074  
FXUS61 KBUF 090248  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
948 PM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AND WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY  
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WEAK LOW PRESSURE  
PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN SPREAD A MIX OF RAIN AND  
WET SNOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE  
MAJORITY OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF MID TO LATE EVENING...SOME VERY SPOTTY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT  
PRECIP STILL PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO AND PORTIONS OF THE  
FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE PROCESSES  
ALSO CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FILL IN ANY GAPS IN THE CLOUD COVER  
OVER AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LATER TREND SHOULD CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY AGAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE LINGERING  
SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SHIFTS WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS  
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND INVERSION  
HEIGHTS SLOWLY DROP.  
 
MEANWHILE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...SKIES SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO AT  
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THAT  
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SOUTH OF  
LAKE ONTARIO...AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY.  
 
QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING  
OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. SOME LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUD  
COVER MAY LINGER SOUTHWEST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY, BUT  
OTHERWISE EXPECT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE COMPARED TO THE  
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 30S...WITH DANSVILLE AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE  
SHORELINE POTENTIALLY REACHING OR BREAKING 40F.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE  
MICHIGAN FRIDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST TO THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE  
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN WITH TIME, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING  
COMPLETELY LATER SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO A MEAN RIDGE POSITION.  
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN  
NY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY, BUT ANY LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA WITH DRY WEATHER  
PREVAILING. OTHERWISE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE  
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN  
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING  
SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER.  
 
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER PACIFIC ORIGIN TROUGH, WHICH  
WILL REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO  
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EVOLVING INTO A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY  
SUNDAY. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL  
MOVE INTO WESTERN NY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL NY SUNDAY EVENING  
BEFORE RE-DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY  
MORNING.  
 
A PERIOD OF ORGANIZED ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO  
WESTERN NY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY  
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DPVA AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW, DIFFLUENT  
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW, AND STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND  
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS  
SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF  
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE  
NEW ENGLAND COAST TAKES OVER. WEAK NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND  
MODESTLY COLDER AIR MAY SUPPORT SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE  
PRECIPITATION LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PTYPE GIVEN THE MARGINAL  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THERMAL PROFILES. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS  
SUGGEST THE SURFACE WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOW  
ELEVATION SITES THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENT, AND NEAR FREEZING FOR  
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THE BOURGOUIN PRECIPITATION TYPE METHOD  
FROM GFS BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS AND NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST MAINLY  
SNOW AT THE ONSET FOR ALL OF THE AREA, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX BECOMING  
MORE LIKELY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY. MAINLY SNOW IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE  
EVENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER  
EASTWARD. NONE OF THE FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY TYPE OF  
WINTRY MIX, WITH THIS EVENT BEING EITHER RAIN OR WET SNOW BASED ON  
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET OR SO OF THE  
COLUMN.  
 
GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMAL STRUCTURE, EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE  
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL  
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, AND A MUCH LOWER CHANCE AT  
LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC ACCUMULATIONS  
BUT IN GENERAL THIS STILL APPEARS TO BE A MINOR, LOW IMPACT EVENT  
FOR MOST AREAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A MATURING CYCLONE (VERTICALLY STACKED) WILL EVER SO SLOWLY TREK  
EAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. DUE TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT EAST, HAVE  
AGAIN DELAYED AND LOWERED NBM POPS WITH DRY WEATHER NOW ANTICIPATED  
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...IT WILL ALL  
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM FRONT (OCCLUSION),  
POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY WITH A RAIN OR WET SNOW MIX AT ONSET. UNSETTLED  
WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THIS WHOLE  
COMPLEX LUMBERS ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.  
STILL NO SIGN OF ANY REAL COLD ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING EAST AND  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH WINTER LOCKED ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES (CANADA). THAT SAID, IT MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH  
FOR A WINTRY END TO NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND  
STRENGTH OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE INFLUENCES WILL  
LEAD TO A CONTINUED RETURN OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOWER-END  
VFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING LIGHT  
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES GRADUALLY SHIFTING  
WESTWARD AND WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY...INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SHOULD HELP TO BREAK UP  
ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THERE.  
 
DURING FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...A MIX OF WIDESPREAD MVFR TO VFR  
CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND IMPROVE  
TO VFR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND WET SNOW LIKELY.  
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EARLY, IMPROVING  
TO MAINLY VFR.  
TUESDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL PUSH INTO QUEBEC  
OVER NIGHT...WITH MODEST NORTHERLIES TO NORTHEASTERLIES EXPECTED  
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.  
 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND A  
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  
THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS  
ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JJR/PP  
NEAR TERM...JJR/PP  
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK  
LONG TERM...AR  
AVIATION...JJR/PP  
MARINE...JJR/PP  
 
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