395
FXUS61 KBTV 122316
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 709 PM EDT FRIDAY...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO FOLLOW THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, BUT THEY HAVE
BEEN GARDEN VARIETY. THE HEAT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WILL
BE EXPIRING SHORTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
1. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
2. COOLER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 8 PM
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN VERMONT AND NEW YORK AS WELL AS THE
LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE 50S INSTEAD
OF THE 60S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL BRING MUCH MORE SEASONAL AIR TO THE REGION TO START THE
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON
MONDAY. ON SUNDAY, A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BRING AN ABRUPT PATTERN CHANGE TO
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL YIELD STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HELP
INTERACT WITH A SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MORE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAN IS PRESENT TODAY. THE AI MODELS AND MACHINE
LEARNING ALGORITHMS ARE ACTUALLY FLAGGING SUNDAY TO BE THE MORE
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY WHICH FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF A
STRONG CHANGE IN AIR MASS EQUATING TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES
PIVOT AROUND THE LONGWAVE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP INCREASE
THE SHOWER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON A BIT DUE TO THE COOL AIR
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. GEFS, EPS AND CMCE COMBINED ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF
MORE THAN AN INCH AND TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAIN ARE 60-90
PERCENT AND 10-30 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY. THE ROUNDS PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF A FLOODING THREAT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN JUST EAST OF KEFK. OUTSIDE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS, SKIES WILL GENERALLY TREND CLEAR. IN SPITE OF
CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAIN, 15-25 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 500-1500 FT AGL. THOUGH IT MAY NOT RESULT IN LLWS, IT
WILL LIKELY BE TURBULENT OVERNIGHT, AND THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
FOG. SURFACE WINDS ALSO WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 5 KNOTS. SOME VARIABILITY IS POSSIBLE WHERE TERRAIN
INFLUENCES WILL COMPETE WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW, LIKE AT KRUT. THESE
WINDS LARGELY REMAIN INTO THE SATURDAY, WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KNOTS
AND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME COMPETING
FACTORS FOR WIND AT KPBG IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WINDS WILL
ABATE NEAR OR AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12:
KBTV: 94/2017
KMPV: 88/2017
KPBG: 94/2017
KMSS: 89/2005
KSLK: 90/1933
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12:
KBTV: 71/2017
KPBG: 67/2017
KSLK: 62/1996
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001-002-005-
009-011-021.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ028-035.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HAYNES/NEILES
DISCUSSION...NEILES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
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