102
FXUS61 KALY 111838
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
2) TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
3) LOW CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
SUPPORTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. BY LATE TONIGHT, TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS AND
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES COULD OCCUR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. LIGHT SNOW RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK BRINGING
A LIGHT COATING/TRACE OF SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWS COULD BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE,
COULD HELP CONTRIBUTE TO OUR NEXT LOW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCES ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP, BUT ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW. THERE ARE TWO
PRIMARY SCENARIOS THAT COULD HAPPEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY:
SCENARIO NUMBER 1: THE COASTAL LOW STAYS OUT TO SEA AND WE SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDESPREAD DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FAVORED BY LATEST FORECAST MODEL TRENDS.
SCENARIO NUMBER 2: THE COASTAL LOW STAYS CLOSER TO ALONG THE
COAST FOR LOW CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THEN LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EXACT TIMING, AMOUNTS, AND TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME TO SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE COASTAL
LOW. NEVERTHELESS, CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY, THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH AND LAKE MOISTURE WILL BRING ABUNDANT CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE
TAF SITES, VSBYS/CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR/IFR AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KGFL, KALB AND KPSF BETWEEN ROUGHLY 21Z/WED
AND 03Z/THU AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LATER THIS EVENING,
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY STILL
OCCUR AT KPSF INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KT, STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AT
KALB AND KPSF. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 5-10
KT BY LATE THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KPSF AND POSSIBLY KALB. ON THURSDAY, WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-
20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...24
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