809
FXUS61 KALY 212330
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SQUALLS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF I-90.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE WINTER STORM
TRACK FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE FOR AMOUNTS 7 INCHES OR HIGHER HAVE INCREASED TO 50 TO
70% ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A SOUTH
TO NORTH SNOWFALL GRADIENT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SQUALLS TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH CAN RESULT IN
SLIPPERY TRAVEL AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DANGEROUS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE.
3) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS FROM A
WINTER STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER TRACKING THROUGH CANADA
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF SNOW ALREADY
UNDERWAY IN WEST/CENTRAL NY WHICH ARE TRACKING NORTH AND WEST.
EXPECTING SNOW TO SPREAD IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK
VALLEY, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN VT AND EVEN PARTS OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THE
INCOMING LOW AND MID JET BECOME DIRECTED ALONG THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS THROUGH THIS EVENING, SNOWFALL RATES WILL
LIKELY BECOME MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY REACHING 0.5 - 1.5 INCHES
PER HOUR AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE. SNOWFALL RATES
WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL JET VEER
TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION AS WE ENTER
INTO THE RESPECTIVE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD
FOLLOW A NON-DIRUANL TREND WITH LOWEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING
THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
MORNING. OVERALL, EXPECTING 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12 UTC THURSDAY WITH
2 TO 5 IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS. COATING TO 1 INCHES EXPECTED FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE
FOOTHILL OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES TOWARDS EASTERN NY RATHER
EARLY TOMORROW WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY GENERATING WEAK LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THERE IS NOW GROWING CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON, AND MOHAWK VALLEY BY 12 - 15 UTC
BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT BY 15 - 18
UTC. DESPITE THESE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARRIVING RATHER
EARLY IN THE DAY, THE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR SNOW SQUALL SEEM
TO BE IN PLAY WITH THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER HIGHLIGHT AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH 18 UTC LINING UP WITH THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS LOOK TO WEAKEN
AS THEY TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
THEY OUTRUN THE BEST FORCING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST DURING ANY SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL WITH INCOMING COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEEPENING THE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND SUPPORTING GUSTY
WINDS REACHING 30 TO 40MPH. WHILE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS PEAK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND THEN
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING, GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ALREADY
BE BELOW FREEZING GIVEN THE RECENT COLD SO A FLASH FREEZE IS
UNLIKELY. EVEN STILL, BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS CAN RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY
DURING ANY SNOW SQUALLS AND MORE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SO
FAR WILL SWEEP INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AND ARCTIC FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCOMING FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUAL BE
TO OUR WEST AS AN IMPRESSIVE 1050 HPA HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WHILE FRIDAY STARTS OFF CHILLY, THE
TRUE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST AND WE ACTUALLY
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S (EVEN NEAR 30 IN THE MID- HUDSON
VALLEY) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND
ARCTIC FRONT SWINGS THROUGH CLOSER TO 18 - 00 UTC. ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG OR RIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT
OVERALL MOISTURE IS EVEN MORE LIMITED SO LIMITED POP TO CHANCE
AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND
WEST. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WHILE WINDS WILL ALREADY BE BREEZY, THEY
WERE WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER AS THE BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS
SURGES EASTWARD AND THE MIXED LAYER DEEPENS.
IMPRESSIVELY, THE 925 - 850 HPA ISOTHERMS RANGING FROM -25C TO -30C
PLUNGE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE
CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40MPH OVERNIGHT WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS 50 TO 80% CHANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
BELOW 0 FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND (EXCEPT
IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THE CHANCE IS LESS THAN 25%). IN
FACT, THERE IS A 30 TO 60% CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DROP BELOW -20F! NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE COMBINATION OF SUCH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASED RISK FOR HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE AS WIND CHILLS OR
THE "FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES DROP TO -15F TO -30F. GIVEN THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE, EXTREME COLD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS FROM 00 UTC TO 18 UTC
SAT WHERE CONFIDENCE IN REACHING -30F WIND CHILLS IS HIGHEST.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE REGION. BOTTOM LINE, STAY INDOORS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND AVOID ANY UNNECESSARY EXPOSURE TO THE OUTDOORS.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BREEZY SATURDAY MORNING SUPPORTING
CONTINUED DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SO CONTINUED TO AVOID
UNNECESSARY TIME OUTSIDE. OUR 1045 HPA HIGH SLIDES INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON, MAINTAINING THE NORTHWEST
WIND TRAJECTORY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BUT WEAKENING THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
EVEN THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING, THE HEART OF OUR ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
BE OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM. IN FACT,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE) THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 DEGREES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
WINDS, EVEN A LIGHT WIND ALONGSIDE SUCH FRIGID TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED EVEN DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/HILL TOWNS. WINDS TURN EVEN LIGHTER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND WHILE WIND CHILLS WILL BE LESS OF A
CONCERN, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN
A 50 TO 80% CHANCE THAT LOWS FALL BELOW 0 AGAIN (LESS THAN 20%
CHANCE MID-HUDSON VALLEY) BUT WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS
CONCERNING AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
BESIDES DANGEROUS COLD, YET ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND BE DIRECTED INTO NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REACH
THE EXTREME CLASSIFICATION GIVEN THE ARCTIC COLD BLAST OVER THE
LAKE ONTARIO WATERS, LIKELY SUPPORT HIGH SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THESE EXTREME INSTABILITY CASES TEND TO LIMIT THE
EASTWARD EXTEND SO LESS CONFIDENCE THAT THE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
EXTEND INTO HAMILTON COUNTY. WHILE THE INITIAL FLOW WILL DIRECT
THE BAND MAINLY NORTH OF OLD FORGE THURS P.M/EVENING, THE MEAN
LAYER FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
ALLOWING THE BAND TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO ROUTE 28 AND OLD
FORGE. ONCE THE MAIN ARCTIC FRONT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, THE MAIN
BAND WILL BECOME DISRUPTED AND WEAKEN BUT STILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AND THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS FROM
A WINTER STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH
WINTER STORM WATCHES ALREADY IN EFFECT, THERE WAS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW THE STORM WOULD TRACK ONCE IT REACHED THE EAST
COAST. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMMED FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
THE ROCKIES AND IF AND WHEN IT WOULD PHASE WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST SUGGESTS THAT PHASING DOES TAKE PLACE,
AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM RIDING OFF THE EAST COAST JUST IN TIME FOR
THE WINTER STORM TO TRACK NORTH/WEST CLOSER TO THE NJ/LONG
ISLAND COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE OTHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY REMAINS WEAKER AND THEREFORE DOES NOT PHASE.
THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WHICH WOULD ALLOW OUR WINTER STORM TO ESCAPE TO OUR
SOUTH/EAST. WHILE THESE TWO SCENARIOS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE,
THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST SCENARIO OCCURRING WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MODERATE WINTER STORM IMPACTS
FOR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, THE DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS AND THERE REMAIN DISAGREEMENTS ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE PHASING WHICH WILL IMPACT WHEN WE CAN
EXPECT THE WORST IMPACTS AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SNOW BANDS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE THIS STORM IS STILL FOUR DAYS
AWAY, THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON THE
OVERALL STORM TRACK WHICH GIVENS US INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO
MESSAGE AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS AT THIS LEAD TIME. THE
PROBABILISTIC WSSI FROM WPC HIGHLIGHTS 60 TO 80% CHANCE FOR
MODERATE IMPACTS OR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS AREAS
FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN A 60% CHANCE FOR MAJOR IMPACTS OR
CONSIDERABLE DISRUPTIONS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GIVEN THE STORM TRACK NOW FAVORS CROSSING NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK, SUCH A TRACK SUPPORTS A SOUTH TO NORTH
SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-90. IN
FACT, THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 50 TO 70% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 7 INCHES OF SNOW (WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA)
FOCUSED THERE. IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO BE ON THE ROAD SUNDAY OR
MONDAY, CONSIDER MAKING ALTERNATIVE PLANS AS THERE IS GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. LUCKILY,
THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STILL BE PLACE AHEAD OF AND
DURING THIS STORM WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
ALL SNOW AND SUPPORT HIGHER THAN NORMAL SLRS OR A LIGHT/FLUFFY
SNOW TYPE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AROUND 4-6 KFT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM,
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SHELTERED
AREAS (SUCH AS KPOU AND KGFL) ARE SEEING LIGHTER WINDS, THE
LARGER VALLEY AREAS AROUND KALB IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS,
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WHERE SURFACE
WINDS STAY LIGHT (SUCH AS NEAR KPOU) AS 2 KFT WINDS WILL BE
30-40 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AS THE CLIPPER APPROACHES, SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND 04Z-07Z AND AGAIN ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND
08Z-12Z. THESE WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT KGFL AND KALB, BUT KPSF
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR IMPACTS AS WELL. BASED ON HIRES
GUIDANCE, KPOU SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AVOID THIS
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS, VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR
LEVELS, WITH VISIBILITY 1-2SM AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO 1500-3000
FT. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AND PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBLE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS.
AFTER DAYBREAK, THE STORM'S COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH,
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY WESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING, ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON, WHEN SOME GUSTS WILL BE
OVER 25 KTS AGAIN (MAINLY FOR KALB). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD, SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. STILL, ANY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILING. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT BY LATE THURSDAY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
CLIMATE
JANUARY 24
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
ALBANY, NY: -1 DEGREES SET IN 1882
GLENS FALLS, NY: 0 DEGREES SET IN 1907
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1948
RECORD COLD LOW TEMPERATURES:
ALBANY, NY: -17 DEGREES SET IN 1948
GLENS FALLS, NY: -30 DEGREES SET IN 2011
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: -15 DEGREES SET IN 1961
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
082.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...27
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page