256
FXUS61 KALY 192334
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
734 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND THE SLIGHT
RISK REMOVE FROM OUR AREA FOR TODAY, AS THE BEST FORCING AND
ORGANIZED STORMS MAY REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION. STILL, A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE FOR TODAY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS.
POPS HAVE LOWERED SOMEWHAT FOR TOMORROW ALONG THE FRONT AS
PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED. MANY AREAS MAY STAY DRY AND
THE THREAT FOR JUST ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE
FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, AND MAY BE A GREATER THREAT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF PRECIP FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.
2) A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING, DURATION
AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING WITH A COLD FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE RELIEF EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH STEADY/FALLING TEMPS FOR THE DAY, FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE
90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ONCE AGAIN WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK.
COOLER AND DRIER WILL ARRIVE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
OUR REGION IS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS WELL WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, ALTHOUGH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
THE AREA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS, WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE,
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS (SURFACE TEMPS APPROACHING 90 IN MANY
AREAS) IS ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH THE BEST VALUES TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
WARM TEMPS ALOFT, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR,
GENERALLY UNDER 6 DEG C/KM. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STRONG,
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE STRONG SOLAR HEATING TODAY.
OVERALL, COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
LOOKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. BASED OFF THE LATEST CAMS, ACTIVITY
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
SLIDE EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT GET TOO ORGANIZED ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH THE BETTER FORCING STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THERE
IS ENOUGH OVERLAP OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE
SEVERE AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS DUE TO THE
DECENT SHEAR AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE A FEW
REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THE LIMITED
FORCING AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY KEEP A LARGE
SEVERE OUTBREAK FROM OCCURRING.
ON WEDNESDAY, SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, BUT DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH AI/ML GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS PA/NJ OR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE LATE WEEK. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. DRY
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VARYING REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP.
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THANKS TO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS COULD OCCUR AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THIS AND/OR KEEPING THE BULK OF IT TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE NBM WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRIER
WEATHER. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT (PERHAPS
FOR SUNDAY), ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED (SUNDAY NIGHT
AND/OR MONDAY) AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO CHANCE FOR
SUN/MON. WHILE SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE, IT MAY NOT BE TOTALLY
RAINING ENTIRELY THESE TWO DAYS, SO SOME DRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
FOR A PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP, TEMPS MAY BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S, ALTHOUGH IF SOME
SUN DOES OCCUR, THEN HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
ULTIMATELY, IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF THE
PRECIP, WHICH SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE TAF SITES. A LIGHT
SURFACE WIND SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE SITES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND BRING BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN A PROB30 GROUP.
CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDER, MAINLY AT KPOU, WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. DRIER WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...33
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