763
FXUS61 KOKX 221907
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MINIMUM WIND CHILL
VALUES BETWEEN -5 AND -10.
2.) CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE LONG LEAD TIME WINTER STORM WATCHES
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND USHER IN AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NOT ONLY WILL ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL COMBINE TO BRING MINIMUM WIND CHILL
VALUES DOWN TO -5 TO -10. THIS MEETS COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND ONE HAS BEEN ISSUED. NBM TEMPS WERE FOLLOWED, BUT
WINDS WERE ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THE NBM90TH DUE TO A KNOWN LOW
BIAS.
THE FRIGID AIR MASS REMAINS ON SATURDAY, AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
TEENS REGION-WIDE WILL MAKE IT ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS IN THE PAST
SEVERAL YEARS. RECORD COLD HIGHS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) AT SOME SITES. WHILE NOT AS BITTERLY COLD AS
SATURDAY, THE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK, LIKELY AIDED BY A FRESH SNOWPACK, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR MOST, AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AN EXPANSIVE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM THEN
INTO MON. PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD DISSIPATE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND
THE VA CAPES, AND THEN MOVES TO A POSITION JUST INSIDE THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NYC METRO AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD NE TO THE REST OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK, WITH
SOME ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FOR THE NYC
METRO AREA. HEAVY SNOW IS THEN LIKELY DAYTIME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING VIA STRONG FRONT-END H7-8 FRONTOGENETIC AND THERMAL FORCING
AIDED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE, SNOW RATIOS LOOK TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE (15:1) AT THE
ONSET, AND THEN SETTLE DOWN A LITTLE CLOSER TO 12:1 AS HEAVIER
PRECIP ARRIVES AND THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SLOWLY WARM.
DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, IT REMAINS POSSIBLE
ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD INTRUDE ALOFT TO FORCE A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR NYC AND LONG
ISLAND. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING, AND
AT ANY RATE THE DAMAGE WILL HAVE BEEN DONE WELL BEFORE THEN AS FAR
AS MEETING 6+ INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT SHOULD BE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 INCHES.
WATCH MENTIONS A BOILERPLATE 6-12 INCHES LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATIONS OVER 12 INCHES, BUT THE ABOVE QPF WITH HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS COULD YIELD WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER A
FOOT.
AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM EXITS NORTH AND EAST INTO MONDAY, THE
DEEPENING LOW AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL, THOUGH HEAVY
SNOWFALL SHOULD BE OVER BY THAT POINT.
COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG ISSUE WITH THIS STORM,
AS BIAS-CORRECTED STOFS SHOWS WATER LEVELS AT NEARLY ALL SITES
REMAINING BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS AS TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN
BELOW 2 FT. UNCERTAINTY IS ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO THE LONG LEAD
TIME, AND GUIDANCE CAN SOMETIMES BE SLOW TO CATCH UP WITH UNFOLDING
LONGER TERM EVENTS, SO IF DEPARTURES ARE CLOSER TO 2.5 FT, THEN SOME
MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15KT G20-30KT WILL LIKELY LOSE THEIR
GUSTS THIS EVENING IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL THEN VEER
MORE TO THE W LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY INCREASE MIXING JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20KT, ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, HAVE
LEFT THE MENTION OUT OVERNIGHT AS THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT. WINDS THEN RAMP BACK UP FROM THE WSW ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT, 15-20 G25-30KT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW
21Z TO 00Z. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
END TIME OF GUSTS THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAY RETURN 05Z-6Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. W WINDS G25-30KT IN THE AFTERNOON, BECOME NW
IN THE EVENING.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT. MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, ENDING ON MONDAY. NE WINDS 10-15KT G20-25KT,
BECOMING NW ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20KT .
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEANS WATERS
AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED SEAS, 20 TO 30 KT WINDS AND AIR TEMPS IN THE TEENS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY (ACCUMULATION OF 0.3 INCHES TO
0.8 INCHES PER HOUR). THE OVERLAND TECHNIQUE WAS MAINLY
FOLLOWED, BUT STALLABRASS AND MINCOG MODELS AS VIEWED ON OPC'S
FREEZING SPRAY GUIDANCE PAGE ARE ALSO SHOWING MODERATE VESSEL
ICING RATES. OTHER BAY AREAS AND THE NEW YORK HARBOR WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE WAVES HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MODERATE VESSEL ICING,
BUT SOME LIGHT ICING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY AT THE BORDERS
OF THESE WATERS.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
BUT THEN A LULL IS LIKELY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS PICK BACK UP
TOMORROW. RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO GALE. AN UPGRADE TO
A GALE WARNING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ON ALL OTHER WATERS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
25 TO 30 KT WIND GUSTS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO FINALLY FALL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
NE GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN, AND ON ALL
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL (WITH SCA COND) BEFORE NW
GALES RESUME LATE MON AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND ON ALL
WATERS MON NIGHT. THESE GALES MAY LINGER INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN.
FOLLOWING THAT, SCA COND LIKELY ON ALL WATERS INTO TUE NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 24:
KEWR: 15/1936
KBDR: 20/2014
KNYC: 6/1882
KLGA: 18/1987
KJFK: 19/1987
KISP: 19/2014
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR CTZ005>012.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-335-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JT
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