378
FXUS61 KAKQ 170850
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA EXTENDING TO THE SE.
STRONG +1035MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA TO THE MIDWEST AS
A 974MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. WNW WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH. COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, PREVENTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING THIS MORNING. TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL REACH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 30S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR MOST WITH LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT AND EASTERN SHORE. MONDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE W WITH WINDS DECREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH DOWN
TO THE MID 20S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MOST OF THE
AREA IN THE UPPER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ON
THE EASTERN SHORE, THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN NECK AND PIEDMONT,
THE MID 40S FOR THE REST OF THE VA AREA, TO THE UPPER 40S FOR NE NC.
THE EASTERN SHORE WILL STAY COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE CWA WITH
GUSTIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO
IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLD WEATHER REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN
ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE LATEST 00Z/17 OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
(GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES, WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND THEN LIFTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST. PRECIP SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH MOST OF THE QPF/WINTER WX EXPECTED TO COME FROM
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE ON THURSDAY WITH RAPID
DRYING ALOFT EXPECTED FROM SW TO NE ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO AN END BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS A WEAKER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED LOW VS THE 12Z GUIDANCE. QPF HAS ACCORDINGLY
COME DOWN A BIT AS WELL. CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS HAS SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
WEAKER/SUPPRESSED LOW AND LOWER QPF RESULTS IN A STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL FORECAST OF 4-8" ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS FOCUSED EAST OF I-95 INTO THE HAMPTON ROADS METRO AND NE
INTO THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THE GENERAL SE TREND HAVE CUT BACK
ON THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FORECAST BUT THE 00Z NAM
STILL HAS A DECENT CORRIDOR OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS BUT KEPT
TOTALS AOB 0.15". THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN FLUX
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINTER
STORM WARNING LEVEL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA,
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS MODEL CYCLE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS PRECIP EXITS OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD BUT SPECIFIC VALUES WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND DRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT
AGAIN SPECIFICS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR NOW, WILL SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S W AND NW WITH
MID 30S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WARMER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT
IN THE LOW 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID 40 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z/17 TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE FAR NE. WNW WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AT 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. A BRIEF
LAPSE IN GUSTS MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND 12Z, BUT OVERALL WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST UNTIL 21-23Z/17 WHEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND VFR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING
BRINGING LIKELY WINTRY PRECIP IN FORMS OF SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY. DRY
AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
MORNING, AND FOR THE NORTHERN BAY/OCEAN THROUGH 1 PM.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND SHOULD FALL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING
- ANOTHER MORE WINTRY SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID SCA TO GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS ARE AVERAGING 20-30 KT WITH 35-40 KT GUSTS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH 5-8 FT SEAS/3-5 FT WAVES. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE RIVERS UNTIL 7 AM, SOUTHERN BAY/COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 10 AM,
AND NORTHERN BAY/COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 1 PM.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY (ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE
DAY). WHILE THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW GALE CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING, CONDITIONS COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER (AND THAT'S WHY THE WARNING GOES UNTIL 1 PM
HERE). SCAS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO REPLACE THE GALE
WARNINGS...AND GUSTS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT IS
PROGGED TO TRACK NNE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST TO OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. NE WINDS (AND WAVES/SEAS)
WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY
MID-LATE WED AM...WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS (NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT) LIKELY BY WED EVENING. WINDS TURN TO THE N THEN
NW FROM WED NIGHT-THU AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF 35-40 KT GUSTS CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FROM THU THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THU NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8 FT
BY THU, WITH 4-5 FT WAVES ON THE BAY. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE ON
FRIDAY, BUT LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST FRI
EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, RICHMOND-WESTHAM, AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE, MATTOAX, AND MATOACA. WARNINGS
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE
NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR STONY CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS WILL SEE MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST SITE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-631-650-
652-654.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-634-656-
658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-635>638.
SYNOPSIS...KMC/MAM
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...ERI
HYDROLOGY...
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