748
FXUS61 KALY 251857
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
257 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
2) A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION TOMORROW, THOUGH COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ISOLATED.
3) TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW HOT IT WILL
BECOME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NESTLED IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK EASTWARD BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT, AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE AND IS TRACKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LARGELY
WITHIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN
TONIGHT. THIS BATCH WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
LAPSE RATES LOOK TO STEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
SHORTWAVE'S COLD POOL OVERSPREADING THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY,
SOME WEAK, ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT AND
INTERSECT THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. AND, AS THIS
WILL BE A FAIRLY RAPID FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PIVOT OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OTHER THAN MINOR
PONDING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TOMORROW, INSTABILITY INCREASES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
LOW AS IT TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH. 0-6KM, LINE-NORMAL BULK
SHEAR REACHING 40-50 KT PAIRED WITH ~500-800 MLCAPE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF UPDRAFTS SHOULD THERE BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE PERTAINS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY GET THINGS GOING IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO RACE AHEAD
OF ITS PASSAGE. DETERMINISTIC CAMS SEEM TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE IN EVEN SHOWERS GIVEN THIS SET UP FOR
TOMORROW, SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKEWISE BE VERY ISOLATED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MUCH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS TO THE EAST TOMORROW WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED IN THE MEDIUM- TO
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE AS EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWEST OFF AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD NEXT WEEK, GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
WILL RISE AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO 1-2 STDEVS
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, JULY 4TH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PERIODS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAKING FOR RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS. THAT SAID,
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO TOP THE RIDGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF HEAT THAT WE SEE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE CRESTS
OVER OUR AREA, WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF HEAT THAT
WE EXPERIENCE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
GOING FORWARD AND PROVIDE UPDATES WHERE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT
SHOWERS AT KGFL AND KALB BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z WHICH COULD LOWER
CEILINGS TO MVFR. LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT APPROACH. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST BY ABOUT 03Z AT KGFL AND KALB
AND BY 05Z AT KPOU AND KPSF. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWERED TO
MVFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CEILINGS FIRST AND THEN MVFR
VISIBILITY AS MORE MODERATE AND STEADIER RAIN ARRIVES. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT EMBEDDED IN THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH,
HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE STILL LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME SO IT
IS MENTIONED IN A PROB30 FROM 04Z TO 08Z. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIKELY
LOWER TO IFR AS MIST/FOG COULD DEVELOP AS THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO
SUNRISE. BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ACROSS ALL
THE TERMINALS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF CALM WINDS. WINDS
THEN PICK BACK UP BY MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...53
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