270
FXUS61 KOKX 010234
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
934 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FOG AND BLACK ICE STILL POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT.
2) SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
3) MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MOS AND TIME-LAGGED NAM/RAP GUIDANCE SUGGEST GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS LONG ISLAND, NYC, AND SW CT. FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FROM ABOUT 9-10 PM UNTIL 1-2 AM AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND A DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE SCOURS OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE EXPECTED TIMING AND TEMPERATURES,
BEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG WOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2
NO ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR SNOW OR WIND CHILLS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY SOME H8 THETA-E ADVECTION
AND H7 FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE THROUGH DAYTIME SUNDAY, MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POP
WHICH IS ABOVE NBM AND MOS GUIDANCE, AND LOWERED ACCUMULATIONS
SLIGHTLY, WITH UP TO AN INCH WELL INLAND AND MORE ON THE ORDER
OF A DUSTING FOR THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN LONG ISLAND/CT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE END OF THE DAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW AS
WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 32 FOR THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART.
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPS FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WELL INLAND, TO THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND ZERO WELL INLAND
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS FOR MONDAY ONLY FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS, AND GET TO WITHIN 3
DEGREES OF RECORD LOW MAXES FOR THE DATE AT NEWARK, JFK, AND
ISLIP.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK COMES ON TUESDAY. AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TUESDAY
MORNING, THIS PRECIPITATION LIKELY STARTS OFF AS SNOW ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE COAST. WE WILL
QUICKLY WARM UP SO THROUGH THE DAY THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL PLAIN RAIN. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH JUST HOW EARLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AND
THIS WILL END UP AFFECTING P-TYPES AND ANY SORT OF ACCUMULATION.
AT THIS TIME, UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED. EVEN THE NBM 4.3
AND 5.0 90TH PERCENTILES FOR SNOW ACCUM SHOW LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE IT SHOWS A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
ONCE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS EAST, A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.
TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUE IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WHILE PROLONGED WET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT BY ANY
MEANS. THERE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY, BUT THIS IS LARGELY
DUE TO THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE
LATEST NBM HAS A TOTAL OF ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES EARLY TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/MIST/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
TEMPOS ARE IN PLACE FOR MVFR MIST AND LOW STRATUS BETWEEN 3Z-7Z.
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ARE COASTAL TERMINALS, PARTICULARLY KJFK
AND KISP. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
MID-MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THEY WILL BECOME N 5-10 KT
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK, THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER IN THE
MORNING. FOLLOWING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN MAGNITUDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON NNW 10-15 KT G17-22 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/MIST/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
TEMPOS ARE IN PLACE FOR MVFR MIST AND LOW STRATUS BETWEEN 3Z-7Z.
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ARE COASTAL TERMINALS, PARTICULARLY KJFK
AND KISP. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE SNOW FOR
SUNDAY, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 03Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
N/NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING,
BECOMING PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
SOUTH TO NORTH. S WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN. THURSDAY S WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY GET CLOSE FOR A TIME ON THE OCEAN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH N FLOW GUSTING OVER 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 4
FT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS
THROUGH, WITH WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN GETTING CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THEN AGAIN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/JT
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...GOODMAN/JT
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