104
FXUS61 KAKQ 190849
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY.
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, USHERING
IN COLDER, DRIER AIR FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- MILD ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
- LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95,
INCREASING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1018+MB HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED DROPPING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, THOUGH THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS MORNING W/WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE. ALOFT, AN
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH A SHARP
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NNW INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. TO THE WEST, A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO EJECT NE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL TAKE ON MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
TODAY, AND WILL ALSO SERVE TO DAMPEN THE DOWNSTREAM EAST COAST
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE POTENT MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS OCCLUDES LATER
TODAY. AS IT DOES SO, THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP
FURTHER S/SW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS HAVE BACKED
OFF W/RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND RAIN
CHANCES HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN PUSHED OFF A BIT INTO THE LATER
AFTERNOON. STILL THINK SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHES
INTO THE AREA IN THE FORM OF SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS (30-40% POP) MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER 5-6 PM
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE RIC METRO
AND EASTERN SHORE/HAMPTON ROADS AREAS IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS, RESPECTIVELY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE NC HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. NOT AS COOL TONIGHT
WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES N TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE
FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO 0.2".
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LOCAL AREA WILL SPEND MOST OF WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR,
AND WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE MILD DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.
MEANWHILE, THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DIVES SE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, PROMPTING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS LOW
QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, USHERING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE AFTER 00Z/THU
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE THU MORNING). ANY SHOWERS END QUICKLY
POST-FRONTAL, AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A BROAD MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION PUTTING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 20 MPH INLAND OVERNIGHT WHILE AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPS NEAR
SUNRISE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK ACROSS
THE REGION.
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL ENSEMBLES FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BLUSTERY NW WINDS
THAT WILL PERSIST THU/FRI AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS EAST IN ITS PLACE, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY RELAXES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND POPS REMAINING BELOW 15% ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT SAID, AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY TRUNDLES ACROSS THE
AREA FRI/SAT, DECENT LIFT AND SOME LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS EACH DAY, W/SOME SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL
AND SEASONABLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM A LITTLE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGHS MOVING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 06Z PERIOD
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH GRADUALLY THICKENING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD, BUT MAY
INCREASE TO 5-8 KT FOR A TIME AFTER 16-18Z TUESDAY OUT OF THE
E-NE, VEERING TO THE SSE BY EVENING. CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
AND LOWER IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT FORECAST CLOUD
BASES REMAIN 10,000+ FT AGL THROUGH 22-00Z (5-7 PM EST).
OUTLOOK: LOWER CIGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER TUE EVENING INTO WED MORNING, BEFORE BRIEFLY TAPERING
OFF. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINALS
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 340 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, THE VA AND
MD COASTAL WATERS, AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR NW WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NW IA. WINDS WERE GENERALLY NW/N
5-10 KT. WINDS BECOME N, EVENTUALLY TURNING TO E LATER THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND BEFORE ERODING. A PERIOD
OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH WED WITH WINDS
BECOMING S TONIGHT AND REMAINING GENERALLY 5-10 KT (BRIEFLY 10-15 KT
TONIGHT). WAVES AND SEAS WERE ~1 FT AND ~2 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS
MORNING. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 4-5 FT.
S WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WED EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES E ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT,
BRINGING A SURGE OF GALE-FORCE NW WINDS WITH IT (25-30 KT WITH GUSTS
35-40 KT). THIS SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF WITH WINDS
BECOMING W 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THU MORNING THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH (AND GIVEN WIND PROBS FOR GUSTS >34 KT OF >50%),
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 PM WED THROUGH 6 AM THU FOR THE
CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
WIND PROBS WERE LOWER ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS (30% FOR MOST OF
THE ZONE) AND AS SUCH HAVE GONE WITH SCAS FOR NOW. WILL NOTE THAT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS >34 KT REMAINS POSSIBLE HERE (BEST CHANCE
OFFSHORE) WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE GALE WATCH POSSIBLE IF NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS STRONGER. OTHERWISE, WILL LIKELY HANDLE ANY SURGE
HERE WITH SMWS GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION. SCAS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE UPPER RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND. A SERIES OF REINFORCING
CAA SURGES FROM EMBEDDED TROUGHS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONTS WILL KEEP
WINDS ELEVATED (AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA) INTO SUN. A FEW OF THESE
SURGES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PERIODS OF GALE CONDITIONS
(PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS) WITH WIND PROBS FOR >34 KT
GUSTS SHOWING UP FOR LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. HOWEVER, EACH OF THESE SURGES LOOKS TO REMAIN
SEPARATED ENOUGH (TEMPORALLY) FROM THE PREVIOUS TO REFRAIN FROM A
LONG DURATION GALE WATCH. INSTEAD, WILL LIKELY HANDLE EACH SURGE
SEPARATELY DEPENDING ON HOW MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS. REGARDLESS, PLAN
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST STRONG SCA WIND AND ELEVATED SEAS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ633-635>637-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM/RHR
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/SW
MARINE...RMM
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