032
FXUS61 KBUF 181758
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
158 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW
LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN/SNOW LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
EMBEDDED FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ENCOUNTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR, BUT STILL COULD
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES STARTING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A MORE GENERAL LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT
EMBEDDED WAVE WILL TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND,
ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING BKN-OVC040
KIAG AND KBUF THROUGH ABOUT 21Z, OTHERWISE MAINLY BKN-OVC150-250.
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TONIGHT TO LOW-END VFR/MVFR AS A WARM
FRONT SPREADS LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL STAY FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND INCREASE A BIT, POSSIBLY TOUCHING
20 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS SHOULD
BACK OFF THURSDAY, AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND LOWERING TO GENERALLY 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WINDS INCREASING BEHIND IT, WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
LIKELY BEING REQUIRED ON LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HSK/JJR/TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
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