486
FXUS61 KOKX 260311
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1011 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND LATE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY APPEARS WEAKER AND LESS IMPACTFUL, WITH
SNOW CHANCES NOW LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
2) A LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES HAVE DECREASED FOR
MEANINGFUL SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
3) COLDER WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM
THE END OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BASED ON UPSTREAM RADARS AND LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME MINIMAL
FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT, ADDED
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ACCUMULATIONS NO MORE THAN A DUSTING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WHICH WOULD DRIVE PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY APPEARS MORE SHEARED AND WEAKER. MOST OF
THE NWP AND AI GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE NOW OF JUST SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW PERHAPS GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA, AND A LOT OF GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
REGION REMAINING DRY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THERE
IS NO TO VERY LITTLE INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM IMPULSES. IF THE SYSTEM DID GET FARTHER NORTH AND WITH
MOST PRECIP TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL LIKELIHOOD.
THEREFORE EVEN IF PRECIP DID GET FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE THE SNOW WOULD LIKELY
HAVE DIFFICULTY STICKING WITH IMPACTS APPEARING MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO HEAD
OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW IS
FAST AND SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY SUNDAY.
QPF WITH THE FRONT IS RATHER MEAGER, AROUND 0.1" BASED ON NBM
AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE. PTYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW GIVEN THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE 520S AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO -10C TO -15C. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY,
THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THESE BECOME MORE SQUALL LIKE IN
NATURE GIVEN A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS; THOUGH
THE BETTER LIFT EXISTS WITH THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MAXIMIZED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH IS NOT TOO
UNEXPECTED GIVEN THAT IT'S STILL 5-6 DAYS OUT. THE AREA REMAINS ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, FOR MOST GUIDANCE, WHICH
SUGGESTS AN ALL SNOW EVENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TOTAL QPF FROM THE 12Z GEFS HAS TICKED UP A BIT (~0.6-0.65") WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS QPF FOR THE AREA THAN IN
PRIOR RUNS. LATEST NBM SHOWS ABOUT A 30% OF MORE THAN 2" OF SNOWFALL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LEAVING THE AREA
AND THIS WAVE LIKELY MOVING FARTHER NORTH, THIS WOULD INDICATE MORE
OF A FRONT END SNOW CHANGING OVER OVER TO RAIN. HOWEVER, BEING OVER
A WEEK OUT, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
VFR. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DRY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW QUICK MOVING LIGHT SHSN
OR FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY AT KSWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KEWR THROUGH
KISP, AND INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS, KJFK MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR VISIBILITY.
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT, AND AT TIME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THROUGH
THE FORECAST. S THIS EVENING, BECOMING SW, THEN W/WNW LATE
TONIGHT, AND NW TO NNW THURSDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FROPA.
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THU AFTERNOON SNOW CHANCES, INCLUDED A TEMPO.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ATTM DUE TO LOW RATES AND
TEMPS AOA FREEZING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. LIGHT N FLOW.
FRIDAY: VFR WITH SW FLOW.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHSN. N/NW WINDS.
MONDAY: LOW PRES MAY BRING MVFR OR LOWER IN SN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS WERE RUNNING UP TO 1 FT ABOVE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN, SO
HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE OCEAN, ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT,
E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THROUGH DAYTIME THU, AND E OF MORICHES
INLET INTO THU EVENING. SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON THE NON
OCEAN WATERS AS GUSTS IN SW FLOW HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THEREAFTER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SCA CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR THE OCEAN LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JE/GOODMAN/DBR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/GOODMAN/DBR
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