140  
FXUS61 KBTV 230746  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
346 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM  
OPHELIA SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM  
WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE ONLY  
EXPECTED IMPACTS BEING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH  
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...OPHELIA WILL PROVIDE A GRADIENT OF CLOUDS  
STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH, THIN  
CLOUDS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS IN  
SOUTHERN VERMONT. MOST OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE  
BONE-DRY, HOWEVER, AS OPHELIA GETS HUNG UP IN THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
THERE'S ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPRINKLING ACROSS SOUTHERN  
RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW WITH THE  
EXCESS TROPICAL MOISTURE, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET  
AND DRY. BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-60S IN  
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE WIDER  
VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY NORTH. LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILDER TONIGHT WITH THE  
INSULATING CLOUD COVER, AND FOG CHANCES WILL BE LOWER OVERALL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...WE WILL BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN A COUPLE  
WEATHER FEATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUIET  
WEATHER FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH  
AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH, WITH QUIET  
WEATHER IN BETWEEN. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY WITH  
SHORTWAVE FINALLY CROSSING OUR AREA. ONLY EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF VERY  
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING  
TROPICAL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL  
NORMALS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 346 AM EDT SATURDAY...FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WE  
WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES  
OVER THE REGION OUT OF CANADA. DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE THE OVERNIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL  
SIDE WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...OPHELIA CONTINUES TO SEND A THIN VEIL OF  
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT BUT NOT  
PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT, THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW SPOTS  
REPORTING FOG/MIST. MPV AND SLK ARE ONCE AGAIN MOST LIKELY TO  
HAVE PREVAILING IFR TONIGHT AROUND 08-13Z SATURDAY, BUT COULD  
BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF IFR/VFR BEFORE THAT. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS  
FOR EFK AND MSS OF IFR, WHICH ARE ANTICIPATED TO BOUNCE FOR  
MOST OF THE NIGHT. PBG COULD HAVE MORE DIPS INTO MVFR TERRITORY,  
BUT IT SHOULD, FOR THE MOST PART, AVOID IFR CONDITIONS. BTV AND  
RUT SHOULD STAY VFR FOR THE NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, WITH HOW  
THIN THE LAYER OF CLOUDS IS, FOG IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE  
QUESTION AT ANY TAF SITE AS EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS  
STILL POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY  
TRICKY AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEPARTED AND IT'S NO LONGER AN  
"IDEAL" SITUATION FOR FOG. THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY, LIGHT  
SOUTH/EASTERLY WINDS 4-8 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...STORM  
NEAR TERM...STORM  
SHORT TERM...NEILES  
LONG TERM...NEILES  
AVIATION...STORM  
 
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