936  
FXUS61 KALY 161042  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THIS FRONT  
WILL USHER IN THE CHILLIEST AIR MASS OF THE FALL SEASON, WITH A  
WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 634 AM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE  
REGION AND IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE  
STRONG STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO  
QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, WHILE IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS. AS  
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST,  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO RELAX AND GUSTY WINDS WILL  
BE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING.  
 
ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO SEE A LOT OF  
PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEY WILL  
BE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE  
NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL  
ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE MOISTURE TO AID IN PRODUCING SOME STRAOTCU  
CLOUDS FOR THE DAY TODAY, SO SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY  
SUNNY, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE-  
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY  
OR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING, BUT THE BULK OF THIS  
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  
 
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MID  
40S TO MID 50S. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN  
AREAS, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS  
THE GREAT LAKES FOR TONIGHT. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH  
THE REGION TONIGHT, THE FLOW WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE WEST TO  
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE FORCING STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST, IT  
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE  
OUT A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY OVER THE  
ADIRONDACKS, AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE  
INCREASING WITH A LIGHT BREEZE IN PLACE. TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO  
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S THIS EVENING AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR  
MOST OF THE NIGHT.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINTER-LIKE SHORTWAVE TROUGH,  
WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT, SHARP COLD POOL ALOFT, AND A POTENT  
JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF VORTICITY AT 500 HPA. MOISTURE  
WILL BE LIMITED, SO PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LOOKS FAIRLY  
SCATTERED. IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT AIDED BY AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE  
ONTARIO AND IN UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS, BUT NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL  
SEE SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH  
FALLING TEMPS AND GUSTING WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT FOR  
LATER IN THE DAY. EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID  
40S TO MID 50S.  
 
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW 850 HPA  
TO FALL TO -6 TO -10 DEGREES C FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST  
LOCATIONS WILL BE CLEARING OUT, ALTHOUGH WEST TO NORTHWEST  
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY. DESPITE THE WIND, TEMPS WILL FALL  
QUICKLY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. MOST AREAS WILL  
SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST AND EVEN A FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  
WILL NEED A FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING FOR AREAS WHERE THE  
GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING (HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER  
LITCHFIELD CT).  
 
IN ADDITION, THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW A BAND OF LAKE-  
EFFECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON WED EVENING AND  
CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT. INITIALLY, WESTERLY FLOW WILL ORIENT  
THIS BAND OVER THE WESTERN ADK/MOHAWK VALLEY, BUT AS THE FLOW  
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING  
TROUGH, THE BAND WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND  
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. WITH LAKE TEMPS STILL AROUND +13 C, THIS  
WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY, WHICH SHOULD  
ALLOW FOR A STREAM OF HEAVY, CELLULAR ACTIVITY. AT FIRST, THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ONLY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT AS IT COOLS  
OFF, THIS SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF UP  
TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AND GRASSY,  
NON-PAVED SURFACES ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER  
THIS BAND.  
 
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE LAKE-BAND WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST  
CENTRAL NY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR  
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION  
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE  
SUN, TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD FOR MID-OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN  
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE IN PLACE, IT  
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON  
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND CONTINUED DRY  
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ONCE AGAIN,  
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY. THE  
PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES HOWEVER A  
COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE  
WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 
ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION WHILE  
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION  
HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AFTER A  
COLD AND BLUSTERY THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE  
APPROACH WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY  
NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS  
THE SYSTEM'S STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND A  
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AS MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES DIVE  
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ESPECIALLY TO THE  
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF  
SOUTHERN VERMONT. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE  
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  
 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE BE  
USHERED BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE ONLY  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S; 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL. WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, RAIN AND SNOW, SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE REGION WITH  
LESSER BUT CONTINUING CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE REGION  
IS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF  
CENTRAL CANADA REINFORCING THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE BRISK TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO  
AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING  
AND SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE  
NORTHWEST.  
 
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, 12Z/WEDNESDAY.  
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER BACK ON THE  
INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT, IT WILL BE DRIER TODAY WITH A  
PARTLY SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO  
50 TO 65 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.  
RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE  
COULD BE A PASSING RAIN SHOWER, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY  
LIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10  
TO 25 MPH BY LATE IN THE DAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WEEK.  
 
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS  
FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WON'T PRODUCE MUCH RAIN  
SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY,  
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL  
BE VERY LIGHT.  
 
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS  
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS  
LONG TERM...IAA  
AVIATION...IAA  
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS  
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS  
 
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