192
FXUS61 KALY 112352
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN FULTON AND NORTHERN
SARATOGA COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO BRIEF/LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.
2. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
3. A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN CHANGE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR, OBS AND WEBCAMS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. FORCING IS DECENT AND 0-3 KM, LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP AT ~7 TO 8C/KM, BUT SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SQUALLS INCLUDE LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG WITH FAIRLY
MILD SURFACE/GROUND TEMPERATURES(MID 30S TO LOWER 40S)
ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST. STILL, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS EXISTS BETWEEN 2 PM TO 8 PM ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SUDDEN LOWERING OF
VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH,
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP TO BELOW 32F AND A QUICK COATING OF SNOW
CAN CREATE BRIEF/LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE W. ADIRONDACKS, W.
MOHAWK VALLEY AND S. GREEN MOUNTAINS IN THE NW CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME. ONLY AN INCH OF SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS, WITH 1-3" IN THE W. ADIRONDACKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE DECENT MIXING, EVEN WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LOWERING. WINDS
~50 MPH NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL POTENTIALLY MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA, WITH CHANNELING
EXPECTED IN TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN W-NW FLOW SUCH AS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES. ONLY
CHANGE TO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
INTO N. FULTON AND N. SARATOGA COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS WILL
DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA(< 46 MPH) AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-35 MPH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ADDITIONAL 1-3")
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT, ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING SE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO S.
ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WITH THE PARENT CYCLONE
EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS ANTICIPATED.
UPSLOPE SW FLOW COULD LEAD TO SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE S.
ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION THERE.
AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER GRADUALLY START TO
SAG SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA ON WED, CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE. AGAIN LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH FOR
RAIN, WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THEN LOWERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT STALLS NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH BAROCLINICITY FOR CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE DELMARVA IN THE
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT TIME FRAME. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THERE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES ARE 30-50% FOR >
2" OF SNOW AND 10-40% FOR > 4". AT THIS TIME, THE BULK OF HEAVY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SOUTH/EAST AS THE EXPECTED UPPER TROUGH
POSITION FAVORS MORE A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE OFFSHORE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 6:50 PM EST.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AT GFL/POU. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING AT ALB, AND AT PSF EXPECTING
CIGS TO TREND TO MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
LINGERING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE, DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED VCSH GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
AND PROB30S AT ALB/PSF WHERE CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IS HIGHEST. TOMORROW, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR GFL TOMORROW EVENING, WILL ONLY
INCLUDE A VCSH THERE AT THIS TIME, AS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT TO THE OTHER TERMINALS TOMORROW EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KT
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN INCREASE TO
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KT, LOCALLY UP TO 45 KT AT ALB/PSF
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE, THEN BY MID-MORNING VEER TO THE W/SW AT
AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-
058>061-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35
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