753
FXUS61 KOKX 111831
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WNW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING MONDAY MORNING.
2) COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A
RETURN TO COLD TEMPERATURES.
3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AROUND
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP THROUGH THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THIS, SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. FOR INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST, ANY SNOW
SHOWERS COULD BE MORE SQUALL-LIKE IN NATURE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY SNOW SHOWER FROM
PERSISTING AS THEY PROGRESS FURTHER EAST. WNW WINDS TONIGHT
REMAIN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF A POLAR AIR MASS
TO THE REGION. WITH WARMER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS LIKELY THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY TO
START AS RAIN, THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM NE TO SW
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS A RIDGE OUT WEST SHARPENS, AND
THE TROUGH IN THE EAST AMPLIFIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS AMPLIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY THE CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL NWP
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION, AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES, LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH HOWEVER AT THIS TIME, THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINLY WITH ANY TIMING, POSITION AND STRENGTH
OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD, WILL STICK TO THE NBM
POPS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. A FEW MAY BE SQUALL-LIKE.
WNW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20KT WILL INCREASE 15-25KT WITH GUSTS
30-35KT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT/TROF PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE IN THE 09-10Z FRAME, GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE WSW LATE
MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE DELAYED 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST ONSET THIS
EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN A SNOW SHOWER.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. WSW WIND G20-25 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. SW WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN MORNING SNOW. N-NW WIND G20-25KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
WNW FLOW. GALE CONDITIONS END BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THAT END BY THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT BRING SCA CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MUCH OF
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...BC/MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page