777  
FXUS61 KBGM 170009  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
809 PM EDT FRI APR 16 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL  
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW INTO TONIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN  
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MODERATION  
OF TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
650 PM UPDATE...  
 
STACKED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING OVER  
CAPE COD. CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL  
REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO PULL  
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING  
ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING, SO HAVE INCREASED POP  
ACCORDINGLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. ALSO, HAVE  
KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS AS THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN  
SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
SLOW MOVING NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO  
CAUSE RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH  
COLD AIR ALOFT, STILL MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
HIGHEST TERRAIN, AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SMALL HAIL  
BASED ON RADAR SIGNATURES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER  
30S TO MID 40S.  
 
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SLOW  
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM ONLY SLOW MOVES EASTWARD. WITH MOIST CYCLONIC  
FLOW, CLOUDINESS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY  
LINGER. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR MOST OF SATURDAY WHICH WILL  
LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE  
MORNING. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGH SUN ANGLE, A  
FEW POP UP SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS  
SATURDAY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT, WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT  
PRECIPITATION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH LOWS  
MAINLY IN THE 30S.  
 
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO  
MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS. DIURNAL HEATING UNDER FAIRLY COOL AIR  
ALOFT, MAY RESULT IN A FEW WIDELY- SPACED- OUT INSTABILITY  
SHOWERS POPPING UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
MODERATE ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR  
60 SUNDAY.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME MID AND HIGH  
CLOUDS DESPITE A DRY FORECAST. LOWS AGAIN GENERALLY IN THE 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ONE MORE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A BRIEF  
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH  
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO  
MID-60S.  
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. MONDAY NIGHT  
WILL TURN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TUESDAY AND  
TUESDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF  
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM  
THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP  
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
NEAR 70.  
 
THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS ACTIVE AS A  
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS  
THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY AMONGST GUIDANCE  
WITH THE 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. NONETHELESS, A  
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF  
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME  
MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO A  
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AS ANY LINGERING  
PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SOME AREAS,  
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S  
TO MID-30S.  
 
THURSDAY MAY CONSIST OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGING  
THROUGH THE REGION IN WHICH SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH  
THIS FEATURE, SO WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS AT  
THIS TIME. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN ON FRIDAY DUE TO  
RISING HEIGHTS AND A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL  
LIGHT RAIN, WITH SOME RAIN/WET SNOW MIXED AT KBGM/KITH INTO  
THIS EVENING. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR OR  
MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE AT MOST OF OUR TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH  
PREVAILING IFR TO OCCASIONAL ALTERNATE MINIMUM RESTRICTIONS ARE  
LIKELY AT KBGM/KITH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY END BY LATER THIS  
EVENING, ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR POCKETS OF  
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW  
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH IFR LEVELS AGAIN AT  
KBGM/KITH AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.  
 
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY, WITH CIGS RISING TO  
MVFR BY AROUND 15Z, THEN MAINLY VFR AFTER 18-20Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS  
POSSIBLE IN STRAY RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS, BUT MOSTLY  
VFR.  
 
WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING, CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AS  
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS  
LIKELY.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JAB  
NEAR TERM...JAB/MPK  
SHORT TERM...MDP  
LONG TERM...MDP  
AVIATION...MJM/JPV  
 
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