562
FXUS61 KAKQ 170206
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
906 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE INTO THIS EVENING. WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY. IT REMAINS MILD WITH
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 905 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FA THIS EVENING.
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE QUITE MILD ON
TUESDAY.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (>1035 MB) SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH AN INVERTED SFC
COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SE US COAST. THERE IS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO, MOVING ENE. THE CAD/WEDGE AIRMASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN, FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE CMC/NAM/HRRR
EVOLUTION. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THIS BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LATE EVENING. STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE
FOG HAS FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL FRONT, WITH CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 2-400 FT AGL. HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY OVER SOUTHSIDE AND WESTERN HAMPTON ROADS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NE THROUGH W PA AND
WV/W VA, BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN FROM THE
W. THIS WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT FARTHER TO OUR N/NE
OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR
N OR NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES,
WITH A RISE IN VALUES OVERNIGHT AS SSW WINDS INCREASE IN THE
PSEUDO WARM SECTOR. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S N TO THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. FOG SHOULD EASE
OR AT LEAST DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY INLAND AS SSW
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING
VIRTUALLY NO COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT, IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX, MOST AREAS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
MONDAY. ALOFT, THE FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. A SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH MILDER AND IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S N TO MID-
UPPER 40S S (LOW 50S NE NC).
A STRONGER (BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNSEASONABLY STRONG) COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FA FROM NW-SE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AM. WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR LAST MILD
DAY FOR AWHILE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S-70F FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS (WITH 50S OVER THE FAR N/NW). NOTE THAT DEW POINTS CLIMB
INTO THE 50S-60F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY
THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE (ESPECIALLY
NW) THEREAFTER. SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS SE WED NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING NEAR THE COAST BY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT SOME MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~500 J/KG) LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL
SUPPORT A BROAD 0.25-0.50" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, HIGHEST N.
LOWS WED NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S N/NW TO 40-45F
ELSEWHERE.
MAINLY DRY WX AND A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S N TO LOW-
MID 50S S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
- TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER BY FRIDAY, AND TURN COLDER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WEST FRI-SAT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AND
A STRONGER COLD FRONT) WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM, THERE REMAINS A
CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE FA, WITH A NON-ZERO
CHC FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S, WITH SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS THE S. WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT, ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE 12Z/16 LREF SHOWS A FEW
MEMBERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION FRI NIGHT (THOUGH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY EXCEPT IN THE
FAR NE). LOWS IN THE 20S/30S FRI NIGHT, WITH HIGHS UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ON SAT. COLDER BUT DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE 30S ON SUNDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -10C. LOWS
SAT NIGHT/SUN AND SUN NIGHT/MON WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 850 PM EST MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS, AND PREDOMINATE LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. CIGS WITH HEIGHTS 200-400 FT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH VSBY 4-6 SM INLAND AND 1-2SM OR LESS
ALONG THE COAST NEAR BY A LINGERING COASTAL/WEDGE FRONT. LOW
STRATUS SLOWLY MIXES OUT AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUE,
CLEARING PRE-DAWN OVER INLAND AREAS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE REGION. WINDS CALM LATE TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT SWRLY ON TUE
GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT. THE TRAILING, AND INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE/WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTN
AND EVENING, AND WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE TO THE WSW, BRINGING A
TREND TOWARD PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WED, LINGERING INTO WED NIGHT AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. DRYING OUT THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY N
WIND. GENERALLY DRY THU NIGHT-SAT, THOUGH THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A LOW CHC FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRI-FRI NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT SBY.
MARINE
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
- SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT, BUT REMAINS BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE N THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST TOWARD THE
GULF OF MEXICO. STILL SEEING AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST,
THOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED SINCE THIS MORNING. FLOW CONTINUES TO BE VERY
LIGHT, WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN ABOVE 5KT AS OF LATEST OBS.
SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, AND SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE
FINE TO EXPIRE AT 4PM AS PLANNED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. AHEAD OF IT, FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-
15KT (15-20KT FOR MD COASTAL WATERS) LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD PUSH
SEAS BACK TO ~5FT OFFSHORE N OF PARRAMORE IS. (NEAR 20NM) LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BACK OVERHEAD.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SW FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN WED EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ~10-15KT IN THE
BAY/RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO 20-25KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6FT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CAA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ093-
095>098-524-525.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-634-
637-638.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...KMC/LKB/MAM
MARINE...AJZ/AM
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