231  
FXUS61 KOKX 270846  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
346 AM EST THU FEB 27 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE SHIFTS  
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT  
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LOW STALLS AND PIVOTS WELL  
NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE  
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN SLIDES EAST ON MONDAY. A SLOW  
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO  
THE MID-WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE  
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES  
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY  
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE  
FRONT. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE CWA BY 9 OR  
10 AM FOR THE MOST NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AS THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES INTO  
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
DAY SUSTAINED AT 20 - 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.  
 
WITH STRONG CAA IN THE CWA, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH  
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES FROM THE  
ENCOMPASSING DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS  
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH OCCLUDES  
AND STALLS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH  
THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO  
REMAIN DRY AS CAA BRINGS HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE TO A  
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
QUIET AND COLDER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
ACROSS THE REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN 30S TO NEAR 40 DURING THE DAY AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW  
20S AT NIGHT WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES  
EAST AND WINDS GO AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON MONDAY, WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL  
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE REGION  
INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND MILD AIRMASS  
TO THE REGION, BUT ALSO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF PERIODS OF  
RAIN AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE SLOW MOVING "COLD"  
FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR, MONDAY INTO  
MONDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM A FEW  
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE MONDAY TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE  
BY MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEEP LOW  
PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL  
RAPIDLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 10-12Z AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND  
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. LOWER CONDITIONS COULD HOLD ON  
THROUGH 13-14Z AT KGON, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO 4-5 KFT  
BEFORE SCATTERING.  
 
EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT TO  
THE SW BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE. DURING THIS  
TRANSITION A BRIEF 1-3 HR WINDOW OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE, 09-12Z NYC  
METRO AND HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS, 10Z KBDR/KISP, AND CLOSE TO 12Z  
KGON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH  
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT. A  
FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE CITY  
AND COASTAL TERMINALS.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
   
LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY
 
VFR WITH W WINDS G25-30KT.   
SATURDAY
 
VFR. W/NW WINDS G20-25KT.   
SUNDAY
 
VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.   
MONDAY
 
VFR EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY AND  
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS  
INCREASE TO UP TO 40 KTS AND WAVES INCREASE TO 7 TO 9 FEET SOUTH  
OF LONG ISLAND. GALE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN, AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO  
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.  
 
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY  
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS, BUT MARGINAL SCA OCEAN  
SEAS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS  
MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME ISOLATED 1-INCH  
TOTALS MAY BE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) IS STILL  
OPERATING AT REDUCED POWER.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-  
350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MW  
NEAR TERM...MW  
SHORT TERM...MW  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...FEB/PW  
MARINE...MW  
HYDROLOGY...MW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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