504
FXUS61 KAKQ 141714
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1214 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY, DUE TO ANOTHER LOW FORMING OFF THE
COAST. DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
- GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OFFSHORE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1035+) OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA HAS WEDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL THICKEN TO BECOME OVERCAST EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
HAVE BEGUN MOVING INLAND.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION AND THEN REFORM OFF THE NC COAST. WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
FROM BOTH CAMS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS, POPS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
CWA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE NOW 95-
99%. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO START AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT, MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, LINGERING TO THE SE AS THE
LOW REFORMS, CAUSING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY MORNING IN SE VA/NE
NC.
DURING THIS EVENT, THE ENTIRE REGION COULD SEE SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN
AS ALL OF THE CWA IS IN A DROUGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON QPF AMOUNTS, BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA (SOUTH SIDE OF I-64) WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
RAINFALL. QPF TOTALS RANGE FROM 1.25-2.25" IN THIS AREA WITH
ISOLATED HIGH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, WHILE NORTH OF I-64 IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE 0.25-1.25". THE NBM SHOWS A 60% PROBABILITY OF LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EQUATING TO GREATER THAN 2.25" IN SE VA/NE NC. THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WILL MOST LIKELY MEASURE THE LEAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH TOTALS AROUND 0.1-0.5" WITH ISOLATED HIGH AMOUNTS.
NO MAJOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS THE DURATION REMAINS
OVER HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR WATER TO PILE UP ALONG
ROADWAYS AND DITCHES.
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE REFORMS, CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE COAST TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS 23-28 MPH
WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY ABOVE 35 MPH. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO DOMINATING THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AS STRONG CAD WEDGING TAKES PLACE, WHILE TEMPS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95 WILL BE IN THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S TOWARDS THE COAST.
WILL NOTE, MODELS DON'T HANDLE CAD TEMPS WELL AND WILL MOST LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WITH REAL TIME DATA. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WON'T GET
TO COOL DOWN MUCH FROM THE RAIN AND CLOUDS RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND LOW 50S TOWARDS
THE COAST. AFTER THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, TEMPS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AFTER THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW THIS WEEKEND TO BE DRY. SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL REACH THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE COASTLINE IN THE UPPER 40S.
SATURDAY WILL WARM UP TO THE LOWER 60S AND COOL DOWN TO THE UPPER
30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
MOSTLY SUNNY INITIALLY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S WITH LOWER 60S NE. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS E MONDAY AND DAMPENS TO SOME EXTENT AS A TROUGH
DROPS ESE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE MID-ATLANTIC ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
TUESDAY. FORECAST LOWS RANGE THROUGH THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SW FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S N TO AROUND 70F S, AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIVING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST. 14/00Z
EPS/GEFS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PW ANOMALIES OF 150-200% OF NORMAL OVER
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS DURING THE 14/00Z CYCLE
DEPICT MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH LESS ORGANIZED RAINFALL
DESPITE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, CLIMO POPS (20-
30%) WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAIN W OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1205 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL SOON TURN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACH ALL TERMINALS. AS OF 12PM RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
STARTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE RICHMOND METRO AND IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO RAIN SHOWERS WILL EUPHORIC THE OTHER
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 15 KT HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO ADD THESE
GUSTS TO THE TAFS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
22Z/14-05Z/15 THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HEAVIER RAIN
AND LOWER CEILING ARRIVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
LOCALLY DETERIORATE TO LIFR CONDITIONS. BY TOMORROW MORNING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND ALL TERMINALS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25. ACROSS ECG
AND ORF WINDS WILL BE HIGHER WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25 KT AND
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT.
OUTLOOK: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST. AS THE SYSTEM
REDEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH, WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG COASTAL REGIONS
OF SE VA/NE VA WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER THE LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS BEHIND IT, ALLOWING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 420 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- GALE WARNINGS HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER BAY, SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT.
- ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ERN
CANADA, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
WINDS WERE NE OR E 5-15 KT OVER THE WATERS. WAVES WERE 1-3 FT
AND SEAS WERE 4-6 FT.
E TO NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN.
THEN, EXPECT MARINE CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING, AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS
INTO EASTERN NC. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
OFF THE COAST DURING FRI. THE E-NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
ON THE BAY/OCEAN (W/ GUSTS TO 30 KT) BY LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING NE THEN N ON FRI, AS THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE.
WITH RATHER SHARP PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW, EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH
40 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND SE
VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS BY 4-7 AM FRI, AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE
THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING-EARLY FRI AFTN. FARTHER NORTH, SOLID
SCA CONDITIONS (25-35 KT GUSTS) ARE EXPECTED. SO, NOW HAVE
GALE WARNINGS FOR THE LOWER BAY, COASTAL WATERS S OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND FROM 1 AM FRI
THROUGH EARLY-LATE FRI AFTN. ELSEWHERE, SCAS ARE IN EFFECT
(INCLUDING THE UPPER RIVERS). IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
WIND FORECAST FRI MORNING DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW, AND THERE IS STILL A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN OUR LOCAL PROBABILISTIC WIND GUIDANCE, WHICH
SHOWS A HIGH BUT NOT CERTAIN (60-90%) CHANCE OF GALE FORCE (34+
KT) GUSTS. ALSO, THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF STORM
FORCE GUSTS SOUTH OF CAPE HENRY (WHICH WOULD ONLY HAPPEN IF THE
LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH AND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED).
THEREFORE, IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT BY LATE FRI, AS WINDS BECOME
NNW BEHIND THE LOW, BUT WINDS SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT (W/ GUSTS TO
30 KT) ARE EXPECTED FROM FRI EVENING-SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SUN, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE AREA. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON/TUE.
SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT THROUGH TODAY, BEFORE BUILDING TO 7-11 FT
(HIGHEST SOUTH) BY FRI. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOUTH OF CAPE HENRY. WAVES BUILD TO 3-6 FT (HIGHEST AT
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS WELL. SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD FALL TO ~4 FT BY LATE
SUN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST TIDAL SHORES
OF THE AREA.
- MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM KIPTOPEKE
SOUTH TO VA BEACH AND DUCK. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED
TO WARNINGS FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF WINDMILL PT/WACHAPREAGUE FOR
FRIDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUING UP
THE RAPPAHANNOCK TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UP TO
WEST POINT.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT FULL MOON. MEANWHILE, TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
INCREASE BEGINNING TODAY, BUT ESPECIALLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST.
NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY TODAY. HAVE ISSUED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG THE LOWER
BAY/ATLANTIC COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, AND HAVE ADDED COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENTS FARTHER N AS SOME STRONGER FLOOD TIDES HAVE RESULTED IN
INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES.
BY THE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY FRIDAY,
THE DEGREE OF TIDAL FLOODING IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH, TIMING,
AND DURATION OF NE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE.
WITH THE 00Z/14 GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE LOW, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TIDAL FLOODING IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF TAPPAHANNOCK/WINDMILL
PT/WACHAPREAGUE, WITH LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM
KIPTOPEKE SOUTH TO VA BEACH AND THE NRN OUTER BANKS. AS SUCH, HAVE
UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS FOR
FRIDAY'S HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FROM
WINDMILL POINT TO TAPPAHANNOCK, AND HAVE BEEN ADDED TO WEST POINT
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT MORE UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
(LIKELY ADVISORIES) WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD ERN
SHORE AND TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW WITH STATEMENTS
IN EFFECT TODAY. OF NOTE, ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ALONE FRIDAY
MORNING ARE WITHIN ~1FT OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE, 1.5-
2.0FT OF SURGE EASILY PUTS MANY SITES WELL INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE
AND INTO MODERATE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CHES. BAY AND
OCEAN S OF OYSTER, AND 2.0-2.5FT OF SURGE CORRESPONDING TO FRIDAY
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE WOULD RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ099.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
085-089-090-093-521-522-524.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ076-
078-085-089-090-093-521-522-524.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ083-084-
086-095>097-100-518-520-523-525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ083-
084-086-518-520-523.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
VAZ095>097-100-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634-638.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634-638-
654.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...ESS/KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...ERI/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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