293  
FXUS61 KOKX 040050  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
850 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, PASSING SLOWLY ACROSS  
THE AREA TUESDAY OR EVEN STALLING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY INTO  
MIDWEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  
 
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE  
AREA. HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE  
OF HOURS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS.  
 
SKIES WILL BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR WITH NW FLOW BRINING IN DRIER  
AIR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH  
SOME SPOTS IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER  
50S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
*IDEAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY  
CELEBRATIONS.  
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND COMPLETELY  
EXITS EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, PASSING EAST  
OFFSHORE.  
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR  
WITH AMPLE SURFACE HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL  
GENERALLY OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE RISING OF SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE, GENERALLY  
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LONG ISLAND AND THE NYC METRO MAY  
ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S UNDER A LIGHT NW FLOW. LOWS  
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH INTERIOR AREAS POSSIBLY  
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
* UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY.  
 
THE NBM WAS LARGELY FOLLOWED WITH THIS UPDATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES.  
 
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD,  
WITH UPPER RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ATTENDANT  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE  
TO ADVECT A MORE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, PEAKING ON  
MONDAY (H85 TEMPERATURES 16-18C), WHICH WOULD YIELD SFC TEMPERATURES  
IN THE LOW 90S, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS SOME  
QUESTION AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE PRESENT, WHICH  
MAY INHIBIT HEATING A BIT AND THUS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.  
 
THOSE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE  
ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC  
COAST. GUIDANCE IS MORE VARIED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, AND  
ITS POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT  
MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THUS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.  
 
MAINLY VFR. LINGERING SHRA OR TSRA QUICKLY COMES TO AN END AT  
ALL TERMINALS BY 2Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR. WINDS SHIFT NW OR  
NNW INTO EARLY EVENING AND FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT  
MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING,  
BECOMING AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TOWARD 20 KT  
POSSIBLE.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
WIND DIRECTION MAY HANG NEAR 310 MAG AT NYC TERMINALS EARLY THIS  
EVENING.  
 
GUSTS TOWARD 20 KT POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
 
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.  
 
SUNDAY: VFR. SSW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE  
GRADIENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TSTMS MAY POSE A HAZARD OF STRONG  
WINDS, LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL FEATURE  
G15-20KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3 FT, POSSIBLY AS 4 FT LATE  
MONDAY.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
A LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 2-3 FT 6-7S WILL PRODUCE MAINLY A  
LOW RIP CURRENT RISK ON FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR A MODERATE RISK FOR  
THE BEACHES FROM SMITH POINT TO MONTAUK POINT. A LOW RIP CURRENT  
RISK IS EXPECTED FOR ALL BEACHES ON SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...DBR/DW/MW  
NEAR TERM...DW/MW  
SHORT TERM...MW  
LONG TERM...DBR  
AVIATION...DR  
MARINE...DBR/MW  
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
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