706
FXUS61 KALY 101921
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
221 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN THE
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLIPPERY TRAVEL FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.
2) THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A COASTAL STORM TO BRING MODERATE
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID-LEVEL, UPPER-LOW CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRAVERSING SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WITH A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW JUST
BENEATH IT AS INDICATED ON SPC'S HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE. AN
AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE CURRENTLY
EXPANDING INTO THE REGION AND STRENGTHENING, DRIVING AN INITIAL
BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
UPSTREAM IN WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK WHERE THE WARM NOSE IS
CURRENTLY THE MOST PREVALENT, SOME OF THE LATEST OBS HAVE INDICATED
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW, BUT THERE IS STILL AN
EXPECTATION FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE HERE GIVEN
925-850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, A
SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST. HOWEVER, ONCE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OF THE CLIPPER AND THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
FARTHER EAST, INCREASED FORCING WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION FILLING
BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. FOR MOST, PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN AS
SNOW, BUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND, SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND THE EVENING COMMUTE DUE TO THE EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM NOSE. THIS COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR SLICK CONDITIONS FOR
THE EVENING COMMUTE SO CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR ALL ROUTINE TRAVELERS.
THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHEREIN PRECIPITATION WILL
LARGELY BE DONE BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TOMORROW
DUE TO A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS ONCE THE DGZ BEGINS TO DRY OUT,
BUT OTHERWISE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.
HERE, UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MODERATE IMPACTS FROM
A COASTAL STORM THAT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED BY MEDIUM- TO LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRANKLY,
THIS IS GOING TO BE AN ALL OR NOTHING TYPE OF EVENT GIVEN WITH TWO
POSSIBLE SITUATIONS. THE FIRST, AND MOST LIKELY SITUATION, INDICATES
A SUFFICIENT DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
SUPPRESSION OF A POTENT, CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH. IN THIS SITUATION,
THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
DEPARTING OFF THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
LITTLE NORTHERN PROGRESS. THE SECOND, LOW PROBABILITY SITUATION,
DEVELOPS MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW TO STEER NORTHWARD AS IT ENTERS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. IN THE FIRST SITUATION, WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEING FAVORED
BY ALMOST 80% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WE WOULD SEE VERY LITTLE IF ANY
RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE SECOND, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW WOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS LEAD TIME
DECREASES, BUT AS OF NOW, THIS STORM LIKELY WILL NOT POSE AN ISSUE
FOR US LOCALLY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY, APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST, ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 19Z-22Z/TUE. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE AT KGFL, KPSF AND KALB. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW TO SE BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 00Z/WED-06Z/WED, WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF, AND
A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AT KALB. AT POU, A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR AS THIS BAND TRACKS THROUGH, ALONG WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS BAND, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO REMAIN MAINLY MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK WED, WITH
PATCHY IFR CIGS (AND VSBYS) POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY AT
KPSF, AND ALSO AT KPOU (WHERE SOME GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP). FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 13Z-15Z/WED.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT
KALB/KPSF LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND
MAY LINGER AT 4-8 KT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ047-
051-058>061-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24
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