622
FXUS61 KALY 021047
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED THE TREND OF ADDING FROST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE STARTED THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON.
INCREASED WINDS FOR TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST CAN DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
HAS BEGUN.
2) A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, SUCH AS
FIRE SPREAD, COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEW YORK.
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ARE GOING
TO HELP LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS REGIONS AS A
LIGHT BREEZE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH IS IN STORE. FOR THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION, WHICH INCLUDES GLENS FALLS AND WHITEHALL,
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. HOWEVER, A FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE THAT
CONTRIBUTES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST. THE FIRST SCENARIO,
WHICH IS NOT FAVORED BY THE LATEST FORECAST, IS IF CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST AND THICK, THEN FROST IS UNLIKELY TO
DEVELOP. THE SECOND SCENARIO, WHICH IS FAVORED BY THE LATEST
FORECAST, IS IF THE SKY CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLOUDS
ARE THIN, THEN FROST WILL DEVELOP. FROST ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED TONIGHT FOR WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY WHERE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR WIDESPREAD FROST (AND THE
GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED). PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP IN
PORTIONS OF SARATOGA AND EASTERN SCHENECTADY COUNTIES, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SUNDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A DRY DAY IN STORE, BUT BREEZY WITH
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. CONTINUED THE TREND OF
INCREASING WINDS TO THE FORECAST FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS DATA AS GOOD MIXING WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS CAN
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST AND EXITING THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXITS, WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 MPH FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD RANGE
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN 25 AND 35
PERCENT. DEPENDING ON THE PARTNER COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON ON
THE CONDITIONS OF THE VERY FINE FUELS, FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
COULD BE ISSUED FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK FOR THE DRYING
CONDITIONS AND LOW RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MORNING UPDATE: NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON, SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK, SPECIFICALLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND MAY WIND UP STALLING
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE
THE FRONT MAY STALL, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT OUR REGION
WILL SEE A WARM UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE AI/ML GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH IS STILL UNKNOWN, AS THE
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF VARIABILITY. WITH REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THE
MID-WEEK AS WELL. THE NBM IS ALREADY SHOWING A 50-80% CHANCE
FOR 1" OF RAINFALL IN TOTAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/SUN...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEPART THE TAF SITES BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY THE MIDDAY HOURS WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR, MAINLY NEAR KGFL. CLEARING OCCURS THIS EVENING WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM AT KGFL
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF IT RECEIVES A RAIN SHOWER LATER TODAY.
WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KT TODAY DECREASING
TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/05
AVIATION...33
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