243
FXUS61 KOKX 190240
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1040 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
2) MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS FORECAST TO BE REACHED OR EXCEEDED AT MANY
COASTAL LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
3) SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRANSITION TO MUCH COLDER AIR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
4) A WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
DRY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN REVOLVING AROUND POTENTIAL FOG,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY DENSE FOG IS LOW AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS, WHICH MAY
PREVENT VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL VERY LATE AND MORE TOWARDS DAY
BREAK WELL NW OF THE NYC METRO.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT NEW MOON AND AN E/SE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WATER LEVELS AT OR JUST ABOVE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. MOST TIDAL
LOCATIONS NEED WATER LEVELS OF 0.5 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL TO
MAKE THIS HAPPEN. LATEST SURGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN, HOWEVER, THERE WAS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE MUCH OF THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TOO MUCH ABOVE THE MINOR
LEVEL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE ACROSS THE
BACK BAYS OF SOUTHERN NASSAU, AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD.
HOWEVER, IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO AIR ON THE SAFE SIDE AT THIS
TIME AND KEEP THE HAZARDS IN PLACE.
WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BUT COULD TOUCH THE MINOR BENCHMARK IN SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SW
FAIRFIELD ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. MOST OF THE
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY COMES FROM FORCING AHEAD OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET. WHILE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE MAJORITY OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH NO CONCERNS FOR ANY
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE, SO HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. TOTAL RAINFALL REMAINS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AMOUNTS AROUND TWO TO FOUR TENTHS,
HIGHEST INLAND. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH 40S LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR MOST SPOTS AND LOW 40S IN THE NYC METRO. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO PREVENT
FROST FORMATION WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH A COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (~20%), WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF POP UP SHOWERS. A FEW COULD EVEN
CONTAIN ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO EFFICIENTLY
COOL THE BL. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY OUTSIDE THE
URBAN NYC METRO, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO MID 30S IN THE CITY, OR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A FREEZE WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERIOR AND POTENTIALLY PORTIONS OF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
IN THE NYC METRO SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WEAK RETURN
FLOW AND A MILDER NIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 4
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST PLACES AND LOWER 70S IN THE NYC/NE NJ
METRO. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NGT. LIFR LIKELY FROM
KJFK/KLGA/KHPN EAST. LESS CERTAIN IF KEWR/KTEB WILL SEE LIFR
CONDITIONS BUT IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR THEY WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT
FROM ABOUT 08Z-11Z. CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED WITH THE 3Z
AMENDMENTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
COLD FROPA TAKES PLACE IN THE MORNING ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS, WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW 15-20G25 AT THE NYC METROS AND 10-
15G20KT ELSEWHERE. IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE SLOW TO
TAKE PLACE DUE TO THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS, BUT EXPECT MVFR COND TO
RETURN TO THE NYC METROS BY 14Z-15Z AND TO ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z,
THEN VFR GENERALLY 20Z AND LATER. VFR SUN NGT WITH DECREASING NW
WINDS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND
EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT. AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NW WINDS G20KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN DENSE FOG REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY SUNDAY. NW FLOW INCREASES
BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING TO MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NEAR
SHORE OCEAN WATERS, LI SOUND, LI BAYS, AND NY HARBOR. NEARSHORE
OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ071-078-
176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-
178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ353-
355.
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