609
FXUS61 KALY 122338
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY.
2) FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, HIGH CHANCES FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS COULD
OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF
THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SLIDES INTO NEW YORK TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW YORK WITH MEDIUM (GREATER THAN
50%) TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AS RAINFALL
RATES ARE FORECASTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES PER HOUR WITH
ANY HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN AND THE LOCATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS IS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO MOHAWK VALLEY (TOTALS
BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES AND 1 INCH IS EXPECTED). TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF ALBANY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT STRONGLY FAVORED TO MATERIALIZE AT THIS
FORECAST TIME. AS INGREDIENTS ARE NOT FAVORED BY THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
STORMS FOR TOMORROW. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY, A DREARY
TUESDAY IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT IT'S GOING TO BE CHILLY AND WINDY. READ PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND -8 TO -10 C ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z GEFS, WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. 00Z
GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SOME
LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT,
ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN, NORTHERN AND HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS. AT THIS POINT, ITS HARD TO STAY HOW MUCH (IF AT
ALL) ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD OCCUR, BUT THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE
SEASON ARE A POSSIBILITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH THE
EXPECTED CHILLY AIR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION, A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/WED...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT FOR TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL START FOR MOST SITES (EXCEPT MVFR AT KPSF) WITH MOST SITES
TRENDING DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR LATER TONIGHT. IFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF PRIOR TO 12Z/TUE. AT KPOU, PATCHY
FOG MAY FORM IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
INTRODUCED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A TEMPO. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WILL TRACK FROM AROUND KALB/KPSF AND POINTS NORTH LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AT KGFL. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORED AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL
THROUGH THIS TIME. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY STAY NORTH OF
KPOU SO KEPT THIS TAF DRY WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS, EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12-18Z/TUE. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KT
TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35
KTS. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/05
AVIATION...33
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