334
FXUS61 KALY 311133
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS SNOW BAND FINALLY LIFTS NORTH, HAVE CANCELLED WINTER WEATHER
ADV FOR SCHOHARIE COUNTY, WHILE EXTENDING WINTER WEATHER ADV
UNTIL NOON FOR FULTON/MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. ALSO, DOWNGRADED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY WITH MAIN BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SW ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS SW ADIRONDACKS AND THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD WITH DECREASING INLAND EXTENT THURSDAY MORNING.
3. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL
TONIGHT, ALONG WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS LATER
TONIGHT ALONG SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND CURRENTLY SETTLING BACK SOUTHWARD NEAR/JUST
NORTH OF I-90 AND EXTENDING INTO CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. OCCASIONAL FLARE-UPS WITHIN THE BAND
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING ESTIMATED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HOUR,
ALTHOUGH LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST INTENSITY MAY BE WEAKENING AGAIN.
AS WINDS GRADUALLY BACK MORE INTO THE WEST, THE BAND SHOULD
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LIFT/SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK, EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN
EXTENT MAY STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH
MID MORNING, OCCASIONALLY EXTENDING EAST INTO
SARATOGA/WASHINGTON COUNTIES/WARREN COS AND SOUTHERN VT. BY
THIS AFTERNOON, THE BAND SHOULD MAINLY BE IN NORTHERN
HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS.
SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL VARY, BUT COULD STILL REACH UP TO 1"/HOUR
AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL HERKIMER CO,
AND UP TO AN INCH/HOUR FARTHER EAST INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY, AND
PERHAPS BRIEFLY 0.5-1"/HOUR AS FAR EAST AS
SARATOGA/WASHINGTON/SE WARREN COS AND SOUTHERN VT.
THE SNOWBAND MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME DISRUPTED THIS EVENING,
BEFORE RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW REDEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT AND
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
BURSTS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW TO NORTHERN HERKIMER/WESTERN
HAMILTON COUNTIES TONIGHT, SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE
COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS PRIMARILY FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF
3-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER/WESTERN HAMILTON
COUNTY THROUGH TODAY, THEN PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" TONIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED
MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ANOTHER 1-3" POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT. INCREASING MID LEVEL
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
REGION FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 7 AND 10
PM, WITH PERIODS OF SNOW THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT, STRONG
DYNAMICAL FORCING/F-GEN AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF AREAS OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOW AS THEY TRACK THROUGH.
AS FAR AS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, MANY AREAS LOOK TO
RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90, AS WELL AS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF NW CT, WESTERN MA AND SOUTHERN VT, WITH UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HOWEVER, LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SOUTHERN VT, WHERE POCKETS OF 3-6" COULD OCCUR.
FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED (EXCEPT HIGHER ACROSS NW CT, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
AREAS OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN SUCH COLD GROUND SURFACE TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO, AND
DURING THE SNOWFALL FOR TONIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT REGION, BRINGING LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO KALB AS THE BANDS STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
AT LEAST 13Z. LIGHT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE PAST 13Z, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT
ALREADY TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, LIGHT
SNOW MOVES THROUGH IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS
DEVELOPING FROM 06Z THROUGH 12Z BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE AND BREEZY AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038>040-
082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...05
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