214
FXUS61 KOKX 140529
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
129 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT THUNDERSTORMS AND A RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO A PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER NEARBY AND OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS MAY AID IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING AND AFTER PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS MARGINAL AND THE LIFT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK WITH NOT ENOUGH SHEAR. WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP
WILL STAY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SATURDAY, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAINFALL, AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUBSIDENCE WILL BE AT ITS
STRONGEST ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AS THE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE REGION.
NOTHING RELATIVELY WORTH NOTING AS FAR AS TEMPS GO. HIGHS IN THE
MID/LOW 80S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER 60S
AT THE COAST AND LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S IN INTERIOR LOCATIONS EACH
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THROUGH A WARM FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY THAT MOVES THROUGH SLOWLY INTO
MONDAY.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE OUR NEXT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION.
ANTICIPATING GOOD LIFT FROM A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFT/EVE, PWATS OF 2-
2.5 INCHES BEING ADVECTED IN, MIDLEVEL ENERGY FROM A PASSING
SHORTWAVE, A STRONG COASTAL LLJ, AND THE POTENTIAL OF DECENT
CAPE AND BULK SHEAR.
THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WINDOW FOR A
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OUT EAST.
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK LESS CERTAIN. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
SYSTEM TO ENTER THE WINDOW OF THE CAMS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THAT.
PWATS TAKE A NOSEDIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A NW FLOW TAKES OVER WITH
STEADILY DROPPING DEWPOINTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT A QUICK
END TO THE RAIN WEST TO EAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF IT
STRUGGLES AND LINGERS INTO MONDAY, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF RAIN COULD
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CT TERMINALS.
NNW-NW FLOW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO THE WNW AND
POTENTIALLY W TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. SOME COASTAL TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY KJFK, KISP,
KBDR, AND KGON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, THEN
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS LIGHTEN
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO THE N-NE TONIGHT.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT KJFK MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE S OR SW AT LGA BETWEEN 21-23Z.
A SEA BREEZE MAY APPROACH KEWR THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING
S-SE WINDS, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT.
VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION LIKELY AROUND 00Z BEFORE SETTLING
TO THE N-NE 02Z-04Z
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY
AND AT NIGHT. S WINDS G15-25KT, HIGHEST AT THE COAST.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY AND MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FROM A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND A STRONG COASTAL LLJ WITH GUSTS 25KT+ IN NY HARBOR, SOUTH
SHORE BAYS, AND OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
RIP CURRENTS: 1-2 FT SE ONSHORE SWELL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY KEEP THE RIP RISK LOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR
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