591  
FXUS61 KBGM 051055  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
655 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MID DAY,  
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND BORDERING COUNTIES OF NEW  
YORK. AFTER QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDER RETURNS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
655 AM UPDATE...  
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, AS EXPECTED, HAS PROGRESSED INTO  
OHIO AND STILL APPEARS TO HAVE ITS SITES SET SOUTHEASTWARD FROM  
THERE WHICH WILL LIKELY MISS OUR AREA AT LEAST IN TERMS OF  
LIGHTNING. SHOWERS, THOUGH, WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND SPREAD  
INTO OUR AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTION MID AFTERNOON THROUGH  
EVENING.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
MAIN ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, A FEW OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN  
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN  
TIERS-CATSKILLS SOUTHWARD.  
 
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET AT THE MOMENT, WITH LAYERS OF MID-TO-  
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS AN  
APPROACHING CIRRUS SHIELD BLOWING DOWNWIND OF CONVECTION  
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THESE  
CLOUDS, ALONG WITH MODESTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS, ARE YIELDING A  
MILDER NIGHT COMPARED THE THE LAST FEW. MOST READINGS ARE IN THE  
60S IN THESE FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO DAWN.  
 
THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE ALREADY STRUGGLING EVEN WITH  
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THE FEW THAT DO HAVE A HANDLE OF  
IT, TAKE THE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF THEIR CURRENT POSITION TO  
UTILIZE INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH.  
THAT SAID, ABOVE OUR MORE STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER, A GOOD  
AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS STRENGTHENING LOW  
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALONG WITH A  
SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM ALOFT WILL CARRY SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION  
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID DAY.  
 
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT OUR HEATING TODAY, WHICH IS ONE REASON WHY  
OUR RISK FOR STRONG CONVECTION IS NOT AS HIGH AS POINTS TO OUR  
SOUTH. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE, MOISTURE WILL  
BECOME SHALLOWER AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTRODUCES MORE  
INSTABILITY ALOFT. A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CARRY  
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT ITSELF THIS  
EVENING. EACH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF NOT JUST  
RENEWED SHOWERS BUT ALSO SOME THUNDER COURTESY OF AT LEAST  
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY  
(CAPE). HOWEVER, THE COMPLEX NOW IN MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY INDEED  
DIVE ACROSS OHIO INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL  
COMPLICATE THINGS INCLUDING REDUCING OUR PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER  
THUNDERSTORMS. PART OF THE UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IS IF THAT COMPLEX  
FALLS APART OR BECOMES TOO DISTANT TO IMPACT OUR CHANCES; AND  
THUS PERHAPS UP TO 1000 OR SO J/KG OF CAPE THAT COULD BE  
HARVESTED BY ANY NEW CLUSTERS IN OUR AREA. THE LATER TIMING OF  
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF THIS EVENING, MAY ALSO RENDER MOOT WHAT  
HAPPENS WITH THAT OTHER CONVECTION FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH. THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TWIN TIERS-CATSKILLS SOUTHWARD, WITH A  
SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SLIGHT RISK RELEGATED TO REACHING ONLY  
UP TO ABOUT HAZLETON.  
 
ACTIVITY GREATLY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT  
PRESSES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH EVENTUAL LOWS OF UPPER 50S TO  
UPPER 60S. STILL, LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SPOTTY POST-FRONTAL  
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY  
ITSELF, CLOUDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SCATTER AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY  
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE  
CHANGED WITH HIGHS OF MID 70S-LOWER 80S; THE SLIGHT CHANGE OF  
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
315 AM UPDATE...  
 
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, CHANCES FOR  
RAIN RETURN INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST/NORTHEASTWARD  
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE FROM  
PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES, WHICH HELD OFF ON OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR  
RAIN UNTIL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND THE OPERATIONAL EURO IS  
STILL HOLDING ON TO THAT LATER ONSET TIME FOR OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR  
RAIN. WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY, POPS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT CHANCE. SOME  
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS SEASONAL, STARTING IN THE 50S  
AND LOWER 60S EACH MORNING BEFORE PEAKING IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S  
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
315 AM UPDATE...  
 
COOLER, DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT BY FRIDAY  
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL  
THEN ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO  
STAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD  
LATER MONDAY AND RAIN CHANCES FINALLY START TO WORK BACK IN. EXPECT  
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS AS  
FLOW SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ADVECTS IN A WARMER  
AIRMASS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY PRESENT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH DEVELOPING  
SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS MID DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDER  
MAY OCCUR AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE  
IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR KAVP TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE.  
FARTHER NORTH, INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AND COVERAGE OF STORMS  
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. AT LEAST SHOWERS THOUGH ARE ANTICIPATED  
FOR ALL TERMINALS. ALSO, AS THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM PRESSES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING, WE ANTICIPATE FUEL  
ALTERNATE TO IFR CEILINGS TO FORM. AS FOR WINDS, THEY WILL VEER  
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES THROUGH EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  
INITIAL VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND, WILL BECOME MORE  
SOUTHERLY 8-12 KNOTS LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTHWEST TO  
WEST AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AND EVEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT; SEE  
TAFS FOR SPECIFICS. ALSO, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET STRONG  
ENOUGH TO POSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KITH-KSYR-KBGM-KELM IN  
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS INTO MORNING, BUT  
BECOMING VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MID DAY...MOIST FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY DRIFTING NORTHWARD MAY CAUSE CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO  
REDEVELOP FOR KELM-KAVP-KBGM; PERHAPS KITH. VFR KSYR-KRME.  
 
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED  
THUNDER COULD CAUSE INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MDP  
NEAR TERM...MDP  
SHORT TERM...HLC  
LONG TERM...HLC  
AVIATION...MDP  
 
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