626
FXUS61 KALY 140247
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1047 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN SPRING-
LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1030 PM EDT, WHERE A SLIGHT BREEZE REMAINS IN PLACE (SUCH
AS IN ALBANY), TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILDER IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WHERE WINDS TURNED LIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOLED IN THE
LOW 30S AS DEW POINTS ARE QUITE LOW IN THE TEENS AND 20S. OUR CIRRUS
CANOPY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH 06-07 UTC
WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO TURN LIGHTER BY THIS TIME
WHICH WILL HELP LEAD TO CHILLY FRIDAY A.M TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH
WILL SUPPORT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A DIGGING TROUGH AT 500 HPA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
50S TO LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SATURDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40-70% CHANCE) OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
MAIN LOW WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, THE STORM'S COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND STRONG FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE MORNING MAY
START OFF DRY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STEADY PRECIP BY
LATER IN THE DAY, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUING FOR SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES APPEAR TO
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE, SO THERE SHOULD BE PRECIP SHUTTING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR RECORD IVT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SURFACE CYCLONE
IS CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN PWAT VALUES INCREASING OVER 1" ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST WITH PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
EXCEEDING 1.25". THESE VALUES APPROACH OR EXCEED THE MEAN
MAXIMUM OF PWAT IN THE KALB SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE
OF MARCH. WHILE THIS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT WILL SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEING LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MITIGATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH
FLOODING. THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW A 40%-60% CHANCE OF 1.00
INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THERE IS ONLY A 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF 2.00 INCHES, WITH
AGAIN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. WPC HAS
THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MORE LIKELY THREAT (ALTHOUGH STILL LOW)
WILL BE RIVER FLOODING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM
SNOWMELT AND THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS THREAT.
A RIDGE AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S SYSTEM AND
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00
UTC. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS POU AND PSF WHERE A LOW STRATUS DECK
MAY ADVECT INLAND BETWEEN 09 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING RESULTING
IN MVFR CIGS. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, ONLY INCLUDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP. OF THE TWO SITES, SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR THE LOW
STRATUS TO REACH POU COMPARED TO PSF.
WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 03 UTC TONIGHT. THEN, LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 - 7 KT EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGE:
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF MINOR RIVER FLOODING IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY NEXT
WEEK
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 1 INCH ARE GENERALLY
40-60% ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING 8 AM
MONDAY, WITH HIGHEST PROBS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS
OF NW CT. IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, MILD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RIPEN THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS STARTING FRIDAY.
NOHRSC SHOWS 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SWE IN THE SNOW PACK IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
ALL OF THIS WILL MELT OUT WITH THIS EVENT. STILL, THE
COMBINATION OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MELT PLUS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL LEAD TO RIVER RISES. HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE RIVERS AND STREAMS
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY REACHING
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHEAST
RIVER FORECAST CENTER HAS EVEN HIGHLIGHTED OUR HYDRO SERVICE
AREA MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 IN ITS "ABOVE" FLOOD RISK STAGE
THROUGH MARCH 20 ON ITS WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
PRODUCT. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE EVENTS, THE MAIN AREAS OF
UNCERTAINTY ARE (1) HOW MUCH OF THE EXISTING SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT (SWE) WILL MELT OUT AND (2) HOW MUCH TOTAL RAIN WILL
FALL (QPF) AND OVER WHAT DURATION. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THE RIVER RISES/POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING FROM
THIS EVENT WITH RIVERS LIKELY CRESTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TH/KL
NEAR TERM...TH/SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SPECIALE
HYDROLOGY...KL/SPECIALE
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