901  
FXUS61 KALY 202352  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
752 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS  
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH 50S ABOVE 2000 FEET. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
RETURN FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 752 PM EDT...A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS  
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW  
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NW PA, WITH ANTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW  
ALONG THE STORM'S OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES OF NY.  
MEANWHILE, THE STORM'S WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OUT AS A  
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE-  
SARATOGA REGION, WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CHILLY  
ACROSS THE GLENS FALLS AREA. MEANWHILE, THE STORM'S COLD FRONT  
HAS BEEN SWEEPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HAS SPREAD ACROSS  
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH JUST SOUTHERN VT LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW  
WARM SECTOR AT THIS TIME.  
 
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING  
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES . THIS SHOULD ALLOW  
THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN AREAS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT  
NORTHWARD, WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF  
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, DRIER AIR AT  
LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE  
LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LINGERING MID  
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  
WITH OUR REGION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND STILL TOO FAR AWAY FROM  
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, FORCING FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE LACKING  
OVERNIGHT, SO IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 
THE PASSING OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS THE  
GRADIENT RELAXES, BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROBABLY  
REMAIN FOR MOST AREAS. WITH A LIGHT BREEZE AND DRIER AIR MOVING  
IN, THIS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, SHELTERED  
VALLEYS COULD LOCALLY SEE SOME FOG, AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAIN COULD GET TRAPPED WITHIN SOME OF THE  
TIGHTER TERRAIN FEATURES.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, WITH THE  
COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY  
THEN BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHEN SOME. THIS IN  
TURN WILL BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY  
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
THE EVENING.  
 
MILD TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 60S WITH 50S FOR AREAS  
MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FEET AND LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE 40S.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY  
SHIFTING THE NORTH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN  
FOLLOWED BY BRIEF DRY PERIODS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A RAPIDLY TRANSLATING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  
LOW APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN  
PLACE WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S  
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE  
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF  
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS NORTH OF I-90. BRIEF MID-LEVEL  
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR  
MUCH OF THURSDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  
 
THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO THE  
REGION. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY  
QUICKLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY  
RESULTING IN A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE  
POPS FOR THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH  
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY SEEING THE WARMEST  
TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S, WITH THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN FALLING INTO THE 30S ON SOME NIGHTS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH BKN MID AND  
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE. SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS CURRENTLY IN  
PLACE AT KGFL, BUT THIS LOOKS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY, AS A  
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND BRINGS  
SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING AND  
DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY  
AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS, THEY SHOULD LOWER OVER THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND WILL  
GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
ON SUNDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES  
WILL BE SCT-BKN AROUND 10 KFT THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY  
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE, COVERAGE LOOKS FAIRLY  
LOW AND IT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS  
TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS  
THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AFTER A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER  
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS  
MONDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELED SINCE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL HAS ENDED. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY FAIR  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS RETURN FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON  
RIVER VALLEY.  
 
FLOOD WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT  
HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE WITH MINOR FLOODING BEING REPORTED  
BETWEEN HINCKLEY AND HERKIMER, THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK,  
THE SACANDAGA AT HOPE, THE HUDSON RIVER NORTH CREEK, HADLEY AND  
FORT EDWARD.  
 
PLEASE VISIT OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/  
WEB PAGE FOR SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES OBSERVATIONS AND  
FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...IAA  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS  
SHORT TERM...IAA  
LONG TERM...CEBULKO  
AVIATION...FRUGIS  
FIRE WEATHER...IAA  
HYDROLOGY...IAA  
 
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