201
FXUS61 KALY 011714
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
UPWARD EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, ONE
MORE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK,
SHALLOW INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 300 J/KG),
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL AID IN SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE AREAS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY SHOWER BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE
COMFORTABLE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE WITH RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY
IN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE, BUT MOST ARE INDICATING AT LEAST
SOME INCREASED CHANCES AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BRING SCT -SHRA TO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON/ KPSF EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE BRIEF ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DISSIPATING AFTER DARK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION AND
ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF.
CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING IS FAIRLY HIGH, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY
11Z TUESDAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND EARLY SUNRISE THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT,
BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...07
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