916
FXUS61 KBGM 182256
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A CHILLY QUIET NIGHT, THE WEEKEND STARTS PARTLY SUNNY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURN
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
3 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY, AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN RECENT MEMORY. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP WILL SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S
FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD, THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF
THE TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS ACTUALLY MANAGER EVEN LOWER. THE
WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS WILL SETTLE INTO MID 50S-NEAR 60.
A LIGHT RETURN FLOW GETS STARTED AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONLY SLOWLY LET GO, AND MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO BUILD,
SO VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. BEST CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS, IN VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MAY BE LIFTING, YET EVEN THERE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAYTIME.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
3 PM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SUNDAY MORNING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY FOR WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES STRENGTH-WISE, BUT SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN BE ANTICIPATED. IF THE FRONT
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED, THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD GIN UP FROM NEW INSTABILITY ON THEIR
WAY OUT OF THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-CATSKILLS EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON; A FEW COULD BE GUSTY IF THAT TURNS OUT TO THE CASE.
ALSO, A FEW OF THE WETTER LOCATIONS IN OUR AREA ARE SENSITIVE
TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN/ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING APPEARS QUITE LOW, GIVEN SPEED AND TIMING OF THE FRONT,
BUT NOT ZERO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL ON THAT.
LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS OF 70S-LOWER 80S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD; LOWER-MID 80S FOR WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
3 PM UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO FIND MORE THAN ONE DRY DAY
CONSECUTIVELY IN OUR RECENT PATTERN, BUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WORKWEEK APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, GENERALLY
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW DEWPOINTS.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS DEPICT THE BELT OF
WESTERLIES ALOFT STILL BE IN OUR VICINITY, AT THE TOP OF THE
LOW-AMPLITUDE HEAT RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAVE US SUSCEPTIBLE TO
WAVES RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES, AND THUS OCCASIONAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO
DISCERN IF ANY OF THE THUNDER COULD BE SEVERE, BUT THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD LEAD TO
STRONGER BATCHES. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD PROVIDE THE FUEL.
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
655 PM UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE 00Z TAF PERIOD,
EXCEPT SOME LOCALIZED MVFR FOG OR MIST POSSIBLE AT ELM IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. SOME SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL
(VFR) CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO AVP, AND OCCASIONALLY ELM-BGM
HEADING INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE TIME AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WITH ASSOCIATED CIG
RESTRICTIONS FOR AVP AND PERHAPS BGM-ELM.
SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY..MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KL/MJM
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