727
FXUS61 KAKQ 161549
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN AND DREARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. IT REMAINS MILD WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE, THOUGH IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVERCAST IN MOST AREAS.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (~1040 MB) SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH OFF THE SE US COAST. ASIDE FORM SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SE, CONDITIONS REMAIN DREARY WITH A
LOW OVERCAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES
ARE SHOWING A SLOWER RISE THAN MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE NW 2/3 OF THE CWA: READINGS STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST OF
THE CWA, AND MUCH WARMER VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND PORTIONS OF NE NC.
THE CAD/WEDGE WEAKENS SOME LATER TODAY, BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS
AND ADDED DRIZZLE TO MOST ZONES THROUGH ~18Z. QPF AMOUNTS OVER
THE PAST FEW HRS HAVE BEEN LIGHT, BUT STILL MEASURABLE ALONG AN
AXIS FROM FVX/AVC TO RIC/PHF/ORF. LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW (AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS), WITH 50-55F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA, WHILE LOW- MID 60S PREVAIL IN
NE NC.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, AND
WILL PROBABLY BRING A PERIOD WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THOUGH THE HEAVIER RAIN WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN W AND N OF OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY
FALL A FEW DEGREES, WITH A RISE IN VALUES OVERNIGHT AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S N TO
THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE QUITE MILD ON
TUESDAY.
- MILD WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING VIRTUALLY NO
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. ALOFT, THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, A
DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH MILDER AND IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH SOME LOWER 70S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AWAY FROM THE
EASTERN SHORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S N TO MID- UPPER 40S S (LOW 50S NE NC).
A STRONGER (BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNSEASONABLY STRONG) COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FA FROM NW-SE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AM. WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST MILD
DAY FOR AWHILE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S-70F FOR MOST AREAS
(EXCEPT FOR UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S N/NW). NOTE THAT DEW POINTS CLIMB
INTO THE 50S-60F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTN...BUT SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE (ESPECIALLY NW) BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS SE WED NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING NEAR THE COAST BY AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~500 J/KG) LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL SUPPORT A BROAD
0.25-0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF/GEM ENSEMBLES ARE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP...AND SHOW 10-40% PROBS OF
>0.5" OF RAIN OVER THE FA...WHILE THE GEFS IS LESS THAN 10% FOR
>0.5". LOWS WED NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S N/NW TO
40-45F ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 235 AM EST MONDAY...
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WX AND A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME.
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S N TO LOW-MID 50S S. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE (AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT) WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM (EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER ON THE EASTERN SHORE), HIGHS WILL TREND
BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S ON SAT AND MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
30S ON SUNDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS
EVEN COLDER WITH 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C AND STRONGLY NEGATIVE 2M
TEMP ANOMALIES. LOWS ALSO BECOME COLD AND IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH
TEENS PROBABLE BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1000 AM EST MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NE OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO
BRING WEDGED IN CONDITIONS OF (LIGHT) ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CIGS
AND LOCALIZED FOG. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA, EXPECTING THE LIGHT SHOWERS TO END AFTER NOON, THOUGH SOME
DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z. THIS PATTERN OFTEN
LEADS TO IFR-LIFR CIGS LINGERING MUCH LONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES, ESPECIALLY AT PLACES LIKE RIC AND PTS NW. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY, BUT AT LEAST MVFR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL LIKELY, AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
WOULD EXPECT SUB- VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL MAJOR TERMINALS TONIGHT,
WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS RE-DEVELOPING. AN INCREASE IN SSW
WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG MORE LIMITED THOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE
PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TUESDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE WSW BY AFTN BRINGING
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WED, LINGERING INTO WED NIGHT AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. DRYING OUT THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY N
WIND.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC.
- AREAS OF FOG WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE RIVERS AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LAGGING BACK INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE (MAINLY AN INVERTED
TROUGH) IS SLIDING ACROSS THE COAST. THE WIND IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND MAINLY E/SE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND N/NW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AND GENERALLY 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY HAVE SUBSIDED AS THE WIND HAS DIMINISHED AND ARE
APPROXIMATELY 2-3FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THEREFORE, THE SCA
FLAG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL BE LOWERED. OTHERWISE, SCA
FLAGS REMAIN FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY, BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 5FT LATER TODAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING, AND FOG IS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE RIVERS AND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CHES. BAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY WITH A RATHER NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE WIND
BECOMING SW 10- 15KT AND 15-20KT FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES.
THIS COULD PUSH SEAS BACK TO ~5FT OFFSHORE N OF PARRAMORE IS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A SW WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND THEN BECOME NNW 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6FT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
634-637-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SW
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AJZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page