681
FXUS61 KBTV 051838
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
238 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 234 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
LIGHT SNOWFALL IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR THE BRIEF MIDWEEK
COLD SPELL.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 234 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1. SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
3. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 234 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER
EAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY BLOSSOM OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
COMES THROUGH, THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY ANCHORED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SUPPORTING SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. THE DEPTH OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOW-LEVELS, WHICH
WILL LIMIT TOTAL SNOWFALL TO GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VT AND NORTHERN NY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE NORTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS, WHERE
1-3 INCHES IS FORECAST. AFTER THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
LIGHT SNOW, THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY WILL TREND DRY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, THOUGH MODEL SPREAD ON TIMING THIS SECOND WAVE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS NOTABLY GREATER THAN THE FIRST WAVE. THIS TRANSLATES TO A
LOWER CERTAINTY ON WHEN AND WHERE WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THIS SECOND SNOWFALL. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS (NBM) HIGHLIGHTS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL VERMONT AS
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SEEING OVER 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THIS TIME FRAME ARE RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS (MAINLY
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY) AND THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREENS (MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN
ADDISON COUNTY).
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SWING THE TEMPERATURE PENDULUM
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT'S TEMPERATURES, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM FOR MOST
AREAS, BUT TRENDED TEMPERATURES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SLIGHTLY
LOWER. THIS YIELDS FORECAST LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
EXCEPT LOCALLY INTO THE TEENS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS. TUESDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. HAVE TRENDED LOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE NBM DURING
THIS PERIOD, YIELDING FORECAST LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES. AFTER
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE BEGIN A WARMING TREND TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT TO OUR EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER
60S THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT SOME PORTION OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WE'RE STILL SEEING SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE
SHOWS ANYWHERE FROM A GLANCING BLOW FROM A NARROWER BAND OF PRECIP
TO A MORE WIDESPREAD AND LASTING EVENT. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A MORE STATIONARY FRONT THAT ALLOWS FOR REPEATED BOUTS
OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...STUBBORN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME
SPORADIC IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE
OVERALL IMPROVING TREND, WE CHOSE TO GO EITHER PREVAILING OR TEMPO
IFR FOR EFK, MPV, AND RUT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRYER AIR
MOVING IN AFTER 20Z, WITH VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT FOR OUR
TERMINALS. MSS AND SLK COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN AFTER
00Z, TEMPORARILY DROPPING VISIBILITIES DOWN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO
SERVICE IS MAY 1ST. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DUELL
DISCUSSION...DUELL/LANGBAUER
AVIATION...LANGBAUER
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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