850
FXUS61 KOKX 271804
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATION.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME, A BROAD TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS
MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CREATE A FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT S
FLOW FROM BOTH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND GENERALLY LOWER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
INCREASES ALONG WITH APPROACHING MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER
THROUGH DAY BREAK WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CITY WEST WHERE
FORCING STARTS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A SPRINKLE FROM THE NYC METRO ON WEST, BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MEASURABLE RAIN AND HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. LINGERING
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INHIBIT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH MEASURABLE RAIN MORE
THAN LIKELY WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL BE
ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE
CONTINUATION OF RIDGING ALOFT AND FROM LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE HIGH OFFSHORE. SOME LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD AIR WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MAY REMAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR. SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, FROM
AROUND THE NYC METRO ON NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS. THERE IS A CHANCE INTERIOR CT REACHES THE LOWER 70S
IF CLOUD COVER IS THINNER ACROSS THIS AREA.
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE AXIS AND WEAK THERMAL FORCING
SETTLE OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC KEEPING
IT FLAT WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH
DIFFER ON THE TIMING ON WHEN IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THE FLATTER
GUIDANCE GENERALLY BRINGS IN LESS PRECIP OVERALL AS THE FORCING
IS WEAKER. THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS HAVE A BIT MORE
PRECIP ALONG WITH A WEAK SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR
LONG ISLAND. THE NBM POPS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE NOTED
MODEL DIFFERENCES, WHICH YIELDS POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY CATEGORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ARE LIGHT AND ARE AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 70S
POSSIBLE IN NE NJ.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ONE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL BE EXITING THU NIGHT,
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON FRI BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT
AND MOVES ACROSS ON SAT. A 30-40 POP FOR SHOWERS THU NIGHT WILL
LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME FRI WITH THE BRIEF UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE AREA, THEN RAMP BACK UP TO 40-50 PERCENT FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT EVENING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW PASSAGE, THEN AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING VIA A TRAILING
COLD FRONT.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, AND LOWS FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW
INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY VFR FORECAST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE 30H
TAF SITES.
S WINDS AROUND 10 KT AT THE COAST, WEAKER INLAND, WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND VEER THIS EVENING TO THE SSW. WINDS WILL THE BACK
TO THE SSE AT 5 TO 10 KT IN THE MORNING, BECOMING ESE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY WINDS BACK
ON WEDNESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS MAY VARY BY 20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 180 THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING AND LOWERING CATEGORIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE LATER
THAN FORECAST. WIND SHIFT COULD ALSO BE DELAYED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TOWARD EVENING
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: RAIN LIKELY. MVFR COND EXPECTED,
IFR POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING. E-SE WINDS G15-20KT
AT THE NYC METRO/COASTAL TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AD SATURDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
TSTM. MVFR COND LIKELY, IFR POSSIBLE. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. INCREASING SE FLOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO WIND GUSTS CLOSE
TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. THE FLOW
MAY WEAKEN A BIT ON THURSDAY, BUT WITH 5 FT OCEAN SEAS.
OCEAN SEAS 5 FT SHOULD LAST INTO THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY FRI MORNING E OF MORICHES INLET. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS OF 5-6 FT IS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES NEARBY FRI NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT ON
SAT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN
COULD OCCUR AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SFC LOW TRACK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL START DECREASING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE NEW MOON OCCURRED ON MONDAY EVENING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE OF
CONCERN WILL BE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURGE
FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD INTO TONIGHT.
FORECAST TIDE LEVELS FROM NYHOPS, STOFS, AND ETSS ARE ALSO ALL
COMING IN JUST BELOW MINOR BENCHMARKS FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS OF THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND SHORE IN SW CT AND
LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS. NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD LEAD TO WATER LEVELS TOUCHING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS AND THE WESTERN
SOUND. HOWEVER, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO FALL SO ANY
IMPACTS LOOK LOCALIZED.
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 1-2 FT SEAS AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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