182  
FXUS61 KBGM 131423  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
1023 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SET OFF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS  
OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS  
QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
1025 AM UPDATE...  
 
GETTING A FEW POP UP SHOWERS NOW, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD  
OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING  
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST, MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. A  
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BUT STRONG STORMS ARE  
UNLIKELY.  
 
605 AM UPDATE...  
 
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 7 AM AND 8 AM AS WINDS PICK UP  
AND SUNSHINE BURNS THROUGH LOW CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO  
BETWEEN 77 AND 81 DEGREES ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
225 AM UPDATE...  
 
A WEAKENING TROUGH STRETCHING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY,  
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. CAPE WILL BE MODEST.  
SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND SLIDE EASTWARD, WE  
SHOULD SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH  
PATCHY FOG FORMING.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY,  
MAINLY EAST OF I-81. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
1245 AM UPDATE...  
 
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE MORNING FORECAST AS DEWPOINT  
DEPRESSIONS HAVE FALLEN TO ZERO IN MANY SPOTS WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
FOG IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE OBS AND THE VARIOUS SATELLITE  
PRODUCTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
345 AM UPDATE...  
A BRIEF QUIET WINDOW OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE MIDDLE OF  
THE WEEK.  
 
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT THROUGH OUR VICINITY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY,  
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TO YIELD A BUMP UP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  
AFTER LOWS OF MID 50S-NEAR 60 TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGHS ARE LIKELY  
TO BE LOWER-MID 80S AREAWIDE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHEST ELEVATIONS  
EAST OF I-81 IN UPPER 70S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY  
COMFORTABLE; IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  
 
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF  
OUR NEXT WAVE, YET DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOWS MAINLY  
IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
345 AM UPDATE...  
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THAN AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD,  
WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS ON LATER THURSDAY-THURSDAY  
NIGHT FOR A WAVE PASSAGE PROBABLY WITH A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
RIDGING TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK.  
THE MODELS ARE MARKING THIS WITH AM INITIAL WAVE PASSAGE LATE  
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOSE CYCLONIC FLOW OF WESTERLIES  
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADA, BROADLY AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW  
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. MUCH OF THE  
TIME, EMBEDDED WAVES MAY PASS TO OUR NORTH AND THUS CONVECTION  
CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL  
INSTABILITY.  
 
HOWEVER, THE WAVE THURSDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH FAR ENOUGH  
SOUTH TO INCLUDE OUR REGION. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR THERE TO  
BE SOME SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL, SO IN COMING DAYS WE WILL NEED  
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON-NIGHT.  
 
EVENTUALLY, THE DOME OF HEAT OVER THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEYS, MAY EXTEND SOMEWHAT INTO OUR REGION BY THE  
WEEKEND. THIS MAY PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AT LOWER  
ELEVATIONS, ALONG WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS, FOR WARM AND MUGGY  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 7 AM AND 830 AM. IN THE  
MEANTIME, IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KBGM.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE DON'T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO  
WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... CONTINUED UNSETTLED  
WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO  
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR OTHER THAN POTENTIAL  
VALLEY FOG AT KELM LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING.  
 
FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJP  
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP  
SHORT TERM...MDP  
LONG TERM...MDP  
AVIATION...DJP  
 
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