936
FXUS61 KBTV 271736
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE THE PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK, AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, CROSSING
OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 129 PM EDT TUESDAY...SOME VERY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NEK AND OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, THOUGH COVERAGE IS ISOLATED. HAVE INCREASED
MOUNTAIN POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET AND OUR TEMPERATURES WARM FOR TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, HAVE GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS
AS ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL THEN DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY, AND WE WILL HAVE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
TO TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 327 AM EDT TUESDAY...A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND REJOIN THE CIRCULATION OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CUTOFF LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
TRIES TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, NOTABLY THE GFS AND MANY OF ITS
ENSEMBLES. IF THE SECONDARY LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP, THERE WILL
LIKLEY BE SHOWERS DUE TO STRONGER FORCING WITH THE PRIMARY LOW
AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION FROM THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IF THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST, IT WILL
TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE PRIMARY LOW AND MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. THERE WOULD ALSO BE A LESS OF A
DEFINED FRONT AND COOLER CONDITIONS, SO CONVECTION WOULD BE
UNLIKELY. AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY DRY, THOUGH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST, AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 327 AM EDT TUESDAY...AS THE CUTOFF LOW REJOINS THE
CIRCULATION, IT WILL DEEPEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND INVIGORATE A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND IT. A POTENT SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER MID- ATLANTIC AND MOVE UP INTO
THE REGION AS ANOTHER NOR'EASTER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE IS VARIATION IN THE FORECAST STORM TRACK, ENSEMBLE
MEANS OF MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE INDICATE THE CURRENT MOST
LIKELY TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO MAINE, YET ANOTHER STORM THAT MAY TAKE AN IDEAL
SNOW TRACK IF IT WAS WINTER. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE ONE AT THE END OF LAST WEEK AS THAT IT WILL BE
MUCH FASTER MOVING, AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE REGION LESS
THAN 24 HOURS AFTER IT ENTERS, THOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THEREFORE BE
LESS, WITH GEFS, EPS AND CAN ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN AROUND AND UNDER 10 PERCENT. BEHIND THIS LOW,
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING LOOKS TO REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE KEEP SHOWER CHANCES INTO MONDAY, THOUGH ANY OF THOSE
WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT AND HAVE LESS AREAL COVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR
AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME VALLEY FOG IN EASTERN VERMONT, THOUGH CONDITIONS LOOK
LESS FAVORABLE THAN THEY DID THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. GIVEN LIGHT
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING, HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE TAFS. HOWEVER, THERE IS AROUND A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KMPV MAY SEE SOME BRIEF BR/FG EARLY IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OF VARIABLE
DIRECTIONS, MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOCAL TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DUELL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...DUELL
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