470
FXUS61 KOKX 190521
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
121 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST REGION. AIRMASS GETTING
RELATIVELY MORE HUMID ALSO HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. HEAT ADVISORY
NE NJ AND NYC TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EARLY
EVENING.
2) POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITY.
3) MUCH COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
4) COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH GOOD
BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SW WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A FEW HOURS LATER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THEREBY ALLOWING
FOR MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND LESS CLOUDS.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR NE NJ AND NYC METRO 11AM TUESDAY TO 8PM
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST HIGH HEAT INDEX EVENT OF THE YEAR
FOR NE NJ AND NYC.
WARMEST DAY TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW AND DAYTIME MIXING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S FOR ALL OF NYC, NE NJ, LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AS WELL AS MUCH OF
NASSAU COUNTY NY. MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH
NE NJ AND NYC METRO FOR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES. DEWPOINTS
ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 60S TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES FOR BROOKLYN AND QUEENS BUT STILL
GETTING IN THE MID 90S ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THOSE ZONES.
THIS SAME DISTRIBUTION EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE. THE
DEWPOINTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SO FOR WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT DEWPOINTS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY
FOR MUCH OF NE NJ AND NYC WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDICES IN THE
MID 90S. AGAIN, SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES FOR BROOKLYN AND QUEENS BUT STILL GETTING IN THE MID 90S
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THERE IS SOME INDICATION WITHIN THE FORECAST MODELS SHOWING A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
POSSIBILITY TOO FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, WITH QUICK
DOWNBURST OF WIND. THIS IS JUST MARGINAL RISK. CAMS INDICATE
THIS POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN FIRST FOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN CT LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
CROSSES THROUGH THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS BY EARLY
EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. FLOODING THREAT MINIMAL WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND QUICK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER, A QUICK PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
MID LEVEL RIDGE SUPPRESSED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY BUT THEN MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN ITS PLACE, LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. MODEL VARIANCES ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE LOW REACHES.
MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST DECREASE BY NEAR 15 TO 20 DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW PRESENTS
DOWNSLOPE WARMING FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO BE RELATIVELY WARMER THAN INLAND.
COOLING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AND THEN JUST LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY REALLY
LIMITING THE DAYTIME WARMTH WITH MORE MARITIME INFLUENCE. ALONG
WITH THAT ASIDE FROM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
BE MAINLY DRY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
FARTHER AWAY AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 4
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES
OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
TERMINALS INTO WEDNESDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NW OF THE NYC METRO. CONFIDENCE
IN THE OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SSW-SW WINDS UNDER 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MID
TO LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW COASTAL TERMINALS
POTENTIALLY SEEING GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS WILL
END UP OCCASIONAL. ANY GUSTS SHOULD END AROUND 00Z WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY END UP OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY WEST OF
THE NYC TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TONIGHT: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT
KGON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR, GIVING WAY TO POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. S/SW WINDS
GUSTS 20-25KT DAY INTO EVE. NW WINDSHIFT IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
ENDING.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. E-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SCA ON THE OCEAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MARGINAL SCA FOR NON-
OCEAN WATERS BUT MOSTLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY BELOW SCA
THEREAFTER UNTIL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHEN SCA CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY RETURN.
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES
OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 19:
KEWR: 98/1962
KBDR: 89/2017
KNYC: 99/1962
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 89/2017
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 19:
KEWR: 67/1986
KBDR: 66/2017
KNYC: 68/1986
KLGA: 68/2017
KJFK: 67/2017
KISP: 65/2017
MAY 20:
KEWR: 72/1996
KBDR: 61/2019
KNYC: 74/1996
KLGA: 77/1996
KJFK: 63/1996
KISP: 62/1996
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM
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