329
FXUS61 KOKX 180844
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. A QUICK-MOVING LOW
PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION THURSDAY, BEFORE
EXITING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IMPACTS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY RETURNS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE A FAST
MOVING LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. LIGHTER FLOW
THAN RECENT DAYS WITH A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE FIELD AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA
CONTINUES TO EXIT.
AIR MASS REMAINS A BIT COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR, WITH H850
PROGGED NEAR -5C INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUN EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY EARLY, WITH THE NEARBY
HIGH. SUNSHINE BECOMES MORE FILTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, SLIDING OFF THE DELMARVA WED AM.
AS IT DOES SO, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS WEAK AND TRANSIENT THOUGH AND QPF IS PROJECTED TO BE
LIGHT WHERE IT DOES PRECIPITATE, GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST, AND LESS GOING NORTH. MUCH OF S
CT AND THE LOHUD VALLEY COULD REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY FIGHTING
LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING. IF ENOUGH WORKS NORTH HOWEVER,
MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW, OR A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX, IN THESE AREAS. GIVEN SUCH LIGHT QPF THOUGH,
UNSATURATED DMZ, AND MARGINAL BL TEMPS, ANY ACCUMULATION
SHOULDN'T BE MORE THAN A DUSTING OR LIGHT COATING ON THE COLDEST
SURFACES, AND EVEN THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING THIS WILL BE IN ELEVATED LOCALES NORTH AND WEST OF NYC,
SUCH AS THE HUDSON, RAMAPO, AND PERHAPS WESTERN HIGHLANDS.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, TEMPERATURES APPEAR NOT TO SUPPORT ANY
FROZEN PRECIP, EVEN WITH INITIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE DRY
LOW LEVELS, AND A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED HERE.
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY PULLS OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST, TO UPPER 20S
WELL INLAND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERS BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
PASSING LOW SCOOTS OUT TO SEA. CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE RETURNS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT N/NE SURFACE
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND TEMPERATURES SIT
IN THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST BOTH AFTERNOONS, FALLING BACK INTO THE
20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THU AM, BUT MAINLY FOR COLDER INLAND
AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEAR
THE REGION ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
* HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE NYC
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD, WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 10 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS THEN FALL BELOW 10
KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20
KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: MVFR OR LOWER IN LIGHT RAIN,
MAINLY LATE AND FOR NYC TERMINALS. OTHER TERMINALS HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT STAYING VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES IN RAIN. S
WINDS G15-20KT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT ON NON OCEAN
WATERS UNTIL 10Z THIS MORNING, AND ON THE OCEAN UNTIL 19Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT WNW WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT LARGELY SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING, WITH ELEVATED SEAS NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT LOWERING ON THE
OCEAN BY MID AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RETURN ON THE OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT OR
GREATER.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DR
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW
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