705
FXUS61 KBGM 010610
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INTRODUCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) A LITTLE WARMER THIS WEEK WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TONIGHT SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP BELOW ZERO ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE REGION. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
TEENS OR SLIGHTLY LOWER. AFTER TOMORROW, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
TO START THE WORK WEEK AND THIS WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL FEEL LIKE A
RELIEF, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL ONLY GET INTO THE 20S.
KEY MESSAGE #2...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT ONTARIO, CANADA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NY,
ESPECIALLY WHEN WIND SLOW SWITCHES FROM SW TO WNW TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING
LONGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ADDING
THIS TO OUR KEY MESSAGE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE
FORECAST BEING THIS IS DAY 6/7.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
LOCK THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS CLEARING NOTED OVER THE
CATSKILLS, BUT FURTHER WEST THESE MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS AT RME AND AVP, WHICH ARE ON THE EDGE OF
THE MVFR CLOUD SHIELD; BUT FOR NOW HAVE IT PERSISTING THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY AND EVEN INTO THIS EVENING AT AVP. RME AND
SYR MAY TRY TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THIS CURRENTLY. CIGS MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT ITH AND PERHAPS
BGM TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ARE FALLING AT BGM AND ITH OFF OF THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES, WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE HERE.
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS DROPPING NEARLY DUE NORTH TO SOUTH
OFF OF SENECA LAKE, BRINGING TEMPO IFR VSBYS TO ELM EARLY THIS
MORNING; THIS BAND SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATER THIS MORNING.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING,
REACHING 6-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS FOR ITH/ELM/BGM AND
AVP...GUSTS UNDER 15 KTS UP AT SYR AND RME.
OUTLOOK...
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LINGERING MVFR TO LOCALIZE
IFR CIGS CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES IN THE COLD N-NW FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY..MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE (25%
OR LESS) FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO
OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...ES/MPK
AVIATION...MJM/MWG
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