557
FXUS61 KALY 052322
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
622 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BRING SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT BE TAKEN TO LIMIT
EXPOSURE.
3. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO RANGE
BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES WIDESPREAD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SNOW
CHARACTER WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, MORE OF A FLUFFY NATURE
THAN WET. SNOW TAPERS OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
DRIER AIR RETURNS AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
INCREASING WINDS AFTER THE SNOW ENDS, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
CAN OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CAUSING ROADS TO RE-COVER WITH SNOW THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
TREATED. SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS OF 1 PM EST...EXTREME COLD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT, A
PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES ('FEELS-LIKE'
TEMPERATURES) WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AIR TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. AIR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE IN PART TO AN
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND WIND WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES
('FEELS-LIKE' TEMPERATURES) TO BEGIN REACHING AT LEAST COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOWEST WIND CHILL, OR 'FEELS-LIKE'
TEMPERATURE, WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO (NEAR EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA).
A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT STILL GUST BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WIND CHILL VALUES, OR 'FEELS-
LIKE' TEMPERATURES, WILL REBOUND DURING THE DAY RANGING FROM 5
ABOVE ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO AS ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HOWEVER, WIND CHILL VALUES MAY FALL
BACK TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A LIGHT BREEZE LINGERS AND TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO BETWEEN 0
AND 15 BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS. AIR
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO THE TEENS AND 20S ON MONDAY WITH
EVEN LESS WIND COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THEN APPEAR
TO RISE INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE DO NOT HAVE ALBANY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE ITS 'DEEP FREEZE'
STREAK FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY UPPER SHORTWAVES TRACK
THROUGH THE FLOW ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN. FOR NOW,
WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN, HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT KPSF AROUND
SUNRISE. THEN, CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BY AROUND 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP, BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WHICH IS JUST
OUTSIDE THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 3-5 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHSN.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...BS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ041>043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-
083-084.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...05/33
AVIATION...07
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