326
FXUS61 KAKQ 191800
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY, MAINLY
TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST. DRY WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH A SLOW MODERATING
TREND STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1255 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS E/SE VIRGINIA AND
NE NC.
EARLY AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (AND THE SFC AND ALOFT) OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A SECONDARY LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS
COAST. IT IS MUCH COOLER (BUT SEASONABLE) WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
40S-AROUND 50F WITH N-NNE WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES UP THE COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH
OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FA BY EARLY FRI AM.
MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES THROUGH 2-4 AM, WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS ERN VA/NE NC AFTER THAT. QPFS THROUGH 12Z/7AM ARE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 30S-40F.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND COOL FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.
- PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SE US FRI MORNING WHILE A
SURFACE LEVEL CLIPPER MOVES N OF THE AREA ONLY BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE
COASTLINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FRI
EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NE, POPS INCREASE
FOR THE EASTERN SHORE TO BE AROUND 50-60%. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE FA AS THE LOW REGROUPS JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. ANY ACCUMULATION FROM THIS LOW WILL BE
LOW WITH QPFS AROUND 0.1-0.2 INCHES FOR THE DAY.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL FOR THE
NIGHT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN SHORE IS
POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SMALL SATURATED LAYER
THROUGH THE DGZ AND SURFACE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. HOWEVER, THIS PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF AND
NOT ACCUMULATE AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CAA INTO THE REGION, OVERNIGHT
TEMPS THURS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION (SE
VA/NE NC IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S), DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS FOR FRI REMAIN COOL IN THE MID 40S AND UPPER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. FRI NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT FREEZING
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. BY SAT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH COOLER DRIER AIR PREVENTING HIGHS TO NOT EXCEED THE LOWER 40S
FOR THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
00Z/19 EPS/GEFS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY
AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN DAMPENS. 19/00Z EPS/GEFS EACH
CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE COLDEST 2M TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH THE EPS SHOWING ON THE ORDER OF
-15 TO -20F BELOW AVERAGE AND THE GEFS AROUND -15F BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S S AND SW UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING THEN DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND, WITH
SOME LOWER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES AS RATHER
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH STRONG NEARLY
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. LOWS ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA AND NE NC WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WHERE A
LIGHT NNE BREEZE PERSISTS.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT MONDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DAMPENING OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND BROAD RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM
THE W. HOWEVER, MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH 1036-1038MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING SW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FORECAST
HIGHS MONDAY ARE ONLY IN THE MID 30S N AND NW TO LOWER 40S SE. THE
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. COLD MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ARE STILL POSSIBLE INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER ARRIVES WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALSO, TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD
ALONG THE COASTS OF SE VA AND NE NC WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
FARTHER OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE W. LOWS CHRISTMAS EVE WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S/AROUND 40F ALONG THE COAST, AND COULD
WARM A FEW DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. FORECAST HIGHS FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY PRESENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID
50S SE. NBM POPS INCREASE TO ~20% CHRISTMAS DAY (WHICH IS NEAR
CLIMO) WITH SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL WILL LIKELY BE RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
32F PRIOR TO THE ONSET.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE CIGS DROP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AT ORF/ECG WITH CIGS LIKELY DROPPING
TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (60-80%)
SHIFTING TO SBY, WITH 30-60% POPS AT THE VA/NC TERMINALS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ON FRI, WITH IFR POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...AND VSBYS
IN THE RAIN WILL MAINLY BE VFR/MVFR. GUSTY N-NNE WINDS DIMINISH
TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME N AT ~10 KT ON FRIDAY, AND
SHIFT TO THE NNW FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AT RIC BY EARLY FRI
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES/LOWER CIGS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY AT SBY). DRY WX/VFR CIGS RETURN TO ALL SITES
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NNW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT AS WELL.
MARINE
AS OF 410 AM EST THURSDAY...
- STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS
WERE NNW 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. WAVES
WERE 2-3 FT AND SEAS WERE 3-4 FT. NORTH WINDS 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY, THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THIS AFTN WHILE BECOMING NNE. AS SUCH, SCAS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN, THROUGH THIS AFTN, AND
INTO THIS EVENING. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO FRI, BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE (AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT, WITH WINDS
BECOMING NW/N 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FRI EVENING INTO
SUN. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SURGE.
WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT (4-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY)
AND 4-6 FT (4-7 FT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) RESPECTIVELY
DURING TODAY. WAVES AND SEAS BUILD ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6 FT WITH
THE SURGE THIS WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
634-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...HET/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM/TMG
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