164
FXUS61 KBGM 292326
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
726 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
2) AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL, BUT MOSTLY DRY.
3) THE BLOCKING PATTERN ERODES LATE NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND WILL BE
BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT, ALONG
WITH THE SHOWERS, WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NBM POPS
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT TOO LOW, SO KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS,
WHICH HAVE 30 - 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE NAM INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MUCAPE VALUES
OF 200 TO 300 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA/MOHAWK VALLEY AND TUG
HILL PLATEAU REGION. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
FINALLY, DECENT THICKNESS PACKING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE FRONT AND SURROUNDING IT'S ASSOCIATED LOW SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. PEAK GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 25 TO 30 MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND COULD EXCEED 40 MPH
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SUB- ZERO 850MB AIR BRIEFLY PASSING
OVERHEAD. COOL AIR COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAKE IT FEEL SLIGHTLY BLUSTERY TO START
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE END OF MAY. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB TOMORROW, ONLY MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER AIR OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT AT
THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AS THEY CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP AND A
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSE TO OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH WITHIN THE
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXACTLY WHERE THIS SETS UP WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH OF THE REGION WILL OBSERVE OFF- AND-ON RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. ALSO, WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW,
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, SO ANY SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE LOW DRIFTING EAST, SOME BY MIDWEEK, LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
GUIDANCE ON THE LOW'S LOCATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL FLATTEN AND THE LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD, LEADING TO THE
OMEGA BLOCK ERODING. MODELS SOMETIMES TEND TO BREAK THESE
PATTERNS DOWN TOO QUICKLY, SO TIME WILL TELL IF THIS ACTUALLY
COMES TO FRUITION. IF THE PATTERN DOES BREAK DOWN, THEN THIS
WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND IF THERE ARE WEAK
PERTURBATIONS PUSHING THROUGH, THEN SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AND VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN CNY. COULD BE A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD
WHERE THE CEILINGS ALTERNATE CATEGORIES TOO. CEILINGS SHOULD
LIFT AND BURN OFF BETWEEN 12-17Z SATURDAY. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...MWG
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