518
FXUS61 KBGM 300009
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
709 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS FORECAST. CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO TREND FAVORABLE FOR A LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT
EVENT, WITH THE FIRST PORTION DEPICTING A WELL ORGANIZED, HEAVY
BAND EXPECTED FOR ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES, WHERE
1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING COUNTIES AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINING INCREASING WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) A LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NY AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WITH
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.
3) COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BY EARLY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES, FLOW BECOMES WEST NORTHWESTERLY, USHERING IN A
COLDER AIR MASS ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EVOLVING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PERSISTENT GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY, THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE WAS UTILIZED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH HIGHER END WIND GUST POTENTIAL INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NY, WHERE A LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT EVENT BEGINS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND ONLY
MINOR OSCILLATIONS IN BAND ORIENTATION. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH
2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LIFT,
SUPPORTING PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
FALL TO AROUND -16 DEGREES C OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
COLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS, COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
WEST NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW, WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH BRIEF LULLS POSSIBLE AS
WINDS TEMPORARILY SHIFT.
SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNT POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS, WITH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE WARNED REGION.
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO INCLUDING SOUTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY IN
THE WARNING, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER THE
PRIMARY BAND WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO MEET WARNING
CRITERIA. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING BLIZZARD LIKE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COLD, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL THEN VARY BETWEEN WEST AND
NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEADING TO THE MAIN BAND OF LAKE OF
SNOW DRIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION AT TIMES. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS, ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS OF NOW, GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING AS FAVORABLE OF
A SET UP COMPARED TO WHAT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THOUGH SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. FOLLOWING
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL CHILLY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OUR NY TAF SITES THIS EVENING
BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW. STEADIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT SYR AND RME. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR INTERMITTENT
IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ITH AND BGM IN AND AROUND ANOTHER NW TO SE
ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ELM SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. AVP WILL BE MAINLY VFR, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW IFR SNOW SHOWERS EVEN HERE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO GO IFR IN THE
TAF, BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY MORNING HERE.
PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TO RME AND SYR WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 40
KTS RIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
RESTRICTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME BUT
AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY THE OTHER NY TERMINALS. KSYR-KRME MAY HAVE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES, WITH BELOW
1 MILE VISIBILITY.
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NY TERMINALS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MAKING
IT SOUTH TO KAVP.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. LIMITED TO MAINLY
KSYR- KRME BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ017-
044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ022.
DISCUSSION...BTL/ES
AVIATION...BTL/MJM
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