594  
FXUS61 KBTV 270942  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
442 AM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE SAINT  
LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL  
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO  
THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE  
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP  
TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL  
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FROM  
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY...STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE  
OCCURRING AS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE  
GREENS. 850 MB JET WILL INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR  
AREA THIS MORNING, SO STRONGEST WINGS ARE YET TO COME. RAIN IS  
LIFTING NORTH INTO OUR AREA AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE SAINT  
LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS A SECONDARY LOW MOVES FROM THE HUDSON  
VALLEY EASTWARD, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE  
NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VERY CHALLENGING DUE TO  
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 2  
SURFACE LOWS PLACES OUR REGION UNDER HEAVY PRECIPITATION THIS  
MORNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER CONTINUES TO REMAIN NON-ZERO. AN  
UPDATE FOR THIS MORNING'S FORECAST WAS TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE  
LOWER 40S THIS MORNING, AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE  
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS, THESE STRONG  
DYNAMICAL PROCESSES COULD EFFECT THESE RAIN/SNOW LEVELS. QPF  
THROUGH 7PM WILL RANGE FROM JUST ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN  
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AFFECTED BY DOWNSLOPING AND SHADOWING OFF  
THE WHITES, TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH LONG THE SPINE OF THE  
GREENS AND IN THE DACKS. COULD SEE SOME HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WITH  
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWMELT, ESPECIALLY IN THE OTTER  
CREEK BASIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. CURRENT RFC FORECAST SHOWS  
OTTER CREEK AT RUTLAND REACHING ACTION STAGE. AT THIS TIME,  
HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED  
ICE JAMS WHERE ICE IS THIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS SHOW ICE  
THICKNESSES HIGHLY VARIABLE AROUND A FOOT OR LESS. WILL CONTINUE  
TO MONITOR THIS IN THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES.  
 
FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AND  
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY OFF THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A PERIOD OF  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE REGION. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY, MAINLY SOUTH OF  
ROUTE 3 WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PILE UP A BIT. WILL ALSO  
HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,  
THOUGH SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BLOWING AND DRIFTING  
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 343 AM EST THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS THE  
UPPER LOW LINGERS JUST TO THE NORTH, PROVIDING CLOUDY SKIES AND  
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE WIND  
DIRECTION COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT  
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN VERMONT AS WELL.  
DURING THIS TIME, A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, PROVIDING A NARROW ZONE OF  
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WHICH THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BE  
FOCUSED. HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT BAND  
SETS UP, THOUGH BY FRIDAY NIGHT, IT WILL MOST LIKELY SHIFT TO  
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL  
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE  
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY  
AND THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS EASTWARD. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS, WITH  
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 343 AM EST THURSDAY...NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A WARMING  
TREND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, INDUCING  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME BREAK IN CLOUD  
COVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WEAK SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO UPPER 30S FOR MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO  
RISE MID WEEK. SEVERAL PASSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL  
BRING ONGOING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA  
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE  
FIRST BOUT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO  
BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR  
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
RISE TO MID 40S TUESDAY THUS CHANGING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION  
ENTIRELY TO RAIN. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THOUGH THE FORECAST PROVES TO BE A  
CHALLENGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES DIFFERING SOLUTIONS  
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE  
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 2000 FEET IN THE  
40 TO 60 KNOT RANGE MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS STRONG LOW  
LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z. STRONG AND  
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME MAINLY FROM  
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT NORTHEAST AT KMSS. SURFACE GUSTS  
WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. AFTER 18Z SURFACE WINDS WILL  
BECOME MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL LOOKING AT GUSTS IN  
THE 15 TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT A  
BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF  
RAIN AND SNOW...BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN  
VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE. AFTER 15Z  
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR  
CATEGORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE STEADIER  
PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHSN.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHSN.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ003-004-011-  
016-017.  
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ018-019.  
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
NYZ026-030-031-034-087.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NEILES  
NEAR TERM...NEILES  
SHORT TERM...HAMMOND  
LONG TERM...HAMMOND  
AVIATION...EVENSON  
 
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