225
FXUS61 KOKX 151808
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
208 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND POPS WITH THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS. OTHERWISE,
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. PROBABILITIES
FOR RAIN HAVE DECREASE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN WITH THE
REGION WARM SECTORED AND THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE
DAY AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOME OF THE WIND FROM THE 35-45 KT LLJ COULD MIX DOWN
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVE. HIGHEST RAINFALL SHOULD
BE ACROSS LONG ISLAND WHERE INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGEST PART
OF THE LLJ WILL OCCUR.
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH THIS
AFTN AND EVE, HIGHEST AT THE COAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE US. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS INCREASE AND
BECOME MORE NW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S, THEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THIS EVENING, WITH TIMING FROM 02Z NORTHWEST AT KSWF, TO 03Z-04Z
NYC METRO, TO 06Z EAST.
MVFR CIGS WITH SOME PATCHES OF IFR AT KEWR/KISP/KHPN/KGON,
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, WITH VFR
EXPECTED AT THE NYC METROS BY ABOUT 22Z. AT THAT TIME, S WINDS
THAT HAVE BEEN GUSTING ON THE OCCASIONAL SIDE TODAY SHOULD VEER
SW AND GUST MORE FREQUENTLY INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAIN CHANGES LATER ON ARE TO INCLUDE
TEMPO FOR THUNDER WITH GUSTY WINDS AND IFR VSBY AT MOST SITES
FOR 1-2 HRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WIND
GUSTS TO 30-35 KT ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A FEW HOURS, HIGHEST AT
THE NYC METROS. MOST SITES SHOULD GO QUICKLY VFR AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. EXPECT DIMINISHING NW WINDS LATE
TONIGHT, SETTLING IN AROUND OR JUST OVER 10 KT BY 12Z TUE.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.
KISP TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY
VFR.
WEDNESDAY
VFR. WNW WINDS G25-30KT AFTER 18Z, PEAK G35KT
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY
VFR. NW WINDS G20-25 KT, MOSTLY MORNING.
FRIDAY
VFR.
SATURDAY
MARINE
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 35-45 KT LLJ THIS EVENING AS
WELL AS STRONG CAA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL RESULT
IN GALE CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT NY HARBOR FOR TONIGHT,
THEREFORE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUE MORNING, FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS, AS WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TO SCA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE
FORCE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA
LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD BACK TO SCA LEVELS
LATE FRIDAY AND REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
BETWEEN 1/4 AND 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS THIS EVENING, NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-355.
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