076
FXUS61 KAKQ 171122
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
622 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY.
IT REMAINS MILD WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD TUESDAY WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM WARM FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE SE BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING N FROM MD/PA INTO NY/
NEW ENGLAND AREA. THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
TO THE N OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUES INTO WED MORNING. THE VERY WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT WILL STALL
OUT AND BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE REACHING THE FA.
MOST LOW STRATUS/FOG HAS LIFTED FROM THE AREA, WITH NE NC STILL
SEEING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REACH AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, SO THE DAY WILL ONLY GET WARMER
AS IT PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ~10+ DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE MD EASTERN
SHORE IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN MILD AS WELL IN THE
LOW 40 IN THE PIEDMONT AND MD EASTERN SHORE, MID 40S IN THE CENTRAL
REGION OF THE FA, AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY WITH A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT QPF WILL BE MINIMAL WITH POPS RANGING FROM
20-30% SE TO 30-40% NW. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW BY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
POPS HAVE BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA AND
STILL IN THE CHC CATEGORY OWING TO SOME CONTINUITY. HOWEVER, THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 00Z/17 NUMERICAL MODELS WOULD SUPPORT
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW RACES NE TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AND GENERALLY 0.1-0.2"
OVER THE PIEDMONT TO 0.2-0.3" TOWARD THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM NW-
SE. WARM WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN/SE VA AND NE NC WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70F, WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL VA, AND
MID 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR THE NW PIEDMONT AND EASTERN SHORE. REMAINING
MILD WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER
40S SE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. HOWEVER, SOME CLOUDS COULD LINGER ACROSS NE NC AS THE
COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS IT BECOMES ALIGNED
PARALLEL WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEASONALLY CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 20S NW TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 340 AM EST TUESDAY...
- TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER BY FRIDAY, AND TURN COLDER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
00Z/17 EPS/GEFS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION.
THE LREF SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 40S N TO LOWER 50S SE. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE STILL GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE NE. HOWEVER, THE LREF DOES
STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD
POSSIBLY END AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (WITH NO ACCUMULATION). MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -10 TO -12 C SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, AND THEN ONLY MID
30S TO AROUND 40F SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE, WITH UPPER TEENS N/NW TO MID/UPPER
20S SE SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOWS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY. A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
TO COMMENCE TOWARD CHRISTMAS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ALLOWING
MILDER AIR TO ARRIVE FROM THE WSW.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 625 AM EST TUESDAY...
MOSTLY PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH ALL MAJOR
TERMINALS NOW IN VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS (5-10 KT) HAVE HELPED
IMPROVE VIS AND CIGS. ANY LOW STRATUS THAT REMAINS LINGERING AROUND
SUNRISE WILL MIX OUT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUES
INTO EARLY WED. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM SW TO NNE AFTER
00Z/18. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY WITH LOWER CIGS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WED, LINGERING INTO WED NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. GENERALLY DRY THU NIGHT-SAT WITH POTENTIALLY
GUSTY WINDS THURS.
MARINE
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST, WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO THE
MTNS. WINDS WERE SW 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. WAVES WERE 1-2 FT
AND SEAS WERE 3-4 FT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
DURING TODAY. AHEAD OF IT, EXPECT SW WINDS 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT THIS
AFTN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE N OR NW, THEN NE BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
SSW FLOW INCREASES AGAIN LATE WED INTO WED EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ~10-15KT IN THE BAY/RIVERS, AND 15-20KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SCAS WILL THEN BE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE WATERS
FOR LATE WED THROUGH THU FOR NW OR N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCREASING TO 15-25KT (GUSTS UP TO 30 KT). SEAS BUILD TO 4-6FT
WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES BAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...KMC/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...TMG
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