539
FXUS61 KOKX 112004
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA, PUSHING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE FRONT
PROBABLY AT LEAST BRINGS SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS CLOUD
COVER WOULD THEN HAMPER FOG FORMATION, BUT STILL SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG COULD MANAGE TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF ANY BKN-OVC CLOUD
DECK. NBM WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART, BUT
WENT CLOSER TO A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR THE PINE BARRENS REGION
AS THIS AREA COULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ALTANTIC
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
MOSTLY 75-80 FOR BOTH DAYS. DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND LIKELY DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CLOUDS
PROBABLY INCREASE DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT, AND AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SHORTWAVE LIFT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A
BETTER COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO INCLUDE ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, AND NBM 6-HR POP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
KEEPS US DRY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS
*MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
*TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE MODELING HAS REMAINED INCONSISTENT WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 24 HOURS AGO, THE
MODELING WAS HINTING AT A MUCH SHARPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE TROUGH TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH AND EAST
RATHER THAN DIGGING TO OUR WEST. THE LATEST NBM HAS COMPLETELY
REMOVED ANY POP FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DID NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POP WITH THIS UPDATE AS THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND WEAK LIFT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH, WHICH MAY ADD SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR ENERGY TO BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST, WHICH MAY FORM A BROAD CUTOFF LOW
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE CUTOFF MAY
MEANDER SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS
OF IT GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD MID/LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
POTENTIALLY WEAKENS. THE NBM/MODEL CONSENSUS HAS KEPT POP BELOW 15
PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST IF GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS BRINGING THE CUTOFF LOW
CLOSER TO THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IN
INTERIOR LOCALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
COULD IMPACT KSWF.
WINDS N 5-10 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZES
WILL BE LATE, IF THEY EVEN OCCUR. CURRENTLY HAVE SEA BREEZES IN TAFS
REPRESENTED AS TEMPOS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT KJFK, KISP, AND KGON.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WINDS TURN MORE NE, THEN CLOSER TO
EASTERLY. WE'LL START THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WINDS NEAR 10 KT.
S/SSE SEA BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. 21-00Z, SHOULD IT OCCUR.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: OUTSIDE OF PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR LOCALES, MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY - TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
STILL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. THE FETCH SHOULD
ALSO PRECLUDE 5 FT SEAS DURING THIS TIME. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL THEN SUSTAIN SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUATION OF
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AT OCEAN
BEACHES. 3 FT WAVES AT 8 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE RIP CURRENT RISK BECOMES LOW ON SATURDAY AS WAVES AND
SWELL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LI SOUND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE ADVISORY CURRENTLY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
GIVEN THE RECENT TREND AND LATEST GUIDANCE, THINKING IS THAT
FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE LIKELY NOT SURPASSED BY MUCH, IF AT ALL,
FOR FRIDAY'S DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLE. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE, SO WILL GO WITH A STATEMENT FOR
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY AND THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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