990
FXUS61 KALY 042332
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
UPDATE
AS OF 630 PM EST, MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND FAR SW
HERKIMER EXTENDING INTO VALLEY AREAS OF GREENE/COLUMBIA
COUNTIES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. THESE BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE PIVOTING
SOUTHWARD AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS MORE RAPIDLY.
ALSO, HAVE DECREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SW ADIRONDACKS PER LATEST NYS MESONET OBS, WHICH ARE RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER ("WARMER") WIND CHILLS IN THIS AREA THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, STILL BREEZY/WINDY WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
SYNOPSIS
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT, VERY COLD TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MAY BRING A FEW ROUNDS
OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES FROM DOWNING TREES AND WIRES.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT DIMINISHING WIND GUSTS WILL LARGELY
KEEP FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION:
THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS UNDERWAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION. A COUPLE OF
SNOW SQUALLS HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT ALONG/NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR OVER THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS, BUT A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN LATEST RADAR
SCANS AND FEW SIMILAR OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM INDICATE THAT THE
WINDOW FOR SQUALL ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY CLOSING. IN FACT, SPC
MESOANALYSIS SUPPORTS THIS THINKING WITH THE INDICATION OF THE
GREATEST MOISTURE INTERSECTING THE DGZ AND THE GREATEST 925 MB
FGEN AS BEING POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT LOCATION OF
THE FRONT WHICH CAN NOW BE BEAUTIFULLY SEEN VIA VISIBLE
SATELLITE AS A BOUNDARY OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SLIDING
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND BERKSHIRES.
GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
WHERE RAPID DYNAMIC COOLING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRENGTHENING
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. DEEP MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES AS WELL AS WITHIN
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION WILL FAVOR CHANNELING. WIND GUST MAGNITUDES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REACH AROUND 30 TO NEARLY 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, SO WE ONCE AGAIN HELD OFF ON ANY
SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORIES. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE TO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT
REDUCED VISIBILITY WITHIN ANY LASTING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID, ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES RESULTING FROM DOWNED
TREES AND WIRES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY AS STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION DRIVES LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN
CATSKILLS, AND EVEN AS FAR AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE COMMON IN THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS, AND ANY OTHER AREAS THAT
RECEIVE A PASSING SHOWER, WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, RANGING
FROM ABOUT 1-3" IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS TO A COUPLE TENTHS
TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE SWIFTLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
WILL SWIFTLY BRING AN END TO ANY SHOWERS BY TONIGHT. DECREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL THEN PAIR WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
FRESH SNOWPACK TO DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TO THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS
SEASON. THAT SAID, LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDELY IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
WHERE VALUES RANGING FROM -6 TO -15 WILL BE COMMON. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ALSO BRING A RAPID DECLINE
IN WIND SPEEDS SO THESE COLD LOWS WILL NOT FEEL MUCH WORSE DUE
TO WIND CHILLS. AND, IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS, HAVE
HELD OFF ON ANY COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES DUE TO CONFIDENCE IN
REMAINING ABOVE CRITERIA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOWS FOR
DECEMBER 5TH. IN FACT, ALL CLIMATE SITES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BEAT THE RECORD LOW EXCEPT FOR KGFL WHO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO TIE THE EXISTING RECORD. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TOMORROW, DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, BUT AS WILL THE COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REBOUND INTO THE TENS AND 20S TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL FEEL BALMY IN COMPARISON TO TONIGHT'S, AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL MITIGATE REACHING THE FULL POTENTIAL OF RADIATIVE COOLING.
VALUES WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND 10S TO LOW
20S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY, AT LEAST MUCH OF THE DAY, WILL ALSO
REMAIN DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE
EAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH VALUES ANTICIPATED TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S, BUT THESE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE HUDSON BAY EXTENDS A SERIES OF FRONTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THIS IS A FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE, MOST OF THE
RESULTING SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90 WHERE LAKE ADJACENCY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
REQUISITE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING TO GENERATE AND
MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE VERY MINIMAL. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE TENS TO LOW 20S. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY
SUNDAY, FORCING THE RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE ALTERNATING TREND OF
TRANQUIL AND DISTURBED CONDITIONS WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS. THE FIRST COMES SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DRIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS PROBABLY
GOING TO BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SOME OF THE LATEST MEDIUM- RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL, THOUGH LOW, FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL (>4") ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA. WHILE NBM PROBABILITIES ARE LOW
(10-20%) CONCERNING THIS, IT CERTAINLY ISN'T OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY SHOULD A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BENEATH
THE SHORTWAVE TAKE ON A COASTAL COMPONENT LIKE THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE. BUT THIS IS ALSO A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, SO THAT
COULD POSE A HINDRANCE IN ACCUMULATING MODERATE SNOWFALL
TOTALS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY, FORCING THE RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF THE RESULT OF THE SYSTEM OF THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT. BUT ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PUT AN END
TO TRANQUILITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
VAST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE REALLY PUNTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOMETHING TO IMPACT OUR AREA TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. LIKEWISE, DESPITE A LITTLE BIT MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY, THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE'S ACTUALLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THERE IS FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE WITH THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS OUTLINED FOR 30-40% LIKELIHOOD. WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, BUT WILL KEEP THE LONG TERM FOCUS ON
THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS HAS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF LEAD
TIME AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY DECEMBER
STANDARDS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 10S AND
20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MODERATING TO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL START COLD WITH VALUES SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO 10S AND MONDAY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE
DIGITS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MODERATION
TO THE 10S AND 20S.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY, A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
PASS THROUGH KALB, KPSF AND KPOU THROUGH AROUND 02Z/FRI, WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CIGS DROPPING TO 4000-6000 FT AGL AT
KPOU AFTER 20Z/FRI.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT THIS
EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KT BY MIDNIGHT, AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOWS FOR DECEMBER 5TH:
SITE: RECORD LOW (YEAR) FORECAST LOW TONIGHT
KGFL -6F (1989) -6F
KALB 2F (1989) 0F
KPOU 7F (1966, 1989) 4F
KPSF 0F (1926) -5F
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
UPDATE...24
SYNOPSIS...24/37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...07/37
AVIATION...24/33
CLIMATE...35
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