901
FXUS61 KALY 202352
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH 50S ABOVE 2000 FEET. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
RETURN FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 752 PM EDT...A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NW PA, WITH ANTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW
ALONG THE STORM'S OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES OF NY.
MEANWHILE, THE STORM'S WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OUT AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE-
SARATOGA REGION, WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CHILLY
ACROSS THE GLENS FALLS AREA. MEANWHILE, THE STORM'S COLD FRONT
HAS BEEN SWEEPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HAS SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH JUST SOUTHERN VT LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW
WARM SECTOR AT THIS TIME.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES . THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN AREAS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD, WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, DRIER AIR AT
LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE
LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LINGERING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH OUR REGION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND STILL TOO FAR AWAY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, FORCING FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE LACKING
OVERNIGHT, SO IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE PASSING OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES, BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FOR MOST AREAS. WITH A LIGHT BREEZE AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN, THIS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, SHELTERED
VALLEYS COULD LOCALLY SEE SOME FOG, AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAIN COULD GET TRAPPED WITHIN SOME OF THE
TIGHTER TERRAIN FEATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY
THEN BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHEN SOME. THIS IN
TURN WILL BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
MILD TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 60S WITH 50S FOR AREAS
MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FEET AND LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE 40S.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY
SHIFTING THE NORTH MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
FOLLOWED BY BRIEF DRY PERIODS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A RAPIDLY TRANSLATING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LOW APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS NORTH OF I-90. BRIEF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO THE
REGION. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY
QUICKLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
RESULTING IN A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY SEEING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S, WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FALLING INTO THE 30S ON SOME NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH BKN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE. SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE AT KGFL, BUT THIS LOOKS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY, AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND BRINGS
SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING AND
DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS, THEY SHOULD LOWER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON SUNDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES
WILL BE SCT-BKN AROUND 10 KFT THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH A STRAY
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE, COVERAGE LOOKS FAIRLY
LOW AND IT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS
MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELED SINCE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS ENDED. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS RETURN FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
FLOOD WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE WITH MINOR FLOODING BEING REPORTED
BETWEEN HINCKLEY AND HERKIMER, THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK,
THE SACANDAGA AT HOPE, THE HUDSON RIVER NORTH CREEK, HADLEY AND
FORT EDWARD.
PLEASE VISIT OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/
WEB PAGE FOR SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECASTS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...CEBULKO
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
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