026
FXUS61 KBUF 150700
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TODAY
TRANSITIONING TO LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
2) AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN BITTER WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO 10
BELOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
3) ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN RETURNS FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL TODAY TRANSITIONING TO LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK WILL DEEPEN
WHILE IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. FORCING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS MORNING. ARCTIC AIR BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE LOW WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -18C
ALONG WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITIONS TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A NORTH-NORTHWEST
COMPONENT WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS TODAY.
GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE AND NORTH OF ROUTE 104, AND ALSO ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE AND SOUTHERN BOSTON HILLS. SNOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED TO
THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO OSWEGO COUNTY BY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SOUTH OF BUFFALO. A LAKE EFFECT CONVERGENCE
BAND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN BITTER WIND CHILLS
OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S THIS MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR ZERO TODAY, AND
AS COLD AS 10 BELOW TONIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ACTIVE AND COLD PATTERN RETURNS FRIDAY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEXT WEEK.
MULTIPLE LARGE SCALE TROUGHS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT, AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
EVENING. FORCING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK AND
SNOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AS THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS CLOSER TO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, BUT STILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE WEAK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY WITH THE
FIRST OF TWO PASSING COLD FRONTS WHICH WILL HELP CAUSE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES.
THE SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT OF THE TWO WILL CROSS THE BUF CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE. WITH THIS PASSING COLD FRONT, A BURST OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DROP WITH CAA TO NEAR -15C
BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT POTENTIALLY
BRINGING 850H TEMPERATURES TO AS LOW AS -25C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OFF BOTH LAKES STARTING SUNDAY. THE
LAKE RESPONSE LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRIEF
HEIGHT RISES AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE LAKE RESPONSE OFF OF BOTH LAKES LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
INCREASES. THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT
EVENT OFF OF BOTH LAKES INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK WITH RE-
ENFORCING COLD AIRMASS'S AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO SETUP THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED
LAKE EFFECT EVENT STARTING LATER SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE MAIN AREA OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE EAST TO NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES, BUT
SNOW FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A
FEW IMPORTANT NOTES, THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THE LAKE BANDS DO LOOK SOMEWHAT
MOBILE WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SUPPORTING
TROUGHS TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES DROP
WELL BELOW NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S MOST DAYS, WITH TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WINDCHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW
ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE FOR A WHILE WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES VALUES FOR A DAY OR TWO AT A TIME LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK INTO NORTHEAST NEW YORK BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIOD OF 1/2 MILE IN SNOW
THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NEW
YORK TODAY, ARCTIC AIR SURGING IN BEHIND IT WILL DEVELOP BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES
OF BOTH EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CONTINUE A LENGTHY PERIOD
OF SNOW WITH IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO MVFR TOWARDS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.
NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY, REMAINING ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE LAKES AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER
THROUGH THIS TIME AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-
002-010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ003>006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-
085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ013-014-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
DISCUSSION...SW/TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
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