576
FXUS61 KBUF 120929
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
529 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY, WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY, WHERE ITS CENTER WILL STRENGTHEN TO AN
IMPRESSIVE 600DAM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
IN RESPONSE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY,
HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS TRENDING EVEN A BIT
WARMER WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, RISING INTO THE THE 22C-24C RANGE
(99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID JULY), WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN NY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HUMIDITY LEVELS, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS, GENESEE VALLEY, AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
A FAIRLY STOUT 30-40 KNOT LL JET WILL BE LOCATED JUST 1-2 KFT OFF
THE DECK TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING A GOOD PORTION OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. WHEN COMBINED WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, EXPECT TO SEE FREQUENT WSW TO SW'ERLY
GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME NATURAL RELIEF TO THE HEAT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FORTUNATELY THIS BLAST OF DANGEROUS HEAT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
A MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA, WITH A SERIES OF ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONTS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY, EACH PROGRESSIVELY KNOCKING
DOWN THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND ESPECIALLY SUPPRESSING THE
UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS EVEN DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION OWED
TO HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN MUCH LESS IN
THE WAY OF SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG FORMATION AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE DOES
SHOW SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG TRYING TO FORM IN THE DEEPEST
VALLEYS. DEW POINTS WILL RISE A BIT TONIGHT, WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SOME VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BECOME NE'ERLY
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BEFORE
VEERING MORE S/SE'ERLY TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVES GENERALLY ONE FOOT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
SW'ERLY BREEZES WITH THEN FRESHEN BY TUESDAY, WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR
SCA TO SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED ON LAKE ONTARIO.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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