681
FXUS61 KBUF 091058
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
658 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUE
TODAY.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY
LEVELS CONTINUE TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES. WHEN COMBINED WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEVELS, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING
THE MID 90S FOR AREAS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN
FINGER LAKES/LOWER GENESEE VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO BEFORE A WEAK/WAVY
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUPPORTING A MORE EXPANSIVE STABLE LAKE
SHADOW NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO, LIKELY KEEPING
LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES MAINLY DRY, AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TODAY ALONG AND INLAND OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FASTER
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO POOL AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. THE
BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY/SL VALLEY WITH
VALUES NEAR 30-35 KNOTS, AND TRAILING OFF WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE OVERALL MODEST INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR, A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR WHICH SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE BULK OF
OUR AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARD FAR NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE SL VALLEY CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND
HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. THE OTHER MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP FOR WHICH WPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK IN PLACE. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING WILL LIE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR TRAINING STORMS EXISTS.
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW,
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A RISK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. COLD
FRONT WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOCALIZED LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER ASSOCIATED
WITH VALLEY FOG WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. AN INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THIS AND DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH MODEST
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES. THESE
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE FIRST AT KIAG/KJHW DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON, THEN AT KROC/KBUF/KART AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION/RESTRICTIONS FOUND AT KIAG.
TONIGHT THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA, WHILE GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY PRODUCE ASSOCIATED BRIEF/
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS, WITH GENERAL VFR CEILINGS TO START THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE DETERIORATING TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AS A WEAK UPSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT TIMES ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...OTHERWISE A MIX OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-15 KNOT WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT TO LOW-END MODERATE CHOP ON THE LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM/JJR
MARINE...JM
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