417
FXUS61 KAKQ 200644
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
144 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST. DRY
WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND STARTING
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 915 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS E/SE VIRGINIA AND
NE NC.
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND A WEAKER LOW FORMING OFF THE SE COAST. ALOFT, A
TROUGH DIPS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ARE
FALLING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NW WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 30S. HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
ACCORDINGLY AND NOW ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NW, LOW 30S
FOR MOST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND LOW-MID 40S IN THE
SE AND NEAR THE COAST.
THE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT BECOMING OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE FA BY EARLY FRI AM.
MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES THROUGH 2-4 AM, WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS ERN VA/NE NC AFTER THAT. QPFS THROUGH 12Z/7AM ARE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND COOL FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.
- PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SUNDAY MORNING.
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE INITIALLY JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TAKES ON A NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA AND MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE
SECONDARY LOW PROGGED TO BE OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE MORNING WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT THE RAIN
AMOUNTS (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA. REGARDLESS, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE COAST
(BEST CHANCES ON THE EASTERN SHORE) THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A LITTLE
BIT OF RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES
AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. THE PIEDMONT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND DEEPENS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT...COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AS WINDS TURN FROM THE N TO NNW.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO DROP TO BELOW 15% WEST OF THE BAY
BUT PRECIP POTENTIALLY CONTINUES ON THE EASTERN SHORE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ENDING FROM W-E EARLY SATURDAY. WITH THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN...THE PRECIP MAY END AS LIGHT SNOW ON THE MD
EASTERN SHORE. BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE PRECIP...NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. TOTAL QPFS ARE
LESS THAN 0.10" INLAND, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.15-0.30" NEAR
THE COAST. WHILE IT IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION, RAIN AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED 0.50" IN COASTAL AREAS IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS FASTER
THAN EXPECTED. THE NAM/NAMNEST HINT AT THIS...BUT ARE OUTLIERS
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STEADIER RAIN
NEAR THE COAST...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A BIT FOR FRI WITH
LOWER/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S SE. FRI NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND FREEZING. COOLER/DRY WX IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NNW. IN
ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH) ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S.
ANOTHER PUSH OF CAA IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED JUST TO OUR NW. COLD SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS-MID 20S. IT MAY STILL SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST BUT
WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ON THE MD EASTERN
SHORE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH. IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE MID/UPPER 30S S
AND SW UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
THEN DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS INLAND, WITH SOME LOWER TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT/MD EASTERN SHORE AS RATHER
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG
(~1040MB) HIGH NEARBY. LOWS ALONG THE COASTS OF SE VA AND NE NC WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WHERE A LIGHT NNE BREEZE PERSISTS.
A SLOW MODERATING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE 1036-1038MB
HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS OUT...LEADING TO WAA ALOFT. FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY ARE
ONLY IN THE MID 30S N AND NW TO LOWER 40S SE. COLD MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ARE STILL POSSIBLE INLAND TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER ARRIVES WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALSO, TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD
ALONG THE COASTS OF SE VA AND NE NC WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
FARTHER OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE W. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...AND THAT BOUNDARY
MAY LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN ADDITION, NBM POPS INCREASE TO ~20%
CHRISTMAS DAY (WHICH IS NEAR CLIMO) AND REMAIN AROUND THERE THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY DUE TO SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE ABOVE 32F PRIOR TO THE ONSET.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR/MVFR CIGS WERE PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES AS OF 130 AM THIS
MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE OFF
THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND PCPN TO THE COASTAL TAF SITES FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. BEING FARTHER INLAND, RIC WILL BE SPARED
MOST OF THE IMPACTS, BUT WILL LIKELY STILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF SHOWER THIS AFTN. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT THE
COASTAL TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTN. PCPN WILL START AT THE SE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SBY LIKELY SEES RAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE FROM S TO NE LATE IN THE DAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RELATIVELY LIGHT NE/N WINDS TURN TO THE NW AND INCREASE LATE IN
THE PERIOD, BECOMING GUSTY AT THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AT RIC BY EARLY TONIGHT, BUT
PCPN CHANCES/LOWER CIGS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST (ESPLY AT SBY).
DRY WX/VFR CIGS RETURN TO ALL SITES SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT, AS
WELL.
MARINE
AS OF 940 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM FRIDAY FOR THE NC COASTAL
WATERS FOR LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.
- SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN, THE BAY,
LOWER JAMES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND FROM LATE FRI AFTN OR EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF 4TH PERIOD (SATURDAY).
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SC COAST THIS EVENING,
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC. THIS IS BRINGING NE
WINDS OF 10-20 KT TO THE MARINE AREA, HIGHER ACROSS THE NC
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS THERE ARE STILL HOVERING ~5 FT AND HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 1 AM FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE
CASES WHERE THE SEAS DO NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NE AND DEEPENS OFFSHORE FRI/FRI NIGHT, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SCA LEVELS BY LATER AFTN OR EVENING. DECIDED TO RAISE SCAS
STARTING 21Z/4PM OR 00Z/7PM FRIDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OCEAN, THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AT SEEING WINDS AT LEAST INTO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT, LIKELY A BIT STRONGER AFTER CAA
STARTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND WILL STAY ELEVATED INTO
SUN (SO THE SCAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH LATER
SHIFTS). WILL NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
RIVERS FOR REACHING SCA CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SCA- LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY HERE LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN THE STRONG CAA AND FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A PERIOD OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE MAINLY 1-2 FT AND 3-5 FT RESPECTIVELY (3-4
FT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND ~5 FT ACROSS THE NC
WATERS). WAVES AND SEAS MAY SUBSIDE A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT,
BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 3-5 FT AND 4-7 FT RESPECTIVELY FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/TMG
NEAR TERM...AC/ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RMM
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