212
FXUS61 KAKQ 160047
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
747 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A WARMING TREND STARTS MONDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A COUPLE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 745 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA,
LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1042MB) IS CENTERED ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A CAD REGIME FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS IN/OH, BUT THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH OF A
REFLECTION OF THIS AT THE SFC. NEVERTHELESS, LIFT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ARRIVED AND LIGHT RAIN HAS
MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT AS THE LOW-LEVELS ARE SLOWLY
SATURATING. TEMPS STRUGGLED TO GET OUT OF THE 30S ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA, WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S FARTHER E/SE. THAT
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING-TONIGHT
AS THE CAD REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. AS THIS
OCCURS, LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
OUR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC COUNTIES. RAIN SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
NECK AND EASTERN SHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. TOTAL
QPF FROM THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE 0.25" OR LESS, WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST SOUTH OF A CLARKSVILLE-
PETERSBURG- WILLIAMSBURG-MELFA LINE. TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALL A FEW
DEGREES AND RANGE FROM THE MID 30S-LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID-UPPER
40S IN SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT MONDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE QUITE MILD
ON TUESDAY.
- MILD WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
ARE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA.
MONDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING AM LIGHT RAIN
NEAR THE VA/MD COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER, THE RESIDUAL CAD AIRMASS WILL TAKE AWHILE
TO DISLODGE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA AS LOW CLOUDS LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTN
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. WITH DECENT WAA JUST
ABOVE THE SFC, THERE WILL BE QUITE THE CONTRAST IN TEMPS ACROSS THE
FA ON MONDAY WITH THE REMNANT WEDGE FRONT BISECTING THE FA. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE ONLY AROUND 50F ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES WHILE IT SHOULD
WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC. NOTE THAT THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE GUIDANCE RANGES
FROM THE UPPER 40S-NEAR 60F. IN ADDITION, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
AREAS FROM LOUISA-FARMVILLE DON'T MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 40S.
THE WEDGE FINALLY ERODES MON NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. TEMPS WON'T FALL MUCH MON NIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS IN
THE MID 40S-LOWER 50S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED (VERY WEAK) FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NOT BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW ANY SORT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BEFORE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA.
HOWEVER, WILL HAVE POPS OF 30-60% ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/EASTERN
SHORE EARLY TUE AM. QPFS MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE ARE NO HIGHER THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...AND REGARDLESS IT WILL DRY OUT AND
BECOME PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON. MILD TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AREAWIDE WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN FAR SE VA
AND NE NC. NOTE THAT THERE IS VIRTUALLY ZERO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THIS "COLD" FRONT. LOWS TUE NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S BUT COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE N.
A STRONGER (BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNSEASONABLY STRONG) COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FA FROM NW-SE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AM. WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST MILD
DAY FOR AWHILE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S-70F FOR MOST AREAS
(EXCEPT FOR UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S N/NW). NOTE THAT DEW POINTS CLIMB
INTO THE 50S-60F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTN...BUT SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE (ESPECIALLY NW) BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS SE WED NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING NEAR THE COAST BY AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. WON'T ADD ANY THUNDER TO THE FORECAST ATTM
BUT SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY LATE WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. ENSEMBLE
MEANS SUPPORT STILL SUPPORT A BROAD 0.25-0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE ECMWF/GEM ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
PRECIP...AND SHOW 10-40% PROBS OF >0.5" OF RAIN OVER THE FA...WHILE
THE GEFS DOESN'T HAVE ANY PROBS OF >0.5". LOWS WED NIGHT RANGE FROM
THE MID-UPPER 30S N/NW TO 40-45F ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WX AND A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE (AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT) WILL CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY
SYSTEM (EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO N OF I-64), HIGHS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S ON SAT AND MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 30S ON SUNDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C. LOWS ALSO
BECOME QUITE COLD AND IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH TEENS POSSIBLE BY THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 615 PM EST SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING,
LEADING TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR
STRATUS INVOF ORF/PHF/ECG. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE W/NW OF
THE TERMINALS SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD TONIGHT...AND SHOULD
IMPACT RIC/SBY BETWEEN 00-12Z. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS TONIGHT IN SE VA/NE NC. OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT ORF/PHF/ECG THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. CIGS GRADUALLY FALL TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY AT RIC/SBY
WHERE LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED). IN FACT, A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS
LIKELY AT RIC/SBY AFTER 06-08Z, WHILE PREVAILING CIGS LIKELY
DROP TO MVFR AT PHF/ORF. VSBYS IN THE RAIN WILL LIKELY DROP TO
MVFR AT RIC/SBY. E-NE WINDS AVERAGE 8-12 KT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT-MON.
EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN EXITS MONDAY MORNING, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT RIC/SBY/PHF,
BUT CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY MON AFTN AT ORF/ECG. COULD SEE
CIGS DROP TO IFR AGAIN MON NIGHT, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUE, WITH
CIGS NO WORSE THAN MVFR. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 305 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC AND MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY
OFFSHORE, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT DOES. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
LOCALLY. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS. LATEST OBS SHOW E WINDS OF 5-10KT OVER MOST OF THE BAY AND
THE RIVERS, ~15KT OVER COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. BUOY
OBS INDICATE 6-7FT SEAS S OF CAPE CHARLES AND 5-6FT SEAS TO THE N.
WAVES ARE GENERALLY 1-2FT WITH 3-4FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCAS
CONTINUE FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE SCA FOR
THE CURRITUCK SOUND WILL BE CANCELLED A BIT EARLY DUE TO DIMINISHING
WINDS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
OFFSHORE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LAGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SE WINDS WILL BE ~5KT FOR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, THE BAY, AND RIVERS, 10-15KT FOR THE
NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES. WINDS THEN REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS
THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5FT
SINCE FLOW WILL STILL BE ONSHORE. THEREFORE, SCAS WILL FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES WILL LAST WELL INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN SET TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY. S-SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF IT MONDAY
NIGHT TO 10-15KT FOR MOST ZONES, 15-20KT OFF THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
WHILE WINDS LOOK TO STAY SUB-SCA, SEAS IN THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES
MAY PICK BACK UP TO 5FT. WINDS TURN TO THE NW TUESDAY EVENING. A
SURGE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS TURN
BACK TO THE S ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...ERI/HET
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...ERI/HET
MARINE...AM
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