288  
FXUS61 KALY 170030  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
830 PM EDT FRI APR 16 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SCATTERED  
RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT. THEN, A  
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY GIVING US A  
COOL YET DRY DAY. THEN, MILDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY  
WITH SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
ALL WINTER WEATHER HAZARDOUS HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED  
ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT  
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES  
WHERE TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. OTHERWISE,  
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CAPE COD IS SHOWING SIGNS OF  
DEPARTING TO THE ESE WHICH WILL REDUCE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE  
REGION TONIGHT.  
 
FROM EARLIER, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 5 AND  
10 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS, 0.5 TO 3 INCHES IN  
THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHERN VT, 3 TO 5 IN THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD  
COUNTY, 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INCLUDING THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE HELDERBERGS WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN  
AN INCH ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NY.  
 
IN EASTERN NY, CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN  
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. THE 12 UTC  
BUF SOUNDING SHOWED SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH EXPLAINS  
WHY WE HAVE RECEIVED SOME REPORTS IN THE CATSKILLS OF GRAUPEL.  
OTHERWISE, EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH  
LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 30S FOR  
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE MORNING CLOUDS THAT BREAK FOR SOME  
AFTERNOON SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES  
WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND  
SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S  
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND ZONAL ON SUNDAY WHICH  
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES BECOME MILDER. GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK  
SHORTWAVE ALOFT THAT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA DURING THE  
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD RESULT IN STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER  
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THEREFORE, WE SIDED WITH THE MILDER  
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOW HIGHS RISING  
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS.  
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE  
MET WHICH MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SOME PARTIAL  
CLEARING OVERNIGHT SHOULD LED TO COOL TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO  
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
WE BEGIN THE WORK/SCHOOL WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND  
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. GLOBAL AND SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER  
WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE LATER MONDAY  
WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. SO WE  
WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GENERALLY  
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR THE  
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
 
THEREAFTER, SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES QUICKLY INTO TUESDAY AS  
UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS AMPLIFIES. WE COULD BENEFIT WITH THE POSITIVE  
H850 TEMPERATURES AND DOWNSLOPING UNDER MID-APRIL SUNSHINE TO SEE  
VALLEY TEMPERATURES APPROACH 70F WITH GENERALLY 60S ELSEWHERE. COULD  
ALSO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH ENHANCE MIXING WHICH WE ACCOUNTED FOR  
WITHIN THE EXTENDED GRIDS.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS UPSTREAM AS  
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH FOR  
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND LOWER STRATUS/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL  
FOR OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE APPROACH  
OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT, AND DEPENDING IF WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE  
FURTHER, COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
MUCAPES FROM THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PROGGED TO BE INTO THE LOWER 100 J/KG  
WITH INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES. GRANTED, THIS IS FAR OUT IN THE  
EXTENDED AND PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WE WILL  
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE  
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH A RETURN  
OF SUB-ZERO H850 TEMPERATURES COULD SEE A TRANSITION OR MIXTURE OF  
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK AT OR BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY (40S AND LOWER  
50S).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A FEW STRAGGLER -SHRA CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN VICINITY OF  
TERMINALS FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE COD. THE TREND ON THIS  
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NOW  
EARLY EVENING. HI RES MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUATION OF THIS  
SCENARIO. FOR THE MOST PART WILL DEAL WITH THE ACTIVITY WITH  
VCSH. HOWEVER RADAR DEPICTING A FEW (SLIGHTLY) STRONG CELLS  
MOVING NEAR KPOU AND KPSF. SO, AT THESE LOCATIONS A TEMPO GROUP  
WILL COVER IT. AT ALL TERMINALS LOOKING AT MVFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SCATTERED  
RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT. THEN, A  
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY GIVING US A  
COOL YET DRY DAY. THEN, MILDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY  
WITH SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.  
 
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO TODAY  
RESULTED IN ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL STAY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW RANGING 5 TO 10KTS.  
MINIMUM RH VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE 50 TO  
60 PERCENT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WET SNOW AND RAINFALL COMBINED TO PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ALY HSA. DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY  
CONDITIONS, FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SMALLER CREEKS AND  
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
UPDATE...  
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE  
NEAR TERM...BGM/SPECIALE  
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE  
LONG TERM...BGM  
AVIATION...FRUGIS/OKEEFE  
FIRE WEATHER...SPECIALE  
HYDROLOGY...SPECIALE  
 
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