634
FXUS61 KBGM 181048
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS BREAK FOR PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. A COOL, DRY, FALL
LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FROST IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FREEZE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
645 AM UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO MATCH UP
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL EXPECTING SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER COOL OUT THERE MUCH OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND EVEN SOME OF THE SHELTERED HIGH
VALLEYS OF THE CATSKILLS.
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING UNDER STILL SOMEWHAT
MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW; MAINLY ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS, WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND NE PA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. THIS SPRAWLING HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE, BUT A DECENT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
BRING BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AREAWIDE. MODEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OVER THE REGION, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALL FROM +5C THIS MORNING TO +2C BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS CNY, AND INTO THE 60S ACROSS NE PA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WHOLE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH, BUT REMAIN
SOMEWHAT STEADY AT 3 TO 8 MPH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. SOME OF THE
DEEPER, MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS SHOULD COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WITH
CALM WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS COLD, DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS
COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MUCH OF
CNY AND NE PA LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROGGED TO FALL
BETWEEN 32 TO 38 ACROSS CNY (EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
NEAR THE FINGER LAKES AND IMMEDIATE SYRACUSE METRO AREA). A FEW
COLDER READINGS AT OR JUST BELOW 32 ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND ALSO IN THE HIGH RURAL VALLEYS OF
THE CATSKILLS. FROST ADVISORY OUT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT
YATES, SENECA, CAYUGA AND LUZERNE COUNTIES. FREEZE WARNING OUT
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA. HEADLINES IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM
SATURDAY. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE WINDS MAY
IMPACT FROST FORMATION, BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES DECIDED TO ISSUE THE HEADLINES.
A COLD START SATURDAY MORNING, AND WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
STILL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS RELAX A BIT, FORECAST TO BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST 6-12 MPH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT RIGHT
AROUND 0 TO -2C, AND THICKNESSES ARE AROUND 546DM. THIS SUPPORTS
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY ION THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
350 AM UPDATE...
COOL AND AT TIMES FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER DRY
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLEAR SKY.
THOUGH WE HAVE SOME FROST-FREEZE HEADLINES ALREADY OUT PRIOR TO
THIS PERIOD, THE FOLLOWING NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
CHILLY. SATURDAY NIGHT IN PARTICULAR WILL TURN OUT FOR MANY
LOCATIONS TO BE THE COLDEST ONE OF THESE SEVERAL NIGHTS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE SEAWAY
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE SPRAWLED OVER OUR WHOLE REGION. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, WITH ONLY A VERY LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FOR HILLTOPS AND DECOUPLED/CALM WIND IN
VALLEYS, WILL RESULT IN LOWS OF 30 TO 37 DEGREES BY DAWN SUNDAY.
THUS, EVEN THE FINGER LAKES AREA OF NY AND THE WYOMING-DELAWARE
VALLEYS IN PA WILL BE VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST; AND IT MAY BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE WITH SEVERAL SPOTS AROUND FREEZING.
THIS MAY END THE GROWING SEASON FOR SOME AREAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKEWISE POSE VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND THUS
A REPEAT OF FROST-FREEZE POTENTIAL. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MODERATING SLIGHTLY, BUT AT LEAST PATCHY FROST
STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR OUR TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE
TWIN TIERS-UPPER SUSQUEHANNA-CATSKILLS-ONEIDA COUNTY AREAS.
AS FOR DAYTIMES, WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGE-AND-IN-CHARGE, PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WILL PERSIST. HIGHS OF MID 50S-LOWER 60S SUNDAY,
THEN UPPER 50S-MID 60S MONDAY; PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 60S IN THE
WYOMING VALLEY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
355 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES TREND A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THAT SAID, MODELS DO SHOW SOME UPPER WAVES
STARTING TO DROP INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD POSE CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS. A SHOWER CANNOT
TOTALLY BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY, BUT EVEN IF A WAVE WEAK MANAGES
TO GET INTO THE AREA, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME IN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL POSE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SORT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. THAT SAID, NOTHING HIGH IMPACT IF FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.
AFTER A COOL START TUESDAY, WITH AUTUMNAL EQUINOX AT 930 AM;
HIGHS GET TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THEN FOR
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A NORTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SOME SCT TO BKN LOWER/MID LEVEL
STRATUS CLOUDS TO THE REGION, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12-15Z THIS MORNING. MOST TAF SITES ARE ALREADY VFR, WITH CLOUD
BASES BETWEEN 3.5 TO 6K FT AGL. KAVP MAY SEE OCCASIONAL LOWER
CLOUD BASES, WITH TEMPO FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS THROUGH 12-14Z THIS
MORNING. AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT GENERALLY SKC ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIMIT THIS FOG.
NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING BETWEEN
10-20 KTS LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS
THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BETWEEN 4-8 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG AT
KELM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLIMATE
HERE IS A LOOK AT THE DAILY RECORD LOWS, WHICH WILL BE AT LEAST
APPROACHED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS:
SYRACUSE................SEPT 19TH 34/1943, SEPT 20TH 34/1993
BINGHAMTON..............SEPT 19TH 35/1959, SEPT 20TH 29/1993
SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE...SEPT 19TH 34/1959, SEPT 20TH 33/1993
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-048-072.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ009.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MJM
CLIMATE...
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