384
FXUS61 KAKQ 220044
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
744 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE REGION. A
SLOW MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL START TUESDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN POTENTIALLY BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED BY LATER NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1036 MB) IS CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, RIDGING S INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ALOFT, NW FLOW
PREVAILS IN BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA, AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE SE OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S (MID 30S NEAR THE COAST), UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.
THERE IS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LFQ FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING SSE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY
AFTER 06Z MINUS THE VA EASTERN SHORE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
BAY STREAMERS. LOWS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS OR LOWER 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
STRONG ~1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW,
LEADING TO A DRY DAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WHILE WE WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUN, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE DUE TO THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA (850 MB TEMPS -8 TO -11C).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL.
- WEAK LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING OVER
THE REGION, LEADING TO LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA (LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SE).
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.
CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. IN
ADDITION, THE AMERICAN MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD ALSO
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR GRADUALLY
RISING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. THE 12Z NAM AND
CANADIAN REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING LIGHT RAIN INTO SE VA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS
LOW, KEEPING THE AREA DRY. FOR NOW, FOLLOWED SIMILAR TO THE NBM
WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
WE COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE TUESDAY AM DUE TO THE WEAK SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. NOT QUITE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO THE LOW-MID 30S
SE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 250 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY BECOMING
MORE UNSETTLED NEXT WEEKEND.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ON WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY) WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NEW
ENGLAND AND EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIKELY PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON THE HOLIDAY
WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NW, TO THE LOWER 50S SE.
ON THURSDAY AND BEYOND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER NEAR OR OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN US. WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT, A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST, BUT
THESE LIKELY AVOID THE AREA DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS LATE IN THE PERIOD, FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES, BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS SYSTEM. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED DURING THE WEEKEND
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 5-10
KT (OR LESS) ACROSS INLAND AREAS, THOUGH WINDS AVG 10-15 KT
NEAR THE COAST IN SE VA/NE NC. SOME SCT- BKN MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DROP S THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. LESS WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY (THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BKN STRATOCU IN BAY
STREAMERS THAT WOULD AFFECT THE VA EASTERN SHORE/VA
BEACH/CURRITUCK NC (AND POSSIBLY ORF/ECG BY AFTN).
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD COVER
IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN NC AND FAR SE VA TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 730 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
NNW WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT.
- CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT IS
LEADING TO CONTINUED 20-25 KT NNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE A
FEW GUSTS TO 30-35 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT MOST OBS ARE 30 KT
OR BELOW AS OF THIS WRITING. SEAS ARE 4-8 FT AND HIGHEST 10-20+ NM
OFFSHORE...WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 2-4 FT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DEEPEN FURTHER THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE MOVING
FURTHER NE. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN
WINDS ACROSS THE RIVERS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AND SCA HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR THE RIVERS. HOWEVER,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND. N-NNW WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LINGER LONGEST ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS AND THE SCAS THERE DROP OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 5
FT SEAS LINGER LONGEST IN THE SRN WATERS AND THE SCA THERE IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 00Z/7 PM SUNDAY. NOTE THAT 4 FT WAVES AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW. OVERALL, THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A LITTLE
QUICKER WITH REDUCING THE WAVE/SEA HEIGHT SO WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY EXTENSIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THIS SHIFT.
THEREAFTER, MUCH WEAKER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODIFYING COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA, BUT REMAINS CENTERED JUST TO OUR N. WINDS BRIEFLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE, BECOMING NORTHERLY
ON CHRISTMAS DAY/WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER (WEAKER) COLD FRONT. WINDS
LARGELY LOOK SUB-SCA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...HET/MAM/SW
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