159  
FXUS61 KBGM 180520  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
120 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION  
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT  
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE NE U.S TODAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING  
IN THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN SW RETURN FLOW, SETTING  
UP WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT REACHES WESTERN NY SUNDAY  
EVENING, BUT OUT CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR  
TERM PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
SW FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE  
FINGER LAKES REGION TOPPING OUT NEAR 35 MPH.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING  
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LOOKING  
VERY STRONG, IN THE 50 TO 70 KNOT RANGE, BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO  
NO SURFACE INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO INCREASE TO 6.5  
TO 7C/KM WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN ALOFT SO CAN'T RULE OUT THE  
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY  
INTO MONDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR, ANY STORM THAT IS  
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND GET ANY DEPTH TO IT, WILL LIKELY HAVE THE  
ABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONG SURFACE WINDS.  
 
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLY AND DEEPENS AS  
IT HEADS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE  
LOW SWITCH OUT OF THE NW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK  
SIDE OF THE LOW IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE, SO WINDS MONDAY WILL BE  
LIGHTER AS THERE IS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME  
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY MONDAY, LARGELY FAVORING  
CNY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
NOT MANY CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF  
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES IN MID WEEK,  
WITH MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED  
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS THE WEEKEND LOW WILL HAVE SCOURED OUT  
MOST OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TIME  
FOR RETURN FLOW TO BRING ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE  
NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER WITH GOOD ODDS OF  
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW 0C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
ALSO HAVE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS WE  
SIT UNDER A LONG WAVE TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN.  
IT DOES NOT QUITE LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO GET SNOW TO MIX IN WITH  
THE LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR ON SUNDAY, BUT MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS  
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (GREATER THAN 70 PCT CHANCE)  
WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ...A FEW MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE  
(40-50 PCT) DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK  
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK  
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPK  
LONG TERM...AJG/MPK  
AVIATION...MPK  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab PA Page
Main Text Page