929
FXUS61 KOKX 160615
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
215 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER CHANCE FOR LATE THU / THU NIGHT.
2) DRY AND PLEASANT FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
3) WET WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
CARRYING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE AND CENTERED SW OF THE AREA SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOW SOME LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THE RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE CAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
THE ACTIVITY INITIALLY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST, WITH ANY ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
PERHAPS HOLDING TOGETHER SOME AS IT SLIDES EAST. ESSENTIALLY CARRIED
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NW TO SE VERY LATE IN THE DAY THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RUNS OF THE NAM SUGGESTING
MORE OF A SHOWER OR T-STORM CHANCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH THE
NAM SHOWING MORE OF A MCS FOR THU NIGHT. FOR NOW THIS SOLUTION IS
NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE AND THUS THESE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM
SOLUTION(S) APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY NWP AND AI CONSENSUS TO GET OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
QPF OUTPUT AT THIS TIME REMAINS RATHER LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST THE GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE 60S MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WOULD ALLOW OUTLYING AREAS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
WITH RESPECT TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GETTING FURTHER EAST DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TOWARDS SUNDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY,
WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARDS THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE FRONT ULTIMATELY LOCKS UP DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SUGGESTION THAT THE FRONT GOES QUASI-
STATIONARY. SOME NWP DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE FRONT NUDGING
TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOWING SOME HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE
NORTH, WHILE THE CONSENSUS OF NWP AND AI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT
REMAINS NEARBY OR AT LEAST CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING AN ONGOING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS / RAIN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS TIME WITH UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD MAY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING AN
ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
VFR.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. A LIGHT SW FLOW AT
10 KT OR LESS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING BECOMING MORE S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SSW-SW THIS
EVENING AND DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S/SE WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
CHANCE KEWR SE SEA BREEZE DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS REMAINING SW-SSW.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WELL NW OF THE
NYC METRO IN THE AFTERNOON, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: SHOWERS POSSIBLE NIGHT, THEN BECOMING
LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY, BEFORE SLOWLY SLIDING
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TOWARDS LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS
OF THE OCEAN WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON A NNW WIND. OTHERWISE,
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
ONSHORE. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS
BY SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LOW THROUGH MIDDAY, BUT
EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE S/SW TO INCREASE
THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR ALL BEACHES EXCEPT EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON ALL SOUTH-FACING LONG ISLAND BEACHES ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AS
SWELL INCREASES UNDER STRONGER WINDS IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
DAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE
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