855
FXUS61 KBGM 020530
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ESPECIALLY
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES THEN FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENDING CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. A FEW PLACES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNY MAY SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN PRIOR TO THE
RAIN COMING TO AN END. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE MID-LEVELS
DRYING OUT SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS
MAY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND THERE MAY BE JUST A SMALL WINDOW
WITH ENOUGH BREAKS AROUND THE FINGER LAKES FOR SOME PATCHY FROST
TO FORM PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WYOMING AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEYS A
LITTLE WARMER IN THE LOWER 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY LATER TODAY
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
PUSHING EAST. THIS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP COOL, CANADIAN AIR STREAMING OVER THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY.
WITH COLD AIR ALOFT, ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE ON MODEL SOUNDINGS, ANY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. IN FACT, THE NBM
KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE
CAMS AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FINGER
LAKES AND NE PA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID
50S.
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH, CLEARING SKIES
AND THAT COLD AIR STILL BEING ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH, THE INGREDIENTS ARE ALL THERE FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S,
WITH SOME MID 30S AROUND SOME OF THE IMMEDIATE FINGER LAKES AND
IN THE WYOMING VALLEY. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LUZERNE
AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES, AND HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AROUND THE
FINGER LAKES AFTER THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT EXPIRES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH THE RETURN
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER AS SOME RIPPLES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVE
THROUGH. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, SENDING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS RETURN
TO THE 40S AND 50S.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST AND
EVENTUALLY STALLS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH WITH
REGARDS TO THE ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION AND WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND FOR HOW LONG WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO THURSDAY. IF RAIN CAN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THAT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDER WITH
THE GFS AND EURO SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS FAR OUT
WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR. THE GFS SHOWS DECENT LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 7 C/KM, SO IT'S
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY INCHES EASTWARD THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT AND
FINALLY PULLS THE FRONT OUT OF THE REGION AS THE LOW CURVES BACK
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY. TO ADD TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS WITH LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER, DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AROUND SUNRISE
AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR FROM MID MORNING
ONWARDS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY VFR, BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ044-047.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015>018.
DISCUSSION...BTL/DK
AVIATION...DK/MPK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page