119
FXUS61 KALY 040646
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN VALLEY AREAS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT
INDEX 95F OR HIGHER) IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. LATEST HEATRISK
GUIDANCE SHOWS MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY STORM CAN
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VERY COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY INTO
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEN, A
BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
WILL ADVECT A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS FROM THE GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH PWATS REACHING 2 ST DEV
ABOVE NORMAL PER THE NAEFS AND RANKING ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
OF THE CFSR CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY AUGUST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S BECOMES SHEARED OUT AS
IT TRACKS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH BROAD TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AS
THE NORTHEAST IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGHING AND
BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE SUPPORTING INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE MOIST AIR MASS IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE
WILL EASILY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SFC PRESSURE
TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
TRADITIONAL PEAK HEATING HOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SHOULD THE SFC
TROUGH PUSH EASTWARD. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
THE LATEST AI NWP CONVECTIVE HAZARD FORECAST SHOWING 15 - 30%
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. SIMILAR SET- UP FOR FRIDAY BUT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO INCREASE AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGHING
AND SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD. THESE FACTORS CAN ALSO SUPPORT
A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE AI NWP CONVECTIVE
HAZARD FORECAST SHOWING 15-30% CHANCE AND EVEN A NARROW SWATH OF
30-45%. OTHERWISE, WPC MAINTAINS A WIDESPREAD MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAYS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COMBINATION OF UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASES THE
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS.
LATEST HEATRISK GRAPHICS SHOW MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND REACHING THE MINOR CATEGORY ON THURSDAY WITH MINOR
TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY. LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
40 TO 60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 85 DEGREES BOTH DAYS
IN VALLEY AREAS WITH A 60 TO 90% CHANCE IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. THERE IS EVEN A 15 TO 30% CHANCE THAT THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY REACHES OR EXCEEDS 90 DEGREES. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL NECESSITATE HEAT ADVISORIES
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. PLAN TO AVOID
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BOTH DAYS, HAVE A WAY TO STAY COOL
OR ACCESS AIR CONDITIONING AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, EVEN IF
YOU ARE NOT THIRSTY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY CALM
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH WINDS WEAKENING AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES, SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG/MIST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL AND KPSF, ALTHOUGH KPOU IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE REDUCTIONS
IN VIS, REFLECTED BY TEMPOS AT THESE TERMINALS FROM 08Z-12Z.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW FOR THE SAME TO DEVELOP AT KALB,
THUS IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KGFL, WHICH
WILL SEE WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING CALM AGAIN BY SUNSET,
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...23
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