176
FXUS61 KALY 291059
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
659 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE
SPREAD TODAY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
3) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS
MAY 1.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED DRY FINE FUELS ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 35-45% RANGE AND
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH, THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FIRE SPREAD IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH
WFO BURLINGTON AND VT STATE OFFICIALS. THE RISK WILL END TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A POTENT SHORT WAVE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
TRACKING NE INTO S. QUEBEC TONIGHT. A SECONDARY/COASTAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NYC AREA BY THU MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL
SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES IN. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE THU MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL
QPF SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 0.50"-0.75" EXCEPT 0.75"-1.25" IN
THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. NBM PROBS FOR > 0.50" RAIN ARE AT 55%-70%
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND 70-85% IN THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH COOL/BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THU P.M. IN THE SYSTEM'S WAKE. HIGHS THU
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S, WITH A NW
BREEZE GUSTING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL
AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OF -1 TO -2 STDEV ARE FORECAST FROM THE NAEFS THU THROUGH SUN
NIGHT, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS COULD
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES, AS THE
GROWING SEASON BEGINS MAY 1 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY, S. TACONICS
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE COLDEST
NIGHTS LOOK TO BE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S WHERE THE GROWING SEASON WILL HAVE STARTED. HOW
WIDESPREAD FRONT/FREEZE CONDITIONS END UP WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER AND WIND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR < 32F LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, S. TACONICS AND N. LITCHFIELD HILLS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL
TERMINALS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD.WHILE MID-TO-LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY, THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN STEADY AT ALL KGFL AND KALB, AND
LIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO AROUND 20-25 KTS AT
KGFL AND KALB, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS AT KPOU AND KPSF UP TO
15 KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL DRIVE A STEADY
LOWERING OF CIGS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT, LIKELY BRINGING A
TRANSITION TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, LIKELY TRANSITIONING CIGS AND
VIS FROM MVFR TO IFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
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