285
FXUS61 KBTV 061747
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 242 AM EDT MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 242 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
2. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND FOR
MID WEEK.
3. SEASONABLE WARMTH AND SUNSHINE IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWING A WEAKER VARIETY COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 242 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS WE
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE MAIN SYSTEM SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH
OF THESE SHORTWAVES/BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE IS MOVING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND INDEED, SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
IN MOST SPOTS, BUT EVEN WHERE IT'S STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING (IE 38F HERE AT BTV AIRPORT), THE DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED WET
BULBING TO OCCUR; HENCE, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING MAINLY AS
SNOW, WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN AND/OR SLEET MIXED IN FROM TIME TO
TIME. A PERUSAL OF AREA WEBCAMS SHOWS THAT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE SHOWERS SO FAR, BUT WE DO ANTICIPATE THERE
COULD BE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AROUND HALF AN INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK,
PERHAPS LOCALLY AROUND AN INCH, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ROADS COULD BE A LITTLE SLICK WHERE SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE, SO
TRAVELERS MAY WANT TO LEAVE SOME EXTRA TIME FOR THEIR MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE, IN PARTICULAR THE
HRRR, FV3, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM3, SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER COLD AIR
ADVECTION. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS MEAGER, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST HREF INDICATES 6-HRLY
PROBABILITIES OF 20-50% OF MEASURABLE SNOW TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS (50-80% ABOVE 2000 FT). MEANWHILE,
THE NBM IS MUCH LESS GENEROUS, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 20%
AREAWIDE. THE NBM OFTEN STRUGGLES IN THIS SORT OF SET UP, SO HAVE
GONE AHEAD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE WE'VE SEEN SO FAR THIS MORNING, ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS SNOW DUE TO WET-BULBING. WITH
TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S THOUGH, ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIKELY TO MELT AS SOON AS THE
SHOWER PASSES BY.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SPREADS OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN SETS, SO ANTICIPATE A DRY
BUT CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING OVERHEAD. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SHUNTS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH,
KEEPING THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW, THOUGH DID NOTE SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE TRENDED SOUTHWARD (BUT STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE NAM
SOLUTIONS). EITHER WAY, WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO. USED A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN 20-30% NORTH AND 40-55% SOUTH. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT, AN
INCH OR TWO, AT MOST. TUESDAY WILL EASILY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER AS WE SEE CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20F.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN SLIDE EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AMPLE SUNSHINE, ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARD THE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR MORE WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. IT'LL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL, BUT WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS, HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F SHOULD MAKE
FOR PRETTY PLEASANT DAY.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH BEYOND INCREASING
CLOUDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON BREEZY SOUTH WINDS;
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED, LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY DUE TO CHANNELING. MOST AREAS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S, WITH A
FEW SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 60F.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THERE IS STRONG MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ON A STORM TRACK
NEXT WEEK THAT IS FARTHER WEST/NORTH THAN THIS PAST WEEK, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT LESS IMPACTFUL WEATHER AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. AS SUCH, AS IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION MAY
BE SCATTERED AND WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT. PER THE NBM QMD QPF PRODUCT,
THERE IS ABOUT A 25% CHANCE OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE 48
HOUR MEAN RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THIS TYPE OF EVENT WITH
RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES ON THE ORDER OF 0.1"-0.2" OF AN INCH.
AGAIN, WITH THIS LOW TRACK EVEN IF WE YET AGAIN HAVE A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST, THERE WILL NOT BE NEARLY THE
TYPE OF WIND FIELDS WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK IN THE WARM SECTOR. PER
THE USEFUL ECMWF EFI, THERE IS ONLY A WEAK SIGNAL FOR IN THE EASTERN
SIDE OF NORTHERN LAKE CHAMPLAIN, CORRESPONDING TO LIKELY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND ARE
RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN
THE DEGREE OF COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AND THE RETURN OF MILDER AIR
ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CONSENSUS
RIGHT NOW SHOWS SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS, BUT
BOTH DAYS APPEAR TO BE IN THE REALM OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.
REGARDLESS OF SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMONGST
MODEL CLUSTERS, THERE IS A TREND FROM NEAR NORMAL 925 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. A MORE AGGRESSIVE WARMING
SCENARIO DOES BRING THESE TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT THE 80TH PERCENTILE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH ALREADY IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
THE MEDIAN OF THE BLEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR, WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 7-16 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KNOTS. RADAR DEPICTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS, BUT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IS
RESULTING IN LIMITED IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY AND CEILING AT GROUND
LEVEL, EXCEPT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. MANY TAFS HAVE VCSH AND TEMPOS
FOR 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY. ABOUT 21Z-03Z, A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FOCUS ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, BUT THERE'S UNCERTAINTY AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL ON WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED. THIS
MAINLY WILL IMPACT KMSS AND KSLK. MOST GUIDANCE PLACES ACTIVITY
FARTHER SOUTH, AND SO ONLY KSLK HAS BEEN SHOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITY
IN A TEMPO FROM 21Z-01Z TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECAY MOVING INTO
VERMONT, AND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, SOME SCATTERING OF
CLOUDS AND LIFTING CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. ABOUT 09Z-12Z, A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE ADIRONDACKS, WHICH WILL BRING
CEILINGS BACK DOWN AND WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW BACK INTO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO
SERVICE IS MAY 1ST. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HASTINGS
DISCUSSION...HASTINGS/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...HAYNES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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