234
FXUS61 KBTV 051133
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 727 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...
1. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. AS THESE
WINDS DIMINISH, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS SWEEPING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN COOL BREEZES LATER IN THE DAY.
2. WINTER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A
LATE SEASON LIGHT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD. GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
IS FAVORED FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
3. TRENDING WARMER WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS HAVE DEFINITELY
MATERIALIZED OVERNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS,
INCLUDING MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN THE 55 TO 59 MPH RANGE IN
CHAZY, MALONE AND LAKE PLACID, ASSOCIATED WITH A POWERFUL LOW
LEVEL JET. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING IN THESE AREAS. POCKETS OF POWER
OUTAGES IN NORTHERN VERMONT HAVE OCCURRED AS WELL WHERE AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ARE PRESENT, MAINLY NEAR THE
GREENS BUT ALSO EVEN IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY. THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE PRETTY COMPLEX WITH MULTIPLE
INVERSIONS, SO THERE IS PROBABLY A MIX OF DOWNSLOPING AND GAP
WINDS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THESE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HAD TREE
LIMBS DOWNED. THE EVENT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AFTER SUNRISE AS
THE GRADIENT FLOW RELAXES A BIT.
A LARGE BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT ARE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND REMAIN ON TRACK TO EXIT VERMONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE SHOWERS
WILL SERVE TO DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE ADIRONDACKS SUCH
THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE WESTERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER VALLEY/LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.
OVERALL, RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK IMPACTFUL; ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHERE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
0.2", EVENT AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD BE 0.3" TO 0.5", EXCEPT
0.5-0.7" IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WILL USHER IN A WINTERLIKE AIR MASS. THE FIRST OF TWO MINOR SNOW
EVENTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOWFALL
WILL DEVELOP ONCE TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH OVERNIGHT,
WITH FROUDE NUMBERS AND NEAR 40 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS AT 850
MILLIBARS SUGGESTING UNBLOCKED FLOW. AS SUCH, MOST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE TEND TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH IN THE ADIRONDACKS MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW IS FAVORED OF GENERALLY UP TO 1". SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND PASSING NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF US. THE FOOTPRINT OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A BURST OF SNOW AND ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS, APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY COMPACT. THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
LITTLE BROAD WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OWING TO LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES, BUT SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS COULD SEE UP TO A FEW
INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH IN SNOW
RATIOS, ESPECIALLY FOR APRIL, AS OPPOSED TO A WET SNOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER FOR TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH TEMPERATURES IN MOST
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT STAYING IN THE 20S, OR
CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SOMETIME FRIDAY, BUT THERE'S STILL A LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS IN HOW FAR THIS FRONT GOES AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IT MAY
OR MAY NOT HAVE WITH IT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IT COULD STALL
SOMEWHERE IN OUR VICINITY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT
OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AWAY FROM WPC'S
FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY CEILINGS, TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS. HOWEVER, SITES MAY LOWER
OCCASIONALLY TO IFR (MAINLY KEFK/KMPV) OR IMPROVE TO VFR (MAINLY
KMSS/KPBG/KBTV) AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY
GENERALLY 4-6+ SM IN RAIN. RAIN EXITS TO THE EAST BY 18Z,
THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEYOND
THAT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT THESE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE,
PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR ALL EXCEPT KSLK. EVEN THERE,
LACK OF COVERAGE WARRANTS ONLY VCSH AT THIS TIME.
STRONG S/SE WINDS HAVE ABATED A BIT WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AND THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT THIS
TIME FROM THE W/SW. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO
SERVICE IS MAY 1ST. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HASTINGS
DISCUSSION...HASTINGS/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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