621
FXUS61 KAKQ 200904
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND STARTING
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NRN IL,
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OFF THE SE NC COAST.
UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKY, TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S TO NEAR 50.
THE SYSTEM OVER NRN IL IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESE TOWARD THE MID
ATLC COAST DURING TODAY, WHILE THE LOW OFF THE COAST TRACKS NE
OFF THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS, PLUS THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH, WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT THE RAIN AMOUNTS (ESPLY NEAR
THE COAST) WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CAN STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. REGARDLESS,
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE COAST (BEST CHANCES ON
THE EASTERN SHORE) THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN
POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES AWAY FROM
THE COAST WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS MORNING, BEFORE DROPPING
DURING THIS AFTN/EVENING. THE PIEDMONT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND DEEPENS OFFSHORE TONIGHT, COLDER/DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN AS WINDS TURN FROM THE N TO NNW. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN CHANCES TO DROP TO BELOW 15% WEST OF THE BAY, BUT PRECIP
POTENTIALLY CONTINUES ON THE EASTERN SHORE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT, BEFORE ENDING FROM W-E EARLY SAT. WITH THE COLDER
AIR FILTERING IN, THE PRECIP MAY END AS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ON
THE MD EASTERN SHORE. BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE PRECIP, NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
TOTAL QPFS ARE 0.05" OR LESS INLAND, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
0.10-0.20" NEAR THE COAST. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF TODAY WITH STEADIER RAIN NEAR THE COAST, HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH, AND UPPER 40S SE. TONIGHT WILL
BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS FROM WSW TO ENE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER/DRY WX IS EXPECTED ON SAT, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NNW. IN ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS ON
SAT ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. ANOTHER PUSH OF CAA
IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT, AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE REGION SUN NIGHT. COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. IT MAY STILL SOMEWHAT
BREEZY NEAR THE COAST, BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT
INLAND. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE. COLD BUT SUNNY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN, WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 30S.
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY.
- A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
A SLOW MODERATING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE 1036-1038MB
HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT, LEADING TO WAA ALOFT. FORECAST HIGHS
MONDAY ARE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S N AND NW, TO THE LOWER
40S SE. COLD MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ARE
STILL POSSIBLE INLAND TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER ARRIVES WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ALSO, TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD ALONG THE COASTS OF SE
VA AND NE NC WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES FARTHER
OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
W. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...AND THAT
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SO EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
IN ADDITION, NBM POPS INCREASE TO ~20% CHRISTMAS DAY (WHICH IS
NEAR CLIMO) AND REMAIN AROUND THERE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY DUE TO
SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
32F PRIOR TO THE ONSET.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR/MVFR CIGS WERE PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES AS OF 130 AM THIS
MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE OFF
THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND PCPN TO THE COASTAL TAF SITES FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. BEING FARTHER INLAND, RIC WILL BE SPARED
MOST OF THE IMPACTS, BUT WILL LIKELY STILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF SHOWER THIS AFTN. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT THE
COASTAL TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTN. PCPN WILL START AT THE SE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SBY LIKELY SEES RAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE FROM S TO NE LATE IN THE DAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
RELATIVELY LIGHT NE/N WINDS TURN TO THE NW AND INCREASE LATE IN
THE PERIOD, BECOMING GUSTY AT THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AT RIC BY EARLY TONIGHT, BUT
PCPN CHANCES/LOWER CIGS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST (ESPLY AT SBY).
DRY WX/VFR CIGS RETURN TO ALL SITES SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT, AS
WELL.
MARINE
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS GO INTO EFFECT THE OCEAN, THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVENING, AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND
- THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW
GUSTS TO ~35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN, WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1032+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND N
NEW ENGLAND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
TO THE SOUTHEAST, 1010MB SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSED THE WATERS EARLY THU MORNING. LATEST OBS REFLECT NNE WINDS
OF 10-20 KT OVER THE MARINE AREA, HIGHER ACROSS THE NC COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED BELOW 5 FT SOUTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER, BUT WILL LINGER AROUND 4 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. ELSEWHERE, WAVES AND SEAS WERE MAINLY 1-2
FT AND 3-4 FT, RESPECTIVELY.
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS TODAY AS IT
SLOWLY DEEPENS THROUGH TONIGHT. NNW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO ~20 KT THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER BAY, AND APPROACH SCA
LEVELS BY LATER THIS AFTN IN TO THIS EVENING. SCAS STILL GO INTO
EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, BAY, AND
CURRITUCK SOUND. SCA FLAGS THEN GET RAISED FOR THE LOWER JAMES AT
00Z THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE LOCAL WATERS SEE
WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT, WITH WIND PROBS AND CAMS
STILL HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GET A BIT STRONGER AFTER CAA
ENSUES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 2-3
HR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO ~35 KT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS CAA
PEAKS SATURDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL GALE HEADLINES,
BUT GIVEN THE SHORT EXPECTED DURATION, THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY BEST
HANDLED WITH SMWS AS NEEDED. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT THIS AFTERNOON, 3-
4 FT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE PEAKING AT 3-5 FT SAT
EVENING. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING TO 4-7 FT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE WINDS THEN REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN. SCA GOES INTO EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER RIVERS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WITH SCAS
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY, SOUND, AND OPEN OCEAN ZONES INTO THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO SUNDAY EVENING OR EVEN EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE A BIT WITH A
PERIOD OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT
WEEK THOUGH WINDS REMAIN NNE ~10 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY (WED).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ638.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RMM
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