087
FXUS61 KBUF 100609
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
209 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
2) WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL
SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY. A FEW BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
STARTING WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST, AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS AN 850MB THERMAL
GRADIENT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SUPPORTED BY A 150 KNOT
250 MB JET, A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR LAKE HURON.
AS THIS REGION MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
INTO WESTERN NY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MEET WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK BRINGING COOLER, DRY WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL
SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND STRENGTH AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BESIDES
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING, THE REGION WILL BE
DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
STAYING CONFINED WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KBUF. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN AT KART BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. THE TERMINALS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN AS MVFR BEFORE IMPROVING
TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
WEST WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH WEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND WEST WINDS 10-15KTS GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED.
MARINE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ON LAKE ERIE AND THE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BY
8AM. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WINDS
AND WAVES WILL WEAKEN. LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THE LAKES THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER SMALL CRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ005-006.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ020-040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK
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