787
FXUS61 KAKQ 190852
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING
COOLER MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST
FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 355 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MORE SEASONABLE, COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWING MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR HAS A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SHOULD BE OUT BY SUNRISE. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP BRIEFLY ALLOWING COOLER, MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVEN'T FALLEN MUCH
OVERNIGHT, BUT ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE TO THE LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY WON'T WARM UP MUCH AND WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE DAY AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE EVENING. AROUND THE
FRONT, WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH FROM THE N/NNW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND COOL FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.
- PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SE US FRI MORNING WHILE A
SURFACE LEVEL CLIPPER MOVES N OF THE AREA ONLY BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE
COASTLINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TOWARDS THE COAST WITH POPS AROUND 30-
35% ALONG THE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRI AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FRI EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
NE, POPS INCREASE FOR THE EASTERN SHORE TO BE AROUND 50-60%. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE FA AS THE LOW
REGROUPS JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. ANY ACCUMULATION FROM THIS
LOW WILL BE LOW WITH QPFS AROUND 0.1-0.2 INCHES FOR THE DAY.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL FOR THE
NIGHT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN SHORE IS
POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SMALL SATURATED LAYER
THROUGH THE DGZ AND SURFACE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. HOWEVER, THIS PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND
NOT ACCUMULATE AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CAA INTO THE REGION, OVERNIGHT
TEMPS THURS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION (SE
VA/NE NC IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S), DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS FOR FRI REMAIN COOL IN THE MID 40S AND UPPER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. FRI NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT FREEZING
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. BY SAT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH COOLER DRIER AIR PREVENTING HIGHS TO NOT EXCEED THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
00Z/19 EPS/GEFS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN DAMPENS. 19/00Z EPS/GEFS EACH
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE COLDEST 2M TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH THE EPS SHOWING ON THE ORDER OF
-15 TO -20F BELOW AVERAGE AND THE GEFS AROUND -15F BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S S AND SW UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING THEN DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND, WITH
SOME LOWER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES AS RATHER
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH STRONG NEARLY
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. LOWS ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA AND NE NC WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WHERE A
LIGHT NNE BREEZE PERSISTS.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT MONDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DAMPENING OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND BROAD RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM
THE W. HOWEVER, MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH 1036-1038MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING SW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FORECAST
HIGHS MONDAY ARE ONLY IN THE MID 30S N AND NW TO LOWER 40S SE. THE
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. COLD MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ARE STILL POSSIBLE INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER ARRIVES WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALSO, TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD
ALONG THE COASTS OF SE VA AND NE NC WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
FARTHER OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE W. LOWS CHRISTMAS EVE WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S/AROUND 40F ALONG THE COAST, AND COULD
WARM A FEW DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. FORECAST HIGHS FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY PRESENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID
50S SE. NBM POPS INCREASE TO ~20% CHRISTMAS DAY (WHICH IS NEAR
CLIMO) WITH SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL WILL LIKELY BE RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
32F PRIOR TO THE ONSET.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EST THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA CAUSING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE AREA, PRIMARILY IN TWO BANDS: ONE IN THE N PART OF THE AREA AND
ONE IN THE SE PART OF THE AREA, LEAVING THE CENTRAL REGION
(INCLUDING PHF) DRY. VFR CONDITIONS AT RIC, ORF, AND PHF, WHILE SBY
AND ECG HAVE LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OF MVFR AND LIFR,
RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS UNIFORM LOWER CIGS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND HAVE MOST TERMINALS IN MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS BEGINNING 06Z-
10Z. CIGS WILL LIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO PRIMARILY LOW VFR.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN SHIFTING FROM THE N AND WILL CONTINUE AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BEFORE SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY DRY/VFR THU NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ON FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY WX AFTER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
CROSS THE AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 340 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
- N WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH SCAS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW PA AND NE
WV WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY S 5-10 KT. THE LOW
MOVES NE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING S ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME N/NNW 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. WINDS BECOME N BY THU MORNING AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE DAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUN. A BRIEF LULL
IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED THU EVENING INTO FRI BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE (AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH
WINDS BECOMING NW/N 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FRI EVENING
THROUGH SUN. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SURGE.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 1-2 FT AND 2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS AFTERNOON.
WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT (4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) AND
4-6 FT (4-7 FT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT
INTO THU EVENING. WAVES AND SEAS BUILD ONCE AGAIN TO 4-7 FT WITH THE
SURGE THIS WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...HET/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AC/KMC
MARINE...RMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page