433
FXUS61 KALY 222325
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LOWERED THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS.
FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, DUE TO WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 5 TO 10
MPH, CLOUDS INCREASING, AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES, CHANCES FOR
PATCHY FROST HAVE LOWERED TO LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF OCCURRING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH A VERY LOW
RISK FOR FLOODING IMPACTS.
2) WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE START TIMING FOR THIS WEEKEND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THEN IN THE
EVENING HOURS SATURDAY, FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST, 24-HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO RANGE TO BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ENDING
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS WHERE TOTALS CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL, BUT A DREARY SUNDAY AND
BEGINNING TO MEMORIAL DAY IS IN STORE. WITH A STEADY LIGHT TO
PERIODICALLY MODERATE RAINFALL, ANY FLOODING CONCERNS ARE VERY
LOW AT THIS FORECAST TIME. WHILE THE MORNING HOURS ON MEMORIAL
DAY HAVE MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HEAD EASTWARD, CONDITIONS
BECOME DRIER FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE TO BE LOWERED FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AS IT STRUGGLES TO CATCH-UP WITH LATEST ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES AND FORECAST TRENDS OF OVERCAST SKIES
AND VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE DUE TO THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S. A
CHILLY WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
CURRENT FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS HOW WARM WE GET
IN THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THIS COULD BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
MUCH DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HAS
HIGH TEMPERATURES THREE TO FIVE DEGREES TOO WARM ABOVE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES AND WITH COORDINATION, TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AND FAVORED
FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WE'LL SEE SEASONAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM
OUR NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN
AND LOWER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS RAIN SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN BEGINS AT KPOU AROUND 18Z/SAT AND AT
KALB/KPSF TOWARD 00Z/SUN. RAIN WILL BEGIN AT KGFL AFTER
00Z/SUN. KPOU WILL BE THE ONLY SITE FAVORED TO HAVE FLYING
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR PRIOR TO 00Z/SUN. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT ON
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...33
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