874
FXUS61 KBTV 260619
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WARM WEATHER WILL PRECEDE AN OCCLUDED
FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND THIS,
BLUSTERY WEATHER AND LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAY ON
THANKSGIVING. MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER
VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS
NORTHWESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS CALMER, BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
WE MIGHT SEE A SMALL SLIVER OF SUN IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AS COOLING ALOFT AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR OVER THE REGION. AS IT RUNS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, IT'LL TAKE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND KEEP SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH UPPER
40S TO MID 50S, EVEN A SPOT UPPER 50 READING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
VERMONT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST LATER THIS
EVENING, AND IT MAY ALSO CONTAIN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS IT CROSSES.
BEHIND THE FRONT, FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW, COOLING ALOFT, AND
8-9 C/KM LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN THE INITIATION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EST WEDNESDAY...**WINTER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT 1AM
THURSDAY THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW**
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY AS
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASES INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. BY EVENING ON THANKSGIVING, THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL LIKELY
BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND EXTEND FARTHER EAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
BE HEAVIEST FROM ABOUT 4 PM THURSDAY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY OCCASIONALLY
REACHING 1" PER HOUR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS AND
SOME WET SNOW AT TIMES COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY AND QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL IN SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
AND PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACK WEST SLOPES TREACHEROUS. HIGH RES
GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BAND. GUIDANCE
LIKE THE HRRR, ARW, AND RDPS HAVE COME IN QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH,
WHILE NAM, FV3, EC MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY SOUTHWARDS WITH RELATIVELY
LITTLE IN THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, BUT PROBABILITIES OF
AT LEAST 8" IN SOUTHEAST ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE ABOUT 60% OR SO
FROM THE NBM. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT IN
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE, AND THEN HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN. THE
LATER PART OF THE EVENT ON FRIDAY WILL TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IMPACTED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 4-10", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS NEAR STAR LAKE (~30% CHANCE).
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION, SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OFF AND TRACK EAST INTO NORTHERN VERMONT, BUT EVEN ABSENT THE
LAKE EFFECT, 8-8.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE THE BAND.
IT'LL BE BLUSTER OVER VERMONT AS WELL, BUT NOT AS MUCH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 20-30 MPH.
COOLER WEATHER WILL ENSUE IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST WITH AN UPPER VORT IN TOW. AGAIN,
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS. SO FRIDAY WILL
OBSERVE A COMBINATION OF SCATTER SNOW SHOWERS AND OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION. THE NORTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COULD OBSERVE 1-4" OF
SNOW. HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS COULD RECEIVE ABOUT 4-8"
TO MAKE UP FOR SOME OF THE MELT YESTERDAY AND TODAY. DRY AIR BY
EVENING WILL CAUSE SNOW TO TAPER TO THE SUMMITS HEADING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A COLD AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS MOISTURE WANES ACROSS THE REGION AND
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S UNDER BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY,
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE STILL REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM,
THERE HAS BEEN SOME GREATER CONSENSUS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THE ONSET, TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO TRANSITION TO RAIN
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH TO HAVE SNOW THE ENTIRE DURATION. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE COMPARED TO SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND
COLDER HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS,
DUE TO BOTH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS, BUT CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM VFR TO LIFR. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER, WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, WITH VERY LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
SHOWERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THANKSGIVING DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. LIKELY SHSN, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHSN, AREAS BS.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT. LIKELY SHSN, AREAS BS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SN,
LIKELY RA.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT COLCHESTER REEF WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT
INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. USE EXTRA CAUTION
WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR NYZ029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR NYZ030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR NYZ087.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...KREMER
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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