393
FXUS61 KALY 051038
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2022
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE
RADAR INDICATING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBS AREN'T
SHOWING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL YET. SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE RANGE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
WHEN THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS[0347]
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE CYCLONE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO AREAS NORTH OF I-90 AND HAVE BEEN LIGHT. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY NORTH OF ALBANY, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP.
THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR GETTING INTO A TRUE WARM SECTOR. BEST CHANCES FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME LIMITED WARMING WILL BE SOUTH OF
ALBANY LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CHANNEL UP TO THE
HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 MPH EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING.
HREF CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A CLOUDIER/COOLER SCENARIO
DUE TO CONSENSUS ON A MORE SOUTHERN CYCLONE TRACK COMPARED TO
PRIOR FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A GOOD 5-10
DEGREES (UPPER 60S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH). AS A RESULT IT
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY,
ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 200-700 J/KG) IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING. WILL
MENTION CHANCES FOR THUNDER GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD DURING
THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +2 STDEV. SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY REPEATED AREAS OF DOWNPOURS FOR POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING, BUT OVERALL THIS THREAT SHOULD BE LOW AS THE
RAINFALL WILL BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL. HREF PROBS FOR > 1" RAIN
IN 3 HOURS IS MAINLY 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
~30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
FOR 3 HOURS IS GENERALLY 2-3". WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS DESPITE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KT.
TIMING IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FASTER, SO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS AROUND, WITH UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER/MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ON WEDNESDAY, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY IN THE MORNING, BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PWAT ANOMALIES DROPPING TO -1 TO -2
STDEV. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SUNSHINE WITH DEWPOINTS
GRADUALLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A N-NW BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS.
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE DRY, SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL EFFICIENTLY WITH LOWS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S).
A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATING A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY. WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON THE
EXACT TRACK, WILL MENTION SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SOME
SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS
TIME, SINCE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER (SBCAPE < 200 J/KG). THE
DEGREE OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING IS QUESTIONABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS TO THE AREA. SO WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS, WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION, BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO FEATURE A STRONG, PERSISTENT, AND
ELONGATED RIDGE COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES WITH THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AND TWO BOOKEND
TROUGHS (ONE OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE OTHER
ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA) DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL BIAS) FOR THE
ALY CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONSIST OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER, BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WE START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD
BRING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST CONTINUE TO HAVE THE GREATEST
FAVORABILITY OF GETTING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
CONTINUED ENSEMBLE AND NBM SUPPORT, HAVE MAINTAINED 30-40%
CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ALY CWA. AGAIN THIS
INCLUDES AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST.
RAINFALL COMES TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A
SPRAWLING 1024 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL YIELD A RETURN TO DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY, DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AROUND AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FORM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMING OUR NEXT RAIN MAKER IN THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. HEAVILY LEANING ON THE NBM AND ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT, HAVE INTRODUCED 30-40% CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR THE EXTENDED WILL AVERAGE OUT NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS
RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (COOLER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS). OVERALL, FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN HERE IN THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY....DURING THE DAY TODAY, CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER IN ELEVATION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
TO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE THE
SHOWERS ARRIVE BETWEEN 16Z-21Z. BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS COULD FALL
FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR EMBEDDED
THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER
21Z-22Z.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING
BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ROUGHLY BETWEEN 16Z-01Z. LATER
THIS EVENING/NIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND
50 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES
BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH IN WAKE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS,
SO DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAUSING
PONDING OF WATER IN FAVORED LOCATIONS (URBAN, LOW LYING AREAS).
THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF MAINLY AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED OR PROLONGED
DOWNPOURS.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...EVBUOMA
AVIATION...EVBUOMA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
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