793
FXUS61 KOKX 141717
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
117 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND IMPACT THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW COULD IMPACT THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATED AGAIN FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. ADDED A FEW SPRINKLES FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING ACROSS ERN NEW LONDON CT.
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY, THEN AS HEIGHTS FALL
THIS AFTN, CHANCES FOR SHWRS TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS INDICATE A WEAK FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THRU
TNGT. THE H5 LOW GETS TO ABOUT LAKE HURON BY 12Z THU, SO FORCING
IS NOT STRONG THRU TNGT. ANY RAINFALL THEREFORE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY AND TNGT. TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE MILD
TODAY, WITH THE NBM NOW SUGGESTING MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COASTS HITTING 70. THIS IS WARMER THAN THE MET AND MAV, BUT WAS
USED IN THE FCST BASED ON WLY COMPONENT LLVL FLOW AND ADDING A
FEW DEGREES TO YESTERDAY'S HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
IN RESPONSE TO THE MASSIVE H5 LOW APPROACHING FROM THE W, LOW
PRES DEVELOPS S OF LONG ISLAND ON THU. THE LOW IS BROAD AND
WEAK THU, BUT WINDS UP A BIT MORE THU NGT. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK THU NGT, TAKING IT THRU
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BY 12Z FRI. WITH THE H8 LOW TRACKING ACROSS
LONG ISLAND, THE SFC LOW SHOULD STAY INSIDE THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD TEND TO DRYSLOT MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE
THU NGT. IT WOULD ALSO KEEP SNOW ACCUMS N AS WELL. FOLLOWED WPC
FOR QPF FOR THE EVENT, WHICH IS STILL AROUND AN INCH AND A
HALF. SOME -RASN WAS ADDED FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CT, AS WELL
AS PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FOR THU NGT. THE NBM WAS
USED FOR TEMPS THU, BUT THE FCST IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE
NAM 2M DATA FOR THU NGT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
SEASONABLE, IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY.
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REMAINS WITH A SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO OUR AREA.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND.
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN BECOMING MVFR AND IFR
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE NYC METRO TERMINALS ON
WEST, BUT VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AND
BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AT
KHPN AT THIS TIME.
SW-SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEA
BREEZES. WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS NOT PASSED THROUGH, WINDS MAY
BE WSW-WNW AND LIGHT. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THEY
SETTLE TO THE S-SE. OUTLYING TERMINALS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. E FLOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BECOME ENE-NE INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LIGHT W-NW FLOW TO START TAF PERIOD AT KEWR AND KTEB SHOULD
SETTLES TO THE SW 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 19Z. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
AT KLGA 19-20Z, WITH WIND DIRECTION POSSIBLY GOING S-SE 10 KT
OR LESS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS,
POSSIBLY LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY
MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
VFR.
MONDAY
MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI MORNING, WITH THE OCEAN WATERS HOLDING ON TO THOSE
CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER. EXPECTING PEAK GUSTS 25-30 KT AND MAX
SEAS 5-7 FEET.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THRU TUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BG
AVIATION...DS
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