690
FXUS61 KALY 221019
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL, CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY, ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
2) THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD
TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH A WARM FRONT POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF OUR REGION,
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST, ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 10-20
DEGREES SO THERE IS LIKELY MORE VIRGA THAN PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND AT THE MOMENT. AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS, MORE PRECIP SHOULD
REACH THE GROUND INTO THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE EXCEPT MORE NUMEROUS FROM AROUND KINGSTON SOUTH. PRECIP
COULD FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN
THE S. GREENS AND BERKSHIRES, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A COATING ON SOME GRASSY SURFACES. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DISSIPATES.
WITH THE WARM FRONT NOT ADVANCING NORTH THOUGH, WE WILL BE STUCK
IN A COOL/CLOUDY REGIME THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES EAST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY, AS A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OUR AREA SHOULD BE ALONG THE
NE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
POTENTIALLY KEEPING MUCH OF OUR AREA DRY, AS THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE MAY BE SOUTH/WEST. WILL STICK TO NBM POPS FOR
NOW WITH 25-35% FOR AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
< 15% NORTH/EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AS A SHIFT IN THE BLOCKING PATTERN COULD RESULT IN
THE TRACK OF THE WAVE SHIFTING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST,
WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 28-38% RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THESE VALUES LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG THRESHOLDS, BUT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED DEPENDING ON IF FUELS BECOME RECEPTIVE. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL TURN MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AS OF 6:20 AM EDT...MAINLY VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR STRATUS AROUND 2000 FT AT POU WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT NOT SEEING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITHIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, WE WILL SEE A TREND DOWN TO MAINLY
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT STALLS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF MVFR SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS TAF
ISSUANCE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS MORNING. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
MAINLY AROUND 10 KT FROM THE S/SE WITH GUST TO AROUND 20 KT.
TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BUT WINDS WEAKEN TO 5 KT OR LESS
AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04-06Z. THIS WILL
ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO LOWER, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL BE. SHOULD CIGS REMAIN BKN TO
OVC, WILL LIKELY SEE IFR STRATUS DEVELOP TONIGHT, BUT IF THERE ARE
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THEN WOULD EXPECT FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR TO LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT,
SO WILL NEED TO REFINE THE FORECAST WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35
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