671
FXUS61 KALY 260005
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE REDUCED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS HAVE BEEN
MORE IN THE 12:1 TO 16:1 RANGE COMPARED TO THE 14:1 TO 20:1
RATIOS INITIALLY PREDICTED. STILL, A WIDESPREAD 12 TO 20 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AND CONSIDERABLE DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE.
2) CONTINUED WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILL
VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
AS OF 700 PM, SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH VARYING INTENSITIES. BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER HOUR
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM
AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. FARTHER NORTH, RATES
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 1 INCH PER HOUR OR LESS. WHILE OVERALL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TRACK, THE FINER
SNOWFLAKES AND LIMITED DENDRITES HAS LED TO REDUCED
ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO A LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS (12:1 TO
16:1) COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS (15:1 TO 20:1). STILL,
THIS HAS RESULTED IN TOTAL SNOWFALL THUS FAR RANGING FROM 10 TO
14 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY INTO
LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT, 6-10 INCHES ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
SOME POINTS FARTHER NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (WHERE HEAVY BANDING HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH THESE AREAS).
AN ADDITIONAL 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY STILL BRINGING TOTALS OF 12 TO 20 INCHES FOR MANY
AREAS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LOCATIONS OVER 20 INCHES. PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INTENSITY
BEGINS TO LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. WE THANK EVERYONE WHO HAS BEEN
SENDING US SNOWFALL REPORTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT!
PREVIOUS:
OUR WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
FALLING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW HAVE BEEN MAINLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THESE BANDS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN NORTHWARD INTO THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH. WE ARE ENTERING THE PORTION OF THE STORM WHERE THE
GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH
PER HOUR RATES ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR. TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS ROADS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW COVERED WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES (A
QUARTER OF A MILE OF LESS).
SNOWFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD 14 TO 24
INCHES WITH UP TO 30 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
ONCE AGAIN, THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE FROM NOW
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE SOME SLEET OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A
BRIEF TIME TONIGHT, THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SNOW
COVERED ROADS.
WINDS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR WITH NORTHEAST/NORTH WIND 5-15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD TODAY WITH VALUES ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS.
STEADY LIGHTER SNOWFALL OCCURS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE COASTAL LOW, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OF
CAPE COD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY. THE SNOW TAPERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY NIGHTFALL WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 20-30 MPH. LOWS WILL FALL
BACK IN THE 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL REACH THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SOME DAYS. LOWS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. SHORTWAVES
WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW AT TIMES OVER THE WEEK BRINGING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TIMING OF
THESE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES LOOK TO BE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER LATER IN THE WEEK WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS
LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR EACH. HOWEVER, DURING TIMES OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, SOME MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS CAN OCCUR.
OCCASIONAL BREEZES COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR COULD LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/TUE...WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING AS A WINTER STORM BRINGS A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO THE TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT (BETWEEN 03-6Z/MON) AS PRECIPITATION
RATES LOWER, LEADING TO MORE IFR CIGS/VSBYS BY 12Z/MON. PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BUT VSBYS/CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE, POSSIBLY LIFTING TO MVFR FOR A TIME,
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND BETWEEN 5-10 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF TONIGHT. WIND WILL THEN
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
PERIODS OF LLWS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KPOU AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT KPSF AS WINDS AT 2000 FEET INCREASE TO
40-50 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
TOP 10 JANUARY SNOWSTORMS AT ALBANY, NY (1885 TO PRESENT)
1. JAN 15-16, 1983 24.5"
2. JAN 3-4, 2003 20.8"
3. JAN 18-20, 1936 17.9"
4. JAN 14-19, 1958 17.6"
JAN 6-9, 1953 17.6"
6. JAN 6-7, 2002 17.4"
7. JAN 22-23, 1987 16.6"
8. JAN 16-17, 1945 15.8"
9. JAN 13-14, 1964 15.4"
10.JAN 19-20, 2019 13.9"
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...15/33
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...15
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