686
FXUS61 KBUF 271755
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
155 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY, WITH HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRINGING A PERIOD OF
RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS EACH
DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY, DRY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S.
TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL ADVANCE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY. FURTHER
EAST...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL 'LIKELY' CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR LOCALES EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. HIGH TEMPS THERE WILL POTENTIALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH A RANGE OF 60S, EVEN
UPPER 50S WHERE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD A BROAD...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL OPEN UP INTO MORE OF A
BROAD...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...WITH AN EMBEDDED LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...DOUBLE-BARRELLED LOW PRESSURE
INITIALLY DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WILL ALSO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DVCA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE RAIN WORKING ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE
RAIN LASTING BETWEEN 12-18 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. THE RAIN
WILL THEN TEND TO TAPER OFF TO SOME LEFTOVER...MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR MOST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME WEAK DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY MAY THEN LEAD TO A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE/POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS FOCUSED ALONG OUR SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. DURING THIS
LATTER TIME FRAME...JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO ALSO
ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER OUR REGION WILL AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS COPIOUS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM HUDSON BAY...
RESULTING IN A FAIRLY DEEP FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS BEING
SAID...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL EXHIBITS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH/POSITIONING OF A WAVE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ORIGINAL WEAKER TROUGH AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
INTERACTION WITH ONE OR MORE COLD FRONTS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN PCPN POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE KEPT A GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE OUT A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH ALSO NOWHERE NEAR AS COOL AS WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD COMING ON
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINING ACROSS OUR REGION DURING SATURDAY...WITH
THE CORE OF THE TROUGH THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT TO OUR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MULTIPLE PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND THE
RESERVOIR OF COOL AIR ALOFT ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTACT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOCUSING
ON EACH AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN MODEL TRENDS
TOWARD AN INITIALLY DEEPER AND COOLER TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO KNOCK
TEMPS BACK A BIT FROM BOTH CONTINUITY AND BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY THE DEPARTURE OF THE CORE OF THE TROUGH AND THE
INTRODUCTION OF SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL
REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPS AT LEAST CLIMBING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH THIN CIRRUS THICKENING OVER WESTERN TERMINALS. VFR WILL BE
MAINTAINED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
TONIGHT...CIGS LOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. VFR WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF KROC WEDNESDAY, FURTHER EAST A GRADUAL
DETERIORATION TO MVFR-IFR WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT FURTHER DETEORIATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR-
LIFR CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
FRIDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION TODAY.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THURSDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES BY, BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
ERIE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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