514
FXUS61 KOKX 141538
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1138 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL ON SATURDAY
AND WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND IS FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL THEREAFTER INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS A COLD
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NE FLOW WILL
USHER IN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. AT THE SAME TIME, A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND FROM THE HIGH RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE AREA WILL PREVENT ANY SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON LONG ISLAND BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. HIGHS MAY BE REACH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, IN THE MIDDLE
80S, BEFORE E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS LEVELING OFF ANY TEMPERATURE
RISE. OVERALL HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
DRYING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PROMOTE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, BUT IS HAMPERED
BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. THIS NE-E FLOW AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL ALSO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S FOR SOME COASTAL SPOTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE NEAR
NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST. MODELS HINT AT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SE CT AND THE TWIN FORKS AREA, SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER HERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO SOUTHERN NEW YORK
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES. MODELS ARE INDICATING
POSSIBLE ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY.
TOTAL QPF FROM THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS HARD TO
PIN DOWN AS AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS. AT THE MOMENT MODELS ARE KEEPING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTH
RAIN AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
YORK, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTIONS. THIS MEANS ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND. AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RAINFALL WILL SEE
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.
THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PIVOTS
THROUGH NEW YORK EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH
MAY INDUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK, BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVER AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. ANY SHOWERS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE TROUGH AXIS EXITS
NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK, LOCALLY LONG RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
SLIGHT SURFACE RIDGE FROM A POSSIBLE 1017 MB HIGH ABOVE
PENNSYLVANIA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM BUT
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WHETHER OR NOT THIS HOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MORE CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD PERSIST IN THE LOW
80S THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH.
WINDS NE-E UNDER 10 KT AT MOST INLAND SITES, AND AROUND OR JUST
OVER 10 KT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE NE AND
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KJFK HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN, WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY P6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KLGA HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN, WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY P6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN, WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY P6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS.
KISP TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY
VFR. E WINDS 10-15G20KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
VFR.
MARINE
INCREASING E FLOW SHOULD BRING SCA CONDS TO THE OCEAN WATERS FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
PEAK JUST OVER 30 KT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET DAYTIME SAT, WHILE SEA
PEAK AT 6-8 FT.
LINGERING MARGINAL SCA CONDS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS E FLOW PERSISTS.
SUB SCA CONDS MAY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY BUT THIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS 5-10 KTS
OTHERWISE BEGIN TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVES SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN
NEW YORK. QPF VALUES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY IN
URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JC/DJ
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