132
FXUS61 KOKX 141825
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
125 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WELL NW OF NYC WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
2) BREEZY AND COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WIND CHILLS SHORT
OF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL OF A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
4) MUCH COLDER AIR EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY BELOW FREEZING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC
AND LOW LEVEL JET LIFT THIS EVENING AND A SHORTWAVE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS INDICATE SNOW STARTING TO MIX IN WELL NW
OF THE CITY AND MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR DAYBREAK
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH. NOT MUCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION LEFT BY THE TIME PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER A HALF OF
AN INCH FOR WELL NW OF THE CITY WITH LIMITED IMPACTS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. DRY OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY FOR
THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD
OFFSET THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SOMEWHAT BEFORE STRONGER ADVECTION
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THURS/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE ENERGY IN THE
TROUGH IS BROAD, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR ANYTHING FROZEN, BUT SOME COLDER AIR WILL START MOVING
IN AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT MENTION OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY FROM THE NYC METRO ON
NORTH. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL
WEAK SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY WITH POTENTIAL OF
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
AMPLIFICATION/AMPLITUDE OF THE ENERGY, LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THIS LOW
TRACKING FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE AREA FOR ANY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, SOME
OF THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEST WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH
WOULD BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS
OUT AND THERE ARE MANY AREAS OF SENSITIVITY TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. FOR THIS FORECAST, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
BUMPED POPS UP TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR SHOULD BE OVER THE
AREA BY THIS TIME, SO ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS
TIME PERIOD BEARS WATCHING IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGE 4
A COLDER TEMPERATURE REGIME BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN US ALLOWING FOR ARCTIC AIR TO FUNNEL DOWN INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY POTENTIALLY NOT RISING OUT OF THE 20S.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS AT NIGHT. WHILE
IT IS A BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON WIND CHILLS, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO COMBINE WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES FOR WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 0 MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THESE DETAILS WILL BE FINE TINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH
RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT, SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF AND
KGON WHERE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR QUICKER.
MOST OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH WILL SEE ABOUT A 5-HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR
(BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE) CONDITIONS FROM 09Z-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT 1-2 HOURS OF POST-FRONTAL MVFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BACK TO SE-ESE AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL THEN VEER BACK TO THE SW LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. GUSTY WSW WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AT 15-
20KT G25-30KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION 21Z TO 09Z DUE A WEAK BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS HEADING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND ONSET OF WIND GUSTS COULD BE DELAYED 1-2 HOURS.
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: VFR. W-NW WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. W-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW.
MONDAY: VFR W WINDS GUSTS 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY,
PRIMARILY FOR SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WINDS RAMP UP ON THURSDAY.
GALES THEN EXPECTED AS EARLY AS AROUND MIDNIGHT THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, SO HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A
WARNING. FOR THE OTHER WATERS, SCA FOR 14Z THURS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SCA CONDS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS BETWEEN
5-7 FT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL PERIOD
OF SCA WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
EQUIPMENT
KOKX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...JC/DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/DS
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