755
FXUS61 KBTV 281122
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 143 AM EST SATURDAY...
CONFIDENCE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN A LIGHT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 143 AM EST SATURDAY...
1. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS.
2. MARCH WILL START OFF COLD, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW STILL ON
TRACK FOR SUNDAY WITH LIMITED IMPACTS.
3. TRENDING WARMER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 143 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: WE'RE ON TRACK FOR VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. ASIDE FROM THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS,
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE CHANNELED THROUGH THE VALLEY, WITH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS OF WIND SPEEDS SHOW THE JET MAXIMIZING BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM
IN THE 50 TO 55 KNOT RANGE JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW INVERSION. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS 975 MILLIBAR WINDS IN BURLINGTON PEAKING
AROUND 41 KNOTS, SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 50 MPH.
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR/COLD SURFACE CONDITIONS, NOT SOLD ON
MAXIMIZING THIS POTENTIAL BUT LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN
ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SWEEPS
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MOVING
TOWARDS THE EAST, LIKELY DUE TO DECREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
NOTEWORTHY EVEN, WITH A COLD RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S DURING THE DAY, WITH
EVEN MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY, GIVEN A
WEDGE OF WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FEATURING 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 1 DEGREE CELSIUS. SOMEWHAT
DEEPER MIXING THAN EXPECTED COULD LEAD TO SOME SPOT 50 DEGREE
VALUES TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, WITH 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE PER HREF MEAN IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. A LINGERING THERMAL
GRADIENT, WITH RELATIVELY MILD AIR IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
COLDEST AIR; SINCE THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A SURFACE FEATURE TO ORGANIZE
THE SNOW, IT APPEARS A NARROW JET STREAK WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM. WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD, THE DEGREE OF
SATURATION ALOFT WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW. AS
SUCH, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING OF SNOW REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS THAT SOUTHERN AREAS REMAIN ON TRACK TO
SEE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW THAN FARTHER NORTH, BUT WITH
A WIDE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED IN THESE AREAS.
AS AN EXAMPLE, IN THE LATEST REFS, THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR
SNOWFALL ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF ORANGE, RUTLAND, AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IS 4", WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1-5" OR 2-6". IF AND WHEN
THE MID-LEVELS SATURATE, THE THERMAL PROFILES LOOK EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. VARIOUS ALGORITHMS TO
PREDICT SNOW RATIOS POINT TO VALUES GREATER THAN 20:1.
FOLLOWING THE LIGHT SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY, MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WILL BECOME ANOMALOUSLY COLD. THIS SPRAWLING
HIGH WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUCH THAT A BITTERLY
COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
ZERO AREAWIDE BY MONDAY MORNING. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY
MODIFYING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY RECOVER INTO THE
MID 10S TO LOW 20S, OR ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CONFIDENCE IN WARMING CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AS WE MAKE OUR WAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. WE'LL REMAIN
UNDER AN ACTIVE PATTERN, SO WITH AN ANTICIPATED WARMING TREND, WE
SHOULD ALSO BE TRENDING TOWARD MORE RAIN VS WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID THOUGH, THERE'S STILL A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS,
BETWEEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXIT TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY, MAKING WAY FOR
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THIS LATTER FEATURE; THERE'S STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE'LL HAVE EARLY IN THE
DAY FOR VIEWING OF THE "BLOOD MOON", THOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY CLOUDS
THAT ARE AROUND DURING THE MORNING WOULD BE HIGH AND THIN.
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SNOW BEING THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE, IN SPITE OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS AND A FAST FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM WOULD LEND TOWARD LESS OVERALL QPF, ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SETTING
UP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO
OUR NORTH. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT,
PUSHING WARMER AIR BACK NORTH ON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE QUESTION
IS HOW FAR THE WARM AIR IS ABLE TO INTRUDE ON THE COLD AIR THAT WILL
BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF
THE GREENS AND IN THE NORTHERN ST LAWRENCE/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. THE
CONCERN IS, OF COURSE, THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WHERE COLD
AIR IS SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SECOND
SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP TYPES AS A RESULT, AS IT WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE STRENGTH/POSITIONING OF THE HIGH AND THE TRACK
OF LOW PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REMAINS JUST RAIN/SNOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT COULD
COINCIDE WITH THE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTES (TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AS MUCH AS 12-24 HOURS FOR BULK
OF PRECIP). REGARDLESS, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO WARM
INTO THE 40S FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, ANY WINTRY PRECIP
WOULD CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND LOWERING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
IT CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AT
KMSS/KSLK WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD, WITH RAIN
SHOWERS (MIXED WITH SNOW AT KSLK) FROM 12Z TO 16Z. VISIBILITY
GENERALLY 5-6SM IN RAIN AND 3SM IN RA/SN, WITH CEILINGS
1500-3500 FT. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AS YOU
TRAVEL EAST AND SOUTH, WITH ONLY KRUT TO REMAIN DRY. SHOWER
COVERAGE WARRANTS ONLY PROB30 MENTION IN TAFS AT THE REMAINING
SITES ROUGHLY 14Z-18Z, AND ONLY KEFK TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS;
REMAINING VFR ELSEWHERE. OTHER CONCERN IS S/SW WINDS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS PEAK 12Z-16Z WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 KT EXPECTED, HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO
FUNNELING. LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST 8-10 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIODS AS WELL AS A 50+ LLJ SWINGS OVERHEAD.
WINDS TURN TO THE W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 5-10 KT BY 00Z SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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