186
FXUS61 KAKQ 151748
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1248 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THE LOCAL WEATHER
CHILLY AND CLOUDY TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A WARMING TREND STARTS
MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA,
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1045MB) IS CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A CAD REGIME FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS IN/OH, BUT THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH OF A REFLECTION OF
THIS AT THE SFC. NEVERTHELESS, LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE HAS ARRIVED AND LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE
CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT AS THE LOW-LEVELS ARE SLOWLY SATURATING.
THERE WERE SPOTTER REPORTS OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN ACROSS LOUISA
COUNTY THIS MORNING, BUT NO IMPACTS HAVE OCCURRED GIVEN TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE, IT IS OVERCAST AND DRY (SO
FAR) WITH AN E-NE WIND OF 5-15 MPH. TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET
OUT OF THE 30S ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA, WITH 40S TO LOWER
50S FARTHER E/SE. THAT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK TO OUR
NORTH THIS EVENING-TONIGHT AS THE CAD REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE. AS THIS OCCURS, LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO OUR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC COUNTIES. RAIN
SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE 0.25"
OR LESS, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST SOUTH OF
A CLARKSVILLE-PETERSBURG-WILLIAMSBURG-MELFA LINE. TEMPS WILL
RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY
FALL A FEW DEGREES AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S-LOWER 40S INLAND
TO MID-UPPER 40S IN SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT MONDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, EVEN WARMER TUESDAY.
MOST MODELS NOW AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE AREA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE
IN THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO FINALLY MOVE WELL
OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND, ALLOWING THE SFC FLOW LOCALLY TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, A REMNANT WEDGE FRONT WILL AGAIN CREATE
QUITE THE CONTRAST IN TEMPS ACROSS THE FA, WITH 50S NW (LOWER 50S
FAR NW) UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO LOW-MID 60S SE UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. SOME OF THE STATISTICAL AIDS ARE LOWER ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT FOR HIGHS SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND A FEW
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THEN. LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THE ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGH IS ALSO NOT
VERY FAVORABLE, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS DURING THIS
PERIOD. CAMS DEPICT SHOWERS SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD
EASTERN SHORE EARLY TUESDAY, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. POPS ARE 30-50% IN
THESE AREAS AND EVEN THAT COULD BE A TAD GENEROUS. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHC POPS ELSEWHERE IN CASE A ROGUE SHOWER CAN FORM FURTHER SW AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS ERN VA/NC. EITHER WAY, IT DRIES OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON. MILD TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AREAWIDE AND
COULD EVEN REACH THE LOWER 70S IN FAR SE VA AND NE NC. NOTE THAT
THERE IS VIRTUALLY ZERO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS "COLD" FRONT.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S BUT COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE N.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A BROAD POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS FAVOR PRECIP CHANCES
REDEVELOPING, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIP E OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP FURTHER TO THE W ALONG THE SFC FRONT. THE
CMC SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE. SO, WILL PAINT
BROAD CHANCE POPS FROM 12-18Z/7 AM-1 PM WEDNESDAY, WITH POPS
INCREASING FURTHER TO 60-70% DURING THE DAY INTO THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. QPF LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
THIS EVENT AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A BROAD 0.25-0.5". THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO END SOONER THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A MORE NOTICEABLE
PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AND DAYTIME HIGHS
TREND BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. LOWS ALSO BECOME QUITE COLD AND IN THE 20S AND 30S,
WITH TEENS POSSIBLE THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SO FAR COULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE BEHIND ANOTHER (DRY) FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTN,
LEADING TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR
STRATUS INVOF ORF/ECG. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE W/NW OF THE
TERMINALS SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD LATER TODAY-TONIGHT...AND
SHOULD IMPACT RIC/SBY BETWEEN 00-12Z. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A
FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT IN SE VA/NE NC. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. CIGS GRADUALLY FALL TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY
WHERE LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED). IN FACT, A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS
LIKELY AT RIC/SBY AFTER 06-08Z, WHILE PREVAILING CIGS LIKELY
DROP TO MVFR AT PHF/ORF. VSBYS IN THE RAIN WILL LIKELY DROP TO
MVFR AT RIC/SBY. E-NE WINDS AVERAGE 8-12 KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT-MON.
EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN EXITS MONDAY MORNING, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT RIC/SBY/PHF,
BUT CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY MON AFTN AT ORF/ECG. COULD SEE
CIGS DROP TO IFR AGAIN MON NIGHT, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUE, WITH
CIGS NO WORSE THAN MVFR. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EST SUNDAY...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC,
MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
STRONG 1048MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS GENERALLY NE
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT, AND NE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT S OF
THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-4FT N TO ~6FT OFF THE CURRITUCK
OUTER BANKS, WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY, AND 3-4FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE HIGH BUILDS ESE TODAY AND BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND 'WEAKENS' TO ~1042MB.
THE WIND WILL BECOME E TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SOME ACROSS THE
THE MARINE AREA AS THE STRONG HIGH NUDGES IN FROM THE N, ESPECIALLY
N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. THEREFORE, THE SCAS FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND
CHES. BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 4 AM. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6FT N TO 6-7FT S TODAY WHILE WAVES
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY REMAIN 3-4FT. SCAS FOR THE OCEAN REMAIN IN
EFFECT S OF CAPE CHARLES, GO INTO EFFECT FROM CAPE CHARLES TO
CHINCOTEAGUE AT 4 AM, AND GO INTO EFFECT FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO
FENWICK IS. AT 7 AM. THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT PRIMARILY FOR 3-4FT WAVES, WITH THE SCA
FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN.
THE WIND DIMINISHES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER
OFFSHORE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LAGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND SCAS
FOR THE OCEAN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE COAST LATER TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SW WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN
15KT. OVERALL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN
5FT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...ERI/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJZ
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