995
FXUS61 KALY 080613
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EDT, COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE SW
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF FAR
NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK OUTSIDE OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH/EAST THIS MORNING, ENDING FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY BY MID MORNING, AND BY
MIDDAY FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL POISED TO PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ASSUMING SOME
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER
AND ALSO ALLOWS FOR A BREEZE TO PERSIST. THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT
COOLING POTENTIAL TONIGHT, WITH AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER, ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS, EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 30S WITH MAINLY UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
VT. WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT, WHERE MIN TEMPS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 30S. ALTHOUGH ACTUAL FROST FORMATION MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED DUE TO SOME CLOUDS/WIND, COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION IN THESE AREAS. SHOULD MORE
CLEARING/LESS WIND OCCUR FARTHER EAST, COLDER MIN TEMPS AND
ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN VT.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND CHILLY FOR THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS, ALTHOUGH IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME VALLEY AREAS ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES GIVEN
THE COLD/VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH PWAT'S DROPPING < 0.25" AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OUTSIDE OF THE
SW ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AFTER A COLD/FROSTY START, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
CHILLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN
MA.
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INCREASES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS (25-30%) ARE INDICATED, WITH LOWER POPS
(15-20%) FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, COOLING
SUNDAY-MONDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DUE TO MORE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR SHOULD
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S. SLIGHT WARMING BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S FOR
MOST AREAS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN NOTED
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KGFL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH
ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO COME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE, PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 14-17Z OR SO BEFORE RAIN MOVES OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO MIX OUT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CEILINGS POTENTIALLY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER, YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE
DURATION OF THE 06Z CYCLE, INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, UPON THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 TO
15 KT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH ATTENDANT GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>040-
047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...05/24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...37
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