209
FXUS61 KBUF 220336
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH BY
TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A WELCOMED WARM UP ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING AN
END TO THE LIGHT FLUFFY LAKE SNOWS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE
NOTICEABLE DAY TO DAY WARMING WILL PEAK WITH MANY AREAS REACHING
CLOSE TO...IF NOT ABOVE...40 FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A LARGE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SETTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AND A BACKING OF THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SO
THAT THE RECENT LAKE SNOWS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN WHILE GRADUALLY
PUSHING NORTHWARDS. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER AN
INCH FOR SITES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMS
ELSEWHERE.
=COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, SATURDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY
NICE DAY WEATHERWISE. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S,
AND OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING MORNING SNOW SHOWERS IN JEFFERSON
COUNTY IT WILL FINALLY BE SNOW-FREE ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE A
BREEZY DAY, WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY EARLIER SATURDAY WILL PIVOT ACROSS
QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT, SLIDING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A HEAD OF THE FEATURE WINDS WILL SUBTLY
VEER AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUPPORTING A RENEWED APPEARANCE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES. WHILE ICE COVER AND
LESS FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY OFF OF LAKE
ERIE TO A FEW NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER WITH THE OPEN LAKE AND
BETTER MOISTURE TO TAP INTO, ACTIVITY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED. SNOW AMOUNTS EAST OF THE LAKE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3
TO 5 INCHES WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF THE LAKE EFFECT
BAND BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
LAKE SNOWS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LATE FEBRUARY
DIURNAL INFLUENCES COME INTO PLAY AND A FLAT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY. WITH THIS LOW, A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY. AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 40S MONDAY AND THEREFORE RESULT IN SNOW TO SWITCH OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR PLAIN RAIN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL EXPECT RAIN TO SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH MIDWEEK BROAD/FLAT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH A VERITABLE PARADE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND CROSSING OUR REGION IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL PROVIDE US WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME LIGHT TO MODEST
PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING SHOTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
THAT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SPITE
OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THESE WILL
ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TO RANGE BETWEEN THE
UPPER 30S AND MID 40S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. THE CORRESPONDING WARMER TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SHOULD ALLOW ANY PRECIP FROM THESE SYSTEMS TO MIX WITH AND/OR
LARGELY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN IN MANY AREAS EACH DAY, THEN BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST PLAIN SNOW AT NIGHT.
LATE IN THE PERIOD THE LAST OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES LOOKS TO AT
LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SURFACE LOW CROSSING OUR REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE
RESULTING SURFACE CYCLONE AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING
WILL THEN CIRCULATE ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO
BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WHILE MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT...VFR WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL ENCOURAGE MVFR CIGS
IN THE MORNING TO IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD TAPER OFF
AS FLURRIES IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES WITH LOCALIZED
IFR, MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MAINLY VFR/MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES IN THE
MORNING, IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR LATE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE FOR THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL
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