537
FXUS61 KAKQ 182043
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HOWEVER, RAIN AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE 0.10" ON AVERAGE.
AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. AS
EXPECTED, IT HAS WARMED UP NICELY (TO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S)
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC, TO AROUND 60F IN THE RIC METRO, AND
ONLY INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. IT HAS
REMAINED RAIN FREE TODAY BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT (AND UPPER
TROUGH) IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT.
THAT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NW-SE BETWEEN 10 PM-4
AM, AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 65-75% FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR PRECIP IS 7-11 PM IN THE
PIEDMONT, 9 PM-2 AM ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND 11 PM-4 AM NEAR
THE COAST. EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE FAIRLY HIGH, QPFS ARE ONLY
AROUND 0.10" ON AVERAGE. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO ACROSS SE VA/NE NC TONIGHT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE FORECAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE FROPA...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 MPH EXPECTED. TEMPS WON'T FALL MUCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT (IT
MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT). HOWEVER, IT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S-MID
40S BY SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND COOL FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.
- PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
A SUBTLE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THURSDAY ALLOWING A HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FETCH IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN SHORE AND LOWER
50S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL START
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE
THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS NIGHT TIME LOWS FOR THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S LOWER 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE
COAST. THIS IS DUE WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CAA INTO
THE REGION. IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVES INTO MID-ATLANTIC.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LIE ALONG THE COAST AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY AND PHASES WITH A NEW LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF
THE COAST OF VIRGINIA. POPS RANGE BETWEEN 35-45% ALONG THE COAST.
THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS
POPS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 20-30%. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER FROM 1000-750MB ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WOULD
INDICATE ANY SHOWER THAT WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP WOULD LEAD TO
MINIMAL QPF. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT QPF RANGES LESS THAN A .1" WHILE
ALONG THE COAST QPF RANGES BETWEEN .1-.2". HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. AS THE LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN
OFF THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES DROP ACROSS EASTERN SHORE THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT SATURATED LAYER THROUGH
THE DGZ AND STRONG LAPSE RATES. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL SNOW
FLAKE FORMATION. HOWEVER, THIS WOULD A BRIEF AND SHORT PERIOD AS THE
LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS QUICK TRANSITION. LOWS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AS DRIER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA. BY SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GIVING WAY TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CWA.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN POTENT RIDGE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING IN JUST OFF THE COAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOWS
POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS LATE MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. COLD MORNING LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ARE STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER ARRIVES WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S NW TO LOWER 50S
SE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LIKELY. BY CHRISTMAS DAY LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ARE
POSSIBLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME POPS REMAIN BETWEEN 20-25% AS THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH
MODELS. IN TERMS OF WHAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IT WILL MOSTLY BE
RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AS A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS (AND DRY
WX) WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THAT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-09Z THU. THERE IS A ~70% CHC OF SHOWERS AT
THE TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT (MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT). HAVE MAINTAINED SHRA IN THE TAFS AT ALL
TERMINALS. PREVAILING VSBYS WILL BE VFR/MVFR IN THE
SHOWERS...WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR TONIGHT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR A FEW HOURS AFTER
THE FROPA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME NNW-N BEHIND THE FRONT
AT 10-20 KT (HIGHEST AT THE COAST). GUSTS TO ~25 KT ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATE TONIGHT-THU.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY DRY/VFR THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM FRI NIGHT-SUN WITH DRY WX AFTER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 340 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
- N WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH SCAS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW PA AND NE
WV WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY S 5-10 KT. THE LOW
MOVES NE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING S ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME N/NNW 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. WINDS BECOME N BY THU MORNING AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE DAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUN. A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THU EVENING INTO FRI BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE (AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH
WINDS BECOMING NW/N 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FRI EVENING
THROUGH SUN. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SURGE.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 1-2 FT AND 2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS AFTERNOON.
WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT (4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) AND
4-6 FT (4-7 FT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT
INTO THU EVENING. WAVES AND SEAS BUILD ONCE AGAIN TO 4-7 FT WITH THE
SURGE THIS WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-
654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
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