677
FXUS61 KALY 141858
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS INCREASED INTO WIDESPREAD CHANCE CATEGORY (25-35%) FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COASTAL LOW PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
AND EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION.
NBM/ENSEMBLE/MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC THERMAL PROFILE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER FOR THE MID WEEK FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SCENARIO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MTNS (SOUTHERN DACKS/SOUTHERN GREENS) WED-THU.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COASTAL LOW
MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS THAT MAY IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SOME SLICK ROADS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
2) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS (SNOW/RAIN) FROM THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE NEAR NY AND NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW,
BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY CLOSE TO
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS WITH WITH
SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK, LAKE GEORGE REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT EXPECT HIGHS TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S TO AROUND 30F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.
SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND ITS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE IS DRIVEN BY
CYCLONIC VORTICITY BUT A SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS MAY ACTUALLY
ALLOW THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE I-90
BASED ON THE 3-KM HRRR. THE 3-KM NAMNEST AND LATEST ECMWF FAVORS
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY AND CLOSER TO I-84. THE
MOISTURE FETCH IS LIMITED, AND WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
CHANCE RANGE FROM 25-35% FOR A COATING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH. THE SNOW COULD
IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. LOWS DUE
TO THE WET BULB COOLING FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S. SNOW TOTALS MAY HAVE TO BE UPDATED TO AN INCH OR TWO IN
SPOTS BASED ON THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE LATER. THE NBM 24-HR
PROBABILITIES ENDING 18Z/MON FOR 0.5" OF SNOW OR GREATER ARE IN
THE 30-50% RANGE FOR ULSTER/DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK FAIRLY MILD WITH FLATTER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY
YIELD SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
TEMPS BY TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER LOW AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
AN INFLUX OF MILDER AIR MAY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER TO UPPER 30S OVER THE MTNS. THESE TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 DEGREES OR SO.
IN THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
IMPACT THE REGION WED INTO FRI. THE ENSEMBLES AND DOMINATE
CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE SCENARIOS WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY AND PTYPE TO BE AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL
PROFILES. THE FIRST WAVE MOVING MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING A BOUT OF RAIN
AND SNOW BEFORE POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW LATE WED
NIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE NBM SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS
WED PM WITH SOME CATEGORICAL VALUES (75-80%) FOR THE WESTERN
DACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS, EXPECT A TRANSITION TO RAIN
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. SNOW ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT WITH THE WARMER TEMPS, BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IF
MODERATE AMOUNTS (>4") LOOK POSSIBLE, AS THE LATEST NBM HAS
24-HR PROBS ENDING 7 AM THU 25-35% OVER THE EASTERN DACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 40S.
THU-FRI...LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THU, BUT THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER PA OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER,
THOUGH PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN INTO DAY 6 OF THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER MORE PROLIFIC WAVE APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD
BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE REGION. RAIN AND SNOW LOOK
POSSIBLE AGAIN, WHILE WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A WINTRY MIX, BUT
FORECAST SUPPORTS RAIN AND SNOW AT THIS POINT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN TIMING
AND PTYPE WITH THE EXTENDED EVENTS IN DAYS 5 TO 7.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUN...A WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO MIXED MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS.
A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AT KALB/KPSF FOR THE NEXT 2 OR SO
HOURS BUT VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. KGFL/KPOU SHOULD
SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KALB SHOULD
SEE MVFR CIGS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TREND TO VFR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KPSF
MAY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-10 KT THEN BECOME VARIABLE OR NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT AROUND 5 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
RA...SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33
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