327
FXUS61 KBGM 251140
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
640 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH, AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY HAS DIMINISHED, AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR SLEET ACCUMULATION FRIDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA HAS INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1)GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH TODAY; VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT.
2) A SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW AND SLEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
3) A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
4) A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW,
BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID- 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTH, WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO MID 10S FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA CONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE THE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN GUIDANCE. SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE,
THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST AND NORTH, AND
MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NE PA, AS WELL AS THE CATSKILLS.
ANOTHER CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN, WHICH HAS DIMINISHED. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS, THERE LACKS A PROMINENT WARM NOSE, AND PROJECTS A
VERY COLD LAYER WITH A BLIMP OF A WARM NOSE EXISTING FOR AREAS
IN NE PA, SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET ACCUMULATION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD REMAIN AS SNOW, WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 C.
WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CREEPING NORTHWARD, WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY WITH
NEWER GUIDANCE RUNS SUGGESTING THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS PUSHING NORTHWARD IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW, WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LINGERING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE, BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM UP AND REACH +5 TO
+8C AT 850MB, WHICH WOULD HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MIX OF RAIN
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-81, INCLUDING
THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
JUST HOW MUCH, IF ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR, MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
THE REGION, AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKE HOLD OUT AHEAD THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT FALLING TO -10 TO -12C BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND JUST HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGES TO WRAP AROUND
AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE MONDAY, MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, WITH STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-40 MPH CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AS USUAL, EXACT FLOW AND THEREFORE LAKE EFFECT BAND POSITION AND
INLAND EXTENT ARE NOT CERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT, IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND
BLUSTERY EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
GETTING DOWN NEAR -20C TUESDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
JUST HOLD COLD IT WILL BE, AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD BE A
FACTOR AT TIMES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES DURING LATER MORNING-MIDDAY
AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY WHILE PICKING UP SOMEWHAT
THROUGH AFTERNOON, WITH 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SOME
LINGERING WEAK LLWS IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO 14Z FOR KAVP. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE CENTRAL
NY TERMINALS, BUT KAVP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD (AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY).
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES FOR KELM-KAVP FRIDAY
NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EARLY MORNING...MOSTLY DRY,
BUT PATCHY FLURRIES OR EVEN SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
WITH LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY
WINDS AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES DOMINANT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ038-043-047.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ039-040-044-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ022>024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ025-044-045-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BJG
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