749
FXUS61 KBTV 230705
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
305 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 303 AM EDT MONDAY...
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS VERMONT WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, HIGH-RES DATA NOW SHOWS WE COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES
FOR THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING MT. MANSFIELD AND JAY
PEAK THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 303 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING; SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
2. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED.
3. MULTIPLE SYSTEMS BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, FOLLOWED
BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 303 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: WHILE PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF THIS
MORNING, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM IN VERMONT. RADAR RETURNS DON'T
LOOK LIKE ANYTHING IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN THE
WAY, THE RADAR IS UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE NIGHTTIME RGB ON GOES 16 HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE, MOSTLY WITHIN THE DGZ, WHICH CONFIRMS
THE HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS OF A LACK OF SNOW NUCLEI WITHIN THE DGZ.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL CHANGE
OVER ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH 10 AM OR
SO BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WE START TO
SATURATE THE DGZ WITH ICE NUCLEI.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL HEATING DUE TO PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER, WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BY LARGELY
FOCUSED ACROSS VERMONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LAGGING BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR CWA WITHIN THE BEST JET
DYNAMICS (LEFT EXIT REGION) TO HELP PRODUCE SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL
DYNAMICS. THE TROUGH PLACEMENT IS WHAT SHOULD HELP FOCUS THE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT WITH NEW YORK HAVING A MORE DIFFICULT TIME
DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. OVERALL, SNOW
WON'T BE HEAVY WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN A DUSTING AND
ONE INCH. THAT BEING SAID, CONVERGENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE NORTHERN GREENS TO DO QUITE WELL WITH 2-4 INCHES
EXPECTED ABOVE 2500 FT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES BUT THEY WON'T FULLY SHUT OFF
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY THIS WEEK AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY
MAY ALSO BE OUR ONLY GLIMPSE OF THE SUN FOR THE COMING WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BEST
MOISTURE AND FORCING IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE BORDER BUT WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN INITIALLY, CHANGING TO ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A SHORT-LIVED DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. IN THIS PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
TALKED ABOUT FURTHER IN KEY MESSAGE 3.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT PUSHES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A
BOUNDARY MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO A WARMER SOLUTION, BRINGING PRIMARILY RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WE COULD SEE A BRIEF UNSEASONABLE COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SEASONAL NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL, EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE RELATIVELY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH A CHANCE OF SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN SNOW ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EAST OF OUR TAF
SITES THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS IN TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW,
COMBINED WITH BLOCKED FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AT RUT AND BTV THRU 12Z MONDAY WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
MPV AND EFK ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION
HEIGHT, WHILE MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT PBG AND SLK WITH
SOME DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BEFORE DECREASING. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A
MIXTURE OF MVFR AT RUT/BTV/SLK/MPV AND EFK WITH VFR AT PBG/MSS
BY 16Z MONDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
16Z-22Z, WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS IN THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SN, CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA,
CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-017>021.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ027-
030-031-034.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...CLAY/VERASAMY
AVIATION...TABER/VERASAMY
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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