740
FXUS61 KALY 031900
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO 2-3" IN
THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO WINTRY MIX TRANSITION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED GREATER FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND I-90 SOUTH. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER SO THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER
HYDRO CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLIPPERY TRAVEL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE, DUE TO
SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
2) ADDITIONAL SLIPPERY TRAVEL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
3) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMALS TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL, THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOWMELT AND INCREASED RUNOFF. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS AND FLOODING LOOKS TO INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW,
ALONG WITH A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
RADAR AND OBS SHOWING SNOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ALONG
THE I-90 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SOME ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING, SO HAVE INCREASED SNOW
TOTALS TO 2-3" IN THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. DUE TO OVERALL
COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHEN THE EXPECTED WARM NOSE ARRIVES
FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING,
SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
OCCUR FIRST ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY, THEN SPREADING
NORTH/EAST INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, ALONG I-90 AND INTO
BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VT. SO THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE MESSY,
WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BY AROUND 7 PM,
MOST OF THE PRECIP FROM I-90 SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING RAIN,
WITH A MIX TO THE NORTH (EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET IN
THE S. ADIRONDACKS).
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 32F IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING, SO THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF ICING
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. TEMPERATURE COULD START TO
FINALLY NUDGE UP TO ~33-34F IN SOME SPOTS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN, ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
BELOW 32F IN MANY HIGHER ELEVATIONS LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR UNTIL 3-5 AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN, THE NEXT ROUND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU INTO THU
NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WED NIGHT, BUT
PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32F
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
SOUTH/WEST OF ALBANY EARLY THU MORNING. OTHERWISE, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH FREEZING RAIN
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE S. ADIRONDACKS, S. GREENS
AND THE BERKSHIRES. PRECIP EXPANDS AND INTENSIFIES THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER NORTH.
QPF HAS INCREASED, WITH AROUND 0.50-1.00" FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90
CORRIDOR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER
THOUGH, ESPECIALLY ON FRI WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP
DEVELOPING. SO WHILE THERE WILL BE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL, THE
AMOUNT OF SNOWMELT IS QUESTIONABLE AT LEAST THROUGH FRI. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF THE S. ADIRONDACKS AND S. GREENS DUE TO ICE ACCRETION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOP
STARTING THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST ON SAT, A WARM FROM IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON
TIMING, OUR AREA COULD GET INTO A WARM SECTOR SAT AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM (+10C TO +13C AT
850 MB), SO THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE MUCH HOW MIXING CAN OCCUR.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE FOR NOW. THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN/SHOWERS AROUND IN THE MORNING, BUT SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WARM SECTOR. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
SAT EVENING WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
COOLER ALOFT ON SUN IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, BETTER MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGH STILL IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH COOLER 40S SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR FROM SNOWMELT AND SOME RAINFALL, WITH POSSIBLE
MOVEMENT/BREAK-UP OF ICE ON SOME AREA RIVERS.
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING SW FLOW WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF
+1 TO +2 STDEV ARE FORECAST FROM THE NAEFS. ASSUMING GOOD
MIXING CONDITIONS, HIGHS COULD EXCEED 60F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY ON MON AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUE. WHILE
SNOWMELT AND ICE BREAKUP WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE ON AREA RIVERS,
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. STILL, WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL ICE JAM FLOODING IN SOME TYPICAL
TROUBLE SPOTS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A VARIETY OF FLYING CONDITIONS START THE TAF PERIOD AS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE KPSF AND KALB CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS, IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FLUCTUATE AT KPOU AND KGFL AS THEY ARE ON THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AND
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS
THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY IFR
DUE TO LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE/MIST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BETWEEN 04/12Z AND
04/18Z, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KPOU, KPSF, AND
KGFL. FOR KALB, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT TO
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-
049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page