517  
FXUS61 KBTV 301851  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
251 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH  
OF TOMORROW AS A SERIES OF FRONTS TRAVERSES THE REGION. DRY WEATHER  
PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE THIS WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 251 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING  
AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW  
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THIS  
FEATURE WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TOMORROW, BUT THEY  
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL  
CONTAIN A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT ANY INSTABILITY SHOULD BE  
ELEVATED. CLEARING BEHIND THIS TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE  
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS ACTING AGAINST ANY  
SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT WITH HIGH DEW POINTS FROM THE REGION ALREADY  
BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND PLENTIFUL SHEAR, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS  
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW  
AND RESEMBLE A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME  
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND FROM THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO PREVENT  
EFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION, THERE WILL BE NO CIN BEHIND THE  
PREFRONTAL TROUGH, AND THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A DEFINED FRONTAL  
FEATURE/SURFACE CONVERGENCE. DESPITE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BEING  
VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN, FAST STORM MOTION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH  
OF A FLOOD THREAT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN  
TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 251 PM EDT MONDAY...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,  
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER  
HUMIDITY. BY AFTERNOON, DEW POINTS SHOULD BE DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR  
MOST AREAS. A TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND IT WILL  
DROP TEMPERATURES ALOFT, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY STAY LOW ENOUGH  
WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INHIBITED.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 251 PM EDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP  
INTO THURSDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS  
DIURNAL HEATING WARMS SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO  
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND IT WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE.  
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO CREATE A MORE LINEAR FEATURE IN THE  
AFTERNOON. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BUT THE COLD CORE  
SETUP IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE SHOWERS SHOULD  
DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE EAST AND  
THE DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. GUIDANCE IS NOW LEANING TOWARD HAVING A  
POCKET OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT STAY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY  
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MANY OF THE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH  
DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SHOWER CHANCES,  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN.  
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES  
INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE CLOSE  
TO SEASONABLE WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SKIES CLEAR WITH MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS,  
THOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY AND A STOUT LAKE BREEZE OF 13  
KNOTS AT KPBG. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH WINDS SUBSIDING  
AFTER 22Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFT NORTHEAST BETWEEN  
04Z AND 10Z, FOLLOWED BY MORE CONCENTRATED, MODERATE TO HEAVY  
RAIN TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ABOUT 10-13Z AND  
ACROSS VERMONT ABOUT 13Z-16Z. SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO  
3-6SM, LOCALLY LOWER POSSIBLE IN DOWNPOURS OR THUNDERSTORMS,  
AND THEN CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 1500-3500 FT AGL. SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 13  
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 16 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 
 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MYSKOWSKI  
NEAR TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
AVIATION...HAYNES  
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