321
FXUS61 KOKX 120554
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
154 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
1. FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
2. INCREASED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS, BUT HIGHER MIN RH VALUES (30-40%) THAN
SATURDAY.
2. FROST CONDITIONS FOR E LI, COASTAL SE CT, N WESTCHESTER,
ROCKLAND, AND W PASSAIC COUNTIES TONIGHT.
3. UNSEASONABLY MILD/WARM (10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) ON MONDAY
WITH SW WINDS GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH LIKELY ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR IN THE AFT/EVE.
4. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP NEXT WEEK,
PEAKING DURING THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
A RETURN FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 50S ON SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS
SUNDAY AM, WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING S/SE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE S/SE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MIN RH VALUES IN
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE, AND MOISTEN LOW-LEVEL DURING STRONGEST
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
FROST FORMATION ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS. WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE
AREA NOW INCLUDED IN THE GROWING SEASON (BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGICAL FIRST FREEZE), A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
E LI, SE COASTAL CT, N WESTCHESTER, ROCKLAND, AND W PASSAIC
COUNTIES. FROST COULD HARM SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION, WHICH
MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A MORE DISTINCT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MON AM
(ISO-SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE) WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHING/ENTERING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURES (45-50 KT LLJ AT
850HPA) WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ
METRO AND INTERIOR, AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME 45-50 MPH GUSTS IF
HEATING/MIXING IS BETTER THAN EXPECTED AND ALLOWS FOR MIXING
DOWN FROM TOP OF MIXED LAYER. LIMITING FACTOR FOR MIXING TO TOP
OF MIXED LAYER WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. IN ADDITION, ISO-SCT SHOWER
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE IN AFT/EVE WITH APPROACHING FORCING,
THETA-E ADVECTION AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
DESPITE CLOUD COVER, STRONG WAA (850 HPA TEMPS 12-14C), AND
MODEST MIXING SHOULD HAVE TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR NE
NJ, WELL INTO THE 70S FOR NYC METRO (AWAY FROM S COASTS) AND
INTERIOR LOCAL TRI-STATE. FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL
AREAS, MARITIME INFLUENCE OFF STILL MID 40 DEGREE OCEAN WATERS
SHOULD LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. LIKELY IN
THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE OCEANFRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 4
IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMTH MID WEEK. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
A CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE A WARM, DEEP-LAYEED
WSW FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NBM BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS
ARE GENERALLY AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE MEDIAN (50TH PERCENTILE), IS RIGHT
SKEWED, TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE EXPERIMENTAL
NBM 5.0 IS ALSO A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL. THE WARMER SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE, AND EVEN HAS
METRO NE NJ WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AROUND 90. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND RECORD BREAKING FOR A FEW
OF THE CLIMATE SITES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). THE RECORDS
GOING INTO THIS TIMEFRAME ARE QUITE HIGH, GETTING INTO THE HEAT
WAVE OF 2002. SEVERAL CLIMATE SITES FROM APRIL 16-18, 2002,
REACHED 90 OR HIGHER FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. DON'T SEE THAT
HAPPENING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN EVEN LONGER PERIOD OF DAYS WITH RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
WHERE THIS FORECAST COULD GO WRONG IS WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE MIDWEEK AND
AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, ANY CONVECTION MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE OF LOW PROBABILITY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MUCH OF TODAY, BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY, WITH THE 30 HR TAF TERMINALS HAVING
A CHANCE AT EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A LIGHT SE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING, THEN WINDS BECOME MORE
S AND SSE IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10KT AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. S
WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR INITIALLY, POSSIBLY GIVING WAY TO MVFR
TOWARDS MORNING. S TO SSW WINDS, WITH POSSIBLE LLWS AT 220/45 KTS
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING.
MONDAY: MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY AND LATE. SW WINDS
GUSTING 20-25KT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, BEST CHANCES INLAND, WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SOUTHERLY 20-25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE AT ENTRANCE TO NY HARBOR AND ADJACENT NEAR SHORE WATERS
WITH SEABREEZE ENHANCED S/SE WINDS.
A STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW MAY BRING MARGINAL SCA GUSTS AND MORE
LIKELY BUILDING SCA SEAS (4-6 FT) TO THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. SCA GUSTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NY
HARBOR AND WESTERN LI SOUND MON AFT/EVE WITH DEEPER MIXING
(LOW POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL GALE GUSTS), WITH MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR REMAINDER OF NEARSHORE WATERS.
GUSTS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA MONDAY NIGHT. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATER WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS (PARTICULARLY EAST
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET) MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY NEAR SCA
LEVELS(3-5FT) THRU MIDWEEK WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BE REACHED:
WED APRIL 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069-070-079-
081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NV/DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/NV/DW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page