322
FXUS61 KALY 190541
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY INTO
TOMORROW WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. SOME RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1240 AM EST...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IT WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE JERSEY SHORE BY DAYBREAK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. MRMS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH, BUT
RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS SUGGEST ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WILL
EXPECT BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES EARLIER LAST EVENING
AND LITTLE WIND, TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH SOME TEENS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BE A
CHILLY, BUT DRY START TO THE DAY TODAY.
AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FOR LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH
FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THANKS
TO THE CHILLY START, TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY,
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LOWER
END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S FOR MINS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN. SOME CLOUDS
WILL START TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT IT LOOKS DRY FOR
MOST AREAS, WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY, AS BOTH A
NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING EXACT QPF, WHICH
WILL DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM,
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL AND MORE QPF. FOR NOW, HAVE MAINLY
CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE 40S. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS TO WARM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING, SO ANY SNOW
OR WINTRY MIX LOOKS VERY BRIEF (IF AT ALL) AND LIMITED TO JUST
NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON FRIDAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST NBM LOADED
IN SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE IN CASE SOME
SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT CAN DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM, BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AND TEMPS LOOKS VERY
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH THIS STORM TRACK, MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN (SOME BRIEF MIX CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT
THE ONSET), AND THE LATEST NBM P-TYPE PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH
THIS IDEA, AS THE WELL AS RECENT RUNS OF THE GEFS PLUMES AS
WELL. LOOKING EVEN FURTHER AHEAD, SOME COLDER AIR MAY START
MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY, BUT THE
EXACT START OF WHEN THIS OCCURS IS STILL UP IN THE AIR.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WE START THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLYING CONDITION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, SHALLOW PATCHY FOG COULD STILL DEVELOP AT KGFL AND KALB SO
CONTINUED MENTION OF THIS OCCURRENCE IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO INCLUDED IN TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THE SHALLOW PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF KPOU IS TRENDING
TO KEEP SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z SO VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR KPOU. CALM WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...05
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