413
FNUS71 KALY 151246
FWSALY
SPOT FORECAST FOR DUTCH HILL...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EST ON JANUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE REGION
OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE MORNING WILL START OFF CLOUDY, WITH
SOME PERIODS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS THE
FRONT PASSES AROUND THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, THE WIND WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW. A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARMEST THIS MORNING
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S, BUT WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS, BUT IT WILL BE RATHER
COLD.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MIN HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............30 DECREASING TO 15.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9 TO 13 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 26
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 24 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (67200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............8.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08 INCHES.
TIME (EST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........82 68 77 80 85 76 73 74 75 71
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....SW SW SW RW RS SW SW SW SW SW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 30 30 40 30 30 30 30
TEMP............32 32 33 33 32 29 27 24 21 19
DEWPOINT........29 32 32 31 30 26 22 21 18 15
RH..............89 100 96 92 92 88 81 88 88 84
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 12 13
20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 15 17 21 21 22 22 22 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.3 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 17 18 21 26 26 25 24 24
LVORI...........7 10 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 5 14 20 32 62 67 61 48 45
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR GD GD GD FR FR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 6 ABOVE.
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............11 DECREASING TO 2.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 14 TO 21 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 33 MPH
INCREASING TO 35 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 TO 31 MPH INCREASING TO 36 TO 38 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (65400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO GOOD (37500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............5.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04 INCHES.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........61 56 63 60 73 73 75 75 80 82 79 77
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 20
TEMP............17 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 7
DEWPOINT........13 11 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1
RH..............84 80 80 80 76 76 76 76 72 76 79 76
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..14 14 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 20 21
20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 28 29 29 30 31 32 33 33 35 35
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 23 23 23 25 29 30 31 36 36 37 38
LVORI...........6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE KT-FT/1K..42 41 38 47 50 57 60 64 65 53 51 49
VENTRATE CAT....FR FR PR FR FR FR FR GD GD FR FR FR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 18.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............2 INCREASING TO 5 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 12 TO 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 36
MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 31 TO 39 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (13100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (69000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........67 62 58 44 30 28 26 24 29 35 40 47
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............6 7 8 9 10 12 14 16 17 18 18 17
DEWPOINT........1 0 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6
RH..............79 72 76 72 69 66 64 61 58 59 59 61
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..21 21 20 18 17 16 14 13 12 10 9 8
20 FT WIND GUST.36 35 35 35 33 32 30 23 21 18 16 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.38 38 39 39 39 38 35 31 26 22 17 15
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..50 47 63 69 68 68 65 58 46 32 21 13
VENTRATE CAT....FR FR GD GD GD GD GD FR FR PR PR PR
FORECASTER...27
REQUESTED BY...DAVE SZALLAI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2600217.0/ALY
.DELDT 01/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NHNECC@FIRENET.GOV
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