274  
FXUS61 KBTV 132238  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
638 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL  
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION  
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LOCALIZED STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE IN  
FAR SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AND DRY AIR  
FILTERS IN FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT BY MONDAY, WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL  
SHIFT BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S  
TO MID 90S IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, HEAT IMPACTS ARE  
LIKELY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 635 PM EDT THURSDAY...WE HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND ONE  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT  
THESE HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE LACK OF FORCING ALOFT IS  
STUNTING NEW CONVECTION. FURTHER WEST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARE MARCHING EASTWARD AND WILL BE HERE  
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THESE  
STORMS WILL FIZZLE OUT OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT BUT WE  
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE STORMS CLOSELY AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO  
US. IN THE MEANTIME, A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH  
SUNSET BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY  
TO MID EVENING HOURS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A COLD  
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CAMS HAVE  
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE FRONT WON'T MOVE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY UNTIL CLOSE  
TO MIDNIGHT, THEN BECOME FRAGMENTED AND SCATTERED AS IT MOVES  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND PRECIP ARRIVAL TIME, ALONG WITH  
THE BEST DYNAMICS AND COLD POOL SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION, THE  
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IS LOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DESPITE A  
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH,  
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THE BIGGEST THREAT WHICH WILL CONTINUE UP TO  
25 MPH IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF  
GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHERN NEW YORK.  
 
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH VERMONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS  
FRIDAY, A SHORT WINDOW WILL EXIST IN THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON  
HOURS FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND ABOUT 40-45 KNOTS  
OF 0-6KM SHEAR MAY EXIST. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED, THE  
INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON CLEARING, AND SPC'S  
DEPICTION OF A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND A  
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OF VERMONT  
CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WANE  
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE FRONT SHIFTING  
AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND A QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS  
FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 326 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE GORGEOUS,  
FEATURING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S, AND LOW HUMIDITY. THERE WILL  
ALSO BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. CLEAR SKIES  
AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY.  
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S, BUT TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD REACH THE 30S IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS. ENJOY THE COOLER  
WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT HEAT WILL BUILD IN NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 326 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE FIRST MAJOR HEAT EVENT OF THE YEAR  
LOOKS TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK, STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE  
REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES AND INCREASING  
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY CAUSE APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL IN THE  
90S, PARTICULARLY IN THE BROAD VALLEYS. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE  
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE  
BRINGS THE CENTER OF IT TO 600 DM AT 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL  
PREVENT ANY COOLING MARINE IMPACTS FROM THE ATLANTIC AND INCREASED  
HUMIDITY WILL HELP LOWS STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE  
VALLEYS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL OUT OF THE 70S TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD,  
PREVENTING MUCH OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. WHILE THERE IS HIGH  
CONFIDENCE OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF THE  
HEAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF  
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL RIDE ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WITH  
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FROM THE AIRMASS, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO  
INITIATE SOME CONVECTION TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE  
LOWER. ALSO, WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM BEING ON THE NORTHERN  
EDGE OF THE RIDGE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM  
CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD STREAM INTO THE AREA PROVIDE  
SOME CLOUD COVER. WHILE THIS WOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES, IT WOULD  
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS. HOWEVER, DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTIES,  
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT HEAT EVENT AND THE NBM  
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE IN GIVING AN 80-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF  
HIGHS EXCEEDING 90 IN THE BROAD VALLEYS. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER END  
PROBABILITIES WHERE IT GIVES THE BURLINGTON AREA A 40-50 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF REACHING 100 ARE LIKELY UNREALISTIC. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS  
TO BE A RELATIVELY LONG- DURATION SIGNIFICANT HEAT EVENT AND IT WOULD  
BENEFICIAL TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS EARLY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
REGION THROUGH 06Z BEFORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ROLL  
THROUGH WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR FROM AROUND 09-15Z AT  
KMSS/KSLK/KEFK/KRUT. VISIBILITY WITHIN THE SHOWERS SHOULD  
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY  
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH  
SSW GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT KMSS/KSLK/KBTV THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE NIGHT, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
25-35KTS AT KMSS AROUND 06Z, AND POTENTIALLY KSLK AROUND 08Z  
ALONG A FRONTAL PASSAGE. LLWS IS LIKELY ALOFT AT ALL TERMINALS  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT  
TRAVERSES THE REGION.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 326 PM EDT THURSDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS UP TO  
25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE WATERS TONIGHT  
PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. WAVES WILL  
LIKELY BUILD TO 1 TO 3 FEET, AND CAUTION IS URGED FOR SMALL  
CRAFT VENTURING OUT OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF  
NEAR TERM...CLAY/LAHIFF  
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
AVIATION...LAHIFF  
MARINE...LAHIFF  
 
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