091  
FXUS64 KMAF 181936  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
236 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
VERY STRONG HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL COMBINE WITH  
WEAKNESS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PRODUCE  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS SOUTH TO THE  
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT  
PLAINS). THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK SO SIGNIFICANT  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND STORMS WILL NOT BE ABLE  
TO PUSH EASTWARD MUCH FROM NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST  
AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
NATION. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE  
REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
AREAWIDE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. PREFERRED TO  
MOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH QUICKER THAN NBM  
GUIDANCE BASED ON THE PROJECTED STRENGTH OF THE FRONT SO  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD DECREASE QUICKER BY NEXT WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 76 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 0  
CARLSBAD 75 103 74 103 / 10 20 20 10  
DRYDEN 75 100 74 99 / 0 0 10 0  
FORT STOCKTON 75 100 74 100 / 10 10 10 0  
GUADALUPE PASS 73 95 73 95 / 20 20 20 30  
HOBBS 73 101 72 99 / 10 10 20 0  
MARFA 63 92 61 92 / 20 20 20 20  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 101 75 100 / 0 0 10 0  
ODESSA 75 101 74 100 / 0 0 10 0  
WINK 76 104 75 103 / 10 10 20 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
27/12  
 
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