430
FXUS61 KBTV 242327
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 218 PM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 218 PM EDT FRIDAY...
1. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
2. DRY, WARM, AND WINDY WEATHER IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, KICKING OFF A
SHOWERY PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 218 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS VERMONT AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AS WE ARE ON THE
BOUNDARY FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS FURTHER SOUTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND LEAD
TO MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A
WARMING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY.
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIX RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH MIN RH VALES GENERALLY
IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH A FEW POCKETS A LITTLE LOWER THAN 30%. WITH
THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WE DON'T FORESEE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BUT STILL ADVISE EVERYONE TO FOLLOW ANY BURN BANS
IN PLACE (LIKE NEW YORK) AND FOLLOW THE ADVISE OF LOCAL FIRE WARDENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING
WE GET, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IN
THE COLD HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THEN ON
TUESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS, PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE 70S FOR BROADER VALLEYS. AS A REX BLOCK TYPE
OF PATTERN SETS UP WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT,
PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THAT TOGETHER, WE ANTICIPATE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY WITH RHS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS WHILE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCUR. ONCE RAIN DOES
ARRIVE, MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH RAIN TO EXPECT AND HOW LONG RAIN
LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WANTS TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LINGERING MULTI-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOW TO PUSH THE RAIN THROUGH,
BUT EVENTUALLY WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BREAK FROM SHOWERS RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST MODEL BLENDS SIT THE PRECIP AMOUNT
AROUND 0.10" IN 24 HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATE
APRIL/EARLY MAY SUN ANGLE WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN CEILINGS AROUND 6000 FT WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING, LEAVING SKC OVERNIGHT. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS START TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 12Z, BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AOA 15 KFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
TERRAIN-INFLUENCED, BECOMING N/NW 5-10 KT AFTER 14Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...CLAY/STORM
AVIATION...HASTINGS
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