855
FXUS61 KBGM 071145
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ONEIDA, OTSEGO, DELAWARE,
SULLIVAN, WAYNE AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TRANSITIONING TO A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AND ENDING BEFORE NOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS, TIMING AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AND THAW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT ELEVATION BASED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.
2) PLEASANT DAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THURSDAY.
3)SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN BACK IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECTING A LOT OF SNOW MELT AND
ANY RIVER ICE WILL LIKELY BREAK UP.
4) COOL-DOWN, BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT RETURN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL POCKETS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE POCONOS, CATSKILLS
AND ONEIDA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS LEADING TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN, WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET ALSO NOTED
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOLD
STEADY AND PERHAPS RISE A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH MID MORNING,
BEFORE RISING MORE SUBSTANTIALLY UP BETWEEN 35 TO 45 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE
CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AS OF 330 AM EST. ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW COLDER AIR
ALOFT IS ALREADY QUICKLY FILTERING INTO WESTERN NY, WITH
BUFFALO, JAMESTOWN AND OLEAN RECENTLY CHANGING OVER TO WET SNOW.
THE LATEST 08Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -1 AND -3C OVER WESTERN NY AT THIS TIME,
WITH THE 0C ISOTHERM ALREADY CROSSING INTO STEUBEN, YATES, AND
SENECA COUNTIES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS -2C TO
-4C AIR MASS AT 850MB OVERSPREADING CNY TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF WRAP AROUND
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING, WHICH EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF
AND EXIT EAST BEFORE MIDDAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHETHER THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE WET SNOW DOWN INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OR IF IT WILL STAY MORE RAIN FOR THE VALLEY FLOORS.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD CERTAINTY SEE WET SNOW. HOWEVER
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE 32-38 DEGREES DURING THIS
SNOW/PRECIP, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL WET/SLUSHY AND VERY
MINOR...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH. CAN'T RULE OUT
LOCALIZED WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PERHAPS CAYUGA, CORTLAND, ONONDAGA AND MADISON
COUNTIES. THE SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX WILL BE DONE BY RIGHT AROUND
NOON. THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
(GUSTS 15-25MPH).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHED INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING LINGERING CLOUDS, THIS WILL BRING A RARE MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STARTING OFF IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE NICELY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S
AROUND THE REGION. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTH WIND UNDER 10 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO THE
WEST-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT MAY STILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 (MID-20S TO LOW 30S)
BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILDER WEST OF I-81, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT
CLOUDS INCREASE WITH IT BECOMING OVERCAST.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AND SHOWERS EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE LOOKING LIGHT,
GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SURGE WELL UP INTO THE 40S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 50S. DEW
POINTS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THIS WILL HASTEN THE
SNOW MELT. THIS OVERALL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND WASHES
OUT JUST EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME MODESTLY COOLER AIR
MAY GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE CWA FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID- 30S TO MID-40S. LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING,
TRACKS TOWARD LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
DRAGGING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN ARE LIKELY TO BREAKOUT OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT; BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE
AT NIGHT. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS POINT TOWARD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
OR UP TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS REMAIN VERY ELEVATED SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS 45-55F EXPECTED AND
DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 40S (EXCEPT UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST). THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW MELT ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY THAT NEARLY ALL THE SNOW CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND WILL MELT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. CURRENT DATA SHOWS GENERALLY A TRACE TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, WITH POCKETS OF 3 INCHES OF SWE
NOTED ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN
SUSQUEHANNA REGION IN CENTRAL NY. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SWE EXISTS ACROSS
ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. ONEIDA COUNTY HAS MORE,
WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SWE, LOCALLY 6-8 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION OF THE COUNTY (I.E. BOONVILLE, WOODGATE,
POINT ROCK AND FLORENCE AREA). THIS RAIN AND SNOW MELT COMBINATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES
MAY DEVELOP.
AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT CERTAINLY
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND
RIVERS ARE PLAUSIBLE. THE GEFS BASED MMEFS RIVER FORECAST DO SHOW
ABOUT A 50% CHANCE TO EXCEED ACTION STAGE AT CONKLIN, CORTLAND AND
GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE AT SHERBURNE. CHANCES TO REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE ARE CURRENTLY MODEL AROUND 10 TO 15% FOR THESE RIVER POINTS
NOTED ABOVE. CHANCES TO EVEN REACH ACTION STAGE ARE LOWER AT VESTAL
(25%) AND MUCH LOWER AT OWEGO AND CHENANGO FORKS (LESS THAN 10%).
MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN REACHING ACTION STAGE ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE CHEMUNG BASINS AND SUSQUEHANNA BASIN IN NE PA. WALTON HAS
A 25% CHANCE TO REACH ACTION STAGE, WITH THE REST OF THE UPPER
DELAWARE COMING IN AT 10% CHANCE OR LESS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
POTENT COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE ARE ON SUNDAY, WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COOLER, BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY,
LIKELY 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED. OFFICIAL
FORECAST WENT WELL ABOVE THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE AND WAS BASED MORE
OFF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH FORECAST COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
ON SUNDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, ANY ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LOOKING MINOR AT BEST. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF AS THE TROUGH
LOOKS TO REBOUND AND FLATTEN INTO A ZONAL FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO BEING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO AN ELEVATIONS BASED RAIN/SNOW MIX
STARTING AROUND 13Z THRU 15-16Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL STICK
AROUND WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WARM AIR MOVING OVER A COLD SNOWPACK SHOULD KEEP RH
HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND THUS LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS AND FOG.
AVP AND ELM ARE THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT SHOULD REMAIN AT FUEL
ALT/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR MAY DEVELOP
IF SNOW SHOWERS CAN HIT THE TERMINAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY....MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH OVERCAST SKIES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ009-037-046-057-062.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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