598
FXUS61 KBGM 131038
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NY TODAY. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND PARTLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION AND LIKELY DRY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
2) A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND A FEW WET SNOW
SHOWERS COULD MIX IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY AND SUNNY
WEATHER RETURNS WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY, BUT SHOWERS MAY DIP AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH 80
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CLOUDS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT, GENERALLY ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5 ) FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY,
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL BEING FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. INSTABILITY WILL REACH CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, BUT
COULD BE HIGHER IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTH, AND
BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 40 KTS. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH FOR TODAY
AND BINGHAMTON ON SOUTHWARD INTO NEPA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE AN EML PLUME MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND CROSS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8C, BUT BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE THERE IS LIKELY
NOTHING TO KICK OFF STORMS TO TAP INTO THESE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES, AS THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY
THEN. HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE SOMETHING TO WATCH, ESPECIALLY IF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION GETS GOING. LATEST 0Z HRRR DOES SHOW A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING FIZZLING BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT INTO WESTERN NY.
ALTHOUGH LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT ANY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IS UNLIKELY, THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND A MOIST WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE,
WEDNESDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR CNY, AND LOW TO MID-70S IN NE PA.
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS AND STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
FINALLY REACHES THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, LOWER HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID-60S. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND OUR NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM PUSHES
IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. INTO
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIVING INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS THE TROUGH
HAS BEEN MODELED CONSISTENTLY NOW BETWEEN MOST OF THE MAJOR
GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON IF AND WHERE IT WILL ACCUMULATE IS STILL QUITE
LOW. T850 COULD DIP AS LOW AS -8C TO -10C OVER CENTRAL NY ON
SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ON NW FLOW. LAKE
AMERICA WATER TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM, RANGING IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. SUCH A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN AIR AND WATER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRODUCE A DECENT LAKE RESPONSE AND OUR FIRST
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE IF
THIS FORECAST PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
AT THIS TIME, WITH MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FALLING DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WET SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR, BUT THERE REMAINS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE FOR MID OCTOBER.
CURRENT DATA SHOWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT, BUT NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF AN ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW CAN PRODUCE RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS IS STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH VERY CAREFULLY,
BECAUSE EVEN A HEAVY WET 2 - 3 INCHES COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES
WITH THE TREES STILL HAVING ALL THEIR LEAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES AND A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-20S
TO LOW 30S AREAWIDE, BRINGING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE TO SOME
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR THE CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
THE MOST AFFECTED WILL MOST LIKELY BE RME AND SYR, WHERE A WARM
FRONT COULD BRIEFLY BRING SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO THIS
MORNING, THEN THERE WILL BE A LULL PERIOD ON THE AFTERNOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THE
COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON, BRINGING STORMS YET AGAIN. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC WINDS, AND BRIEFLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS, AS
IT PASSES. ITH COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WITH THE MORNING WARM
FRONT, BUT ISN'T EXPECTED TO SEE ANY STORMS, BUT IT REMAINS
POSSIBLE AS IT WOULD BE ON THE VERY EDGE OF POTENTIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
FOR ELM AND AVP, THEY WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY LLWS WITH THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z. IT'S POSSIBLE FOR BGM TO GET
SOME LLWS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE IT
INTO THE 12Z TAF SET.
ITH/BGM/ELM/AVP ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
VFR FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. FOG IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP FROM ELM
AROUND 14Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG
AT ELM.
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY SEASON SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...KL
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