267
FXUS61 KOKX 290523
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER COMING UP TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A SW RETURN FLOW
TO BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING
OF A WARMING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR
WESTERN INLAND AREAS. WARMING CONTINUES SUCH THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR
INLAND WESTERN AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ALONG THE
COAST. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE PARTIAL REBOUND HEADING INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. JET GETS CLOSE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES NEAR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA GETS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES LATE
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY, MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
THEN SLOWLY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AND COULD VERY WELL STALL
OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE PRESENT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND FRONTS SO CHANGES IN POPS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. OVERALL THOUGH, HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MORE OF THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
THE FORECAST HAS LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN IS THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT FOR THE INTERIOR, SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TO
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN.
THE FORECAST ALSO HAS LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. INTERIOR ZONES HAVE A WINTRY MIX WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY
ANOTHER RAIN EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 12Z. SSW WINDS INCREASE
THEREAFTER, BECOMING 10-15 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-25 KT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS SHOULD END 23-02Z, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY FALLING TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
START AND END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS TO BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST,
PARTICULARLY AT JFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT ON TUESDAY, STRONGEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY, THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LATE DAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, MAINLY NW OF
NYC METRO TERMINALS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR AND SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
QUIET, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY AS SW FLOW INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCA
CONDITIONS BEGIN ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
MAINLY DUE TO RISING WAVE HEIGHTS WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 10-12
FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCA POTENTIAL EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS, SCA POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO, SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GALES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ON THE
OCEAN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/MW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MW
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