735
FXUS61 KBUF 131430
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2020
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN COOLER WEATHER
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION TODAY WITH ONLY
PASSING CIRRUS DEPARTING THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA AS OF
1030 AM. MORE CIRRUS IS POISED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, BUT
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AND DEEP MOISTURE LIMITED TO
PENNSYLVANIA, AN UTTER CHASM OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL BE OUR
PREDOMINANT REGIME FOR TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND STILL LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
YET ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY
NIGHT.
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AS THESE TWO AIRMASSES DRAW CLOSER A STRONG
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD, THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
BY SUNDAY, THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL QUICKLY DEPART AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL TRANSFER TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION WHILE MOISTURE SPILLS INTO NEW YORK STATE. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID-WEST
AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH ITS ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE, EXPECT
THE CHANCES AND LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION AND ENTERS THE NORTHEAST, CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENGULF MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID, RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE MAY BE CONDUCIVE
TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RANGE IN THE
70S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF 80 DEGREE READINGS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH NO CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL LIGHT
WINDS AND WAVES ON THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW, WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRIES/TMA
NEAR TERM...FRIES/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...EAJ/HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
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