439
FXUS61 KALY 211842
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STRONG NOR'EASTER STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WINTER STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS (EASTERN
CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND
NW CT). HAVE ALSO ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CAPITAL
REGION DUE TO EXPECTED MODERATE SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
BORDERLINE BETWEEN ADVISORY AND WARNING LEVELS IN SOUTHERN VT,
NORTHERN TACONICS, HELDERBERGS AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY, SO HAVE
GONE WITH A WATCH THERE FOR NOW AND WILL MAKE HEADLINE DECISION
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES CLOSER TO THE EVENT. FOR AREAS WHERE THE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT, HEAVY SNOWFALL, COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS,
WILL MAKE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITY. SOME
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO HEAVY WET SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A HIGH IMPACT NOR'EASTER WILL BRING HEAVY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS, VERY LOW VISIBILITY, AND POSSIBLE
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT, IT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND CLOSING OFF AT 500 HPA. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, IT WILL
CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND DEEPEN FOR SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW GETS CAPTURED, IT WILL SLOWLY
TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE PASS SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BOMBING OUT AND DROP TO AROUND A 970 HPA LOW
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EXACT TRACK, THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SUGGEST
A TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
REACH INLAND. AT THIS POINT, PRECIP LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SUNDAY. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW MAY
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND REALLY PICK UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
BANDING MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STRONG STORM
SYSTEM WITH A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A PIVOTING BAND ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STEADY SNOWFALL MONDAY MORNING,
BEFORE IT STARTS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RATES ARE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS,
WHERE RATES WITHIN THE SNOWBAND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1" PER HOUR.
WITH SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AND EXPECTED STRONG WINDS, SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS MAY BE CLOSE TO CLIMO (AROUND 12:1), ALTHOUGH
BRIEF HIGHER RATIOS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY.
WHILE A FEW DAYS AGO, MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGESTED
LITTLE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN OUR AREA, THERE HAS BEEN
A DRASTIC SHIFT AND NOW MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST HEAVY SNOWFALL
REACHING INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY,
TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. NBM PROBABILITY FOR 8" OF SNOW
IS 60-90% FOR THOSE AREAS AND EVEN THE 12" PROBABILITY IS
40%-80%. THERE IS EVEN DECENT SUPPORT FOR GREATER THAN 18"
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND NW CT, WITH PROBABILITIES AROUND 40%
FOR THOSE AREAS. ALL IN ALL, THE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS IMPACTS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING A BIG IMPACT.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE AND JUST HOW
FAR SNOWFALL (AND HEAVY SNOWFALL) WILL GET. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
COASTAL NOR'EASTERS, THERE IS USUALLY A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN
EXCESSIVELY HIGH TOTALS AND LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL. THE JANUARY
2016 BLIZZARD IS A SIMILAR AND CLASSIC EXAMPLE, WHERE
POUGHKEEPSIE (WHICH WAS FORECASTED TO RECEIVE OVER A FOOT OF
SNOWFALL) SAW LITTLE SNOWFALL, WHILE NEWBURGH SAW AROUND A FOOT
AND NYC WAS CLOSE TO TWO FEET. MODEL GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY
BLENDED GUIDANCE) USUALLY DOES A POOR JOB AT RESOLVING THIS AND
AS A RESULT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARPER GRADIENT THAN WHAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
FORECASTED AROUND 4-6" IN THE CAPITAL REGION, WITH 9+" IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. THIS MAY BE SHARPER, ALTHOUGH IT'S STILL
UNCERTAIN WHERE THAT GRADIENT WILL SET UP AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE ALBANY AREA COULD BE HIGHER (OR LOWER).
HAVE GONE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR NOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION, AS
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT IN THE GUIDANCE FOR A
WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN TACONICS, HELDERBERGS, SCHOHARIE COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN VT, AS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE THESE AREAS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE, ALLOWING FOR LOW-END WARNING LEVEL TOTALS, IF
THE NORTHERN EDGE SETS UP CLOSE ENOUGH. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE AND MAKE DECISIONS ON THESE NORTHERN
AREAS. WPC WSO SUGGEST A 30-50% CHANCE FOR WARNING-LEVEL SNOW
ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT, ALTHOUGH THE
50-80% CONFIDENCE ZONE IS ALSO VERY CLOSE.
THE OTHER IMPACT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS. WITH SUCH A STRONG COASTAL STORM, NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE RATHER STRONG FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME GUSTS COULD REACH 30-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH PEAKS
OF THE CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS, BERKSHIRES AND IN NW CT. IN
ADDITION TO VERY LOW VISIBILITY WITHIN FALLING SNOW, SOME
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE WET NATURE OF THE
SNOWFALL COULD REDUCE THIS SOMEWHAT. STILL, THESE GUSTS MAY BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS, RESULTING IN SOME POSSIBLE
POWER OUTAGES AS WELL, MAINLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE SNOWSTORM IN LATE
JANUARY WILL BE THAT TEMPERATURES WON'T BE BRUTALLY COLD LIKE IN
THAT EVENT. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S DURING THIS STORM. STILL, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER AND THE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IT
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE OUTDOORS DURING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME DURING THIS EVENT. TEMPS WILL DROP FOR MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM, WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH WIND STILL FAIRLY
BREEZY AT THAT TIME, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH ZERO FOR
MANY AREAS (ESPECIALLY THE HIGH TERRAIN).
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS DECK
OVERHEAD AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE/MIST AROUND
ALBANY AND PITTSFIELD. THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR, PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS,
THOUGH SOME PATCHY, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT COULD DROP
VISIBILITY INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. THESE, OF COURSE, PRECEDE THE
WIDESPREAD, STRATIFORM SNOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT NOR'EASTER, BUT THE ONSET OF THIS SNOW
WILL FALL OUTSIDE OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE FOR EVERYONE EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY KPOU. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. LIKELY SN...BS.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. LIKELY SN...BS.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ058>061-063>066.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ047-048-051-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ049-050-052-053.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...12
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