355
FXUS61 KBTV 251117
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 252 AM EDT SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 252 AM EDT SATURDAY...
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
2. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAILY SHOWER CHANCES
STARTING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 252 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A CONSISTENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION, SO DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS, BUT LIGHTER
WINDS WILL LESSEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. PEAK GUSTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND AND UNDER 10 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND EXCEPT ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO CHANNELING. A
VERY DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND EFFICIENT MIXING COULD CAUSE DEW POINTS TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN FORECAST ON ANY GIVEN DAY, THOUGH LOWER GUIDANCE WAS
ALREADY BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON
TUESDAY, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ASIDE, THIS STRETCH WILL
FEATURE GREAT SPRING WEATHER TO GET OUTSIDE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO AROUND AND BELOW FREEZING MOST NIGHTS, THEY WILL RISE
RAPIDLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE DAYS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST NEXT MID TO LATE WEEK PROMOTING DAILY SHOWER CHANCES.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 32 DEGREES WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WPC HIGHLIGHTS ONE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
WITH LIKELY CHANCES, BUT KEEPS SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. IT'S FEASIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONSIDERING HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
SHOULD CLOUD COVER BREAK, THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF APRIL/BEGINNING OF
MAY SUN ANGLE WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED INSTABILITY BY STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW SHOWERS TO PROLIFERATE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT. CURRENT PWAT PROJECTIONS OF LESS THAN 1" DON'T
FAVOR A COMPLETE WASHOUT, BUT DETAILED AMOUNTS ARE UNCLEAR THIS FAR
OUT. CONSIDERING SYNOPTIC FORCING, ENSEMBLE FORECAST PROBABILITIES
ARE LEANING TOWARDS AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.5" WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...PERSISTENT VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND BE MORE
TERRAIN DRIVEN IN ABSENCE OF A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE MSS WITH CHANNELING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST COULD
BUMP SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15-20KTS BRIEFLY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...BOYD/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...BOYD
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