059
FXUS61 KOKX 252042
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
342 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE 1 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL SNOW/SLEET
AMOUNTS OF 9-12 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NYC METRO AREA AND
LONG ISLAND, WITH 12-18 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
2) MINOR COASTAL AND BEACH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG
SOME OF THE SHORELINE AND OCEANFRONT LATE TONIGHT.
3) ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WINTER STORM UNDERWAY AS DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT OVERRUNS LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIR, WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE AREA.
WAA ALOFT HAS BROUGHT WARMER AIR INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND
PARTS OF LONG ISLAND AS EXPECTED, WITH PRECIP MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET. THE TRANSITION TO SLEET SHOULD WORK
ITS WAY UP INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
ORANGE/PUTNAM, AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO AN INCH ON TOP OF
SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN SHOULD TAKE PLACE MAINLY ACROSS NE
NJ, NYC AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER, LONG ISLAND, AND COASTAL CT,
WITH LESSER AMTS INLAND. THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
THINS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
LONG ISLAND, WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING FURTHER TO FREEZING RAIN
IN THE ABOVE AREAS, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ICE
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER BOROUGHS OF NYC ACROSS TO
LONG ISLAND, AND LESSER AMTS TO THE NORTH. AS THE MID LEVELS DRY
OUT, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY EVEN BE
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND LATE TONIGHT.
TOTAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 9-12 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF NE NJ, NYC, AND LONG ISLAND, TO 12-18 INCHES
NORTH OF THERE, HIGHEST ACROSS ORANGE/PUTNAM WHERE THE LEAST AMT
OF MIXING WILL BE TAKING PLACE. THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL NOT
CHANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OCCURRING BEFORE THE
MIX/CHANGE WITH SLEET.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AS OF 19Z WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND,
MID/UPPER 20S MOST ELSEWHERE, AND TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE AND EAST END OF LONG ISLAND.
ANY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND THE TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR LOWER PROBABILITIES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES
UNTIL 1 PM, BUT COULD BE CANCELLED OR REPLACED WITH AN ADVISORY
DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY, NE WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE WATER
LEVELS ENOUGH TO APPROACH OR JUST EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS DURING HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE
OF NASSAU, IN JAMAICA BAY, SOME OF THE TIDAL WATERWAYS OF NE NJ,
ALONG THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, AND ALSO THE EASTERN BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND, PARTICULARLY N-E FACING SHORES.
MINOR BEACH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT FROM 4 TO 6 FT BREAKING WAVES WITH AN E-W SWEEP,
THOUGH THE RISK FOR DUNE EROSION IS LOW. ALONG N-E FACING COASTS
OF THE SOUND AND GARDINER'S BAY, BREAKING WAVES OF 3-5 FT COULD
LOCALLY EXACERBATE SHORELINE EROSION AND FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE WINTER STORM LATE
MONDAY, CONTINUING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE RANGE
OF 20-25 THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND AROUND 10 ABOVE FOR COASTAL AREAS. WIND
CHILLS EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
PARTICULARLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO SLEET BUT NOT EXPECTING IMPROVEMENTS TO BE LONG
LASTING EVEN AS SLEET CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS MIXED WITH OR
TRANSITIONED TO JUST SLEET AROUND THE NYC METRO TERMINALS AND
KISP. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
THESE LOCATIONS, PERHAPS MIXING BACK IN WITH SN AT TIMES. SLEET
MAY MIX IN WITH SNOW FOR CONNECTICUT TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING
AS WELL. KSWF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW. AS PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY TAPERS THIS EVENING, SLEET ALONG THE COAST MAY BECOME
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KSWF.
N/NE WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. THE GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AM, THEN RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DIRECTION BACKS TO THE NW.
TOTAL FORECAST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION THRU 06Z MONDAY:
NYC METRO TERMINALS: 8 TO 12 INCHES
KHPN: 12 TO 14 INCHES
KSWF: 12 TO 18 INCHES
CT TERMINALS: 10 TO 12 INCHES
KISP: 10 TO 12 INCHES
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY: ANY MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT, SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WARNING TO ALL WATERS BY NY HARBOR FOR
LATE TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH, WITH E-NE FLOW GUSTING UP TO 40 KT.
NE WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS
REMAINING ON THE OCEAN AND THE FAR ERN SOUND BY MON MORNING.
W-NW WINDS THAN PICK UP LATE MON AFTERNOON, WITH PRIMARILY SCA
CONDS ON ALL WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT, HOWEVER GUSTS
COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH GALE FORCE MON NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
SCA CONDS LAST ON THE OCEAN FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THU MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS THEN INCREASE THU NIGHT INTO FRI, WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO ALL WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-345-350-
353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ340.
DISCUSSION...JC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN
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