034
FXUS61 KBTV 071309
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
909 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 905 AM EDT TUESDAY...
QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT S/W ENERGY IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE
CPV. EXPECT AREA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL TO INCREASE,
AS BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARRIVE ACRS THE CPV AND MOST OF
VT. SOUNDING DATA SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY, WHICH WL RESULT IN
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES, THAT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO
ON GRASSY SURFACE AND A SLUSHY COATING ON ROADS. UPSTREAM
WEBCAMS CONFIRM THIS IDEA, ALONG WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 229 AM EDT TUESDAY...
1. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES.
2. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MID WEEK, WITH
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
3. AFTER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 229 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND THEN OVERHEAD BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY. MOISTURE IS
FAIRLY MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND EVEN AT THIS STAGE, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING JUST HOW EXTENSIVE SHOWER
COVERAGE IS GOING TO BE, AND WHETHER THE MOST PREVALENT ACTIVITY
WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. RADAR PRESENTATION ISN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AT
THIS POINT, CONSISTING MAINLY OF A SINGLE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AREA
OF SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH) FOLLOWED
BY MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID, OVERALL THOUGHT IS WE'LL SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING HELP TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES. THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION IS FAIRLY QUICK, AND
SHOWERS WILL END BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ONCE THE CENTER IS TO OUR
EAST. THIS WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT
OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW IN MORE ROBUST SHOWERS, WITH RATES OF 0.50 IN/HR OR MORE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SO SOME QUICK ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW LONG ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD LINGER BEFORE
MELTING, ESPECIALLY ON PAVED SURFACES. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY GOING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S, SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FALL MAINLY AS SNOW, EVEN IN WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET-BULBING.
WITH ALL THIS MIND, STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR
TWO OF ACCUMULATION, PARTICULARLY ON GRASSY OR RAISED SURFACES. SOME
LOCALES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES,
ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. TRAVEL COULD BE
A BIT TRICKY AT TIMES AS ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS REDUCE VISIBILITY AND
PRODUCE A QUICK ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS, SO MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO
USE CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.
ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS THIS AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH RIDGING FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE, SO EXPECT WE'LL SEE
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT'S ABLE TO HOLD
ONTO A BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER. THE RESULT WILL BE A BITTERLY COLD
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AREAWIDE. A FEW SPOTS
MAY EVEN GET DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER
TODAY'S CHILLY WEATHER, WE'LL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. WE SHOULD
HAVE OPTIMAL MIXING, SO DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOW, DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOW, 20 TO 30
PERCENT.
THE HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE ON THURSDAY, AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F, AND WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEYS. WHILE DEWPOINTS WON'T BE AS LOW AS ON WEDNESDAY,
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 20 TO 35
PERCENT, ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT START TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FEATURE,
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO EXACT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS,
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CAN
BE EXPECTED. ONCE THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION, HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE REGION. THE LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THESE TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER, ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS SNOW3 SHOWERS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY AROUND 2000 FT AGL OR SO. ALTHOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST, BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES,
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ANY IFR CONDITIONS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF, BUT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z OR SO AS
SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE
INTO THE REGION, WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE, BEFORE TRENDING BACK
TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO
SERVICE IS MAY 1ST. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HASTINGS/TABER
DISCUSSION...KREMER/HASTINGS
AVIATION...KREMER
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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