997
FXUS61 KALY 070643
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
243 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PORTIONS OF ULSTER,
DUTCHESS, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ANY STORM
THAT REACHES SEVERE STRENGTH WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR
HEAT- RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ULSTER, WESTERN
DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING, UPSTREAM TROUGH AND
WARM, MOIST CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
BERMUDA HIGH WILL ONCE AGAIN DRIVE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO THE EXACT COVERAGE DUE TO INCONSISTENT
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AND, GIVEN MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
(SBCAPE ~1000 TO 2500 J/KG) ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT (PWATS ~1.5" TO 2+"), THE OVERALL WEAK FORCING SHOULD
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR. THAT BEING SAID, THIS
COULD POSE A DETRIMENT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE-LEVEL
CONVECTION. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY WEAK, DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, IN ADDITION TO THIS WEAK FORCING, WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTHENING ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS, HOWEVER, INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ULSTER,
DUTCHESS, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES WHERE SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST.
HERE, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
IN FACT, PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY
WINDS WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR STORM TODAY REGARDLESS OF ITS
STRENGTH. LIKEWISE, ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED ITS MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TODAY, SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN VERY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS; SLOW STORM MOTION; AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS A
PLAUSIBLE HAZARD FOR TODAY PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT HAD A
HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM YESTERDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION. PWATS WON'T
BE TO THE DEGREE THEY ARE TODAY GIVEN THE BERMUDA HIGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT LOCALLY MODERATE DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
SATURDAY AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WIDELY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY WILL MAKE FOR
FAIRLY UNPLEASANT AND UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE
GREATEST FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES, OR HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
FOUND IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HERE, HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS PARTICULARLY FOR
THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THEM. THEREFORE, A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS, LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IN A COOLED LOCATION IN ORDER TO MITIGATE HEAT STROKE AND HEAT
EXHAUSTION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SAT, AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH VSBYS/CIGS LIKELY
LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/FRI. LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING, PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS. PATCHY FOG MAY THEN REDEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 03Z/SAT.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 KT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER, AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN/NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24
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