400
FXUS61 KAKQ 161020
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
520 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN AND DREARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WARMING TREND
STARTS MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 520 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AWAY FROM SE VA AND NE NC.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL (LIGHT) EASTERLY FLOW IS
KEEPING THE CAD/WEDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN HAS
GRADUALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EASTERN
SHORE. OUTSIDE OF RAIN, IT IS DAMP AND DREARY, WITH DRIZZLE AND
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER INTERIOR NE NC. EARLIER DENSE FOG (W/
VSBYS <1/4 MI) HAS DISSIPATED AND CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY EARLY. TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S,
EXCEPT SOME MID- UPPER 30S ARE PRESENT ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES.
THE CAD/WEDGE WEAKENS SOME LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE SOME. HOWEVER, IT TENDS TO
BE DIFFICULT TO QUICKLY SCOUR THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AND CHILLY
AIRMASS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT, AND THINK TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE. SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NW, WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S, TO PARTLY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
SE, WITH HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S. POPS
DECREASE FROM SW TO NE TODAY AND ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE W LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN W AND N OF OUR CWA, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT N AND NE OF RICHMOND. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE QUITE MILD ON
TUESDAY.
- MILD WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING VIRTUALLY NO
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. ALOFT, THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, A
DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH MILDER AND IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH SOME LOWER 70S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AWAY FROM THE
EASTERN SHORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S N TO MID- UPPER 40S S (LOW 50S NE NC).
A STRONGER (BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNSEASONABLY STRONG) COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FA FROM NW-SE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AM. WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST MILD
DAY FOR AWHILE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S-70F FOR MOST AREAS
(EXCEPT FOR UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S N/NW). NOTE THAT DEW POINTS CLIMB
INTO THE 50S-60F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTN...BUT SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE (ESPECIALLY NW) BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS SE WED NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING NEAR THE COAST BY AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~500 J/KG) LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL SUPPORT A BROAD
0.25-0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF/GEM ENSEMBLES ARE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP...AND SHOW 10-40% PROBS OF
>0.5" OF RAIN OVER THE FA...WHILE THE GEFS IS LESS THAN 10% FOR
>0.5". LOWS WED NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S N/NW TO
40-45F ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 235 AM EST MONDAY...
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WX AND A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME.
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S N TO LOW-MID 50S S. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE (AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT) WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM (EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER ON THE EASTERN SHORE), HIGHS WILL TREND
BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S ON SAT AND MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
30S ON SUNDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS
EVEN COLDER WITH 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C AND STRONGLY NEGATIVE 2M
TEMP ANOMALIES. LOWS ALSO BECOME COLD AND IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH
TEENS PROBABLE BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EST MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE N OF THE AREA LEADING TO WEDGED
IN CONDITIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CIGS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, EXPECTING THE LIGHT SHOWERS TO LAST THROUGH
12Z/16 FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA (EXCLUDING ECG). LIFR CIGS
AT RIC, ECG, AND PHF ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
WITH MVFR CIGS AT SBY AND ORF EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR (SHORT LIFR
PERIOD IS POSSIBLE). VIS WILL DROP WITH THE LIGHT RAIN AT SBY AND
ORF. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT, IF ANY, FROM THE NE 0-5 KT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
RISE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUES, WITH
CIGS NO WORSE THAN MVFR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WED, WHICH COULD BRING SUB-VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: WEAK COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT COULD LEAD TO DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WED EVENING INTO THURS IS MORE
LIKELY TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC.
- AREAS OF FOG WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE RIVERS AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LAGGING BACK INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE (MAINLY AN INVERTED
TROUGH) IS SLIDING ACROSS THE COAST. THE WIND IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND MAINLY E/SE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND N/NW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AND GENERALLY 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY HAVE SUBSIDED AS THE WIND HAS DIMINISHED AND ARE
APPROXIMATELY 2-3FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THEREFORE, THE SCA
FLAG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL BE LOWERED. OTHERWISE, SCA
FLAGS REMAIN FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY, BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 5FT LATER TODAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING, AND FOG IS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE RIVERS AND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CHES. BAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY WITH A RATHER NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE WIND
BECOMING SW 10- 15KT AND 15-20KT FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES.
THIS COULD PUSH SEAS BACK TO ~5FT OFFSHORE N OF PARRAMORE IS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A SW WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND THEN BECOME NNW 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6FT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...AJZ
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