166
FXUS61 KALY 081042
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND THE
LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION HAS BEEN CANCELED THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
PREVIOUS CHANGES...
AN EXPANSION OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TODAY FOR
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC TROUGH PASSAGE.
SOME VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AND NORTHERN
SARATOGA REGION BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE.
SKYCOVER AND POPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SAT-SAT NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM FROM THE BASELINE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1)LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST MAY OCCUR AGAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S FOR WASHINGTON, NORTHERN SARATOGA, AND SOUTHEAST WARREN
COUNTIES BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE TONIGHT.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS,
BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW FOR RADIATIVE COOLING
(MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS) AND
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 32-36F RANGE MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE-GLENS FALLS AREA/NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. THE GROWING SEASON STARTED
ON MAY 1ST FOR THESE AREAS. THE COVERAGE AREA MAY BE SLIGHTLY
SMALLER AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS QUICKER. IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES, THEN ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
TO PROTECT TENDER, OUTDOOR VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A RATHER ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SAT WITH A MEAN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SFC TROUGH WILL YIELD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO
FORM. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED, BUT WE EXPANDED THE
COVERAGE OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60F IN THE VALLEYS, AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BREEZY W/NW WINDS CONTINUE 5 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS EARLY ON, BUT CLOUDS
QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SAT.
THE POPS ARE IN THE 60-95% RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN DACKS. IT WILL BE A COOL AND DAMP DAY.
THE RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY, BUT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IT WILL BE A DAMP AND CHILLY DAY WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH A
QUARTER TO A HALF SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SHOWERS END EARLY SAT NIGHT, BUT THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT
WILL BE ARRIVING FOR MOTHERS DAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AFTER A COOL NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS MAY RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL MAY READINGS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F IN THE
VALLEYS AND 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY MAY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE EAST
COAST WITH A WAVE TRACKING ALONG OR NEAR NY AND NEW ENGLAND SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON. THE HIGHEST PROBS FOR A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SOME
VARIABILITY CONTINUES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE. A DRIER TREND IS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WITH STILL COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS, THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE MID
WEEK ONWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. OVERALL, A WET AND UNSETTLED SPRING OR MAY
PATTERN, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE TO CAUSE
ANY FLOODING OR HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES
THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS FILTER THROUGH THE REGION. THERE MAY BE
PATCHY BREAKS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH, BUT INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE FILTERING IN SHORTLY BEHIND. WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR COURTESY OF A NEARBY HIGH, CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS EVERYWHERE TODAY EXCEPT AT PSF WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD FORCE A LOWERING INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS FOR A
BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
ENTER MANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WHETHER ANY RAIN
ACTUALLY REACHES THE GROUND IS YET TO BE SEEN. WE MAINTAINED
PROB30S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT GFL WHICH SEEMS TO MAINTAIN HOLD OF
ITS DRY AIR MORE EFFICIENTLY THAT THE OTHER TERMINALS. AT THOSE
LOCATIONS, VIRGA MAY BE ENOUGH TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AND HAVE
RAIN ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE. BUT ONCE THE SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CEASE AND CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE
ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION OUTSIDE THE 12Z
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REACH ABOUT 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EVERYWHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DEEP MIXING ALLOW A
DECREASING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL THEN BECOME RATHER LIGHT, UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...12
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