410  
FXUS61 KBGM 241056  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
656 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TODAY. A FRONTAL COMPLEX  
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED  
BY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS EXTENSIVE VALLEY FOG ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN TIER, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.  
THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN  
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS  
HERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP ALL  
AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE  
LOWER 60S IN THE CATSKILLS TO AROUND 70 IN THE LAKE PLAIN.  
 
TONIGHT...A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL VORT LOBE AND MID LEVEL  
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN EARLY EVENING AND MIDNIGHT.  
 
TUESDAY...STEADY RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE MORNING HOURS THEN BECOME MORE SHOWERY DURING THE AFTERNOON  
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE  
NORTHEAST. FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING  
ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE POCONOS,  
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND TUG HILL PLATEAU. BY AFTERNOON MODELS  
INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA  
ALTHOUGH STILL FAIRLY MEAGER BUT WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR  
THUNDER. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE  
FROM AROUND 1 INCH UP TO 1.50 INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF  
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE  
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO PROBLEMS IN THE HWO ESPECIALLY WHERE THE  
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE WET (SOUTHERN TIER/NORTHEAST  
PENNSYLVANIA).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
4 AM UPDATE...  
 
VERY WET PERIOD, IN WHICH THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH A  
STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS.  
 
TUESDAY EVENING THE LAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE FAR  
EAST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE AREA  
WILL ONLY HAVE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM  
SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWEST IN THE EVENING MOSTLY 60 TO  
65 THEN RISE SLOWLY. A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP IT WELL  
MIXED LATE AT NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. DEEP MOIST AIR  
IS PROVIDING HIGH PWATS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2 INCHES.  
 
A STRONG SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO  
QUEBEC. THIS WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NY/PA ON  
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND  
JET. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF AND WITH THE  
COLD FRONT. THIS IS ANOTHER EVENT WITH GREAT SHEAR BUT LOW CAPE.  
INSTABILITY IS BEST IN THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
CAPE WILL BE 500 OR LESS. WIND FIELDS ARE BEST IN NY. WINDS JUST  
ABOVE THE SURFACE 20 TO 30 KTS WHILE AT 10K FT THEY ARE 50 KTS.  
0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR IS 50 KTS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM  
WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH A WET GROUND 40 MPH  
COULD KNOCK TREES DOWN.  
 
WITH THE RECENT FLASH FLOODING THIS WET PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE  
BATCHES OF SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO MORE FLASH FLOODING. WHILE IT  
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT TUESDAY, THE MORE LIKELY TIME FOR  
FLOODING ISSUES WOULD BE WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME  
THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL TUESDAY WILL SERVE TO  
PRIME CONDITIONS VIA SOAKING THE GROUND, WHICH COULD THEN SET  
UP THE PROBLEMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS NEW RAIN ARRIVES. TROUBLE AREAS  
CONTINUE TO BE THE VERY WET TWIN TIERS. AGAIN UPSLOPE AREAS  
COULD GET MORE SUCH AS THE TUG AND CATSKILLS.  
 
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING  
SHOWERS LASTING INTO THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
4 AM UPDATE...  
 
WHILE STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED, THINGS OVERALL WILL NOT BE AS  
BUSY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD COMPARED TO TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
COLD FRONT SHOVES OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ENDING SHOWERS, AS HIGH  
PRESSURE THEN PASSES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT  
ON THE HIGH KEEPING US DRY THURSDAY AS A WAVE PASSES WELL TO  
THE SOUTH WITH RAIN. SOME SHOWERS WILL COME IN THURSDAY NIGHT  
WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES FRIDAY. FOR NOW KEEPING  
SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY ONLY AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SINCE WE WILL BE  
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE INITIAL WAVE IF IT EVEN REACHES US,  
AND THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THE  
FRONT FRIDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOSTLY IN CHARGE SATURDAY. NOT MUCH OF AN  
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY ANOTHER FRONT  
MAY APPROACH WITH MORE SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL KEEP BOTH KELM/KBGM NEAR  
AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH 14Z. AT KITH, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
PERSIST TODAY WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE. OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE  
REGION WITH CONDITIONS FALLING INTO THE IFR/ALTERNATE REQUIRED  
CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH KRME/KSYR FALLING  
TO MVFR/ALTERNATE REQUIRED AFTER 06Z.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOMING  
EAST/SOUTHEAST BY MID/LATE MORNING AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS  
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KITH/KBGM. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KAVP LATE  
TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THURSDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.  
 
FRIDAY...MORE RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RRM  
NEAR TERM...RRM  
SHORT TERM...MDP/TAC  
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC  
AVIATION...RRM  
 
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