165  
FXUS61 KBGM 102344  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
744 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE  
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. POP UP SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES  
WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
300 PM UPDATE...  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MODELS FORECAST CAPE  
VALUES UP TO 1,500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 30 KNOTS OR LESS.  
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW MUCH HIGHER SHEAR IN THE 0-8KM LAYER EXTENDING  
THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE  
LACKING TODAYS PARAMETERS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS. THAT IS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE INSTABILITY  
ALOFT. MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG  
GUSTS. MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK, WITH THE  
EXCLUSION OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS REGION NY, AND THE WYOMING AND  
POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION OF PA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE LOWER.  
HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE  
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS  
THE SUN SETS AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. QUIET AND DRIER CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY  
MORNING, BUT WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS POP UP AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY  
PARAMETERS ARE SIMILAR TO TODAY, CAPE VALUES MAY REACH 1,200  
J/KG, BUT 0-6 KM SHEAR IS WEAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO VERY  
DRY, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR STRONG STORMS, BUT CAN'T  
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FEW. THERE IS ALSO LESS CAPPING ON SOUNDINGS  
TOMORROW, THEREFORE IF STORMS OVERCOME DRY AIR STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE; SPC HAS OUR REGION INCLUDED IN A  
MARGINAL RISK. CAMS ARE MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWERS TAKING OFF EAST  
OF OUR REGION OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT  
MAY HELP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
315 PM UPDATE...  
 
A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH SW FLOW  
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CENTER OF THE  
BERMUDA HIGH SITTING JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA, LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGS  
GULF MOISTURE UP INTO OUR REGION. WITH HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES  
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HEAT INDEXES  
WILL BE HIGH, LIKELY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN THAT WE  
ARE NOT UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS, THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS WEAK SO  
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM  
PRIOR TO REACHING PEAK HEAT HELPING PREVENT HEAT INDEXES FROM MAKING  
A RUN FOR A 100+. SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NONEXISTENT WITH THE 250 AND  
500 MB JET STAYING WELL TO THE NW. STILL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UP UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, AFTERNOON  
MUCAPE GETS ABOVE 1500 J/KG IN ENSEMBLE MEANS. THERE REALLY DOES NOT  
LOOK TO BE ANY TRIGGERS MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY BUT TERRAIN DRIVEN  
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STILL SPARK OFF STORMS, THEN OUTFLOW FROM  
THOSE WILL HELP KEEP STORMS DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING. WITH THAT,  
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE KEPT HIGH FOR THE AFTERNOON.  
 
SUNDAY LOOKS BETTER FOR STORMS AS THERE IS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING  
IN WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR AND  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES, STORMS WILL BE SLOW  
MOVING AND CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
315 PM UPDATE...  
 
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ACTIVE AS THE SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE  
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE AXIS AS WE  
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO  
SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLS, KEEPING THE THREAT FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING  
THROUGH SOMETIME ON MONDAY, THERE IS A BIT BETTER SHEAR THOUGH  
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE STILL BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS OF 0-500 MB  
SHEAR SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. AS WE HEAD INTO  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE IS GOOD SPREAD IN 500 MB HEIGHTS  
WITH ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DIVERGING ON EITHER A EAST COAST RIDGE  
OR A TROUGH. MODELS THAT SHOW RIDGING ARE LARGELY DRY WITH LOW  
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF QPF, WHILE THE  
TROUGHING SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN GOING. THERE ARE  
A GREATER AMOUNT OF MEMBERS IN THE CLUSTER SUPPORTING AN EAST  
COAST RIDGE SO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE KEPT AT CHANCE AND  
LOWER MID NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT FORECAST TERMINALS,  
HOWEVER A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH 01Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT SYR WITH THE  
POTENTIAL (20-30% CHANCE) FOR LIGHT, MVFR FOG AT RME, ITH AND  
AVP. HIGHER CHANCES (30-50%) FOR FOG AT BGM FOR 2 HOUR WINDOW  
FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE (50-70%) FOR IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS  
AT ELM TONIGHT TO AROUND 12Z FRI MORNING. AFTER THE FOG LIFTS  
AND MIXES OUT IN THE MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH  
MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 19Z, BUT LOCATION, TIMING AND DURATION  
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR TS WILL BE  
AT BGM AND AVP, WHERE A 30% CHANCE IF POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z SAT.  
A LOWER CHANCE (10-20%) IS EXPECTED AT ITH AND ELM...AND LESS  
THAN 10% CHANCE AT SYR AND RME.  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR CALM TONIGHT WITH A  
SOUTHERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF A STORM PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL,  
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR; POP UP SHOWERS/STORMS  
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). OTHERWISE,  
PATCHY FOG AGAIN SAT MORNING.  
 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH, MORE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED  
RESTRICTIONS. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)  
 
TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BTL/ES  
NEAR TERM...ES  
SHORT TERM...AJG  
LONG TERM...AJG  
AVIATION...BJT/ES  
 
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