574
FXUS61 KOKX 272325
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
725 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES NORTH AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY, DEEPENING AS
IT LIFTS NORTH UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS LIFTS UP INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
CLEAR AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A COOL AUTUMN CP AIR MASS HAS
CONTINUED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER. THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH THE WINDS CAN TRY TO
STIR UP SOME, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS
WINDS LOW ENOUGH FURTHER TO THE NW AND NOT AS MUCH FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS FROST FORMATION SHOULD BE MORE ROBUST ACROSS
NW AND N INTERIOR ZONES, BUT ACROSS EASTERN CT ZONES IT IS MORE
DOUBTFUL. THUS, HAVE GONE WITH FROST ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES IN CT, AND NO. WESTCHESTER AND ROCKLAND, AND FOR W. PASSAIC
AND W. BERGEN IN NJ. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH FREEZE WARNINGS IN ORANGE
AND PUTNAM. CHOSE TO DO THIS AS THESE AREAS THAT HAVE THE WARNING GO
LOW WITH TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS
LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWS WILL RANGE PRIMARILY FROM THE 40S IN THE MORE URBAN SECTIONS
ALONG THE COAST, TO MAINLY 30S ELSEWHERE, WITH LOWER 30S CONFINED
MAINLY TO ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING
RESIDES.
ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AS ANY MOISTURE WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST IS LIKELY TO BE SUPPRESSED. ANY POPS THAT EXISTED PREVIOUSLY
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN LOWERED. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND IN THE EARLY EVENING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. A NE WIND
GRADUALLY PICKS UP THROUGH THE DAY, THUS A BREEZY DAY SETS UP,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTHWEST. SKIES MAY EVEN BE MAINLY
CLEAR FOR AWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR ESPECIALLY. A
NE WIND SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR, OTHERWISE WITH THE NE WIND AND MORE
CLOUDS FURTHER SE IT NOT BE AS CHILLY OVERALL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO MAINLY CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THUS MOST PLACES WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY WITH A RELATIVELY HIGHER SHOWER FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LINE OF THINKING ACTUALLY APPEARS
NOW TO HOLD WELL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS LIKELY POPS GET VERY
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LI. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS, BUT OVERALL WEDNESDAY DOESN'T LOOK
QUITE AS WET. HOWEVER, UNSETTLED AT TIMES AND ESPECIALLY LATE BEFORE
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OFF TO THE WEST GETS CLOSER AND STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE CAN START TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM. SO OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING
AND LIFT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. MOST
PLACES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY, AND GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
* RAIN FORECAST TO TAPER OFF WITH SOME REMAINING SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN.
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40
MPH LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ON
FRIDAY.
* FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY MINOR, PARTICULARLY FOR THE POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
* MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF
THE COAST FROM THE HIGHER STORM SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
NBM GENERALLY FOLLOWED EXCEPT WHERE NOTED BELOW.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH, TRACKING CLOSE TO THE SPINE OF
APPALACHIANS. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE
LOW TRACKS WELL WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ALONG WITH STRONG
THERMAL FORCING AND JET DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE A NORTH-SOUTH RIBBON
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT TRANSLATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION,
WITH STRONG LIFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A POSSIBILITY. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE WILL BE FROM
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND NBM
HAVE BOTH HIGH PROBABILITIES (60-85%) OF SEEING GREATER THAN AN INCH
OF RAINFALL. FOR 2 INCHES AND HIGHER, PROBABILITIES DIFFER QUITE A
BIT WITH THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ONLY AT 10-20%, WITH THE NBM AT 30-60%.
BASED ON THE STRONG E/SE WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT,
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS WELL AS SOUTHERN INTERIOR CT
WOULD BE THE MORE FAVORABLE SIGHTS FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER, THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL JETS WILL BE
KEY TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDED RAIN. AS FOR HOURLY
RATES, WE ARE YET TO GET INTO THE TIMEFRAME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE,
BUT RAINFALLS AMOUNT UP TO 0.5"/HR SEEM PLAUSIBLE. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE MORE OF A LONG DURATION EVENT (6-12H) WITH HOURLY RATES MORE
LIKELY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2" RANGE. FFG VALUES FOR 1-6HR AMOUNTS ARE
MAINLY IN THE 2-3" RANGE, EXCEPT NE NJ, WHICH IS A BIT LOWER AT 1-
2.5". THUS, EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE OF A MINOR, NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE FLOOD EVENT. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING. IF THERE ARE ANY TRENDS TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, THE FLOOD THREAT WOULD INCREASE.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD THE WARM FRONT FROM THE E/SE WILL LIKELY
GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ON THURSDAY, STRONGEST AT THE COAST.
WEST WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND PULL AWAY, COULD GET INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR THE
TIME THOUGH, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, WITH
BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. WENT HIGHER THAN THE NBM
WITH WINDS OVER LAND AS IT SEEMS DEFICIENT BASED ON LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND ITS KNOWN LOW BIAS IN A WELL-MIXED WEST FLOW. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM
THE SW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
40S. THESE VALUES VARY NOT TOO FAR FROM THE MEAN.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OVER QUEBEC THRU TUESDAY,
WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST.
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHC MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM S TO N AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY NE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO START OFF (LESS THAN 10 KT). WINDS START TO INCREASE
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY
INTENSIFIES. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT START A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN GUST SPEEDS AFTER 12Z TUESDAY,
WITH GUSTS EARLIER IN THE DAY POSSIBLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
AND WHETHER GUSTS STRENGTHEN IN THE EVENING (AFTER 22Z) TO 20
TO 25 KT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: BECOMING MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. NE
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY LATE AND
OVERNIGHT. NE/ENE FLOW 20-30KT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. E FLOW BECOMING SE. SOME LLWS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: BECOMING VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS.
SATURDAY: VFR WITH DECREASING W WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DEVELOP. FIRST FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS, THEN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DEVELOP SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SW TO NE. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS, THEN UP INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH GALES LIKELY AT THAT TIME. EXPECT E/SE GALES ON THURSDAY,
VEERING AROUND TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY. BRIEF STORM FORCE GUSTS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. GALE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
WAVES ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD AS HIGH 10 TO 15 FT, AND 4 TO 8
FT ON LI SOUND.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE
WILL BE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OVERALL ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR
HOURLY RATES, WE ARE YET TO GET INTO THE TIMEFRAME OF THE HIRES
GUIDANCE, BUT RAINFALLS AMOUNT UP TO 0.5"/HR SEEM PLAUSIBLE.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE MORE OF A LONG DURATION EVENT (6-12H) WITH
HOURLY RATES MORE LIKELY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2" RANGE. FFG VALUES
FOR 1-6HR AMOUNTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 2-3" RANGE, EXCEPT NE NJ,
WHICH IS A BIT LOWER AT 1-2.5". THUS, EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE OF
A MINOR, NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD EVENT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH INCREASING AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW, FETCH WILL INCREASE AND THIS
PILING OF WATER WILL INCREASE SURGE. THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL AS A
RESULT FOR SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD EXCEED BENCHMARKS FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AS WELL AS PERHAPS A FEW THAT COULD APPROACH OR
EXCEED MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THE LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE LOOKS TO BE THE MORE PROBLEMATIC ONE WITH
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, THIS IS
MOSTLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH SOME LOWER POSSIBILITY
(I.E. ISOLATED OR LOCALIZED) FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ069-070.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ331-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ332-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//
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