485
FXUS61 KOKX 082345
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
645 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS EXPIRED AND A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
2) LIGHT SNOW/WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
3) TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY.
4) CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW NEXT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHILE LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH AND AIR TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WIND
CHILLS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10F TO -15F.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY
FOLLOWING TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, HEIGHTS START FALLING LATE
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
QPF OVERALL LOOKS LIGHT. BLENDED IN SOME NBM90TH WITH THE NBM
GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC NBM LOOKED LOWER THAN LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND LATEST LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
MAINLY AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. FOR MANY THIS WILL
FALL AS ALL SNOW, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH RAIN
AND OR SLEET MIXING IN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NJ, NYC AND LONG
ISLAND. LATEST FORECAST HAS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR EASTERN CT
AND EASTERN LI WITH A FEW TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3
MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHEAST, KEEPING THE AREA BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE WARMER
THAN THE RECENT STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER THAT BEGAN THE LAST WEEK OF
JANUARY.
ON THE HEELS OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THE
ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY NW FLOW (UP TO 25
MPH). HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL THEN BUILD EAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S,
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS INLAND AND THE LOWER 20S AT THE COAST. THE
COLDEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 4
BOTH THE DYNAMICAL AND AI GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY OF LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTING THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE CROSS POLAR FLOW WE
HAVE SEEN OF LATE BECOMES CUTOFF AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
JET BECOMES DOMINANT ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION, SHORT TERM SIGNALS AO, NAO, PNA ALL SHOWING A BREAKDOWN OF
THE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT HAS KEPT THE AREA UNSEASONABLY COLD AND
STORMY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL WITH
MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS W OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEFORE GUSTS
END 04Z/05Z. TIMING OF GUSTS ENDING MAY BE OFF AROUND AN HOUR.
WINDS REMAIN NW MONDAY MORNING, 10-15KT, BECOMING MORE WNW AND
DIMINISHING MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KGON LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW/VRB WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, MVFR POSSIBLE IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INLAND
AND RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST LATE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-25KT WEDNESDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ALL GALE WARNINGS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT ON ALL WATERS AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN A NW FLOW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUN FEB 8:
KEWR: 18/1985
KBDR: 18/1994
KNYC: 8/1895
KLGA: 21/1985
KJFK: 22/1967
KISP: 20/1985
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MON FEB 9:
KEWR: -14/1934
KBDR: 5/1963
KNYC: -15/1934
KLGA: 7/1979
KJFK: 8/1979
KISP: 5/1967
THE RECORD LOWS FOR CENTRAL PARK AND NEWARK ABOVE REPRESENT THE ALL
TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THOSE SITES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL TO THOSE LEVELS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
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