709
FXUS61 KBGM 301036
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
636 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1)UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
2) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD.
3) THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER HEADING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR NEW
YORK CITY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT
ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORM WILL MOVE
NORT-NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON; WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE CATSKILLS OF EAST-CENTRAL NY. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF
SUN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWER AND T'STORM
ACTIVITY). THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S
AREAWIDE TODAY, WHILE IT REMAIN HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH AROUND 500 J/KG, BUT SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT, ONLY AROUND 20 KTS.
WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
THE RAIN SHOWERS END TONIGHT AND SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. WINDS TURN
LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SETUP TO SEE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS DIP DOWN INTO
THE MID-50S AND LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FRIDAY IS LOOKING GENERALLY DRY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A 1015MB SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP OVER THE CATSKILLS WHERE THE SLOW
DEPARTING TROUGH WILL STILL HOLD SOME INFLUENCE. TEMPERATURES WARM
TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS, INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S, WITH
GENERALLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF
SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE DRIFTING EASTWARD. CAN'T RULE OUT A LATE DAY
SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OR FINGER LAKES AS
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE, SKIES
ARE FORECAST TO BE PARTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY; WELL INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BY SUNDAY, THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH, FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD ON THE TIMING
AND POSITION OF THESE FEATURES. THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES; PWATS RISE
BETWEEN 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
POTENTIALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, AS THAT
WILL CERTAINLY DEPEND ON DAY TIME SURFACE HEATING. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RISK FOR EXCESSIVE, HEAVY RAINFALL AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DRIES OUR AREA BY MONDAY,
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. BEYOND THIS, EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START PULLING OUT OF THE REGION
TODAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
VFR LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE NORTH/NW
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...MPK
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