123
FXUS61 KOKX 072040
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT PASSES THROUGH DURING SATURDAY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN PREVAILS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS THEN TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
LOW PRESSURE HEADS NE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
QUICKLY BEHIND IT. SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THIS EVENING, THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE, AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION, WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET MAY PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN LI OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH COASTAL AREAS GUSTING
TO 25-30 MPH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXIT SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOLLOWS LATER IN
THE DAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A MILD DAY AS THE STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE MUCH IMPACT. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S (5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THEN KEEPS US DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT A POLAR VORTEX NEAR
JAMES BAY IN EASTERN CANADA WILL INTERACT WITH ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET, CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL SEND A SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD BEHIND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST, IT WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING RAINS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE CENTER WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN LI LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM A LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY ANY LEFTOVER RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE CONCERNS ABOUT ANY IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY POINTS
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAS HAVE FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE MID WEEK WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BEFORE
BECOMING COOLER THAN NORMAL TOWARDS LATE WEEK.
* BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
* ASIDE FROM CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AS SYSTEM DEPARTS, NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
DEEP ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIVES INTO SOUTHEAST US AND MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE DEEP TROUGH EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH THEN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AND MOVES IN MIDWEEK AND POTENTIALLY GETS SOME
AMPLIFICATION ON THE BACKSIDE WITH A SMALLER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ON THE AVERAGE, EXPECTING TROUGH TO BE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT IN THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM.
ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES WITH RESPECT TO THE
00Z NOVEMBER 7TH INITIALIZATION, FOR EARLY TUESDAY, 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN. THIS IS A SIGN OF A
MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS ENCOMPASSING THE REGION. NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE WAS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NBM ALONE LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, FOR MONDAY, THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT JUST MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL BE DEEPENING DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD, MAKING FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITSELF AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AS IT RETROGRADES WITHIN EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE LOCAL REGION, A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ONE
FRIDAY. THE TIMING WITH THESE FRONTS IS UNCERTAIN AND COULD VARY
SEVERAL HOURS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE COLDER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS WILL GET REINFORCED IN THE PROCESS. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE, MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY BUT
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION COULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE WHEN THE PRECIPITATION
OCCURS.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS FROM ABOUT 3Z-6Z,
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 6-8Z AT MOST TERMINALS.
CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS AT MORE OUTLYING TERMINALS LATE.
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
TERMINALS BY 13-16Z.
SSW-S WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS START TO DIMINISH
EARLY TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE W IS EXPECTED BY THE
SATURDAY MORNING PUSH WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT BY LATE MORNING. A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 KT NOT ENTIRELY RULED OUT, MOSTLY FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS. WIND CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE NW INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ISOLATED 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR THE TIMING OF RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY: BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G25KT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY: RAIN DEVELOPING. MVFR COND EXPECTED, IFR POSSIBLE. SE WINDS
G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW-W WINDS G15-20KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G25-30KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
PRIMARILY ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF DAY AND
TONIGHT. WOULDN'T DOUBT A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35KT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ANY TIME FROM AROUND SUNSET TO MIDNIGHT, BUT AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES AND KEEPING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, DECIDED TO MAINTAIN SCAS AND MESSAGE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35KT. SCA CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN DURING SATURDAY, HOWEVER
EXTENDED IT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AS
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. A PERIOD OF
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOWS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS THEN INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW. WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED A SCA AT LEAST ON THE
OCEAN FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS WHOLE TIMEFRAME. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD FOR ALL
FORECAST WATERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR GALES ALSO TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN, BUT NON-FORECAST WATERS WILL
HAVE A POSSIBILITY FOR GALES AS WELL AT TIMES.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN NASSAU
COUNTY FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW COMBINES WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. AN ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER IF
WINDS TREND STRONGER WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page