819
FXUS61 KAKQ 151127
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
627 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THE LOCAL WEATHER
CHILLY AND CLOUDY TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A WARMING TREND STARTS
MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 620 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA,
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAS
NEARED 1050 (!) MB PER RECENT OBS, CONTINUES TO WEDGE WSW INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT NE FLOW AND A TEXTBOOK
COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) SETUP, WITH PATCHY STRATUS UNDER THE THICKER
CIRRUS DECK. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO
FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE,
WHILE REMAINING IN THE 40S ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC WHERE THERE IS
MORE MARITIME INFLUENCE. ALOFT, THE FLOW IS OUT OF THE WSW
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING BUT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE
LOW-LEVEL CAD. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CHILLY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
PIEDMONT WHERE THE CAD INFLUENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED AND PRECIP
FALLS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 40S NW OF A LVL-RIC-SBY LINE,
WITH LOWER 50S FURTHER SE. IT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S
IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FA, ESPECIALLY IN LOUISA AND FLUVANNA
COUNTIES. AS IS TYPICAL IN CAD SITUATIONS, HIGHS TEND TO
UNDERPERFORM AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE 10-25TH
PERCENTILES FROM THE NBM. REGARDING THE PRECIP, EXPECT SEVERAL
WAVES OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO MOVES SW TO NE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MID-
MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR WRN PIEDMONT COUNTIES, BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME SO EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF PRECIP TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE, WITH LOWER COVERAGE AND POPS FURTHER
SE, THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME
RAIN. RAIN SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT
APPEARS TO BE 0.25" OR LESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S- LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID-
UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT MONDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, EVEN WARMER TUESDAY.
MOST MODELS NOW AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE AREA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE
IN THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO FINALLY MOVE WELL
OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND, ALLOWING THE SFC FLOW LOCALLY TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, A REMNANT WEDGE FRONT WILL AGAIN CREATE
QUITE THE CONTRAST IN TEMPS ACROSS THE FA, WITH 50S NW (LOWER 50S
FAR NW) UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO LOW-MID 60S SE UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. SOME OF THE STATISTICAL AIDS ARE LOWER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT FOR HIGHS SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND A FEW
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THEN. LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THE ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGH IS ALSO NOT
VERY FAVORABLE, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS DURING THIS
PERIOD. CAMS DEPICT SHOWERS SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD
EASTERN SHORE EARLY TUESDAY, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. POPS ARE 30-50% IN
THESE AREAS AND EVEN THAT COULD BE A TAD GENEROUS. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHC POPS ELSEWHERE IN CASE A ROGUE SHOWER CAN FORM FURTHER SW AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS ERN VA/NC. EITHER WAY, IT DRIES OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON. MILD TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AREAWIDE AND
COULD EVEN REACH THE LOWER 70S IN FAR SE VA AND NE NC. NOTE THAT
THERE IS VIRTUALLY ZERO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS "COLD" FRONT.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S BUT COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE N.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A BROAD POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS FAVOR PRECIP CHANCES
REDEVELOPING, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIP E OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE W ALONG THE SFC FRONT. THE
CMC SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE. SO, WILL PAINT
BROAD CHANCE POPS FROM 12-18Z/7 AM-1 PM WEDNESDAY, WITH POPS
INCREASING FURTHER TO 60-70% DURING THE DAY INTO THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. QPF LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
THIS EVENT AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A BROAD 0.25-0.5". THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO END SOONER THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A MORE NOTICEABLE
PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AND DAYTIME HIGHS
TREND BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. LOWS ALSO BECOME QUITE COLD AND IN THE 20S AND 30S,
WITH TEENS POSSIBLE THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SO FAR COULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE BEHIND ANOTHER (DRY) FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EST SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING,
LEADING TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PATCHY AREAS OF LOW-END
VFR STRATUS. EARLIER MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO HAVE MAINLY DISSIPATED.
A BKN CIRRUS DECK ALSO PERSISTS ABOVE ANY LOWER CLOUDS. OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE THEN SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO SUB-VFR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT. RAIN CHANCES ALSO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE BEST CHANCE AT THE TERMINALS
IS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.
HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY, WITH ONLY
PATCHY RAIN/SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEGRADE FURTHER
TONIGHT AND THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT RIC
AND SBY AFTER 06Z. NE WINDS AVERAGE 5-8 KT INLAND AND 8-12 KT
AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING TO 5 KT OR LESS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NW OF KRIC/KSBY. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO HANG ON ALONG THE SE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF SUB-
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC,
MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
STRONG 1048MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS GENERALLY NE
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT, AND NE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT S OF
THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-4FT N TO ~6FT OFF THE CURRITUCK
OUTER BANKS, WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY, AND 3-4FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE HIGH BUILDS ESE TODAY AND BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND 'WEAKENS' TO ~1042MB.
THE WIND WILL BECOME E TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SOME ACROSS THE
THE MARINE AREA AS THE STRONG HIGH NUDGES IN FROM THE N, ESPECIALLY
N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. THEREFORE, THE SCAS FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND
CHES. BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 4 AM. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6FT N TO 6-7FT S TODAY WHILE WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY REMAIN 3-4FT. SCAS FOR THE OCEAN REMAIN IN
EFFECT S OF CAPE CHARLES, GO INTO EFFECT FROM CAPE CHARLES TO
CHINCOTEAGUE AT 4 AM, AND GO INTO EFFECT FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO
FENWICK IS. AT 7 AM. THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT PRIMARILY FOR 3-4FT WAVES, WITH THE SCA
FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN.
THE WIND DIMINISHES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER
OFFSHORE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LAGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND SCAS
FOR THE OCEAN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE COAST LATER TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SW WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN
15KT. OVERALL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN
5FT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ652-654-656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
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