562
FXUS61 KALY 051047
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST
OF ALBANY TODAY WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE ARRIVAL TIME FOR RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
2) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.
3) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM CONDITIONS AND DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY WHERE PRECIPITATION FAILS TO OCCUR
UNTIL TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFFECTED AREAS WILL REACH THE
MID-70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S BUT STILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING TO AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT. STRONG LOW- LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH WITH A LOCALIZED GUST TO 40 MPH NOT RULED OUT. COORDINATION
WITH STATE PARTNERS ON MONDAY LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FDRA WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, EASTERN CATSKILLS, TACONICS AND MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW (~40
PERCENT) AND COORDINATION WITH STATE PARTNERS, A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN TO COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL NEAR-
FUTURE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, IT WILL BE
RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS,
EXCEPT THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL AID IN 0-6 KM SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WHICH COULD
BRING SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HELP
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT THEN FORCING BEGINS TO
DECREASE INTO THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED IF
NOT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS
CONTINUE TO PLACE THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT CLOSER TO THE
PRIMARY FRONT. A STRONG, DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD COULD HELP
GENERATE SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELL OR BOWING STRUCTURES WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME INSTANCES OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME INSTANCES
OF HAIL AS WELL BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE SECONDARY THREAT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET AFTER THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT
WITHIN THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT, ONCE AGAIN FAVORING
AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BE ONGOING OR BEGIN
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY AND THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IF ANY THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS, CREEKS AND STREAMS IS LIKELY, HOWEVER.
THE COMBINATION OF RAIN TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BRING RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.50 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S. PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY BE STUCK IN THE 40S.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEK AND PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. IF ENOUGH CLEARING
OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT, SOME PATCHY FROST MAY FORM WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN, MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF CYCLE WITH SCT-
BKN CIRRUS AND SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE FORECAST AREA IS
IN A WARM SECTOR, AS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE KALB-
KGFL CORRIDOR 11Z-16Z/TUE. WE PLACED SOME VCSH GROUPS IN FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS. CIGS MAY LOWER TO 5-8 KFT AGL WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A STRONG PREFRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT MAY
FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO IMPACT KALB NORTH TO KGFL LATE THIS PM INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. WE CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
21Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED FOR KGFL AND 22Z/TUE TO 01Z/WED FOR KALB. WE
DID INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR KPSF EARLY TONIGHT, BUT KEPT IT
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHING KGFL
03Z-06Z/WED WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. THE CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER
TO MVFR WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OF RAINFALL APPROACHING KALB-KGFL
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
LLWS WAS CONTINUED AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF UNTIL 14Z/TUE, AS THE SFC
WINDS ARE LIGHT AT 7 KT OR LESS AND THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST REMAINING 35-40 KT. KALB WILL LIKELY
HOLD SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT
THIS MORNING. THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
10-18 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 25-32 KT AT ALL THE TAF SITES IN THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT
NEAR KGFL/KALB. THE WINDS DECREASE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
00Z/WED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. LLWS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE ONCE
AGAIN A KPOU/KPSF WITH THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS 40-45 KT. LLWS WAS
LEFT OUT OF KALB/KGFL WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE 2 KFT AGL. THE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AT 7 KT OR
LESS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ208.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35/33
AVIATION...15
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