166
FXUS61 KOKX 200623
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY IMPACTS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EAST COAST.
* DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT TO THE
EAST AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL RELAX THROUGH
THE MORNING. WINDS TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AFTER DAY BREAK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST. A BROAD SW
FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING IN SOME CLOUDS TODAY, BUT OVERALL A PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 30S INLAND
AND LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. ANY
SIGNIFICANT LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALSO PASSES WELL TO OUR
NORTH. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN S-SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S CLOSE TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SW WINDS TO
START THE DAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME
GUSTY, GENERALLY 25-30 MPH, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD PEAK
CLOSER TO 35 MPH LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH POTENTIAL OF GUSTS
20-25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS AND
COLDER CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
* TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLE BY MID-WEEK, POTENTIALLY
ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST SYSTEM
TO IMPACT THE AREA OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. PARENT LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS OVER NEW ENGLAND OR JUST TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SIGNALING A BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR THAT IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM CREATES SOME CONCERN AT THE ONSET FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE DAY BREAK TUESDAY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN PLAIN LIGHT RAIN AT THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. INCREASING SW FLOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD HELP TRANSITION PRECIP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN, PRECIP AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MOST OF
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MAY PASS NEARBY ON CHRISTMAS DAY OR
FRIDAY, BUT GUIDANCE IS MUCH TOO VARIABLE AND INCONSISTENT TO
HONE DOWN ANY DETAILS AT THIS TIME. THE OVERALL PATTERN HOWEVER
LEANS MORE TOWARDS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, IF ANY WERE TO OCCUR.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
FLURRIES AND NOT CAUSE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TO W AROUND 10 KT BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: VFR. W WINDS 15G20-25KT, SHIFTING NW AT NIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR COND LIKELY,
IFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: SNOW LIKELY WITH IFR COND AT KHPN/KSWF IN THE MORNING, THEN
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON. A RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE (WITH
MVFR COND LIKELY/IFR POSSIBLE) SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS G20KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT, BECOMING NW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6 AM. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME OF THE WARNING WILL BE CONVERTED OVER TO AN SCA
EARLIER THAN 6 AM. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS
THIS MORNING, BUT OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35 KT ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF MORICHES INLET TONIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR GALES LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ON THE OCEAN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WINDS WEAKEN
ON MONDAY AND OCEAN SEAS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. CONDITIONS
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA
ON TUESDAY, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/MW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW
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