708
FXUS61 KBGM 310521
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
121 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK NEGLIGIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY, SO POPS WERE HELD BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. THE TIMING OF
THE INCOMING RAIN AND FRONT HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY, THIS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE TRENDING A BIT
HIGHER NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD.
2) THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER HEADING INTO THE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
3) EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN TO PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STARTING OFF WITH VALLEY FOG AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY. THERE IS A VERY LOW (< 10%) CHANCE
FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP OVER THE CATSKILLS
OR CENTRAL NY WHERE THE SLOW DEPARTING TROUGH WILL STILL HOLD SOME
INFLUENCE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-
80S, WITH GENERALLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE (CAMS) ARE HINTING AT A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WHICH COULD INITIATE A STRAY POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE CATSKILLS ONCE AGAIN.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN ON SATURDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF I-81
BEFORE DAYBREAK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE MILDER AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY SUNDAY, THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH, FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT, ABUNDANT MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION INCREASING PWATS BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES. IT APPEARS A
SERIES OF WARM FRONTS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW LIFTS NORTH IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF STEADY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THAT SAID, IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON; ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS KEEP INSTABILITY AND CAPE
LEVELS AT A MINIMUM ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, IF MORE DAYTIME HEATING WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO FORM. WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE
FAVORABLE, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS AND EVEN LOW LEVEL 0-1KM
SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS INDICATED ON NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT, AS THAT WILL CERTAINLY DEPEND ON DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT. THE 12Z, 18Z AND LATEST
00Z GFS KEEPS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW
IT MOVING EAST SOMETIME MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTH TO
NORTH ORIENTED HEAVY RAIN BAND TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY;
WHEN IT IS ALSO INDICATING PWATS BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES NEAR OR OVER
THE AREA, ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS ENHANCED FURTHER ON THE GFS SOLUTION BY MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY FOR AN
ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IF THIS SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TREND CONTINUES, THEN MONDAY WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEYOND THIS, EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALSO IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISE BETWEEN 570-573DM AND REMAIN
STEADY AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVER
BETWEEN +14 TO +18C IN THIS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. MODEL
CONSENSUS FROM THE NBM SHOWERS CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS
DUE TO ROBUST INSTABILITY LEVELS, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (TDS
65 TO 72F)...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-80S TUESDAY, MID TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE A SLIGHT DROP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID-80S FRIDAY. AFTER DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, IT
BECOMES MORE HUMID AND DEW POINTS REACH AROUND 70S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. IF THERE ENDS UP BEING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE,
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE LOWER 90S AT TIMES MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AFTER ALL THE RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, VLIFR VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY AT ELM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE, THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY IF FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING, BUT ITH AND BGM
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOUR OF IFR
FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE. REGARDLESS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY MID MORNING AT ALL SITES AFTER ANY FOG
BURNS OFF.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, AS A MOIST FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. MAINLY MONDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...KL/MPK
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