991
FXUS61 KBTV 021830
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. HAZY SKIES
WILL BE WITH US THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH
WILDFIRE SMOKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH COOL MORNINGS AND WARM DAYS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTHERN US. WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUE TO BE A
SOURCE OF SMOKE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN US AS HIGH ALTITUDE WINDS TAKE THE SMOKE EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD OVER TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OTHER SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THERE CLEARLY IS SOME HAZE ALREADY IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AS SKIES HAVE BECOME MILKY IN
APPEARANCE. HAVE ADDED HAZE WORDING TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT BASED ON THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND CONTINUED
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN NORTHERN CANADA WILL HELP OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SLOW THE EXPANSION OF
LOWER ALTITUDE SMOKE. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERNMOST NORTHERN NEW YORK, BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IN
OTTAWA, CANADA THIS AFTERNOON OF RAPIDLY DEGRADED AIR QUALITY AND
THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE RIGHT NOW, HAZE WILL PROBABLY
THICKEN/LOWER IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. THAT SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE
WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE HAZE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY 10 DEGREES OR SO, AND REDUCE THE COVERAGE AND DURATION
OF VALLEY FOG FURTHER. DENSE FOG MAY BE LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AND A FEW OTHER RIVERS IN EASTERN VERMONT.
THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH NEAR-SURFACE WIND AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
TO MINIMIZE ANY POSSIBLE IMPACT OF SMOKE ON FORMATION OR INTENSITY
OF FOG, BUT THIS COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT, WHICH
WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN.
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO,
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
TRANSPORT MORE SMOKE INTO THE AREA. LATEST HRRR-SMOKE DATA SUGGESTS
TIMING FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO SMOKE AT GROUND LEVEL COULD
DEVELOP IN NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN VERMONT PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIKE TONIGHT, ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TEND TO LIMIT SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE SMOKE, AND ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS/AIR QUALITY EFFECTS. WHILE UNLIKELY TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THE SMOKE LAST SATURDAY, JULY 26TH, THOSE SENSITIVE
TO SMOKE SHOULD MONITOR GUIDANCE FROM THE VERMONT AGENCY OF NATURAL
RESOURCES AND NEW YORK DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING, CAUSING WINDS TO
TURN BACK TO NORTHERLY. THIS PATTERN COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PLUME
OF WILDFIRE SMOKE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP NEAR/AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SLIGHT
PREFERENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL DRYING SCENARIO, COVERAGE OF
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH A LARGELY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED; POPS ARE BELOW 10% AT THIS TIME. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALSO LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS MODEST WITH
GUSTS PROBABLY BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH. LOWEST HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
BE IN OUR SOUTHERN VERMONT VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S; THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAPPEN SOONER
FARTHER NORTH AND HELP LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID
80S AGAIN. LIGHTENING WINDS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A COOL
NIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG A GOOD BET; THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ENHANCED FOG DUE TO PRESENCE OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
ON TUESDAY, LIKELY NEAR RECORDS FOR THIS TIME YEAR ON
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, MORE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARM BUT
NOT HOT. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON (15-19%), THE PATTERN SUGGESTS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY DAY. GENERALLY THE AIR MASS WILL TEND TO REMAIN
MODERATELY DRY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING TO OUR EAST.
LOOKING AHEAD JUST BEYOND THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, THE 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK SHOWS VERY HIGH (80-90%) PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. WOULD EXPECT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO
RETURN WITH EVENTUAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL TO END OUR STRING OF DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL FOG AT MPV OVERNIGHT,
MORE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF FOG SHOULD BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH MORE WIND JUST OFF THE DECK; GREATEST CHANCES
ARE BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, BUT WOULD EXPECT PERSISTENT FOG MAY
LAST FOR ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, WILDFIRE
SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AIRSPACE,
BUT IT IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE OBSCURATIONS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR HAZE/6SM OR LOWER VISIBILITIES IS AT MSS, WHICH IS MORE
LIKELY AFTER 10Z.
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT MSS ARE PRESENT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO 15-20 KT GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z, AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF NEAR 10 KNOTS AT PBG WILL ALSO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THAT
TIME. OTHERWISE, MOST SITES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
A TREND TOWARDS LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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