789
FXUS61 KALY 152323
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL LIMITING
FACTORS REMAIN IN PLAY THAT MAY PREVENT MUCH SEVERE WEATHER
FROM OCCURRING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS, AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. CONTINUED GUSTY AND
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:45 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION, MORNING CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY CALM WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER,
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
LEVEL OUT AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWS
WILL MAINLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT, AND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO 40S.
TONIGHT, A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW.
THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EMBEDDED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75", SO
SOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE, MAKING FOR A WET FRIDAY AM COMMUTE.
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AND WHILE WE
WILL NOT MIX DEEP ENOUGH FOR GUSTS THAT STRONG TO MAKE IT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE, WINDS GUSTS INCREASE AS THE LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD.
MAXIMUM GUSTS LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 MPH, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE TACONICS/SOUTHERN GREENS AND AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
DUE TO FLOW CHANNELING. THESE WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN A FEW LARGE
LIMBS OR TREES, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OR
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORY ISSUANCE. BY MID-MORNING,
SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING FOR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT A BREAK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL HERE, WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE THANKS TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF +14 TO +16C. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR,
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE LLJ MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
BEFORE ANY BREAKS OF SUN/DEEPER MIXING OCCUR.
THEN, TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
STRONG CVA AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT, LEADING TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ULSTER/DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WHETHER WE WILL SEE MUCH (IF
ANY) SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR CWA. LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE:
SBCAPE LOOKS QUITE LIMITED, WITH ONLY 100 TO POSSIBLY 250 J/KG,
AND WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAP
SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WILL LEAD TO THE PRESENCE OF
SOME SBCIN. WHILE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE, MUCH OF THE
AREA IN QUESTION WILL LIKELY SEE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW AS WELL THAT WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE IN OUR AREA AS FOR AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AS WE
WILL SEE A MORE GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW AND EVENTUALLY
W/NW. FINALLY, ANY CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA UNTIL ~4 PM, AT WHICH POINT WE WILL ALREADY BE STARTING TO
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. LOW AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN
IMPRESSIVE, SO THIS IS NOT TO SAY WE WON'T HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEING ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC AND
REACH SEVERE LEVELS REMAINS QUITE LOW.
THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS INFILTRATING THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. SHOWERS COME TO
AND END FOR MOST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT LINGERING
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE ADKS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS. BY THE TIME
RAIN COMES TO AN END, MOST AREAS WILL SEE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAIN, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-90. GIVEN
QUICK STORM MOTIONS AND LONG DURATION OF THE RAIN, NO HYDRO ISSUES
EXPECTED. A COATING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
ADKS. WINDS ALSO REMAIN GUSTY OF OUT THE W/NW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MIXING IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE VERY PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, WINDS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY DID
A COUPLE DAYS AGO. GUSTS COULD REACH 30 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SFC. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FALL SO FAR
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S (TERRAIN) TO 40S (VALLEYS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. WHILE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED
REGION-WIDE, WILL STILL MENTION THAT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW TO
WEAK, TRANSIENT RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S), TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH QUIET, TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
TRACKS EAST OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS. A FEW DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR EARLY TO MID FRIDAY
MORNING, SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PROB30 FOR POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH KPOU MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
LINE OF DOWNPOURS ALONG A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN 20Z-24Z FRIDAY. WILL MENTION PROB30 FOR
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH +SHRA AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF, BUT DUE
TO SOME INSTABILITY WILL MENTION +TSRA AT KPOU. WILL REFINE
TIMING IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES
STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS A SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-45 KT AT
2000 FT AGL MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE LLWS SHOULD DISSIPATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KT, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 8-15 KT
LATE TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT DEVELOPING AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...07
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