934
FXUS64 KMAF 242319
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
619 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2020
DISCUSSION
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT RANGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2020/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COAST UP
THRU THE MS VALLEY, LEAVING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
UNDER MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, MODELS ARE IN
LINE IN STRENGTHENING THE TROUGH, AND TAKING IT TO THE ARKLATEX BY
06Z SUN. DESPITE THIS, THICKNESSES ARE SET TO INCREASE THRU SUNDAY
AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST, AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
NEAR 30C MOST LOCATIONS. THE NAM12 EVEN SUGGESTS KMAF AND A FEW
OTHER PLACES IN THE PERMIAN BASIN/PECOS RVR VALLEY COULD BREAK THE
CENTURY MARK ONE LAST TIME THIS FALL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS AN OUTLIER
AND WE PROBABLY WON'T BE SO LUCKY. STILL, HIGHS 2-3 STD DEVS ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED.
REGRETTABLY, THIS COMES TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THIS WON'T BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THE ONE A FEW WEEKS AGO, BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK HIGHS
MONDAY AFTERNOON DOWN WELL-BELOW NORMAL, MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
MID-OCTOBER THAN LATE SEPTEMBER. A FEW HOURS OF HIGH GAP WINDS AT
KGDP LOOK LIKELY, AND WE'LL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. DESPITE ITS
STRENGTH, THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, W/RETURN FLOW RESUMING MON
NIGHT AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE-NORMAL TUE AFTERNOON. WED LOOKS
SIMILAR TO TUE, BUT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WED NIGHT SHOULD TAKE
TEMPS THU BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.
INCREDIBLY THOUGH ALL THIS, RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM-TO-NONE, AND SLIM
IS TRYING TO LEAVE THE BUILDING. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE MARFA PLATEAU AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH THRU THE AREA, AND TOWERS CAN BE SEEN GOING
UP ALREADY ON VIS SATELLITE. OTHERWISE, THE TWO UPCOMING COLD
FRONTS LOOKS DRY, W/NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF GENERATE A LITTLE CONVECTION ON THE FIRST FRONT SUN
NIGHT, KEEPING THE BULK OF CONVECTION EAST IN THE BETTER MOISTURE.
BUT THE GFS IS DRY, AND WE'LL KEEP THE GRIDS DRY FOR NOW UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND/OR INCREASE CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 60 94 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 60 96 60 99 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 63 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 59 94 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 62 88 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 59 92 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 55 89 57 93 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 61 94 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 61 94 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 61 96 62 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
99/99/99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page