888
FXUS61 KAKQ 181525
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1025 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1020 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC,
WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA.
THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED PART OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS
BEGUN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
FOG HAS LIFTED IN SPOTS...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF A LUNENBURG-WAKEFIELD-NEWPORT NEWS
LINE. MEANWHILE, A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS
THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH...WITH MUCH OF THE FOG LIFTING BY NOON
(ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHC OF MARINE FOG MOVING ONTO THE EASTERN
SHORE THIS AFTN). TEMPS TODAY DEPEND ON HOW FAST THAT FRONT
MOVES NORTH. IT WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 70F ACROSS SE VA/NE NC,
UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE RIC METRO AND TRI CITIES, AND ONLY INTO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. NOTE THAT THERE IS
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINITY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THAT COLD FRONT (AND AN UPPER TROUGH) CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA FROM NW-SE BETWEEN 10 PM-4
AM. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURS AM. POPS ARE 65-75% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
QPFS AREN'T VERY HIGH WITH PROJECTED AMOUNTS OF 0.1-0.3 INCHES.
AND BASED ON SOME OF THE INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE...THAT MAY EVEN
BE OPTIMISTIC. WHILE THERE WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF
SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN FAR SE VA/NE NC...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE FROPA...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH
EXPECTED. TEMPS WON'T FALL MUCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT (IT MAY STILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT). HOWEVER, IT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S-MID 40S BY
SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND COOL FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.
- PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WED NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THURS HIGH TEMPS ONLY
INCREASING TO THE UPPER 40S FROM THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT THURS
TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
(UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST).
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE TRENDS FROM THE 18/00Z GUIDANCE HAVE
SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN/SE VA, SE MD, AND NE NC. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO 30-50% FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH 15-25% POPS FOR THE
PIEDMONT AND I-95 CORRIDOR. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND COOL
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S N TO AROUND 50F SE.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
POPS OF 30-40% LINGER FROM THE NORTHERN NECK TO THE EASTERN SHORE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH 15-20% ELSEWHERE. POPS THEN DROP TO 15-25%
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND LESS THAN 15%
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
INITIALLY FRIDAY EVENING, SO ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE RAIN
DESPITE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ALOFT. BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING
AND THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
32F. HOWEVER, ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM SO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AS
DRIER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 340 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
- COLD AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
00Z/18 EPS/GEFS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MUCH COLDER AND VERY DRY AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND FRIDAY'S SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -
8 TO -12 C SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE 18/00Z EPS/GEFS EACH DEPICT THE
COLDEST 2M TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD WITH THE EPS SHOWING ON THE ORDER OF -15 TO -20F BELOW
AVERAGE AND THE GEFS AROUND -15F BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, AND THEN ONLY MID
30S TO NEAR 40F SUNDAY (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S FOR SE MD). LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOWS
POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT MONDAY. HOWEVER, MIXING WILL BE
LIMITED WITH 1036-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING SW
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY ARE ONLY IN THE MID 30S
NW TO LOWER 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY. COLD MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE
MID 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LIKELY.
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES FARTHER OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W. FORECAST HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
PRESENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE, WITH
POPS OF 15-20%. OVERALL THE 18/00Z EPS HAS A SLOWER EROSION OF THE
COLD/DRY AIR COMPARED TO THE GEFS.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 635 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
DENSE FOG HAS CLEAR UP AT RIC AND SBY ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS, WHILE
ORF AND ECG CONTINUES TO HAVE PATCHY FOG AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND
PHF REMAINS UNDER DENSE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS. ANY REMAINING FOG
WILL LIFT THIS MORNING 16-17Z, WITH PHF AND ECG CLINGING TO THE FOG
THE LONGEST. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA WILL BE
OVERPOWERED BY THE WARM AIR TO THE S, PUSHING A WARM FRONT N THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO ALL TERMINALS MOVING FROM THE NW TO SE
AND DEGRADED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NNE AND WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15-18Z. WITH
THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT AGAIN TO BE FROM THE N AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS FROM NW-SE LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA
(WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT). VFR
RETURNS THU AM WITH DRY WX. GENERALLY DRY THU-SAT WITH POTENTIALLY
GUSTY WINDS THURS.
MARINE
AS OF 410 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
- N WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH SCAS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING INTO NE NC.
WINDS WERE NORTHERLY 5-10 KT NORTH OF THE FRONT, AND WSW 5-10 KT
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WAVES WERE 1-2 FT AND SEAS WERE 2-3 FT. THE
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE NE NC WATERS BY DAYBREAK. THE
FRONT THEN LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM FRONT FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTN, WITH WINDS BECOMING SE AND THEN S 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE LOW, WITH WINDS BECOMING NW THEN N AND
INCREASING TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SO, HAVE ISSUED
SCAS FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS STARTING EITHER AT 1 AM OR 4 AM THU
DUE TO THIS SURGE. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS INTO EARLY THU AFTN OR THROUGH THU AFTN. SCA WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST FOR THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS INTO THU EVENING DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISHING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY THU EVENING, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID ATLC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS FRI INTO SAT MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER NW OR N WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA FROM FRI EVENING
INTO SAT NIGHT.
WAVES AND SEAS INCREASE TO 2-4 FT AND 4-6 FT RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT
INTO THU. WAVES AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE SURGE THIS
WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-638.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
636>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-
654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...KMC/LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AM/KMC
MARINE...RMM/TMG
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