419  
FXUS61 KOKX 042032  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
332 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SLIDES  
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A BROAD  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY, EXITING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN  
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY  
IMPACT THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE MAY THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO BEGIN NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS  
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK  
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH. AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR  
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS WIND TO RELAX AND BECOME CALM. THIS  
ALLOWS FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP OVERNIGHT.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT  
THIS EVENING WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW 20S AND POSSIBLY UPPER  
TEENS FOR INTERIOR AND TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. COASTAL LOCATIONS  
AND THE NYC METRO WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE  
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
AND DRY CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY,  
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THIS  
WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE  
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS SLOW INCREASE IN LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO  
NEAR 50, ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
S/SE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ON  
MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO  
IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF  
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THERE TO BE SOME LIGHT  
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF MOISTURE MOVES IN QUICKER, SOME COOLER  
SPOTS IN ORANGE COUNTY MAY HAVE A MIX OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER  
COMPLETELY TO RAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S FOR INTERIOR  
AREAS TO THE NORTH. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO  
LOWER 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
POLAR VORTEX REMAINS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY AND  
TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WELL TO ITS EAST WILL HELP SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY  
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE  
PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX WILL HELP DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST, AND REMAIN WEAK AS IT  
RUNS INTO THE RIDGING TO THE EAST.  
 
RAIN SPREADS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING  
TUESDAY AND WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT OUT EAST DUE TO THE RIDGE TO THE  
EAST. RAIN THEREFORE REMAINS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST  
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ALLOWED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE POLAR VORTEX ALONG WITH A  
SPOKE OF ENERGY SHIFT NORTH AND ALLOW A CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING  
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE  
WEST AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTS NE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND  
REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THEN  
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING FRIDAY  
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRIES TO SUPPRESS THE SYSTEM. STILL  
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRACK OF  
THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REACH. NBM'S SLIGHT CHANCE  
TO CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM A FAIR COMPROMISE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP TYPE THIS FAR OUT WITH GIVEN  
UNCERTAINTIES IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP  
THIS PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT. A WINTRY MIX MAY HOWEVER EVENTUALLY  
DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR  
INTRODUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.  
 
LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS  
THE THREAT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING TOWARD US FROM EAST AND  
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THINKING IS THAT MOST OF  
THE WEEKEND IS DRY, BUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN EXISTS AT  
TIMES.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY, THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE  
MONDAY.  
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
NW TO W WINDS LESS THAN 10KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS  
EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXCEPT LIGHT WESTERLY AT THE NYC TERMINALS.  
MONDAY MORNING WINDS BECOME SW LESS THAN 10KT.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
   
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT
 
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT WITH A  
CHANCE OF RAIN, EXCEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KSWF.   
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
 
MVFR WITH RAIN. CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.   
THURSDAY
 
VFR.   
FRIDAY
 
MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, RAIN/SNOW INLAND IN THE  
MORNING.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE WATERS AND WIND REMAINS BELOW  
CRITERIA.  
 
AN ONSHORE FLOW OF AROUND 15 KT WILL PREVAIL ON THE OCEAN WATERS  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. IT MIGHT NOT BE  
UNTIL ENOUGH SWELL IS GENERATED AT SOME POINT TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE  
SEAS PREVAIL OVER 5 FT AND LAST INTO A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH SUBSIDING SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
THURSDAY. NE WINDS THEN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A  
RETURN TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-  
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD SEE SUB-CRITERIA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MOSTLY 1 TO 1 1/2" OF RAINFALL LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
REASONABLE WORST CASE AT THIS POINT AROUND 2" OF RAIN IN 48 HRS, BUT  
NOT SEEING SIGNAL FOR MORE THAN 3/4" IN 6 HRS. EVEN LOWEST HEADWATER  
GUIDANCES ACROSS NE NJ WOULD REQUIRE 1 1/2" IN 6 HRS AND 2" IN 12 HR  
FOR MINOR FLOODING. SO WITH THE LONG DURATION OF THIS RAINFALL AND  
MANAGEABLE HOURLY/6 HOURLY RATES, ONLY LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING  
CONCERNS EXIST DUE TO LEAF-CLOGGED DRAINAGES.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN BAYS OF W LI (AS LOW AS 1 FT OF SURGE NEEDED) WITH THE  
WED MORNING HIGH TIDES DUE TO A PERSISTENT SE FLOW.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JC/MW  
NEAR TERM...MW  
SHORT TERM...MW  
LONG TERM...JC  
AVIATION...MET  
MARINE...JC/MW  
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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