072
FXUS61 KAKQ 180604
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
104 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 945 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- DRY AND NOT QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
BROAD 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S.
CONTINUED DRY TONIGHT WITH ~1020MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE RIDING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT
IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF, THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE LOW AND MID 40S
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE
AREA.
- CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE SE OFF THE GA COAST ON MONDAY
WITH WINDS LOCALLY BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/NW BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCH UPWARD A FEW DEGREES WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SW AS DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INCHES EASTWARD. WARM
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY A TRACE TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH A
FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SHARPLY S AND SE ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS NEAR OR JUST N OF
THE LOCAL AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SE WITH IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS ALOFT POTENTIALLY COMPENSATING
FOR THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, AS
DRY/COLD ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AREA-WIDE DESPITE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
DRY AND COOL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS FINALLY START TO SLACKEN OFF SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S INLAND WITH UPPER 30S NEAR
THE COAST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WINDS BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING, THEN NNW OR W WINDS INCREASE A BIT BY THIS AFTN, BUT
LIKELY STAYING IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST. LOWER CIGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING, ESPLY AT THE SRN TAF
SITES, DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH. THEN, A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE WED INTO THU
MORNING, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LINGERING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG SCA WINDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS. ALOFT, A DEEP TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, AS A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF
CALMER WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAINS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST ~10 KT
BECOME W-SW THIS EVENING. WINDS VEER BACK TO THE W-NW ~10-15 KT
FOR MONDAY, THEN AROUND TO THE E-NE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ALLOWING THE W-NW WIND TO BECOME N-NE,
BUT REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 15 KT.
S-SE RETURN FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, THEN S-SW ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CONDITIONS TURNING BREEZY
BY WED AFTN, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY.
RAPIDLY INCREASINGLY W/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30 KT WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY AS OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST LARGELY STAYS
IN PLACE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KT WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND PRESSURE RISES JUMP AND COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH. LOCAL
WIND PROBABILITIES SHOW INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
APPROACH GALE THRESHOLDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WAVES ON THE BAY WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO 4 FT ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE TO 3-6 FT WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW FAVORING THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER OUT TOWARD THE
10-20 NM END OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES.
STRONG WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH A DECREASING
TREND INTO SUNDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJB/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/JAO
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