939  
FXUS61 KBTV 082337  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
637 PM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AFTER A DREARY FEW DAYS, WE'LL FINALLY SEE THE SUN RETURN ON  
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
SEASONABLY CHILLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. WE THEN  
RETURN TO A DRIER PATTERN MIDWEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 613 PM EST THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT  
SHAPE. A VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, DRIVEN BY EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH  
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. AS THE CENTER OF THE CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE  
GRADUALLY MEANDERS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, WE'LL SEE  
A VERY DRY AIR MASS FILTERING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE  
NORTH. THIS IS ALREADY STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH EROSION  
OF STRATUS DECK NOTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN VERMONT AT 23Z PER IR  
IMAGERY.TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT  
ON TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAIN  
LOCKED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST WE CONTINUE TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT  
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR, BUT DISSIPATION OF LOW CLOUDS  
LIKE THESE IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO TIME. ANY AREAS THAT DO  
TREND CLEAR OVERNIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY,  
THOUGH CONTINUED NORTH FLOW WILL PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM DECOUPLING  
AND TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING. HAVE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN  
THE TEENS TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS.  
 
ANOTHER SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY IS ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH SKIES  
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL  
ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE  
NORTH, EXCEPT LOCALLY BREEZY OVER AND SOUTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN UP TO  
20 MPH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE CHILLY...TEENS FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS. NOTICING THE MOS GUIDANCE IS HITTING THE RADIATIONAL  
COOLING ESPECIALLY HARD FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS  
THE NATIONAL BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE CONTINUED  
10+ KNOT GRADIENT FLOW SUSTAINED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AS WE REMAIN  
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 317 PM EST THURSDAY...COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH OVER SOUTHERN  
QUEBEC AND A MEANDERING/SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OFF  
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR DUE TO THE GREENLAND BLOCK (-NAO) WILL  
HELP REINFORCE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE  
SHOWS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -8 TO -10C RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN  
VT AND NY. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW DEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR  
GETS. LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, THE INVERSION LEVEL IS AROUND  
2000 TO 2500 FT. SO LIKE ON FRIDAY, DID NOT GO QUITE AS COLD FOR THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THESE AREAS  
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. OVERALL, SIMILAR TEMPERATURES  
AS ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD CAP DAYTIME HIGHS  
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.  
 
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY, THERE IS QUITE A BIG DIFFERENCE  
BETWEEN RAW MODEL GUIDANCE AND MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH TAKES INTO  
ACCOUNT LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH COLDER BECAUSE  
IT ASSUMES THERE IS A SNOWPACK IN PLACE, WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE CASE  
BUT NOT THIS WINTER. SO DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAW  
AND MOS GUIDANCE AND ENDED UP WITH LOWS RATHER CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY,  
FOR EXAMPLE, LOW TEENS FOR SARANAC LAKE AND NEAR 20 FOR BURLINGTON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 317 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
* SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY  
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH  
AND EAST.  
* SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...  
 
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE  
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT CROSSES NY  
STATE, THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WOULD TEND TO  
SUPPRESS THE MOST MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  
HOWEVER, THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES A 6 TO 12 HOUR  
WINDOW WHERE PWATS GO FROM 0.1 INCH TO ALMOST 0.5 INCHES AS THE  
LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN FROM A SOUTHEAST FLOW. DEW POINTS RISE FROM THE  
SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE 20S. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR  
NORTHEAST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD GETS AND HOW QUICKLY WE CAN  
OVERCOME THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MASS. FOR REFERENCE, 0.1 INCH  
PWATS IS CLOSE TO MINIMUM OF SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR ALBANY,  
NY. THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY IF NOT  
ALL SNOW. THE ONE LIMITATION IS THAT THE DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY  
COMPONENT COULD LEAD TO SOME WARMING AND/OR DRYING OF THE LOW  
LEVELS, LIMITING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BUT ALL THINGS CONSIDERED,  
WITH SLRS IN THE 15 TO 1 RANGE, AND QPF AMOUNTS 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES  
RANGE, THINKING THAT CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SEE COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW  
AND AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM LATE  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...  
 
EXPECT SEASONABLY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY MORNING  
ONWARDS THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL KEEPING  
925MB TEMPS -7 TO -9C ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT ALONG WITH  
A NORTHERLY WIND, MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD STAY BELOW FREEZING EVEN  
FOR THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKE BURLINGTON. AND  
DEPENDING ON WHETHER WE CAN ESTABLISH A SNOWPACK (EVEN A MODEST ONE  
TO COAT THE LANDSCAPE), WE MIGHT HAVE TO GO LOWER WITH THE  
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE USUAL RADIATORS LIKE  
SARANAC LAKE.  
 
WHILE WE STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE  
FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF NEWFOUNDLAND RETROGRADES INTO NORTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. CERTAINLY A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO GIVEN THE UPPER LATITUDE  
BLOCKING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVE NAO BUT WE ARE TOO FAR OUT AT  
THIS TIME TO FORECAST ANYTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW  
SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED  
BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS  
WITH MVFR CIGS AT MPV/SLK AND MSS. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR  
ALOFT AND NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN LOWER BL DEWPOINTS AND WL  
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE THE MVFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS  
AT MSS/MPV, BUT EXPECT MVFR AT SLK TO PREVAIL THRU 06Z.  
EVENTUALLY VFR DEVELOPS AT ALL SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUES  
THRU THE DAY WITH NORTH WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
THE KCXX RADAR WILL BE DOWN THROUGH APPROXIMATELY DECEMBER 12  
FOR A SCHEDULED PEDESTAL REPLACEMENT ON SITE. THIS A CRITICAL  
REPAIR TO ENSURE THE OPERATIONAL LONGEVITY OF THE EQUIPMENT.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DUELL  
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DUELL  
SHORT TERM...CHAI  
LONG TERM...CHAI  
AVIATION...TABER  
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV  
 
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