086
FXUS61 KBGM 210837
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES OUR REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW STORM THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A NEEDED STEADY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MINOR UPDATES WITH THE MIDNIGHT
UPDATE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS BY SUNRISE.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A RAPID CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW
AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER, SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS THE 925 OC
LINE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. SO SUSPECT THE CHANGEOVER HOLDS OFF
TILL LATER TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
725 PM UPDATE...
A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. UPDATED ARRIVAL TIME OF THE RAIN AND
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
AND CAMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN CHANGING TO A RAIN
SNOW MIX IN THE EARLY MORNING MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA, WITH POSSIBLY A CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FIRST SWATH OF PRECIPITATION, BUT COLD
AIR DOES LOOK TO QUICKLY TAKE OVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
525 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 30+ MPH GUSTS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, DECIDED
TO CAP WINDS AT 25 MPH FOR NOW AND THE BULK OF THE REGION SHOULD
SEE WINDS STAY BELOW 20 MPH OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
HIGHER END GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN
STEUBEN COUNTY.
300 PM UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE WELL ANTICIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST
FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THIS EVENING AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A
RESULT SHOWERS ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG SIDE THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING IN LOW TO MID 30S. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, BUT AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT, CONDITIONS COULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
BEGIN TO MIX INTO SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN WARM
DURING THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
300 AM UPDATE...
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WINTER
STORM TO THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A MARGINALLY DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY STATIONARY
AND SPINNING OVER THE REGION WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND SPEED UP
ITS PROGRESSION TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN COOL AIR FROM CANADA. LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO THE
GEORGIAN BAY ON LAKE HURON WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SHOULD SEE SNOW MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS AND BRING
COOL AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL TOLD,
UP TO 0.25IN OF RAIN COULD FALL, CENTERED ON AN AREA FROM
SENECA TO ONEIDA COUNTY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE 40S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
315 AM UPDATE
MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVERHEAD, BRINGING
QUIET AND AND SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE REGION. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
LOOKS TO STREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION OF SAID SYSTEM IS
STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS A WARM AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE CLIPPER, CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH VALLEYS SEEING RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEEING MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT AT RME/SYR/ITH/BGM/AVP AS
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP AND CEILINGS FALL WITH THE INCOMING
COLDER AIRMASS. ELM SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH RME REMAINING IFR. IFR
WILL RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. ELM WILL BE ON THE
FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM SO CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS HERE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW FOR MOST TERMINALS. SYR
AND RME ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN DURING THIS TIME.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY.
SUNDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. VFR PROBABLE FOR AVP WITH MVFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
MONDAY... ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...ES/JTC
NEAR TERM...ES/JTC/MPK/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...JTC
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