735  
FXUS61 KBUF 131430  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
1030 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES  
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR  
RAIN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN COOLER WEATHER  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION TODAY WITH ONLY  
PASSING CIRRUS DEPARTING THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA AS OF  
1030 AM. MORE CIRRUS IS POISED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, BUT  
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS AND DEEP MOISTURE LIMITED TO  
PENNSYLVANIA, AN UTTER CHASM OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER  
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL BE OUR  
PREDOMINANT REGIME FOR TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT  
SUNSHINE AND STILL LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THE NET RESULT WILL BE  
YET ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO  
THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS  
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
WILL DEEPEN OVER OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AS THESE TWO AIRMASSES DRAW CLOSER A STRONG  
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC  
JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD, THE  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NY SATURDAY AND  
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.  
BY SUNDAY, THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL QUICKLY DEPART AND LOW  
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL TRANSFER TO  
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE  
REGION WHILE MOISTURE SPILLS INTO NEW YORK STATE. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID-WEST  
AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW  
WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE  
CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH ITS ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE, EXPECT  
THE CHANCES AND LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE  
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.  
 
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION AND ENTERS THE NORTHEAST, CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE  
DEPARTING SYSTEM, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENGULF MUCH OF  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD  
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID, RESIDUAL INSTABILITY OVER THE  
REGION ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE MAY BE CONDUCIVE  
TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RANGE IN THE  
70S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF 80 DEGREE READINGS ALONG THE  
LAKE PLAINS ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WITH NO CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH  
TONIGHT. SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN RIVER VALLEY  
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL LIGHT  
WINDS AND WAVES ON THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS  
TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING NORTHEAST  
FLOW, WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...FRIES/TMA  
NEAR TERM...FRIES/TMA  
SHORT TERM...HSK  
LONG TERM...EAJ/HSK  
AVIATION...TMA  
MARINE...TMA  
 
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