926
FXUS61 KBUF 051039
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
639 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2022
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, PRODUCING AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE KEY FEATURE TO OUR FORECAST IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO AT DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS WHICH HAD THIS AREA CLIPPING THE
SOUTHERN TIER HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED, RESULTING IN LOWER QPF AND
LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING, BEFORE REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. IN A GENERAL
SENSE, THE PASSING TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME ADDED
SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT 250MB JET. THIS
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NY THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY DUE TO A MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING WHICH WILL ALLOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY UNEVEN (WHICH IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE
CASE WITH CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SUMMER RAIN). A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS OF OVER 0.50", WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE VERY
LITTLE.
FOLLOWING THIS FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DEVELOPING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
OTHER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THAT SAID, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT, AND WITH A MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
OVERALL RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AND
QUIET WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN OVER THE LAKES. THE ONLY
HICCUP IN THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SHORTWAVE TO RIDE ALONG THE H850-700MB THERMAL BOUNDARY WHICH HANGS
UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE (IF
REAL) IS ADVERTISED AT THE MONUMENT TO LARGELY AVOID OUR AREA
TRACKING NEAR THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH...IT MIGHT
STILL INITIATE A SHOWER OR STORM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON AS
IT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE THINKING IS IT WILL 'LIKELY' BE FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED (SOUTH) TO 'NOT' BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BADLY NEEDED
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT
MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS
FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED AS IT PASSES ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP INTACT OUR CURRENT DRY TREND OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIPPING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER GORGEOUS
WEEKEND. AFTER THAT...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST (THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO REMAIN
INTACT AREAWIDE). THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN DAILY HIGHS SETTLING BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS THEN BOUNCING
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
WARMER AIR SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH
COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING AND INTO
CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH DUE TO LOWER CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, FOCUSING ON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
COOLER AIR AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WITH MAINTAIN LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCAL/INLAND MVFR WITH CHC -SHRA/TSRA.
SATURDAY...VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE
WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LEZ040-041.
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
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