013
FXUS61 KALY 191757
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED WIND GUST MAGNITUDES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES, WHERE NYS MESONET HAS ALREADY INDICATED
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH/EAST OF ALBANY.
3) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, BUT
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS MAINLY
ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST NYS MESONET OBS INDICATING WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SIMILAR WIND GUST MAGNITUDES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FATHER EAST ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY SATURDAY, THOUGH A BIT LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO REACH 25-30 MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPSTREAM LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY MEAGER, HOWEVER WITH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT, A FEW BRIEF GUSTY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHALLOW
INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT GREATER THAN TODAY, SO CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THESE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-90,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AGAIN TRIGGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH BEST COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT. INSTABILITY LOOKS A BIT GREATER/DEEPER SUNDAY,
SO THERE COULD BE SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS. OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, HOWEVER LINGERING COLD
AIR ALOFT AND A SOMEWHAT INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL FORECAST SOUNDING
SIGNATURE COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL WHERE THE TALLEST CONVECTIVE CORES DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PA OR NY
MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS. HOWEVER, OVERALL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE
LOW ULTIMATELY TRACKS.
13Z/19 NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >1" RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM TUESDAY
ARE 60-80% NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90, AND 40-60% TO THE NORTH.
SIMILAR 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >2" RAINFALL ARE 30-50% FOR AREAS
NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY.
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE A STEADY RAINFALL DURING MONDAY MAY ALSO
HAVE UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN INITIAL WET BULB
COOLING OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS, WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY
ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 60S IF RAIN LASTS MOST OF THE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER, WITH A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOK TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
SOME OF THE CIG HEIGHTS COULD GET CLOSE TO MVFR LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL WESTERLY AROUND 12-20
KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY,
DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/24
AVIATION...07
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