906  
FXUS61 KALY 132003  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
403 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARM AND MUGGY TODAY WITH A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT  
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH  
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN  
AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE  
EARLY THIS EVENING. OUR FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF  
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF  
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING  
IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEFORE CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR ANOTHER  
PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING NORTH AND WEST  
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE ONCE AGAIN A CONCERN TOMORROW FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND  
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN  
OR STORMS CAN REPEATEDLY IMPACT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR  
FLOODING.  
 
- THERE IS A 50 TO 75% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90  
DEGREES ON TUESDAY IN VALLEY AREAS. SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES  
COMBINED WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX  
VALUES NEARING THE 95F HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
MORNING CLOUDS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUN WITH  
INSOLATION COMBINED WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW  
POINTS IN THE LOW 70S CONTRIBUTING TO ML CAPE VALUES ALREADY  
RANGING FROM 1000 - 2000 J/KG WITH SB CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG  
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE OVERALL SHEAR  
REMAINS QUITE LOW, LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD  
TROUGHING POSITIONED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST IN ONTARIO VERY  
GRADUALLY PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD. A SFC TROUGH JUST DOWNWIND OF  
LAKE ONTARIO IS ALSO SLIDING EASTWARD AND IS SERVING AS A FOCUS  
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING  
PARENT TROUGH, CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIKELY  
GROW UPSCALE GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR REMAINS  
WEAK GIVEN WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN BUT WITH A CONVEYOR  
BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ADVANCING EASTWARD AHEAD OF  
THE TROUGH, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-25KTS  
CLOSER TO 21 - 03 UTC. WHILE WE WILL BE MOVING PAST PEAK  
HEATING, THE HIGH INSTABILITY COINCIDE WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING  
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASED SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN  
INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME  
BETTER ORGANIZED/GROW UPSCALE. THEREFORE, SPC HAS UPGRADED  
THEIR DAY 1 OUTLOOK TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 TO 5) FOR THE  
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE THIS  
OVERLAP IS MOST FAVORABLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN HIGH  
PWATS NEAR 2" AND TALL SKINNY CAPE SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS,  
WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN  
FROM ANY SEVERE STORM WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALSO CAPABLE OF  
GUSTY WINDS AND SPAWNING ADDITIONAL STORMS. BESIDES SEVERE  
WEATHER POTENTIAL, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS  
ANOTHER HAZARD WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW  
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT  
WITH FZ HEIGHTS NEARLY 13KFT WILL EASILY SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM  
RAIN PROCESSES SO ANY STORMS THAT ARE SLOW MOVING OR  
TRAIN/REPEATEDLY IMPACT AN AREA CAN LEAD TO FLOODING, ESPECIALLY  
IN LOW-LYING, URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF  
CONVECTION OR HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS OR BACKBUILDS OVER AN AREA AND  
WE AGREE WITH THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 TO 4) IN WPC'S DAY 1  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, GIVEN HIGH 3-HRLY FLASH  
FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) VALUES 2-3", FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE  
LIMITED TO THE TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS.HEADING INTO TONIGHT,  
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT AND  
AREAS OF RAIN/STORMS PUSH DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE PERIODS  
OF RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, SEVERE  
WEATHER AND FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH.  
 
WE ARE START MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY AROUND THE CAPITAL  
DISTRICT WITH CLOUDS AND STRATUS WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN. THE VERY  
WARM AND MOIST BUOYANT SECTOR WILL NOW BE POSITIONED FROM THE  
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, THE  
MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AS CLOUDS GIVE WAY  
TO BREAK OF SUN ERODING THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND PWATS  
REMAIN HIGH AROUND 2" (NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL  
PER THE NAEFS), ML CAPE WILL ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY INCREASE TO  
1-2K J/KG. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES BY MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON SO WILL THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.  
SIMILAR KINEMATICS TO SUNDAY, THE VERY WEAK FLOW ORIENTED  
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND HIGH FZ HEIGHTS SUPPORTIVE OF  
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL EASILY RESULT IN HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS WITH RAIN POTENTIALLY TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OR  
REPEATEDLY IMPACTING A GIVEN AREA. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND WE COLLABORATED WITH  
WPC TO INCREASE THE ERO TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FROM THE  
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. NO FLOOD WATCH ISSUED ON THIS  
SHIFT GIVEN WE ALREADY HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR HERKIMER  
COUNTY FOR TONIGHT BUT WE WILL RE-EVALUATE THE NEED WITH OUR  
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ONCE  
AGAIN RATHER HIGH AT 2-3" IN 3 HOURS AND SOIL MOISTURE IS LOW BUT  
THE 12 UTC HREF SHOWS 40-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2" OF RAIN IN  
3 HOURS TOMORROW P.M INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THE PROBABILITY  
MATCH MEAN EVEN SHOWING 10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3" IN 3 HOURS.  
AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES BY LATE AFTERNOON ENHANCING  
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING A SECONDARY  
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF HEAVY  
RAIN WILL LIKELY FURTHER RAISING FLOODING CONCERNS. DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR IS AGAIN WEAK RANGING 20-25KTS WITH MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES  
5-5.5C/KM BUT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS RESULTING  
DAMAGING WINDS, WE COLLABORATED WITH SPC TO INTRODUCE A MARGINAL  
RISK IN THIS AREA. HEAVY RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE SHIFTS IN OUR  
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES INCLUDING DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD COUNTY BY EARLY  
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
TUESDAY FINALLY TURNS DRIER AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD. OUR BOUNDARY  
STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS  
COULD GRAZE OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SO 20-30% WERE INTRODUCED IN  
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE HEAT ON  
TUESDAY AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES. WHILE NORTHWEST  
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY LOWER  
PWATS/HUMIDITY, DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. GIVEN MUCH  
MORE SUNSHINE FOR AREAS FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD,  
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN  
VALLEY AREAS RESULTING IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES FLIRTING WITH  
THE 95F CRITERIA. THE HIGHER INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT DEEPER  
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HELPING TO REDUCE DEW POINTS DURING PEAK  
HEATING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF 95F+ HEAT INDEX VALUES BUT IT  
CERTAINLY WILL BE CLOSE AND BARES MONITORING. MORE CLOUDS IN  
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL TO HIT  
THE 95F CRITERIA SO LESS CONFIDENCE THERE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE  
MID 90S TO LOW 100S IN THE VALLEY AREAS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END  
OF THIS WEEK.  
 
- WATCHING THURSDAY - FRIDAY FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WITH WEAK  
RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,  
850 HPA ISOTHERMS BUILD BACK TO +18 TO +20C. THEREFORE, THERE IS  
A 50 - 80% PROBABILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F FOR  
ELEVATIONS MAINLY BELOW 1000 FT. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE BACK ON  
THE RISE GIVEN THE FLOW REGIME AND CURRENT PEAK HEAT INDEX  
VALUES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. HEATRISK VALUES  
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE "MAJOR" RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. WHILE MOST OF  
THE DAY WILL BE DRY, CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR  
RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH  
GRADUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. CHANCES FOR  
RAIN AND STORMS RETURN LATE WED P.M INTO WED NIGHT AS A  
SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH  
FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING INTO THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. BY  
THURSDAY, WE REMAIN IN THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT  
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE COULD REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW  
DEGREES SO NOT AS CONFIDENT AS WEDNESDAY IN NEEDING HEAT  
ADVISORIES. GIVEN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE  
WESTERLY FLOW REGIME, POPS TREND FROM CHANCE TO LIKELY ON  
THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES  
REMAIN UNCERTAIN SO NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT BUT PERIODS  
OF RAIN/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SIMILAR TO WED NIGHT, THURSDAY  
NIGHT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE VERY WARM AND MUGGY  
AIR MASS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID  
70S (60S HIGHER TERRAIN).  
 
AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY  
MONITOR THE THURSDAY EVENING - FRIDAY TIME FOR OUR NEXT  
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. A POTENT COLD FRONT AND  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AND WITH IT  
ENTERING INTO SUCH A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT, INSTABILITY  
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS WHILE  
THE FORCING WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT  
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. TIMING WILL BE KEY AS A LATER DAY OR  
OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT  
THE OVERLAP WITH PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY AND THEREBY LIMIT  
SEVERE POTENTIAL. ZONAL FLOW THEN ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC  
HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN DRIER AIR AND A RELIEF FROM THE  
HEAT/HUMIDITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED  
INITIALLY WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING MORE TO VFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS  
AS LOW CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE  
WEST AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NY ALONG AND AHEAD  
OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THIS  
TAF FOR KGFL/KALB FROM 00-06Z MONDAY AS SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A  
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS  
VICINITY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER AT KGFL WHERE MVFR  
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. LATER TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW  
SHOULD HAVE A MARINE LAYER ADVANCE INLAND WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO  
MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO  
MVFR ARE ALSO EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY FOR KPSF. THIS MARINE LAYER  
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT DURING THE MORNING, BUT A RETURN TO VFR  
CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS  
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR  
20 KTS AT KALB, AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
CIRA ALPW SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION, AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
TO 1.8-2.0" AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH WARM CLOUD  
DEPTHS >12 KFT. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE OVERLY SLOW AT AROUND 30  
KT, BUT THE FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY, SO BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
GIVEN THE ABOVE, WE COLLABORATED WITH WFO BGM AND BUF TO ISSUE A  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 5 AM FOR SOUTHERN  
HERKIMER COUNTY, AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOWER HERE  
COMPARED TO SURROUNDING AREAS. RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO 2"  
PER HOUR. THE FLOOD THREAT IS GREATEST FOR THE MORE URBAN AREAS, AS  
WELL AS LOW-LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC HAS MAINTAINED THEIR  
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF  
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TODAY.  
 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW, MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT  
SOUTH AND EASTWARDS. WPC HAS PLACED THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK  
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT  
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MORE URBAN, POOR-DRAINAGE, AND LOW-LYING  
AREAS.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ038.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE  
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE  
LONG TERM...SPECIALE  
AVIATION...SPECK  
HYDROLOGY...MAIN/SPECIALE  
 
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