337
FXUS61 KBTV 301118
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS ONGOING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FROST EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
1. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS ONGOING.
2. UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS FALLING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL END THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS PARTS OF VERMONT BEFORE ENDING LATER TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
BEGIN TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
AREAWIDE. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM OVER AN INCH IN PARTS OF
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO ABOUT FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH IN PARTS
OF VERMONT WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING WILL CUT BACK ON PRECIPITATION
TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF COLD FRONT, OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S, WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR FROST ADVISORY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE WE ARE NOW ISSUING HEADLINES FOR THE
GROWING SEASON AND THREATS FOR FROST.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WE'LL BE UNDER FAIRLY FAST, PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RESULT WILL BE ROUNDS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS, THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN IS HARD TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A MORE ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS POINTS TOWARD POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD
AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE'S STILL A LOT OF
DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT OVERALL
EXPECT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST 6-8 HOURS. VISIBILITY GENERALLY 4-6SM IN RAIN, BUT
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT AT KMSS/KSLK/MPV. ELSEWHERE,
PROBABILITIES OF CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FT ARE LOW, AND SO HAVE
GONE WITH BKN-OVC 1200-2800 FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS. RAIN COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
18Z, AND CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT THEREAFTER, REACHING MVFR/VFR BY
00Z. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WILL TURN TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...NEILES/HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
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