634  
FXUS61 KBGM 181048  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
648 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS BREAK FOR PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE  
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. A COOL, DRY, FALL  
LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. FROST IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FREEZE  
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
645 AM UPDATE...  
 
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO MATCH UP  
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL EXPECTING SUNNY  
TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH  
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER COOL OUT THERE MUCH OF THE DAY.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF  
FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS  
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND EVEN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGH  
VALLEYS OF THE CATSKILLS.  
 
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING UNDER STILL SOMEWHAT  
MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW; MAINLY ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS, WESTERN  
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER  
QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS. THIS SPRAWLING HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR  
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE, BUT A DECENT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL  
BRING BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AREAWIDE. MODEST COLD AIR  
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OVER THE REGION, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES  
FALL FROM +5C THIS MORNING TO +2C BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE  
BELOW AVERAGE TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S ACROSS CNY, AND INTO THE 60S ACROSS NE PA.  
 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN  
PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE  
WHOLE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH, BUT REMAIN  
SOMEWHAT STEADY AT 3 TO 8 MPH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. SOME OF THE  
DEEPER, MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS SHOULD COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WITH  
CALM WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS COLD, DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS  
COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MUCH OF  
CNY AND NE PA LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROGGED TO FALL  
BETWEEN 32 TO 38 ACROSS CNY (EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40  
NEAR THE FINGER LAKES AND IMMEDIATE SYRACUSE METRO AREA). A FEW  
COLDER READINGS AT OR JUST BELOW 32 ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS  
FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND ALSO IN THE HIGH RURAL VALLEYS OF  
THE CATSKILLS. FROST ADVISORY OUT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT  
YATES, SENECA, CAYUGA AND LUZERNE COUNTIES. FREEZE WARNING OUT  
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA. HEADLINES IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM  
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE WINDS MAY  
IMPACT FROST FORMATION, BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING  
OFFICES DECIDED TO ISSUE THE HEADLINES.  
 
A COLD START SATURDAY MORNING, AND WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION  
THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL  
AVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY  
STILL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS RELAX A BIT, FORECAST TO BE  
NORTH-NORTHEAST 6-12 MPH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT RIGHT  
AROUND 0 TO -2C, AND THICKNESSES ARE AROUND 546DM. THIS SUPPORTS  
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY ION THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
350 AM UPDATE...  
COOL AND AT TIMES FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER DRY  
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLEAR SKY.  
 
THOUGH WE HAVE SOME FROST-FREEZE HEADLINES ALREADY OUT PRIOR TO  
THIS PERIOD, THE FOLLOWING NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE  
CHILLY. SATURDAY NIGHT IN PARTICULAR WILL TURN OUT FOR MANY  
LOCATIONS TO BE THE COLDEST ONE OF THESE SEVERAL NIGHTS. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE SEAWAY  
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE SPRAWLED OVER OUR WHOLE REGION. IDEAL  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, WITH ONLY A VERY LIGHT  
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FOR HILLTOPS AND DECOUPLED/CALM WIND IN  
VALLEYS, WILL RESULT IN LOWS OF 30 TO 37 DEGREES BY DAWN SUNDAY.  
THUS, EVEN THE FINGER LAKES AREA OF NY AND THE WYOMING-DELAWARE  
VALLEYS IN PA WILL BE VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST; AND IT MAY BE  
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE WITH SEVERAL SPOTS AROUND FREEZING.  
THIS MAY END THE GROWING SEASON FOR SOME AREAS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKEWISE POSE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND THUS  
A REPEAT OF FROST-FREEZE POTENTIAL. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE AIR  
MASS WILL BE MODERATING SLIGHTLY, BUT AT LEAST PATCHY FROST  
STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR OUR TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE  
TWIN TIERS-UPPER SUSQUEHANNA-CATSKILLS-ONEIDA COUNTY AREAS.  
 
AS FOR DAYTIMES, WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGE-AND-IN-CHARGE, PLENTY  
OF SUNSHINE WILL PERSIST. HIGHS OF MID 50S-LOWER 60S SUNDAY,  
THEN UPPER 50S-MID 60S MONDAY; PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 60S IN THE  
WYOMING VALLEY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
355 AM UPDATE...  
TEMPERATURES TREND A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WITH  
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THAT SAID, MODELS DO SHOW SOME UPPER WAVES  
STARTING TO DROP INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,  
WHICH COULD POSE CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS. A SHOWER CANNOT  
TOTALLY BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY, BUT EVEN IF A WAVE WEAK MANAGES  
TO GET INTO THE AREA, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO  
OVERCOME IN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
WILL POSE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH DECENT MODEL  
AGREEMENT ON SOME SORT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE  
REGION. THAT SAID, NOTHING HIGH IMPACT IF FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.  
 
AFTER A COOL START TUESDAY, WITH AUTUMNAL EQUINOX AT 930 AM;  
HIGHS GET TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THEN FOR  
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED  
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A NORTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SOME SCT TO BKN LOWER/MID LEVEL  
STRATUS CLOUDS TO THE REGION, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
12-15Z THIS MORNING. MOST TAF SITES ARE ALREADY VFR, WITH CLOUD  
BASES BETWEEN 3.5 TO 6K FT AGL. KAVP MAY SEE OCCASIONAL LOWER  
CLOUD BASES, WITH TEMPO FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS THROUGH 12-14Z THIS  
MORNING. AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO  
QUICKLY DIMINISH AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, BRINGING VFR  
CONDITIONS. EXPECT GENERALLY SKC ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON,  
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS  
THAT VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIMIT THIS FOG.  
 
NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING BETWEEN  
10-20 KTS LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS  
THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BETWEEN 4-8 KTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG AT  
KELM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
HERE IS A LOOK AT THE DAILY RECORD LOWS, WHICH WILL BE AT LEAST  
APPROACHED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS:  
 
SYRACUSE................SEPT 19TH 34/1943, SEPT 20TH 34/1993  
BINGHAMTON..............SEPT 19TH 35/1959, SEPT 20TH 29/1993  
SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE...SEPT 19TH 34/1959, SEPT 20TH 33/1993  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
PAZ038>040-043-044-048-072.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
NYZ018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
NYZ009.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MJM  
NEAR TERM...MJM  
SHORT TERM...MDP  
LONG TERM...MDP  
AVIATION...MJM  
CLIMATE...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page