374
FXUS61 KALY 210246
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 PM EST THU FEB 20 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 930 PM EST...RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STRETCH FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN GREENS AND
NORTHERN BERKS PER GOES NIGHTTIME IMAGERY. STILL AWAITING THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SO FAR ITS -4F AT INDIAN LAKE TO 25F AT
POUGHKEEPSIE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A CHILLY-COLD NIGHT.
PREV DISC, STILL SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES, MAINLY ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, ALTHOUGH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AS WELL. FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 800 FEET IN THESE AREAS,
INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION, MAINLY CLOUDS/VIRGA WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, TO THE 20S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS, EXCEPT
30-35 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. BRISK WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AT 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. SOME
SCATTERED DUSTINGS (PERHAPS UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH) WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST. OTHERWISE, AS LOW
AND MID LEVEL WINDS BEGIN VEERING SLIGHTLY WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE, EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO BECOME
CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST HERKIMER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY
SCHOHARIE COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS
NORTH OF I-90. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY BITTER COLD
TEMPS, GIVEN A COLD, DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, A DEEP SNOWPACK, AND
WINDS TRENDING TO CALM. HAVE UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH MAY NOT HAVE UNDERCUT ENOUGH, WITH
WIDESPREAD FORECAST MIN TEMPS OF -10 TO -20F EXPECTED,
INCLUDING WITHIN THE GLENS FALLS AREA, ASSUMING WINDS BECOME
CALM FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD. TEMPS COULD BE LOCALLY COLDER.
ELSEWHERE, STILL COLD, BUT WITHOUT THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE,
AND ALSO SLOWER DECREASE IN WIND MAGNITUDES AND CLOUDS, HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO NBM MINS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND
10 ABOVE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRIDAY, AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST, SOME
REMNANT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES COULD GRAZE PORTIONS OF
HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS. ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED, AND WITH A DEVELOPING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, LATE DAY
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AFTER THE COLD MORNING, WITH HIGHS
REACHING 30-35 IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST, WITH
MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY, GENERALLY DRY, ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION AND CONTINUED LOW/MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
DURING SATURDAY. IN FACT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH OF
SATURDAY COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN VT, WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION, AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE
DAY. OTHERWISE, CHILLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
BITTER AS TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS,
ALTHOUGH SOME MIN TEMPS BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE REGION. LATE DAY HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD REACH 40-45 IN
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST, WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY, SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED, WITH MILDER TEMPS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
TEENS NORTHERN AREAS, AND LOWER/MID 20S SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH 45-50, IF NOT WARMER, FOR THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH/EAST, AND 40-45 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS IN VT SHOULD REACH 35-40.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF
FEBRUARY. WHILE WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THANKS TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN CONUS, COLD AIR
IS ONCE AGAIN LACKING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON THURSDAY AS THAT MAY POSE OUR BEST POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT MAY LEAD TO ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW.
READ ON FOR DETAILS.
WE START THE PERIOD OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND PERSISTING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH DEEP, STREGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ADVECTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S TO EVEN NEAR 50 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. LATEST ECME AND GFSX MOS GUIDANCE BOTH POINT TO TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST OVER 50 AT MOST OF OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES (ALB, PSF,
POU, DDH). GIVEN THE MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, THE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE SO WE SHOWCASE MONDAY AS ONE OF THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE UPCOMING MILD STRETCH.
HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
SOME DIFFERENCE IN BOTH THE TRACK OF THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND ITS
STRENGTH. THE GFS AND CMC-NH SUGGEST THE SHORTWAVE IS MORE
AMPLIFIED, CLOSING OFF UP TO 700MB, AND THUS PRODUCING MUCH HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS AND TRACK THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER WEST UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THE ECWMF SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE WHICH RESULTS IN IT TRACKING IT FURTHER EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE
DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES, WE
CAPPED THE POPS AT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH
MILD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND NO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENT
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN.
WE SHOULD SEE A DRY BREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BRIEFLY ENSUES BEFORE THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AMPLIFIES AND DIGS INTO GULF COAST STATES. GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS THE OVERALL
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED (MAINLY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF). AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES, A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP
WITH IT TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRENGTHEN THIS DISTURBANCE MUCH TOO
QUICKLY, SHOWING IT CUTTING OFF UP TO 500MB BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE
THE CMC-NH KEEPS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NEUTRALLY TILTED AND THUS DOES
NOT DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW AT ALL. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS, IT STILL SHOWS A SIMILAR STORM EVOLUTION WITH
IT MATURING AND CUTTING OFF UP TO 500MB BY 18Z THURSDAY SO WE LEANED
OUR LATEST FORECAST CLOSER TO IT. WHILE COLD AIR IS ONCE AGAIN
LACKING, THE IMPRESSIVE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM BOTH THE ECWMF AND
GFS PRODUCES A DECENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SURFACE LOW
QUICKLY DEEPENING BELOW 990MB. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE WET-BULBING
PROCESSES LEAD TO HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
AS THE CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SYSTEM'S POTENT COLD FRONT ADVECTING IN A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH LAKE ONTARIO
STILL MILD/ABOVE FREEZING, WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS COULD TRANSITION
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AS STRATUS DECK SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH THOSE
WIND MAGNITUDES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VFR CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT
UPSTREAM APPROACHES. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
MAY BRING SCT-BKN DECK NORTH OF I90 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS AND FROM THE WESTERLY
DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS
ON OUR WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...SPECIALE
AVIATION...BGM/RATHBUN
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page