587
FXUS61 KALY 301804
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
OVERNIGHT, WE REMOVED FOG FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOUTHWEST FLOW PROPAGATING AROUND A 1020 HPA ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO USHER SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND MERE BRIEF BREAKS OF SUN. SO WHILE IT'S DRY WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES, WE REMAIN IN A DREARY PATTERN. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH THE RETURN OF SHOWER CHANCES. TOMORROW, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DRIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL AID IN OVERCOMING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
FROM THE NEARBY HIGH. ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT (ANA FRONT) WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. A
RESULTING 0.05" TO 0.5" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST OF
THESE AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE
NORTH, WEST, AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SATURDAY WILL
BE THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS THAT CONSISTENT SUN WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE SKIES REMAIN LARGELY GRAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
TEMPERATURES WILL AT LEAST REMAIN PLEASANT AND EVEN GET QUITE
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF
1 TO NEARLY 2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL WILL DRIVE ABOVE-NORMAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. TOMORROW'S
HIGHS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BEFORE
FRIDAY'S VALUES REACH THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S AND EVEN POCKETS
NEAR 80 IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY. BUT, THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
ENSURES A TREND BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SUBSEQUENTLY LARGELY FALL TO
THE 30S, WHICH COULD POSE THE THREAT OF FROST FORMATION IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON WILL STILL BE ONGOING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN MVFR AT
ALB/GFL/PSF, BUT HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT POU AS OF 1 PM EDT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
CONTINUED MVFR CIGS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TONIGHT, LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET,
BUT BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. GFL/PSF
STILL LOOK TO HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE SOME FOG/MIST AND IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT ALB/POU VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST SET
OF TAFS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WINDS
REMAINING AT 3-6 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALB. EVEN FOR GFL/PSF,
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PREVALENT AND HOW DENSE FOG
WILL BE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS. ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12-
13Z TOMORROW MORNING, WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT GFL TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, HOWEVER. WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING, INCREASING TO 4-8 KT FROM THE S/SW BY MID-MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...35
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