091
FXUS61 KOKX 071138
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
738 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY
AND SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON FRIDAY, GETTING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, POPS FOR SHOWERS, AND CLOUD COVERAGE TO
BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.
WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM VARIABLE TO MORE EASTERLY FLOW EARLY
TODAY. WEAK LOW DEVELOPS NEAR DELMARVA EARLY TODAY. NAM QUITE
CLOSER THAN OTHER MODELS WITH REGARDS TO LOW'S PROXIMITY TO LONG
ISLAND. THERE IS SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST
REGION TO NORTH OF LOW, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FARTHER NORTHWARD
NAM MODEL FOR EARLY TODAY.
MODELS INDICATE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS GOING INTO THIS MORNING
WITH SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE. THE WEAK LOW NEAR DELMARVA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. WHILE THE RIDGING
ALOFT AND HIGH AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTIONS,
MITIGATING SHOWER POTENTIAL, THE SHOWER POTENTIAL CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. CLOUDS ARE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN INTO THIS MORNING.
LOOKING AT THE CAMS, HRW NSSL AND THE NAM NEST DEPICT SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION, TOWARDS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND NYC BEFORE 14Z. WILL
KEEP COVERAGE SCATTERED WITH POPS OF AROUND 30-35 PERCENT FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME AND LESS ELSEWHERE. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN
MOSTLY LIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS.
EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER. CHOSE A
BLEND OF MODEL DATA THAT KEEPS THE COAST COOLER SO USED METMOS
AND NBM BLEND, WITH FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST NJ MORE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE. SOME CAMS SHOW POSSIBLE SHOWER INITIATION
WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOTS
OF DRY AIR STILL APPEAR IN THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE WEAK LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA, TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.
INTO EARLY TONIGHT, THE MID LEVELS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONVEY SLIGHT RIDGING. THE TREND IN HEIGHTS GOES TO NEUTRAL TO
MORE NEGATIVE FOR LATE TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, THE WEAK LOW WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS EAST OF THE
70 DEGREE W MERIDIAN BY EARLY FRIDAY. NAM STRONGEST WITH LOW
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS IN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT, BUT THE VAST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE QPF OF THIS
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS CONVEY SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DIMINISHING IN WIND
SPEED. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL FURTHER LOWER TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. LOWS WERE FROM NBM AND THESE
WILL BE RANGING FROM LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HEIGHT TENDENCY NEARLY STEADY FRIDAY IN MID LEVELS. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT SURFACE. WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTH AND
WEST AND DECAYS WITHIN THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY INCREASES ENOUGH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO BE PUT INTO FORECAST.
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
RELATIVELY HIGHER FARTHER SOUTHWARD LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
REGION. MODELS DEPICT LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THAT MAY APPROACH CLOSE TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES OVERALL COOLING TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPPER FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS GENERAL TROUGHINESS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE SOUTHERN
RIDGING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, WHICH IS ALSO WHERE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEAT WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHS SUNDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
TEMPERATURES THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGHING WEAKENS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DIGGING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY PASSES
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, BUT WILL DRAG ASSOCIATED FRONTS THROUGH
OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT LIKELY MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME TUESDAY,
EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW END VFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW. IFR CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z) AS THE EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. KSWF MAY END
UP BECOMING LOW END VFR BY THIS EVENING AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 06Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL, BUT EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR A BRIEF RAIN
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. ANY CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS TODAY.
E TO SE WINDS 10KT OR LESS TODAY. SOME TERMINALS MAY START OUT
NE, THEN SHIFT TO E AND SE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE E AND NE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR VISIBILITY.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY
VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD AND LACK OF A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER RIP CURRENT
RISK ALONG NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STRUCTURES LIKE JETTIES AND
GROINS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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