791
FXUS61 KOKX 091142
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A ROUND OF WET WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, THEN FOG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
2. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO A
PORTION OF MONDAY.
3. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST US WILL SEND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEARBY ONTARIO/QUEBEC, SENDING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NW OF NYC.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTING
WITH A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE LIFT. WITH SOME
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY, TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NYC METRO
AREA EAST INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH NOW EXPECTED
FOR NYC, LONG ISLAND, AND COASTAL CT, WITH 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH MOST
ELSEWHERE, AND ONLY 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WELL NW OF NYC.
SHOWERS SHOULD END LATE TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
THIS EVENING FARTHER SOUTH/EAST, POSSIBLY HANGING ON UNTIL
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS, ESPECIALLY FOR LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT, WHERE THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE LATE
TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL NW OF NYC AND A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST ELSEWHERE, WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND S
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
IN THE NYC METRO AREA, AND 15-20 MPH FARTHER INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST. A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT IS THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH SENDS
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS, WITH ONE OR MORE WEAK FRONTAL WAVES
PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1/10 TO
1/4 INCH NW OF NYC.
NBM IS CATCHING UP OR EVEN SURPASSING MOS TEMP TRENDS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, THEN RISE TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY AWAY FROM SOUTH FACING SHORES WHERE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE MORE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUE WILL DIVE SE TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED, THEN CONTINUE INTO THE
NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC WED NIGHT INTO THU, PASSING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN HEAD SLOWLY
E-NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WED INTO WED NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POP FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THU. AS THE LOW LINGERS, WITH CHANCE POP FOR THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AS FORECAST CERTAINTY DECREASES ON THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR THIS MORNING WITH MVFR BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR KSWF THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. INCLUDED TSRA IN A PROB30
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AS THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE, ALBEIT LOW.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THEN BECOME LIKELY BY 0-3Z SUNDAY WITH
LOW STRATUS AND A POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WESTERN TERMINALS MAY HOLD OFF LOWER CATEGORIES A
BIT LONGER AND RECOVER EARLIER THAN COASTAL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY
MORNING. VFR GRADUALLY EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASES TO NEAR 10-15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS AROUND
20 KT, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KISP. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT W ON SUNDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES, TIMING OF
SHOWERS, AND OCCURRENCE OF ANY TSRA.
CONDITIONS COULD VERY WELL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS
AFTERNOON
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: PATCHY FOG EARLY WITH MVFR/IFR, POSSIBLE LIFR.
CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR AS WELL. MVFR OR LOWER MORE
LIKELY AT NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
MONDAY: SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS, TAPERING OFF
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT. GUSTS DIMINISH AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. SHOWERS
BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. S WINDS G15-20KT. GUSTS DIMINISH
AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE
OCEAN AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AFTER A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING, WITH OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 OR 6 FT AS
WELL. CANCELLED SCA FOR THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS AS PEAK WIND
GUSTS THERE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25 KT. SOME 5-FT SEAS SHOULD
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ON THE OCEAN.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THEREAFTER INTO
WED MORNING. INCREASING S WINDS ON WED COULD BRING MINIMAL SCA
COND TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM
SANDY HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND INLET, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...GOODMAN
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