232
FXUS61 KBTV 081117
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 233 AM EDT SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 233 AM EDT SATURDAY...
1. INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
2. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIKELY FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION.
3. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 233 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
REGION AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN A BERMUDA HIGH AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION, SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
BEEN THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS, AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN RATHER SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME, FOR EXAMPLE ESSEX COUNTY, NY WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WERE
ISSUED OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARDS THE
MORNING, BEFORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP LATER IN THE
DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG OR SO, WITH
RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR, WITH THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE GARDEN-
VARIETY, BUT A STRONGER STORM CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY
POSSIBLE HYDROLOGICAL/FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED DECENT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. WPC
CONTINUES TO HAVE A MARGINAL ERO ACROSS THE REGION FOR TOMORROW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RATHER UNIMPACTFUL. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A NARROW AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START THE WEEK, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, WITH A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.STRONGER STORMS CURRENTLY LOOK UNLIKELY
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR
ANY TRENDS IN THE DATA IF THEY DEVIATE FROM THE CURRENT THINKING.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH UNBLOCKED FLOW
DOWNSTREAM AND LARGELY THE RESULT OF A MASSIVE OMEGA HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN US AND CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR QUICK MOVING
SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BRINGING PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
WEAKER SYSTEMS AND LEAN TOWARDS A SLOW COOLING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO DIP BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RETREATS SOUTHEASTWARD. AS SUCH,
HIGHS IN THE 80S TUESDAY WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...WIDELY MIXED LIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ONGOING FOR AREA TERMINALS. LOCATIONS LIKE MPV/SLK ARE
EXPERIENCING LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIG. FOG/MIST HAS BEEN
LESS PREVALENT, BUT HAS OCCURRED AT TIMES; SUNRISE WILL LIKELY
DISPERSE ANY REMAINING FOG/MIST BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AFTER 14Z WITH SHOWERS RETURNING 18-00Z. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MORE
FOG AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT, BUT
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CAN CLEAR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KREMER
DISCUSSION...KREMER/BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD
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