408  
FXUS61 KBTV 241416  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
1016 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
QUIET AND SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. PERIODS  
OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK, WITH WET  
PERIODS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND A BIT WARMER THAN  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1014 AM EDT SUNDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PICTURE  
PERFECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WE WENT AHEAD  
AND MADE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST AND KEPT SKIES CLEAR TO  
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BEFORE WE BRING IN  
A THICK BLANKET OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY  
BEGUN TO REBOUND NICELY UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES AND THE TREND  
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO  
MID 50S. ENJOY THIS SUNNY DAY AS IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE WILL  
GET MANY MORE IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY IS ONE MORE CHILLY AND DRY DAY.  
MORE SUNSHINE IN MOST SPOTS THAN YESTERDAY WILL HELP  
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AFTER PATCHY FOG  
LIFTS. SOME STUBBORN CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT IN VERMONT  
WHILE MAINTAINING THEMSELVES OR EXPANDING OVER NEW YORK DUE TO  
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY, PARTICULARLY IN THE  
MIDDAY HOURS. THOSE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT RELATIVELY COOL AIR  
OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND CREATE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR A THIN  
LOW CLOUD DECK.  
 
BY LATE IN THE DAY, AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN OUT OF THE EAST  
WITH A DRYING EFFECT. IN RESPONSE, THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE  
THAT ARRIVES ALONG A LIFTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY  
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE RAIN. HOWEVER, THE 700 MILLIBAR  
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN, FALLING  
AT A MODERATE TO HEAVY CLIP AT TIMES, AS THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY  
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH  
MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE COOL, DRY  
AIR OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE EFFICIENT  
COOLING AFTER DARK LIKE LAST NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STEADYING AND  
WARMING AS CLOUDS ARRIVE AT THE FLANK OF THE FRONT AND  
ASSOCIATED RAIN. SO WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S OR LOW 40S,  
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED IN THE EVENING IN MOST  
PLACES. THE EXPECTED WARMING ALOFT SHOULD HELP SNOW LEVELS  
INCREASE SUCH THAT NEARLY ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM  
OF RAIN EVEN AT SUMMIT LEVEL.  
 
FOR MONDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOW POISED TO EXIT THE AREA DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AFTER DEPOSITING 0.3" TO 0.8" IN MOST AREAS.  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY EVENING IN THE ST. LAWRENCE  
VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING, STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. MOREOVER,  
THIS AREA SHOULD SEE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE NORTHEAST CHANNELED WIND,  
AND HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE  
DAY. ELSEWHERE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AFTER THE DEEPER  
MOISTURE LEAVES, SO CLOUDS ALONG WITH EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS A BIT  
LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING MAINLY FROM 44 TO 49.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 416 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK  
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND ON TUESDAY IT WILL TRACK OFF THE NEW  
ENGLAND COAST. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS  
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM  
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHEASTERN VERMONT  
TO THE MID 40S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. DESPITE BRISK NORTH  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL STILL  
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S, WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN  
VALLEY. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH  
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST  
TO THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND  
THE SURFACE LOW, ALSO TRACKING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY.  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL  
RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, UP TO  
NEARLY AN INCH AND A HALF IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. HIGHER RAINFALL  
TOTALS WILL REMAIN MUCH CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER AND TRACK, MAINLY  
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 416 AM EDT SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE A  
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH A RETURN TO DRY  
WEATHER DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION  
WILL BE A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE  
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE  
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD  
AND OFF THE DELMARVA COAST, THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF  
MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO OUR AREA  
FROM THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BULK  
OF PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT  
HOURS ON SATURDAY, BUT CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW  
CONTINUES TO REMAIN NOT TOO FAR AWAY. WE WILL AGAIN HAVE  
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME AND WILL  
HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AS THIS SYSTEM HAS EVEN  
BETTER JET DYNAMICS. THE LATTER SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER MOVING AS IT  
CROSSES THE AREA, AND THEREFORE COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE A BIT MORE  
QPF. RIGHT NOW IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS  
WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE UP TO ANOTHER 2" OF RAIN IS  
POSSIBLE. MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN  
ACCUMULATE AS WELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE  
AFTER 06Z AS STEADY RAINFALL SPREADS NORTHWARD ALONG A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. THIS MORNING FREEZING FOG AT SLK WILL DISSIPATE BY  
14Z, WITH OTHERWISE SKIES CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AIRSPACE  
THROUGH 18Z BEFORE 6000 FOOT OR HIGHER SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD.  
RAIN SHOULD FIRST REACH RUT AROUND 06Z AND NEAR EFK BY 12Z, AND  
SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 3 - 5 SM AND  
LOWERING CEILINGS OF 1 TO 2 THOUSAND FOOT CEILINGS COMMON. WINDS  
WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING FROM  
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY TO EASTERLY TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF  
NEAR TERM...CLAY/KUTIKOFF  
SHORT TERM...NEILES  
LONG TERM...NEILES  
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF  
 
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