369
FXUS61 KOKX 040128
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
928 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2020
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND STALLS JUST TO THE
SOUTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES, MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
A WEAKENING LINE SEGMENT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH 10
PM. SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS 40-45 MPH GENERALLY EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS
WILL END THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE REGION FOR TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN SETTLES SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING WITH A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S, WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN HUMID WITH DEW POINTS OF
SIMILAR VALUES.
THERE REMAINS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO 4-5 FT SOUTH LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
A DIFFUSE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL SEE SW-S WINDS
BRIDGE ACROSS IT WITH A WARM DAY AND PLENTY OF SUN. HIGH WILL
GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK THERMAL FORCING COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
PERTURBATION MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR THE TIME, HAVE
KEPT THIS AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AS
IS THE FORCING.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE 60S.
THE HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES CONTINUES THURSDAY DUE TO 5 FT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LONG
PERIOD SWELLS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A SHORTWAVE. THEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NW SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING. RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BE PART OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ITS PARENT LOW
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S ALONG WITH FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS ON SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDER CHANCES ARE GREATER DURING THE DAY WITH
MORE FORECAST INSTABILITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING THE DAYTIME.
SHOWERS TAPER OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
JUST AFTER MIDWEEK WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD. DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEXT
WEEK.
THERE REMAINS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
FRIDAY DUE TO 4-5 FT SOUTH LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRES PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, AND WEAK HIGH
PRES SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY
02Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
LIGHT SW FLOW OVERNIGHT, THEN VEERS TO THE W FOR THU MORNING
PUSH. COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON. FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS, POTENTIALLY INTO KEWR/KTEB AS WELL. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THU EVE FOR NYC/NJ
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THU NIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDS..
FRI
AFTN AND EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY N AND W OF NYC.
SAT
CHANCE OF TSTMS.
SUN AND MON
VFR.
MARINE
MARGINAL SCA SEAS WILL LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE EASTERNMOST OCEAN WEST OF MORICHES INLET STAYING UP
THE LONGEST.
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY COULD HAVE SOME SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. OTHERWISE FOR OTHER TIME
PERIODS OF THE MARINE LONG TERM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A SOUTHERLY SWELL AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD PRODUCE
LOCAL MINOR COASTAL FLOOD DURING THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES
ACROSS THE BACK BAYS OF BROOKLYN, SOUTHERN QUEENS, AND SOUTHERN
NASSAU COUNTY, AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY, AND ALONG THE
SHORE OF NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES AS WE APPROACH A FULL MOON. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS/NASSAU
AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) IS UNDERGOING
ITS FINAL STAGES OF TESTING, AND IS OPERATING AT FULL POWER.
KOKX WSR-88D RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL APPROXIMATELY JUNE 15 FOR
THE PEDESTAL REFURBISHMENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NYZ071.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NYZ178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ353.
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
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