129
FXUS61 KBUF 111822
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLE WEATHER RETURNS
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM. EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER AGAIN GRACES
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAKENING FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BUT HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE AND THE BEST SUPPORT REMAINS WELL DISPLACED TO OUR
NORTH.
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WE WILL SEE SOME DIRUNALLY DRIVEN CU INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE...SUNFILLED SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F IN SPOTS.
TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCALES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE 500MB RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST A BIT AND THEN ALSO
AMPLIFY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE AMPLIFYING. THE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS OCCURS WILL BE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THESE
FEATURES CREST THE RIDGE AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
LAKES, WE 'POTENTIALLY' COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM PREDAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...THERE STILL
REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, COVERAGE, AND
PLACEMENT OF STORMS. RIGHT NOW...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN
TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A BETTER SHOT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT GONE
WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS (25-40%), IT IS POSSIBLE
SOME SPOTS MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AT ALL. AFTER THE FRONT EXITS BY
SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
REGION WITH A RETURN EVERYWHERE TO DRY WEATHER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RIDGING OUT OF CANADA WILL SUPPORT FINE FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHT
WARNING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT WINDS TODAY OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND VFR AT AREA TERMINALS.
TONIGHT...SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY IMPACT KJHW
AFTER 07Z. OTHERWISE...VFR TO CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE MORNING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY AND THEN
DROP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT TO
MODEST CHOP SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION THEN IS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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