108
FXUS61 KAKQ 170910
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, THEN A WEAKER HIGH WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AS A WARM
FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 355 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF SE VA AND NE NC WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
CONTINUES.
- DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMALS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SWRD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. UNDER A CLEAR
SKY, TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THE RIDGE ALOFT/SFC HIGH BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE REGION DURING
TODAY, RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE NORMALS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
(ESPECIALLY) AND TUESDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S NNW, TO THE MID 40S ESE. WARMER ON MON, AS A WEAKER
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ON
MON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY MON NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING TUE, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATER TUE AFTN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- TURNING MUCH COOLER AND BLUSTERY ON THURSDAY
- CONTINUED COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT, THE DETERMINISTIC
AND SUPER ENSEMBLE SUGGEST HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST BREAKING DOWN AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY THU, THEN SLOWLY MOVES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SAT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU
MORNING, ESPLY ACROSS THE NORTH, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD
WITH ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW. THIS SHOULD
MOSTLY MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THU MORNING, WITH COOL AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ESPLY FRI AND SAT. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WED, RANGING THROUGH THE 50S
THU, AND MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI AND SAT.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EST SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FROM THIS MORNING INTO MON MORNING.
EXPECT SKC OR SCT CI THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NW OR N
LESS THAN 10 KT, BECOMING W THEN SW.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL FROM MON INTO TUE MORNING.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING. SUB- SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- STRONG LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THEN
FOLLOWS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG SCA WINDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 1023+MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THIS MORNING. ALOFT, A DEEP TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, AS A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OBS AND BUOY REPORTS
SHOWING NNW WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WITH THE SLACKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 KT, WITH SOME GUSTS TO
~20 KT STILL EVIDENT OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN MOST
OF THE CHES BAY WITH 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-4 FT
N TO 4-5 FT S.
WILL ALLOW SCA TO DROP OFF ON TIME OVER THE BAY WITH THE
ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL ALSO
TRIM OFF SCA NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DROPPING OFF STEADILY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, THEN CONTINUING TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. RESULTANT SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NNW TODAY ~10 KT, BECOME W-SW THIS EVENING.
WINDS VEER BACK TO THE W-NW ~10-15 KT FOR MONDAY, THEN VEER
AROUND TO THE E-NE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS A WEAK FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. S-SE RETURN FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE COAST, THEN S-SW ON WED AS THE
HIGH SLIDES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TURNING BREEZY AGAIN
BY WED AFTN, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SLIDE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY, WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG W/SW WINDS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST LARGELY STAYS IN PLACE. LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE THRESHOLDS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU MORNING, LIKELY IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE REGARDING EXACT TIMING. WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES
WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BAY. SEAS INCREASE
TO 3-6 FT WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW FAVORING THE HIGHER SEAS
FARTHER OUT TOWARD THE 10-20 NM END OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
ZONES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO EASE THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME
NUISANCE-TYPE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, EXPECT TIDES REMAIN
BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ013>016-
030>032.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ093-096-097.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/MRD
LONG TERM...TMG/MRD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
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