391
FXUS61 KALY 222254
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS, FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TODAY'S 16 UTC SPC OUTLOOK REMOVED OUR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES FROM THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRETCH OF DRY AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE WILL ENJOY A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AS
BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SFC SUPPORTING VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE GREAT OPPORTUNITIES TO OPEN THE WINDOWS
AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
LIKELY DEVELOP IN TYPICALLY VALLEY AREAS BOTH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO CREEPING UPWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF SHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS A MILDER
AIR MASS NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES
TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES REMAINS VERY LOW (UNDER 20%) SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HEATRISK
ALSO ONLY IN THE "MINOR" CATEGORY. WEAK TROUGHING RETURNS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SIGNS FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO SWING INTO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE THERE
IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BOTH DAYS, THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS (GREATER
THAN 1 INCH IN A 24HR PERIOD) REMAINS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/FRIDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
PATCHY GROUND FOG/LOW UPSLOPE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF BETWEEN
08Z-10Z/THU BEFORE LIFTING AROUND 13Z/THU, WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO, CAN NOT RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG
AT KGFL BETWEEN 08Z/10Z/THU WITH A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, PATCHY CLOUDS WITH CIGS 4000-6000 FT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TONIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON
THURSDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...24
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