959
FXUS61 KOKX 242345
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
645 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT, AND COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE AM COMMUTE.
2) WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING ANOTHER
LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
3) DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AS A CLIPPER LOW DRIFTS E ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES, A LEADING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH FROPA, AND
COULD MIX WITH RAIN AFTER DAYBREAK MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS
TEMPS RISE WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE
FROM A DUSTING ACROSS THE LOWER BOROUGHS OF NYC AND THE SOUTH
SHORE/EAST END OF LONG ISLAND, TO AROUND AN INCH MOST ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH, AND S MUCH AS 2 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR S CT, JUST
SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR THE WED AM COMMUTE, WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, AND ADDITIONAL SNOW COVER ON UNTREATED SURFACES
AND ALSO COVERING ICY SPOTS LEFT OVER FROM FROM EARLIER
SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH TO SKIRT THE CWA FROM LATE DAY THU INTO
THU NIGHT. P-TYPE WITH THIS EVENT WOULD BE SNOW.
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE, WITH ABOUT AN INCH FOR
NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND AND LESS THAN AN INCH TO THE NORTH.
THESE AMTS ARE CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS MEAN BUT ARE UNCERTAIN, AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD ON TRACK
AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMTS, WITH AN OVERALL GRADUAL S TREND AS
WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
ALONG WITH AN ARCTIC AIR POTENTIALLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MASS PASS NEAR THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING WHETHER THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK OR CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND COLD.
THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE PRESENCE OF
THE ARCTIC HIGH MAY SUPPRESS OR WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LIMITING ANY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
(NBM) INDICATES ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SNOW COULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE GIVEN
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER POTENTIAL ARCTIC AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES LARGELY KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD TO START NEXT WEEK. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MODELING AND
PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST AND MID TO UPPER 40S HUDSON
RIVER CORRIDOR ON WEST. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TRENDING DOWN ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BY MONDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
AND LOW TO MID 30S NEXT TUESDAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS INLAND AND LOWER 20S
CLOSE TO THE COAST.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN THIS EVENING BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, THEN CONDITIONS LOWER TO
MVFR, AND AT TIMES (TEMPO GROUP) IFR AS SNOW MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE TYPICAL MORNING PUSH TIMES, ENDING LATE IN THE
MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE IN THE DAY AT THE NYC TERMINALS AND
WEST. REMAINING MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES, EAST OF THE NYC
TERMINALS.
WNW FLOW EARLY EVENING 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING MORE SW/S LATE
TONIGHT UNDER 10 KT, AND EVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS. SW/S WINDS INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT AROUND 10-15KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE,
MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SW
WINDS DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON, BECOMING W DURING WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
START/END TIMES OF SUB-VFR AND SNOW MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MOST OF THURSDAY: VFR
LATE THURSDAY AFTN/THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT
SNOW.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, WITH NW FLOW STILL
GUSTING TO 25 KT AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 5-6 FT. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT, THEN SCA COND SHOULD RESUME ON
THE OCEAN, THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND, AND THE FAR ERN SOUND AS
SW FLOW INCREASES WITH A WARM FROPA. GUSTS 25-30 KT EXPECTED,
WITH OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FT BY WED AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WED NIGHT, BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER 5
FT LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING ON ALL OCEAN
WATERS, INTO THU AFTERNOON E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET, AND INTO
EARLY THU EVENING E OF MORICHES INLET.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SCA CONDITIONS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ332-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/DS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page