202
FXUS61 KAKQ 181933
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
233 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SEASONABLY COOL TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LIFTS NORTHWARD.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE
FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO 0.2".
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS OCCLUDES. A BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL TRY TO DROP S AND SW ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. 12Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. NOT AS COOL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES N TO THE MID AND UPPER
50S S.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DIVE SE LATE WEDNESDAY, CAUSING AND AREA OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH INLAND OVERNIGHT WHILE AREAS
NEAR THE COAST WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35
MPH. COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPS
NEAR SUNRISE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.
WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN GUST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED. AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY A RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND POPS REMAINING BELOW 15% ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND
SEASONABLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM A LITTLE NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH HIGHS MOVING BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE MAIN TERMINALS BUT
REMAIN NW 5-10 KT AT SBY. EXPECT ALL SITES TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: LOWER CIGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUE INTO WED MORNING, ESPLY AT THE SRN TAF SITES. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE WED INTO THU
MORNING, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LINGERING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PREVAILING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WIND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASING WEDNESDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG SCA WINDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS RESULTING
IN A LIGHT W-SW WIND OF 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES ON THE BAY WERE
GENERALLY 1 FT OR LESS WITH 2 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. W-SW WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THEN N-NE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE JUST A LITTLE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AT 10-15 KT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LOWER BAY AND
THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH S-SE
FLOW RETURNING FOR ALL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY WILL START WITH LIGHT S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION,
THEN CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO BECOME A BIT MORE BREEZY BY MID-
LATE WED AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE TRAINING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WATERS FROM JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
THROUGH 3 AM. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
THEN BEGINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. RAPIDLY INCREASINGLY
W/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30 (OCCASIONALLY 35 KT)
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY, AS OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
35-40 KT WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SHARP PRESSURE RISES AND COLDER AIR SURGING SOUTH. LOCAL WIND
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE THRESHOLDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU MORNING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WAVES ON THE BAY WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO 3-4 FT
ON THURSDAY (TO 5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND LOWER BAY),
WITH PERSISTENT E SWELL KEEPING THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND. WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE TO 3-6 FT WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW
FAVORING THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER OUT TOWARD THE 10-20 NM END OF
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES.
STRONG W-NW WINDS (15-25 KT) PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLOW
DECREASING TREND SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF (AT
LEAST) STRONG SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/JAO
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