763
FXUS61 KOKX 072330
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
630 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8PM FOR THE
TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TWIN FORKS, WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT.
2) EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
3) TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
4) CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW MID-WEEK AND TO START THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AS A VORT MAX CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AS
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE HAS COMBINED TO PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOWFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY. AND WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING UP TO NEAR 30 TO 1, ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGH
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN FORKS
CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING. BY THIS TIME GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE BULK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL LIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 100 PM EST SUNDAY, AND THE WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING BRINGING POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER
SEASON. STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS REMAIN WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCE ACROSS THE REGION AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION ENDING. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE LOWERING INTO TONIGHT AS WILL
LIKELY REACH AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO 22 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES BELOW. SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD AND WINDY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING
TO AS LOW AS 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO, AND
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH AT THE SURFACE AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS WILL
AID IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING AND GETTING BACK UP INTO THE 30S. A
COLD FRONT DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE
AIRMASS THAT BUILDS IN IS NOT AS COLD AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS
AIRMASSES WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BASICALLY BE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING IN, WITH SOME SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH ALOFT AS WELL AS
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY STEADY, 30S FOR HIGHS, 20S AND TEENS FOR LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 4
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW COMES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK. FIRST CHANCE WILL BE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOR
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN CT AND LI. CURRENT NBM QPF MEAN IS
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW LATE IN THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
BOTH EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-ADVISORY (LESS THAN 3 INCHES OF
SNOW) AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VSBYS AT EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
EVE IN LIGHT SNOW AND/OR BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE, VFR THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.
NW WINDS 15-25KT WITH G30-40KT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT,
THEN DROPPING OFF TO 25-30KT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THRU THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER 19Z, AND MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY AFT 2Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE THIS EVE.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT.
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO SUNDAY, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WEST OF THE
WATERS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, WITH A COLD AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS, ROUGH SEAS, AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, AND A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING, WITH ICE ACCRETION OF 0.8 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT NEW YORK HARBOR, AND
THE LONG ISLAND EASTERN BAYS WHERE ACCRETION WILL BE UNDER 0.8
INCHES PER HOUR AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT. THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING CONTINUES ON THE
OCEAN WATERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE
DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. ONCE GALES END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN INTO AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING.
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BRIEF 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUN FEB 8:
KEWR: 18/1985
KBDR: 18/1994
KNYC: 8/1895
KLGA: 21/1985
KJFK: 22/1967
KISP: 20/1985
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MON FEB 9:
KEWR: -14/1934
KBDR: 5/1963
KNYC: -15/1934
KLGA: 7/1979
KJFK: 8/1979
KISP: 5/1967
THE RECORD LOWS FOR CENTRAL PARK AND NEWARK ABOVE REPRESENT THE ALL
TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THOSE SITES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL TO THOSE LEVELS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079-
081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-335-350-353-355.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ338-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...MET/JT
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/JT
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