275
FXUS61 KALY 100638
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
238 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND ROUND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, EMBEDDED IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, APPROACHES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT, IN A WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS,
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS, SOME OF WHICH
MAY BECOME SEVERE. AS A RESULT, SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
AVAILABLE HIGH-RES MODELS TO INCLUDE BOTH THE HRRR AND 3KM NAM,
SHOW DEVELOPING STORMS AFTER THE 18Z TIMEFRAME. FCST SOUNDINGS
FROM ACROSS THE AREA SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THANKS TO
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S LATER TODAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT, SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. DESPITE DECENT SYNOPTIC FORCING
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WEAKER DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
FIELDS AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
30-35 KTS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE STRONGER
SHEAR VALUES REMAIN OUT WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
WESTERN NEW YORK.
GIVEN DECENT DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THAT SAID, A HUMID AIRMASS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS, AND
WPC HAS ALSO MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA. STORMS SHOULD TRACK EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AFTER THE 00Z TIMEFRAME WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE REGION. AS OF RIGHT NOW, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
MOVE IN AFTER THE 00Z THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED, AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MONDAY...NIGHTTIME RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN LOWERING, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG/MIST COULD
DEVELOP AT KGFL AND KPSF NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING LOWERING
VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR HOWEVER, ANY FOG/MIST THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ABOUT 21Z TO 03Z. LOWERED VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WINDS TONIGHT ARE LIGHT AND/OR CALM
BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 KT TOMORROW WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KT. WINDS THEN TAPER OFF TO LESS THEN
5 KT INTO THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...53
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