754
FXUS61 KAKQ 151102
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
602 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST TODAY, DUE TO ANOTHER LOW OFF THE COAST. DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATED TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING LEAVING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT DRY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THE RAIN.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE HAS REFORMED SOUTH OF
THE AREA ALONG THE NC COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES FOR
MOST OF THE REGION EAST OF I-85 AND I-95. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN
HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-64, WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER AWAY FROM
SHORE, RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA WILL DECREASE. AFTER DAYBREAK, THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN, WHILE
SE VA/ NE NC HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCE POSITIONED CLOSER TO
THE LOW UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SHIFTING FROM THE N TO NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WON'T RISE
MUCH TODAY AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50
(TOWARDS THE COAST WILL REACH UPPER 50S). OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A DRY WEEKEND AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN WILL BE PUSHED OUT BY HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOST SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S AND THEN
COOL DOWN TO THE MID 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S, BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AS CLOUDS FORM
RESULTING IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY/MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEK.
- FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WITH BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BEGIN THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE NEXT WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT
NORTHEAST FROM N MX INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY, EVENTUALLY
TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. LOCALLY, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER
70S INLAND.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ON
TUESDAY, A CROSSING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DROP A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND A MODEST COOL DOWN BACK TOWARD CLIMO NORMAL VALUES. A FEW
SHOWERS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS (MAINLY) THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA TUESDAY EVENING, AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
REGION. EITHER WAY, EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT, WITH MINIMAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION AND AS CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OHIO
VALLEY SYSTEM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE EAST COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE SFC LOW OCCLUDING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS THEN PUSH THE ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WED
AFTN, WITH BETTER CHANCES AS THE FRONT CROSSES WED NIGHT INTO THU.
REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70, LOWS IN THE U40S
TO M50S.
FOR THU AND BEYOND, GEPS/EPS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/GEFS IDEA
OF A BROADER/DEEPER UPPER TROUGH BUILDING EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THIS WOULD TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD
A COOLER SOLUTION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COOL
AND GUSTY W-NW WINDS PROMOTING QUICK DRYING, AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS
INTO THE NORTHEAST THU INTO FRIDAY. LINGERED POPS INTO THU/THU AFTN
FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL TIMING/DISCONTINUITIES BEFORE TAPERING OFF THU
NIGHT. COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON THU WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S ON FRIDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
EARLY THU MORNING, AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FRI MORNING.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...
RAIN IS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE IS NOW
OFF THE NC COAST. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MOST WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR ARE
OUT OF THE RAIN (INCLUDING RIC AND SBY), WHILE ECG, ORF, AND PHF
CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 14Z-16Z/15. CIGS ARE LOWEST IN
THE AREA BEHIND THE RAIN, WITH RIC CURRENTLY IN IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHER MAJOR TERMINALS ARE IN MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN CONTINUES
WITH PERIODICAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER RAIN ENDS, MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH ALL MAJOR TERMINALS REACHING VFR
CONDITIONS BY 23Z/15. WINDS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM THE N/NNE TO
THE NNW/NW AT 10-15 KT (WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR SE VA/ NE NC
TERMINALS LIKE ECG AND ORF) AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF-SHORE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES BY
THE END OF THE 12Z/15 TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 420 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AFFECTS THE AREA INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER BAY, SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND INTO OR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH
GUSTS 35-40 KT.
- ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING, SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE NC COAST.
WINDS WERE NE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS WERE 4-7 FT
AND WAVES WERE 2-3 FT. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES OUT TO SEA DURING TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING NNW THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING WHILE
STARTING TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. WHILE THE LATEST 00Z/15 GUIDANCE
IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW (AND OVERALL
SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH RESPECT TO WINDS), STILL EXPECTING WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH NEAR 40 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND SE VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. FARTHER NORTH, SOLID
SCA CONDITIONS (25-30 KT GUSTS) ARE EXPECTED. SO, HAVE NOT MADE
ANY CHANGES TO MARINE WIND HEADLINES, AND WILL KEEP THE GALE
WARNINGS FOR THE LOWER BAY, COASTAL WATERS S OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH EARLY-
LATE THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE, SCAS ARE IN EFFECT (INCLUDING THE
UPPER RIVERS). CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD STILL BE A FEW KT HIGHER (OR
LOWER) THAN EXPECTED.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THIS EVENING, AS WINDS BECOME
NNW BEHIND THE LOW, BUT WINDS SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT (W/ GUSTS TO 30
KT) ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT, BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SUN, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE AREA. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MON/TUE.
SEAS BUILD TO 7-10 FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) TODAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF CAPE HENRY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAVES BUILD TO 3-6 FT (HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AND SHOULD FALL TO ~4 FT BY LATE
SUN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 435 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF TAPPAHANNOCK/WINDMILL
PT/WACHAPREAGUE FOR THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
- MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY, WITH LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM
KIPTOPEKE SOUTH TO VA BEACH AND DUCK.
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT ABOVE ASTRO TIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING, AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE OF THE NC OBX. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE
TIDAL POTOMAC AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE (BOTH THE BAY SIDE AND
THE ATLANTIC COAST SIDE). COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TIDAL YORK, JAMES AND
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS (JAMESTOWN/TAPPAHANNOCK/WINDMILL
PT/WACHAPREAGUE) AS WELL AS THE VA EASTERN SHORE. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS, WITH
LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING FROM KIPTOPEKE SOUTH TO LYNNHAVEN/VA
BEACH TO THE NRN NC OUTER BANKS. ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS
LIKELY WITH THE FOLLOWING TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY, THOUGH AS ANOMALIES EASE, EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING, WITH SPOTTY MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE. WATER
LEVELS THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR MOST SITES THIS WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ024-025.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ017-102.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ075-
077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ099.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ095-098.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ076-
078-083>086-089-090-093-518-520>524.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ095>097-100-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
650-652.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-634-638-
654.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...ERI/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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