968
FXUS61 KBTV 041847
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
247 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...
1. GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW.
2. SHOWERS ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
RAINY WEDNESDAY.
3. NO MAJOR IMPACTS OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD TOMORROW, BRINGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 40 OR EVEN 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, THE
LIMITED MIXING WILL CAUSE SYNOPTIC WINDS TO DECREASE. DESPITE THE
STRONG WINDS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEING AROUND AND OVER 40
PERCENT WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS. WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLIER, THE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
ENTER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON AND VERMONT IN THE EVENING.
ENOUGH HEATING LOOKS TO OCCUR AHEAD OF IT THAT MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP. HREF MEAN VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 250 AND 750 J. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOISTURE, WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS LOOKING TO BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AT THE TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION'S ARRIVAL. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER, THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY AND
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. WHILE THERE IS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR, DUE
TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY LOOK
UNLIKELY, THOUGH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG
SHEAR MAY ACT MORE TO BLOW OFF THE TOP OF THE STORMS AND WEAKEN THEM
THAN HELP ORGANIZE THEM DUE TO THE MODEST INSTABILITY. THE SCENARIO
TO WATCH WOULD BE IF SOMETHING DEVELOPS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON, SOMETHING AKIN TO WHAT THE NAM3 HAS, THOUGH ITS
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY LOOK TOO HIGH. OVERALL, THERE IS NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THINKING FROM YESTERDAY AND IT LOOKS TO BE A LOWER END
MARGINAL CASE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT SLOWS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION, BUT BY THAT POINT, THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY STRATIFORM AND SYNOPTICALLY FORCED.
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT, MAKING IT A COMPLETE
WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS. 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN TOTAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS, THOUGH SOUTHEASTERN
VERMONT SHOULD SEE 60S AS THEY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE PRECIP AND
FRONT. COOL WEATHER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ASIDE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN CONSENSUS IS STRONG ON DRY
WEATHER, SOME DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH PARKED OVER THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY. ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO FAVOR
A MORE SCATTERED NATURE THAN PREVAILING RAIN WITH AN UPPER LOW
CONTINUING TO GYRATE ABOUT THE HUDSON BAY IN CANADA, AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE STEEPENING UNDER COOLING AIR ALOFT. SHALLOW INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO AID ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
THIS LAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WHILE THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES DO NOT APPEAR AS COLD. GEFS/EPS THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, AND MID 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
DRYING MID LEVEL AIR COLUMNS TOWARDS THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT, IN
ADDITION TO SOME CALMING WINDS MAY SUPPORT SOME TEMPERATURES
CONDUCIVE FOR FROST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER, LOOKING
UPSTREAM, CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL CANADA (WHERE OUR WEEKEND AIRMASS
WILL ORIGINATE), IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WHICH ATTM REDUCES CONFIDENCE
IN ANY FROST. THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH
THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS SUBTLE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. CEILINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 4 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET, THE LOWER OF WHICH WILL BE FOUND AT
SLK/EFK THROUGH 00Z. MIXING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SOME LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE WITH WINDS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS, LOCALLY
HIGHER AT MSS/MPV. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER, AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN AFTER SUNSET WHICH
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LLWS TO 40 KNOTS DUE TO INCREASING SPEED
WITH HEIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME
HIGH MVFR CEILINGS TO MSS/SLK, THOUGH THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW WITH GUSTS RISING TO 25 TO 35
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AT BTV/MSS/SLK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA,
LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...DANZIG/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...DANZIG
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