925  
FXUS61 KBUF 241552  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
1152 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE  
OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. DOES APPEAR THAT MONDAY NOW WILL FEATURE  
SOME DRY TIME, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE FINGER LAKES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
LAKE SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO  
WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE  
QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED  
WARM FRONT HEAD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME  
THUNDER IS ALREADY LINED UP NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT MORE ALONG  
H85 WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS.  
 
AS THE STRENGTHENING H85 WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH OUT AHEAD OF AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO  
VALLEY THIS EVENING, THE FORCING FROM THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT,  
COMBINED WITH A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH, WILL CAUSE STEADY  
RAIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATE AFTERNOON. STEADIER  
RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS  
IT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES REST OF TODAY WILL BE  
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
TONIGHT, THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF  
LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING. STEADY, MODERATE RAIN WILL TRACK  
NORTH, NEARING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE THIS EVENING  
WITH RAINFALL TRACKING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE  
STEADIER RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW  
40S FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE UPPER 40S FOR THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS.  
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM  
AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH OVER NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY TO OVER AN  
INCH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA INTO CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.  
ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE PHASING OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING  
THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT IN A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL  
INCLUDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE  
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TO A HALF INCH NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA  
BORDER. FORTUNATELY...THIS WILL COME OVER A PERIOD OF TWO DAYS SO  
HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A WARM FRONT THAT WILL NORTH TO LAKE ONTARIO.  
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF RAINFALL NEAR  
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MILD RAINFREE WEATHER  
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.  
 
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ROTATE BACK ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT  
AND TUESDAY...AS A NEWLY FORMED SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS  
PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE DROPPING ANCHOR NEAR LONG ISLAND.  
 
AS THE LOW SLOWLY CHURNS FURTHER OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 
NHCAN GUIDANCE THE ODD MAN OUT THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS BEING  
WAY TOO COLD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW. HAVE  
TAKEN A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS EVENT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY WITH DRY  
WEATHER.  
 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID PART OF THE FORECAST, THE GLOBAL  
MODELS WILL DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT LONG  
WAVE TROUGH FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A  
MODEL CONSENSUS...
WITH LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY THAT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE  
WEST. THIS DEEP TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER  
ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN...WITH DETAILS BECOMING CLEARER AS WE GET  
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LINGERING IFR STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER, INCLUDING AT KJHW WILL  
MIX OUT NEXT COUPLE HOURS, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER MVFR DECK  
AS STEADY MODERATE RAIN MOVES IN BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH  
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH  
THIS EVENING WITH ALL TERMINALS INTO THE RAIN BY EARLY MONDAY  
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR TO LOWER VFR AT  
ALL SITES WITH KJHW SEEING IFR CIGS STARTING THIS EVENING.  
VISIBILITY IN THE RAIN WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS AT ALL BUT KART  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.  
 
A LLJ MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA MAY CAUSE SOME LLWS ISSUES CLOSER TO  
THE NY/PA BORDER, WITH KJHW MOST LIKELY TO HAVE LLWS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG.  
RAIN MAY DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MID MORNING THROUGH LATE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.  
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARD THE AREA WILL CAUSE A  
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN INCREASED WIND SPEEDS OUT  
OF THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKES STARTING TONIGHT. THE INCREASED  
WINDS WILL LIKELY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON  
BOTH LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE AT DIFFERENT TIMES THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JLA/SW  
NEAR TERM...JLA/SW  
SHORT TERM...RSH  
LONG TERM...RSH/THOMAS  
AVIATION...JLA  
MARINE...SW  
 
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