377
FXUS61 KBTV 131830
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 229 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS AND THE SPINE OF THE GREENS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TOTALS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT RANGE AROUND 0.50-1.50 INCHES, WITH SOME LOCALIZED AROUND
2.00 INCHES. THIS WILL STILL BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL FOR THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 229 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. WET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
BENEFICIAL RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
2. WEATHER WILL BE DRYING OUT INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
3. NOTABLE WARM UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 229 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS WELL, PRODUCING A WAVE OF RAINFALL THAT HAS SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT. SOME DRYING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN NON-
ZERO INSTABILITY VALUES AHEAD OF ANOTHER BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS
BRINGING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PROJECTING SURFACE CAPE VALUES UP TO 300-
500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK, MAINLY
WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS, SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE BUT
REMAIN SOUTHERLY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT WILL BE UP TO 0.45", HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW YORK AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES ON THURSDAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS.
IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED INTO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTERLY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LATE
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTWARD WHILE THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY MISSES OUT ON MUCH OF THE STEADIER RAIN (PROB OF PRECIP 20-
60% IN THIS AREA). ADIRONDACKS AND EASTWARD, RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL.
WE'RE EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.75" OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY, HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS, LOCALLY ONE
INCH POSSIBLE. WINDS ON THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTH FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND OUT
OF THE EAST FOR THE GREENS AND EAST OF THE GREENS. BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASED RAIN AND CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT, MID/UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN EAST OF NEW JERSEY AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW IN THE OCEAN SPEEDS
OUT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL SEND MORE MOISTURE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS AROUND 60-100%,
HIGHEST ON EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AROUND 0.50-1.50 INCHES, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED AROUND 2.00 INCHES ON THE FAVORED EASTERN SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SPINE OF THE GREENS. WITH THE MORE
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. WHERE WINDS
ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN VERMONT, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR MIST DEVELOP AS
WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY OF GRADUAL DRYING AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD, THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS, APPROACHING
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, MULTI-LAYER RIDGING
WILL MAKE FOR A DRIER NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN SEASONABLE IN THE 40S.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR INSTABILITY BENEATH THIS RIDGE AXIS,
BUT A LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS, AND
NORTHERN VERMONT, UP TO 35% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. AFTER A
WARM DAY, SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WILL EASILY CAUSE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE 80S FOR MOST PLACES, WITH A RUN AT 90 POSSIBLE FOR THE
VALLEYS. NBM PROBABILITIES RANGE BETWEEN 50-75 PERCENT FOR THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND BETWEEN 25-50 PERCENT FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST, SO ANY WOBBLES IN STORM TRACK SHOULD STILL
KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR, THOUGH THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE
HEAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MID-
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...THERE ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WITH CEILINGS RANGING BETWEEN 600 AND 5,000 FEET. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR BY EVENING.
FURTHER GRADUAL DECLINES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THERE IS A CHANCE
(~60%) THAT MPV SEES IFR BY DAYBREAK. PBG HAS A LOWER CHANCE (~30%)
OF SEEING IFR. THE EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND RISE TO MVFR. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH MOST TERMINALS HANGING ON TO MVFR CEILINGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE
VISIBILITY REMAINS VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT, GENERALLY BLOWING BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10
KTS. LLWS WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AT MSS AND FOR A
FEW HOURS TONIGHT AT MPV.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STORM
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/STORM
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
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