729
FXUS61 KBTV 061959
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH INTERVALS OF SHOWERS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ON THURSDAY, THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 358 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOES-19 SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
VERTICALLY STACK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN PA THIS AFTN WITH
DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW ACRS OUR FA. INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTN WITH LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATING JUST
A FEW POCKETS OF SFC BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-750 J/KG RANGE
OVER PARTS OF THE SLV. WE CONT TO EXPECT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
INSTABILITY APPROACHES 1000 J/KG THRU EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SLV,
BUT BEST PROBABILITY OF SVR CONTS TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA, WHERE
LIGHTING ACTIVITY IS MUCH HIGHER. EAST/SOUTHEAST DEEP LAYER FLOW WL
PRODUCE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS LIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS MOST
OF VT OVERNIGHT. TIMING INDIVIDUAL RIBBONS OF MOISTURE IN DEEP
CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CHALLENGING, ALONG WITH PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST QPF. HOWEVER, EAST/SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
GREENS/DACKS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR QPF AND HIGHEST POPS. AS
INSTABILITY WANES TOWARD MIDNIGHT, COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH DECREASING POPS. LOWS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DWPTS IN
THE 50S, WL STAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.
ON WEDS MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL POOL ALOFT WITH
PROGGED 500MB TEMPS NEAR -20C MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WITH TROF AND DEVELOPING THERMO-DYNAMICS WITH COOL POOL
ALOFT WL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON WEDS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN
VT, WHERE I HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY
MINIMAL WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 200-400 J/KG, SO THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WL BECOME MORE TRRN
FOCUSED AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND DEPARTING TROF.
HAVE HIGHEST LIKLEY POPS IN NORTHERN NY AND WESTERN SLOPES/NORTHERN
VT FOR WEDS NIGHT. LOWS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHT WITH
LOWERING SFC DWPTS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 358 PM EDT TUESDAY...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE NOW
LOOKING A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN BEFORE AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BE PASSING OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM THIS LOW AND WILL
BE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS IN OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL ON THURSDAY, MAINLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S BUT SOME 60S IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALSO
FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 358 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL LIFT FROM NEAR THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON
FRIDAY MORNING, NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD ON SATURDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW, AS WELL AS SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING
OUT FROM SURFACE LOW TO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. FEEL THAT NBM WAS TOO LOW FOR POPS ON SATURDAY SO
HAVE BLENDED IN SUPERBLEND BUT STILL TRIED TO REMAIN WITHIN
CONSISTENCY WITH MY NEIGHBORS. OUR WEATHER WILL THEN TURN QUIETER
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS AFTN WITH INTERVALS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING. AS SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AT MPV,
CIGS WILL HOVER NEAR IFR THRESHOLDS THRU THIS AFTN, WITH SOME
LOWERING TOWARD IFR CIGS BY 00Z POSSIBLE, AS STEADIER RAIN
SHOWERS ARRIVE. THINKING PERIODS IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR MPV
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
BELOW 2500 FEET. OTHER TAF SITES UTILIZING MOSTLY A PERSISTENT
FCST WITH A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. A STRONGER SHOWER OR
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VIS AT MSS THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WINDS REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT RUT/EFK, WHICH WL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST BTWN 09Z TO 12Z ON WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...TABER
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