915
FXUS61 KOKX 282356
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
756 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER COMING UP TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION
DUE TO NW FLOW WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN. BY
SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW TO
BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR
WESTERN INLAND AREAS. WARMING CONTINUES SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR INLAND WESTERN AREAS
AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER THEREAFTER THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE PARTIAL REBOUND HEADING INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. JET GETS CLOSE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES NEAR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA GETS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES LATE
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY, MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
THEN SLOWLY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AND COULD VERY WELL STALL
OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE PRESENT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND FRONTS SO CHANGES IN POPS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. OVERALL THOUGH, HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MORE OF THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
THE FORECAST HAS LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN IS THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT FOR THE INTERIOR, SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TO
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN.
THE FORECAST ALSO HAS LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. INTERIOR ZONES HAVE A WINTRY MIX WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY
ANOTHER RAIN EVENT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR.
NW WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SW-S WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT, INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY, THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LATE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 8PM
THIS EVENING WITH NEAR 25KT GUSTS FROM THE NW. QUIET, SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS SW
FLOW INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BEGIN ON AT LEAST
THE OCEAN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MAINLY DUE TO RISING WAVE HEIGHTS
WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 10-12 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCA POTENTIAL EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS, SCA POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO, SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GALES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ON THE
OCEAN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/MW
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