552
FXUS61 KAKQ 171632
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1132 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA EXTENDING TO THE SE.
LATEST ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD 1038+MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, RIDGING E-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, STRONG ~970MB LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA.
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WILL ALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ON BREEZY
W-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15-20 MPH. WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY DROP
OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES.
HIGHS TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW-MID 40S, COOLEST OF
THE PIEDMONT NW OF KRIC AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
MAINLY CLEAR TO START TONIGHT, WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE
PIEDMONT AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER
20S.
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE NW ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRY DAY UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ON THE EASTERN SHORE, THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTHERN NECK AND PIEDMONT, THE MID 40S FOR THE REST OF THE
VA AREA, TO THE UPPER 40S FOR NE NC. THE EASTERN SHORE WILL STAY
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE CWA WITH ONGOING CAA ON GUSTY NW
WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S
AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO
IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COLD WEATHER REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN
ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE LATEST 00Z/17 OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
(GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES, WITH LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND THEN LIFTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST. PRECIP SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH MOST OF THE QPF/WINTER WX EXPECTED TO COME FROM
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE ON THURSDAY WITH RAPID
DRYING ALOFT EXPECTED FROM SW TO NE ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO AN END BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS A WEAKER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED LOW VS THE 12Z GUIDANCE. QPF HAS ACCORDINGLY
COME DOWN A BIT AS WELL. CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS HAS SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
WEAKER/SUPPRESSED LOW AND LOWER QPF RESULTS IN A STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL FORECAST OF 4-8" ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS FOCUSED EAST OF I-95 INTO THE HAMPTON ROADS METRO AND NE
INTO THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THE GENERAL SE TREND HAVE CUT BACK
ON THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FORECAST BUT THE 00Z NAM
STILL HAS A DECENT CORRIDOR OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS BUT KEPT
TOTALS AOB 0.15". THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN FLUX
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE A WINTER
STORM WARNING LEVEL EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA,
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS MODEL CYCLE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS PRECIP EXITS OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD BUT SPECIFIC VALUES WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND DRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT
AGAIN SPECIFICS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. FOR NOW, WILL SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S W AND NW WITH
MID 30S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WARMER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT
IN THE LOW 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID 40 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/17 TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST, AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. W-NW
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY/BREEZY TO ~15KT INLAND, AND UP TO
20-25 KT AT SBY, ORF, AND PHF. GUSTS SLOWLY DROP OUT FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST, WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING
IN OVERNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINING DRY/VFR CONDITIONS. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP IN FORMS OF
SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 645 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
MORNING, AND FOR THE NORTHERN BAY/OCEAN THROUGH 1 PM.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND SHOULD FALL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING
- ANOTHER MORE WINTRY SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID SCA TO GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SCAS (IN EFFECT THROUGH 7
PM) FOR THE RIVERS/SOUND. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM EST...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. NW WINDS ARE AVERAGING 20-30 KT WITH 35-40 KT GUSTS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH 5-8 FT SEAS/3-5 FT WAVES. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE RIVERS UNTIL 7 AM, SOUTHERN BAY/COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 10 AM,
AND NORTHERN BAY/COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 1 PM.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY (ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE
DAY). WHILE THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW GALE CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING, CONDITIONS COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER (AND THAT'S WHY THE WARNING GOES UNTIL 1 PM
HERE). SCAS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO REPLACE THE GALE
WARNINGS...AND GUSTS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT IS
PROGGED TO TRACK NNE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST TO OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. NE WINDS (AND WAVES/SEAS)
WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY
MID-LATE WED AM...WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS (NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT) LIKELY BY WED EVENING. WINDS TURN TO THE N THEN
NW FROM WED NIGHT-THU AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE
LOW...CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF 35-40 KT GUSTS CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FROM THU THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THU NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8 FT
BY THU, WITH 4-5 FT WAVES ON THE BAY. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE ON
FRIDAY, BUT LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST FRI
EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 1130 AM EST MONDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, RICHMOND-WESTHAM, AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE, MATTOAX, AND MATOACA. WARNINGS
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE
NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR RAWLINGS/STONY CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS
WILL SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST
SITE-SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>638-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...KMC/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...ERI
HYDROLOGY...
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