369  
FXUS61 KOKX 181102  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
702 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO MID WEEK,  
AND IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS  
UPDATE.  
 
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST TODAY AND ADDITIONAL  
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDE AND INCREASED DAYTIME  
HEATING, SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK 850  
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SO, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS  
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY  
RISE LATE IN THE DAY. SEVERAL CAMS SHOW SHOWERS ENOUGH SHOWER  
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG  
ISLAND TO WARRANT LOW END CHANCE POPS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF  
THESE SHOWERS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40  
MPH. AGAIN, THIS WOULD BE FOR THOSE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN  
AREAS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL  
NORMALS AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FILTER IN COOLER  
AIR.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER  
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CANADIAN  
MARITIMES AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN  
STATES.  
 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TUE-WED AND THE NBM WAS  
FOLLOWED. HIGH PRES SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING  
HEIGHTS WILL PRODUCE MILD AND DRY WX TUE AND WED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS ON THU, BUT SHWRS  
ARE PROGGED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NGT. CHANCES FOR SHWRS THRU  
FRI WITH THE FROPA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES THRU THE FIRST PART OF  
THE DAY FRI PER THE 12Z MODEL TIMING OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL  
TROF MAY SHUNT THE MOISTURE OFFSHORE THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI,  
KEEPING THE ACTUAL FROPA DRY. TOO FAR OUT TO BE CONFIDENT IN ANY  
OF THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THOUGH.  
 
COLDER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN  
COLDER. THE GFS IS NOW DOWN TO -6C AT H85 ON SUN. AS A RESULT,  
THE FCST WAS BLENDED TOWARDS THE COLDER MEX GUIDANCE THRU THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MAINLY VFR AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THIS MORNING, AND  
MOVES ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING A RETURN OF BKN  
CIGS AT KSWF AND THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGHOUT BY ABOUT  
13Z AT MOST SITES. THIS MORNING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS, A  
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, IMPACTING MAINLY THE  
CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS, AND CIGS THERE MAY ALSO LOWER CLOSE  
TO MVFR THRESHOLDS DURING THAT TIME. CLEARING SKIES THIS  
EVENING.  
 
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE MON AM AFTER ABOUT 14Z AND VEER NW,  
SUSTAINED 15-20 KT AND GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 25 KT. WINDS  
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
   
LATE MONDAY NIGHT
 
VFR.    
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
 
VFR.   
FRIDAY
 
MVFR WITH ANY MORNING SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT  
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON ALL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH  
TONIGHT AS A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW CONTINUES  
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE  
ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY FALL  
BELOW 25 KT THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND, PORTIONS OF THE  
CENTRAL SOUND, PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS AND THE EASTERN OCEAN  
ZONE MAY BRIEFLY BRING GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT.  
 
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LVLS ON TUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTER OCEAN ZONE, SO SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY FOR  
THESES AREAS. HOWEVER, WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN ZONE WILL  
DECREASE ENOUGH ON TUE THAT THE SCA WAS NOT EXPANDED HERE.  
 
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE CLOSE TO 5 FT BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY,  
ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ON THU AHEAD OF A  
COLD FRONT WITH A SCA POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. A COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN NEAR SCA LVLS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET  
NEAR TERM...JP  
SHORT TERM...MET  
LONG TERM...JMC  
AVIATION...BG  
MARINE...JMC/MET  
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET  
 
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