182
FXUS61 KBGM 131423
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1023 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SET OFF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
1025 AM UPDATE...
GETTING A FEW POP UP SHOWERS NOW, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST, MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BUT STRONG STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY.
605 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 7 AM AND 8 AM AS WINDS PICK UP
AND SUNSHINE BURNS THROUGH LOW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
BETWEEN 77 AND 81 DEGREES ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS THIS AFTERNOON.
225 AM UPDATE...
A WEAKENING TROUGH STRETCHING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. CAPE WILL BE MODEST.
SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND SLIDE EASTWARD, WE
SHOULD SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING.
A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY,
MAINLY EAST OF I-81. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
1245 AM UPDATE...
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE MORNING FORECAST AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE FALLEN TO ZERO IN MANY SPOTS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE OBS AND THE VARIOUS SATELLITE
PRODUCTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
345 AM UPDATE...
A BRIEF QUIET WINDOW OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT THROUGH OUR VICINITY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TO YIELD A BUMP UP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
AFTER LOWS OF MID 50S-NEAR 60 TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TO BE LOWER-MID 80S AREAWIDE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
EAST OF I-81 IN UPPER 70S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE; IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WAVE, YET DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THAN AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS ON LATER THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR A WAVE PASSAGE PROBABLY WITH A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGING TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE MODELS ARE MARKING THIS WITH AM INITIAL WAVE PASSAGE LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOSE CYCLONIC FLOW OF WESTERLIES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADA, BROADLY AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. MUCH OF THE
TIME, EMBEDDED WAVES MAY PASS TO OUR NORTH AND THUS CONVECTION
CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER, THE WAVE THURSDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO INCLUDE OUR REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR THERE TO
BE SOME SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL, SO IN COMING DAYS WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT.
EVENTUALLY, THE DOME OF HEAT OVER THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS, MAY EXTEND SOMEWHAT INTO OUR REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS MAY PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, ALONG WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS, FOR WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 7 AM AND 830 AM. IN THE
MEANTIME, IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KBGM.
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE DON'T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR OTHER THAN POTENTIAL
VALLEY FOG AT KELM LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING.
FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJP
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJP
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