701
FXUS61 KBGM 190541
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER,
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND DIURNAL
HEATING WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
2) THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. HOWEVER, AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED, THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING,
THAT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V, WITH PLENTY
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. UPPER
TROUGHING WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS DURING MAX HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. NONETHELESS, NBM IS STILL SHOWING RAIN
CHANCES OVER 80 PERCENT. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
0Z RUN, BUT STILL BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND NEPA. ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW AT LEAST MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EURO ENS SHOWS MOISTURE MAKING
IT FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY, WHILE THE NAEFS KEEPS MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND GRAZING NEPA. WHICH
SOLUTION COMES TO FRUITION WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST. NOT NECESSARILY IN THE RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE
EURO ENS HAS PWATS OF 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND WOULD PRODUCE MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THAN THE NAEFS SOLUTION. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE FORECAST UNFOLDS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CIGS WERE REMOVED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CLOUD BASES
HAVE STARTED TO RISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 18Z, MAINLY ACROSS CNY. RIGHT NOW,
PROB30S WERE USED AT ELM AND BGM, THEN TEMPOS AT ITH AND SYR
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
RME MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID SHOWERS, AND AVP IS
LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH FOR ANY SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED
INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
RAIN, RESTRICTIONS, AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE TUESDAY BUT LINGERING SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/MPK
AVIATION...AJG/BTL
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