070
FXUS64 KMAF 051709
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1109 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, LEAVING WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, AND WILL EASE INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, AND
DISSIPATE INVOF THE PECOS THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO AMOUNT TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT, YIELDING HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, ~ 2-4F ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT, SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT/VARIABLE, PROMOTING EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. NBM HAS BEEN A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM ON LOWS AS OF LATE, AND WE'LL SHAVE A DEGREE
OR SO OFF THOSE NUMBERS. NEVERTHELESS, LOWS SHOULD STILL COME IN
3-5F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
WEDNESDAY, RETURN FLOW RESUMES AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THICKNESSES INCREASE SLIGHTLY, ADDING A DEGREE OR SO ON
AVERAGE TO TODAY'S HIGHS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, GRIDS STAY DRY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO WEST TEXAS AND STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING IN COLORADO. WITH WARM
WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO THE 70S BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A LARGE AND AND VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY
NIGHT, REACHING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, RESULTING IN HIGH WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WHILE ALSO HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROUGH ARRIVES
SATURDAY, SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE REGION,
AND WE'LL SEE A DROP OF NEARLY 20 DEGREES COMPARED TO THE DAY
BEFORE. LIKE NIGHT AND DAY, WE'LL GO FROM MID 70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON
TO LOW TO MID 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S ON SUNDAY MORNING, NOT REBOUNDING
MUCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AS LEE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS. BEYOND SUNDAY MODELS DIFFER ON
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY A RESURGENCE OF COLDER
AIR BY MID WEEK, HOLDING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL MOVING INTO MID DECEMBER. AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LOOK TO BE NIL.
-ZUBER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2023
VFR REMAINS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 65 36 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 61 33 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 71 43 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 66 38 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 61 39 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 63 33 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 66 33 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 37 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 65 37 64 47 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 66 35 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...93
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