419
FXUS61 KALY 042257
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
557 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS FORECAST ITERATION.
AS IN PREVIOUS, WE CONTINUED TO BLEND THE NBM WITH ITS 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR WINDS AND WIND GUSTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO THE TENDENCY OF THE NBM ALONE TO UNDER-FORECAST
THEM WITHOUT SUFFICIENT INCORPORATION OF LOCAL TERRAIN
INFLUENCE. LIKEWISE, WE ALSO CONTINUED TO BLEND NBM WITH ITS
25TH PERCENTILE FOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD TO
CAPTURE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE COLD WHICH WILL ALSO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED BY TERRAIN AND LOCALIZED RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESSES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY
TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, UPPER-
HUDSON VALLEY, AND NORTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE SHOULD PROPER PRECAUTIONS NOT BE TAKEN TO LIMIT
EXPOSURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
BE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS A RESULT OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL BECOME
POSITIONED NEAR THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY AREA, EXTENDING A
NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. JUST AHEAD OF THIS MAIN AXIS, A SECONDARY, WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE REGION, LIKELY ACTING JUST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO ITS OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING. THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE CONTINUES TO BE ALLOCATED TO THE LOCATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST AHEAD
OF OR ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, ALSO LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY
AREA. WITH THIS BEING A RELATIVELY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM
ALREADY, THAT INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT LIFT
WOULD CERTAINLY HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AND AT LEAST ALLOW
SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING
WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DUE TO EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND. MOST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND SINKING FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT IT DOES EXTEND INTO OUR CWA.
DIRECTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE COMES THE SECOND,
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS IT ROTATES THROUGH OUR
REGION. UNLIKE IN PREVIOUS ITERATIONS, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT NO LONGER LOOKS TO UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS A RESPONSE TO THIS DEEPENING ALOFT,
BUT RATHER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, DEEPER IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. TIMING OF THIS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NOW ALSO DOESN'T
LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. STILL, MILDLY MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FORCE THE PERSISTENCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN COURTESY OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW. ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THAT OF THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT, ALLOWING WINDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
DEEPENING LOW OFF THE COAST AND A BUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST WILL
INTERSECT AN AREA OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SQUALLS DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS NOT
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS DETAIL OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PART OF THE UNCERTAINTY RELATES TO THE LACK OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY THAT IS BEING INDICATED BY THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COMPLETELY SCOURING
OUT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
RANGE FROM ~0.5" TO 1.5" WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
THEREFORE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT AND THEREFORE CAUTION SHOULD BE
TAKEN WHEN GOING ABOUT ANY WEEKEND ACTIVITIES SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS UNWAVERINGLY HIGH IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS CONSUMING EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT MIXING INTO
ANOMALOUSLY COLD (NEARLY 2-3 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL) LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL, IN AND OF THEMSELVES, BE BRUTALLY COLD.
BUT THIS SAME MIXING INTO A 30-40KT LLJ AT 925 HPA IN ADDITION
TO THE CYCLOGENESIS OF THE CLIPPER LOW AND BUILDING HIGH TO THE
WEST SIGNIFICANTLY STEEPENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
REGION, WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY WINDS, THEREFORE MAKING ALREADY
COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL BONE- CHILLING.
THE PROBABILITIES DISCUSSED IN DAYS PREVIOUS HAVEN'T CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY, OWING TO THE CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NOT
ONLY THE EXTENT BUT THE OCCURRENCE OF THE COLD. AS WITH THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE, THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO OCCURR
EARLY TO MID-MORNING SATURDAY, WHICH GREATLY REDUCES THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FRIDAY NIGHT'S TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TAPPING INTO THE "DANGEROUS" CATEGORY. HOWEVER, SATURDAY,
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE THE THREE COLDEST PERIODS
OF THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND THEREFORE HAVE THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF EVENTUAL EXTREME COLD WATCHES/WARNINGS AND/OR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES. THAT SAID, MONDAY NIGHT, TOO, COULD ALSO BE
RATHER COLD, THOUGH WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECLINE, IT IS
LESS LIKELY THAT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES, IF ANY ARE NEEDED,
WOULD BE WIDESPREAD. THE LATEST NBM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE QMD
PROBABILITIES FOR SUBZERO AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND RANGE FROM ~50-100% SATURDAY
NIGHT; ~30-100% SUNDAY NIGHT; AND ~10-70% MONDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST LREF PROBABILITIES FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILL
VALUES/"FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) LESS THAN -10 RANGE FROM
~20-90% SATURDAY DURING THE DAY; ~80-100% SATURDAY NIGHT;
~40-90% SUNDAY NIGHT; AND ~20-60% MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THIS OUTBREAK WILL DEFINITELY BE SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 10S TO
MID 30S. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR WITHIN
30 MINUTES OF EXPOSURE TO SUCH CONDITIONS IF PROPER ATTIRE ARE
NOT WORN. ADDITIONALLY, DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE CAN ALSO OCCUR
IF PROPER CARE TO HEATING SYSTEMS ARE NOT TAKEN. PLEASE BE SURE
TO TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO BE SAFE AMID THIS OUTBREAK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. FEW-SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DRIFT THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THIS
EVENING, BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...07
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