650
FXUS61 KOKX 121130
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
630 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEARBY AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES
LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FROM ALONG
THE FRONT AND MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH, THEN EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, AND LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* DRY AND COLD.
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COLD START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE A
LITTLE, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY
DESPITE SUNSHINE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BRISK DAY IS ON TAP WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 10 TO THE TEENS ALL DAY AND WITH A WEST WIND
GUSTING MAINLY AT 20 TO 25 MPH IT WILL FEEL LIKE IT IS IN THE 20S
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT LIGHTER WINDS SET UP WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO
THE LOWER 20S IN MOST SPOTS, WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS TO THE NW, AND
UPPER 20S IN THE NYC METRO. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN LATE AT NIGHT
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
DURING SATURDAY THE WINDS BECOME MORE WSW WHICH HELPS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 40 IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH MAINLY UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL WORK IN WITH SHEARING OUT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY, WITH MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. A POTENT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW INCREASING LATER IN THE
EVENING, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. PROFILES APPEAR MAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY ALL SNOW
REGION WIDE, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AT ONSET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. LATEST BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A COLD PROFILE OVERALL, AND WITH HIGH RH
WITH OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. WHILE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS MODEST AT BEST DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN,
THE MAIN QUESTION PERTAINS TO SNOW RATIOS. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
DENDRITIC SNOW POTENTIAL SNOW RATIOS COULD BE HIGHER THAN USUAL.
DIDN'T GO WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW RATIOS OF THE NBM, BUT TEMPERED
THEM SLIGHTLY DOWN CLOSER TO 13:1 OR SO INITIALLY, AND THEN CLOSER
TO 15:1 AT THE END OF THE EVENT, BUT OVERALL SHOULD DO BETTER THAN
THE MORE TYPICALLY 10:1 RATIO FOR OUR REGION. THE STEADIEST SNOW
LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE TOWARDS OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY FROM 06Z TO 12Z, AND MORE LIKE 08Z TO 15Z FURTHER
SOUTH EAST.
THE PVA SHOULD SHOULD SHUT OFF JUST AFTER 12Z FURTHER WEST, AND JUST
AFTER 15Z-17Z FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL END THE SNOWFALL AS THE FRONT
WORKS THROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS TO MAX OUT AND DRY OUT THE
COLUMN FOR TOWARDS MID DAY AND THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS ARE FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND, CLOSER
TO 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS INTO COASTAL CT MOST OF METRO NE NJ, AND NYC,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FURTHER NW. IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS
DOWN OR SPEEDS UP THESE AMOUNTS COULD CHANGE. AFTER COLLABORATION
HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME
BEING, AND WAITING FOR CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE A BIT MORE BEFORE
ISSUING. THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
DRY AND MUCH COLDER AIR COMES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS AIR MASS SHOULD EDGE OUT PREVIOUS COLD AIR MASSES SO FAR THIS
SEASON WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LIKELY TAKING PLACE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY
GETTING AS COLD AS -14 TO -16 C. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOW
TEMPERATURES GETTING SOLIDLY INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION, AND CLOSE TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS TOWARDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL GET
PRIMARILY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, TO AROUND 0 ACROSS NORTHERN MOST
SECTIONS ON A GUSTY NW WIND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NBM WAS FOLLOWED WITH ONLY SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS ON
MONDAY.
KEY POINTS:
* WARMING, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GETTING ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. NO COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES EXPECTED.
* RAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
SO FAR IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER
CHANCE AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. WNW WINDS 10-15KT GUSTING 20-25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS ENDING AS THE DIRECTION BACKS
MORE TOWARDS WSW.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT FROM THE WSW POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SNOW MOVING IN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR, POSSIBLY LIFR LATE AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR TO IFR, POSSIBLY LIFR AT TIMES, IN SNOW, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VFR
RETURNING. NW WINDS GUST AROUND 25KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30KT.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT. GUSTS LOWER AT NIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MOST OF THE WATERS TODAY, WITH
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE WESTERN NON-OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ON THE OCEAN ON SATURDAY DESPITE AN INCREASING WSW FLOW REGIME WITH
OCEAN SEAS AT MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT. THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL WATERS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PERIOD
OF GALES ON THE OCEAN MAY FOLLOW DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME
GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN MONDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE, WINDS
DIMINISH, BUT REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL
A THREAT OF 25KT WINDS AND/OR ELEVATED SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ALL WATERS ARE FINALLY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345-350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-
338-355.
SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE
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