759
FXUS61 KOKX 121421
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
921 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1)DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
2) A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENTUALLY BRINGING A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS LATER
THIS WEEK.
3) CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY
ACCUMULATING. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SO DETAILS ARE QUITE
UNCERTAIN.
4) A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND. AGAIN, LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST WITH DETAILS BEING QUITE UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY,
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MID WEEK. WITH A PACIFIC AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK, EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY INCREASES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WON'T BE UNTIL THE SECOND COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN COLDER AND MORE WINTER
LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THIS KEY MESSAGE IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FOR BASICALLY A CHANCE OF SNOW, POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING. POPS
MOSTLY NEAR 30 TO 50 PERCENT.
DEEP TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE PRETTY MUCH PURELY
SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACCOUNTING FOR WET BULB COOLING. POPS ARE MOSTLY IN
THE CHANCE RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 4
THIS KEY MESSAGE IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF THE WEEKEND AND IS WHEN
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR, AGAIN MOST OF IT IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. POPS MOSTLY NEAR 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
ALOFT ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES IN BUT MORE MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS AS WELL AS SURFACE LOWS. THE MODEL VARIABILITY IS GREATER
IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITIONS OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. POPS ARE CLOSER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT, BUT AGAIN
PRESENTS MORE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION WITH AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB COOLING.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO
THE SOUTH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KT TO START WILL BECOME FREQUENT THE REST
OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM THE
WNW TO THE W-WSW. GUSTS END THIS EVENING 23-03Z WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS BECOMING 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY START OUT OCCASIONAL, BUT BECOME FREQUENT AFTER 16Z.
END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 15 KT.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 15 KT EARLY, SUBSIDING.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DEVELOPING IN AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING AT
NIGHT.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY, TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO
IFR EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. TOWARDS LATE
IN THE DAY MOST OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN
LIKELY CONTINUING WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING, WITH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN LIKELY FALLING BELOW CRITERIA LATE
TONIGHT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH A SW FLOW INCREASES LATER IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, AND
POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF LI
SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER OUT ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS DURING A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCA BECOMES MORE PROBABLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
LINGERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
335-338-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ332-
345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
DISCUSSION...BC/JE/JM
AVIATION...JM/DS
MARINE...JE/JM
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