075
FXUS61 KAKQ 162046
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE INTO THIS EVENING. WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY. IT REMAINS MILD WITH
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 335 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FA THIS EVENING.
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE QUITE MILD ON
TUESDAY.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (>1035 MB) SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH OFF THE SE US COAST. THERE IS A STRONG SFC LOW TO THE N
OF LAKE SUPERIOR, MOVING ENE. CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTN REMAIN
DREARY WITH LOW OVERCAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF VA/MD, WHILE IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY
MILDER ACROSS FAR SE VA INTO NE NC (FROM THE DISMAL SWAMP S
TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND). TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION, RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID
40S IN THE NW TO THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR SE.
AT THIS POINT, THE CAD/WEDGE HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN, FOLLOWING
CLOSER TO THE NAM/HRRR DEPICTION AND WILL FOLLOW THIS FOR
TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NE
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN FROM THE W. HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS, AND HAVE LINGERED THE MENTION OF AT LEAST PATCHY
DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT THE NC ZONES. THIS WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT FARTHER TO THE N/NE OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES
BECOMING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR N OR NE PORTIONS OF THE FA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE NEARLY
STEADY OR ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES, WITH A RISE IN VALUES OVERNIGHT
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S N TO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE STILL MAY BE PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING VIRTUALLY NO
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE (IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX, MOST AREAS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER COMPARED TO MONDAY). ALOFT, THE
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM NW TO SE. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AND IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S N TO MID-
UPPER 40S S (LOW 50S NE NC).
A STRONGER (BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNSEASONABLY STRONG) COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FA FROM NW-SE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AM. WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST MILD
DAY FOR AWHILE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S-70F FOR MOST AREAS
(EXCEPT FOR UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S N/NW). NOTE THAT DEW POINTS CLIMB
INTO THE 50S-60F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTN...BUT SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE (ESPECIALLY NW) BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS SE WED NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING NEAR THE COAST BY AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~500 J/KG) LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL SUPPORT A BROAD
0.25-0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF/GEM ENSEMBLES ARE A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP...AND SHOW 10-40% PROBS OF
>0.5" OF RAIN OVER THE FA...WHILE THE GEFS IS LESS THAN 10% FOR
>0.5". LOWS WED NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S N/NW TO
40-45F ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 235 AM EST MONDAY...
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAINLY DRY WX AND A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME.
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S N TO LOW-MID 50S S. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE (AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT) WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM (EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER ON THE EASTERN SHORE), HIGHS WILL TREND
BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S ON SAT AND MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
30S ON SUNDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS
EVEN COLDER WITH 850MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C AND STRONGLY NEGATIVE 2M
TEMP ANOMALIES. LOWS ALSO BECOME COLD AND IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH
TEENS PROBABLE BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL TO THE NE OF THE AREA
CONTINUES TO BRING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO THE REGION,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE NC. MOST OF VA/MD CONTINUES TO SEE IFR
CIGS WITH LOCALLY REDUCED MVFR-IFR VSBYS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST
FEW HRS, BUT AT LEAST MVFR-IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. AN INCREASE IN SSW WINDS SHOULD KEEP
FOG MORE LIMITED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE
STILL MAY BE PATCHY FOG. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL
SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE WSW BY AFTN BRINGING PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WED, LINGERING INTO WED NIGHT AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. DRYING OUT THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY N
WIND. GENERALLY DRY THU NIGHT-SAT, THOUGH THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A LOW CHC FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRI-FRI NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT SBY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC.
- AREAS OF FOG WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE RIVERS AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LAGGING BACK INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE (MAINLY AN INVERTED
TROUGH) IS SLIDING ACROSS THE COAST. THE WIND IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND MAINLY E/SE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND N/NW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
AND GENERALLY 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY HAVE SUBSIDED AS THE WIND HAS DIMINISHED AND ARE
APPROXIMATELY 2-3FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THEREFORE, THE SCA
FLAG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL BE LOWERED. OTHERWISE, SCA
FLAGS REMAIN FOR THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY, BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 5FT LATER TODAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING, AND FOG IS PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE RIVERS AND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CHES. BAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY WITH A RATHER NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE WIND
BECOMING SW 10- 15KT AND 15-20KT FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES.
THIS COULD PUSH SEAS BACK TO ~5FT OFFSHORE N OF PARRAMORE IS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A SW WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND THEN BECOME NNW 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6FT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
634-637-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AJZ
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