159
FXUS61 KBGM 180520
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE NE U.S TODAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
IN THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN SW RETURN FLOW, SETTING
UP WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT REACHES WESTERN NY SUNDAY
EVENING, BUT OUT CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
SW FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE
FINGER LAKES REGION TOPPING OUT NEAR 35 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LOOKING
VERY STRONG, IN THE 50 TO 70 KNOT RANGE, BUT THERE IS LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO INCREASE TO 6.5
TO 7C/KM WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN ALOFT SO CAN'T RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR, ANY STORM THAT IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND GET ANY DEPTH TO IT, WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
ABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONG SURFACE WINDS.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLY AND DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW SWITCH OUT OF THE NW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE, SO WINDS MONDAY WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THERE IS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY MONDAY, LARGELY FAVORING
CNY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NOT MANY CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES IN MID WEEK,
WITH MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS THE WEEKEND LOW WILL HAVE SCOURED OUT
MOST OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TIME
FOR RETURN FLOW TO BRING ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER WITH GOOD ODDS OF
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW 0C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO HAVE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS WE
SIT UNDER A LONG WAVE TROUGH LEADING TO SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN.
IT DOES NOT QUITE LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO GET SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR ON SUNDAY, BUT MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (GREATER THAN 70 PCT CHANCE)
WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ...A FEW MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
(40-50 PCT) DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPK
LONG TERM...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...MPK
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