965
FXUS61 KALY 081154
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NEAR-TERM (THROUGH 9 AM
THIS MORNING) ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,
AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA. ALSO INCREASED
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS FOR FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN VT.
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS SW ADIRONDACKS/UPSLOPE AREAS OF
SOUTHERN VT THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS OF BLACK ICE ELSEWHERE.
- SOME SNOWMELT DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASED RUNOFF FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIVER
RISES ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER OVERALL THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD ICE
JAM AND/OR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN VT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SOME
ICING LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SPOTTY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA. ALSO, AREAS
WHICH EXPERIENCED PRECIPITATION AND/OR SNOWMELT ON WEDNESDAY
HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, LEADING TO SOME BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WILL KEEP ADDRESSING BOTH HAZARDS THROUGH MID
MORNING VIA SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 40S IN MANY AREAS, SNOWMELT WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO
MAINLY VALLEY AREAS AS OVERALL SNOWPACK REMAINS QUITE COLD
FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-90. THE MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF IN DURATION, AS A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE BACK
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
AREAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, GENERALLY 0.25-0.50" FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY, AND UNDER 0.25" ELSEWHERE. THE
NEXT SURGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE GREATER, GENERALLY
WIDESPREAD 0.25-0.50" SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT.
OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SOME SNOWMELT, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION, THE EXPECTED RISES ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS AND CREEKS LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS AS GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND/OR WARMER TEMPERATURES WOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL ICE
MOVEMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT SURGE OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A WARM
NOSE ALOFT DESPITE LINGERING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. THIS SET UP MAY ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START AS A WINTRY MIX (MAINLY SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN) BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS, WITH GREATEST CHANCES CURRENTLY FAVORING
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND IN SOUTHERN
VT. CURRENT FORECAST NOW INCLUDES SOME ICE AMOUNTS (FLAT ICE
ACCRETION) OF 0.25-0.33" IN THESE AREAS. AGAIN, WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS AS AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE, OR EVEN
HIGHER, WOULD LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES
IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TRAVEL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
KALB/KGFL/KPSF THIS MORNING WHERE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS PERSIST.
KPOU IS THE EXCEPTION WITH IFR CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM FOG
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION, IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXIST AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND POSSIBLY THE FOLLOWING, SO
MAINTAINED A TEMPO FOR IFR FOG THROUGH 14Z.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH
CEILINGS BEGINNING TO BREAK AND FOG DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE MVFR STRATUS AND POSSIBLY IFR
STRATUS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY IN PLACE. BUT EVENTUALLY,
CEILINGS HERE SHOULD BREAK AS WELL SUCH THAT ALMOST CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL BY SUNDOWN. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION
ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF AND POTENTIALLY KALB. TEMPO GROUPS
WERE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE 12Z PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/24
AVIATION...37
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