133  
FXUS61 KBTV 040238  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
1038 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE ENDING  
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL  
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY BUT DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WITH A TREND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
EXPECTED BY MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1030 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN  
OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN  
NEW YORK DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. FOR  
SUCH REASONS, POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND MENTION OF THUNDER  
HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
SHOULD ABATE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS  
HAVE BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WITH THE WEATHER, AND WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT  
00Z, THOUGH LOWER CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY HANG ON ESPECIALLY AT  
SLK. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE  
WEST. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THOUGH TEMPERATURES WON'T  
DROP TOO FAR FROM THE PITIFUL HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVED THUS FAR  
TODAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO  
UPPER 50S. STILL THINK THAT WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP  
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD SHOWERS TODAY. WARM AIR  
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW BEHIND WARM FRONT WHICH LIFTED  
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM  
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80, MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. JUST A SLIGHT  
CHANCE FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER, SO SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY  
OVERALL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,  
AND PRETTY UNEVENTFUL WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF  
OUR REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 327 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK  
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE BUILDING HEAT AND THUNDERSTORM  
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACKUP TIMING OF A PRE-  
FRONTAL TROUGH FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED FORCING  
AVAILABLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MEAN 925MB TEMPS AROUND +20-  
22C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOCALLY 90, AND THIS  
COMBINED WITH MODEST MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG CAN'T RULE  
OUT A FEW ISOLATED TERRAIN OR LAKE BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND/OR  
STORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER COMES  
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA, BUT WITH LIMITED  
INSTABILITY WE SHOULDN'T SEE ANY STRONG STORMS. PWATS APPROACH  
1.5" THOUGH SO HEAVY RAINERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.  
 
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH  
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. WITH  
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT FEEL  
SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON, AND  
WITH JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY SOME MORE EMBEDDED THUNDER AND  
SMALL HAIL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE. AFTER A WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK  
AND MILD FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, SATURDAYS  
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL OR  
BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH AND  
UPPER 70S SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 327 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR  
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL  
CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS  
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LINGERING  
FRONTAL SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING WILL WANE GOING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRIER BUT COOLER AND GUSTIER CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S  
WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING 15-25 MPH. AS THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE  
REGION MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUE/WED WE'LL SEE A TREND BACK  
TOWARDS SEASONAL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WEDS  
WHERE LOW/MID 80S AND MAYBE A RUN AT 90 LOOKS POSSIBLE. LOWS  
START THE WEEK CHILLY IN THE 40S/50S, AND GRADUALLY WARM INTO  
THE 50S/60S BY MID-WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT AVIATION FCST  
EXPECTED WITH CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO LOCALLY LIFR  
POSSIBLE. CRNTLY TAF SITES ARE BTWN VFR AT BTV/MPV/RUT/MSS AND  
IFR AT PGB AND MVFR AT SLK. EXPECT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR  
THRU 06Z AT PBG/SLK WITH CIGS BKN-OVC AT 800 TO 1500 FEET.  
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING AS SFC DPWTS  
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, COMBINED WITH SOME  
RAINFALL TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE THE  
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG. THINKING INTERVALS OF  
PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE AFT 04Z AT MSS/PBG/SLK AND TOWARD 06Z AT  
MPV/RUT. HAVE UTILIZED TEMPO TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR  
BTWN 06Z-10Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO  
WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE, AS  
CIGS/VIS IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z AND PREVAIL THRU THE  
DAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
CHANCE TSRA.  
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NEILES  
NEAR TERM...HAMMOND/NEILES  
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF  
LONG TERM...LAHIFF  
AVIATION...TABER  
 
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