095
FXUS61 KALY 010641
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
241 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT ON THURSDAY HAVE INCREASED. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES.
2) ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS LOOK TO BE LOW AT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME BEING LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT
IMPACTING LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THESE COUNTIES. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGES ON LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS SUCH AS THE WEST CANADA CREEK
AT HINCKLEY AND SACANDAGA RIVER AT HOPE CONTINUE TO BE
FORECASTED TODAY BY THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER. WITH
ONLY ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5
INCHES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FLOODING CONCERNS DECREASE TONIGHT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
HIGH RIVER FLOWS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A DREARY DAY IN STORE WITH OVERCAST
SKIES AND MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE RAIN FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
LOCATIONS FOR THIS EXCEPTION ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS, WHERE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN, THEN A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CAN OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THIS MORNING FORECAST HAS INCREASED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.1 INCHES
AND 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT. FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, ICE ACCUMULATIONS
CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.01 INCHES AND 0.1 INCHES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON NON-PAVEMENT SURFACES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHEST TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS THURSDAY MORNING.TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE
LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 60%. WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LESS A QUARTER INCH,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IMPACTS TO OCCUR FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOR THIS WEEKEND, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
RETURN AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON FRIDAY. FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
FORECAST TIME ARE LOW AS PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING TO BE LIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 70S, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE RAIN THIS WEEKEND. LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES
ARE SUPPORTING FOR SATURDAY TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS SHAPING UP TO BE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING OFF TO THE
EAST OF OUR REGION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALB/PSF AND VFR AT
GFL/POU. SHOWERS WITH LINGERING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.
THEN, COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CIGS DROPPING BACK
DOWN TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE AT GFL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE
TAF. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, CIGS SHOULD TREND BACK TO
MAINLY VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT. SHOWERS WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT POU FROM EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR ALB/PSF, HAVE JUST INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF GFL THROUGH
06Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS MORNING, THEN VEER THE THE N/NE AT
5-10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET, WITH WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...35
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