186  
FXUS61 KBTV 080627  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
227 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EXITS  
THE REGION. AFTER A STRETCH OF RECORD HEAT, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH FROSTS AND FREEZES  
LIKELY IN MANY PLACES OVERNIGHT. QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 222 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY  
COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS  
THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN 0.5  
AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT, WITH  
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND SOUTHERN VERMONT SO  
FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS STILL ONGOING IN THESE LOCATIONS. IN THE  
WAKE OF THIS FRONT, COLDER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
REGION UNDER BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON THE  
THE RECENT RECORD- BREAKING WARMTH THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. A  
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A FEW POSSIBLE FLAKES AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE  
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO  
THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, BUT ELEVATED WINDS AND SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING CLOUD COVER  
MAY HINDER HOW COLD LOCATIONS GET AND ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 222 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED  
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S.  
THESE SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION  
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVERHEAD, ALLOWING  
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES  
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCATIONS  
NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOME OF THE COLDEST HALLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS  
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM, SUCH AS SARANAC LAKE, MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE  
TEENS. WITH SUCH COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, HEADLINES  
RELATED TO THE FROST/FREEZE WILL BE NEEDED OUTSIDE OF THE  
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE THE PROGRAM IS STILL ACTIVE.  
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE QUITE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,  
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AFTER A  
CHILLY START TO THE DAY, WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 222 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD, IT BELIES  
THE COMPLEX PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL  
DIG SOUTHWARD, BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DOES  
SO. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND  
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A 1024MB HIGH SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN  
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THE COMPLICATED INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES  
WILL DICTATE WHETHER WE SEE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, OR IF WE STAY DRY.  
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DROPPING THE UPPER  
LOW SOUTHEASTWARD AND ALLOWING IT TO CAPTURE THE SURFACE LOW AND  
DRAW IT NORTHWARD TO NEAR LONG ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN  
RAIN SPREADING OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRONG HIGH IN PLACE,  
SHUNTING LOW PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPING RAIN OVER SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND. DO NOTE THAT MOST OF THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS  
FAVOR THE SECONDARY SOLUTION, WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING AN  
NORTHERN OUTLIER, EVEN AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE  
NBM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, LIMITING POPS  
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND OVER MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. EITHER WAY,  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MIX OF MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF  
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS  
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO SEE AT  
LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH 10Z AS THE  
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOWERS TREND LIGHTER  
THEREAFTER, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z-14Z. CEILINGS LIFT TO  
VFR ONCE THE RAIN ENDS, AND EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS 3500-6000 FT TO  
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. N/NW WINDS OF 5-10  
KT BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT AT MOST TERMINALS  
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THOUGH GUSTS MAY SUBSIDE FOR A FEW  
HOURS 08Z-14Z AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN KBTV. GUSTS TO AROUND 20  
KT WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. AREAS FROST.  
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTH  
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN IN  
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE  
OVER THE BROAD LAKE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN TOWARDS  
DAYBREAK, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TOWARDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES  
WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KREMER  
NEAR TERM...KREMER  
SHORT TERM...KREMER  
LONG TERM...HASTINGS  
AVIATION...HASTINGS  
MARINE...WFO BTV  
 
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