240
FXUS61 KBGM 251148
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES DURING THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO EAST COAST
AT THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS EVENING, TARGETING AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
2) WIDELY VARYING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH WARM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY AND THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, DRIVING
THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE ENE, PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WAA
SNOW HAS PUSHED INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT, CLIMBING TO THE LOW TO MID 20S BEHIND IT. HIGH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL DECREASED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
BUT INITIAL RADAR RETURNS WILL BE MOSTLY VIRGA UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS. RADAR SHOWS SNOW STRETCHING BACK TO
EASTERN OHIO AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL BE THROUGH
THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE SLIGHTLY GONE
DOWN, BUT ABOUT 1-3 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE
WILL BE ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND
TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TO WARM INTO THE 30S AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED WITH VALLEYS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA REACHING THE 40S. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WAA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE CAPE
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 50-100J/KG RANGE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS CAPE COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WILL KICK OFF
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LUCKILY THE SYNOPTIC WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT SO
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY COOL AS PRECIP EVAPORATES AND
MOISTENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER, LEADING TO MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT
HITS THE GROUND TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW PELLETS OR SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN
THE WARMER GROUND TEMPS AND THE LATE FEB SUN ANGLE MELTING MOST
OF WHAT FALLS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
OVER N ONEIDA WHERE TEMPS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WESTERLY FLOW WILL INDUCE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE EVENING THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTH INTO THE TUG
HILL REGION. THE 3 DIFFERENT SNOW MODES MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
WILL PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS N ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR N ONEIDA COUNTY UNTIL 7AM THURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALL OF OUR MAJOR MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY, KEEPING A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FLURRY INTO THE POCONOS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF US AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
FUNNEL WARM AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH SATURDAY ABOUT 5
DEGREES HIGHER. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
NOT RECOVER MUCH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE COLD AIR MIGHT NOT CREEP ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO THE WYOMING VALLEY, SO TEMPS THERE MAY CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID 30S. THE RETURN OF REALLY COLD AIR COMES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND N ONEIDA
POSSIBLY FALLING BELOW 0.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR RME, WHERE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST
UNTIL AROUND 13Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CNY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AVP
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SNOW THIS MORNING MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO BE
AT RME AND SYR. SNOW CHANCES EXTEND INTO CNY AND MAY IMPACT
ELM/ITH/BGM, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS AS
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS IS
ALSO SOMEWHAT UNSURE AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
ONSET OF SNOW DIFFERING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. AVP SHOULD REMAIN
VFR AND OUT OF THE SNOW.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
FOR SYR AND RME. CURRENTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BAND SETS AND
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR; THERE CAN
BE SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND SYR/RME.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT MVFR CLOUDS
MAY PERSIST, MAINLY AROUND RME AND SYR. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...DK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page