034
FXUS61 KAKQ 152120 AAE
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAINFALL PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. BECOMING WINDY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, BRINGING
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
1034MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-
MS VALLEY, WITH A COASTAL TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING FROM
JUST N OF HATTERAS, EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST. ALOFT,
FLOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FROM QUASI-ZONAL OVER
THE EASTERN-THIRD OF THE NATION TO MORE DEEP- LAYERED SW FLOW
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE
MID-SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TOWARD W TX. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING A PLUME OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW AIR EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
12Z SOUNDINGS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE MID- SOUTH
AVERAGED 1-1.50" (~150-200% OF NORMAL AND NEAR DAILY MAXES FOR
MID-FEB). HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALOFT.
RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC OVERRUNNING (295-300K SFCS). THAT
BEST SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/1AM TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHERE 1-1.25" OF QPF IS FORECAST. TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOTALS RAMP DOWN TO 0.75 ALONG AND SOUTH OF
US-460 AND 0.25" SOUTH OF US 58 FROM FRANKLIN TO VA BEACH INTO
ADJACENT NE NC. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH
THE MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN HOW WET MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WPC HAS INCLUDED THE THE NORTHERN
2/3 OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER
OUR FAR W-NW PIEDMONT AREAS THAT WILL BE STUCK IN THE STRENGTHENING
IN-SITU CAD. FARTHER SE, THE COASTAL FRONT WILL ADVECT SSE
MARINE AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE VERY MUCH NON-DIURNAL. "OVERNIGHT LOWS" ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING THEREAFTER. EXPECTING A
LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
CHARACTER BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE VICE STRATIFORM, AS
THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RAMP UP SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- VERY BREEZY TO WINDY SUNDAY EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND
SECTIONS WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, BRINGING
PRECIP TO A QUICK END WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING NEAR THE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
12Z MODELS REMAIN VERY WELL ALIGNED IN TAKING THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM SUN NIGHT
INTO MIDDAY ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE
DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED AWAY FROM THE CAD. SUSTAINED WINDS
INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH (LOWEST NW AND
HIGHEST SE) SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE PRE-
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND WITH 45-60+ KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER, CONCERN CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES, ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT ICING. ACCORDINGLY,
WE HAVE ADDED ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES TO THE PIEDMONT AND
ADDED A SHORT IMPACT-DRIVEN HIGH WIND WARNING CENTERED ON THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW, COINCIDENT WITH THE
CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR
CONTINUES FROM SPC, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. EXPECT LOW-
TOPPED GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LOW- LEVEL
SHEAR AND 0-1KM SRH (MINIMAL SBCAPE REMAINS THE LIMITING
FACTOR), EXPECT SOME ELEMENTS OF ROTATION TO BE PRESENT. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, A
BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, BRINGING AN END TO ANY SEVERE THREAT. PRECIP WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY EVENING, REMAINING BREEZY NEAR THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. HIGH TEMPS
WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOW 60S NW TO MID/UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SE. LOWS OVERNIGHT TUMBLE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY LEADING TO RETURN OF COOL/DRY
WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NW TO
THE UPPER 40S SE. COLD AND DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE LOW/MID 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 415 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE COLD NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
BECOMES CUTOFF OVER EASTERN CANADA, WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST. ALL OF THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR A WINTER STORM
(POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) IMPACTING MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THE WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THE 12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
AVERAGE TO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE, SHOWING ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES,
WITH LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE COAST AND
LIFTING NNE. HOWEVER, DESPITE GENERAL AGREEMENT, SOME MODEST BUT
IMPORTANT DISAGREEMENTS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED LOW
TRACK AND STRENGTH LIFTING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE GENERAL TREND TO TOWARD A MORE NORTHWESTERLY LOW
TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
THE AREA. THE ECMWF/ENS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH
EVEN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AT 12Z/15 VS THE OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES
WITH WIDESPREAD 60-80% PROBS OF >=3" (40-70% OF 6+) OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS CENTRAL VA INTO THE EASTERN SHORE. THE GEFS HAS THE LOWER
PROBS AT THIS TIME FOR 3" OF SNOW WITH THE GEPS STILL SERVING
AS THE MIDDLE GROUND IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES. HAVE CONTINUED
TO SLOWLY INCREASE POPS WITH EACH FORECAST CYCLE, WITH POPS
STILL IN THE HIGH END LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE (60-80%). WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY SNOW NW AND N WITH MIXED PRECIP
INCREASING WITH SE EXTENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS (DETERMINISTIC
RUNS ESPECIALLY) DO CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT
FOR THE SE HALF OF THE AREA, WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A
MIXED BAG OF P-TYPES. THIS EVENT STILL HAS A RATHER HIGH CEILING
WITH QPF WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES. FOLLOW THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DETAILS COME INTO FOCUS. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...
VFR/LCL MVFR ACROSS LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SE WINDS
INCREASE TO ~10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 AT SBY, ORF, AND ECG LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CIGS ALSO LOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. IFR CIGS
WILL IMPACT RIC AFTER 21-22Z, SPREADING NORTHEAST TO SBY BETWEEN
21-23Z. FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, CIGS TAKE A BIT MORE TIME
TO LOWER BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT PHF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON, LOWERING TO IFR LATER ON THIS EVENING. ORF AND
ECG WILL SEE IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE
HEAVIEST AT RIC AND SBY THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO, WITH
VSBY TO OCCASIONALLY FALL BELOW 3 SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR
VSBY IS ALSO FORECAST AT PHF THIS EVENING AS MOIST AIR INTERACTS
WITH THE COOLER WATERS. FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY
TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPING 60-70+KT LLJ. WIDESPREAD LLWS IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE INCLUDED WS GROUPS AT EACH TERMINAL TONIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE AREA. ELEVATED SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT LOOK TO CROSS THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING AT
RIC, REACHING COASTAL TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUSLY
REFERENCED LLJ WILL HELP TO MIX DOWN GUSTY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH, ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE LINE. LLWS OF
50-60 KT IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TERMINALS SUNDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH INCREASING NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT.
- GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR S-SW WINDS ON
SUNDAY BECOMING WEST SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTS TO 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER MORE WINTRY SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID SCA TO GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SLID OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N
TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST OBS INDICATE ONSHORE
WINDS AROUND 5KT. JUST TO THE S OF LOCAL WATERS, WINDS HAVE
TURNED S AND INCREASED TO 10-15KT. SEAS ARE 2-4FT AND WAVES ARE
1-2FT BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE WINDS TURN TO THE S AND INCREASE
TO 10-15KT IN THE BAY/RIVERS AND 15-20KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE TONIGHT AS THOSE WINDS
INCREASE. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE 5FT+ SEAS STARTING AT 1AM TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SUN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH A
STRONG LLJ (50-60KT+) WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS ALL
LOCAL WATERS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 25-30KT BY MID-MORNING
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WIND GUSTS
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND RIVERS WILL ACTUALLY BE HIGHER (UP
TO 45KT AT ITS PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON) DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS
OVER THE WARMER LAND WHERE MIXING IS BETTER BLEEDING ACROSS THE
LAND/WATER INTERFACE. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS.
WINDS TURN TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
WIND/WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW GALES DURING THIS
TRANSITION, BUT QUICKLY PICK BACK UP TO 25-30KT (GUSTS AROUND
35KT) AS CAA ENSUES, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY, DROPPING TO (NW) 10-15KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AN AREA OF
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GALES MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT LOCAL MARINE ZONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS WITH 20-30KT WINDS
CURRENTLY FORECAST BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE LOW.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS CANCELLED FOR THE MEHERRIN AT
LAWRENCEVILLE FOR NOW, THOUGH ADDITIONAL FLOODING AT THE SITE IS
POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOODING IS LIKELY
AT THE JAMES RIVER/RIC WESTHAM AND RIC LOCKS FOR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING ON THE NOTTOWAY AND APPOMATTOX WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
083>086-099-100-512-517>522.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ080>082-
087>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-523>525.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-079-509>511.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-
631-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
634-656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...AC
HYDROLOGY...
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