623  
FXUS61 KBGM 090238  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
938 PM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST  
OF LAKE ONTARIO, BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. DRY, SEASONABLE AND  
PARTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY  
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW, MIXED WITH VALLEY RAIN. SOME LIGHT  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER  
ON MONDAY, THEN DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
930 PM UPDATE...  
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO KEEP UP WITH FINE DETAILS. SOME HOLES IN  
THE CLOUDS OPENED UP IN YATES-STEUBEN COUNTIES WHICH ALLOWED FOR  
MORE ABRUPT RADIATIONAL COOLING, THOUGH THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY.  
VEERING FLOW WILL SEND CLOUDS BACK INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. IN  
GENERAL, EXPECTATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
AS OF 615 PM, THE CHANCES OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WERE TWEAKED  
BASED ON LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN-  
REGIONAL; LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL CONTINUE  
TO GET SHALLOWER WHICH WILL MOSTLY PREVENT ADDITIONAL  
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT WHERE UPSLOPE AND LAKE MOISTURE MANAGE TO  
EKE OUT A FEW RAINDROPS OR SNOWFLAKES; IN ALMOST ALL CASES NOT  
EVEN MEASURABLE. WITH A LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A  
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, I UTILIZED THE NAM MODEL RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY VALUES WITHIN 925-850MB LEVEL TO SOMEWHAT DELAY  
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81 FRIDAY MORNING.  
HOWEVER, WITH FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERING DRY  
NORTHEASTERLY, THIS WILL TEND TO MIX OUT/BREAK UP HEADING INTO  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM.  
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST COURTESY OF A  
SPRAWLING 1040MB HIGH ALONG THE CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  
WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE  
NIGHT (EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES) DECIDED TO GO A FEW  
DEGREES ABOVE THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...KEEPING  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...EXCEPT LOW TO  
MID-20S FOR ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS (WHERE CLEARING  
LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE LATE).  
 
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING STRATUS  
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE WILL  
SHIFT WEST, SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS  
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES MIDDAY, INTO THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY  
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
30S TO MID-40S EXPECTED. QUIET AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY  
NIGHT, UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE CANADIAN HIGH  
REMAINS IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTH IN QUEBEC AND STRENGTHENS TO  
AROUND 1050MB BY DAYBREAK. THIS DRY NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD  
ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 10S TO LOWER 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
340 PM UPDATE...  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS GOING TO BE A CHANCE OF  
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SATURDAY STARTS  
OFF WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH HELPING SUPPRESS A  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
BUILDS IN HELPING KEEP THE SKIES SOMEWHAT CLEAR IN THE MORNING  
BUT INCREASING SW FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGS IN CLOUDS FROM  
THE SW AHEAD OF SUNDAYS SHORTWAVE.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN  
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE  
SHORTWAVE. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A LESS FAVORABLE  
INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN VORT MAX AND THE SOUTHERN VORT MAX  
SO THERE IS LESS OF A PHASE BETWEEN THE TWO MEANING THE  
SHORTWAVE IS LOOKING A LITTLE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH AS IT  
MOVES IN. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THE SOUTHERN WAVE  
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AND IF THERE IS BETTER INTERACTION WITH  
THE NORTHERN WAVE OVER EASTERN CANADA THAT COULD CONTINUE TO  
PULL THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH  
TO GET PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM  
WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
FROM THIS AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING THAT THE BEST LIFT IS JUST  
OUTSIDE OF THE DGZ BUT THERE WILL STILL BE DENDRITE DEVELOPMENT  
AND THERE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW THE DGZ FOR THE  
DENDRITES TO LIKELY BECOME SOMEWHAT RIMED RESULTING IN HIGHER  
RATIOS. RIGHT NOW 8-9:1 RATIOS WERE USED THROUGH THE EVENT TO  
CALCULATE SNOW TOTALS. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO BE LIGHT  
BUT PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 6 HOUR  
QPF IS LARGELY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
GETTING TO AS HIGH AS 0.15 IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THIS MEANS THAT  
THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE STORM AND MOST  
LIKELY STAY BELOW A HALF INCH PER HOUR. THE LACK OF  
FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL GIVES LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE  
ANY BANDING WITH THIS EVENT THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS.  
 
LOOKING AT SNOW TOTALS AND PROBABILITIES, THE NBM ONLY GIVES  
ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ADVISORY AMOUNTS MAINLY LIMITED  
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT WILL BE COLDER AND SEE A LITTLE HIGHER  
SNOW RATIOS. THERE IS ALSO A GREATER WEIGHT TOWARDS LOWER END  
AMOUNTS AS WELL WITH QUITE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING LOWER END SNOW  
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER  
AND SOUTH GIVEN THE NORTHERN NUDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE IN RECENT  
RUNS. AS OF NOW IT IS LOOKING LIKE VALLEYS WILL SEE 2 INCHES OR  
LESS WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNY SEEING UP TO 3 INCHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
340 PM UPDATE  
 
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING COOLER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATE  
WEEK SYSTEM. SOME SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING AS CAA  
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW  
STEEPENS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES. AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES  
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IT RETROGRADES DUE TO STRONG  
GREENLAND BLOCKING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER  
MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A  
DEVELOPING COLORADO LOW IN THE PLAINS HELPS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS KEEPING US DRY THROUGH  
MID WEEK. THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WAS PUSHED LATER IN THE  
WEEK AS THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS STRUGGLES TO PROGRESS EAST WITH  
THE RETROGRADING SYSTEM IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH  
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN LATER IN THE WEEK AND A MORE FAVORABLE  
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR COLD AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST  
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITATION TYPES WERE  
TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT AND REALLY THIS FAR OUT NOT MUCH TIME WAS  
PUT INTO IT QUITE YET. LOOKING AT THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS TOOL,  
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL OF RIDGING IN ALASKA BUT STILL A  
PACIFIC TROUGH. COLD AIR WILL STILL BE ABLE TO SPILL INTO THE  
NORTHERN US BUT WILL LIKELY BE MODIFIED BY THE TIME IT GETS  
HERE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
BELOW AVERAGE BUT THE ANOMALIES WONT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW  
AVERAGE. THE PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORABLE THAT AS THE SYSTEM IN THE  
PLAINS OCCLUDES, A NEW SYSTEM WILL LIKELY FORM AT THE TRIPLE  
POINT OF THE OCCLUDING FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN US. WHERE THIS LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE THE PTYPES WITH  
A MORE SNOWY SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW BUT A MIXED PRECIP  
EVENT IS MORE LIKELY IF THE NEW LOW FORMS WEST OF THE  
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
630 PM UPDATE...  
 
A COLD NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP STRATUS CLOUDS  
LOCKED IN OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  
 
WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTH, VFR CIGS AT  
RME WILL SCATTER OUT. SYR SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND SCATTER OUT LATE  
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. AVP WILL BE SIMILAR TO SYR.  
 
BGM/ITH/ELM WILL BE SIMILAR. MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND THE  
FINGER LAKES IS LOCKED IN UNDER THE INVERSION. BGM/ITH HAVE/WILL  
BE SOON MVFR CIGS. THIS DROPS TO FUEL ALTERNATE AROUND 10Z. ELM  
WILL BECOME MVFR AROUND 04Z, THEN POSSIBLY FUEL ALTERNATE 11 TO  
14Z. ALL 3 SITES SCATTER OUT AROUND 16Z.  
 
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AT 5 KTS TONIGHT, BECOME NORTH AT 5 TO  
10 KTS FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW  
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY.  
 
TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MJM/MDP  
NEAR TERM...MJM/MDP  
SHORT TERM...AJG  
LONG TERM...AJG  
AVIATION...TAC  
 
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