696
FXUS61 KBTV 010518
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 301 PM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 301 PM EDT FRIDAY...
1. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. ASIDE
FROM A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY.
2. UNSETTLED, SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS NEAR OUR REGION. RISK OF IMPACTFUL
WEATHER HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT.
3. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 301 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAIN ON
TRACK TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, NARROW STRIPS STRETCHING
FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF REGIONALLY HIGHER
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH IN NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN AND ESSEX COUNTIES, WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME CELLS
WEST OF MONTREAL MOVING TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THAT WE
WILL BE WATCHING. OVERALL, THE PATTERN SUPPORTS SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY PULSING UP TO PRODUCE A RARE INSTANCE OF LIGHTNING
BUT LITTLE SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AND DIMINISHING PAST
PEAK HEATING/BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
SHOULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL; LOWS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LOW TOMORROW WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY (CAPE PEAKING NEAR 500 J/KG) AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION. A RARE SHOWER COULD OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY. LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH
SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL BE
LARGELY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR WEST (NEAR OTTAWA STRETCHING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LAKE ERIE).
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. IT APPEARS DEEPER CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST, NOT LINING UP
WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE RUN SHOWS A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
EXTREME RAINFALL, WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW
2". THAT BEING SAID, A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AND COOLING ALOFT WILL YIELD ENOUGH CAPE FOR AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHER RISK OF AN ISOLATED STORM WOULD BE OUT AHEAD OF WHERE THE
BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE (SUCH AS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
NORTHERNMOST VERMONT), AND THEN POSSIBLY SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH.
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTS A PREFERENCE
FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHWESTERN VERMONT WITH MUCH OF OUR AREA
MOSTLY DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAEFS SHOWS THE
AXIS OF GREATEST PWAT, WITH AN ENSEMBLE MEAN GREATER THAN 1.75",
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING, SHIFTING INTO VERMONT
AND DIMINISHING IN MAGNITUDE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE CORRIDOR OF DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPORTS EFFICIENT RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING OF
SHOWERS, AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS TARGETED TOWARDS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE EXPECTED AXIS OF PERSISTENT
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LEADS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FORECAST
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN VERMONT WHILE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER IN MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. PER UPPER AIR TEMPERATURE
CLIMATOLOGY, PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS,
ARE FAVORED TO BE HOTTEST ALTHOUGH NOTHING PARTICULARLY EXTREME;
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT REMAIN UNCERTAIN BUT CURRENTLY
FAVORED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, AVERAGING ABOUT
0.75" TO 1", WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (>15% AND < 40%) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EXISTS. TO THE EAST, AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 0.3" TO 0.5" ARE
INDICATED IN FAR NORTHWESTERN VERMONT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS REGION, 0.1" TO 0.25" IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMONT, AND UNDER 0.1" IN EASTERN VERMONT. WHILE THE LATEST
QPF IS FAIRLY BULLISH IN A DETERMINISTIC SENSE ON MONDAY IN VERMONT
(INDICATING AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5" TO 1" IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT), TRENDS TOWARDS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALOFT POINT TO LESSER,
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. SO WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY HAVE
AS ANTICIPATED INCREASED, HEAVY RAIN IS LOOKING UNLIKELY. INSTEAD,
IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, AS MUCH OF NORTHERN
VERMONT IS RUNNING AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MEAN 500MB RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
WITH A NEARLY 600DM HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ITS
AXIS JUST EAST OF VERMONT. THIS POSITION FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT AND FLOW OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH A BUILDING LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH ABSENCE OF STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB
LEVELS, HEATING MAY BE SELF-LIMITING AS DEW POINTS RISE PROMOTING THE
FORMATION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TERRAIN
INITIATED THUNDERSTORMS. STILL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE WITH HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 90
THURSDAY. SOME MODELS POINT TO A PASSING TROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL, SO
DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND THIS TRIGGER MECHANISM COULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE
A FEW STRONGER VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS SUSPECT THIS FAR OUT AND MAY NOT BE
COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM HEATING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z
WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4SM. BASED ON THE
POSITION OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS KMPV, KSLK, KEFK, AND KRUT AND IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ADDED INTO THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST VERY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (AT OR ABOVE 20KFT) MOVING OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...BOYD/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...CLAY
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