721
FXUS61 KBUF 300231
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1031 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND FREEZING RAIN TO
ITS NORTH. SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WITH SOME ICING POSSIBLE EVEN IN WESTERN NEW YORK NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A WEALTH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NY/PA BORDER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE STATE LINE TO THE 30S
ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE PLAINS, AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. PER THE 00Z KBUF BALLOON, A WARM NOSE
EXTENDS TO +10C RIGHT OFF THE DECK. PTYPE IS DEPENDENT ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURE LATE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE FREEZING AND FREEZING RAIN FOR LOCATIONS BELOW FREEZING.
WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE,
LIVINGSTON, AND ONTARIO COUNTIES AS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY WHERE COLD AIR
DRAINING DOWN THE VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN A QUARTER INCH
OF ICE, AND WITH STEADY LIGHT RAIN ICE IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE
EFFECTIVELY THROUGH TONIGHT, WHEN ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON
THIS, AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JEFFERSON
COUNTY FOR STORM TOTALS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF ICE
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY. IT'S A BIT WARMER ACROSS
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
ICE TONIGHT, BUT LESS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE ON
VEGETATION, WITH LESS (BUT SOME) ICING ON ROADWAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ICE WILL REMAIN A RISK SUNDAY
MORNING, THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS ACROSS WESTERN
NY, AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUFFALO TO
SYRACUSE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL BE THIS EVENING WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW ICY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS, ABOUT A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED MOSTLY ON VEGETATION.
ON SUNDAY THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO
LOWER MICHIGAN, AND IN THE PROCESS WILL ENCOURAGE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AGAIN AS A
WARM FRONT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THIS
HAPPENS, BUT THIS WILL BE ALL RAIN EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR PART OF THE DAY.
A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SPC CLIPS FAR WESTERN
NY WITH A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK FOR SUNDAY, THIS RISK IS FOR THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL ENGULF THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ELIMINATE THE FURTHER RISK FOR
FREEZING RAIN UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER AREA. BY MONDAY
MORNING AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. AN INITIAL
INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL DIMINISH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING, BUT LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES VIA A STRONG
40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. OVERALL TIMING IS
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE, BUT WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES THERE
COULD BE A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
IF AN ORGANIZED LINE DEVELOPS. THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS.
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK BY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ACTIVE CONVECTION INTO THOSE AREAS. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHOWERS, BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A BASIN AVERAGE QUARTER TO HALF INCH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH PERHAPS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRINGING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
LATEST MMEFS OF THE NAEFS AND THE GEFS STILL DEPICTS SEVERAL CREEKS
AND RIVERS ACROSS OUR REGION RISING TO NEAR BANKFULL MONDAY, BUT
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FLOOD. HIGH FLOWS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SLOW
RESPONDING CREEKS AND RIVERS WILL LINGER INTO MIDWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVECTING IN MUCH DRIER
AIR AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA TUMBLING DOWN POSSIBLY TO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS. THIS DRIER AIR OVERHEAD WILL QUICKLY END ANY
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH ANY MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OF JUST A FEW TENTHS.
AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEARS DOWN UPON OUR REGION
TUESDAY, EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
DESPITE THE SUN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF APRIL WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 30S. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE DAY
WILL LOWER DEWPOINTS SUCH THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET TO
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE, IF NOT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. THOUGH DRY,
RECENT RAINS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY, WHILE WELL OFF
TO THE WEST A STRONG, BUT SLOWLY WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ATTENDANT STRONG WARM
FRONT EXTENDING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO PUSH INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PUSH OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A POTENT 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. FORTUNATELY
THIS STRONG LLJ IS LOCATED IN THE MORE STABLE AIR, HOWEVER IT WILL
STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLTOPS
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY, THIS SAME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK
NORTHEAST PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO QUEBEC BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE SENDING ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS
GOING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS NORTHEAST, EXPECT STEADIER SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF SOMETIME LATER THURSDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.
SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHCENTRAL NY. AT THIS POINT, APPEARS AS IF THIS MAY BRING A DRY
FINISH TO THE WORK WEEK. OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE
LINGERING TO OUR SOUTH TO START THE WEEKEND, WHILE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WAVE RIDING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO POTENTIALLY SHIFT IT BACK NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA AS IT APPROACHES, BRINGING THE RETURN OF SHOWER
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.
STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
HIGHS THE REST OF THE TIME.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THERE WILL BE IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR AVIATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY THROUGH SUNDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS EVENING. A LARGE GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE 60S AND
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW) TO THE UPPER 20S AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY (KART.) PTYPE WILL
DEPEND ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS KIAG, KROC, AND KART BY 12Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT KJHW AND KBUF THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF KART AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR OR BELOW NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND VFR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY (KJHW/KOLE.) AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS WESTERN NY. IFR OR BELOW WILL CONTINUE AT
KART SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY
SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SHOWERS APPROACHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
BECOMING WINDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING.
CONTINUED WINDY.
MARINE
A BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON SUNDAY AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK PUSHES BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ001>006-
011.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HSK/JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR
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