286
FXUS61 KBTV 091130
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 240 AM EDT MONDAY...
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 240 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. LOCALIZED ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE AND OPEN WATER
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
2. GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
3. A STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
4. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: ICE BREAKUP ON RIVERS BEGAN IN MANY PLACES
YESTERDAY, AND WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY,
MOST RIVERS SHOULD SEE ICE MOVEMENT BY THEN. ICE JAMS FORMED
YESTERDAY IN A FEW OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS AND REMAIN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY, THE AUSABLE, GREAT CHAZY, MAD AND MISSISQUOI RIVERS
HAVE ICE JAMS WITH SOME WATER BACKING UP BEHIND THEM. WHILE SOME
FIELD AND LOW LYING FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AND IS STILL
OCCURRING, NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAS HAPPENED OVER ROADWAYS OR
INTO STRUCTURES, OTHER THAN OVER A COUPLE ROADS IN FLOODPLAINS.
AS ICE BREAKUP CONTINUES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, A FEW ICE
JAMS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO FORM. THANKFULLY, NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
LOWER SNOWMELT. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE SOME ROOM FOR WATER TO
RISE BEHIND ANY JAMS THAT FORM BEFORE RIVERS REACH BANKFULL, SO
ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE ON THE MINOR SIDE.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF ICE JAMS MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE LACK OF
RAIN, OPEN WATER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN STORM TRACK. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION, SO A NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD LEAD TO
WARM RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT, AND A SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD
LEAD TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE SNOWMELT. IN THE FORMER
SCENARIO, MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE, MOSTLY
IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS ON THE OTTER CREEK, AND ON THE MAD, AUSABLE
AND WINOOSKI RIVERS. A SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK WOULD LEAD TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE FLOODING. IN EITHER SCENARIO,
WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. MOST RIVERS WILL
LIKELY HAVE FLUSHED MOST OF THEIR ICE BEFORE THEN SO MANY AREAS
SHOULD NOT HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ICE JAMS, BUT A FEW RIVERS MAY
HAVE LINGERING ICE PROBLEMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD
TODAY, WITH THE PEAK MAGNITUDE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. GUSTS IN
THE 35-50 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE
TO CHANNELING, WHILE THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 20-35 MPH
ELSEWHERE. WINDS IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER AND A RELATIVELY MIXED PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW 50 MPH GUSTS
TO REACH THE GROUND IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREAS THAT SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL STORM TRACK, A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP SO A CHANGE IN EVEN 50 MILES IN TRACK COULD
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 55 AND SHOWERY AND 30 AND FREEZING
RAIN, AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH SPREAD TO GIVE THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY. A COLD HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND SURFACE
COLD AIR LOOKS TO DRAIN DOWN INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH A LINE OF WEST TO EAST ORIENTED PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS DURING THIS FEATURE,
AND WHETHER THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DRAIN FARTHER SOUTH OR IS
FORCED BACK NORTH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST PLACES WITH THIS AND IT COULD END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW. THE ONLY PLACE THAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS PARTS OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT THE
EXTENT OF THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE A FLOOD THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 4: TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CLIPPER LOW WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION.
BORDERLINE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THE WARMER VALLEYS WHERE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AREAWIDE. WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A
BREAK IN THE ACTION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY. TOO FAR OUT FOR DETAILS AT THE MOMENT, BUT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION, THEN A CHANGE
BACK OVER TO SNOW AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DETAILS ARE QUITE UNCLEAR WITH THESE SYSTEMS
AS THEY ARE SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-13 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 35-45 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH 14Z, BUT SURFACE WINDS AND WINDS AT 2000 FT
AGL WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE AT KMSS, WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WINDS
WILL START TO LET UP IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
LIKELY FZRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
DEFINITE FZRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN, CHANCE
RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE POSSIBLE AT
PLATTSBURGH (PBG) AND BURLINGTON (BTV). BELOW ARE THE RECORDS
THAT MAY BE BROKEN OR TIED.
BTV: 41/2012
PBG: 39/1973
RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY (MONDAY
RECORDS ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN). AS OF NOW, THIS IS
FAVORED AT MONTPELIER (MPV) AND THE CURRENT RECORD IS:
MPV: 60/2016
EQUIPMENT
THE KBTV ASOS HAS SUFFERED A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE. THE ISSUE
HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE. THE AFFECTED COMMUNICATIONS LINE IS NOT
SERVICED BY THE NWS. TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE,
BUT REGULAR OBSERVATIONS MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026-027-087.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...NEILES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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