282  
FXUS61 KALY 180532  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
132 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM AND HUMID CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WITH  
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY WILL BECOME OPPRESSIVE BY MONDAY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM EDT....SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER NY  
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTUBANCE  
YESTERDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
DRYING OVER NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG  
ARE FORMING WITH THE RECENT WET GROUND, AS WELL AS LOW STRATUS.  
WE KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS, AND WENT PATCHY OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS COOLED DUE TO THE SHOWERS IN THUNDERSTORMS  
INTO THE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STEADY AND NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH. THE NEXT  
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATER TODAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
TODAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL HAVE A  
REPEAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A BOUNDARY. WITH INSTABILITY, LIFT AND  
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN  
THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME FLASH  
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW  
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL  
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES  
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. THE OVERNIGHT LOW WILL BE MILD AROUND 70  
DEGREES.  
 
MONDAY...THE HEAT IS ON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 90  
DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, THE  
GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. IT  
WILL BE VERY HUMID AND OPPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER  
70S. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS WELL NORTH OF 90, WILL HAVE  
TO MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX FOR MONDAY. WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WITH THE INSTABILITY AND  
MOISTURE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NOT SEE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS  
IS USHERED OUT BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID.  
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH  
LIFT, INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AND SOME  
IMPULSES OVERNIGHT, WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
FORECAST THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
BY THURSDAY THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  
THIS WILL BRING RELIEF AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE  
REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING, THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE MORE  
SEASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. FRIDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0520Z, MOIST NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAY'S  
RAINFALL ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE  
TERMINALS. KPOU IS THE ONLY SITE YET TO HAVE VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS, BUT  
EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS  
TO PERSIST (WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS TO VFR) FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO ERODE BY  
12-13Z.  
 
THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE  
TIED TO UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  
CURRENTLY, MODELS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE 18.20Z-19.03Z TIMEFRAME. WILL MAINTAIN  
PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND  
HAIL. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD AT AROUND 4-  
6KFT AGL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY  
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS  
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL  
BECOME OPPRESSIVE BY MONDAY.  
 
MAX RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT THE  
NEXT 48 HOURS  
 
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL  
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS  
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS, AS HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEW POINTS ARE ON THE  
INCREASE. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING  
OF URBAN, LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME TEMPORARY  
ELEVATED FLOWS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON BROOKS,  
STREAMS, CREEKS AND OTHER SMALL BODIES OF WATER.  
 
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY THURSDAY WHEN A COLD  
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA  
NEAR TERM...WASULA  
SHORT TERM...VTK  
LONG TERM...VTK  
AVIATION...THOMPSON  
FIRE WEATHER...VTK  
HYDROLOGY...VTK  
 
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