682
FXUS61 KAKQ 210919
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
419 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES DROP ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 410 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. NW WINDS AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
30 MPH (HIGHEST COASTAL AREAS).
- REMAINING MAINLY DRY, ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN NECK AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
- A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
INTERIOR NORTHEAST NC AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TIDEWATER
AREA.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG
~996MB SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN, WITH A SECONDARY LOW NOW JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA
COAST.
THE STRONG TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PIVOT SSE INTO
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE AREA
TO START DRYING OUT TODAY ON BREEZY NNW WINDS. THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSING SE ALONG THE TROUGH, THEREBY
ALLOWING MULTIPLE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. THE FIRST
(AND WEAKEST) OF THESE SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTY
WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH, SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WINDS DO DECOUPLE A BIT INLAND LATER THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A STARK TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN INLAND AREAS AND THE
COAST. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND, WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL PUT A NARROW STRIPE
OF COUNTIES STILL ACTIVE IN THE FROST FREEZE PROGRAM WITH LOWS
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED THESE COUNTIES
FROM BERTIE/NORTHAMPTON AND GATES NC UP TO JAMES CITY IN A
FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 410 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS, AND INCREASING CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A FEW
INSTANCES OF GRAUPEL OR EVEN SOME WET SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE COMES FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO BE A BIT
STRONGER/COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE SE COAST. THE LATEST MODELS
DEPICT THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ
PIVOTING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SE ACROSS LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY
RANGE FOR THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE FOR SHOWERS FROM
MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME LOW END
POPS FOR ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR INTO RIC METRO
AND HAMPTON ROADS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
BETWEEN 850-700 MB FARTHER SOUTH, WOULD EXPECT MINIMAL QPF.
HOWEVER,A GOOD PORTION OF THAT MOISTURE LAYER IS WITHIN THE DGZ
AND COULD EASILY RESULT IN SOME GRAUPEL OR EVEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MUCH TOO WARM
FOR ANY IMPACTS, BUT CERTAINLY A SHARP CONTRAST FROM JUST A FEW
DAYS AGO.
DRYING OUT FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, BUT REMAINING BREEZY AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COLD IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RELAX
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 410 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED GRADUALLY MODERATE EACH DAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND UPPER
RIDGING CRESTS OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WARMING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S BY MIDWEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS WARM BACK INTO THE 40S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE NW. WILL NOTE, BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK THE ENSEMBLES DO DISAGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THEY DO AGREE ON A
POTENTIAL SYSTEM AND POPS REMAIN TN THE FORECAST AND STAY
BETWEEN 15-25%.
THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE GULF OF MAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS AND VARIABLE
CIGS TO AREA TERMINALS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TO VFR
INLAND, WITH MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM ECG
TO SBY THROUGH 07-09Z/2-4 AM EST BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR. NW
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT THROUGH AROUND AND JUST AFTER
SUNRISE, THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE W AT 15-18 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
INCREASING AFTN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR,
AVERAGING 6-8 KFT AGL.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY W-NW WINDS CONTINUE FRI-SAT, WITH LESS WIND BY
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN/FRI
NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 410 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT E OF THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WERE NW 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY, COASTAL WATERS, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. AS
SUCH, GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR THESE AREAS.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO SCA LEVEL ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND WHERE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SCAS.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS, EVENTUALLY BECOMING W THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
POTENTIALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH W
WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, W WINDS INCREASE BACK TO 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER BAY WITH THIS SURGE, HOWEVER, WIND
PROBS FOR GUSTS OF 34 KT ARE <40% (LOWER FOR ZONAL AVERAGES).
ADDITIONALLY, THE SURGE LOOKS TO BE BRIEF (~3 HRS). AS SUCH, WILL
REFRAIN FROM ISSUING GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS SURGE AT THIS TIME.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED (ALTHOUGH TRENDING LOWER) INTO FRI BEFORE A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, REINFORCING THE CAA YET AGAIN. WIND PROBS FOR
34 KT GUSTS ARE HIGH FOR THIS SURGE WITH PROBS APPROACHING 100%
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND 70% ACROSS THE CHES BAY. AS SUCH,
EXPECT W WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ACROSS
ALL LOCAL WATERS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WHILE CHANCES
FOR GALE CONDITIONS LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT ARE HIGH, WILL HOLD OFF
ON GALE WATCHES FOR NOW GIVEN ONGOING GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE SAME
ZONES FOR THIS MORNING'S SURGE. HOWEVER, GALE WATCHES FOR LATE FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE NEEDED ONCE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS ARE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE SAT BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WAVES AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND 4-6 FT (LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE)
RESPECTIVELY CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. WAVES
SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT LATER THIS MORNING WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
INTO SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-5 FT WAVES IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRI AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT SURGE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ012>014-030.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ089-090-092-093-096.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
638-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>637.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...HET/LKB/JKP
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RMM
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