514  
FXUS61 KOKX 141538  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1138 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND  
INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL ON SATURDAY  
AND WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID-  
ATLANTIC. THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND IS FOLLOWED  
BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH  
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL THEREAFTER INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A COLD  
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NE FLOW WILL  
USHER IN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. AT THE SAME TIME, A WAVE OF  
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY.  
 
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE  
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND FROM THE HIGH RIDGING DOWN  
INTO THE AREA WILL PREVENT ANY SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGH  
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON LONG ISLAND BASED ON CURRENT  
TRENDS. HIGHS MAY BE REACH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, IN THE MIDDLE  
80S, BEFORE E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS LEVELING OFF ANY TEMPERATURE  
RISE. OVERALL HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE IN  
THE LOW TO MID 80S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
DRYING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PROMOTE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS  
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, BUT IS HAMPERED  
BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE COMBINATION  
OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON  
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. THIS NE-E FLOW AND  
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL ALSO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO  
THE 70S FOR SOME COASTAL SPOTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE NEAR  
NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST. MODELS HINT AT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
OVER SE CT AND THE TWIN FORKS AREA, SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF A SHOWER HERE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE  
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK  
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES. MODELS ARE INDICATING  
POSSIBLE ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY.  
TOTAL QPF FROM THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS HARD TO  
PIN DOWN AS AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE  
HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS. AT THE MOMENT MODELS ARE KEEPING THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTH  
RAIN AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW  
YORK, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ARE NOT OUT OF  
THE QUESTIONS. THIS MEANS ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE  
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RAINFALL WILL SEE  
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.  
 
THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PIVOTS  
THROUGH NEW YORK EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH  
MAY INDUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK, BUT PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES HOVER AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS IN THIS  
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE TROUGH AXIS EXITS  
NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK, LOCALLY LONG RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME  
SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGE FROM A POSSIBLE 1017 MB HIGH ABOVE  
PENNSYLVANIA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM BUT  
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY.  
MORE CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD PERSIST IN THE LOW  
80S THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE  
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH.  
 
WINDS NE-E UNDER 10 KT AT MOST INLAND SITES, AND AROUND OR JUST  
OVER 10 KT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE NE AND  
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KJFK HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN, WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY P6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KLGA HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN, WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY P6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN, WHICH  
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY P6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
   
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
   
SATURDAY
 
VFR. E WINDS 10-15G20KT.    
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
 
MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
INCREASING E FLOW SHOULD BRING SCA CONDS TO THE OCEAN WATERS FROM  
LATE EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO  
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. WIND GUSTS SHOULD  
PEAK JUST OVER 30 KT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET DAYTIME SAT, WHILE SEA  
PEAK AT 6-8 FT.  
 
LINGERING MARGINAL SCA CONDS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS E FLOW PERSISTS.  
SUB SCA CONDS MAY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY BUT THIS REMAINS  
UNCERTAIN. SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS 5-10 KTS  
OTHERWISE BEGIN TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE OF  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVES SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN  
NEW YORK. QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER  
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING  
COULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY IN  
URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT  
SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JC  
NEAR TERM...JC/DS  
SHORT TERM...JC  
LONG TERM...DJ  
AVIATION...MET  
MARINE...GOODMAN  
HYDROLOGY...JC/DJ  
 
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