601
FXUS61 KALY 181812
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ISSUED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY DUE TO
A STRONG SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH
OF OLD FORGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING, MANY FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOWFALL FROM BOTH
LAKE EFFECT AND PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEMS. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN
DIFFICULT TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WELL OFF THE COAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND IT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT, PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONG JET STREAK ALOFT HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING. SPOTTER REPORTS SHOW A GENERAL
COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO HAS FALLEN THIS MORNING, MAINLY FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH AND EAST. RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
CAMS SUGGEST THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER
AND MORE INTERMITTENT FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STEADIER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME SHOWING EXACTLY
HOW FAR WEST THIS STEADY ROUND OF PRECIP WILL GET, BUT RECENT
RUNS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY BE A GOOD
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY GET AS FAR
NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT, BUT THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES, TACONICS AND NW CT.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM A COATING TO
AN INCH IN THE CAPITAL REGION TO ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THIS WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH TO MAKE THINGS SLIPPERY ONCE AGAIN AFTER YESTERDAY'S AND
THIS MORNING'S LIGHT SNOWFALL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 4 AM, ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR FROM ABOUT 5 PM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE POURING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. AS THE BITTER COLD AIR MASS MOVES
INTO THE REGION, A STRONG SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE IMPACTING PARTS OF THE REGION
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, MAINLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF OLD FORGE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW, WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND FOR AREAS NEAR STILLWATER
RESERVOIR FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY
EXCEED 1-2" PER HOUR WITHIN THE STRONGEST PART OF THE BAND. IT
SHOULD DROP INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY ON MONDAY EVENING AND
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BEFORE STARTING TO RETRACT BACK CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
COULD GET INTO THE MODERATE SNOWFALL AS WELL, SO AN ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED THERE ON THE INLAND EXTENT.
WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -20 C, IT WILL BE RATHER COLD
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
MANY AREAS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ON TUESDAY. WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT (WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30 MPH), IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER AND SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. FOR NOW, IT MAY STAY JUST ABOVE
COLD ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BUT MODELS ARE ALREADY SUGGESTING AN EVEN COLDER SHOT OF FRIGID
ARCTIC AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH IT'S QUITE A
WAYS OUT, WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF NEEDING COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
BY THAT TIME. MORE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
WEEK AND WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AS WELL, ALTHOUGH MODEL
RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN WILDLY DIFFERENT FROM RUN
TO RUN AT THIS TIME, LEAVING THIS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A VARIETY OF FLYING CONDITIONS START THE TAF PERIOD. KGFL CONTINUES
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. FOR KALB, LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH 06Z THEN PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 12Z
THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN. FOR KPOU AND KPSF, LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL WITH CONDITIONS RANGING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ054-060-
061-063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page