916  
FXUS61 KBGM 182256  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
656 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
AFTER A CHILLY QUIET NIGHT, THE WEEKEND STARTS PARTLY SUNNY  
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS  
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURN  
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
3 PM UPDATE...  
HIGH PRESSURE, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY, AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO THE  
COOLEST NIGHT IN RECENT MEMORY. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING  
SETUP WILL SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S  
FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD, THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF  
THE TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS ACTUALLY MANAGER EVEN LOWER. THE  
WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS WILL SETTLE INTO MID 50S-NEAR 60.  
 
A LIGHT RETURN FLOW GETS STARTED AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, TO  
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL ONLY SLOWLY LET GO, AND MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO BUILD,  
SO VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHANCE FOR  
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN  
THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS, IN VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
THAT MAY BE LIFTING, YET EVEN THERE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS  
DURING THE DAYTIME.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
3 PM UPDATE...  
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND  
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SUNDAY MORNING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE  
LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY FOR WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN  
THEMSELVES STRENGTH-WISE, BUT SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGESTS  
THAT AT LEAST EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE ANTICIPATED. IF THE FRONT  
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED, THERE IS A SMALL  
CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD GIN UP FROM NEW INSTABILITY ON THEIR  
WAY OUT OF THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-CATSKILLS EARLY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON; A FEW COULD BE GUSTY IF THAT TURNS OUT TO THE CASE.  
ALSO, A FEW OF THE WETTER LOCATIONS IN OUR AREA ARE SENSITIVE  
TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN/ISOLATED FLASH  
FLOODING APPEARS QUITE LOW, GIVEN SPEED AND TIMING OF THE FRONT,  
BUT NOT ZERO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL ON THAT.  
 
LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S  
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS OF 70S-LOWER 80S FROM TWIN  
TIERS NORTHWARD; LOWER-MID 80S FOR WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-  
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
3 PM UPDATE...  
IT HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO FIND MORE THAN ONE DRY DAY  
CONSECUTIVELY IN OUR RECENT PATTERN, BUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT  
WORKWEEK APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REGION  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, GENERALLY  
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW DEWPOINTS.  
 
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS DEPICT THE BELT OF  
WESTERLIES ALOFT STILL BE IN OUR VICINITY, AT THE TOP OF THE  
LOW-AMPLITUDE HEAT RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAVE US SUSCEPTIBLE TO  
WAVES RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES, AND THUS OCCASIONAL  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO  
DISCERN IF ANY OF THE THUNDER COULD BE SEVERE, BUT THE PATTERN  
SUGGESTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD LEAD TO  
STRONGER BATCHES. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD PROVIDE THE FUEL.  
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS WE GET CLOSER.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
655 PM UPDATE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE 00Z TAF PERIOD,  
EXCEPT SOME LOCALIZED MVFR FOG OR MIST POSSIBLE AT ELM IN THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. SOME SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL  
(VFR) CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO AVP, AND OCCASIONALLY ELM-BGM  
HEADING INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MAINLY  
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE TIME AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS EXPECTED.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WITH ASSOCIATED CIG  
RESTRICTIONS FOR AVP AND PERHAPS BGM-ELM.  
 
SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY..MAINLY VFR.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MDP  
NEAR TERM...MDP  
SHORT TERM...MDP  
LONG TERM...MDP  
AVIATION...KL/MJM  
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