788
FXUS61 KALY 102330
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, NORTHEAST CATSKILLS AND HELDERBERGS, LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION, SOUTHERN VT AND RENSSELAER PLATEAU WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH AREAS OF FROST (INCLUDING FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCES) EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 TONIGHT, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COOLER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE
UNDERWAY BY MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EASTERN NY EXCEPT FOR THE
SW ADIRONDACKS, AS WELL AS ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, NE CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE COUNTY, LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND EASTERN RENSSELAER COUNTY AND MOST OF
SOUTHER VT TONIGHT, WHERE FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. A
FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE AREAS COULD DROP TO AROUND
OR JUST UNDER FREEZING. EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE
REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR SOME FREEZE
WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS LOW TEMPS DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OTHER THAN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND AMPLIFIES, LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALONG NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST, THEN DEPENDING
ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES, COULD ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSFORM INTO AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST BEFORE EVENTUALLY PIVOTING FARTHER
OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A WHILE AT KPOU/KPSF THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START TO MONDAY, MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE GROUND. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND 5-10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AT
KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
3-6 KT BY 04Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FROST.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047-048-051-054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...12/24
AVIATION...07
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