864
FXUS61 KALY 091055
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TIMING OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLIER, NOW EXPECTED TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90. INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, AS
NBM VALUES ARE LIKELY TOO LOW AND NOT CAPTURING MIXING
POTENTIAL WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS WILL BECOME
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR
FLASH FLOODING IS GENERALLY LOW.
2) TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING A BIT
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AS A LEAD DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. WILL MENTION LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE FOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN SPREAD SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE (INCLUDING REFS/HREF) STILL INDICATING
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE < 500 J/KG FROM AROUND ALBANY
NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-45
KT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. IT IS LIKELY STORMS
WILL NOT GROW TALL ENOUGH TO BECOME SEVERE THOUGH. SPC CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
A SMALL AREA INCLUDING THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS FOR
A FEW POSSIBLE ROGUE STRONGER GUSTS. SEVERE PROBS REMAIN LOW
THOUGH DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STORMS MOVING IN PRIMARILY
AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOES INCREASE FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES NOW FORECAST TO BE +2 TO +3
STDEV FROM THE NAEFS. SO BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW DUE TO EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION AND DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF INCH, EXCEPT > 1" IN THE W/SW ADIRONDACKS DUE TO
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE BY DAYBREAK
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WITH STRENGTHENING SW WINDS ALOFT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
(35-45 KT AT 850 MB), OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL OCCUR
IN FAVORED S-N ORIENTED VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN SLOPES. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THU IN A
DEVELOPING DEEPER MIXING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE WARM (HIGHS 80-85F IN HUDSON VALLEY) DUE TO DEEPER MIXING,
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATER IN THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY FRI-SAT PERIOD, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST AND A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. IT WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE HUMID DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAINLY TO KGFL/KALB/KPSF. CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR AT THESE SITES, ALTHOUGH IT COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADUALLY SATURATE. ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE
THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z, AGAIN MAINLY AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR,
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH AFTER 04Z.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
DUE TO A SW JET OF 40-45 KT MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS AT KALB ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 10 KT, SO LLWS IS
MORE MARGINAL THERE AND WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KT
DEVELOPING AT KALB/KPSF AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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