689
FXUS61 KALY 131035
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BEST FORCING FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY APPEARS TO BE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT OVERALL
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED, CONTINUED TO LEAN TEMPS
TOWARDS THE LOWER-END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR SHELTERED AREAS VALLEYS.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POPS NOW IN THE LIKELY
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW FOR TODAY.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE CROSSING OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN THOUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE TO OUR EAST, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE TODAY (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ABOVE
40 KTS ACCORDING TO THE 00Z HRRR), BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ON THE LOWER SIDE (GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS). LAPSE
RATES ALOFT LOOK FAIRLY WEAK AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS. WHILE A
ROGUE STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, THE COVERAGE
TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. CAMS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR ANY
STORMS WILL BE JUST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE
OVERALL TIMING OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WHERE THE BETTER FORCING
WILL FOCUS THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS. 00Z SPC HREF ALSO
SHOWS THE BETTER UPDRAFT HELICITY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION FOR TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
IS MORE LIMITED AS WELL AND PWATS LOOK MUCH LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH
LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH
COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION, BEGINNING ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WHEN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
50S, WITH EVEN SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DESPITE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. ALBANY AIRPORT HAS REACHED INTO
THE 80S EACH DAY THIS MONTH SO FAR, SO THIS WILL BE NOTICEABLE.
HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK MORE COMFORTABLE AS WELL, WITH DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE, A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE
RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A WIDESPREAD CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NBM POPS ARE NOW
IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING AND THIS MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER BURSTS
OF RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
OVERALL. NBM ALREADY SHOWS A 20% TO 40% CHANCE FOR 1" OR RAIN
OR GREATER, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL QPF TRENDS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG IS LIKELY TOWARD THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD
THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
LATER IN THE MORNING. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
SPARSE COVERAGE, CONFIDENCE ON A SHOWER/STORM REACHING A CERTAIN
TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF UPDATE. MORE
CLEARING TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION, MAINLY AT
KGFL/KPSF. WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 10-15 KT TODAY
DIMINISHING TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...33
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