104
FXUS61 KBGM 061056
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
556 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
OCCASIONAL WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, OCCASIONAL GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS FILTERING IN AS WELL, WEAK
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WILL
CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL NY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CUT OFF ANY LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE
DAY, AND WIND GUSTS DECREASING. OVERNIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST QUICKLY
GOING INTO FRIDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT PREPARING TO SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST US LATER IN THE DAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NY AND NE PA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IN CANADA WILL TRY TO DRY OUT
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL
NY IS POSSIBLE, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO HIGH 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE NEXT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER PUSH
OF WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY, WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS, BUT WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOW TO HIGH
20S. AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST,
A STRONG PUNCH OF COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL BE PULLED DOWN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE CUTOFF LOW
AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. IT COULD STALL OUT AND LEAVE MUCH OF
THE REGION WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE COLD AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
REGIME INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS MORNING. WHILE THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ENDED, SOME NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY...MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MVFR-VFR EXPECTED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MWG
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