118
FXUS61 KALY 092315
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
715 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOMORROW DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT, AND MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADKS AND CT RIVER VALLEY. ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ALSO TRIMMED BACK POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY, ICE JAM
FLOOD THREAT LOOKS TO BE DECLINING, BUT STILL MONITORING
POTENTIAL RIVER RISES THIS WEEK DUE TO SNOWMELT AND RAIN LATER
THIS WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH ALONG WITH MID-WEEK RAIN WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. RISES ARE EXPECTED ON
AREA RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS, WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
2) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION, RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ENDING AS WET SNOW
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
3) COLDER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION..
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 1:55 PM EDT...OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF DEEP
SW FLOW, WHICH IS RESULTING IN LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20 KT,
DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S
FOR MANY VALLEY AREAS PER LATEST ASOS AND NYS MESONET OBS. THIS
IS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE. DEW POINTS ALSO
RUNNING SEVERAL (IN SOME CASES 10+) DEGREES BELOW NBM GUIDANCE,
SO THESE CHANGES WERE MADE AS WELL. DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, AND WE COULD THEREFORE
SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
WITH LOWS AND DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AGAIN WARM BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS, POSSIBLY TO THE LOW 70S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY, DESPITE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND
COMPARED TO TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
WEDNESDAY, NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS PHASE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARDS
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH 850 MB TEMPS INCREASING TO +12 TO +14C. IT
WILL LIKELY TAKE THE WARM FRONT LONGER THAN MODELED TO LIFT NORTH
WITH A RETREATING 1030+ MB SFC HIGH TO THE N/NE, BUT SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S. FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/EAST SLOPES OF THE ADKS
AND CT RIVER VALLEY IN VT, HOWEVER, THERE IS A PRETTY STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE, SO WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE BY BLENDING IN SOME OF
THE NAM IN COORDINATION WITH BTV AND GYX. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL WARM
FRONT, BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT.
WITH THE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEPEST SNOWPACK
IS ACROSS THE ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE THERE REMAINS AS MUCH
AS 6-8" OF LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK, BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOLER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. WHILE WE
ARE CERTAINLY EXPECTING SOME SNOWMELT HERE, THE SNOWPACK MAY
COMPRESS FURTHER BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT
OCCURS SO CONFIDENCE ON FLOOD POTENTIAL HERE IS RATHER LOW. EVEN
STILL, THE NERFC IS EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING ON THE MOHAWK
RIVER AT DELTA DAM, AND THE WEST CANADA CREEK, WITH THE
SACANDAGA RIVER POTENTIALLY APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE
THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, MANY VALLEY AREAS HAVE
LOST MUCH OF THEIR SNOWPACK, BUT THE CATSKILLS, MOHAWK VALLEY,
AND WESTERN MA/CT STILL HAVE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF LIQUID IN
THE SNOWPACK. WHILE MORE OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY MELT IN THESE
AREAS, THERE IS OVERALL LESS LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK. SO, WHILE
RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED, THE PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOODING
LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR ON THE HOUSATONIC
WHERE THERE SOME MINOR FLOODING IS REMAINS POSSIBLE.
THE GREATEST RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY, WHEN THERE WILL BE CONTRIBUTION TO RUNOFF NOT JUST FROM
SNOWMELT, BUT FROM RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS WHEN
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING WILL BE. WILL MENTION THAT WITH
AN OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, QPF HAS TRENDED DOWN
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION (MORE DETAILS IN KEY MESSAGE 2, BELOW),
WITH MOST AREAS NOW EXPECTED TO SEE UNDER A HALF INCH WITH EVEN LESS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE REDUCED QPF MAY PREVENT MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES THAT WE WERE WORRIED ABOUT PREVIOUSLY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE QPF AMOUNTS
MAY END UP UNDER A QUARTER INCH.
FINALLY, WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ICE JAM ISSUES,
MAINLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND/OR ADKS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF ICE ON THE MOHAWK RIVER
BETWEEN LOCK 6 AND LOCK 8 THIS MORNING, WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER. FORTUNATELY, WARMING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP TO MELT SOME OF THE RIVER ICE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, SO OTHERWISE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ICE JAM
ISSUES LOOKS FAIRLY LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS TO OUR WEST, S/SE WINDS BECOME GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. STRENGTHENING SW LLJ WITH A
CONNECTION TO THE GULF WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO OVER 1.25",
WHICH IS +3-4 SIGMA PER THE LATEST NAEFS. HOWEVER, THE BEST
UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA AND LAG BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT DOES LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. WILL LIKELY SEE A COLD
FRONTAL RAINBAND WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER (MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY, MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-90) TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AM. WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION COULD END AS SOME WET SNOW,
ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL. WINDS BECOME GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY, WITH COLD ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADKS AS WELL. FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PUT AN END TO SNOWMELT, BUT RIVERS CONTINUE TO
RISE INTO THURSDAY AS THE RUNOFF MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS COOL (LOWS IN THE
20S) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THEN, FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT,
A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK
THIS FAR OUT, BUT A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE A TRACK FURTHER
NORTH WOULD RESULT IN LESS PRECIP OVERALL AND KEEP THE SNOW
CONFINED TO MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WE REMAIN COOL SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER. THEN, SUNDAY, ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY TRACK TO OUR WEST, BUT ITS APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE THANKS TO NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE REGION. JUST SOME PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
IMPACTING NORTHERN AREAS AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH THIS IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS NOW IN PLACE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A TEMPO FOR IFR MIST THERE JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. NO MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED FOR KPOU AND KALB DUE TO A
HIGHER T/TD SPREAD. IT WILL BE VFR FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND JUST SOME PASSING
CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND WINDS LOOK LIGHT TO
CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AT 2 KFT WILL BE
NEAR 30-35 KTS AT KGFL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL STILL
MENTION A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS THERE, BUT THIS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AT ALL SITES AROUND 5 KTS OR SO.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FG.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...SN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...27
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