764  
FXUS61 KALY 260627  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
227 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WITH  
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOT AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH  
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY.  
 
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MEDIUM  
CHANCE (30%-60%) OF FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER 95 ON MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY.  
 
AS OF 225 AM EDT, PATCHY CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM  
NE TO SW ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS, WITH MAINLY  
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG WAS FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SKIES  
REMAIN CLEAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NEARING ZERO. CURRENT  
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS  
AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH 60S  
TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.  
 
WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS  
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO  
LOWER 60S BY AFTERNOON. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO  
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND  
MOHAWK VALLEY REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK, AND WITH SOME WEAK  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO 0 TO -2C  
ALONG WITH PWAT'S INCREASING TO NEARLY 2", LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AND PERHAPS SPREADING  
EAST INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AROUND DAYBREAK.  
 
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY  
MORNING FOR MANY AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90, WITH A  
GRADUAL EXPANSION SOUTH AND EAST BY MID MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN ATTRIBUTE WITH RAINFALL RATES  
POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1"/HOUR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL  
TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF HEAVIER RAIN CORES WHICH COULD  
LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN SOME URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AND  
PERHAPS ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN ANY AREAS WHERE REPEATED  
DOWNPOURS OCCUR.  
 
MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, REMNANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING  
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW COULD ALLOW  
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON  
SHOULD SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, BEST  
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF  
I-90 AND PRIMARILY WEST OF I-87. SHOULD CONVECTION REDEVELOP,  
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH VEERING WIND PROFILE FOR SOME  
DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP. ALSO, HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT  
SHOULD ANY ADDITIONAL TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CELLS OCCUR.  
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,  
WARMEST IN ANY AREAS WHERE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE DEVELOPS.  
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,  
WITH NBM PROBS FOR MAXT>95 10-30% WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY  
(GREATEST ACROSS MID HUDSON VALLEY ON TUESDAY), AND PROBS FOR  
DEWPOINTS >72 30-60%+ EACH AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) FOR  
HEAT INDICES REACHING 95+ WITHIN LARGE PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON  
AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS EACH DAY, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES  
POTENTIALLY BEING ISSUED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. A WEAK COLD  
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD BRING  
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY-  
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY FAIR WEATHER BY FRIDAY. IT WILL ALSO  
BECOME COOLER AND LESS HUMID BY FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE  
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME 40S  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z/SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE  
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE FOR ANY PATCHY FOG UNTIL  
12Z/SAT AT KGFL/KPSF WHERE SOME INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR VSBYS COULD  
OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TAF  
SITES NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/SUN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
AND WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT  
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AT 4-8 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...TH/KL  
DISCUSSION...KL  
AVIATION...RATHBUN  
 
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