376  
FXUS61 KBTV 201714  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
114 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, AS A  
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY, BUT TREND BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. EACH FRONT WILL BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW  
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE OVERALL  
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MAINLY TERRAIN FOCUSED ON  
SUNDAY, BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY  
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OCCUR TOWARD MIDWEEK  
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 114 PM EDT SATURDAY...JUST A FEW UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO  
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING  
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT POSITIONED ACROSS OUR  
AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER  
OF THE DAY FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER AS RADAR  
INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WITH  
DRIER AIR IN PLACE, AND LOOKING AT THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON SKY COVER WITH MOSTLY TO  
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE MADE CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES  
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES DUE TO  
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
MINOR CHANGE TO EXPAND POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND INCREASE TO  
NEAR 100% FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. RADAR AND OBS SHOW LIGHT  
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING SLV/WESTERN  
DACKS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN AREAL  
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS AREA APPROACHES THE CPV BY 12Z. BEST  
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN OF  
NORTHERN VT NEAR JAY PEAK THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, DEVELOPING  
DRY SLOT WILL DECREASE RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS AND SUN  
EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH GOOD  
MIXING WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S,  
EVEN WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT.  
 
CHANGEABLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A  
SERIES OF S/W'S AND COLD FRONTS SWING ACROSS OUR FA. WATER VAPOR  
SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV, BUT BEST DEEP LAYER  
MOISTURE IS SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...AS PW ANALYSIS SHOWS  
VALUES NEAR 0.60. THESE QUICKLY DROP TO 0.30 AS WELL DEFINED  
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ADVECTS  
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. THINKING CURRENT BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL  
SLOWLY FALL APART ACROSS THE SLV/DACKS THIS MORNING, AS S/W  
ENERGY WEAKENS AND BEST MOISTURE IS CONTINUED TO BE SUPPRESSED  
TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE MENTIONED LIKELY POPS WEST AND TAPER TO  
SCHC/CHC POPS FURTHER EAST, WITH HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO  
0.20 ACROSS THE SLV. GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45  
KNOTS, THINKING DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CPV  
WITH MINIMAL PRECIP EXPECTED. CLOUDS COVERAGE WILL BE TRICKY  
TODAY, WITH A LITTLE OF EVERYTHING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
CPV. THINKING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER  
VALLEYS, WITH SUMMIT TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND  
LOWER 30S BY 21Z TODAY, AS 850MB CAA DEVELOPS. SECONDARY FRONT  
SURGES ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND HELPS PUSH 925MB TEMPS  
BELOW 0C BY 06Z. THIS SECONDARY FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME  
MID LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH 5H ENERGY  
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH, SO ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY TRRN  
FOCUSED IN NORTHERN DACKS AND MOUNTAINS OF VT. HAVE CONTINUED  
TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS  
DOWN TO 1500 FEET BY MORNING, WITH VERY LIMITED ACCUMULATION  
ANTICIPATED. MAYBE A DUSTING TO 0.5 ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE  
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE GREEN MTNS. LOWS RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER TEENS SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER 30S CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER  
VALLEY TONIGHT. A COLD AND BREEZY DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY  
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILING. 850MB  
TEMPS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS COLD SPELL, WITH  
VALUES NEAR -9C OR -10C, SO HAVE HIGHS MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S  
SUMMITS TO L/M 40S WARMEST VALLEYS. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT NORTHWEST  
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS  
POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE ALIGNED VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH  
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL  
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE COLDEST SPOTS.  
IT WILL BE WARMEST ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE  
SOUTH. 850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -10 C. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE SECOND HALF  
OF OCTOBER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. ON MONDAY HIGH  
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL  
DEVELOP. WITH THAT WE MAY SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS  
MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL HAVE  
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING OVERHEAD. MONDAY HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, GENERALLY MID  
30S TO MID 40S WITH SOME COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN  
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST  
AND WE'LL HAVE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE'S A WEAK  
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE, NOT A LOT  
OF FORCING SO DON'T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THIS  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING, AND FINALLY MOVE  
EAST OF OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN  
LOOKS DRIER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  
TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED  
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE  
30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE WINDS TODAY,  
FOLLOWED BY LOWER CIGS AT SLK/MSS. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT  
TO MODERATE RAIN IMPACTS OUR WESTERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING.  
EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU 15Z BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRY SLOT  
DEVELOPS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWERING CIGS THIS MORNING AT SLK  
ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS, HELPING  
TO TRANSPORT LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE. THIS SETUP WILL PRODUCE  
MVFR CIGS AT SLK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR BTWN  
13-16Z THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL  
KEEP CIGS AT VFR LEVELS AT PBG/BTV. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE  
AT RUT/MPV. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING  
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTN/EVENING AT 10 TO 20  
WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP  
TO REDEVELOP MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
CHANCE SHSN.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
SHSN.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST-WEST  
WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30  
KNOTS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RESULTING IN A NORTHWESTERLY WIND  
SHIFT, WITH WINDS MAINTAINING IN THE 15-25 KNOTS RANGE BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT. WAVES WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WHICH WILL  
CREATE CHOPPING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE  
LAKE.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TABER  
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LAROCCA/TABER  
SHORT TERM...NEILES  
LONG TERM...NEILES  
AVIATION...TABER  
MARINE...TABER  
 
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