456
FXUS61 KBTV 250612
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
212 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 212 AM EDT SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 212 AM EDT SUNDAY...
1. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
2. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 212 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: TODAY WILL BE A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE OF DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AFTER A COOL
START TO THE MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AT 5-12
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PLETHORA OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS IT'S UNLIKELY WE
SEE THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE TIME TO SATURATE BEFORE DRY AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING UP TO 0.05" OF RAIN ACROSS THE SUMMITS BUT EVEN
THAT SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
COINCIDE WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. TUESDAY MORNING WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE 20S WHILE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
40S. IT'LL BE OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR THIS FALL AS THE
TRANSITION TO WINTER ISN'T TOO FAR AWAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT, WE MAY
BE LOOKING AT SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO
SLOWLY MODERATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT BUT AGAIN IT
LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. FOR THOSE WITH LITTLE
ONES WHO PLAN TO GO TRICK-OR-TREATING, THE FORECAST FOR HALLOWEEN
LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KRUT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
THEIR TYPICAL 110-140 DEGREE DRAINAGE WIND OF 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
ROUTINE OBSERVATIONS FROM KSLK ASOS ARE UNAVAILABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. WHILE THE SITE IS OPERATING, IT IS NOT ABLE TO
DISSEMINATE OBSERVATIONS NORMALLY AT THIS TIME. TECHNICIANS ARE
AWARE OF THE ISSUE, BUT TIME OF RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...CLAY
AVIATION...CLAY
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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