366
FXUS61 KAKQ 170836
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA EXTENDING TO THE SE.
STRONG +1035MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA TO THE MIDWEST AS
A 974MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. WNW WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH. COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, PREVENTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING THIS MORNING. TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL REACH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 30S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR MOST WITH LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT AND EASTERN SHORE. MONDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE W WITH WINDS DECREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH DOWN
TO THE MID 20S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MOST OF THE
AREA IN THE UPPER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ON
THE EASTERN SHORE, THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN NECK AND PIEDMONT,
THE MID 40S FOR THE REST OF THE VA AREA, TO THE UPPER 40S FOR NE NC.
THE EASTERN SHORE WILL STAY COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE CWA WITH
GUSTIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA NOSES SE
INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BUILDS TO THE WEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO RETURN OF COOL/DRY WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
NORTH, 45 TO 50 CENTRAL AND SOUTH. A BIT COLDER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE S AND SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON
TUESDAY OVER THE EASTERN SHORE RELATIVE TO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 20S N TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S SE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO
IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLD WEATHER REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST. AS THIS OCCURS
A LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
THE LATEST 12Z/16 OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE MODEL
ENSEMBLES (GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES, WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
AND THEN LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. HOWEVER,
THEY STILL CONTINUE TO VARY ON TOTALS AS WELL AS THE THEIR
ENSEMBLES. THE EURO AND CANADIAN LOOK TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH POTENTIAL TOTALS THAN THE GEFS. THE GEFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW VALUES AS IT CONTINUES TO HINT ON A WARM
NOSE AT 850MB CREEPING ITS WAY SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
CANADIAN AND EURO ENSEMBLES. THE PROBAILITIES OF SNOWFALL HAS
RISEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS ALL ENSEMBLES. THE 12Z EURO AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE SHOWS SWATHS OF 90 TO 100% PROBS OF >=3" OF SNOW WITH
60 TO 80% PROBS FOR >=6" OF SNOW. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR >=12" PROBS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
NOW IN THE 20 TO 30% CONTOUR WITH THE CANADIAN AND EURO. THE
GEFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER PROBABILITIES BUT THE 50TH
PERCENTILE STILL SHOWS A WIDE FOOTPRINT OF 4-6" ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OVERALL 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIGHTLY TREND
COOLER WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. THIS COLDER WEATHER WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PLACEMENT OF MIXED PRECIP CORRIDORS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE FAR SE AS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE
POTENTIAL WARM NOSE CREEPING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. WILL ALSO
NOTE, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FAR SE COAST BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE TIME
HOWEVER, THE POSSIBILITY OF NEARING BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THIS EVENT HAS A HIGH CEILING FOR SNOW TOTALS WITH QPF WELL OVER AN
INCH ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL REDUCE TOTALS
SIGNIFICANTLY. SPECIFICS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS SO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES AND WHERE.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z/17 TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE FAR NE. WNW WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AT 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. A BRIEF
LAPSE IN GUSTS MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND 12Z, BUT OVERALL WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST UNTIL 21-23Z/17 WHEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING
BRINGING LIKELY WINTRY PRECIP IN FORMS OF SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY. DRY
AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR SW WINDS
TODAY BECOMING WEST THIS EVENING FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTS TO 35- 40 KT ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH GUSTS OF 45
KT ARE LIKELY NEAR THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
- ANOTHER MORE WINTRY SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID SCA TO GALE
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF IT. LATEST OBS INDICATED SW WINDS
GENERALLY 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR
ALL WATERS INTO TONIGHT. BUOY OBS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE 6-8FT AND WAVES
ARE 4-5FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE W BEHIND THE FRONT. ELEVATED WIND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASED MIXING OVER THE WATERS ALLOWS THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC ALONG WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECTING W WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
35KT. SEAS WILL STAY AT 6-8FT AND WAVES 4-5FT OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY, LEADING TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WHILE THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW GALE CRITERIA EARLY MON, CONDITIONS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. SCAS WILL THEN LIKELY LAST INTO
MON EVENING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WEST WINDS WILL BE 15-20KT FOR MOST
WATERS, BUT ~25KT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SUB-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO PLACE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO SLIDE UP THE COAST WED INTO THURSDAY. NE
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO WED NIGHT, BECOMING
NW AS THE LOW PUSHES N AND AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY THURS. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW,
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
GALES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, AS THAT POINT WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND-WESTHAM AND THE
RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE
AND MATTOAX. ADDITIONAL MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE JAMES, APPOMATTOX, AND CHOWAN BASINS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST SITE
SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-631-650-
652-654.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-634-656-
658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-635>638.
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...AC
HYDROLOGY...
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