374  
FXUS61 KALY 210246  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
946 PM EST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR  
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH  
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY.  
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 930 PM EST...RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STRETCH FROM THE  
MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN GREENS AND  
NORTHERN BERKS PER GOES NIGHTTIME IMAGERY. STILL AWAITING THE  
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS  
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SO FAR ITS -4F AT INDIAN LAKE TO 25F AT  
POUGHKEEPSIE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD AS RADIATIONAL COOLING  
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A CHILLY-COLD NIGHT.  
 
PREV DISC, STILL SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND  
FLURRIES, MAINLY ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST AND WEST OF THE  
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, ALTHOUGH  
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
GREENS AS WELL. FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 800 FEET IN THESE AREAS,  
INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION, MAINLY CLOUDS/VIRGA WITH JUST  
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, TO THE 20S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS, EXCEPT  
30-35 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. BRISK WEST TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AT 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP  
TO 25-30 MPH.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW  
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND  
EASTERN CATSKILLS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. SOME  
SCATTERED DUSTINGS (PERHAPS UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH) WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST. OTHERWISE, AS LOW  
AND MID LEVEL WINDS BEGIN VEERING SLIGHTLY WITH THE MID LEVEL  
TROUGH PASSAGE, EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO BECOME  
CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST HERKIMER COUNTY AND POSSIBLY  
SCHOHARIE COUNTY.  
 
ELSEWHERE, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS  
NORTH OF I-90. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY BITTER COLD  
TEMPS, GIVEN A COLD, DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, A DEEP SNOWPACK, AND  
WINDS TRENDING TO CALM. HAVE UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY  
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH MAY NOT HAVE UNDERCUT ENOUGH, WITH  
WIDESPREAD FORECAST MIN TEMPS OF -10 TO -20F EXPECTED,  
INCLUDING WITHIN THE GLENS FALLS AREA, ASSUMING WINDS BECOME  
CALM FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD. TEMPS COULD BE LOCALLY COLDER.  
ELSEWHERE, STILL COLD, BUT WITHOUT THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE,  
AND ALSO SLOWER DECREASE IN WIND MAGNITUDES AND CLOUDS, HAVE  
GONE CLOSER TO NBM MINS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND  
10 ABOVE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
FRIDAY, AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST, SOME  
REMNANT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES COULD GRAZE PORTIONS OF  
HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY  
NORTHERN PORTIONS. ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE  
EXPECTED, AND WITH A DEVELOPING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, LATE DAY  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AFTER THE COLD MORNING, WITH HIGHS  
REACHING 30-35 IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST, WITH  
MAINLY 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY, GENERALLY DRY, ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE  
PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION AND CONTINUED LOW/MID LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS  
DURING SATURDAY. IN FACT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH OF  
SATURDAY COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS  
AND SOUTHERN VT, WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO  
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION, AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE  
DAY. OTHERWISE, CHILLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS  
BITTER AS TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS,  
ALTHOUGH SOME MIN TEMPS BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW CAN NOT BE  
RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE  
GEORGE REGION. LATE DAY HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD REACH 40-45 IN  
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST, WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S  
TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY, SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN  
AREAS SATURDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED, WITH MILDER TEMPS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE  
TEENS NORTHERN AREAS, AND LOWER/MID 20S SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS  
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH 45-50, IF NOT WARMER, FOR THE HUDSON RIVER  
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH/EAST, AND 40-45 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS TO  
THE NORTH AND WEST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND  
SOUTHERN GREENS IN VT SHOULD REACH 35-40.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, THE WEATHER  
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE ACTIVE HEADING INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF  
FEBRUARY. WHILE WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION  
THANKS TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN CONUS, COLD AIR  
IS ONCE AGAIN LACKING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WE  
WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON THURSDAY AS THAT MAY POSE OUR BEST POTENTIAL  
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT MAY LEAD TO ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW.  
READ ON FOR DETAILS.  
 
WE START THE PERIOD OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AND MILD  
WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND PERSISTING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS  
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH DEEP, STREGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ADVECTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES  
MONDAY TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S TO EVEN NEAR 50 IN THE HUDSON  
VALLEY. LATEST ECME AND GFSX MOS GUIDANCE BOTH POINT TO TEMPERATURES  
NEAR OR JUST OVER 50 AT MOST OF OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES (ALB, PSF,  
POU, DDH). GIVEN THE MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, THE  
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE SO WE SHOWCASE MONDAY AS ONE OF THE WARMEST  
DAY OF THE UPCOMING MILD STRETCH.  
 
HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE  
OHIO VALLEY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW  
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS  
SOME DIFFERENCE IN BOTH THE TRACK OF THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND ITS  
STRENGTH. THE GFS AND CMC-NH SUGGEST THE SHORTWAVE IS MORE  
AMPLIFIED, CLOSING OFF UP TO 700MB, AND THUS PRODUCING MUCH HIGHER  
QPF AMOUNTS AND TRACK THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER WEST UP THE SAINT  
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THE ECWMF SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER  
SHORTWAVE WHICH RESULTS IN IT TRACKING IT FURTHER EAST FROM THE MID-  
ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE  
DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES, WE  
CAPPED THE POPS AT CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH  
MILD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND NO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENT  
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN.  
 
WE SHOULD SEE A DRY BREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
BRIEFLY ENSUES BEFORE THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE  
CENTRAL CONUS AMPLIFIES AND DIGS INTO GULF COAST STATES. GUIDANCE IS  
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE  
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS THE OVERALL  
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED (MAINLY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF). AS  
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES, A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP  
WITH IT TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRENGTHEN THIS DISTURBANCE MUCH TOO  
QUICKLY, SHOWING IT CUTTING OFF UP TO 500MB BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE  
THE CMC-NH KEEPS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NEUTRALLY TILTED AND THUS DOES  
NOT DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW AT ALL. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS NOT AS  
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS, IT STILL SHOWS A SIMILAR STORM EVOLUTION WITH  
IT MATURING AND CUTTING OFF UP TO 500MB BY 18Z THURSDAY SO WE LEANED  
OUR LATEST FORECAST CLOSER TO IT. WHILE COLD AIR IS ONCE AGAIN  
LACKING, THE IMPRESSIVE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM BOTH THE ECWMF AND  
GFS PRODUCES A DECENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE SURFACE LOW  
QUICKLY DEEPENING BELOW 990MB. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE WET-BULBING  
PROCESSES LEAD TO HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE  
VALLEY ON THURSDAY.  
 
AS THE CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE  
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SYSTEM'S POTENT COLD FRONT ADVECTING IN A  
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH LAKE ONTARIO  
STILL MILD/ABOVE FREEZING, WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS COULD TRANSITION  
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS AS STRATUS DECK SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG WITH THOSE  
WIND MAGNITUDES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
 
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VFR CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT  
UPSTREAM APPROACHES. SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE  
MAY BRING SCT-BKN DECK NORTH OF I90 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS AND FROM THE WESTERLY  
DIRECTION.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.  
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT  
LEAST SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL  
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM  
SHORT TERM...KL  
LONG TERM...SPECIALE  
AVIATION...BGM/RATHBUN  
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL  
 
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