795
FXUS61 KALY 071754
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO TRACK
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALSO
CONTINUED TO LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK, AND WILL MESSAGE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.
2) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT
HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (95F).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:30 AM EDT...999 MB SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC, WITH A 1015 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR, AND WILL EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE ARE SEEING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS WHERE THERE IS SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT, BUT THESE
SHOWERS LOOK LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY SUNRISE, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S (TERRAIN) TO MID 60S (VALLEYS).
TODAY, WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER TROUGHING AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AND OVERLAPS WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN. THIS FORCING
SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT
WILL DROP SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME BENEFICIAL (ALBEIT LIGHT)
RAIN FOR MANY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON YESTERDAY'S SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SOME POCKETS
OF LIMITED INSTABILITY, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED
OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THANKFULLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR VALLEY
AREAS. IT WILL BE LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING SFC
HIGH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS 20-30
MPH TODAY.
TONIGHT, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES
CLEAR, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE 40S AND
50S. MONDAY, WE WILL BE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE SFC HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE, IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH CONTINUED
COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS 70S TO LOW 80S) AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN RADIATE INTO THE 40S
AND 50S MONDAY NIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TUESDAY, THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
SETTING UP WARMER/MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRAWING CLOSER TO OUR REGION,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER, WITH UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WE CONTINUED TO LOWER TEMPS FROM THE NBM GIVEN ITS
PERSISTENT WARM BIAS. WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AROUND PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
GIVEN THIS, WE LOWERED NBM TEMPS UP TO 3-5 DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO
MOS GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT WE GET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITHOUT
NEEDING ANY HEAT ADVISORIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. AS THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST, THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
OUR REGION AGAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
90S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND I-84 CORRIDOR.
WHILE WPC DID LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH (BY AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES), AND REPRESENTS A WORST CASE SCENARIO
FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST, AND POSSIBLY MORE IF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
SLOWER TO DEPART THURSDAY AND THERE ARE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
AROUND. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN FORECAST. THAT SAID, IT IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID/MUGGY, SO SOME HEAT ADVISORIES COULD STILL BE NEEDED
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY, ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH KGFL WILL BRIEFLY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO MODERATE RAIN AND MIST OVER THE NEXT HALF AN
HOUR OR SO. THE SAME BATCH OF SHOWERS CAUSING LESS THAN IDEAL
FLYING CONDITIONS AT KGFL WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND IMPACT
KALB AND KPSF WITHIN THE HOUR, BUT ONLY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONCE THIS BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ENDS, THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING AT
KGFL AND KALB LATER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BY 00Z THIS
EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REINFORCED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KGFL DUE TO MIST/FOG.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. LATEST OBS CURRENTLY SHOW SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF ABOUT 10 TO NEARLY 15 KT WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
ABOUT 20 TO 30 KT. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH UNTIL GUSTS ARE LOST AND
SUSTAINED SPEEDS FALL UNDER 10 KT. TOMORROW MORNING, A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...12
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