193
FXUS61 KOKX 191323
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
923 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MID-
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ANY SHOWERS REMAINING WEST OF THE
AREA BEFORE 6 PM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS LIFT IS ENHANCED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING JET STREAK ALOFT. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT BEFORE COMPLETELY MOVING OUT OF
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF GENERALLY
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. SOME AREAS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MAY SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH AND A HALF
INCH OF RAIN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY AND WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
DRY PASSAGE, A STRAY SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
POTENTIALLY UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND SKIES CLEARING OUT, LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE 30S FOR INLAND AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY.
A 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING TO END THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE AREA TERMINALS. SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN VFR UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY
TO FALL TO MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR
CIGS COME IN CLOSER TO 20Z, AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A RETURN TO VFR IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 12-15Z
SATURDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY LATER EAST OF NYC.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SE LATE
THIS MORNING MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, HOWEVER
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW AROUND 10KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY
AN HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EARLY
MORNING, BECOMING VFR. W-WNW WINDS G15-25 KT POSSIBLE LATE.
SUNDAY: VFR. W WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TODAY WITH WAVES
JUST OVER 5 FEET. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS
THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF 5 FT SEAS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN KEEP CONDITIONS AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY BUILD BACK TO
SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO APPROACH.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...DS/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC
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