180
FXUS61 KOKX 192030
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
JUST BELOW ZERO.
2.) ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
3.) POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SEND THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL UPCOMING COLD SHOTS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN HEAD UP TOWARD THE DAVIS STRAIT ON TUESDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY WEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILD VALUES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MORNING, EVEN SOME BELOW ZERO VALUES
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THESE READINGS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. CRITERIA FALLS SHORT OF COLD WEATHER ALERTS.
ON TUESDAY, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOWER 20S. HOWEVER, WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT, WIND DIMINISH AND LOWS
WILL GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND THE LOWER TEENS AT
THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM UP HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND A WARMING SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THURSDAY WILL BE THE ONLY MILD DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WAA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SW FLOW BOOSTS DAYTIME TEMPS
TO 40-45. COLD FROPA THU NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THU NIGHT/FRI, THEN ANOTHER COLD FROPA FRI
AFTERNOON WILL BRING IN A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND AND ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. LOW TEMPS FROM
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS IN NYC AND
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE, GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO WELL INLAND SAT
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SAT AND
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY AS WELL. A BRISK NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL
YIELD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 0 TO 5 BELOW FOR THE NYC METRO AREA AND
THE COAST, AND 5-10 BELOW WELL INLAND EACH NIGHT, WITH MAX DAYTIME
WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SOUTHERN STREAM SYS PASSING TO THE
SOUTH THIS WEEKEND, AS MODELS ARE LIKELY SUPPRESSING IT TOO FAR
SOUTH VIA TOO STRONG OF A POLAR JET/MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM
NEW ENGLAND OVER TO NOVA SCOTIA, TO THE REAR OF A 50/50 CLOSED LOW.
DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS IS DRY AND 00Z ECMWF GIVES ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE A LITTLE LESS
SUPPRESSED, AND THE ECMWF AIFS AND AI-GFS EVEN LESS SO. SO FORECAST
CARRIES A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH IT
IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVERNIGHT.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THIS EVE, AS WELL AS TUE AFTN AND EVE. CHANCES FOR SHSN
REDUCING CIGS/VIS TO MVFR OR LOWER ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.
WINDS AROUND 250 TRUE THRU THIS EVE. SPEEDS MAY DECREASE A BIT
AROUND 00Z MAINLY OUTLYING ARPTS. WINDS VEER TO AROUND 270 TRUE
AFT 5Z BEHIND THE FROPA, BUT SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
AOB 20KT ATTM. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP AGAIN AFT 12Z TUE, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT LIKELY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE ON TUE.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-30KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW-S WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A BAND OF RAIN
OR SNOW.
FRIDAY: VFR WITH W WINDS BECOMING NW G25-35KT.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK, TIMING,
AND INTENSITY OF POSSIBLE LOW PRES.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL WATERS INTO TUESDAY, PERSISTING ON THE OCEAN THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 5 TO 10 FT
TONIGHT, HIGHEST EAST OF MORICHES INLET DUE TO THE WESTERLY
FETCH. WAVES ON THE SOUND WILL GET UP TO 3 TO 5 FT, POSSIBLY 6
FT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT,
A BRIEF LULL WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRENGTHENING
SW FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS BY NIGHTFALL ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
SCA COND EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN THU INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SW-W FLOW GUSTING TO 25
KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT. AN ARCTIC COLD FROPA FRI AFTERNOON SHOULD
THEN BRING SCA COND TO ALL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT, WITH NW
FLOW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT ON THE
OCEAN, AND SEAS 5-6 FT.
SCA COND SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT INTO SAT NIGHT, WITH NW-N
FLOW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS AS WELL SAT NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
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