516
FXUS61 KALY 221812
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
212 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS, RAIN, COOL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE REMOVED FROM OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
FORECAST OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER LONGER FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY ON
TUESDAY. THIS RESULTED IN ADJUSTING POPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWERING
TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION
TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM FOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BE A LARGELY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE
IF MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT.
2) NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WET-
BULB PROCESSES HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY IN
THIS RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE
BEEN MOSTLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THESE RATES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE
ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. IN ADDITION, THE CLOUDS, RAIN, COOL
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS REDUCED THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER REMOVED SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AS THIS INITIAL AREA OF RAIN DEPARTS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING,
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY (AROUND 500 J/KG) COULD ALLOW FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT ONCE AGAIN NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING) CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOW THE CLEARING TREND ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS
LINGERING FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DRY WEATHER REACHES ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE EVENING. WITH EXTRA CLOUDS
AND SOME SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WERE REDUCED A FEW DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY, DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING
THE RECENT RAINFALL. BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS IF ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE. TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK (AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND) LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... TERMINALS STARTING THIS PERIOD NEAR VFR
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DEVOLVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. VIS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER OF CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
RAIN/MIST REDUCING VIS TO MVFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN TO BRING VIS
DOWN TO IFR AND CIGS DOWN TO MVFR, REFLECTED BY TEMPO GROUPS
THROUGH THE FIRST 6-8 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CIGS BEGIN TO
DROP, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY AT KPOU, REFLECTED BY THE PROB30 GROUP FROM 03Z-06Z. VIS
WILL START TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN BECOMES MORE SCATTERED, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS.
INITIAL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KALB WHICH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 12 KTS AFTER 19Z. WINDS
WILL THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE, BEFORE A
SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SETS IN BETWEEN 09Z-13Z ON
TUESDAY. KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WINDS
UNDER 7 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHIFT, WHILE KPOU IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE RETURN
OF NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 10-15 KTS THROUGHOUT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page