121
FXUS61 KBGM 111800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY. DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE RIDGING WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GET DRIER AND NBM POPS ON EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE NOW. LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY PROFILES WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. AT
THIS TIME, IT IS LOOKING LIKE ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN
DRY CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL AGAIN NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
FAVORING RISING THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT (+14C AT
850MB), SO THIS WOULD LEAD TO WARM DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE GRADUALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY MILDER, GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT AT THE
START OF THE WEEK AND MID 50S TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, FOG IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT KELM AND RESULT IN IFR-OR-WORSE VISBY RESTRICTIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AT KITH AND/OR KRME, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR RESTRICTIONS IS LOWER AT THOSE
TERMINALS AND THEREFORE CONTINUED TO MENTION MVFR VISBYS FOR
NOW. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z OR SO, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG EACH
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT KELM WILL LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...BJG
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