282
FXUS61 KALY 180532
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND HUMID CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BECOME OPPRESSIVE BY MONDAY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 130 AM EDT....SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER NY
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTUBANCE
YESTERDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING OVER NORTHERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
ARE FORMING WITH THE RECENT WET GROUND, AS WELL AS LOW STRATUS.
WE KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS, AND WENT PATCHY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS COOLED DUE TO THE SHOWERS IN THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STEADY AND NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH. THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATER TODAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
TODAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL HAVE A
REPEAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A BOUNDARY. WITH INSTABILITY, LIFT AND
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. THE OVERNIGHT LOW WILL BE MILD AROUND 70
DEGREES.
MONDAY...THE HEAT IS ON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 90
DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. IT
WILL BE VERY HUMID AND OPPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS WELL NORTH OF 90, WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE HEAT INDEX FOR MONDAY. WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NOT SEE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
IS USHERED OUT BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH
LIFT, INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AND SOME
IMPULSES OVERNIGHT, WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING RELIEF AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. FRIDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 0520Z, MOIST NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAY'S
RAINFALL ARE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. KPOU IS THE ONLY SITE YET TO HAVE VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS, BUT
EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST (WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS TO VFR) FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO ERODE BY
12-13Z.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CURRENTLY, MODELS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE 18.20Z-19.03Z TIMEFRAME. WILL MAINTAIN
PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD AT AROUND 4-
6KFT AGL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FIRE WEATHER
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BECOME OPPRESSIVE BY MONDAY.
MAX RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT THE
NEXT 48 HOURS
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AS HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEW POINTS ARE ON THE
INCREASE. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING
OF URBAN, LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME TEMPORARY
ELEVATED FLOWS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON BROOKS,
STREAMS, CREEKS AND OTHER SMALL BODIES OF WATER.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY THURSDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...VTK/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...VTK
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...THOMPSON
FIRE WEATHER...VTK
HYDROLOGY...VTK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page