489
FXUS61 KAKQ 180119
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
819 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 815 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CLEAR/SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS, AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS TO THE SE.
LATEST ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD 1045MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, RIDGING E-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, STRONG 959MB LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MAINE WILL ALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR TO START
TONIGHT, WITH SOME INCREASING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LATE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REACH DOWN TO THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND
EASTERN SHORE WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 20S (LOWER 30S
ALONG THE COAST).
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE NW ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRY DAY UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ON THE EASTERN SHORE, THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTHERN NECK AND PIEDMONT, THE MID 40S FOR THE REST OF THE
VA AREA, TO THE UPPER 40S FOR NE NC. THE EASTERN SHORE WILL STAY
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE CWA WITH ONGOING CAA ON GUSTY NW
WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S
AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OUT OF CANADA AND BUILDS
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO THEN COMPEL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WED MORNING, WITH THAT LOW THEN
LIFTING NORTH- NORTHEAST.
12Z/17 OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
(GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) CONTINUED A SOLUTION SHOWING LESSER
PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND THE TRAILING
POTENT NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS DRIVES A GENERAL
S-SE TREND WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE, WITH LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESSENTIALLY RIC NORTHWARD). OVERALL,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STEADILY INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE SIMILARLY SETTLED OVER CENTRAL AND
SE VA WITH 4+" PROBS (60-80+% FROM RIC SOUTHEAST), WITH 6+"
PROBS 50-70% FROM RIC METRO AND 70-90% OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND
SOUTHSIDE INTO NE NC N OF US-158. NOTABLY 4 AND 6" PROBS HAVE
LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY (20-50% AND 20-30%, RESPECTIVELY) ABOVE
A FVX TO RIC TO SBY LINE.
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND IMPACTS...
PRECIP SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
AS STRONG WAA ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE VERY
COLD AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BROAD SWATH OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE OVERALL QPF HAS
LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, THE INITIAL
SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE (290-300 K SFCS) ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA COULD WELL PROVIDE A STRONG, QUICK
BURST OF SNOW OVER THE NW-THIRD OF THE AREA WED MORNING INTO WED
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD QUICK MAKE FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVELING
CONDITIONS WED MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIC METRO.
GIVEN EXPECTED HIGHER SLRS ON THE PREFERRED EPS/GEPS BLEND, THE
HIGHER SLR WILL HELP "COMPENSATE" FOR THE LOWER QPF TO A DEGREE
FOR THE ACTUAL SNOWFALL FORECAST.
FARTHER SOUTH, MOST OF THE QPF/WINTER WX IS EXPECTED TO COME
FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAXIMA FOR SNOW
AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION
AXIS AND COLOCATED WITH F-GEN FORCING DRIVING MOISTURE INTO THE
DGZ, IMPACTING (PRIMARILY) MUCH OF THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA AND
THE EASTERN SHORE.
SNOW TOTALS...
GIVEN SUBSIDENCE AND RAPID DRYING ALOFT EXPECTED FROM SW TO NE
LATE WED INTO THURSDAY, EXPECT A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO SNOW
TOTALS, ALONG WITH A RATHER ABRUPT END TO SNOW WED NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN RAISED
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-6" ACROSS MD AND THE VA
NORTHERN NECK, WITH 4-8" ACROSS THE RIC METRO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VA. HIGHER TOTALS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO OCCUR ALONG THAT
PIVOTING DEFORMATION BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW,
WITH 5-10" OF SNOW FORECAST. GIVEN THE COLDER, GENERAL SE
TREND, ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA FIGURE TO BE QUITE LOW.
THAT SAID, THE 12Z/17 NAM STILL HAS A DECENT CORRIDOR OF MIXED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ACROSS
INTERIOR NE NC. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IN
THESE AREAS BUT KEPT TOTALS AOB 0.10".
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...
SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION ON THURSDAY, AND WILL QUITE POSSIBLE SET OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES, WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION AS PRECIP EXITS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD BUT SPECIFIC VALUES WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND LOWS LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND DRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ARCTIC AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, BUT AGAIN SPECIFICS WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW, WILL
SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 W AND NW WITH MID 30S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID
40 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 635 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS APART FROM
SBY WHERE NW WINDS REMAIN 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE. SCT HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN
OVERNIGHT TOWARD INTO TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT,
MAINTAINING DRY/VFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX
(SE) TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DRY
AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND SHOULD FALL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING
- ANOTHER MORE WINTRY SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID SCA TO GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND YESTERDAY'S
COLD FRONT. STILL A BIT BREEZY, THOUGH, WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING
WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. WITH
THE WINDS BEING WESTERLY AND COMING OFF OF THE RELATIVELY WARMER
LAND WHERE MIXING IS BETTER, GUSTS NEAR THE SHORE IN THE BAY AND
RIVERS ARE A BIT MORE ELEVATED AT 20-25KT. SCAS FOR THE BAY AND
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THEY ALSO WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE TWO NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES INTO THIS EVENING FOR 5FT+ SEAS AND
WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST AROUND 25KT. HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL
ZONES SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, THOUGH, SINCE SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO
AROUND 3FT AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND SINCE OBS DOWN THERE ARE SUB-
ADVISORY LEVEL. OVERNIGHT, WNW WINDS WILL BE 10-15KT FOR MOST AREAS,
WITH 15-20KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
SUB-ADVISORY, BUT BREEZY, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES IN OVERHEAD AND WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NW. WAVES
WILL BE 1-2FT AND SEAS 2-4FT (HIGHEST NORTH). WINDS TURN TO THE
N/NNE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO 15-
20KT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
IS SET TO DEEPEN AS IT TRAVELS UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE AREA. NE WINDS INCREASE FROM S TO N
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS LOOK TO BE 25-30KT
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 20-25KT ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A
STILL A CHANCE THAT THE NC WATERS WILL NEED A GALE WARNING FOR THE
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR
34KT GUSTS ARE ~30% FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO THE NW
BEHIND THE LOW THURS MORNING AT 20-25KT. THE BEST SHOT AT GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL THEN BE THURS NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE LOW AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOCAL WIND PROBS
FOR 34KT GUSTS FOR THURS NIGHT AND HIGHEST IN THE UPPER BAY (50-70%)
AND THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER (70-90%). ELEVATED
WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 1130 AM EST MONDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, RICHMOND-WESTHAM, AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE, MATTOAX, AND MATOACA. WARNINGS
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE
NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR RAWLINGS/STONY CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS
WILL SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST
SITE-SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>100-509>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/RMM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI
HYDROLOGY...
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