321  
FXUS61 KBGM 271146  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
646 AM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW  
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS AND  
SHARPLY COLDER AIR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NY INTO  
THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WELL. DRY AND  
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
350 AM UPDATE...  
COMPLEX WINTER STORM UNFOLDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH  
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING,  
TRANSITIONING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN  
THE REST OF THE DAY. STRONG WEST/NW WINDS DEVELOP TODAY AND  
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WELL-DEVELOPED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND  
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, PRODUCING  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING AND  
DRIFTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.  
 
A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR  
WHITEOUT CONDITION IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE  
WIND ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND  
BRADFORD COUNTY IN NE PA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30  
MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.  
 
STRENGTHENING ELONGATED SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC  
REGION INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SRN QUEBEC TODAY ON THE FRONT EDGE  
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM  
FOR A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING E/NE THROUGH THE REGION  
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF WARM AIR THAT HAS  
ADVECTED IN ACROSS ERN NEW YORK. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THE  
COLD AIR MASS IS QUICKLY PUSHING IN. THE CONTRAST OF THESE TWO AIR  
MASSES IS CREATING A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND COMBINING WITH  
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE THE BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION.  
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP HAS BEEN AND WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE  
TO BE SITUATED WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE WARM AIR. THIS HAS ALLOWED  
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE  
RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.  
 
THE CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE  
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE  
ALREADY SEEN WEBCAMS OVER STEUBEN COUNTY SHOWING HEAVY SNOW EARLY  
THIS MORNING...AND EVEN MOST RECENTLY A CHANGE TO SNOW HERE AT  
THE OFFICE (ELEVATION 1600 FT). THE TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE  
BACK SIDE OF THE MORE INTENSE PRECIP SHIELD WILL LIKELY RESULT  
IN A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AT LEAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA WILL COOL FIRST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE  
OF SEEING 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE  
SLIGHT UPSLOPE ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN  
FINGER LAKES MAY HELP ENHANCE SOME OF THE SNOW TOTALS AS WELL.  
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COOL AND LIKELY ONLY  
SEE AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND  
STRENGTHEN. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN NY/VT THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN W/NW WINDS.  
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY CAN EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH  
AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS THAT COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS  
ABOVE 30 MPH AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 50 MPH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER  
LAKES OVER TO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN  
LATER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW WIND ADVISORY  
CRITERIA TONIGHT.  
 
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW  
OVER SRN QUEBEC NEAR THE US BORDER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL  
THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER WITH THIS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
EVENT. A PERSISTENT AND LONG FETCH ACROSS MULTIPLE GREAT LAKES  
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE E-W EXTENT OF ONTARIO. A RICH SUPPLY OF  
MOISTURE IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NRN NEW  
ENGLAND COAST AND COMBINING WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS DROPPING SOUTH  
OUT OF CANADA. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT BAND IS  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY BEGINNING LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1  
INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TONIGHT IN NRN ONEIDA WITH 5 TO 9 INCHES OF  
ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF  
FURTHER SOUTH WITH SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY SEEING FROM A TRACE  
UP TO 3 INCHES, AND LESS AMOUNTS FROM THE THRUWAY SOUTH.  
 
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT  
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN NRN ONEIDA AND ESPECIALLY  
FURTHER NORTH WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
350 AM UPDATE...  
THE PRIMARY LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER TO  
THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A BRIEF LULL IN THE  
HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE OVERALL WIND FLOW WILL  
BACK SLIGHTLY, ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE SNOW TO THE NORTH, IN RESPONSE TO  
THE PASSAGE OF AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. AS THIS WAVE PASSES, ON THE  
BACK SIDE, THE WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE W/NW BY THE LATE MORNING  
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY  
IN TACT AS THIS MOVEMENT OCCURS...WITH THE BAND PASSING THROUGH  
NORTHERN ONEIDA ONCE AGAIN AND PRODUCING AN ENDING ADDITIONAL 2-5  
INCHES OF SNOW.  
 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND WILL  
CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. THE FLOW  
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE  
THAT WAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL  
GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL  
ALLOW THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT TO  
THE EAST AS WELL. THEREFORE THE AIR MASS TRACKING OVER LAKE ONTARIO  
WILL BE MUCH DRIER, AND GIVEN THE NWLY FLOW, WILL LIKELY HAVE A MUCH  
SHORTER FETCH OVER WATER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN UPSTREAM  
LAKE CONNECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  
 
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE MUCH LOWER WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW GOING INTO  
THE WEEKEND. SO, EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY, AND POSSIBLY REACHING INTO NE PA,  
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW IS VERY LOW. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY SEE AN  
INCREASED THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW IS THE AREA CURRENTLY UNDER THE  
WINTER STORM WATCH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING GIVEN  
BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THE LOW-MODERATE LEVEL  
OF CONFIDENCE. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AND HAVE MORE HIGH  
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A  
MORE ACCURATE HANDLE ON THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL.  
 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES GO DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY AS TIME GOES ON.  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
400 AM UPDATE...  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MINOR  
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTHEAST OF ONTARIO BEFORE SNOW TAPERS  
OFF AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOK FOR  
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AS COLDER AIR  
PUSHES IN. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF SUNDAY,  
WITH HIGHS QUICKLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 30S AND EVEN TO NEAR  
40 IN THE WYOMING VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF  
THE AREA, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING IN OUR NEXT  
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION STARTING LATER MONDAY MORNING, WITH  
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO START OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS OR A  
RAIN/SNOW MIX. HOWEVER, WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WORKING BACK  
IN, A CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME  
HOURS. TEMPERATURES STARTING THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY, WARMING  
INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEEK WITH  
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED UP BY PERHAPS  
ANOTHER LAKE CUTTER WEDNESDAY. THUS FAR, IT'S LOOKING LIKE  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN,  
BUT SOME SPOTS MAY TURN COOL ENOUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOME  
SNOW TO MIX IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE  
30S AND 40S AND HIGHS POSSIBLY INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID  
50S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH CEILINGS  
GENERALLY AT AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FT DROPPING OCCASIONALLY TO IFR  
IN THE HEAVIEST OF SNOW SHOWERS. IFR AND EVEN LIFR VISIBILITY  
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
HOURS, BUT THEN A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS SNOW  
WRAPS UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT KAVP, KBGM, KELM. SNOW SHOWERS  
FINALLY TAPER OFF AT KITH BY THE LATE MORNING, BUT SNOW AND  
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS KSYR AND KRME THE REST OF THE DAY  
WITH IFR VISIBILITY EVEN AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR  
AND FINALLY VFR. OVERNIGHT, SNOW MAY FINALLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH  
VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR AT KSYR.  
 
OTHERWISE, WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY ARE  
STARTING TO TURN GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND  
20 TO 30 KTS THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 40 KTS DURING  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS FALL BACK TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS  
INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY START TO DECREASE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY AT KSYR-KRME; AT TIMES KITH - KBGM.  
 
SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR ALL STATIONS.  
 
MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ038.  
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-  
037-044>046-055>057.  
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.  
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY  
EVENING FOR NYZ018-036-037.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BJT  
NEAR TERM...BJT  
SHORT TERM...BJT  
LONG TERM...HLC  
AVIATION...HLC/MWG  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page