702
FXUS61 KAKQ 180839
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 340 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A STALLED COLD FRONT BECOMES A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSES MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES.
- PATCHY FOG IN MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE FA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WON'T DECREASE MUCH IN SE
VA/NE NC AS THAT WARM AIR OVERPOWERS THE COLD AIR IN THE REST OF THE
AREA. BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT, REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM FOG HAS
INCREASED IN CENTRAL VA, MD EASTERN SHORE, AND INTERIOR NC. OBS AND
CAMERAS SHOW DENSE PATCHY FOG. HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR NOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO DFA. THE FOG WILL LIFT
AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE STATIONARY FRONT TURNS INTO THE WARM FRONT AND
PUSHES N, TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL VA/
SE VA/NE NC AND LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN SHORE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIKELY CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY HOURS OF
THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND COOL FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.
- PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE TN VALLEY MOVING NE OVER THE AREA
THEN TO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. THE STALLED COLD FRONT-TURNED-WARM
FRONT WILL BE OUTRAN BY THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO
THURS. POPS ARE 65-75% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING ON WED EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURS AND MOVING FROM NW TO SE.
QPFS AREN'T VERY HIGH WITH PROJECT AMOUNTS OF 0.1-0.3 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NE OF THE FA. WILL NOTE THAT SOME OF THE
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
WED NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THURS HIGH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING TO THE UPPER 40S FROM THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT THURS TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S (UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST).
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE TRENDS FROM THE 18/00Z GUIDANCE HAVE
SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN/SE VA, SE MD, AND NE NC. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO 30-50% FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH 15-25% POPS FOR THE
PIEDMONT AND I-95 CORRIDOR. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND COOL
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S N TO AROUND 50F SE.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
POPS OF 30-40% LINGER FROM THE NORTHERN NECK TO THE EASTERN SHORE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH 15-20% ELSEWHERE. POPS THEN DROP TO 15-25%
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND LESS THAN 15%
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
INITIALLY FRIDAY EVENING, SO ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE RAIN
DESPITE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ALOFT. BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING
AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
32F. HOWEVER, ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM SO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AS
DRIER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 340 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
- COLD AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
00Z/18 EPS/GEFS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MUCH COLDER AND VERY DRY AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND FRIDAY'S SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -
8 TO -12 C SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE 18/00Z EPS/GEFS EACH DEPICT THE
COLDEST 2M TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD WITH THE EPS SHOWING ON THE ORDER OF -15 TO -20F BELOW
AVERAGE AND THE GEFS AROUND -15F BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, AND THEN ONLY MID
30S TO NEAR 40F SUNDAY (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S FOR SE MD). LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOWS
POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT MONDAY. HOWEVER, MIXING WILL BE
LIMITED WITH 1036-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING SW
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY ARE ONLY IN THE MID 30S
NW TO LOWER 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY. COLD MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE
MID 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES FARTHER OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W. FORECAST HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
PRESENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE, WITH
POPS OF 15-20%. OVERALL THE 18/00Z EPS HAS A SLOWER EROSION OF THE
COLD/DRY AIR COMPARED TO THE GEFS.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER MOST TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION IS ECG AND ORF, WHICH ARE STILL AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL 08-09Z WHEN
PATCHY FOG BEGINS TO FORM. AS FOR THE REST OF THE MAJOR TERMINALS,
GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH OBS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
AROUND UP TO VFR FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME AT RIC AND SBY. THE FOG
WILL SETTLE IN CAUSING MOSTLY IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPOS FOR RIC, SBY, AND PHF FOR LIFR RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 10Z. THE
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT AROUND THE VA/NC BORDER AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY. CIGS AND VIS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN IN MVFR RESTRICTIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE EARLY WED MORNING BRINGING CHANCE OF RAIN
AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE CALM CURRENTLY AND WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY TO BE SW 5-10 KT, SHIFTING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT TO THE NNW AROUND 10 KT.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS FROM NW-SE LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA
(WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT). VFR
RETURNS THU AM WITH DRY WX. GENERALLY DRY THU-SAT WITH POTENTIALLY
GUSTY WINDS THURS.
MARINE
AS OF 355 PM EST TUESDAY...
- N WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH SCAS LIKELY.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND DROP S ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW 5-10 KT TO N/NE. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS
BACK N AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ON WED WITH WINDS BECOMING SE
AND THEN S 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED AFTERNOON
INTO WED EVENING WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY WED EVENING.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SE WED NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW WITH WINDS BECOMING
N/NNW AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SCAS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SURGE. HOWEVER, WILL HOLD OFF FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THU BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THU EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE (AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH
WINDS BECOMING NW/N 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FRI EVENING INTO
SUN NIGHT. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SURGE.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 1-2 FT AND 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AND SEAS
INCREASE TO 3-4 FT AND 4-6 FT RESPECTIVELY WED NIGHT INTO THU
EVENING. WAVES AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE SURGE THIS
WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-
654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...KMC/LKB
NEAR TERM...AM/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AM/KMC
MARINE...RMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page