260
FXUS61 KBUF 131053
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY.
2) COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TODAY.
SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND OVER LAKE AMERICA
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SHOWERS DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS CAUSE THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD, REACHING THE NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS (SO AROUND SUNRISE). WITHIN THE WESTERN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THE AIR MASS IS SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C/KM,
AND AN EML AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS DUE TO A 35 KNOT JET
AT 700MB IN PLACE OVERHEAD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SKIMS BY TO THE NORTHWEST. MODEST HEATING
AND LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURES WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THOUGH AS THEIR FORECAST DISCUSSION
STATES "...CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE THREAT
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME."
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SUPPORTING A SHARP COLD
FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING, STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM PERSISTS. REGARDLESS, THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH PRE-FRONTAL SYNOPTIC RAIN SHOWERS
EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
PASSING EAST ACROSS WNY WILL SUPPORT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO
LOW END VFR OR LOWER. A BREAK IN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BY MIDDAY TODAY
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF
KJHW. ADDITIONALLY, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND SPAN INTO KROC.
AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR BEFORE DROPPING TO DUE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...WINDY. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS, CHOPPY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING AND LAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. ISOLATED STORMS
COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT WHERE THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID-
WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
DISCUSSION...EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAL
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