349
FXUS61 KOKX 041502
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1002 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING CLIPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EAST LATE THIS
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CLIPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH, FINALLY LIFTING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE NORTH DURING MID WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING IN THEREAFTER. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS HAS RESULTED IN
LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS CONFINED TO THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND. SOME SPOTS ACROSS INLAND FAIRFIELD/NEW HAVEN PICKED UP
1.0-1.5 INCHES ACCUMULATION, WITH LESSER AMTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND BACK INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SNOW SHOULD
END ON THE FORKS BY 16Z. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN MOST PLACES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINT:
* ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING ALONG AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUGH OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FCST THINKING WITH THE NBM FOLLOWED THRU
MON NGT.
COLD TNGT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA MON AFTN AND
EVE. THE NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IS AGAIN FAVORED FOR THE STEADIEST
PCPN. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE EVENT, WITH ACCUMULATION ONLY A DUSTING IN MOST
PLACES, MAYBE CLOSER TO AN INCH WELL INLAND. PRECIP COULD END AS
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MON NIGHT AS MID LEVELS DRY
OUT, PRECIP TAPERS OFF, AND AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND LOCKS
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR.
HIGHS ON MON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND, TO THE LOWER/MID
30S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MON NIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S INVOF
NYC TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
* A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE
BY SATURDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AND FCST. THE NBM
WAS FOLLOWED.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL COME
AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT. WITH A STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT THE PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY FALL AS LIQUID AND BE ABLE TO FREEZE ON THE SURFACE.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET, BUT THIS WAS LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK ICE
ACCRETION AMOUNTS, BUT QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
AFTER THAT, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ALL PLAIN RAIN FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON, SNOWFALL HAS ENDED. KGON WILL JUST HAVE
SOME SNOW FLURRIES CLOSING OUT THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS OVERALL
ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS THIS MORNING 10 KT OR LESS, BACKING TO THE WNW THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS OF 15-18KT ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THESE MAY
VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE. SNOW ENDS LATE AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR DURING THE DAY. MVFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE RAIN AND MVFR, MAINLY EARLY.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THU. OCEAN
SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT WED NGT/THU BEHIND A FRONTAL SYS,
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE MODELED TO REMAIN BLW 25 KT.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG
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