529
FXUS61 KBTV 221106
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 647 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WERE CANCELED FOLLOWING
SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES DID NOT QUITE REACH ANY DAILY RECORDS
TODAY AT PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 249 AM EDT FRIDAY...
1. FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL END THIS MORNING, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST TONIGHT LESS LIKELY DUE TO MILDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.
2. LIGHT RAIN AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MEMORIAL DAY.
3. REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH A DRYING TREND
LOOKING MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH NO EXTREME HEAT OR COLD ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 249 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: ASIDE FROM THIS MORNING'S COLD CONDITIONS, VERY QUIET
AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
TEMPERATURES TREND SEASONABLE. FOLLOWING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY, A
LARGE PLUME OF HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSPORT CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.
PER THE LATEST HREF, THERE IS STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT
THIS OVERCAST WILL REACH AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
IF THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS OPAQUE AS EXPECTED, THE MOS GUIDANCE,
WHICH INDICATES CLEAR SKIES, WILL DO WELL AGAIN WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES; THIS WOULD LEAD TO SLK/ADIRONDACK REGIONAL
AIRPORT POTENTIALLY SEEING ANOTHER FREEZE AND LOCALLY OTHER
PERENNIAL COLD SPOTS REACHING NEAR FREEZING. AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE ABOVE DISCUSSION, BEST CHANCE FOR NEEDING AN ADDITIONAL
FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WOULD BE IN ESSEX COUNTY, VERMONT,
BUT OVERALL THREAT OF FROST IS LOW TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD, LIGHT
RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE, ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
ONSET AND CESSATION REMAINS CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN. PRECIPITATION
WILL FOLLOW THE ARC OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT, WITH
GENERALLY A PROGRESSION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND STEADY
RAIN DIMINISHING GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
WITH INVERSION HEIGHT LOWERING TO ABOUT 2500 TO 3000 FEET,
PROMOTING SOME MODEST DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. THE
EFI HIGHLIGHTS THE RUTLAND AREA WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WINDS,
ALTHOUGH NOTHING UNUSUALLY STRONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
LOCALIZED GUST NEAR 40 MPH. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH HIGH END AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOKING NEAR 0.7". MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION RATES, SUCH THAT RAINFALL MORE LIKELY WILL BE ONLY
A FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH IN MOST AREAS, BUT THE RAIN
COOLED AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS DUE TO AN EARLIER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
FOLLOWING THE STEADY RAIN, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE ON
MEMORIAL DAY AND OVERALL, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW AS SHOWERS MAY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: AFTER A SHOWERY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE REGION. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
FOR MID WEEK AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT SWING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, THOUGH CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE A WEDNESDAY MORNING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP COMING THROUGH CLOSER TO THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING; EVEN WITH THE EARLIER TIMING, THE LATEST GFS
INDICATES A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS, HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, GIVING US A DRIER END TO
THE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SKIES GENERALLY SKC-FEW
AOA 15 KFT, STARTING TO INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER AFTER 21Z
FRI. WINDS REMAINING 5 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...HASTINGS/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...HASTINGS
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