591
FXUS61 KBGM 051055
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
655 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2022
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MID DAY,
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND BORDERING COUNTIES OF NEW
YORK. AFTER QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDER RETURNS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
655 AM UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, AS EXPECTED, HAS PROGRESSED INTO
OHIO AND STILL APPEARS TO HAVE ITS SITES SET SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THERE WHICH WILL LIKELY MISS OUR AREA AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
LIGHTNING. SHOWERS, THOUGH, WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND SPREAD
INTO OUR AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH MID DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTION MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, A FEW OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN
TIERS-CATSKILLS SOUTHWARD.
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET AT THE MOMENT, WITH LAYERS OF MID-TO-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS AN
APPROACHING CIRRUS SHIELD BLOWING DOWNWIND OF CONVECTION
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THESE
CLOUDS, ALONG WITH MODESTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS, ARE YIELDING A
MILDER NIGHT COMPARED THE THE LAST FEW. MOST READINGS ARE IN THE
60S IN THESE FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO DAWN.
THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE ALREADY STRUGGLING EVEN WITH
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THE FEW THAT DO HAVE A HANDLE OF
IT, TAKE THE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF THEIR CURRENT POSITION TO
UTILIZE INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT SAID, ABOVE OUR MORE STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER, A GOOD
AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM ALOFT WILL CARRY SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID DAY.
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT OUR HEATING TODAY, WHICH IS ONE REASON WHY
OUR RISK FOR STRONG CONVECTION IS NOT AS HIGH AS POINTS TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE, MOISTURE WILL
BECOME SHALLOWER AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTRODUCES MORE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CARRY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT ITSELF THIS
EVENING. EACH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF NOT JUST
RENEWED SHOWERS BUT ALSO SOME THUNDER COURTESY OF AT LEAST
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
(CAPE). HOWEVER, THE COMPLEX NOW IN MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY INDEED
DIVE ACROSS OHIO INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS INCLUDING REDUCING OUR PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. PART OF THE UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IS IF THAT COMPLEX
FALLS APART OR BECOMES TOO DISTANT TO IMPACT OUR CHANCES; AND
THUS PERHAPS UP TO 1000 OR SO J/KG OF CAPE THAT COULD BE
HARVESTED BY ANY NEW CLUSTERS IN OUR AREA. THE LATER TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF THIS EVENING, MAY ALSO RENDER MOOT WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THAT OTHER CONVECTION FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TWIN TIERS-CATSKILLS SOUTHWARD, WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SLIGHT RISK RELEGATED TO REACHING ONLY
UP TO ABOUT HAZLETON.
ACTIVITY GREATLY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
PRESSES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH EVENTUAL LOWS OF UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S. STILL, LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN SPOTTY POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY
ITSELF, CLOUDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SCATTER AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGED WITH HIGHS OF MID 70S-LOWER 80S; THE SLIGHT CHANGE OF
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
315 AM UPDATE...
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, CHANCES FOR
RAIN RETURN INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST/NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES, WHICH HELD OFF ON OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN UNTIL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND THE OPERATIONAL EURO IS
STILL HOLDING ON TO THAT LATER ONSET TIME FOR OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY, POPS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT CHANCE. SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS SEASONAL, STARTING IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S EACH MORNING BEFORE PEAKING IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
315 AM UPDATE...
COOLER, DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
THEN ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO
STAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
LATER MONDAY AND RAIN CHANCES FINALLY START TO WORK BACK IN. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS AS
FLOW SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ADVECTS IN A WARMER
AIRMASS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY PRESENT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH DEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS MID DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDER
MAY OCCUR AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR KAVP TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE.
FARTHER NORTH, INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AND COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. AT LEAST SHOWERS THOUGH ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR ALL TERMINALS. ALSO, AS THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PRESSES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING, WE ANTICIPATE FUEL
ALTERNATE TO IFR CEILINGS TO FORM. AS FOR WINDS, THEY WILL VEER
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES THROUGH EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIAL VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND, WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY 8-12 KNOTS LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON, THEN SOUTHWEST TO
WEST AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AND EVEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT; SEE
TAFS FOR SPECIFICS. ALSO, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET STRONG
ENOUGH TO POSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KITH-KSYR-KBGM-KELM IN
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS INTO MORNING, BUT
BECOMING VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MID DAY...MOIST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTING NORTHWARD MAY CAUSE CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO
REDEVELOP FOR KELM-KAVP-KBGM; PERHAPS KITH. VFR KSYR-KRME.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER COULD CAUSE INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...MDP
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