503  
FZUS81 KBUF 021941  
ICESL  
 
SAINT LAWRENCE FREEZE UP DATE OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY  
241 PM EST TUE JAN 2 2024  
   
..FREEZE-UP DATE OUTLOOK FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
 
 
THE DATE OF THE FIRST FREEZE-UP ON THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER NEAR  
MASSENA, NY IS FORECAST TO BE JANUARY 8, 2024.  
 
WATER TEMPERATURES...  
 
WATER TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW  
WEEKS OF DECEMBER, BUT THEN FELL VERY LITTLE DURING THE SECOND  
HALF OF THE MONTH. THIS LEAVES WATER TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE TO START JANUARY.  
 
WATER TEMPERATURES JANUARY 2ND:  
 
ALEXANDRIA BAY, NY 41F (NORMAL 37F)  
 
LAKE ONTARIO OUTFLOW...  
 
THE OUTFLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO HAS AVERAGED ABOUT 261,000 CFS THROUGH  
THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER, WHICH IS ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVERAGE.  
ABOVE AVERAGE OUTFLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF JANUARY.  
 
ABOVE AVERAGE OUTFLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO RESULTS IN FASTER CURRENT IN  
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER, WHICH CAN DELAY THE ONSET OF SHORE TO  
SHORE ICE.  
 
AIR TEMPERATURES...  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AVERAGED SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES HAD A MUCH MORE TYPICAL RANGE THROUGH THE  
MONTH THAN THE BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF OCTOBER, WITH JUST A FEW  
BRIEF PERIODS OF WELL ABOVE OR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL COMING  
DURING THE LAST 8 DAYS OF THE MONTH. DECEMBER 2023 RANKED AS THE  
2ND WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT WATERTOWN.  
 
DECEMBER AVERAGE AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH DECEMBER 31ST:  
 
WATERTOWN, NY 36.5F (9.2F ABOVE NORMAL)  
MASSENA, NY 30.9F (7.1F ABOVE NORMAL)  
 
FORECAST FOR JANUARY...  
 
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST DAYS THROUGH  
THE FIRST WEEK TO 10 DAYS OF JANUARY, ALTHOUGH DEPARTURES FROM  
NORMAL WILL BE MUCH SMALLER THAN IN DECEMBER. A TREND TOWARDS  
MORE CONSISTENT WINTER COLD IS EXPECTED BY MID JANUARY, ALTHOUGH  
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
A MODERATE TO STRONG EL NINO PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
WINTER, WHICH FAVORS INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR THE WINTER ON A WHOLE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SAINT  
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.  
 
GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS, AND THE OVERALL TREND IN LATER ONSET OF  
ICE COVER OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS, THE FIRST FREEZE-UP ON THE SAINT  
LAWRENCE RIVER NEAR MASSENA, NY IS FORECAST TO BE JANUARY 8, 2024.  
THIS DATE IS AROUND TWO WEEKS LATER THAN THE LONG TERM AVERAGE.  
 
NOTE: ONCE THE WATER TEMPERATURE DROPS TO THE MID 30S, ICE COVER CAN  
DEVELOP IN JUST ONE VERY COLD, CALM NIGHT.  
 
NOTE: THIS FORECAST IS FOR THE FIRST SHORE TO SHORE FREEZE-UP OF THE  
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER NEAR MASSENA, NY. THE FIRST PERMANENT SHORE TO  
SHORE ICE OFTEN OCCURS SEVERAL WEEKS LATER.  
 

 
 
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