791
FXUS61 KAKQ 192036
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES LINGERS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, USHERING IN COLDER, DRIER AIR FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS WI
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95, INCREASING FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD FOR TONIGHT WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER.
AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE HAS WEEKEND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS SLOWLY MOVED
INTO THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
HAS WEEKEND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS CURRENTLY AT 1014MB. HOWEVER, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FETCH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES AS OF
230PM HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS VA/NC
AND LOWER 60S ACROSS DELMARVA. THROUGHOUT THE DAY HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE IS FETCHED INTO THE AREA. LOOKING AT 850MB
ON SPC MESO WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESCIENT ACROSS THE
REGION HELPING TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS FLOW
IT WILL HELP TRANSITION A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO A WARM
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT ON ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON THIS EVENING. WITH
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND SEEING THE METEOROLOGICAL INGREDIENTS
COMING TOGETHER POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. SHOWERS COULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AFTER
5-6 PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING, SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE RIC METRO
AND EASTERN SHORE/HAMPTON ROADS AREAS IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS, RESPECTIVELY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE NC HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S UP NORTH AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE
FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO 0.2".
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOCAL AREA WILL SPEND MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THAT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S DESPISE THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL GO THROUGH CYCOLOGENISS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY. THEN
THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST CAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. WILL NOTE, THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
HEAVY CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE AS WELL AS ROUGHLY 500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE STRONGER WAA WILL OCCUR.
ANY SHOWERS END QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL, AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
BROAD MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION PUTTING AN
END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH INLAND OVERNIGHT WHILE AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TEMPS NEAR SUNRISE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE 12Z/19 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A STRONG THROUGH WILL HAVE DOUGH
IN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC KEEPING THE REGION IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN AND THE SURFACE THROUGH EXITS THE AREA. POPS
REMAIN THE FORECAST BUT ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED ALONG THE SHORE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POPS
DO NOT EXCEED ABOVE 15%. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND SEASONABLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM
A LITTLE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH HIGHS MOVING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EST TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 18Z
PERIOD LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OUT OF THE S THEN SW AND THESE WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CLOUD BASES REMAIN 10,000+ FT
AGL THROUGH 22-00Z (5-7 PM EST), BECOMING 5-10 KFT AGL LATE THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO WED MORNING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY LOOK TO LINGER FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 340 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, THE VA AND
MD COASTAL WATERS, AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR NW WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NW IA. WINDS WERE GENERALLY NW/N
5-10 KT. WINDS BECOME N, EVENTUALLY TURNING TO E LATER THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND BEFORE ERODING. A PERIOD
OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH WED WITH WINDS
BECOMING S TONIGHT AND REMAINING GENERALLY 5-10 KT (BRIEFLY 10-15 KT
TONIGHT). WAVES AND SEAS WERE ~1 FT AND ~2 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS
MORNING. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 4-5 FT.
S WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WED EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES E ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT,
BRINGING A SURGE OF GALE-FORCE NW WINDS WITH IT (25-30 KT WITH GUSTS
35-40 KT). THIS SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF WITH WINDS
BECOMING W 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THU MORNING THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH (AND GIVEN WIND PROBS FOR GUSTS >34 KT OF >50%),
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 PM WED THROUGH 6 AM THU FOR THE
CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
WIND PROBS WERE LOWER ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS (30% FOR MOST OF
THE ZONE) AND AS SUCH HAVE GONE WITH SCAS FOR NOW. WILL NOTE THAT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS >34 KT REMAINS POSSIBLE HERE (BEST CHANCE
OFFSHORE) WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE GALE WATCH POSSIBLE IF NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS STRONGER. OTHERWISE, WILL LIKELY HANDLE ANY SURGE
HERE WITH SMWS GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION. SCAS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE UPPER RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND. A SERIES OF REINFORCING
CAA SURGES FROM EMBEDDED TROUGHS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONTS WILL KEEP
WINDS ELEVATED (AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA) INTO SUN. A FEW OF THESE
SURGES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PERIODS OF GALE CONDITIONS
(PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS) WITH WIND PROBS FOR >34 KT
GUSTS SHOWING UP FOR LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. HOWEVER, EACH OF THESE SURGES LOOKS TO REMAIN
SEPARATED ENOUGH (TEMPORALLY) FROM THE PREVIOUS TO REFRAIN FROM A
LONG DURATION GALE WATCH. INSTEAD, WILL LIKELY HANDLE EACH SURGE
SEPARATELY DEPENDING ON HOW MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS. REGARDLESS, PLAN
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST STRONG SCA WIND AND ELEVATED SEAS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 500 AM EST TUESDAY...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE (CRISFIELD AND
BISHOPS HEAD) WITH UP TO ONE FOOT OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NUISANCE
FLOODING AT BAYFORD THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
FOR COASTAL FLOODING HEADLINES GIVEN NEARBY GAUGES NOT FORECAST
TO REACH NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE, WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE WED AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WHICH APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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