439
FXUS61 KALY 121103
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASED FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-90 FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS ALSO EXPANDED NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. WIND SPEED/GUSTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED FOR MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
LARGE HAIL.
3) IT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY START TO NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ARRIVING MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A PLEASANT DAY TODAY, SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND BRING RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP
MOISTURE WITH PWAT'S CLIMBING TO 1.75-2 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
SOME CAMS ALSO SUGGEST SOME MID LEVEL F-GEN ASSOCIATED NORTH OF
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FOR AREAS NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR, POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION EAST INTO THE
BERKSHIRES AND EXTREME SOUTHERN VT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
LATEST HREFS INDICATE PROBS FOR >3" RAINFALL IN 3 HOURS AT
10-30% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND NW CT DURING THE 8 AM-11 AM TIME PERIOD SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH PROBS FOR >1" IN 3 HOURS AT 70-90% IN THESE SAME
AREAS, AND AS HIGH AS 30-50% AS FAR N/W AS SCHOHARIE COUNTY, THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VT. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS SOUTH/EAST AT 2.5-3.5"/3 HOURS, SO ODDS GENERALLY FAVOR
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH MAINLY PONDING OF
WATER/NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN
AREAS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
AND THEREFORE WPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FARTHER NORTH/WEST INTO THE SE CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER THE MORNING RAINFALL, A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SW ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE TRACKING EAST/SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY EVENING. MID-LEVEL (700-500 HPA) LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO
6-6.5C/KM FOR AREAS N/W OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE NW. ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED, A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID DESTABILIZATION FROM MID
LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING FROM APPROACHING HEIGHT FALLS/COLD
FRONT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE TO UPPER LEVEL JET TRANSLATING ACROSS
ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND SPC HAS PLACED
MOST OF EASTERN NY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL
COULD LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE 60S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
IN VALLEY AREAS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS RETURN FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/SUN, PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN RESUMING
BETWEEN 13Z-14Z/SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 04Z/SUN AT KGFL AND KALB AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, THOUGH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 06Z/SUN. THEREAFTER, PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALLOW VSBYS AND CIGS TO
DROP TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53/24
AVIATION...24
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