924
FXUS61 KAKQ 161437
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 930 AM EST SATURDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND MIDDLE/NORTHERN NECK THIS MORNING BUT THESE
SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL A VERY PLEASANT FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ~1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXTENDING
FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER
WAS OVER THE REGION UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS
WERE RANGING THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE (SFC/ALOFT) WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION DURING
TODAY. UNDER A SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE IN THE LOWER 60S. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SC CLOUDS
NEAR THE BAY OR ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE (SFC/ALOFT) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT. TONIGHT, THE HIGH WILL BRING IN ANOTHER QUICK SURGE
OF COLDER AND DIRER AIR, RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S INLAND/PIEDMONT, AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NEAR/ALONG
THE COAST. WITH CALM WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS, THERE COULD
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
SRN VA. ON SUN, THE HIGH WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. UNDER A
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MON WILL BE WARMER, AS WEAKER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY MON NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE 00Z/16 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE EURO, GFS, AND CMC HAVE
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING, BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. THEN, WED INTO THU MORNING, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO A
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THEY STILL DISAGREE WITH POP
CHANCES AND POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OF THE POTENTIALLY STRONG
DEEPENING LOW TO OUR WNW. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF OUR
REGION GETTING HIT WITH THE POTENTIAL DRY SLOT OF THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW,
HAVE POPS BETWEEN 20-40%. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, CONFIDENCE
SHOULD INCREASE ON POP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE DRY
SLOT SOLUTION ALSO PANS OUT, THIS WOULD LEAD TO A COOLER
SOLUTION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COOL AND
GUSTY W-NW WINDS PROMOTING QUICK DRYING, AS THE UPPER LOW
SWINGS INTO THE NORTHEAST THU INTO FRI. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TUE, IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WED, IN THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60 THU, AND MAINLY IN THE MID 50S FRI. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUE NIGHT, RANGING THROUGH THE 40S
WED NIGHT, AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THU NIGHT.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EST SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SUN, LEADING TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
BUT, WILL HAVE TO WATCH ORF (AND POTENTIALLY ECG/PHF) FOR
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR BAY STREAMERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY SKC
IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FROM ~15-16Z TODAY AND BEYOND, AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NNW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND ~20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THIS WEEKEND, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE REGION.
MARINE
AS OF 425 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH LATER TODAY, WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS APPEARS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR NORTH, WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE (~994MB) WELL OFF
SOUTHEAST COAST, JUST NW OF BERMUDA. MEANWHILE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
(1022+MB) CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. OBS AS OF THIS WRITING SHOWING NNW WINDS
15- 20 KT (W/ GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND JUST
OFFSHORE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT N/5-8 FT S.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLOWLY SLACKENS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE WEST. SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER RIVERS THROUGH MIDDAY,
AND FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND INTO THIS EVENING. THE
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO ~10-15 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SEAS CONTINUE ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, FALLING
TO 3-4 FT NORTH, 4-6 FT S, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES RUNNING
THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES, AND INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING
FROM CAPE CHARLES SOUTH.
BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE, WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS ~10 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH FAIR TO GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONG LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK
JUST TO OUR NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS. WHILE TIMING IS STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN, TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME RANGE, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS APPEARS LIKELY, STARTING WED NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S-SW WED NIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE W
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU-FRI. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS, STRONG SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY, WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS EARLY AS WED EVENING, BUT MORE
LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 425 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WHILE WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL THIS WEEKEND,
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT/SATURDAY, WITH LOCALLY MODERATE TIDAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM KIPTOPEKE SOUTH TO VA BEACH AND DUCK.
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING STILL OCCURRING ALONG MOST OF
OUR TIDAL COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON'S TIDE CYCLE FOR
ALL BUT THE UPPER BAY (TIDAL POTOMAC AND BAY SIDE OF THE MD
EASTERN SHORE. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES THIS MORNING
FOR EASTERN CURRITUCK COUNTY...AS DUCK IS EXPECTED TO SEE
MODERATE FLOODING WITH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. WATER LEVELS STILL LOOK TO SLOWLY FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE FOR MOST SITES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ099-100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ076-078-083>086-089-090-093-095>098-518-520>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG/MRD
SHORT TERM...HET/TMG
LONG TERM...HET/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ERI/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page