382
FXUS61 KOKX 102356
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
656 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED, AND NOW ALSO
INCLUDES NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE BRONX AND NORTHERN QUEENS IN
NYC, AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF LONG ISLAND.
PROBABILITIES HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR THE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
POTENTIAL STORM EVENT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
2) TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
3) THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, AND PROBABILITIES
HAVE TRENDED LOWER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HAVE CHOSEN TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NEW YORK CITY, THE NORTHERN HALF OF LONG ISLAND, AND ALL OF
NE NJ FOR MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS AS TO WHETHER IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH
TO CAUSE IMPACTS, EVEN IF THEY ARE MINOR ACROSS THE EXPANDED
ADVISORY ZONES. FOR THE NYC METRO IT WILL BE MARGINAL AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES SENSORS HAVE COME IN WARMER THAN EXPECTED DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO URBAN EFFECTS HAVE HELD OFF
ON INCLUDING MANHATTAN AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE 5 BOROUGHS FROM THE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE THE GROUND
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ELSEWHERE SO THAT EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD CAUSE A LIGHT GLAZE. THE EVENING HOURS
SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD START
OFF AS SNOW FURTHER NORTH, OTHERWISE IT STARTS AS VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX AND QUICKLY GOES TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT
WORKS IN GETTING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND UP TOWARDS 4-5 KFT AGL. THE SFC
ADVECTION REMAINS WEAK AND WITH LOW DEWPOINT READINGS THOUGHT
IT PRUDENT TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOME. THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
ZONES SHOULD STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH AT GROUND LEVEL TO BE
PRIMARILY PLAIN DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHERN ZONES MAY GET
ADDED TO THE ADVISORY IF OBS/CONDITIONS WARRANT. THIS WILL NOT
BE AN ACCUMULATING TYPE WINTER EVENT AS THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND
LIFT WILL BE WEAK. ALSO IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT LOCATIONS ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY ACTUALLY
STRUGGLE TO SQUEEZE OUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER,
CRITERIA FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ONLY FOR A TRACE OF
FREEZING RAIN, THUS THE ADVISORY FOR EVEN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY TRENDING BACK TO NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
AND IN THE LOWER/MID 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NBM PROBABILITIES
HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES, AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST US FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST US AND THEN RIDES UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. AT THE SURFACE A REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND SUPPRESSES THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AS THE
LOW REACHES THE EAST COAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM, WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW AND/OR RAIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS ABOUT A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW TONIGHT FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FROM 03Z-08Z. MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL OCCUR FOR INLAND AND S CT TERMINALS ALONG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN AT KHPN/KSWF. FOR
KEW/KTEB/KLGA, THERE MAY BE A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
LIGHT RAIN DUE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 32
DEGREES. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE. HAVE SIDED WITH PLAIN
RAIN AT KJFK/KISP WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
ANY PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 05Z-08Z,
WITH VFR COND.
LIGHT S-SSE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BECOME VARIABLE OR
EVEN ENE AT KBDR/KLGA AS PRECIP ARRIVES. AFTER PRECIP ENDS,
WINDS SHOULD BECOME WNW LESS THAN 10 KT, THEN INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT, BECOMING WNW-NW WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AFTER 14Z. GUSTS
25-30 KT LIKELY WED AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT FROM 03Z-06Z COULD PREVAIL AS LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR KLGA/KEWR/KTEB IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL
WITH ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE OF SNOW INLAND AND EITHER
SNOW/RAIN AT THE NYC METROS/COAST AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ON PRIMARILY A
LIGHT S FLOW. WINDS BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE W DIRECTION
TOWARDS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MORNING. SCA COND WILL THEN
DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID MORNING WED ON ALL WATERS, AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY THU. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO GALE FORCE IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCA COND
COULD LAST INTO THU NIGHT ON THE OCEAN.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BEGINNING FRIDAY,
AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT: IF
THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH, THEN WIND GUSTS ON
THE OCEAN WILL BE NEAR SCA LEVELS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP THE LOW TRACK FARTHER SOUTH.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
CTZ005>007-009>011.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ067>071-073-078-079-176-177.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JE/MET
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JE/MET
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