917
FXUS61 KAKQ 160737
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
237 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN AND DREARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WARMING TREND
STARTS MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHEAST
NC. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 7 AM.
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AWAY FROM SE VA AND NE NC.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL (LIGHT) EASTERLY FLOW IS
KEEPING THE CAD/WEDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, RATHER
WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING PRECIP FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUE MAINLY
N OF THE NC/VA BORDER. OUTSIDE OF RAIN, IT IS DAMP AND DREARY, WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER INTERIOR SRN
VA AND NE NC AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AFTER LOOKING AT
AVAILABLE OBS AND TRAFFIC CAMS. THE HRRR/RAP SUITE IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FOG AND GIVEN THAT THIS ALIGNS MOST
WITH CURRENT OBS, IT IS LIKELY THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FOG THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/7 AM, SO HAVE RUN THE
ADVISORY THROUGH THEN. WILL REEVALUATE ANY POTENTIAL EXTENSIONS IN A
FEW HOURS. TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S, EXCEPT SOME
MID-UPPER 30S ARE PRESENT ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES.
THE CAD/WEDGE WEAKENS SOME LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE SOME. HOWEVER, IT TENDS TO
BE DIFFICULT TO QUICKLY SCOUR THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AND CHILLY
AIRMASS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT, AND THINK TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NW, WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S, TO PARTLY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
SE, WITH HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S. POPS
DECREASE FROM SW TO NE TODAY AND ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE W LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN W AND N OF OUR CWA, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT N AND NE OF RICHMOND. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE QUITE MILD ON
TUESDAY.
- MILD WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING VIRTUALLY NO
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. ALOFT, THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, A
DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH MILDER AND IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH SOME LOWER 70S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AWAY FROM THE
EASTERN SHORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S N TO MID- UPPER 40S S (LOW 50S NE NC).
A STRONGER (BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNSEASONABLY STRONG) COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FA FROM NW-SE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AM. WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST MILD
DAY FOR AWHILE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S-70F FOR MOST AREAS
(EXCEPT FOR UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S N/NW). NOTE THAT DEW POINTS CLIMB
INTO THE 50S-60F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTN...BUT SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE (ESPECIALLY NW) BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS SE WED NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING NEAR THE COAST BY AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~500 J/KG) LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL SUPPORT A BROAD
0.25-0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF/GEM ENSEMBLES ARE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP...AND SHOW 10-40% PROBS OF
>0.5" OF RAIN OVER THE FA...WHILE THE GEFS IS LESS THAN 10% FOR
>0.5". LOWS WED NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S N/NW TO
40-45F ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 235 AM EST MONDAY...
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WX AND A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME.
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S N TO LOW-MID 50S S. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE (AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT) WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM (EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER ON THE EASTERN SHORE), HIGHS WILL TREND
BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S ON SAT AND MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
30S ON SUNDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS
EVEN COLDER WITH 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C AND STRONGLY NEGATIVE 2M
TEMP ANOMALIES. LOWS ALSO BECOME COLD AND IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH
TEENS PROBABLE BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EST MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE N OF THE AREA LEADING TO WEDGED
IN CONDITIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CIGS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, EXPECTING THE LIGHT SHOWERS TO LAST THROUGH
12Z/16 FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA (EXCLUDING ECG). LIFR CIGS
AT RIC, ECG, AND PHF ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
WITH MVFR CIGS AT SBY AND ORF EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR (SHORT LIFR
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE). VIS WILL DROP WITH THE LIGHT RAIN AT SBY AND
ORF. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT, IF ANY, FROM THE NE 0-5 KT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
RISE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUES, WITH
CIGS NO WORSE THAN MVFR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED, WHICH COULD BRING SUB-VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: WEAK COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT COULD LEAD TO DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WED EVENING INTO THURS IS MORE
LIKELY TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 305 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC AND MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY
OFFSHORE, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT DOES. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
LOCALLY. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS. LATEST OBS SHOW E WINDS OF 5-10KT OVER MOST OF THE BAY AND
THE RIVERS, ~15KT OVER COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. BUOY
OBS INDICATE 6-7FT SEAS S OF CAPE CHARLES AND 5-6FT SEAS TO THE N.
WAVES ARE GENERALLY 1-2FT WITH 3-4FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCAS
CONTINUE FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE SCA FOR
THE CURRITUCK SOUND WILL BE CANCELLED A BIT EARLY DUE TO DIMINISHING
WINDS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
OFFSHORE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LAGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SE WINDS WILL BE ~5KT FOR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, THE BAY, AND RIVERS, 10-15KT FOR THE
NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES. WINDS THEN REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS
THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5FT
SINCE FLOW WILL STILL BE ONSHORE. THEREFORE, SCAS WILL FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES WILL LAST WELL INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN SET TO
CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY. S-SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF IT MONDAY
NIGHT TO 10-15KT FOR MOST ZONES, 15-20KT OFF THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
WHILE WINDS LOOK TO STAY SUB-SCA, SEAS IN THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES
MAY PICK BACK UP TO 5FT. WINDS TURN TO THE NW TUESDAY EVENING. A
SURGE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS TURN
BACK TO THE S ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>016-
030>032.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ079-087-
088-092-093-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...AM
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