174
FXUS61 KBTV 180705
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
305 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 303 AM EDT SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 303 AM EDT SUNDAY...
1. A CHILLY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
2. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL FOR LATE
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 303 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035 MB WILL SLIDE EAST THIS
MORNING, KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND LEADING TO A COLD START TO
THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY, DRAWING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND HELPING TO
REBOUND OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT BREEZES AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE WIDER
VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS WELL. TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK,
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE CHILLY MID 20S TO LOWER 40S,
MAINLY TOO DRY TO SEE MUCH VALLEY FOG. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR IN ON MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH
THEIR PEAK FOR THE WEEK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING US SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AS LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WIND DOMINATES THE
PERIOD. THROUGH MIDWEEK, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF NO
PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE IS A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THURS INTO FRIDAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF REDEVELOPING HIGH
PRES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS
BTWN -5C AND -7C ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY,
WHILE RIDGE AXIS IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS RESULTS IN DEEP CLOSED OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND, WHICH COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY/UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES/MTN FLURRIES LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
LATEST AI RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LATE WEEK TROF AND ASSOCIATED CAA, SUPPORTING WHAT IS ADVERTISED
BY THE WPC FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WITH LOWS UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40F DAILY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MVFR CIGS AT SLK THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME LAKE CLOUDS. THIS HAS
YET TO DEVELOP AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING IS <30%, SO HAVE NOT
MENTION IN TAF. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY INTO CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TAF SITES TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES BY EVENING WITH SOME AREAS OF WIND SHEAR
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STORM
DISCUSSION...TABER/STORM
AVIATION...TABER
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