145
FXUS61 KALY 010600
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN EASTWARD-PROGRESSING
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH NOW
APPEARS TO POTENTIALLY SPLIT INTO NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
WHICH DON'T LOOK TO PHASE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT THE TRACK
OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS LOWERED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
2) THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL. THOSE AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THOSE THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PORTRAY THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF A
LARGE-SCALE, MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL, NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THAT COULD BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE VARIATION WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS OF THE PROJECTED SOLUTIONS ERRS TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM AND THE SUBSEQUENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NOT
ONLY THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF RAIN THAT WE WILL RECEIVE, BUT THE
AMOUNTS.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON'S UPDATE, ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE PRIMARY, MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS TOMORROW
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SHORT- TO MEDIUM- RANGE, DETERMINISTIC
MODELS TAKE THINGS A STEP FURTHER AND INDICATE A DEEPENING TO
THE POINT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- LEVEL, CLOSED LOW IN THE
THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN TOMORROW NIGHT, A SECONDARY PIECE
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM THE PRIMARY
TROUGH DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE AND STALL OF THE CLOSED LOW. THESE
TWO TROUGHS LARGELY DON'T APPEAR TO PHASE AS THEY CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. BUT, IN THE OUTLYING SCENARIO
WHERE THEY DO, WE NOW HAVE THREE SCENARIOS THAT LOOK TO OCCUR:
SCENARIO 1: LET THIS BE THE FAVORED SCENARIO WHEREIN THE TWO
TROUGHS DO NOT PHASE AND THERE ARE ULTIMATELY SPLIT AXES OF
RAINFALL. IN THIS CASE, AN INITIAL FLUID MOISTURE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, DRIVING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THEN, AS THE
TWO TROUGHS BEGIN TO SEPARATE, THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES SPLIT
BETWEEN AND NORTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT, BRINGING
A BREAK IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. ULTIMATELY, A PRIMARY MOISTURE
AXIS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF ALONG THE
EAST COAST, WILL LARGELY BYPASS US TO THE SOUTH, BUT ALLOW
SHOWERS TO MOVE BACK INTO AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE SECONDARY MOISTURE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A PSEUDO- STATIONARY BOUNDARY, ENHANCING LOW- LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
WILL THEREFORE OCCUR FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A SURFACE WAVE GLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW POTENTIALLY
ENHANCED RAINFALL TO ENCROACH ON THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THIS
WOULD PRIMARILY DRIVE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND.
SCENARIO 2: LET THIS BE THE SCENARIO WHEREIN THE TWO TROUGHS DO
NOT PHASE, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE STAYS TO OUR
SOUTH. IN THIS CASE, THE MOISTURE AXIS WOULD AGAIN BE SPLIT AS
IN THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO, BUT THIS TIME, RAINFALL REMAINS
LIGHTER GIVEN THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE PASSING BY TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WOULD ULTIMATELY GIVE US LIGHTER RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND MAKE FOR VERY FEW, IF ANY, FLOODING CONCERNS.
SCENARIO 3: LET THIS BE THE OUTLYING SCENARIO WHEREIN THE TWO
TROUGHS PHASE. IN THIS CASE, A FLUID MOISTURE AXIS WILL ALIGN
FROM THE GULF INTO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A PSEUDO-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP WITHIN OUR
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD ULTIMATELY GIVE US THE MOST QPF, BUT HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF SUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL
ORIENTATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS. AT THIS TIME, THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS TO DRIVE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE
CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP.
THEY KEY TAKE AWAY HERE IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY HOW MUCH AND WHERE THOSE AMOUNTS WILL
FALL. THESE DETAILS WILL ULTIMATELY DIRECTLY IMPACT THE OVERALL
CONCERN AND LOCATIONS FOR CONCERN OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER THIS WEEK'S HISTORIC RAINFALL, SOILS ARE, TO NO SURPRISE,
OVERLY SATURATED. IN FACT, ACCORDING TO THE NYS MESONET SOIL
MOISTURE ANALYSIS, OVER HALF OF OUR CWA IS AT 50-75%, IF NOT
GREATER, MOISTURE CAPACITY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAEFS, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1.5-1.75 BY MONDAY WHICH IS 2 STDEVS ABOVE
NORMAL. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FIRST AND THIRD SCENARIOS, THERE
IS DEFINITELY POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND, IN PARTICULAR, TO PLACES THAT SAW HEAVY
RAINFALL PREVIOUSLY THIS WEEK. THEREFORE, ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
EVEN SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLE. HOWEVER, AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED, IT IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
ULTIMATE SET UP OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY, ENSEMBLES ARE
PROJECTING ABOUT A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAINFALL
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST 1 HR FFG INDICATES MOST
OF OUR AREA ONLY NEEDS 1-2" (IF NOT LESS) FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. WHAT WILL HELP IS TWO FAIRLY DRY DAYS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY AND REMAIN VIGILANT OF ANY FLOODING CONCERNS
GIVEN THE LATEST EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG TO FORM ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KGFL STARTS OFF THIS PERIOD WITH LIFR VIS, WHILE
KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z.
THE GREATEST VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL AND KPSF, WHILE
KPOU WILL TRANSITION TO PREVAILING LIFR AND KALB SEES ONLY TEMPORARY
IFR VIS/CIGS THROUGH 11Z.
THIS MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, RETURNING ALL
TERMINALS TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL
IN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
BY THE AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/05
AVIATION...23
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