699
FXUS61 KALY 131927
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AROUND SUNSET. A
SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREAR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
A COUPLE OF MID- LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVNEING. THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING
BY EVENING. DRYER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS ALREADY
FILTERING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT IT APPEARS THAT
THE THREAT FOR ANY HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS DIMINISHING. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNSET.
AFTER A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING, A MID-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR AWHILE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEASTERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING AND
LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. THE DAY MAY START WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
AFTER ANOTHER LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES LATER TUESDAY MORNING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL HEATING. WIND FIELDS AND
INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE MODEST AND THE
RISK FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS LOOKS TO BE QUITE
LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 IN THE VALLEYS AND IN THE 70S OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
A STRONG RIDGE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PUSHING
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION, ONE ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OR PART OF THE REGION, OR STALL TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST.
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH SOME PARTS OF THE REGION IN A LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS DECK DUE TO A SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS WELL TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WILL HAVE THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS GREATER ACROSS THAT REGION. FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT BEST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, WE STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM,
WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THE MORNING TO DISSIPATE. THIS
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS; HOWEVER,
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND
WHETHER ANY UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW,
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST AND LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID- TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW TO MID-80S IN THE VALLEYS, THEN
TREND UPWARDS TO THE 80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW TO MID-90S IN
THE VALLEYS.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WILL FOCUS ON THE COVERAGE, TIMING, AND PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD BRING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE FA AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL HEAVILY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND MULTIPLE MID-
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS EVIDENT VIA THE HI-RES
MODELS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEPICTED FROM THE MODELS
ARE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS, HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AND VCTS FOR THE TAF SITES TO START THE PERIOD. KGFL
IS THE SITE THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE AND COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS IT'S IN BETTER
POSITION/PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL MID-UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. FOR KGFL, THUNDER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
REDUCED TO MAINLY SHOWERY (NON-CONVECTIVE) ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. FOR
KALB AND KPSF, VCSH SHOULD DIE DOWN AT OR AROUND 21Z AND POSSIBLY
PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR KPOU, VCTS SHOULD COME
TO AN END AROUND 20Z. BEING FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH, KPOU HAS THE BEST
CHANCE COMPARED TO THE OTHER SITES TO REMAIN DRY THEREAFTER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING/AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
WINDS GENERALLY WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS DURING
THE DAY TAPERING DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KTS AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FIRE WEATHER
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP JUST A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE RISING BACK TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY, BEFORE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND BACK TOWARDS THE 90S BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT,
BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVEERAGE 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT,
BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
INTO TUESDAY. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AROUND HALF AN
INCH WILL CAUSE PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREA, BUT SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. WATER LEVELS ON THE MAIN RIVERS WILL
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THIS WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/NAS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...EVBUOMA
FIRE WEATHER...MSE/NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/MSE
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