375
FXUS61 KBGM 131152
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION FOR THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NY
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN MOVES BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TODAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS FLOW IS
CONDUCIVE TO A MULTI LAKE CONNECTION. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY RAIN TODAY
AND LIMIT ANY SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN AT 850 MB LATER TONIGHT AND SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FROM TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME WET FLAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH VERY
LIGHT IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO
WIND DOWN TOMORROW MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AND A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS, HOWEVER, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND HAS TRENDED WEAKER, AND ANY COLD AIR
DAMMING LIKELY STAYS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THIS UNFOLDS WITH THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
IF COLD AIR CAN HANG AROUND, THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHT ICING OF FREEZING RAIN ON THE TUG HILL AND MOHAWK VALLEY
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AHEAD OF
THE LOW SO RAINFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND BENEFICIAL
RATHER THAN SHOWERY LIKE RECENT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW -6C SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO ALL SNOW IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. BAND
ORGANIZATION OR DURATION IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AND THEN PUSH EAST OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK WOULD THEN TURN ZONAL, SO
SHORTWAVES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MAKING ANY DETAILS IN
THE FORECAST VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO A GREAT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES VARY
GREATLY WITH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. IF THE LOW TRACK NEXT WEEK IS
TO OUR WEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WE WOULD EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION AND POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
STILL A LOT TO SORT OUT AND BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL PAN OUT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRETTY MUCH A RINSE AND REPEAT WEATHER DAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS CNY TODAY.
IFR CEILINGS WILL POP IN AND OUT OF A LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND AT
RME THROUGH THE MORNING, LIFTING TO MVFR/FUEL ALT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH OF
RME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS.
THE SYR SHOULD ALSO SEE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MVFR/FUEL ALT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING. VFR RETURNS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
A NWERLY WIND SHIFT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING MORE
RAIN SHOWERS TO ITH AND BGM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR
AND FUEL ALT CONDITIONS LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVP AND ELM SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPK
LONG TERM...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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