777
FXUS61 KBGM 170009
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
809 PM EDT FRI APR 16 2021
SYNOPSIS
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW INTO TONIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
650 PM UPDATE...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING OVER
CAPE COD. CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO PULL
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING, SO HAVE INCREASED POP
ACCORDINGLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. ALSO, HAVE
KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN
SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
CAUSE RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT, STILL MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN, AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
BASED ON RADAR SIGNATURES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SLOW
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOW MOVES EASTWARD. WITH MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW, CLOUDINESS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY
LINGER. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR MOST OF SATURDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGH SUN ANGLE, A
FEW POP UP SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SATURDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S.
SATURDAY NIGHT, WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S.
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS. DIURNAL HEATING UNDER FAIRLY COOL AIR
ALOFT, MAY RESULT IN A FEW WIDELY- SPACED- OUT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS POPPING UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS DESPITE A DRY FORECAST. LOWS AGAIN GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ONE MORE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A BRIEF
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO
MID-60S.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL TURN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 70.
THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS ACTIVE AS A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY AMONGST GUIDANCE
WITH THE 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. NONETHELESS, A
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME
MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AS ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID-30S.
THURSDAY MAY CONSIST OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION IN WHICH SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE, SO WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS AT
THIS TIME. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN ON FRIDAY DUE TO
RISING HEIGHTS AND A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN, WITH SOME RAIN/WET SNOW MIXED AT KBGM/KITH INTO
THIS EVENING. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR OR
MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH
PREVAILING IFR TO OCCASIONAL ALTERNATE MINIMUM RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KBGM/KITH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY END BY LATER THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR POCKETS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH IFR LEVELS AGAIN AT
KBGM/KITH AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY, WITH CIGS RISING TO
MVFR BY AROUND 15Z, THEN MAINLY VFR AFTER 18-20Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN STRAY RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, BUT MOSTLY
VFR.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING, CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MPK
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MJM/JPV
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