998
FXUS61 KAKQ 162032
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING, MAINTAINING BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME, POTENTIALLY RETURNING MORE WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
A PASSING COLD FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR AREAS
WEST OF I-95 THROUGH THIS EVENING AND FROM I-95 EASTWARD
(INCLUDING THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE) UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
- GRADUAL CLEARING AND DRYING OUT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S WELL INLAND, AND LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS ~984MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER NE PA
THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS PUSHED THROUGH
EARLIER IN THE DAY LARGELY AS EXPECTED, TAKING THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS WITH THEM. THE TRAILING MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH
WIND WARNINGS BACK TO WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF BETTER MIXING OF REMNANT GUSTY
WINDS ALOFT, WHICH PORTENDS A FEW MORE HOURS OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS. EXPECT WE'LL SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH THROUGH EARLY
EVENING OUT IN THE PIEDMONT, AND INTO THE LATER EVENING ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
QUICK CLEARING TONIGHT. RESULTANT COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS
COOLER/DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON GUSTY W-NW WINDS,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVELY WELL- MIXED,
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA NOSES SE
INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BUILDS TO THE WEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO RETURN OF COOL/DRY WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
NORTH, 45 TO 50 CENTRAL AND SOUTH. A BIT COLDER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE S AND SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON
TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN SHORE RELATIVE TO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 20S N TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S SE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO
IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLD WEATHER REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST. AS THIS OCCURS
A LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
THE LATEST 12Z/16 OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL
ENSEMBLES (GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES, WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
AND THEN LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. HOWEVER,
THEY STILL CONTINUE TO VARY ON TOTALS AS WELL AS THE THEIR
ENSEMBLES. THE EURO AND CANADIAN LOOK TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH POTENTIAL TOTALS THAN THE GEFS. THE GEFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW VALUES AS IT CONTINUES TO HINT ON A WARM
NOSE AT 850MB CREEPING ITS WAY SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
CANADIAN AND EURO ENSEMBLES. THE PROBAILITIES OF SNOWFALL HAS
RISEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS ALL ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z EURO AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE SHOWS SWATHS OF 90 TO 100% PROBS OF >=3" OF SNOW WITH
60 TO 80% PROBS FOR >=6" OF SNOW. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR >=12" PROBS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
NOW IN THE 20 TO 30% CONTOUR WITH THE CANADIAN AND EURO. THE
GEFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER PROBABILITIES BUT THE 50TH
PERCENTILE STILL SHOWS A WIDE FOOTPRINT OF 4-6" ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OVERALL 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIGHTLY TREND
COOLER WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. THIS COLDER WEATHER WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PLACEMENT OF MIXED PRECIP CORRIDORS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE FAR SE AS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL WARM NOSE CREEPING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. WILL ALSO
NOTE, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FAR SE COAST BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE TIME
HOWEVER, THE POSSIBILITY OF NEARING BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THIS EVENT HAS A HIGH CEILING FOR SNOW TOTALS WITH QPF WELL OVER AN
INCH ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL REDUCE TOTALS
SIGNIFICANTLY. SPECIFICS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS SO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES AND WHERE.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. W-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-35 KT
INLAND AND 30-40 KT ALONG THE COAST, ALONG WITH LLWS FROM THE
SW AT 45-55 KTS. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALOFT THIS EVENING,
WITH SURFACE WINDS TO SIMILARLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING INTO THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS, WHILE TURNING TO THE W-NW.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT RETURN MONDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LOOKS TO MAINTAIN DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD,
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION BACK
INTO THE FORECAST IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LOOKING LIKELY.
MARINE
AS OF 625 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR S-SW WINDS
TODAY BECOMING WEST TONIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTS TO 35- 40 KT ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH GUSTS OF 45 KT ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE DURING THE DAY TODAY.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
- ANOTHER MORE WINTRY SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID SCA TO GALE
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR THE NORTHERN
TWO BAY AND OCEAN ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST...
EARLY THIS MORNING, A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
TRACK NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WHILE THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE S BUT ONLY AT 10-15
KT. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN TO 980-985 MB AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS
THROUGH THE NE CONUS LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTN. MARINE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS. RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW S-SW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS
(DESPITE THE STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER). THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
LIKELY PEAK BETWEEN 11 AM AND 3 PM TODAY. WILL LIKELY SEE FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 40-45 KT ON THE RIVERS, SOUTHERN/WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY,
AND ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS IS DUE TO HIGHER WINDS
OVER THE MUCH WARMER LAND (WHERE MIXING IS DEEPER) BLEEDING ACROSS
THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. LOOKING AT NAM/HRRR/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FOR PHF/ORF...CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KT ON THE JAMES
RIVER AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHES BAY FROM LATE MORNING-
MID AFTN. HOWEVER, LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 48 KT WINDS OVER THE WATER
REMAIN BELOW 10% (AND PROBS FOR 43 KT GUSTS ARE 10-30% OVER MUCH OF
THE MARINE AREA). AS SUCH, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GALE WARNINGS BUT
WILL MENTION THAT GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER NEARSHORE AS OPPOSED TO OVER
THE OPEN WATER. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC WIND, A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT (LIKELY
IMPACTING THE WATERS BETWEEN NOON-3 PM). GIVEN A VERY STRONG (60 KT)
LLJ JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, BRIEF LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 50-60 KT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT,
ANY BRIEF CONVECTIVE GUSTS OF 48 KT OR GREATER WILL BE HANDLED WITH
SMWS. ONE LAST NOTE: HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LAND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE MARINE AREA. WHILE IN MOST SITUATIONS THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WATERS...THE
HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IMPACT-BASED (TO ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASED
THREAT OF TREE DAMAGE DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND) AS THE WIND
FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS SHOWS PEAK GUSTS AROUND 45 KT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, THESE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BLEED INTO THE RIVERS/NEARSHORE
WATERS. BUT CURRENT THINKING (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOMENTUM
TRANSFER CALCULATIONS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS LOCAL WIND
PROBS) IS THAT A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF FREQUENT STORM FORCE GUSTS IS
UNLIKELY ON THE WATERS.
WINDS TURN TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS/WIND
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW GALES DURING THIS TRANSITION, BUT
QUICKLY PICK BACK UP TO 25-30KT (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT) AS CAA
ENSUES, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTN FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY,
DROPPING TO (NW) 15-25 KT BY EARLY MON EVENING. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
RETURN BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT (AND LAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
TUE NIGHT). WINDS BECOME N AT 15-20 KT BY EARLY WED AS A CAA SURGE
CROSSES THE WATERS. AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
COAST MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT LOCAL MARINE ZONES ARE LIKELY
TO SEE IMPACTS WITH 20-30 KT (WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT) WINDS
CURRENTLY FORECAST BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE LOW.
SEAS ARE 3-5 FT AT THIS HOUR AND WILL BUILD TO 6-10 FT (WITH 3-5 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY) BY LATER TODAY WITH THE STRONG S-SW WINDS. SEAS
REMAIN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE TONIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING ON MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY MON NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, AS THAT POINT WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND-WESTHAM AND THE
RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE
AND MATTOAX. ADDITIONAL MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE JAMES, APPOMATTOX, AND CHOWAN BASINS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST SITE
SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ075>078-
080>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-079-509>511.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ERI
HYDROLOGY...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page