036
FXUS61 KALY 191007
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
607 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND QPF ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY, AS A COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH AS FAR
SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THURSDAY P.M. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, MAINLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SE CANADA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
ENTERS OUR AREA, SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES IN, SO WILL
MENTION 20% POPS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE < 700 J/KG FROM HREF, SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
THE DECAYING FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THU,
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY ONLY REACHING SE PA/NJ BEFORE STALLING WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY AND TRACKING EAST
ALONG IT ON THU. CAMS ARE ESPECIALLY AGGRESSIVE INDICATING
SHOWERS FROM THIS WAVE MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA (E. CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY,
TACONICS, LITCHFIELD CT). GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
THOUGH, BUT AI MODELS DO HAVE SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY. NBM
POPS/QPF LOOK TOO LOW, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
THESE AREAS BY THU P.M. AND USED WPC QPF, WHICH SHOWS AROUND
0.25-0.50" ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW, AS ANY APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AS A
RESULT OF MORE CLOUDS/SHOWERS AROUND, TEMPERATURES LOOK COOLER
(MAINLY 70S) AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER IF TRENDS HOLD.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU EVENING AS
THE WAVE TRACKS INTO SE NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE WEEKEND IS
COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER FOCUS NOW. SAT LOOKS LIKE THE DRIER
DAY COMPARED TO SUN, ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A COASTAL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TO SE NEW ENGLAND. THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BASED ON THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE. SUN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WETTER DAY, AS FORCING
INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. WITH THE MAIN SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH
INTO CANADA, THE SYSTEM'S OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS FOR LIKELY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS SOME
T-STORMS) TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS
DECREASED, AS MOST DETERMINISTIC, AI AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
LOOSELY CONSOLIDATED INDICATING A CLOSED LOW TRACKING NORTH/WEST
OF OUR AREA. THERE IS STILL SPREAD IN THE EXACT TRACK, BUT
LATEST TRENDS AT LEAST INDICATE LOWERING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. LATEST NBM SHOWING A 15-35% PROB OF > 1.0" RAIN ENDING
MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...ALB/POU/PSF SEEING VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AS
OF 6:00 AM EDT, IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT GFL DUE TO FOG/MIST
THERE. SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST HAS ALSO DEVELOPED EARLIER AT PSF.
CONTINUED PERIODS OF FOG/MIST AND IFR OR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12-13Z. OTHERWISE,
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND. HAVE ALSO ADDED VCSH GROUP AT GFL FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AT GFL AND
POSSIBLY PSF LATE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THIS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TAF
PERIOD INCREASE TO 5-10 KT FROM THE S/SW THIS MORNING, VEERING
TO THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT.
WINDS DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35
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