181  
FXUS61 KBTV 162333  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
733 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AS  
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST; AREAS OF  
FROST ARE EXPECTED WHERE WINDS SLACKEN. WINDS WILL TURN  
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY ON SUNDAY AHEAD A  
STRONGER VARIETY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD  
RAIN BY MONDAY. A STORMIER WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY IS EXPECTED  
NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 726 PM EDT THURSDAY...WINDS ARE SLOWING OVER PARTS OF LAKE  
CHAMPLAIN, BUT ARE STILL MIXING IN OTHER AREAS. WITH WINDS  
INCREASING ALOFT, HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY  
ONGOING FOR THE LAKE WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING. AS WINDS  
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND RH RISES, THE THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS HAS ENDED.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL BE THE STORY  
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR FROST GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR  
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH THE FREEZE/FROST PROGRAM  
WINDING DOWN DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY, A FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR  
TONIGHT ONLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WITH ANOTHER ONE LIKELY  
NEEDED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. LOCALIZED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHELTERED LOCATIONS, BUT ESPECIALLY TONIGHT  
THE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVALENT WILL HELP SLOW COOLING A BIT. HAVE  
NOTED LOW CHANCES FOR FROST IN THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN  
AREA, SUCH AS OVER GRAND ISLE COUNTY, BUT HAVE LET THE ADVISORY  
RIDE WITH THIS FORECAST.  
 
OTHERWISE, MODEST NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, GENERALLY  
HIGHER IN VERMONT THAN IN NEW YORK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
IN FROM THE WEST. A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OUT  
AHEAD OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM  
FRONT WILL STUNT THE COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY  
NIGHT IN WHAT OTHERWISE COULD HAVE BEEN A COLDER NIGHT  
CONSIDERING THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. GENERALLY  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ONLY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING  
INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOLLOWING HIGHS IN THE 50S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 258 PM EDT THURSDAY...SATURDAY IS CLEARLY THE PICK OF THE  
WEEK WITH REGARDS TO COMFORTABLE WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS AS  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY PER  
MUCH HIGHER 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WITH RIDGING SLIDING  
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY. HIGH  
ALTITUDE CLOUDS WILL STUNT WARMING SLIGHTLY, BUT VERY DRY LOW  
LEVEL AIR IS NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED  
IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS EVEN LOWER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED,  
BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COMPARED TO  
SUNDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF AFD BELOW FOR MORE). HAVE  
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE IMMEDIATE ST.  
LAWRENCE VALLEY, EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF NEW YORK, LATE  
IN THIS PERIOD AS BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT MORE LIKELY VIRGA,  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CLOUDS THICKEN. THICKER CLOUDS AND MILDER  
AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT THAN  
RECENT NIGHTS, ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 152 PM EDT THURSDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET  
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BRINGING GUSTY  
WINDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE,  
BUT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE  
TO CHANNELING AND IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO  
DOWNSLOPING. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY AND IT WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WHILE SOME EMBEDDED  
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, THUNDER LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY DUE TO A  
LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO  
MONDAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES THROUGH THE  
REGION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP. 48 HOUR  
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM OF SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN  
ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 25 TO 50 PERCENT. A PARTIAL BREAK IN THE  
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL  
LOW DIGS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH ENSEMBLE AVERAGED  
850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING, THERE  
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
WITH SOME MID LEVEL CIGS WRAPPING WESTWARD OFF OF DEPARTING LOW  
PRESSURE EAST OF VERMONT. THESE CLOUDS COULD WRAP BACK ACROSS  
BTV/PBG BY 6Z, BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE PARENT LOW  
CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN 35+KTS  
AT RIDGE LEVEL KEEPING LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE LIKELY AT LEAST  
THROUGH 12Z BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC WINDS ARE  
DIMINISHING HOWEVER. BREEZES WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST  
AGAIN AFTER 12Z, WITH GENERAL SPEEDS TO AROUND 10KTS OR LESS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LEADING TO CHANNELING EFFECTS ON  
LAKE CHAMPLAIN ENHANCING WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH  
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE LIKELY OCCURRED THIS MORNING. PERIODIC  
SURGES OF WIND IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS OCCUR WHEN WINDS SHIFT  
SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH, WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS COULD CONTINUE  
TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS ON THE BROAD  
LAKE SHOULD BE MORE CONSISTENTLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS, BUT TEND TO  
DIMINISH TONIGHT; RELATEDLY, WAVES HAVE BUILT UP INTO THE 3 TO  
4 FOOT RANGE AND WILL TEND TO SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET.  
 
 
   
EQUIPMENT  
 
KTYX IS OUT OF SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE DIAGNOSING THE ISSUE  
WITH NO ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-009.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF  
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF  
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF  
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
AVIATION...BOYD  
FIRE WEATHER...KUTIKOFF  
MARINE...KUTIKOFF  
EQUIPMENT...KUTIKOFF  
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