178  
FXUS61 KBUF 271157  
AFDBUF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
657 AM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DEEPENING LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO QUEBEC  
TODAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS  
MORNING BEFORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH FRIDAY DOWNWIND OF BOTH WIDE OPEN LAKES. MULTIPLE FEET  
OF SNOW WILL OCCUR EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE  
SNOWFALL WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS OF UP TO 55 MPH THROUGH  
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR  
AREAS RECEIVING PARALYZING LAKE SNOWS. TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION  
WILL BECOME DIFFICULT...AND EVEN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE PENDING YOUR  
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE SNOWS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF LAKE ERIE  
AND LAKE ONTARIO...  
 
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES AS OUTLINED IN THE AT THE END OF  
THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.  
 
THOUGH SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER WESTERN NY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT THUS  
FAR WITH AN INCH OR TWO AROUND BUFFALO THROUGH 6 AM, LAKE ENHANCED  
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUES TO  
DEVELOP. BASED ON TRENDS IN STRONGER RADAR ECHOES, DOES APPEAR MAIN  
FOCUS FROM THIS MAY PERSIST JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO IN THE SOUTHTOWNS  
AND INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. OVERALL EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF  
2-3 INCHES AROUND METRO BUFFALO TODAY, HEAVIEST TOWARD SOUTHTOWNS.  
 
NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS IS SUPPORTING  
DEEPENING SFC LOW CURRENTLY EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. 3HR PRESSURE  
FALLS UP TO 6 MB SUPPORT THE LOW LIFTING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY THE  
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS ALREADY CHANGED TO MODERATE SNOW  
FROM THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FINGER LAKES ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN  
NY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO SNOW EAST OF LAKE  
ONTARIO AND IS BEGINNING TO COME DOWN AT A HEAVY CLIP. WEST WINDS  
OVER WESTERN NY ARE JUST STARTING TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH GUSTS  
AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. DEFORMATION MODERATE SNOW  
OVER WESTERN NY WILL ONLY BECOME ENHANCED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS  
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS WITH DELTA T/S NEAR 20C AND LAKE INDUCED  
INVERSIONS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, SNOWFALL  
RATES THUS FAR HAVE BEEN MORE IN THE 0.5 INCH/HOUR RANGE, BUT AS THE  
LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASES, THESE SNOWFALL RATES WILL START REACHING  
MORE AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NY INTO MID  
MORNING. ALL THE WHILE, WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS DEEP 50+ KT LOW-  
LEVEL JET FROM 1-7KFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPENING  
CYCLONE. EXPECT WINDS/GUSTS TO REACH 25-30MPH/45 MPH BY MID MORNING  
AND INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DEEPENING COLD AIR  
ADVECTION/MIXING AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.  
 
EXEPCT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO BE IN FULL FORCE MID TO LATE MORNING  
OFF LAKE ERIE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST SOUTH AND  
EAST OF METRO BUFFALO. TREND THAT SHOWED UP IN GUIDANCE LATER ON  
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH WINDS MORE 250-260 DIRECTION  
INSTEAD OF 270. THUS, HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL MAKE INTO THE  
SOUTHTOWNS OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE DAY, EVEN AFTER WIDESPREAD SNOW  
BACKS OFF MIDDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE  
WIDESPREAD AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE OVER MUCH OF  
WESTERN NY. SNOW WILL BECOME MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME REST OF  
THE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM  
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TO THE BOSTON HILLS OF SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND  
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING AND CATTERAUGUS COUNTY. STRONGER  
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH SNOW SHOWERS, WITH LIGHTER ACCUMS,  
FARTHER INLAND, REACHING MUCH OF ALLEGANY AND LIVINGSTON COUNTY.  
 
TURNING ATTENTION TO LAKE ONTARIO, SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME  
HEAVIER AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE  
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. APPEARS LARGER SCALE LIFT/SYNOPTIC  
FORCING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WITH  
DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. FROM THE SYNOPTIC  
SNOW ALONE, MANY AREAS WILL SEE OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY. LAKE  
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE VERY STRONG ON THE TUG HILL REGION AS THE DAY  
PROGRESSES WITH THE 250 WIND DIRECTION OFF LAKE ONTARIO FAVORING  
STRONG FOCUSED CONVERGENCE AND LIFT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE  
TUG HILL. MODERATE SNOW RATES THERE AND JUST TO THE NORTH LATE THIS  
MORNING WILL BECOME VERY HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR  
RATES AND TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW OVER A FOOT. AS OCCURS ON LAKE ERIE  
THIS MORNING, WE WILL ALSO SEE VERY STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TAKE AIM ON THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. LOW-  
LEVEL JET IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND EXPECT MANY AREAS EAST OF LAKE  
ONTARIO TO SEE WIND GUSTS REACHING TO 45-55 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON,  
WITH SOME AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS REACH AS  
HIGH AS 60 MPH, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE  
LAKESHORE IN OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.  
 
ONCE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELPS THIS AFTERNOON OFF BOTH  
LAKES, THERE IS LITTLE IN THE GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST INTENSITY WILL  
DIMINISH AT ALL TONIGHT. IN FACT, AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS, INTENSITY  
AND CERTAINLY THE FLUFFINESS OF THE SNOW WILL INCREASE. AS THAT  
OCCURS, THE VERY STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH CONTINUTING IN  
THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS WILL JUST MORE EFFICIENTLY BLOW AND DRIFT THE  
SNOW IN THE AIR AND THE LOOSE SNOW ON THE GROUND. ADDITIONAL SNOW  
ACCUMS FOR TONIGHT WILL REACH UP TOWARD A FOOT AND A HALF IN THE TUG  
HILL REGION, TOWARD 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE  
ERIE AND WELL UNDER 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE.  
 
HOWEVER, IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THE WINDS FROM DAYBREAK  
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF  
PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS, AND A MAJOR  
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE HAZARD WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS. EVEN WHERE SNOW  
AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE LOWER IN COMPARISON TO  
THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS, THE STRONG WINDS, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW  
WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER AND POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS AND BLIZZARD  
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...  
 
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL  
STALL AND THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,  
REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A  
CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR  
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A LONG LASTING  
LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT EAST OF THE LAKES.  
 
OFF LAKE ERIE...  
 
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW THAT BEGAN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST  
OF THIS PERIOD. OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE SNOW TOTALS  
INLAND FROM THE LAKE. A MOSTLY WEST WIND WILL KEEP THE BAND OF LAKE  
SNOW SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA, WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO JUST  
SOUTH OF DUE WEST POSSIBLY BRINGING THE BAND TO PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHTOWNS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF GENESEE COUNTY EARLY ON FRIDAY.  
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF  
LAKE ERIE FOR TONIGHT SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR  
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AS IT  
APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPLY ADDITIONAL  
INSTABILITY. AS THIS OCCURS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, INCREASED SNOWFALL  
RATES ARE EXPECTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE.  
 
AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, EQUILIBRIUM  
HEIGHTS OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL INCREASE, WITH JHW AND AREAS CLOSER TO  
THE LAKE NEARING 7.5K FT FOR EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS, AND LAKE INDUCED  
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS APPROACHING 10K FT.  
 
THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DECREASE QUICKLY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY,  
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER.  
 
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GO, STORM TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 1-2  
FEET ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE ALONG THE  
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE, BOSTON HILLS, WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY, AND EXTENDING  
INTO FAR NORTHWEST ALLEGANY COUNTY. SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF  
OVER 2 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER  
HOUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH  
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE  
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS TRAVEL  
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...  
 
ON FRIDAY, THE LAKE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TUG HILL AND  
SURROUNDING AREAS WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUING. THE NORTHERN  
PORTION OF THE TUG HILL ON FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKELY AS EARLIER  
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED A BIT NORTH WITH THE BAND AND THAT SCENARIO  
STILL SEEMS TO BE FAVORED. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WINDS WILL VEER  
FROM JUST SOUTH OF WEST TO WEST AND THEN JUST NORTH OF WEST. AS THE  
WINDS VEER THROUGH THE DAY, THE BAND WILL SINK SOUTH AND CENTER OVER  
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TUG HILL. AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH IT IS  
EXPECTED TO BROADEN SOME, WITH SOME LOWERING OF SNOWFALL RATES, BUT  
INCREASED COVERAGE AREA FOR THE BAND ITSELF.  
 
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER MORE NORTHWEST  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, SPREADING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO MUCH OF  
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO  
DECREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THE FOOTPRINT OF THE SNOW WILL  
SPREAD OUT OVER A MUCH WIDER AREA. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY.  
 
AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO, STORM TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 2-3 FEET ON  
THE TUG HILL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 4 FEET POSSIBLE IF THE  
BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW STALLS IN ONE LOCATION LONG ENOUGH. 6-10  
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE FROM  
WAYNE TO WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY, WITH 3-6 INCHES FOR MONROE AND  
ORLEANS COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ROCHESTER AREA. MUCH OF THIS WILL  
FALL LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY. SNOWFALL RATES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH IN THIS PHASE OF  
THE EVENT.  
 
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS  
WINDS FREQUENTLY GUST TO 35 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF  
SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS  
WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS, GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND WINDCHILLS  
IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL AND  
MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC  
SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST  
OVERNIGHT, WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING STEADILY. LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH BOUNDARY  
LAYER FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME. THE BEST COVERAGE  
OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE EVENING, WITH LESSENING COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY MORNING WILL END AS  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,  
FURTHER LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING THE COLUMN.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE  
OF THE DEPARTING DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE STEADILY INTO THE NORTH  
ATLANTIC. RISING HEIGHTS AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR  
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND QUICKLY ABOVE NORMAL FOLLOWING OUR 3-4  
DAY PERIOD OF ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER AND COLD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY  
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE  
SOME SNOW BRIEFLY ON THE LEADING EDGE, BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION  
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM THE  
OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY  
WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY IN THE 50S. SNOWMELT COMBINED  
WITH RAIN MAY BRING AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK DURING THAT TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN  
COUNTIES...AS CIGS AS LOW AS 1000 FT ARE NOW BEING ACCOMPANIED  
BY STEADY SNOW THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VSBYS. EAST OF LAKE  
ONTARIO...CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING TO IFR AS WET SNOW INCREASES.  
 
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL KEEP IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE  
DURING THE MORNING. AS COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE REGION ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF A DEEPENING STORM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...THE  
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY FOCUSED LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES. IN THESE AREAS...THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW  
WILL MAINTAIN LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR SITES SUCH AS KJHW AND  
KART THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE CONTRIBUTOR TO THE DANGEROUSLY LOW  
VISIBILITIES WILL BE WINDS THAT WILL INTENSIFY TO 40-50 KTS. THE  
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES AFTER ABOUT  
15Z.  
 
THE HIGH WINDS AND SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY HAVE A VERY DETRIMENTAL  
IMPACT TO GROUND OPERATIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES...NOT TO  
MENTION IMPACTS TO AIR TRAFFIC.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY...VLIFR/LIFR IN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES...  
WITH A MIX OF IFR TO LOW VFR AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS  
ELSEWHERE.  
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE  
LAKES...AND NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.  
SUNDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF  
THE LAKES ENDING.  
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO  
TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL SUPPORT GALES ON LAKE ERIE INTO TONIGHT  
WITH STORMS ON LAKE ONTARIO AS FREQUENT GUSTS REACH 50+ KNOTS MUCH  
OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ALL MARINE HEADLINES ARE OUTLINED BELOW.  
WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY, BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A PERIOD OF STRONG WEST WINDS IN WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL  
BRING A ROUND OF LAKESHORE FLOODING TO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO EASTERN LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF  
OF TONIGHT.  
 
FOR LAKE ERIE, WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT MORE  
WESTERLY THAN IDEAL FOR A MAXIMUM SEICHE...ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS  
THIS WINTER LAKE LEVELS HAVE PREVIOUSLY MANAGED TO REACH WARNING  
CRITERIA DURING LESSER WIND EVENTS THAN THIS UPCOMING ONE...WITH  
THE HIGHER LAKE LEVELS UNDOUBTABLY HAVING AN INFLUENCE. GIVEN  
THAT THE FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT...WE CAN  
STILL FORESEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES BECOMING LIKELY ALONG AT  
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE SHORELINE...PARTICULARLY IN BAYS AND  
INLETS AND OTHER LOW LYING SHORELINE AREAS. FOR THIS REASON... THE  
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES.  
 
FOR LAKE ONTARIO, THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS, STRONG  
ONSHORE WESTERLY WINDS, AND HIGH WAVES WILL PRODUCE SOME  
LAKESHORE FLOODING IN BAYS AND INLETS AT THE EAST END OF THE  
LAKE ALONG WITH SOME MINOR SHORE EROSION.  
 

 
   
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NY...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ010-019-  
085.  
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.  
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EST  
FRIDAY FOR NYZ006-007.  
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006>008.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ003>005-  
013-014.  
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ004-005.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST  
FRIDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010-011.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-  
002-010-011.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-  
041.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR  
LEZ020.  
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS  
EVENING FOR LEZ020.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR  
LOZ030.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR  
LOZ042>044.  
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.  
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042>045-  
062>065.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JLA/JJR/RSH  
NEAR TERM...JLA/JJR  
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/SW  
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK  
AVIATION...RSH  
MARINE...JLA/JJR  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JJR  
 
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