010  
FXUS61 KALY 082317  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
617 PM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO A CHILLIER NIGHT.  
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TOMORROW WITH SEASONABLY COOL  
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE. SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY  
WILL SLOWLY FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT. OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH MAY GIVE US SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 615 PM, FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING;  
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS CLOUDS LINGER IN WESTERN NEW  
ENGLAND AND INTO PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE EASTERN  
CATSKILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE CONTINGENT ON CLOUD  
COVERAGE MEANING WHERE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT (LIKELY  
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY)  
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 20S AND EVEN UPPER TEENS.  
WHERE CLOUDS ARE STUBBORN TO ERODE, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY A BIT  
ELEVATED AND MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ADJUSTED  
CLOUD COVERAGE TO BETTER MATCH THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (I.E  
HRRR AND NAM) WHICH IS CATCHING ON TO THE FACT THAT CLOUDS MAY  
LINGER IN PARTS OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT  
TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE TO UNDER 5KTS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL  
HELP FUNNEL COOLER AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO EASTERN NY AND  
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE HUDSON BAY IN  
CANADA STRENGTHENS IMPRESSIVELY TOWARDS 1045 - 1050HPA. DESPITE  
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH, IT WILL NOSE  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH,  
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TOMORROW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH  
NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING SEASONABLY COOL AND VERY DRY AIR DOWN  
THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED CHAMPLAIN AND HUDSON VALLEY. WITH A  
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
OVERHEAD WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS,  
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE VALLEY, RANGING 5 - 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO  
15-20KTS AT TIMES.  
 
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO FUNNEL CHILLY AND  
VERY DRY AIR DOWN THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT  
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD COMPARED TO THE  
NBM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW. NORMALLY  
CLEAR SKIES AND ANY KIND OF WIND USUALLY IMPEDES TEMPERATURES  
FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD BUT IN THIS SITUATION, THE  
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN A CHILLY AIR MASS. THUS, WE  
FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BLEND IN NBM25TH PERCENTILE AND TREND  
TEMPERATURES LOWER. DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND CLEAR SKIES  
WILL ALSO ASSIST COOLING. WE SHOW LOWS REACHING INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER TEENS WITH NEAR 20 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. THE MET/MOS  
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOW EVEN COOLER VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID  
TEENS BUT WE DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO THAT COLD GIVEN THE  
SOMEWHAT BREEZY WINDS.  
 
SUNNY SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS  
THE ~1045HPA MAINTAINS CONTROL. THE LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION  
HEIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THUS KEEP  
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. LUCKILY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
RELAXES SO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO FRIDAY.  
 
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY FADE BEHIND INTRUDING  
CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
NOT BE AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT STILL END UP CHILLY FROM  
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT  
(ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 WHERE SKIES STAY CLEAR  
LONGER). EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH UPPER TEENS IN  
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HAVE A  
LONGER INFLUENCE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF  
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN, THE FIRST  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOS TRANQUIL AND DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF  
NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM. MORE  
DETAILS BELOW...  
 
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH A STRONG 1040+MB SURFACE HIGH  
LOCATED OVER QUEBEC, WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING  
SOUTHWARDS INTO OUR REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPER-LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS  
CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT  
(CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION, LEFT EXIT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER  
OUR AREA) TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. IT IS  
STILL EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT A GENERAL 1-3/2-4"  
SNOWFALL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN IN THE VALLEYS DURING  
THE AFTERNOON, BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW BY THE  
EVENING, SO EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS. ONSET TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO RANGE FROM MID-DAY IN  
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW  
ENGLAND.  
 
NOW, THERE ARE STILL SOME FORECAST INTRICACIES THAT HAVE TO BE  
IRONED OUT. FIRST, AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EMERGES OVER THE  
ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT, THE PRIMARY LOW WILL WEAKEN AND A NEW  
SURFACE LOW FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NORLUN/INVERTED  
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND BACK FROM THE COASTAL LOW TOWARDS THE  
DECAYING PRIMARY LOW, WHICH WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BENEATH  
THE UPPER LOW. LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE,  
BUT WHERE EXACTLY THIS FEATURE SETS UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND THESE  
INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN END UP FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED.  
ADDITIONALLY, RECENT FORECAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR MORE AMPLIFIED  
RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A  
FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE OTHER FEATURE THAT WILL  
NEED TO BE MONITORED IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARDS OVER  
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY. IF THIS FEATURE IS  
FASTER/FURTHER SOUTH, THEN IT COULD FORCE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO  
TRACK FURTHER SOUTH, POTENTIALLY LIMITING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR  
NORTHERN AREAS. AT THIS TIME, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT  
SNOWFALL, WITH A FEW AREAS POTENTIALLY NEEDING WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORIES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS FOR  
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM OUR AREA MONDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN COOL BUT TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  
THEN, A MORE IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS  
THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WILL JUST MENTION  
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE  
REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER  
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL  
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT GFL AND PSF, BUT  
STILL EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. TOMORROW MORNING, ANY MID-  
LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH  
AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS WILL BE AT 5-10 KT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT  
ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT, THEN WILL BECOME MORE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AT  
5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WHILE REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-  
10 KT AT PSF.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN...SN.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE  
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON/SPECIALE  
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE  
LONG TERM...MAIN  
AVIATION...MAIN  
 
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