369
FXUS61 KOKX 181102
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
702 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2021
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO MID WEEK,
AND IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS
UPDATE.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST TODAY AND ADDITIONAL
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDE AND INCREASED DAYTIME
HEATING, SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK 850
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY
RISE LATE IN THE DAY. SEVERAL CAMS SHOW SHOWERS ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND TO WARRANT LOW END CHANCE POPS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH. AGAIN, THIS WOULD BE FOR THOSE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN
AREAS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FILTER IN COOLER
AIR.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TUE-WED AND THE NBM WAS
FOLLOWED. HIGH PRES SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
HEIGHTS WILL PRODUCE MILD AND DRY WX TUE AND WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS ON THU, BUT SHWRS
ARE PROGGED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NGT. CHANCES FOR SHWRS THRU
FRI WITH THE FROPA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY FRI PER THE 12Z MODEL TIMING OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL
TROF MAY SHUNT THE MOISTURE OFFSHORE THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI,
KEEPING THE ACTUAL FROPA DRY. TOO FAR OUT TO BE CONFIDENT IN ANY
OF THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THOUGH.
COLDER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN
COLDER. THE GFS IS NOW DOWN TO -6C AT H85 ON SUN. AS A RESULT,
THE FCST WAS BLENDED TOWARDS THE COLDER MEX GUIDANCE THRU THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THIS MORNING, AND
MOVES ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING A RETURN OF BKN
CIGS AT KSWF AND THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGHOUT BY ABOUT
13Z AT MOST SITES. THIS MORNING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS, A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, IMPACTING MAINLY THE
CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS, AND CIGS THERE MAY ALSO LOWER CLOSE
TO MVFR THRESHOLDS DURING THAT TIME. CLEARING SKIES THIS
EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE MON AM AFTER ABOUT 14Z AND VEER NW,
SUSTAINED 15-20 KT AND GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 25 KT. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT
VFR.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
VFR.
FRIDAY
MVFR WITH ANY MORNING SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON ALL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW CONTINUES
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
BELOW 25 KT THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND, PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUND, PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS AND THE EASTERN OCEAN
ZONE MAY BRIEFLY BRING GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LVLS ON TUE FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTER OCEAN ZONE, SO SCA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
THESES AREAS. HOWEVER, WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN ZONE WILL
DECREASE ENOUGH ON TUE THAT THE SCA WAS NOT EXPANDED HERE.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE CLOSE TO 5 FT BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ON THU AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH A SCA POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN NEAR SCA LVLS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
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