925
FXUS61 KBUF 241552
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1152 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2021
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE
OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. DOES APPEAR THAT MONDAY NOW WILL FEATURE
SOME DRY TIME, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE FINGER LAKES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LAKE SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO
WILL DIMINISH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT HEAD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME
THUNDER IS ALREADY LINED UP NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT MORE ALONG
H85 WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS.
AS THE STRENGTHENING H85 WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTH OUT AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING, THE FORCING FROM THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT,
COMBINED WITH A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH, WILL CAUSE STEADY
RAIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATE AFTERNOON. STEADIER
RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS
IT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES REST OF TODAY WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TONIGHT, THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING. STEADY, MODERATE RAIN WILL TRACK
NORTH, NEARING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH RAINFALL TRACKING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE
STEADIER RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW
40S FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE UPPER 40S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH OVER NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY TO OVER AN
INCH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA INTO CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE PHASING OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT IN A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
INCLUDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TO A HALF INCH NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER. FORTUNATELY...THIS WILL COME OVER A PERIOD OF TWO DAYS SO
HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A WARM FRONT THAT WILL NORTH TO LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF RAINFALL NEAR
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF MILD RAINFREE WEATHER
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ROTATE BACK ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...AS A NEWLY FORMED SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE DROPPING ANCHOR NEAR LONG ISLAND.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY CHURNS FURTHER OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
NHCAN GUIDANCE THE ODD MAN OUT THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS BEING
WAY TOO COLD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW. HAVE
TAKEN A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS EVENT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID PART OF THE FORECAST, THE GLOBAL
MODELS WILL DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A
MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THAT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
WEST. THIS DEEP TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN...WITH DETAILS BECOMING CLEARER AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LINGERING IFR STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER, INCLUDING AT KJHW WILL
MIX OUT NEXT COUPLE HOURS, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER MVFR DECK
AS STEADY MODERATE RAIN MOVES IN BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH ALL TERMINALS INTO THE RAIN BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR TO LOWER VFR AT
ALL SITES WITH KJHW SEEING IFR CIGS STARTING THIS EVENING.
VISIBILITY IN THE RAIN WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS AT ALL BUT KART
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
A LLJ MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA MAY CAUSE SOME LLWS ISSUES CLOSER TO
THE NY/PA BORDER, WITH KJHW MOST LIKELY TO HAVE LLWS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN RAIN, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN MAY DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARD THE AREA WILL CAUSE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN INCREASED WIND SPEEDS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKES STARTING TONIGHT. THE INCREASED
WINDS WILL LIKELY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON
BOTH LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE AT DIFFERENT TIMES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JLA/SW
NEAR TERM...JLA/SW
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/THOMAS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SW
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