977
FXUS61 KALY 111735
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST
AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR TONIGHT.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED GOOD MIXING AND DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER.
QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK SIMILAR FOR MIDWEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW, BUT IMPACTS LOOKS
LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR TONIGHT, WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON NEWLY PLANTED
VEGETATION.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW AS THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. BASED ON
MODE GUIDANCE, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA.
WHILE IT HAS BEEN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING, BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA GETS CLOSER
TO THE AREA. SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE WINDS REDUCE QUICKER,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF FASTER FOR THOSE AREAS.
WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY ONLY IN THE 50S, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO
FALL TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK FOR SHELTERED, OUTLYING AND HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS FOR TONIGHT. THE GROWING SEASON IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA (JUST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS REMAIN
OUT OF THE SEASON AT THIS TIME). IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE LEANED TOWARDS AN HREF/MAV/LAV BLEND
FOR LOWS FOR TONIGHT, WHICH HAS BEEN WORKING WELL LATELY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT, SO HAVE SIDED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE, HAVE GONE
WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE BERKSHIRES, TACONICS, SE VERMONT,
GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA, HELDERBERGS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY, WHERE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FROST
FORMATION. ANY TENDER, YOUNG OR SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE
DAMAGED BY FROST/FREEZE AND PROTECTIVE MEASURES SHOULD BE TAKEN
TO PRESERVE THESE PLANTS. AFTER DAYBREAK, TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY
RISE, ENDING THE THREAT FOR FROST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY, UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS A LARGE AND
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF, WHICH WILL HAVE IT TAKES IT TIME AS
IT CROSSES THE REGION FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE INITIAL WARM FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
A STEADY LIGHT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
REGARDING TIMING, BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE SEEING WET WEATHER BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF STEADY
PRECIP, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE OCCLUDED
FRONT, WHICH SHOULD CROSS BY THE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT,
BUT INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND NO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY WITH THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. A SECONDARY LOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION, BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR
THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS RAIN, RATES WON'T BE EXCESSIVE AND THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST. AT THIS TIME, WE AREN'T
OUTLOOKED BY WPC FOR ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TOTAL QPF FROM THE
NBM LOOKS TO BE OVER AN INCH, ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF 2" IS
FAIRLY LOW, WITH PROBABILITIES MAINLY UNDER 20% (EXCEPT SOUTHERN
VT, WHERE THE PROBABILITY IS 20-30%). OVERALL, THIS RAINFALL
LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
DURING TRAVEL, BUT NO FLOODING OR HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS, THERE SHOULD
BE NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE
CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER TO 6-9 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/TUE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAY-
TIME HEATING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
04Z-06Z/TUE...WITH JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS OR CIRRUS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 7-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
LIGHT/VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ039>041-043-048-051-054-061-082>084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ038-047-058-063.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VTZ015.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...15
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