574  
FXUS61 KOKX 272325  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
725 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES NORTH AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT.  
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER  
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING  
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WILL  
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY, DEEPENING AS  
IT LIFTS NORTH UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ASSOCIATED  
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED  
QUICKLY BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE  
TO DEEPEN AS LIFTS UP INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
CLEAR AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A COOL AUTUMN CP AIR MASS HAS  
CONTINUED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSING  
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR A LITTLE WHILE  
LONGER. THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH THE WINDS CAN TRY TO  
STIR UP SOME, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS  
WINDS LOW ENOUGH FURTHER TO THE NW AND NOT AS MUCH FURTHER EAST  
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS FROST FORMATION SHOULD BE MORE ROBUST ACROSS  
NW AND N INTERIOR ZONES, BUT ACROSS EASTERN CT ZONES IT IS MORE  
DOUBTFUL. THUS, HAVE GONE WITH FROST ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN  
ZONES IN CT, AND NO. WESTCHESTER AND ROCKLAND, AND FOR W. PASSAIC  
AND W. BERGEN IN NJ. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH FREEZE WARNINGS IN ORANGE  
AND PUTNAM. CHOSE TO DO THIS AS THESE AREAS THAT HAVE THE WARNING GO  
LOW WITH TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS  
LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
LOWS WILL RANGE PRIMARILY FROM THE 40S IN THE MORE URBAN SECTIONS  
ALONG THE COAST, TO MAINLY 30S ELSEWHERE, WITH LOWER 30S CONFINED  
MAINLY TO ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING  
RESIDES.  
 
ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AS ANY MOISTURE WITH  
AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC  
COAST IS LIKELY TO BE SUPPRESSED. ANY POPS THAT EXISTED PREVIOUSLY  
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN LOWERED. HIGH  
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON  
AND IN THE EARLY EVENING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. A NE WIND  
GRADUALLY PICKS UP THROUGH THE DAY, THUS A BREEZY DAY SETS UP,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SYNOPTIC  
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP  
OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY NIGHT,  
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTHWEST. SKIES MAY EVEN BE MAINLY  
CLEAR FOR AWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR ESPECIALLY. A  
NE WIND SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE STRONG RADIATIONAL  
COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR, OTHERWISE WITH THE NE WIND AND MORE  
CLOUDS FURTHER SE IT NOT BE AS CHILLY OVERALL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO MAINLY CHANCE  
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THUS MOST PLACES WILL  
REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY WITH A RELATIVELY HIGHER SHOWER FURTHER EAST  
AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LINE OF THINKING ACTUALLY APPEARS  
NOW TO HOLD WELL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS LIKELY POPS GET VERY  
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LI. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS, BUT OVERALL WEDNESDAY DOESN'T LOOK  
QUITE AS WET. HOWEVER, UNSETTLED AT TIMES AND ESPECIALLY LATE BEFORE  
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OFF TO THE WEST GETS CLOSER AND STRONGER LOW  
PRESSURE CAN START TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM. SO OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING  
AND LIFT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. MOST  
PLACES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST  
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LIKELY  
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY, AND GUSTY WINDS  
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
* RAIN FORECAST TO TAPER OFF WITH SOME REMAINING SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN.  
 
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40  
MPH LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
* FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY MINOR, PARTICULARLY FOR THE POOR DRAINAGE  
AREAS.  
 
* MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF  
THE COAST FROM THE HIGHER STORM SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY THURSDAY  
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
NBM GENERALLY FOLLOWED EXCEPT WHERE NOTED BELOW.  
 
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL  
SEND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH, TRACKING CLOSE TO THE SPINE OF  
APPALACHIANS. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA  
THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.  
THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE  
LOW TRACKS WELL WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING TO  
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ALONG WITH STRONG  
THERMAL FORCING AND JET DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE A NORTH-SOUTH RIBBON  
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE  
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL  
BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION,  
WITH STRONG LIFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE A POSSIBILITY. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE WILL BE FROM  
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND NBM  
HAVE BOTH HIGH PROBABILITIES (60-85%) OF SEEING GREATER THAN AN INCH  
OF RAINFALL. FOR 2 INCHES AND HIGHER, PROBABILITIES DIFFER QUITE A  
BIT WITH THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ONLY AT 10-20%, WITH THE NBM AT 30-60%.  
BASED ON THE STRONG E/SE WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT,  
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS WELL AS SOUTHERN INTERIOR CT  
WOULD BE THE MORE FAVORABLE SIGHTS FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  
HOWEVER, THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL JETS WILL BE  
KEY TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDED RAIN. AS FOR HOURLY  
RATES, WE ARE YET TO GET INTO THE TIMEFRAME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE,  
BUT RAINFALLS AMOUNT UP TO 0.5"/HR SEEM PLAUSIBLE. HOWEVER, THIS  
WILL BE MORE OF A LONG DURATION EVENT (6-12H) WITH HOURLY RATES MORE  
LIKELY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2" RANGE. FFG VALUES FOR 1-6HR AMOUNTS ARE  
MAINLY IN THE 2-3" RANGE, EXCEPT NE NJ, WHICH IS A BIT LOWER AT 1-  
2.5". THUS, EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE OF A MINOR, NUISANCE POOR  
DRAINAGE FLOOD EVENT. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON  
THE TIMING. IF THERE ARE ANY TRENDS TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN AS IT  
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, THE FLOOD THREAT WOULD INCREASE.  
 
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD THE WARM FRONT FROM THE E/SE WILL LIKELY  
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ON THURSDAY, STRONGEST AT THE COAST.  
WEST WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO  
DEEPEN AND PULL AWAY, COULD GET INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR THE  
TIME THOUGH, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, WITH  
BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. WENT HIGHER THAN THE NBM  
WITH WINDS OVER LAND AS IT SEEMS DEFICIENT BASED ON LATEST MODEL  
SOUNDINGS AND ITS KNOWN LOW BIAS IN A WELL-MIXED WEST FLOW. WINDS  
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM  
THE SW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND  
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  
 
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE  
40S. THESE VALUES VARY NOT TOO FAR FROM THE MEAN.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OVER QUEBEC THRU TUESDAY,  
WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
COAST.  
 
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHC MVFR  
CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM S TO N AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.  
 
MAINLY NE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL GENERALLY BE  
LIGHT TO START OFF (LESS THAN 10 KT). WINDS START TO INCREASE  
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY  
INTENSIFIES. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT START A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER  
12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY.  
 
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.  
 
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN GUST SPEEDS AFTER 12Z TUESDAY,  
WITH GUSTS EARLIER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE  
AND WHETHER GUSTS STRENGTHEN IN THE EVENING (AFTER 22Z) TO 20  
TO 25 KT.  
 
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: BECOMING MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. NE  
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT.  
 
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY LATE AND  
OVERNIGHT. NE/ENE FLOW 20-30KT.  
 
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. E FLOW BECOMING SE. SOME LLWS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
FRIDAY: BECOMING VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS.  
 
SATURDAY: VFR WITH DECREASING W WINDS.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY  
TUESDAY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DEVELOP. FIRST FOR THE  
OCEAN WATERS, THEN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DEVELOP SMALL CRAFT WIND  
GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SW TO NE. SMALL CRAFT  
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE  
APPALACHIANS, THEN UP INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,  
WITH GALES LIKELY AT THAT TIME. EXPECT E/SE GALES ON THURSDAY,  
VEERING AROUND TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY. BRIEF STORM FORCE GUSTS  
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. GALE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE  
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS.  
WAVES ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AS HIGH 10 TO 15 FT, AND 4 TO 8  
FT ON LI SOUND.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE  
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OVERALL ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR  
HOURLY RATES, WE ARE YET TO GET INTO THE TIMEFRAME OF THE HIRES  
GUIDANCE, BUT RAINFALLS AMOUNT UP TO 0.5"/HR SEEM PLAUSIBLE.  
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE MORE OF A LONG DURATION EVENT (6-12H) WITH  
HOURLY RATES MORE LIKELY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2" RANGE. FFG VALUES  
FOR 1-6HR AMOUNTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 2-3" RANGE, EXCEPT NE NJ,  
WHICH IS A BIT LOWER AT 1-2.5". THUS, EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE OF  
A MINOR, NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD EVENT.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
WITH INCREASING AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW, FETCH WILL INCREASE AND THIS  
PILING OF WATER WILL INCREASE SURGE. THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL AS A  
RESULT FOR SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD EXCEED BENCHMARKS FOR MINOR  
COASTAL FLOODING AS WELL AS PERHAPS A FEW THAT COULD APPROACH OR  
EXCEED MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THE LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE LOOKS TO BE THE MORE PROBLEMATIC ONE WITH  
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, THIS IS  
MOSTLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH SOME LOWER POSSIBILITY  
(I.E. ISOLATED OR LOCALIZED) FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.  
 
 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR  
CTZ005>008.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR  
NYZ069-070.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR  
NYZ067-068.  
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR  
NJZ002-103.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY  
FOR ANZ331-335.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY  
FOR ANZ332-338-340-345.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY  
FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW  
NEAR TERM...JE  
SHORT TERM...JE  
LONG TERM...DW  
AVIATION...JP  
MARINE...JE/DW  
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//  
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