803
FXUS61 KAKQ 201747
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1247 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, MAINLY TO AREAS
NEAR THE COAST. DRY WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A SLOW MODERATING
TREND STARTING TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE.
- CLEARING TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING ~1005MB LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST OF VA WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING E
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN FORECAST SO FAR WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST
ACROSS THE FA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY-OVERCAST EAST BUT THERE
HAS BEEN SOME SUNSHINE WEST OF I-95. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT RAIN LIKELY THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE PRECIP SLOWLY
TAPERS OFF TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITH THE COLDER FILTERING IN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO ACROSS THE MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING-TONIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE THE PRECIP
EXITS. TOTAL QPFS ARE ONLY 0.10-0.20" AT BEST. WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT, IT WILL BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY MORNING WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER/DRY WX IS EXPECTED ON SAT, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NNW. IN ADDITION, BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS ON
SAT ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. ANOTHER PUSH OF CAA
IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT, AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE REGION SUN NIGHT. COLD SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. IT MAY STILL SOMEWHAT
BREEZY NEAR THE COAST, BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT
INLAND. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE. COLD BUT SUNNY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN, WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 30S.
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 410 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY.
- A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
A SLOW MODERATING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE 1036-1038MB
HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT, LEADING TO WAA ALOFT. FORECAST HIGHS
MON ARE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S N AND NW, TO THE LOWER 40S
SE. DRY AND NOT AS COLD MON NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE
20S, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER ARRIVES WITH
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S NNW TO
LOWER 50S SE TUE, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD N OF THE AREA TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH
THU, WITH LOW PRESSURE EVENTUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE WSW. FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER FOR TUE, WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN WED THROUGH THU, WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WED AND THU.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST FRIDAY...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
RIC/SBY...WITH A POCKET OF IFR CIGS OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. RIC SHOULD
STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND, CIGS LIKELY DROP TO IFR AT SBY AS
LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP
ENDS TONIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR BY 08-10Z, AND FINALLY
VFR BY LATE SAT AM. MVFR TO IFR CIGS (BUT DRY WX) SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC UNTIL 23-03Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING BY A FEW KNOTS LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST ON
SAT.
OUTLOOK: DRY WX/VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS GO INTO EFFECT THE OCEAN, THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVENING, AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND
- THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW
GUSTS TO ~35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN, WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1032+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND N
NEW ENGLAND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
TO THE SOUTHEAST, 1010MB SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSED THE WATERS EARLY THU MORNING. LATEST OBS REFLECT NNE WINDS
OF 10-20 KT OVER THE MARINE AREA, HIGHER ACROSS THE NC COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED BELOW 5 FT SOUTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER, BUT WILL LINGER AROUND 4 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. ELSEWHERE, WAVES AND SEAS WERE MAINLY 1-2
FT AND 3-4 FT, RESPECTIVELY.
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS TODAY AS IT
SLOWLY DEEPENS THROUGH TONIGHT. NNW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO ~20 KT THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER BAY, AND APPROACH SCA
LEVELS BY LATER THIS AFTN IN TO THIS EVENING. SCAS STILL GO INTO
EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, BAY, AND
CURRITUCK SOUND. SCA FLAGS THEN GET RAISED FOR THE LOWER JAMES AT
00Z THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE LOCAL WATERS SEE
WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT, WITH WIND PROBS AND CAMS
STILL HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GET A BIT STRONGER AFTER CAA
ENSUES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 2-3
HR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO ~35 KT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS CAA
PEAKS SATURDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL GALE HEADLINES,
BUT GIVEN THE SHORT EXPECTED DURATION, THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY BEST
HANDLED WITH SMWS AS NEEDED. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT THIS AFTERNOON, 3-
4 FT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE PEAKING AT 3-5 FT SAT
EVENING. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING TO 4-7 FT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE WINDS THEN REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN. SCA GOES INTO EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER RIVERS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WITH SCAS
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY, SOUND, AND OPEN OCEAN ZONES INTO THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO SUNDAY EVENING OR EVEN EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE A BIT WITH A
PERIOD OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT
WEEK THOUGH WINDS REMAIN NNE ~10 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT
MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY (WED).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI/TMG
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...MAM/RMM
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