540
FXUS61 KAKQ 180837
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
337 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S, AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS TO THE SE.
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW ~1050MB+ ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS SE INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC WITH
CLEAR/COLD WX LOCALLY W/ TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DRY WX
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS (WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT). THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS. THE EASTERN SHORE WILL STAY COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE CWA
WITH ONGOING CAA W/ GUSTY NW WINDS. ANOTHER SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT, AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S IN MOST AREAS
WITH DEW PTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ANY SNOW LIKELY
REMAINS ACROSS W/SW VA THROUGH SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SE VA AND NE NC. WATCHES
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FARTHER NORTH WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY THE AFTN BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NNE OFF THE
NC/VA COAST WED NIGHT-THU AM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SE VA AND NE NC FROM WED-WED NIGHT WITH
SNOW TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6" LIKELY. WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS HERE AND WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH FARTHER NORTH (INCLUDING
IN THE RIC METRO) WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOW
AMOUNTS (MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL RANGE FROM 2" TO 6"+ ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA).
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND IMPACTS...
PRECIP SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS
DECENT WAA ALOFT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE
INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY TARGET THE PIEDMONT, RIC
METRO, AND TRI CITIES...AND COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 7-9 AM. WITH
THE VERY COLD TEMPS, AREA ROADWAYS COULD BECOME SLICK EVEN AFTER THE
FIRST 0.5" OF ACCUMULATION. THIS COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR THE AM COMMUTE IF THE SNOW MOVES IN EARLY ENOUGH.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IT MOVING IN A BIT LATER (8-11 AM). THE
STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. COULD EASILY SEE A QUICK 1-2" FROM FARMVILLE
TO RICHMOND BY EARLY AFTN.
FARTHER SOUTH, IT MAY VERY WELL STAY DRY THROUGH 11 AM OR NOON
BEFORE THE LOW STARTS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD SE VA AND NE NC DURING THE AFTN THANKS TO
STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW.
RATES WILL LIKELY BE 1-2" PER HOUR AT TIMES BY THE EVENING SOUTH AND
EAST OF AN EMPORIA-WILLIAMSBURG-ACCOMAC LINE. MEANWHILE, LIGHT SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND RIC METRO
FROM W-E BETWEEN 5 AND 11 PM. THE SNOW LIKELY CONTINUES ACROSS SE VA
AND NE NC THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. MIXING WITH PL/FZRA/RA COULD LOWER TOTALS ACROSS COASTAL NE
NC, BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP STAYS AS MOSTLY SNOW IN
NORFOLK/VA BEACH.
SNOW TOTALS...
THE FORECAST HAS LARGELY REMAINED THE SAME ACROSS SE
VA AND NE NC, WHERE A WIDESPREAD 5-10" OF SNOW IS FORECAST. THE
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FROM
GREENSVILLE/DINWIDDIE COUNTIES TO THE VA EASTERN SHORE SOUTHEASTWARD
WHERE CONFIDENCE IN 3" OF SNOW IS VERY HIGH. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS
MUCH GREATER FARTHER NORTH, AS THE ECMWF/HRRR (WHICH ARE ON THE
LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM) HAVE ONLY 1-3", WHILE THE NAM/GFS AND A
COUPLE OF THE CAMS HAVE 6" TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (EXCEPT
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES). WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH FOR THE RIC
METRO NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. EVEN THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER, WILL UPGRADE TO WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT IN COLLABORATION WITH RNK. AS FOR THE FORECAST,
HAVE 2-3" FROM LOUISA TO CAMBRIDGE, 4-5" FROM FARMVILLE-RICHMOND-
TAPPAHANNOCK, AND 5-10" FARTHER SOUTHEAST (W/ 8-10" IN ALL OF
HAMPTON ROADS). LIGHT ICE ACCUMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PART OF NE NC NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY THURSDAY
AM...AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 6 AM-NOON
ON THURSDAY AS ONE FINAL (STRONG) NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH COLD TEMPS AROUND 20- 25F IN THE
MORNING...THIS COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ON AREA
ROADWAYS. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-25 MPH
RANGE IN SE VA THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT, GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO
25-35 MPH DURING THE DAY ON THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. AS SUCH, SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED BLOWING SNOW TO THE FCST ON THU FOR
AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE BAY/COAST WHERE GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST.
ALL SNOW SHOULD EXIT BY 1 PM THU. HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND 32F
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S THU
NIGHT. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THU NIGHT, AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH ARCTIC AIR KEEPING
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BELOW AVERAGE FOR TEMPS. TEMPS FOR AT
LEAST THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL IS RECEIVED AND WHERE. IN GENERAL, THURS NIGHT WILL BE
CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS WITH THE EASTERN SHORE IN THE LOW
20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW FREEZING THRU THE
WEEKEND WITH THURS NIGHT BEING THE COLDEST. FRIDAY SHOULD REACH
ABOVE FREEZING WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SNOW. SAT WILL REACH THE LOWER
40S AND HIGHS SUN WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND IN THE UPPER 40S. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MON/TUES.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z/18 TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH SCT
TO BKN CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA AROUND SBY AND RIC, WITH ONLY
A FEW AT PHF AND ORF. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN 10,000+ FT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD FOR MOST SITES, WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS AT RIC AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY FROM THE W AROUND 5
KT AND WILL BE SHIFTING MORE NORTHERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
(EXCEPT FOR SBY WHICH WILL SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING NORTHWESTERN).
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR AND DRY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING LASTING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING LIKELY WIDESPREAD SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX SE.
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
TONIGHT FOR ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS.
- A WINTRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- QUITER MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED W OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A RESIDUAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUTES TO LEAD TO NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT, THOUGH
THERE ARE A FEW READINGS APPROACHING 15 KT IN THE LOWER AND UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY, IN ADDITION TO THE MD COASTAL WATERS. ALL EARLIER
HEADLINES WERE CANCELLED AND/OR EXPIRED. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
MORNING, HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
UP TO 15-20 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.
GIVEN THAT THIS APPEARS QUITE LOCALIZED AND TRANSIENT, WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEADLINES THIS MORNING AND MENTION GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE CWF.
WINDS RELAX AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SURGE
DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENT TONIGHT AND >18 KT SUSTAINED
WIND PROBABILITIES ARE 50-70% THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE BAY. HAVE
THEREFORE RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL OF THE BAY STARTING AT 03Z/10
PM THIS EVENING AND THE LOWER JAMES STARTING AT 06Z/1 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SURGE LOOKS TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND ONLY HAVE
HEADLINES THROUGH 12-15Z/7 AM-10 AM WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY LIFTING NE NEAR
THE NC OBX WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. N-NNE WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, WITH
ELEVATED WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO ALL OF THE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS N AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL OF THE MARINE AREA WITH WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. THE OCEAN ZONE S OF THE NC/VA BORDER COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 35
KT EARLY THU MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE CONDITIONS (FREQUENT
>34 KT GUSTS) IS LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD SNOW, HEAVY AT
TIMES, IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NW OF THE LOW. SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SNOW. THE LOW PULLS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NNW AS SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. A STRONG PUSH OF CAA IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND WIND PROBS FOR GALE CONDITIONS ARE HIGH (60-90%)
ON THE OCEAN N OF THE NC/VA BORDER AND MEDIUM (40-60%) IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. SINCE THIS IS STILL 48+ HOURS OUT AND TO AVOID
CONFUSION WITH OTHER ELEVATED WIND PERIODS PRECEDING THE PROBABLE
GALES, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCHES THIS CYCLE WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THEY WILL BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
ELEVATED NW WINDS LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
AND BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SEAS ARE 2-3 FT S AND 3-4 FT N THIS MORNING. 1-2 FT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAY THROUGH TODAY, INCREASING TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT WITH
N WIND SURGE. 2-4 FT SEAS ALSO PERIST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE TO OUR S WED NIGHT, SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN THE SRN
COASTAL WATERS. BY THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SEAS RANGE FROM 5-
7 FT S TO 4-6 FT N. ELEVATED WAVES/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH QUIETER SEA STATE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 1130 AM EST MONDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER AT
CARTERSVILLE, RICHMOND-WESTHAM, AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS, AND ALSO FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT FARMVILLE, MATTOAX, AND MATOACA. WARNINGS
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE AND THE
NOTTOWAY RIVER NEAR RAWLINGS/STONY CREEK/SEBRELL. THESE POINTS
WILL SEE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/AKQ FOR THE LATEST
SITE-SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-075>078-082-083-
085-509>522.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ084-086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR VAZ060-065>067-079>081.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ638.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
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