500
FXUS61 KALY 042348
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
748 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #459 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SCHOHARIE, GREENE, ALBANY AND RENSSELAER AND CONTINUES FOR
ULSTER, DUTCHESS, COLUMBIA, BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE
IS PUSHING THROUGH DUTCHESS COUNTY ENTERING LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AS SOME
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. THESE STORMS SHOULD EXIT
LITCHFIELD COUNTY BY 9PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY,
VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE POSING AN INCREASED RISK
FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.
2) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY IMPACT
OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY EVENTS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 1 AND 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
3) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT WHERE HEAT
INDEX VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 PM THIS EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES. ELSEWHERE, A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS HAS BEGUN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
ONGOING NORTH OF I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BETTER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE THERE IS GREATER HEATING AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A NEARLY
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WILL BE, BUT SOUTHERN AREAS CERTAINLY LOOK TO SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES WILL REACH CLOSE TO 2.00", WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS TOTAL
PRECIP MAY REACH 1" TO 3" FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IT HAS DRY
RECENTLY AND MOST AREAS COULD USE SOME RAINFALL, BUT HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS MAY STILL LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WPC NOW HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE DAY 3
OUTLOOK, WITH THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) GETTING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS,
BUT A WET AND COOLER MONDAY LOOKS MORE LIKELY, WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE. RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED BUT NO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/MON...LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH
KPOU AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING BRIEF VSBYS TO
AT LEAST IFR AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN ENDING BY 01-02Z/SUN AT
KPSF. OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG MAY FORM AT
SOME SITES WHERE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS COULD LOWER TO IFR. THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS AT KPOU DUE TO THE
HEAVY THUNDERSTORM. SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
KPOU BETWEEN 21-24Z/SAT. WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT
THEN VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
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