274  
FXUS61 KBTV 111736  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
136 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY  
FOG UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM MAY RESULT IN FROST  
FORMATION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN, RAIN  
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE HIT OR MISS AND UNLIKELY TO BRING NEEDED RAIN.  
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH  
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 123 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND TODAY'S  
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AS SKIES  
CLEAR, WE'LL SEE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL  
AVERAGES DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN  
THE 30S AND 40S. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
KINGDOM AND LOCALIZED PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME FROST MAY  
DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE  
AGAIN TONIGHT, THOUGH BEING ANOTHER DAY REMOVED FROM RAIN WILL LIMIT  
THE POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY. BEST TIME FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CLOSE  
TO DAWN TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH  
AND WINDS ALOFT CALM.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TOMORROW, RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
WINDS AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DESPITE  
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO  
THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, PRODUCING DRY DEW POINTS IN THE 40S.  
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS  
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION, BUT SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WEATHER DRY AND QUIET WITH PERHAPS SOME  
VIRGA. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO  
LOWER 50S, WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW  
SEASONAL NORMALS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT,  
MAINLY FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AS IT SITS FARTHEST EAST  
FROM THE APPROACHING CLOUD LAYER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 123 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN OPEN WAVE SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO  
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS  
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (10-30%) TO NORTHERN NEW YORK  
AND THE GREEN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS  
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ATMOSPHERIC  
FEATURES THAT WILL DETERMINE THE WEATHER SATURDAY, BUT THE CURRENT  
TREND AND FORECAST THINKING IS THAT WE'LL BE MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY  
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND VIRGA HERE AND THERE, AND TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO A SEASONABLE LOWER AND MID 70S.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO HOST A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AS THE GFS  
AND CANADIAN MODELS HOLD ONTO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LONGER WHILE THE  
ECMWF AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WANT TO SWING A SURFACE FRONTAL  
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. KEPT  
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT 10-40% THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT  
AS WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, MODEST MOISTURE, AND NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW, BUT CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS LOW. LOW  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY  
NIGHT, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE FOR MID SEPTEMBER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW  
LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY,  
BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER WITH NO MEANINGFUL  
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOK TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION,  
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RATHER  
SEASONABLE SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
LOW TO MID 70S, BUT A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARDS  
MID WEEKS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
DURING THIS PERIOD MAINLY LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID 40S AND 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS  
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FEATURE WILL BRING SOME BROKEN MID-LEVEL  
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH SKIES TRENDING  
CLEAR AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS  
WILL BE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, PRIMARILY AT KSLK AND KMPV  
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TERMINALS, LIKE KEFK,  
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. AFTER  
THE FOG DISSIPATES, AROUND 12Z FRIDAY OR SO, VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS  
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BE NORTHERLY, GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND 12 KNOTS  
WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL TREND CALM OVERNIGHT,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRUT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 7 KNOTS  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ004.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...STORM  
NEAR TERM...STORM  
SHORT TERM...STORM  
LONG TERM...KREMER  
AVIATION...KREMER  
 
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