503
FXUS61 KBGM 102354
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS FOR TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF I-81.
2) COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING BRINGS GUSTY WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3) PATTERN CHANGE STARTING MID WEEK COULD BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SNOW FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS
THE NEXT SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF I-81
(MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA, NORTHERN OTSEGO, AND CATSKILLS) AFTER
SUNSET DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONE DEVELOPING OVER THE
MID- ATLANTIC, WILL ALLOW THE HEAVIER QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO BE MOSTLY WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA, BRINGING US MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH LOWS WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
EXITING THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AS THE
STACKED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WEAK RIDGING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOWS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO SCATTER SUN TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP, IN THE RANGE OF 50-75 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA ENTERING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA, BRINGING SOME MOISTURE, LIFT AND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS HELPING TO KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THESE PARAMETERS,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SQUALLS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWEST,
AND BECOME STRONG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GUSTS OF
30-40MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THE CHANCE THAT THEY COULD BE STRONGER. NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE
LOW CHANCES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH, WHICH WOULD BE THE
CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS,
VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW A HALF MILE AND ROADS BECOMING SNOW
COVERED AND VERY SLICK WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. AFTER TOMORROW
EVENING, LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE AS RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL US BY MID WEEK, BUT THE DISAGREE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
THIS TROUGH. FOR OUR WEATHER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OR WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY, BUT
AGAIN, NOTHING SIGNIFICANT OF NOTE.
THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT AND IT IS GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY
UNFOLDS WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, BUT WHETHER OR
NOT IT WILL HAVE ANY IMPACTS IN OUR REGION IS TO BE DETERMINED.
THIS FAR OUT, NOT GOING TO HARP ON THE DETAILS ALL THAT MUCH, AS
THE PATTERN THAT THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DAYS AHEAD. THE PATTERN
COULD CERTAINLY BE FAVORABLE FOR A IMPACTFUL COASTAL LOW, BUT AT
THIS TIME, JUST SOMETHING KEEP AN EYE ON, ESPECIALLY IF YOU
HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
OLD RULE OF THUMB WHEN MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COASTAL LOW MORE
THAN 5 PLUS DAYS OUT IS...PLUS OR MINUS 500 MILES...ON WHERE
THE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY TRACK. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CEILINGS A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. A PERIOD OF
LLWS WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 06-09Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST TERMINALS GOING TO HIGH-END
MVFR OR VFR AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 10-15Z AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THROUGH
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WHERE GUSTS 20 TO
30 KT ARE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AFTER 20Z
FROM THE W/NW AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBYS
REDUCED TO MFR OR LESS IN THE SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WITH
GUSTY WEST WIND.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
(MONDAY) AND RAIN SHOWERS (TUESDAY) AT SYR AND RME.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL/MPK
AVIATION...BJT/MWG
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