004
FXUS61 KALY 170721
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOW GREATER COVERAGE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX (AND EVEN ALL SNOW IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATION AREAS) FOR ELEVATIONS AT AND ABOVE 1500 FEET
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS, TACONICS, HELDERBERGS,
AND NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN
PERSISTENT PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.1" OF SNOW RANGING 30 TO
60% DURING THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING 2AM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AFTER A STRETCH OF SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR STRING OF BACK-TO-BACK UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS COMES TO AN
END TODAY AS OUR PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING A DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MASS
INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE INCOMING 500HPA COLD
POOL LOOKS TO STEEPEN 700 - 500HPA LAPSE RATES TO 6.5 - 7C/KM
MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY. ONCE WE HIT OUR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BY LATE MORNING, CAMS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS
LINGERING DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND INSOLATION GENERATES 500 -
1000J/KG OF SB CAPE. CAMS ALSO INDICATE STORMS MAY FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE BERKSHIRES, TACONICS AND IN THE LITCHFIELD HILL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR QUICKLY WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED TO A WEAK SFC PRESSURE
TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL. HOWEVER, GIVEN WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ARE BELOW 10KFT, CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL SHOULD
A STRONG STORM DEVELOP. SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AFTER A PLEASANT YET BREEZY SATURDAY, A BROAD AND RATHER
AMPLIFIED TROUGH GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A SFC LOW NEAR THE HUDSON BAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT KEEP US MILD
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MOISTURE PLUME DIRECTED OUT OF THE GULF
AND HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTING IN A SECONDARY SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
MORNING, A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY ADVECT
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE THAT THE SECONDARY LOW ALLOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS
SUNDAY A.M BEFORE THE BULK OF THE STRATIFORM SLOWLY PRESSES
EAST SUNDAY P.M. LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.20"
OF RAIN EAST OF THE HUDSON INTO SUNDAY P.M SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AND KEEP STRATIFORM RAIN LINGERING MOST OF
THE DAY. THEREFORE, WE SHOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO MEANS THERE IS A LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS TO SEE RAIN MIX WITH SNOW SUNDAY P.M BEFORE THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP FINALLY EXITS SUNDAY EVE. THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S
WITH LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND STRATIFORM RAIN. WHILE
NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A 25 TO 50% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 0.5" OF SNOW IN ELEVATION AT AND ABOVE 1500FT DURING THE
24-HR PERIOD ENDING 2AM MONDAY, ANY WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO COOLER AND ELEVATED SURFACE PREVENTING
TRAVEL IMPACTS. SHOULD THE FRONT SLOW DOWN FURTHER THAN CURRENT
EXPECTATION, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAY
TREND UPWARDS BUT IMPACTS REMAIN UNLIKELY GIVEN TIME OF YEAR.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERTURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT TO DROP
NEAR/BELOW FREEZING AND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT. IMPACTFUL WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO BEING VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING EAST OF THE TAF SITES,
BUT SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY AND LITTLE IMPACT ON VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST AROUND 15-25
KFT WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
TOWARDS DAYBREAK, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AS A RESULT,
SOME LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS WILL START TO DEVELOP FOR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY START AS EARLY AS 08Z, BUT
WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE 10Z-12Z TIME PERIOD. ONCE THESE
CLOUDS FORM, THEY WILL LIKELY BE MVFR CIGS AROUND 1000-2000 FT
FOR KALB, KGFL AND KPSF. IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUGGEST LOW-END MVFR FOR THESE
SITES, SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS FOR NOW. MEANWHILE, KPOU WILL
SEE SOME CLOUDS LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT GETS THERE,
BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR THERE.
THESE LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FOR THESE SITES TOWARDS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, BKN CIGS (MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE) WILL CONTINUE FOR KPOU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...27
CLIMATE...07
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