332  
FXUS61 KBTV 051047  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
647 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING  
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY  
ROUND OF MORE MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY, WITH A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL  
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 647 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST IS GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME  
WITH THE ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO DELAY TIMING OF CHANCE POPS  
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON  
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 322 AM...  
OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
WITH THE HIGHLIGHT BEING A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER  
THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WHICH WILL DIVE INTO CENTRAL NY  
THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.  
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT ON THE  
EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL, CONSENSUS IS FOR 2  
BATCHES OF RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THE FIRST OF  
WHICH BEING VERY DISJOINTED AND VERY LIGHT ALONG THE LEADING  
EDGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED AREA OF PWATS >  
1.5". UPSTREAM OBS SHOW PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY  
FALLING OUT OF A MID- LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH NO SURFACE  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 0.1" OR  
LESS. THE SECOND AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL BATCH COMES LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO WESTERN NY AND ON THE  
NOSE OF A 40-50KT 850MB JET WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. LITTLE CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF  
THE REGION, BUT A LITTLE MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG MAY PROVIDE A  
FEW RUMBLES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  
 
AFTER MIDNIGHT, PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE  
SURFACE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND MUCH DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS  
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL  
VARY WIDELY, ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOP, BUT  
BASIN AVERAGES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 0.5" WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS  
POSSIBLE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY DON'T PASS THROUGH UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WEDNESDAY SO THERE  
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IN THE  
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SEVERELY BLOCKED  
FLOW, BUT OVERALL RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH  
CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING BY SUNSET.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 322 AM EDT TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AS  
1016MB HIGH PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS INTO OUR FA. THIS WL  
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HAVE NOTED GUIDANCE  
TRENDING COOLER FOR LOWS ON WEDS NIGHT/THURS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH  
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT  
LOWS IN THE L/M 40S NEK/SLK TO MID 50S URBAN ISLANDS OF THE CPV. A  
FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER 30S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE IN COLDEST MTN  
VALLEYS ON THURS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY AND  
MILD CONDITIONS ON THURS WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS IN  
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CROSSING OUR CWA FROM TIME TO TIME. PROGGED  
925MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C, SUPPORT HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 4TH OF  
JULY, WITH VALUES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WARMEST VALLEY  
CITIES. DID LOWER AFTN DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S,  
WHICH IS TOWARD THE 10% NBM VALUES AND SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS  
INDICATING MIXING OF DRIER AIR AROUND 850MB TOWARD THE SFC.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 322 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL PREVAIL ACRS THE NE  
CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ONLY WINDOW FOR UNSETTLED WX ON  
FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND  
NORTHERN STREAM S/W'S AND HOW ROBUST SFC LOW PRES BECOMES. LATEST  
00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PHASING ENERGY AND SFC LOW PRES  
DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED QPF ACRS OUR CWA, WHILE NAM/GFS SHOWS A  
SPLIT SYSTEM WL MINIMAL IMPACTS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH  
SCHC/LOW CHANCE POPS AS MODELING AND TRACKING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE  
INDUCED S/W ENERGY AND LOW PRES IS CHALLENGING AT DAY 4. HOWEVER  
EXPECTING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR  
FA, GIVEN WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW AT 700 TO 500MB, HELPING TO DEFLECT  
THE HEAT/HUMIDITY. BY THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT  
SHOWING ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA FROM  
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHTS  
AND MILD DAYS. HAVE LOWERED MINS ON SAT AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BASED ON  
POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRES AND POTENTIAL FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT  
WINDS. IN ADDITION, GFS/ECMWF SHOW PROGGED 850MB TEMPS ANOMALIES OF  
4 TO 5C BELOW CLIMO NORMALS ON SAT. LOWS UPPER 30S TO L/M 50S LOOKS  
REASONABLE WITH COOLEST VALUES IN THE NEK/SLK REGION AND WARMEST IN  
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF THE CPV. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO  
NEAR 80F FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SOMETIME EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST, AS TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE  
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A MIX OF MVFR/VFR IS  
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL  
SPREAD SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING,  
WITH AREAL COVERAGE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING  
WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY WILL BE LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD  
REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL LOWERING TO  
MVFR IN THE MORE MODERATE RAIN, AND AFTER THE RAIN SUBSIDES IN  
THE EVENING FURTHER LOWERING TO IFR IS LIKELY AT KSLK. LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS  
BETWEEN 12-14Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT  
KBTV AND KRUT. BRIEF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKE AT KMPV  
AND KRUT FROM 02-06Z AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 30-40KTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF  
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF  
SHORT TERM...TABER  
LONG TERM...TABER  
AVIATION...LAHIFF  
 
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