742
FXUS61 KBGM 111753
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
2) SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
3) ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO GET INTO THE
70'S FOR HIGHS. TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES. A FEW LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 40'S
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THOUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.
ENOUGH LIFT MAY BE PRESENT FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BY SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY.
PW VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES COUPLED WITH A DECENT
LLJ SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
COVERAGE LOOKS HIGHEST CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS THAT SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND HIRES GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING NARROW BANDS OF QPF OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM MAY BECOME A
POSSIBILITY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS IS
REALIZED. WITH THE LATER TIMING, INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SOON FOLLOW WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND SOME CLEARING SKIES EARLY IN
THE DAY, THEN THESE VALUES MAY BE POSSIBLE. COMBINED WITH 30 TO
35 KTS OF SHEAR, SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LACKING SO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A BIT WARMER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW 60'S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
OVERALL, THE COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED STRONGER ON MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH A MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS ELIMINATES THE OUTCOME OF A VERY WARM TUESDAY
SHOWN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WOULD BRING US MORE PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FROM LOWS IN THE 50'S TO HIGHS IN THE 70'S. ALSO
THIS RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE OCCLUDED SYSTEM FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT LACKS INSTABILITY. SOME ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CHECKS UP THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
BECOME A CONCERN.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z
TONIGHT. ELM HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME IFR FOG IN THE
OVERNIGHTS THOUGH THAT IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH IT WILL DRY OUT
TODAY AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEAR BY AND NOT QUITE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SO IF THE DEW
POINT MAKES IT INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN FOG
CHANCES ARE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE AT THIS TIME TO
REMOVE IT.
TOMORROW FOG WILL LIFT BY AROUND 13Z WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING AS A FRONT MOVES IN. PRECIPITATION MAY REACH AVP BY
18Z BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY RAIN UNTIL
AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MWG
AVIATION...AJG/MJM
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