456
FXUS61 KALY 241816
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NORTH/WEST SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK WITH THE UPCOMING NOR'EASTER
THIS WEEKEND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN GREATER EXPECTED QPF, WITH
1-2" AMOUNTS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PEAK
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. THE RAINFALL IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED
TO CAUSE FLOODING THOUGH, AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
2) FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF RAINFALL WITH A NOR'EASTER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE ARE MODERATE CHANCES (45-70%) OF WIND GUSTS > 35
MPH, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED TO 1-2" SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY, FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
BRING CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE W. ADIRONDACKS TO MID
40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN IN
FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF N. CAROLINA TODAY, IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND GRADUALLY TRACK NORTH/WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING A NOR'EASTER. THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE MAY EVENTUALLY END UP ALONG OR NEAR THE LONG ISLAND TO
NJ COAST SAT INTO SUN, WHICH IS WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL
BE IN OUR REGION. FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY,
THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TRACK AND
RESULTING RAIN/WIND IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. OVERALL, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEST WITH THE STORM
TRACK. HOWEVER, IT HAS TO BE NOTED THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WITH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND GETTING INTO THE CAMS TIME WINDOW,
SOME CAMS (HRRR, NAM12, RGEM) AND SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(ECMWF, AI-ECMWF, GFS) FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY STORM TRACK
COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS AND
DETERMINISTIC CMC AND AI-GFS, WHICH ARE DISPLACED TO THE EAST.
EVEN ENSEMBLES AND AI GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST TOO.
THE TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS IN OUR
AREA. THAT BEING SAID, AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING OR WIND HEADLINES. FORECAST RAINFALL HAS INCREASED
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH AROUND 0.50-1.25" FROM AROUND
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND S. VT SOUTH AND 1.25-2.00" IN SE BERKSHIRE,
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THESE AMOUNTS THOUGH. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR > 1.0"
IN THE 48 HR PERIOD ENDING 8 AM MON HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
50-75% FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH/EAST, WITH A 20-45%
CHANCE OF > 2.00". EVEN WITH THE INCREASED QPF, ENSEMBLE RIVER
GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING ANY FLOODING FROM RAINFALL THROUGH
THE STORM, AS SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY/SUNNY WEATHER IS PRECEDING THE
STORM. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER AT POUGHKEEPSIE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
SOME URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE PONDING MAY ALSO OCCUR. SHOULD THE
STORM TRACK SHIFT FARTHER NORTHWEST AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
INCREASE, THE THREAT OF MORE HYDRO IMPACTS WOULD INCREASE.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE NORTH/WEST PERIPHERY OF
THE COASTAL STORM FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN STEADILY. NOTING A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION
IN THE 3000-5000 FT LAYER FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT NEAR OR ABOVE THE INVERSION LEVEL. SO
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS NOT ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH FREQUENT GUSTS
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED IN THE FRI-SUN TIMEFRAME
MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR > 35 MPH GUSTS ARE 45-70% FROM THE E. CATSKILLS INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF W. MA, NW. CT AND THE RENSSELAER PLATEAU. THE
PROBABILITY FOR MORE IMPACTFUL GUSTS OF > 45 MPH ARE MUCH LOWER
AT 5-20% IN SOME OF THESE SAME AREAS, SO WIND ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN ON MON, BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER
EAST. ALSO WITH THE THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER THE REGION,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH JUST SOME FEW/SCT PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE BRIEF PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG THAT
COULD DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AT KGFL LOWERING VSBYS TO
MVFR/IFR. THIS POSSIBILITY IS SHOWN IN A TEMPO GROUP. CLOUDS
ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL STILL MOSTLY BE HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT, ESPECIALLY IN
MORE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR KPOU BEFORE DECREASING AFTER SUNSET
BECOMING LIGHT 5 KT OR LESS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS AT
2,000 FT AGL NEAR KPOU TO BE NEAR 35 KT FROM ABOUT 07Z TO 12Z,
WHICH WITH GENERALLY CALM WINDS AT THE SFC, COULD RESULT IN WIND
SHEAR. SEEMED TO BE TOO BORDERLINE TO EXPLICITLY WRITE IN THE
TAFS BUT WANTED TO MENTION HERE. AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS 10-15KT ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS AND GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT AT KPOU AND KPSF (KALB AND KGFL SLIGHTLY LESS
10-15 KT) TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
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