582  
FGUS71 KBUF 010941  
ESFBUF  
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-  
121-080945-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
541 AM EDT THU APR 1 2021  
   
..BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH APRIL 15TH
 
 
THIS IS THE SEVENTH FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2021 SEASON.  
FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO EARLY SPRING TO  
SUMMARIZE BASIN CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.  
THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL  
CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT, CREEK AND  
RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE ON THEM, ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED  
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  
   
..CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY
 
 
 
WARM WEATHER HAS MELTED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS  
THE REGION, LEAVING A CLEAN SLATE FOR BASINS SOUTH OF LAKE  
ONTARIO. LIGHT SNOW LAST NIGHT RE-ESTABLISHED AN INCH IN SOME  
SPOTS, BUT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES (SWE) ARE NEGLIGIBLE.  
 
LOW PRESSURE PRODUCED A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LAST NIGHT  
IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN. ALSO, DEEPER SNOW PACK SURVIVED THE  
WARM-UP BUT THIS IS CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND COVERS LESS  
THAN 20 PERCENT OF THE AREA. THE BLACK RIVER BASIN AVERAGE SWE IS  
LESS THAN A HALF INCH WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE.  
 
THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF THE CONDITIONS BY BASIN AS OF THURSDAY  
MORNING, APRIL 1ST:  
   
..BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN
 
   
SNOW COVER.......
 
NONE.   
WATER EQUIVALENT.
 
NONE.   
CREEK FLOWS......
 
BELOW NORMAL.   
CREEK ICE........
 
NONE.    
GROUND FROST.....
 
NONE.   
GROUND STATE.....
 
SATURATED.  
   
..GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA
 
   
SNOW COVER.......
 
LESS THAN AN INCH.   
WATER EQUIVALENT.
 
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.   
CREEK FLOWS......
 
BELOW NORMAL.   
CREEK ICE........
 
NONE.    
GROUND FROST.....
 
NONE.   
GROUND STATE.....
 
SATURATED.  
   
..ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN
 
   
SNOW COVER.......
 
LESS THAN AN INCH.   
WATER EQUIVALENT.
 
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.   
CREEK FLOWS......
 
BELOW NORMAL.   
CREEK ICE........
 
NONE.    
GROUND FROST.....
 
NONE.   
GROUND STATE.....
 
SATURATED.  
   
..BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL
 
   
SNOW COVER.......
 
1 TO 3 INCHES, INCREASING UP TO 8 INCHES ON  
THE TUG HILL AND ADIRONDACKS.   
WATER EQUIVALENT.
 
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH, INCREASING TO  
UP TO 3 INCHES ON THE TUG HILL AND ADIRONDACKS.   
RIVER/CREEK FLOWS
 
ABOVE NORMAL.   
RIVER/CREEK ICE..
 
NONE.   
GROUND FROST.....
 
MAINLY THAWED, SPOTS FROZEN A FOOT DEEP.   
GROUND STATE.....
 
SATURATED.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT  
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW  
SHOWERS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL ONLY PRODUCE NEGLIGIBLE SWE AMOUNTS  
OF LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND  
AND WILL LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION WILL  
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH  
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH TIME, BUT THERE'S STILL NO INDICATION OF A  
SIGNIFICANT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM THROUGH MID-APRIL. THE LATEST  
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK SLIGHTLY FAVORS  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
   
..FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
 
THROUGH APRIL 15TH THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL.  
 
WITH A MINIMAL SNOW PACK IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME  
IRRELEVANT DURING LATTER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. WHAT  
LIMITED SNOW PACK IS THERE AFTER TODAY SHOULD QUICKLY MELT WITH  
THE WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH FLOWS ON THE BLACK RIVER WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND GRADUAL SNOW MELT  
DURING THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, FLOWS ARE ALREADY BELOW NORMAL AND  
SNOW PACK GONE SO IT WOULD TAKE AN ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM  
TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS NO INDICATION IN  
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. IT'S DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY  
RULE OUT A STRONG RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM LATE IN THE OUTLOOK  
PERIOD SO EVEN THOUGH THE FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL IT IS STILL  
NON-ZERO. ALWAYS BE SURE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST.  
   
..ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
 
 
REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC  
LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE FOUND ON THE  
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF. SINCE CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE, PLEASE  
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND STATEMENTS FOR  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 15TH IF ANY  
SNOWPACK REMAINS. OTHERWISE, THIS WILL BE THE LAST FLOOD POTENTIAL  
OUTLOOK FOR THE SEASON. WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL THE OBSERVERS  
AND AGENCIES WHICH HAVE HELPED GATHER DATA IN SUPPORT OF THIS  
OUTLOOK.  
 

 
 
APFFEL  
 
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