282
FXUS61 KAKQ 162103
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE INTO THIS EVENING. WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY. IT REMAINS MILD WITH
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 335 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FA THIS EVENING.
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE QUITE MILD ON
TUESDAY.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (>1035 MB) SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH OFF THE SE US COAST. THERE IS A STRONG SFC LOW TO THE N
OF LAKE SUPERIOR, MOVING ENE. CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTN REMAIN
DREARY WITH LOW OVERCAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF VA/MD, WHILE IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY
MILDER ACROSS FAR SE VA INTO NE NC (FROM THE DISMAL SWAMP S
TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND). TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION, RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID
40S IN THE NW TO THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR SE.
AT THIS POINT, THE CAD/WEDGE HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN, FOLLOWING
CLOSER TO THE NAM/HRRR DEPICTION AND WILL FOLLOW THIS FOR
TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NE
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN FROM THE W. HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS, AND HAVE LINGERED THE MENTION OF AT LEAST PATCHY
DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT THE NC ZONES. THIS WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT FARTHER TO THE N/NE OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES
BECOMING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR N OR NE PORTIONS OF THE FA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE NEARLY
STEADY OR ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES, WITH A RISE IN VALUES OVERNIGHT
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S N TO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE STILL MAY BE PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING VIRTUALLY NO
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE (IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX, MOST AREAS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER COMPARED TO MONDAY). ALOFT, THE
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM NW TO SE. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
MILDER AND IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S N TO MID-
UPPER 40S S (LOW 50S NE NC).
A STRONGER (BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNSEASONABLY STRONG) COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FA FROM NW-SE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AM. WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST MILD
DAY FOR AWHILE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S-70F FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS (WITH 50S OVER THE FAR N/NW). NOTE THAT DEW POINTS CLIMB
INTO THE 50S-60F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY
THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE (ESPECIALLY
NW) THEREAFTER. SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS SE WED NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING NEAR THE COAST BY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT SOME MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~500 J/KG) LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL
SUPPORT A BROAD 0.25-0.50" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, HIGHEST N.
LOWS WED NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S N/NW TO 40-45F
ELSEWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WX AND A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S N TO LOW-
MID 50S S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
- TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER BY FRIDAY, AND TURN COLDER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WEST FRI-SAT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AND
A STRONGER COLD FRONT) WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM, THERE REMAINS A
CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE FA, WITH A NON-ZERO
CHC FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S, WITH SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS THE S. WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT, ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE 12Z/16 LREF SHOWS A FEW
MEMBERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION FRI NIGHT (THOUGH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY EXCEPT IN THE
FAR NE). LOWS IN THE 20S/30S FRI NIGHT, WITH HIGHS UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ON SAT. COLDER BUT DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE 30S ON SUNDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C. LOWS
SAT NIGHT/SUN AND SUN NIGHT/MON WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL TO THE NE OF THE AREA
CONTINUES TO BRING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO THE REGION,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE NC. MOST OF VA/MD CONTINUES TO SEE IFR
CIGS WITH LOCALLY REDUCED MVFR-IFR VSBYS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST
FEW HRS, BUT AT LEAST MVFR-IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. AN INCREASE IN SSW WINDS SHOULD KEEP
FOG MORE LIMITED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE
STILL MAY BE PATCHY FOG. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL
SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE WSW BY AFTN BRINGING PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WED, LINGERING INTO WED NIGHT AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. DRYING OUT THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY N
WIND. GENERALLY DRY THU NIGHT-SAT, THOUGH THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A LOW CHC FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRI-FRI NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT SBY.
MARINE
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
- SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT, BUT REMAINS BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE N THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST TOWARD THE
GULF OF MEXICO. STILL SEEING AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST,
THOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED SINCE THIS MORNING. FLOW CONTINUES TO BE VERY
LIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN ABOVE 5KT AS OF LATEST OBS.
SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, AND SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE
FINE TO EXPIRE AT 4PM AS PLANNED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. AHEAD OF IT, FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-
15KT (15-20KT FOR MD COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD PUSH
SEAS BACK TO ~5FT OFFSHORE N OF PARRAMORE IS. (NEAR 20NM) LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BACK OVERHEAD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SW FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN WED EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ~10-15KT IN THE
BAY/RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO 20-25KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6FT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CAA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AJZ/AM
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