419
FXUS61 KOKX 042032
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIDES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, EXITING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO BEGIN NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH. AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS WIND TO RELAX AND BECOME CALM. THIS
ALLOWS FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
THIS EVENING WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER
TEENS FOR INTERIOR AND TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. COASTAL LOCATIONS
AND THE NYC METRO WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY,
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS SLOW INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
NEAR 50, ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
S/SE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON
MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THERE TO BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF MOISTURE MOVES IN QUICKER, SOME COOLER
SPOTS IN ORANGE COUNTY MAY HAVE A MIX OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER
COMPLETELY TO RAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S FOR INTERIOR
AREAS TO THE NORTH. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
POLAR VORTEX REMAINS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WELL TO ITS EAST WILL HELP SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX WILL HELP DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST, AND REMAIN WEAK AS IT
RUNS INTO THE RIDGING TO THE EAST.
RAIN SPREADS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING
TUESDAY AND WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT OUT EAST DUE TO THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST. RAIN THEREFORE REMAINS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ALLOWED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE POLAR VORTEX ALONG WITH A
SPOKE OF ENERGY SHIFT NORTH AND ALLOW A CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTS NE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THEN
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES TO SUPPRESS THE SYSTEM. STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REACH. NBM'S SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM A FAIR COMPROMISE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP TYPE THIS FAR OUT WITH GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THIS PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT. A WINTRY MIX MAY HOWEVER EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR
INTRODUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS
THE THREAT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING TOWARD US FROM EAST AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THINKING IS THAT MOST OF
THE WEEKEND IS DRY, BUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN EXISTS AT
TIMES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE
MONDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NW TO W WINDS LESS THAN 10KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXCEPT LIGHT WESTERLY AT THE NYC TERMINALS.
MONDAY MORNING WINDS BECOME SW LESS THAN 10KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN, EXCEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KSWF.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
MVFR WITH RAIN. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY
VFR.
FRIDAY
MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, RAIN/SNOW INLAND IN THE
MORNING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE WATERS AND WIND REMAINS BELOW
CRITERIA.
AN ONSHORE FLOW OF AROUND 15 KT WILL PREVAIL ON THE OCEAN WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. IT MIGHT NOT BE
UNTIL ENOUGH SWELL IS GENERATED AT SOME POINT TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE
SEAS PREVAIL OVER 5 FT AND LAST INTO A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH SUBSIDING SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. NE WINDS THEN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD SEE SUB-CRITERIA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
MOSTLY 1 TO 1 1/2" OF RAINFALL LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
REASONABLE WORST CASE AT THIS POINT AROUND 2" OF RAIN IN 48 HRS, BUT
NOT SEEING SIGNAL FOR MORE THAN 3/4" IN 6 HRS. EVEN LOWEST HEADWATER
GUIDANCES ACROSS NE NJ WOULD REQUIRE 1 1/2" IN 6 HRS AND 2" IN 12 HR
FOR MINOR FLOODING. SO WITH THE LONG DURATION OF THIS RAINFALL AND
MANAGEABLE HOURLY/6 HOURLY RATES, ONLY LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING
CONCERNS EXIST DUE TO LEAF-CLOGGED DRAINAGES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAYS OF W LI (AS LOW AS 1 FT OF SURGE NEEDED) WITH THE
WED MORNING HIGH TIDES DUE TO A PERSISTENT SE FLOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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