733
FXUS61 KBTV 032320
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 243 PM EDT SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 PM EDT SATURDAY...
1. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCES
FOR RAIN, NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES, AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
2. COLD AIR LINGERING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TREND SEASONABLY
MILD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRING PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN BUT NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AREAS
OF FROST EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS POINTING TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. BY SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY PROMOTING
WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
A FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL MAINLY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
BORDER. LESS THAN 0.25" IS EXPECTED WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
0.33" OVER UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN GREENS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY WITH GUSTS LIKELY IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THESE BREEZES WILL
LINGER AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FREEZING LOWS ARE PROBABLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MAIN IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE DAYS 4 THROUGH 7
TIMEFRAME WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY WHERE A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION IS PRESENT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK BE A GARDEN KILLER WHERE VEGETATION
REMAINS ALIVE, WITH EXCEPTIONS POTENTIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, PARTICULARLY IN THE WIDE VALLEY THAT IS PRONE
TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER
INITIALLY FALLING OFF AFTER SUNSET, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO
OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. IN CONTRAST, SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WILL BE VULNERABLE
TO COLDER CONDITIONS AND FROST; THE LATEST PROBABILITIES OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 15-30%. MEANWHILE, THROUGHOUT THE
ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT,
THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE ABOUT 40-90%. WHERE WINDS REMAIN CALM
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES COULD FALL UP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST VALUES AND THE LOWEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
CONSENSUS IN THE LONGER RANGE (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
SHOWS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON
BAY FINALLY DEPARTING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO HOLDS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BUT LEAVES RAIN CHANCES HIGHER
TO OUR NORTH, AND LIKEWISE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, BUT A
COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL PROBABLY PASS BY TO SUPPORT A COOLING
TREND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS TYPICAL INCREASING SPREAD
IN THE TEMPERATURE RANGE EACH DAY, ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE AIR MASS CHANGE WITH ANY FRONT.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR REGARDLESS OF VARIABILITY. AS WE GET CLOSER TO
NEXT WEEKEND THE DETAILS WILL BECOME SHARPER WITH REGARDS TO
THESE FLUCTUATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATED TO
RADIATION FOG. PERIODS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY RESULT AFTER
ABOUT 06Z AT SLK, MPV, AND EFK. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, IT WILL TAKE MORE TIME FOR
FOG TO FORM BUT TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO DROP WELL BELOW
CROSSOVER VALUES. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT, LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AND COULD DISRUPT FOG AT MPV AND HAVE ENDED FOG A
BIT EARLIER THERE COMPARED TO EFK. FOLLOWING 12Z, INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR, LEADING TO WINDS AT CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
TERMINALS GUSTING NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE 20 KNOTS, WHILE EFK AND
MPV SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ALSO REACH 10-12 KNOTS WITH SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WINDS AT SLK AND MSS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BOYD
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/BOYD
AVIATION...NEILES
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