801
FXUS61 KBUF 012324
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
724 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY,
WITH A FEW MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING DRY WEATHER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, AND NOTABLY
LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A MIX OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEMS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN QUEBEC AS THE 500MB TROUGH LAGS BEHIND JUST TO OUR
WEST IN EASTERN MI. EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
THROUGH. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IF
THE LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE
ONTARIO OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SLIGHTLY NORTH WIND COMPONENT IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA WITH GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. HI-RES GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR, HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE 4-7 PM
TIMEFRAME FROM NIAGARA CO ACROSS TOWARDS ROCHESTER. LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AVAILABLE THAT WOULD BE
SUPPORTING OF A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH
THESE STORMS.
BY MID-EVENING, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND/OR HAVE DISSIPATED. LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE KEEPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH 8 PM.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WILL ALSO SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS VALLEY AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER, THERE AREA CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION (20-30%) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO
WILL DROP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND APPROACH THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF ONGOING
CONVECTION AS THE PROBABILITY OF MUCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG OVER
WESTERN NY IS AROUND 50%. INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL NY, BUT WILL BE POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING
WITH THIS UPPER LOW.
THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AFTER THE MORNING HOURS WILL TURN DRIER AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND 500MB HEIGHTS
QUICKLY RISE IN THE WAKE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONABLE AND MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY BEFORE THE
WEATHER WARMS UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS IN ITS WAKE AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SUBDUED TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME INFLUENCE FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FASTER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WHILE OFFSHORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVECTS A
WARMER, MUGGIER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE MORE UNSTABLE SETUP
OVER THE REGION WILL MEAN THE RETURN OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S, AND ADDED HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS
COULD REACH THE LOW 90S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY ARE ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE SITES THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND
SAVE FOR SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AROUND KJHW. THIS SHOULD CLEAR
EFFICIENTLY WITH SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL BRING A
LIGHT CHOP TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. SIMILAR WINDS AND A LIGHT
CHOP WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION FOR THE HOLIDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...BROTHERS
SHORT TERM...BROTHERS
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...FRIES
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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