010
FXUS61 KBTV 241843
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
243 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS INCREASED TO 0.5-0.9 INCHES 04Z-15Z MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1. MODERATE RAIN REDEVELOPS TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
2. WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY.
3. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY END FROM WEST-EAST THRU 20Z AS FIRST WAVE OF 850-700MB
WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME
INCREASE IN S-SE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH. MAY STILL SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AROUND, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING A 3-6 HOUR LULL IN
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST SECTIONS WITH TEMPS UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER, INCREASING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEXT
WAVE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ALLOWS PRECIPITATION TO REDEVELOP FROM SW-NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES,
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OF MODERATE INTENSITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
06-12Z PERIOD. HAVE INCREASED QPF TO 0.5-0.8" ACROSS THE REGION THRU
15Z MONDAY , WITH A FEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING VALUES OF 0.92"
(12Z NAM) AND 0.94" (12Z GFS) AT BTV. NO HYDRO CONCERNS, BUT
COMBINED WITH PATCHY FOG, SOME SLOWER TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY AM MONDAY.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM SW-NW FLOW ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO AN END WITH A VERY SLOW CLEARING TREND,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, AND THEN MOSTLY SUNNY TOWARD EARLY
EVENING. SOME MODEST CAA EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
TROUGH...BUT THE HIGH LATE MAY SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP PUSH LATE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70-75F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NARROW REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. FOLLOWING SOME EARLY AM NOCTURNAL FOG,
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. LOOKING FOR 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO +12C TO +13C, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 80-85F RANGE, WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT'S NORTHEAST KINGDOM. TUESDAY
PROJECTS TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK. DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN
THE LOW-MID 50S SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY HEAT RELATED CONCERNS.
POPS NIL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO SHIFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS PATTERN FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AS TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S AS FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. SEVERAL TROUGH PASSAGES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT THE TIMING AND STRENGTH REMAIN QUESTIONABLE. SOME
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A MORE WRAPPED UP LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS FRIDAY BRINGING A DECENT COLD POOL AS ITS
UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD POINT TO SOME INCREASED
FORCING, POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREA PEAKS. HOWEVER, THESE DETAILS SHOULDN'T BE
RELIED UPON AT THIS TIME SCALE. KEPT THE FORECAST TOWARDS CONSENSUS
WHICH KEEPS ALL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 5000FT MSL FOR NOW WITH
BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...A MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXIST WITH
LOCATIONS IN VERMONT TRENDING MORE TOWARDS IFR IN PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH LOWER CIGS AND MORE INTERMITTENTLY LOWER VIS. IFR
CONDITIONS AND LLWS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH
BEHIND INITIAL ROUND OF RAINFALL. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FROM
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DRAG CIGS LOWER
OVERNIGHT AS LLWS DISSIPATES WITH DECREASING WINDS ALOFT IN THE
06-14Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT
IFR/MVFR CIGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT GIVEN HOW SATURATED LOW LEVELS
WILL BE AND HOW SLOW WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
AS OF 240 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25KTS FROM THE SSE STILL NOTED
AT COLCHESTER REEF AS OF 1740Z. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED AND GUSTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF
2-3FT OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANACOS
DISCUSSION...BANACOS/BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD
MARINE...BANACOS
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