912
FXUS61 KBTV 142336
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
EXPECTED LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND, GUSTY WINDS, AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 112 PM EST SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY OCCURRING
HERE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN VT, AND AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
AND COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LESSENS, THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON
THE FAVORED NORTHERN/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREENS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE WILL LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO
AT MOST, PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FT. OTHERWISE, TURNING
COLD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, ABOVE ZERO IN THE
VALLEYS AND BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE BREEZY SIDE, SO WIND CHILLS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY
MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE READINGS OF -10F OR COLDER, SO ANYONE
WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS SHOULD BUNDLE UP.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, KEEPING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20F. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END BY
AFTERNOON, BUT SNOW CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE
DAY AS WINDS START TO SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN NY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS
OF LAKE ONTARIO, THOUGH EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, SPREADING
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVENTUALLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY, WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, SNOWFALL
WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH, WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE
HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS. TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS COLD
MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH STILL COLD IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 112 PM EST SUNDAY...TUESDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. SOME AREAS WILL
EVEN SUNSHINE, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT EAST OF THE GREENS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL START TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S
AREAWIDE. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT, AND GUSTS OF
25 MPH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 20S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 112 PM EST SUNDAY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN IN THE BROADER VALLEYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOW 30S TO NEAR 40.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME FRIDAY. UNDER THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN
DURING THIS EVENT. IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION,
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION AS A
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT
OF THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WHERE CHANNELING IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION MAY
LIMIT HOW WELL WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. BLUSTERY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WITH COOLER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. AS WITH MOST
SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER.
BEYOND THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM, ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A FEW CLOUDS RESIDE AT THE PERIPHERY OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND SOUTHERN VERMONT ABOUT 4000-7000 FT
AGL. AN AREA OF UPPER VORTICITY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR
REGION. COOLING, SATURATION IS EXPECTED AGAIN, AND IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SNOW, AND THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A TREND
TO 1500-3500 FT AGL CEILINGS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SNOW WILL
BE AT KSLK, MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR KBTV AND KEFK, AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR KMPV AND KMSS. SNOWFALL CHARACTER WILL BE VERY
LIGHT, AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN BETWEEN 3-6SM FOR
MOST, BUT COULD REACH 2SM AT KSLK. NORTHWEST WINDS RANGE ABOUT 7
TO 15 KNOTS RIGHT NOW, AND SHOULD TREND TOWARDS 5 TO 9 KNOTS.
AFTER 12Z, ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH, BUT CEILINGS
WILL TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOUT
21-23Z WITH LIGHT SNOW AT KMSS REACHING THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, CHANCE
SN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...HAYNES/KREMER
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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