498
FXUS61 KBGM 212352
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGELY DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
645 PM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CNY, WITH THE HEAVIEST BATCH
OFF THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS. NO WHOLESALE CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AND MUCH REMAINS ON TRACK.
320 PM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS CNY WILL TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES AND THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE ON THE RISE
AS WELL TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP IN DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, CLIMBING FROM -16 DEGREES C THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR -10 DEGREES C THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND INTO NE PA, THEN RISING TO -6 TO -9
DEGREES C ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING
AND THE 850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN OVERHEAD, ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRIES NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY WILL DIMINISH EARLY
AND SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE THE
START OF A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THERE
CAN BE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT,
BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE NYS THRUWAY AND STRUGGLE TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIER PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NOT AS COLD TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
12PM UPDATE
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND WEAK FRONTS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL NY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.THERE
WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING OVER NE PA, BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT IS
SEASONABLE, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY WELL OFF TO THE NORTH, NEAR JAMES BAY.
THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA, BRINGING MUCH MILDER
WEATHER TO ROUND OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS; ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS, BUT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ESPECIALLY UP IN ONEIDA COUNTY, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR -2C
TO -3C...BEFORE RISING MORE OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AREAWIDE...AND IT WILL ONLY DIP
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
WET BULB TEMPERATURES DO RISE ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SO THIS SHOULD FACILITATE
PLENTY OF SNOW MELT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
12PM UPDATE
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MILD AND SHOWERY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS AND FURTHEST NORTH LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 30-35 TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BUT THE BLENDED ENSEMBLE (NBM) KEEPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS (RAIN/SNOW MIX) ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STILL
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH CNY AND NE PA SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MORE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT REENTERING
THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT SYR AND RME WITH VISIBILITY
DROPPING TO IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT
SYR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CAN PERSIST AROUND
SYR AND POSSIBLY RME INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY, WHILE MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AT
MOST OTHER TERMINALS. AVP IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME CEILING
RESTRICTIONS CAN LAST THROUGH THE TAF AT RME AND SYR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOW POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS AT
RME FROM LOWER CEILINGS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS AT RME
WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MPK
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