508
FXUS61 KBTV 051140
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 213 AM EDT SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 213 AM EDT SATURDAY...
1. A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT MAINLY DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
2. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TOWARDS MID-LATE WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 213 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RETROGRADING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BUT STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WITH BE ABLE TO UTILIZE THE MODEST MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DON'T EXPECT ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
AMOUNTS LIKELY PEAKING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOST PLACES,
HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AS AREAL COVERAGE WILL NOT
BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEPENING LOW
CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO TO
QUEBEC, WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE, THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE FURTHER
NORTH AND THE NOCTURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY SO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COOLER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS OR LOWER. INTERMITTENT IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AT
KSLK/KBTV/KEFK, WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TOWARDS MVFR GENERALLY
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT BACKS TOWARDS VFR GENERALLY BY
18Z TO 21Z DEPENDING ON THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE TRENDING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS 00Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT LEFT MENTION OF THEM OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...KREMER/CLAY
AVIATION...KREMER
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