496
FXUS61 KBTV 261111
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
611 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 128 AM EST THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 128 AM EST THURSDAY...
1. SNOW SHOWERS END EARLY TODAY, WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
2. A BRIEF WINDY WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN
COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
3. SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN TURNING
WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 128 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: EARLY THIS MORNING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING
TO OUR EAST, WITH PRESSURE RISES GRADUALLY SLOWING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY TODAY. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WIND DOWN. AS A RESULT, IT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM
NORTHWESTERN VERMONT AND POINTS WEST. A NORTH TO SOUTH THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY STAY TO
OUR WEST, BUT VERY LIGHT, SPOTTY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
TROUGH TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
SATURATION OF THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS UNCERTAIN, LIMITING
CHANCES OF ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW AT THIS TIME. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
FLURRIES FARTHER EAST INTO NORTHERN VERMONT. COMPARED TO
THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY WINDS WITH A TYPICAL CHANNELED VALLEY FLOW SETUP
IS ON TAP FOR EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM WIND
GUST POTENTIAL PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NBM QMD DATA SHOWS 35 TO 42
MPH IN TYPICAL SPOTS THAT DO WELL WITH THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS, SUCH
AS NEAR MALONE AND IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THE WINDS WILL
PEAK PRIOR TO CLOUDS THICKENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A BAND OF
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
TIED TO A MOISTURE STARVED, BUT THERMALLY STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT COMPARED TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, BASED ON DEPICTION OF
THE FRONT IN VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAN OVER AREAS FARTHER EAST, AS THE
SYSTEM'S SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. HOWEVER, FUTURE FORECASTS MAY ALSO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO VERMONT. GENERALLY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MORE FAVORED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL AIR, A NARROW
ZONE OF DEEP MOISTURE, AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS ELEVATIONALLY DEPENDENT AND MAINLY RAIN,
WITH PERHAPS WET BULBING EFFECTS CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW AS CLOUDS
LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON LOCATION; AREAS FARTHER WEST ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE
SHARPLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY, BUT HOURLY
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THAT BEING SAID,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO BE MILD ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE, IN
THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION, A LINGERING THERMAL GRADIENT AND A BROAD TROUGH TO OUR WEST
WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE MOST
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS CHANCES FOR SNOW, THE SNOWIEST
SCENARIO FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD BE IF RIDGING
TO OUR NORTHEAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE CONSENSUS IDEA.
REGARDLESS, THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A LIGHT SNOWFALL. EARLY
ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 0.5-3" INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME, WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAIN REGIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TO START THE
WORK WEEK, BRINGING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO PERHAPS LOW 20S, WHILE OVERNIGHTS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THIS COLD
SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
BRINGS INCREASING SOUTH FLOW TO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. THE HIGH
WILL SERVE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF OUR AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS TO WHERE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK, WHICH WOULD IN TURN HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT ON OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY SNOW, WHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS AREN'T
EVEN SURE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING THERE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDING FIRM. NEEDLESS TO SAY, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LOCAL MVFR IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. KSLK/KEFK HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 15Z,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES, IF ANYTHING, AT
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS 3500-5000 FT WILL ERODE
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, GIVING WAY TO FEW BY 00Z
FRI. W/NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE KMPV ASOS HAS SUFFERED A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE. THE ISSUE
HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE. THIS COMMUNICATIONS LINE IS NOT SERVICED BY
THE NWS. TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE, BUT
AMENDMENTS TO THOSE FORECASTS WILL BE SUSPENDED.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...HASTINGS/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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