709
FXUS61 KOKX 212050
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A WINTER STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
2.) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC AND AI MODELS
REGARDING A WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES THE TREND OF GREATER PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY, HELPING TO STEER LOW
PRESSURE CLOSER TO US COMPARED TO THE DEPICTIONS OF 24+ HOURS
AGO. 12Z WEDS SUITE CONSENSUS WOULD HAVE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
PASSING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH CONNECTED TO A WEAKER LOW CENTER TO
OUR NORTHWEST MAY THEN SHIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES OF LINGERING SNOW THAN CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.
IT'S STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS ON AMOUNTS AS CHANGES IN
THE UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTING STORM TRACK WILL IMPACT
AMOUNTS, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL START TIME OF THE EVENT STILL 4
DAYS AWAY, THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRENDS TO BE
CONTINUED OR DISRUPTED. CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS, WARM AIR INTRUSION FROM A CLOSER STORM
APPROACH, AND THE PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
AND OTHER SOURCES OF ENHANCED LIFT, ARE AMONG FACTORS WILL
INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SOMETHING WHICH AT LEAST IS MORE
CERTAIN ARE COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS TO MID 20S) THROUGH THE
EVENT, AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER
SNOW TO LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATIOS. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITY FOR
GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS NOW INCREASED TO 80-90
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR THE SNOW TO BE DRIER AND POWDERY BASED ON THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS IN PLACE, BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE WORKED OUT AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLOSER.
THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE STORM TRACK, TIMING,
AND SNOW AMOUNT DETAILS WILL BE IN BETTER FOCUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
RETURN FLOW AROUND AN OFFSHORE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
LIFT A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHT, WITH ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD ENDS QUICKLY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A
COLDER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING TO AROUND 30
INLAND AND JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE COAST.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION,
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS TO AROUND 10 ACROSS THE NEW
YORK CITY METRO. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10-15 MPH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 0 TO -10, WHICH
MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
AFTER NEAR ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
THE AFTERNOON REMAINS IN A FRIGID AIRMASS. RECORDS FOR THE
LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN FOR SOME OF
THE LOCAL CLIMATE SITES ON SATURDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR THE CURRENT RECORDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S
WITH LOWS IN TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF
-SN OR -SNRA TONIGHT, MAINLY 00-06Z AT KBDR AND KGON. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 FOR THESE TERMINALS, BUT LEFT OUT
ELSEWHERE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
SW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTS SHOULD END OR BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT. THEY
THEN PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE WEST ON THURSDAY AT 25 TO 30 KT.
LLWS IS A POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LLWS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 06Z ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF -SN OR
-SNRA. IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE VSBY IMPACTS.
END TIME OF GUSTS AT KJFK, KLGA, AND KEWR THIS EVENING MAY BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. W-SW GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY: VFR. W WINDS BECOMING NW GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY: SNOW LIKELY WITH IFR AND N-NE G20KT. SNOW
ENDING LATE MONDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 25KT
EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS, THE GREAT SOUTH BAY, AND THE
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
WILL REMAIN SUB SCA-CRITERIA, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
EXPECTED.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY, AND MAY EXPAND OVER THE NON-OCEAN WATERS FOR A
PERIOD LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD THEN BRIEFLY SUBSIDE ON ALL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING ON A WEAKENING NW TO N FLOW.
LOW PRESSURE THEN BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALES ACROSS MOST, IF NOT
ALL, WATERS FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 24:
KEWR: 15/1936
KBDR: 20/2014
KNYC: 6/1882
KLGA: 18/1987
KJFK: 19/1987
KISP: 19/2014
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ332-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...FEB/JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...FEB/JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page