263
FXUS64 KMAF 101711
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1211 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2022
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2022
AT ISSUANCE, SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, THOUGH IMPACTS AT HOB/CNM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, THUS HAVE INCLUDED VCTS MENTION AT ALL BUT FST,
GIVEN CONFIDENCE DECREASES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, THOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVY RAIN AND/OR BLOWING DUST MAY BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS IMPACT
AREA TERMINALS. STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD. E/SE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE GIVEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO
AROUND 20-22KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGER AND MORE ERRATIC
IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS SET TO GRADUALLY PASS OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL ACTIVITY FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE
PECOS RIVER. SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY NORTH OF I-10. ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW IN ADDITION
TO NEW OUTFLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO SPAWN NEW STORMS AS WELL. OVERALL,
STORM LIFE CYCLES WILL STAY SHORT-LIVED WITH GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS
ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND HIT-OR-MISS DOWNPOURS. WITH THE RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM STORMS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN THE
MID 90S FOR MOST WITH 80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 100S ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO STAY CLOSE TO AVERAGE,
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR TOMORROW
SUGGESTS THURSDAY'S WEATHER WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AREAWIDE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE FOCUSED MORE OVERHEAD FOR
THURSDAY, SETTING UP THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
IN QUITE SOME TIME. ONCE AGAIN, STORMS WILL STAY NON-SEVERE WITH THE
MAIN CONCERNS BEING GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOPEFULLY MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE PECOS CAN CASH IN ON
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL BEFORE RAIN CHANCES ARE SHUNTED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
-MUNYAN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS IT HELPS LEAD THE MIGRATION OF MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
CENTER. THE TANDEM OF ELEVATED MOISTURE FROM SOUTHEAST FLOW, ASCENT
FROM SHORTWAVE PRESENCE, AND MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM CONCERNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE TREND WILL BE DEGRADING CONVECTIVE CONCERNS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN INFLUX OF DRY
AIR IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVES MENTIONED ABOVE, EVENTUALLY FUNNELING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. THE END RESULT IS A
RETURN TO SEASONAL CONVECTIVE RISKS FOR THE TYPICAL AREAS OVER THE
DAVIS MTNS AND ADJACENT MARFA PLATEAU WITH LITTLE TO NO RISKS
ANYWHERE ELSE OUTSIDE THE STRAY SHOWER/STORM.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY, BUT WILL RETURN
TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH WIDESPREAD 90S AND TRIPLE-DIGITS ACROSS THE
LOWER RGV. A TAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATE A FRONT POSSIBLY THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS BEFORE IT CUTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
STILL A WAYS OUT, BUT WOULD BE NICE TO SEE A FRONT IN THESE PARTS
FOR BOTH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 73 94 73 / 50 40 40 10
CARLSBAD 94 70 91 70 / 50 50 60 30
DRYDEN 98 76 97 76 / 10 10 50 20
FORT STOCKTON 96 72 94 72 / 30 20 50 20
GUADALUPE PASS 87 67 84 67 / 40 40 50 40
HOBBS 90 68 89 68 / 50 60 60 30
MARFA 90 62 87 62 / 30 20 50 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 94 73 92 72 / 40 40 50 20
ODESSA 94 73 92 73 / 40 40 50 20
WINK 96 73 94 72 / 40 40 50 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...84
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