713
FXUS61 KALY 222327
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME COLD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS. ALL OF WINDHAM AND FULTON COUNTIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE EXTREME COLD WARNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS NOT IN THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS. THESE
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES GO INTO EFFECT TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES.
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DANGEROUS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROSTBITE.
3) A SIGNIFICANT LONG DURATION SNOWSTORM CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH, LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
HIGHEST NORTH OF OLD FORGE AS A HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 7
INCHES IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2:
DANGEROUS COLD FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
BREEZY WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES. EXTREME COLD
WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS, BERKSHIRES, NORTHERN
TACONICS, AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE AS LOW AS 30 BELOW. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 20
BELOW. THE ONE NOTE IS THAT ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, FEELS-
LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RANGE TO BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW. NEVERTHELESS, IT IS GOING TO BE BITTERLY COLD OUTSIDE AND
FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA WILL OCCUR IF UNPROTECTED SKIN IS
EXPOSED TO THESE TEMPERATURES FOR IN LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.
KEY MESSAGE 3:
A MOISTURE-RICH STORM SYSTEM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US FOR SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE REFORMING
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, PASSING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF. IVT VALUES WILL BE 2-4 STD ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN US ON SUNDAY. WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE, THIS MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE,
THANKS TO THE 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO START THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS BELOW ZERO.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING A COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK OUT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. INITIALLY, THE COLD DRY AIR MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS), BUT ALL
AREAS WILL WIND UP SEEING SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE MORNING HOURS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
MODELS SUGGEST A LATERALLY-TRANSLATING BAND OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED,
WHICH MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR WITHIN
THIS SNOW BAND (AND POSSIBLY OVER 2" PER HOUR). THIS BAND MAY
EVENTUALLY PIVOT AS THE SECONDARY LOW TAKES OVER, BUT THIS MAY WIND
UP OCCURRING EAST OR NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW.
SNOW WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
AND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD CONTINUE TO BE PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHTER FOR MONDAY, BUT
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BEFORE
WINDING DOWN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.
SNOWFALL RATIOS SHOULD RATHER HIGH, RESULTING A LIGHT AND FLUFFY
SNOWFALL. THE DEEP COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
DGZ THAT WILL LOCATED FAIRLY LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT THROUGH THIS LAYER THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT, RESULTING IN
RATIOS HIGHER THAN CLIMO. NBM SUGGESTS RATIOS AROUND 15:1, ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY VARY FROM TIME TO TIME AND WITHIN BANDING AND OTHER
FACTORS. AT THIS TIME, ANY WARM LAYERS ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE REGION, KEEPING THE PRECIP AS JUST SNOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA,
WITH THE NEAREST WARM NOSE GETTING AS CLOSE AS THE NYC METRO AREA ON
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP AMOUNTS,
ALTHOUGH THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. MOST GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. WITH THE HIGH SNOW RATIOS IN PLACE, THIS ALLOW FOR A STRONG
POSSIBILITY TO EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA (7 INCHES), SO HAVE GONE WITH
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MANY AREAS MAY EXCEED ONE
FOOT WITH THIS STORM, WITH SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS IN THE CATSKILLS
OVER 18 INCHES. WITH THIS STORM STILL BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, SOME
CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE, SO THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE,
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR WARNING-LEVEL STORM IS RATHER HIGH AND NBM
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF EXCEEDING 8" RANGES FROM 50% IN THE FAR
NORTH TO 95% IN THE FAR SOUTH.
THIS SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE LARGEST WINTER
STORM IN QUITE SOME TIME FOR THIS REGION WITH THE LONG DURATION
IMPACTING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FRIGID THROUGH THE EVENT WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. LUCKILY, FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE EVENT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO A
MINIMUM.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH
BKN CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL WILL PASS THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME
AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDED MENTION OF
PROB30 FRIDAY 18Z-24Z FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED -SHSN AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 5-12
KT, INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT DEVELOPING BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
JANUARY 24
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
ALBANY, NY: -1 DEGREES SET IN 1882
GLENS FALLS, NY: 0 DEGREES SET IN 1907
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1948
RECORD COLD LOW TEMPERATURES:
ALBANY, NY: -17 DEGREES SET IN 1948
GLENS FALLS, NY: -30 DEGREES SET IN 2011
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: -15 DEGREES SET IN 1961
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR CTZ001-013.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ040-041-043-047>053-058>061-063>066-083-084.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-038-039-042-054-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MAZ001-025.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR VTZ013>015.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...05/27/35
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...31
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