893  
FXUS61 KALY 181041  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CHILLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL. WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S FROST WILL OCCUR  
TONIGHT, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM  
NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE BACK TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD  
FRONT ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE  
BOUNDARY WILL DECREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALOFT THE REGION WILL  
REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID  
60S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE 50S ABOVE; AROUND 10 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER,  
HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM  
SATURDAY. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY  
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.  
 
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT,  
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION, MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY,  
HELDERBERGS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELD  
HILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM SATURDAY. FROST  
IS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.  
 
A CENTER OF A STRONG AND SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY  
AND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE UNITED  
STATES/CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW  
OF COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S BOTH SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY NIGHTS WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES  
AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE  
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST, SO ADDITIONAL FROST  
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS MAY OR MAY  
NOT NEEDED. IF LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE FREEZE WARNING ARE  
ACHIEVED THEN THE GROWING SEASON WILL COME TO AN END AND  
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL NOT BE NEEDED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON MONDAY WITH A 1030+ MB ANTICYCLONE  
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION. AFTER A CHILLY START WITH SOME  
ADDITIONAL FROST, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH ABUNDANT  
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. IT WILL STILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL, ALTHOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE IT WON'T FEEL SO COOL  
BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL/CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT, AS  
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS SOUTHWEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ONCE  
AGAIN THERE COULD BE FROST IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WEST/EAST OF THE  
HUDSON VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON MAY HAVE ENDED BY THEN  
ACROSS AT LEAST SOME ZONES.  
 
MORE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY, AS A NORTHWEST FLOW  
REGIME DEVELOPS AS OUR AREA WILL BE WELL WEST OF TC TEDDY, WHICH IS  
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NOVA SCOTIA. SO WE WILL HAVE GOOD SUBSIDENCE  
WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST BREEZE DEVELOPING. TEMPS SHOULD BE  
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH HIGH REACHING THE MID/UPPER  
60S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY, WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES ARE  
FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, SO WILL GOOD MIXING VALLEYS  
MAY SEE TEMPS EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL  
DAYS.  
 
ON THURSDAY IT LOOKS LIKELY WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME  
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING  
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE  
GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST AGREEMENT SHOWING A FAIRLY  
STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN THE LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.  
WILL START TO MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM THURSDAY INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH  
BREAKS ARE STARTING TO OCCUR FROM KGFL-KALB AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO  
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. CIGS AT KPOU/KPSF ARE IN MVFR RANGE EARLY  
THIS MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM  
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.  
 
SKIES SHOULD BECOME SKC BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS  
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS TONIGHT WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY, WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-7 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
CHILLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH FROST OCCURRING TONIGHT,  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 35 TO 45  
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE 30S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  
AFTERNOONS.  
 
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20S  
TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
BUT LIGHTER AT 10 MPH OR LESS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE USGS  
INDICATES STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IS BELOW NORMAL  
WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE NEAR NORMAL  
CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
HERE IS A LOOK AT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION HAD OCCURRED SO FAR  
THIS MONTH AT OUR CLIMATE SITES AND THE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION  
AND ITS DEPARTURE.  
 
ALBANY NY:  
SEPTEMBER: 0.50 INCHES  
2020: 24.41 INCHES (-3.49 INCHES)  
 
GLENS FALLS NY:  
SEPTEMBER: 0.28 INCHES  
2020: 24.35 INCHES (-3.26 INCHES)  
 
POUGHKEEPSIE NY:  
SEPTEMBER: 0.74 INCHES  
2020: 20.58 INCHES (-12.57 INCHES)  
 
BENNINGTON VT:  
SEPTEMBER: 2.06 INCHES  
2020: 25.34 INCHES (-4.06 INCHES)  
 
PITTSFIELD MA:  
SEPTEMBER: 0.95 INCHES  
2020: 23.71 INCHES (-8.11 INCHES)  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
CTZ001.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063-082>084.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
NYZ032-033-042.  
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
MAZ001-025.  
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
VTZ013>015.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...IAA  
NEAR TERM...IAA  
SHORT TERM...IAA  
LONG TERM...JPV  
AVIATION...JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...IAA  
HYDROLOGY...IAA  
CLIMATE...  
 
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