765
FXUS61 KBUF 032356
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SLOW MOVING LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST, BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A STEADY STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS, FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL BE FOUND IN THE 40S
OVERNIGHT.
A LARGE LUMBERING CLOSED LOW OVER KY AND TN WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT
A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY. OVERALL,
EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME BRIEF DRY PERIODS AT TIMES.
INITIALLY, A BROAD SFC LOW WILL NEAR THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WE 'MAY' SEE LESS COVERAGE IN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WNY. THIS
APPEARS TO OCCUR AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION GETS
NUDGED NORTHWARD AND THEN A DRY WEDGE WORKS INTO THE AREA. THAT
SAID...ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO ROLL IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...NOT
TO CONFIDENT (LOW) IN TERMS OF OVERALL INSTABILITY BEING ABLE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
S. TIER. THIS IS WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A GENERAL MENTION OF THUNDER.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY SUNDAY. HREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A 10%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS UNDER 2" IN 3HR AND IF TRAINING
SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS MATERIALIZE IT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST SIGNALS ARE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 50S FOR HIGHS TO LOW 60S IN SPOTS.
NORTHEAST WINDS ALSO PICK UP SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A CUTOFF LOW
PERSISTS NEAR THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWERS OR
PERIODS OF RAIN AS A WARM CONVEYOR BELT SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND SENDS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. OVERALL,
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF AN INCH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL YIELD PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD OF A THIRD TO THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH, BUT THERE IS A CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS EXCEEDING AN
INCH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE
FINALLY WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND PROGRESSING OFF TO THE EAST
BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSING OVERHEAD, FOLLOWED BY SOME
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
UNFORTUNATELY, RIGHT ON ITS HEELS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OUT THE STALLED UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH AND
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER WITH SIGNS
OF IMPROVEMENT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN LESSENING AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION (KART/KGTB) WILL
BECOME MVFR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND MAY BECOME VARIABLE
AT SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE AN EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR/IFR
SUNDAY. THERE IS AN ISOLATED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR, WITH SHOWERS. A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR TO MVFR, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKES TO START THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, SUCH THAT CHOPPY WATERS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON LAKE ERIE. THE
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS NOW FOUND ON THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WATERS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR/HSK
NEAR TERM...AR/HSK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...AR/THOMAS
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