417
FXUS61 KOKX 130234
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
934 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDS HAVE BEEN MOVING TOWARD A WEAKER AND MORE DISORGANIZED
SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
2) A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY, POSSIBLY EXITING
AS SNOW SHOWERS. THIS ALSO BRINGS A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK.
3) KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY,
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF A POLAR AIR
MASS TO THE REGION. WITH WARMER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT'S LIKELY THAT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY, SO EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY TO START AS RAIN, THEN GRADUALLY
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM NE TO SW DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE COLD FRONTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER PIECE
OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVES IN FROM CANADA RESULTING IN A
DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA ANY
TIME BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND MONDAY. TRENDS IN THIS TIMEFRAME
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE AREA, BUT VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING,
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH, AND PRESENCE OF COLD AIR IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO PROVIDE ANY DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. THERE
MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT KSWF AFTER 22Z
TUESDAY.
W WINDS 10KT OR LESS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AROUND 17Z
WINDS BACK TO MORE SW TO S AND INCREASE TO 10-13KT. THERE MAY BE
A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS AT THE METRO TERMINALS DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAIN TIMING NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WNW
WIND GUSTS 15-20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA CONTINUES ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND OR A LITTLE BEFORE
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH A SW FLOW INCREASES LATER IN THE DAY.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS, AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LI SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER
OUT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS DURING A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY,
OTHERWISE SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 5 FEET AND SOME GUSTS 25-30KT.
THIS PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
DISCUSSION...BC/MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/MW
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