489
FXUS64 KMAF 041752
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1252 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER AND FLASH FLOODING IN
LOW-LYING, SLOPED, AND POOR DRAINAGE REGIONS.
- WARMER AND DRIER FOLLOWING RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF SATURDAY, BUT
REMAINING HUMID ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE UNSETTLING EARLY JUNE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK. VIS/IR SATELLITE EARLIER THIS MORNING DEPICTED A BATCH OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS AND A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORM MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER LEA COUNTY INTO THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN,
WHILE MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE RIO GRANDE BASIN. 35% TO 50% SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DEVELOP
OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY INTO THE EVENING, WITH HIGH-RES
CAMS AND ENSEMBLE REFLECTIVITY DEPICTING CLUSTERS OR LINES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE RIO GRANDE BASIN.
PWATS AT LEAST 1.00", CAPE 1500-2500 J/KG, DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG,
AND DECENT 6-7 C/KM MID TO UPPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7-8 C/KM LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY. HOWEVER,
DUE TO WEAK (<25 KNOT) EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR LIMITING ORGANIZATION
AND LONGEVITY OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND WEAK (<15 KNOT)
WEST/SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS OF
THE TROPOSPHERE INTERACTING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL 0.50" TO
0.75" AND UP TO AN INCH IN HEAVIER AND/OR TRAINING STORMS WILL
AGAIN POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR ARROYOS,
FOOTHILLS, AND POOR DRAINAGE REGIONS. HIGHS AGAIN ONLY RISE INTO
THE 80S F, 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER LIMITS DIURNAL HEATING. LOWS LIKEWISE DROP INTO THE
60S F, 50S F MARFA PLATEAU AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY TONIGHT AS
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LIMITS OVERNIGHT COOLING.
TOMORROW, THE DISTURBANCE OVER BAJA CA THAT IS MAINTAINING THE
STREAM OF MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND CONSOLIDATE
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MX AND DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL MAIN MEDIUM 45% TO 55% SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER THE
MARFA PLATEAU INTO LEA COUNTY AND PERMIAN BASIN, WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. HIGH-RES CAMS AND ENSEMBLE REFLECTIVITY DEPICT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING, EXTENT, AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS HOWEVER, AND STORMS AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY OR
TODAY ARE NOT PRESENTLY INDICATED. THIS MAY MEAN LOWER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH RATHER THAN 0.50" TO
0.75" FOR MOST REGIONS WHERE RAIN DOES FALL. EVEN SO, BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL ON SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT WETTING RAINS WILL STILL
POSE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN USUAL LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
REGIONS. HIGHS STAY SIMILAR TO TODAY IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COOLER,
WHILE LOWS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. FRIDAY NIGHT, 45% TO 60%
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN (ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL PONDING
OF WATER OVER LOW-LYING ROADS THAT MAY BE HARD TO SEE AT NIGHT.
REMEMBER DAY OR NIGHT, IF YOU SEE WATER ON THE ROADS AND THINK
IT'S TOO DEEP TO PASS, YOU ARE PROBABLY RIGHT. TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT HUMID WITH
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, WHILE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN HUMID FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO
TERRELL COUNTY BUT FEATURE MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. SATURDAY, THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
GREATEST LIFT AND MOISTURE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BACK IN. DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM BY A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY,
BUT HIGHS LARGELY STILL REMAIN IN THE 80S F, 70S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 35% TO 55% SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU
SURROUNDED BY LOW TO MEDIUM 25% TO 35% SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FROM
TERRELL COUNTY INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LEA COUNTY. PWATS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 1.5 TO 2.0 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 1.00" TO 1.25" RANGE. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. WHICH MAY
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PONDING OF WATER ON SATURATED SOILS. HOWEVER,
NO MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. DRIER CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S F WORKS ITS WAY IN TO THE
WEST, BEHIND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
SE NM PLAINS, EVEN AS HUMID AIR CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F PERSISTS TO THE EAST.
LOWS STAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S F FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING, WHILE LOWS DROP
INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S F ELSEWHERE.
RAIN CHANCES FINALLY DECREASE BACK TO NEAR ZERO BEGINNING SUNDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CONCURRENTLY, HIGHS RETURN TO THE 90S F, UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
F ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM EDDY COUNTY PLAINS INTO UPPER
TRANS PECOS AND PRESIDIO VALLEY (WITH HIGHS UP TO 105F-110F IN THE
BIG BEND), WHILE LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S F.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE MID 50S F WILL KEEP APPARENT
TEMPERATURES FEELING CLOSE TO IF NOT A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN
AIR TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE. FARTHER TO THE WEST, A DIFFUSE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE, EXCEPT FOR THE
GUADALUPES INTO DAVIS MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN-VALLEY BREEZES. A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN SEND MID TO UPPER DISTURBANCES STREAMING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, YIELDING
INCREASED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER, AT THIS RANGE, EXACT DETAILS REGARDING TIMING, MAGNITUDE,
AND EXTENT OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REMAIN UNCLEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OUTSIDE OF FST, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF
IMPACT AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. ASIDE FROM ANY CONVECTION, WINDS AROUND 10KTS FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SHOULD PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 68 84 65 86 / 30 30 70 60
CARLSBAD 65 87 63 89 / 10 20 20 20
DRYDEN 68 84 67 89 / 40 50 50 20
FORT STOCKTON 66 85 63 88 / 10 50 40 30
GUADALUPE PASS 63 78 62 81 / 20 30 30 10
HOBBS 63 84 61 84 / 20 20 40 40
MARFA 54 78 53 83 / 50 40 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 67 82 64 85 / 20 30 60 40
ODESSA 66 83 64 85 / 20 20 60 40
WINK 66 86 64 88 / 20 30 50 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93
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