562  
FXUS61 KALY 181044  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
644 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
UPDATE  
 
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNING AND MOST OF THE FROST  
ADVISORY OUTSIDE OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT DUE TO  
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER  
40S IN MANY OF THESE AREAS.  
 
HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON  
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS. CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON INTO THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR SOME AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ONGOING AREA OF  
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NYS. ALTHOUGH MOST CAMS SUGGEST THESE  
SHOWERS WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT AT  
LEAST SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN AREAS THIS  
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.  
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY  
WEATHER. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND  
DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN,  
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. COOL AND  
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING  
BENEFICIAL, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
- 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES FOR > 0.5" RANGE FROM ~70-85%  
REGIONWIDE WITH ~40-70% PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1".  
 
DISCUSSION:  
MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE INCOMING COLD  
FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO  
HEAVY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS  
INCREASED FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INCOMING FRONT,  
ALLOWING FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS. 01Z NBM 24-HOUR PROBS ENDING 8 PM MONDAY CONTINUE TO  
INCREASE FOR BOTH >0.50 AND >1" RAINFALL (70-85%, 40-70%  
RESPECTIVELY). THERE ARE EVEN SOME 30-40% PROBS FOR >2" RAINFALL  
NOW INDICATED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING  
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS HEAVIER RAIN ASSUMES POTENTIAL NARROW  
COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND SLOWS DOWN WITH A PIVOT-POINT SOMEWHERE  
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE  
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SOME PONDING OF WATER IN  
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WHERE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS LINGER.  
 
IN ADDITION, GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO  
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF THE  
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE  
LIKELY WITHIN NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS DUE TO CHANNELED FLOW  
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  
 
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MORE  
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE  
HUDSON RIVER BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE  
COULD EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS  
THE SW ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER/MID 60S. BECOMING CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME  
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER  
40S. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN  
VALLEYS AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WITH A  
MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS, THOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND  
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
LONG TERM, AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH  
THE REGION AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY  
RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER  
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD,  
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD STILL FAVOR AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH COVERAGE/FREQUENCY GREATER ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE ADDED LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL  
BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  
 
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH  
WILL INITIALLY REACH THE 50S/60S TUESDAY, COOLING TO THE 40S  
(HIGHER TERRAIN) AND 50S (VALLEYS) WED-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN  
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS  
FROM THE NORTH CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  
CALM WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.  
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE RH VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR AREAS  
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND 40-50% WITHIN AND WEST OF  
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, BUT THE RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD LOOKS LOW  
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY, WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE  
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GUSTS OF UP TO 25-35 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES  
GET, BUT AT THIS POINT A "REASONABLE WORST CASE" SCENARIO IS FOR  
MINIMUM RH OF 40-50% IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN  
BENNINGTON COUNTY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES 50-65% ELSEWHERE. A  
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD QUELL ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ064>066.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...24  
SYNOPSIS...24/35  
SHORT TERM...24  
LONG TERM...24  
AVIATION...05  
FIRE WEATHER...24/35  
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