100  
FXUS61 KBGM 241359  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
959 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TODAY. A WARM FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING  
WIDESPREAD RAIN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN MONDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
930 AM UPDATE...  
THE FOG CONTINUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NY AND NEPA. EXTENDED IT  
ANOTHER HOUR. THERE IS LITTLE MIXING PLUS SOME CLOUDS MOVING  
IN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES  
STILL LOOK GOOD.  
 
630 AM UPDATE...  
PATCHY FOG HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1SM IN  
SOME AREAS, SO EXTRA TIME WILL BE NEEDED IF TRAVELING. THERE IS  
A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH CNY, CREATING  
OVERCAST SKIES. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
HOURS BASED ON THE TRACK OF THESE CLOUDS. TEMPS AND WINDS WERE  
ALSO UPDATED BASED ON LATEST OBS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE.  
 
430 AM UPDATE...  
PATCHY FOG REMAINS PRESENT THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE REGION. THE SKIES  
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR AS WELL, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN  
ADDITIONAL AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH MID-  
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS LIKE AROUND ELMIRA WHERE IT IS USUALLY  
SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. IN AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S THIS MORNING, SOME  
PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 
ONCE THE FOG LIFTS, SKIES WILL CLEAR SOME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING  
HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10  
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVER INCREASES IN THE  
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT  
EXTENDS OUT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. A BROAD BAND  
OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS  
EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE LATE  
EVENING HOURS. AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THE  
RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD, CLEARING OUT OF THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PARTS  
OF THE CATSKILLS FIRST. BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY, THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF  
THE RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE MILD AS 40S AND LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.  
 
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF NEPA MONDAY MORNING,  
MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.  
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
WITH THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS CLEARING CNY BY THE AFTERNOON. FROM  
THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS, QPF OF UP TO 0.75" ARE EXPECT  
ACROSS CNY AND THE TWIN TIERS, WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS  
POSSIBLE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE TWIN TIERS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 0.5"  
AS THE OVERALL DURATION WILL BE MUCH SHORTER.  
 
WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION, THAT WILL PUT THE ENTIRE  
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 60S  
AND EVEN LOW 70S. FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WILL STAY IN THE  
50S SINCE THAT AREA WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT, LIMITING THE  
AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING. UNFORTUNATELY, THE PLEASANT WEATHER  
WILL COME TO AN END ALMOST AS QUICKLY AS IT STARTED. THE  
AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS SLOW MOVING BUT FINALLY APPROACHES THE  
REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
420 AM UPDATE...  
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE  
PERSISTENT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND SEPARATE WAVE  
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE PHASING WITH EACH  
OTHER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH  
TRANSFERS MOST OF THE ENERGY SOUTH TO AROUND PA/NY, AND A  
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NJ COAST WITH WHAT  
APPEARS TO BE A MILLER B TYPE EVOLUTION. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL  
NOT HAVE COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR SNOW...SO ALL THE  
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A  
ROBUST SOURCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST  
COAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND GET ENTRAINED INTO AT LEAST THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE STORM. THERE WILL BE SOME COLDER AIR TRYING  
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THE BACK SIDE  
OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE WARM/MOIST AIR WILL DOMINATE AND  
SHUT OFF THE WEAK SOURCE OF COLD CANADIAN TAP FROM THE NORTH.  
 
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR  
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS WHERE  
THE NOSE OF THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED FOR A  
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.5 INCHES OF  
RAIN GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS, DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED  
OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE  
EAST TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD SPARE AREAS WEST OF I-81 WITH ONLY  
A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FINGER  
LAKES/MOHAWK VALLEY. A NOSE OF WEAK INSTABILITY, MODEST LAPSE  
RATES AND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS  
MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED SHOULD  
STAY LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.  
HOWEVER, WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME  
ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES.  
 
THE EFFECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO  
PERSIST LATER IN THE DAY TUE AND INTO TUE NIGHT, EVEN THOUGH THE  
STACKED/DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF THE  
COAST. THEREFORE, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO WED  
MORNING WITH A MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYING AIR MASS MOVING IN THROUGH  
THE REST OF THE DAY WED.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT  
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...AND HIGHS ON  
TUESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE DRY AIR MOVING IN ON WED  
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY THE  
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BUMP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND  
LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
420 AM UPDATE...  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DRY  
WEATHER EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND  
LOWER 60S. THE QUIET WEATHER MAY ACTUALLY LINGER INTO THUR  
NIGHT, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF  
MORE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.  
 
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ANOTHER CUT-OFF LARGE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E/NEWD ACROSS THE REGION  
AND GENERATE PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE  
SYSTEM WILL HAVE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT, BUT AT THIS TIME  
IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. ANOTHER PUSH OF  
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL TRIGGER MORE  
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT RAIN  
WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY  
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME  
MINOR NUANCES THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED, BUT THE LARGE NATURE OF  
THE LOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
FOG REMAINS PRESENT AT BGM, ELM, AND AVP. LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE AT THESE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOG  
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 14Z, WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY VFR  
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  
AN INCOMING WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS  
TO ALL TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY FALL  
STARTING AT 00Z WITH ALL TERMINALS HAVING CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT  
AGL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM 2  
TO 4SM. THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THE SHOWERS NORTHWARD NEAR  
THE END OF THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN CEILINGS IMPROVING AT BGM  
AND AVP. AS THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,  
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT AVP, BGM, AND ELM.  
 
WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY  
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY...FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH; FAVORABLE FOR  
WAVES OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY AT SYR AND RME.  
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY MONDAY.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHILLY SHOWERY LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM PIVOTS OVER REGION, AGAIN WITH LIKELY RESTRICTIONS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BTL/TAC  
NEAR TERM...BTL/TAC  
SHORT TERM...BJT  
LONG TERM...BJT  
AVIATION...BTL  
 
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