733
FXUS61 KALY 190613
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION AND TO BETTER
REPRESENT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS
WELL OFF SHORE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK SUPPORTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND MAINLY
SUNNY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE AS WELL. DAYTIME
HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
TO MID 60S AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING MOST NIGHTS
SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CONSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 30 TO 45% EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN WEAK GENERALLY UNDER
5KTS, NORTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW BECOME A BIT BREEZY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO OUR NORTH AND A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPING WELL OFF SHORE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
WINDS RANGING 5-10KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS, STRONGEST DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS IN THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED HUDSON VALLEY.
DESPITE WINDS BECOMING STRONGER, RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS.
LATEST ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER POSITIONED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OFF
THE MID-ATLANATIC/CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF
THE WEEK. AS IT SLOWLY EXITS FURTHER OUT OF SEA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, THERE IS ENOUGH ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO SUGGEST THAT IT
TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS. THE
LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM SHOW A 25 TO 50%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 25MPH IN THE 24HR PERIOD BETWEEN
2AM THURS AND 2AM FRI WITH UP TO A 50 - 75% CHANCE IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT. HOWEVER, THE
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 30MPH IS LOWER MAINLY UNDER 30%.
THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS TO KEEP THE NOR'EASTER FAR ENOUGH
OFF SHORE TO PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING EASTERN NY/WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS A 40% CHANCE
FOR THIS TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT EXITS OUT TO SEA
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN HOW FAR
OUT TO SEA IT IS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD, FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
INTERMITTENTMVFR AND EVEN IFR VIS AT KGFL FROM 07 - 12 UTC.
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO MESSAGE THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES
COOL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THEIR RESPECTIVE DEW POINTS AT PSF AND POU
THAT WE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VIS FROM FOG FROM 08 -
12 UTC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD
PREVENT IFR CONDITIONS. CALM WINDS THROUGH 14 UTC SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 3 - 5KTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page