591  
FXUS61 KBTV 172354  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
754 PM EDT SAT APR 17 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED TO START THE NEW WEEK. CHANCES FOR  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY BEFORE A  
MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM REACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY,  
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN. A STRONG COLD  
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH  
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 754 PM EDT SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH  
THIS UPDATE AS CALM, MOIST, AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS  
REMAIN IN PLACE. JUST ENOUGH DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS SUPPORTED  
SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW  
YORK EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BELOW THAT  
LAYER THINGS WILL TREND ON THE CLOUDY SIDE EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE  
CURRENTLY CLEAR. STILL EXPECT VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW  
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE  
ONTARIO THAT WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS DOTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF  
PHOTOGENIC DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME AREAS EAST OF THE  
GREENS ARE STILL LANGUISHING IN THE 30S, BUT MUCH OF THE REGION  
IS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE  
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT RIGHT NOW, ONLY  
OBSERVING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. NARROW SHORTWAVE  
RIDGE PASSES EAST THIS EVENING WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING IN  
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS  
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.  
 
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATING  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT,  
WE ACHIEVE SOME MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY UP TO 100 J/KG  
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS  
NEW YORK, FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING IN THE ST.  
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TOWARDS VERMONT DURING THE  
EVENING HOURS, BUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BE SHUTTING  
DOWN AS ACTIVITY CROSSES LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE  
CONFINED TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY TO  
PUSH EAST OF THE GREENS. WITH A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS, IT  
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO  
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...ON MONDAY THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT.  
HOWEVER FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG APRIL  
INSOLATION MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR BUILDING CUMULUS  
AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH  
THE AREA BUT THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS LOOK PRETTY SMALL AT THIS POINT  
WITH A WEAK FORCING, NOT MUCH MOISTURE OR CONVERGENCE. LOW  
TEMPERATURES MID 30S TO MID 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...AFTER ANY SHOWERS TAPER OFF TUESDAY  
MORNING, THE MAIN THING IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT  
DEEPENING OF A FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY  
THAT CLOSES OFF AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM  
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WHICH  
DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  
THE EXACT TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE WITH WHERE THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND  
COLD FRONT FAIRLY QUIET DAY TUESDAY T WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE  
THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS END UP. FOR NOW GOING WITH COOLER  
NORTH AND WEST AND WARMER SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THERE IS STILL  
TIME TO SORT ALL THAT OUT. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PRETTY GOOD SHOT  
OF PRECIP TOO WITH GENERALLY HALF INCH TO AN INCH AN EARLY  
GUESS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IS NOT ZERO EITHER BUT RIGHT NOW  
LOOKS CONFINED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. IT DOES COOL OFF  
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE LOW, SO A CHANGE TO HIGHER ELEVATION  
SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS LIKELY WITH GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW. STILL A CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS REMAINS ON FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE  
STEADILY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. MODELS IN  
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 3 TO 5 THOUSAND  
FOOT RANGE WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE  
TRENDING LOWER, YIELDING A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/TERRAIN  
DRIVEN WITH NO LARGE-SCALE FORCING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP  
IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING  
WITH BEST CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER AT SLK, ALTHOUGH NO  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE OR ANYWHERE ACROSS  
THE AIRSPACE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY  
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
CHANCE SHSN.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES  
NEAR TERM...HAYNES/KUTIKOFF  
SHORT TERM...SISSON  
LONG TERM...SISSON  
AVIATION...HAYNES/KUTIKOFF  
 
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