937
FXUS61 KALY 280233
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
933 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. AFTER BRIEFLY DRYING
OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW
SQUALLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED
SNOW SQUALLS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR SOME AREAS.
UPDATES:
AS OF 9:30 PM... LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BRINGING SNOW SQUALLS AND SHOWERS BETWEEN 4 AM AND 9 AM.
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR SCANS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AS SNOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
ALSO UPDATED SKY COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT THREE TO FIVE HOURS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION
TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FORECAST TRENDS. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS DOING WELL THROUGH 6 AM TOMORROW
MORNING.
AS OF 6:50 PM...MINOR UPDATE TO WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT THREE
HOURS IN EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY TO REFLECT CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AS WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TO BETWEEN 5 TO 15 MPH.
ALSO UPDATED WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY FOR THE
NEXT TWO HOURS AS WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DOING WELL AND ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT,
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION:
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A 40-60 KT LLJ OVERHEAD WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH. LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 45 WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
ELSEWHERE. INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SNOW SQUALLS,
ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST, DUE IN PART
TO VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LIFT/ENHANCED
FGEN ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THESE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY
TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING
OF THESE SQUALLS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY AND FROM 7 TO 9 AM AROUND ALBANY AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE IN SOME
AREAS DUE TO BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WITH A
COATING TO AN INCH OR SO ELSEWHERE WHERE SNOW SQUALLS OCCUR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SNOW SHOWERS, A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE (5 TO 8 HPA IN 3 HOURS PER THE NAM) COULD RESULT
IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS EVENT.
DISCUSSION:
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASING COVERAGE WITH SOME AREAS
'WARM SECTORED' PENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. STEEPENING
LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF AN PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SQUALLS. WHILE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90 HAVE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SEEING SQUALLS (>60
PERCENT) A SQUALL COULD HAPPEN ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION (AT
LEAST 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY). AS A RESULT, THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COMMUTE COULD BE IMPACTED. OTHERWISE, LAKE- EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY, NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND
ACROSS WINDHAM COUNTY, VERMONT. ELSEWHERE, 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEPT 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS.
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE BRIEF RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AREAS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY
BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY (30-40%) AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (40-60%) WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON STORM
TRACKS, PTYPE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION:
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY ALLOWS FOR
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PRECIPITATION EVENTS, EXACT AMOUNTS AND
TYPES REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, LEADING TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, KEEPING OUR AREA ON
THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF THE PRECIP, ALTHOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAR
NORTH IS STILL IN QUESTION. BOTH TEMPS ALOFT AND WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY MARGINAL. THE 12Z GEFS SUGGEST A
VARIETY OF P-TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
RAIN, SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ALL A POTENTIAL THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR NOW, WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS RAIN OR SNOW
BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS, WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 30%-50% RANGE
AT THIS TIME.
IT SHOULD BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPS RETURNING FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER DAYTIME
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IN THE 20S, LOWS LOOK COLD ON SAT NIGHT,
WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW MUCH PRECIP IS STILL IN
QUESTION. WITH A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE, P-TYPE WOULD MORE
LIKELY BE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT AMOUNTS AND TIMING. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 40-60% RANGE FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S
THROUGH THIS EVENT.
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AT THIS TIME TO START NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 11Z. FOR KGFL, KALB, KPSF, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR THE TIMING OF SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL BETWEEN 11Z AND
13Z SO KEPT MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS, VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 4 AND
6 MILES DUE TO FALLING SNOW, AND BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS
IN THE PREVAILING GROUP. BY 13Z, SQUALLS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 15Z SO KEPT
MENTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN PROB30 GROUPS FOR 13Z TO 15Z FOR
KALB AND KPSF AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGFL. BY 15Z, CONDITIONS
RETURN TO VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS
CONTINUING THROUGH 21Z TO 23Z BEFORE DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. FOR KPOU, CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SO KEPT MENTION OF ANY SNOWFALL IN A PROB30
GROUP AS LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING BEFORE REACHING THE KPOU TERMINAL. ALSO KEPT MENTION
OF LLWS FOR KPSF AND KPOU THROUGH 11Z AND 14Z BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN
NEAR TERM...RATHBUN/WEBB
SHORT TERM...RATHBUN
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...WEBB
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