729
FXUS61 KBGM 091021
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
621 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
2) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.
3) AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, HEAT BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TODAY AS A TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ADVECT A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S (CNY) TO LOW
70S (NEPA). WHILE IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE MUGGY, CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OPPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEAT HEADLINES.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING
TWO SEPARATE FEATURES CAPABLE OF GENERATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEPA. MOST OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH, THOUGH SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY BRUSH PARTS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS ELEVATED AND RELATIVELY WEAK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT A BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT WILL PROGRESS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FROM STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500J/KG, A FEW
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION,
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUNDING PROFILES
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION, WITH LONG
AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 12K FEET AND MBE VECTORS OF JUST 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS SUPPORT SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THIS THREAT APPEARS GREATEST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. SOME GUIDANCE FAVORS A QUICKER PASSAGE DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DELAY THE FRONT
UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWING IT
NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOULD THE SLOWER SOLUTION VERIFY, A SHORTWAVE LIFTING EAST FROM
WESTERN PA WOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND SPREADING INTO THE POCONOS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRESENCE OF A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COMBINED WITH THE
ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND A WARM, MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS COULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, FURTHER INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THIS SETUP, THE AREA REMAINS
WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO VERY
WARM CONDITIONS, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE +16 C TO +20 C RANGE. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO A TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER
NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING HOW SUCCESSFUL THIS TROUGH WILL BE
IN SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AND DELIVERING MEANINGFUL COOLING TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS UNTIL
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SINKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A
BLANKET OF MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS TO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY,
THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME STORMS, MAINLY FOR KRME AND KSYR.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW/MEDIUM, SO IT WAS INCLUDED AS A
PROB30 GROUP AROUND 19/20Z.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT COULD MOVES IN, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR LIKELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN, MORNING FOG POTENTIAL AT ELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/JTC
AVIATION...KL
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