614
FXUS61 KALY 081018
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED AN UPWARD TREND IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY, LIKELY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FIRE SPREAD MAY BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS OVERTAKEN THE REGION, REINFORCING DRY
CONDITIONS AND DECREASED WINDS. THOUGH WE REMAIN FAIRLY CHILLY
EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES; DEEP MIXING;
AND A BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO
MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL BEGINNING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES
WILL BE LARGELY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WHICH, WITH UNOBSTRUCTED
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, SHOULD FEEL RATHER LOVELY
ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. TOMORROW, TOO, WILL
FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS, DESPITE THE CREST OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BEGINNING TO DEPART TO THE
EAST, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SURGE. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY SUBSEQUENTLY
REACH JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S AND POCKETS
OF UPPER 60S.
IT IS PERTINENT TO MENTION, HOWEVER, THAT CONDITIONS, WHILE
PLEASANT ON THURSDAY, MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD SHOULD
THERE BE ANY IGNITION. THOUGH A DECENT PORTION OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND RECEIVED SNOW AND/OR RAIN
YESTERDAY, TODAY'S VERY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP TO DRY OUT
FINE FUELS. PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER INTO THURSDAY AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DRY OUT FUELS FURTHER. THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE INCREASING WINDS. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING GRADIENT
WINDS TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF ~20-40% COMBINED WITH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
RANGING FROM ~15-25 MPH AND HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THAT SAID, THE
LIMITING FACTOR HERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED ADVANCING TROUGH ENCROACH UPON
THE REGION FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED, THERE COULD
BE MORE CLOUD COVER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IN THIS CASE, WE
MAY NOT MIX DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE NOR DRY OUT
SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE WIDESPREAD PROMOTION OF FIRE SPREAD. BUT,
IT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH AND WILL
COLLABORATE CLOSELY WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ABOUT.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERLY LOW DRIVING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS A WHOLE, BUT THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL A BIT
TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD AND
DRIVES IT THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, SO WE COULD SEE SOME RESULTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THAT SAID, A BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE ALREADY LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY INTO THIS SHORTWAVE COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT OUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ONCE AGAIN TO BRING US A
DRY WEEKEND. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS, BUT THERE
REMAIN NO THREATS FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER AT THIS TIME. IN FACT,
WE CAN ACTUALLY LOOK FORWARD TO QUITE THE WARM UP AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/THU, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5-10 KT
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET, EXCEPT REMAINING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AT 5-10 KT AT KALB, WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24
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