918
FXUS61 KBTV 261852
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
1. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
3. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THIS
EVENING BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AN ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL JET TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS LEADING TO
GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THE JET WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN, DRIVEN BY INCREASING DRY AIR EVIDENT ON GOES-19 WATER
VAPOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CORE OF THE JET, AND SUBSEQUENT
STRONGER GUSTS, WILL RIDE JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE US 11 CORRIDOR PEAKING
BETWEEN 40 TO 45 MPH, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN MASSENA AND FORT
COVINGTON, NY. SHOULD THE CORE OF THE JET NUDGE A FEW MILES SOUTH,
AN ISOLATED WIND GUST AROUND 46 MPH (WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW SPATIAL ASPECT OF THESE
STRONGER GUSTS, IN ADDITION TO A SHORT TIME RANGE OF ANY PEAK GUSTS
(BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM) A WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING BEYOND 9 PM, WITH GUSTS WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 MPH
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH DRY AIR
LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, HOWEVER, A LACK OF TRUE CONVERGENCE, WEAK
FORCING, AND ENTRENCHED DRY AIR WILL CAUSE ANY SHOWER INITIATION TO
STRUGGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT
MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AS THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO
ARRIVE FURTHER SOUTH. SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH FOR THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AS HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. COOLING ALOFT WITH SOME DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING MAY
LEAD TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH WITH LOW HUMIDITY NEAR THE SURFACE, SOME SHOWERS INITIALLY
MAY FALL AS VIRGA, WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS LEADING ONLY TO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD COLUMNS SATURATE ENOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UNSEASONABLY COLD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTING
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SHOWER CHANCES HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE 50S TO NEAR 60, MAKING FOR A RATHER COLD AND RAW START TO THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR THE END OF MAY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BECOME MORE SEASONABLE
WITH RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDING EASTWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 15
TO 35 KNOTS DEPENDING ON THE TERMINAL, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
EXPECTED AT KMSS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING,
BEFORE GRADUALLY LESSENING TOWARDS 06Z OR SO. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT, GENERALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD AN APPROACHING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN ENHANCING GUSTS AND WAVE CONDITIONS. WINDS ON THE
LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BE
1 TO 2 FT. GUSTS WILL WEAKEN BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...KREMER/DANZIG
AVIATION...KREMER
MARINE...DANZIG
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