893
FXUS61 KALY 181041
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
SYNOPSIS
CHILLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S FROST WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE BACK TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL DECREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALOFT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE 50S ABOVE; AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER,
HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM
SATURDAY. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT,
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION, MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY,
HELDERBERGS, EASTERN CATSKILLS, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELD
HILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM SATURDAY. FROST
IS EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
A CENTER OF A STRONG AND SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER THE UNITED
STATES/CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW
OF COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FROST, SO ADDITIONAL FROST
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS MAY OR MAY
NOT NEEDED. IF LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE FREEZE WARNING ARE
ACHIEVED THEN THE GROWING SEASON WILL COME TO AN END AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON MONDAY WITH A 1030+ MB ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION. AFTER A CHILLY START WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL FROST, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. IT WILL STILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, ALTHOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE IT WON'T FEEL SO COOL
BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL/CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT, AS
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS SOUTHWEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ONCE
AGAIN THERE COULD BE FROST IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WEST/EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON MAY HAVE ENDED BY THEN
ACROSS AT LEAST SOME ZONES.
MORE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY, AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS AS OUR AREA WILL BE WELL WEST OF TC TEDDY, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NOVA SCOTIA. SO WE WILL HAVE GOOD SUBSIDENCE
WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST BREEZE DEVELOPING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH HIGH REACHING THE MID/UPPER
60S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, SO WILL GOOD MIXING VALLEYS
MAY SEE TEMPS EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL
DAYS.
ON THURSDAY IT LOOKS LIKELY WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST AGREEMENT SHOWING A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN THE LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL START TO MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
BREAKS ARE STARTING TO OCCUR FROM KGFL-KALB AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. CIGS AT KPOU/KPSF ARE IN MVFR RANGE EARLY
THIS MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME SKC BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY, WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-7 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
CHILLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH FROST OCCURRING TONIGHT,
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 35 TO 45
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE 30S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS.
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20S
TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT LIGHTER AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
HYDROLOGY
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE USGS
INDICATES STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IS BELOW NORMAL
WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
CLIMATE
HERE IS A LOOK AT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION HAD OCCURRED SO FAR
THIS MONTH AT OUR CLIMATE SITES AND THE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
AND ITS DEPARTURE.
ALBANY NY:
SEPTEMBER: 0.50 INCHES
2020: 24.41 INCHES (-3.49 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS NY:
SEPTEMBER: 0.28 INCHES
2020: 24.35 INCHES (-3.26 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
SEPTEMBER: 0.74 INCHES
2020: 20.58 INCHES (-12.57 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT:
SEPTEMBER: 2.06 INCHES
2020: 25.34 INCHES (-4.06 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA:
SEPTEMBER: 0.95 INCHES
2020: 23.71 INCHES (-8.11 INCHES)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
CTZ001.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063-082>084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...
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