGHT SEEING CHILLY BUT LESS FRIGID TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FINALLY MAKE A RETURN AS 60S AND EVEN 70S
MAKE AN APPEARANCE. HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WE CAN EXPECT MOST
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH 40S FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY WILL HOPEFULLY BE ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR THE REGION, BUT THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES UNCERTAIN. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA SHOULD BEGIN TO PROGRESS EAST DURING THIS
TIME WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH MAY ACT TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS RESULTING IN COLDER WEATHER
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF RIGHT NOW, GUIDANCE IS KEEPING
MUCH OF THE COLD AIR AT BAY AS EVERYONE CONTINUES THE RUN OF NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE THIS REMAINS POSSIBLE, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS REMAIN EVENLY SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH OF
EACH OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEMS. A STRONGER NORTHERN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WOULD LIKELY SEE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, BUT IF THE UPPER-LOW IS CLOSER AND STRONGER, SOUTHERLY
WINDS COULD SLOW OR PREVENT THE COLD FRONT FROM REACHING THE AREA.
THESE FEATURES ARE GOING TO BE MONITORED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK
AND WE SHOULD HOPEFULLY GET A BETTER IDEA IN THE COMING FORECASTS.
OTHER THAN THESE TEMPERATURES, THE ENTIRE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS A
BONE.
-CHEHAK
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE PRESENT. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS AT
PRESENT, RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. POST-FRONTAL WINDS
WILL RELAX AND BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 15 36 21 55 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 13 38 17 55 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 23 38 20 58 / 20 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 17 36 21 58 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 15 30 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 11 33 19 53 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 11 36 14 55 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 16 34 21 54 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 16 34 21 55 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 17 36 20 56 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-MARFA PLATEAU-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CRANE-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER
BREWSTER COUNTY-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO
VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-
WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN
LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44
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