074
FXUS61 KALY 072344
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MENTIONING THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING TONIGHT. /15
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE SHOWERS ENDED WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF VALLEY MIST AND FOG
DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BEGINNING TOMORROW, THOUGH
LOWER HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW DANGEROUS LEVELS
IN MOST PLACES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
3) THE NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY
FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM CAPE COD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY TO AREAS OF
RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG WILL FORM WITH CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES, RECENT
WET GROUND AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SWIFTLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM TONIGHT, REINFORCING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
THAT SAID, HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOW ENOUGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AS TO NOT POSE ANY RISKS OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. A FEW DEGREES WORTH OF WARMING THURSDAY
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY CHALLENGE OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
PARTICULARLY THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST. IN FACT, THE
LATEST LREF INDICATES A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE FOR HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 95F THURSDAY. SEASONABLE TO JUST ABOVE
SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY AND
POTENTIALLY FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSIONS. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY. AND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 25-30KT OF BULK
SHEAR HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THU...VFR CONDITIONS OPEN THE TAF CYCLE FOR KALB-
KGFL WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT 3.5-4 KFT AND KPOU/KPSF ARE
MVFR WITH CIGS IN THE 1.5-3.0 KFT AGL RANGE WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS RECENTLY ENDING. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG FIRST
FORMING AT KGFL BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/WED, AND THEN KALB/KPOU BETWEEN
06Z-09Z/WED AND KPSF 03Z-07Z/WED. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE MIST/FOG AT ALL THE TAF
SITES ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z/WED, AND THEN AN IMPROVEMENT
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/WED WITH THE MIST/FOG DISSIPATING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH A FEW CUMULUS AND FEW-SCT CIRRUS IN
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE A 3 KT OR LESS OR CALM EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KT IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/15
AVIATION...15
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