858
FXUS61 KALY 162340
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WATCHING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING INTO THE
ADKS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. FINALLY, SOME
SEVERE STORMS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON SATURDAY. SOME STORMS SATURDAY COULD BE ON
THE STRONGER SIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF SMOKE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO NWS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTING THE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN WESTERN ONTARIO. WHILE
SMOKE IS NOT QUITE AS THICK HERE LOCALLY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY, WE
ARE STILL SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AROUND THE REGION
WITH POU AT 2 1/2SM VISIBILITY. THE SMOKE HAS HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN MOST SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. STATE AGENCIES FOR NY, VT, CT, AND MA HAVE ALL ISSUED
AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE STATES DUE TO FINE
PARTICULATE MATTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE. HRRR AND RRFS
SMOKE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THIS SMOKE SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH
OF OUR REGION TOMORROW AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THE SMOKE COULD RETURN SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AS OF 2:50 PM EDT...990 MB SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR, WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE BTV FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
COLD FRONT, AND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD TRACK INTO THE
ADKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREENS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS HELPED THESE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A
LINE, BUT THE LACK OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND SMOKE REDUCING
DAYTIME HEATING ARE RESULTING IN A LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS
OUR REGION (ALTHOUGH THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY FURTHER
NORTH WHERE THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED). THESE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER
OUR CWA, ALTHOUGH DCAPE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS OUR REGION SO
WE CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST OR
TWO. SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT SAGGING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND COMFORTABLE TONIGHT
WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
BENEATH CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP US DRY TOMORROW, AND
THE SMOKE SHOULD MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH MORE SUN,
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING, AND THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM ADVECTION. WE
THEN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A STRENGTHENING 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) TO 30-40 KT
PROVIDING AMPLE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND SATURDAY, WHICH
COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING. EVEN IF WE SEE MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER, THE RETURN OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE
MAY ALSO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING. MEAGER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. WE
MAY SEE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN AREAS, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. QUESTIONS
ALSO REMAIN REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT AN AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTH
OF THE REGION MAY BLOCK SOME OF THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION, FURTHER REDUCING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT.
HOWEVER, FORCING, ESPECIALLY AT UPPER LEVELS, DOES LOOK STRONG
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET NEARBY AND MAY BE ABLE
TO HELP OVERCOME SOME OF THESE LIMITING FACTORS.
ALL THIS SAID, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER
JUST RIGHT TO REALIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF OUR
REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WHICH MAKES SENSE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OFF TO OUR WEST WHERE INSTABILITY LOOKS MORE
PLENTIFUL.
WILL ALSO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SATURDAY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS, AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.75-
2", HIGHEST FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS >10 KFT
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY STORMS. HOWEVER, MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE GONE 7-10 DAYS SINCE THE LAST APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL, AND STORM MOTIONS LOOK RELATIVELY FAST. WPC HAS PLACED
OUR WHOLE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK ERO, BUT THE ONLY POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING CONCERNS SEEMS TO BE IF WE GET MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS TRACKING OVER ANY OF OUR URBAN AREAS. FOR MOST AREAS, ANY
RAIN RECEIVED WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL.
WE DRY OUT SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH WITH FAIRLY STRONG
FORCING AND DYNAMICS WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONGER STORMS, AS AI GUIDANCE IS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING THIS AS
A POSSIBILITY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... VISIBILITIES FROM HAZE/SMOKE HAVE
TRENDED BACK TO VFR AT GFL, ALB, AND PSF AS A BOUNDARY SWEEPS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. IFR VIS
CONTINUES THROUGH 02-03 UTC AT POU WHERE HAZE/SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES; HOWEVER, VIS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER AT GFL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, PATCHY FOG/MIST IS POSSIBLE FROM 06 - 10 UTC
RESULTING IN MVFR VIS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
12-15 UTC SUSTAINED 5-8KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 12KTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...31
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