905
FNUS51 KBUF 152105
FWFBUF
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
404 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THIS EVENING. THE
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
AND SOME UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.
NYZ201-160900-
LAKE ONTARIO PLAINS-
404 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
TONIGHT SUN SUN NIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 100 70 70 50
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 20 0 0 0
MIN/MAX TEMP 35 43 25 39
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%) 100 54 100 52
AM WIND (MPH) W 15 G32 NW 12 G26
PM WIND (MPH) SW 10 G28 NW 16 G32 NW 14 G29 W 13 G26
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.29 0.11 0.09 0.04
PRECIP DURATION 8 10 8 2
PRECIP BEGIN 6 PM CONTINUING CONTINUING CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING CONTINUING 6 PM
MIXING HEIGHT (FT-AGL) 6380 6020
TRANSPORT WIND (KTS) S 15 NW 30 NW 25 NW 22
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 0 191400 0 132440
DISPERSION INDEX 0 191 0 132
REMARKS...NONE.
NYZ200-160900-
SOUTHERN TIER-
404 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
TONIGHT SUN SUN NIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 90 70 60 40
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 20 0 0 0
MIN/MAX TEMP 33 41 25 37
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%) 100 52 94 46
AM WIND (MPH) W 15 G30 NW 13 G23
PM WIND (MPH) SW 12 G26 NW 16 G31 NW 14 G27 NW 13 G23
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.14 0.10 0.08 0.03
PRECIP DURATION 5 9 5 2
PRECIP BEGIN 6 PM CONTINUING CONTINUING CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING CONTINUING 6 PM
MIXING HEIGHT (FT-AGL) 6340 110 5750
TRANSPORT WIND (KTS) SW 17 NW 33 NW 26 NW 26
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 0 209220 2860 149500
DISPERSION INDEX 0 209 3 150
REMARKS...NONE.
EXTENDED FORECAST
MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND
40.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS AROUND 50.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
WIND MONDAY NIGHT...WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
WIND TUESDAY...WEST AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND THURSDAY...NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND FRIDAY...EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND SATURDAY...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.
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