926  
FXUS61 KBUF 051039  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
639 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, PRODUCING AREAS OF  
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH A  
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THE KEY FEATURE TO OUR FORECAST IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED  
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO AT DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THIS WILL  
PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS WHICH HAD THIS AREA CLIPPING THE  
SOUTHERN TIER HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED, RESULTING IN LOWER QPF AND  
LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.  
 
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS  
MORNING, BEFORE REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. IN A GENERAL  
SENSE, THE PASSING TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE  
ASCENT AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME ADDED  
SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT 250MB JET. THIS  
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL  
NY THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY DUE TO A MORE FAVORABLE  
DIURNAL TIMING WHICH WILL ALLOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY UNEVEN (WHICH IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE  
CASE WITH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SUMMER RAIN). A FEW AREAS MAY SEE  
BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS OF OVER 0.50", WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE VERY  
LITTLE.  
 
FOLLOWING THIS FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,  
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DEVELOPING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND  
OTHER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.  
 
THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY  
THIS EVENING. THAT SAID, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH  
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT, AND WITH A MOIST LOW  
LEVEL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW SPOTTY  
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
OVERALL RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AND  
QUIET WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN OVER THE LAKES. THE ONLY  
HICCUP IN THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED  
SHORTWAVE TO RIDE ALONG THE H850-700MB THERMAL BOUNDARY WHICH HANGS  
UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE (IF  
REAL) IS ADVERTISED AT THE MONUMENT TO LARGELY AVOID OUR AREA  
TRACKING NEAR THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH...IT MIGHT  
STILL INITIATE A SHOWER OR STORM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON AS  
IT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE THINKING IS IT WILL 'LIKELY' BE FAR ENOUGH  
REMOVED (SOUTH) TO 'NOT' BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BADLY NEEDED  
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT  
MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS  
FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED AS IT PASSES ON FRIDAY.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT  
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP INTACT OUR CURRENT DRY TREND OVER  
THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION  
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIPPING OFF THE MID  
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS  
WEEKEND. AFTER THAT...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO  
THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHES FROM  
THE NORTHWEST (THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF ARE  
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO REMAIN  
INTACT AREAWIDE). THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN DAILY HIGHS SETTLING BACK INTO  
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS THEN BOUNCING  
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF  
WARMER AIR SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.  
MEANWHILE...NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER  
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH  
COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING AND INTO  
CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR  
SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF CONVECTION  
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TROUGH  
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT  
MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS  
TROUGH DUE TO LOWER CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, FOCUSING ON LAKE  
BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  
 
COOLER AIR AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WITH MAINTAIN LOTS OF  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER  
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE MAJORITY OF  
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCAL/INLAND MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA/TSRA.  
SATURDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LOW PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES TODAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE  
WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING  
THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS  
EVENING FOR NYZ010-019-085.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR LEZ040-041.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL  
NEAR TERM...APFFEL  
SHORT TERM...AR  
LONG TERM...AR/JJR  
AVIATION...APFFEL  
MARINE...APFFEL  
 
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