295
FXUS61 KBTV 230640
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY LIGHT SNOW STARTING DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST SOME
MINOR WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS. QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY, THOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY,
WHEN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 138 AM EST TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT FOR TODAY'S CLIPPER SYSTEM, WITH ADVISORIES
EXPIRING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 2-4" IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS, WITH 4-8" ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/NRN VT. EXPECTING MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW COVERED
ROADWAYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH REDUCED
RATES OF TRAVEL.
APPEARS THAT THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL WILL BE DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WITH THE BALANCE OF THIS MORNING
REMAINING CLOUDY BUT DRY. SHOULD SEE STRATIFORM SNOWFALL LIFTING
NEWD INTO SOUTHERN VT AROUND NOON AND OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 1-4PM. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
LIGHT (GENERALLY 1" OR LESS PER 3 HR), BUT SHOULD SEE BEST
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 20-02Z IN MOST SECTIONS.
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION, ESPECIALLY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
OROGRAPHIC FORCING INCREASES WITH SNOW REINVIGORATED FOR A TIME
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING, BECOMING
INCREASING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER SUMMITS AND TRENDING TOWARD
FLURRIES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY 30-34F IN MOST LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN SWRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY CUT DOWN ON SNOW-TO-
LIQUID RATIOS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT WITH
FREEZING LEVELS UNDER 1000FT AGL ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY MIX WITH
RAIN. OVERALL, SLRS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES (12:1 TO 14:1) ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. NW FLOW ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
WILL YIELD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 25-30F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 138 AM EST TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID TEENS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM SERN ONTARIO WILL REINFORCE NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY. MAY SEE A
COATING TO 2" OF SNOWFALL - HIGHEST ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL VT -
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY AGAIN IN THE 25 TO 30F RANGE
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10-15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 138 AM EST TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND CHRISTMAS
LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL AND SHOWERY SIDE WITH A SYSTEM FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW THE NIGHT OF CHRISTMAS COULD KEEP SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN GREENS, BUT MOISTURE WILL
BECOME LIMITED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM DEPARTING OFF INTO MAINE. AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL-NORTHERN GREENS. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH STRONG NW CAA WITH LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ON EITHER SIDE OF 0. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT EVERYWHERE INTO THE NEGATIVES. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF
BRIEF RIDGING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY OVERCAST. OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAVE BEEN TO PUSH IT TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. WE LOOK TO BE IN THE OVERRUNNING PORTION OF
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS. DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY UPSLOPE POTENTIAL IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH, WE WOULD
LIKELY ONLY HAVE IMPACTS FROM COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY KEEP WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 0, WITH THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY ACTUAL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK 10 DEGREES FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SUBTLE RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY, MORE-
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM, RIGHT ON ITS HEELS.
A DEEPENING 986MB SURFACE LOW, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS
POISED TO BRING IN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SOME WINTRY
MIX. THE DEEPENING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE BECOME VERY AMPLIFIED WHICH
SHOULD DRAW IN SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING WITH 925-850MB TEMPERATURES 1-
4C DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN ENSEMBLES, WITH THE GEFS/EPS DEPICTING A SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, AND THE CANADIAN A BIT DELAYED TO A
MONDAY SYSTEM. REGARDLESS, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ONCE THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A
ROBUST WARM CONVEYOR BELT. FURTHERMORE, BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS DEPICT
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH WOULD PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A POTENTIAL MARINE LAYER
OVER THE EASTERN GREENS KEEPING COOLER AIR IN PLACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS COOL SURFACE
AIR AND WARM AIR ALOFT TO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN A FEW HOURS OF A WINTRY
MIX. WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY, THERE IS A LOT TO WATCH
AS WE GET CLOSER. TRAVELERS RETURNING FROM THE HOLIDAYS AT THE END
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY 2000-3000FT AGL ARE
AT MOST SITES CURRENTLY, WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR 1000FT AT
PBG FROM A POTENTIAL LAKE CLOUD. MVFR CEILINGS OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE LOW
AND WIDESPREAD SNOW ARRIVING THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN
13-17Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO IFR LEVELS AREAWIDE TO 1-2SM WITH THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, AND
BE THE HEAVIEST WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19-23Z.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO 1000-
2000FT AGL, AND THEN WIDESPREAD 500-1000FT AGL BEYOND 00Z WEDNESDAY.
MSS/SLK MAY SEE LOWER CEILINGS TO 500-1000FT A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START LIGHT (UNDER 10
KNOTS) FROM THE SOUTH, OUTSIDE OF MSS WHERE NORTHEAST DRAINAGE FLOW
IS ANTICIPATED, AND BEGIN TO CHANGE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEYOND 00Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT
INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN, SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
THE TEMPERATURE SENSOR AT MASSENA ASOS/RICHARDS FIELD HAS BEEN
READING TOO HIGH. TECHNICIANS HAVE PLANS TO VISIT THE SITE TO
DIAGNOSE THE ISSUE ON TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23RD.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>020.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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