041
FXUS61 KALY 062337
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE DURING THIS FORECAST ITERATION
PERTAINED TO TONIGHT'S ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. THE NBM WAS TOO
LOW AND SLOW WITH POPS FOR TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SO WE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
PROBABILITIES IN THESE AREAS IN COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SIMILARLY, THE WEATHER FORECAST HAD TO BE
ALTERED TO MATCH AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS ADDED IN AREAS
WHERE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP,
LOW-LEVEL WARM NOSE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SLIPPERY TRAVEL POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHERN GREENS, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
2) CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN WILL
PROMOTE SNOW MELT, POTENTIAL RIVER RISES, AND A SUBSEQUENT
THREAT OF ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT
THE SURFACE. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT, PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
FORCING TO ALLOW PATCHY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER-HUDSON
VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN PARTICULAR. HERE, AND IN EVEN
MORE ISOLATED SPOTS WITHIN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUFFICIENTLY TO SEE
PRECIPITATION REACH THE SURFACE. FOR THE MOST PART,
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS PLAIN RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, WITH
AN ANTICYCLONE STILL PARKED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, SHALLOW
COLD AIR WILL SNEAK IN BENEATH THE LOW-LEVEL WARM NOSE
(INVERSION) AND FORCE SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
OVERALL WEAK FORCING AND SUBSEQUENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES
RESULTING FROM THIS SYSTEM, SO WE HELD OFF ON WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR NOW. HOWEVER, WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE A TARGETED
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LATER THIS EVENING TO ALERT THOSE IN
THESE AREAS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SLICK ROADWAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW MAKES A BREAK FOR THE NORTHEAST AND NEARS OVERHEAD.
AND WHILE WE WILL EVENTUALLY FALL INTO A PSEUDO-WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, THE PERSISTENCE OF A STEEP,
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL MITIGATE ANY SORT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THAT OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST MAY BE
DEALING WITH. THAT'S NOT TO SAY THAT WE WON'T SEE SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS, BUT THERE IS NO
CONCERN FOR DAMAGE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, MINOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THESE SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS, SO NO FLOODING IS OF CONCERN
EITHER. THIS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S,
WILL HOWEVER LEAD TO SNOWMELT THAT MAY RUNOFF INTO SOME LOCAL
RIVERS AND STREAMS AND CAUSE MINOR RISES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOME RAIN LINGERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, BUT BY SUNDAY
MORNING, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE MET WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO TREND
ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 2 TO NEARLY 2.5 STDEVS
ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAEFS.
SUNDAY WILL STILL FEATURE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKE
SATURDAY, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WARMTH WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AS THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS. HIGHS WILL
THEREFORE ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
HUDSON VALLEY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES,
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S AND 60S. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MIDDLE TO
END OF THE WEEK MAY SEE THE RETURN OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN, SO
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.
GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THIS WARMING TREND, AND THE ANTICIPATION FOR
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT
EROSION OF THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSEQUENT RUN OFF MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THE ADDITION OF RAIN WOULD ONLY WORK TO
WORSEN THE MATTER. THEREFORE, WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS IN THE CASE THAT THESE CONDITIONS COULD POSE A THREAT OF
ICE JAMS AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING. IT REMAINS CHALLENGING TO MAKE
A DETERMINATION OF WHETHER ANY FLOODING WILL OCCUR LET ALONE
EXACTLY WHERE, BUT WE SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA OVER THE COMING
DAYS BY CLOSELY MONITORING HOW ICE LEVELS ON OUR RIVERS HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED BY THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AS OF 6:35 PM EST, EXCEPT
AT POU WHERE CIGS ARE IFR AT 900 FT. TREND THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE LOWERING OF CIGS TO LOW-END MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY
AROUND 06, WITH VSBYS ALSO TRENDING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL AIR TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH MAINLY IFR VSBYS. SOME MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO IFR AND VSBYS TO MVFR EXPECTED BY AROUND LATE
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING. IFR CIGS
PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND MAY BEGIN TO TREND LOWER
AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR BY THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL ALSO
MENTION THAT A FEW SHOWERS AT GFL ARE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT TRACKS OVERHEAD,
BUT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE OTHER TERMINALS. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A PROB30 AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT GFL AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
OTHER TERMINALS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY BE FROM THE
S/SE (LOCALLY E AT PSF) AT 5-10 KT, BUT AT ALB INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AFTER 06Z AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GFL MAY ALSO HAVE SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT GFL LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGEST HERE, AND INCLUDED LLWS AT POU/PSF
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET TURNS TO
THE W/SW AT 30-40 KT WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING FROM THE S/SE. SFC
WINDS AT ALB SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LLWS
CONCERNS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...35
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