655  
FXUS61 KBUF 221059  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
659 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL GRACE THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS  
ANOTHER FAIR DRY WEATHER DAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL RIDE  
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, HOWEVER JUST HOW CLOSE THIS SYSTEM  
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WILL DETERMINE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE  
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE  
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK RETURNING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
CURRENT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PRIMARILY  
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS OF SOME  
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND  
THE OSWEGO RIVER VALLEY. VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW  
HOURS OF SUNRISE.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL  
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COMFORTABLE WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS  
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF A  
TROPICAL SYSTEM DEEPENING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. TODAY WILL  
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE ONTO  
NORTH CAROLINA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK  
WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER PUSHING OFF THE NEW  
ENGLAND COAST. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS FROM THE INCOMING TROPICAL SYSTEM  
AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EXTENDED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WARMER  
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THEN AS THE  
TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW YORK LATE SATURDAY. OVERALL THE  
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THICKENING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY AS THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER  
60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF  
THIS PERIOD...AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN  
INTRODUCED BY WHAT WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL  
SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.  
 
AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING SUB TROPICAL LOW  
WILL BE CHURNING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHILE A  
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE  
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT COME FROM THE  
FORECAST POSITIONS OF THESE FEATURES...BUT FROM THE RESULTING SHARP  
CUTOFF BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING CIRCULATED BACK  
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NOTABLY DRIER AIR BEING FUNNELED  
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS BATTLE WILL PERSIST  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE STEADILY WEAKENING SFC LOW  
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE DISSOLVING  
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.  
 
THE RESULT OF THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FOR LOWERING AND THICKENING  
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND PARTICULARLY OVER THE  
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED  
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST PACKAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A TENTH OR TWO  
OF AN INCH FOR THESE MENTIONED AREAS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR DRY  
WEATHER TO PERSIST WILL BE ACROSS THE IAG FRONTIER/AREAS NEAR LAKE  
ERIE...AND SITES NORTH OF THE TUG HILL.  
 
WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR  
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH  
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE THE UPPER HAND IN CONTROLLING THE  
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A HIGH-OVER-LOW REX BLOCK IS BEING ADVERTISED  
TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE  
PROXIMITY OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW PORTION OF THIS BLOCK OVER THE  
MID WEST/UPPER OHIO VALLEY THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS THIS  
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER AND A RISK OF SHOWERS JUST TO OUR  
SOUTHWEST.  
 
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND SOME  
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE OSWEGO RIVER  
VALLEY THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR SUPPORTING ALL TAF  
SITES TO BE UNDER VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, EXCEPT FOR KART WHERE THERE  
IS MVFR VISIBILITIES. HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTING THESE CONDITIONS WILL  
REMAIN THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING AND EXTENDING BACK WEST TODAY. AS  
THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND ALL TAF  
SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR.  
 
AN INCOMING TROPICAL STORM RIDING NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD  
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT AND INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS  
SOUTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASING  
CLOUD COVER, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING  
VALLEY FOG.  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL  
PUSH EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE EXTENDING BACK WEST TODAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY. OVERALL THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIR DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY  
LIGHT WINDS AND A LIGHT CHOP. HOWEVER THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE  
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WHERE AN ELEVATE EASTERLY WIND WILL  
SUPPORT SOME CHOPPIER CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO  
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
MEANWHILE, A COASTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE COAST LINE OF NORTH  
CAROLINA TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON BOTH LAKES  
ERIE AND ONTARIO BY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH  
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...EAJ  
NEAR TERM...EAJ  
SHORT TERM...RSH  
LONG TERM...RSH  
AVIATION...EAJ  
MARINE...EAJ  
 
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