522
FXUS61 KALY 042331
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
731 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 725 PM, CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK INTO THE AREA. LATEST
MODELS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT, SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE
FORECAST. LOW PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IF ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP. SOME LIGHT ECHOES SHOWING UP ON KENX 88D
OVER WARREN/SARATOGA COUNTIES. THERE APPEARS TO BE A CORRIDOR OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE HERE PER ASOS/NYS MESONET OBS. THERE IS ALSO
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVERTOPPING THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA. LATEST HREF/3KM NAM SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 06Z ALONG THE NORTHWAY
CORRIDOR AND TOWARD THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/BERKSHIRE
SPUR/BERKSHIRE COUNTY AREAS. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE FORECAST HERE. TEMPS ARE STILL PRETTY BALMY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES WITH THIS
UPDATE, AND SLOWED DOWN THE COOLING TREND.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL PASS WELL TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA SUNDAY RESULTING NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA SO FORCING
WILL BE WEAK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAK WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SO ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING; SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS.
HEIGHTS EXPECTED REMAIN RATHER STABLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH SOME HEIGHTS TUESDAY AS RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD IN. LOOKING A FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER, MONDAY
WILL BE THE DAY FOR SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD, RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, WE'RE WATCHING A PAIR OF
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BRING AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH A
COMPACT DISTURBANCE ZIPPING THROUGH. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW,
MORE OR LESS BETWEEN THE I-90 AND I-84 CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY BEFORE RE-
FORMING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GEFS MEMBERS SHOW GOOD
CLUSTERING WITH THE LOW TRACK AS WELL. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER,
BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE GFS/GEFS MEAN
MORE TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. ROBUST BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO BRING A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION. RAIN EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS, BUT TEMPS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP AT THE ONSET OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED IN EASTERN ONTARIO. THE FORCING
FOR THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND RELATED TO DCVA AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONT. IT'S POSSIBLE WE GET
INTO A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT DEPENDING ON THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT, THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH TIME TO REALIZE THE POTENTIAL
WARMING AT THE SURFACE. ALSO, THERE MAY BE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT,
WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF COOLER MARINE AIR. SO
WE KNOCKED DOWN THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE NBM.
A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN US.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR STRATUS HAS EXPANDED BACK OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF, BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO
RESTRICT VISIBILITY. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CEILINGS TO
HANG AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CEILINGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR FOR A TIME, ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z TONIGHT. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR FOG IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS.
SUNDAY, EXPECT CEILINGS TO PERSIST BUT ANY MVFR SHOULD RISE TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HAVE
ADDED VCSH TO THE FORECAST, BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT
THEY WILL NOT RESTRICT VISIBILITY GIVEN RATHER DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EARLY
AFTERNOON, TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT 5 TO 10 KT
SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN WITH FAIR AND MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY DOWN INTO THE
50S BELOW 1500 FEET AND GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT ABOVE 1500 FEET.
HOWEVER, MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO THE AREA. FAIR AND MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...THOMPSON
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
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