200
FXUS61 KAKQ 200215
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
915 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY, MAINLY
TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST. DRY WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH A SLOW MODERATING
TREND STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 915 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS E/SE VIRGINIA AND
NE NC.
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND A WEAKER LOW FORMING OFF THE SE COAST. ALOFT, A
TROUGH DIPS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
FALLING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NW WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 30S. HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
ACCORDINGLY AND NOW ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NW, LOW 30S
FOR MOST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND LOW-MID 40S IN THE
SE AND NEAR THE COAST.
THE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT BECOMING OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE FA BY EARLY FRI AM.
MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES THROUGH 2-4 AM, WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS ERN VA/NE NC AFTER THAT. QPFS THROUGH 12Z/7AM ARE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND COOL FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.
- PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SUNDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE INITIALLY JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TAKES ON A NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA AND MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE
SECONDARY LOW PROGGED TO BE OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE MORNING WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT THE RAIN
AMOUNTS (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA. REGARDLESS, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE COAST
(BEST CHANCES ON THE EASTERN SHORE) THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A LITTLE
BIT OF RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES
AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE PIEDMONT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND DEEPENS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT...COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AS WINDS TURN FROM THE N TO NNW.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO DROP TO BELOW 15% WEST OF THE BAY
BUT PRECIP POTENTIALLY CONTINUES ON THE EASTERN SHORE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ENDING FROM W-E EARLY SATURDAY. WITH THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...THE PRECIP MAY END AS LIGHT SNOW ON THE MD
EASTERN SHORE. BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE PRECIP...NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. TOTAL QPFS ARE
LESS THAN 0.10" INLAND, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.15-0.30" NEAR
THE COAST. WHILE IT IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION, RAIN AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED 0.50" IN COASTAL AREAS IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED. THE NAM/NAMNEST HINT AT THIS...BUT ARE OUTLIERS
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STEADIER RAIN
NEAR THE COAST...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A BIT FOR FRI WITH
LOWER/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S SE. FRI NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND FREEZING. COOLER/DRY WX IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NNW. IN
ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH) ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S.
ANOTHER PUSH OF CAA IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED JUST TO OUR NW. COLD SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS-MID 20S. IT MAY STILL SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST BUT
WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ON THE MD EASTERN
SHORE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE MID/UPPER 30S S
AND SW UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
THEN DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND, WITH SOME LOWER TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT/MD EASTERN SHORE AS RATHER
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG
(~1040MB) HIGH NEARBY. LOWS ALONG THE COASTS OF SE VA AND NE NC WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WHERE A LIGHT NNE BREEZE PERSISTS.
A SLOW MODERATING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE 1036-1038MB
HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS OUT...LEADING TO WAA ALOFT. FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S N AND NW TO LOWER 40S SE. COLD MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ARE STILL POSSIBLE INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER ARRIVES WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALSO, TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD
ALONG THE COASTS OF SE VA AND NE NC WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
FARTHER OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE W. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...AND THAT BOUNDARY
MAY LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN ADDITION, NBM POPS INCREASE TO ~20%
CHRISTMAS DAY (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMO) AND REMAIN AROUND THERE THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY DUE TO SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE ABOVE 32F PRIOR TO THE ONSET.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS TO START THE 20/00Z
TAF PERIOD. HAVE NOTICED INTERMITTENT MVFR AT ORF/ECG, SO HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS REALLY FILL IN. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING UP
THE COAST WILL BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND PRECIP. BEING
FURTHER INLAND, RIC WILL BE SPARED MOST OF THE IMPACTS, BUT WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SHOWER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. CIGS DROP TO DROP TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT, THEN COASTAL
AREAS DROP TO IFR TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIP STARTS AT THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. SBY LIKELY
SEES RAIN BY MID-DAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM S TO N LATE IN
THE DAY TOMORROW. RELATIVELY LIGHT N/NE WINDS TURN TO THE NW AND
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD, BECOMING GUSTY AT THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AT RIC BY EARLY FRI
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES/LOWER CIGS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY AT SBY). DRY WX/VFR CIGS RETURN TO ALL SITES
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NNW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT AS WELL.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS IS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N IA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE LOCAL WATERS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY N/NNE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, REMAINING 10-15 KT INTO FRI
AFTERNOON. THE LOW OVER IA MOVES ESE FRI, EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH
THE COASTAL LOW FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT AS IT LIFTS NE AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THE FIRST LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO BECOME NW/NNW 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AS EARLY AS LATE
FRI AFTERNOON, REMAINING ELEVATED INTO SUN. SCAS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THIS SURGE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND (DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS), WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
SCAS FOR THE SECOND SURGE LATE FRI INTO SUN FOR THIS UPDATE TO AVOID
CONFUSION. INSTEAD. WILL LIKELY ISSUE SCAS FOR THE WEEKEND SURGE
ONCE SCAS FOR THE CURRENT SURGE ARE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OR ARE
CANCELLED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE UNIFORM MESSAGE. WILL NOTE
THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS FOR REACHING SCA
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SCA-LEVEL
WINDS ARE LIKELY HERE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
WIND DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 1-3 FT AND 3-6 FT RESPECTIVELY (3-4 FT ACROSS
THE N COASTAL WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE S WATERS) THIS AFTERNOON.
WAVES AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
BUILDING BACK TO 3-5 FT AND 4-7 FT RESPECTIVELY FRI NIGHT INTO SUN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...AC/ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RMM
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