663
FXUS61 KOKX 131512
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1112 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN NASSAU.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG SOME
VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE SW FAIRFIELD COUNTY COAST DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITY AND
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK.
3) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
4) THE COLDEST AIR OF FALL 2026 EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WATER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NASSAU. THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MOST
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT. NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2
FOR TODAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEARBY. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE BEST FORCING
PASSING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH DEW POINT READING PRIMARILY IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S TONIGHT AND INTO DAY WEDNESDAY
PRIMARILY ON A SW FLOW, WHICH BECOMES MORE W LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST LIKELY IN THE EVENING
HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH PRIMARILY DRY WITH ONLY THE
LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NNW IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO DRAW CLOSER ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN
LIGHTER WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE RESULTING IN A PLEASANT
FALL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH MAINLY MIDDLE 60S
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST NWP GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF COMMA HEAD
ASSOCIATED RAIN, AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE WARM FRONT LIFTING FURTHER
NORTH WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP
BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WARM FRONTAL RAIN, AND THUS CARRYING
LIKELY POPS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AT THIS TIME. THE COLD
FRONT IS LIKELY TO SWING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY OR BY EARLY
EVENING. THIS MAY VERY WELL BRING WITH IT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT EARLY TO GET INTO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT A HALF INCH IS A GOOD STARING POINT IN
TERMS OF AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS COULD GO UP OVER TIME
IF IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS GREATER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 4
THE COLDEST AIR OF FALL 2026 FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO 40S AREA WIDE FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS MAKING IT FEEL LIKE THE 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S INLAND WITH LOWER 50S NEAR THE
COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF CT AND LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED, IFR POSSIBLE, THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING FOR KGON, POTENTIALLY LINGERING AT IFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.
SCT- BKN MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
KBDR/ISP, BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFT/EVENING. ELSEWHERE
SCT MVFR CIGS LIKELY THRU THE AFTERNOON, IMPROVING THIS EVENING.
SE-S 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING S AROUND 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN SW LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WSW FLOW INCREASING TO 40-45 KT ALOFT COULD
ALSO LEAD TO LLWS TONIGHT, AT KSWF BY 00Z, THE NYC METROS BY 02Z,
AND KISP/KBDR BY 03Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
BKN MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF NYC/NJ METRO
TERMINALS TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON (LEFT
OF 300 TRUE).
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND LATE.
FRIDAY: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON TSTM, WITH MVFR OR LOWER
COND. S WINDS 10-15 G20KT IN THE MORNING, BECOMING SW 15-20 G25KT IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS UP UP 30 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 20-25 G30-35KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 20 G30-35KT. A PEAK GUST UP TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE AT THE NYC METROS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS MAINLY 4 TO 5 FT, ALONG WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS WELL THROUGH
TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FOR THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE MAINLY SUB ADVISORY, HOWEVER A PERIOD OR MARGINAL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOLLOW
ON THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS MOMENTARILY.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING A SE FLOW INCREASES WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GALES
DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...JE/DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JE/DS
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