364
FXUS61 KAKQ 172046
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 310 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN SOUTHERN VA/NE NC.
AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. AT THE SFC, LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST OVER
QUEBEC, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT STILL LOCATED JUST TO OUR NW.
IT HAS WARMED UP NICELY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS HOUR. WILL STILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC THIS EVENING-PART OF
TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT CROSSES MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT
LIKELY STALLS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO AROUND 50F SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENTLY STRONG CAD IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST AREA FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN WITH POPS BETWEEN 25-35%. WHILE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE AND SOUTHEAST POPS REMAIN BETWEEN 15-25%. THE QPF OVERALL WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE REGION GIVING
BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS POPS INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. POPS ARE BETWEEN 60-80%
WITH QPF RANGING .1-.3". WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THE BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER
RAIN FALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE AREA WITH QPF
BETWEEN .2-.3". WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES QPF RANGES FROM
.1-.2". WILL NOTE THAT SOME OF THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED HIGHER QPF TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WITH
T HE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN REGION
OF THE CWA AND THE WARM FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A CAD WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH
EAST CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT GIVING WAY
TO DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S. WILL NOTE, THAT MODELS DO NOT HANDLE CADS EXTREMELY
WELL AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER EVEN MORE
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AND HOW STRONG THE CAD
WILL BE. TEMPERATURES FALLING OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO THE
UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HOWEVER, SOME CLOUDS COULD LINGER ACROSS
NE NC AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS IT BECOMES
ALIGNED PARALLEL WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEASONALLY CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S NW TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
- TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER BY FRIDAY, AND TURN COLDER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST 12Z/17Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BY FRIDAY A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST. NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF POPS HAVE
CHANGED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND STILL REMAINS AT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
NE. HOWEVER, THE LREF DOES STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD POSSIBLY END AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (WITH NO
ACCUMULATION).HIGHS FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 40S N TO LOWER
50S SE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS
SATURDAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, AND
THEN ONLY MID 30S TO AROUND 40F SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE, WITH UPPER TEENS N/NW TO
MID/UPPER 20S SE SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOWS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY. A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TOWARD CHRISTMAS AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO ARRIVE FROM THE WSW.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR TO IFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED AM. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG AT ECG
BETWEEN 08-14Z. MVFR TO IFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF WED AM
AS THAT FRONT SLOWLY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH
IMPROVING CIGS DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SUB-
VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT RIC/SBY. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH (TO ~10
KT) ON WED.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS FROM NW-SE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FROPA (WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WED
NIGHT). VFR RETURNS THU AM WITH DRY WX. GENERALLY DRY THU-SAT
WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS THURS.
MARINE
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST, WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO THE
MTNS. WINDS WERE SW 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. WAVES WERE 1-2 FT
AND SEAS WERE 3-4 FT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
DURING TODAY. AHEAD OF IT, EXPECT SW WINDS 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT THIS
AFTN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE N OR NW, THEN NE BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
SSW FLOW INCREASES AGAIN LATE WED INTO WED EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ~10-15KT IN THE BAY/RIVERS, AND 15-20KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SCAS WILL THEN BE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE WATERS
FOR LATE WED THROUGH THU FOR NW OR N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCREASING TO 15-25KT (GUSTS UP TO 30 KT). SEAS BUILD TO 4-6FT
WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES BAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...TMG
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