850  
FXUS61 KOKX 180832  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
432 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. LOW  
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED  
STATES TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY  
THURSDAY NIGHT, SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY  
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER AND GENERALLY REMAINS  
IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE  
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
 
A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AT 08Z IS EXPECTED  
TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DENSE  
FOG WAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, LONG ISLAND AND INTO COASTAL  
CONNECTICUT, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL  
700 AM EDT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING  
OF THE WARM FRONT.  
 
WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE OR INSTABILITY THIS MORNING, HAVE REMOVED  
THE MENTION OF THUNDER. HOWEVER, IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS  
AFTERNOON SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED CAPE  
DEVELOP, AND WITH WEAK UPPER ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION,  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL  
BECOME MOISTURE LADEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING  
TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP  
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, AS THE STORM  
WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOCAL  
NUISANCE AND URBAN FLOODING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW  
JERSEY, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND INTO NEW YORK CITY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
ONCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS  
EVENING, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE  
AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND,  
AND WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S HEAT  
INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. THE AREA WILL  
BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING, AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY. SOME OF THE  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE  
PRIMARY THREAT, SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, AND AN ISOLATED  
TORNADO AND/OR WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK,  
WITH THE REMAINDER IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING  
FAIRLY QUICKLY, AND TRAINING IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH THE PASSAGE  
OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL END. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FOR  
FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS ALOFT START RISING FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES. THIS  
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH POTENTIAL  
FOR HEAT HEADLINES.  
 
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HIGH HEAT IS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONCE THE  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF MORE. AWAY FROM THE COAST  
EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S  
DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN MAX HEAT INDICES 100-105. WHILE SUNDAY  
WILL STILL BE HOT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN SOME GUIDANCE  
NOW HINTING AT ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE RIDGE AND  
BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON  
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. FOR NOW STUCK  
WITH NBM FOR POPS FOR THIS WHICH HAS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  
 
WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS, WITH LOW STRATUS, DRIZZLE AND  
AREAS OF DENSE FOG, SHOULD PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS  
MOVE ACROSS AHEAD OF WARM FROPA BETWEEN UNTIL ABOUT 12Z-13Z AT  
MOST TERMINALS, LATER AT KGON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED  
THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO  
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO THE DAY TO HIGH-END  
IFR OR MVFR DUE TO THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS WITH A  
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING IN LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TONIGHT SURROUNDING THE CHANCE FOR FOG  
OR LOW CEILINGS REDEVELOPING.  
 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SE. LIGHT WINDS TURN SW TONIGHT.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
AMD POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DEVIATING FROM FORECAST.  
 
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT  
CHANCES ARE LOW.  
 
UNCERTAINTY IN FOG AND LOW CIGS REDEVELOPING TONIGHT.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
 
 
TONIGHT: LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAINLY AT THE LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS  
WITH IFR/LIFR COND. MVFR COND POSSIBLE AT THE NYC METROS NORTH/WEST.  
 
THURSDAY: ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUD/FOG (SHOULD IT OCCUR) IMPROVES  
TO VFR BY 15Z. SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH IFR THEN POSSIBLE IN THE  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, SOME WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS FROM THE NYC  
METROS NORTH/WEST.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT  
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR THE  
FORECAST WATERS, EXCEPT NEW YORK HARBOR, WITH VISIBILITIES LESS  
THAN 1 NM. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING  
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IMPROVING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE  
WARM FRONT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.  
 
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY INTO THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, THEN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A  
COLD FRONT THURSDAY GUSTS MAY BE NEAR 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS,  
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS, LATE IN THE DAY AND  
THURSDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FEET.  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW 25 KT, HOWEVER OCEAN  
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY  
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN  
CONNECTICUT AND SUFFOLK COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING. ONE HALF TO  
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, IS  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NORTHEASTERN NEW  
JERSEY, AND NEW YORK CITY INTO THIS EVENING, AND LOCAL  
NUISANCE AND URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THE  
RISK OF FLOODING WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE SPEED OF ANY CELLS AND  
LACK OF OVERALL CELL TRAINING.  
 
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN  
BEACHES IS MODERATE TODAY AND THURSDAY. INCREASING SW FLOW LATE  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP  
CURRENTS LATER IN THE DAY.  
 
 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.  
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-  
078>081-177-179.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-  
335-340-345-350-353-355.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT  
NEAR TERM...MET  
SHORT TERM...MET  
LONG TERM...JT  
AVIATION...JT  
MARINE...MET/JT  
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
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