393  
FXUS61 KALY 051038  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
638 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY  
AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL  
BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST  
LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY  
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
   
UPDATE
 
RADAR INDICATING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBS AREN'T  
SHOWING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL YET. SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE  
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE RANGE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON  
WHEN THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH MORE WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY  
TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST ON TRACK  
WITH MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.  
   
PREVIOUS[0347]
 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN  
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE CYCLONE APPROACHING FROM THE  
NORTH AND WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED  
TO AREAS NORTH OF I-90 AND HAVE BEEN LIGHT. WILL MENTION  
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY NORTH OF ALBANY, THEN GRADUALLY  
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, AS  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP.  
 
THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED  
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR GETTING INTO A TRUE WARM SECTOR. BEST CHANCES FOR  
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME LIMITED WARMING WILL BE SOUTH OF  
ALBANY LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CHANNEL UP TO THE  
HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTS OF 20  
TO 30 MPH EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING.  
HREF CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TODAY INTO THIS  
EVENING, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A CLOUDIER/COOLER SCENARIO  
DUE TO CONSENSUS ON A MORE SOUTHERN CYCLONE TRACK COMPARED TO  
PRIOR FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A GOOD 5-10  
DEGREES (UPPER 60S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH). AS A RESULT IT  
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY,  
ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 200-700 J/KG) IS  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING. WILL  
MENTION CHANCES FOR THUNDER GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD DURING  
THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE  
APPROACHES, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +2 STDEV. SO  
ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. WILL  
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY REPEATED AREAS OF DOWNPOURS FOR POSSIBLE  
LOCALIZED FLOODING, BUT OVERALL THIS THREAT SHOULD BE LOW AS THE  
RAINFALL WILL BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL. HREF PROBS FOR > 1" RAIN  
IN 3 HOURS IS MAINLY 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH  
~30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE  
FOR 3 HOURS IS GENERALLY 2-3". WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE  
THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS DESPITE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KT.  
TIMING IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FASTER, SO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME  
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING.  
 
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.  
IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT,  
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE  
HUDSON VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH THE  
CLOUDS/SHOWERS AROUND, WITH UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO  
LOWER/MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ON WEDNESDAY, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE  
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING AN  
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY IN THE MORNING, BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER  
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PWAT ANOMALIES DROPPING TO -1 TO -2  
STDEV. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SUNSHINE WITH DEWPOINTS  
GRADUALLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A N-NW BREEZE WILL  
DEVELOP AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL  
WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS.  
 
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE  
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE DRY, SO  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL EFFICIENTLY WITH LOWS  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S).  
 
A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME  
GUIDANCE INDICATING A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH  
JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY. WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON THE  
EXACT TRACK, WILL MENTION SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SOME  
SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS  
TIME, SINCE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER (SBCAPE < 200 J/KG). THE  
DEGREE OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING IS QUESTIONABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
SOUTHERN PARTS TO THE AREA. SO WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN  
THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS, WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80. A  
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH NEAR THE MID  
ATLANTIC REGION, BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA  
THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO FEATURE A STRONG, PERSISTENT, AND  
ELONGATED RIDGE COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES WITH THE  
MEAN RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AND TWO BOOKEND  
TROUGHS (ONE OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE OTHER  
ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA) DURING THE  
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL BIAS) FOR THE  
ALY CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL  
CONSIST OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER, BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CHANCE  
FOR PRECIPITATION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
WE START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE AN  
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH AND AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD  
BRING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CAPITAL  
REGION AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST CONTINUE TO HAVE THE GREATEST  
FAVORABILITY OF GETTING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH  
CONTINUED ENSEMBLE AND NBM SUPPORT, HAVE MAINTAINED 30-40%  
CHANCE POPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ALY CWA. AGAIN THIS  
INCLUDES AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH AND  
EAST.  
 
RAINFALL COMES TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A  
SPRAWLING 1024 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION. THIS WILL YIELD A RETURN TO DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER  
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
BEYOND MONDAY, DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS AND THEIR  
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AROUND AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM  
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FORM THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMING OUR NEXT RAIN MAKER IN THE TUESDAY-  
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. HEAVILY LEANING ON THE NBM AND ENSEMBLE  
SUPPORT, HAVE INTRODUCED 30-40% CHANCE POPS DURING THIS  
TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR CWA.  
 
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR THE EXTENDED WILL AVERAGE OUT NEAR  
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS  
RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS  
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (COOLER HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS). OVERALL, FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH  
THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN HERE IN THE LONG-TERM  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY....DURING THE DAY TODAY, CLOUDS WILL  
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER IN ELEVATION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL  
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER  
TO THE AREA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE THE  
SHOWERS ARRIVE BETWEEN 16Z-21Z. BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS COULD FALL  
FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR EMBEDDED  
THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER  
21Z-22Z.  
 
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING  
BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ROUGHLY BETWEEN 16Z-01Z. LATER  
THIS EVENING/NIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN  
BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY  
AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL  
BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST  
LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY  
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.  
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND  
50 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES  
BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO  
AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH,  
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS  
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH IN WAKE  
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE NORTH-  
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS,  
SO DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAUSING  
PONDING OF WATER IN FAVORED LOCATIONS (URBAN, LOW LYING AREAS).  
THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF MAINLY AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE  
EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES  
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED OR PROLONGED  
DOWNPOURS.  
 
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JPV  
NEAR TERM...JPV  
SHORT TERM...JPV  
LONG TERM...EVBUOMA  
AVIATION...EVBUOMA  
FIRE WEATHER...JPV  
HYDROLOGY...JPV  
 
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