601
FXUS61 KBTV 120655
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 151 AM EST THURSDAY...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10 AM.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 151 AM EST THURSDAY...
1. SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
2. A CLIPPER WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
3. MODEST WARMING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND/OR SNOW POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
AS OF 151 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR SNOW SHOWERS
TO LINGER ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING.
FROUDE NUMBERS REMAIN SHOW STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW WHICH HAS
HELPED MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING
UNBLOCKED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO AN ABRUPT END TO
THE SNOW SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, IT'S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE ANOTHER
0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL BUT MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A
DUSTING. AS THESE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF, WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 MPH LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION (IN THIS CASE A CLIPPER) WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND FIZZLE OUT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS
WILL HELP DRIVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN AND ADIRONDACK
MOUNTAINS. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW RATHER LACKLUSTER LIFT GIVEN THE
LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS AS THE FEATURE FALLS APART
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND WILL RELY ON OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO HELP
SQUEEZE OUT WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. THAT BEING
SAID, IT SEEMS LIKE A FAIR CHANCE THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL AT
LEAST SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT ANY NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY MAINLY ABOVE 1000-1500 FT. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AS WE
BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BREAKS DOWN WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW VS
MERIDIONAL FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER, BEFORE THIS HAPPENS, ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TOO CRAZY, WITH
EARLY ESTIMATES OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THEREAFTER,
WE WILL FINALLY SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
SPREAD EASTWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO ADVECT IN SOME ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY SEE A
PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO POSSIBLY MID 40S IN SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
MIDWEEK AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW
TO THE REGION. THERE ARE A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS AT THIS POINT GIVEN COMPLICATED
THERMAL PROFILES BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING AS WE
HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BRING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MANY TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A BAND
OF HEAVIER SNOW HAS BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS TO KMPV, KRUT, AND
KSLK WITH THESE IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 9-10Z AS
SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. CEILINGS, FOR THE MOST PART, REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE
WITH CEILINGS HOVERING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT. WE SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY STARTING AT
12Z BUT SOME SITES MAY STICK WITH A 2500-2800 DECK FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT'LL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SN.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE.
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
CLIMATE
AS OF 206 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
IN BURLINGTON, THE LAST DAY WITH A TEMPERATURE BREAKING 32
DEGREES WAS JANUARY 22ND. THE NEXT TIME WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 32 IN BURLINGTON IS THIS SATURDAY,
FEBRUARY 14TH. IF THAT FORECAST HOLDS, THAT WOULD BE 22 DAYS IN
A ROW BELOW FREEZING. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURE STREAKS THIS
LONG ARE FAIRLY UNUSUAL IN THE BURLINGTON AREA, LAST HAPPENING
JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2015.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAY
AVIATION...CLAY
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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