666  
FXUS61 KBTV 141347  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
947 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE THE RULE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE  
DOMINATES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS, COOLER  
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 943 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED  
WITH THIS UPDATE. VALLEY FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS THE REGION,  
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE A  
BIT MORE PREVALENT OVER FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VT WHERE A WEAK  
COLD FRONT LIES. THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS  
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP  
ANY ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S  
TO MID 80S. THE FORECAST HAS THIS PRETTY MUCH COVERED, SO ONLY  
CHANGES WERE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER TO MATCH THE  
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS OUR  
AREA TODAY AS RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION OUT OF CANADA. WILL MAINLY JUST SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS  
WITH THIS WEAK FRONT, BUT ALSO THINK THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE  
FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW  
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, MAINLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS  
IT PUSHES SOUTH. ANOTHER DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AS CLOUDS  
DISSIPATE AND WE WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER  
50S. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND  
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL  
COOLING CONDITIONS. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON  
SATURDAY, AND SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER  
WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
COOLEST EAST OF THE GREENS, MAINLY RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. THE  
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES  
REACH THE LOWER 80S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHEASTWARD  
DEPARTURE SATURDAY NIGHT, GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE  
NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN  
THE 50S, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM COULD DROP INTO  
THE UPPER 40S WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL LINGER UNTIL MORNING. SUNDAY  
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, THOUGH  
LIKELY COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT UNDER THE  
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ATLANTIC AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE RAINFALL  
FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE WITH A  
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN PLAY. AT THIS TIME, CHANCES OF  
RAIN HAVE DECREASED FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
ORIGINATING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BY  
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE. BY SUNDAY EVENING, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
THAT SAID SHORT-WAVE WILL PHASE WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND  
EASTERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR  
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A RAINY DAY  
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING  
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WITH THE PASSING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, THOUGH THE  
TIMING WILL BE BETTER KNOWN AS IT DRAWS NEAR. THERE EXISTS A  
CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER, INSTABILITY  
APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST. OVERALL, TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO  
BE IN THE 0.25 - 0.5 INCH RANGE. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE  
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
70S FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER  
ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT A RETURN TO  
DRY, PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...WE DID END UP GETTING SOME FG AT MPV, AND  
BCFG AT BTV. ALL FOG SHOULD LIFT BY ABOUT 14Z. THEN WE'LL HAVE  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT  
CHANCE TSRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LAROCCA  
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NEILES  
SHORT TERM...HAMMOND  
LONG TERM...HAMMOND  
AVIATION...NEILES  
 
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