636
FXUS61 KBTV 302340
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WITH A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN,
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AND THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 731 PM EDT SUNDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
STILL RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, BUT MOST AREAS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
NOW. NO BIG CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM
AIR EVER SO SLIGHTLY BEGINNING TO DISPLACE THE BELOW FREEZING
AIR THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE TO PLAIN
RAIN BEFORE ULTIMATELY ENDING. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SLOWLY
CANCEL THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT
BUT IT SEEMS PLENTY OF DAMAGE WAS SEEN WITH THE ICE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, THERE ARE ONLY A HANDFUL OF PLACES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT AT
PRECIPITATION ENDS. THUS, WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL
ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
LOOKING FORWARD, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DISORGANIZED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. GIVEN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES "SKYROCKET" TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
60S WITH A FEW PLACES NEARING 70 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HREF MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT 100-500
J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, MAINLY ACROSS
VERMONT. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH BUT COULD SEE VERY
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. FOR
MORE ON FLOODING POTENTIAL, PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 243 PM EDT SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS, TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY WITH SEASONALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. MOST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WELL UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, WE SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW TO
SEE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 243 PM EDT SUNDAY...WHILE WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO START OFF
RELATIVELY CALM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST AS A
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION APPROACHES BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 40S FOR HIGHS AND MID
TO LOW 30S FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN
AS SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
DRAW IN ELEVATED WARM AIR, HOWEVER, WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERLY COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE, A DEEP
WARM NOSE ALOFT LOOKS TO FORM WITH A COOL SURFACE. CONFIDENCE
HAS GROWN IN THE WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL AS COLD AIR LOOKS TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE GREENS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACKS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES LOOK TO BE IN
POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING, STRONGER WAA WILL ALLOW A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN, WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT HELPS TO CLEAR OUT THE REGION OF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. BEYOND FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS ANYWHERE FROM 400 TO
6000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AND VISIBILITIES FROM 1 TO 6+ MILES
IN DRIZZLE AND RAIN. OUTSIDE OF MSS, MOST SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ARE NOT CAUSING MAJOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, AND FLIGHT RULE
CATEGORIES ARE LARGELY BEING DRIVEN FROM CEILING HEIGHTS. MPV
AND MSS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING CEILINGS 500 FEET AND LOWER
AND CAN EXPECT SUCH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z
MONDAY WITH CEILINGS BEGINNING TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
LEVELS THERE 04Z-12Z AND PERHAPS EVEN LONGER. OTHER SITES ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO HAVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN STEADIER RAIN
DROP TO IFR LEVELS FROM TIME TO TIME AROUND 05Z-12Z, THEN MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BOB UP AND DOWN FROM SUSTAINED
4-8 KNOTS TO 10-14 KNOTS AND GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY ONE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS CONTINUES TO BE A
CONCERN FOR ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET SPENDS MUCH OF THIS TIME DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
DEFINITE RA, DEFINITE SN, DEFINITE FZRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...RECENT MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST WE WILL SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S TOMORROW, THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, THE LATEST
RIVER FORECASTS BRING THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER AT
AUSABLE FORKS AND THE MAD RIVER AT MORETOWN RIGHT TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. SEVERAL OTHER RIVERS WILL LIKELY APPROACH BANKFULL AS
WELL. CRESTS SHOULD GENERALLY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...CLAY/NEILES
SHORT TERM...CLAY
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...STORM
HYDROLOGY...CLAY
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