587
FXUS61 KAKQ 180157
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
857 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 855 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FA THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA, THEN
STALL NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. LATEST OBS REFLECT RELATIVELY MILD
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES. ALSO
SEEING MANY OBS SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM FOG BOTH ON THE
EASTERN SHORE AND FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA W OF THE
BAY. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY SHIFT S/SE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY TONIGHT, BUT COULD SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE LOW 50S IN THE
SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECENTLY STRONG CAD IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST AREA FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN WITH POPS BETWEEN 25-35%. WHILE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE AND SOUTHEAST POPS REMAIN BETWEEN 15-25%. THE QPF OVERALL WILL
BE QUITE MINIMAL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE REGION GIVING
BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS POPS INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. POPS ARE BETWEEN 60-80%
WITH QPF RANGING .1-.3". WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THE BETTER CHANCE OF HIGHER
RAIN FALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE AREA WITH QPF
BETWEEN .2-.3". WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES QPF RANGES FROM
.1-.2". WILL NOTE THAT SOME OF THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED HIGHER QPF TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WITH
T HE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN REGION
OF THE CWA AND THE WARM FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A CAD WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH
EAST CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT GIVING WAY
TO DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S. WILL NOTE, THAT MODELS DO NOT HANDLE CADS EXTREMELY
WELL AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER EVEN MORE
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AND HOW STRONG THE CAD
WILL BE. TEMPERATURES FALLING OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO THE
UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HOWEVER, SOME CLOUDS COULD LINGER ACROSS
NE NC AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS IT BECOMES
ALIGNED PARALLEL WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEASONALLY CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID/UPPER 20S NW TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
- TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COOLER BY FRIDAY, AND TURN COLDER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST 12Z/17Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BY FRIDAY A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST. NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF POPS HAVE
CHANGED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND STILL REMAINS AT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
NE. HOWEVER, THE LREF DOES STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD POSSIBLY END AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (WITH NO
ACCUMULATION).HIGHS FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 40S N TO LOWER
50S SE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS
SATURDAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, AND
THEN ONLY MID 30S TO AROUND 40F SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE, WITH UPPER TEENS N/NW TO
MID/UPPER 20S SE SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOWS POTENTIALLY DROP INTO
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY. A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TOWARD CHRISTMAS AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO ARRIVE FROM THE WSW.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 705 PM EST TUESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR TO START ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION IS SBY WHERE PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED AND IS
CAUSING IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TONIGHT AND STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. EXPECT CIGS TO
DROP TO MVFR TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AM. ALSO EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT, PRIMARILY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS,
THOUGH COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AT RIC DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF WED AM AS THAT
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH IMPROVING
CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SUB- VFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT RIC/SBY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH (TO ~10 KT) ON
WED.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS FROM NW-SE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FROPA (WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WED
NIGHT). VFR RETURNS THU AM WITH DRY WX. GENERALLY DRY THU-SAT
WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS THURS.
MARINE
AS OF 355 PM EST TUESDAY...
- N WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH SCAS LIKELY.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND DROP S ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW 5-10 KT TO N/NE. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS
BACK N AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ON WED WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
AND THEN S 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED AFTERNOON
INTO WED EVENING WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY WED EVENING.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SE WED NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW WITH WINDS BECOMING
N/NNW AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SCAS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SURGE. HOWEVER, WILL HOLD OFF FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THU BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THU EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE (AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH
WINDS BECOMING NW/N 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FRI EVENING INTO
SUN NIGHT. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SURGE.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 1-2 FT AND 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AND SEAS
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT AND 4-6 FT RESPECTIVELY WED NIGHT INTO THU
EVENING. WAVES AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE SURGE THIS
WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AM/ERI
MARINE...RMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page