231
FXUS61 KBGM 161116
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
616 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS WILL BLOW COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION, CHANGING RAIN
SHOWERS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COUPLE WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BATCH OF RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY, SETTING UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK, THOUGH WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES EXTENDING ACROSS THE
TWIN TIERS.
WITH LATEST FORECAST UPDATES, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WAS ISSUED FOR ONONDAGA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-CORTLAND-
TOMPKINS COUNTIES, WHERE 3-7 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. FOR THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR
ITSELF AND OTHER LOW ELEVATIONS, NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
INTO THE HILLS SOUTH OF IT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATIONS INCLUDING LOCATIONS LIKE MORAVIA, LOCKE,
TULLY, FABIUS, VIRGIL, PREBLE, AND EXTENDING TO CAZENOVIA AND
MORRISVILLE. ALSO, THE START TIME FOR THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA, WAS BACKED UP SINCE 35-45 MPH GUSTS ARE
ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE CURRENTLY CARRYING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE ALSO
ALREADY A FEW POWER OUTAGES UPWIND IN WESTERN NEW YORK, AND INTO
STEUBEN-YATES COUNTIES. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR A FEW
HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL GUSTY FRONT, ONLY TO PICK BACK UP LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN THE HIGHEST GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED, AS TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES BECOME QUITE STEEP
PROMOTING MIXING DOWN OF STRONG FLOW. WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACH 50 MPH, BASED ON THE FLOW THAT EXISTS IN THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL START UP WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS MIDDAY, WHICH WILL CHANGE TO NARROW LAKE EFFECT
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER WITH THE WIND
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY QUITE A BIT, SO A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING.
HIGHER TERRAIN TEMPERATURES WILL START GETTING BELOW FREEZING
AROUND MID AFTERNOON, WORKING ITS WAY DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS WE GET INTO EVENING. THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL WAS LEANED
ON HEAVILY FOR LAKE EFFECT BAND PLACEMENTS IN THE FORECAST LATE
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AS IT USUALLY DOES PRETTY WELL. A
COUPLE THINGS ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY ROBUST
SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE BANDS, EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE NARROW
AND SHIFTING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, BRISK CYCLONIC FLOW
CONNECTING GEORGIAN BAY OF LAKE HURON TO LAKE ONTARIO, AND
INSTABILITY EXTENDING UP INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER, WILL
PROMOTE INLAND EXTENT. ALSO IN THE BIGGER PICTURE, A
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WOBBLING IN EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND OVER THE TOP OF THE LAKE
EFFECT; AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE. WHILE 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
FIGURED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ZONES, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF A NARROW BAND PARKS INSTEAD OF
SLIGHTLY SHIFTING AROUND, IT WOULD NOT TAKE LONG FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OCCUR. ALSO, THE INLAND EXTENT WILL CARRY AT
LEAST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WELL BEYOND THE ADVISORY ZONE, FROM
THE FINGER LAKES ALL THE WAY TO THE CATSKILLS AND EVEN FAR
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. ROADS UNDER THE BANDS COULD QUICKLY TURN
SLICK, WITH LOW VISIBILITY FROM BOTH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.
HIGHS TODAY WERE BASICALLY AT MIDNIGHT, WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION CAUSING A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FROM INITIAL
40S, DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY REACHING LOWS
OF 20S TO NEAR 30 TONIGHT BUT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S; SOME LOWER 40S TOWARDS THE WYOMING VALLEY IN
PA WHICH WILL BE DRY. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE,
MAINLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
BRISK, WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
300 AM UPDATE...
INITIALLY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT, WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES DURING MIDWEEK WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING DISTURBANCES.
THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE; EVEN
SIT FOR AWHILE MONDAY NIGHT AROUND ONONDAGA-MADISON COUNTIES
AND SURROUNDING LOCALES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THINGS
SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN TO FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO NUDGE UP A TOUCH TO UPPER 30S-MID 40S
WITH PERHAPS SOME LIMITED SUN AT TIMES IN AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WE GET INTO MORE OF A ZONAL WEST-TO-
EAST FLOW WITH WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES. ONE OF THOSE WAVES
APPEARS TO FOCUS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT, YET CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIX BRIEFLY SKIMMING
NORTHEAST PA TO PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. WEDNESDAY
APPEARS DRY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S, THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN POSE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING A BATCH OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT RIDGING ON THURSDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A SYSTEM WILL BE INBOUND. MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION, BUT AHEAD OF IT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN
MILDER AIR. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 THURSDAY,
THEN UPPER 40S-UPPER 50S FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY FRONT OF THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN PASS SOMETIME IN THE LATER FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT A
40-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT BRINGING MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
RAIN, YET ONLY ABOUT 10-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH GIVEN THE
APPARENT SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
FOR NOW HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM IT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WILL SEE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THIS AS CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT
TIMES. BANDS OF SNOW WILL BE NARROW, SO CONTINUOUS SNOWFALL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS NOT EXPECTED. ELM AND RME WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LITTLE
SNOW. AVP WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WHERE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SOME MODELS EXTEND A BAND OR TWO THAT FAR SOUTH. GENERALLY
WHEN THAT HAPPENS, JUST FLURRIES ARE OBSERVED WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL FALL.
IF A BAND SETS UP OVER A TERMINAL AND COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED, VISIBILITIES WILL CERTAINLY BE LOWER THAN
FORECASTED. THIS IS WHERE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING THOUGH IT IS
HINTING AT IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER TODAY AT
ITH.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE BECOMING SLIGHTLY CALMER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY FOR ITH, BGM, AND SYR. WINDS
STILL GUSTY.
TUESDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT SYR WITH
CEILING RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE AT MOST CNY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS AT
AVP.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-
037-044>046-055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ017-018-025-036-044.
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BTL
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