655
FXUS61 KBUF 221059
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
659 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2023
SYNOPSIS
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL GRACE THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS
ANOTHER FAIR DRY WEATHER DAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL RIDE
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, HOWEVER JUST HOW CLOSE THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WILL DETERMINE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK RETURNING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PRIMARILY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS OF SOME
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND
THE OSWEGO RIVER VALLEY. VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF SUNRISE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COMFORTABLE WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM DEEPENING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. TODAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE ONTO
NORTH CAROLINA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK
WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER PUSHING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS FROM THE INCOMING TROPICAL SYSTEM
AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EXTENDED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THEN AS THE
TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST RAIN
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW YORK LATE SATURDAY. OVERALL THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THICKENING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY AS THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF
THIS PERIOD...AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED BY WHAT WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING SUB TROPICAL LOW
WILL BE CHURNING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHILE A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT COME FROM THE
FORECAST POSITIONS OF THESE FEATURES...BUT FROM THE RESULTING SHARP
CUTOFF BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING CIRCULATED BACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NOTABLY DRIER AIR BEING FUNNELED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS BATTLE WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE STEADILY WEAKENING SFC LOW
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE DISSOLVING
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.
THE RESULT OF THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FOR LOWERING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST PACKAGES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A TENTH OR TWO
OF AN INCH FOR THESE MENTIONED AREAS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR DRY
WEATHER TO PERSIST WILL BE ACROSS THE IAG FRONTIER/AREAS NEAR LAKE
ERIE...AND SITES NORTH OF THE TUG HILL.
WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE THE UPPER HAND IN CONTROLLING THE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A HIGH-OVER-LOW REX BLOCK IS BEING ADVERTISED
TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW PORTION OF THIS BLOCK OVER THE
MID WEST/UPPER OHIO VALLEY THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER AND A RISK OF SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE OSWEGO RIVER
VALLEY THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR SUPPORTING ALL TAF
SITES TO BE UNDER VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, EXCEPT FOR KART WHERE THERE
IS MVFR VISIBILITIES. HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTING THESE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING AND EXTENDING BACK WEST TODAY. AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND ALL TAF
SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR.
AN INCOMING TROPICAL STORM RIDING NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT AND INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE EXTENDING BACK WEST TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERALL THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIR DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS AND A LIGHT CHOP. HOWEVER THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WHERE AN ELEVATE EASTERLY WIND WILL
SUPPORT SOME CHOPPIER CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A COASTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE COAST LINE OF NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO BY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
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