793  
FXUS61 KBTV 151827  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
227 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY  
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVING  
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FOR  
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  
IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT, ALLOWING DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 227 PM EDT MONDAY...THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. ANOTHER  
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH  
CONTINUING TO CREST OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP  
IN THE 40S AREAWIDE, WITH LOWERS 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  
 
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH  
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITHIN SOME OF THE  
BROADER VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP IN THE 40S  
AND 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 227 PM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT  
WEATHER FEATURE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE  
DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS  
WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S  
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL,  
WITH MORE RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 227 PM EDT MONDAY...THE REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THURSDAY, BEFORE A POTENT TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY  
AND BREAKS IT UP. IT WILL CAUSE THE CUTOFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN  
LINGERING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO REJOIN THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER,  
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AS IT PUSHES OFF OVER THE  
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND, AND RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY TO THE WEST AND  
MOVE INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT  
IT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, THE  
STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL  
HELP EVAPORATE WHAT FALLS. SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AND  
GEFS/EPS/CAN ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH  
ARE LESS THAN THIRTY PERCENT IN THE HIGHEST AREAS, AND THOSE  
PROBABILITIES ARE PROBABLY ON THE HIGH SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE  
WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE 80S EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE SEASONABLE OR EVEN  
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH  
FROST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE BROAD VALLEYS. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH FRIDAY, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD LEAD  
TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY APPROACH AND  
EXCEED CRITICAL VALUES ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE  
EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT AND IT WILL  
REACH MPV AND SLK. IT IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT REACHES  
EFK BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY TO FORM FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS A  
LOW CHANCE THAT IT REACHES RUT OR BTV, MAYBE AROUND 20 PERCENT. ANY  
FOG LIFTS SOON AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE  
REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE/TERRAIN  
DRIVEN, THOUGH AT SOME LOCATIONS THE DIRECTIONS WILL FAVOR NORTHERLY  
COMPONENTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND TOMORROW.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KREMER  
NEAR TERM...KREMER  
SHORT TERM...KREMER  
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI  
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI  
 
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