233
FXUS61 KBTV 241113
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 234 AM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 234 AM EDT FRIDAY...
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
2. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY ARRIVE
TUESDAY HERALDING IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 234 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO A CONSISTENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION, SO DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS, BUT LIGHTER
WINDS WILL LESSEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AFTER NORTHERLY GUSTS IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE TODAY, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AND
UNDER 10 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND. CHANNELING WILL ENHANCE WINDS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TODAY AND IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW. A
VERY DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EFFICIENT MIXING COULD CAUSE DEW POINTS TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN FORECAST ON ANY GIVEN DAY, THOUGH LOWER GUIDANCE WAS
ALREADY BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ASIDE,
THIS STRETCH WILL FEATURE GREAT SPRING WEATHER TO GET OUTSIDE. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND AND BELOW FREEZING MOST NIGHTS,
THEY WILL RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE DAYS WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT
BEGINNING TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST,PROJECTING THE APPROACH OF A
SYSTEM THAT IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP UNDER LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IN
COLORADO ON SUNDAY. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS TIMING OF THE LOW. NBM
IS SOMEWHAT DISCORDANT WITH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BRINGING THE
SYSTEM IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORS A DELAY MORE
TOWARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CURRENT PROJECTIONS POINT TO SOME CONCERNS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE COINCIDENT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
WHEREAS A SLIGHT DELAY WILL TAMP CONCERNS DOWN A LITTLE. WPC HAS
KEPT CLOSER TO THE NBM OUTPUT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 MPH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION, IT'S SEEMINGLY MORE LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS PUSHING 70-75 DEGREES FOR BROADER VALLEYS.
ONCE THE SYSTEM DOES MOVE IN, IT'S PLAUSIBLE THAT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A WETTING RAIN, BUT TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS SUPPORTING
SYNOPTIC ENERGY MAY BE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THOUGH.
PAST THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, MODELS
FAVOR THE NORTHEAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. THE LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY SUN
ANGLE WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WHILE 850
TEMPERATURE PROGS ARE AT AND BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS WILL BE
PROBABLE UNDER THIS REGIME AND MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THESE DETAILS WILL BE SUSSED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT TO AVIATION WILL BE SOME LOWER END
NORTHERLY GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. AVERAGE MAX GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR 20KTS, BUT COULD SEE SOME MAX GUSTS AROUND 25KTS AT BTV
AND PBG IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page