643  
FXUS61 KOKX 080832  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
432 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND PASS EAST BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN  
FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SETTLE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY, THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL STORM  
COULD IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
 
AT 315 AM RADAR SHOWED STEADIER SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM  
ORANGE/PUTNAM/W PASSAIC COUNTIES SW THROUGH THE POCONOS TO  
HARRISBURG PA, WITH SCT ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD IN SW CT AND ALSO IN  
THE NORTHERN PHL SUBURBS IN PA. COLD FRONT WAS STILL NW OF THIS  
ACTIVITY, RUNNING FROM NW OF KALB AND KAVP TO NEAR KUNV, WITH  
GUSTY N WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AIR MASS OVER THE AREA IN THE WARM  
SECTORS IS ON THE HUMID SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, WITH SW  
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST.  
 
THE 06Z HRRR SHOWED THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATING AS IT  
ENCOUNTERS A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS CLOSER TO THE COAST, MOVING  
EASTWARD INTO THE NYC METRO AREA MAINLY FROM ABOUT 10Z-14Z,  
AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT FROM ABOUT 11Z-15Z. FCST  
SOUNDINGS SHOW A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE, WITH DEEP LAYER  
MOISTURE (PW UP TO 1.8 INCHES) AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES  
ALONG WITH FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SO  
EVEN THOUGH RADAR RETURNS LOOK MEAGER ATTM DO EXPECT SOME  
HEAVIER EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO  
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
 
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO OR SHORTLY AFTER 16Z,  
AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON  
EVEN AFTER COLD FROPA FROM NYC EAST. SKIES CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY  
THEREAFTER, WITH A NW-N WIND GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH.  
 
TEMPS TODAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS RECENT DAYS, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ONLY SOMEWHAT TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD  
LIMIT EXTENT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN/NEAR NYC TO  
THE 40S MOST ELSEWHERE, AND REACHING THE UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF  
ORANGE COUNTY. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON  
THUS FAR, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.  
 
AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND  
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH  
LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ONLY IN THE NYC METRO AREA, WITH 30S MOST  
ELSEWHERE, AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
INTERIOR WHERE A FREEZE WATCH IS NOT IN EFFECT, AND ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.  
 
TEMPS MODERATE SOMEWHAT FRI INTO FRI NIGHT, WITH HIGHS 60-65 AND  
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH A FEW UPPER 30S IN  
SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY.  
 
* POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA  
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING,  
AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
* TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID OCTOBER NORMS.  
 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD THE IDEA OF LOW PRESSURE  
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST ON SAT MOVING NNE TO A POSITION OFF  
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS  
HAD SHOWN AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING ATOP THE STORM OVER THE  
NORTHEAST AND SHUNTING IT MORE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WOULD HAVE  
DEALT MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS  
AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL, BUT THEY HAVE NOW TRENDED AWAY FROM  
THAT AND TOWARD THE IDEA OF A NRN STREAM CLOSED LOW DIGGING SE  
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY, PREVENTING UPPER  
RIDGING FROM SHUNTING THE STORM SOUTH, PULLING THE STORM NNE  
AND EVEN STALLING IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON AS THE  
TWO SYSTEMS PHASE ALOFT. THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG  
WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON,  
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIOS  
ATTM ARE FOR WINDS REACHING ADVY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH  
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, PERHAPS CLOSER TO WARNING  
CRITERIA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND,  
AND 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. SEE THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION  
BELOW FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL IMPACTS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.  
 
LOWERING TO MVFR IN SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS DURING THE PRE-DAWN  
HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH, BUT SOME IFR  
CONDITIONS MAINLY AWAY FROM THE CITY TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR  
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR TO CONTINUE THEREAFTER.  
 
S-SW WINDS GUST AROUND 20KT WITH A SHIFT TO NNW BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS INCREASING 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON,  
WITH THE GUSTS LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING FOR SOME TERMINALS.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH MAY BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. SHIFT TO NNW  
MAY OCCUR AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN TAFS.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY  
 
LATE TONIGHT: VFR. NW-N GUSTS 20-25KT MAINLY FOR KLGA AND KJFK.  
 
THURSDAY: VFR. N GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, MAINLY IN THE MORNING.  
 
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: VFR.  
 
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE GUSTS 25-35KT.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT  
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SCA CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS, WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS AS HIGH AS 5-6 FT. POST-FRONTAL  
N FLOW SHOULD BRING SCA COND TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS  
25-30 KT AND OCEAN SEAS REMAINING AT 5-6 FT. THESE CONDITIONS  
SHOULD LAST INTO THU MORNING ON THE OCEAN.  
 
A COASTAL STORM HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING SUSTAINED GALE FORCE  
WINDS AND GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ON THE OCEAN, AND GALE FORCE  
GUSTS ELSEWHERE. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 15-20 FT ON THE OCEAN, 8-12  
FT ON THE SOUND WATERS E OF ORIENT POINT, 5-10 FT AT THE NY  
HARBOR ENTRANCE, AND 5-6 FT ON THE CENTRAL LONG ISLAND SOUND.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
DESPITE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
HEAVY RAIN WITH A COASTAL STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO  
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ATTM AS DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE  
PREVAILED.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
ISSUED STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF NASSAU NY AND FAIRFIELD  
CT AS WATER LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS  
MORNING. N FLOW SHOULD LIMIT WATER LEVELS SOMEWHAT ON THU, BUT  
AS WINDS TURN E ON FRI MINOR FLOODING LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THESE  
AREAS AND ALSO FOR NEWARK BAY.  
 
POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD  
MODERATE FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ON SUNDAY/MONDAY HAS  
INCREASED, VIA THE COMBO OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED  
WITH YESTERDAY'S FULL MOON, AND SURGE GENERATED BY STRONG NE  
FLOW.  
 
 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING  
FOR CTZ005>008.  
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING  
FOR NYZ067>070.  
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING  
FOR NJZ002.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ345.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-  
355.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BG  
NEAR TERM...BG  
SHORT TERM...BG  
LONG TERM...BG  
AVIATION...JC  
MARINE...BG  
HYDROLOGY...BG  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG  
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