321
FXUS61 KBGM 271146
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EST THU FEB 27 2020
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS AND
SHARPLY COLDER AIR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WELL. DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
350 AM UPDATE...
COMPLEX WINTER STORM UNFOLDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN
THE REST OF THE DAY. STRONG WEST/NW WINDS DEVELOP TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WELL-DEVELOPED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, PRODUCING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR
WHITEOUT CONDITION IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE
WIND ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND
BRADFORD COUNTY IN NE PA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.
STRENGTHENING ELONGATED SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SRN QUEBEC TODAY ON THE FRONT EDGE
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM
FOR A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING E/NE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF WARM AIR THAT HAS
ADVECTED IN ACROSS ERN NEW YORK. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THE
COLD AIR MASS IS QUICKLY PUSHING IN. THE CONTRAST OF THESE TWO AIR
MASSES IS CREATING A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND COMBINING WITH
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE THE BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP HAS BEEN AND WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO BE SITUATED WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE WARM AIR. THIS HAS ALLOWED
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.
THE CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
ALREADY SEEN WEBCAMS OVER STEUBEN COUNTY SHOWING HEAVY SNOW EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND EVEN MOST RECENTLY A CHANGE TO SNOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE (ELEVATION 1600 FT). THE TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE MORE INTENSE PRECIP SHIELD WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AT LEAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA WILL COOL FIRST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEEING 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE
SLIGHT UPSLOPE ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
FINGER LAKES MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME OF THE SNOW TOTALS AS WELL.
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COOL AND LIKELY ONLY
SEE AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND
STRENGTHEN. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN NY/VT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN W/NW WINDS.
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY CAN EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS THAT COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
ABOVE 30 MPH AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 50 MPH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER
LAKES OVER TO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
LATER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TONIGHT.
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW
OVER SRN QUEBEC NEAR THE US BORDER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL
THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER WITH THIS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENT. A PERSISTENT AND LONG FETCH ACROSS MULTIPLE GREAT LAKES
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE E-W EXTENT OF ONTARIO. A RICH SUPPLY OF
MOISTURE IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND COMBINING WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT BAND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1
INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TONIGHT IN NRN ONEIDA WITH 5 TO 9 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF
FURTHER SOUTH WITH SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY SEEING FROM A TRACE
UP TO 3 INCHES, AND LESS AMOUNTS FROM THE THRUWAY SOUTH.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN NRN ONEIDA AND ESPECIALLY
FURTHER NORTH WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
350 AM UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A BRIEF LULL IN THE
HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE OVERALL WIND FLOW WILL
BACK SLIGHTLY, ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE SNOW TO THE NORTH, IN RESPONSE TO
THE PASSAGE OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. AS THIS WAVE PASSES, ON THE
BACK SIDE, THE WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE W/NW BY THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
IN TACT AS THIS MOVEMENT OCCURS...WITH THE BAND PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN ONEIDA ONCE AGAIN AND PRODUCING AN ENDING ADDITIONAL 2-5
INCHES OF SNOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. THE FLOW
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST AS WELL. THEREFORE THE AIR MASS TRACKING OVER LAKE ONTARIO
WILL BE MUCH DRIER, AND GIVEN THE NWLY FLOW, WILL LIKELY HAVE A MUCH
SHORTER FETCH OVER WATER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPSTREAM
LAKE CONNECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE MUCH LOWER WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND. SO, EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY, AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO NE PA,
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW IS VERY LOW. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW IS THE AREA CURRENTLY UNDER THE
WINTER STORM WATCH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING GIVEN
BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THE LOW-MODERATE LEVEL
OF CONFIDENCE. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AND HAVE MORE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A
MORE ACCURATE HANDLE ON THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES GO DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY AS TIME GOES ON.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
400 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTHEAST OF ONTARIO BEFORE SNOW TAPERS
OFF AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AS COLDER AIR
PUSHES IN. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF SUNDAY,
WITH HIGHS QUICKLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 30S AND EVEN TO NEAR
40 IN THE WYOMING VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING IN OUR NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION STARTING LATER MONDAY MORNING, WITH
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO START OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. HOWEVER, WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WORKING BACK
IN, A CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. TEMPERATURES STARTING THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY, WARMING
INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEEK WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED UP BY PERHAPS
ANOTHER LAKE CUTTER WEDNESDAY. THUS FAR, IT'S LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN,
BUT SOME SPOTS MAY TURN COOL ENOUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S AND HIGHS POSSIBLY INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH CEILINGS
GENERALLY AT AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FT DROPPING OCCASIONALLY TO IFR
IN THE HEAVIEST OF SNOW SHOWERS. IFR AND EVEN LIFR VISIBILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, BUT THEN A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS SNOW
WRAPS UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT KAVP, KBGM, KELM. SNOW SHOWERS
FINALLY TAPER OFF AT KITH BY THE LATE MORNING, BUT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS KSYR AND KRME THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH IFR VISIBILITY EVEN AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND FINALLY VFR. OVERNIGHT, SNOW MAY FINALLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH
VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR AT KSYR.
OTHERWISE, WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY ARE
STARTING TO TURN GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20 TO 30 KTS THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 40 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS
INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY START TO DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY AT KSYR-KRME; AT TIMES KITH - KBGM.
SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR ALL STATIONS.
MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-
037-044>046-055>057.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...HLC/MWG
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