377
FXUS61 KALY 041802
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT IMPACTS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK (5-14%) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
VALLEY LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND LOW 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW, HUMIDITY (MUGGINESS) WILL NOT BE
A FACTOR INTO HOW HOT IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL OUTSIDE AS IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. FOR TOMORROW, CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO BE THE
WARMEST LOCATION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-90S. BUT WITH THE
HELP OF THE LOW DEWPOINTS, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKE
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE IN THE LOW TO MID-90S. HOWEVER,
FOR SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES, DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE MID-90S BEFORE INCREASING
CLOUDS ARRIVE. THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY COULD HAVE HEAT IMPACTS DUE
TO THE FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S, BUT WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS IF ANY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
NEVERTHELESS, IT'LL BE WARM OUTSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO STAY COOL, HYDRATED, AND WHEN
WORKING OUTDOORS TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGION BRINGING MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON FORECAST TRENDS, WE COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DEVELOP. AT THIS
FORECAST TIME, THERE IS A LOW RISK BETWEEN 5 AND 14% FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION
OF DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS,
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS WITH ANY DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS FOR STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY, WE'RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
SUCH AS FLASH FLOODING. MINOR PONDING OF WATER IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS COULD OCCUR. BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DIMINISHES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KGFL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. FOR KGFL, PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BRIEFLY IFR WHICH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED IN TEMPO GROUP. WINDS TODAY CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT KPOU. FOR KPSF, KALB, AND KGFL, WINDS CONTINUE TO
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS PERIODICALLY BETWEEN 15
AND 25 KNOTS AT KALB THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z, WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...23
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