750
FXUS61 KALY 012326
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 10
AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT,
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS, BERKSHIRE COUNTY.
IN EASTERN NEW YORK, THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, HELDERBERGS,
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS(FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES) CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND.
2) BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
3) A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH MINOR IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -10F IN
THE COLDEST HIGHER TERRAINS SPOTS TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. WITH
THE STRONG OCEAN STORM OFF THE COAST, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST, SO MINIMUM WIND CHILLS(FEELS-LIKE) TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE. THIS RESULTS IN COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE MON MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE TIME TO WARM ON MON, BUT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH THE UPPER 10S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30F IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AS THE OCEAN STORM PULLS FARTHER AWAY. SO IT WILL NOT
FEEL QUITE AS COLD AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK,
ALTHOUGH NOT AS FRIGID AS THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO INVADE FRI NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM. NAEFS ALREADY INDICATING 850
MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 STDEV, WITH ANOTHER
BITTERLY COLD WEEKEND EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, WHICH
WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS(FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) QUITE COLD AGAIN.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME COLD WARNINGS LOOK
PROBABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LARGE/STRONG OCEAN STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE WELL OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-35 MPH
INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. THESE GUSTS WILL BE MOST COMMON
FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND E. CATSKILLS SOUTH/EAST INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE WINDS WILL BE
RESULTING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS(FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA TUE-WED, THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD (LIGHT)
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED FAST MOVEMENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE, ONLY MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK RATHER LIGHT, WITH THE NBM 24-HR PROBABILITIES ENDING 7 AM
SAT SHOWING A 20-40% CHANCE FOR > 1" OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AND ONLY A 5-15% CHANCE FOR > 3" OF SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS
OF 6:20 PM EST, WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS ARE
NOT PRESENT TONIGHT, AND WHILE FEW TO POSSIBLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN
2000-3000 FT CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT ALB BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND AT GFL
AFTER MIDNIGHT, NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO FORM TONIGHT. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME LOCALIZED FREEZING FOG/MIST AT GFL LATE
TONIGHT IF WINDS GO CALM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE AT AROUND 5-10 KT FROM THE N/NW THIS EVENING,
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS BY 06Z AT ALB/GFL/POU BUT
REMAINING AT 5-10 KT AT PSF. TOMORROW, WINDS INCREASE BACK TO 5-10
KT AT ALB/POU/PSF WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KT. WINDS REMAIN AT
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AT GFL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED IN LLWS
AT POU/PSF THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH A 30-40 KT N/NW
LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINING OVERHEAD AS A COASTAL STORM PULLS AWAY FROM
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ051-054-058-061-063>066.
MA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35
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