225  
FXUS61 KOKX 151808  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
208 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH  
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH  
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON  
SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON  
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND POPS WITH THE AFTERNOON  
UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS. OTHERWISE,  
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. PROBABILITIES  
FOR RAIN HAVE DECREASE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN WITH THE  
REGION WARM SECTORED AND THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE  
DAY AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD  
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH THE COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. SOME OF THE WIND FROM THE 35-45 KT LLJ COULD MIX DOWN  
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVE. HIGHEST RAINFALL SHOULD  
BE ACROSS LONG ISLAND WHERE INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGEST PART  
OF THE LLJ WILL OCCUR.  
 
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH THIS  
AFTN AND EVE, HIGHEST AT THE COAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS  
STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S  
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
 
 
RAIN SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS  
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
IN FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING  
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE US. AT THE SURFACE, LOW  
PRESSURE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD  
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL  
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DRY. BEHIND THE  
FRONT, THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS INCREASE AND  
BECOME MORE NW.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE  
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD  
FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA  
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO  
THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND.  
 
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER  
60S, THEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES  
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW  
THIS EVENING, WITH TIMING FROM 02Z NORTHWEST AT KSWF, TO 03Z-04Z  
NYC METRO, TO 06Z EAST.  
 
MVFR CIGS WITH SOME PATCHES OF IFR AT KEWR/KISP/KHPN/KGON,  
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, WITH VFR  
EXPECTED AT THE NYC METROS BY ABOUT 22Z. AT THAT TIME, S WINDS  
THAT HAVE BEEN GUSTING ON THE OCCASIONAL SIDE TODAY SHOULD VEER  
SW AND GUST MORE FREQUENTLY INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAIN CHANGES LATER ON ARE TO INCLUDE  
TEMPO FOR THUNDER WITH GUSTY WINDS AND IFR VSBY AT MOST SITES  
FOR 1-2 HRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WIND  
GUSTS TO 30-35 KT ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A FEW HOURS, HIGHEST AT  
THE NYC METROS. MOST SITES SHOULD GO QUICKLY VFR AFTER THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. EXPECT DIMINISHING NW WINDS LATE  
TONIGHT, SETTLING IN AROUND OR JUST OVER 10 KT BY 12Z TUE.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT  
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW  
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT  
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW  
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT  
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW  
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT  
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW  
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT  
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW  
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: NEAR TERM AMD POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE FLIGHT  
CAT. GUSTS IN TSTMS AND AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT COULD BE A FEW  
KT HIGHER THAN FCST.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
   
TUESDAY
 
VFR.    
WEDNESDAY
 
VFR. WNW WINDS G25-30KT AFTER 18Z, PEAK G35KT  
POSSIBLE.    
THURSDAY
 
VFR. NW WINDS G20-25 KT, MOSTLY MORNING.   
FRIDAY
 
VFR.    
SATURDAY
 
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 35-45 KT LLJ THIS EVENING AS  
WELL AS STRONG CAA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL RESULT  
IN GALE CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT NY HARBOR FOR TONIGHT,  
THEREFORE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH  
TUESDAY MORNING. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUE MORNING, FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS, AS WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH.  
 
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TO SCA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE  
WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE  
FORCE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA  
LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD BACK TO SCA LEVELS  
LATE FRIDAY AND REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH  
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WATERS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
BETWEEN 1/4 AND 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH  
TONIGHT. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR  
DRAINAGE AREAS THIS EVENING, NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ338.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-  
335-340-345-350-353-355.  
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR  
ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
 
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