868
FXUS61 KAKQ 202035
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
335 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL USHER IN COLDER, DRIER AIR ON BLUSTERY NW WINDS FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND KEEPING
THE REGION DRY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 325 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN RE-DEVELOPS AREA WIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING.
- GUSTY W-NW WINDS DEVELOP POST-FRONTAL, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH
INLAND/25-35 MPH COASTAL AREAS AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE AREA.
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
DIGGING IN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE AREA
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED DUE TO THE TROUGH AND THE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS AT THE
SURFACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTH EAST COAST CONTINUES TO FETCH IN MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 230PM HAVE STAYED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DUE
TO THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE REMAINS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DRIZZLE/SHOWER BEFORE THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA LATER TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. FROM THE LATEST
ANALYSIS THE SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. ONCE THIS LOW TRULY BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 7-10PM TONIGHT.
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE STRONG FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. HOWEVER, CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE LINE. WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING AND WAA AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND A BROAD MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
PUTTING AN END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 KT ACROSS DELMARVA. WITH DECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE WIND GUSTS KNOCKING DOWN TREES AND
BRANCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND LAST
BETWEEN 1 TO THREE HOURS. ONCE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH
THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIE DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN
BREEZY.
BEGINS THE FRONT TONIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THESE
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO COOL DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 325 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS
AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH (HIGHEST COASTAL AREAS).
- BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
THE STRONG THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS THE AREA TO START
DRYING OUT THURSDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSING ALONG THE TROUGH ALLOWING
MULTIPLE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE FIRST OF
THESE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, BRINGING ADDITIONAL GUSTY
WINDS, SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN
SHORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY. HIGHS ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 50S THURSDAY. WINDS DO DECOUPLE A BIT INLAND LATER
THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A STARK TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN
INLAND AREAS AND THE COAST. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S INLAND, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE SECOND SHOT
COMES FRIDAY AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COAST. ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE,
BUT WITH DRY MID-LEVELS, DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ARE MORE FAVORED WITH
QPF REMAINING A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. THEN BY FRIDAY EVENING SOME
EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ONLY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 325 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LATEST 20/12Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALLOWING A RIDGE TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
A LITTLE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S BY MIDWEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS WARM BACK INTO THE
40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE
NW. WILL NOTE, BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENSEMBLES DO DISAGREE
WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THEY DO
AGREE ON A POTENTIAL SYSTEM AND POPS REMAIN TN THE FORECAST AND STAY
BETWEEN 15-25%.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1155 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AT RIC/SBY TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LCL LIFR/IFR CIGS NOW NOTED
IN THE PIEDMONT NW OF RIC. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LOWERED TO LOW- END VFR OR MVFR LEVELS, WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR
LIFTING AT RIC BETWEEN 18-22Z AS A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH THIS MORNING. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN THE RIC/SBY
TAF. THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE IFR CIGS LINGER IN THE KRIC
VICINITY, EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO LINGER WITH SPOTTY/ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONTINUING. A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT ORF/ECG, BUT WILL MAINTAIN MVFR FOR NOW.
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AFTER 00Z/21.
WINDS OUT OF THE SSW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, QUICKLY TURNING W-NW
POST FRONTAL AFTER 02-05Z FROM W TO E. SHOWERS, POSSIBLY HEAVY,
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LOOK TO
LINGER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 425 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT DRAGGED
ACROSS OHIO TO GEORGIA. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE AROUND 5 KT BECOMING
S 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT CROSSING COASTAL WATERS 10PM TO 1AM
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS STRONG IN GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY BECOME NW
30-35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH,
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 10PM
TONIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND
THE INITIAL SURGE. A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY, BUT THEN WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS W AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY, BUT A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
INCREASE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT TO W AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
IN THE BAY AND 40 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS HIGH
PROBABILITY (>80%) FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 34 KT FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IN GALE
HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY FOR THIS SURGE. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVES AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 1-2 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT (LOCALLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE).
WAVES AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT IN THE BAY AND 2-4
FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. A RAMP UP ALONG WITH THE WINDS FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH WAVES 3-5 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
VAZ099-100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...KMC
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