674
FXUS61 KALY 211904
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO RETURN FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED, TODAY SEPTEMBER 21ST, FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, PLEASE VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/ALY/ALY_FROST_FREEZE_FALL2026.PDF OR
WEATHER.GOV/ALY AND CLICK THE FIRST HEADLINE CALLED FALL 2026
FROST FREEZE PROGRAM.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COULD OBSERVE THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 30S (HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS) TO THE MID
40S (RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS). THESE LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY RANGE IN THE 50S
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN THE MID-60S IN THE VALLEYS. THIS
IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW
METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW: LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE WEEKEND COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT THEY ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. NOW, THERE ARE MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS THAT COULD OCCUR WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
THE LOW. THE MOST SUPPORTED SCENARIO BY THE LATEST FORECAST IS
FOR LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE LOW STAYS WEST, BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO
BRING THESE LOW CHANCES AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE SURFACE
LOW COULD MEANDER JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST,
BRINGING THESE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND. THE SECOND SCENARIO IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STAYS
WELL OUT TO SEA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THE THIRD
SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW REMAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOP AND MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
THE KEY TAKEAWAY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS THAT FOR THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES,
LITCHFIELD HILLS, WIND GUSTS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25
AND 40 MPH. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
IMPACT: BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ALBANY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,
TACONICS, LITCHFIELD HILLS, AND BERKSHIRES, COULD KNOCK OVER AND
MOVE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD. SOME DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE ALSO IN PLACE
AT GFL AND ALB WITH CIGS AROUND 3500-4000FT WHICH WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS (CIGS NEAR OR GREATER THAN 15KFT)
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING IN THE 3.5-4 KFT
AGL RANGE BY 06 - 08 UTC BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 14-16 UTC. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND RANGE 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT THROUGH
SUNSET. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 5KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...31
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